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Frosty the no man as our next PM? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited May 22 in General
Frosty the no man as our next PM? – politicalbetting.com

(Also apologies 3) is ill phrased – Johnson forced out due to more fines from Partygate)

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  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,371
    edited May 15
    First, unlike Lord Frost at Tiverton or anywhere else.

    You're right TSE.

    And well done for the win yesterday. I see the Mail on Sunday are outraged at the booing of Prince William and jeering during Abide with Me & God Save the Queen. Tory MP and former Culture Secretary Karen Bradley said: 'It is utterly unacceptable and disgraceful that fans booed Prince William. I would urge the FA to take all necessary action and pursue those responsible.'

    Last time I checked the UK was still a free country. If people wish to boo, or demonstrate, they should be free to. The Nasty Party thinks not.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,371
    p.s. an additional reason why I think Surrey South West will fall to the LibDems at the next General Election is something to which TSE alludes re. David Frost.

    Boris Johnson would be delighted if Jeremy Hunt loses his seat. I would not be at all surprised if he assists in the process.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,522
    Jeremy Hunt fans can now watch the Times interview from a few threads back.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ic34P9v2hPs
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,522
    Heathener said:

    First, unlike Lord Frost at Tiverton or anywhere else.

    You're right TSE.

    And well done for the win yesterday. I see the Mail on Sunday are outraged at the booing of Prince William and jeering during Abide with Me & God Save the Queen. Tory MP and former Culture Secretary Karen Bradley said: 'It is utterly unacceptable and disgraceful that fans booed Prince William. I would urge the FA to take all necessary action and pursue those responsible.'

    Last time I checked the UK was still a free country. If people wish to boo, or demonstrate, they should be free to. The Nasty Party thinks not.

    Britain is a free country even after the Police and Crime Act but even if booing Prince William is justified, should not Abide With Me be sacred? Worse, from the Mail:-

    The jeers started during a rendition of the Christian hymn Abide With Me by the 60-strong B Positive Choir, whose members have sickle cell disease or who have close friends or family suffering from it.

    Hmm. A choir with sickle cell disease. That would be Black people, wouldn't it?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,522
    Peter Hitchens can occasionally surprise:-

    I ask those of you who pray to put in a few words this Sunday for Julian Assange, threatened with extradition to the USA for the noncrime of embarrassing Uncle Sam. Home Secretary Priti Patel must decide by Wednesday whether to let him be taken away to what will almost certainly be a very grim fate, or refuse. I do very much urge her to refuse.
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-10816875/PETER-HITCHENS-Progressives-whod-wreck-Tiger-Heads-school-admit-theyre-wrong.html
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,371

    Heathener said:

    First, unlike Lord Frost at Tiverton or anywhere else.

    You're right TSE.

    And well done for the win yesterday. I see the Mail on Sunday are outraged at the booing of Prince William and jeering during Abide with Me & God Save the Queen. Tory MP and former Culture Secretary Karen Bradley said: 'It is utterly unacceptable and disgraceful that fans booed Prince William. I would urge the FA to take all necessary action and pursue those responsible.'

    Last time I checked the UK was still a free country. If people wish to boo, or demonstrate, they should be free to. The Nasty Party thinks not.

    even if booing Prince William is justified, should not Abide With Me be sacred?
    Booing an establishment hymn is fine if they wish to.

    For anyone who feels that tHillsborough was an establishment cover up and who does not wish to wait for jam tomorrow, the lyrics to the hymn are no consolation.

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,522
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    First, unlike Lord Frost at Tiverton or anywhere else.

    You're right TSE.

    And well done for the win yesterday. I see the Mail on Sunday are outraged at the booing of Prince William and jeering during Abide with Me & God Save the Queen. Tory MP and former Culture Secretary Karen Bradley said: 'It is utterly unacceptable and disgraceful that fans booed Prince William. I would urge the FA to take all necessary action and pursue those responsible.'

    Last time I checked the UK was still a free country. If people wish to boo, or demonstrate, they should be free to. The Nasty Party thinks not.

    even if booing Prince William is justified, should not Abide With Me be sacred?
    Booing an establishment hymn is fine if they wish to.

    For anyone who feels that tHillsborough was an establishment cover up and who does not wish to wait for jam tomorrow, the lyrics to the hymn are no consolation.

    Have Liverpool fans previously booed Abide With Me, which is of course sung at every FA Cup Final, or was there perhaps a new factor here, as alluded to in my earlier post?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,371
    The funny thing about the Mail's reactionary outrage is that it will make it more of a 'thing' to boo the royals.

    They really do shoot themselves in the foot.

    I find it interesting though. I'm not sure I would boo William but I get this sense at the moment that reminds me so much of 1992-7. During that time there was this same reactionary 'Back to Basics' guff and outrage from the right wing press. The same Nasty Party rearing its ugly head. But all the while the country was getting ready to move on.

    Times they are a changing.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 9,627
    Michael Gove wants the Lords relocated to “other parts of the UK”. Wick, your day has come!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,315
    I'd be interested to know how Stuart thinks the UK entry in Eurovision managed to come second.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,522
    Andy_JS said:

    I'd be interested to know how Stuart thinks the UK entry in Eurovision managed to come second.

    Worse than that — Britain usurped Sweden who were expected (by the betting markets) to come second to Ukraine.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 55,591
    Ukraine first, Britain second, France & Germany last. Who said Eurovision wasn’t political?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 9,627
    edited May 15
    Andy_JS said:

    I'd be interested to know how Stuart thinks the UK entry in Eurovision managed to come second.

    Winning, or coming in the top 5, is a complicated game. Factors include:

    - the quality of the songwriting (one would hope that this might be the principal determinant; it probably isn’t)
    - the quality of the singing voice(s)
    - the quality of the musicianship
    - the overall “show” put on by the act, including choreography
    - the “attractiveness” of the contestants (unfortunate, but that’s life; classic example last night being Spain, who tv-viewers loved and radio-listeners thought was rubbish)
    - the outfits and makeup (sounds trivial, but they would not invest so much time and money in these if it were not an important factor)
    - whether the competing state belongs to a “bloc” (eg Spain doesn’t = not good; Baltics/Scandics do = good)
    - politics and “soft power”

    In answer to your question, I’ve no idea. I only listened to maybe 1/10 of the whole show, on the radio, and missed the performance you are enquiring about. I heard a couple of his Green Room snippets, and he sounded like he was stuck in a pastiche of the 1970s, but it is impossible to judge an artist based on 10 seconds of off-the-cuff asides.

    I’m sure there are weighty works available on the art of Eurovision success. Perhaps refer to them?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 55,591
    On topic, Jon Worth is an interesting commentator - especially on trains, but here his BDS is showing. FTTNMWNBPM
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 34,010
    Probably conducted before Wills & Kate's epochal visit to Glasgow.



    https://tinyurl.com/nhzp2vhy
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,113

    Andy_JS said:

    I'd be interested to know how Stuart thinks the UK entry in Eurovision managed to come second.

