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Crisis, what crisis? – politicalbetting.com
Crisis, what crisis? – politicalbetting.com
77% of Britons say they will not be able to afford expected increases to their energy bills without cutting other spending, if they can afford it at allThis rises to 85% among households earning less than £20,000 a yearhttps://t.co/cMWNNEme5m pic.twitter.com/lDEX8IA76a
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1.12 Liz Truss 89%
9.4 Rishi Sunak 11%
Next Conservative leader
1.11 Liz Truss 90%
9.8 Rishi Sunak 10%
Liz needs to attach some numbers to her planned policy changes like suspending the green levy, reversing the NI rise and so on.
These people are as bad, if not worse, than the far left who couldn’t give a hoot about property rights.
Pandering to these callous nutters on either fringe is a disaster for the country.
https://www.brunel.ac.uk/news-and-events/news/articles/-Head-mounted-device-allows-deaf-cyclists-to-'feel'-surrounding-traffic
I’ve just emailed him, giving him my support and offering a few suggestions. I’m somewhat doubtful it’ll make it into a viable commercial product (pretty niche, fairly small potential market - deaf cyclists who don’t wear helmets) but it would be great if it does. Even better if he can integrate it into a helmet, which looks technically feasible from where I’m standing.
Breeders in Britain are unable to export their pedigree cattle, sheep and pigs to the EU because no one has built any border control posts where vets can check the animals before they enter the single market.
No private company in France has been prepared so far to invest the millions of euros needed to build a facility, bringing British exports to the European mainland to a halt since Brexit.
Now the National Farmers’ Union (NFU) is planning to ask farmers if they will help fund the facility themselves. Meanwhile, some breeders say they have only months left before shutting down their export operations, while others are relocating to the EU.
- “…makes me doubt the wisdom of laying a Labour majority at the next general election.”
Lab Maj is currently 7/2, which looks like amazingly poor value to me, and an obvious LAY. I am, of course, open to counter arguments, but it appears to me that there are only two routes to Lab Maj:
A. Labour landslide in England (45%+), or
B. strong Labour recovery in Scotland (35%+)
Anybody familiar with the polling data will know that both A and B look profoundly unlikely. On a good day English Labour are hovering around the 40% mark and Scottish Labour around the 20% mark. Good, but no cigars.
Of course TSE is correct that an economic catastrophe makes A more likely, but I remain skeptical for the simple reason that so much has already gone catastrophically wrong for Cameron, May and The Oaf and yet they are still polling quite decent numbers in the low to mid 30s. If the electorate had any gumption at all the Tories would already be in the teens, or worse.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/aug/05/inflation-british-politics-recession-bank-of-england
Why? Because China will not grow stronger forever, and the USA + allies might be at their weakest right now
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-coming-war-over-taiwan-11659614417
As far as I can see, Labour have only reached 45% on one occasion since the 2019 GE:
Survation, 6 July 2022:
Lab 45%
Con 31%
LD 11%
SNP 5%
Grn 3%
Ref 2%
oth 5%
The Tories have polled 45%+ on 50 - yes, fifty - occasions. Peaking at 55%. Admittedly further back in time, but indicative of the huge Tory lean in English society.
It’s all about the blame game now. PM Truss is gonna blame absolutely everyone but her own government. She might just get away with it.
- “One in five UK households will be left with no savings at all by 2024. “
One of the biggest tragedies of modern society is that we ditched thrift. Consumerism will be the death of us. Quite literally.
Schools must teach basic financial survival skills to the next generations. Starting with the importance of building up a strong buffer.
- “And yet look at the Thursday poll that showed that, in a match-up of Starmer v Truss, it is Truss who is ahead by two points. Labour is in front in other surveys, of course, but given this climate it should be out of sight.”
This is the killer point: Starmer is a total dud. Any half-competent Leader of Her Majesty’s Opposition ought to be smashing any and all named Con leaders off the field at this point in proceedings.
Mike Smithson is a huge fan of the Leader stats, and with good reason. They have a great track record of being better prediction tools than headline VI.
- “I asked Albrecht Ritschl, professor of economic history at the LSE, what single move the UK government could make to alleviate the pain. “Suspend Brexit for 20 years,” came the reply. He knows that’s not going to happen. But he explains that today’s crisis is not one of demand, but of supply: there’s just not enough stuff to meet demand, thanks in part to the post-Covid blockages in the global supply chain. In Britain, that’s exacerbated because we can no longer import European goods as freely or as cheaply as before.”
