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Now Grant Shapps is being talked up as BoJo’s successor – politicalbetting.com

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Nigelb said:

    Now down to one,.

    At least one Tory MP from 2019 intake in advanced talks to defect to Labour
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/27/at-least-one-tory-mp-from-2019-intake-in-advanced-talks-to-defect-to-labour

    Labour quality control ?

    Surely it can't be GB News presenter Dehenna Davison.
    Its not Dehenna. Her seat isnt marginal.
    If Labour won a majority they would win Bishop Auckland
    That doesn't make her seat a marginal does it?
    It does really, only seats which would still be Tory even after a heavy defeat can really be considered not marginal and safe
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,525
    Potential breakthrough on grain (Guardian):

    [UN Sec General Guterres] said a conditional agreement was in place whereby Ukrainian grain would leave three Ukrainian held ports including Odessa with Russian consent without the need for the de-mining of the ports that had been previously thought necessary. The ships would then travel through the Black Sea towards Turkey in designated safe lanes with oversight of the operation jointly being in the hands of Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the UN. Ukraine has accepted a Russian demand that the grain ships are inspected in Turkish waters for weapons before they reach Ukrainian ports.

    The separate discussions with Russia have focussed on ensuring the EU gives guarantees that no sanctions will be imposed on Russia grain exports, and insurance will be provided.
    -----------
    Good for Africa in particular if true, but how is it possible without de-mining?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,565

    Is this an April Fool?

    But it is bollocks.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191

    Potential breakthrough on grain (Guardian):

    [UN Sec General Guterres] said a conditional agreement was in place whereby Ukrainian grain would leave three Ukrainian held ports including Odessa with Russian consent without the need for the de-mining of the ports that had been previously thought necessary. The ships would then travel through the Black Sea towards Turkey in designated safe lanes with oversight of the operation jointly being in the hands of Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the UN. Ukraine has accepted a Russian demand that the grain ships are inspected in Turkish waters for weapons before they reach Ukrainian ports.

    The separate discussions with Russia have focussed on ensuring the EU gives guarantees that no sanctions will be imposed on Russia grain exports, and insurance will be provided.
    -----------
    Good for Africa in particular if true, but how is it possible without de-mining?

    I assume both the Ukranians and Russians know where their own mines are.
    They do drift though..
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    Potential breakthrough on grain (Guardian):

    [UN Sec General Guterres] said a conditional agreement was in place whereby Ukrainian grain would leave three Ukrainian held ports including Odessa with Russian consent without the need for the de-mining of the ports that had been previously thought necessary. The ships would then travel through the Black Sea towards Turkey in designated safe lanes with oversight of the operation jointly being in the hands of Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the UN. Ukraine has accepted a Russian demand that the grain ships are inspected in Turkish waters for weapons before they reach Ukrainian ports.

    The separate discussions with Russia have focussed on ensuring the EU gives guarantees that no sanctions will be imposed on Russia grain exports, and insurance will be provided.
    -----------
    Good for Africa in particular if true, but how is it possible without de-mining?

    Presumably there are safe lanes - for instance AFAIK, most of the mines round Odessa are Ukrainian.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135

    This has to be a bad joke, right?

    Anyway, good to see that Truss's sensible Protocol reforms have made it through the first stages of the Commons. Unsurprising to see that fool May, who created the NI mess in the first place with her moronic sequencing, is against reforms.

    Truss has come up with a good solution and has to keep the pressure up to ensure this is resolved and the Parliament Act is invoked, if needed.

    I'm going to pretend I didn't see this. Best for both of us.
  • HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Nigelb said:

    Now down to one,.

    At least one Tory MP from 2019 intake in advanced talks to defect to Labour
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/27/at-least-one-tory-mp-from-2019-intake-in-advanced-talks-to-defect-to-labour

    Labour quality control ?

    Surely it can't be GB News presenter Dehenna Davison.
    Its not Dehenna. Her seat isnt marginal.
    If Labour won a majority they would win Bishop Auckland
    That doesn't make her seat a marginal does it?
    It kind of does, really.

