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The front pages on the Liar King’s desperate attempt to survive – politicalbetting.com

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  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,850
    Mr. Pigeon, I think they (wrongly) thought the PM would take the obviously right choice to resign yesterday after dozens of resignations and the Cabinet delegation telling him to go.

    It remains to be seen if they'll make the rules change today, but they should, and quickly.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 4,026
    edited July 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    Kay Burley: “And yet the PM is still in power.”

    Alastair Campbell: “Well, he’s in that building behind you. He’s not in power.”

    https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1544937485142196224

    Haha. Love or loathe Campbell that's an excellent retort!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,622
    Opperman, pensions minister, resigns
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,690
    R4 - Downing St briefing that Gove was sacked “on the spot” for telling Johnson to go not true. Gove told Johnson in the morning and story leaked in the afternoon - Downing St assumed it was Gove, which he denies, so sacked him - Ed Vaisey
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 32,264
    IanB2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Question for @rcs1000 - do you think US inflation might have peaked ?
    They are in a completely different place to Europe when it comes to energy prices, something that currently dominates our worldview.

    Once people decide they can’t or don’t want to buy stuff, a scenario of inflation quickly turning to deflation isn’t unrealistic.
    The big recent fall in oil prices should feed through.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 21,876
    Leon said:

    The best way to get Big Dog off the porch, now, is surely for everyone to refuse to serve. If he can’t form a government, he has to go. That’s it. Otherwise the £ will tank etc etc etc etc

    I reckon he will go today

    I had assumed that toadying lickspittles would be delighted to get an unexpected promotion. Yet we have seen people like David Duguid, Jacob Youg, Lee Anderson and even Jonathan Gullis say no.

    Who does that leave? Who are the MPs most like our own beloved HY willing to stomach absolutely anything no matter how disgusting and immoral? Are there any?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 8,315
    edited July 2022

    This continuing fiasco is on the 22. We could have had a VONC at 6pm last night. The Cabinet members could have made it clear they would be voting NC. By 8pm, the process of replacement would have started under an interim PM, probably Theresa May.

    Needs a breakfast rethink, Brady.

    The problem is we have predicted Boris would be gone so many times at each event over the last umpteen months. You yourself said he would be gone if cabinet ministers resigned. A completely reasonable assumption. Not just reasonable but obvious assumption. Yet here we are 52 ministers gone and he is still there. So what makes us think he will go if he loses a VONC of Tory MPs, other than of course it is obvious to any sane person.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,254

    I don’t see how this helps Wallace’s or Truss’s leadership ambitions. If they’re seeking to inherit all the Johnson supporters… well, there aren’t very many of them left, so what’s the point?

    Also Zahawi has probably leapfrogged them as the BoJo loyalist candidate.

    If the succession race boils down to three groups-

    1 Still loyal to Johnson, even now
    2 In Johnson's cabinet, but bailing on him now
    3 Never supported Johnson

    Which two get through to the membership?
    Two from the third pot.....
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 25,243
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Personally I don't think failing to form a Government will deter Boris in the least.

    That's not the kind of thing which will bother him.

    Only if he has gone howling-at-the-moon mad.

    Anybody sane can see his authority has gone. His greatest currency is patronage. But if nobody wants to take the jobs he is offering....
    I did pose the question yesterday about what happens if a PM goes insane. The response was about sociopathy but that wasn't really my point.

    What DOES happen if a PM goes insane or has a serious mental breakdown that they themselves refuse to acknowledge whilst in office? There's no written constitution so what would happen?
    Well. This.
    I don't think he has, because this was eminently predictable, and predicted, by those who know hlm best.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,185
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 10,199
    edited July 2022
    Just for the betting markets I'm curious if we might find ourselves in the position of an 'acting PM' with Boris gone?

    Yes in theory there's no such thing as an acting PM as it stands, but also as it stands we have an unwritten constitution, so things that have never happened before can happen in the future, as new precedent becomes invented.

    When Boris was hospitalised Raab was entrusted with the responsibilities of the PM role, without being PM. Could the same happen again now?
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,624
    Why on earth would anyone take up a new role in government with an unhinged PM who is on his way out . So if you can’t fill these roles you don’t have a functioning government .

    Johnson’s pathetic last stand needs to end , the 1922 need to convene a meeting and end this .
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,185
    Boris Johnson’s dragged-out departure makes him look like ‘Britain’s Trump’.

    The bunker mentality, the implication of a premiership being somehow stolen from him, the narcissism.

    https://inews.co.uk/opinion/boris-johnsons-dragged-out-departure-confirms-him-as-britains-trump-1727923

    But the domestic comparison is the one Johnson would prefer: to Thatcher.
    The betrayal narrative, the place in history of never being defeated in a gen election, the generational rupture in the Tory party that will leave his supporters saying 'no one else cd get a big majority'
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 25,243
    edited July 2022
    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    Here's my amateur opinion on why Johnson is hanging on.

    He knows the gig is up. It's mate-in-two-against-any-defence.

    However, rather than resign, the story going forward will be much different if he is instead VONCd by the 1922 changing the rules, either today or Monday.

    Firstly, the story will all be about him being VONCd. Why he's being VONCd (Pincher, Partygate or a hundred other scandals) will be secondary. And to a great mass of the public, that's the story he'll pitch. He was unfairly robbed by second-rate politicians who changed the rules just to get rid of him.

    It's the Trump playbook. You didn't lose, the game was rigged against you by cheats. I don't think Johnson has the same bizarre 'I never lost' core of his personality like Trump, but he's also seen how you can become the Ayatollah in exile by doing so.

    So he get's VONCd, and hangs around in the background as the potential saviour as the country goes to the dogs with inflation, strikes and gas bills.

    Thatcher fantasized about doing this herself but she was stymied because firstly she resigned, and secondly she made it known Major was her successor. Then Major went and won the next election anyway.

    Johnson has worked this out. He'll endorse nobody and keep his team of sycophants (Mogg, Dorries etc.) around to brief against the new PM. Undermine enough and hopefully you have a hung parliament with Labour in government and Johnson is the chosen one to reclaim the majority.

    Will it work? I doubt it. But I wouldn't bet against Trump winning in 2024 either.

    Brits aren’t Americans. And Conservative voters aren’t Republican voters.

    He is trashing his reputation, and most likely that of his party, beyond repair. It’s going to be a generation before they recover from this. With any luck, this will forever tarnish Brexit into the bargain.

    One could almost say that we are watching the ending of an era before our eyes, but don’t realise it yet.
    Centre-right voters will largely be relieved that he's gone. People say "X Party will never govern again because of this" and then they're back in the lead in the polls a year later.

    The manner of his departure makes it easier for the Conservatives to move on. He is entirely bereft of grace and dignity, unlike Thatcher, Cameron, or May, so nobody is going to be flying the flag for him after he goes. He might try hanging around like a bad fart in a lift, but 90% of Conservative MPs will want nothing to do with him.
    I get that.
    But he's still hugely popular with many voters. He could cause endless years of headache for the Tories were he minded to.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 4,026

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener: I must admit it's funny hearing someone talk about the joys of travelling, and then talking about the horrors of the business lounge not being up to snuff.

    How the other 1% live ....