England and the English economy is not going to recover until they admit the horrific unforced error they have committed. I confidently predict that they won’t, and therefore can’t.
- “That decade brought a surge in political violence and a rise in support for the racist far right, in the form of the National Front. Under Boris Johnson, the Conservative party has shifted towards a nationalist populism that Truss seems unlikely to jettison. That creed is already of an ugly hue, but it could darken – especially when winter comes.”
The Conservatives are now a meld of English Nationalists, Brexit Revolutionaries and far-right thinking. It will not end well.
There is only one antidote, and that is the counter-revolution, which is inevitable. It is just a matter of time.
Grotesque. Build a courthouse in Kurdistan. Try them all and, if the locals decide, execute them all. The kids are more troubling but I’m finding it hard to be anything but *meh*
“Is it time to bring home Britain’s Isis brides and their children?”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/65d2e6e0-0dae-11ed-a9bf-a27f3a730ce3?shareToken=8c1c576785f90bde7bf4c25863cf0297
Imagine a comprehensive sanctions regime on China, which makes absolutely everything for us.
Tax cuts for the rich increase inequality but do nothing for the economy,
The Tories look after Jack. And Jack’s alright.
The problem for the Tories comes when Jack’s not alright. Rioters burning SUVs might be an example of such a scenario.
China is probably going to make a move on Taiwan. The question is more: will this be a blockade or outright invasion?
I really hope the West is using the last few years/months, before this happens, to diversify our supply of chips
I think any case for repatriation would have to be based on utter repentance and evidence they were groomed as children. Then, there would need to be an 18 month - 2 year programme of deradicalisation upon arrival too, and maybe regular social services/police check-ins for years. All of which would cost but might be the right to thing to do.
Otherwise they made their bed.
A friend of mine has interviewed Begum in that camp. He’s also full of this bleeding heart drivel. “Bring them home, she was groomed” etc etc
When I suggest the locals, Syrians, Yazidis, Kurds, should instead put her on trial, he goes quiet. Because he knows they would execute her. So be it
Grooming's a serious thing, and shouldn't be taken lightly. It can be hard to tell if someone (usually but not always a man) is a good egg or someone of a nefarious nature.
However, if that man or woman belongs to a group that's been top of the news for a year and more, and said group is notorious for crucifying children, industrial scale rape, genocide, and burning prisoners alive, and you *then* choose to fly a thousand miles to join it then I have as much sympathy as I do for someone condemned for joining the Nazis in 1945.
The Conservatives pumping GBP1.7 billion (USD2.3 billion) into one particular sect within the industry is hardly a level playing field.
https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/UK-government-earmarks-funds-for-progressing-nucle
There are hundreds of other examples of the Tories mucking about with the energy market. “Free” is something that it is definitely not.
https://twitter.com/hayward_katy/status/1555826389592449030?s=20&t=LkqL6Te6B5DRdXXLl1igLg
It’s a nonsense of course. But we’ve had a long time in this country of this rot, most appallingly exemplified by the Quad during the Coalition years. It’s often said you don’t know a leader’s true legacy until 20 years after they’re gone. Here’s to hoping theirs remains austerity and Brexit and not something far far worse.
China, on the other hand, has built its whole economy on manufacturing and exporting to the world. The risk to it of getting into a conflict, is much more serious. While it would be impossible to sanction China in the same way as we have sanctioned Russia, we could definitely make life very difficult for them.
Reign of Terror 1793-94
English Revolution 2016-20
Frost’s Reign of Terror ?
Can we all chip in to get @Leon some therapy please?
This is the blame game in action: it’s their* fault.
(*insert scapegoat du jour)
(*Poland and the Baltics being possibly the only exceptions.)
People voted Conservative in 2019 to Get Brexit Done and make it go away, so we could move on.
They were sick of hearing about it. They don't want to "sustain the revolt". They want domestic public services and the economy fixed.
If voters sense that (and Labour are smart) then they will start to vote Labour the other way to make it go away again.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/alex-massie-rishi-sunak-and-liz-truss-are-living-in-another-world-hn5mbl3pd
https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.head-to-head-how-do-the-f1-team-mates-stack-up-against-each-other-at-the.3e0iDJk1s9OSGWeJ3FIeri.html
Mercedes benefiting from a combination of a great drivers and excellent reliability.
Just as they teach safe sex, responsible parenting and arithmetic.
