Keir and loathing in Durham – politicalbetting.com

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Keir and loathing in Durham – politicalbetting.com

NW Durham Tory MP @RicHolden said: ‘The fact that court action has been mentioned is a sign of just how seriously both the police and witnesses are taking this.‘It shows all bases are being rightly covered in case Keir Starmer, decided to challenge any potential fines in court’

Read the full story here

IshmaelZ

Don't think he will be fined

Don't see how his resignation puts pressure on phatboi. He'll just say Circs completely different, I shall continue to get the big calls right.

IshmaelZ

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62025612

SIX new Pincher claims

StuartDickson

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

Rather oddly, tucked at the very bottom of yesterday’s Techne poll tables, there is this gem. Don’t believe it has been reported anywhere?

Should Scotland be an independent country?

UK:
No 69%
Yes 10%
DK 21%
(Sample size 1,632; 29-30 June)

Scotland:
No 46%
Yes 39%
DK 15%
(Oversample 374 cases
Total sample 501 interviews;
Margin of error + - 4,4%)

So the UK electorate backs the UK government's refusal to allow an official indyref2 even on that poll

Non sequitur du jour.

rcs1000

IshmaelZ said:

Don't think he will be fined

Don't see how his resignation puts pressure on phatboi. He'll just say Circs completely different, I shall continue to get the big calls right.

Yes, TSE seems to be mistaking Johnson for a man with a sense of shame. In the event that Starmer was fined and fell on his sword, it is as likely that Johnson would proclaim it as a great victory, and a sign that the Labour Party was even more corrupt than the Conservatives.

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

F1: interesting qualifying. Bit surprised Sainz is on pole but good for him. He got the time ahead of Verstappen, who had slightly better conditions.

Think Red Bull likely to do well in the race. Suspect Mercedes will remain best of the rest.

Morris_Dancer

Ah, seems Leclerc spinning cost Verstappen another chance to get pole. Still good for the Spaniard, though.

Edited extra bit: also, it's bloody weird that Hamilton's 11 for the win and Perez is 17. The Mexican starts ahead of him. In a probably (very likely) faster car. And that advantage should be bigger in the dry (Hamilton's very good in wet, which was the qualifying condition).

Anyway, browsing the markets...

ydoethur

rcs1000 said:

IshmaelZ said:

Don't think he will be fined

Don't see how his resignation puts pressure on phatboi. He'll just say Circs completely different, I shall continue to get the big calls right.

Yes, TSE seems to be mistaking Johnson for a man with a sense of shame. In the event that Starmer was fined and fell on his sword, it is as likely that Johnson would proclaim it as a great victory, and a sign that the Labour Party was even more corrupt than the Conservatives.

If he is fined, the ones with the most awkward questions will be Durham police. How was Starmer dined* for this when Cummings was let off flagrant and repeated breaches of actual quarantine and subsequently lying about his reasons for doing so?

It does tell me however that the regulations were utterly shambolic (albeit I knew that already).

*That was a typo, but I’m leaving it in!

Casino_Royale

FPT - I've had my bottom pinched in nightclubs by women and, more commonly I'm afraid, by men too. I won't go into creepy Tory MPs but I've had a couple of those too when I was a teenager in Conservative Future and they were lecherous men too.

It's always inappropriate. Firstly, it's a total shock and surprise (like a total stranger slapping you, WTF?) and it often hurts depending on how much flesh they squeeze. Moreover, even if I was interested the 'pincher' invariably disappears into the crowd almost instantly, so how do you follow up? And even if you did what would you say? "Nice pinch! Fancy a drink?"

Weird and stupid. Intrusive. Rude. Not a compliment.

If you're interested let's exchange glances a few times and then come and talk to me.

rcs1000

Casino_Royale said:

FPT - I've had my bottom pinched in nightclubs by women and, more commonly I'm afraid, by men too. I won't go into creepy Tory MPs but I've had a couple of those too when I was a teenager in Conservative Future and they were lecherous men too.

It's always inappropriate. Firstly, it's a total shock and surprise (like a total stranger slapping you, WTF?) and it often hurts depending on how much flesh they squeeze. Moreover, even if I was interested the 'pincher' invariably disappears into the crowd almost instantly, so how do you follow up? And even if you did what would you say? "Nice pinch! Fancy a drink?"

Weird and stupid. Intrusive. Rude. Not a compliment.

If you're interested let's exchange glances a few times and then come and talk to me.

You should count yourself lucky. Some men - like @Leon - have never had their bottom pinched by an attractive woman (or man), and spend the rest of their lives compensating by calling their peers "cucks".

ydoethur

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

FPT - I've had my bottom pinched in nightclubs by women and, more commonly I'm afraid, by men too. I won't go into creepy Tory MPs but I've had a couple of those too when I was a teenager in Conservative Future and they were lecherous men too.

It's always inappropriate. Firstly, it's a total shock and surprise (like a total stranger slapping you, WTF?) and it often hurts depending on how much flesh they squeeze. Moreover, even if I was interested the 'pincher' invariably disappears into the crowd almost instantly, so how do you follow up? And even if you did what would you say? "Nice pinch! Fancy a drink?"

Weird and stupid. Intrusive. Rude. Not a compliment.

If you're interested let's exchange glances a few times and then come and talk to me.

You should count yourself lucky. Some men - like @Leon - have never had their bottom pinched by an attractive woman (or man), and spend the rest of their lives compensating by calling their peers "cucks".

Astonishing really.
When you consider he’s a supplier of free dildos too…

Morris_Dancer

Betting Post

F1: is this a tip I see before me? No, it's two tips:
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2022/07/uk-pre-race-2022.html

Backed Perez at 19 each way to win (third the odds top 2), with a hedge set up at 3 just in case. And backed all four Ferrari/Red Bull drivers to DNF with a single stake split evenly. Not heroic, but they've averaged one DNF over the course of the last four races (only Monaco did not have one).

IanB2

ydoethur said:

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

FPT - I've had my bottom pinched in nightclubs by women and, more commonly I'm afraid, by men too. I won't go into creepy Tory MPs but I've had a couple of those too when I was a teenager in Conservative Future and they were lecherous men too.

It's always inappropriate. Firstly, it's a total shock and surprise (like a total stranger slapping you, WTF?) and it often hurts depending on how much flesh they squeeze. Moreover, even if I was interested the 'pincher' invariably disappears into the crowd almost instantly, so how do you follow up? And even if you did what would you say? "Nice pinch! Fancy a drink?"

Weird and stupid. Intrusive. Rude. Not a compliment.

If you're interested let's exchange glances a few times and then come and talk to me.

You should count yourself lucky. Some men - like @Leon - have never had their bottom pinched by an attractive woman (or man), and spend the rest of their lives compensating by calling their peers "cucks".

Astonishing really.
When you consider he’s a supplier of free dildos too…

More likely the truth is that he can’t even give them away - for some reason he keeps making them too small.

ydoethur

IanB2 said:

ydoethur said:

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

FPT - I've had my bottom pinched in nightclubs by women and, more commonly I'm afraid, by men too. I won't go into creepy Tory MPs but I've had a couple of those too when I was a teenager in Conservative Future and they were lecherous men too.

It's always inappropriate. Firstly, it's a total shock and surprise (like a total stranger slapping you, WTF?) and it often hurts depending on how much flesh they squeeze. Moreover, even if I was interested the 'pincher' invariably disappears into the crowd almost instantly, so how do you follow up? And even if you did what would you say? "Nice pinch! Fancy a drink?"

Weird and stupid. Intrusive. Rude. Not a compliment.

If you're interested let's exchange glances a few times and then come and talk to me.

You should count yourself lucky. Some men - like @Leon - have never had their bottom pinched by an attractive woman (or man), and spend the rest of their lives compensating by calling their peers "cucks".

Astonishing really.
When you consider he’s a supplier of free dildos too…

More likely the truth is that he can’t even give them away - for some reason he keeps making them too small.

I think you're a bit hard on him there.

