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The 2022 English local elections – the final scorecard – politicalbetting.com

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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,850

    It’s interesting. The Corbyn cult thinks Starmer being investigated is great, that better results than St Jeremy which they called fantastic are poor and that Johnson should be PM.

    Almost like they’re not really Labour at all

    They think if Starmer goes they'll get control of the party again.
    Unfortunately, they don't seem to have realised because of the changes to the leadership election rules they won't be able to get a candidate on the ballot.
    In my case I think if Starmer goes Someone further to the right will become leader

    Depends how competent they are whether Labours chances of winning increase or not.

    If they genuinely want to unite the Party as SKS claimed then did the opposite they have a better chance of success IMO

    CHB wants SKS to stay even though he Lost 330 seats compared to Corbyn in LE2021 so now is still over 200 seats worse than even Corbyn

  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,930

    https://twitter.com/sunpolitics/status/1523058171488907265

    Surely Keir will have to sue over this. They’re literally libelling him

    That's what they want. The former DPP going to court to get a judge to stop the press. Just makes him look like a weasel. And keeps Keir the covid scoundrel in the news. He should ignore this. He has more difficult fights to fight over his behaviour.
  • Options

    It’s interesting. The Corbyn cult thinks Starmer being investigated is great, that better results than St Jeremy which they called fantastic are poor and that Johnson should be PM.

    Almost like they’re not really Labour at all

    They think if Starmer goes they'll get control of the party again.
    Unfortunately, they don't seem to have realised because of the changes to the leadership election rules they won't be able to get a candidate on the ballot.
    In my case I think if Starmer goes Someone further to the right will become leader

    Depends how competent they are whether Labours chances of winning increase or not.

    If they genuinely want to unite the Party as SKS claimed then did the opposite they have a better chance of success IMO

    CHB wants SKS to stay even though he Lost 330 seats compared to Corbyn in LE2021 so now is still over 200 seats worse than even Corbyn

    The further they move to the centre the more seats they will win as KS has proved.

    You aren’t going to get what you want. Nominate a less useless left candidate in the 2030s
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,658
    kinabalu said:

    FPT:

    Betting Question - How many PBer are wondering today, was the 2022 Kentucky Derby entirely kosher?

    Know I am. But then, what do I know?


    Come on, where's your sense of romance? That was the stuff of dreams, of legends:

    https://twitter.com/NBCSports/status/1523104042427334660?s=20&t=kml_1oY8uGBJAYXC9Fe8_A

    The stuff of dreams, legends, and a commentator who failed to notice the winner until just before the line.
    That was hilarious. Reminded me of when Donovan Bailey won the Olympic 100m.

    "And Greene going well, so's Ato Bolden, Greene pumping now, Bolden coming back at him, looking strong, Greene, Bolden, two of them locked, Greene, Greene, Bolden ... BAILEY!"
    Eh? Boldon and Fredericks shirley? Green came 7th.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,341

    https://twitter.com/sunpolitics/status/1523058171488907265

    Surely Keir will have to sue over this. They’re literally libelling him

    No they're not. The Sun's story is that Starmer was not wearing a mask. Right at the bottom is its get-out clause: "Sources pointed out that at no stage was mask-wearing legally required in these circumstances."
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,955

    dixiedean said:

    My take. England
    LD's. Big winners. I was more bullish on them than most, but I underestimated it. They are back as a serious force in certain counties.
    Greens did damn well. Also in specific places.
    Labour. Meh. SKS just isn't very good at politics. Be careful what Tories wish for. He hasn't cut through, and there is no chance of a Corbynite replacement.
    Tories was an off the scale disaster. They are facing an electoral pincer movement of tactical voting. I expected 200 losses UK wide. They've far exceeded that in England alone.
    Scotland.
    A bit meh all round really. Labour coming second is of symbolic importance mind. LD's did well.
    Wales.
    A super result for Llafur. Tories have chucked away a decade of hard graft. Dismal.
    NI.
    Could have been much worse

    LDs need to be wary though. They were back as serious players under Swinson post Euro triumph 2019 and after Change UK blew it and became Twitter whiners. Then she got ideas of grandeur. Ed Davey will struggle to get airtime apart from a quick cheesy by election piece to camera with a load of grinning sandalistas holding lib dem diamonds and breaking a cardboard box blue wall with an orange magic lib dem hammer and the electorate will gradually forget his successes over the next 2 years. The extra feet on the ground with the gains will help but it's a long way back to anything over 20 seats I think. A first step but still in precarious territory.
    Yeah. It's a long way back to 20 seats or more. But it would be churlish to suggest they didn't make the first few steps.
    They certainly exceeded my expectations.
    And I hold no truck for the sandal collective. They did well in Hull and the SW. A sign that Brexit is receding?
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,598

    dixiedean said:

    My take. England
    LD's. Big winners. I was more bullish on them than most, but I underestimated it. They are back as a serious force in certain counties.
    Greens did damn well. Also in specific places.
    Labour. Meh. SKS just isn't very good at politics. Be careful what Tories wish for. He hasn't cut through, and there is no chance of a Corbynite replacement.
    Tories was an off the scale disaster. They are facing an electoral pincer movement of tactical voting. I expected 200 losses UK wide. They've far exceeded that in England alone.
    Scotland.
    A bit meh all round really. Labour coming second is of symbolic importance mind. LD's did well.
    Wales.
    A super result for Llafur. Tories have chucked away a decade of hard graft. Dismal.
    NI.
    Could have been much worse

    LDs need to be wary though. They were back as serious players under Swinson post Euro triumph 2019 and after Change UK blew it and became Twitter whiners. Then she got ideas of grandeur. Ed Davey will struggle to get airtime apart from a quick cheesy by election piece to camera with a load of grinning sandalistas holding lib dem diamonds and breaking a cardboard box blue wall with an orange magic lib dem hammer and the electorate will gradually forget his successes over the next 2 years. The extra feet on the ground with the gains will help but it's a long way back to anything over 20 seats I think. A first step but still in precarious territory.
    They just need to seem generally likeable, and have a likeable leader. And for the Labour leader at the time to be unfrightening. That will be enough to score 13 or 14% in a GE and win multiple blue wall seats.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,930

    It’s interesting. The Corbyn cult thinks Starmer being investigated is great, that better results than St Jeremy which they called fantastic are poor and that Johnson should be PM.