    Worse than that — Britain usurped Sweden who were expected (by the betting markets) to come second to Ukraine.
    FPT - my point was that Ukraine were too short in the betting markets and it was cheap to lay them at 1/3 before the judges voting results came in, where they underperformed expectations.

    Sometimes you take a value loser and there's always a price that makes that worthwhile - would you have backed them even at 1.05, for example, before any votes came in?

    I didn't do this last night as I totally misread how the public votes worked on top of the judges - but I'd definitely consider doing it again on the basis that markets do overrreact, sometimes get it wrong and can be surprisingly slow to correct.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 9,627
    edited May 15

    Andy_JS said:

    I'd be interested to know how Stuart thinks the UK entry in Eurovision managed to come second.

    Worse than that — Britain usurped Sweden who were expected (by the betting markets) to come second to Ukraine.
    We’re all delighted with how Cornelia performed. I missed her last night, but I saw her in Melodifestivalen, which is the tv event of the year here. It is an error to worry too much about comparing yourself to others. One ought to be pleased that you put up the best performance that you could, and I think we did.

    On the betting markets, I’m not sure you’re correct. I’m pretty sure the UK was in 2nd place, certainly in the last few weeks. I’m sure stats are available somewhere.

    In contrast to the slander on here, I am in fact an Anglophile, so well done to the lad! And well done to Ukraine!
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 9,627

    Andy_JS said:

    I'd be interested to know how Stuart thinks the UK entry in Eurovision managed to come second.

    Worse than that — Britain usurped Sweden who were expected (by the betting markets) to come second to Ukraine.
    FPT - my point was that Ukraine were too short in the betting markets and it was cheap to lay them at 1/3 before the judges voting results came in, where they underperformed expectations.

    Sometimes you take a value loser and there's always a price that makes that worthwhile - would you have backed them even at 1.05, for example, before any votes came in?

    I didn't do this last night as I totally misread how the public votes worked on top of the judges - but I'd definitely consider doing it again on the basis that markets do overrreact, sometimes get it wrong and can be surprisingly slow to correct.
    I was flabbergasted* by your error last night. Anyone who has watched Eurovision in the last fifteen years knows that the final scores swing wildly in the last ten minutes. The public almost always trump the juries.

    (*but not as flabbergasted as I was by HYFUD’s Victorian ethno-gobbledegook. He was called a racist, and the epithet was justified.)
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 9,596

    Probably conducted before Wills & Kate's epochal visit to Glasgow.



    https://tinyurl.com/nhzp2vhy

    Nothing says "Future of Britain" like an old man in fancy dress on a gold chair telling you that your National Insurance has to go up.
  • mickydroymickydroy Posts: 73
    Heathener said:

    The funny thing about the Mail's reactionary outrage is that it will make it more of a 'thing' to boo the royals.

    They really do shoot themselves in the foot.

    I find it interesting though. I'm not sure I would boo William but I get this sense at the moment that reminds me so much of 1992-7. During that time there was this same reactionary 'Back to Basics' guff and outrage from the right wing press. The same Nasty Party rearing its ugly head. But all the while the country was getting ready to move on.

    Times they are a changing.

    Anything that annoys the Mail is fine by me, but I agree times are changing, someone needs to address the massive inequalities in this country sharpish, and that person ain't the fat liar in No10
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 9,627

    Probably conducted before Wills & Kate's epochal visit to Glasgow.



    https://tinyurl.com/nhzp2vhy

    It is in attitudes to the monarchy that it is easiest to understand England as being a foreign country. When you see how some folk have a Pavlovian response to certain signals it is common for your Scots jaw to drop. What are they on?!

    I would never boo them. I never boo anybody. I just ignore them, as far as that is possible when your wife is a raving monarchist 😉

    The crisis is fast approaching. In England, not in Scotland.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 2,566
    According to this article in Scientific American everyone alive today had identical ancestors at a point "somewhere between 5300 and 2200 B.C."

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.scientificamerican.com/article/humans-are-all-more-closely-related-than-we-commonly-think/?amp=true

    Also

    "Beginning in 1492, “you begin to see the European genes flowing in every direction until our estimates are that there are no people in South America today who don’t have European ancestry.”

    So still plenty of room for Eurovision to expand!
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,080

    Andy_JS said:

    I'd be interested to know how Stuart thinks the UK entry in Eurovision managed to come second.

    Worse than that — Britain usurped Sweden who were expected (by the betting markets) to come second to Ukraine.
    FPT - my point was that Ukraine were too short in the betting markets and it was cheap to lay them at 1/3 before the judges voting results came in, where they underperformed expectations.

    Sometimes you take a value loser and there's always a price that makes that worthwhile - would you have backed them even at 1.05, for example, before any votes came in?

    I didn't do this last night as I totally misread how the public votes worked on top of the judges - but I'd definitely consider doing it again on the basis that markets do overrreact, sometimes get it wrong and can be surprisingly slow to correct.
    I was flabbergasted* by your error last night. Anyone who has watched Eurovision in the last fifteen years knows that the final scores swing wildly in the last ten minutes. The public almost always trump the juries.

    (*but not as flabbergasted as I was by HYFUD’s Victorian ethno-gobbledegook. He was called a racist, and the epithet was justified.)
    In fairness to @Casino_Royale he is open about his bets and put his hands up and also is very good at separating out his own bias from the logical bet. Everyone one is capable of misreading stuff and if he had been right we would have all looked silly.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,178
    Heathener said:

    First, unlike Lord Frost at Tiverton or anywhere else.

    How about a dunces’ competition?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 9,627
    kjh said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I'd be interested to know how Stuart thinks the UK entry in Eurovision managed to come second.

    Worse than that — Britain usurped Sweden who were expected (by the betting markets) to come second to Ukraine.
    FPT - my point was that Ukraine were too short in the betting markets and it was cheap to lay them at 1/3 before the judges voting results came in, where they underperformed expectations.

    Sometimes you take a value loser and there's always a price that makes that worthwhile - would you have backed them even at 1.05, for example, before any votes came in?

    I didn't do this last night as I totally misread how the public votes worked on top of the judges - but I'd definitely consider doing it again on the basis that markets do overrreact, sometimes get it wrong and can be surprisingly slow to correct.
    I was flabbergasted* by your error last night. Anyone who has watched Eurovision in the last fifteen years knows that the final scores swing wildly in the last ten minutes. The public almost always trump the juries.

    (*but not as flabbergasted as I was by HYFUD’s Victorian ethno-gobbledegook. He was called a racist, and the epithet was justified.)
    In fairness to @Casino_Royale he is open about his bets and put his hands up and also is very good at separating out his own bias from the logical bet. Everyone one is capable of misreading stuff and if he had been right we would have all looked silly.
    Was it not you taking our resident phrenologist to task? Excellent fisking.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,178

    Michael Gove wants the Lords relocated to “other parts of the UK”. Wick, your day has come!

    Why doesn’t he set an example? Rockall is available.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,604
    edited May 15
    We saw with William and Kate's trip to the Caribbean that as soon as anything the Royal Family does is challenged widely enough as being laughable they and the wider establishment quickly fold and say "well yes it's time to drop that bit and modernise".

