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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP top the ComRes “most favoured party” list and move up

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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,034
    Tim_B said:

    Tom said:

    Many clubs won't sell tickets to someone with no booking history who is not local for a game when the away end is sold out. Crystal palace, Southampton and Ipswich in the last couple of years against west ham.

    It's probably worth pointing out that there is no concept of 'the away end' in American professional sports. No attempt is made to separate fans of opposing teams at venues. I've usually sat next to fans of the opposing team at baseball, football and hockey games.

    College sports is different, because of the block ticket allocations.
    It is unique to football so far as I can work out, doesn't happen with cricket or either rugby code certainly.
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    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    edited January 2014
    Pulpstar said:

    Only football that needs fans seperating !

    To tell the truth, and it sounds very cliched, but it really is a million times better that it was when I first started going as a kid. Even then I can remember fights inside/outside the ground. I can honestly say I haven't seen any fighting in or around the ground for many years. The fact that a team like Fulham can have a neutral end shows how much the game has come on. It is a much more of a family occasion now, those that can afford it, and that can only be for the better.
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    TomTom Posts: 273


    Don't Fulham FC have a "neutral stand" ?



    Yes, although it tends to end up as an extension to the away part - it's next to it.
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    MikeK said:

    Great picture of Farage, had someone spilled his pint?

    Well the guardian would pick a photo of Farage in the worst possible light, wouldn't they?
    Nonsense. He's just channeling his inner-Freddie Mercury.

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    Pulpstar said:

    Only football that needs fans seperating !

    One of the reasons I love cricket and Rugby Union so much is that the fans mingle, take pee out of each other and don't need to be segregated.

    Every two years, tens of thousands of Englishmen go to Dublin for a weekend for a Rugby match, drink the place dry and there's bugger all problems and arrests.

    The Garda are lovely.

    I hate to go over for an Republic of Ireland v England football match though.
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    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    The major problem for the game now is not violence, but the cost. There are teams that do try and keep the prices down, however, there are not many in the PL. There are still some in the CL that you can get to many games with Adult/Child tickets for £20-£25 which is actually cheaper than some in the leagues below.
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    From the Sunday Times

    UP TO 450,000 Poles are being mobilised by pro-EU campaigners to vote in Britain’s European elections after David Cameron’s call for a crackdown on their benefits.

    Campaigners are also playing on migrants’ fears over the Conservative promise of a referendum on European Union membership by 2017. They are sending letters to Polish migrants stating: “This may be your last chance to vote in Britain” and “Your future and that of your family, community and friends may depend on it.”


    Others such as the Italians, French, Germans etc are being targeted by pro-EU activists in the hope their support will help defeat UKIP and Eurosceptic Tory candidates in the May election. In all, they account for 2.6m migrants in Britain.

    I hope those 'pro EU campaigners' aren't linked to a UK political party. Benefits-for-foreigners would not play well.
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Tim_B said:

    Tom said:

    Many clubs won't sell tickets to someone with no booking history who is not local for a game when the away end is sold out. Crystal palace, Southampton and Ipswich in the last couple of years against west ham.

    It's probably worth pointing out that there is no concept of 'the away end' in American professional sports. No attempt is made to separate fans of opposing teams at venues. I've usually sat next to fans of the opposing team at baseball, football and hockey games.

    College sports is different, because of the block ticket allocations.
    Historically, before low-cost airlines, would many American fans have been able to follow their team hundreds if not thousands of miles to away games?
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    The Sunday Times say Rennard will turn up at the Lords on Monday, to annoy Clegg, he had agreed that whilst the investigation was ongoing, not to turn up.

    He's also not been sent a copy of the report.
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    The film 'Howl' is currently being shown on BBC 2. Rather apt given this evenings discussions.
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    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    The only soccer match I attended in my life was Spurs v Leeds United in about 1971 at White Hart Lane.

    The ground was a disgrace, my buddy had warned me often not to say a word as 2 Yorkshiremen in the midst of Spurs fans woudn't be good, and it is the most unpleasant and miserable experience I recall at a sporting event.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,380

    Pulpstar said:

    Only football that needs fans seperating !