    Almost like they’re not really Labour at all

    They think if Starmer goes they'll get control of the party again.
    Unfortunately, they don't seem to have realised because of the changes to the leadership election rules they won't be able to get a candidate on the ballot.
    In my case I think if Starmer goes Someone further to the right will become leader

    Depends how competent they are whether Labours chances of winning increase or not.

    If they genuinely want to unite the Party as SKS claimed then did the opposite they have a better chance of success IMO

    CHB wants SKS to stay even though he Lost 330 seats compared to Corbyn in LE2021 so now is still over 200 seats worse than even Corbyn

    Empty suit Streeting is the coming man. He is a pasty faced nobody. The Labour Cameron
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,658

    It’s interesting. The Corbyn cult thinks Starmer being investigated is great, that better results than St Jeremy which they called fantastic are poor and that Johnson should be PM.

    Almost like they’re not really Labour at all

    They think if Starmer goes they'll get control of the party again.
    Unfortunately, they don't seem to have realised because of the changes to the leadership election rules they won't be able to get a candidate on the ballot.
    In my case I think if Starmer goes Someone further to the right will become leader

    Depends how competent they are whether Labours chances of winning increase or not.

    If they genuinely want to unite the Party as SKS claimed then did the opposite they have a better chance of success IMO

    CHB wants SKS to stay even though he Lost 330 seats compared to Corbyn in LE2021 so now is still over 200 seats worse than even Corbyn

    You want Boris to continue as PM, so you're not really on strong ground pal.
  • Options
    state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,417
    felix said:

    ClippP said:

    Labour +22 is pathetic. I am surprised Liberals have not had more coverage of their big winning night.

    Doesn’t suit the narrative the big media players thought they were going to be reporting. They looked for a Labour triumph and therefore found one where none existed.
    CHB was posting excitedly for nearly 24 hrs amplifying the Lab are back message when it was always pretty obvious they were having a very poor set of Elections
    Labour ended up with more than double the number of seats the Tories got and more than THREE TIMES the number of LibDems!
    But it has to be recognised that the areas with elections this year were very favourable to Labour, Mr Prasannan, so it is not surprising they ended up holding most seats. And they did lose control of Hull as well.....
    And Harrow, Croydon, Newcastle under Lyme..
    and Tower Hamlets
  • Options
    No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 3,811

    Labour +22 is pathetic. I am surprised Liberals have not had more coverage of their big winning night.

    Doesn’t suit the narrative the big media players thought they were going to be reporting. They looked for a Labour triumph and therefore found one where none existed.
    CHB was posting excitedly for nearly 24 hrs amplifying the Lab are back message when it was always pretty obvious they were having a very poor set of Elections
    Off topic

    A very poor "set" of elections? Wales and Scotland don't count then.
    Wales was good. Scotland was a big disappointment.
    Yes, Scotland is skewed by the results being against the everyone loves Ruth era. Overall they are marginally second, a very slight improvement from the Holyrood election and a small move ahead of the Tories who even in 'disaster' managed 20% but they and the Tories are fishing in different ponds mainly- Labour in Central and Dunbartonshire, the West and Glasgow. Cons in Borders, Dumfries, Perthshire and Aberdeenshire with their only direct clashes likely to be possible three way fights in Ayrshire next time out
    The Scottish Conservatives got their worst % share in Edinburgh local elections since 1970, in the days of "Progressives".
    Although maybe only showing a small net effect, the Tory vote in Scotland is moving away from the suburbs towards the rural and coastal areas.
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,850
    Evening all :)

    It's always tempting to view the future through the prism of the past and assume what happened before will happen again. Life and politics don't work like that of course.

    We are where we are now - where we will be in 6 months let alone 24 is anyone's guess. These were a poor set of results for the Conservatives whose losses exceeded most normal expectations (those who were forecasting 800 losses excepted by definition).

    Yet it was far from all disaster for the Conservatives - in London for example they gained Harrow and improved their position in Enfield as well as depriving Labour of their majority in Croydon. Yes, Barnet, Westminster and Wandsworth were lost and the majority in Bromley was sharply reduced. At the same time not only did the party fail to make any headway in Sutton, they were almost annihilated in Kingston and Richmond.

    Labour's successes were the more public targets - the failures in Harrow, Croydon and Tower Hamlets less expected but unwelcome.

    For the Lib Dems and the Greens modest advances - for the former, control of the three flagship London Boroughs retained, real progress in Merton and more representation though there remain 19 Boroughs with no Lib Dem councillors and the Greens may yet become the alternative in places like Islington and Newham.

    The main lesson was the fragmentation of the anti-Conservative vote. It could be argued the electorate saw the best vehicle by which to register a vote against the Conservatives (including abstention) and used it. That may encourage some Conservatives to believe they have neutralised the anti-Labour threat but that's not the same as the anti-Conservative threat. If at the next election voters choose not to support the Conservatives, that still won't end well for the current Government party.