    Now we're told Charles wants to slim down the Royal Family. Nobody is saying "No, we need at least this many Royals, we can't manage with any fewer".

    Indeed in recent years Philip, Andrew, Harry, Meghan and the Queen to a large extent have all stopped doing Royal engagements with nobody replacing them to a significant degree. Have there been reports of a shortage of Royals, with nobody to do important engagements? No, stuff has just been dropped and nobody has noticed or cared.

    Next we have William apparently wanting to drop people bowing and curtsying. Again nobody is saying "No, we need to keep that, people should do it".

    The overall point is that it's one way traffic - everyone knows that everything that is being done is only being done because it always has been and very little if any of it makes any sense. Hence as soon as any individual bit is seriously challenged nobody attempts to defend it.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 46,113
    kjh said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I'd be interested to know how Stuart thinks the UK entry in Eurovision managed to come second.

    Worse than that — Britain usurped Sweden who were expected (by the betting markets) to come second to Ukraine.
    FPT - my point was that Ukraine were too short in the betting markets and it was cheap to lay them at 1/3 before the judges voting results came in, where they underperformed expectations.

    Sometimes you take a value loser and there's always a price that makes that worthwhile - would you have backed them even at 1.05, for example, before any votes came in?

    I didn't do this last night as I totally misread how the public votes worked on top of the judges - but I'd definitely consider doing it again on the basis that markets do overrreact, sometimes get it wrong and can be surprisingly slow to correct.
    I was flabbergasted* by your error last night. Anyone who has watched Eurovision in the last fifteen years knows that the final scores swing wildly in the last ten minutes. The public almost always trump the juries.

    (*but not as flabbergasted as I was by HYFUD’s Victorian ethno-gobbledegook. He was called a racist, and the epithet was justified.)
    In fairness to @Casino_Royale he is open about his bets and put his hands up and also is very good at separating out his own bias from the logical bet. Everyone one is capable of misreading stuff and if he had been right we would have all looked silly.
    Thanks.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,112
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. L, one might say that one of the reasons the monarchy here has remained is that it's been willing to adapt over time.

    Do you prefer a President Blair? Or a President Johnson?

    The question isn't "Is monarchy the perfect system?" or even "Does the monarchy make sense?" but "Is monarchy better than the alternative?"

    Compare the opinion of the politicians and royals. The latter tend to do rather better.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,080

    kjh said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I'd be interested to know how Stuart thinks the UK entry in Eurovision managed to come second.

    Worse than that — Britain usurped Sweden who were expected (by the betting markets) to come second to Ukraine.
    FPT - my point was that Ukraine were too short in the betting markets and it was cheap to lay them at 1/3 before the judges voting results came in, where they underperformed expectations.

    Sometimes you take a value loser and there's always a price that makes that worthwhile - would you have backed them even at 1.05, for example, before any votes came in?

    I didn't do this last night as I totally misread how the public votes worked on top of the judges - but I'd definitely consider doing it again on the basis that markets do overrreact, sometimes get it wrong and can be surprisingly slow to correct.
    I was flabbergasted* by your error last night. Anyone who has watched Eurovision in the last fifteen years knows that the final scores swing wildly in the last ten minutes. The public almost always trump the juries.

    (*but not as flabbergasted as I was by HYFUD’s Victorian ethno-gobbledegook. He was called a racist, and the epithet was justified.)
    In fairness to @Casino_Royale he is open about his bets and put his hands up and also is very good at separating out his own bias from the logical bet. Everyone one is capable of misreading stuff and if he had been right we would have all looked silly.
    Was it not you taking our resident phrenologist to task? Excellent fisking.
    Being of moderate IQ I had to look some of that up, but if I understand you correctly yes I was one of the team. Never heard of fisking before. You learn so much on PB.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,080
    edited May 15

    kjh said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I'd be interested to know how Stuart thinks the UK entry in Eurovision managed to come second.

    Worse than that — Britain usurped Sweden who were expected (by the betting markets) to come second to Ukraine.
    FPT - my point was that Ukraine were too short in the betting markets and it was cheap to lay them at 1/3 before the judges voting results came in, where they underperformed expectations.

    Sometimes you take a value loser and there's always a price that makes that worthwhile - would you have backed them even at 1.05, for example, before any votes came in?

    I didn't do this last night as I totally misread how the public votes worked on top of the judges - but I'd definitely consider doing it again on the basis that markets do overrreact, sometimes get it wrong and can be surprisingly slow to correct.
    I was flabbergasted* by your error last night. Anyone who has watched Eurovision in the last fifteen years knows that the final scores swing wildly in the last ten minutes. The public almost always trump the juries.

    (*but not as flabbergasted as I was by HYFUD’s Victorian ethno-gobbledegook. He was called a racist, and the epithet was justified.)
    In fairness to @Casino_Royale he is open about his bets and put his hands up and also is very good at separating out his own bias from the logical bet. Everyone one is capable of misreading stuff and if he had been right we would have all looked silly.
    Thanks.
    My pleasure. All I ask in return is a defence when I get a prediction wrong. You might be busy.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,522
    edited May 15

    Andy_JS said:

    I'd be interested to know how Stuart thinks the UK entry in Eurovision managed to come second.

    Worse than that — Britain usurped Sweden who were expected (by the betting markets) to come second to Ukraine.
    FPT - my point was that Ukraine were too short in the betting markets and it was cheap to lay them at 1/3 before the judges voting results came in, where they underperformed expectations.

    Sometimes you take a value loser and there's always a price that makes that worthwhile - would you have backed them even at 1.05, for example, before any votes came in?

    I didn't do this last night as I totally misread how the public votes worked on top of the judges - but I'd definitely consider doing it again on the basis that markets do overrreact, sometimes get it wrong and can be surprisingly slow to correct.
    Ukraine did not underperform expectations in the jury votes. If anything, they outperformed them. You would have been betting against someone who simply made a mistake.

    ETA it would have been rational to expect overreactions and to bet accordingly but not that particular one.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,620

    It is almost impossible to imagine a worse choice for Prime Minister than Boris Johnson, but David Frost could be it. A man of no achievement with a sub-mediocre mind with no political experience and no support base of any kind beyond the comment pages of the Telegraph would be an absolute disaster. Not even the Taliban Tories would be so stupid, would they?

    Matthew Syed in The Times today is a good read.

    I wonder if we can see some of the same patterns in Brexit or, more particularly, the version devised and campaigned for by those in the Vote Leave faction of the Conservative Party. Their hearts don’t seem to be in it any more. You can see it in their eyes, their shifty body language, their serial evasions when they are answering questions about the continuing hit to the British economy. Like a virus, cognitive dissonance is now endemic in the Tory party.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 9,627
    In my list of Eurovision success factors I omitted “cheesiness”. You have to get this just right (eg Moldova yesterday).

    IMHO this is where England gets the competition wrong most years.

    In fact, upon reflection, cheesiness probably trumps all the other factors I listed.

    Note that Ukraine’s win last night is supposedly the first time a rap song has won. That factoid may not be unimportant. Rap is very cheesy these days.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 9,627
    ydoethur said:

    Michael Gove wants the Lords relocated to “other parts of the UK”. Wick, your day has come!

