Apologies for missing the Opinium. We were dancing.
Now this is interesting. Below mini thread is two weeks old. It’s where Sunil - aw bless him - called PBs Psephology Eminence “lucky” for calling the last Opinium spot on - so I gave him todays poll outcome two weeks ago - again, spot on.
Sunil_Prasannan said: « hide previous quotes MoonRabbit said: dixiedean said: EPG said: MoonRabbit said: HYUFD said: Johnson cuts the Labour lead to just 2% with Opinium tonight after winning his VONC last week.
How more helpful and polite can I say this? 😆 What exactly have Opinium done to the headline figures? They've got new methodology. They call it building in swingback. They get the raw figures sort of in line with the 6 7 8’s everyone else reporting, and work under the bonnet on idea governments “always” get a certain swing back once elections are announced and campaigns underway, this firm reckon they can say know how much and adjust it into the figures their survey actually returned. I think the mainstream media are more grown up about this these days so you won’t see any silly “labour lead slashed to two” headlines from them like some posts here this evening.
I love this poll, and the fact it’s two a month, because it’s always so predictable for the better and smarter poll analysts (like I was spot on tonight) so I really feel if the headline figures for each party show a consistent shift in this one we can believe it’s going on. I call it luck! It’s actually easy Sunhil. The gaps never been more than 4, labour never more than 38, Tories never lower than the 33 last time that was 33 playing 36, and post vonc polls from other firms, though not many, have been static (let’s see what happens after two weeks) It was easy, and why this poll will be the one to quickly reveal the % for each party is on the move.
I’ll show you how easy it is by telling you the result of the next Opinium poll right here right now. Labour 37/38, Tories 34/33. And I’ll explain why. The post vonc narrative now building and will dominate next few weeks of a governing party split and at war, with awful impact on policies, will feed into that next poll, but it will be surprising if it shifts this methodology more than into gap of 3 or 4.
By all means keep this.
"I call it luck!" - Han Solo in the original Star Wars (1977).
I have seen a few dinosaurs in my time. The Stones were old when I saw them in 82, but by 2018 were ancient. Still worth seeing though.
I swa them at Murrayfield in 1999. Was just incredible. Probably the best concert I have ever been to.
Heard Bruce Springsteen live about 30 years ago. I was sitting in my garden in Stoke Newington while he was appearing in Finsbury Park. No need to buy a ticket. Curious business plan: charge a small fortune then give it away...
Apologies for missing the Opinium. We were dancing.
Now this is interesting. Below mini thread is two weeks old. It’s where Sunil - aw bless him - called PBs Psephology Eminence “lucky” for calling the last Opinium spot on - so I gave him todays poll outcome two weeks ago - again, spot on.
Sunil_Prasannan said: « hide previous quotes MoonRabbit said: dixiedean said: EPG said: MoonRabbit said: HYUFD said: Johnson cuts the Labour lead to just 2% with Opinium tonight after winning his VONC last week.
How more helpful and polite can I say this? 😆 What exactly have Opinium done to the headline figures? They've got new methodology. They call it building in swingback. They get the raw figures sort of in line with the 6 7 8’s everyone else reporting, and work under the bonnet on idea governments “always” get a certain swing back once elections are announced and campaigns underway, this firm reckon they can say know how much and adjust it into the figures their survey actually returned. I think the mainstream media are more grown up about this these days so you won’t see any silly “labour lead slashed to two” headlines from them like some posts here this evening.
I love this poll, and the fact it’s two a month, because it’s always so predictable for the better and smarter poll analysts (like I was spot on tonight) so I really feel if the headline figures for each party show a consistent shift in this one we can believe it’s going on. I call it luck! It’s actually easy Sunhil. The gaps never been more than 4, labour never more than 38, Tories never lower than the 33 last time that was 33 playing 36, and post vonc polls from other firms, though not many, have been static (let’s see what happens after two weeks) It was easy, and why this poll will be the one to quickly reveal the % for each party is on the move.
I’ll show you how easy it is by telling you the result of the next Opinium poll right here right now. Labour 37/38, Tories 34/33. And I’ll explain why. The post vonc narrative now building and will dominate next few weeks of a governing party split and at war, with awful impact on policies, will feed into that next poll, but it will be surprising if it shifts this methodology more than into gap of 3 or 4.
