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Johnson backers a bit less confident about his survival – politicalbetting.com
Johnson backers a bit less confident about his survival – politicalbetting.com
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Johnson backers a bit less confident about his survival – politicalbetting.com
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My own personal view, as I’ve been saying - even in the darkest days of partygate - is that 2024 or later, is value. It remains so.
https://mobile.twitter.com/USEmbassyKyiv/status/1528063753518030849
😁
He will have a harder time being re elected though, leftwingers on twitter predictably already saying Trump and Morrison now down and only Boris left to go. As of tomorrow when Albanese is sworn in as PM of Australia, Boris will be the only conservative leader left in the Anglosphere and G7 outside of Japan. At least until Italy votes next summer there is no prospect of that changing
Probably NOT!
Said Jeremy Thorpe in 1963...
But it is another moment of danger for him, as he prepares to sacrifice various minions (of varying culpability) in his stead.
Mene mene tekel upharsin
For at least the next year however, only Fumio Kishida can keep him company as a fellow conservative within the G7 and amongst the anglosphere leaders he now has no fellow conservatives for company at all after Morrison's defeat
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/may/21/natwests-sir-howard-davies-im-quite-pessimistic-brexit-was-a-significant-mistake
I suppose the bigger question is the Donald Trump one- is there anything that Boris could do which would bring down sufficient wrath to eject him from the Premiership before the next General Election?
And if push comes to shove, is he petulant enough to push the next GE into 2025, even if it means campaigning over Christmas?
There doesn't seem to be much serious attention paid to this trend. You and me have mentioned it a few times over the past several months.
Do you have a theory why?
Edit. Why it is happening.
Not why isn't being widely commented on.
If Acland-Hood goes too, that will be the third permanent US at the DFE in three years.
Perhaps we should stop referring to 'permanent' secretaries?
As of tomorrow the West will have its greatest concentration of world leaders from the centre or liberal left since the late 1990s, when Blair, Schroder, Clinton, Clark, Chretien, Prodi and D'Alema and Jospin as French PM were in power (with Chirac as conservative President still).
Then Howard in Australia and Aznar in Spain defied the trend, now Spain and Australia also have centre left PMs with Boris left alone amongst the Scholz, Biden, Ardern, Trudeau, Conte, Macron, Sanchez and Albanese crowd of the liberal left
Australia did better than even the often cited (by the left) New Zealand, because they kept covid at bay despite being an international hub (especially to China) and having several very large population centres.
Similar problem at the BoE now.
The British state has been hollowed out because bullshit and servility has been prized over competence in recent years.
This is why “yesterday” is too late when it comes to a good time to get rid of Boris.
What worked was a high vaccination rate, especially among the elderly and vulnerable groups.
This simple fact seemed to elude quite a lot of people on PB, though.
Having said that, conservatism has run out of ideological steam. So maybe that’s finally catching up with conservatives.
But then most of them seem to be incompetent at the moment.
- €300M signing bonus
- €100M a year salary AFTER tax
- He will help to decide the coach.
- He will have a say on the sporting director.
- He can approve signings and sales
Staggering. 😳”
https://twitter.com/sportbible/status/1528028321988104195?s=21&t=PW87_4TELUsSTJpO89gUKQ
I don’t blame him, and in a way I don’t blame them. Mbappe is the best player of the world’s favourite sport
However, how on earth can this be squared with Financial Fair Play? Answer: it cannot. PSG makes nothing like this kind of money
If this passes UEFA then this is a green light to Saudi to spunk trillions on Newcastle
Result. A massive swing. And possibly enough losses to give Labor a majority.
'Don't be a fool, boy. Reaction will survive, because reaction always survives. It's the Liberals we need to replace.'
And twenty years later he was the one who made that happen...
Conservatism will survive in some form (indeed, arguably the most conservative leader on display with his mindless nostalgia for some 1960s utopia was Corbyn). I think rather that democratic Conservative governments mostly came to power in the aftermath of the crash and are now, in the normal course of democracy, getting rather tired.
The one department that people judged was doing a good job was DFiD, and that was sacrificed to appease the Daily Mail.
