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Five days on the Next CON leader betting market – politicalbetting.com
Five days on the Next CON leader betting market – politicalbetting.com
The chart based on trades on the Betfair exchange says it all. The big movement on the next CON leader market has been to the former hot favourite and ex-Chancellor, Rishi Sunak who today launched what looks like a highly professional campaign to succeed Johnson.
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I'd initially wondered if he'd come to an agreement with Javid about backing him. They clearly coordinated their resignations, and Javid has not yet put himself forward formally I think.
Going a bit closer to the Labour system, though not all the way.
Should weed out the Baron/Wiggins/etc also rans.
Wallace has also drifted and may not even run?? He is well regarded and has done well at Defence in an extraordinary time for that position. But he hasn’t held any of the 4 major offices of state.
Mourdant has also drifted and could be too “woke” for the electorate. Tug, having been the big mover yesterday has drifted back a bit. He has never held a senior cabinet position, so he seems to be a leap too far, in my view. And I can’t see why he is admired so much. Seems a bit IDS to me.
Hunt is very slow out of the traps and is a clear Remainer, which is a big problem with the membership. Zahawi is another with support yesterday who is now drifting. Plus being Chancellor for only a few days surely doesn’t give him the required credentials?
Truss is shortening in the betting and I think and hope will overhaul Penny as the preferred female.
I think it may be Sunak v Truss.
I've backed Truss at approx 11.5.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/only-rishi-sunak-is-smart-enough-for-tough-times-wb2zqf9cn
I’m not sure how much stock he has in the party, he is hugely discredited by his insane reaction to Brexit, so maybe he has none at all. But he does a good run-through of the candidates. He is adamant that Truss is bonkers, albeit likeable
Mordaunt could have been in there, why the F has she been spouting this Woke shit? Silly woman
We need @HYUFD to tell us who would win between the members, if it is Sunak/Truss
Box office. I’m supporting @RishiSunak
and will do all I can to help speed his entry into Number Ten. #Ready4Rishi
https://twitter.com/AWMurrison
Not on the ConHome list yet.
I'm sure deals have done, promises made of great offices of state etc, etc.
The question for the winner is do you want your friends close or your enemies closer in the new Cabinet.
Off topic and NSFW-ish but funny, ask Alexa to translate "Boris Johnson carrot coffee bean 100" into Welsh
Sunak, of course, was a Leaver
Right now Sunak is correctly the favourite
They think Sunak is a high-taxer with crypto-Remain tendencies.
Whereas Truss has successfully proven her Brexity credentials in the Foreign Office.
That’s not a small thing. It is also a good thing. It shows that Britain really is inclusive, and you can go places, whoever you are. That’s a great signal to send out
Also, it shoots a load of Labour foxes. It will be much harder for Starmer, facing Sunak
I am tending Sunak’s way, I just wish he was 5 inches taller
It’s probable that at least one day will exceed 35C, likely Tuesday or Wednesday. That used to be vanishingly rare but happens more often these days.
Then a cool down on Thursday and Friday to 28-30C before a split in the models between those getting up to 39-40C on Sunday-Monday (more favoured by the ECMWF model) and those slowly cooling things down (more the vibe in the American GFS model).
But France will see mid 40s and Iberia potentially up to 48C+.
It’s going to be quite dry heat. Less dangerous than the 2003 heatwave even if hotter on the continent.
Be tough to outflank her on the Right.
She's been holding major Cabinet posts for nearly a decade now, with the greatest criticism of her that people seem to be able to level is that she said "pork markets" and spoke about cheese weirdly in a speech nearly a decade ago. There doesn't seem to be any scandal at all around her handling of any of the offices she's held.
Plus she seems to fairly consistently hold economically dry and socially liberal views, which I approve of.
Plus she seems to be one of the few Cabinet Ministers who can seriously think through difficult issues and come up with sensible reforms after doing so. Even many of the critics here of the government's handling of the NI issue seemed to acknowledge her proposals for green lane/red lane handling of NI trade is a reasonable and sensible package of reforms.
