Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Johnson backers a bit less confident about his survival – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited June 3 in General
imageJohnson backers a bit less confident about his survival – politicalbetting.com

Read the full story here

«1

Comments

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 41,647
    First unlike Boris
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,062
    I see Shanghai back to square one, areas going back into Viagra hard lockdown.
  • pingping Posts: 2,398
    edited May 21
    Noise. Probably just one punter making a trade that only marginally affects the price in a fairly illiquid market.

    My own personal view, as I’ve been saying - even in the darkest days of partygate - is that 2024 or later, is value. It remains so.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 41,202
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 100,923
    edited May 21
    Johnson will survive, he avoided wipeout in the local elections and the poll rating for the Tories is not yet devastating.

    He will have a harder time being re elected though, leftwingers on twitter predictably already saying Trump and Morrison now down and only Boris left to go. As of tomorrow when Albanese is sworn in as PM of Australia, Boris will be the only conservative leader left in the Anglosphere and G7 outside of Japan. At least until Italy votes next summer there is no prospect of that changing
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 9,077
    Nigelb said:
    You think Carrie will want that to compliment the new No. 10 wallpaper?

    Probably NOT!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,178

    Nigelb said:
    As a former Prime Minister once said, I take full responsibility for what happened and that is why the individual responsible has been sacked.
    Greater love hath no man than this, that he should lay down his friends for his life.

    Said Jeremy Thorpe in 1963...
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 36,885

    Nigelb said:
    You think Carrie will want that to compliment the new No. 10 wallpaper?

    Probably NOT!
    Were has she disappeared to , is she staying with friends.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 41,202
    edited May 21
    ping said:

    Noise. Probably just one punter making a trade that only marginally affects the price in a fairly illiquid market.

    My own personal view, as I’ve been saying - even in the darkest days of partygate - is that 2024 or later, is value. It remains so.

    Perhaps - even probably.
    But it is another moment of danger for him, as he prepares to sacrifice various minions (of varying culpability) in his stead.
  • TresTres Posts: 1,131
    malcolmg said:

    Nigelb said:
    You think Carrie will want that to compliment the new No. 10 wallpaper?

    Probably NOT!
    Were has she disappeared to , is she staying with friends.
    Locked up in the tower?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 9,077
    Australian 2022 general election result > handwriting on the wall for Boris & "true" Tories?

    Mene mene tekel upharsin
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 711
    HYUFD said:

    Johnson will survive, he avoided wipeout in the local elections and the poll rating for the Tories is not yet devastating.

    He will have a harder time being re elected though, leftwingers on twitter predictably already saying Trump and Morrison now down and only Boris left to go. As of tomorrow when Albanese is sworn in as PM of Australia, Boris will be the only conservative leader left in the Anglosphere and G7 outside of Japan. At least until Italy votes next summer there is no prospect of that changing

    The next election could be after POTUS elections 2024?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 100,923
    edited May 21
    Monkeys said:

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson will survive, he avoided wipeout in the local elections and the poll rating for the Tories is not yet devastating.

    He will have a harder time being re elected though, leftwingers on twitter predictably already saying Trump and Morrison now down and only Boris left to go. As of tomorrow when Albanese is sworn in as PM of Australia, Boris will be the only conservative leader left in the Anglosphere and G7 outside of Japan. At least until Italy votes next summer there is no prospect of that changing

    The next election could be after POTUS elections 2024?
    It could be, January 2025 is the limit, so there is a possibility Johnson could have PM Salvini or PM Meloni and President Trump or President DeSantis for company as fellow conservative leaders in the G7 by the time he has to face re election

    For at least the next year however, only Fumio Kishida can keep him company as a fellow conservative within the G7 and amongst the anglosphere leaders he now has no fellow conservatives for company at all after Morrison's defeat
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 6,482
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:
    As a former Prime Minister once said, I take full responsibility for what happened and that is why the individual responsible has been sacked.
    Greater love hath no man than this, that he should lay down his friends for his life.

    Said Jeremy Thorpe in 1963...
    But Boris can't do that, because he doesn't have (m)any friends. Mostly minions.

    I suppose the bigger question is the Donald Trump one- is there anything that Boris could do which would bring down sufficient wrath to eject him from the Premiership before the next General Election?

    And if push comes to shove, is he petulant enough to push the next GE into 2025, even if it means campaigning over Christmas?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 22,722
    edited May 21
    HYUFD said:

    Johnson will survive, he avoided wipeout in the local elections and the poll rating for the Tories is not yet devastating.

    He will have a harder time being re elected though, leftwingers on twitter predictably already saying Trump and Morrison now down and only Boris left to go. As of tomorrow when Albanese is sworn in as PM of Australia, Boris will be the only conservative leader left in the Anglosphere and G7 outside of Japan. At least until Italy votes next summer there is no prospect of that changing

    Yes.
    There doesn't seem to be much serious attention paid to this trend. You and me have mentioned it a few times over the past several months.
    Do you have a theory why?

    Edit. Why it is happening.
    Not why isn't being widely commented on.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,178
    If Case is sacked, that will mean a third CS in just four years.

    If Acland-Hood goes too, that will be the third permanent US at the DFE in three years.

    Perhaps we should stop referring to 'permanent' secretaries?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 17,417
    HYUFD said:

    Johnson will survive, he avoided wipeout in the local elections and the poll rating for the Tories is not yet devastating.

    He will have a harder time being re elected though, leftwingers on twitter predictably already saying Trump and Morrison now down and only Boris left to go. As of tomorrow when Albanese is sworn in as PM of Australia, Boris will be the only conservative leader left in the Anglosphere and G7 outside of Japan. At least until Italy votes next summer there is no prospect of that changing

    Boris has become a bit of a millstone. Penny Mordaunt vs. Keir Starmer, would be a different story.
  • TresTres Posts: 1,131
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson will survive, he avoided wipeout in the local elections and the poll rating for the Tories is not yet devastating.

    He will have a harder time being re elected though, leftwingers on twitter predictably already saying Trump and Morrison now down and only Boris left to go. As of tomorrow when Albanese is sworn in as PM of Australia, Boris will be the only conservative leader left in the Anglosphere and G7 outside of Japan. At least until Italy votes next summer there is no prospect of that changing

    Yes.
    There doesn't seem to be much serious attention paid to this trend. You and me have mentioned it a few times over the past several months.
    Do you have a theory why?

    Edit. Why it is happening.
    Not why isn't being widely commented on.
    Blowback from the Trump failed coup focusing minds in the rest of the democratic world?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,178

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:
    As a former Prime Minister once said, I take full responsibility for what happened and that is why the individual responsible has been sacked.
    Greater love hath no man than this, that he should lay down his friends for his life.

    Said Jeremy Thorpe in 1963...
    But Boris can't do that, because he doesn't have (m)any friends. Mostly minions.

    I suppose the bigger question is the Donald Trump one- is there anything that Boris could do which would bring down sufficient wrath to eject him from the Premiership before the next General Election?

    And if push comes to shove, is he petulant enough to push the next GE into 2025, even if it means campaigning over Christmas?
    I was thinking more of the irony of what happened to Thorpe...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,015
    Tres said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson will survive, he avoided wipeout in the local elections and the poll rating for the Tories is not yet devastating.

    He will have a harder time being re elected though, leftwingers on twitter predictably already saying Trump and Morrison now down and only Boris left to go. As of tomorrow when Albanese is sworn in as PM of Australia, Boris will be the only conservative leader left in the Anglosphere and G7 outside of Japan. At least until Italy votes next summer there is no prospect of that changing

    Yes.
    There doesn't seem to be much serious attention paid to this trend. You and me have mentioned it a few times over the past several months.
    Do you have a theory why?

    Edit. Why it is happening.
    Not why isn't being widely commented on.
    Blowback from the Trump failed coup focusing minds in the rest of the democratic world?
    The idea of political cycles, world wide, is the subject of many a byline.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 100,923
    edited May 21
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson will survive, he avoided wipeout in the local elections and the poll rating for the Tories is not yet devastating.

    He will have a harder time being re elected though, leftwingers on twitter predictably already saying Trump and Morrison now down and only Boris left to go. As of tomorrow when Albanese is sworn in as PM of Australia, Boris will be the only conservative leader left in the Anglosphere and G7 outside of Japan. At least until Italy votes next summer there is no prospect of that changing

    Yes.
    There doesn't seem to be much serious attention paid to this trend. You and me have mentioned it a few times over the past several months.
    Do you have a theory why?

    Edit. Why it is happening.
    Not why isn't being widely commented on.
    I expect post Covid the need for continued state support for businesses and families is a factor, cultural overreach by some conservatives in the culture wars ignoring climate change etc and being too aggressive on immigration and trans (even if many swing voters have concerns about them).

    As of tomorrow the West will have its greatest concentration of world leaders from the centre or liberal left since the late 1990s, when Blair, Schroder, Clinton, Clark, Chretien, Prodi and D'Alema and Jospin as French PM were in power (with Chirac as conservative President still).

    Then Howard in Australia and Aznar in Spain defied the trend, now Spain and Australia also have centre left PMs with Boris left alone amongst the Scholz, Biden, Ardern, Trudeau, Conte, Macron, Sanchez and Albanese crowd of the liberal left
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,062
    edited May 21
    Re Australia. Amazing how quickly having a world leading Covid response gets forgotten.

    Australia did better than even the often cited (by the left) New Zealand, because they kept covid at bay despite being an international hub (especially to China) and having several very large population centres.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 14,513
    edited May 21
    ydoethur said:

    If Case is sacked, that will mean a third CS in just four years.

    If Acland-Hood goes too, that will be the third permanent US at the DFE in three years.

    Perhaps we should stop referring to 'permanent' secretaries?

    One of the reasons CS keeps changing is that Boris has chosen a series of incompetents who won’t seriously challenge him.

    Similar problem at the BoE now.

    The British state has been hollowed out because bullshit and servility has been prized over competence in recent years.

    This is why “yesterday” is too late when it comes to a good time to get rid of Boris.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,015

    I see Shanghai back to square one, areas going back into Viagra hard lockdown.

    Omicron is so contagious that lockdowns make little difference.

    What worked was a high vaccination rate, especially among the elderly and vulnerable groups.

    This simple fact seemed to elude quite a lot of people on PB, though.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 14,513
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson will survive, he avoided wipeout in the local elections and the poll rating for the Tories is not yet devastating.

    He will have a harder time being re elected though, leftwingers on twitter predictably already saying Trump and Morrison now down and only Boris left to go. As of tomorrow when Albanese is sworn in as PM of Australia, Boris will be the only conservative leader left in the Anglosphere and G7 outside of Japan. At least until Italy votes next summer there is no prospect of that changing

    Yes.
    There doesn't seem to be much serious attention paid to this trend. You and me have mentioned it a few times over the past several months.
    Do you have a theory why?

    Edit. Why it is happening.
    Not why isn't being widely commented on.
    It’s probably just coincidence.

    Having said that, conservatism has run out of ideological steam. So maybe that’s finally catching up with conservatives.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,062
    edited May 21

    I see Shanghai back to square one, areas going back into Viagra hard lockdown.

    Omicron is so contagious that lockdowns make little difference.

    What worked was a high vaccination rate, especially among the elderly and vulnerable groups.

    This simple fact seemed to elude quite a lot of people on PB, though.
    I don't think it does on PB. The problem China has is both the vaccines.and vaccination rate, but the structure of the party is such nobody can say this zero covid declaration from the top can't work out of fear of their position as a made man.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,178

    ydoethur said:

    If Case is sacked, that will mean a third CS in just four years.

    If Acland-Hood goes too, that will be the third permanent US at the DFE in three years.

    Perhaps we should stop referring to 'permanent' secretaries?

    One of the reasons CS keeps changing is that Boris has chosen a series of incompetents who won’t seriously challenge him.

    Similar problem at the BoE now.

    The British state has been hollowed out because bullshit and servility has been prized over competence in recent years.

    This is why “yesterday” is too late when it comes to a good time to get rid of Boris.
    He's only actually appointed one so far, although it's thought he forced out Sedwill. I don't think we can call 'one' a series although I agree Case is incompetent. As is Acland-Hood.