OldKingCole

Good morning everyone; bright and sunny here today again!
Essex cricket was extremely good yesterday!

On topic, I think it will be a disaster if Starmer is fined. I think he'll keep his promise to resign and Johnson will go all pseudo-moral about how he didn't have to resign. I think to that it might actually encourage him to go for a general election, as was suggested yesterday!

Stuartinromford

rcs1000 said:

IshmaelZ said:

Don't think he will be fined

Don't see how his resignation puts pressure on phatboi. He'll just say Circs completely different, I shall continue to get the big calls right.

Yes, TSE seems to be mistaking Johnson for a man with a sense of shame. In the event that Starmer was fined and fell on his sword, it is as likely that Johnson would proclaim it as a great victory, and a sign that the Labour Party was even more corrupt than the Conservatives.

No doubt Johnson will say that, but will the remaining BoJo Backers buy it?
Many will, because they still want to believe, but it's another thing that makes it morally expensive to keep Big Dog.

And given that Starmer, for all his qualities, isn't ideal casting as Next PM, how does replacing him with a shiny new person help Johnson?

The only denouement that helps Boris is where Starmer is FPN'd but clings on. That seems unlikely. The mistake Johnson and his acolytes made was to assume that their opponent would process the situation the same way they would. A common mistake if you think the world revolves around you.

ThomasNashe

OldKingCole said:

Good morning everyone; bright and sunny here today again!
Essex cricket was extremely good yesterday!

On topic, I think it will be a disaster if Starmer is fined. I think he'll keep his promise to resign and Johnson will go all pseudo-moral about how he didn't have to resign. I think to that it might actually encourage him to go for a general election, as was suggested yesterday!

I think one thing that has been proved time and again is voters punish those who call unnecessary elections.

ydoethur

Stuartinromford said:

rcs1000 said:

IshmaelZ said:

Don't think he will be fined

Don't see how his resignation puts pressure on phatboi. He'll just say Circs completely different, I shall continue to get the big calls right.

Yes, TSE seems to be mistaking Johnson for a man with a sense of shame. In the event that Starmer was fined and fell on his sword, it is as likely that Johnson would proclaim it as a great victory, and a sign that the Labour Party was even more corrupt than the Conservatives.

No doubt Johnson will say that, but will the remaining BoJo Backers buy it?
Many will, because they still want to believe, but it's another thing that makes it morally expensive to keep Big Dog.

And given that Starmer, for all his qualities, isn't ideal casting as Next PM, how does replacing him with a shiny new person help Johnson?

The only denouement that helps Boris is where Starmer is FPN'd but clings on. That seems unlikely. The mistake Johnson and his acolytes made was to assume that their opponent would process the situation the same way they would. A common mistake if you think the world revolves around you.

Wow. Calling Johnson common?

He'll never forgive that...

kjh

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

Rather oddly, tucked at the very bottom of yesterday’s Techne poll tables, there is this gem. Don’t believe it has been reported anywhere?

Should Scotland be an independent country?

UK:
No 69%
Yes 10%
DK 21%
(Sample size 1,632; 29-30 June)

Scotland:
No 46%
Yes 39%
DK 15%
(Oversample 374 cases
Total sample 501 interviews;
Margin of error + - 4,4%)

So the UK electorate backs the UK government's refusal to allow an official indyref2 even on that poll

Non sequitur du jour.

I don't think @hyufd will understand. I tried to think of an analogy. Best I could think of was 'Because the government was leading in the polls the UK electorate backs the UK governments refusal to allow an election even on that poll.'. However I wasn't sure of suggesting it as I thought he might agree and we are in dictator territory using hyufd's impeccable logic.

OldKingCole

ThomasNashe said:

OldKingCole said:

Good morning everyone; bright and sunny here today again!
Essex cricket was extremely good yesterday!

On topic, I think it will be a disaster if Starmer is fined. I think he'll keep his promise to resign and Johnson will go all pseudo-moral about how he didn't have to resign. I think to that it might actually encourage him to go for a general election, as was suggested yesterday!

I think one thing that has been proved time and again is voters punish those who call unnecessary elections.

While I agree with you I don't think that would necessarily stop Johnson. I think he thinks he's exceptional, the normal rules do not apply to him, and therefore he would be able to have another five years.
That he might be proved to be catastrophically wrong will not occur to him!

OnlyLivingBoy

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

FPT - I've had my bottom pinched in nightclubs by women and, more commonly I'm afraid, by men too. I won't go into creepy Tory MPs but I've had a couple of those too when I was a teenager in Conservative Future and they were lecherous men too.

It's always inappropriate. Firstly, it's a total shock and surprise (like a total stranger slapping you, WTF?) and it often hurts depending on how much flesh they squeeze. Moreover, even if I was interested the 'pincher' invariably disappears into the crowd almost instantly, so how do you follow up? And even if you did what would you say? "Nice pinch! Fancy a drink?"

Weird and stupid. Intrusive. Rude. Not a compliment.

If you're interested let's exchange glances a few times and then come and talk to me.

You should count yourself lucky. Some men - like @Leon - have never had their bottom pinched by an attractive woman (or man), and spend the rest of their lives compensating by calling their peers "cucks".

Nobody has ever pinched my bum 😢

kjh

OnlyLivingBoy said:

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

FPT - I've had my bottom pinched in nightclubs by women and, more commonly I'm afraid, by men too. I won't go into creepy Tory MPs but I've had a couple of those too when I was a teenager in Conservative Future and they were lecherous men too.

It's always inappropriate. Firstly, it's a total shock and surprise (like a total stranger slapping you, WTF?) and it often hurts depending on how much flesh they squeeze. Moreover, even if I was interested the 'pincher' invariably disappears into the crowd almost instantly, so how do you follow up? And even if you did what would you say? "Nice pinch! Fancy a drink?"

Weird and stupid. Intrusive. Rude. Not a compliment.

If you're interested let's exchange glances a few times and then come and talk to me.

You should count yourself lucky. Some men - like @Leon - have never had their bottom pinched by an attractive woman (or man), and spend the rest of their lives compensating by calling their peers "cucks".

Nobody has ever pinched my bum 😢

Ditto. Feeling rather depressed now this morning.

OnlyLivingBoy

ThomasNashe said:

OldKingCole said:

Good morning everyone; bright and sunny here today again!
Essex cricket was extremely good yesterday!

On topic, I think it will be a disaster if Starmer is fined. I think he'll keep his promise to resign and Johnson will go all pseudo-moral about how he didn't have to resign. I think to that it might actually encourage him to go for a general election, as was suggested yesterday!

I think one thing that has been proved time and again is voters punish those who call unnecessary elections.

I think the true lessons of recent years are that (a) the worst outcome always happens and (b) Johnson always gets away with it. So I would expect if Starmer resigns then Johnson calls an election with Labour in disarray and wins it.

Casino_Royale

OnlyLivingBoy said:

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

FPT - I've had my bottom pinched in nightclubs by women and, more commonly I'm afraid, by men too. I won't go into creepy Tory MPs but I've had a couple of those too when I was a teenager in Conservative Future and they were lecherous men too.

It's always inappropriate. Firstly, it's a total shock and surprise (like a total stranger slapping you, WTF?) and it often hurts depending on how much flesh they squeeze. Moreover, even if I was interested the 'pincher' invariably disappears into the crowd almost instantly, so how do you follow up? And even if you did what would you say? "Nice pinch! Fancy a drink?"

Weird and stupid. Intrusive. Rude. Not a compliment.

If you're interested let's exchange glances a few times and then come and talk to me.

You should count yourself lucky. Some men - like @Leon - have never had their bottom pinched by an attractive woman (or man), and spend the rest of their lives compensating by calling their peers "cucks".

Nobody has ever pinched my bum 😢

Where do you live?

