Categories
Today will be Johnson’s last PMQs as PM – politicalbetting.com
Today will be Johnson’s last PMQs as PM – politicalbetting.com
No doubt over the next year or so we are going to see a series of academic and other studies on the downfall of Johnson who, of course, at GE2019 had the best Tory general election outcome since the Thatcher era.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Barring a major shock, it seems either we get Sunak who has 5000 reasons to be next PM, or we get Truss who will be a big improvement on Boris.
Win/win either way. I wonder how many others who wanted Boris gone now look at the alternatives who might replace him and thinks the same?
Lower tax rates 'grow the pie' and equal more tax revenues so repay any borrowing to fund that.
Poor old FrankBooth is talking to himself.
Thatcher - Queen bee of the Union-destroyers
Major - the hiccup
Blair - Ya stoater!
Brown - Wipeout man
Cameron - 28% became 45%
May - Broken Britain
The Oaf - Liar, cheat, mountebank, and twenty more negative attributes
Sunak, Mordaunt, Truss - Whoever wins will certainly not strengthen the Union: they don’t know how to.
The Opinium figures out ioday compare to a forced choice in 6 July opinium of 49 to 30 Starmer vs Johnson government on a VI lead of 5 so are suggestive of a limited bounceback whomever is selected. A forced choice lead of 11 for example feels about level pegging on VI as most (but by no means all) others break to Starmer/Labour
Liz wins the leadership, but under the ERG's unshakeable belief that she will rule as their vassal.
To cement her hard-Brexit credentials (Remainer, Lib Dem past etc.) Liz unilaterally scraps Boris's oven-ready deal.
A trade war with the EU ensues.
Amid the social and economic mayhem, public support for Brexit collapses.
Liz is ousted. Hunt is brought in as the 'healing' alternative.
The ERG resign en masse, causing a string of by-elections.
Hunt calls a snap GE on a 'Britain Needs Stability' ticket.
Tories reduced to seventy seats.
2 Liz Truss 50%
2.6 Rishi Sunak 38%
8.6 Penny Mordaunt 12%
550 Keir Starmer
600 Dominic Raab
Next Conservative leader
1.98 Liz Truss 51%
2.64 Rishi Sunak 38%
8.4 Penny Mordaunt 12%
To be in final two
1.01 Rishi Sunak 99%
1.23 Liz Truss 81%
4.5 Penny Mordaunt 22%
That's a thought of course; former Prime Minister's have held seats in other peoples cabinets in the past!
It does seem PM was just linking to the DT article which used those words and put them as a header . It wasn’t her own words.
Regardless I think it would be a miracle for her to get through . Shame as we won’t be seeing more of her Bond Money Penny looks and have to make do with Truss’s Maggie impression .
But no mention of Scotland or N Ireland?!
There really isn't.
Glad you made it through
For me, the nastiest bit was the end. The early evening. The worst of the heat was past but it seemed to stay ~35C in Camden long into the gloaming. And it got stickier
Ugh
It was bliss to wake up to 21C and a fresh mild breeze. No doubt we shall all be moaning about the coolness very soon
But not yet. Not yet
1) How they will make anyone earning less than £30,000 feel better off
2) Actually raise more revenue, companies aren't going to suddenly expand in the UK because we are already running at full employment....
The idea is simply daft... Now cut fuel duty (which isn't in Truss's plans) and I might agree that it's worthwhile but Employee / Employer NI and Corporation Tax aren't things that need cutting.
Heck the Corporation tax cut will reduce investment not increase it because Companies will be aiming to extract profit ASAP before the inevitable occurs.
And given that we have got to the point where people who can manage a deposit have bought a home what we are left with is finding another prop now it's no longer possible for Northern Rock and co to offer 110% mortgages.
Sunak v Truss; Truss implodes under scrutiny. Sunak wins the membership 63:37.
Sunak puts together a sensible Cabinet of capable talent. Boris chunters from the backbenchers for a bit, but decides life outside Westminster is for him and resigns his seat. The ERG are told to STFU as they were the ones pushing Truss.
Inflation peaks at 12.3%, but reduces very quickly, back to 3.6% next spring. The Government toughs it out at 5% on pay rises, saying if inflation stays high, there will be a supplementary pay rise in the spring; it won't be needed.
Putin dies in mysterious circumstances; Russian troops are pulled out of Ukraine except Crimea. Oil and food prices stabilise.
Conservative polling fortunes inch back up to 36%. Labour are seen to have no answers and inch back down to 36%. Starmer gets the blame.
New boundaries come in for the October 24 election. Tory majority of 14.
The fundamentals are not there for such a significant collapse, from such a high base.
Remember that in 2024 a number of Tory MPs will be running on first term incumbency which will likely save a few seats here and there which would otherwise be expected to drop.
I certainly can see a cataclysm where an 80 seat Tory majority turns into a narrow Labour majority - that is how bad things are. Anything else is hyperbole.
