Very off topic: One more thing for all of you to worry about: "The family of a man who escaped the grip of an 18-foot python when a quick-thinking police officer shot the snake in the head say the horrifying ordeal began when the man’s snake suddenly turned on him.
David Aaronovitch @DAaronovitch · 1h At a purely personal level I could never vote for any party or individual that endorsed the shameful Rwanda deportation policy. Or even have any respect for anyone who did.
In any case we’ll know soon who’ll be the next PM. If, by the second week of August, Truss still has a clear lead in member polling then I think she is likely to end up winning. But if Sunak has caught up or is within a few points by then I think he will. And that’s where my money is at the moment, his odds seem significantly more attractive than hers.
I topped up earlier. Sunak is the value bet at moment.
I don't know. The fundamentals for Truss seem pretty strong.
1. Many members seem to be mad about Johnson being abandoned. Truss is their standard bearer.
2. Truss is definitely the candidate for people who want to feel good about Brexit. She signed lovely trade deals and she is kicking European Arse on the Northern Ireland Protocol.
3. Truss stands for tax cuts. Sunak is the Chancellor who put taxes up to a 74 year high.
I know that, in principle, a Conservative leadership candidate promising to borrow an extra £35bn a year during an inflation crisis should have invalidated themselves from the contest at an early stage, but there's a populist mood on the prowl where audacious promises beats boring accountancy.
And now, on top of that, Truss is polling better with the general public too.
She might even survive an affair with Dominic Grieve.
Betting post - this could be massive. Luntz says Trump polling is falling 1% or 2% every week. Partisan and non partisan polling.
Power & Politics @PnPCBC "It's going to send shudders across the Trump world," said long-time pollster and political strategist Frank Luntz of Steve Bannon's conviction for contempt of Congress. "Bannon knows a lot...about the things that really happened in the lead up to the 6th of January."
In any case we’ll know soon who’ll be the next PM. If, by the second week of August, Truss still has a clear lead in member polling then I think she is likely to end up winning. But if Sunak has caught up or is within a few points by then I think he will. And that’s where my money is at the moment, his odds seem significantly more attractive than hers.
I topped up earlier. Sunak is the value bet at moment.
I don't know. The fundamentals for Truss seem pretty strong.
1. Many members seem to be mad about Johnson being abandoned. Truss is their standard bearer.
2. Truss is definitely the candidate for people who want to feel good about Brexit. She signed lovely trade deals and she is kicking European Arse on the Northern Ireland Protocol.
3. Truss stands for tax cuts. Sunak is the Chancellor who put taxes up to a 74 year high.
I know that, in principle, a Conservative leadership candidate promising to borrow an extra £35bn a year during an inflation crisis should have invalidated themselves from the contest at an early stage, but there's a populist mood on the prowl where audacious promises beats boring accountancy.
And now, on top of that, Truss is polling better with the general public too.
She might even survive an affair with Dominic Grieve.
All true, except the Grieve bit.
But a value bet is one where you think that the market has got the price a little bit wrong as OHG has said over the years. You can trade out later if you are right. I think Sunak at 3.25 is a value bet.
In any case we’ll know soon who’ll be the next PM. If, by the second week of August, Truss still has a clear lead in member polling then I think she is likely to end up winning. But if Sunak has caught up or is within a few points by then I think he will. And that’s where my money is at the moment, his odds seem significantly more attractive than hers.
I topped up earlier. Sunak is the value bet at moment.
I don't know. The fundamentals for Truss seem pretty strong.
1. Many members seem to be mad about Johnson being abandoned. Truss is their standard bearer.
2. Truss is definitely the candidate for people who want to feel good about Brexit. She signed lovely trade deals and she is kicking European Arse on the Northern Ireland Protocol.
3. Truss stands for tax cuts. Sunak is the Chancellor who put taxes up to a 74 year high.
I know that, in principle, a Conservative leadership candidate promising to borrow an extra £35bn a year during an inflation crisis should have invalidated themselves from the contest at an early stage, but there's a populist mood on the prowl where audacious promises beats boring accountancy.
And now, on top of that, Truss is polling better with the general public too.
She might even survive an affair with Dominic Grieve.
All true, except the Grieve bit.
