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If the Tories hold Tiverton & Honiton then Johnson will surely survive – politicalbetting.com
If the Tories hold Tiverton & Honiton then Johnson will surely survive – politicalbetting.com
Quite simply a majority of 24,239 has never before been surmounted in a Westminster by-election. This is a huge hurdle for the LDs to overturn especially as they start in third place.
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A swing of the same magnitude as in N Shropshire (34%) would see the LDs home by a margin of 22%. The LDs also started there on 3rd, with a 10% vote share, and 53% behind the Conservatives.
If the by-election had been triggered for less disreputable reasons then a defeat might have been seen as more damaging.
From Sovats Vozni, Dilijan, Armenia
20% more like. And I don't think that is at all likely.
Labour 40% (-2)
Conservative 33% (-1)
Liberal Democrat 13% (+1)
Green 5% (+1)
Reform UK 5% (-2)
Scottish National Party 4% (+1)
Other 1% (–)
Changes +/- 15 June
https://t.co/CKqEKxoomO https://t.co/Xby2zSIq3X
The unbearable dullness goes on
Am I the only PBer whose singing talents are so notable they've been mentioned in a book?
(That is a very carefully worded statement...)
i really would like to see a Scotland only poll. I wonder what Nicola’s indyref2 commitment has done to their polling, It could be good or bad, depending how you see it
My guess is: marginally bad. It will shave off a couple of points
If the SNP start to fall towards 40 it gets more interesting
I have a decent sense in general of where the extant copies of this book are likely to be located, but it would be fascinating to track them over time.
Probably a typo.
There were only 45k votes in total at the GE.
10k maybe. On 50% plus turnout
Starmer: -3 (+3)
Sunak: -6 (+1)
Johnson: -24 (-5)
Best PM:
Starmer v Johnson
Starmer: 37% (-1)
Johnson: 33% (-)
Starmer v Sunak
Starmer: 38% (-3)
Sunak: 31% (-)
Truss vs Johnson
Truss: 19% (-)
Johnson: 35% (+1)
Sunak vs Johnson
Sunak: 28% (-)
Johnson: 32% (-)
SKS continues to bore himself to Downing Street
Not really new info, but first time I have seen it all put together in such detail.
BORED APE NAZI CLUB
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XpH3O6mnZvw
How the mighty have fallen!
Approve: 27% (-4)
Disapprove: 51% (+1)
Net: -24% (-5)
Changes +/- 15 June
This is Corbyn levels
One thing he really needs to borrow from Blair though is a Clause 4 moment.
For people like me, economically right of centre and socially liberal, but strongly valuing managerial professionalism, it would be very, very, very hard to vote for a party that a little over 3 years ago, wanted to put a toxic hard left firebrand like Corbyn into power. Many of those MPs who were complicit in that are still there.
Blair's Clause 4 moment proved that Labour in power would be sympathetic to business - what will Starmer do to prove that Labour have moved on from the Corbyn years. It's not about personalities (suspending individuals from the party), it's about policy as Clause 4 was.
Snores 4.
Approve: 29% (–)
Disapprove: 31% (-3)
Net: -2% (+3)
Changes +/- 15 June
If only Keir could be a bit more like Jeremy, Labour could be losing again
This is the book:
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Shake-Well-Before-Use-Isaacs/dp/0955773008/
By quite an inspirational guy. Who survived hearing me sing....
And history suggests, it's much more pleasant to bring house prices into line by increasing supply, than by reducing incomes (and therefore demand).
WRT renting: there are good reasons for people to rent. Owning a home is great if it's somewhere you plan on being for a long, long time. It's not such a great idea if you think your needs might change in the near future, or that you may need to move somewhere else. It's also (almost) always going to be the case that people moving out of home/university aren't immediately in a place (financially) to buy their own home.
Reduction in VAT to 15% would be an interesting one, it says we're a tax cutting party, but the tax we're cutting is the regressive one that hurts the poor the most. It would also help bring the cost of living down.
To understand the housing market all you have to do is ask yourself: on the night of 15 April 1912 were the officers of RMS Titanic saying to one another We must do something to make lifeboat places more *affordable*
Expensive, and they would need £33 bn of extra taxes just for a baseline.
About the same as the amount spent on the zero rate CGT on Main dwellings loophole for owner occupiers, the wealthier parts of society.
Hmmm. An interesting shift of resources. It would be noticed.
I didn’t go to school with anyone famous. Couple of minor rugby league players, that’s about it.
My missus’s brother has been mates for years with Dave Hemingway, from the Beautiful South. I got on the guest list to a few of their gigs before they split. Loads of free booze! He’s a nice bloke, very shy and unassuming.
It’s the most regressive tax in the country right now (apart from the TV Tax), and it’s feeding into inflation on everything that needs transport.
That is how much pain is being felt at the pump. It's literally all my non-London friends talk about any more. And, as you say, it makes everything else more expensive due to increased transportation costs.
Basically, though, you need to put aside or borrow around 20 years' rent to buy somewhere. Unless you plan to have somewhere to pass on to family, why would you want to spend 20 years focusing on acquiring one asset which you'll finally own when you're old? Why not just rent and enjoy life in lots of different ways, all of them costing smaller amounts? Yes, when you're 75 you'll still have rent to pay, but by then maybe you won't miss the other joys of an active life so much?