That doesn't mean everyone listens.
Appropriately no. 50,000 was a pun on Ishmael and Hagar.
Was wondering if haptics could be a solution re the cycling where some proximity sensor would relay to haptics in a vest/jacket which you would feel indicating where the vehicle or person is coming from and could even indicate distance as strength of vibration gets stronger or quicker the nearer they are?
Lab+LD+Green comfortably outpaces the Tories. Not every time, but much more often than not. Were it not for FPTP we would have sensible European-style politics.
Someone should write a thread header about it.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/08/06/miserable-truth-leaders-dont-want-us-have-cheap-energy/
“No, we are in this mess because, for most of the twenty-first century, we have ignored economic reality in pursuit of theatrical decarbonisation. Actually, no, that understates our foolishness. Decarbonisation will happen eventually, as alternative energy sources become cheaper than fossil fuels. It is proper for governments to seek to speed that process up. But this goes well beyond emitting less CO2. Our intellectual and cultural leaders – TV producers, novelists, bishops, the lot – see fuel consumption itself as a problem. What they want is not green growth, but less growth.
…
But raising the price of energy is not something we can do in isolation. When power becomes more expensive, so does everything else. Fuel is not simply one among many commodities; it is the enabler of exchange, the motor of efficiency, the vector of economic growth.
…
When did you last hear a politician admit as much? When did you hear any public figure extol cheap energy as an agent of poverty alleviation? When did you hear any historian describe how coal and later oil liberated the mass of humanity from back-breaking drudgery and led to the elimination of slavery?”
I thought part of the rise in national insurance costs was to assist with care costs. How does Ms Truss propose to deal with those?
1) Military power tends to lag economic power
2) They still have plenty more catch-up growth to do relative to the US
3) The rest of the world (especially India) is also growing, which makes US sanctions less effective
4) They're increasing their ability to make stuff they're currently relying on Taiwan for
The real question about what they'll do involves domestic Chinese politics, which I don't think anyone here knows about.
1) shut your eyes really tight
2) sing "la la la la la"
Not sure what the teachers think of these plans in the article but as a lay man they seem good to me.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/aug/07/rishi-sunak-vows-to-end-low-earning-degrees-in-post-16-education-shake-up
Whether they can actually effect meaningful reform, is of course a question left to the reader.
In response to Hannan, the view that growth is bad in itself is still only held by a small minority. A much larger group feels that the problem of avoiding rising climate-changing emissions as a result of growth is difficult, so their position is "growth is only OK if..." Hannan's view, as I understand it, is that growth is fine regardless, and we can leave it to the market to sort out decarbonisation sometime. That, too, is a minority view, because it's evident that the niterest of the individual consumer or producer doesn't necessarily coincide with the national interest.
Moreover, he just doesn't appreciate how much some children really hate maths. Getting them to resit GCSE when they've failed it is hard enough. Force them to do it for no reason at all and he will literally be dangling from a lamp post.
Giving charge of technical qualifications to the professional bodies is a much smarter idea, but will never happen unless you abolish OFQUAL and the DfE who will refuse to hand over control. Admittedly,if he did that it would be a tremendous boost to education.
Universities, just ill-informed bullshit based on snobbery, bit like the sort of stuff we see round here too often.
CPD for teachers, again, nonsense. The key thing is to keep them in the classroom not obsess about how shit they are,which they mostly aren't. In any case, it's going to be unattainable as his government is in the process of shutting the routes for teacher training which is the key source of CPD.
Red meat to the loons. He was my choice ahead of Truss because he appeared sane and with at least a shaky grasp of reality. I'm rapidly coming to the conclusion that neither's fit for office.
so when they said we will have a “Festival of Brexit”, what they meant was a “Recession”
https://twitter.com/kingstonwrites/status/1555847893118066688
Brexit is a flop, and the voters know it. So why can’t Labour call for a closer bond with Europe? | Roy Hattersley https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/31/now-voters-know-we-cant-make-brexit-work-labour-must-call-for-closer-bond-with-europe
The fundamentals still hold. China attacks Taiwan and their high tech assembly industry collapses as the only source of these chips is Taiwan.
And then the West seizes up as they are reliant on the flow of those chips too.
Which to be fair is par for the course with politicians when it comes to education.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/aug/07/zombie-government-more-than-half-of-departments-delay-key-decisions
A programme to lay out to who is to blame for this disaster whilst not doing anything about it will not work. People in deep shit don't want to know who to blame that isn't the government, they just want rescue.
