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It looks like the Roe v Wade decision is helping the Democrats – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited July 3 in General
imageIt looks like the Roe v Wade decision is helping the Democrats – politicalbetting.com

The above polling table from Fivethirtyeight features the most recent generic voting intentions for the November midterm elections in the US and gives an initial indication of how the Supreme Court’s decision of Rowe v Wade is impacting on voters.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • CiceroCicero Posts: 1,398
    edited June 28
    Then there is this explosive Trump testimony... Could be that the US far right fever has just broken? The Republicans may need to put a LOT of distance between the party and 45. Oh, and first, apparently.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,442
    Would be nice to think the religious right has shot itself in the balls over this
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 103,479
    I predict he'll end up on GB News.

    Former England captain Michael Vaughan has said he is stepping back from his work at the BBC.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/61975267



    https://twitter.com/MichaelVaughan/status/1541875228246155267
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 103,479
    Cicero said:

    Then there is this explosive Trump testimony... Could be that the US far right fever has just broken?

    I hope so but the GOP these days is the Trump Party.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 103,479
    FPT

    I predict he'll end up on GB News.

    Former England captain Michael Vaughan has said he is stepping back from his work at the BBC.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/61975267

    I do love how people get found guilty by media. What’s his crime? To have had an allegation made against him by someone also known to use racist terms. Ridiculous.
    The allegation was corroborated by two or three other witnesses.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 20,598
    Cicero said:

    Then there is this explosive Trump testimony... Could be that the US far right fever has just broken? The Republicans may need to put a LOT of distance between the party and 45. Oh, and first, apparently.

    The civil war kicks off properly when they try and arrest Trump.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 34,832
    IshmaelZ said:

    Would be nice to think the religious right has shot itself in the balls over this

    Or even better, in each other’s balls.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 1,991
    The Trump cult will stick with him regardless but the mid terms regardless of the economic issues are no longer the walk in the park many expected for the GOP .

    Roe v Wade and now this explosive testimony are going to make life very uncomfortable in the more battle ground states .

    The Dems will force their GOP opponents to make their position clear on abortion and whether they support Trump .
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 29,030
    I see Turkey is now backing the accession of Sweden and Finland

    Should we award Putin a cheap Mercedes and some steak knifes as NATO salesman of the year?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 9,431
    edited June 28

    FPT

    I predict he'll end up on GB News.

    Former England captain Michael Vaughan has said he is stepping back from his work at the BBC.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/61975267

    I do love how people get found guilty by media. What’s his crime? To have had an allegation made against him by someone also known to use racist terms. Ridiculous.
    The allegation was corroborated by two or three other witnesses.
    Independently? Has he had a chance to defend himself? If he said it, what was the context?
    Don’t get me wrong, I have no love of Vaughn. Quite happy if he never commentates on TMS again, but I think due process ought to be respected.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 7,210

    Cicero said:

    Then there is this explosive Trump testimony... Could be that the US far right fever has just broken? The Republicans may need to put a LOT of distance between the party and 45. Oh, and first, apparently.

    The civil war kicks off properly when they try and arrest Trump.
    Any other country, you would be thinking, get the Special Forces in, bump off Trump and a few others, maybe think about letting them run themselves again in a decade or two. If everyone plays nicely.

    After all, it's a heavily-armed rogue-adjacent state.

    Much harder to do when it's the US of A.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 2,206

    I see Turkey is now backing the accession of Sweden and Finland

    Should we award Putin a cheap Mercedes and some steak knifes as NATO salesman of the year?

    And they seem to have haggled very effectively in the process. Erdogan doing what we thought until 2014 Putin was good at: being a smart demagogue.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,356
    edited June 28
    FPT
    Leon said:

    Still, another slow news week, huh

    I remember when PB was properly exciting. One day a council by election in Newent, three days later, ANOTHER council by election in Newent, one after the other. Then at the weekend we’d talk about rugby league

    Leon, you, I and @Mexicanpete are literally the only people on here* who ever talk about Newent.

    Given he and I both lived in or near it for decades, that's understandable.

    Your obsession with it because your grandmother spent her later years in Highfields is rather less so.

    Is it just because you know, in your heart of hearts, you made a bad bargain swapping the delights and beauties of Newent for London?

    *That may be an unnecessary qualification!

    (In any case, you're wrong. There are almost never council elections in Newent, let alone by-elections, because there is so seldom more than one candidate!)
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 15,373
    FPT:
    There seems little point trying not to upset Trump supporters when their man is a fraudulent traitor.

    Try him - and his accomplices - for treason, and quickly; he needs taking out of circulation.

    I see Ginni Thompson is wrapped up in this somehow too. With some effort, there is probably some crime Clarence can be found guilty of too so he be removed from his duties, and a vacancy opened up on the Supreme Court.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 20,598

    Cicero said:

    Then there is this explosive Trump testimony... Could be that the US far right fever has just broken? The Republicans may need to put a LOT of distance between the party and 45. Oh, and first, apparently.

    The civil war kicks off properly when they try and arrest Trump.
    Any other country, you would be thinking, get the Special Forces in, bump off Trump and a few others, maybe think about letting them run themselves again in a decade or two. If everyone plays nicely.

    After all, it's a heavily-armed rogue-adjacent state.

    Much harder to do when it's the US of A.
    There is no longer any unity in the states. The USA is dead.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 9,616
    On Topic - Still too early to tell.

    For one thing, still lacking straight before vs after comparison by same pollster with similar samples.

    BUT color me guardedly optimistic.

    Think real deal will likely be (my guess in descending order of importance):
    > impact on voting intentions of suburban swing voters, esp. pro-choice moderate-conservative women?
    > impact on voter turnout of younger, pro-choice voters, esp. younger women?
    > impact on voter turnout of anti-abortion, mainly religious conservatives who are infrequent voters?
    > impact on voting intentions of religious conservatives who have been having doubts (wonder why) about 45 & etc., but who both favor SCOTUS overturning RvW AND want to hold the line against potential pro-choice mid-term backlash
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 5,661
    ComRes confirm a Sindy and Scottish VI poll later this week folliwing todays developments and discussion
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 10,315

    areas with the biggest decrease in population in England and Wales

    25 local authorities in England and Wales have seen significant drops in their communities.

    Kensington and Chelsea, the smallest borough in London, had the biggest population fall – down 9.6% – and it was followed by Westminster, down 6.9%

    Ceredigion, a county in the west of Wales, took the next-biggest hit with 5.8%, before Copeland in Cumbria, 5%, and the Isles of Scilly, 4.7%.