Scott_xP

And now, as per the Sunday Times, we know why. Cabinet Office officials were busy carrying out an ethics and propriety review. https://twitter.com/JackElsom/status/1491064527206912002

JosiasJessop

OnlyLivingBoy said:

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

FPT - I've had my bottom pinched in nightclubs by women and, more commonly I'm afraid, by men too. I won't go into creepy Tory MPs but I've had a couple of those too when I was a teenager in Conservative Future and they were lecherous men too.

It's always inappropriate. Firstly, it's a total shock and surprise (like a total stranger slapping you, WTF?) and it often hurts depending on how much flesh they squeeze. Moreover, even if I was interested the 'pincher' invariably disappears into the crowd almost instantly, so how do you follow up? And even if you did what would you say? "Nice pinch! Fancy a drink?"

Weird and stupid. Intrusive. Rude. Not a compliment.

If you're interested let's exchange glances a few times and then come and talk to me.

You should count yourself lucky. Some men - like @Leon - have never had their bottom pinched by an attractive woman (or man), and spend the rest of their lives compensating by calling their peers "cucks".

Nobody has ever pinched my bum 😢

I got wolf-whistled by a group of women a few weeks back, whilst I was out running. I felt in no way threatened by them, so took it as a compliment.

I've never had my bottom pinched by a woman (well, at least one I didn't know...), but it was a fairly common occurrence from men in clubs, especially gay clubs.

I got groped by a gay boss once. On my privates. Whilst we were in the office. It was not appreciated.

Different times...

Scott_xP

Downing St threat to deselect rebel Tories https://www.mailplus.co.uk/edition/news/politics/198032?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=shared_link via @mailplus

OldKingCole

OnlyLivingBoy said:

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

FPT - I've had my bottom pinched in nightclubs by women and, more commonly I'm afraid, by men too. I won't go into creepy Tory MPs but I've had a couple of those too when I was a teenager in Conservative Future and they were lecherous men too.

It's always inappropriate. Firstly, it's a total shock and surprise (like a total stranger slapping you, WTF?) and it often hurts depending on how much flesh they squeeze. Moreover, even if I was interested the 'pincher' invariably disappears into the crowd almost instantly, so how do you follow up? And even if you did what would you say? "Nice pinch! Fancy a drink?"

Weird and stupid. Intrusive. Rude. Not a compliment.

If you're interested let's exchange glances a few times and then come and talk to me.

You should count yourself lucky. Some men - like @Leon - have never had their bottom pinched by an attractive woman (or man), and spend the rest of their lives compensating by calling their peers "cucks".

Nobody has ever pinched my bum 😢

I've had a peck on the cheek from an attractive female in a very unexpected situation!

OldKingCole

It's perhaps not surprising that none of the males here are admitting to ever behaving in inappropriately!

OnlyLivingBoy

Casino_Royale said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

FPT - I've had my bottom pinched in nightclubs by women and, more commonly I'm afraid, by men too. I won't go into creepy Tory MPs but I've had a couple of those too when I was a teenager in Conservative Future and they were lecherous men too.

It's always inappropriate. Firstly, it's a total shock and surprise (like a total stranger slapping you, WTF?) and it often hurts depending on how much flesh they squeeze. Moreover, even if I was interested the 'pincher' invariably disappears into the crowd almost instantly, so how do you follow up? And even if you did what would you say? "Nice pinch! Fancy a drink?"

Weird and stupid. Intrusive. Rude. Not a compliment.

If you're interested let's exchange glances a few times and then come and talk to me.

You should count yourself lucky. Some men - like @Leon - have never had their bottom pinched by an attractive woman (or man), and spend the rest of their lives compensating by calling their peers "cucks".

Nobody has ever pinched my bum 😢

Where do you live?

South East London. But it never happened growing up in Scotland or at Uni either, or any of the other places I have lived. I suspect it owes more to me than my location. Or maybe it's because I have been in a relationship since I was 18.

Casino_Royale

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Casino_Royale said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

FPT - I've had my bottom pinched in nightclubs by women and, more commonly I'm afraid, by men too. I won't go into creepy Tory MPs but I've had a couple of those too when I was a teenager in Conservative Future and they were lecherous men too.

It's always inappropriate. Firstly, it's a total shock and surprise (like a total stranger slapping you, WTF?) and it often hurts depending on how much flesh they squeeze. Moreover, even if I was interested the 'pincher' invariably disappears into the crowd almost instantly, so how do you follow up? And even if you did what would you say? "Nice pinch! Fancy a drink?"

Weird and stupid. Intrusive. Rude. Not a compliment.

If you're interested let's exchange glances a few times and then come and talk to me.

You should count yourself lucky. Some men - like @Leon - have never had their bottom pinched by an attractive woman (or man), and spend the rest of their lives compensating by calling their peers "cucks".

Nobody has ever pinched my bum 😢

Where do you live?

South East London. But it never happened growing up in Scotland or at Uni either, or any of the other places I have lived. I suspect it owes more to me than my location. Or maybe it's because I have been in a relationship since I was 18.

I was going to offer to come round..

Scott_xP

EXC: Chris Pincher brought a young Tory activist to a private property in his constituency where he allegedly touched him against his will

Male activist says Pincher first invited him for drinks then started massaging him and trying to undo his shirt https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/575e4728-fa24-11ec-9dc9-dea4f592180c?shareToken=e21ef9c5ff2141936374af48d173b400

ydoethur

Scott_xP said:

Downing St threat to deselect rebel Tories https://www.mailplus.co.uk/edition/news/politics/198032?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=shared_link via @mailplus

If disgraced and rebel Tory MPs are deselected, does that create a vacancy in Uxbridge?

OnlyLivingBoy

Casino_Royale said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Casino_Royale said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

FPT - I've had my bottom pinched in nightclubs by women and, more commonly I'm afraid, by men too. I won't go into creepy Tory MPs but I've had a couple of those too when I was a teenager in Conservative Future and they were lecherous men too.

It's always inappropriate. Firstly, it's a total shock and surprise (like a total stranger slapping you, WTF?) and it often hurts depending on how much flesh they squeeze. Moreover, even if I was interested the 'pincher' invariably disappears into the crowd almost instantly, so how do you follow up? And even if you did what would you say? "Nice pinch! Fancy a drink?"

Weird and stupid. Intrusive. Rude. Not a compliment.

If you're interested let's exchange glances a few times and then come and talk to me.

You should count yourself lucky. Some men - like @Leon - have never had their bottom pinched by an attractive woman (or man), and spend the rest of their lives compensating by calling their peers "cucks".

Nobody has ever pinched my bum 😢

Where do you live?

South East London. But it never happened growing up in Scotland or at Uni either, or any of the other places I have lived. I suspect it owes more to me than my location. Or maybe it's because I have been in a relationship since I was 18.

I was going to offer to come round..

Aww thanks.
I guess there was a bit of stuff on the dance floor or at carnival when I lived in the Caribbean but different standards apply there so it doesn't really count.

MarqueeMark

Scott_xP said:

Downing St threat to deselect rebel Tories https://www.mailplus.co.uk/edition/news/politics/198032?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=shared_link via @mailplus

That's three quarters of the backbenchers under threat of deselection.

Yeah, right.....

Carnyx

OldKingCole said:

It's perhaps not surprising that none of the males here are admitting to ever behaving in inappropriately!

Morning, OKC! I'm finding myself slightly surprised that there aren't more black eyes, broken teeth or bruised testicles amongst MPs, the impression that is being given. But maybe they trade on their soi-disant superiority and power.

OldKingCole

MarqueeMark said:

Scott_xP said:

Downing St threat to deselect rebel Tories https://www.mailplus.co.uk/edition/news/politics/198032?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=shared_link via @mailplus

That's three quarters of the backbenchers under threat of deselection.

Yeah, right.....

Also likely to infuriate constituency chairmen!

Scott_xP

Tough gig for work and pensions secretary Therese Coffey on TV this morning.

Does she hold the increasingly-untenable No10 line that the PM knew nothing about the allegations against Chris Pincher before making him chief whip?