    Yep I'm a champagne socialist. :smiley:

    I love flying business class on long haul because sleep is important to me. So I flatbed and sleep for many hours and wake up in a decent enough state to get going. When I don't sleep much I get very light-headed and discombobulated.

    However, to be equally fair to myself I should point out that I have Silver status with OneWorld which has been extended to 2024. So I can buy an economy ticket and still use the business lounges. It's a great perk. When I returned from Scotland in the autumn I flew back for, iirc, £20 with Avios points but I was able to use the business lounge. Made it a rather pleasant experience.

    [...]

    But please continue to stay home. The rest of us are enjoying a somewhat quieter, sweeter world. Today I am walking down to the Rijeka River for a swim. Bliss
    No that's fine. But in that case, return the favour by keeping it to yourself. It all comes across as a bit too desperate. 'This is all wonderful. Honest'

    If it was that wonderful you wouldn't be parked up on here all the time posting photos.

    Just my view. Don't do your bullying expletive ridden default response please.
    Oh lordy. you cannot help yourself, can you? That last sentence was utterly unnecessary.

    Anyway, I personally like the little travelogues we get on here. They're not strictly necessary, but as long as there are not too many of them it adds to the site IMO.
    Unless or until you have been on the receiving end of bullying you would not understand.

    Sir Keir got the tone of that absolutely right yesterday. When you have been abused by a man, or in my case also raped, it teaches you to watch for signs of bullying demeanour. The default response to turn to CAPS LOCK, or use swear words, or opprobrium is bullying behaviour and I hesitated therefore to respond to Leon because I feared he would do it again. I don't like it and it tends to drive me away from here. It literally leaves me shaking with fear and ruins my day. If you have some decency you might just pause for a moment over your keys and listen to me as a woman who has been on the receiving end.

    Anyway, we have other things to discuss. I aired a travel piece that was thoughtful, I felt.

    x
    [...]

    This is a site for robust political debate. You yourself often insult people without reason [...]
    JJ there's a huge difference between critiquing a point of view and being personally insulting or resorting to Ad Hominem or opprobrium.

    If I've insulted you in the past then I apologise. Actually I believe I already did apologise months ago for that and so I'm disappointed that you have re-raised it.

    I also suspect, with respect, that you all-too-readily rush to defend the indefensible because of a shared political perspective. The best posters on here are polite to one another despite differences but they're also not sycophantic to those of a similar persuasion when they cross the line.

    Peace.

    x
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,171
    At this rate, by the end of the day the Government will consist of basically just what's left of the Cabinet.
  • JonWCJonWC Posts: 282
    Raab still seems like a decent bet even in the teens, with Frost saying Boris must go immediately.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 28,157
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Personally I don't think failing to form a Government will deter Boris in the least.

    That's not the kind of thing which will bother him.

    Only if he has gone howling-at-the-moon mad.

    Anybody sane can see his authority has gone. His greatest currency is patronage. But if nobody wants to take the jobs he is offering....
    I did pose the question yesterday about what happens if a PM goes insane. The response was about sociopathy but that wasn't really my point.

    What DOES happen if a PM goes insane or has a serious mental breakdown that they themselves refuse to acknowledge whilst in office? There's no written constitution so what would happen?
    I think what you are missing is that there are systems for removing the PM. The problem at the moment is that none of the players - and that includes the Leader of the Opposition - are willing to exercise them. Too many people are still putting personal advantage above the good of the country.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,709

    I don’t see how this helps Wallace’s or Truss’s leadership ambitions. If they’re seeking to inherit all the Johnson supporters… well, there aren’t very many of them left, so what’s the point?

    Yes. That is where the Trump/Johnson analogy breaks down.
    Trump does actually have supporters. Rather a lot of them.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 2,923

    JACK_W said:

    Another 4 as The Rebel XI has now hit an unbeaten 50 with a sumptuous cover drive to the boundary from George Freeman.

    The Boris XI looking at an innings defeat ,,,

    Arlott of commentary about it too
    The batsman's Holding the bowler's Willey.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,185
    A minister who was in meetings with Johnson on Tuesday night confirmed that the prime minister wanted to appoint Liz Truss as chancellor but Zahawi got the job after threatening to quit https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1544940318650503171/photo/1
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,690
    Johnson now significantly ahead of May in the ministerial resignation stakes:

    https://twitter.com/timd_ifg/status/1544939212994220033
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 11,194
    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Imagine being a Minister and not planning to resign today.
    https://twitter.com/DavidGauke/status/1544929599561371648

    Do we really think that 75 resignations would shame Johnson into resigning, when 45 resignations weren't enough?

    It's past time to rely on the traditional informal methods. MPs need to turn to the formal procedural methods available to them - a Commons Vote of No Confidence.
    Once again why should Labour do that? What do they gain by solving what is a Conservative party problem?
    If Labour don't do it then someone else could do - and how daft do Labour look having to wait for the SNP to table a vote of no confidence to get rid of Johnson?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 4,026
    Leon said:

    This continuing fiasco is on the 22. We could have had a VONC at 6pm last night. The Cabinet members could have made it clear they would be voting NC. By 8pm, the process of replacement would have started under an interim PM, probably Theresa May.

    Needs a breakfast rethink, Brady.

    [...]

    However I still have a feeling - perhaps deluded - that Boris will wake up (alone?) and look at another day of painful ridicule and absurdity, with the Queen tutting away, and he will think OK OK enough I’m done
    No chance, according to Petronella who predicted just this situation:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10988473/Boris-Johnsons-ex-girlfriend-Petronella-Wyatt-says-PM-bereft-humility-NEVER-resign.html

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,254
    dixiedean said:

    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    Here's my amateur opinion on why Johnson is hanging on.

    He knows the gig is up. It's mate-in-two-against-any-defence.

    However, rather than resign, the story going forward will be much different if he is instead VONCd by the 1922 changing the rules, either today or Monday.

    Firstly, the story will all be about him being VONCd. Why he's being VONCd (Pincher, Partygate or a hundred other scandals) will be secondary. And to a great mass of the public, that's the story he'll pitch. He was unfairly robbed by second-rate politicians who changed the rules just to get rid of him.

    It's the Trump playbook. You didn't lose, the game was rigged against you by cheats. I don't think Johnson has the same bizarre 'I never lost' core of his personality like Trump, but he's also seen how you can become the Ayatollah in exile by doing so.

    So he get's VONCd, and hangs around in the background as the potential saviour as the country goes to the dogs with inflation, strikes and gas bills.

    Thatcher fantasized about doing this herself but she was stymied because firstly she resigned, and secondly she made it known Major was her successor. Then Major went and won the next election anyway.

    Johnson has worked this out. He'll endorse nobody and keep his team of sycophants (Mogg, Dorries etc.) around to brief against the new PM. Undermine enough and hopefully you have a hung parliament with Labour in government and Johnson is the chosen one to reclaim the majority.

    Will it work? I doubt it. But I wouldn't bet against Trump winning in 2024 either.

    Brits aren’t Americans. And Conservative voters aren’t Republican voters.

    He is trashing his reputation, and most likely that of his party, beyond repair. It’s going to be a generation before they recover from this. With any luck, this will forever tarnish Brexit into the bargain.

    One could almost say that we are watching the ending of an era before our eyes, but don’t realise it yet.
    Centre-right voters will largely be relieved that he's gone. People say "X Party will never govern again because of this" and then they're back in the lead in the polls a year later.