But a value bet is one where you think that the market has got the price a little bit wrong as OHG has said over the years. You can trade out later if you are right. I think Sunak at 3.25 is a value bet.
Doesn't really matter who wins as far as I can see, once again the next election will leave me with the choice of voting for crap, crapper or crappest so I probably won't even bother. These days and this is from someone who has voted in every election till 2010, my reaction is you are all shite and no one is worth voting for and no one except the lib dems are worth stirring to vote against as they are no worse than the person you would have to vote in to keep them out. My prediction if this continues to be the case is we will see ever falling numbers of people voting over the next couple of decades till westminster elections are about as much voted for as council elections.
Anecdata: Talking to the guy who runs my gym today, his supplier has just quoted him £1,450 per month for a fixed-price gas and electricity 'deal' for his modern 4 bed detached house.
He was paying £192 pm on his last fix.
As he said: 'forget the leadership race, if they don't sort energy prices out there's going to be a bloody revolution'.
Is he running a jacuzzi 24/7 ?
Er, I doubt it. It's a big detached house and he's got 3 teenage children so I don't imagine they have been super careful until now. Obviously the fix is priced to protect the supplier and of course he's not taking it (he's just bought £500 of logs and plans to rely on the woodburner much more this winter). But it's indicative.
Mrs P's hairdresser said her (small) salon was being charged over £1000 pm variable for electric and gas.
This is going to hurt.
HMG should force a sharp reduction in the energy cap and slash fuel duty. Fund it from borrowing if necessary. Treat it as a national emergency, which it is.
How much energy in kWH is £17,4000 in a year. Just to get an idea of how many cups of tea this person is making.
A quick google search suggests about 100,000 kWH. So that's running about five kettles continuously for an entire year.
He needs to tell his kids to stop mining bitcoins.
Anecdata: Talking to the guy who runs my gym today, his supplier has just quoted him £1,450 per month for a fixed-price gas and electricity 'deal' for his modern 4 bed detached house.
He was paying £192 pm on his last fix.
As he said: 'forget the leadership race, if they don't sort energy prices out there's going to be a bloody revolution'.
Is he running a jacuzzi 24/7 ?
Er, I doubt it. It's a big detached house and he's got 3 teenage children so I don't imagine they have been super careful until now. Obviously the fix is priced to protect the supplier and of course he's not taking it (he's just bought £500 of logs and plans to rely on the woodburner much more this winter). But it's indicative.
Mrs P's hairdresser said her (small) salon was being charged over £1000 pm variable for electric and gas.
This is going to hurt.
HMG should force a sharp reduction in the energy cap and slash fuel duty. Fund it from borrowing if necessary. Treat it as a national emergency, which it is.
How much energy in kWH is £17,4000 in a year. Just to get an idea of how many cups of tea this person is making.
A quick google search suggests about 100,000 kWH. So that's running about five kettles continuously for an entire year.
He needs to tell his kids to stop mining bitcoins.
Anecdata: Talking to the guy who runs my gym today, his supplier has just quoted him £1,450 per month for a fixed-price gas and electricity 'deal' for his modern 4 bed detached house.
He was paying £192 pm on his last fix.
As he said: 'forget the leadership race, if they don't sort energy prices out there's going to be a bloody revolution'.
Is he running a jacuzzi 24/7 ?
Er, I doubt it. It's a big detached house and he's got 3 teenage children so I don't imagine they have been super careful until now. Obviously the fix is priced to protect the supplier and of course he's not taking it (he's just bought £500 of logs and plans to rely on the woodburner much more this winter). But it's indicative.
Mrs P's hairdresser said her (small) salon was being charged over £1000 pm variable for electric and gas.
This is going to hurt.
HMG should force a sharp reduction in the energy cap and slash fuel duty. Fund it from borrowing if necessary. Treat it as a national emergency, which it is.
How much energy in kWH is £17,4000 in a year. Just to get an idea of how many cups of tea this person is making.
A quick google search suggests about 100,000 kWH. So that's running about five kettles continuously for an entire year.
He needs to tell his kids to stop mining bitcoins.
Especially as they are now worthless.