    Assuming of course that's what happens - since the last GE we've had a global pandemic and the virtual shutdown of normal life and now we have a major armed conflict with serious economic implications on Europe's doorstep. My old boss once told me the only constant is change - I'd amend that slightly - the only certainty is uncertainty.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,930
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    My take. England
    LD's. Big winners. I was more bullish on them than most, but I underestimated it. They are back as a serious force in certain counties.
    Greens did damn well. Also in specific places.
    Labour. Meh. SKS just isn't very good at politics. Be careful what Tories wish for. He hasn't cut through, and there is no chance of a Corbynite replacement.
    Tories was an off the scale disaster. They are facing an electoral pincer movement of tactical voting. I expected 200 losses UK wide. They've far exceeded that in England alone.
    Scotland.
    A bit meh all round really. Labour coming second is of symbolic importance mind. LD's did well.
    Wales.
    A super result for Llafur. Tories have chucked away a decade of hard graft. Dismal.
    NI.
    Could have been much worse

    LDs need to be wary though. They were back as serious players under Swinson post Euro triumph 2019 and after Change UK blew it and became Twitter whiners. Then she got ideas of grandeur. Ed Davey will struggle to get airtime apart from a quick cheesy by election piece to camera with a load of grinning sandalistas holding lib dem diamonds and breaking a cardboard box blue wall with an orange magic lib dem hammer and the electorate will gradually forget his successes over the next 2 years. The extra feet on the ground with the gains will help but it's a long way back to anything over 20 seats I think. A first step but still in precarious territory.
    Yeah. It's a long way back to 20 seats or more. But it would be churlish to suggest they didn't make the first few steps.
    They certainly exceeded my expectations.
    And I hold no truck for the sandal collective. They did well in Hull and the SW. A sign that Brexit is receding?
    I'm not sure (and yes the first few steps have been taken), I'm not sure re brexit or if a part of this us a safe 'protest' for Southern Tories that will dissipate. Perhaps Brexit is fading in the slightly more affluent brexit areas, I think it's still a big factor in much of the red wall for example
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187

    kinabalu said:

    FPT:

    Betting Question - How many PBer are wondering today, was the 2022 Kentucky Derby entirely kosher?

    Know I am. But then, what do I know?


    Come on, where's your sense of romance? That was the stuff of dreams, of legends:

    https://twitter.com/NBCSports/status/1523104042427334660?s=20&t=kml_1oY8uGBJAYXC9Fe8_A

    The stuff of dreams, legends, and a commentator who failed to notice the winner until just before the line.
    That was hilarious. Reminded me of when Donovan Bailey won the Olympic 100m.

    "And Greene going well, so's Ato Bolden, Greene pumping now, Bolden coming back at him, looking strong, Greene, Bolden, two of them locked, Greene, Greene, Bolden ... BAILEY!"
    Eh? Boldon and Fredericks shirley? Green came 7th.
    Yes, sorry, did it from a vague memory without bothering to check the details. It's the new slack me.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,850
    Andy_JS said:

    Rallings and Thrasher have the projected national share at Lab 35%, Con 33%.

    Westminster and Wandsworth accounted for about 95% of Labour's net council gains in England. 21 in those two boroughs and 22 in England.

    Westminster Wandsworth and Barnet accounted for well over 100% of their Gains
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,930
    TimS said:

    dixiedean said:

    My take. England
    LD's. Big winners. I was more bullish on them than most, but I underestimated it. They are back as a serious force in certain counties.
    Greens did damn well. Also in specific places.
    Labour. Meh. SKS just isn't very good at politics. Be careful what Tories wish for. He hasn't cut through, and there is no chance of a Corbynite replacement.
    Tories was an off the scale disaster. They are facing an electoral pincer movement of tactical voting. I expected 200 losses UK wide. They've far exceeded that in England alone.
    Scotland.
    A bit meh all round really. Labour coming second is of symbolic importance mind. LD's did well.
    Wales.
    A super result for Llafur. Tories have chucked away a decade of hard graft. Dismal.
    NI.
    Could have been much worse

    LDs need to be wary though. They were back as serious players under Swinson post Euro triumph 2019 and after Change UK blew it and became Twitter whiners. Then she got ideas of grandeur. Ed Davey will struggle to get airtime apart from a quick cheesy by election piece to camera with a load of grinning sandalistas holding lib dem diamonds and breaking a cardboard box blue wall with an orange magic lib dem hammer and the electorate will gradually forget his successes over the next 2 years. The extra feet on the ground with the gains will help but it's a long way back to anything over 20 seats I think. A first step but still in precarious territory.
    They just need to seem generally likeable, and have a likeable leader. And for the Labour leader at the time to be unfrightening. That will be enough to score 13 or 14% in a GE and win multiple blue wall seats.
    13% will get them half a dozen at most, if they are on 13, Tories are on high 30s minimum because labour aren't getting far north of 40 if at all
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,955

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    My take. England
    LD's. Big winners. I was more bullish on them than most, but I underestimated it. They are back as a serious force in certain counties.
    Greens did damn well. Also in specific places.
    Labour. Meh. SKS just isn't very good at politics. Be careful what Tories wish for. He hasn't cut through, and there is no chance of a Corbynite replacement.
    Tories was an off the scale disaster. They are facing an electoral pincer movement of tactical voting. I expected 200 losses UK wide. They've far exceeded that in England alone.
    Scotland.
    A bit meh all round really. Labour coming second is of symbolic importance mind. LD's did well.
    Wales.
    A super result for Llafur. Tories have chucked away a decade of hard graft. Dismal.
    NI.
    Could have been much worse