    Which is something worth thinking about, there are a lot more marginals than people realise - and all those MPs will be thinking about their own job security.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805

    Potential breakthrough on grain (Guardian):

    [UN Sec General Guterres] said a conditional agreement was in place whereby Ukrainian grain would leave three Ukrainian held ports including Odessa with Russian consent without the need for the de-mining of the ports that had been previously thought necessary. The ships would then travel through the Black Sea towards Turkey in designated safe lanes with oversight of the operation jointly being in the hands of Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the UN. Ukraine has accepted a Russian demand that the grain ships are inspected in Turkish waters for weapons before they reach Ukrainian ports.

    The separate discussions with Russia have focussed on ensuring the EU gives guarantees that no sanctions will be imposed on Russia grain exports, and insurance will be provided.
    -----------
    Good for Africa in particular if true, but how is it possible without de-mining?

    Thanks for posting.

    That does sound like good news.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921

    Someone may already have mentioned this in which case apologies, but my favourite online comment of the last 24 hours.

    "The same people who are saying don't have sex and you won't get pregnant, believe in a religion based on the idea that a woman didn't have sex and got pregnant."

    She didn't, as the bible tells us 'she was with child from the Holy Spirit.'

    The Roman Catholic Church is not anti sex and pregnancy, just it should be done within marriage
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited June 2022
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Nigelb said:

    Now down to one,.

    At least one Tory MP from 2019 intake in advanced talks to defect to Labour
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/27/at-least-one-tory-mp-from-2019-intake-in-advanced-talks-to-defect-to-labour

    Labour quality control ?

    Surely it can't be GB News presenter Dehenna Davison.
    Its not Dehenna. Her seat isnt marginal.
    If Labour won a majority they would win Bishop Auckland
    That doesn't make her seat a marginal does it?
    It does really, only seats which would still be Tory even after a heavy defeat can really be considered not marginal and safe
    Bollocks. A seat where you start on 54% and 18% ahead is not a fucking marginal.
    Nor are you looking to defect mid term because 'youre worried about your marginal seat'

    She'd probably hold it given the demographic shift ongoing in BA and her name recognition on a Blair 97 swing
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,523
    HYUFD said:

    Someone may already have mentioned this in which case apologies, but my favourite online comment of the last 24 hours.

    "The same people who are saying don't have sex and you won't get pregnant, believe in a religion based on the idea that a woman didn't have sex and got pregnant."

    She didn't, as the bible tells us 'she was with child from the Holy Spirit.'

    The Roman Catholic Church is not anti sex and pregnancy, just it should be done within marriage
    Woosh. That one went right over your head didn't it.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited June 2022

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Nigelb said:

    Now down to one,.

    At least one Tory MP from 2019 intake in advanced talks to defect to Labour
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/27/at-least-one-tory-mp-from-2019-intake-in-advanced-talks-to-defect-to-labour

    Labour quality control ?

    Surely it can't be GB News presenter Dehenna Davison.
    Its not Dehenna. Her seat isnt marginal.
    If Labour won a majority they would win Bishop Auckland
    That doesn't make her seat a marginal does it?
    It kind of does, really.

    Which is something worth thinking about, there are a lot more marginals than people realise - and all those MPs will be thinking about their own job security.
    Im sorry but it doesnt. She has an 18% margin. Shes not going to be jumping in fear of losing her seat. She can hold that on a massive swing against nationally.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    edited June 2022

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Nigelb said:

    Now down to one,.

    At least one Tory MP from 2019 intake in advanced talks to defect to Labour
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/27/at-least-one-tory-mp-from-2019-intake-in-advanced-talks-to-defect-to-labour

    Labour quality control ?

    Surely it can't be GB News presenter Dehenna Davison.
    Its not Dehenna. Her seat isnt marginal.
    If Labour won a majority they would win Bishop Auckland
    That doesn't make her seat a marginal does it?
    It does really, only seats which would still be Tory even after a heavy defeat can really be considered not marginal and safe
    Bollocks. A seat where you start on 54% and 18% ahead is not a fucking marginal.
    Nor are you looking to defect mid term because 'youre worried about your marginal seat'

    She'd probably hold it given the demographic shift ongoing in BA and her name recognition on a Blair 97 swing
    Yes it is as it is the 108th Labour target seat, they would even win it on UNS if just short of a majority let alone a 1997 style landslide.