    But then most of them seem to be incompetent at the moment.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 23,828
    “Kylian Mbappe's reported contract at PSG:

    - €300M signing bonus
    - €100M a year salary AFTER tax
    - He will help to decide the coach.
    - He will have a say on the sporting director.
    - He can approve signings and sales

    Staggering. 😳”

    https://twitter.com/sportbible/status/1528028321988104195?s=21&t=PW87_4TELUsSTJpO89gUKQ

    I don’t blame him, and in a way I don’t blame them. Mbappe is the best player of the world’s favourite sport

    However, how on earth can this be squared with Financial Fair Play? Answer: it cannot. PSG makes nothing like this kind of money


    If this passes UEFA then this is a green light to Saudi to spunk trillions on Newcastle
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,015

    I see Shanghai back to square one, areas going back into Viagra hard lockdown.

    Omicron is so contagious that lockdowns make little difference.

    What worked was a high vaccination rate, especially among the elderly and vulnerable groups.

    This simple fact seemed to elude quite a lot of people on PB, though.
    I don't think it does on PB. The problem China has is both the vaccines.and vaccination rate, but the structure of the party is such nobody can say this zero covid declaration from the top can't work out of fear of their position as a made man.
    There were quite a few people on PB demanding another lockdown for Omicron, because a new surge in infections meant We Must Do Something. And Lockdown is Something.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 22,722

    Re Australia. Amazing how quickly having a world leading Covid response gets forgotten.

    Australia did better than even the often cited (by the left) New Zealand, because they kept covid at bay despite being an international hub (especially to China) and having several very large population centres.

    Yes. However notice WA. Morrison tried to force the Labor PM to open up to the rest of Oz. And supported court action to do so.
    Result. A massive swing. And possibly enough losses to give Labor a majority.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,178

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson will survive, he avoided wipeout in the local elections and the poll rating for the Tories is not yet devastating.

    He will have a harder time being re elected though, leftwingers on twitter predictably already saying Trump and Morrison now down and only Boris left to go. As of tomorrow when Albanese is sworn in as PM of Australia, Boris will be the only conservative leader left in the Anglosphere and G7 outside of Japan. At least until Italy votes next summer there is no prospect of that changing

    Yes.
    There doesn't seem to be much serious attention paid to this trend. You and me have mentioned it a few times over the past several months.
    Do you have a theory why?

    Edit. Why it is happening.
    Not why isn't being widely commented on.
    It’s probably just coincidence.

    Having said that, conservatism has run out of ideological steam. So maybe that’s finally catching up with conservatives.
    Macdonald, on being excitedly asked if 1906 meant the death of the Unionists so Labour could replace them:

    'Don't be a fool, boy. Reaction will survive, because reaction always survives. It's the Liberals we need to replace.'

    And twenty years later he was the one who made that happen...

    Conservatism will survive in some form (indeed, arguably the most conservative leader on display with his mindless nostalgia for some 1960s utopia was Corbyn). I think rather that democratic Conservative governments mostly came to power in the aftermath of the crash and are now, in the normal course of democracy, getting rather tired.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,062
    edited May 21
    Leon said:

    “Kylian Mbappe's reported contract at PSG:

    - €300M signing bonus
    - €100M a year salary AFTER tax
    - He will help to decide the coach.
    - He will have a say on the sporting director.
    - He can approve signings and sales

    Staggering. 😳”

    https://twitter.com/sportbible/status/1528028321988104195?s=21&t=PW87_4TELUsSTJpO89gUKQ

    I don’t blame him, and in a way I don’t blame them. Mbappe is the best player of the world’s favourite sport

    However, how on earth can this be squared with Financial Fair Play? Answer: it cannot. PSG makes nothing like this kind of money


    If this passes UEFA then this is a green light to Saudi to spunk trillions on Newcastle

    I don't know where they are getting those figures. The likes of the athletic report for instance half that as a signing on fee, which is still huge, but 150m is what it would cost to sign such a player.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 23,828
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson will survive, he avoided wipeout in the local elections and the poll rating for the Tories is not yet devastating.

    He will have a harder time being re elected though, leftwingers on twitter predictably already saying Trump and Morrison now down and only Boris left to go. As of tomorrow when Albanese is sworn in as PM of Australia, Boris will be the only conservative leader left in the Anglosphere and G7 outside of Japan. At least until Italy votes next summer there is no prospect of that changing

    Yes.
    There doesn't seem to be much serious attention paid to this trend. You and me have mentioned it a few times over the past several months.
    Do you have a theory why?

    Edit. Why it is happening.
    Not why isn't being widely commented on.
    I expect post Covid the need for continued state support for businesses and families is a factor, cultural overreach by some conservatives in the culture wars ignoring climate change etc and being too aggressive on immigration and trans (even if many swing voters have concerns about them).

    As of tomorrow the West will have its greatest concentration of world leaders from the centre or liberal left since the late 1990s, when Blair, Schroder, Clinton, Clark, Chretien, Prodi and D'Alema and Jospin as French PM were in power (with Chirac as conservative President still).

    Then Howard in Australia and Aznar in Spain defied the trend, now Spain and Australia also have centre left PMs with Boris left alone amongst the Scholz, Biden, Ardern, Trudeau, Conte, Macron, Sanchez and Albanese crowd of the liberal left
    But Macron is not of the left. I’d say he is centre at most, more like centre-Right. He was just opposed by the Hard Right so he appeared “Left”

    That’s if these definitions have any utility remaining, which is doubtful in itself

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 22,722
    Leon said:

    “Kylian Mbappe's reported contract at PSG:

    - €300M signing bonus
    - €100M a year salary AFTER tax
    - He will help to decide the coach.
    - He will have a say on the sporting director.
    - He can approve signings and sales

    Staggering. 😳”

    https://twitter.com/sportbible/status/1528028321988104195?s=21&t=PW87_4TELUsSTJpO89gUKQ

    I don’t blame him, and in a way I don’t blame them. Mbappe is the best player of the world’s favourite sport

    However, how on earth can this be squared with Financial Fair Play? Answer: it cannot. PSG makes nothing like this kind of money


    If this passes UEFA then this is a green light to Saudi to spunk trillions on Newcastle

    FFP is a Super League by other means.
    If the Saudis want to spend billions on NUFC let them.
    Protectionism of the Big Six isn't in anyone's interests but their own.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,062
    dixiedean said:

    Re Australia. Amazing how quickly having a world leading Covid response gets forgotten.

    Australia did better than even the often cited (by the left) New Zealand, because they kept covid at bay despite being an international hub (especially to China) and having several very large population centres.

    Yes. However notice WA. Morrison tried to force the Labor PM to open up to the rest of Oz. And supported court action to do so.
    Result. A massive swing. And possibly enough losses to give Labor a majority.
    The thing is, generally they got the calls right, both the lockdown phase, but also moving to living with it at the right time.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,315
    Monkeypox. Anyone know anything about it?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,062
    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    “Kylian Mbappe's reported contract at PSG:

    - €300M signing bonus
    - €100M a year salary AFTER tax
    - He will help to decide the coach.
    - He will have a say on the sporting director.
    - He can approve signings and sales

    Staggering. 😳”

    https://twitter.com/sportbible/status/1528028321988104195?s=21&t=PW87_4TELUsSTJpO89gUKQ

    I don’t blame him, and in a way I don’t blame them. Mbappe is the best player of the world’s favourite sport

    However, how on earth can this be squared with Financial Fair Play? Answer: it cannot. PSG makes nothing like this kind of money


    If this passes UEFA then this is a green light to Saudi to spunk trillions on Newcastle

    FFP is a Super League by other means.
    If the Saudis want to spend billions on NUFC let them.
    Protectionism of the Big Six isn't in anyone's interests but their own.
    The new champions league structure is in many ways worse than the Super League idea.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,062
    edited May 21
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson will survive, he avoided wipeout in the local elections and the poll rating for the Tories is not yet devastating.

    He will have a harder time being re elected though, leftwingers on twitter predictably already saying Trump and Morrison now down and only Boris left to go. As of tomorrow when Albanese is sworn in as PM of Australia, Boris will be the only conservative leader left in the Anglosphere and G7 outside of Japan. At least until Italy votes next summer there is no prospect of that changing

    Yes.
    There doesn't seem to be much serious attention paid to this trend. You and me have mentioned it a few times over the past several months.
    Do you have a theory why?

    Edit. Why it is happening.
    Not why isn't being widely commented on.
    I expect post Covid the need for continued state support for businesses and families is a factor, cultural overreach by some conservatives in the culture wars ignoring climate change etc and being too aggressive on immigration and trans (even if many swing voters have concerns about them).

    As of tomorrow the West will have its greatest concentration of world leaders from the centre or liberal left since the late 1990s, when Blair, Schroder, Clinton, Clark, Chretien, Prodi and D'Alema and Jospin as French PM were in power (with Chirac as conservative President still).

    Then Howard in Australia and Aznar in Spain defied the trend, now Spain and Australia also have centre left PMs with Boris left alone amongst the Scholz, Biden, Ardern, Trudeau, Conte, Macron, Sanchez and Albanese crowd of the liberal left
    But Macron is not of the left. I’d say he is centre at most, more like centre-Right. He was just opposed by the Hard Right so he appeared “Left”

    That’s if these definitions have any utility remaining, which is doubtful in itself

    The hard right candiate wasn't even hard right economically, loads of leftie proposals, where as Macron wants to reduce employee rights, making things more business friendly, things you typically would think a Tory government would enact.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 23,828
    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    “Kylian Mbappe's reported contract at PSG:

    - €300M signing bonus
    - €100M a year salary AFTER tax
    - He will help to decide the coach.
    - He will have a say on the sporting director.
    - He can approve signings and sales

    Staggering. 😳”

    https://twitter.com/sportbible/status/1528028321988104195?s=21&t=PW87_4TELUsSTJpO89gUKQ

    I don’t blame him, and in a way I don’t blame them. Mbappe is the best player of the world’s favourite sport

    However, how on earth can this be squared with Financial Fair Play? Answer: it cannot. PSG makes nothing like this kind of money


    If this passes UEFA then this is a green light to Saudi to spunk trillions on Newcastle

    FFP is a Super League by other means.
    If the Saudis want to spend billions on NUFC let them.
    Protectionism of the Big Six isn't in anyone's interests but their own.
    I entirely agree. If UEFA let this go, then they obviously agree, too

    Football has already sold its soul. They might as well get the best price possible



  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 100,923
    edited May 21
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson will survive, he avoided wipeout in the local elections and the poll rating for the Tories is not yet devastating.

    He will have a harder time being re elected though, leftwingers on twitter predictably already saying Trump and Morrison now down and only Boris left to go. As of tomorrow when Albanese is sworn in as PM of Australia, Boris will be the only conservative leader left in the Anglosphere and G7 outside of Japan. At least until Italy votes next summer there is no prospect of that changing

    Yes.
    There doesn't seem to be much serious attention paid to this trend. You and me have mentioned it a few times over the past several months.
    Do you have a theory why?

    Edit. Why it is happening.
    Not why isn't being widely commented on.
    I expect post Covid the need for continued state support for businesses and families is a factor, cultural overreach by some conservatives in the culture wars ignoring climate change etc and being too aggressive on immigration and trans (even if many swing voters have concerns about them).

    As of tomorrow the West will have its greatest concentration of world leaders from the centre or liberal left since the late 1990s, when Blair, Schroder, Clinton, Clark, Chretien, Prodi and D'Alema and Jospin as French PM were in power (with Chirac as conservative President still).

    Then Howard in Australia and Aznar in Spain defied the trend, now Spain and Australia also have centre left PMs with Boris left alone amongst the Scholz, Biden, Ardern, Trudeau, Conte, Macron, Sanchez and Albanese crowd of the liberal left
    But Macron is not of the left. I’d say he is centre at most, more like centre-Right. He was just opposed by the Hard Right so he appeared “Left”

    That’s if these definitions have any utility remaining, which is doubtful in itself

    Macron was finance minister in Hollande's socialist government and while he may not be a socialist himself, Melenchon is the left's flag bearer in France now in the Presidential and upcoming legislative elections, Macron certainly is no conservative either but a centrist liberal.