Not exactly worthless. 1 bitcoin currently = $18,880
The Express has a new Comres showing 44 Lab 33 Con and Truss ahead of Starmer 38 37 as preferred PM, Sunak is 4 points behind Starmer. Thats all it says in the text but its +3 Tory +1 Lab from the poll earlier this week
Bet they hated publishing that poll. LOL
Express is under very different management these days, owned by the Mirror with a life long Labour supporting editor...I am sure the top brass there will be very pleased with it.
Anecdata: Talking to the guy who runs my gym today, his supplier has just quoted him £1,450 per month for a fixed-price gas and electricity 'deal' for his modern 4 bed detached house.
He was paying £192 pm on his last fix.
As he said: 'forget the leadership race, if they don't sort energy prices out there's going to be a bloody revolution'.
Is he running a jacuzzi 24/7 ?
Er, I doubt it. It's a big detached house and he's got 3 teenage children so I don't imagine they have been super careful until now. Obviously the fix is priced to protect the supplier and of course he's not taking it (he's just bought £500 of logs and plans to rely on the woodburner much more this winter). But it's indicative.
Mrs P's hairdresser said her (small) salon was being charged over £1000 pm variable for electric and gas.
This is going to hurt.
HMG should force a sharp reduction in the energy cap and slash fuel duty. Fund it from borrowing if necessary. Treat it as a national emergency, which it is.
How much energy in kWH is £17,4000 in a year. Just to get an idea of how many cups of tea this person is making.
A quick google search suggests about 100,000 kWH. So that's running about five kettles continuously for an entire year.
He needs to tell his kids to stop mining bitcoins.
Especially as they are now worthless.
Not exactly worthless. 1 bitcoin currently = $18,880
Anecdata: Talking to the guy who runs my gym today, his supplier has just quoted him £1,450 per month for a fixed-price gas and electricity 'deal' for his modern 4 bed detached house.
He was paying £192 pm on his last fix.
As he said: 'forget the leadership race, if they don't sort energy prices out there's going to be a bloody revolution'.
Is he running a jacuzzi 24/7 ?
Er, I doubt it. It's a big detached house and he's got 3 teenage children so I don't imagine they have been super careful until now. Obviously the fix is priced to protect the supplier and of course he's not taking it (he's just bought £500 of logs and plans to rely on the woodburner much more this winter). But it's indicative.
Mrs P's hairdresser said her (small) salon was being charged over £1000 pm variable for electric and gas.
This is going to hurt.
HMG should force a sharp reduction in the energy cap and slash fuel duty. Fund it from borrowing if necessary. Treat it as a national emergency, which it is.
How much energy in kWH is £17,4000 in a year. Just to get an idea of how many cups of tea this person is making.
A quick google search suggests about 100,000 kWH. So that's running about five kettles continuously for an entire year.
He needs to tell his kids to stop mining bitcoins.
Especially as they are now worthless.
Unfortunately not, the bitcoins mined in a day are worth about $20 million at current prices which makes it economical for someone to burn something like $10 million worth of electricity to mine them.
David Aaronovitch @DAaronovitch · 1h At a purely personal level I could never vote for any party or individual that endorsed the shameful Rwanda deportation policy. Or even have any respect for anyone who did.
How would he try to stop illegal migration?
Provide safe legal routes for refugees to come here.
David Aaronovitch @DAaronovitch · 1h At a purely personal level I could never vote for any party or individual that endorsed the shameful Rwanda deportation policy. Or even have any respect for anyone who did.
How would he try to stop illegal migration?
Did you see the report out this week on how useless the current government is with arrivals? It doesn't even fingerprint them all, and loses enormous numbers. Start with the basics. The Rwanda deportations are just capricious performative cruelty when the rest are just left to do what they like.
Anecdata: Talking to the guy who runs my gym today, his supplier has just quoted him £1,450 per month for a fixed-price gas and electricity 'deal' for his modern 4 bed detached house.
He was paying £192 pm on his last fix.
As he said: 'forget the leadership race, if they don't sort energy prices out there's going to be a bloody revolution'.
Is he running a jacuzzi 24/7 ?
Er, I doubt it. It's a big detached house and he's got 3 teenage children so I don't imagine they have been super careful until now. Obviously the fix is priced to protect the supplier and of course he's not taking it (he's just bought £500 of logs and plans to rely on the woodburner much more this winter). But it's indicative.
Mrs P's hairdresser said her (small) salon was being charged over £1000 pm variable for electric and gas.