    Why doesn’t he set an example? Rockall is available.
    Diego Garcia might be more humane. He’s more likely to find a local dealer for starters..
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,094
    I watched a little of Eurovision last night for the first time in ten years. I stopped watching a decade ago when the sausage man beat the Polish milkmaids. A complete travesty.

    I assumed Ukraine would win, but I enjoyed the Spanish entry. The UK entry was passable but I thought Sweden were best.

    It's a little like the search for Starmers successor. Which female entrant is most attractive?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 9,627

    Ukraine first, Britain second, France & Germany last. Who said Eurovision wasn’t political?

    People in glass houses.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,881
    So, do we get to host next year (assuming Ukraine won't be able to)?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,178

    ydoethur said:

    Michael Gove wants the Lords relocated to “other parts of the UK”. Wick, your day has come!

    Why doesn’t he set an example? Rockall is available.
    Diego Garcia might be more humane. He’s more likely to find a local dealer for starters..
    Why? What has Diego Garcia ever done to you?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 9,627

    So, do we get to host next year (assuming Ukraine won't be able to)?

    In Wick.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,522

    Andy_JS said:

    I'd be interested to know how Stuart thinks the UK entry in Eurovision managed to come second.

    Worse than that — Britain usurped Sweden who were expected (by the betting markets) to come second to Ukraine.
    FPT - my point was that Ukraine were too short in the betting markets and it was cheap to lay them at 1/3 before the judges voting results came in, where they underperformed expectations.

    Sometimes you take a value loser and there's always a price that makes that worthwhile - would you have backed them even at 1.05, for example, before any votes came in?

    I didn't do this last night as I totally misread how the public votes worked on top of the judges - but I'd definitely consider doing it again on the basis that markets do overrreact, sometimes get it wrong and can be surprisingly slow to correct.
    Ukraine did not underperform expectations in the jury votes. If anything, they outperformed them. You would have been betting against someone who simply made a mistake.

    ETA it would have been rational to expect overreactions and to bet accordingly but not that particular one.
    Forget Eurovision. Consider football. It is well known that punters, and hence the odds, overreact when a goal is scored. The time to step in is immediately this happens, not some time earlier in the hope it will happen.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 36,885
    By mistake I pressed a user name and it came up as user profile private you cannot view. Given there is nothing in your profile why would you make it private and how is it done. Curious.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,522
    malcolmg said:

    By mistake I pressed a user name and it came up as user profile private you cannot view. Given there is nothing in your profile why would you make it private and how is it done. Curious.

    Click on your own name, then go to the menu on the right and it is an option there. As to why, who knows?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,112
    We came second in Eurovision?

    ....

    That's weird.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 44,983

    Andy_JS said:

    I'd be interested to know how Stuart thinks the UK entry in Eurovision managed to come second.

    Worse than that — Britain usurped Sweden who were expected (by the betting markets) to come second to Ukraine.
    We’re all delighted with how Cornelia performed. I missed her last night, but I saw her in Melodifestivalen, which is the tv event of the year here. It is an error to worry too much about comparing yourself to others. One ought to be pleased that you put up the best performance that you could, and I think we did.

    On the betting markets, I’m not sure you’re correct. I’m pretty sure the UK was in 2nd place, certainly in the last few weeks. I’m sure stats are available somewhere.

    In contrast to the slander on here, I am in fact an Anglophile, so well done to the lad! And well done to Ukraine!
    The Swedish entry was greatly overrated.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 22,749
    Spot the difference

    https://twitter.com/curaffairs/status/1525611272007565318?t=s7YGBQfb3jDt6_rdqXpV1Q&s=19

    Which one is the writing of a white supremacist and which one is Tucker Carlson?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 36,885

    malcolmg said:

    By mistake I pressed a user name and it came up as user profile private you cannot view. Given there is nothing in your profile why would you make it private and how is it done. Curious.

    Click on your own name, then go to the menu on the right and it is an option there. As to why, who knows?
    Cheers, seems very bizarre to me given about only thing it could do is prevent people contacting you and that is anonymous in any event.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 9,068
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Michael Gove wants the Lords relocated to “other parts of the UK”. Wick, your day has come!

    Why doesn’t he set an example? Rockall is available.
    Diego Garcia might be more humane. He’s more likely to find a local dealer for starters..
    Why? What has Diego Garcia ever done to you?
    Don't you remember the 1986 World Cup?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 44,983

    So, do we get to host next year (assuming Ukraine won't be able to)?

    But the decision won't be taken until Russia lobs a few missiles into Kyiv in March. Meaning we have damn all time to put on anything more than a crap disaster - one that makes the Irish "My Lovely Horse" Eurovision look really quite sophisticated.....
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,881
    Unless 18-24 year-olds change their minds, the monarchy may well be coming to an end within the next 50 years.
    https://twitter.com/sundersays/status/1525732004515430402
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 14,615

    Unless 18-24 year-olds change their minds, the monarchy may well be coming to an end within the next 50 years.
    https://twitter.com/sundersays/status/1525732004515430402

    You are assuming the AI will still allow us a vote on such things.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,178

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Michael Gove wants the Lords relocated to “other parts of the UK”. Wick, your day has come!

    Why doesn’t he set an example? Rockall is available.
    Diego Garcia might be more humane. He’s more likely to find a local dealer for starters..
    Why? What has Diego Garcia ever done to you?
    Don't you remember the 1986 World Cup?
    It was in 1987 and David Boon was from Tasmania not Diego Garcia.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,112
    Mr. Observer, fortunate that the young tend to change as they grow old.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 14,615
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Michael Gove wants the Lords relocated to “other parts of the UK”. Wick, your day has come!

    Why doesn’t he set an example? Rockall is available.
    Diego Garcia might be more humane. He’s more likely to find a local dealer for starters..
    Why? What has Diego Garcia ever done to you?
    Don't you remember the 1986 World Cup?
    It was in 1987 and David Boon was from Tasmania not Diego Garcia.
    52 beers Sydney to London!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,814
    edited May 15
    Good morning

    On topic, Frost is the last person the conservative party need as a leader at this time of great insensitivity over NIP, actually that should read at 'anytime'

    On the monarchy, the queen has been the glue that has held it together over 7 decades but that is coming to an end and the monarchy with it's archaic traditions will have to go through colossal change to make itself relevant to modern day UK

    Deference in all its forms should be abolished, as should all the parading around in military uniforms with lots of meaningless medals on display.

    At the state opening of Parliament, Charles looked and sounded like a very old man and he is not the future

    I do believe William and Kate understand just how rapidly this change is coming and I expect in fairly quick time we will see a much reduced monarchy no longer touring with great pomp and ceremony the commonwealth countries, nor any more bowing or walking backwards in deference, and the end of ridiculous military dressing up

    I do believe most would accept a less formal, more modern monarchy, as I cannot see many wanting a republic with a President Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, Nadine Dories, JRM or ANO
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,881

    Mr. Observer, fortunate that the young tend to change as they grow old.

