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Hunt makes a leadership move that he says is not a move – politicalbetting.com
Hunt makes a leadership move that he says is not a move – politicalbetting.com
The main story on the front page of The Times this morning is a piece about Jeremy Hunt who was the health secretary in Theresa May’s government and of course, was the one who reached the final two in the leadership election 3 years ago.
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I don’t think it is “mid-term Blues”. If BJ leads his party into the GE (and I think he will), then he will lead them into defeat.
He's got his name in ahead of the other contenders without burning any bridges. And the rest are gagged by being in the cabinet.
Any Tory with sense knows that Boris has to go well before the next election.
Though that's very far from a majority of the party.
'Decades' is just Macron being Macron.
Although not a “coalition”, which Anas Sarwar has forbidden, it is going to be merrily portrayed as such to the general public. Sometimes one wonders if the Scottish Labour Party has a death wish.
Result 2022 - North Lanarkshire
Scottish National Party 36 councillors (+3)
Labour 32 councillors (nc)
Conservative and Unionist Party 5 councillors (-5)
British Unionist Party* 1 councillor (+1)
Greens 1 councillor (+1)
Independents 2 (nc)
39 needed for a majority and Lab+Con+BUP is only 38, so they need at least one Independent too.
(*The BUP seem rather keen on abolishing Holyrood and going back to Direct Rule from London. An uncommon position these days, but polling suggests that perhaps up to 10% of the electorate want this. Sufficient base on which to build a new party? No, probably not.)
Macron: "For Ukraine to join will take dickheads to agree. There's me, Olaf Scholz, Viktor Orban..."
If anyone out there is privy to important information then feel free and utilise those generous prices. But ordinary punters beware: if you are not in the know then keep well away from this type of market. (Judging by the idiotic Next Labour Leader market, my advice is comprehensively ignored.)
According to the Corruption Perceptions Index, Ukraine is #122 in the world, and Russia #136.
That is not good. Bur Ukraine has had two decades of Russian interference with its politics, and now militarily: it has not been fully free from interference.
IMV Russia is the problem, not Ukraine. If Ukraine is 'free' after this war is over, the country can go two ways: it could continue being a corrupt state, or it could embrace openness and fight corruption.
There will be significant carrots for them to do the latter - especially if reconstruction funds are contingent on it. In addition, there will hopefully be a situation where Russians methods of doing things are rejected in favour of more western ways.
But I reckon the Ukrainian people want it as well - Zelensky was elected on a platform of anti-corruption.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corruption_Perceptions_Index
Unless things change drastically the LibDems will win South West Surrey from the tories. Dominic Raab will also lose his seat.
**** BETTING POST *****
Bet on Jeremy Hunt with great caution. He won't be a Member of Parliament after the next election. I am certain the LibDems will win Surrey South West.
p.s. Hunt's majority last time was 8,817 but that already came on the back of a 15.6% swing from Cons to LibDem. The LibDems are making HUGE inroads into Surrey, gathering eye-catching momentum since 2019.
I am certain the Cons are going to lose Surrey South West. There are other seats in Surrey and SW London which are vulnerable as well. The blue wall is not holding. The yellows are advancing.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_West_Surrey_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s
I still think there's a massive yellow move in Surrey. I live here and it's really noticeable. Never seen anything like it. So, notwithstanding the boost, I reckon the LibDems will still take his seat.
Europe proposes tackling child abuse by killing privacy, strong encryption
https://www.theregister.com/2022/05/12/eu_encryption_csam/
Meanwhile, encryption is applauded for helping Ukraine against Russia.
one of the lesser known features of SpaceX's Starlink internet service, point to point email service for Starlink users encrypted and not using any ground infrastructure whatsoever, has aided Ukrainian military units behind Russian lines to communicate
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1523828147397042177
Won't someone think of the children? But not Ukrainian children, obviously.
We have all been warned!
'Look, you're a decomposing corpse stinking the place out under your zombie Lord Boris so we can't be in a public coalition, but let's talk..'
A year is a long, long time in politics.
'Anas Sarwar makes 'open and big offer' to work with SNP Government'
https://tinyurl.com/54ak69yn
Mr. JohnL, it's always baffling when this sort of nonsense comes up. I remember the UK Government (forget which one) mulling the idea of a backdoor to every encryption in the country to help the police.
As if hackers wouldn't use such a thing. It'd be like having a door key under every plant pot and expecting burglars not to take advantage.
And politicians sometimes forget that non-criminals (ie most people) find encryption bloody useful.
https://twitter.com/PhantomPower14/status/1524877537242931230?s=20&t=BI6omvkZSSSPsAc7U3ORPg
I’ve seen at least 5 waves of Liberal/SDP/Lib Dem victorious advances. They all ended in tears.