    Bishop Auckland was also Labour from 2010 to 2019 even when the Tories won nationally, it is a marginal
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    Still haven't got my £150 quid.
    Tory Red Tape.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Pulpstar said:

    Potential breakthrough on grain (Guardian):

    [UN Sec General Guterres] said a conditional agreement was in place whereby Ukrainian grain would leave three Ukrainian held ports including Odessa with Russian consent without the need for the de-mining of the ports that had been previously thought necessary. The ships would then travel through the Black Sea towards Turkey in designated safe lanes with oversight of the operation jointly being in the hands of Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the UN. Ukraine has accepted a Russian demand that the grain ships are inspected in Turkish waters for weapons before they reach Ukrainian ports.

    The separate discussions with Russia have focussed on ensuring the EU gives guarantees that no sanctions will be imposed on Russia grain exports, and insurance will be provided.
    -----------
    Good for Africa in particular if true, but how is it possible without de-mining?

    I assume both the Ukranians and Russians know where their own mines are.
    They do drift though..
    Yes, but presumably minesweepers will be allowed to operate unmolested within the agreed areas ?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited June 2022
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Nigelb said:

    Now down to one,.

    At least one Tory MP from 2019 intake in advanced talks to defect to Labour
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/27/at-least-one-tory-mp-from-2019-intake-in-advanced-talks-to-defect-to-labour

    Labour quality control ?

    Surely it can't be GB News presenter Dehenna Davison.
    Its not Dehenna. Her seat isnt marginal.
    If Labour won a majority they would win Bishop Auckland
    That doesn't make her seat a marginal does it?
    It does really, only seats which would still be Tory even after a heavy defeat can really be considered not marginal and safe
    Bollocks. A seat where you start on 54% and 18% ahead is not a fucking marginal.
    Nor are you looking to defect mid term because 'youre worried about your marginal seat'

    She'd probably hold it given the demographic shift ongoing in BA and her name recognition on a Blair 97 swing
    Yes it is as it is the 108th Labour target seats, they would even win it on UNS if just short of a majority let alone a 1997 style landslide.

    Bishop Auckland was also Labour from 2017 to 2019 even when the Tories won nationally, it is a marginal
    I said 97 swing, not 97 seat result.
    108th target is not a 'marginal. '

    It can become a 'target' if labour are doing well but it still wouldnt be a marginal
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Scott_xP said:

    There is no question to which "Grant Shapps" is a sensible answer

    “What is the stage name of transport secretary
    Michael Green?”
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,874

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Nigelb said:

    Now down to one,.

    At least one Tory MP from 2019 intake in advanced talks to defect to Labour
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/27/at-least-one-tory-mp-from-2019-intake-in-advanced-talks-to-defect-to-labour

    Labour quality control ?

    Surely it can't be GB News presenter Dehenna Davison.
    Its not Dehenna. Her seat isnt marginal.
    If Labour won a majority they would win Bishop Auckland
    That doesn't make her seat a marginal does it?
    It kind of does, really.

    Which is something worth thinking about, there are a lot more marginals than people realise - and all those MPs will be thinking about their own job security.
    Is my seat marginal?! That'd be fun!
  • HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Nigelb said:

    Now down to one,.

    At least one Tory MP from 2019 intake in advanced talks to defect to Labour
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/27/at-least-one-tory-mp-from-2019-intake-in-advanced-talks-to-defect-to-labour

    Labour quality control ?

    Surely it can't be GB News presenter Dehenna Davison.
    Its not Dehenna. Her seat isnt marginal.
    If Labour won a majority they would win Bishop Auckland
    That doesn't make her seat a marginal does it?
    It kind of does, really.

    Which is something worth thinking about, there are a lot more marginals than people realise - and all those MPs will be thinking about their own job security.
    Im sorry but it doesnt. She has an 18% margin. Shes not going to be jumping in fear of losing her seat. She can hold that on a massive swing against nationally.
    It would take an 8.9% swing next time for her to lose her seat, sure, but it had a 9.5% swing last time. So yes the seat is a marginal that could fall back to Labour next time.

    Which would be a shame. Davison is a good egg from what I've seen, someone the Tories could do with more of. Not that I've seen any of her GB News output, I don't watch that shit, so can't comment on that.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    This has to be a windup, Shapps would be over promoted leading a district council, let alone PM. He is just about treading water as a middle ranking minister nothing more.