That’s if these definitions have any utility remaining, which is doubtful in itself
If the Saudis want to spend billions on NUFC let them.
Protectionism of the Big Six isn't in anyone's interests but their own.
Football has already sold its soul. They might as well get the best price possible
As you say he was the opponent of the Nationalist right Zemmour and Le Pen and the conservative Pecresse too.
There is no doubt though there seems to be a surge away from conservatives in western elections at present and Boris will do well to defy it again in 2024
Is Xi Jinping Left or Right? Putin? Modi? Macron? Tax n Spend Boris?
That's kinda my thoughts. The GFC saw right leaning governments come to power. Or get entrenched. And their solutions haven't worked. Might as well let the others try. Not that they have any solutions either.
I also think Culture War can be overdone too. Folk tend to forget how much energy the dying days of Major expended on it.
And yet. Incumbent governments of the Centre left get re-elected in Canada and France.
https://twitter.com/mugecevik/status/1528029335734697984
Mainstream Conservatism has had a shocking run of results lately.
Why?
And there is a betting opportunity, if you don't mind very long odds. Shellenberger is running for governor of California, as an independent: https://www.shellenbergerforgovernor.com/
They could do worse, and they almost certainly will.
The major exceptions in not having 2 main conservative centre right and centre left parties are the US and France, which have a centrist liberal party and a Nationalist right party as their 2 main parties now and in both those nations it is also the liberals in power not the Nationalists (in France the conservatives were near wiped out in the Presidential election and face heavy losses in the legislative elections and the establishment conservatives in the GOP have also been near eliminated by Trumpite Nationalists). The Netherlands has a liberal government too.
Xi is left and on the Marxist wing of the Chinese Communist Party with some Nationalism thrown in, Modi is a conservative Nationalist as is Putin and Bolsonaro in Brazil so conservative Nationalism is doing better in the developing world albeit Bolsonaro may lose to Lula later in the year
By lefty I generally mean self-identified Woke Progressives, these days. Their economic beliefs are almost irrelevant
Increasingly, Woke v The Rest is a more useful demarcation, at least in the Anglosphere, than Left v Right
Which is what gets the Corbynistas so upset.
The writing may be on the wall for him, but that won't be a sign of it. It's fun to read too much into different elections with different issues and histories, but fun is all it is.
Am only just realising how many little ways it has affected me.
The first person I told face-to-face asked me when it happened?
I thought. And thought. And said some time at the weekend. This was on Thursday afternoon.
China is one of the most ruthlessly capitalist countries on earth. Darwinianly so
Xi Jinping’s China is Sui Generis. If I had to describe it, I would say it is State Directed Surveillance Capitalism run by Oligarchic Authoritarian ethno-Nationalists. What the fuck do you call that with one word? Dunno, but it sure doesn’t fit the glib Left Right model which is now hideously outdated (unsurprisingly, since it dates from the French Revolution)
We Need New Words
China is not Singapore or even Hong Kong as was anymore under Xi, that is clear
China is brutally, dazzlingly capitalist. A very different form of capitalism to the one we know, but still capitalist
Marxism has no role whatsoever in modern Chinese politics
As for Australia 2022 and UK whenever, perhaps you should check out the analysis I posted previous thread from ABC.net.au and check out the rather interesting parallels between the two situations?
I mean, Morrison is practically Johnson without the fright wig. While Albanese come off as a virtual clone of Starmer. Just TWO similarities, check for yourself and reckon you'll find more.
And as you note how much do people generally really know about leaders of other places, and their parties? Do the Canadian Tories align perfectly with the UK Tories? Do Labor agree on everything with Labour? Especially when you factor in names can mislead, as the Liberal Democrats of UK, Japan and Russia could tell you. Yet people will judge what they regard as a counterpart as if it were like their home party.
And even if they did align perfectly with a UK party ideologically, the differing histories and contexts render any direct comparison to be of reduced benefit.
I mean his climate policies are timid by Boris' standards.
So in the UK and USA this led to the loss of urban and younger voters.
But these were replaced by working class voters from the industrial areas and perhaps some ethnic voters breaking away from the left.