    LDs need to be wary though. They were back as serious players under Swinson post Euro triumph 2019 and after Change UK blew it and became Twitter whiners. Then she got ideas of grandeur. Ed Davey will struggle to get airtime apart from a quick cheesy by election piece to camera with a load of grinning sandalistas holding lib dem diamonds and breaking a cardboard box blue wall with an orange magic lib dem hammer and the electorate will gradually forget his successes over the next 2 years. The extra feet on the ground with the gains will help but it's a long way back to anything over 20 seats I think. A first step but still in precarious territory.
    Yeah. It's a long way back to 20 seats or more. But it would be churlish to suggest they didn't make the first few steps.
    They certainly exceeded my expectations.
    And I hold no truck for the sandal collective. They did well in Hull and the SW. A sign that Brexit is receding?
    I'm not sure (and yes the first few steps have been taken), I'm not sure re brexit or if a part of this us a safe 'protest' for Southern Tories that will dissipate. Perhaps Brexit is fading in the slightly more affluent brexit areas, I think it's still a big factor in much of the red wall for example
    I'm not convinced the Red Wall exists as an homogeneous concept.
  • Options
    Beergate is only good for Tories if Starmer doesn’t resign. Otherwise the Tories have fucked it
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187
    TimS said:

    dixiedean said:

    My take. England
    LD's. Big winners. I was more bullish on them than most, but I underestimated it. They are back as a serious force in certain counties.
    Greens did damn well. Also in specific places.
    Labour. Meh. SKS just isn't very good at politics. Be careful what Tories wish for. He hasn't cut through, and there is no chance of a Corbynite replacement.
    Tories was an off the scale disaster. They are facing an electoral pincer movement of tactical voting. I expected 200 losses UK wide. They've far exceeded that in England alone.
    Scotland.
    A bit meh all round really. Labour coming second is of symbolic importance mind. LD's did well.
    Wales.
    A super result for Llafur. Tories have chucked away a decade of hard graft. Dismal.
    NI.
    Could have been much worse

    LDs need to be wary though. They were back as serious players under Swinson post Euro triumph 2019 and after Change UK blew it and became Twitter whiners. Then she got ideas of grandeur. Ed Davey will struggle to get airtime apart from a quick cheesy by election piece to camera with a load of grinning sandalistas holding lib dem diamonds and breaking a cardboard box blue wall with an orange magic lib dem hammer and the electorate will gradually forget his successes over the next 2 years. The extra feet on the ground with the gains will help but it's a long way back to anything over 20 seats I think. A first step but still in precarious territory.
    They just need to seem generally likeable, and have a likeable leader. And for the Labour leader at the time to be unfrightening. That will be enough to score 13 or 14% in a GE and win multiple blue wall seats.
    Davey is likeable. I'd certainly have a small lager and lime with him if he was buying.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187

    It’s interesting. The Corbyn cult thinks Starmer being investigated is great, that better results than St Jeremy which they called fantastic are poor and that Johnson should be PM.

    Almost like they’re not really Labour at all

    They think if Starmer goes they'll get control of the party again.
    Unfortunately, they don't seem to have realised because of the changes to the leadership election rules they won't be able to get a candidate on the ballot.
    In my case I think if Starmer goes Someone further to the right will become leader

    Depends how competent they are whether Labours chances of winning increase or not.

    If they genuinely want to unite the Party as SKS claimed then did the opposite they have a better chance of success IMO

    CHB wants SKS to stay even though he Lost 330 seats compared to Corbyn in LE2021 so now is still over 200 seats worse than even Corbyn

    Empty suit Streeting is the coming man. He is a pasty faced nobody. The Labour Cameron
    Will lead them back to power and be PM for 6 years?
  • Options
    TresTres Posts: 2,223

    kinabalu said:

    FPT:

    Betting Question - How many PBer are wondering today, was the 2022 Kentucky Derby entirely kosher?

    Know I am. But then, what do I know?


    Come on, where's your sense of romance? That was the stuff of dreams, of legends:

    https://twitter.com/NBCSports/status/1523104042427334660?s=20&t=kml_1oY8uGBJAYXC9Fe8_A

    The stuff of dreams, legends, and a commentator who failed to notice the winner until just before the line.
    That was hilarious. Reminded me of when Donovan Bailey won the Olympic 100m.

    "And Greene going well, so's Ato Bolden, Greene pumping now, Bolden coming back at him, looking strong, Greene, Bolden, two of them locked, Greene, Greene, Bolden ... BAILEY!"
    Or when Paul Lawrie won the open and never featured in the final day coverage until the play off
    Well Lawrie finished his final round at least 90 minutes before van de velde who still had a 3 shot lead teeing off from 18.
  • Options
    kinabalu said:

    It’s interesting. The Corbyn cult thinks Starmer being investigated is great, that better results than St Jeremy which they called fantastic are poor and that Johnson should be PM.

    Almost like they’re not really Labour at all

    They think if Starmer goes they'll get control of the party again.
    Unfortunately, they don't seem to have realised because of the changes to the leadership election rules they won't be able to get a candidate on the ballot.
    In my case I think if Starmer goes Someone further to the right will become leader

    Depends how competent they are whether Labours chances of winning increase or not.

    If they genuinely want to unite the Party as SKS claimed then did the opposite they have a better chance of success IMO

    CHB wants SKS to stay even though he Lost 330 seats compared to Corbyn in LE2021 so now is still over 200 seats worse than even Corbyn

    Empty suit Streeting is the coming man. He is a pasty faced nobody. The Labour Cameron
    Will lead them back to power and be PM for 6 years?
    This is John Smith all over again.

    The Tories have made a big error here. They must be praying Keir doesn’t resign
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited May 2022

    kinabalu said:

    It’s interesting. The Corbyn cult thinks Starmer being investigated is great, that better results than St Jeremy which they called fantastic are poor and that Johnson should be PM.

    Almost like they’re not really Labour at all

    They think if Starmer goes they'll get control of the party again.
    Unfortunately, they don't seem to have realised because of the changes to the leadership election rules they won't be able to get a candidate on the ballot.
    In my case I think if Starmer goes Someone further to the right will become leader

    Depends how competent they are whether Labours chances of winning increase or not.