    The manner of his departure makes it easier for the Conservatives to move on. He is entirely bereft of grace and dignity, unlike Thatcher, Cameron, or May, so nobody is going to be flying the flag for him after he goes. He might try hanging around like a bad fart in a lift, but 90% of Conservative MPs will want nothing to do with him.
    I get that.
    But he's still hugely popular with many voters. He could cause endless years of headache for the Tories were he minded to.
    The limping limpet act is going to make it a whole lot easier for people to walk away from him.

    There's no money in it for him "doing a Heath" and sulking from the backbenchers.

    It is quite possible he will have resigned as an MP by 10 pm tonight.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 19,013

    Leon said:

    The best way to get Big Dog off the porch, now, is surely for everyone to refuse to serve. If he can’t form a government, he has to go. That’s it. Otherwise the £ will tank etc etc etc etc

    I reckon he will go today

    I had assumed that toadying lickspittles would be delighted to get an unexpected promotion. Yet we have seen people like David Duguid, Jacob Youg, Lee Anderson and even Jonathan Gullis say no.

    Who does that leave? Who are the MPs most like our own beloved HY willing to stomach absolutely anything no matter how disgusting and immoral? Are there any?
    I have written to Alun Cairns asking for his view on events. He has not come back to me. Welsh Secretary by 9 am?
  • Heathener said:

    So a stack of more resignations and Priti Patel has just called for him to go.

    Leon may be right after all on this: could today be the day?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62069494

    Good morning

    Patel asked him to go last night and resignation after resignation continues this morning

    Furthermore Johnson's attempts to appoint cabinet ministers are being publicly rejected by those asked

    He is a disgrace and anyone standing by him should have no future roll in the conservative party

    Brady should call an emergency 1922 meeting and bring forward the change in the committee needed to reject Johnson from office
    I think this is right.

    The 1922 made a huge mistake yesterday by setting a timetable to end this chaos over the course of the next week or so. That would have worked with anyone else, but not the sociopath in his bunker. It's far, far too long, and every hour this goes on causes huge damage to the Conservative Party.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,185
    I’m deeply saddened it has come to this, but the PM should step down given public and Parliamentary confidence has clearly gone, and given the importance of integrity in public life. I’m therefore stepping down as Minister for Tech and the Digital Economy now https://twitter.com/CPhilpOfficial/status/1544939888931635200/photo/1
  • I don’t see how this helps Wallace’s or Truss’s leadership ambitions. If they’re seeking to inherit all the Johnson supporters… well, there aren’t very many of them left, so what’s the point?

    The rational thing for Wallace and Truss to do would be to 'do a Braverman'.

    Go on TV and say that the PM has to go, but as there is a war on the country you will be fulfilling your duty as Defence Secretary/Foreign Secretary and your first responsibility is to the country, not the Prime Minister.

    That was seriously impressive and eloquent by Braverman last night. 👍
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,644

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Imagine being a Minister and not planning to resign today.
    https://twitter.com/DavidGauke/status/1544929599561371648

    Do we really think that 75 resignations would shame Johnson into resigning, when 45 resignations weren't enough?

    It's past time to rely on the traditional informal methods. MPs need to turn to the formal procedural methods available to them - a Commons Vote of No Confidence.
    Once again why should Labour do that? What do they gain by solving what is a Conservative party problem?
    If Labour don't do it then someone else could do - and how daft do Labour look having to wait for the SNP to table a vote of no confidence to get rid of Johnson?
    I thought only the Leader of the Opposition can call a VONC…?

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 32,264
    dixiedean said:

    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    Here's my amateur opinion on why Johnson is hanging on.

    He knows the gig is up. It's mate-in-two-against-any-defence.

    However, rather than resign, the story going forward will be much different if he is instead VONCd by the 1922 changing the rules, either today or Monday.

    Firstly, the story will all be about him being VONCd. Why he's being VONCd (Pincher, Partygate or a hundred other scandals) will be secondary. And to a great mass of the public, that's the story he'll pitch. He was unfairly robbed by second-rate politicians who changed the rules just to get rid of him.

    It's the Trump playbook. You didn't lose, the game was rigged against you by cheats. I don't think Johnson has the same bizarre 'I never lost' core of his personality like Trump, but he's also seen how you can become the Ayatollah in exile by doing so.

    So he get's VONCd, and hangs around in the background as the potential saviour as the country goes to the dogs with inflation, strikes and gas bills.

    Thatcher fantasized about doing this herself but she was stymied because firstly she resigned, and secondly she made it known Major was her successor. Then Major went and won the next election anyway.

    Johnson has worked this out. He'll endorse nobody and keep his team of sycophants (Mogg, Dorries etc.) around to brief against the new PM. Undermine enough and hopefully you have a hung parliament with Labour in government and Johnson is the chosen one to reclaim the majority.

    Will it work? I doubt it. But I wouldn't bet against Trump winning in 2024 either.

    Brits aren’t Americans. And Conservative voters aren’t Republican voters.

    He is trashing his reputation, and most likely that of his party, beyond repair. It’s going to be a generation before they recover from this. With any luck, this will forever tarnish Brexit into the bargain.

    One could almost say that we are watching the ending of an era before our eyes, but don’t realise it yet.
    Centre-right voters will largely be relieved that he's gone. People say "X Party will never govern again because of this" and then they're back in the lead in the polls a year later.

    The manner of his departure makes it easier for the Conservatives to move on. He is entirely bereft of grace and dignity, unlike Thatcher, Cameron, or May, so nobody is going to be flying the flag for him after he goes. He might try hanging around like a bad fart in a lift, but 90% of Conservative MPs will want nothing to do with him.
    I get that.
    But he's still hugely popular with many voters. He could cause endless years of headache for the Tories were he minded to.
    I no longer think he is popular with more than a niche. Trump at least is popular with a large minority.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 4,026

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Personally I don't think failing to form a Government will deter Boris in the least.

    That's not the kind of thing which will bother him.

    Only if he has gone howling-at-the-moon mad.

    Anybody sane can see his authority has gone. His greatest currency is patronage. But if nobody wants to take the jobs he is offering....
    I did pose the question yesterday about what happens if a PM goes insane. The response was about sociopathy but that wasn't really my point.

    What DOES happen if a PM goes insane or has a serious mental breakdown that they themselves refuse to acknowledge whilst in office? There's no written constitution so what would happen?
    I think what you are missing is that there are systems for removing the PM. The problem at the moment is that none of the players - and that includes the Leader of the Opposition - are willing to exercise them. Too many people are still putting personal advantage above the good of the country.
    How can the LOTO remove him? Do you mean a VONC on the Government? I'm not sure that's a viable 'system' for removing the PM because it isn't a vote of no confidence in the PM it's a vote of no confidence in the Government, which hitherto has triggered a General Election. The latter would be in Labour's interest but there's no way the parliamentary Conservative Party will go down that route.

    I think this just proves the point. Our unwritten constitution relies on people playing by accepted rules of decency or sanity.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,185
    Someone tweeted a coup d’twat is occurring live in the U.K. and I have not read anything more accurate - night.
    https://twitter.com/KGuilaine/status/1544813572282372103
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,801

    I don’t see how this helps Wallace’s or Truss’s leadership ambitions. If they’re seeking to inherit all the Johnson supporters… well, there aren’t very many of them left, so what’s the point?