In France the working class voters were instead picked up by the FN.
Strategy and messaging definitely has a read across. Especially in societies as similar as Oz and us.
I think reading too much into such things is overwhelmingly more likely than not reading enough into it, because naturally we tend to fit politics and history into our own frames of reference. This person is the Boris of Australia, the Trump of Brazil, the Corbyn of France etc etc. That's fun, it is useful to a point as it helps us understand the broad thrust of things, but what you have done is well beyond that, it is applying a direct correlation between distinct electoral events.
And for another thing, I think snapshot analyses of election results is usually wrong anyway. Once the data and trends are examined in depth over months or years, snap takes about what happened, be it youthquakes or something else, are often mistaken and yet the myth of them never dies (I read recently that was the case about Obama's winning coalition, but haven't enough knowledge to know if that is a fair case).
So I think the idea reading too little is as big or bigger a risk or mistake as reading too much into the parallels is far more flawed. It's what political consultants sell - I got Morrison elected, I can for you too - but messaging and situation matter far more than, and those just will not carry over, and so a loss or win for one will not presage a loss or win elsewhere.
His government is also closely linked to the unions and will impose fines for anti competitive behaviour and crack down on tax avoidance and give an Indigenous peoples' 'Voice' in Parliament and Albanese unlike Boris has called bans on trans players in sports 'cynical and divisive'
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/do-your-job-albanese-slams-pm-s-trans-fight-20220412-p5acwa
When he was introduced to Hirohito the Emperor did a double take and turned to ask his advisor something.
It turned out the official translator had introduced him as Britain’s “Immortal Junior Typist”…
A lesson for Boris there that while still appealing to blue collar working class voters in ex industrial areas he cannot ignore upper middle class voters in affluent areas either
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State-owned_enterprises_of_China
She certainly did well in the old industrial areas.
Don’t panic
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election
But we are confused here, too: A "progressive" in the United States generally favors social insurance policies like those pioneered by Bismark, bicycles, and trains, all from 19th century in the US. And, of course, windmills are far older. And a "progressive" is likely to oppose GMOs and adhere to what can fairly be caused nature worship, which dates back even further.
Again, have you actually looked at any of the Oz analysis, or even the actual results so far? Could make your argument less theoretical.
And as for misinterpreting your argument, think that YOU missed my point - one of which is that the fact that Morrison was done in, in part, by gender gap including "Teal" independents who ripped the heart out of his caucus, is a warning to Boris & Co, and a signal to the UK opposition.
Fascist.
In India?
Wannabe Fascist.
Tho it really is unique, in truth. Simplistic western models no longer apply
First Minister @NicolaSturgeon kicks off the new campaign for independence with an essay on why we need to decide Scotland’s future now
https://twitter.com/scotnational/status/1528112145120038920
It may have a conservative nationalist leader at the moment but India is also more capitalist than China too and it has a left liberal opposition party that has often been in power in the Congress party
One minor thing which hasn't been commented on here. Because it's profoundly cultural. But is of interest to me because RL.
ScoMo made great strides forward as a "man of the people". He's a genuine rugby league fan. Season ticket holder. Still seen at games whilst PM. And positively engaged too. Not just sitting there. He knows the sport. And the working class sport too. This helped cement his "battling Ocker" reputation. Against Shorten.
But Labor responded with Albanese. A season ticket holder too. Who knows RL back to front. And can hold his own discussing the role of the second.pivot and the advantages and disadvantages of kicking on the third tackle quite as well as Morrison.
This neutralised some of that appeal.
But. What really did was club support. Sco Mo is a fan of Cronulla. A ritzy, wealthy area on the southern beaches. And not overly successful.
Albanese. South Sydney Rabbitohs. The most working class of all the teams possibly excepting Wests. And historically the most successful.
I am more average bloke than yow. And more successful, too. A bit like genuinely supporting Brighton or Sunderland.
A really strange, very oddly minor, example of how an electorally advantageous quirk of character can become a net negative.
Oh, yes, and then they slashed the budget...
Something you can't often say of a run of the mill Red Menace.
It’s going the way of Iran, but with the CCP taking the place of Shia Islam.