I've witnessed many LibDem surges but I'm telling you, because I live here, that I have never seen such on the ground LibDem movement as is happening in Surrey. They are really on the move here: so active, so many new posters popping up, prominent people declaring their hand.
Ignore me if you like but my last tip on the LibDems in Surrey did NOT "end in tears". I told you they would win control of Woking council and in the end the results weren't even close.
And yesterday a place in Huntingdon still had a couple of largish Conservative posts in their garden.
Certainly Ukraine is motivated to do so, and has decisively moved into a European rather than Soviet mindset. I think it will get special status and reconstruction aid during the accession process, but full membership with FoM will take a decade. I expect the rest of the Balkans will be in soon too.
Chancellor Rishi Sunak says the Brexit settlement in Northern Ireland is causing harm
https://twitter.com/BloombergUK/status/1524988996937560065
I believe that statement is 100% correct though ?
Looking back over the years and especially at similar points in the electoral cycle, the closest comparisons to 2022 seem to be 2003 and 1986. The losses were comparable, the popular vote share was comparable - yet as we all know, Iain Duncan Smith and Neil Kinnock never became PM. The subsequent elections were comfortable wins for the governing party.
There is no comparison with 2008, ahead of a change of government, where the Conservative lead over Labour was double figures. There's not even a comparison with 1990, though of course there was a change of PM ahead of the 1992 election.
Does that mean that Labour can't win the next election? Of course not. 2 years is a long time in politics, especially in the current atmosphere, and especially with Johnson as PM. But the current signs to me continue to point towards a reduced Conservative majority.
On current trajectories by the next GE it's quite possible that the collective alchemy of the middling centrists in England and Wales will coalesce around the best option being a Lab/LD government. It is one of the handful of options (maybe the only one) that is reasonably stable and moderate.
The Tories need time to regroup. Labour can't win 126 extra seats. Scotland is lost for now. The vital thing is that SKS or his successor doesn't blow it. Burgon and a few friends could lose the whole thing in moments if they try.
It would be sad if Hunt, who epitomises a sane Tory future, became collateral damage.
https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1524998980396109824
UK government arguments amount to:
"Its created a trade border" - not a new development as it was clear thats what it was
"Its damaging trade" - the same. Duh!
"The GFA has legal primacy" - you wot?
Even Triggering A16 has its difficulties - we won't give a month's notice, we have already taken mitigating action which A16 allows us to then take, and we don't have any suggestions for what we do after triggering A16 to restore the NIP in a workable form.
But we don't want to do that. The threat to Boris is too big even for that. So having threatened it repeatedly we're now threatening the entire treaty. Or at least we are on paper. Because in the real world we don't have a legal leg to stand on, and the US delegation are flying in to point out in a pretty brutal manner that we don't have a political leg to stand on either.
And then the rest of his rant, about how the EU had taken it off us. He does know this was our solution? This was the oven-ready deal he voted for in 2019.
Yes, I know the education system in this country and the educational aspiration of the majority of the working class are poor, but do we just allow people to get away being ignorant thick sh*ts.
O/t, but a random thought struck me the other day; in the event of the next GE turn ng o8t rather lie the last set of locals, is there a scenario in which the Tories are the largest party but the PM loses his seat?
I know there's a PM boost, it's never happened, but there's always a first time.
Edit: on second thoughts, can those undercarriage legs castor sideways like a B-52's?
The problem we all have is that this government have championed ignorance. Weaponised stupidity. They don't want people to know how things work or even what the government they voted for and still support has done. They want them to remain ignorant because its easier to get away with stuff (like massive PPE corruption and ennobling the KGB) and makes them easier to manipulate.
So as always apply the Jabes O'Brien rule. Compassion for the conned (the QT bloke) and contempt for the conmen.
Indeed the reason you put in safeguarding or take out insurance is very often precisely because problems are foreseeable, so the fact that a problem that was foreseen has come to pass is not a reason not to engage in safeguarding, it is a reason to follow through with it.
The middling centrists in England -- there are not many in Wales -- have believed that the best option is a Lab/LD government at every election in my lifetime.
It has never happened.
It never happens because the landing strip is tiny. Either the plane overshoots the runaway, or the landing is in wet & stormy weather so the plane skids, or the pilot gets drunk and bottles it.
The past is a reliable guide to the future.
And also, the very last thing the UK needs is "the collective alchemy of the middling centrists" transmuting base metals into feck-all in Government.
The temper of the times is not right for middling blandness.