    Yes. That is where the Trump/Johnson analogy breaks down.
    Trump does actually have supporters. Rather a lot of them.
    Also Trump lost an election, whereas Boris won his, both the most recent general election and the 1922 Committee.

    I don't really think Boris's behaviour is precedented in the UK or the US, in this century. The closest I can think is the Long Administration in the 18th century, which was a two-day attempt by the King's favourite to form a government that no reputable politicians wanted to be a part of. But even that breaks down in a number of ways.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 21,876
    As you probably know I am a long-standing federalist who has posted on here that we need to significantly reform many of the institutions and unwritten guff that is our constitution.

    This is a prime example of why. We have a rogue Prime Minister. He refuses to quit. Claims a mass mandate that literally doesn't exist in the real world. Is likely to ignore the Tory party. Even if they refuse to serve in his cabinet it remains in his remit to call an election - I AM KING style.

    We really have to sort this out. The fallacy that "I have a mandate" is one that many many voters actually believe to be true. How many people say "I voted for Boris" when they did not?
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,171

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Imagine being a Minister and not planning to resign today.
    https://twitter.com/DavidGauke/status/1544929599561371648

    Do we really think that 75 resignations would shame Johnson into resigning, when 45 resignations weren't enough?

    It's past time to rely on the traditional informal methods. MPs need to turn to the formal procedural methods available to them - a Commons Vote of No Confidence.
    Once again why should Labour do that? What do they gain by solving what is a Conservative party problem?
    If Labour don't do it then someone else could do - and how daft do Labour look having to wait for the SNP to table a vote of no confidence to get rid of Johnson?
    I thought only the Leader of the Opposition can call a VONC…?

    I seem to remember that other parties can ask to have one but only the official opposition are guaranteed to be allowed to vote on it if they ask. Or something.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,709
    dixiedean said:

    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    Here's my amateur opinion on why Johnson is hanging on.

    He knows the gig is up. It's mate-in-two-against-any-defence.

    However, rather than resign, the story going forward will be much different if he is instead VONCd by the 1922 changing the rules, either today or Monday.

    Firstly, the story will all be about him being VONCd. Why he's being VONCd (Pincher, Partygate or a hundred other scandals) will be secondary. And to a great mass of the public, that's the story he'll pitch. He was unfairly robbed by second-rate politicians who changed the rules just to get rid of him.

    It's the Trump playbook. You didn't lose, the game was rigged against you by cheats. I don't think Johnson has the same bizarre 'I never lost' core of his personality like Trump, but he's also seen how you can become the Ayatollah in exile by doing so.

    So he get's VONCd, and hangs around in the background as the potential saviour as the country goes to the dogs with inflation, strikes and gas bills.

    Thatcher fantasized about doing this herself but she was stymied because firstly she resigned, and secondly she made it known Major was her successor. Then Major went and won the next election anyway.

    Johnson has worked this out. He'll endorse nobody and keep his team of sycophants (Mogg, Dorries etc.) around to brief against the new PM. Undermine enough and hopefully you have a hung parliament with Labour in government and Johnson is the chosen one to reclaim the majority.

    Will it work? I doubt it. But I wouldn't bet against Trump winning in 2024 either.

    Brits aren’t Americans. And Conservative voters aren’t Republican voters.

    He is trashing his reputation, and most likely that of his party, beyond repair. It’s going to be a generation before they recover from this. With any luck, this will forever tarnish Brexit into the bargain.

    One could almost say that we are watching the ending of an era before our eyes, but don’t realise it yet.
    Centre-right voters will largely be relieved that he's gone. People say "X Party will never govern again because of this" and then they're back in the lead in the polls a year later.

    The manner of his departure makes it easier for the Conservatives to move on. He is entirely bereft of grace and dignity, unlike Thatcher, Cameron, or May, so nobody is going to be flying the flag for him after he goes. He might try hanging around like a bad fart in a lift, but 90% of Conservative MPs will want nothing to do with him.
    I get that.
    But he's still hugely popular with many voters. He could cause endless years of headache for the Tories were he minded to.
    Looks like he is minded to.

    Three things Boris Johnson doesn’t care about:

    Business
    The Conservative and Unionist Party
    The Union
  • kjhkjh Posts: 8,315

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Personally I don't think failing to form a Government will deter Boris in the least.

    That's not the kind of thing which will bother him.

    Only if he has gone howling-at-the-moon mad.

    Anybody sane can see his authority has gone. His greatest currency is patronage. But if nobody wants to take the jobs he is offering....
    I did pose the question yesterday about what happens if a PM goes insane. The response was about sociopathy but that wasn't really my point.

    What DOES happen if a PM goes insane or has a serious mental breakdown that they themselves refuse to acknowledge whilst in office? There's no written constitution so what would happen?
    I think what you are missing is that there are systems for removing the PM. The problem at the moment is that none of the players - and that includes the Leader of the Opposition - are willing to exercise them. Too many people are still putting personal advantage above the good of the country.
    Agree. Even in this chaos I have no fears of the chaos Trump caused happening here.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,675
    edited July 2022
    Regrettably I cashed out my previous Teresa May for next PM bets some time ago. But yesterday I backed Teresa May again for next PM at 100/1 + on Betfair, who will settle on the next PM as published on gov.uk. (In contrast to Hills who pay out on next permanent leader and not on interim/caretaker.) It’s looking increasingly possible that July 2022 will see the return of May as the country enters chaos and constitutional crisis.

    Tomorrow's headlines will all be the same.

    Mayday. Mayday.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,497

    Nigelb said:

    So many resignation letters that they made a sodding wordcloud
    https://twitter.com/alexwilks88/status/1544734709372043264

    its an interesting way of looking at it and sums up the British tendency to talk around the issue... lots of government, country etc but nothing about the PM himself.....
    A few did, and should get more respect as a result.

    Some of them youd mistake their resignation letters for ones of praise if you scanned it and missed one sentence.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,690

    Just for the betting markets I'm curious if we might find ourselves in the position of an 'acting PM' with Boris gone?

    Yes in theory there's no such thing as an acting PM as it stands, but also as it stands we have an unwritten constitution, so things that have never happened before can happen in the future, as new precedent becomes invented.

    When Boris was hospitalised Raab was entrusted with the responsibilities of the PM role, without being PM. Could the same happen again now?

    I think there should be an interim PM - but would need to be one who would not put themselves forward for the leadership and hence a more permanent (until the GE) position. Would Raab (who is probably in his final Parliament) agree? If not, then May.

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 25,243

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Imagine being a Minister and not planning to resign today.
    https://twitter.com/DavidGauke/status/1544929599561371648

    Do we really think that 75 resignations would shame Johnson into resigning, when 45 resignations weren't enough?

    It's past time to rely on the traditional informal methods. MPs need to turn to the formal procedural methods available to them - a Commons Vote of No Confidence.
    Once again why should Labour do that? What do they gain by solving what is a Conservative party problem?
    If Labour don't do it then someone else could do - and how daft do Labour look having to wait for the SNP to table a vote of no confidence to get rid of Johnson?
    I thought only the Leader of the Opposition can call a VONC…?

    Not so.
    But only the LOTO gets automatic priority over all other business AIUI. So, if it is to be today then it has to be SKS.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,850
    Mr. Dickson, your post is less than I expected from you.