    If they genuinely want to unite the Party as SKS claimed then did the opposite they have a better chance of success IMO

    CHB wants SKS to stay even though he Lost 330 seats compared to Corbyn in LE2021 so now is still over 200 seats worse than even Corbyn

    Empty suit Streeting is the coming man. He is a pasty faced nobody. The Labour Cameron
    Will lead them back to power and be PM for 6 years?
    This is John Smith all over again.

    The Tories have made a big error here. They must be praying Keir doesn’t resign
    2 mins ago you were telling us Starmer was great, he was going to lead Labour to victory.

    You could argue that Starmer going, forces Tories to finally throw Boris out, so its RON for both parties. Starmer not going, probably means Tories stick with Boris and his reputation is now like an anchor around him and his party.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,930

    Labour +22 is pathetic. I am surprised Liberals have not had more coverage of their big winning night.

    Doesn’t suit the narrative the big media players thought they were going to be reporting. They looked for a Labour triumph and therefore found one where none existed.
    CHB was posting excitedly for nearly 24 hrs amplifying the Lab are back message when it was always pretty obvious they were having a very poor set of Elections
    Off topic

    A very poor "set" of elections? Wales and Scotland don't count then.
    Wales was good. Scotland was a big disappointment.
    Yes, Scotland is skewed by the results being against the everyone loves Ruth era. Overall they are marginally second, a very slight improvement from the Holyrood election and a small move ahead of the Tories who even in 'disaster' managed 20% but they and the Tories are fishing in different ponds mainly- Labour in Central and Dunbartonshire, the West and Glasgow. Cons in Borders, Dumfries, Perthshire and Aberdeenshire with their only direct clashes likely to be possible three way fights in Ayrshire next time out
    The Scottish Conservatives got their worst % share in Edinburgh local elections since 1970, in the days of "Progressives".
    Although maybe only showing a small net effect, the Tory vote in Scotland is moving away from the suburbs towards the rural and coastal areas.
    Agreed, Edinburgh is now as unlikely to yield success as Glasgow. They were perhaps towards competitive in what constitutes Pentlands at Holyrood, abject elsewhere. Dumfries and Galloway looks very solid now, and I think Aberdeenshire and Perthshire will be fruitful going forward (although thr SNP are having something of a Renaissance of dominance for now in Tayside), I actually think they may surprise in the 3 Ayrshire seats next time if they hold 20% plus support, as given the ferry issues and Labour coming back I see 3 way scraps ensuing. I've currently got them winning Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock back and with a sniff in Ayrshire Central, but events will no doubt amend those thoughts
  • Options

    kinabalu said:

    It’s interesting. The Corbyn cult thinks Starmer being investigated is great, that better results than St Jeremy which they called fantastic are poor and that Johnson should be PM.

    Almost like they’re not really Labour at all

    They think if Starmer goes they'll get control of the party again.
    Unfortunately, they don't seem to have realised because of the changes to the leadership election rules they won't be able to get a candidate on the ballot.
    In my case I think if Starmer goes Someone further to the right will become leader

    Depends how competent they are whether Labours chances of winning increase or not.

    If they genuinely want to unite the Party as SKS claimed then did the opposite they have a better chance of success IMO

    CHB wants SKS to stay even though he Lost 330 seats compared to Corbyn in LE2021 so now is still over 200 seats worse than even Corbyn

    Empty suit Streeting is the coming man. He is a pasty faced nobody. The Labour Cameron
    Will lead them back to power and be PM for 6 years?
    This is John Smith all over again.

    The Tories have made a big error here. They must be praying Keir doesn’t resign
    2 mins ago you were telling us Starmer was going to lead Labour to victory.
    He will. If he’s found innocent. If he stays he is fucked and I would not vote Labour then.

    Otherwise he’s innocent and wins. Or resigns and Labour wins.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,150

    https://twitter.com/sunpolitics/status/1523058171488907265

    Surely Keir will have to sue over this. They’re literally libelling him

    What are you wittering about libelling him. Its absolute barrel scraping nonsense, but its no different to the ones we had about Boris not having his mask on all the time at the theatre etc.
    Johnson should sue too.
    Why? Its non story, but how it is "libelling" them pointing out they didn't stick 100% to every rule, recommendation and request?

    It does back up what I said about Starmer playing the politics really badly. He played it as I am the law man, I never ever break the law. He could have easily covered his own arse for these sort of minor infractions as as he claimed at the time rules being very confusing, while still making a solid point about Boris actively encouraging this staff to ignore the rules.
    Do you not understand the Tory Red Tops (and Telegraph) have determined Starmer's guilt is the Yin to Johnson's innocent Yang? The guiltier Starmer, the less guilty Johnson. I am sure Johnson believes it too.
  • Options
    I maintain Keir is great. He’s done a superb job of marginalising the left and locking them out of power for good
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,850
    Meanwhile, across the North Sea (more or less):

    A huge win for the CDU in the Schleswig-Holstein state election. The latest numbers I've seen (with 99% counted and changes on 2017):

    CDU: 43.4% (+11.4)
    Greens: 18.3% (+5.4)
    SPD: 15.9% (-11.4)
    FDP: 6.4% (-5.1)
    SSV (South Schleswig Voters): 5.7% (+2.4)

    Alternative (4.4% -1.5) fail to get back into the Landtag. It's a huge vote of confidence for the Jamaica Coalition currently in charge led by the CDU's Daniel Gunther (who looks like Mark Dolan from GB News and is only 18 months younger).

    How do we see this result? It may also be a slap for Olaf Scholz for his perceived lack of solidarity with the Ukraine and for the FDP because of the economy while the Greens have done well for a more hawkish stand on Ukraine.