Or does she distance herself from her boss? https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1543494526014218241/photo/1

Scott_xP

Also NB how the Sun can't cover the sex scandals properly cos a/ its 'Political Editor' used to go out with Carrie, b/ he operates as a spin doctor to dampen/suppress scandals rather than getting them for his paper. If they're booted, his source of other stories goes...
https://twitter.com/Dominic2306/status/1543162328413310977

Foxy

OldKingCole said:

It's perhaps not surprising that none of the males here are admitting to ever behaving in inappropriately!

It is going back some time, as I have been monogamous for 34 years, but I certainly misinterpreted signals when chatting up, and initiated physical contact which was not wanted, but retreated gracefully at that point.

I have been on the receiving end too, from both sexes, and more recently too. Nothing too aggressive or difficult to stop though, and to me that is the key. Initial contact should be gentle, and not genital!

Scott_xP

Carnyx said:

OldKingCole said:

It's perhaps not surprising that none of the males here are admitting to ever behaving in inappropriately!

Morning, OKC! I'm finding myself slightly surprised that there aren't more black eyes, broken teeth or bruised testicles amongst MPs, the impression that is being given. But maybe they trade on their soi-disant superiority and power.

...

StuartDickson

Yes ahead in new poll on support for Scottish independence

Yes 51%
No 49%

Support FM timetable - 43%
Oppose - 44%
Neither or DK - 13%

Panelbase/Sunday Times; 1,010

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/c4551f8a-fa1c-11ec-b060-3c9acf7f2ee6?shareToken=2c5e3da0223c880133d77f4a003724fb

DougSeal

StuartDickson said:

Yes ahead in new poll on support for Scottish independence

Yes 51%
No 49%

Support FM timetable - 43%
Oppose - 44%
Neither or DK - 13%

Panelbase/Sunday Times; 1,010

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/c4551f8a-fa1c-11ec-b060-3c9acf7f2ee6?shareToken=2c5e3da0223c880133d77f4a003724fb

That looks like a safe bet

TOPPING

My Uber driver the other day (middle aged Somalian guy) told me he is often groped and propositioned by his passengers.

Edit: female passengers

Scott_xP

Sophy Ridge: "Was the prime minister aware about allegations about his behaviour?"

Therese Coffey: "I don't believe he was aware - that's what I've been told today."

https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1543499898305347585/photo/1

Malmesbury

IshmaelZ said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62025612

SIX new Pincher claims

Rule one of human behaviour is repetition. The chance that a person has done action X only one time in their life is very small.

This is why there is a legitimate argument for publicising such cases. There are nearly always prior incidents that were not reported/covered up - when the victims see that something has been done, they are much more willing to come forward.

Scott_xP

'I don't know nuffin and you can't make me', Therese Coffey tells @RidgeOnSunday, sort of
https://twitter.com/DavidTWilcock/status/1543499667274620928

Scott_xP

StuartDickson said:

Yes ahead in new poll on support for Scottish independence

Yes 51%
No 49%

Support FM timetable - 43%
Oppose - 44%
Neither or DK - 13%

Panelbase/Sunday Times; 1,010

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/c4551f8a-fa1c-11ec-b060-3c9acf7f2ee6?shareToken=2c5e3da0223c880133d77f4a003724fb

A year and half ago panelbase had it yes 56 no 44, so if she really thinks this is very encouraging, that’s very encouraging. https://twitter.com/nicolasturgeon/status/1543289482404831233

StuartDickson

John Curtice: Time to forget about process and debate the big issue itself

If either side is to move the dial, they need to begin to argue the substantive case for or against the Union rather than simply pursuing arguments about process. For while the latter might comfort existing supporters, they are unlikely to change voters’ minds.

And changing minds is what both Nicola Sturgeon and Boris Johnson badly need to do.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/john-curtice-time-to-forget-about-process-and-debate-the-big-issue-itself-b0qs7rvxj

Malmesbury

MarqueeMark said:

Scott_xP said:

Downing St threat to deselect rebel Tories https://www.mailplus.co.uk/edition/news/politics/198032?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=shared_link via @mailplus

That's three quarters of the backbenchers under threat of deselection.

Yeah, right.....

It would be hard to think of an idea which would get the grass roots Conservative associations more onside for throwing BJ out than that.

Scott_xP

The whole system that relies on victims doing all the work to force the people with all the power to do the right thing is a problem. It provides cover for politicians who know fine well about colleagues behaviour to sit back and do nothing.
https://twitter.com/jessphillips/status/1543502250990964736
https://twitter.com/RidgeOnSunday/status/1543500383003222016

DougSeal

StuartDickson said:

John Curtice: Time to forget about process and debate the big issue itself

If either side is to move the dial, they need to begin to argue the substantive case for or against the Union rather than simply pursuing arguments about process. For while the latter might comfort existing supporters, they are unlikely to change voters’ minds.

And changing minds is what both Nicola Sturgeon and Boris Johnson badly need to do.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/john-curtice-time-to-forget-about-process-and-debate-the-big-issue-itself-
b0qs7rvxj

I’m going to break my self imposed ban on commenting on Scotland’s constitutional status to say that anyone who’s placing the future of their raison de etre (be they Unionist or Nationalist, Remain or Leave, pro or anti AV, whatever) on a 1%-5% polling lead is very brave, very stupid, or both.

Theuniondivvie

StuartDickson said:

Yes ahead in new poll on support for Scottish independence

Yes 51%
No 49%

Support FM timetable - 43%
Oppose - 44%
Neither or DK - 13%

Panelbase/Sunday Times; 1,010

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/c4551f8a-fa1c-11ec-b060-3c9acf7f2ee6?shareToken=2c5e3da0223c880133d77f4a003724fb

The Yoons are at the ‘everyone knows Panelbase are biased in favour of the Nats’ stage of grief. The poor souls have been on tenterhooks waiting for a big dip in the polls for Indy and the SNP since Nicola’s disastrous indyref announcement.

StuartDickson

Panelbase: Sunday Times - voting intention Westminster

SNP 47% (+5)
Lab 23% (-1)
Con 19% (-2)
LD 8% (+1)
oth 3% (-2)

(+/- Panelbase/Sunday Times 26-29 April)

Baxtered (new boundaries):

SNP 53 seats (+5)
LD 2 seats (nc)
Lab 1 seat (nc)
Con 1 seat (-5)

Malmesbury

OldKingCole said:

It's perhaps not surprising that none of the males here are admitting to ever behaving in inappropriately!

A theory about that.

Some comments from @Cyclefree got me thinking - I and the men I would consider friends regard even the lowest level harassment stuff as unacceptable. We would instantly ditch any bottom pinchers as abhorrent - I can recall an occasion many years ago, where a friend brought someone along on a night out who harassed a waitress. That killed the evening and he (the arsehole) was not seen again.

The problem is that this creates a filter on your view of the world. By excluding such people, some may think they don’t exist. I think that such people are somewhat like the various drug sub cultures - they seek out and gravitate towards people who accept them. And (if successful in life) are adept at hiding their behaviour from those who don’t go along with it.

DavidL

I feel the same way about this as the Downing Street drinks do or do's. I do not like the Police having such a say in our politics on the back of frankly incoherent regulations that are open to interpretation in a variety of ways and almost certainly time barred when there were police (in terms of security) present on both occasions.

They are not the arbiters of the law, they have their own biases. It is not uncommon for fixed penalties to be challenged and there to be no subsequent conviction. Durham police should bug out and the Met, now in special measures itself, should never have got involved. This has been a tedious and irrelevant distraction to the numerous things of substance our government is failing to address and on which we should focus.

Carnyx

Theuniondivvie said:

StuartDickson said:

Yes ahead in new poll on support for Scottish independence

Yes 51%
No 49%

Support FM timetable - 43%
Oppose - 44%
Neither or DK - 13%

Panelbase/Sunday Times; 1,010

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/c4551f8a-fa1c-11ec-b060-3c9acf7f2ee6?shareToken=2c5e3da0223c880133d77f4a003724fb

The Yoons are at the ‘everyone knows Panelbase are biased in favour of the Nats’ stage of grief. The poor souls have been on tenterhooks waiting for a big dip in the polls for Indy and the SNP since Nicola’s disastrous indyref announcement.