    To tell the truth, and it sounds very cliched, but it really is a million times better that it was when I first started going as a kid. Even then I can remember fights inside/outside the ground. I can honestly say I haven't seen any fighting in or around the ground for many years. The fact that a team like Fulham can have a neutral end shows how much the game has come on.
    I was giving a talk to a delegation from Switzerland a few weeks ago and was shocked to be asked what our magic formula was that prevented the hooliganism so common among Swiss football fans. Regulars here will know that I see Switzerland as an example of peace and civilisation so, er, I was flummoxed. (I mentioned it here - someone said the brill idea had been to make it too expensive for hooligans!)
    Socrates said:

    I know we're not allowed to talk about moderation, but are we allowed to talk about the rule that we're not allowed to talk about moderation? I have an opinion about it, but wouldn't want to accidentally breach the wise and benevolent rules that have been kindly bestowed upon us.

    Oh please. Let's just not debate each other, or the site rules. If someone wants to, let them set up a debatinginternalstuffandeachotherforever.com site.

    On a happier note, glad Mike's being watching The Bridge - I've been glued to it every Saturday too. Series 2 is definitely grimmer than Series 1, but the evolution of the main characters would be fascinating even if there wasn't a megaplot to follow. Slightly too many characters though IMO - I'm struggling to keep up with everyone and how they interrelate before someone bumps them off.

    Has anyone been to see Coriolanus in London, with the actress who plays Saga?


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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    "Daniel Hannan ‏@DanHannanMEP Jan 16
    "Little Englander" meant "opponent of the Boer War". Now it's a favourite Europhile insult, but surely the Little Englanders were right."

    twitter.com/DanHannanMEP/status/423745807896956928
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,071
    TSE - Labour's vote share is falling but you would expect that given the recent improvement in economic news after 3 disappointing years. Will the Tories' fortunes improve with the economy? They're still polling where they were 12 months ago with ICM. They had 36% last year with the gold standard in July after Cameron attempted to knight Andy Murray follwoing his Wimbledon victory. Otherwise they're stuck in the low 30s.

    It is hard to see the Tories getting more than 35-36% of the vote at the next election. It is hard to see Labour not getting at least 35% of the vote at the next election. Therefore, for all the reasons discussed on here ad nauseam, it is hard not to see Labour getting most seats at the next general election. I remain of the view that Cameron needs a game-changer. The closest he's come was his EU veto moment.
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    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Tim_B said:

    Tom said:

    Many clubs won't sell tickets to someone with no booking history who is not local for a game when the away end is sold out. Crystal palace, Southampton and Ipswich in the last couple of years against west ham.

    It's probably worth pointing out that there is no concept of 'the away end' in American professional sports. No attempt is made to separate fans of opposing teams at venues. I've usually sat next to fans of the opposing team at baseball, football and hockey games.

    College sports is different, because of the block ticket allocations.
    Historically, before low-cost airlines, would many American fans have been able to follow their team hundreds if not thousands of miles to away games?
    Low cost is a relative term - Southwest is not Ryanair. I remember in 2004 getting a round trip flight from Stansted to Malaga for about 20 pounds. Not over here.

    Many NFL teams - and the NFL - have packages they aggressively market for fans who want to attend road games.
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    valleyboyvalleyboy Posts: 605
    Wonder if Mr Eagles put money on that 17/2 Man City to win 5-0 bet. As a Cardiff fan I claim a moral victory. lol
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    valleyboy said:

    Wonder if Mr Eagles put money on that 17/2 Man City to win 5-0 bet. As a Cardiff fan I claim a moral victory. lol

    I've found it very profitable to bet on the total Man City goals than the exact result.

    Had two bets on, 13/2 that there would be exactly 5 Man City goals and 15/2 on 6 or more Man City goals.

    So when the score was 4-1, and Jeff Stelling announced there was another goal at the Etihad.....