    The seat projection has the CDU on 34, the Greens on 14, SPD 12, FDP 6 and SSW 4 in the 70-seat Landtag. That means the current administration going from 44 to 54 seats.

    Whether this will have any impact on Nordrhein-Westfalen next week remains to be seen - the polls there suggest the SPD-Green opposition will take power from the incumbent CDU-FDP Government.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,850

    It’s interesting. The Corbyn cult thinks Starmer being investigated is great, that better results than St Jeremy which they called fantastic are poor and that Johnson should be PM.

    Almost like they’re not really Labour at all

    They think if Starmer goes they'll get control of the party again.
    Unfortunately, they don't seem to have realised because of the changes to the leadership election rules they won't be able to get a candidate on the ballot.
    In my case I think if Starmer goes Someone further to the right will become leader

    Depends how competent they are whether Labours chances of winning increase or not.

    If they genuinely want to unite the Party as SKS claimed then did the opposite they have a better chance of success IMO

    CHB wants SKS to stay even though he Lost 330 seats compared to Corbyn in LE2021 so now is still over 200 seats worse than even Corbyn

    You want Boris to continue as PM, so you're not really on strong ground pal.
    Boris Johnsons policies of levelling up are transforming my area more than any Lab Government or Tory Government have ever done

    I believe he is to the left in terms of economics and Social policy compared to Lab under SKS

    If that remains the case i want Labour to lose.

    Clearly anyone who wants SKS to continue must also want the Tories to win as it is inevitable.

    If the LE of 2021 and 2022 dont show you that I cant really help
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,930
    kinabalu said:

    It’s interesting. The Corbyn cult thinks Starmer being investigated is great, that better results than St Jeremy which they called fantastic are poor and that Johnson should be PM.

    Almost like they’re not really Labour at all

    They think if Starmer goes they'll get control of the party again.
    Unfortunately, they don't seem to have realised because of the changes to the leadership election rules they won't be able to get a candidate on the ballot.
    In my case I think if Starmer goes Someone further to the right will become leader

    Depends how competent they are whether Labours chances of winning increase or not.

    If they genuinely want to unite the Party as SKS claimed then did the opposite they have a better chance of success IMO

    CHB wants SKS to stay even though he Lost 330 seats compared to Corbyn in LE2021 so now is still over 200 seats worse than even Corbyn

    Empty suit Streeting is the coming man. He is a pasty faced nobody. The Labour Cameron
    Will lead them back to power and be PM for 6 years?
    Probably. And then it's all pigs heads and grubby money
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,930

    kinabalu said:

    It’s interesting. The Corbyn cult thinks Starmer being investigated is great, that better results than St Jeremy which they called fantastic are poor and that Johnson should be PM.

    Almost like they’re not really Labour at all

    They think if Starmer goes they'll get control of the party again.
    Unfortunately, they don't seem to have realised because of the changes to the leadership election rules they won't be able to get a candidate on the ballot.
    In my case I think if Starmer goes Someone further to the right will become leader

    Depends how competent they are whether Labours chances of winning increase or not.

    If they genuinely want to unite the Party as SKS claimed then did the opposite they have a better chance of success IMO

    CHB wants SKS to stay even though he Lost 330 seats compared to Corbyn in LE2021 so now is still over 200 seats worse than even Corbyn

    Empty suit Streeting is the coming man. He is a pasty faced nobody. The Labour Cameron
    Will lead them back to power and be PM for 6 years?
    This is John Smith all over again.

    The Tories have made a big error here. They must be praying Keir doesn’t resign
    John Smith tragically died and was a legend. SKS is a twat. There is no comparison.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187
    Andy_JS said:

    Rallings and Thrasher have the projected national share at Lab 35%, Con 33%.

    Westminster and Wandsworth accounted for about 95% of Labour's net council gains in England. 21 in those two boroughs and 22 in England.

    What happened to the 5% NEV gap? I thought that was Curtice ie gospel.
  • Options
    TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    I guess Germany is not too popular in Poland currently:

    https://twitter.com/Lukas_Tomks/status/1523414337070993408/photo/1
  • Options

    kinabalu said:

    It’s interesting. The Corbyn cult thinks Starmer being investigated is great, that better results than St Jeremy which they called fantastic are poor and that Johnson should be PM.

    Almost like they’re not really Labour at all

    They think if Starmer goes they'll get control of the party again.
    Unfortunately, they don't seem to have realised because of the changes to the leadership election rules they won't be able to get a candidate on the ballot.
    In my case I think if Starmer goes Someone further to the right will become leader

    Depends how competent they are whether Labours chances of winning increase or not.

    If they genuinely want to unite the Party as SKS claimed then did the opposite they have a better chance of success IMO

    CHB wants SKS to stay even though he Lost 330 seats compared to Corbyn in LE2021 so now is still over 200 seats worse than even Corbyn

    Empty suit Streeting is the coming man. He is a pasty faced nobody. The Labour Cameron
    Will lead them back to power and be PM for 6 years?
    This is John Smith all over again.

    The Tories have made a big error here. They must be praying Keir doesn’t resign
    John Smith tragically died and was a legend. SKS is a twat. There is no comparison.
    He tragically died and put into place Labour’s winning ability. Just as Keir has done.

    Both are legends.
  • Options

    It’s interesting. The Corbyn cult thinks Starmer being investigated is great, that better results than St Jeremy which they called fantastic are poor and that Johnson should be PM.

    Almost like they’re not really Labour at all

    They think if Starmer goes they'll get control of the party again.
    Unfortunately, they don't seem to have realised because of the changes to the leadership election rules they won't be able to get a candidate on the ballot.
    In my case I think if Starmer goes Someone further to the right will become leader

    Depends how competent they are whether Labours chances of winning increase or not.