    You missed off 'vows of fidelity'.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,695

    JACK_W said:

    Another 4 as The Rebel XI has now hit an unbeaten 50 with a sumptuous cover drive to the boundary from George Freeman.

    The Boris XI looking at an innings defeat ,,,

    Arlott of commentary about it too
    The batsman's Holding the bowler's Willey.
    Other way round surely
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 11,194

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Imagine being a Minister and not planning to resign today.
    https://twitter.com/DavidGauke/status/1544929599561371648

    Do we really think that 75 resignations would shame Johnson into resigning, when 45 resignations weren't enough?

    It's past time to rely on the traditional informal methods. MPs need to turn to the formal procedural methods available to them - a Commons Vote of No Confidence.
    Once again why should Labour do that? What do they gain by solving what is a Conservative party problem?
    If Labour don't do it then someone else could do - and how daft do Labour look having to wait for the SNP to table a vote of no confidence to get rid of Johnson?
    I thought only the Leader of the Opposition can call a VONC…?

    Anyone can table the motion, but the convention is that when the Leader of the Opposition does so it trumps any other business, but it's up to the Speaker whether they ignore it when tabled by anyone else.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,622

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Imagine being a Minister and not planning to resign today.
    https://twitter.com/DavidGauke/status/1544929599561371648

    Do we really think that 75 resignations would shame Johnson into resigning, when 45 resignations weren't enough?

    It's past time to rely on the traditional informal methods. MPs need to turn to the formal procedural methods available to them - a Commons Vote of No Confidence.
    Once again why should Labour do that? What do they gain by solving what is a Conservative party problem?
    If Labour don't do it then someone else could do - and how daft do Labour look having to wait for the SNP to table a vote of no confidence to get rid of Johnson?
    I thought only the Leader of the Opposition can call a VONC…?

    Anyone can table the motion, but the convention is that when the Leader of the Opposition does so it trumps any other business, but it's up to the Speaker whether they ignore it when tabled by anyone else.
    The LibDems tabled one many months ago, and it still sits in the Order Book
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,511
    Scott_xP said:

    I’m deeply saddened it has come to this, but the PM should step down given public and Parliamentary confidence has clearly gone, and given the importance of integrity in public life. I’m therefore stepping down as Minister for Tech and the Digital Economy now https://twitter.com/CPhilpOfficial/status/1544939888931635200/photo/1

    I’m not sure he has those “60 loyalists” any more. More like 20. His foolish behaviour will have alienated many of them

    You can’t even have one decent football match with 20 people, let alone “form a government”. I don’t see how he fights on beyond today
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,690
    edited July 2022
    Latest resignation:

    The mind begins to boggle as resignations top 50 but this exit is still significant.

    Philp was a bona fide uber-loyalist - proper ravens leaving the tower stuff


    https://twitter.com/los_fisher/status/1544941635741663235
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 25,243
    Just pointed out.
    No Security Minister means no authority for MI5 and counter terrorism to conduct surveillance/operations.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,497
    Scott_xP said:

    The question is this: what does Johnson think he can achieve from here? What does he think he can do? How does he intend to get the Conservative Party's MPs back on board? (I say the party's MPs instead of 'his' MP's as the majority are obviously not 'his' any more).

    I just cannot see a way back for him from here.

    According to his PPS last night he can charm them back into supporting him (again).

    I think he honestly believes it.
    For charm replace with scare.

    Thus far in his career blustering onward has led to others backing down, more often than not. He's trying it one last time.

    As Meeks notes his chances of remaining on to oversee transition this reduce. And who wants the record for shortest serving PM? Hence May being talked up.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 21,876
    Gavin Barwell live on LBC saying what I just said - we need to change the system as it is currently predicated on the PM being a good faith actor.
  • As you probably know I am a long-standing federalist who has posted on here that we need to significantly reform many of the institutions and unwritten guff that is our constitution.

    This is a prime example of why. We have a rogue Prime Minister. He refuses to quit. Claims a mass mandate that literally doesn't exist in the real world. Is likely to ignore the Tory party. Even if they refuse to serve in his cabinet it remains in his remit to call an election - I AM KING style.

    We really have to sort this out. The fallacy that "I have a mandate" is one that many many voters actually believe to be true. How many people say "I voted for Boris" when they did not?

    Sorry but you could not have this more wrong.

    What is happening at the moment shows the remarkable underlying strength, durability and flexibility of our unwritten constitution.

    Despite "the written rules" saying that Boris was safe to be Prime Minister for another 12 months, in the space of 24-72 hours it is all coming to an end and he will be out of office shortly. Increasingly possibly after a visit from the men in white coats, and the ones in grey suits failed.

    When this has happened in countries with "written rules" the flexibility to adapt to a situation like this is much tougher, and the ability of those in power to try to abuse the rules to drag out and remain in power ends up being to their advantage, rather than the nation's advantage.

    Trump could stay in office for months after he lost the election, degrading his office even further, within "the written rules". Boris's end is being measured in hours/days not months and our system is working, Boris is just in denial and this is a very sad and ridiculous end.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,709

    Mr. Dickson, your post is less than I expected from you.

    You missed off 'vows of fidelity'.

    My apologies.

    In my defence, a list of things which Boris Johnson doesn’t care about could take up a bookshelf or two.

    We all know that there is only one item on the list of things he cares about.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 24,000

    Gavin Barwell live on LBC saying what I just said - we need to change the system as it is currently predicated on the PM being a good faith actor.

    Not really, as @MarqueeMark says, the 22 could have changed the rules last night. That they didn't shows that as much as lots of people want the PM gone, they're prepared to let this nonsense continue a little longer because they think that is better than looking like they've changed the rules of the game.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 4,289
    edited July 2022
    JonWC said:

    Raab still seems like a decent bet even in the teens, with Frost saying Boris must go immediately.

    The market terms are on a permanent next PM - they'd not pay out on a someone stepping in as caretaker (which in any event wouldn't necessarily be him - "deputy PM" isn't like VP in the USA, as it has no formal constitutional status and we often don't bother with one).

    And if you're saying he has a chance in a subsequent leadership contest, I've got some magic beans I'd like to sell you.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,622
    moonshine said:

    IanB2 said:

    Voters aren’t going to forget all of this in a hurry.

    Tory most seats at the next GE is surely a screaming lay @1.9

    Two years to the next election will involve a lot of water going under bridges. But yes, unless almost all the current Current cabinet are firmly away from the public mind by the next election then it’s surely going to be a hammering.
    Even if you are right - and remember how long the loss of credibility after Black Weds endured - it is surely a screaming trading bet? That Tories are favourites for most seats with this tragic psychodrama playing out, and all the bad news we know is coming down the road, is absurd.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,709

    As you probably know I am a long-standing federalist who has posted on here that we need to significantly reform many of the institutions and unwritten guff that is our constitution.

    This is a prime example of why. We have a rogue Prime Minister. He refuses to quit. Claims a mass mandate that literally doesn't exist in the real world. Is likely to ignore the Tory party. Even if they refuse to serve in his cabinet it remains in his remit to call an election - I AM KING style.

    We really have to sort this out. The fallacy that "I have a mandate" is one that many many voters actually believe to be true. How many people say "I voted for Boris" when they did not?