    Camden is the only other London borough which saw a population decrease, of 4.6%, whilst Wales’ second-largest city Swansea went down by 0.2%.

    In fact, almost a third of local authorities in Wales – seven out of 22 – saw a drop in population.

    https://metro.co.uk/2022/06/28/map-shows-areas-with-biggest-population-decrease-in-england-and-wales-16905856

    Wondering if declines in K&C, Westminster & Scilly stem from absentee property speculation? In contrast to drops in more remote rural areas with declining jobs base & aging population?
    Yes, that was the explanation that first sprung to mind.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 9,616

    FPT:
    There seems little point trying not to upset Trump supporters when their man is a fraudulent traitor.

    Try him - and his accomplices - for treason, and quickly; he needs taking out of circulation.

    I see Ginni Thompson is wrapped up in this somehow too. With some effort, there is probably some crime Clarence can be found guilty of too so he be removed from his duties, and a vacancy opened up on the Supreme Court.

    Nobody gets tried for treason in USA. Not even Jefferson Davis.

    Since failed treason trials versus Aaron Burr (who'd been Thomas Jefferson's 1st VP) simply too much of a hurdle AND too hot to handle.

    Other citations from federal statues much different matter.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 103,479
    The Supreme Court reinstated a congressional voting map in Louisiana that a federal judge had said diluted the power of Black voters.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/28/us/supreme-court-louisiana-voting-map.html
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,442

    I see Turkey is now backing the accession of Sweden and Finland

    Should we award Putin a cheap Mercedes and some steak knifes as NATO salesman of the year?

    Yes LOL but the price is Sweden sending Kurds back to Turkey. Which is not a lot different from sending Jews back to Hitler's Germany.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,708
    Put up a compelling candidate and beat trump again in an election. Any attempt to incarcerate him in the run up to that election is dangerous and arguably plays into his hands I reckon.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 9,641
    edited June 28

    I see Turkey is now backing the accession of Sweden and Finland

    Should we award Putin a cheap Mercedes and some steak knifes as NATO salesman of the year?

    I think a watch would be more appropriate, symbolic of his time ticking away.
  • TimS said:

    Could Roe vs Wade have the effect of making the Republicans appear to be the incumbents?

    Mid terms seem to be a quasi-metronomic reaction against whoever is in the White House at the time, but people will be seeing the conservatives dominated Supreme Court exercising its power and suddenly the GOP don’t seem so much like the opposition. There is incumbency to vote against on both sides.

    Banning abortion is hitting the fault lines in the GOP. The Christian fundamentalists are for it. The free-market types, the angry blue collar Trump folks, and your average suburban centrist aren't/ They don't like abortion but they like having it around as an option.

    They might not - or probably won't go - for the whole Roe v. Wade scope of it. But the first trimester, Plan B or 10-11 week at home option is a different matter. They're not all that concerned if a tiny collection of cells has a soul or whatever.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 636
    So, suppose the SNP do plan on using the 2024 GE as a plebiscite for indy, if Boris and the Supreme Court say no...
    We get the following result:
    Labour - 283
    Con - 275
    SNP - 48
    Lib Dems - 20
    What does Starmer do? What does Sturgeon do?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 10,315

    ComRes confirm a Sindy and Scottish VI poll later this week folliwing todays developments and discussion

    Anyone brave enough for predictions?

    Last referendum poll was 50:50 (Ipsos Scottish Political Monitor)

    https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2022-05/ipsos-scottish-political-monitor-may-2022-charts.pdf

    Last Westminster poll was:

    Ipsos/STV News
    23-29 May 2022
    1,000
    (This is the only Scottish survey by Ipsos since the 2019 GE, so comparison is with that GE)

    SNP 44% (-1)
    Lab 23% (+4%)
    Con 19% (-6%)
    LD 10% (nc)
    Grn 3% (+2)
    oth 2% (+1)

    Last Holyrood poll:

    YouGov / The Times
    Sample Size: 1,115
    Fieldwork: 18-23 May 2022
    (+/- change from 18-22 November 2021)

    Holyrood voting intention - FPTP constituency vote

    SNP 47% (-1)
    Lab 23% (+4)
    Con 18% (-3)
    LD 7% (nc)
    Grn 2% (nc)
    oth 3% (nc)

    Holyrood voting intention - List vote

    SNP 39% (+1)
    Lab 21% (+2)
    Con 18% (-1)
    Grn 10% (-1)
    LD 8% (+1)
    Alba 2% (+1)
    Ref 1% (-1)
    All for Unity 0 (-1)
    UKIP 0 (-1)
    oth 1% (nc)



  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 22,470
    moonshine said:

    Put up a compelling candidate and beat trump again in an election. Any attempt to incarcerate him in the run up to that election is dangerous and arguably plays into his hands I reckon.

    So if he's broken the law we should... just overlook that?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 14,391
    edited June 28
    “There is no longer any unity in the states. The USA is dead.”

    Utter hyperbolic hysterical garbage: absolutely premium, top-end PB attention-seeking crap at its very worst.

  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 9,431

    moonshine said:

    Put up a compelling candidate and beat trump again in an election. Any attempt to incarcerate him in the run up to that election is dangerous and arguably plays into his hands I reckon.

    So if he's broken the law we should... just overlook that?
    Prove the case in a court of law.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 34,507

    areas with the biggest decrease in population in England and Wales

    25 local authorities in England and Wales have seen significant drops in their communities.

    Kensington and Chelsea, the smallest borough in London, had the biggest population fall – down 9.6% – and it was followed by Westminster, down 6.9%

    Ceredigion, a county in the west of Wales, took the next-biggest hit with 5.8%, before Copeland in Cumbria, 5%, and the Isles of Scilly, 4.7%.

    Camden is the only other London borough which saw a population decrease, of 4.6%, whilst Wales’ second-largest city Swansea went down by 0.2%.

    In fact, almost a third of local authorities in Wales – seven out of 22 – saw a drop in population.

    https://metro.co.uk/2022/06/28/map-shows-areas-with-biggest-population-decrease-in-england-and-wales-16905856

    Wondering if declines in K&C, Westminster & Scilly stem from absentee property speculation? In contrast to drops in more remote rural areas with declining jobs base & aging population?
    Yes, that was the explanation that first sprung to mind.
    The survey was in March 2021, the height of lockdown, so was probably second homeowners fleeing the Smoke for the country, or foreign climes.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 10,315

    So, suppose the SNP do plan on using the 2024 GE as a plebiscite for indy, if Boris and the Supreme Court say no...
    We get the following result:
    Labour - 283
    Con - 275
    SNP - 48
    Lib Dems - 20
    What does Starmer do? What does Sturgeon do?