This is going to hurt.
HMG should force a sharp reduction in the energy cap and slash fuel duty. Fund it from borrowing if necessary. Treat it as a national emergency, which it is.
How much energy in kWH is £17,4000 in a year. Just to get an idea of how many cups of tea this person is making.
A quick google search suggests about 100,000 kWH. So that's running about five kettles continuously for an entire year.
Several things here.
1 - The Ofgem cap has no impact on fixed price tariffs, as fixed price tariffs are not regulated by the Ofgem cap. They are taking the pee.
I pointed this out on PB in March, when I had been offered a fixed tariff 50% higher than the increased regulated price cap coming in in April. For me it was £2,800 vs £1,900.
2 - "Modern" in "modern 4 bedroom house" covers a multitude of sins. If it is before about 2012 (or even worse 2006) the Energy performance will be poor, due to the history of Building Regs.
3 - How does he use approx. 100,000 kWh per annum if the assumption is correct? That is a *hell* of a lot - is it a huge (ie 5000+ sqft) house? I'd say he perhaps needs to have a word with himself about the quality of his house, and his lifestyle.
But then the only thing for most people in the UK that gets them responding in Energy Efficiency terms is increased energy prices.
4 - In the circs, it's fairly obvious:
a - Stick with variable, and ignore the shyster offer. b - Use the money saved to deal with any problems with his house? c - Monthly readings or a smart meter, but keeping track of his account credit balance. d - Do the traditional energy saving things, which he should have done 10-20 years ago anyway.
5 - I don't agree with the "funding it from borrowing" thing wrt people with big dwellings they chose not to invest in, or run efficiently. Why the hell should we subsidise well off people with expensive houses?
If they qualify for help under our benefits system, then they will get the benefits.
In any case we’ll know soon who’ll be the next PM. If, by the second week of August, Truss still has a clear lead in member polling then I think she is likely to end up winning. But if Sunak has caught up or is within a few points by then I think he will. And that’s where my money is at the moment, his odds seem significantly more attractive than hers.
I topped up earlier. Sunak is the value bet at moment.
I don't know. The fundamentals for Truss seem pretty strong.
1. Many members seem to be mad about Johnson being abandoned. Truss is their standard bearer.
2. Truss is definitely the candidate for people who want to feel good about Brexit. She signed lovely trade deals and she is kicking European Arse on the Northern Ireland Protocol.
3. Truss stands for tax cuts. Sunak is the Chancellor who put taxes up to a 74 year high.
I know that, in principle, a Conservative leadership candidate promising to borrow an extra £35bn a year during an inflation crisis should have invalidated themselves from the contest at an early stage, but there's a populist mood on the prowl where audacious promises beats boring accountancy.
And now, on top of that, Truss is polling better with the general public too.
She might even survive an affair with Dominic Grieve.
She is however the highest risk candidate, and I’d expect some sort of a wobble before the end?
Anecdata: Talking to the guy who runs my gym today, his supplier has just quoted him £1,450 per month for a fixed-price gas and electricity 'deal' for his modern 4 bed detached house.
He was paying £192 pm on his last fix.
As he said: 'forget the leadership race, if they don't sort energy prices out there's going to be a bloody revolution'.
Is he running a jacuzzi 24/7 ?
Er, I doubt it. It's a big detached house and he's got 3 teenage children so I don't imagine they have been super careful until now. Obviously the fix is priced to protect the supplier and of course he's not taking it (he's just bought £500 of logs and plans to rely on the woodburner much more this winter). But it's indicative.
Mrs P's hairdresser said her (small) salon was being charged over £1000 pm variable for electric and gas.
This is going to hurt.
HMG should force a sharp reduction in the energy cap and slash fuel duty. Fund it from borrowing if necessary. Treat it as a national emergency, which it is.
How much energy in kWH is £17,4000 in a year. Just to get an idea of how many cups of tea this person is making.
A quick google search suggests about 100,000 kWH. So that's running about five kettles continuously for an entire year.
That's 5.7p a kWH. Can I have some of that?
No, it's 20p a kWH, which isn't too far off the cap.
The question remains. What on earth is he doing to justify a bill or estimate that large.
Electric cap is 28p ish. Gas is around 7p. Both per kWh.