How reliable do you think Panelbase are compared to the others?

(but of course the comparison in the voting intention is with a Panelbase poll anyway)

DougSeal

Theuniondivvie said:

StuartDickson said:

Yes ahead in new poll on support for Scottish independence

Yes 51%
No 49%

Support FM timetable - 43%
Oppose - 44%
Neither or DK - 13%

Panelbase/Sunday Times; 1,010

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/c4551f8a-fa1c-11ec-b060-3c9acf7f2ee6?shareToken=2c5e3da0223c880133d77f4a003724fb

The Yoons are at the ‘everyone knows Panelbase are biased in favour of the Nats’ stage of grief. The poor souls have been on tenterhooks waiting for a big dip in the polls for Indy and the SNP since Nicola’s disastrous indyref announcement.

Any poor souls specifically?

bigjohnowls

Both me and Mrs BJ tested positive.

Feeling hot and heavy cold symptoms. Hope it doesn't progress to far worse.

rottenborough

Scott_xP said:

Tough gig for work and pensions secretary Therese Coffey on TV this morning.

Does she hold the increasingly-untenable No10 line that the PM knew nothing about the allegations against Chris Pincher before making him chief whip?

Or does she distance herself from her boss? https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1543494526014218241/photo/1

This torture they all have to endure every few weeks when it their turn at the studios to defend the latest sleazy, lying fuck up can end whenever they want. Only takes two or three of them to resign and the leadership election is back on.

Dura_Ace

OldKingCole said:

It's perhaps not surprising that none of the males here are admitting to ever behaving in inappropriately!

I have. On occasions beyond numbering when I was younger.

Carnyx

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jul/02/watchdog-investigates-firm-behind-prince-charless-eco-village-in-scotland

Hmm, unexpected link between ecohouses in Dumfriesshire and tree houses in Aylesbury ...

StuartDickson

Until we have a vision of a less Anglocentric, more conciliatory Britain, nationalists will keep trying for independence

Theuniondivvie said:

StuartDickson said:

Yes ahead in new poll on support for Scottish independence

Yes 51%
No 49%

Support FM timetable - 43%
Oppose - 44%
Neither or DK - 13%

Panelbase/Sunday Times; 1,010

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/c4551f8a-fa1c-11ec-b060-3c9acf7f2ee6?shareToken=2c5e3da0223c880133d77f4a003724fb

The Yoons are at the ‘everyone knows Panelbase are biased in favour of the Nats’ stage of grief. The poor souls have been on tenterhooks waiting for a big dip in the polls for Indy and the SNP since Nicola’s disastrous indyref announcement.

I don’t understand why Unionists have given up arguing the merits of the Union. They are now 99% focused on fundamentally anti-Scottish and anti-democracy lines of argument. Such tactics are only going to achieve a strategic result that they will find profoundly unpleasant.

Engage dear chaps. Engage.

Scott_xP

From now on, a car crash ministerial TV interview should be known as "having a Coffey".
https://twitter.com/RidgeOnSunday/status/1543503625636483072

bondegezou

bigjohnowls said:

Both me and Mrs BJ tested positive.

Feeling hot and heavy cold symptoms. Hope it doesn't progress to far worse.

Get well soon. I’m on day 9 and finally feeling somewhat better.

DavidL

bigjohnowls said:

Both me and Mrs BJ tested positive.

Feeling hot and heavy cold symptoms. Hope it doesn't progress to far worse.

When my wife and I had it a month ago we each had a couple of days of feeling genuinely lousy then about a week of lassitude and easy exhaustion. I think its really important in the early stages to take it very easy, don't try and push through it, rest as much as you can and drink plenty water. Hope its no worse for you.

noneoftheabove

Malmesbury said:

OldKingCole said:

It's perhaps not surprising that none of the males here are admitting to ever behaving in inappropriately!

A theory about that.

Some comments from @Cyclefree got me thinking - I and the men I would consider friends regard even the lowest level harassment stuff as unacceptable. We would instantly ditch any bottom pinchers as abhorrent - I can recall an occasion many years ago, where a friend brought someone along on a night out who harassed a waitress. That killed the evening and he (the arsehole) was not seen again.

The problem is that this creates a filter on your view of the world. By excluding such people, some may think they don’t exist. I think that such people are somewhat like the various drug sub cultures - they seek out and gravitate towards people who accept them. And (if successful in life) are adept at hiding their behaviour from those who don’t go along with it.

Probably why he was known as Pincher by name, pincher by nature then........

Carnyx

DougSeal said:

StuartDickson said:

John Curtice: Time to forget about process and debate the big issue itself

If either side is to move the dial, they need to begin to argue the substantive case for or against the Union rather than simply pursuing arguments about process. For while the latter might comfort existing supporters, they are unlikely to change voters’ minds.

And changing minds is what both Nicola Sturgeon and Boris Johnson badly need to do.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/john-curtice-time-to-forget-about-process-and-debate-the-big-issue-itself-
b0qs7rvxj

I’m going to break my self imposed ban on commenting on Scotland’s constitutional status to say that anyone who’s placing the future of their raison de etre (be they Unionist or Nationalist, Remain or Leave, pro or anti AV, whatever) on a 1%-5% polling lead is very brave, very stupid, or both.

Yet a dilemma (not the only one) is that if the game looks like changing to Yes the Unionists will just double down on the procedural minutiae and refuse to discuss the benefits of union.

Scott_xP

Theuniondivvie said:

The Yoons are at the ‘everyone knows Panelbase are biased in favour of the Nats’ stage of grief.

Ah, I love the smell of Zoomer hubris in the morning...

"We can't lose, this time. As long as nobody notices we couldnae run a bath..."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/07/03/how-nicola-sturgeon-turned-scotland-failed-state/

Theuniondivvie

Carnyx said:

Theuniondivvie said:

StuartDickson said:

Yes ahead in new poll on support for Scottish independence

Yes 51%
No 49%

Support FM timetable - 43%
Oppose - 44%
Neither or DK - 13%

Panelbase/Sunday Times; 1,010

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/c4551f8a-fa1c-11ec-b060-3c9acf7f2ee6?shareToken=2c5e3da0223c880133d77f4a003724fb

The Yoons are at the ‘everyone knows Panelbase are biased in favour of the Nats’ stage of grief. The poor souls have been on tenterhooks waiting for a big dip in the polls for Indy and the SNP since Nicola’s disastrous indyref announcement.

How reliable do you think Panelbase are compared to the others?

Looking at Wiki they seem pretty much in the herd as far as numbers go. I think certain Unionists suffered from lasting trauma due to the pre 2014 Indy ref Panelbase showing Yes ahead. The cries of ‘Foul!’at the time were deafening.

Benpointer

bigjohnowls said:

Both me and Mrs BJ tested positive.

Feeling hot and heavy cold symptoms. Hope it doesn't progress to far worse.

Get well soon BJO - and Mrs BJO!

Mrs P and I both had it two weeks ago. We both felt pretty rough for a few days - like the flu - but we soon began to feel better.

We have managed to test negative in time for our cruise which starts today but I think Cunard have reintroduced masks in indoor public areas* and they have only booked to half capacity AIUI.

(*Except when drinking or eating obvs, which, given it's a cruise seems a bit irrelevant tbh!)

NickPalmer

Casino_Royale said:

FPT - I've had my bottom pinched in nightclubs by women and, more commonly I'm afraid, by men too. I won't go into creepy Tory MPs but I've had a couple of those too when I was a teenager in Conservative Future and they were lecherous men too.

It's always inappropriate. Firstly, it's a total shock and surprise (like a total stranger slapping you, WTF?) and it often hurts depending on how much flesh they squeeze. Moreover, even if I was interested the 'pincher' invariably disappears into the crowd almost instantly, so how do you follow up? And even if you did what would you say? "Nice pinch! Fancy a drink?"