    As you say he was the opponent of the Nationalist right Zemmour and Le Pen and the conservative Pecresse too.

    There is no doubt though there seems to be a surge away from conservatives in western elections at present and Boris will do well to defy it again in 2024
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 7,449

    I see Shanghai back to square one, areas going back into Viagra hard lockdown.

    Omicron is so contagious that lockdowns make little difference.

    What worked was a high vaccination rate, especially among the elderly and vulnerable groups.

    This simple fact seemed to elude quite a lot of people on PB, though.
    Which countries have had lockdowns during Omicron?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 23,828

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson will survive, he avoided wipeout in the local elections and the poll rating for the Tories is not yet devastating.

    He will have a harder time being re elected though, leftwingers on twitter predictably already saying Trump and Morrison now down and only Boris left to go. As of tomorrow when Albanese is sworn in as PM of Australia, Boris will be the only conservative leader left in the Anglosphere and G7 outside of Japan. At least until Italy votes next summer there is no prospect of that changing

    Yes.
    There doesn't seem to be much serious attention paid to this trend. You and me have mentioned it a few times over the past several months.
    Do you have a theory why?

    Edit. Why it is happening.
    Not why isn't being widely commented on.
    I expect post Covid the need for continued state support for businesses and families is a factor, cultural overreach by some conservatives in the culture wars ignoring climate change etc and being too aggressive on immigration and trans (even if many swing voters have concerns about them).

    As of tomorrow the West will have its greatest concentration of world leaders from the centre or liberal left since the late 1990s, when Blair, Schroder, Clinton, Clark, Chretien, Prodi and D'Alema and Jospin as French PM were in power (with Chirac as conservative President still).

    Then Howard in Australia and Aznar in Spain defied the trend, now Spain and Australia also have centre left PMs with Boris left alone amongst the Scholz, Biden, Ardern, Trudeau, Conte, Macron, Sanchez and Albanese crowd of the liberal left
    But Macron is not of the left. I’d say he is centre at most, more like centre-Right. He was just opposed by the Hard Right so he appeared “Left”

    That’s if these definitions have any utility remaining, which is doubtful in itself

    The hard right candiate wasn't even hard right economically.
    Yes. The definitions Left and Right are now useless, bordering on counter-productive

    Is Xi Jinping Left or Right? Putin? Modi? Macron? Tax n Spend Boris?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 22,722
    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson will survive, he avoided wipeout in the local elections and the poll rating for the Tories is not yet devastating.

    He will have a harder time being re elected though, leftwingers on twitter predictably already saying Trump and Morrison now down and only Boris left to go. As of tomorrow when Albanese is sworn in as PM of Australia, Boris will be the only conservative leader left in the Anglosphere and G7 outside of Japan. At least until Italy votes next summer there is no prospect of that changing

    Yes.
    There doesn't seem to be much serious attention paid to this trend. You and me have mentioned it a few times over the past several months.
    Do you have a theory why?

    Edit. Why it is happening.
    Not why isn't being widely commented on.
    It’s probably just coincidence.

    Having said that, conservatism has run out of ideological steam. So maybe that’s finally catching up with conservatives.
    Macdonald, on being excitedly asked if 1906 meant the death of the Unionists so Labour could replace them:

    'Don't be a fool, boy. Reaction will survive, because reaction always survives. It's the Liberals we need to replace.'

    And twenty years later he was the one who made that happen...

    Conservatism will survive in some form (indeed, arguably the most conservative leader on display with his mindless nostalgia for some 1960s utopia was Corbyn). I think rather that democratic Conservative governments mostly came to power in the aftermath of the crash and are now, in the normal course of democracy, getting rather tired.
    Yes.
    That's kinda my thoughts. The GFC saw right leaning governments come to power. Or get entrenched. And their solutions haven't worked. Might as well let the others try. Not that they have any solutions either.
    I also think Culture War can be overdone too. Folk tend to forget how much energy the dying days of Major expended on it.
    And yet. Incumbent governments of the Centre left get re-elected in Canada and France.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,315
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson will survive, he avoided wipeout in the local elections and the poll rating for the Tories is not yet devastating.

    He will have a harder time being re elected though, leftwingers on twitter predictably already saying Trump and Morrison now down and only Boris left to go. As of tomorrow when Albanese is sworn in as PM of Australia, Boris will be the only conservative leader left in the Anglosphere and G7 outside of Japan. At least until Italy votes next summer there is no prospect of that changing

    Yes.
    There doesn't seem to be much serious attention paid to this trend. You and me have mentioned it a few times over the past several months.
    Do you have a theory why?

    Edit. Why it is happening.
    Not why isn't being widely commented on.
    I expect post Covid the need for continued state support for businesses and families is a factor, cultural overreach by some conservatives in the culture wars ignoring climate change etc and being too aggressive on immigration and trans (even if many swing voters have concerns about them).

    As of tomorrow the West will have its greatest concentration of world leaders from the centre or liberal left since the late 1990s, when Blair, Schroder, Clinton, Clark, Chretien, Prodi and D'Alema and Jospin as French PM were in power (with Chirac as conservative President still).

    Then Howard in Australia and Aznar in Spain defied the trend, now Spain and Australia also have centre left PMs with Boris left alone amongst the Scholz, Biden, Ardern, Trudeau, Conte, Macron, Sanchez and Albanese crowd of the liberal left
    I think you're reading far too much into the Australian result. It was probably just that people were fed up with the Liberal coalition after 9 years in power.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 22,722

    dixiedean said:

    Re Australia. Amazing how quickly having a world leading Covid response gets forgotten.

    Australia did better than even the often cited (by the left) New Zealand, because they kept covid at bay despite being an international hub (especially to China) and having several very large population centres.

    Yes. However notice WA. Morrison tried to force the Labor PM to open up to the rest of Oz. And supported court action to do so.
    Result. A massive swing. And possibly enough losses to give Labor a majority.
    The thing is, generally they got the calls right, both the lockdown phase, but also moving to living with it at the right time.
    Folk don't want to think about it.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 8,731
    Andy_JS said:

    Monkeypox. Anyone know anything about it?

    Try this thread and links therein-

    https://twitter.com/mugecevik/status/1528029335734697984

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 46,234

    I see Shanghai back to square one, areas going back into Viagra hard lockdown.

    Omicron is so contagious that lockdowns make little difference.

    What worked was a high vaccination rate, especially among the elderly and vulnerable groups.

    This simple fact seemed to elude quite a lot of people on PB, though.
    I don't think it does on PB. The problem China has is both the vaccines.and vaccination rate, but the structure of the party is such nobody can say this zero covid declaration from the top can't work out of fear of their position as a made man.
    What's insane is that the Pfizer vaccine is both manufactured in China and is massively more effective than local vaccine. Yet it is not approved there. (But is in Hong Kong.)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,062
    edited May 21
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Re Australia. Amazing how quickly having a world leading Covid response gets forgotten.

    Australia did better than even the often cited (by the left) New Zealand, because they kept covid at bay despite being an international hub (especially to China) and having several very large population centres.

    Yes. However notice WA. Morrison tried to force the Labor PM to open up to the rest of Oz. And supported court action to do so.
    Result. A massive swing. And possibly enough losses to give Labor a majority.
    The thing is, generally they got the calls right, both the lockdown phase, but also moving to living with it at the right time.
    Folk don't want to think about it.
    Just thought it was interesting. I know many more factors going on in Australia.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 7,449
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson will survive, he avoided wipeout in the local elections and the poll rating for the Tories is not yet devastating.

    He will have a harder time being re elected though, leftwingers on twitter predictably already saying Trump and Morrison now down and only Boris left to go. As of tomorrow when Albanese is sworn in as PM of Australia, Boris will be the only conservative leader left in the Anglosphere and G7 outside of Japan. At least until Italy votes next summer there is no prospect of that changing

    Yes.
    There doesn't seem to be much serious attention paid to this trend. You and me have mentioned it a few times over the past several months.
    Do you have a theory why?

    Edit. Why it is happening.
    Not why isn't being widely commented on.
    I expect post Covid the need for continued state support for businesses and families is a factor, cultural overreach by some conservatives in the culture wars ignoring climate change etc and being too aggressive on immigration and trans (even if many swing voters have concerns about them).

    As of tomorrow the West will have its greatest concentration of world leaders from the centre or liberal left since the late 1990s, when Blair, Schroder, Clinton, Clark, Chretien, Prodi and D'Alema and Jospin as French PM were in power (with Chirac as conservative President still).

    Then Howard in Australia and Aznar in Spain defied the trend, now Spain and Australia also have centre left PMs with Boris left alone amongst the Scholz, Biden, Ardern, Trudeau, Conte, Macron, Sanchez and Albanese crowd of the liberal left
    But Macron is not of the left. I’d say he is centre at most, more like centre-Right. He was just opposed by the Hard Right so he appeared “Left”

    That’s if these definitions have any utility remaining, which is doubtful in itself

    The hard right candiate wasn't even hard right economically.
    Yes. The definitions Left and Right are now useless, bordering on counter-productive

    Is Xi Jinping Left or Right? Putin? Modi? Macron? Tax n Spend Boris?
    You were going on about lefty elites yesterday, and last week. And the week before that.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 22,722
    If not left and right then.
    Mainstream Conservatism has had a shocking run of results lately.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,015
    rcs1000 said:

    I see Shanghai back to square one, areas going back into Viagra hard lockdown.

    Omicron is so contagious that lockdowns make little difference.

    What worked was a high vaccination rate, especially among the elderly and vulnerable groups.

    This simple fact seemed to elude quite a lot of people on PB, though.
    I don't think it does on PB. The problem China has is both the vaccines.and vaccination rate, but the structure of the party is such nobody can say this zero covid declaration from the top can't work out of fear of their position as a made man.
    What's insane is that the Pfizer vaccine is both manufactured in China and is massively more effective than local vaccine. Yet it is not approved there. (But is in Hong Kong.)
    You expect rational decision making from Xi and the Chinese system?

    Why?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,062
    edited May 21
    rcs1000 said:

    I see Shanghai back to square one, areas going back into Viagra hard lockdown.

    Omicron is so contagious that lockdowns make little difference.

    What worked was a high vaccination rate, especially among the elderly and vulnerable groups.

    This simple fact seemed to elude quite a lot of people on PB, though.
    I don't think it does on PB. The problem China has is both the vaccines.and vaccination rate, but the structure of the party is such nobody can say this zero covid declaration from the top can't work out of fear of their position as a made man.
    What's insane is that the Pfizer vaccine is both manufactured in China and is massively more effective than local vaccine. Yet it is not approved there. (But is in Hong Kong.)
    I remember reading that even in Hong Kong people offered it are refusing it in preference to Chinese ones with very high rates.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 447
    From Previous Thread: May I recommend to anyone interested in the environment, Michael Shellenberger's "Appocalyse Never: Why Environmental Alarmism Hurts Us All". Perhaps the most interesting chapter, for me, is number 10, where he describes how prominent politicians, with financial interests in fossil fuels, have worked to block nuclear power.

    And there is a betting opportunity, if you don't mind very long odds. Shellenberger is running for governor of California, as an independent: https://www.shellenbergerforgovernor.com/

    They could do worse, and they almost certainly will.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,015
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson will survive, he avoided wipeout in the local elections and the poll rating for the Tories is not yet devastating.

    He will have a harder time being re elected though, leftwingers on twitter predictably already saying Trump and Morrison now down and only Boris left to go. As of tomorrow when Albanese is sworn in as PM of Australia, Boris will be the only conservative leader left in the Anglosphere and G7 outside of Japan. At least until Italy votes next summer there is no prospect of that changing

    Yes.
    There doesn't seem to be much serious attention paid to this trend. You and me have mentioned it a few times over the past several months.
    Do you have a theory why?