Anecdata: Talking to the guy who runs my gym today, his supplier has just quoted him £1,450 per month for a fixed-price gas and electricity 'deal' for his modern 4 bed detached house.
He was paying £192 pm on his last fix.
As he said: 'forget the leadership race, if they don't sort energy prices out there's going to be a bloody revolution'.
Is he running a jacuzzi 24/7 ?
Er, I doubt it. It's a big detached house and he's got 3 teenage children so I don't imagine they have been super careful until now. Obviously the fix is priced to protect the supplier and of course he's not taking it (he's just bought £500 of logs and plans to rely on the woodburner much more this winter). But it's indicative.
Mrs P's hairdresser said her (small) salon was being charged over £1000 pm variable for electric and gas.
This is going to hurt.
HMG should force a sharp reduction in the energy cap and slash fuel duty. Fund it from borrowing if necessary. Treat it as a national emergency, which it is.
How much energy in kWH is £17,4000 in a year. Just to get an idea of how many cups of tea this person is making.
A quick google search suggests about 100,000 kWH. So that's running about five kettles continuously for an entire year.
Several things here.
1 - The Ofgem cap has no impact on fixed price tariffs, as fixed price tariffs are not regulated by the Ofgem cap. They are taking the pee.
I pointed this out on PB in March, when I had been offered a fixed tariff 50% higher than the increased regulated price cap coming in in April. For me it was £2,800 vs £1,900.
2 - "Modern" in "modern 4 bedroom house" covers a multitude of sins. If it is before about 2012 (or even worse 2006) the Energy performance will be poor, due to the history of Building Regs.
3 - How does he use approx. 100,000 kWh per annum if the assumption is correct? That is a *hell* of a lot - is it a huge (ie 5000+ sqft) house? I'd say he perhaps needs to have a word with himself about the quality of his house, and his lifestyle.
But then the only thing for most people in the UK that gets them responding in Energy Efficiency terms is increased energy prices.
4 - In the circs, it's fairly obvious:
a - Stick with variable, and ignore the shyster offer. b - Use the money saved to deal with any problems with his house? c - Monthly readings or a smart meter, but keeping track of his account credit balance. d - Do the traditional energy saving things, which he should have done 10-20 years ago anyway.
5 - I don't agree with the "funding it from borrowing" thing wrt people with big dwellings they chose not to invest in, or run efficiently. Why the hell should we subsidise well off people with expensive houses?
If they qualify for help under our benefits system, then they will get the benefits.
I'm far more sympathetic towards small business.
Remember not everyone has your specialist knowledge, so may not realise their home needs more insulation or other maintenance. I'm not really sure how to fix this; it is not as if fuel bills can tells consumers what next door is paying. Smart meters are supposed to help but I'm not really sure what practical use they are, aside from saving companies the cost of employing meter readers.
ETA not talking about this specific case but with the general problem of people facing high fuel bills without knowing what they can do about it.
In any case we’ll know soon who’ll be the next PM. If, by the second week of August, Truss still has a clear lead in member polling then I think she is likely to end up winning. But if Sunak has caught up or is within a few points by then I think he will. And that’s where my money is at the moment, his odds seem significantly more attractive than hers.
I topped up earlier. Sunak is the value bet at moment.
I don't know. The fundamentals for Truss seem pretty strong.
1. Many members seem to be mad about Johnson being abandoned. Truss is their standard bearer.
2. Truss is definitely the candidate for people who want to feel good about Brexit. She signed lovely trade deals and she is kicking European Arse on the Northern Ireland Protocol.
3. Truss stands for tax cuts. Sunak is the Chancellor who put taxes up to a 74 year high.
I know that, in principle, a Conservative leadership candidate promising to borrow an extra £35bn a year during an inflation crisis should have invalidated themselves from the contest at an early stage, but there's a populist mood on the prowl where audacious promises beats boring accountancy.
And now, on top of that, Truss is polling better with the general public too.
She might even survive an affair with Dominic Grieve.
She is however the highest risk candidate, and I’d expect some sort of a wobble before the end?
If there is to be a Truss wobble, perhaps it will come at the start. There are a number of hustings and debates lined up, and one imagines by the end Rishi and Liz will be able to parrot each other's lines. Likewise, Truss's presentation manner, which is supposed to be her weakness, should improve through the process.