    Respect the verdict of the electorate.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,995

    The Supreme Court reinstated a congressional voting map in Louisiana that a federal judge had said diluted the power of Black voters.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/28/us/supreme-court-louisiana-voting-map.html

    Another fucking shadow docket ruling.
    No reasons given.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 15,287

    moonshine said:

    Put up a compelling candidate and beat trump again in an election. Any attempt to incarcerate him in the run up to that election is dangerous and arguably plays into his hands I reckon.

    So if he's broken the law we should... just overlook that?
    The starting point is condemnation by most mainstream Republican politicians. Until that happens I don't see how he can be held to account effectively.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 9,431

    “There is no longer any unity in the states. The USA is dead.”

    Utter hyperbolic hysterical garbage: absolutely premium, top-end PB attention-seeking crap at its very worst.

    See also much commentary on PB during partygate. Countless ‘he’s toast’ comments.
    Still there.
    Might not be for much longer...
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 14,391
    From perusing the threads, I see we are back again - yet again - to the brink of the deranged PB fantasy of the US splitting. Would be laughable if it weren’t so tragic.

    Once again, and for the hard of hearing:

    NOT. GOING. TO. HAPPEN.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,369

    “There is no longer any unity in the states. The USA is dead.”

    Utter hyperbolic hysterical garbage: absolutely premium, top-end PB attention-seeking crap at its very worst.

    You didn't really enjoy @RochdalePioneers contribution then Boba?
  • EPGEPG Posts: 4,676
    IshmaelZ said:

    I see Turkey is now backing the accession of Sweden and Finland

    Should we award Putin a cheap Mercedes and some steak knifes as NATO salesman of the year?

    Yes LOL but the price is Sweden sending Kurds back to Turkey. Which is not a lot different from sending Jews back to Hitler's Germany.
    That is overblown. One may as well compare countries in the 80s sending the Northern Irish back to the UK.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 9,431
    I know she’s 40, but Williams just does not look fit.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,708
    edited June 28

    moonshine said:

    Put up a compelling candidate and beat trump again in an election. Any attempt to incarcerate him in the run up to that election is dangerous and arguably plays into his hands I reckon.

    So if he's broken the law we should... just overlook that?
    The time to use legal or conditional procedure to stop him running again was spring 2021. And Congress blew it.

    What should ideally have happened is a deal struck behind close doors, with trump agreeing to step away from politics entirely in return for clemency. He’s already an old man, I want American democracy to outlive him but the way this is going that’s no longer a guarantee.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 44,442
    Alistair said:

    FPT:
    There seems little point trying not to upset Trump supporters when their man is a fraudulent traitor.

    Try him - and his accomplices - for treason, and quickly; he needs taking out of circulation.

    I see Ginni Thompson is wrapped up in this somehow too. With some effort, there is probably some crime Clarence can be found guilty of too so he be removed from his duties, and a vacancy opened up on the Supreme Court.

    The Supreme Court ruled on whether a set of communications could be released to the Jan 6 committee.

    Thomas was the only justice to rule against releasing the communications.

    E-Mails from his wife were in the info released.

    That he did not recuse himself is appalling but utterly unsurprising.
    Surely this alone is sufficient to impeach him.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 31,292
    EPG said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    I see Turkey is now backing the accession of Sweden and Finland

    Should we award Putin a cheap Mercedes and some steak knifes as NATO salesman of the year?

    Yes LOL but the price is Sweden sending Kurds back to Turkey. Which is not a lot different from sending Jews back to Hitler's Germany.
    That is overblown. One may as well compare countries in the 80s sending the Northern Irish back to the UK.
    I would be very surprised if Sweden send any Kurds back to Turkey against their will.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 53,782
    Be absolutely top drawer fecking hilarious if Trump's loony right wing picks for SCOTUS actually lead to Dems holding the line against expected GOP surge in November thanks to angry suburban woman.

    Although, to be fair to Trump, he has realised the danger in last 48 hours.



  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 14,391

    “There is no longer any unity in the states. The USA is dead.”

    Utter hyperbolic hysterical garbage: absolutely premium, top-end PB attention-seeking crap at its very worst.

    See also much commentary on PB during partygate. Countless ‘he’s toast’ comments.
    Still there.
    Might not be for much longer...
    Indeed. That was tiresome too, as I kept reminding people that he was going nowhere. Eventually Boris might go, but endless casting of him as toast over the last few months was tragically hyperbolic.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 53,782

    From perusing the threads, I see we are back again - yet again - to the brink of the deranged PB fantasy of the US splitting. Would be laughable if it weren’t so tragic.

    Once again, and for the hard of hearing:

    NOT. GOING. TO. HAPPEN.

    Sorry, I disagree.

  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 20,598

    From perusing the threads, I see we are back again - yet again - to the brink of the deranged PB fantasy of the US splitting. Would be laughable if it weren’t so tragic.

    Once again, and for the hard of hearing:

    NOT. GOING. TO. HAPPEN.

    I hope you are right. But hope isn't enough is it. I said "there is no unity in the states". Would be delighted if you could prove there is unity. On almost any major subject.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 10,315
    IshmaelZ said:

    I see Turkey is now backing the accession of Sweden and Finland

    Should we award Putin a cheap Mercedes and some steak knifes as NATO salesman of the year?

    Yes LOL but the price is Sweden sending Kurds back to Turkey. Which is not a lot different from sending Jews back to Hitler's Germany.
    I’ve searched both English and Swedish language articles without finding that information. What is your source for the Kurdish extradition claim?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 53,782

    I see Turkey is now backing the accession of Sweden and Finland

    Should we award Putin a cheap Mercedes and some steak knifes as NATO salesman of the year?

    I think a watch would be more appropriate, symbolic of his time ticking away.
    Or maybe a round of decent western medication chemo as a freebie?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 54,128
    I know little about US politics but the testimony tonight about Trump is shocking beyond compare

    The US seems to be in a deep political crisis and a very unhappy and divided country with no end in sight sadly
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 29,030
    IshmaelZ said:

    I see Turkey is now backing the accession of Sweden and Finland

    Should we award Putin a cheap Mercedes and some steak knifes as NATO salesman of the year?

    Yes LOL but the price is Sweden sending Kurds back to Turkey. Which is not a lot different from sending Jews back to Hitler's Germany.
    Precisely no Kurds will be exported from Sweden to Turkey.