    Even lapdog Duguid refused a ministerial appointment.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 8,315
    tlg86 said:

    Gavin Barwell live on LBC saying what I just said - we need to change the system as it is currently predicated on the PM being a good faith actor.

    Not really, as @MarqueeMark says, the 22 could have changed the rules last night. That they didn't shows that as much as lots of people want the PM gone, they're prepared to let this nonsense continue a little longer because they think that is better than looking like they've changed the rules of the game.
    And what if he doesn't go after losing a vonc of Tory MPs?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,690
    Signs of splits even inside No10: one source says parts of Downing Street preparing a resignation statement but not clear the PM would read it and others insist Boris Johnson pressing on

    https://twitter.com/samcoatessky/status/1544942645188911104
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,497

    The question is this: what does Johnson think he can achieve from here? What does he think he can do? How does he intend to get the Conservative Party's MPs back on board? (I say the party's MPs instead of 'his' MP's as the majority are obviously not 'his' any more).

    I just cannot see a way back for him from here.

    He thinks the problem is policies and he can announce new stuff. But they've come to accept the problem is him. Only scare tactics might work now, but too many loyalists have crossed the Rubicon - they're worried enough about the next election that his threats arent working.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 9,061
    If the now 52 resignations are added to the 148 who voted against in the last VONC, we're up to 200.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,622

    Gavin Barwell live on LBC saying what I just said - we need to change the system as it is currently predicated on the PM being a good faith actor.

    The tragedy is that too many politicians only fully appreciate the flaws in our political system once they've been through it and are in, or heading towards, political retirement
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,695
    IanB2 said:

    moonshine said:

    IanB2 said:

    Voters aren’t going to forget all of this in a hurry.

    Tory most seats at the next GE is surely a screaming lay @1.9

    Two years to the next election will involve a lot of water going under bridges. But yes, unless almost all the current Current cabinet are firmly away from the public mind by the next election then it’s surely going to be a hammering.
    Even if you are right - and remember how long the loss of credibility after Black Weds endured - it is surely a screaming trading bet? That Tories are favourites for most seats with this tragic psychodrama playing out, and all the bad news we know is coming down the road, is absurd.
    It's looking increasingly like even SKS can defeat this rabble.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 24,000
    kjh said:

    tlg86 said:

    Gavin Barwell live on LBC saying what I just said - we need to change the system as it is currently predicated on the PM being a good faith actor.

    Not really, as @MarqueeMark says, the 22 could have changed the rules last night. That they didn't shows that as much as lots of people want the PM gone, they're prepared to let this nonsense continue a little longer because they think that is better than looking like they've changed the rules of the game.
    And what if he doesn't go after losing a vonc of Tory MPs?
    I'd have thought in that situation, the Palace will invite someone to form a government, and Johnson would, quite literally, be dragged out of Downing Street.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,919
    IanB2 said:

    moonshine said:

    IanB2 said:

    Voters aren’t going to forget all of this in a hurry.

    Tory most seats at the next GE is surely a screaming lay @1.9

    Two years to the next election will involve a lot of water going under bridges. But yes, unless almost all the current Current cabinet are firmly away from the public mind by the next election then it’s surely going to be a hammering.
    Even if you are right - and remember how long the loss of credibility after Black Weds endured - it is surely a screaming trading bet? That Tories are favourites for most seats with this tragic psychodrama playing out, and all the bad news we know is coming down the road, is absurd.
    The material mounting up for the opposition to attack the government after all this is vast and comprehensive. No doubt they will rally around the pour soul they pick, but it is likely to be a brutal, short premiership.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 21,876

    Heathener said:

    So a stack of more resignations and Priti Patel has just called for him to go.

    Leon may be right after all on this: could today be the day?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62069494

    Good morning

    Patel asked him to go last night and resignation after resignation continues this morning

    Furthermore Johnson's attempts to appoint cabinet ministers are being publicly rejected by those asked

    He is a disgrace and anyone standing by him should have no future roll in the conservative party

    Brady should call an emergency 1922 meeting and bring forward the change in the committee needed to reject Johnson from office
    I can understand their reluctance to do so. As an executive they literally have days left. A rules change isn't just for now, its permanent. They don't want to hand over a poison legacy to their successors. Etc etc.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,644
    Scott_xP said:

    I’m deeply saddened it has come to this, but the PM should step down given public and Parliamentary confidence has clearly gone, and given the importance of integrity in public life. I’m therefore stepping down as Minister for Tech and the Digital Economy now https://twitter.com/CPhilpOfficial/status/1544939888931635200/photo/1

    His resignation letter is great: “If the Government requires any practical assistance in getting the Bill through the Commons Report Stage, given the current scarcity of Ministers, I would be happy to provide it.”
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,624
    In other news 'Downblousing' to be made illegal.

    You really couldn't make this ridiculous country up!

    It can't all be Boris's fault though when you have a clown in charge perhaps everything looks like a circus

  • RattersRatters Posts: 484
    Starmer should call a vote of no confidence today:

    1) It's the constitutionally correct way to remove a Prime Minister who no longer has the confidence of the Commons

    2) Politically it either results in Boris being ejected or in lots of Tories being forced to explain why they voted that they have confidence when they have publicly said they do not, the nuances of which will be lost on most people.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,497
    Foxy said:

    As others observed yesterday:

    Mr Meeks:

    I’ve already made this point once but I’ll make it again. Given the last 36 hours, is it likely that the Tories would let Boris Johnson remain as Prime Minister while they select a new leader? Who would serve in his Cabinet?

    I don’t think so. So there will be a stopgap PM.


    https://twitter.com/alastairmeeks/status/1544879436952117253

    Surely key criterion is not wanting job permanently - which might favour May over Raab, for example.

    Or a permanent one is coronated.

    The other alternative is that there are several rounds of MP voting over a week and then extreme pressure is put on all the others to withdraw following the final round to skip the members vote.

    This only took 12 days for May in 2016.
    Coronations do not have a great track record, looking at May and Brown. A proper debate on direction and policy is needed. Not that the nutcases of the Tory membership are the best judges.
    A messed up GE was not inevitable - up to them the coronation of May had been going fine.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,523
    One important point is that there is no chance that Boris will be allowed to 'stay on' for the period of time of a leadership election.

    We need a new PM, and we need one by teatime, No election/leadership fight.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 9,061
    kjh said:

    tlg86 said:

    Gavin Barwell live on LBC saying what I just said - we need to change the system as it is currently predicated on the PM being a good faith actor.

    Not really, as @MarqueeMark says, the 22 could have changed the rules last night. That they didn't shows that as much as lots of people want the PM gone, they're prepared to let this nonsense continue a little longer because they think that is better than looking like they've changed the rules of the game.
    And what if he doesn't go after losing a vonc of Tory MPs?
    Then at least there can be a vote of no confidence in the Commons, which would pass by an overwhelming majority, and the Queen can dismiss him if necessary without any controversy.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,919
    edited July 2022

    Heathener said:

    So a stack of more resignations and Priti Patel has just called for him to go.