By all means keep this.
"I call it luck!" - Han Solo in the original Star Wars (1977).
“Feel the force, Luke.” Same film.
Picking up scales and broken chords Puppy dog tails in the House of Lords Tell me darlin' What can it mean?
He looks pretty good for 80 but his voice is completely shot.
Slightly depressing for a man who had amazing vocal control and range. He can still scream well, by the sounds of Junior’s Farm.
I fucking love him though.
He was a comically talentless wanker from birth
Owe me shell Owe me bell Song day mow key von tray been on somble
Etc. I wouldn't mention the fact, it's just the slightly more talented Lennon agreed with me.
Haha very good spoof.
McCartney's an absolute musical genius and you know it!
Yeah good point except for any evidence
In the age of the Grateful Dead, Doors, Dylan, Neil Young and Nirvana, bigging up the loveable mopheads is British exceptionalism at its most embarrassing
He looks pretty good for 80 but his voice is completely shot.
Slightly depressing for a man who had amazing vocal control and range. He can still scream well, by the sounds of Junior’s Farm.
I fucking love him though.
He was a comically talentless wanker from birth
Owe me shell Owe me bell Song day mow key von tray been on somble
Etc. I wouldn't mention the fact, it's just the slightly more talented Lennon agreed with me.
You can shine your shoes and wear a suit You can comb your hair and look quite cute You can hide your face behind a smile One thing you can't hide Is when you're crippled inside
You can wear a mask and paint your face You can call yourself the human race You can wear a collar and a tie One thing you can't hide Is when you're crippled inside
Well now, you know That your cat has nine lives, babe Nine lives to itself You only got one And a dog's life ain't fun Momma, take a look outside
He looks pretty good for 80 but his voice is completely shot.
Slightly depressing for a man who had amazing vocal control and range. He can still scream well, by the sounds of Junior’s Farm.
I fucking love him though.
He was a comically talentless wanker from birth
Owe me shell Owe me bell Song day mow key von tray been on somble
Etc. I wouldn't mention the fact, it's just the slightly more talented Lennon agreed with me.
Haha very good spoof.
McCartney's an absolute musical genius and you know it!
Yeah good point except for any evidence
In the age of the Grateful Dead, Doors, Dylan, Neil Young and Nirvana, bigging up the loveable mopheads is British exceptionalism at its most embarrassing
NEW: A Tory donor has been given a senior position within the honours system.
John Booth, who has given the party more than £200k, has been made chair of the committee overseeing arts and media honours. He also has a place on the overall honours committee. 1/4 https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1540816986724253699
.@ShippersUnbound political read: ‘The immediate threat to Johnson remains from his own party. Just three weeks after winning the no-confidence vote, several dozen letters demanding another have already been submitted to Sir Graham Brady.’ That’s 36 letters. On Saturday… Monday? https://twitter.com/emilysheffield/status/1540817055917772804
He looks pretty good for 80 but his voice is completely shot.
Slightly depressing for a man who had amazing vocal control and range. He can still scream well, by the sounds of Junior’s Farm.
I fucking love him though.
He was a comically talentless wanker from birth
Owe me shell Owe me bell Song day mow key von tray been on somble
Etc. I wouldn't mention the fact, it's just the slightly more talented Lennon agreed with me.
Haha very good spoof.
McCartney's an absolute musical genius and you know it!
Yeah good point except for any evidence
In the age of the Grateful Dead, Doors, Dylan, Neil Young and Nirvana, bigging up the loveable mopheads is British exceptionalism at its most embarrassing
NEW: A Tory donor has been given a senior position within the honours system.
John Booth, who has given the party more than £200k, has been made chair of the committee overseeing arts and media honours. He also has a place on the overall honours committee. 1/4 https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1540816986724253699
Used to play centre alongside John Booth. Assume it isn't him?
He looks pretty good for 80 but his voice is completely shot.
Slightly depressing for a man who had amazing vocal control and range. He can still scream well, by the sounds of Junior’s Farm.
I fucking love him though.
He was a comically talentless wanker from birth
Owe me shell Owe me bell Song day mow key von tray been on somble
Etc. I wouldn't mention the fact, it's just the slightly more talented Lennon agreed with me.