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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,034

    TSE - Labour's vote share is falling but you would expect that given the recent improvement in economic news after 3 disappointing years. Will the Tories' fortunes improve with the economy? They're still polling where they were 12 months ago with ICM. They had 36% last year with the gold standard in July after Cameron attempted to knight Andy Murray follwoing his Wimbledon victory. Otherwise they're stuck in the low 30s.

    It is hard to see the Tories getting more than 35-36% of the vote at the next election. It is hard to see Labour not getting at least 35% of the vote at the next election. Therefore, for all the reasons discussed on here ad nauseam, it is hard not to see Labour getting most seats at the next general election. I remain of the view that Cameron needs a game-changer. The closest he's come was his EU veto moment.


    Labour to poll fewer votes and win more seats than Conservatives now 4/1

    I took Max at 8-1 (£10), then max (£3.66) again at 11-2. Got the bet averaged up to the 4-1 that they now have the price set at...

    If the betting goes well this General Election I'm going to start making P Power shop visits...

    What was amusing was that as soon as I put the £3.66 on the market got suspended and the price cut :P
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,380

    TSE - Labour's vote share is falling but you would expect that given the recent improvement in economic news after 3 disappointing years. Will the Tories' fortunes improve with the economy? They're still polling where they were 12 months ago with ICM. They had 36% last year with the gold standard in July after Cameron attempted to knight Andy Murray follwoing his Wimbledon victory. Otherwise they're stuck in the low 30s.

    It is hard to see the Tories getting more than 35-36% of the vote at the next election. It is hard to see Labour not getting at least 35% of the vote at the next election. Therefore, for all the reasons discussed on here ad nauseam, it is hard not to see Labour getting most seats at the next general election. I remain of the view that Cameron needs a game-changer. The closest he's come was his EU veto moment.

    I think that's broadly right. It's actually not obvious that Labour's share is going anywhere much outside the 37-39 range (top end tonight) - the exception being the polls that for methodological reasons put UKIP higher at the expense of all the others. The position hasn't really changed since last spring, when Labour's 40+bounce did evaporate down to the 37-39 level.

    I can see the Tories getting 35 if they manage to sort themselves out, and still think we may see something of a return of the big 2 duopoly in seats, based on something like Lab 37 Con 35 UKIP 12 LD 9. The calm LibDem fatalism as they head for the abyss is remarkable - yes, they'll hold some seats with personal votes, but on current trends, not a lot.

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    TSE - Labour's vote share is falling but you would expect that given the recent improvement in economic news after 3 disappointing years. Will the Tories' fortunes improve with the economy? They're still polling where they were 12 months ago with ICM. They had 36% last year with the gold standard in July after Cameron attempted to knight Andy Murray follwoing his Wimbledon victory. Otherwise they're stuck in the low 30s.

    It is hard to see the Tories getting more than 35-36% of the vote at the next election. It is hard to see Labour not getting at least 35% of the vote at the next election. Therefore, for all the reasons discussed on here ad nauseam, it is hard not to see Labour getting most seats at the next general election. I remain of the view that Cameron needs a game-changer. The closest he's come was his EU veto moment.

    That 36/36 poll was an outlier, and said so at the time.

    The Tories polling in the low 30s isn't an issue per se for me, considering they polled 36% last time.

    All things considered, I'm fully expecting Ed Miliband to be PM next year.

    What I don't want is him losing the popular vote, but getting the most seats/a majority, which is where I think we're heading.

    In the past, that's happened, and people accepted it, we're in a different era, and I don't think a result like that will be accepted.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,034
    "What I don't want is him losing the popular vote, but getting the most seats/a majority, which is where I think we're heading."

    You have a shedload of betting shops near where you work - Didn't you head down to Paddy's and fill your boots with the incredible 8-1 they offered on Labour loses vote, wins seats :) ?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,034
    Btw That bet is almost an exact proxy for Lab Most seats, No overall Majority.
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    Pulpstar said:

    "What I don't want is him losing the popular vote, but getting the most seats/a majority, which is where I think we're heading."