The point is simply that it's daft to be dogmatic about it. Some people want to focus on owning their home, some don't. There's no right or wrong to it.
June 22 - Starmer proposes massive cut or end of fuel duty. Sunak declares it a joke policy and shows Labour are not serious about managing finances.
Sept 22 - Johnson announces the massive cut or end of fuel duty. Sunak proclaims him a genius and fully backs the policy.
GE - Everyone remembers Bozo's fuel duty cut and people say why dont the opposition have any original policies?
In the US last week, even some of the ‘friendly’ news networks dropped the stage-managed prime-time “January 6” hearings, to switch to “Gas Is Five Bucks A Gallon!”
I live in one of the cheapest places to buy petrol, but it’s still more than doubled in the last six months - to 90p a litre, so I’m not really complaining - but the lower-paid staff, often with longer commutes from the suburbs, are definitely noticing it.
(I checked because a swing that large is, uh, unusual.)
Anyone know how good that polling is?
The Left has to be crushed, for all time, and everywhere
LDs, the little boy who cried too close to call
She was in the year below me.
DJ Mark Radcliffe was a couple of years above.
He was too cool for me though.
The very poorest don't have cars.
Is that true in Britain? (And, other nations, if you happen to know?)
(This is important, whether you think declining fertility rates in industrial nations is mostly a problem, or mostly a solution.)
It's amazing how their polling always picks up these incredibly tight contests.
People working low-paid shift work, with no public transport options, are those being completely screwed by what will next week be £2/litre petrol.
1) greater labour mobility
2) savings and other capital are invested in productive businesses rather than bricks and mortar.
In Venn Diagram terms Lib Dem campaigning is a completely enclosed subset of Bullshit
A policy that can be enshrined in a single action, vote or strapline for today?
It would not be about basic ideology. There are no important differences between the main parties (Nats excepted). It would have to be about these things: Competence. Truthfulness. Honesty. Long term plan.
There would be millions and milliosn of votes for any party that could get all state managed/funded institutions to just: Answer the phone, be accessible by email and respond, deal with issues rapidly end effectively, and do brilliantly the many millions of jobs they purport to do.
But there is at the moment no belief that this sort of competence is possible.
A lot of low income people are working in shitty low-paid jobs, to which they need to travel. Many of those not working have to travel regularly to attend job centre interviews, job interviews etc, or if they are ill, work capability assessments and/or medical appointments.
If there were enough lifeboats then more lives would have been saved, that was lesson from RMS Titanic.
If there were more houses then more houses would be affordable.
Current "planning" policy is designed to constrain houses/lifeboats in order to make the houses/lifeboats that people already are in possession of more valuable, rather than ensuring there is an adequate supply for everyone.
Internal LD forecasting, according to the internal rumour mill, has correctly forecast ALL the LD gains - and ALL the near-misses - since the 2016 referendum. How accurately these numbers have been leaked or reported is a separate question. The players - LD and their rivals - are always going to say "we're very close, but it's all about what we do on the day, and that's looking a lot closer than the polls seem to be saying"
Personally, I'd still say the odds for a Tory hold are still good value.
And a Tory hold would merely make Johnson safe till his next foulup. Which we can confidently expect by the end of July.
Getting an electric car isn't a viable option for the low income people, but getting a beaten up old car and putting fuel into it is.
How many lifeboats does one family need?
I haven't seen any formal studies, but I have long thought, on general economics grounds, that the US tax system, by encouraging the wealthy to invest immense sums in mansions, has hurt our economic growth.
(Elon Musk set a good example, recently, by living in an inexpensive, innovative, manufactured home. The video of it being set up is entertaining, I think.)
Yes, the real problem is the low-income people who have no public transport options. They are being seriously affected by the price of petrol.
https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2022/06/spacex-fired-employees-who-wrote-letter-slamming-musks-embarrassing-behavior/
Free speech is fine and dandy for multi billionaires. Their employees... less so.
Don't believe the hype about Musk.
The idea that fuel prices are not regressive is very droll.
“Grooming gang ringleader was employed by Oldham Council as welfare officer, major report reveals”
The guy who was revealed as a mass rapist and sexual terrorist in Rochdale was also employed by Oldham council. As a “welfare officer”. How the fuck does something like that happen without incredible levels of corruption and back-scratching, with added rape? Indeed, thousands of rapes over many years?
We bleat on and on about fucking wallpaper in Number 10, but this is off the dial
https://news.sky.com/story/oldham-grooming-report-finds-police-and-councils-failed-to-protect-some-children-from-sexual-exploitation-12637246
“The ringleader of a notorious grooming gang was employed as a welfare rights officer by Oldham Council, a major report has revealed.
An independent review said Shabir Ahmed, who led the sexual abuse ring in Rochdale, was seconded to the Oldham Pakistani Community Centre during his time working for the local authority.
Despite multiple concerns being raised about him and his arrest for the sexual assault of children, police failed to tell his employers.
"If this had happened, it may have potentially avoided the tragic abuse of other children..." the report states, citing "serious multiple failures" by both GMP and the local authority.”
Look at the chaos that was The Washington post last week, for another example of how corporate America is going mad at the moment.
Or look at the chaos that was Disney a few weeks earlier, with employees threatening to quit en masse unless the company took a particular stance on a controversial piece of legislation in Florida - for which the company lost a massive tax exemption they’d enjoyed for decades.