Weird and stupid. Intrusive. Rude. Not a compliment.

If you're interested let's exchange glances a few times and then come and talk to me.

Yes, but I suppose it's not primarily intended as an approach. I'm ashamed to say I once slapped a colleague's bottom in the corridor (40 years ago, when office culture was less regulated), and it was more a prank than a come-on - she seemed amused, but with modern sensibilities I suppose she may just pretended to be. Supposedly jokey things like that are perhaps harder to deal with than an inappropriate sexual approach, which can usually be fended off with a sharp response (unless there's a power imbalance, which is why a lecturer or boss or, ahem, an assistant chief whip needs to be particularly careful).

IanB2

Kettle: Nationalism thrives in the absence, exacerbated by Brexit, of a shared and capacious sense of what Britain is. The approaching end of a long monarchical reign adds something to this fragility. In many ways, the problem is not so much the existence of so many unresolved tensions. It is the elusiveness of any forward-looking consensus for addressing them over the long term. If it is ever to move beyond all this, Britain needs a movement of more open and conciliatory minds that can steer it between the rocks of Anglocentric unionism and the building of fresh borders across these islands.

This is a problem that Johnson is totally ill equipped to address, even if he wanted to. The truth, therefore, is that this task, if it is to be tackled, must fall to a new leader. If that leader is Keir Starmer, he will face an enormous economic, social and international agenda and may do so as head of a minority government. It is a daunting prospect. But the greatest challenge that history has reserved for Starmer will be to find a way of recreating the British state. Starmer’s plan to rule out an alliance with the SNP and to oppose a second referendum imply that he gets it.

rottenborough

Scott_xP said:

From now on, a car crash ministerial TV interview should be known as "having a Coffey".
https://twitter.com/RidgeOnSunday/status/1543503625636483072

I'm not aware as to whether I am aware of the awareness of the prime minister as to his own awareness with respect to this issue.

Theuniondivvie

StuartDickson said:

Panelbase: Sunday Times - voting intention Westminster

SNP 47% (+5)
Lab 23% (-1)
Con 19% (-2)
LD 8% (+1)
oth 3% (-2)

(+/- Panelbase/Sunday Times 26-29 April)

Baxtered (new boundaries):

SNP 53 seats (+5)
LD 2 seats (nc)
Lab 1 seat (nc)
Con 1 seat (-5)

Voters not got the Anas is doing a great job memo.

DougSeal

StuartDickson said:

Until we have a vision of a less Anglocentric, more conciliatory Britain, nationalists will keep trying for independence

Theuniondivvie said:

StuartDickson said:

Yes ahead in new poll on support for Scottish independence

Yes 51%
No 49%

Support FM timetable - 43%
Oppose - 44%
Neither or DK - 13%

Panelbase/Sunday Times; 1,010

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/c4551f8a-fa1c-11ec-b060-3c9acf7f2ee6?shareToken=2c5e3da0223c880133d77f4a003724fb

The Yoons are at the ‘everyone knows Panelbase are biased in favour of the Nats’ stage of grief. The poor souls have been on tenterhooks waiting for a big dip in the polls for Indy and the SNP since Nicola’s disastrous indyref announcement.

I don’t understand why Unionists have given up arguing the merits of the Union. They are now 99% focused on fundamentally anti-Scottish and anti-democracy lines of argument. Such tactics are only going to achieve a strategic result that they will find profoundly unpleasant.

Engage dear chaps. Engage.

Why do you care? Everyone knows that Scottish Independence is an inevitability. Your presence on here is to add fuel to your oppression fantasies. You’re mistaking a lot of us for unionists when far fewer of us are than you think.

TOPPING

DavidL said:

I feel the same way about this as the Downing Street drinks do or do's. I do not like the Police having such a say in our politics on the back of frankly incoherent regulations that are open to interpretation in a variety of ways and almost certainly time barred when there were police (in terms of security) present on both occasions.

They are not the arbiters of the law, they have their own biases. It is not uncommon for fixed penalties to be challenged and there to be no subsequent conviction. Durham police should bug out and the Met, now in special measures itself, should never have got involved. This has been a tedious and irrelevant distraction to the numerous things of substance our government is failing to address and on which we should focus.

'cept SKS was an enthusiastic promoter of said regulations.

A plague on both their houses.

Albeit BoJo managed to find the vaccine when he had it.

rottenborough

bigjohnowls said:

Both me and Mrs BJ tested positive.

Feeling hot and heavy cold symptoms. Hope it doesn't progress to far worse.

Sorry to hear this. Fingers crossed it is a mild bout.

I had a close near miss a month or so ago and now seems that we are in another bloomin' wave. Disappointing.

Foxy

StuartDickson said:

Until we have a vision of a less Anglocentric, more conciliatory Britain, nationalists will keep trying for independence

Theuniondivvie said:

StuartDickson said:

Yes ahead in new poll on support for Scottish independence

Yes 51%
No 49%

Support FM timetable - 43%
Oppose - 44%
Neither or DK - 13%

Panelbase/Sunday Times; 1,010

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/c4551f8a-fa1c-11ec-b060-3c9acf7f2ee6?shareToken=2c5e3da0223c880133d77f4a003724fb

The Yoons are at the ‘everyone knows Panelbase are biased in favour of the Nats’ stage of grief. The poor souls have been on tenterhooks waiting for a big dip in the polls for Indy and the SNP since Nicola’s disastrous indyref announcement.

I don’t understand why Unionists have given up arguing the merits of the Union. They are now 99% focused on fundamentally anti-Scottish and anti-democracy lines of argument. Such tactics are only going to achieve a strategic result that they will find profoundly unpleasant.

Engage dear chaps. Engage.

Yes, making the same error as the Remain campaign, talking down the country, concentrating on economics, and failing to make an emotional case and vision for the future together.

Carnyx

Theuniondivvie said:

StuartDickson said:

Panelbase: Sunday Times - voting intention Westminster

SNP 47% (+5)
Lab 23% (-1)
Con 19% (-2)
LD 8% (+1)
oth 3% (-2)

(+/- Panelbase/Sunday Times 26-29 April)

Baxtered (new boundaries):

SNP 53 seats (+5)
LD 2 seats (nc)
Lab 1 seat (nc)
Con 1 seat (-5)

Voters not got the Anas is doing a great job memo.

Or tbf to Mr S, maybe they got the Mr Ross loves Mr J on/off one. Difficult to judge. I wonder where those Con to Lab shifts have been taking place?

StuartDickson

bigjohnowls said:

Both me and Mrs BJ tested positive.

Feeling hot and heavy cold symptoms. Hope it doesn't progress to far worse.

Very sorry to hear this. I hope your symptoms remain mild.

I am slightly worried as I was at a “superspreader”-type event last night: a wedding! Folk from ages 3 to 93, from all over Scotland and also France, Wales, Castile, Ireland, Sweden and England. Several guests didn’t come as tested positive, but as one peruses the huge Dashing White Sergeant it does cross the mind: what percentage of the twirling, gleeful dancers is exhaling wee bugs?

Still, glad I went. At my age these kind of invitations don’t pop up every day.

rcs1000

StuartDickson said:

Panelbase: Sunday Times - voting intention Westminster

SNP 47% (+5)
Lab 23% (-1)
Con 19% (-2)
LD 8% (+1)
oth 3% (-2)

(+/- Panelbase/Sunday Times 26-29 April)

Baxtered (new boundaries):

SNP 53 seats (+5)
LD 2 seats (nc)
Lab 1 seat (nc)
Con 1 seat (-5)

Oh come on @StuartDickson, can't you see that the real headline should be:

"LibDem surge in Scotland sees them predicted to win as many seats as Conservatives and Labour combined"

IanB2

And the Sunday Rawnsley:

David Cameron responded to the vote against independence in 2014 by congratulating himself for being the prime minister who settled the matter once and for all. Very smug, very Cameron and very wrong.