    The Turks don’t expect any, either. That bit is performative theatre. Expect diplomatic histrionics from Turkey *after* accession - “But you pwommised all the Kurds!!!”.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 14,391
    edited June 28

    From perusing the threads, I see we are back again - yet again - to the brink of the deranged PB fantasy of the US splitting. Would be laughable if it weren’t so tragic.

    Once again, and for the hard of hearing:

    NOT. GOING. TO. HAPPEN.

    I hope you are right. But hope isn't enough is it. I said "there is no unity in the states". Would be delighted if you could prove there is unity. On almost any major subject.
    Yes the fact that it is having problems doesn’t mean that there is no unity in the country. It is the United States and it’s one country. Give over with this hysteria.

  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 20,598
    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    Put up a compelling candidate and beat trump again in an election. Any attempt to incarcerate him in the run up to that election is dangerous and arguably plays into his hands I reckon.

    So if he's broken the law we should... just overlook that?
    The time to use legal or conditional procedure to stop him running again was spring 2021. And Congress blew it.

    What should ideally have happened is a deal struck behind close doors, with trump agreeing to step away from politics entirely in return for clemency. He’s already an old man, I want American democracy to outlive him but the way this is going that’s no longer a guarantee.

    He doesn't need clemency. He can fall back on Congress refusing to accept his guilt despite all the evidence. And of the tens of millions of voters who similarly are not interested in the truth or the law. Or sanity.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 53,782

    TimS said:

    Could Roe vs Wade have the effect of making the Republicans appear to be the incumbents?

    Mid terms seem to be a quasi-metronomic reaction against whoever is in the White House at the time, but people will be seeing the conservatives dominated Supreme Court exercising its power and suddenly the GOP don’t seem so much like the opposition. There is incumbency to vote against on both sides.

    Banning abortion is hitting the fault lines in the GOP. The Christian fundamentalists are for it. The free-market types, the angry blue collar Trump folks, and your average suburban centrist aren't/ They don't like abortion but they like having it around as an option.

    They might not - or probably won't go - for the whole Roe v. Wade scope of it. But the first trimester, Plan B or 10-11 week at home option is a different matter. They're not all that concerned if a tiny collection of cells has a soul or whatever.
    One thing is for absolute sure: the mid terms were a script that was nailed down totally and not in a good way for Biden. Suddenly, there is a change.

    Who knows what will happen, but it has shaken the whole thing up imho.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 14,391

    From perusing the threads, I see we are back again - yet again - to the brink of the deranged PB fantasy of the US splitting. Would be laughable if it weren’t so tragic.

    Once again, and for the hard of hearing:

    NOT. GOING. TO. HAPPEN.

    Sorry, I disagree.

    So you think the US is going to split then? What timescale do you put on this? Would you like to bet for a large sum?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 22,974
    edited June 28
    Nigelb said:

    The Supreme Court reinstated a congressional voting map in Louisiana that a federal judge had said diluted the power of Black voters.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/28/us/supreme-court-louisiana-voting-map.html

    Another fucking shadow docket ruling.
    No reasons given.
    It is shameless. They have struck down Dem redistricting and approved GOP maps. All through shadow docket decisions.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 53,782
    Foxy said:
    I see how wont show his face.

  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 5,661

    ComRes confirm a Sindy and Scottish VI poll later this week folliwing todays developments and discussion

    Anyone brave enough for predictions?

    Last referendum poll was 50:50 (Ipsos Scottish Political Monitor)

    https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2022-05/ipsos-scottish-political-monitor-may-2022-charts.pdf

    Last Westminster poll was:

    Ipsos/STV News
    23-29 May 2022
    1,000
    (This is the only Scottish survey by Ipsos since the 2019 GE, so comparison is with that GE)

    SNP 44% (-1)
    Lab 23% (+4%)
    Con 19% (-6%)
    LD 10% (nc)
    Grn 3% (+2)
    oth 2% (+1)

    Last Holyrood poll:

    YouGov / The Times
    Sample Size: 1,115
    Fieldwork: 18-23 May 2022
    (+/- change from 18-22 November 2021)

    Holyrood voting intention - FPTP constituency vote

    SNP 47% (-1)
    Lab 23% (+4)
    Con 18% (-3)
    LD 7% (nc)
    Grn 2% (nc)
    oth 3% (nc)

    Holyrood voting intention - List vote

    SNP 39% (+1)
    Lab 21% (+2)
    Con 18% (-1)
    Grn 10% (-1)
    LD 8% (+1)
    Alba 2% (+1)
    Ref 1% (-1)
    All for Unity 0 (-1)
    UKIP 0 (-1)
    oth 1% (nc)



    Narrow no lead (48 to 52), westminster 42/19/25 ish snp/con/lab is my guess.
    Any yes lead would suggest a surge at the reality of a possible vote and would lead me to suspect yes might be favourite.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 7,210

    moonshine said:

    Put up a compelling candidate and beat trump again in an election. Any attempt to incarcerate him in the run up to that election is dangerous and arguably plays into his hands I reckon.

    So if he's broken the law we should... just overlook that?
    The starting point is condemnation by most mainstream Republican politicians. Until that happens I don't see how he can be held to account effectively.
    And that's the depressing chicken and egg thing.

    Mainstream Republican politicians can't condemn Trump, becuase they rightly fear the mob's reaction. Riding a tiger is great until you want to dismount.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 14,391

    From perusing the threads, I see we are back again - yet again - to the brink of the deranged PB fantasy of the US splitting. Would be laughable if it weren’t so tragic.

    Once again, and for the hard of hearing:

    NOT. GOING. TO. HAPPEN.

    I hope you are right. But hope isn't enough is it. I said "there is no unity in the states". Would be delighted if you could prove there is unity. On almost any major subject.
    You said the USA is dead.

    That is an utterly idiotic statement that you should be ashamed of.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 20,598

    From perusing the threads, I see we are back again - yet again - to the brink of the deranged PB fantasy of the US splitting. Would be laughable if it weren’t so tragic.

    Once again, and for the hard of hearing:

    NOT. GOING. TO. HAPPEN.

    I hope you are right. But hope isn't enough is it. I said "there is no unity in the states". Would be delighted if you could prove there is unity. On almost any major subject.
    Yes the fact that it is having problems doesn’t mean that there is no unity in the country. It is the United States and it’s one country. Give over with this hysteria.

    As I said, will be happy to be corrected that there is really unity on any major political or societal issue you wish to cite.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 9,616
    DavidL said:

    Alistair said:

    FPT:
    There seems little point trying not to upset Trump supporters when their man is a fraudulent traitor.