    Edit. Why it is happening.
    Not why isn't being widely commented on.
    I expect post Covid the need for continued state support for businesses and families is a factor, cultural overreach by some conservatives in the culture wars ignoring climate change etc and being too aggressive on immigration and trans (even if many swing voters have concerns about them).

    As of tomorrow the West will have its greatest concentration of world leaders from the centre or liberal left since the late 1990s, when Blair, Schroder, Clinton, Clark, Chretien, Prodi and D'Alema and Jospin as French PM were in power (with Chirac as conservative President still).

    Then Howard in Australia and Aznar in Spain defied the trend, now Spain and Australia also have centre left PMs with Boris left alone amongst the Scholz, Biden, Ardern, Trudeau, Conte, Macron, Sanchez and Albanese crowd of the liberal left
    I think you're reading far too much into the Australian result. It was probably just that people were fed up with the Liberal coalition after 9 years in power.
    The hardline anti-Global Warming stuff is becoming untenable in Australia - the climate is literally changing. Visibly.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 100,923
    edited May 21
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson will survive, he avoided wipeout in the local elections and the poll rating for the Tories is not yet devastating.

    He will have a harder time being re elected though, leftwingers on twitter predictably already saying Trump and Morrison now down and only Boris left to go. As of tomorrow when Albanese is sworn in as PM of Australia, Boris will be the only conservative leader left in the Anglosphere and G7 outside of Japan. At least until Italy votes next summer there is no prospect of that changing

    Yes.
    There doesn't seem to be much serious attention paid to this trend. You and me have mentioned it a few times over the past several months.
    Do you have a theory why?

    Edit. Why it is happening.
    Not why isn't being widely commented on.
    I expect post Covid the need for continued state support for businesses and families is a factor, cultural overreach by some conservatives in the culture wars ignoring climate change etc and being too aggressive on immigration and trans (even if many swing voters have concerns about them).

    As of tomorrow the West will have its greatest concentration of world leaders from the centre or liberal left since the late 1990s, when Blair, Schroder, Clinton, Clark, Chretien, Prodi and D'Alema and Jospin as French PM were in power (with Chirac as conservative President still).

    Then Howard in Australia and Aznar in Spain defied the trend, now Spain and Australia also have centre left PMs with Boris left alone amongst the Scholz, Biden, Ardern, Trudeau, Conte, Macron, Sanchez and Albanese crowd of the liberal left
    But Macron is not of the left. I’d say he is centre at most, more like centre-Right. He was just opposed by the Hard Right so he appeared “Left”

    That’s if these definitions have any utility remaining, which is doubtful in itself

    The hard right candiate wasn't even hard right economically.
    Yes. The definitions Left and Right are now useless, bordering on counter-productive

    Is Xi Jinping Left or Right? Putin? Modi? Macron? Tax n Spend Boris?
    Most major western democracies still have a main party of the conservative centre right and the centre left. In all those nations which do outside of the UK the centre left are now in power in Germany, Italy, Spain, Australia, Canada (whose Liberal party is basically centre left) etc. You can also add smaller nations like New Zealand and Sweden and Denmark and Portugal etc, with Greece the only other exception with a conservative government and at a push Ireland and Israel.

    The major exceptions in not having 2 main conservative centre right and centre left parties are the US and France, which have a centrist liberal party and a Nationalist right party as their 2 main parties now and in both those nations it is also the liberals in power not the Nationalists (in France the conservatives were near wiped out in the Presidential election and face heavy losses in the legislative elections and the establishment conservatives in the GOP have also been near eliminated by Trumpite Nationalists). The Netherlands has a liberal government too.

    Xi is left and on the Marxist wing of the Chinese Communist Party with some Nationalism thrown in, Modi is a conservative Nationalist as is Putin and Bolsonaro in Brazil so conservative Nationalism is doing better in the developing world albeit Bolsonaro may lose to Lula later in the year
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 22,722
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson will survive, he avoided wipeout in the local elections and the poll rating for the Tories is not yet devastating.

    He will have a harder time being re elected though, leftwingers on twitter predictably already saying Trump and Morrison now down and only Boris left to go. As of tomorrow when Albanese is sworn in as PM of Australia, Boris will be the only conservative leader left in the Anglosphere and G7 outside of Japan. At least until Italy votes next summer there is no prospect of that changing

    Yes.
    There doesn't seem to be much serious attention paid to this trend. You and me have mentioned it a few times over the past several months.
    Do you have a theory why?

    Edit. Why it is happening.
    Not why isn't being widely commented on.
    I expect post Covid the need for continued state support for businesses and families is a factor, cultural overreach by some conservatives in the culture wars ignoring climate change etc and being too aggressive on immigration and trans (even if many swing voters have concerns about them).

    As of tomorrow the West will have its greatest concentration of world leaders from the centre or liberal left since the late 1990s, when Blair, Schroder, Clinton, Clark, Chretien, Prodi and D'Alema and Jospin as French PM were in power (with Chirac as conservative President still).

    Then Howard in Australia and Aznar in Spain defied the trend, now Spain and Australia also have centre left PMs with Boris left alone amongst the Scholz, Biden, Ardern, Trudeau, Conte, Macron, Sanchez and Albanese crowd of the liberal left
    I think you're reading far too much into the Australian result. It was probably just that people were fed up with the Liberal coalition after 9 years in power.
    But it isn't one result. It's a trend, like it or not.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 23,828
    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson will survive, he avoided wipeout in the local elections and the poll rating for the Tories is not yet devastating.

    He will have a harder time being re elected though, leftwingers on twitter predictably already saying Trump and Morrison now down and only Boris left to go. As of tomorrow when Albanese is sworn in as PM of Australia, Boris will be the only conservative leader left in the Anglosphere and G7 outside of Japan. At least until Italy votes next summer there is no prospect of that changing

    Yes.
    There doesn't seem to be much serious attention paid to this trend. You and me have mentioned it a few times over the past several months.
    Do you have a theory why?

    Edit. Why it is happening.
    Not why isn't being widely commented on.
    I expect post Covid the need for continued state support for businesses and families is a factor, cultural overreach by some conservatives in the culture wars ignoring climate change etc and being too aggressive on immigration and trans (even if many swing voters have concerns about them).

    As of tomorrow the West will have its greatest concentration of world leaders from the centre or liberal left since the late 1990s, when Blair, Schroder, Clinton, Clark, Chretien, Prodi and D'Alema and Jospin as French PM were in power (with Chirac as conservative President still).

    Then Howard in Australia and Aznar in Spain defied the trend, now Spain and Australia also have centre left PMs with Boris left alone amongst the Scholz, Biden, Ardern, Trudeau, Conte, Macron, Sanchez and Albanese crowd of the liberal left
    But Macron is not of the left. I’d say he is centre at most, more like centre-Right. He was just opposed by the Hard Right so he appeared “Left”

    That’s if these definitions have any utility remaining, which is doubtful in itself

    The hard right candiate wasn't even hard right economically.
    Yes. The definitions Left and Right are now useless, bordering on counter-productive

    Is Xi Jinping Left or Right? Putin? Modi? Macron? Tax n Spend Boris?
    You were going on about lefty elites yesterday, and last week. And the week before that.
    Fair point

    By lefty I generally mean self-identified Woke Progressives, these days. Their economic beliefs are almost irrelevant

    Increasingly, Woke v The Rest is a more useful demarcation, at least in the Anglosphere, than Left v Right
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 17,417
    Andy_JS said:

    Monkeypox. Anyone know anything about it?

    If it doesn't clear up within a couple of days, consult your GP.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 22,722

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson will survive, he avoided wipeout in the local elections and the poll rating for the Tories is not yet devastating.

    He will have a harder time being re elected though, leftwingers on twitter predictably already saying Trump and Morrison now down and only Boris left to go. As of tomorrow when Albanese is sworn in as PM of Australia, Boris will be the only conservative leader left in the Anglosphere and G7 outside of Japan. At least until Italy votes next summer there is no prospect of that changing

    Yes.
    There doesn't seem to be much serious attention paid to this trend. You and me have mentioned it a few times over the past several months.
    Do you have a theory why?

    Edit. Why it is happening.
    Not why isn't being widely commented on.
    I expect post Covid the need for continued state support for businesses and families is a factor, cultural overreach by some conservatives in the culture wars ignoring climate change etc and being too aggressive on immigration and trans (even if many swing voters have concerns about them).

    As of tomorrow the West will have its greatest concentration of world leaders from the centre or liberal left since the late 1990s, when Blair, Schroder, Clinton, Clark, Chretien, Prodi and D'Alema and Jospin as French PM were in power (with Chirac as conservative President still).

    Then Howard in Australia and Aznar in Spain defied the trend, now Spain and Australia also have centre left PMs with Boris left alone amongst the Scholz, Biden, Ardern, Trudeau, Conte, Macron, Sanchez and Albanese crowd of the liberal left
    I think you're reading far too much into the Australian result. It was probably just that people were fed up with the Liberal coalition after 9 years in power.
    The hardline anti-Global Warming stuff is becoming untenable in Australia - the climate is literally changing. Visibly.
    Particularly when it is on fire.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,015
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson will survive, he avoided wipeout in the local elections and the poll rating for the Tories is not yet devastating.

    He will have a harder time being re elected though, leftwingers on twitter predictably already saying Trump and Morrison now down and only Boris left to go. As of tomorrow when Albanese is sworn in as PM of Australia, Boris will be the only conservative leader left in the Anglosphere and G7 outside of Japan. At least until Italy votes next summer there is no prospect of that changing

    Yes.
    There doesn't seem to be much serious attention paid to this trend. You and me have mentioned it a few times over the past several months.
    Do you have a theory why?

    Edit. Why it is happening.
    Not why isn't being widely commented on.
    I expect post Covid the need for continued state support for businesses and families is a factor, cultural overreach by some conservatives in the culture wars ignoring climate change etc and being too aggressive on immigration and trans (even if many swing voters have concerns about them).

    As of tomorrow the West will have its greatest concentration of world leaders from the centre or liberal left since the late 1990s, when Blair, Schroder, Clinton, Clark, Chretien, Prodi and D'Alema and Jospin as French PM were in power (with Chirac as conservative President still).

    Then Howard in Australia and Aznar in Spain defied the trend, now Spain and Australia also have centre left PMs with Boris left alone amongst the Scholz, Biden, Ardern, Trudeau, Conte, Macron, Sanchez and Albanese crowd of the liberal left
    I think you're reading far too much into the Australian result. It was probably just that people were fed up with the Liberal coalition after 9 years in power.
    But it isn't one result. It's a trend, like it or not.
    It's also worth considering that in most Western countries the main parties of the Left are, economically much to the Right of where they would have been in 198x.

    Which is what gets the Corbynistas so upset.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 77,088
    edited May 21

    Australian 2022 general election result > handwriting on the wall for Boris & "true" Tories?

    Mene mene tekel upharsin

    Election results overseas do not mean anything for other countries, or at most very little.

    The writing may be on the wall for him, but that won't be a sign of it. It's fun to read too much into different elections with different issues and histories, but fun is all it is.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 7,449
    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson will survive, he avoided wipeout in the local elections and the poll rating for the Tories is not yet devastating.

    He will have a harder time being re elected though, leftwingers on twitter predictably already saying Trump and Morrison now down and only Boris left to go. As of tomorrow when Albanese is sworn in as PM of Australia, Boris will be the only conservative leader left in the Anglosphere and G7 outside of Japan. At least until Italy votes next summer there is no prospect of that changing

    Yes.
    There doesn't seem to be much serious attention paid to this trend. You and me have mentioned it a few times over the past several months.
    Do you have a theory why?

    Edit. Why it is happening.
    Not why isn't being widely commented on.
    I expect post Covid the need for continued state support for businesses and families is a factor, cultural overreach by some conservatives in the culture wars ignoring climate change etc and being too aggressive on immigration and trans (even if many swing voters have concerns about them).

    As of tomorrow the West will have its greatest concentration of world leaders from the centre or liberal left since the late 1990s, when Blair, Schroder, Clinton, Clark, Chretien, Prodi and D'Alema and Jospin as French PM were in power (with Chirac as conservative President still).