Haha very good spoof.
McCartney's an absolute musical genius and you know it!
Yeah good point except for any evidence
In the age of the Grateful Dead, Doors, Dylan, Neil Young and Nirvana, bigging up the loveable mopheads is British exceptionalism at its most embarrassing
All made possible by the Beatles.
Hang on. Dylan made possible by the Beatles?
Well, I'll give you Dylan. Missed him in that list.
He's making them confront the truth - he will not make it easy for them by quitting or improving himself.
They need to stop hoping for either and decide if they can live with that.
The longer he plays this game the worse it becomes with the electorate for the tories.
The rebels have so fecked up by not delaying their letters until this weekend.
"You weren't on any mercy mission this time. Several transmissions were beamed to this ship by Rebel spies. I want to know what happened to the plans they sent you!"
Don't forget Opinium accounts for Tory swing back.
This has got to be the polling organisation to give us our first Tory crossover on Starmer and Rayner's imminent convictions.
Have you got your patter in the bag in the case they don’t get them?
I think Mail and others pushed it thinking it would help Boris, but it turns out there will be much inherent vice in that if Starmer has to quit leaving Boris still there. What could be the pro Boris line? “Starmer doesn’t actually need to quit?”
Don't forget Opinium accounts for Tory swing back.
This has got to be the polling organisation to give us our first Tory crossover on Starmer and Rayner's imminent convictions.
Have you got your patter in the bag in the case they don’t get them?
I think Mail and others pushed it thinking it would help Boris, but it turns out there will be much inherent vice in that if Starmer has to quit leaving Boris still there. What could be the pro Boris line? “Starmer doesn’t actually need to quit?”
Of course I can't be sure, but the Chief Constable has a point to prove. Her predecessor suggested not following the Cummings line of "move along, nothing to see" was an error. A conviction vindicates her call
If FPNs are issued, both Starmer and Rayner will absolutely fall on their swords. The Mail have made a monumental error in demanding Starmer appears more guilty than Johnson. Johnson is then faced with a LOTO less lacklustre than Starmer.
Burnham declares his desire to lead Labour and introduce PR
So many posts on here supporting PR maybe he has a point
And he would at least be an improvement on the present leader of the opposition
No he wouldn't. He is not the politician he thinks he is
Nor is his PR what he thinks it is if he is just knocking on about AV (which, after all, was rejected by the electorate in 2011).
I think there's a strong argument for extending proportionality at local level - Labour won 61.5% of the vote in Newham in May but 97% of the seats (64). The Greens won 17% of the vote and just 3% of the seats (2) - the Conservatives got 14% and nothing.
Under strict proportionality, Labour would have had 41 seats, 11 for the Greens, 9 for the Conservatives, 3 for the LDs and 2 for the TUSC. Labour would still be in charge of course but you would hear a plurality and diversity of opinion in the Council chamber rather than mostly the same voices with the occasional Green response.
I am much less convinced about Westminster elections where there is a special and historic relationship between "the member" and "the constituency" and the risk is of establishing two "classes" of MP though that happens in many other countries seemingly without a problem so perhaps it's not as significant as we think, or is it?
In my personal experience it works really well in Scotland.
It's a measure of how bad FPTP is that, while the Holyrood system combines some of the worst aspects of FPTP with some of the worst variants of PR (closed lists) I still prefer it to FPTP alone.
There are several alternatives for Westminster that would be better, and I'd be delighted if the system at Holyrood was improved.
I guess I’m weird in that I like the compromise it brings to the table between a constituency MP and proportionality. How would you improve it? Explain like I’m five since a lot of voting system terminology is a bit over my head.
The worst thing about the current Scottish system is that it encourages voters to game the system. At the beginning of Holyrood the game was to vote tactically for Labour in the constituencies (to keep the Tories out) and then for another non-Tory party on the list. Now Independence supporters can play the same game voting SNP in the constituencies and Green on the list. A voting system shouldn't reward voters for thinking deeply about how to manipulate the voting system - it should simply be a way of translating public opinion into a legislature to represent it.
This is similar to one of the things that I don't like about FPTP - that it rewards tactical voting, and encourages voters to vote against parties, rather than for them.