    Try him - and his accomplices - for treason, and quickly; he needs taking out of circulation.

    I see Ginni Thompson is wrapped up in this somehow too. With some effort, there is probably some crime Clarence can be found guilty of too so he be removed from his duties, and a vacancy opened up on the Supreme Court.

    The Supreme Court ruled on whether a set of communications could be released to the Jan 6 committee.

    Thomas was the only justice to rule against releasing the communications.

    E-Mails from his wife were in the info released.

    That he did not recuse himself is appalling but utterly unsurprising.
    Surely this alone is sufficient to impeach him.

    You can impeach and/or convict via impeachment process, anybody for anything. Same in US as in UK historically.

    IF you have the votes. Which most of the time you will not, for whatever reason.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 9,431
    Pro_Rata said:

    Foxy said:

    areas with the biggest decrease in population in England and Wales

    25 local authorities in England and Wales have seen significant drops in their communities.

    Kensington and Chelsea, the smallest borough in London, had the biggest population fall – down 9.6% – and it was followed by Westminster, down 6.9%

    Ceredigion, a county in the west of Wales, took the next-biggest hit with 5.8%, before Copeland in Cumbria, 5%, and the Isles of Scilly, 4.7%.

    Camden is the only other London borough which saw a population decrease, of 4.6%, whilst Wales’ second-largest city Swansea went down by 0.2%.

    In fact, almost a third of local authorities in Wales – seven out of 22 – saw a drop in population.

    https://metro.co.uk/2022/06/28/map-shows-areas-with-biggest-population-decrease-in-england-and-wales-16905856

    Wondering if declines in K&C, Westminster & Scilly stem from absentee property speculation? In contrast to drops in more remote rural areas with declining jobs base & aging population?
    Yes, that was the explanation that first sprung to mind.
    The survey was in March 2021, the height of lockdown, so was probably second homeowners fleeing the Smoke for the country, or foreign climes.
    Are we saying Camden's population decline is almost entirely due the number of SeanTs that left.
    One out, all out?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 34,507
    Pro_Rata said:

    Foxy said:

    areas with the biggest decrease in population in England and Wales

    25 local authorities in England and Wales have seen significant drops in their communities.

    Kensington and Chelsea, the smallest borough in London, had the biggest population fall – down 9.6% – and it was followed by Westminster, down 6.9%

    Ceredigion, a county in the west of Wales, took the next-biggest hit with 5.8%, before Copeland in Cumbria, 5%, and the Isles of Scilly, 4.7%.

    Camden is the only other London borough which saw a population decrease, of 4.6%, whilst Wales’ second-largest city Swansea went down by 0.2%.

    In fact, almost a third of local authorities in Wales – seven out of 22 – saw a drop in population.

    https://metro.co.uk/2022/06/28/map-shows-areas-with-biggest-population-decrease-in-england-and-wales-16905856

    Wondering if declines in K&C, Westminster & Scilly stem from absentee property speculation? In contrast to drops in more remote rural areas with declining jobs base & aging population?
    Yes, that was the explanation that first sprung to mind.
    The survey was in March 2021, the height of lockdown, so was probably second homeowners fleeing the Smoke for the country, or foreign climes.
    Are we saying Camden's population decline is almost entirely due the number of SeanTs that left.
    Not entirely, the Brexit exodus probably was a component too.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 20,598

    From perusing the threads, I see we are back again - yet again - to the brink of the deranged PB fantasy of the US splitting. Would be laughable if it weren’t so tragic.

    Once again, and for the hard of hearing:

    NOT. GOING. TO. HAPPEN.

    I hope you are right. But hope isn't enough is it. I said "there is no unity in the states". Would be delighted if you could prove there is unity. On almost any major subject.
    You said the USA is dead.

    That is an utterly idiotic statement that you should be ashamed of.
    The "United States" of America are not United. On any major political issue. Are actively seeking to create huge fault lines against the other side. And are succeeding.

    Ashamed? Give over.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 14,391
    ….

  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 10,315
    Pro_Rata said:

    Foxy said:

    areas with the biggest decrease in population in England and Wales

    25 local authorities in England and Wales have seen significant drops in their communities.

    Kensington and Chelsea, the smallest borough in London, had the biggest population fall – down 9.6% – and it was followed by Westminster, down 6.9%

    Ceredigion, a county in the west of Wales, took the next-biggest hit with 5.8%, before Copeland in Cumbria, 5%, and the Isles of Scilly, 4.7%.

    Camden is the only other London borough which saw a population decrease, of 4.6%, whilst Wales’ second-largest city Swansea went down by 0.2%.

    In fact, almost a third of local authorities in Wales – seven out of 22 – saw a drop in population.

    https://metro.co.uk/2022/06/28/map-shows-areas-with-biggest-population-decrease-in-england-and-wales-16905856

    Wondering if declines in K&C, Westminster & Scilly stem from absentee property speculation? In contrast to drops in more remote rural areas with declining jobs base & aging population?
    Yes, that was the explanation that first sprung to mind.
    The survey was in March 2021, the height of lockdown, so was probably second homeowners fleeing the Smoke for the country, or foreign climes.
    Are we saying Camden's population decline is almost entirely due the number of SeanTs that left.
    What a pleasant place Camden must be now.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 30,663

    I know she’s 40, but Williams just does not look fit.

    Great match though.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 79,015
    edited June 28

    moonshine said:

    Put up a compelling candidate and beat trump again in an election. Any attempt to incarcerate him in the run up to that election is dangerous and arguably plays into his hands I reckon.

    So if he's broken the law we should... just overlook that?
    Yes, I get that for many of his supporters 'the establishment' (or deep state, or whatever term they prefer) going after him will just make them rally harder behind him. But if he has committed crimes then of course he has to face consequences, anyone who has committed crimes should. Leaving things to the electorate does not mean nothing can happen to someone who has committed crimes.

    Giving someone a pass because of the trouble they would cause if you don't is what you do with former dictators, not presidents. He wasn't the former, so why go easy on him like one.

    The length any legal action would take he isn't facing conviction for anything this side of 2024 anyway.

    Frankly I'm still astonished he did nothing illegal in that phone call with the Georgia Secretary of State trying to get him to find more votes.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 9,431
    kinabalu said:

    I know she’s 40, but Williams just does not look fit.

    Great match though.
    It is.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 44,442

    DavidL said:

    Alistair said:

    FPT:
    There seems little point trying not to upset Trump supporters when their man is a fraudulent traitor.