And the Tories won't rescue them. Because deep down this party no longer gives a rat fuck.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2022/08/06/why-believe-liz-truss-should-prime-minister/
Sunak set a dangerous precedent in having the government effectively pay for the first round of these increases but this was (a) unrepeatable and (b) a one off leaving us fully exposed to the increases next year. The only way of avoiding that would be a reduction in the global energy prices which is possible but far from certain.
Most peoples response to this will be to demand more wages resulting in another sprial of inflation and public sector strikes. So what does a Truss government do?
I think that green levies and VAT on fuel do indeed have to go. We are making a very bad situation worse for ourselves. It is unnecessary. Their suspension will be another suspended fuel duty escalator if you can remember that. I think this will be prioritised over CT tax cuts.
We absolutely need to get on with fracking and doing what we can to squeeze more gas out of the north sea.
We do indeed need to get on with insulation, even more wind, solar and tidal. Not only do all these help with balance of payments, it also makes us much less vulnerable to international energy markets. They should be branded as making Britain secure and they will help.
This fits with polling of the wider public. YouGov finds Con voters prefer Truss as PM by 39-30, Lib Dem voters prefer Sunak by 51-9. He wins Remainers 37-15, she wins Leavers 38-24. He wins ABC1s, she wins C2DEs. He wins London and the South, she pulls it back as you go north.
In short, the Tories think they're voting on policy and personality. But what they're actually doing is choosing between someone who appeals more to their new, Leave, working-class vote (but is vulnerable to Lib Dems in the South)...
...vs someone who appeals more to their old, Southern, middle-class vote (but is vulnerable to Labour in the North). In other words, between the Cameron version of their electoral coalition and the Johnson one.
Oh wait, he’s on holiday too!
India will do it only when they get something from it. In their case, it's cash. For China, it's prestige , but going too fast guarantees povery for those who haven't the money. The green levy is sacrosanct, the screams of rage from the well-off middle class would be hyperbolic if it were scrapped or tampered with. Cue nailing heads to anything which would bugger up normal life for other people. Can I suggest setting yourself on fire in Beijing? Just a thought.
The main problem is Governments tend to look only to the next election. Basic short-termism. Gimmicks over practicality. Large sums spent on beneifits only a decade ahead means time spent in opposition. Nuclear is carbon-neutral even if the gives the greens the vapours. They'd rather virtue-signal while they have the chance.
A pox on all their houses.
Gas? This *was* cheap. But the free market "Dash for Gas" allowed scumbags like Norweb build gas-fired power stations to burn North Sea reserves in a decade. Which makes us reliant on imported gas from dodgy places which isn't cheao.
Coal? We *could* have invested in CCS and kept places like Drax open, burning domestic coal and pumping the emissions underground. But no, coal miners are communists.
Nuclear? The chance for a renaissance of British nuclear was killed by Nick Clegg in 2010. So what we have is now decades late and absurdly expensive.
Which leaves renewables. We *could* have been leading on this. We have a lot of wind turbines - built by countries like Germany - and increasingly solar. With absurd rigged transmission prices to make it expensive despite us having so much available. Put solar and a battery on every new build for the last decade and that would have made a real difference.
So what is Hannanananan drooling on about?
https://www.thenational.scot/news/20606051.pictures-nicola-sturgeon-visits-glasgows-govanhill-international-festival/
So they wanted a big festival to celebrate all we had gained and instead find only how much we have lost. Which clearly isn't their fault for fucking things up, its my fault for supporting a version of Brexit which wasn't mental and now becoming a turncoat traitor for calling them out.
Energy bills will be higher than wages and UC payments. Literally impossible to pay. And for millions of others who work the bills will take us such a proportion of money that they go way beyond "just put a jumper on".
The challenge right now is to set aside the long term questions and focus on the micro - how to get people though this winter. It simply doesn't matter what the long term policy debates are, people are going to suffer grinding poverty in a few months unless this shitbox party you support does something.
Expanded AI in classrooms has to be good, right? Whatever it is supposed to mean.
I assume that includes the Brexit they campaigned so heavily for...
Of course, 40 k or 50 k posts are a significant achievement & a source of pride.
But, also, I genuinely wonder how such posters find the time.
Also, I do find it curious that so many of the ultra-prolific posters are apparently lawyers.
I mean, I know lawyers' time is valuable, because lawyers repeatedly tell me so, before telling me their rates