Anecdata: Talking to the guy who runs my gym today, his supplier has just quoted him £1,450 per month for a fixed-price gas and electricity 'deal' for his modern 4 bed detached house.
He was paying £192 pm on his last fix.
As he said: 'forget the leadership race, if they don't sort energy prices out there's going to be a bloody revolution'.
Is he running a jacuzzi 24/7 ?
Er, I doubt it. It's a big detached house and he's got 3 teenage children so I don't imagine they have been super careful until now. Obviously the fix is priced to protect the supplier and of course he's not taking it (he's just bought £500 of logs and plans to rely on the woodburner much more this winter). But it's indicative.
Mrs P's hairdresser said her (small) salon was being charged over £1000 pm variable for electric and gas.
This is going to hurt.
HMG should force a sharp reduction in the energy cap and slash fuel duty. Fund it from borrowing if necessary. Treat it as a national emergency, which it is.
How much energy in kWH is £17,4000 in a year. Just to get an idea of how many cups of tea this person is making.
A quick google search suggests about 100,000 kWH. So that's running about five kettles continuously for an entire year.
Several things here.
1 - The Ofgem cap has no impact on fixed price tariffs, as fixed price tariffs are not regulated by the Ofgem cap. They are taking the pee.
I pointed this out on PB in March, when I had been offered a fixed tariff 50% higher than the increased regulated price cap coming in in April. For me it was £2,800 vs £1,900.
2 - "Modern" in "modern 4 bedroom house" covers a multitude of sins. If it is before about 2012 (or even worse 2006) the Energy performance will be poor, due to the history of Building Regs.
3 - How does he use approx. 100,000 kWh per annum if the assumption is correct? That is a *hell* of a lot - is it a huge (ie 5000+ sqft) house? I'd say he perhaps needs to have a word with himself about the quality of his house, and his lifestyle.
But then the only thing for most people in the UK that gets them responding in Energy Efficiency terms is increased energy prices.
4 - In the circs, it's fairly obvious:
a - Stick with variable, and ignore the shyster offer. b - Use the money saved to deal with any problems with his house? c - Monthly readings or a smart meter, but keeping track of his account credit balance. d - Do the traditional energy saving things, which he should have done 10-20 years ago anyway.
5 - I don't agree with the "funding it from borrowing" thing wrt people with big dwellings they chose not to invest in, or run efficiently. Why the hell should we subsidise well off people with expensive houses?
If they qualify for help under our benefits system, then they will get the benefits.
I'm far more sympathetic towards small business.
Remember not everyone has your specialist knowledge, so may not realise their home needs more insulation or other maintenance. I'm not really sure how to fix this; it is not as if fuel bills can tells consumers what next door is paying. Smart meters are supposed to help but I'm not really sure what practical use they are, aside from saving companies the cost of employing meter readers.
ETA not talking about this specific case but with the general problem of people facing high fuel bills without knowing what they can do about it.
Appreciate the reply.
I'll go a little way with that, but this is not really specialist, except perhaps for the wrinkles of the price cap - they have been running Public Information films on most of this for 40 years. And every house sale by law has an EPC certificate with estimates of energy and bills for about 15 years now - UK is very good on that. Given the last 25 years of eco-awareness, it is also in the culture.
I think what is going on is that people who thought they were above needing to worry about any of it are being mugged by reality.
The EPCs tell you what next door is like - all available for free on a public register since 2010 or so.
On Smart meters, they do seem to have a big impact. Seeing the energy used ticking up £££ hour by hour through the day is a good tool. Mine goes in on Monday. I have a couple of Ts who have just had them installed, and they are being much more careful. But then I try and educate all my Ts about energy efficiency as a matter of course.
Comments
First responders in Upper Macungie Township in Pennsylvania responded to a call shortly after 2 p.m. on Wednesday about a person in cardiac arrest, only to find an even more frightening scene: a young man lying in his house with an 18-foot-long reticulated python coiled around his throat."
source: https://www.thedailybeast.com/how-cops-in-upper-macungie-township-pennsylvania-rescued-man-with-18-ft-snake-wrapped-around-his-throat
The young man is an "experienced handler" - and, for six years, a snake rescuer. He adopts snakes that previous owners can't handle, or won't.
Not my kind of pet.