    Try him - and his accomplices - for treason, and quickly; he needs taking out of circulation.

    I see Ginni Thompson is wrapped up in this somehow too. With some effort, there is probably some crime Clarence can be found guilty of too so he be removed from his duties, and a vacancy opened up on the Supreme Court.

    The Supreme Court ruled on whether a set of communications could be released to the Jan 6 committee.

    Thomas was the only justice to rule against releasing the communications.

    E-Mails from his wife were in the info released.

    That he did not recuse himself is appalling but utterly unsurprising.
    Surely this alone is sufficient to impeach him.

    You can impeach and/or convict via impeachment process, anybody for anything. Same in US as in UK historically.

    IF you have the votes. Which most of the time you will not, for whatever reason.
    But that , for a judge, is completely indefensible.

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 30,663

    From perusing the threads, I see we are back again - yet again - to the brink of the deranged PB fantasy of the US splitting. Would be laughable if it weren’t so tragic.

    Once again, and for the hard of hearing:

    NOT. GOING. TO. HAPPEN.

    I hope you are right. But hope isn't enough is it. I said "there is no unity in the states". Would be delighted if you could prove there is unity. On almost any major subject.
    Yes the fact that it is having problems doesn’t mean that there is no unity in the country. It is the United States and it’s one country. Give over with this hysteria.

    As I said, will be happy to be corrected that there is really unity on any major political or societal issue you wish to cite.
    They all hate $5 gas?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 9,431

    From perusing the threads, I see we are back again - yet again - to the brink of the deranged PB fantasy of the US splitting. Would be laughable if it weren’t so tragic.

    Once again, and for the hard of hearing:

    NOT. GOING. TO. HAPPEN.

    I hope you are right. But hope isn't enough is it. I said "there is no unity in the states". Would be delighted if you could prove there is unity. On almost any major subject.
    You said the USA is dead.

    That is an utterly idiotic statement that you should be ashamed of.
    The "United States" of America are not United. On any major political issue. Are actively seeking to create huge fault lines against the other side. And are succeeding.

    Ashamed? Give over.
    This country has been similarly divided in recent times over Brexit. Happily Johnson is doing his best to bring us all back together... we all hate his guts now!😀
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,442

    From perusing the threads, I see we are back again - yet again - to the brink of the deranged PB fantasy of the US splitting. Would be laughable if it weren’t so tragic.

    Once again, and for the hard of hearing:

    NOT. GOING. TO. HAPPEN.

    I hope you are right. But hope isn't enough is it. I said "there is no unity in the states". Would be delighted if you could prove there is unity. On almost any major subject.
    Yes the fact that it is having problems doesn’t mean that there is no unity in the country. It is the United States and it’s one country. Give over with this hysteria.

    Look, if you stop doing this, I can stop pointing out that you spent the whole of December 2019 posting Hur hur hur PB bedwetters suggesting Trump gonna violently interfere with the democratic process LOL NOT GOING TO HAPPEN. Less exhausting for both of us and less embarrassing for you.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 15,373
    edited June 28
    Predictions that the US is about about to split, are indeed histrionic.

    Especially coming from a country where one constituent component has announced a referendum of secession scheduled for next year.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 5,661

    Predictions that the US is about about to split, are indeed histrionic.

    Especially coming from a country where one constituent component has announced a referendum of secession scheduled for next year.

    The great Texit adventure
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 29,030

    I see Turkey is now backing the accession of Sweden and Finland

    Should we award Putin a cheap Mercedes and some steak knifes as NATO salesman of the year?

    I think a watch would be more appropriate, symbolic of his time ticking away.
    Or maybe a round of decent western medication chemo as a freebie?
    A miniature of Sainsbury’s* Cathedral. Coated in polonium an nerve agent.

    *My 7 (then) year old daughters joke.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 79,015

    “There is no longer any unity in the states. The USA is dead.”

    Utter hyperbolic hysterical garbage: absolutely premium, top-end PB attention-seeking crap at its very worst.

    See also much commentary on PB during partygate. Countless ‘he’s toast’ comments.
    Still there.
    Might not be for much longer...
    I'm as averse to hyperbole as the next man, but part of the fun of following politics is to get swept up in the moment and overreact. See literally any GE night.

    People think political nerds are boring old farts as it is, nevermind if everyone remained utterly calm and rational in their predictions all the time.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 15,373
    We also heard much daftness about the EU on here, too. A favourite Brexit fantasy, pushed by such luminaries as Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, was that the EU was about to break apart.

    Again, the country nearest to “breaking apart” is actually the UK, so far as I can see.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 26,183
    edited June 28

    From perusing the threads, I see we are back again - yet again - to the brink of the deranged PB fantasy of the US splitting. Would be laughable if it weren’t so tragic.

    Once again, and for the hard of hearing:

    NOT. GOING. TO. HAPPEN.

    I hope you are right. But hope isn't enough is it. I said "there is no unity in the states". Would be delighted if you could prove there is unity. On almost any major subject.
    You said the USA is dead.

    That is an utterly idiotic statement that you should be ashamed of.
    Is it? What really worries me is the talk of attempting to impose extraterritorial controls outwith the anti-abortion states. As was pointed out on the previous thread, the analogous attempts, in trying to enforce the legality of slavery even in states where slavery was banned, did a lot to break up the USA come the 1860s (Dred Scott). Extend that to other areas such as gender equality/rights and contraception, and there you are.
  • TimS said:

    Could Roe vs Wade have the effect of making the Republicans appear to be the incumbents?

    Mid terms seem to be a quasi-metronomic reaction against whoever is in the White House at the time, but people will be seeing the conservatives dominated Supreme Court exercising its power and suddenly the GOP don’t seem so much like the opposition. There is incumbency to vote against on both sides.

    Banning abortion is hitting the fault lines in the GOP. The Christian fundamentalists are for it. The free-market types, the angry blue collar Trump folks, and your average suburban centrist aren't/ They don't like abortion but they like having it around as an option.

    They might not - or probably won't go - for the whole Roe v. Wade scope of it. But the first trimester, Plan B or 10-11 week at home option is a different matter. They're not all that concerned if a tiny collection of cells has a soul or whatever.
    One thing is for absolute sure: the mid terms were a script that was nailed down totally and not in a good way for Biden. Suddenly, there is a change.

    Who knows what will happen, but it has shaken the whole thing up imho.
    Maybe not so much for the mid-terms. Biden being Biden and all. But it will have its effect, like background radiation.