    An economic and social liberal is also not what the Tories need to hold the redwall

    Hello H. Not to send you into a fug of envy or anything but I'm going to the Eton Harrow match at Lords tomorrow. It's the last ever one at the home of cricket. They'll have to play it somewhere else from now on. Perhaps at Eton or Harrow. Another casualty of woke. If it aint broke don't fix it, they used to say. No longer.
    Yes sad news, my father was an old Harrovian and was a great summer fixture, only 1 day after all
    Yes I remember you had a connection. You know my feelings on elite schools - cold as ice - but I'm still going to this last one. I like 'last' things.

    Probably have a bigger crowd than the average Middx county game.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    edited June 2022

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Nigelb said:

    Now down to one,.

    At least one Tory MP from 2019 intake in advanced talks to defect to Labour
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/27/at-least-one-tory-mp-from-2019-intake-in-advanced-talks-to-defect-to-labour

    Labour quality control ?

    Surely it can't be GB News presenter Dehenna Davison.
    Its not Dehenna. Her seat isnt marginal.
    If Labour won a majority they would win Bishop Auckland
    That doesn't make her seat a marginal does it?
    It does really, only seats which would still be Tory even after a heavy defeat can really be considered not marginal and safe
    Bollocks. A seat where you start on 54% and 18% ahead is not a fucking marginal.
    Nor are you looking to defect mid term because 'youre worried about your marginal seat'

    She'd probably hold it given the demographic shift ongoing in BA and her name recognition on a Blair 97 swing
    Yes it is as it is the 108th Labour target seats, they would even win it on UNS if just short of a majority let alone a 1997 style landslide.

    Bishop Auckland was also Labour from 2017 to 2019 even when the Tories won nationally, it is a marginal
    I said 97 swing, not 97 seat result.
    108th target is not a 'marginal. '

    It can become a 'target' if labour are doing well but it still wouldnt be a marginal
    Labour need a swing of 8.8% to win Bishop Auckland, some of the latest polls are giving Labour a swing of 9 or 10% since 2019. It is a marginal. On the Wakefield by election swing it would certainly fall to Labour
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    "...several said the president and his inner circle were confounded by Democrats’ discussions about a Plan B when the one person who has defeated Donald J. Trump has made clear he intends to run again."

    "Mr. Biden has told aides he is determined to run again, although he has also noted he will take his family’s advice into account."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/27/us/politics/biden-2024-democrats-trump.html
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Nigelb said:

    Now down to one,.

    At least one Tory MP from 2019 intake in advanced talks to defect to Labour
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/27/at-least-one-tory-mp-from-2019-intake-in-advanced-talks-to-defect-to-labour

    Labour quality control ?

    Surely it can't be GB News presenter Dehenna Davison.
    Its not Dehenna. Her seat isnt marginal.
    If Labour won a majority they would win Bishop Auckland
    That doesn't make her seat a marginal does it?
    It does really, only seats which would still be Tory even after a heavy defeat can really be considered not marginal and safe
    Bollocks. A seat where you start on 54% and 18% ahead is not a fucking marginal.
    Nor are you looking to defect mid term because 'youre worried about your marginal seat'

    She'd probably hold it given the demographic shift ongoing in BA and her name recognition on a Blair 97 swing
    Yes it is as it is the 108th Labour target seats, they would even win it on UNS if just short of a majority let alone a 1997 style landslide.

    Bishop Auckland was also Labour from 2017 to 2019 even when the Tories won nationally, it is a marginal
    I said 97 swing, not 97 seat result.
    108th target is not a 'marginal. '

    It can become a 'target' if labour are doing well but it still wouldnt be a marginal
    There's no reason to set the 2019 results as an immoveable baseline from which any swing should be measured.

    In 2017 it was Labour held, as it had been for almost an entire frigging century and it hadn't been Tory since the 19th century. Of course its a marginal, even if the 2019 results were an aberration away from the margin, it will take more than just one result like that to stop it from being a marginal.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,310
    HYUFD said:

    Someone may already have mentioned this in which case apologies, but my favourite online comment of the last 24 hours.

    "The same people who are saying don't have sex and you won't get pregnant, believe in a religion based on the idea that a woman didn't have sex and got pregnant."

    She didn't, as the bible tells us 'she was with child from the Holy Spirit.'

    The Roman Catholic Church is not anti sex and pregnancy, just it should be done within marriage
    Well she wasn't married to the Holy Spirit was she? But engaged to Joseph. And there is a clue in the fact that she is known as the Virgin Mary.