    Then Howard in Australia and Aznar in Spain defied the trend, now Spain and Australia also have centre left PMs with Boris left alone amongst the Scholz, Biden, Ardern, Trudeau, Conte, Macron, Sanchez and Albanese crowd of the liberal left
    But Macron is not of the left. I’d say he is centre at most, more like centre-Right. He was just opposed by the Hard Right so he appeared “Left”

    That’s if these definitions have any utility remaining, which is doubtful in itself

    The hard right candiate wasn't even hard right economically.
    Yes. The definitions Left and Right are now useless, bordering on counter-productive

    Is Xi Jinping Left or Right? Putin? Modi? Macron? Tax n Spend Boris?
    You were going on about lefty elites yesterday, and last week. And the week before that.
    Fair point

    By lefty I generally mean self-identified Woke Progressives, these days. Their economic beliefs are almost irrelevant

    Increasingly, Woke v The Rest is a more useful demarcation, at least in the Anglosphere, than Left v Right
    I would split it into three camps. Woke, normal, and bigots.
    There's no way you're getting away putting people who are openly bigoted in the same category as people who don't tend to think about these things at all and are not on the foam flecked extreme in either direction.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 24,114

    Andy_JS said:

    Monkeypox. Anyone know anything about it?

    Try this thread and links therein-

    https://twitter.com/mugecevik/status/1528029335734697984

    That's rather interesting.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 77,088
    Leon said:

    “Kylian Mbappe's reported contract at PSG:

    - €300M signing bonus
    - €100M a year salary AFTER tax
    - He will help to decide the coach.
    - He will have a say on the sporting director.
    - He can approve signings and sales

    Staggering. 😳”

    Money aside, no player is so good for a team they should be catered to so much.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 100,923

    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson will survive, he avoided wipeout in the local elections and the poll rating for the Tories is not yet devastating.

    He will have a harder time being re elected though, leftwingers on twitter predictably already saying Trump and Morrison now down and only Boris left to go. As of tomorrow when Albanese is sworn in as PM of Australia, Boris will be the only conservative leader left in the Anglosphere and G7 outside of Japan. At least until Italy votes next summer there is no prospect of that changing

    Yes.
    There doesn't seem to be much serious attention paid to this trend. You and me have mentioned it a few times over the past several months.
    Do you have a theory why?

    Edit. Why it is happening.
    Not why isn't being widely commented on.
    I expect post Covid the need for continued state support for businesses and families is a factor, cultural overreach by some conservatives in the culture wars ignoring climate change etc and being too aggressive on immigration and trans (even if many swing voters have concerns about them).

    As of tomorrow the West will have its greatest concentration of world leaders from the centre or liberal left since the late 1990s, when Blair, Schroder, Clinton, Clark, Chretien, Prodi and D'Alema and Jospin as French PM were in power (with Chirac as conservative President still).

    Then Howard in Australia and Aznar in Spain defied the trend, now Spain and Australia also have centre left PMs with Boris left alone amongst the Scholz, Biden, Ardern, Trudeau, Conte, Macron, Sanchez and Albanese crowd of the liberal left
    I think you're reading far too much into the Australian result. It was probably just that people were fed up with the Liberal coalition after 9 years in power.
    But it isn't one result. It's a trend, like it or not.
    It's also worth considering that in most Western countries the main parties of the Left are, economically much to the Right of where they would have been in 198x.

    Which is what gets the Corbynistas so upset.
    Some not all, Albanese for example will be the most leftwing Labor PM since Whitlam in the 1970s, he is certainly left of Hawke and Keating
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 22,722
    Has only just sunk in I witnessed an attempted murder on Wednesday.
    Am only just realising how many little ways it has affected me.
    The first person I told face-to-face asked me when it happened?
    I thought. And thought. And said some time at the weekend. This was on Thursday afternoon.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 7,449
    kle4 said:

    Australian 2022 general election result > handwriting on the wall for Boris & "true" Tories?

    Mene mene tekel upharsin

    Election results overseas do not mean anything for other countries, ot at most very little.

    The writing may be on the wall for him, but that won't be a sign of it. It's fun to read too much into different elections with different issues and histories, but fun is all it is.
    Wise words. I find it intensely strange that people are so invested in the left/right doing well in a country they have little or nothing to do with. The way some people on here despise Trudeau or Morrison is a little daft considering only a few seem to have any ties at all with those countries.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 23,828
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson will survive, he avoided wipeout in the local elections and the poll rating for the Tories is not yet devastating.

    He will have a harder time being re elected though, leftwingers on twitter predictably already saying Trump and Morrison now down and only Boris left to go. As of tomorrow when Albanese is sworn in as PM of Australia, Boris will be the only conservative leader left in the Anglosphere and G7 outside of Japan. At least until Italy votes next summer there is no prospect of that changing

    Yes.
    There doesn't seem to be much serious attention paid to this trend. You and me have mentioned it a few times over the past several months.
    Do you have a theory why?

    Edit. Why it is happening.
    Not why isn't being widely commented on.
    I expect post Covid the need for continued state support for businesses and families is a factor, cultural overreach by some conservatives in the culture wars ignoring climate change etc and being too aggressive on immigration and trans (even if many swing voters have concerns about them).

    As of tomorrow the West will have its greatest concentration of world leaders from the centre or liberal left since the late 1990s, when Blair, Schroder, Clinton, Clark, Chretien, Prodi and D'Alema and Jospin as French PM were in power (with Chirac as conservative President still).

    Then Howard in Australia and Aznar in Spain defied the trend, now Spain and Australia also have centre left PMs with Boris left alone amongst the Scholz, Biden, Ardern, Trudeau, Conte, Macron, Sanchez and Albanese crowd of the liberal left
    But Macron is not of the left. I’d say he is centre at most, more like centre-Right. He was just opposed by the Hard Right so he appeared “Left”

    That’s if these definitions have any utility remaining, which is doubtful in itself

    The hard right candiate wasn't even hard right economically.
    Yes. The definitions Left and Right are now useless, bordering on counter-productive

    Is Xi Jinping Left or Right? Putin? Modi? Macron? Tax n Spend Boris?
    Most major western democracies still have a main party of the conservative centre right and the centre left. In all those nations which do outside of the UK the centre left are now in power in Germany, Italy, Spain, Australia, Canada (whose Liberal party is basically centre left) etc. You can also add smaller nations like New Zealand and Sweden and Denmark and Portugal etc, with Greece the only other exception with a conservative government.

    The major exceptions in not having 2 main conservative centre right and centre left parties are the US and France, which have a centrist liberal party and a Nationalist right party as their 2 main parties now and in both those nations it is also the liberals in power not the Nationalists (in France the conservatives were near wiped out in the Presidential election and face heavy losses in the legislative elections and the establishment conservatives in the GOP have also been near eliminated by Trumpite Nationalists).

    Xi is left and on the Marxist wing of the Chinese Communist Party with some Nationalism thrown in, Modi is a conservative Nationalist as is Putin and Bolsonaro in Brazil so conservative Nationalism is doing better in the developing world albeit Bolsonaro may lose to Lula later in the year
    I really don’t believe Xi Jinping is on the “Left” let alone a “Marxist”

    China is one of the most ruthlessly capitalist countries on earth. Darwinianly so

    Xi Jinping’s China is Sui Generis. If I had to describe it, I would say it is State Directed Surveillance Capitalism run by Oligarchic Authoritarian ethno-Nationalists. What the fuck do you call that with one word? Dunno, but it sure doesn’t fit the glib Left Right model which is now hideously outdated (unsurprisingly, since it dates from the French Revolution)

    We Need New Words
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 24,114
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson will survive, he avoided wipeout in the local elections and the poll rating for the Tories is not yet devastating.

    He will have a harder time being re elected though, leftwingers on twitter predictably already saying Trump and Morrison now down and only Boris left to go. As of tomorrow when Albanese is sworn in as PM of Australia, Boris will be the only conservative leader left in the Anglosphere and G7 outside of Japan. At least until Italy votes next summer there is no prospect of that changing

    Yes.
    There doesn't seem to be much serious attention paid to this trend. You and me have mentioned it a few times over the past several months.
    Do you have a theory why?

    Edit. Why it is happening.
    Not why isn't being widely commented on.
    I expect post Covid the need for continued state support for businesses and families is a factor, cultural overreach by some conservatives in the culture wars ignoring climate change etc and being too aggressive on immigration and trans (even if many swing voters have concerns about them).

    As of tomorrow the West will have its greatest concentration of world leaders from the centre or liberal left since the late 1990s, when Blair, Schroder, Clinton, Clark, Chretien, Prodi and D'Alema and Jospin as French PM were in power (with Chirac as conservative President still).

    Then Howard in Australia and Aznar in Spain defied the trend, now Spain and Australia also have centre left PMs with Boris left alone amongst the Scholz, Biden, Ardern, Trudeau, Conte, Macron, Sanchez and Albanese crowd of the liberal left
    I think you're reading far too much into the Australian result. It was probably just that people were fed up with the Liberal coalition after 9 years in power.
    The hardline anti-Global Warming stuff is becoming untenable in Australia - the climate is literally changing. Visibly.
    Particularly when it is on fire.
    Australia is frightening enough in the dry season in 'normal' times. An Eucalyptus forest is a giant firelighter. Very disconcerting.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 100,923
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson will survive, he avoided wipeout in the local elections and the poll rating for the Tories is not yet devastating.

    He will have a harder time being re elected though, leftwingers on twitter predictably already saying Trump and Morrison now down and only Boris left to go. As of tomorrow when Albanese is sworn in as PM of Australia, Boris will be the only conservative leader left in the Anglosphere and G7 outside of Japan. At least until Italy votes next summer there is no prospect of that changing

    Yes.
    There doesn't seem to be much serious attention paid to this trend. You and me have mentioned it a few times over the past several months.
    Do you have a theory why?

    Edit. Why it is happening.
    Not why isn't being widely commented on.
    I expect post Covid the need for continued state support for businesses and families is a factor, cultural overreach by some conservatives in the culture wars ignoring climate change etc and being too aggressive on immigration and trans (even if many swing voters have concerns about them).

    As of tomorrow the West will have its greatest concentration of world leaders from the centre or liberal left since the late 1990s, when Blair, Schroder, Clinton, Clark, Chretien, Prodi and D'Alema and Jospin as French PM were in power (with Chirac as conservative President still).

    Then Howard in Australia and Aznar in Spain defied the trend, now Spain and Australia also have centre left PMs with Boris left alone amongst the Scholz, Biden, Ardern, Trudeau, Conte, Macron, Sanchez and Albanese crowd of the liberal left
    But Macron is not of the left. I’d say he is centre at most, more like centre-Right. He was just opposed by the Hard Right so he appeared “Left”

    That’s if these definitions have any utility remaining, which is doubtful in itself

    The hard right candiate wasn't even hard right economically.
    Yes. The definitions Left and Right are now useless, bordering on counter-productive

    Is Xi Jinping Left or Right? Putin? Modi? Macron? Tax n Spend Boris?
    Most major western democracies still have a main party of the conservative centre right and the centre left. In all those nations which do outside of the UK the centre left are now in power in Germany, Italy, Spain, Australia, Canada (whose Liberal party is basically centre left) etc. You can also add smaller nations like New Zealand and Sweden and Denmark and Portugal etc, with Greece the only other exception with a conservative government.

    The major exceptions in not having 2 main conservative centre right and centre left parties are the US and France, which have a centrist liberal party and a Nationalist right party as their 2 main parties now and in both those nations it is also the liberals in power not the Nationalists (in France the conservatives were near wiped out in the Presidential election and face heavy losses in the legislative elections and the establishment conservatives in the GOP have also been near eliminated by Trumpite Nationalists).