Article 16
Safeguards
1. If the application of this Protocol leads to serious economic, societal or environmental
difficulties that are liable to persist, or to diversion of trade, the Union or the United Kingdom
may unilaterally take appropriate safeguard measures. Such safeguard measures shall be
restricted with regard to their scope and duration to what is strictly necessary in order to
remedy the situation. Priority shall be given to such measures as will least disturb the
functioning of this Protocol.
2. If a safeguard measure taken by the Union or the United Kingdom, as the case may be, in
accordance with paragraph 1 creates an imbalance between the rights and obligations under
this Protocol, the Union or the United Kingdom, as the case may be, may take such
proportionate rebalancing measures as are strictly necessary to remedy the imbalance. Priority
shall be given to such measures as will least disturb the functioning of this Protocol.
3. Safeguard and rebalancing measures taken in accordance with paragraphs 1 and 2 shall be
governed by the procedures set out in Annex 7 to this Protocol.
Unilateral safeguard measures may be taken if there is diversion of trade, or societal problems likely to persist. That is all it says, it doesn't say unforeseen problems.
Northern Irish athletes compete as a part of Team GB.
Northern Irish athletes can choose to be part of Team GB, or Team Ireland, their choice just as their citizenship is their choice.
The Unionists consider themselves British and they compete in Team GB. As far as the public is concerned yes NI is a part of Britain and its splitting hair semantics to say otherwise.
I think Ukraine is possibly better placed (assuming post war reconstruction aid) than were they.
Within a decade isn't impossible.
Again, you do come across like the QT contributor, making bold statements that just don't work. I know you don't know why they won't work but that's because you aren't a lawyer. Thats why we have lawyers so that laypeople like me and thee can be protected from making a mess of ourselves by failing to understand the law.
Betting against LD at a GE is fairly safe perennial strategy.
A bunch of lawyers with an axe to grind like Jolyon don't make themselves right.
Is "Trigger A16" the next pretend magic wand? What endpoint do the trigger happy crew want to happen as a result? How likely is that outcome?
the same folk who said the oven ready deal was brilliant, that Brexit would be sunshine and rainbows, are now saying if we break International treaties all will be well.
I remain unconvinced
Anyway, we need to resolve this. Our government lovingly cast NI aside for an oven-ready deal it hadn't read the instructions for. But in reality we now face the end game for the province. More people voted for the NIP status quo than voted against it. Sinn Fein now in primacy in the north and looking likely to be the same in the south.
What we need to do is stop making stupid pro-DUP statements and think about how we keep the remaining ultra-hardcore unionists happy when Ireland either reunifies or NI becomes a self-governing mini-state.
I don't really disagree with his point.
I know you want it and believe it. That doesn't make it true.
'Hair, hair, hair, I've got none on my noddle
I don't care as down the street I toddle
All the people say, 'He's a good old thoroughbred.'
I never get the knock -I'm a jolly old cock
I'm proud of me old bald head'
Its one of those things that is formally an error, but substantially for lay people, it isn't. If its good enough for Team GB to refer to Northern Ireland as a part of GB, why isn't it good enough for general people to do the same?
Russia's 'case' for invading Ukraine is weak. Its case for invading Finland is essentially non-existent.
The question is though: what can Russia invade Finland with?
Considering the fact that the decision to take actions is to be made "unilaterally", the fact that the Attorney General agrees with me trumps every other hack lawyer grinding their own axe.
Sea Harrier had selectable castoring on the nosewheel with differing gain levels. It was one part of the aircraft where they seemed to have invested a great deal of time and money for some reason.
The Good Friday Agreement means NI are still a part of the UK and can still compete under Team GB and have British citizenship but they also have the right to choose Irish citizenship and choose to compete for Ireland if they want to.
That doesn't make them any less British though, if they prefer to be considered British, and they are still a part of the UK and Team GB if that is what they prefer.
If anyone though that all of Northern Ireland competes for Ireland that is far more substantially wrong than making the same linguistic technical error that tens of millions make every single Olympics year when they refer to Team GB.
UK’s trade deficit for goods and services widened to a record 5.3% of nominal GDP — largest gap since records began in 1955 — as imports rose 9.3 %, largely reflecting higher energy prices, while exports fell 4.9%. The fall in exports was broad-based.
https://www.ft.com/content/9880c4cd-033f-40c9-85c8-580d4c344439
Indeed in 1997 the LDs doubled their seat tally despite a slightly lower voteshare than 1992 because of the collapse of the Tory vote and Labour tactical voting in LD target seats
How does getting rid of 90000 civil servants ease the cost of living crisis?