    You have a shedload of betting shops near where you work - Didn't you head down to Paddy's and fill your boots with the incredible 8-1 they offered on Labour loses vote, wins seats :) ?

    That wasn't a betting related post, it was more of an observation for his premiership.

    Every thing he tries to do will be met with shouts of no mandate, and I'm expecting major legal challenges/judicial reviews to everything he tries to do.

    That's not going to be good for the country.
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    PS - I've been to three different Paddy Power shops and put money on Lab most votes/2nd in the popular vote.
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,071
    Nick Palmer - You don't see the Lib Dems holding up well against the Tories which has been the finding from the Ashcroft marginals poll? Can't be good for Labour if the Lib Dems are going to be reduced to a handful of seats.

    TSE - The reaction of the Tory media if that happens would be fascinating. However everyone is aware of the rules of the game at the start. Simply getting most votes is irrelevant. We all know the result comes down to 100-200 constituencies where the election is really fought. In many other parts of the country plenty of supporters won't be so fussed about voting because they know what the result will be and their single vote won't make a difference.

    When you say the result won't be accepted - by whom?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,034

    Pulpstar said:

    "What I don't want is him losing the popular vote, but getting the most seats/a majority, which is where I think we're heading."

    You have a shedload of betting shops near where you work - Didn't you head down to Paddy's and fill your boots with the incredible 8-1 they offered on Labour loses vote, wins seats :) ?

    That wasn't a betting related post, it was more of an observation for his premiership.

    Every thing he tries to do will be met with shouts of no mandate, and I'm expecting major legal challenges/judicial reviews to everything he tries to do.

    That's not going to be good for the country.
    He'll be in a coalition with the Lib Dems - if he wins the popular vote I think he may well be within a couple of seats anyway so can be a de facto Majority with the Sinn Fein abstentions and also I'd expect the SDLP to prop him up.

    It'd be pretty funny though if the MSM suddenly noted how completely bias the system is in favour of Labour when I didn't hear so much as a squeak about the lack of boundary changes this parliament. Not a squeak. Suddenly everyone will start complaining because Ed Miliband has got in on 33.5% of the vote whereas Dave is out in the cold on 34%.

    As LiamT said in relation to Rennard you don't blame the gainer/victim of a system (Miliband/Rennard) you need to go about fixing the system.

    I suspect alot of centre-left voters will be quite pleased too.
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    Nick Palmer - You don't see the Lib Dems holding up well against the Tories which has been the finding from the Ashcroft marginals poll? Can't be good for Labour if the Lib Dems are going to be reduced to a handful of seats.

    TSE - The reaction of the Tory media if that happens would be fascinating. However everyone is aware of the rules of the game at the start. Simply getting most votes is irrelevant. We all know the result comes down to 100-200 constituencies where the election is really fought. In many other parts of the country plenty of supporters won't be so fussed about voting because they know what the result will be and their single vote won't make a difference.

    When you say the result won't be accepted - by whom?

    Conservative activists/MPs/people damaged/opposed by his policies - Put it this way, if Ed is short of a majority,but Dave wins the popular vote, and a coalition isn't feasible for a variety of reasons for either Lab or the Cons, what happens.

    Dave's going to squat in Downing Street, until he loses a Queen's Speech vote at the end of May.

    Ed becomes PM.

    Ed proposes a Queen's speech with his new banking and energy proposals, the other parties agree not to vote down his Queen's speech.

    But when the debate happens on the new banking bill, the Tories could debate it, and Labour wouldn't have a majority to guillotine the bill, Tories can delay things and keep on reminding Ed and the country, Ed has no mandate.

    That makes governing very difficult.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,034

    PS - I've been to three different Paddy Power shops and put money on Lab most votes/2nd in the popular vote.

    Do you not think you have just PRETTY MUCH guaranteed Ed's illegitimacy by your betting actions ?

    Oh you might moan but England's fate down under was sealed the moment TSE tipped up 5-0...
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    Pulpstar said:

    PS - I've been to three different Paddy Power shops and put money on Lab most votes/2nd in the popular vote.