Ideally the voting system should not get in the way of the voter clearly expressing their opinion about the candidates. They shouldn't have to guess how other people are going to vote, or understand the nuances of the voting system to work out how to best exploit it to make the most use of their vote.
No voting system is perfect, but one attraction of STV is that I can't think of any way in which a voter can vote tactically. The best approach for a voter is simply to do what the voting paper asks them to do - to rank the candidates in order of preference. There are tactical considerations for the parties, in terms of how many candidates they stand, and we saw some of the drawbacks that can result in the recent Scottish local council elections, but for the voter they can concentrate on the candidates and the policies they advocate.
There are a few Beatles refuseniks in the population. They are to be pitied.
Same as people who don’t “get” Bach, Shakespeare, Miles Davis, Kubrick, Picasso, or Michelangelo.
McCartney is a weak lyricist but Shakespeare’s comedies aren’t especially funny either.
Shakespeare's comedies aren't especially funny to you or me because we miss most of the references that would have been obvious to a contemporary audience. Try showing the best comedies of the 20th century - the best Monty Python or National Lampoon stuff, say - to an audience in 400 years and see if they find it funny.
The whole point about comedy is that it subverts what is expected, and so how can you expect to find it funny if you don't understand what is expected?
Don't forget Opinium accounts for Tory swing back.
This has got to be the polling organisation to give us our first Tory crossover on Starmer and Rayner's imminent convictions.
Have you got your patter in the bag in the case they don’t get them?
I think Mail and others pushed it thinking it would help Boris, but it turns out there will be much inherent vice in that if Starmer has to quit leaving Boris still there. What could be the pro Boris line? “Starmer doesn’t actually need to quit?”
Of course I can't be sure, but the Chief Constable has a point to prove. Her predecessor suggested not following the Cummings line of "move along, nothing to see" was an error. A conviction vindicates her call
If FPNs are issued, both Starmer and Rayner will absolutely fall on their swords. The Mail have made a monumental error in demanding Starmer appears more guilty than Johnson. Johnson is then faced with a LOTO less lacklustre than Starmer.
Any Starmer replacement comes with their own inherent vices, voting history, and personality downsides - you do accept this Mr Mexican grass is always greener on other side Pete. As a right of centre Libdem supporter I have no problem with Starmer becoming Primeminister. If neither party leader changes I’m confident he beats Boris by at least four points. Boring ain’t a issue in a PM if they are quietly effective and on top of things behind the desk in Downing Street, and there’s no attack or revelation so far that makes me think he won’t be.
Maybe boring is best way to fight interesting, and boring best antidote to politics which had become far too interesting for too long. If you try to fight interesting with interesting it might just prove a leveller as in Paper Scissors Stone.
There are a few Beatles refuseniks in the population. They are to be pitied.
Same as people who don’t “get” Bach, Shakespeare, Miles Davis, Kubrick, Picasso, or Michelangelo.
McCartney is a weak lyricist but Shakespeare’s comedies aren’t especially funny either.
Shakespeare's comedies aren't especially funny to you or me because we miss most of the references that would have been obvious to a contemporary audience. Try showing the best comedies of the 20th century - the best Monty Python or National Lampoon stuff, say - to an audience in 400 years and see if they find it funny.
The whole point about comedy is that it subverts what is expected, and so how can you expect to find it funny if you don't understand what is expected?
If you are pro life the main gain is for the Supreme Court to have shifted the issue of abortion to the states. That way even if you cannot make abortion mostly illegal US wide as the polling shows, you can do so in GOP controlled states where anti abortion sentiment is stronger, especially in the South.
As the polling also shows most Republican voters back the SC's decision
Comments
Massive LOL.
Yeh, right.
The original is anguished, not self-congratulatorily plodding.
And basically nobody in the industry has a bad word to say about him.
They need to stop hoping for either and decide if they can live with that.
https://twitter.com/presidentabo/status/1540730290892578816
Gabon is making history by officially becoming a member of the @commonwealthsec on 25 June 2022.
62 years after its Independence, our country is getting ready to breakthrough with a new chapter.
It’s a world of opportunities for Gabon
on the economic, diplomatic & cultural levels
That and being an Evertonian.
Sorry what do I mean "now"?
Owe me shell
Owe me bell
Song day mow key von tray been on somble
Etc. I wouldn't mention the fact, it's just the slightly more talented Lennon agreed with me.