    But, in any case, what @Richard_Tyndall just said.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Andy_JS said:

    "Stephen Thornton
    @Thornton_health

    How come there are so many empty seats
    @Wimbledon for the Andy Murray match tonight when the likes of me can’t get tickets?

    9:01 PM · Jun 27, 2022·Twitter for iPhone"

    https://twitter.com/Thornton_health/status/1541511961040625667

    "Nia Jones
    @niajones92

    Own up. Who has hogged Wimbledon tickets and NOT EVEN GONE? Totally sold out online yet there are more empty seats at Murray’s match on Centre Court than at a netball match during covid"

    https://twitter.com/niajones92/status/1541503253057347584

    If people don’t take their seats they should be resold at the gates. We seem to have had a similar fiasco for the free tickets at Headingley today, half empty. Trent Bridge seem to know how to manage a full house: just get Notts CC to organise everything,
  • Andy_JS said:

    "Stephen Thornton
    @Thornton_health

    How come there are so many empty seats
    @Wimbledon for the Andy Murray match tonight when the likes of me can’t get tickets?

    9:01 PM · Jun 27, 2022·Twitter for iPhone"

    https://twitter.com/Thornton_health/status/1541511961040625667

    "Nia Jones
    @niajones92

    Own up. Who has hogged Wimbledon tickets and NOT EVEN GONE? Totally sold out online yet there are more empty seats at Murray’s match on Centre Court than at a netball match during covid"

    https://twitter.com/niajones92/status/1541503253057347584

    If people don’t take their seats they should be resold at the gates. We seem to have had a similar fiasco for the free tickets at Headingley today, half empty. Trent Bridge seem to know how to manage a full house: just get Notts CC to organise everything,
    Often at the cricket to be fair the ground can be sold out and everyone present but many, many empty seats.

    Especially at a Test match people will be milling about, going to the bar etc and not just sat in their seats.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,523

    Andy_JS said:

    "Stephen Thornton
    @Thornton_health

    How come there are so many empty seats
    @Wimbledon for the Andy Murray match tonight when the likes of me can’t get tickets?

    9:01 PM · Jun 27, 2022·Twitter for iPhone"

    https://twitter.com/Thornton_health/status/1541511961040625667

    "Nia Jones
    @niajones92

    Own up. Who has hogged Wimbledon tickets and NOT EVEN GONE? Totally sold out online yet there are more empty seats at Murray’s match on Centre Court than at a netball match during covid"

    https://twitter.com/niajones92/status/1541503253057347584

    If people don’t take their seats they should be resold at the gates. We seem to have had a similar fiasco for the free tickets at Headingley today, half empty. Trent Bridge seem to know how to manage a full house: just get Notts CC to organise everything,
    I don't think the Headingly situation was because of this. Most Test venues do not sell anywhere near all their ticket allocation for the final day. The free tickets will be for those just turning up at the gate on the day and for most people that isn't practical on a Monday when they have to work. These things do seem to work better when the last day is a Tuesday rather than a Monday. Not sure why.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    Andy_JS said:

    "Stephen Thornton
    @Thornton_health

    How come there are so many empty seats
    @Wimbledon for the Andy Murray match tonight when the likes of me can’t get tickets?

    9:01 PM · Jun 27, 2022·Twitter for iPhone"

    https://twitter.com/Thornton_health/status/1541511961040625667

    "Nia Jones
    @niajones92

    Own up. Who has hogged Wimbledon tickets and NOT EVEN GONE? Totally sold out online yet there are more empty seats at Murray’s match on Centre Court than at a netball match during covid"

    https://twitter.com/niajones92/status/1541503253057347584

    If people don’t take their seats they should be resold at the gates. We seem to have had a similar fiasco for the free tickets at Headingley today, half empty. Trent Bridge seem to know how to manage a full house: just get Notts CC to organise everything,
    Often at the cricket to be fair the ground can be sold out and everyone present but many, many empty seats.