    If they genuinely want to unite the Party as SKS claimed then did the opposite they have a better chance of success IMO

    CHB wants SKS to stay even though he Lost 330 seats compared to Corbyn in LE2021 so now is still over 200 seats worse than even Corbyn

    You want Boris to continue as PM, so you're not really on strong ground pal.
    Boris Johnsons policies of levelling up are transforming my area more than any Lab Government or Tory Government have ever done

    I believe he is to the left in terms of economics and Social policy compared to Lab under SKS

    If that remains the case i want Labour to lose.

    Clearly anyone who wants SKS to continue must also want the Tories to win as it is inevitable.

    If the LE of 2021 and 2022 dont show you that I cant really help
    Jesus Christ you’re a lost cause.
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,022

    https://twitter.com/sunpolitics/status/1523058171488907265

    Surely Keir will have to sue over this. They’re literally libelling him

    Which bit is the libel?

    They are careful to say “covid rules at the tip” rather than “the law”.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,930
    kinabalu said:

    TimS said:

    dixiedean said:

    My take. England
    LD's. Big winners. I was more bullish on them than most, but I underestimated it. They are back as a serious force in certain counties.
    Greens did damn well. Also in specific places.
    Labour. Meh. SKS just isn't very good at politics. Be careful what Tories wish for. He hasn't cut through, and there is no chance of a Corbynite replacement.
    Tories was an off the scale disaster. They are facing an electoral pincer movement of tactical voting. I expected 200 losses UK wide. They've far exceeded that in England alone.
    Scotland.
    A bit meh all round really. Labour coming second is of symbolic importance mind. LD's did well.
    Wales.
    A super result for Llafur. Tories have chucked away a decade of hard graft. Dismal.
    NI.
    Could have been much worse

    LDs need to be wary though. They were back as serious players under Swinson post Euro triumph 2019 and after Change UK blew it and became Twitter whiners. Then she got ideas of grandeur. Ed Davey will struggle to get airtime apart from a quick cheesy by election piece to camera with a load of grinning sandalistas holding lib dem diamonds and breaking a cardboard box blue wall with an orange magic lib dem hammer and the electorate will gradually forget his successes over the next 2 years. The extra feet on the ground with the gains will help but it's a long way back to anything over 20 seats I think. A first step but still in precarious territory.
    They just need to seem generally likeable, and have a likeable leader. And for the Labour leader at the time to be unfrightening. That will be enough to score 13 or 14% in a GE and win multiple blue wall seats.
    Davey is likeable. I'd certainly have a small lager and lime with him if he was buying.
    A chunkier, more urban Lembit Opik. Norman Lamb with a seat.
  • Options
    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949

    https://twitter.com/sunpolitics/status/1523058171488907265

    Surely Keir will have to sue over this. They’re literally libelling him

    Which bit is the libel?

    They are careful to say “covid rules at the tip” rather than “the law”.
    It's all a matter of perspective, but I'd say the headline is over the line. It's no good (imo) to make a false statement in the headline and walk it back in the article. Though the law may not work that way. And it's clear how a reasonable person would understand the headline.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,850

    I maintain Keir is great. He’s done a superb job of marginalising the left and locking them out of power for good

    I maintain Keir is great. He’s done a superb job of marginalising the left and locking them out of power for good

    Ideological Purity sod winning typical Centrist
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    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited May 2022
    OGH has opined that the next GE will be Boris versus SKS. I wonder.

    I think both parties will benefit from changing their leaders.

    First, the Tories. Boris has ratnered himself. There is an argument he should go now, but I think the Tories are better advised to wait a year. The Tories are in power, there is a dismal few months ahead, they need Boris to carry the can. They want a fresh dewy-faced leader for late 2023, a new Tory reincarnation just in time for the election.

    The time for defenestrating Boris is about one year from now.

    But, for Labour, there is no downside to acting right away. I was always skeptical about SKS.

    Some posters argued that his staidness was an advantage. They said: after the British electorate had been on a wild night out in the pubs and clubs with Boris, and been landed with the drinks bill and the taxi fare home, they would appreciate staying in with Keir for cocoa and warm buns.

    But, nobody wants to stay in with plain Keir. And Keir has ratnered himself. He is no longer 'Honest, Homebody Keir', there have been lies, evasions and shiftiness in Durham, minimum.

    LOTO against Boris is the easiest job in the world, for the moment. You just need to oppose & paint some big picture (no details) on what you would do. Keir can't even do that.

    Labour don't need to wait. Keir is not that good, and Labour have others available who are better.

    The time for defenestrating Keir is now.
  • Options

    I maintain Keir is great. He’s done a superb job of marginalising the left and locking them out of power for good

    I maintain Keir is great. He’s done a superb job of marginalising the left and locking them out of power for good

    Ideological Purity sod winning typical Centrist
    I like Labour Parties that win elections and change lives.

    You like Tory Governments.

    If you don’t think Blair is the best PM of the last thirty years you should quit Labour immediately.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,955

    kinabalu said:

    It’s interesting. The Corbyn cult thinks Starmer being investigated is great, that better results than St Jeremy which they called fantastic are poor and that Johnson should be PM.

    Almost like they’re not really Labour at all

    They think if Starmer goes they'll get control of the party again.
    Unfortunately, they don't seem to have realised because of the changes to the leadership election rules they won't be able to get a candidate on the ballot.
    In my case I think if Starmer goes Someone further to the right will become leader

    Depends how competent they are whether Labours chances of winning increase or not.