    Xi is left and on the Marxist wing of the Chinese Communist Party with some Nationalism thrown in, Modi is a conservative Nationalist as is Putin and Bolsonaro in Brazil so conservative Nationalism is doing better in the developing world albeit Bolsonaro may lose to Lula later in the year
    I really don’t believe Xi Jinping is on the “Left” let alone a “Marxist”

    China is one of the most ruthlessly capitalist countries on earth. Darwinianly so

    Xi Jinping’s China is Sui Generis. If I had to describe it, I would say it is State Directed Surveillance Capitalism run by Oligarchic Authoritarian ethno-Nationalists. What the fuck do you call that with one word? Dunno, but it sure doesn’t fit the glib Left Right model which is now hideously outdated (unsurprisingly, since it dates from the French Revolution)

    We Need New Words
    Is it? China has the greatest concentration of state ownership of industry in the developed world too and any billlionaire who gets on the wrong side of Beijing will find themselves jailed or shot.

    China is not Singapore or even Hong Kong as was anymore under Xi, that is clear
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 22,722
    edited May 21

    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson will survive, he avoided wipeout in the local elections and the poll rating for the Tories is not yet devastating.

    He will have a harder time being re elected though, leftwingers on twitter predictably already saying Trump and Morrison now down and only Boris left to go. As of tomorrow when Albanese is sworn in as PM of Australia, Boris will be the only conservative leader left in the Anglosphere and G7 outside of Japan. At least until Italy votes next summer there is no prospect of that changing

    Yes.
    There doesn't seem to be much serious attention paid to this trend. You and me have mentioned it a few times over the past several months.
    Do you have a theory why?

    Edit. Why it is happening.
    Not why isn't being widely commented on.
    I expect post Covid the need for continued state support for businesses and families is a factor, cultural overreach by some conservatives in the culture wars ignoring climate change etc and being too aggressive on immigration and trans (even if many swing voters have concerns about them).

    As of tomorrow the West will have its greatest concentration of world leaders from the centre or liberal left since the late 1990s, when Blair, Schroder, Clinton, Clark, Chretien, Prodi and D'Alema and Jospin as French PM were in power (with Chirac as conservative President still).

    Then Howard in Australia and Aznar in Spain defied the trend, now Spain and Australia also have centre left PMs with Boris left alone amongst the Scholz, Biden, Ardern, Trudeau, Conte, Macron, Sanchez and Albanese crowd of the liberal left
    I think you're reading far too much into the Australian result. It was probably just that people were fed up with the Liberal coalition after 9 years in power.
    But it isn't one result. It's a trend, like it or not.
    It's also worth considering that in most Western countries the main parties of the Left are, economically much to the Right of where they would have been in 198x.

    Which is what gets the Corbynistas so upset.
    Well yes. Although most mainstream Parties of the Right are heck of a lot more socially liberal.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 8,731
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson will survive, he avoided wipeout in the local elections and the poll rating for the Tories is not yet devastating.

    He will have a harder time being re elected though, leftwingers on twitter predictably already saying Trump and Morrison now down and only Boris left to go. As of tomorrow when Albanese is sworn in as PM of Australia, Boris will be the only conservative leader left in the Anglosphere and G7 outside of Japan. At least until Italy votes next summer there is no prospect of that changing

    Yes.
    There doesn't seem to be much serious attention paid to this trend. You and me have mentioned it a few times over the past several months.
    Do you have a theory why?

    Edit. Why it is happening.
    Not why isn't being widely commented on.
    I expect post Covid the need for continued state support for businesses and families is a factor, cultural overreach by some conservatives in the culture wars ignoring climate change etc and being too aggressive on immigration and trans (even if many swing voters have concerns about them).

    As of tomorrow the West will have its greatest concentration of world leaders from the centre or liberal left since the late 1990s, when Blair, Schroder, Clinton, Clark, Chretien, Prodi and D'Alema and Jospin as French PM were in power (with Chirac as conservative President still).

    Then Howard in Australia and Aznar in Spain defied the trend, now Spain and Australia also have centre left PMs with Boris left alone amongst the Scholz, Biden, Ardern, Trudeau, Conte, Macron, Sanchez and Albanese crowd of the liberal left
    I think you're reading far too much into the Australian result. It was probably just that people were fed up with the Liberal coalition after 9 years in power.
    The hardline anti-Global Warming stuff is becoming untenable in Australia - the climate is literally changing. Visibly.
    Particularly when it is on fire.
    Although that’s not been helped by changing management practices around clearing plant matter. And don’t forget that the Australian bush thrives on fire for renewal.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 23,828
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson will survive, he avoided wipeout in the local elections and the poll rating for the Tories is not yet devastating.

    He will have a harder time being re elected though, leftwingers on twitter predictably already saying Trump and Morrison now down and only Boris left to go. As of tomorrow when Albanese is sworn in as PM of Australia, Boris will be the only conservative leader left in the Anglosphere and G7 outside of Japan. At least until Italy votes next summer there is no prospect of that changing

    Yes.
    There doesn't seem to be much serious attention paid to this trend. You and me have mentioned it a few times over the past several months.
    Do you have a theory why?

    Edit. Why it is happening.
    Not why isn't being widely commented on.
    I expect post Covid the need for continued state support for businesses and families is a factor, cultural overreach by some conservatives in the culture wars ignoring climate change etc and being too aggressive on immigration and trans (even if many swing voters have concerns about them).

    As of tomorrow the West will have its greatest concentration of world leaders from the centre or liberal left since the late 1990s, when Blair, Schroder, Clinton, Clark, Chretien, Prodi and D'Alema and Jospin as French PM were in power (with Chirac as conservative President still).

    Then Howard in Australia and Aznar in Spain defied the trend, now Spain and Australia also have centre left PMs with Boris left alone amongst the Scholz, Biden, Ardern, Trudeau, Conte, Macron, Sanchez and Albanese crowd of the liberal left
    But Macron is not of the left. I’d say he is centre at most, more like centre-Right. He was just opposed by the Hard Right so he appeared “Left”

    That’s if these definitions have any utility remaining, which is doubtful in itself

    The hard right candiate wasn't even hard right economically.
    Yes. The definitions Left and Right are now useless, bordering on counter-productive

    Is Xi Jinping Left or Right? Putin? Modi? Macron? Tax n Spend Boris?
    Most major western democracies still have a main party of the conservative centre right and the centre left. In all those nations which do outside of the UK the centre left are now in power in Germany, Italy, Spain, Australia, Canada (whose Liberal party is basically centre left) etc. You can also add smaller nations like New Zealand and Sweden and Denmark and Portugal etc, with Greece the only other exception with a conservative government.

    The major exceptions in not having 2 main conservative centre right and centre left parties are the US and France, which have a centrist liberal party and a Nationalist right party as their 2 main parties now and in both those nations it is also the liberals in power not the Nationalists (in France the conservatives were near wiped out in the Presidential election and face heavy losses in the legislative elections and the establishment conservatives in the GOP have also been near eliminated by Trumpite Nationalists).

    Xi is left and on the Marxist wing of the Chinese Communist Party with some Nationalism thrown in, Modi is a conservative Nationalist as is Putin and Bolsonaro in Brazil so conservative Nationalism is doing better in the developing world albeit Bolsonaro may lose to Lula later in the year
    I really don’t believe Xi Jinping is on the “Left” let alone a “Marxist”

    China is one of the most ruthlessly capitalist countries on earth. Darwinianly so

    Xi Jinping’s China is Sui Generis. If I had to describe it, I would say it is State Directed Surveillance Capitalism run by Oligarchic Authoritarian ethno-Nationalists. What the fuck do you call that with one word? Dunno, but it sure doesn’t fit the glib Left Right model which is now hideously outdated (unsurprisingly, since it dates from the French Revolution)

    We Need New Words
    Is it? China has the greatest concentration of state ownership of industry in the developed world too and any billlionaire who gets on the wrong side of Beijing will find themselves jailed or shot.

    China is not Singapore or even Hong Kong as was anymore under Xi, that is clear
    But any visitor to, say, Shanghai in 2019, would have no problem distinguishing it from, say, Leningrad or Warsaw in.1959

    China is brutally, dazzlingly capitalist. A very different form of capitalism to the one we know, but still capitalist

    Marxism has no role whatsoever in modern Chinese politics
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 9,077
    kle4 said:

    Australian 2022 general election result > handwriting on the wall for Boris & "true" Tories?

    Mene mene tekel upharsin

    Election results overseas do not mean anything for other countries, ot at most very little.

    The writing may be on the wall for him, but that won't be a sign of it. It's fun to read too much into different elections with different issues and histories, but fun is all it is.
    Your general thesis is flawed IMHO. Reading too much into it is bad, but ignoring clear similarities is just as bad, and maybe worse. Depending on the level of analysis.

    As for Australia 2022 and UK whenever, perhaps you should check out the analysis I posted previous thread from ABC.net.au and check out the rather interesting parallels between the two situations?

    I mean, Morrison is practically Johnson without the fright wig. While Albanese come off as a virtual clone of Starmer. Just TWO similarities, check for yourself and reckon you'll find more.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 77,088
    Farooq said:

    kle4 said:

    Australian 2022 general election result > handwriting on the wall for Boris & "true" Tories?

    Mene mene tekel upharsin

    Election results overseas do not mean anything for other countries, ot at most very little.

    The writing may be on the wall for him, but that won't be a sign of it. It's fun to read too much into different elections with different issues and histories, but fun is all it is.
    Wise words. I find it intensely strange that people are so invested in the left/right doing well in a country they have little or nothing to do with. The way some people on here despise Trudeau or Morrison is a little daft considering only a few seem to have any ties at all with those countries.
    Obviously the parties involved themselves sometimes play up their similarities, and it's not like there are never any at all, but as reliable indicators of political trends globally? No.

    And as you note how much do people generally really know about leaders of other places, and their parties? Do the Canadian Tories align perfectly with the UK Tories? Do Labor agree on everything with Labour? Especially when you factor in names can mislead, as the Liberal Democrats of UK, Japan and Russia could tell you. Yet people will judge what they regard as a counterpart as if it were like their home party.

    And even if they did align perfectly with a UK party ideologically, the differing histories and contexts render any direct comparison to be of reduced benefit.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 22,722
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson will survive, he avoided wipeout in the local elections and the poll rating for the Tories is not yet devastating.

    He will have a harder time being re elected though, leftwingers on twitter predictably already saying Trump and Morrison now down and only Boris left to go. As of tomorrow when Albanese is sworn in as PM of Australia, Boris will be the only conservative leader left in the Anglosphere and G7 outside of Japan. At least until Italy votes next summer there is no prospect of that changing

    Yes.
    There doesn't seem to be much serious attention paid to this trend. You and me have mentioned it a few times over the past several months.
    Do you have a theory why?

    Edit. Why it is happening.
    Not why isn't being widely commented on.
    I expect post Covid the need for continued state support for businesses and families is a factor, cultural overreach by some conservatives in the culture wars ignoring climate change etc and being too aggressive on immigration and trans (even if many swing voters have concerns about them).

    As of tomorrow the West will have its greatest concentration of world leaders from the centre or liberal left since the late 1990s, when Blair, Schroder, Clinton, Clark, Chretien, Prodi and D'Alema and Jospin as French PM were in power (with Chirac as conservative President still).

    Then Howard in Australia and Aznar in Spain defied the trend, now Spain and Australia also have centre left PMs with Boris left alone amongst the Scholz, Biden, Ardern, Trudeau, Conte, Macron, Sanchez and Albanese crowd of the liberal left
    I think you're reading far too much into the Australian result. It was probably just that people were fed up with the Liberal coalition after 9 years in power.
    But it isn't one result. It's a trend, like it or not.
    It's also worth considering that in most Western countries the main parties of the Left are, economically much to the Right of where they would have been in 198x.

    Which is what gets the Corbynistas so upset.
    Some not all, Albanese for example will be the most leftwing Labor PM since Whitlam in the 1970s, he is certainly left of Hawke and Keating
    Is he? His programme wasn't that radical. I suppose that's definition again.
    I mean his climate policies are timid by Boris' standards.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 9,077

    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson will survive, he avoided wipeout in the local elections and the poll rating for the Tories is not yet devastating.

    He will have a harder time being re elected though, leftwingers on twitter predictably already saying Trump and Morrison now down and only Boris left to go. As of tomorrow when Albanese is sworn in as PM of Australia, Boris will be the only conservative leader left in the Anglosphere and G7 outside of Japan. At least until Italy votes next summer there is no prospect of that changing

    Yes.
    There doesn't seem to be much serious attention paid to this trend. You and me have mentioned it a few times over the past several months.
    Do you have a theory why?