    Especially at a Test match people will be milling about, going to the bar etc and not just sat in


    their seats.
    That was seemingly not the case today. Lots of people seemingly snaffled up the free tickets then didn’t show up. As I say, Trent Bridge managed a full house when it offered free entry on the final day.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited June 2022
    If Dehenna is considering defecting because of her 'marginal seat' there must be about 150 others in the same boat desperate to jump ship.
    Get real, an MP with an 8000 majority is NOT a candidate for a chicken run defection. They would only defect on idealogical grounds. The article is specific about MPs worried about their marginal seats, not MPs who suddenly feel Starmer all over.
    And i do not accept target 108 is a 'marginal'. Its been moving bluewards for years and accrelerated through and beyond in 2017 and then 2019. Its a site safer now than many below it on the list. It is also not 'safe', but it should be held on anything but a total meltdown night.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    HYUFD said:

    Someone may already have mentioned this in which case apologies, but my favourite online comment of the last 24 hours.

    "The same people who are saying don't have sex and you won't get pregnant, believe in a religion based on the idea that a woman didn't have sex and got pregnant."

    She didn't, as the bible tells us 'she was with child from the Holy Spirit.'

    The Roman Catholic Church is not anti sex and pregnancy, just it should be done within marriage
    "And Sunil spake unto his disciples: 'Know ye that the Lord God was NOT MARRIED to the mother of His only begotten son!'."
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    WHAT does all this jibber-jabber have to do with the price of slivovitz in a Kotor knocking shop?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited June 2022

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Nigelb said:

    Now down to one,.

    At least one Tory MP from 2019 intake in advanced talks to defect to Labour
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/27/at-least-one-tory-mp-from-2019-intake-in-advanced-talks-to-defect-to-labour

    Labour quality control ?

    Surely it can't be GB News presenter Dehenna Davison.
    Its not Dehenna. Her seat isnt marginal.
    If Labour won a majority they would win Bishop Auckland
    That doesn't make her seat a marginal does it?
    It does really, only seats which would still be Tory even after a heavy defeat can really be considered not marginal and safe
    Bollocks. A seat where you start on 54% and 18% ahead is not a fucking marginal.
    Nor are you looking to defect mid term because 'youre worried about your marginal seat'

    She'd probably hold it given the demographic shift ongoing in BA and her name recognition on a Blair 97 swing
    Yes it is as it is the 108th Labour target seats, they would even win it on UNS if just short of a majority let alone a 1997 style landslide.

    Bishop Auckland was also Labour from 2017 to 2019 even when the Tories won nationally, it is a marginal
    I said 97 swing, not 97 seat result.
    108th target is not a 'marginal. '

    It can become a 'target' if labour are doing well but it still wouldnt be a marginal
    There's no reason to set the 2019 results as an immoveable baseline from which any swing should be measured.

    In 2017 it was Labour held, as it had been for almost an entire frigging century and it hadn't been Tory since the 19th century. Of course its a marginal, even if the 2019 results were an aberration away from the margin, it will take more than just one result like that to stop it from being a marginal.
    We will have to just disagree, but ill point out the Toties have gained vote % here every election since 1997, and in 2017 got to 46% adding 14% and falling fractionally short before taking it in 2019 and not from kipper votes but from more direct swing. The seat has moved dramatically and consistently torywards for 25 years with increasing momentum. Its not going to go into hard reverse in line with UNS instantly, it will resist that initially due to momentum lag so even on a big swing nationally i fancy it to be a pretty easy hold (new boundaries notwithstanding).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    edited June 2022
    Cyclefree said:

    HYUFD said:

    Someone may already have mentioned this in which case apologies, but my favourite online comment of the last 24 hours.

    "The same people who are saying don't have sex and you won't get pregnant, believe in a religion based on the idea that a woman didn't have sex and got pregnant."

    She didn't, as the bible tells us 'she was with child from the Holy Spirit.'

    The Roman Catholic Church is not anti sex and pregnancy, just it should be done within marriage
    Well she wasn't married to the Holy Spirit was she? But engaged to Joseph. And there is a clue in the fact that she is known as the Virgin Mary.

    But, in any case, what @Richard_Tyndall just said.
    The Holy Spirit is part of Christian marriages today, when you exchange rings you do so 'in the name of the Father, Son and Holy Spirit.'

    Without the Holy Spirit enabling the Virgin birth of Christ there would be no Christianity for such Christian weddings. Mary and Joseph were of course Jewish
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    This has to be a bad joke, right?