The country is expressing its preference more and more for a Labour government but do not make the mistake that the country is hugely enthusiastic for one.
Or we can *borrow* to cut taxes which just make some companies & individuals richer, and then the inflation bubble inflates faster. She is bonkers.
The most likely outcome is that nothing much will happen.
Truss doesn't have the authority that Boris did. Boris saved the party in 2019 and was untouchable. Truss will just be stumbling along Theresa May style. The ERG will be screaming betrayal, and there will be chaos over any "woke" stuff. All in a context of economic chaos and decline.
It seems to me like the most likely fate is just that the tories start fighting amongst themselves and lose the next election, potentially heavily. Already they seem to have lost the sense of wanting to win; it is more about pushing through hobby horse policies whilst they have time.
"I’ve noticed a pattern - those that have @BartholomewRoberts attitude - “oh get over it, stop being a snowflake, enjoy the sun, it’s summer!” ALL come from parts of the country which have shit weather (eg Scotland, NW England) or their region didn’t endure 40C+, or both
No one in the south or SE is saying these dismissive things. We experienced 40C"
Sorry old chap, but you are WRONG! I live in one of the hottest areas, well until I decamped to the seaside get away, which was/is fairly hot. Did I mention the seaside getaway? Oh whoops I mentioned it again. I only mention it, not so as to boast (don't want to be a @leon), but because us second homers turn @leon into a torment of Jeremy Corbyn style envy. lol.
Hopefully the kerfuffle gets more MPs to read the piece.
Sounds like Mordaunt has sunk her own ship.
I think they made a film about that
PMQs..... any odds being offered on Boz getting a standing ovation a la Scumbag Blair??
I suppose I should be flattered
Con seats before election = 156
Con seats after election = 2
Quos Deus vult perdere, prius dementat.
And first term incumbency means being given the benefit of the doubt which may not exist if people feel poor.
That you say that is rather telling.
Value bet. Sell Tory majority. There seems to have been a total collapse in confidence within the Tory Party without Johnson.
And that's happening - so it's not impossible
All she really needs is an openness to new ideas and a total lack of shame, both of which she's got.
Now we could cut spending - but where exactly can we do that....
'That is a disgrace.'
Fairly or otherwise I fear Liz Truss won't get beyond the Ed Miliband 'weird' problem.
Ditto NI - she is planning on reverting to the prior rate, not cutting it below that.
As for how it helps, lower corporation tax = more investment = more productivity = faster growth = higher revenues not just in Corporation Tax but higher VAT, higher income tax etc too
Employee/Employer NI don't need cutting, they need abolishing and merging into Income Tax. They are the worst tax we have in this country and it needs to be eliminated, not hiked. Truss's plan to reverse Sunak's hike is a tiny step in the right direction, not a mistake.
Which is, coincidentally, almost precisely what they scored in the last two elections.
The Tories have a solid basis of about 25-30% of the vote without it, and they'd be very unlikely to drop below 200 seats on current boundaries.
She likely loses the next election, sure, but having a relatively short sharp burst of ERG-backed Trussness leading to a defeat in 2024 at least might spare the Tories The Betrayal Narrative when they fall from power.
We all know it’s coming otherwise - I.e the “we wouldn’t have lost if we had been more Brexity/anti-woke”.
Perhaps it might discredit them enough that the Tories can choose someone sensible in opposition rather than doubling down on the insanity. Might spare them another 13 years in opposition.
However, reading the Times today about Putin’s new isolation (the Chinese being frosty) I wonder if he will soon seek a tacit peace. He’s got a land bridge to Crimea. He’s seized a decent chunk of east Ukraine, he’s gained 2m blonde white Slavs to help his demographic crisis. Russia is bigger
He can take all that and consolidate it and easily sell it as victory and the war will grind to a gruesome halt
Quite likely, to my mind. And many around the world will welcome it
Until the Russians all bugger off back to Russia, and contribute a fair amount for the damage they did to Ukraine, the Western sanctions are going nowhere, slowly squeezing the Russian economy and the standard of living of the Russian middle classes.
Seems a tiny bit unlikely, though.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cb0dTdTeHMU
For people who do not fall within this category, which unfortunately is a lot of people, there needs to be social housing. For people who are more transient, there is the private rental sector.
You are vaguely in my region, I think?
The current market round here is that normal houses are selling after about 3 days and 6-8 viewings, and a couple of offers. I don't see the market here suffering much if there is a crash - prices are reasonable.
And I'm seeing people moving here from the South or SE, as we (M1J28) have good connections and are part of logistics central.
So lower corporation tax -> Short term profit maximisation -> less investment -> lower productivity (assets are sweated until death) -> less growth.
As for the evidence of the above just look at our economy since 2000....
(Family member with silver wedding anniversary imminent.)
https://www.arrse.co.uk/community/threads/russian-troop-movements-reported-near-ukraine.304396/
That might give you a partial solution to your first point as well.