    Edit. Why it is happening.
    Not why isn't being widely commented on.
    I expect post Covid the need for continued state support for businesses and families is a factor, cultural overreach by some conservatives in the culture wars ignoring climate change etc and being too aggressive on immigration and trans (even if many swing voters have concerns about them).

    As of tomorrow the West will have its greatest concentration of world leaders from the centre or liberal left since the late 1990s, when Blair, Schroder, Clinton, Clark, Chretien, Prodi and D'Alema and Jospin as French PM were in power (with Chirac as conservative President still).

    Then Howard in Australia and Aznar in Spain defied the trend, now Spain and Australia also have centre left PMs with Boris left alone amongst the Scholz, Biden, Ardern, Trudeau, Conte, Macron, Sanchez and Albanese crowd of the liberal left
    I think you're reading far too much into the Australian result. It was probably just that people were fed up with the Liberal coalition after 9 years in power.
    The hardline anti-Global Warming stuff is becoming untenable in Australia - the climate is literally changing. Visibly.
    Particularly when it is on fire.
    Although that’s not been helped by changing management practices around clearing plant matter. And don’t forget that the Australian bush thrives on fire for renewal.
    But not the Coalition, apparently.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 23,032
    dixiedean said:

    If not left and right then.
    Mainstream Conservatism has had a shocking run of results lately.

    Different countries have different factors but perhaps a general pattern that it became associated too much with privilege and stopped being aspirational.

    So in the UK and USA this led to the loss of urban and younger voters.

    But these were replaced by working class voters from the industrial areas and perhaps some ethnic voters breaking away from the left.

    In France the working class voters were instead picked up by the FN.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 22,722

    kle4 said:

    Australian 2022 general election result > handwriting on the wall for Boris & "true" Tories?

    Mene mene tekel upharsin

    Election results overseas do not mean anything for other countries, ot at most very little.

    The writing may be on the wall for him, but that won't be a sign of it. It's fun to read too much into different elections with different issues and histories, but fun is all it is.
    Your general thesis is flawed IMHO. Reading too much into it is bad, but ignoring clear similarities is just as bad, and maybe worse. Depending on the level of analysis.

    As for Australia 2022 and UK whenever, perhaps you should check out the analysis I posted previous thread from ABC.net.au and check out the rather interesting parallels between the two situations?

    I mean, Morrison is practically Johnson without the fright wig. While Albanese come off as a virtual clone of Starmer. Just TWO similarities, check for yourself and reckon you'll find more.
    He also ran a Red Wall strategy. With a little success. Only to find his Blue Wall collapsed.
    Strategy and messaging definitely has a read across. Especially in societies as similar as Oz and us.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 7,449
    kle4 said:

    Farooq said:

    kle4 said:

    Australian 2022 general election result > handwriting on the wall for Boris & "true" Tories?

    Mene mene tekel upharsin

    Election results overseas do not mean anything for other countries, ot at most very little.

    The writing may be on the wall for him, but that won't be a sign of it. It's fun to read too much into different elections with different issues and histories, but fun is all it is.
    Wise words. I find it intensely strange that people are so invested in the left/right doing well in a country they have little or nothing to do with. The way some people on here despise Trudeau or Morrison is a little daft considering only a few seem to have any ties at all with those countries.
    Obviously the parties involved themselves sometimes play up their similarities, and it's not like there are never any at all, but as reliable indicators of political trends globally? No.

    And as you note how much do people generally really know about leaders of other places, and their parties? Do the Canadian Tories align perfectly with the UK Tories? Do Labor agree on everything with Labour? Especially when you factor in names can mislead, as the Liberal Democrats of UK, Japan and Russia could tell you. Yet people will judge what they regard as a counterpart as if it were like their home party.

    And even if they did align perfectly with a UK party ideologically, the differing histories and contexts render any direct comparison to be of reduced benefit.
    Yeah, circumstances matter. I could vote further right or left depending the national circumstances. Some countries at some times need more government, others need less.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 77,088
    edited May 21

    kle4 said:

    Australian 2022 general election result > handwriting on the wall for Boris & "true" Tories?

    Mene mene tekel upharsin

    Election results overseas do not mean anything for other countries, ot at most very little.

    The writing may be on the wall for him, but that won't be a sign of it. It's fun to read too much into different elections with different issues and histories, but fun is all it is.
    Your general thesis is flawed IMHO. Reading too much into it is bad, but ignoring clear similarities is just as bad, and maybe worse. Depending on the level of analysis.

    As for Australia 2022 and UK whenever, perhaps you should check out the analysis I posted previous thread from ABC.net.au and check out the rather interesting parallels between the two situations?

    I mean, Morrison is practically Johnson without the fright wig. While Albanese come off as a virtual clone of Starmer. Just TWO similarities, check for yourself and reckon you'll find more.
    I disagree completely, not least because you've misinterpreted my premise. The issue is finding paralllels, which as you note exist, and then transplanting ready made commentary and solutions as if the two are identical, even when those parallels can be very superficial. And even if some of them are not, it is simply not the case that the political environments and contexts of different nations fit together exactly. We do not face the precise same issues as Australia, we do not have the history of France, or America, or other places. Only generalities will transfer well, and that is not very useful.

    I think reading too much into such things is overwhelmingly more likely than not reading enough into it, because naturally we tend to fit politics and history into our own frames of reference. This person is the Boris of Australia, the Trump of Brazil, the Corbyn of France etc etc. That's fun, it is useful to a point as it helps us understand the broad thrust of things, but what you have done is well beyond that, it is applying a direct correlation between distinct electoral events.

    And for another thing, I think snapshot analyses of election results is usually wrong anyway. Once the data and trends are examined in depth over months or years, snap takes about what happened, be it youthquakes or something else, are often mistaken and yet the myth of them never dies (I read recently that was the case about Obama's winning coalition, but haven't enough knowledge to know if that is a fair case).

    So I think the idea reading too little is as big or bigger a risk or mistake as reading too much into the parallels is far more flawed. It's what political consultants sell - I got Morrison elected, I can for you too - but messaging and situation matter far more than, and those just will not carry over, and so a loss or win for one will not presage a loss or win elsewhere.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 100,923
    edited May 21
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson will survive, he avoided wipeout in the local elections and the poll rating for the Tories is not yet devastating.

    He will have a harder time being re elected though, leftwingers on twitter predictably already saying Trump and Morrison now down and only Boris left to go. As of tomorrow when Albanese is sworn in as PM of Australia, Boris will be the only conservative leader left in the Anglosphere and G7 outside of Japan. At least until Italy votes next summer there is no prospect of that changing

    Yes.
    There doesn't seem to be much serious attention paid to this trend. You and me have mentioned it a few times over the past several months.
    Do you have a theory why?

    Edit. Why it is happening.
    Not why isn't being widely commented on.
    I expect post Covid the need for continued state support for businesses and families is a factor, cultural overreach by some conservatives in the culture wars ignoring climate change etc and being too aggressive on immigration and trans (even if many swing voters have concerns about them).

    As of tomorrow the West will have its greatest concentration of world leaders from the centre or liberal left since the late 1990s, when Blair, Schroder, Clinton, Clark, Chretien, Prodi and D'Alema and Jospin as French PM were in power (with Chirac as conservative President still).

    Then Howard in Australia and Aznar in Spain defied the trend, now Spain and Australia also have centre left PMs with Boris left alone amongst the Scholz, Biden, Ardern, Trudeau, Conte, Macron, Sanchez and Albanese crowd of the liberal left
    I think you're reading far too much into the Australian result. It was probably just that people were fed up with the Liberal coalition after 9 years in power.
    But it isn't one result. It's a trend, like it or not.
    It's also worth considering that in most Western countries the main parties of the Left are, economically much to the Right of where they would have been in 198x.

    Which is what gets the Corbynistas so upset.
    Some not all, Albanese for example will be the most leftwing Labor PM since Whitlam in the 1970s, he is certainly left of Hawke and Keating
    Is he? His programme wasn't that radical. I suppose that's definition again.
    I mean his climate policies are timid by Boris' standards.
    He wants to go on a spending spree such that it will lead to a $4.7 billion rise in the Australian deficit, that is certainly way left of Keating's fiscally conservative budgets in the 1980s.

    His government is also closely linked to the unions and will impose fines for anti competitive behaviour and crack down on tax avoidance and give an Indigenous peoples' 'Voice' in Parliament and Albanese unlike Boris has called bans on trans players in sports 'cynical and divisive'

    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/do-your-job-albanese-slams-pm-s-trans-fight-20220412-p5acwa
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 2,127
    ydoethur said:

    If Case is sacked, that will mean a third CS in just four years.

    If Acland-Hood goes too, that will be the third permanent US at the DFE in three years.

    Perhaps we should stop referring to 'permanent' secretaries?

    Anthony Acland once told me of a trip he’d made to Japan when he was Permanent Under-Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs.

    When he was introduced to Hirohito the Emperor did a double take and turned to ask his advisor something.

    It turned out the official translator had introduced him as Britain’s “Immortal Junior Typist”…
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 9,077
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson will survive, he avoided wipeout in the local elections and the poll rating for the Tories is not yet devastating.

    He will have a harder time being re elected though, leftwingers on twitter predictably already saying Trump and Morrison now down and only Boris left to go. As of tomorrow when Albanese is sworn in as PM of Australia, Boris will be the only conservative leader left in the Anglosphere and G7 outside of Japan. At least until Italy votes next summer there is no prospect of that changing

    Yes.
    There doesn't seem to be much serious attention paid to this trend. You and me have mentioned it a few times over the past several months.
    Do you have a theory why?

    Edit. Why it is happening.
    Not why isn't being widely commented on.
    I expect post Covid the need for continued state support for businesses and families is a factor, cultural overreach by some conservatives in the culture wars ignoring climate change etc and being too aggressive on immigration and trans (even if many swing voters have concerns about them).

    As of tomorrow the West will have its greatest concentration of world leaders from the centre or liberal left since the late 1990s, when Blair, Schroder, Clinton, Clark, Chretien, Prodi and D'Alema and Jospin as French PM were in power (with Chirac as conservative President still).

    Then Howard in Australia and Aznar in Spain defied the trend, now Spain and Australia also have centre left PMs with Boris left alone amongst the Scholz, Biden, Ardern, Trudeau, Conte, Macron, Sanchez and Albanese crowd of the liberal left
    I think you're reading far too much into the Australian result. It was probably just that people were fed up with the Liberal coalition after 9 years in power.
    But it isn't one result. It's a trend, like it or not.
    It's also worth considering that in most Western countries the main parties of the Left are, economically much to the Right of where they would have been in 198x.

    Which is what gets the Corbynistas so upset.
    Some not all, Albanese for example will be the most leftwing Labor PM since Whitlam in the 1970s, he is certainly left of Hawke and Keating
    Is he? His programme wasn't that radical. I suppose that's definition again.
    I mean his climate policies are timid by Boris' standards.
    Notion that Albanese is the Red Menace is just recycled crap from Oz that didn't work there cause for reason you cite. Just typical of "true" Tories whistling into their own . . . err . . . wind.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 7,449

    dixiedean said:

    If not left and right then.
    Mainstream Conservatism has had a shocking run of results lately.

    Different countries have different factors but perhaps a general pattern that it became associated too much with privilege and stopped being aspirational.

    So in the UK and USA this led to the loss of urban and younger voters.

    But these were replaced by working class voters from the industrial areas and perhaps some ethnic voters breaking away from the left.

    In France the working class voters were instead picked up by the FN.
    Source?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 100,923
    dixiedean said:

    kle4 said:

    Australian 2022 general election result > handwriting on the wall for Boris & "true" Tories?

    Mene mene tekel upharsin

    Election results overseas do not mean anything for other countries, ot at most very little.