    Anyway, good to see that Truss's sensible Protocol reforms have made it through the first stages of the Commons. Unsurprising to see that fool May, who created the NI mess in the first place with her moronic sequencing, is against reforms.

    Truss has come up with a good solution and has to keep the pressure up to ensure this is resolved and the Parliament Act is invoked, if needed.

    Dear, oh dear.

    Mrs May really didn't create the mess. Your oven ready **** wit Prime Minister on the other hand...

    And this makes matters significantly worse. A trade war in a slump. What could possibly go wrong?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,094
    I think Grant Shapps would be a great choice and a fine leader for this country to get back on track.

    Not really of course, but with seemingly everyone on the thread against him I feel a little bad for him.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Potential breakthrough on grain (Guardian):

    [UN Sec General Guterres] said a conditional agreement was in place whereby Ukrainian grain would leave three Ukrainian held ports including Odessa with Russian consent without the need for the de-mining of the ports that had been previously thought necessary. The ships would then travel through the Black Sea towards Turkey in designated safe lanes with oversight of the operation jointly being in the hands of Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the UN. Ukraine has accepted a Russian demand that the grain ships are inspected in Turkish waters for weapons before they reach Ukrainian ports.

    The separate discussions with Russia have focussed on ensuring the EU gives guarantees that no sanctions will be imposed on Russia grain exports, and insurance will be provided.
    -----------
    Good for Africa in particular if true, but how is it possible without de-mining?

    The Odessa approaches were mined by Ukraine so maybe they are claiming their odessa_mines.xlsx spreadsheet with the locations is both complete and accurate.

    Fizzy Lizzy will be livid that the UK is not involved in this and will be deploying sharp elbows to get in on it.
  • kle4 said:

    I think Grant Shapps would be a great choice and a fine leader for this country to get back on track.

    Not really of course, but with seemingly everyone on the thread against him I feel a little bad for him.

    My Dad walked out on my family back in 1975 and I never saw him again.

    I want Grant Shapps to adopt me.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    edited June 2022
    Wimbledon winner with BE, top 5:

    Iga Swiatek 2.78
    Ons Jabeur 7.4
    Cori Gauff 16.5
    Petra Kvitova 17
    Emma Raducanu 23

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/tennis/wimbledon-2022/womens-tournament-betting-30801716

  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,464
    kle4 said:

    I think Grant Shapps would be a great choice and a fine leader for this country to get back on track.

    Not really of course, but with seemingly everyone on the thread against him I feel a little bad for him.

    he has a track record of posting/posing under pseudonyms doesnt he..... sure you are not the man in question?
    Acc to wikipedia "Shapps's use of the names Michael Green, Corinne Stockheath and Sebastian Fox attracted controversy in 2012. He denied having used a pseudonym after entering parliament and, in 2014, threatened legal action against a constituent who had stated on Facebook that he had..."
  • PensfoldPensfold Posts: 191

    This has to be a bad joke, right?

    Anyway, good to see that Truss's sensible Protocol reforms have made it through the first stages of the Commons. Unsurprising to see that fool May, who created the NI mess in the first place with her moronic sequencing, is against reforms.

    Truss has come up with a good solution and has to keep the pressure up to ensure this is resolved and the Parliament Act is invoked, if needed.

    Dear, oh dear.

    Mrs May really didn't create the mess. Your oven ready **** wit Prime Minister on the other hand...

    And this makes matters significantly worse. A trade war in a slump. What could possibly go wrong?
    May created the mess - along with Davies - by not negotiating the Withdrawal agreement and Trade Agreement together. "Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed was not followed.
  • northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 1,639
    Well folks, I’m sat here waiting for an emergency electrician to turn up.

    The lights circuit in my house has been tripping all day, so no big lights upstairs or downstairs. No biggie, the days are long, got a sparkie booked for tomorrow.

    Didn’t realise the house alarm runs on the same circuit…

    So that’s been running on a battery since it lost mains power.

    Until about half 12. When it started bleeping to warn us there’s no power.

    So I opened the alarm to disconnect the battery.

    Which instantly sets off the main siren.

    No idea how much juice is in the battery. Don’t want it dying and the main siren going off, on this residential street.

    So I’m waiting for an emergency sparkie…
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited June 2022
    Texas: At least 40 found dead in lorry

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-61961871

    Horrific
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,896
    New thread.
This discussion has been closed.