    It's a twist on that saying., A centrist is a conservative who's just knocked up his girlfriend.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 30,663

    moonshine said:

    Put up a compelling candidate and beat trump again in an election. Any attempt to incarcerate him in the run up to that election is dangerous and arguably plays into his hands I reckon.

    So if he's broken the law we should... just overlook that?
    The starting point is condemnation by most mainstream Republican politicians. Until that happens I don't see how he can be held to account effectively.
    And that's the depressing chicken and egg thing.

    Mainstream Republican politicians can't condemn Trump, becuase they rightly fear the mob's reaction. Riding a tiger is great until you want to dismount.
    Thought they could control him. Thought they could use him to get what they want. Kind of like Hitl ... Boris Johnson.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 79,015

    Predictions that the US is about about to split, are indeed histrionic.

    Especially coming from a country where one constituent component has announced a referendum of secession scheduled for next year.

    I think people seriously predicting a split in the USA are wrong, but why would the UK potentially splitting (and being at a more advanced stage of that possibility) pervent someone from also thinking the USA was vulnerable to it? They are unconnected issues.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,995
    DavidL said:

    Alistair said:

    FPT:
    There seems little point trying not to upset Trump supporters when their man is a fraudulent traitor.

    Try him - and his accomplices - for treason, and quickly; he needs taking out of circulation.

    I see Ginni Thompson is wrapped up in this somehow too. With some effort, there is probably some crime Clarence can be found guilty of too so he be removed from his duties, and a vacancy opened up on the Supreme Court.

    The Supreme Court ruled on whether a set of communications could be released to the Jan 6 committee.

    Thomas was the only justice to rule against releasing the communications.

    E-Mails from his wife were in the info released.

    That he did not recuse himself is appalling but utterly unsurprising.
    Surely this alone is sufficient to impeach him.

    It ought to be, but in reality, not unless the Democrats win an unlikely number of Senate seats in November.

    He is a disgrace to the court.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 15,373
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Alistair said:

    FPT:
    There seems little point trying not to upset Trump supporters when their man is a fraudulent traitor.

    Try him - and his accomplices - for treason, and quickly; he needs taking out of circulation.

    I see Ginni Thompson is wrapped up in this somehow too. With some effort, there is probably some crime Clarence can be found guilty of too so he be removed from his duties, and a vacancy opened up on the Supreme Court.

    The Supreme Court ruled on whether a set of communications could be released to the Jan 6 committee.

    Thomas was the only justice to rule against releasing the communications.

    E-Mails from his wife were in the info released.

    That he did not recuse himself is appalling but utterly unsurprising.
    Surely this alone is sufficient to impeach him.

    You can impeach and/or convict via impeachment process, anybody for anything. Same in US as in UK historically.

    IF you have the votes. Which most of the time you will not, for whatever reason.
    But that , for a judge, is completely
    indefensible.
    That is why I suggested he should be simply arrested, tried and imprisoned.

    I presume there is some block on prison inmates sitting on the Supreme Court…

  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 9,616
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Alistair said:

    FPT:
    There seems little point trying not to upset Trump supporters when their man is a fraudulent traitor.

    Try him - and his accomplices - for treason, and quickly; he needs taking out of circulation.

    I see Ginni Thompson is wrapped up in this somehow too. With some effort, there is probably some crime Clarence can be found guilty of too so he be removed from his duties, and a vacancy opened up on the Supreme Court.

    The Supreme Court ruled on whether a set of communications could be released to the Jan 6 committee.

    Thomas was the only justice to rule against releasing the communications.

    E-Mails from his wife were in the info released.

    That he did not recuse himself is appalling but utterly unsurprising.
    Surely this alone is sufficient to impeach him.

    You can impeach and/or convict via impeachment process, anybody for anything. Same in US as in UK historically.

    IF you have the votes. Which most of the time you will not, for whatever reason.
    But that , for a judge, is completely indefensible.

    Won't argue with that!

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_impeachment_investigations_of_United_States_federal_judges

    "On January 5, 1804, a resolution was introduced appointing a select committee to investigate U.S. Supreme Court Associate Justice Samuel Chase.

    The resolution was approved on January 7, 1804. The select committee recommended impeachment in a report submitted to the House on March 6, 1804. On March 13, 1804, the report was approved and a select committee was appointed to draft the impeachment articles.

    The House adopted the select committee's eight articles on March 26, 1804, one of which involved Chase's handling of the trial of John Fries. Two more focused on his conduct in the political libel trial of James Callender. Four articles focused on procedural errors made during Chase's adjudication of various matters, and an eighth was directed to his "intemperate and inflammatory (…) peculiarly indecent and unbecoming (…) highly unwarrantable (…) highly indecent" remarks while "charging" or authorizing a Baltimore grand jury. The Democratic-Republican-controlled United States Senate began the impeachment trial of Chase in early 1805, with Vice President Aaron Burr presiding.

    All the counts involved Chase's work as a trial judge in lower circuit courts. In that era, Supreme Court justices had the added duty of serving as individuals on circuit courts, a practice that was ended in the late 19th century. The heart of the allegations was that political bias had led Chase to treat defendants and their counsel in a blatantly unfair manner. Chase's defense lawyers called the prosecution a political effort by his Democratic-Republican enemies. In answer to the articles of impeachment, Chase argued that all of his actions had been motivated by adherence to precedent, judicial duty to restrain advocates from improper statements of law, and considerations of judicial efficiency.

    The Senate voted to acquit Chase of all charges on March 1, 1805. He returned to his duties on the court. He is the only U.S. Supreme Court Justice to have been impeached.

    The acquittal of Chase – by lopsided margins on several of the counts – is believed to have helped ensure that an independent federal judiciary would survive partisan challenge. As Chief Justice William Rehnquist noted in his book, Grand Inquests, some people expressed opinions at the time of Chase's trial that the Senate had absolute latitude in convicting a jurist it found unfit, but the acquittal set an unofficial precedent that judges would not be impeached based on their performance on the bench. All judges impeached since Chase have been accused of outright criminality."
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 34,507

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Alistair said:

    FPT:
    There seems little point trying not to upset Trump supporters when their man is a fraudulent traitor.

    Try him - and his accomplices - for treason, and quickly; he needs taking out of circulation.

    I see Ginni Thompson is wrapped up in this somehow too. With some effort, there is probably some crime Clarence can be found guilty of too so he be removed from his duties, and a vacancy opened up on the Supreme Court.

    The Supreme Court ruled on whether a set of communications could be released to the Jan 6 committee.

    Thomas was the only justice to rule against releasing the communications.