    The writing may be on the wall for him, but that won't be a sign of it. It's fun to read too much into different elections with different issues and histories, but fun is all it is.
    Your general thesis is flawed IMHO. Reading too much into it is bad, but ignoring clear similarities is just as bad, and maybe worse. Depending on the level of analysis.

    As for Australia 2022 and UK whenever, perhaps you should check out the analysis I posted previous thread from ABC.net.au and check out the rather interesting parallels between the two situations?

    I mean, Morrison is practically Johnson without the fright wig. While Albanese come off as a virtual clone of Starmer. Just TWO similarities, check for yourself and reckon you'll find more.
    He also ran a Red Wall strategy. With a little success. Only to find his Blue Wall collapsed.
    Strategy and messaging definitely has a read across. Especially in societies as similar as Oz and us.
    His red wall strategy worked when he won in 2019, not in 2022 when his blue wall collapsed.

    A lesson for Boris there that while still appealing to blue collar working class voters in ex industrial areas he cannot ignore upper middle class voters in affluent areas either
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 100,923
    edited May 21
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson will survive, he avoided wipeout in the local elections and the poll rating for the Tories is not yet devastating.

    He will have a harder time being re elected though, leftwingers on twitter predictably already saying Trump and Morrison now down and only Boris left to go. As of tomorrow when Albanese is sworn in as PM of Australia, Boris will be the only conservative leader left in the Anglosphere and G7 outside of Japan. At least until Italy votes next summer there is no prospect of that changing

    Yes.
    There doesn't seem to be much serious attention paid to this trend. You and me have mentioned it a few times over the past several months.
    Do you have a theory why?

    Edit. Why it is happening.
    Not why isn't being widely commented on.
    I expect post Covid the need for continued state support for businesses and families is a factor, cultural overreach by some conservatives in the culture wars ignoring climate change etc and being too aggressive on immigration and trans (even if many swing voters have concerns about them).

    As of tomorrow the West will have its greatest concentration of world leaders from the centre or liberal left since the late 1990s, when Blair, Schroder, Clinton, Clark, Chretien, Prodi and D'Alema and Jospin as French PM were in power (with Chirac as conservative President still).

    Then Howard in Australia and Aznar in Spain defied the trend, now Spain and Australia also have centre left PMs with Boris left alone amongst the Scholz, Biden, Ardern, Trudeau, Conte, Macron, Sanchez and Albanese crowd of the liberal left
    But Macron is not of the left. I’d say he is centre at most, more like centre-Right. He was just opposed by the Hard Right so he appeared “Left”

    That’s if these definitions have any utility remaining, which is doubtful in itself

    The hard right candiate wasn't even hard right economically.
    Yes. The definitions Left and Right are now useless, bordering on counter-productive

    Is Xi Jinping Left or Right? Putin? Modi? Macron? Tax n Spend Boris?
    Most major western democracies still have a main party of the conservative centre right and the centre left. In all those nations which do outside of the UK the centre left are now in power in Germany, Italy, Spain, Australia, Canada (whose Liberal party is basically centre left) etc. You can also add smaller nations like New Zealand and Sweden and Denmark and Portugal etc, with Greece the only other exception with a conservative government.

    The major exceptions in not having 2 main conservative centre right and centre left parties are the US and France, which have a centrist liberal party and a Nationalist right party as their 2 main parties now and in both those nations it is also the liberals in power not the Nationalists (in France the conservatives were near wiped out in the Presidential election and face heavy losses in the legislative elections and the establishment conservatives in the GOP have also been near eliminated by Trumpite Nationalists).

    Xi is left and on the Marxist wing of the Chinese Communist Party with some Nationalism thrown in, Modi is a conservative Nationalist as is Putin and Bolsonaro in Brazil so conservative Nationalism is doing better in the developing world albeit Bolsonaro may lose to Lula later in the year
    I really don’t believe Xi Jinping is on the “Left” let alone a “Marxist”

    China is one of the most ruthlessly capitalist countries on earth. Darwinianly so

    Xi Jinping’s China is Sui Generis. If I had to describe it, I would say it is State Directed Surveillance Capitalism run by Oligarchic Authoritarian ethno-Nationalists. What the fuck do you call that with one word? Dunno, but it sure doesn’t fit the glib Left Right model which is now hideously outdated (unsurprisingly, since it dates from the French Revolution)

    We Need New Words
    Is it? China has the greatest concentration of state ownership of industry in the developed world too and any billlionaire who gets on the wrong side of Beijing will find themselves jailed or shot.

    China is not Singapore or even Hong Kong as was anymore under Xi, that is clear
    But any visitor to, say, Shanghai in 2019, would have no problem distinguishing it from, say, Leningrad or Warsaw in.1959

    China is brutally, dazzlingly capitalist. A very different form of capitalism to the one we know, but still capitalist

    Marxism has no role whatsoever in modern Chinese politics
    60% of China's market capitalisation comes from state owned enterprises, that is not capitalism on any definition and certainly not the capitalism of Thatcherite privatisations

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State-owned_enterprises_of_China
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 77,088
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    kle4 said:

    Australian 2022 general election result > handwriting on the wall for Boris & "true" Tories?

    Mene mene tekel upharsin

    Election results overseas do not mean anything for other countries, ot at most very little.

    The writing may be on the wall for him, but that won't be a sign of it. It's fun to read too much into different elections with different issues and histories, but fun is all it is.
    Your general thesis is flawed IMHO. Reading too much into it is bad, but ignoring clear similarities is just as bad, and maybe worse. Depending on the level of analysis.

    As for Australia 2022 and UK whenever, perhaps you should check out the analysis I posted previous thread from ABC.net.au and check out the rather interesting parallels between the two situations?

    I mean, Morrison is practically Johnson without the fright wig. While Albanese come off as a virtual clone of Starmer. Just TWO similarities, check for yourself and reckon you'll find more.
    He also ran a Red Wall strategy. With a little success. Only to find his Blue Wall collapsed.
    Strategy and messaging definitely has a read across. Especially in societies as similar as Oz and us.
    His red wall strategy worked when he won in 2019, not in 2022 when his blue wall collapsed.

    A lesson for Boris there that while still appealing to blue collar working class voters in ex industrial areas he cannot ignore upper middle class voters in affluent areas either
    Hence ditching the planning changes!
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 23,032
    Farooq said:

    dixiedean said:

    If not left and right then.
    Mainstream Conservatism has had a shocking run of results lately.

    Different countries have different factors but perhaps a general pattern that it became associated too much with privilege and stopped being aspirational.

    So in the UK and USA this led to the loss of urban and younger voters.

    But these were replaced by working class voters from the industrial areas and perhaps some ethnic voters breaking away from the left.

    In France the working class voters were instead picked up by the FN.
    Source?
    Well who else was voting for Le Pen ?

    She certainly did well in the old industrial areas.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 2,127
    Andy_JS said:

    Monkeypox. Anyone know anything about it?

    Endemic in West Africa. Passed by close contact, including sexual congress. There’s a decent vaccine.

    Don’t panic
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 100,923
    edited May 21
    Farooq said:

    dixiedean said:

    If not left and right then.
    Mainstream Conservatism has had a shocking run of results lately.

    Different countries have different factors but perhaps a general pattern that it became associated too much with privilege and stopped being aspirational.

    So in the UK and USA this led to the loss of urban and younger voters.

    But these were replaced by working class voters from the industrial areas and perhaps some ethnic voters breaking away from the left.

    In France the working class voters were instead picked up by the FN.
    Source?
    Even in 2017 Le Pen won 56% of bluecollar workers and expanded on that in 2022, her coalition is closer to Boris and Trump's on that score, minus pensioners who Macron won. The French Conservatives meanwhile under Pecresse got an even lower voteshare in the presidential election this year than May's Tories in the European elections of 2019 before Boris took over.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 447
    On the confusion of names: In discussing Australian politics, American journalists often use this odd formulation: the "conservative Liberal Party".

    But we are confused here, too: A "progressive" in the United States generally favors social insurance policies like those pioneered by Bismark, bicycles, and trains, all from 19th century in the US. And, of course, windmills are far older. And a "progressive" is likely to oppose GMOs and adhere to what can fairly be caused nature worship, which dates back even further.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 7,449

    Farooq said:

    dixiedean said:

    If not left and right then.
    Mainstream Conservatism has had a shocking run of results lately.

    Different countries have different factors but perhaps a general pattern that it became associated too much with privilege and stopped being aspirational.

    So in the UK and USA this led to the loss of urban and younger voters.

    But these were replaced by working class voters from the industrial areas and perhaps some ethnic voters breaking away from the left.

    In France the working class voters were instead picked up by the FN.
    Source?
    Well who else was voting for Le Pen ?

    She certainly did well in the old industrial areas.
    I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm just hoping for some reliable data. I've not found anything that confirms or denies it so far.
    I've seen data on age, for example, but not on class.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 7,449

    On the confusion of names: In discussing Australian politics, American journalists often use this odd formulation: the "conservative Liberal Party".

    But we are confused here, too: A "progressive" in the United States generally favors social insurance policies like those pioneered by Bismark, bicycles, and trains, all from 19th century in the US. And, of course, windmills are far older. And a "progressive" is likely to oppose GMOs and adhere to what can fairly be caused nature worship, which dates back even further.

    What's odd? Conservatives are often liberal too. That's a very common political position.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 9,077
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Australian 2022 general election result > handwriting on the wall for Boris & "true" Tories?

    Mene mene tekel upharsin

    Election results overseas do not mean anything for other countries, ot at most very little.

    The writing may be on the wall for him, but that won't be a sign of it. It's fun to read too much into different elections with different issues and histories, but fun is all it is.
    Your general thesis is flawed IMHO. Reading too much into it is bad, but ignoring clear similarities is just as bad, and maybe worse. Depending on the level of analysis.

    As for Australia 2022 and UK whenever, perhaps you should check out the analysis I posted previous thread from ABC.net.au and check out the rather interesting parallels between the two situations?

    I mean, Morrison is practically Johnson without the fright wig. While Albanese come off as a virtual clone of Starmer. Just TWO similarities, check for yourself and reckon you'll find more.
    I disagree completely, not least because you've misinterpreted my premise. The issue is finding paralllels, which as you note exist, and then transplanting ready made commentary and solutions as if the two are identical, even when those parallels can be very superficial. And even if some of them are not, it is simply not the case that the political environments and contexts of different nations fit together exactly. We do not face the precise same issues as Australia, we do not have the history of France, or America, or other places. Only generalities will transfer well, and that is not very useful.

    I think reading too much into such things is overwhelmingly more likely than not reading enough into it, because naturally we tend to fit politics and history into our own frames of reference. This person is the Boris of Australia, the Trump of Brazil, the Corbyn of France etc etc. That's fun, it is useful to a point as it helps us understand the broad thrust of things, but what you have done is well beyond that, it is applying a direct correlation between distinct electoral events.

    And for another thing, I think snapshot analyses of election results is usually wrong anyway. Once the data and trends are examined in depth over months or years, snap takes about what happened, be it youthquakes or something else, are often mistaken and yet the myth of them never dies (I read recently that was the case about Obama's winning coalition, but haven't enough knowledge to know if that is a fair case).

    So I think the idea reading too little is as big or bigger a risk or mistake as reading too much into the parallels is far more flawed. It's what political consultants sell - I got Morrison elected, I can for you too - but messaging and situation matter far more than, and those just will not carry over, and so a loss or win for one will not presage a loss or win elsewhere.
    You make some good points. Still think you are going overboard in the direction you are going, though you've rowed back a ways from original contention that connections were

    Again, have you actually looked at any of the Oz analysis, or even the actual results so far? Could make your argument less theoretical.

    And as for misinterpreting your argument, think that YOU missed my point - one of which is that the fact that Morrison was done in, in part, by gender gap including "Teal" independents who ripped the heart out of his caucus, is a warning to Boris & Co, and a signal to the UK opposition.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 16,923
    How to define the regime in China?

    Fascist.

    In India?

    Wannabe Fascist.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,315

    How to define the regime in China?

    Fascist.

    In India?

    Wannabe Fascist.

    Fascist meaning very bad? I'm not sure they fit the political definition of fascist.
This discussion has been closed.