    On some things they do, but if they don't feel they have a stake in this society, why would they support its pillars?

  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 6,482

    It is almost impossible to imagine a worse choice for Prime Minister than Boris Johnson, but David Frost could be it. A man of no achievement with a sub-mediocre mind with no political experience and no support base of any kind beyond the comment pages of the Telegraph would be an absolute disaster. Not even the Taliban Tories would be so stupid, would they?

    Well...

    Frostie not only has a Marshall's Baton in his knapsack, but he's happy to get it out and give it a wave.

    He is also the highest profile active politician who tells Brexit Backers in the country what they want to hear- that precious Brexit is being stabbed in the back by cowards and weaklings.

    What saves us all is that not even this governing party can contemplate a PM from the Lords. His best chance of a Commons place was under the radar in 2019.

    As with Andy Burnham in the other side, he may want it, many may want it to happen, but he's fluffed the eligibility. (And I wonder if, in both cases, that reveals something bad about not being willing to do the necessary hard yards.)

    And in both cases, that's probably for the best.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 24,113
    edited May 15

    Good morning

    On topic, Frost is the last person the conservative party need as a leader at this time of great insensitivity over NIP, actually that should read at 'anytime'

    On the monarchy, the queen has been the glue that has held it together over 7 decades but that is coming to an end and the monarchy with it's archaic traditions will have to go through colossal change to make itself relevant to modern day UK

    Deference in all its forms should be abolished, as should all the parading around in military uniforms with lots of meaningless medals on display.

    At the state opening of Parliament, Charles looked and sounded like a very old man and he is not the future

    I do believe William and Kate understand just how rapidly this change is coming and I expect in fairly quick time we will see a much reduced monarchy no longer touring with great pomp and ceremony the commonwealth countries, nor any more bowing or walking backwards in deference, and the end of ridiculous military dressing up

    I do believe most would accept a less formal, more modern monarchy, as I cannot see many wanting a republic with a President Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, Nadine Dories, JRM or ANO

    Good grief, that's positively radical.

    "Deaference ... should be abolished." That'll upset some on PB. And no mention of Divine Right of Kings, even. Or the C of E.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,394

    So, do we get to host next year (assuming Ukraine won't be able to)?

    I’d have thought Poland would be the obvious place to host it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,178

    Good morning

    On topic, Frost is the last person the conservative party need as a leader at this time of great insensitivity over NIP, actually that should read at 'anytime'

    I think actually it should read 'would be the last leader the Conservative party would have.'
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,814
    Carnyx said:

    Good morning

    On topic, Frost is the last person the conservative party need as a leader at this time of great insensitivity over NIP, actually that should read at 'anytime'

    On the monarchy, the queen has been the glue that has held it together over 7 decades but that is coming to an end and the monarchy with it's archaic traditions will have to go through colossal change to make itself relevant to modern day UK

    Deference in all its forms should be abolished, as should all the parading around in military uniforms with lots of meaningless medals on display.

    At the state opening of Parliament, Charles looked and sounded like a very old man and he is not the future

    I do believe William and Kate understand just how rapidly this change is coming and I expect in fairly quick time we will see a much reduced monarchy no longer touring with great pomp and ceremony the commonwealth countries, nor any more bowing or walking backwards in deference, and the end of ridiculous military dressing up

    I do believe most would accept a less formal, more modern monarchy, as I cannot see many wanting a republic with a President Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, Nadine Dories, JRM or ANO

    Good grief, that's positively radical.

    "Deaference ... should be abolished." That'll upset some on PB. And no mention of Divine Right of Kings, even. Or the C of E.
    I have long had antipathy towards the monarchy but over the years I have grown to respect and admire HMQ but those days are over as society moves with the times and, as with many things you can resist change and become irrelevant, or accept change and lead it to a new positive future
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,881

    Good morning

    On topic, Frost is the last person the conservative party need as a leader at this time of great insensitivity over NIP, actually that should read at 'anytime'

    On the monarchy, the queen has been the glue that has held it together over 7 decades but that is coming to an end and the monarchy with it's archaic traditions will have to go through colossal change to make itself relevant to modern day UK

    Deference in all its forms should be abolished, as should all the parading around in military uniforms with lots of meaningless medals on display.

    At the state opening of Parliament, Charles looked and sounded like a very old man and he is not the future

    I do believe William and Kate understand just how rapidly this change is coming and I expect in fairly quick time we will see a much reduced monarchy no longer touring with great pomp and ceremony the commonwealth countries, nor any more bowing or walking backwards in deference, and the end of ridiculous military dressing up

    I do believe most would accept a less formal, more modern monarchy, as I cannot see many wanting a republic with a President Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, Nadine Dories, JRM or ANO

    Alternatively, we could end up with a President Zelensky.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,748

    It is almost impossible to imagine a worse choice for Prime Minister than Boris Johnson, but David Frost could be it. A man of no achievement with a sub-mediocre mind with no political experience and no support base of any kind beyond the comment pages of the Telegraph would be an absolute disaster. Not even the Taliban Tories would be so stupid, would they?

    "It is almost impossible to imagine a worse choice for Prime Minister than Boris Johnson"

    It is far, far from impossible. Labour's candidate for the 2019 GE is an example: particularly given the two crises that have faced the country since then. Corbyn would have been disastrous with both the Covid crisis and the Ukrainian War. The former we did not do too badly at, nor well; but on the latter we've done very well indeed IMO.

    And we came very near having PM Corbyn during both of these.

    I'd hope both parties consider this and try to get leaders who are more competent than Johnson or Corbyn.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,112
    Mr. Observer, whether they have a stake or not will also change.

    (Although that is a problem for today. Ironic to hear it from the left, though, given all the debt the nation and students have been saddled with due to tuition fees and the collapse of Brown's financial oversight and ensuing crisis).
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 24,113

    It is almost impossible to imagine a worse choice for Prime Minister than Boris Johnson, but David Frost could be it. A man of no achievement with a sub-mediocre mind with no political experience and no support base of any kind beyond the comment pages of the Telegraph would be an absolute disaster. Not even the Taliban Tories would be so stupid, would they?

    Well...

    Frostie not only has a Marshall's Baton in his knapsack, but he's happy to get it out and give it a wave.

    He is also the highest profile active politician who tells Brexit Backers in the country what they want to hear- that precious Brexit is being stabbed in the back by cowards and weaklings.

    What saves us all is that not even this governing party can contemplate a PM from the Lords. His best chance of a Commons place was under the radar in 2019.

    As with Andy Burnham in the other side, he may want it, many may want it to happen, but he's fluffed the eligibility. (And I wonder if, in both cases, that reveals something bad about not being willing to do the necessary hard yards.)

    And in both cases, that's probably for the best.
    Sure it's the knapsack?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,080

    Mr. Observer, fortunate that the young tend to change as they grow old.

    Oddly in my case I became more radical and less conservative with age, but then I always have been awkward.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 8,731
    Heathener said:

    First, unlike Lord Frost at Tiverton or anywhere else.

    You're right TSE.