The SNP is going to keep pushing until either it is removed from power, which doesn’t look likely in the foreseeable future, or it gets another crack at independence.

The Conservative party is now largely in the hands of people who claim to treasure the UK while trashing its unity. Once asked what he thought of independence for Scotland, Mr Johnson responded by humming the tune of There’ll Always Be an England. Since he and his fellow Brexiters took control, the Conservatives have become less a unionist party and more an English nationalist party.

On Mr Johnson’s to-do list, preserving the union comes a very long way behind saving his own skin. In so much as he thinks about Scotland at all, it is as a problem for the next prime minister. “Putting our fingers in our ears and saying nah-nah-di-nah-nah is not a sustainable position,” says one senior Tory who cares about the union.

Many at Westminster appear to take the view that something will turn up to make the Scottish question go away. It seems much more likely that it will continue to fester, trapping everyone in circular and rancorous arguments, until it is resolved one way or the other. Crudely relying on delaying tactics could rebound on the unionist cause.

Ms Sturgeon may very well fail to get a 2023 vote, but I have become convinced that Scotland’s future will not be settled definitively without a second referendum at some point. It takes two. [...as in Quebec]

TOPPING

bigjohnowls said:

Both me and Mrs BJ tested positive.

Feeling hot and heavy cold symptoms. Hope it doesn't progress to far worse.

Sorry to hear that. Very unlikely, although of course not impossible, that it will progress beyond bad cold stage.

OnlyLivingBoy

StuartDickson said:

Until we have a vision of a less Anglocentric, more conciliatory Britain, nationalists will keep trying for independence

Theuniondivvie said:

StuartDickson said:

Yes ahead in new poll on support for Scottish independence

Yes 51%
No 49%

Support FM timetable - 43%
Oppose - 44%
Neither or DK - 13%

Panelbase/Sunday Times; 1,010

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/c4551f8a-fa1c-11ec-b060-3c9acf7f2ee6?shareToken=2c5e3da0223c880133d77f4a003724fb

The Yoons are at the ‘everyone knows Panelbase are biased in favour of the Nats’ stage of grief. The poor souls have been on tenterhooks waiting for a big dip in the polls for Indy and the SNP since Nicola’s disastrous indyref announcement.

I don’t understand why Unionists have given up arguing the merits of the Union. They are now 99% focused on fundamentally anti-Scottish and anti-democracy lines of argument. Such tactics are only going to achieve a strategic result that they will find profoundly unpleasant.

Engage dear chaps. Engage.

There are powerful arguments on both sides of the debate - I can see merits to both and have alternated from being a moderate unionist to moderate nationalist over the years. I would hope that a second referendum would be an opportunity to air all the issues properly and decide the issue once and for all.
It feels like having the issue unresolved is both keeping the SNP in power beyond their sell by date and distracting them from running the country properly (Brexit occupies the same role south of the border or course). The 2014 referendum campaign didn't do a great job of getting the substantive issues worked through, although compared to the EU referendum it was like the Lincoln-Douglas debates.

StuartDickson

Carnyx said:

Theuniondivvie said:

StuartDickson said:

Panelbase: Sunday Times - voting intention Westminster

SNP 47% (+5)
Lab 23% (-1)
Con 19% (-2)
LD 8% (+1)
oth 3% (-2)

(+/- Panelbase/Sunday Times 26-29 April)

Baxtered (new boundaries):

SNP 53 seats (+5)
LD 2 seats (nc)
Lab 1 seat (nc)
Con 1 seat (-5)

Voters not got the Anas is doing a great job memo.

Or tbf to Mr S, maybe they got the Mr Ross loves Mr J on/off one. Difficult to judge. I wonder where those Con to Lab shifts have been taking place?

They haven’t. It’s “churn”. There are some deep, complex shifts in voter behaviour underway.

What looks like a (modest) SCon to SLab swing is actually just indicative of bigger inter-party rearranging. The tectonic plates are simply groaning. An earthquake is inevitable. The only question is: when?

Carnyx

rcs1000 said:

StuartDickson said:

Panelbase: Sunday Times - voting intention Westminster

SNP 47% (+5)
Lab 23% (-1)
Con 19% (-2)
LD 8% (+1)
oth 3% (-2)

(+/- Panelbase/Sunday Times 26-29 April)

Baxtered (new boundaries):

SNP 53 seats (+5)
LD 2 seats (nc)
Lab 1 seat (nc)
Con 1 seat (-5)

Oh come on @StuartDickson, can't you see that the real headline should be:

"LibDem surge in Scotland sees them predicted to win as many seats as Conservatives and Labour combined"

Very nice example of the geographical distribution of voting affecting the final result in terms of seats, allowing for the errors in herent in such estimates. But Con and Lab can't complain as supporters of FPTP: still, ironic that the two parties which support reform of the Westminster voting system win out.

I suspect the LD seats are Orkney and NE Fife (St Andrews in particular). Do we know?

Scott_xP

So this is really the line. When Boris was about to appoint Pincher Chief Whip he was referred to vetting, which took six hours. But during that six-hour process, no-one uncovered any allegations, and no-one referred any to Boris. Then he decided not to appoint him anyway.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1543507131206438913
https://twitter.com/RidgeOnSunday/status/1543503625636483072

solarflare

IanB2 said:

Kettle: Nationalism thrives in the absence, exacerbated by Brexit, of a shared and capacious sense of what Britain is. The approaching end of a long monarchical reign adds something to this fragility. In many ways, the problem is not so much the existence of so many unresolved tensions. It is the elusiveness of any forward-looking consensus for addressing them over the long term. If it is ever to move beyond all this, Britain needs a movement of more open and conciliatory minds that can steer it between the rocks of Anglocentric unionism and the building of fresh borders across these islands.

This is a problem that Johnson is totally ill equipped to address, even if he wanted to. The truth, therefore, is that this task, if it is to be tackled, must fall to a new leader. If that leader is Keir Starmer, he will face an enormous economic, social and international agenda and may do so as head of a minority government. It is a daunting prospect. But the greatest challenge that history has reserved for Starmer will be to find a way of recreating the British state. Starmer’s plan to rule out an alliance with the SNP and to oppose a second referendum imply that he gets it.

"Starmer will fix it all by basically doing exactly the same thing as Boris"

kjh

rcs1000 said:

StuartDickson said:

Panelbase: Sunday Times - voting intention Westminster

SNP 47% (+5)
Lab 23% (-1)
Con 19% (-2)
LD 8% (+1)
oth 3% (-2)

(+/- Panelbase/Sunday Times 26-29 April)

Baxtered (new boundaries):

SNP 53 seats (+5)
LD 2 seats (nc)
Lab 1 seat (nc)
Con 1 seat (-5)

Oh come on @StuartDickson, can't you see that the real headline should be:

"LibDem surge in Scotland sees them predicted to win as many seats as Conservatives and Labour combined"

And what is wrong with that. It is calling out for a bar chart with the SNP column missing.

boulay

Casino_Royale said:

FPT - I've had my bottom pinched in nightclubs by women and, more commonly I'm afraid, by men too. I won't go into creepy Tory MPs but I've had a couple of those too when I was a teenager in Conservative Future and they were lecherous men too.

It's always inappropriate. Firstly, it's a total shock and surprise (like a total stranger slapping you, WTF?) and it often hurts depending on how much flesh they squeeze. Moreover, even if I was interested the 'pincher' invariably disappears into the crowd almost instantly, so how do you follow up? And even if you did what would you say? "Nice pinch! Fancy a drink?"

Weird and stupid. Intrusive. Rude. Not a compliment.

If you're interested let's exchange glances a few times and then come and talk to me.

The bottom pinching in clubs and bars (usually hen parties weirdly) is annoying but I’ve usually just seen it as silly japes when done to me as it isn’t going to make me suddenly attracted to them as it’s a bit naff.

What I have experienced twice is serious groping by women - once being grabbed in the crotch repeatedly in a bar by a girl I know in front of people to the point I had to restrain both her wrists until she agreed to stop doing it - was embarrassing and annoying but clearly I wasn’t sexually threatened as I’m six foot two and seventeen stone and she’s about five-three and would get carried off by a light breeze.