    E-Mails from his wife were in the info released.

    That he did not recuse himself is appalling but utterly unsurprising.
    Surely this alone is sufficient to impeach him.

    You can impeach and/or convict via impeachment process, anybody for anything. Same in US as in UK historically.

    IF you have the votes. Which most of the time you will not, for whatever reason.
    But that , for a judge, is completely
    indefensible.
    That is why I suggested he should be simply arrested, tried and imprisoned.

    I presume there is some block on prison inmates sitting on the Supreme Court…

    They can be removed by impeachment, but no way would the Senate uphold that.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 20,598

    Predictions that the US is about about to split, are indeed histrionic.

    Especially coming from a country where one constituent component has announced a referendum of secession scheduled for next year.

    I don't for one second think the US will split via a referendum or even by secession. It would split via a civil war / insurrection. Trump almost engineered such an event - we know that now. The nutball element of the GOP seems to not want to accept anything other than victory. And now we have states passing laws of oppression which seem likely to mushroom into a stand-off against the liberal states.

    Sure, there may be a voice of reason out there who finds a centre ground to remind everyone of their shared values. But who is that person? And do most Americans now feel they actually share values with the other side?

    I hope it all calms down. But it's sliding towards the precipice. As I posted the other day, whenever a country collapses into division or totalitarian, voices always Sao "how did we get here" despite all the warning signs.

    January 6th was a big step on their slide. Abolishing Roe another huge step. And the people sliding are demanding more steps. Not an arrest of their slide.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 30,663

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    Put up a compelling candidate and beat trump again in an election. Any attempt to incarcerate him in the run up to that election is dangerous and arguably plays into his hands I reckon.

    So if he's broken the law we should... just overlook that?
    The time to use legal or conditional procedure to stop him running again was spring 2021. And Congress blew it.

    What should ideally have happened is a deal struck behind close doors, with trump agreeing to step away from politics entirely in return for clemency. He’s already an old man, I want American democracy to outlive him but the way this is going that’s no longer a guarantee.

    He doesn't need clemency. He can fall back on Congress refusing to accept his guilt despite all the evidence. And of the tens of millions of voters who similarly are not interested in the truth or the law. Or sanity.
    Not enough support to retake the WH though imo.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 79,015
    Nigelb said:

    The Supreme Court reinstated a congressional voting map in Louisiana that a federal judge had said diluted the power of Black voters.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/28/us/supreme-court-louisiana-voting-map.html

    Another fucking shadow docket ruling.
    No reasons given.
    I'm not really familiar with such a procedure, though have heard about it in the last year. How can it be that decisions by the highest court in the land can be made without reasoning provided? How are people supposed to understand it and ensure they act appropriately for related matters?

    Do we have anything like that in this country?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 15,373
    kle4 said:

    Predictions that the US is about about to split, are indeed histrionic.

    Especially coming from a country where one constituent component has announced a referendum of secession scheduled for next year.

    I think people seriously predicting a split in the USA are wrong, but why would the UK potentially splitting (and being at a more advanced stage of that possibility) pervent someone from also thinking the USA was vulnerable to it? They are unconnected issues.
    Because there tends to be an absurd, bordering on hypocritical blindness about domestic matters from these posters.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,442

    “There is no longer any unity in the states. The USA is dead.”

    Utter hyperbolic hysterical garbage: absolutely premium, top-end PB attention-seeking crap at its very worst.

    See also much commentary on PB during partygate. Countless ‘he’s toast’ comments.
    Still there.
    Might not be for much longer...
    A fearless postdiction. A link to a contemporary post of yours would cement my admiration of you.

    Go ahead.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 1,947

    So, suppose the SNP do plan on using the 2024 GE as a plebiscite for indy, if Boris and the Supreme Court say no...
    We get the following result:
    Labour - 283
    Con - 275
    SNP - 48
    Lib Dems - 20
    What does Starmer do? What does Sturgeon do?

    Respect the verdict of the electorate.
    As opposed to the Tories, who will continue to disrespect the verdict of the electorate.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 20,598
    kle4 said:

    “There is no longer any unity in the states. The USA is dead.”

    Utter hyperbolic hysterical garbage: absolutely premium, top-end PB attention-seeking crap at its very worst.

    See also much commentary on PB during partygate. Countless ‘he’s toast’ comments.
    Still there.
    Might not be for much longer...
    I'm as averse to hyperbole as the next man, but part of the fun of following politics is to get swept up in the moment and overreact. See literally any GE night.

    People think political nerds are boring old farts as it is, nevermind if everyone remained utterly calm and rational in their predictions all the time.
    I called Hartlepool for the Tories within an hour of their MP resigning. I called both Tiverton and Wakefield as soon as they were called on the same day - said put them on an acca. I also said Boris is toast - and he is.

    If Partygate had gone away, he'd survived the confidence vote and the party had moved on then yes he would be fine and I would have been wrong. But what about recent events makes some believe he is rock solid safe? Very very few people in his own team or the cabinet think that - so what do some people here know that they don't?

    Sure, I dress some events up in vivid language. So what? Doesn't make my instincts wrong.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 23,517
    edited June 28
    Have been busy.
    What exactly is the testimony re Trump?
    CBA to read it all.
    Summary?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,442
    EPG said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    I see Turkey is now backing the accession of Sweden and Finland

    Should we award Putin a cheap Mercedes and some steak knifes as NATO salesman of the year?

    Yes LOL but the price is Sweden sending Kurds back to Turkey. Which is not a lot different from sending Jews back to Hitler's Germany.
    That is overblown. One may as well compare countries in the 80s sending the Northern Irish back to the UK.
    Been to Turkey?

    Been to Kurdistan?

    Been to Northern Ireland?

    How the fuck do you "send the Northern Irish back to the UK?"
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 9,616
    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    The Supreme Court reinstated a congressional voting map in Louisiana that a federal judge had said diluted the power of Black voters.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/28/us/supreme-court-louisiana-voting-map.html

    Another fucking shadow docket ruling.
    No reasons given.
    I'm not really familiar with such a procedure, though have heard about it in the last year. How can it be that decisions by the highest court in the land can be made without reasoning provided? How are people supposed to understand it and ensure they act appropriately for related matters?

    Do we have anything like that in this country?
    IIRC, in case such as the Louisiana congressional redistricting issue, SCOTUS can take actions now then explain reasoning later. In order, for example, to prevent delays that might impact issuing of ballots & etc. for 2022 congressional elections.

    Could be wrong here, but think this may be (partial) explanation.
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