    And well done for the win yesterday. I see the Mail on Sunday are outraged at the booing of Prince William and jeering during Abide with Me & God Save the Queen. Tory MP and former Culture Secretary Karen Bradley said: 'It is utterly unacceptable and disgraceful that fans booed Prince William. I would urge the FA to take all necessary action and pursue those responsible.'

    Last time I checked the UK was still a free country. If people wish to boo, or demonstrate, they should be free to. The Nasty Party thinks not.

    They are, of course, free to boo if they choose. Others are also free to be outraged and disgusted.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,881

    It is almost impossible to imagine a worse choice for Prime Minister than Boris Johnson, but David Frost could be it. A man of no achievement with a sub-mediocre mind with no political experience and no support base of any kind beyond the comment pages of the Telegraph would be an absolute disaster. Not even the Taliban Tories would be so stupid, would they?

    "It is almost impossible to imagine a worse choice for Prime Minister than Boris Johnson"

    It is far, far from impossible. Labour's candidate for the 2019 GE is an example: particularly given the two crises that have faced the country since then. Corbyn would have been disastrous with both the Covid crisis and the Ukrainian War. The former we did not do too badly at, nor well; but on the latter we've done very well indeed IMO.

    And we came very near having PM Corbyn during both of these.

    I'd hope both parties consider this and try to get leaders who are more competent than Johnson or Corbyn.

    I always thought that Johnson was the better choice than Corbyn, but now I am not so sure. Labour MPs at least sought to remove Corbyn and would have had a lot of control over him if he had got into office. I am not sure they would have played along with him undoing the UK's democracy in the way that Tory MPs have allowed Johnson to do.

    I suspect that Corbyn's handling of Covid would have produced similar overall results to Johnson's. And Ukraine would have seen him toppled.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 24,113

    Heathener said:

    First, unlike Lord Frost at Tiverton or anywhere else.

    You're right TSE.

    And well done for the win yesterday. I see the Mail on Sunday are outraged at the booing of Prince William and jeering during Abide with Me & God Save the Queen. Tory MP and former Culture Secretary Karen Bradley said: 'It is utterly unacceptable and disgraceful that fans booed Prince William. I would urge the FA to take all necessary action and pursue those responsible.'

    Last time I checked the UK was still a free country. If people wish to boo, or demonstrate, they should be free to. The Nasty Party thinks not.

    They are, of course, free to boo if they choose. Others are also free to be outraged and disgusted.
    But surely not to hound etc.

    In any case, I was not aware that the FA is an organization best known for lifting a finger in terms of encouraging the seemly and polite behaviour of its customers in public.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,881

    Mr. Observer, whether they have a stake or not will also change.

    (Although that is a problem for today. Ironic to hear it from the left, though, given all the debt the nation and students have been saddled with due to tuition fees and the collapse of Brown's financial oversight and ensuing crisis).

    The left has not been in power for the last 12 years. It would be interesting to see how support for the monarchy has developed - or not - in the time since 2012.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 41,202
    Buffalo shooting: 10 killed in ‘racially motivated’ attack at New York supermarket, police say
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/may/14/buffalo-shooting-supermarket-new-york
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,112
    Mr. kjh, there's always one :p

  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 9,596

    Heathener said:

    First, unlike Lord Frost at Tiverton or anywhere else.

    You're right TSE.

    And well done for the win yesterday. I see the Mail on Sunday are outraged at the booing of Prince William and jeering during Abide with Me & God Save the Queen. Tory MP and former Culture Secretary Karen Bradley said: 'It is utterly unacceptable and disgraceful that fans booed Prince William. I would urge the FA to take all necessary action and pursue those responsible.'

    Last time I checked the UK was still a free country. If people wish to boo, or demonstrate, they should be free to. The Nasty Party thinks not.

    They are, of course, free to boo if they choose. Others are also free to be outraged and disgusted.
    They were shouting Boo-urns.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 8,731

    In my list of Eurovision success factors I omitted “cheesiness”. You have to get this just right (eg Moldova yesterday).

    IMHO this is where England gets the competition wrong most years.

    In fact, upon reflection, cheesiness probably trumps all the other factors I listed.

    Note that Ukraine’s win last night is supposedly the first time a rap song has won. That factoid may not be unimportant. Rap is very cheesy these days.

    What English entry? We compete as U.K.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 24,113

    Carnyx said:

    Good morning

    On topic, Frost is the last person the conservative party need as a leader at this time of great insensitivity over NIP, actually that should read at 'anytime'

    On the monarchy, the queen has been the glue that has held it together over 7 decades but that is coming to an end and the monarchy with it's archaic traditions will have to go through colossal change to make itself relevant to modern day UK

    Deference in all its forms should be abolished, as should all the parading around in military uniforms with lots of meaningless medals on display.

    At the state opening of Parliament, Charles looked and sounded like a very old man and he is not the future

    I do believe William and Kate understand just how rapidly this change is coming and I expect in fairly quick time we will see a much reduced monarchy no longer touring with great pomp and ceremony the commonwealth countries, nor any more bowing or walking backwards in deference, and the end of ridiculous military dressing up

    I do believe most would accept a less formal, more modern monarchy, as I cannot see many wanting a republic with a President Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, Nadine Dories, JRM or ANO

    Good grief, that's positively radical.

    "Deaference ... should be abolished." That'll upset some on PB. And no mention of Divine Right of Kings, even. Or the C of E.
    I have long had antipathy towards the monarchy but over the years I have grown to respect and admire HMQ but those days are over as society moves with the times and, as with many things you can resist change and become irrelevant, or accept change and lead it to a new positive future
    TBF I have a happy memory of the late DoE coming round our establishment once and seeing a display from our dept. Head management had insisted that only a very few senior staff were to be introduced - the techs were to stay in the background anonymously. Did not go down too well. In the event, PtG not only refused to have anything to do with this bollocks and insisted on shaking hands with everyone, but then got into an argument with my colleague about some point in the display.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 22,721
    edited May 15
    Interesting stuff re Monarchy.
    The deference has gone already I feel. As has much of the overt fawning.
    We are now three weeks from the Jubilee.
    I don't see a single decoration or sign that it is taking place anywhere.
    I may have been a kid then, but ISTR the 1977 one and the wedding of Charles and Di being front and centre of the Nation's activity for months beforehand.
    Meanwhile. Yet another mass shooting in America. Racially motivated by a teenager. So commonplace it passes without comment.
    Deep sighs.

    Edit. I see it was linked to as I typed that.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 8,731

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Michael Gove wants the Lords relocated to “other parts of the UK”. Wick, your day has come!

    Why doesn’t he set an example? Rockall is available.
    Diego Garcia might be more humane. He’s more likely to find a local dealer for starters..
    Why? What has Diego Garcia ever done to you?
    Don't you remember the 1986 World Cup?
    It was in 1987 and David Boon was from Tasmania not Diego Garcia.
    52 beers Sydney to London!
    This was a huge number to be sure, but pretty confident it was not 52 pints, rather small tinnies, unless anyone knows different?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,405

    It is almost impossible to imagine a worse choice for Prime Minister than Boris Johnson, but David Frost could be it. A man of no achievement with a sub-mediocre mind with no political experience and no support base of any kind beyond the comment pages of the Telegraph would be an absolute disaster. Not even the Taliban Tories would be so stupid, would they?