Finally I met her years ago, before the Brexit referendum, and I was very impressed with her. A very smart cookie, an interesting discussion about UK's productivity problems, before it was popular to discuss that.
Lab landslide.
LOL
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Sunak to be knocked out in the final round like Portillo in 2001, with Boris lending enough of his supporters to Tugendhat to complete his revenge on Sunak. Boris himself will vote for Wallace as will the bulk of his remaining loyalists
The Guardian reporting Rishi already has 80 - 100 backers which I assume is way ahead of anyone else
Then a couple of further debates between the two.
As an activist for almost 40 years, I'd be very cautious at this stage of predicting a Sunak-Truss fight. Could be extremely close.
Would there be a weird celebration that the old imperial power was now run by “one of them” and the tables had turned? (That is not in any way meant derogatively).
Would India bask in it?
Would it be ignored or a bit of fun?
But would be fascinating to see how it was received in India under a Hindu nationalist gov.
Sunak and Javid would pose more problems to Labour, though neither is a sure fire vote winner.
Mordaunt is an unknown but I’m not sure she’ll stand anyway. Wallace, who knows?Tugendhat doesn’t stand a chance. Truss just comes across as faintly ridiculous with her Thatcher thing, fairly or not.
Obama was the first non white leader of the USA but then the USA is a nation mainly composed of immigrants unlike Europe
How many shit decisions can they make in one year?
Unless you mean born there. But that doesn't make sense against your US stat.
Or even top 25?
BBC boss who left radio star wife for presenter Victoria Derbyshire is sacked over claims he sexually harassed a staff member and a probe into his expenses
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2706920/BBC-boss-left-radio-star-wife-presenter-Victoria-Derbyshire-sacked-claims-sexually-harassed-staff-member-probe-expenses.html
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/shinzo-abe-assassination-india-declares-1-day-state-mourning-after-japan-ex-pm-shinzo-abes-death-3139607
The software patch if Sunak wins is going to be a laugh though. We have always been at war with Eastasia.
This Woke discourse that Britain is some hot bed of hateful racism really fucks my noodles. We are NOT racist. Not by the standards of history, not by the standards of our peers. We are imperfect. Oh yes we are imperfect. But we are not this Nazi toilet that the Guardian CONSTANTLY tries to portray
Her v Truss for the ballot
ERGers will hope to block Rishi and Tugendhat.
Remainers, and possibly Old Schoolers, will hope to block Truss and Braverman.
Boris will go for Truss.
May would go for Wallace.
Cummings for Rishi.
Frost for Truss.
Gove for Rishi or Tugendhat.
Cameron would go for Tugendhat.
Osborn for Rishi or Tugendhat.
Mordaunt needs to grab the Truss vote if she wants to go for it.
Most US citizens however have European or African or Latin American or Asian ancestry within the last 250 years. The only non immigrant Americans are the native American Indians
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-54216632
In Liz we Truss.
Plus you didn't say anything about timing.
I've got even more news for ytou. This chap Mr Darwin wrote some interesting books a centiry or two ago. His successors have shown that all non-African humans are immigrants from Africa.
As you say all good fun and our grandchildren are the centre of our world with no 5 due on the 1st September the date Rishi travels to the Palace (maybe)
If they cause trouble for the new leader they are not party loyalists, they are rebels from then on. Which is fine, its ok to be a member of the awkward squad.
Former equalities minister Kemi Badenoch, who resigned from government two days ago, has announced she will be joining the running to be Boris Johnson’s successor.
She told the Times she would radically cut the size of the state and provide a “limited government focused on essentials”.
I wonder where that would leave the Red Wall and the Levelling Up agenda?
Offering support on condition she remains Home Secretary?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xo5dnxw2PGc&ab_channel=PoliticsJOE
https://www.indy100.com/politics/suella-braverman-attorney-general-protocol