    Leon may be right after all on this: could today be the day?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62069494

    Good morning

    Patel asked him to go last night and resignation after resignation continues this morning

    Furthermore Johnson's attempts to appoint cabinet ministers are being publicly rejected by those asked

    He is a disgrace and anyone standing by him should have no future roll in the conservative party

    Brady should call an emergency 1922 meeting and bring forward the change in the committee needed to reject Johnson from office
    I can understand their reluctance to do so. As an executive they literally have days left. A rules change isn't just for now, its permanent. They don't want to hand over a poison legacy to their successors. Etc etc.
    The ability to appoint and eject a pm should perhaps be for the commons, not the 1922 committee.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,511
    I’ve been saying for months that Boris is set for life because he will get squillions for his memoirs. And this will only add to the cash value - some drama at the end

    But he is now sailing close to the wind. I can see the disgrace being so deep he will struggle to get a serious publisher in the UK, at least for a while - and he will want money soon

    That might focus him
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 23,348
    Suella Braverman on the Today programme right now.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,622

    Johnson now significantly ahead of May in the ministerial resignation stakes:

    https://twitter.com/timd_ifg/status/1544939212994220033

    The other irony for the liar king is that he's now going to be ejected quickly, rather than having a few months in office while a successor is chosen - and hence won't end quite so far up the PMs' league table of service
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,368
    Since it is looking as though the men in grey suits are not up to it, surely it is time for the men in white coats?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,744

    dixiedean said:

    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    Here's my amateur opinion on why Johnson is hanging on.

    He knows the gig is up. It's mate-in-two-against-any-defence.

    However, rather than resign, the story going forward will be much different if he is instead VONCd by the 1922 changing the rules, either today or Monday.

    Firstly, the story will all be about him being VONCd. Why he's being VONCd (Pincher, Partygate or a hundred other scandals) will be secondary. And to a great mass of the public, that's the story he'll pitch. He was unfairly robbed by second-rate politicians who changed the rules just to get rid of him.

    It's the Trump playbook. You didn't lose, the game was rigged against you by cheats. I don't think Johnson has the same bizarre 'I never lost' core of his personality like Trump, but he's also seen how you can become the Ayatollah in exile by doing so.

    So he get's VONCd, and hangs around in the background as the potential saviour as the country goes to the dogs with inflation, strikes and gas bills.

    Thatcher fantasized about doing this herself but she was stymied because firstly she resigned, and secondly she made it known Major was her successor. Then Major went and won the next election anyway.

    Johnson has worked this out. He'll endorse nobody and keep his team of sycophants (Mogg, Dorries etc.) around to brief against the new PM. Undermine enough and hopefully you have a hung parliament with Labour in government and Johnson is the chosen one to reclaim the majority.

    Will it work? I doubt it. But I wouldn't bet against Trump winning in 2024 either.

    Brits aren’t Americans. And Conservative voters aren’t Republican voters.

    He is trashing his reputation, and most likely that of his party, beyond repair. It’s going to be a generation before they recover from this. With any luck, this will forever tarnish Brexit into the bargain.

    One could almost say that we are watching the ending of an era before our eyes, but don’t realise it yet.
    Centre-right voters will largely be relieved that he's gone. People say "X Party will never govern again because of this" and then they're back in the lead in the polls a year later.

    The manner of his departure makes it easier for the Conservatives to move on. He is entirely bereft of grace and dignity, unlike Thatcher, Cameron, or May, so nobody is going to be flying the flag for him after he goes. He might try hanging around like a bad fart in a lift, but 90% of Conservative MPs will want nothing to do with him.
    I get that.
    But he's still hugely popular with many voters. He could cause endless years of headache for the Tories were he minded to.
    The limping limpet act is going to make it a whole lot easier for people to walk away from him.

    There's no money in it for him "doing a Heath" and sulking from the backbenchers.

    It is quite possible he will have resigned as an MP by 10 pm tonight.
    When he goes, he will resign as MP too. He doesn't want to be on the back benches, though his monetary value as a speaker is fast receding.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 28,157

    As you probably know I am a long-standing federalist who has posted on here that we need to significantly reform many of the institutions and unwritten guff that is our constitution.

    This is a prime example of why. We have a rogue Prime Minister. He refuses to quit. Claims a mass mandate that literally doesn't exist in the real world. Is likely to ignore the Tory party. Even if they refuse to serve in his cabinet it remains in his remit to call an election - I AM KING style.

    We really have to sort this out. The fallacy that "I have a mandate" is one that many many voters actually believe to be true. How many people say "I voted for Boris" when they did not?

    Morning RP.

    I actually think you have this exactly the wrong way round. You quite rightly claim that Johnson is wrong with his 'I have a Mandate'' claims but your answer is to put in place someone who would have exactly that mandate and could behave as Johnson has with absolutely no recourse at all.

    We can all agree that a lot of the players are handling this badly by not removing him at the earliest opportunity but the fact remains they do have the power to do so if they choose. What you are suggesting would make that far more difficult and make any putative President Johnson's claims legally valid.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,690
    How have the markets reacted to the political chaos of the past few days?

    So far they're brushing it off — the pound is relatively quiet: marginally firmer against the dollar and relatively steady versus euro and yen

    Latest: bloom.bg/3yrdf3c


    https://twitter.com/bloomberguk/status/1544943909884788736?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 11,194

    Gavin Barwell live on LBC saying what I just said - we need to change the system as it is currently predicated on the PM being a good faith actor.

    We just need to go directly to the formal procedures earlier in the process - a vote of no confidence - instead of relying on people anticipating what is inevitable.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 21,876

    I don’t see how this helps Wallace’s or Truss’s leadership ambitions. If they’re seeking to inherit all the Johnson supporters… well, there aren’t very many of them left, so what’s the point?

    The rational thing for Wallace and Truss to do would be to 'do a Braverman'.

    Go on TV and say that the PM has to go, but as there is a war on the country you will be fulfilling your duty as Defence Secretary/Foreign Secretary and your first responsibility is to the country, not the Prime Minister.

    That was seriously impressive and eloquent by Braverman last night. 👍
    It was impressive alright - have never seen anything like it. With respect to her "I can't quit, I'm the Attorney General for England, I'm important" - she's a hugely discredited figure with a reputation for having no clue what she is doing handing out legal opinions that few other senior lawyers believe is valid.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,497
    pigeon said:

    The 1922 Committee needs to change the rules rapidly so MPs can put the mad dog down.

    Quite. Christ alone knows why they haven't already. My own best guess is that the failure to act is down to a veto by rump loyalists occupying seats on the current committee. Prolonging the agony like this clearly helps no-one.
    For May supposedly the threat of changing the rules convinced her it was time. Perhaps they thought Boris had got the same message, which was foolish.

    Or they too take the absurd position its unfair to change the rules even if you're allowed to and the group members want to.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,709
    kjh said:

    tlg86 said:

    Gavin Barwell live on LBC saying what I just said - we need to change the system as it is currently predicated on the PM being a good faith actor.

    Not really, as @MarqueeMark says, the 22 could have changed the rules last night. That they didn't shows that as much as lots of people want the PM gone, they're prepared to let this nonsense continue a little longer because they think that is better than looking like they've changed the rules of the game.
    And what if he doesn't go after losing a vonc of Tory MPs?
    Black op?
    Been done before.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 25,243
    Chris said:

    If the now 52 resignations are added to the 148 who voted against in the last VONC, we're up to 200.

    When do we get to half the government?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,855
    Chris said:

    If the now 52 resignations are added to the 148 who voted against in the last VONC, we're up to 200.