    Do you not think you have just PRETTY MUCH guaranteed Ed's illegitimacy by your betting actions ?

    Oh you might moan but England's fate down under was sealed the moment TSE tipped up 5-0...
    Nah, given my form this week, I put £30 quid a pop on a Tory Maj and Tory most seats the other day.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,034

    Pulpstar said:

    PS - I've been to three different Paddy Power shops and put money on Lab most votes/2nd in the popular vote.

    Do you not think you have just PRETTY MUCH guaranteed Ed's illegitimacy by your betting actions ?

    Oh you might moan but England's fate down under was sealed the moment TSE tipped up 5-0...
    Nah, given my form this week, I put £30 quid a pop on a Tory Maj and Tory most seats the other day.
    What odds ? 13/8 and 7/2 ?
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    Before I go to bed, I've backed England to win the 3rd ODI and the series at 9/4 and 16/1 respectively.

    Dan Hodges predicted England wont ever win another match, and I've backed England,there can only be one outcome on current tipping forms.
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    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    PS - I've been to three different Paddy Power shops and put money on Lab most votes/2nd in the popular vote.

    Do you not think you have just PRETTY MUCH guaranteed Ed's illegitimacy by your betting actions ?

    Oh you might moan but England's fate down under was sealed the moment TSE tipped up 5-0...
    Nah, given my form this week, I put £30 quid a pop on a Tory Maj and Tory most seats the other day.
    What odds ? 13/8 and 7/2 ?
    Something like that, I think it was the other way around though.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,034
    Only Dan Hodges would take 13/8 on a Conservative majority, and only he would lay 7/2 on most seats if he was a bookie ;D
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    Pulpstar said:

    Only Dan Hodges would take 13/8 on a Conservative majority, and only he would lay 7/2 on most seats if he was a bookie ;D

    Mike's great talent is getting the likes of Dan Hodges and Harry Phibbs to accept bets on a Tory Majority at evens.

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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,071
    TSE - how long do you expect Cameron to survive as Tory leader once he's no longer PM?

    And what about the Lib Dems? They can always be relied upon to act in the 'national interest'. I still expect to see 30 of them in Parliament. Clegg (presuming he survives, though we've debated that once too often) will have a decision to make. He may want to prop up Cameron but what happens if the Tories knife Cameron first? And saying that if a deal with Labour is the only viable option, would Clegg turn his back? It's hard to see the current coalition getting over 326 at the moment.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,034

    Pulpstar said:

    Only Dan Hodges would take 13/8 on a Conservative majority, and only he would lay 7/2 on most seats if he was a bookie ;D

    Mike's great talent is getting the likes of Dan Hodges and Harry Phibbs to accept bets on a Tory Majority at evens.

    I thought it was COn most seats with OGH/Dan ?

    Con majority at Evens - wow only

    Oh wait this is Dan Hodges !
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    TSE - how long do you expect Cameron to survive as Tory leader once he's no longer PM?

    And what about the Lib Dems? They can always be relied upon to act in the 'national interest'. I still expect to see 30 of them in Parliament. Clegg (presuming he survives, though we've debated that once too often) will have a decision to make. He may want to prop up Cameron but what happens if the Tories knife Cameron first? And saying that if a deal with Labour is the only viable option, would Clegg turn his back? It's hard to see the current coalition getting over 326 at the moment.

    Dave will announce his resignation as Tory leader the moment he ceases to be PM.

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    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Only Dan Hodges would take 13/8 on a Conservative majority, and only he would lay 7/2 on most seats if he was a bookie ;D

    Mike's great talent is getting the likes of Dan Hodges and Harry Phibbs to accept bets on a Tory Majority at evens.

    I thought it was COn most seats with OGH/Dan ?

    Con majority at Evens - wow only

    Oh wait this is Dan Hodges !
    Yeah you're right the bets are Tory most seats.

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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,034

    TSE - how long do you expect Cameron to survive as Tory leader once he's no longer PM?