    "It is almost impossible to imagine a worse choice for Prime Minister than Boris Johnson"

    It is far, far from impossible. Labour's candidate for the 2019 GE is an example: particularly given the two crises that have faced the country since then. Corbyn would have been disastrous with both the Covid crisis and the Ukrainian War. The former we did not do too badly at, nor well; but on the latter we've done very well indeed IMO.

    And we came very near having PM Corbyn during both of these.

    I'd hope both parties consider this and try to get leaders who are more competent than Johnson or Corbyn.

    I always thought that Johnson was the better choice than Corbyn, but now I am not so sure. Labour MPs at least sought to remove Corbyn and would have had a lot of control over him if he had got into office. I am not sure they would have played along with him undoing the UK's democracy in the way that Tory MPs have allowed Johnson to do.

    I suspect that Corbyn's handling of Covid would have produced similar overall results to Johnson's. And Ukraine would have seen him toppled.

    The spin that Johnson was a safe choice to see if an extremist was always absurd. Johnson was and remains dodgy and dangerous. Corbyn would have been ripped to shreds if got close to saying half the mad things Boris has actually done.


  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 9,627
    Russia has lost one third of its entire forces on the ground in Ukraine. Ouch!!
  • TazTaz Posts: 5,353
    dixiedean said:

    Interesting stuff re Monarchy.
    The deference has gone already I feel. As has much of the overt fawning.
    We are now three weeks from the Jubilee.
    I don't see a single decoration or sign that it is taking place anywhere.
    I may have been a kid then, but ISTR the 1977 one and the wedding of Charles and Di being front and centre of the Nation's activity for months beforehand.
    Meanwhile. Yet another mass shooting in America. Racially motivated by a teenager. So commonplace it passes without comment.
    Deep sighs.

    Edit. I see it was linked to as I typed that.

    The only decorations or signs I have seen have been in local pubs trying to get some trade off the back of it.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,256
    edited May 15

    Andy_JS said:

    I'd be interested to know how Stuart thinks the UK entry in Eurovision managed to come second.

    Worse than that — Britain usurped Sweden who were expected (by the betting markets) to come second to Ukraine.
    FPT - my point was that Ukraine were too short in the betting markets and it was cheap to lay them at 1/3 before the judges voting results came in, where they underperformed expectations.

    Sometimes you take a value loser and there's always a price that makes that worthwhile - would you have backed them even at 1.05, for example, before any votes came in?

    I didn't do this last night as I totally misread how the public votes worked on top of the judges - but I'd definitely consider doing it again on the basis that markets do overrreact, sometimes get it wrong and can be surprisingly slow to correct.
    Ukraine did not underperform expectations in the jury votes. If anything, they outperformed them. You would have been betting against someone who simply made a mistake.

    ETA it would have been rational to expect overreactions and to bet accordingly but not that particular one.
    Like CR I was scratching my head when Ukraine weren't in the lead after the jury votes. I had figured that it would be the jury votes which would win it for them rather than the public votes - but I got that backwards. Overall, I knew they would win after I heard the song - they had the sympathy/solidarity appeal of course but also the song was a good Eurovision song. So I didn't lay them on the night and was neutral overall.

    Trying to predict what the public will do reminds me of Big Brother, the Series One of which was a very profitable betting event for me on the spreads.

    As it happened I did very nicely last night (£100+). I was lucky though. I backed Norway to get in top ten (they came 10th) and Serbia to get in top five (they came 5th). In running, was backing UK to win w/o Ukraine and laying Sweden in same market. Those bets just came in too.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 100,923
    Lord Frost would be a perfectly capable PM however I highly doubt he could give up a seat in the Lords to fight a by election he might well lose to the Liberal Democrats for a miniscule chance of PM for which there is currently no vacancy and won't be on the Tory side unless the PM resigns or is removed by a VONC
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,814
    HYUFD said:

    Lord Frost would be a perfectly capable PM however I highly doubt he could give up a seat in the Lords to fight a by election he might well lose to the Liberal Democrats for a miniscule chance of PM for which there is currently no vacancy and won't be on the Tory side unless the PM resigns or is removed by a VONC

    He is the last person the conservative party need just now
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 24,113
    HYUFD said:

    Lord Frost would be a perfectly capable PM however I highly doubt he could give up a seat in the Lords to fight a by election he might well lose to the Liberal Democrats for a miniscule chance of PM for which there is currently no vacancy and won't be on the Tory side unless the PM resigns or is removed by a VONC

    Does a peer have to resign before fighting an election to the HoC? Or can he see what happens first?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,881
    dixiedean said:

    Interesting stuff re Monarchy.
    The deference has gone already I feel. As has much of the overt fawning.
    We are now three weeks from the Jubilee.
    I don't see a single decoration or sign that it is taking place anywhere.
    I may have been a kid then, but ISTR the 1977 one and the wedding of Charles and Di being front and centre of the Nation's activity for months beforehand.
    Meanwhile. Yet another mass shooting in America. Racially motivated by a teenager. So commonplace it passes without comment.
    Deep sighs.

    Edit. I see it was linked to as I typed that.

    We will get a much better understanding of the monarchy's place in the great scheme of things once the Queen is no longer with us. She does unite the vast majority of us. Down here in Sidmouth there are plans for a street party and celebrations, but it is noticeable (and understandable) how backward looking and nostalgic they are. The monarchy has a lot to tell us about our past. Its big challenge is to be part of our future. Saying its better than President Johnson or Blair does not really cut the mustard, because it doesn't have to be President Johnson or Blair instead of King William.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,405

    HYUFD said:

    Lord Frost would be a perfectly capable PM however I highly doubt he could give up a seat in the Lords to fight a by election he might well lose to the Liberal Democrats for a miniscule chance of PM for which there is currently no vacancy and won't be on the Tory side unless the PM resigns or is removed by a VONC

    He is the last person the conservative party need just now
    You prefer Mogg, Rishi and the tractor guy?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 41,202
    dixiedean said:

    Interesting stuff re Monarchy.
    The deference has gone already I feel. As has much of the overt fawning.
    We are now three weeks from the Jubilee.
    I don't see a single decoration or sign that it is taking place anywhere.
    I may have been a kid then, but ISTR the 1977 one and the wedding of Charles and Di being front and centre of the Nation's activity for months beforehand.
    Meanwhile. Yet another mass shooting in America. Racially motivated by a teenager. So commonplace it passes without comment.
    Deep sighs.

    Edit. I see it was linked to as I typed that.

    I think this shit will get a lot more political attention in time. It’s not greatly different in kind from the terrorism of ISIS or Al Qaeda, and if they were conducting mass killings in the US on such a scale, then it would get a response.

    https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/05/14/nyregion/buffalo-shooting?smid=url-copy#the-accused-gunmans-racist-manifesto-outlined-a-plan-to-kill-blacks-and-referred-to-replacement-theory
    … Through the 180 pages of hate-filled writings that Payton S. Gendron posted online, a common theme emerged: The notion that white Americans are at risk of being replaced by people of color.