The second situation was much worse where I was at dinner in a restaurant and a drunken nurse who was friends with others there was incessantly groping my crotch under the table however many times I told her to stop. It was grim as she really expected it to lead somewhere and I wasn’t remotely interested in her.

I got her friends to ask her to leave and made it clear that if a guy had behaved anything like that to a woman someone would have laid him out or the police would have been involved.

If I had involved the police then her career would be over and it would wreck her life so didn’t bother but it is strange how men are possibly conditioned to brush off such behaviour that they would go crazy about if someone disk it to their wife, sister, mother, daughter etc and so cases like Pincher get hidden for longer and thus not stopped at first offence.

Mexicanpete

solarflare said:

IanB2 said:

Kettle: Nationalism thrives in the absence, exacerbated by Brexit, of a shared and capacious sense of what Britain is. The approaching end of a long monarchical reign adds something to this fragility. In many ways, the problem is not so much the existence of so many unresolved tensions. It is the elusiveness of any forward-looking consensus for addressing them over the long term. If it is ever to move beyond all this, Britain needs a movement of more open and conciliatory minds that can steer it between the rocks of Anglocentric unionism and the building of fresh borders across these islands.

This is a problem that Johnson is totally ill equipped to address, even if he wanted to. The truth, therefore, is that this task, if it is to be tackled, must fall to a new leader. If that leader is Keir Starmer, he will face an enormous economic, social and international agenda and may do so as head of a minority government. It is a daunting prospect. But the greatest challenge that history has reserved for Starmer will be to find a way of recreating the British state. Starmer’s plan to rule out an alliance with the SNP and to oppose a second referendum imply that he gets it.

"Starmer will fix it all by basically doing exactly the same thing as Boris"

Have you not read the thread header? Starmer is going down!

rcs1000

Carnyx said:

rcs1000 said:

StuartDickson said:

Panelbase: Sunday Times - voting intention Westminster

SNP 47% (+5)
Lab 23% (-1)
Con 19% (-2)
LD 8% (+1)
oth 3% (-2)

(+/-It Panelbase/Sunday Times 26-29 April)

Baxtered (new boundaries):

SNP 53 seats (+5)
LD 2 seats (nc)
Lab 1 seat (nc)
Con 1 seat (-5)

Oh come on @StuartDickson, can't you see that the real headline should be:

"LibDem surge in Scotland sees them predicted to win as many seats as Conservatives and Labour combined"

Very nice example of the geographical distribution of voting affecting the final result in terms of seats, allowing for the errors in herent in such estimates. But Con and Lab can't complain as supporters of FPTP: still, ironic that the two parties which support reform of the Westminster voting system win out.

I suspect the LD seats are Orkney and NE Fife (St Andrews in particular). Do we know?

I think it's O&S and Edinburgh West. NE Fife gains a couple of rural wards which are not particularly encouraging for the LDs. That said... if they can encourage tactical voting from the Conservatives in those seats, then it is far from impossible for them to cling on.

HYUFD

Johnson wouldn't resign even if Starmer had to, he would just say he had seen off another Labour leader.

Though I still doubt Starmer will be fined it was his choice to take the risky choice of saying he would resign if fined

StuartDickson

Carnyx said:

rcs1000 said:

StuartDickson said:

Panelbase: Sunday Times - voting intention Westminster

SNP 47% (+5)
Lab 23% (-1)
Con 19% (-2)
LD 8% (+1)
oth 3% (-2)

(+/- Panelbase/Sunday Times 26-29 April)

Baxtered (new boundaries):

SNP 53 seats (+5)
LD 2 seats (nc)
Lab 1 seat (nc)
Con 1 seat (-5)

Oh come on @StuartDickson, can't you see that the real headline should be:

"LibDem surge in Scotland sees them predicted to win as many seats as Conservatives and Labour combined"

Very nice example of the geographical distribution of voting affecting the final result in terms of seats, allowing for the errors in herent in such estimates. But Con and Lab can't complain as supporters of FPTP: still, ironic that the two parties which support reform of the Westminster voting system win out.

I suspect the LD seats are Orkney and NE Fife (St Andrews in particular). Do we know?

Nope. Orkney & Shetland and Edinburgh West are the 2 SLD holds (according to Baxter).

NE Fife’s Baxter is:

SNP 43%
SLD 37%
SLab 10%
SCon 8%

The new boundaries are viciously cruel to the Unionists. Another Tory wheeze that they didn’t think through very well.

MarqueeMark

Foxy said:

StuartDickson said:

Until we have a vision of a less Anglocentric, more conciliatory Britain, nationalists will keep trying for independence

Theuniondivvie said:

StuartDickson said:

Yes ahead in new poll on support for Scottish independence

Yes 51%
No 49%

Support FM timetable - 43%
Oppose - 44%
Neither or DK - 13%

Panelbase/Sunday Times; 1,010

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/c4551f8a-fa1c-11ec-b060-3c9acf7f2ee6?shareToken=2c5e3da0223c880133d77f4a003724fb

The Yoons are at the ‘everyone knows Panelbase are biased in favour of the Nats’ stage of grief. The poor souls have been on tenterhooks waiting for a big dip in the polls for Indy and the SNP since Nicola’s disastrous indyref announcement.

I don’t understand why Unionists have given up arguing the merits of the Union. They are now 99% focused on fundamentally anti-Scottish and anti-democracy lines of argument. Such tactics are only going to achieve a strategic result that they will find profoundly unpleasant.

Engage dear chaps. Engage.

Yes, making the same error as the Remain campaign, talking down the country, concentrating on economics, and failing to make an emotional case and vision for the future together.

The independence campaign will continue to fail as long as all it has is the emotional case and refuses to engage with the big picture: currency, jobs, pensions, head of state, hosting nuclear weapons, the cost of rejoining the EU....

Benpointer

HYUFD said:

Johnson wouldn't resign even if Starmer had to, he would just say he had seen off another Labour leader.

Though I still doubt Starmer will be fined it was his choice to take the risky honourable choice of saying he would resign if fined

Corrected that for you.

HYUFD

StuartDickson said:

Panelbase: Sunday Times - voting intention Westminster

SNP 47% (+5)
Lab 23% (-1)
Con 19% (-2)
LD 8% (+1)
oth 3% (-2)

(+/- Panelbase/Sunday Times 26-29 April)

Baxtered (new boundaries):

SNP 53 seats (+5)
LD 2 seats (nc)
Lab 1 seat (nc)
Con 1 seat (-5)

So SNP below 50% and Sturgeon's gamble of making the next general election in Scotland a proxy referendum would fail.

Unionist Conservatives, Labour and LDs combined on 50%, SNP only on 47%.

Benpointer

TOPPING said:

DavidL said:

I feel the same way about this as the Downing Street drinks do or do's. I do not like the Police having such a say in our politics on the back of frankly incoherent regulations that are open to interpretation in a variety of ways and almost certainly time barred when there were police (in terms of security) present on both occasions.

They are not the arbiters of the law, they have their own biases. It is not uncommon for fixed penalties to be challenged and there to be no subsequent conviction. Durham police should bug out and the Met, now in special measures itself, should never have got involved. This has been a tedious and irrelevant distraction to the numerous things of substance our government is failing to address and on which we should focus.

'cept SKS was an enthusiastic promoter of said regulations.

A plague on both their houses.

Albeit BoJo managed to find the vaccine when he had it.

"BoJo managed to find the vaccine" wtaf are you talking about?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Owls, hope you and your wife recover soon.

Scott_xP

MarqueeMark said:

The independence campaign will continue to fail as long as all it has is the emotional case and refuses to engage with the big picture: currency, jobs, pensions, head of state, hosting nuclear weapons, the cost of rejoining the EU....

Coming from a Brexiteer, you should know that argument is bollocks.

Emotion trumps reality.

You won...