    And what about the Lib Dems? They can always be relied upon to act in the 'national interest'. I still expect to see 30 of them in Parliament. Clegg (presuming he survives, though we've debated that once too often) will have a decision to make. He may want to prop up Cameron but what happens if the Tories knife Cameron first? And saying that if a deal with Labour is the only viable option, would Clegg turn his back? It's hard to see the current coalition getting over 326 at the moment.

    Dave will announce his resignation as Tory leader the moment he ceases to be PM.

    Ye he won't hand around long.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,034
    Offtopic:

    EU Moves to Ban Most Plastics By 2020

    http://ecowatch.com/2014/01/15/eu-to-ban-hazardous-plastics-by-2020/

    Normally I'd say bloody EU, green numpties etc etc

    But my job is entirely related to the glass industry ;)
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,071

    TSE - how long do you expect Cameron to survive as Tory leader once he's no longer PM?

    And what about the Lib Dems? They can always be relied upon to act in the 'national interest'. I still expect to see 30 of them in Parliament. Clegg (presuming he survives, though we've debated that once too often) will have a decision to make. He may want to prop up Cameron but what happens if the Tories knife Cameron first? And saying that if a deal with Labour is the only viable option, would Clegg turn his back? It's hard to see the current coalition getting over 326 at the moment.

    Dave will announce his resignation as Tory leader the moment he ceases to be PM.

    You don't think his own backbenchers will hunt him down whilst he's squatting in No.10 a la Gordon Brown circa? Perhaps it wouldn't be worth it if it was clear the game was up. However if the numbers suggest Dave can put another coalition together won't a fair few of the awkward squad try to turf him out before he can put together a coalition so the Tories can return to their rightful place in opposition and the country can endure 5 years of Ed Miliband after which they will be yearning for a true blue Tory leader in the mould of Mrs Thatcher - or so they see it.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,027
    bit of a nerdy moment, but does anyone know what the buttons on the speakers chair do (just to the right of his shoulder)?

    http://i.imgur.com/1W2LNqe.png
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    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    edited January 2014
    That is a very bold claim, I would have thought that the way that Michael Howard framed his 'delayed' resignation as Conservative Leader might allow Cameron the same freedom to set the agenda for a subsequent Leadership contest.

    TSE - how long do you expect Cameron to survive as Tory leader once he's no longer PM?

    And what about the Lib Dems? They can always be relied upon to act in the 'national interest'. I still expect to see 30 of them in Parliament. Clegg (presuming he survives, though we've debated that once too often) will have a decision to make. He may want to prop up Cameron but what happens if the Tories knife Cameron first? And saying that if a deal with Labour is the only viable option, would Clegg turn his back? It's hard to see the current coalition getting over 326 at the moment.

    Dave will announce his resignation as Tory leader the moment he ceases to be PM.

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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    RobD said:

    bit of a nerdy moment, but does anyone know what the buttons on the speakers chair do (just to the right of his shoulder)?

    http://i.imgur.com/1W2LNqe.png

    I'm guessing, but ring the division bell?
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Rennard 'could face new investigation'
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-25798256

    which is so wrong-headed I'm lost for words. The LibDem witch-hunt is starting to bear an uncanny resemblance to one of my own experiences. That ended badly, with the implosion of the organization and the personal bankruptcies of the witchfinders...

    The people who are "bringing the party into disrepute" are those who are contumaciously and publicly contesting the party's own rules, and its lawful decisions.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/nick-cleggs-job-on-the-line-lib-dem-leader-to-face-decisive-vote-on-whether-to-allow-lord-rennard-to-return-9069607.html
    A long-serving Liberal Democrat MP said: “It is certainly the case that strength and breadth of support for Lord Rennard in the Lords is quite eyebrow-raising. You have to remember that the Lords is stuffed full of lawyers who are angry over the cavalier way that proper procedure has been thrown to the wind.”

    Well, thank God for LibDem lawyers... Farron and Clegg would be wise to listen to them.
This discussion has been closed.