    Gunmen have referenced the racist idea, known as “replacement theory,” during a string of mass shootings and other violence in recent years. It was once associated with the far-right fringe, but has become increasingly mainstream, pushed by politicians and popular television programs...
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 9,627

    In my list of Eurovision success factors I omitted “cheesiness”. You have to get this just right (eg Moldova yesterday).

    IMHO this is where England gets the competition wrong most years.

    In fact, upon reflection, cheesiness probably trumps all the other factors I listed.

    Note that Ukraine’s win last night is supposedly the first time a rap song has won. That factoid may not be unimportant. Rap is very cheesy these days.

    What English entry? We compete as U.K.
    Branding as dodgy as HP sauce.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 24,113
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Lord Frost would be a perfectly capable PM however I highly doubt he could give up a seat in the Lords to fight a by election he might well lose to the Liberal Democrats for a miniscule chance of PM for which there is currently no vacancy and won't be on the Tory side unless the PM resigns or is removed by a VONC

    He is the last person the conservative party need just now
    You prefer Mogg, Rishi and the tractor guy?
    They are already in the HoC, so count as part of the Other Tory PMs Are Available rubric, even Mr Tractor.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,881
    Jonathan said:

    It is almost impossible to imagine a worse choice for Prime Minister than Boris Johnson, but David Frost could be it. A man of no achievement with a sub-mediocre mind with no political experience and no support base of any kind beyond the comment pages of the Telegraph would be an absolute disaster. Not even the Taliban Tories would be so stupid, would they?

    "It is almost impossible to imagine a worse choice for Prime Minister than Boris Johnson"

    It is far, far from impossible. Labour's candidate for the 2019 GE is an example: particularly given the two crises that have faced the country since then. Corbyn would have been disastrous with both the Covid crisis and the Ukrainian War. The former we did not do too badly at, nor well; but on the latter we've done very well indeed IMO.

    And we came very near having PM Corbyn during both of these.

    I'd hope both parties consider this and try to get leaders who are more competent than Johnson or Corbyn.

    I always thought that Johnson was the better choice than Corbyn, but now I am not so sure. Labour MPs at least sought to remove Corbyn and would have had a lot of control over him if he had got into office. I am not sure they would have played along with him undoing the UK's democracy in the way that Tory MPs have allowed Johnson to do.

    I suspect that Corbyn's handling of Covid would have produced similar overall results to Johnson's. And Ukraine would have seen him toppled.

    The spin that Johnson was a safe choice to see if an extremist was always absurd. Johnson was and remains dodgy and dangerous. Corbyn would have been ripped to shreds if got close to saying half the mad things Boris has actually done.

    It's very hard to imagine Corbyn being allowed to have inflicted the harm that Johnson has. I don't think he would have lasted six months as PM. But it was still unforgiveable of the Labour party to have put him in front of the electorate against Johnson.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 41,202
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Lord Frost would be a perfectly capable PM however I highly doubt he could give up a seat in the Lords to fight a by election he might well lose to the Liberal Democrats for a miniscule chance of PM for which there is currently no vacancy and won't be on the Tory side unless the PM resigns or is removed by a VONC

    He is the last person the conservative party need just now
    You prefer Mogg, Rishi and the tractor guy?
    There are a lot of Tories vying for last place.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 100,923
    Heathener said:

    The funny thing about the Mail's reactionary outrage is that it will make it more of a 'thing' to boo the royals.

    They really do shoot themselves in the foot.

    I find it interesting though. I'm not sure I would boo William but I get this sense at the moment that reminds me so much of 1992-7. During that time there was this same reactionary 'Back to Basics' guff and outrage from the right wing press. The same Nasty Party rearing its ugly head. But all the while the country was getting ready to move on.

    Times they are a changing.

    No it doesn't at all, just shows the fact that Liverpool is the most socialist city in the UK after Glasgow and does not have a single Tory MP. Indeed every MP in Liverpool is Labour and there are no Tory councillors in Liverpool either despite the Tory landslide in the rest of the UK in 2019
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 22,721

    HYUFD said:

    Lord Frost would be a perfectly capable PM however I highly doubt he could give up a seat in the Lords to fight a by election he might well lose to the Liberal Democrats for a miniscule chance of PM for which there is currently no vacancy and won't be on the Tory side unless the PM resigns or is removed by a VONC

    He is the last person the conservative party need just now
    Chris Chope is still around.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,748

    It is almost impossible to imagine a worse choice for Prime Minister than Boris Johnson, but David Frost could be it. A man of no achievement with a sub-mediocre mind with no political experience and no support base of any kind beyond the comment pages of the Telegraph would be an absolute disaster. Not even the Taliban Tories would be so stupid, would they?

    "It is almost impossible to imagine a worse choice for Prime Minister than Boris Johnson"

    It is far, far from impossible. Labour's candidate for the 2019 GE is an example: particularly given the two crises that have faced the country since then. Corbyn would have been disastrous with both the Covid crisis and the Ukrainian War. The former we did not do too badly at, nor well; but on the latter we've done very well indeed IMO.

    And we came very near having PM Corbyn during both of these.

    I'd hope both parties consider this and try to get leaders who are more competent than Johnson or Corbyn.

    I always thought that Johnson was the better choice than Corbyn, but now I am not so sure. Labour MPs at least sought to remove Corbyn and would have had a lot of control over him if he had got into office. I am not sure they would have played along with him undoing the UK's democracy in the way that Tory MPs have allowed Johnson to do.

    I suspect that Corbyn's handling of Covid would have produced similar overall results to Johnson's. And Ukraine would have seen him toppled.

    "I suspect that Corbyn's handling of Covid would have produced similar overall results to Johnson's. "

    Why do you suspect that? He has refused to say if he has been vaccinated. It was vital for politicians to encourage as many people as possible to get vaccinated, which was why we saw politicians publicising getting vaccinated once it was their turn. Corbyn sadly has quite a following in a demographic where (AIUI) vaccination rates are lower, and his unequivocally saying that he had been vaccinated would have helped.

    I'm also unsure how well he would have tackled vaccine procurement, given the inclusion of big pharma (boo, hiss).

    "And Ukraine would have seen him toppled."

    Which would have been too late to help Ukraine.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,814
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Lord Frost would be a perfectly capable PM however I highly doubt he could give up a seat in the Lords to fight a by election he might well lose to the Liberal Democrats for a miniscule chance of PM for which there is currently no vacancy and won't be on the Tory side unless the PM resigns or is removed by a VONC

    He is the last person the conservative party need just now
    Chris Chope is still around.
    He is standing down at GE24
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,405
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Lord Frost would be a perfectly capable PM however I highly doubt he could give up a seat in the Lords to fight a by election he might well lose to the Liberal Democrats for a miniscule chance of PM for which there is currently no vacancy and won't be on the Tory side unless the PM resigns or is removed by a VONC

    He is the last person the conservative party need just now
    Chris Chope is still around.
    BigG is rather hoping Corbyn or Farage steps up to lead the Tories.
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