1. Many members seem to be mad about Johnson being abandoned. Truss is their standard bearer.
2. Truss is definitely the candidate for people who want to feel good about Brexit. She signed lovely trade deals and she is kicking European Arse on the Northern Ireland Protocol.
3. Truss stands for tax cuts. Sunak is the Chancellor who put taxes up to a 74 year high.
I know that, in principle, a Conservative leadership candidate promising to borrow an extra £35bn a year during an inflation crisis should have invalidated themselves from the contest at an early stage, but there's a populist mood on the prowl where audacious promises beats boring accountancy.
And now, on top of that, Truss is polling better with the general public too.
She might even survive an affair with Dominic Grieve.
Power & Politics
@PnPCBC
"It's going to send shudders across the Trump world," said long-time pollster and political strategist Frank Luntz of Steve Bannon's conviction for contempt of Congress. "Bannon knows a lot...about the things that really happened in the lead up to the 6th of January."
https://twitter.com/PnPCBC/status/1550597437487779841
===
Edit: polling bit is 2mins in
But a value bet is one where you think that the market has got the price a little bit wrong as OHG has said over the years. You can trade out later if you are right. I think Sunak at 3.25 is a value bet.
https://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk
Tickets for Lionesses sell for over £1,000 as Euros fever takes hold
The record TV audience for a women’s football match in the UK could be broken as England progress
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/england-lionesses-euro-2022-semi-final-tickets-for-sale-b1014123.html
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-62275326
https://www.channel4.com/news/poor-response-from-home-office-over-migrant-crossings-report-finds
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1550586379859640320?t=vwiiwrSlVDK1zbbWokWMoA&s=19
1.45 Liz Truss 69%
3.2 Rishi Sunak 31%
Next Conservative leader
1.44 Liz Truss 69%
3.2 Rishi Sunak 31%
ETA bookmakers' best prices:-
4/9 = 1.44 Liz Truss 888 and SBK
9/4 = 3.25 Rishi Sunak Bet365, Boylesports
1 - The Ofgem cap has no impact on fixed price tariffs, as fixed price tariffs are not regulated by the Ofgem cap. They are taking the pee.
I pointed this out on PB in March, when I had been offered a fixed tariff 50% higher than the increased regulated price cap coming in in April. For me it was £2,800 vs £1,900.
2 - "Modern" in "modern 4 bedroom house" covers a multitude of sins. If it is before about 2012 (or even worse 2006) the Energy performance will be poor, due to the history of Building Regs.
3 - How does he use approx. 100,000 kWh per annum if the assumption is correct? That is a *hell* of a lot - is it a huge (ie 5000+ sqft) house? I'd say he perhaps needs to have a word with himself about the quality of his house, and his lifestyle.
But then the only thing for most people in the UK that gets them responding in Energy Efficiency terms is increased energy prices.
4 - In the circs, it's fairly obvious:
a - Stick with variable, and ignore the shyster offer.
b - Use the money saved to deal with any problems with his house?
c - Monthly readings or a smart meter, but keeping track of his account credit balance.
d - Do the traditional energy saving things, which he should have done 10-20 years ago anyway.
5 - I don't agree with the "funding it from borrowing" thing wrt people with big dwellings they chose not to invest in, or run efficiently. Why the hell should we subsidise well off people with expensive houses?
If they qualify for help under our benefits system, then they will get the benefits.
I'm far more sympathetic towards small business.
ETA not talking about this specific case but with the general problem of people facing high fuel bills without knowing what they can do about it.
Sorry, couldn't help but bag the first
I'll go a little way with that, but this is not really specialist, except perhaps for the wrinkles of the price cap - they have been running Public Information films on most of this for 40 years. And every house sale by law has an EPC certificate with estimates of energy and bills for about 15 years now - UK is very good on that. Given the last 25 years of eco-awareness, it is also in the culture.
I think what is going on is that people who thought they were above needing to worry about any of it are being mugged by reality.
The EPCs tell you what next door is like - all available for free on a public register since 2010 or so.
On Smart meters, they do seem to have a big impact. Seeing the energy used ticking up £££ hour by hour through the day is a good tool. Mine goes in on Monday. I have a couple of Ts who have just had them installed, and they are being much more careful. But then I try and educate all my Ts about energy efficiency as a matter of course.