    I think there'll be a bit of double counting in that, also there are some loyal backbenchers still. Chope for instance. But yes he'd clearly lose an internal VONC.
  • Heathener said:

    So a stack of more resignations and Priti Patel has just called for him to go.

    Leon may be right after all on this: could today be the day?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62069494

    Good morning

    Patel asked him to go last night and resignation after resignation continues this morning

    Furthermore Johnson's attempts to appoint cabinet ministers are being publicly rejected by those asked

    He is a disgrace and anyone standing by him should have no future roll in the conservative party

    Brady should call an emergency 1922 meeting and bring forward the change in the committee needed to reject Johnson from office
    I can understand their reluctance to do so. As an executive they literally have days left. A rules change isn't just for now, its permanent. They don't want to hand over a poison legacy to their successors. Etc etc.
    They could relatively easily set a very high hurdle, though, with little relevance for the future. For example, they could say they will only hold a second confidence vote if more than HALF of all Tory MPs request it. They'd easily get those numbers.

    Also, rule changes are not "permanent". The new Executive could, once Johnson is gone, quietly revert to the old rules on a simple majority.
  • JonWC said:

    Raab still seems like a decent bet even in the teens, with Frost saying Boris must go immediately.

    The market terms are on a permanent next PM - they'd not pay out on a someone stepping in as caretaker (which in any event wouldn't necessarily be him - "deputy PM" isn't like VP in the USA, as it has no formal constitutional status and we often don't bother with one).

    And if you're saying he has a chance in a subsequent leadership contest, I've got some magic beans I'd like to sell you.
    Oh damn, I bet on Raab yesterday due to people here repeatedly saying there's no such thing as interim PM. Just checked the Smarkets market rules and you're right.

    Interim or caretaker prime ministers will not count towards the settlement of this market.

    This market, where possible, will be settled according to the UK government website (https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers/prime-minister).

    Clarification 1 Feb 2022 11:00 The question of whether an individual would count as an interim or caretaker will, if possible, be resolved by the official government page linked to above e.g. if somebody takes over the responsibilities of a PM who has resigned and left the government, that person will count as the next PM if they are listed as such unless the listing describes them as temporary, interim or similar.


    Though the final line could be key, they could be said to be an interim PM in the news but if it isn't listed on the website then supposedly they'll pay out.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,622
    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    This continuing fiasco is on the 22. We could have had a VONC at 6pm last night. The Cabinet members could have made it clear they would be voting NC. By 8pm, the process of replacement would have started under an interim PM, probably Theresa May.

    Needs a breakfast rethink, Brady.

    [...]

    However I still have a feeling - perhaps deluded - that Boris will wake up (alone?) and look at another day of painful ridicule and absurdity, with the Queen tutting away, and he will think OK OK enough I’m done
    No chance, according to Petronella who predicted just this situation:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10988473/Boris-Johnsons-ex-girlfriend-Petronella-Wyatt-says-PM-bereft-humility-NEVER-resign.html

    Most of us have the 'luxury' of reconciling the reality of our life's achievements with the dreams of our youth over a number of years (and even then a fair few of us go off the rails in a variety of well rehearsed ways) - for Johnson, reality has shattered his lifetime's dream in a single week. It's no wonder he can't cope.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,690
    Totally wild. Attorney General (for now) Suella Braverman is in the @BBCr4today hotseat but not as a booked Government guest, as a Tory who has made her own leadership bid and wants the PM to go.

    https://twitter.com/kateemccann/status/1544944247094317064
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 25,243

    Heathener said:

    So a stack of more resignations and Priti Patel has just called for him to go.

    Leon may be right after all on this: could today be the day?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62069494

    Good morning

    Patel asked him to go last night and resignation after resignation continues this morning

    Furthermore Johnson's attempts to appoint cabinet ministers are being publicly rejected by those asked

    He is a disgrace and anyone standing by him should have no future roll in the conservative party

    Brady should call an emergency 1922 meeting and bring forward the change in the committee needed to reject Johnson from office
    I can understand their reluctance to do so. As an executive they literally have days left. A rules change isn't just for now, its permanent. They don't want to hand over a poison legacy to their successors. Etc etc.
    No it isn't.
    They could change the rules back the next day.
  • Cartlidge goes. So disappointed he didn't say he was torn

  • ChrisChris Posts: 9,061
    I'm losing count. Is that seven resignations so far today?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,695
    Chris said:

    If the now 52 resignations are added to the 148 who voted against in the last VONC, we're up to 200.

    Are we sure some of the 52 weren't already in the 148?

    I bet Sunak was.

    Boris will clearly lose the next vote though.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 21,876

    As you probably know I am a long-standing federalist who has posted on here that we need to significantly reform many of the institutions and unwritten guff that is our constitution.

    This is a prime example of why. We have a rogue Prime Minister. He refuses to quit. Claims a mass mandate that literally doesn't exist in the real world. Is likely to ignore the Tory party. Even if they refuse to serve in his cabinet it remains in his remit to call an election - I AM KING style.

    We really have to sort this out. The fallacy that "I have a mandate" is one that many many voters actually believe to be true. How many people say "I voted for Boris" when they did not?

    Sorry but you could not have this more wrong.

    What is happening at the moment shows the remarkable underlying strength, durability and flexibility of our unwritten constitution.

    Despite "the written rules" saying that Boris was safe to be Prime Minister for another 12 months, in the space of 24-72 hours it is all coming to an end and he will be out of office shortly. Increasingly possibly after a visit from the men in white coats, and the ones in grey suits failed.

    When this has happened in countries with "written rules" the flexibility to adapt to a situation like this is much tougher, and the ability of those in power to try to abuse the rules to drag out and remain in power ends up being to their advantage, rather than the nation's advantage.

    Trump could stay in office for months after he lost the election, degrading his office even further, within "the written rules". Boris's end is being measured in hours/days not months and our system is working, Boris is just in denial and this is a very sad and ridiculous end.
    The written rules are those of the Conservative Party. I am talking about the unwritten rules relating to the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. Constitutionally it is perfectly valid for them to remove him as leader and him to say "I am staying on as Prime Minister". Madness, but possible. How do we remove him when the Tories can't and he then tries to force an election?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 24,000
    dixiedean said:

    Heathener said:

    So a stack of more resignations and Priti Patel has just called for him to go.

    Leon may be right after all on this: could today be the day?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62069494

    Good morning

    Patel asked him to go last night and resignation after resignation continues this morning

    Furthermore Johnson's attempts to appoint cabinet ministers are being publicly rejected by those asked

    He is a disgrace and anyone standing by him should have no future roll in the conservative party

    Brady should call an emergency 1922 meeting and bring forward the change in the committee needed to reject Johnson from office
    I can understand their reluctance to do so. As an executive they literally have days left. A rules change isn't just for now, its permanent. They don't want to hand over a poison legacy to their successors. Etc etc.
    No it isn't.
    They could change the rules back the next day.
    And they're not really rules, more like guidelines.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,709
    Roger said:

    In other news 'Downblousing' to be made illegal.

    You really couldn't make this ridiculous country up!

    It can't all be Boris's fault though when you have a clown in charge perhaps everything looks like a circus

    Not many of Sean’s hobbies left.
This discussion has been closed.