He leads as “normal” a life it’s possible to do when you’re a Beatle.
I think one of the reasons I love him is that he reminds me of my Dad (born 1935 in Birkenhead).
Dylan is 81.
Paul Simon is 80, but not really active.
McCartney's an absolute musical genius and you know it!
Deafness is a terrible scourge.
Puppy dog tails in the House of Lords
Tell me darlin'
What can it mean?
In the age of the Grateful Dead, Doors, Dylan, Neil Young and Nirvana, bigging up the loveable mopheads is British exceptionalism at its most embarrassing
https://www.bobdylan.com/on-tour/
No one can moan his voice is shot. He still releases material. Intermittently.
Too intelligent.to die.
Mavis Staples does, aged 82.
You can comb your hair and look quite cute
You can hide your face behind a smile
One thing you can't hide
Is when you're crippled inside
You can wear a mask and paint your face
You can call yourself the human race
You can wear a collar and a tie
One thing you can't hide
Is when you're crippled inside
Well now, you know
That your cat has nine lives, babe
Nine lives to itself
You only got one
And a dog's life ain't fun
Momma, take a look outside
Still going.
John Booth, who has given the party more than £200k, has been made chair of the committee overseeing arts and media honours. He also has a place on the overall honours committee. 1/4
https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1540816986724253699
He looks like my uncle Gordon though.
https://twitter.com/emilysheffield/status/1540817055917772804
Dylan made possible by the Beatles?
This has got to be the polling organisation to give us our first Tory crossover on Starmer and Rayner's imminent convictions.
Last man standing!
Same as people who don’t “get” Bach, Shakespeare, Miles Davis, Kubrick, Picasso, or Michelangelo.
McCartney is a weak lyricist but Shakespeare’s comedies aren’t especially funny either.
I think Mail and others pushed it thinking it would help Boris, but it turns out there will be much inherent vice in that if Starmer has to quit leaving Boris still there. What could be the pro Boris line? “Starmer doesn’t actually need to quit?”
The Supreme Court's power depends on its legitimacy. It has given that away.
https://fallows.substack.com/p/a-branch-of-government-self-destructs
@KevinASchofield
·
45m
Tory MP Andrew Bridgen says: "I don’t mind if the PM stays till 2030, he can resign at 9pm if he wants."
Tony Bennett retired last year at 95.
Willie Nelson - Legalize Skechers
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yLniw4PvLj8
Now he's getting going.
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2022/jun/25/cocaine-class-everyone-in-this-town-takes-drugs-all-the-time
Interesting documentary from 1991 about local people who weren't fans of the Docklands / Canary Wharf development.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uMwesTFo8vM
is clearly right.....
Like politics attracts odd people (no disrespect PB) but usually they don't actually get to Parliament... but sometimes they do...
If FPNs are issued, both Starmer and Rayner will absolutely fall on their swords. The Mail have made a monumental error in demanding Starmer appears more guilty than Johnson. Johnson is then faced with a LOTO less lacklustre than Starmer.
It had the highest turnout in the country in 1992: 86%.
This is similar to one of the things that I don't like about FPTP - that it rewards tactical voting, and encourages voters to vote against parties, rather than for them.
Ideally the voting system should not get in the way of the voter clearly expressing their opinion about the candidates. They shouldn't have to guess how other people are going to vote, or understand the nuances of the voting system to work out how to best exploit it to make the most use of their vote.
No voting system is perfect, but one attraction of STV is that I can't think of any way in which a voter can vote tactically. The best approach for a voter is simply to do what the voting paper asks them to do - to rank the candidates in order of preference. There are tactical considerations for the parties, in terms of how many candidates they stand, and we saw some of the drawbacks that can result in the recent Scottish local council elections, but for the voter they can concentrate on the candidates and the policies they advocate.
By Alex Forsyth
Political correspondent, BBC News"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61939938
The whole point about comedy is that it subverts what is expected, and so how can you expect to find it funny if you don't understand what is expected?
Maybe boring is best way to fight interesting, and boring best antidote to politics which had become far too interesting for too long. If you try to fight interesting with interesting it might just prove a leveller as in Paper Scissors Stone.
As the polling also shows most Republican voters back the SC's decision