    If they genuinely want to unite the Party as SKS claimed then did the opposite they have a better chance of success IMO

    CHB wants SKS to stay even though he Lost 330 seats compared to Corbyn in LE2021 so now is still over 200 seats worse than even Corbyn

    Empty suit Streeting is the coming man. He is a pasty faced nobody. The Labour Cameron
    Will lead them back to power and be PM for 6 years?
    This is John Smith all over again.

    The Tories have made a big error here. They must be praying Keir doesn’t resign

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    My take. England
    LD's. Big winners. I was more bullish on them than most, but I underestimated it. They are back as a serious force in certain counties.
    Greens did damn well. Also in specific places.
    Labour. Meh. SKS just isn't very good at politics. Be careful what Tories wish for. He hasn't cut through, and there is no chance of a Corbynite replacement.
    Tories was an off the scale disaster. They are facing an electoral pincer movement of tactical voting. I expected 200 losses UK wide. They've far exceeded that in England alone.
    Scotland.
    A bit meh all round really. Labour coming second is of symbolic importance mind. LD's did well.
    Wales.
    A super result for Llafur. Tories have chucked away a decade of hard graft. Dismal.
    NI.
    Could have been much worse

    LDs need to be wary though. They were back as serious players under Swinson post Euro triumph 2019 and after Change UK blew it and became Twitter whiners. Then she got ideas of grandeur. Ed Davey will struggle to get airtime apart from a quick cheesy by election piece to camera with a load of grinning sandalistas holding lib dem diamonds and breaking a cardboard box blue wall with an orange magic lib dem hammer and the electorate will gradually forget his successes over the next 2 years. The extra feet on the ground with the gains will help but it's a long way back to anything over 20 seats I think. A first step but still in precarious territory.
    Yeah. It's a long way back to 20 seats or more. But it would be churlish to suggest they didn't make the first few steps.
    They certainly exceeded my expectations.
    And I hold no truck for the sandal collective. They did well in Hull and the SW. A sign that Brexit is receding?
    I'm not sure (and yes the first few steps have been taken), I'm not sure re brexit or if a part of this us a safe 'protest' for Southern Tories that will dissipate. Perhaps Brexit is fading in the slightly more affluent brexit areas, I think it's still a big factor in much of the red wall for example
    I'm of the firm opinion that the "Red Wall" doesn't exist as an homogeneous concept.
    Labour did well in certain "Brexity" areas. Cumbria. West Yorkshire, Wales.
    And appallingly in others. Midlands.
    Almost as if membership of the EU wasn't the root reason
  • Options
    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,301

    Beergate is only good for Tories if Starmer doesn’t resign. Otherwise the Tories have fucked it

    Not so sure. The narrative is already growing that Sir Keir's infractions were a good deal *worse* than Boris's - Boris only sampled a slice of birthday cake; Sir Keir was boozing and feasting with dozens of raucous attendees at a pre-arranged Saturnalia. If Sir Keir resigns most people will think it is through shame, having berated poor Boris for doing stuff that was dwarfed by his own knavery.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,930

    kinabalu said:

    It’s interesting. The Corbyn cult thinks Starmer being investigated is great, that better results than St Jeremy which they called fantastic are poor and that Johnson should be PM.

    Almost like they’re not really Labour at all

    They think if Starmer goes they'll get control of the party again.
    Unfortunately, they don't seem to have realised because of the changes to the leadership election rules they won't be able to get a candidate on the ballot.
    In my case I think if Starmer goes Someone further to the right will become leader

    Depends how competent they are whether Labours chances of winning increase or not.

    If they genuinely want to unite the Party as SKS claimed then did the opposite they have a better chance of success IMO

    CHB wants SKS to stay even though he Lost 330 seats compared to Corbyn in LE2021 so now is still over 200 seats worse than even Corbyn

    Empty suit Streeting is the coming man. He is a pasty faced nobody. The Labour Cameron
    Will lead them back to power and be PM for 6 years?
    This is John Smith all over again.

    The Tories have made a big error here. They must be praying Keir doesn’t resign
    John Smith tragically died and was a legend. SKS is a twat. There is no comparison.
    He tragically died and put into place Labour’s winning ability. Just as Keir has done.

    Both are legends.
    He's really not. He's so poor that Rayner looks credible next to him
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,150

    It’s interesting. The Corbyn cult thinks Starmer being investigated is great, that better results than St Jeremy which they called fantastic are poor and that Johnson should be PM.

    Almost like they’re not really Labour at all

    They think if Starmer goes they'll get control of the party again.
    Unfortunately, they don't seem to have realised because of the changes to the leadership election rules they won't be able to get a candidate on the ballot.
    In my case I think if Starmer goes Someone further to the right will become leader

    Depends how competent they are whether Labours chances of winning increase or not.

    If they genuinely want to unite the Party as SKS claimed then did the opposite they have a better chance of success IMO

    CHB wants SKS to stay even though he Lost 330 seats compared to Corbyn in LE2021 so now is still over 200 seats worse than even Corbyn

    You want Boris to continue as PM, so you're not really on strong ground pal.
    Boris Johnsons policies of levelling up are transforming my area more than any Lab Government or Tory Government have ever done

    I believe he is to the left in terms of economics and Social policy compared to Lab under SKS

    If that remains the case i want Labour to lose.

    Clearly anyone who wants SKS to continue must also want the Tories to win as it is inevitable.

    If the LE of 2021 and 2022 dont show you that I cant really help
    Have you lathered yourself down with all that snake oil?

    You are not a socialist, you are a RedWall Johnsonian Conservative.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187
    Eabhal said:

    It’s interesting. The Corbyn cult thinks Starmer being investigated is great, that better results than St Jeremy which they called fantastic are poor and that Johnson should be PM.

    Almost like they’re not really Labour at all

    Particularly pathetic given Corbyn didn't demonstrate strong adherence to the rules.

    I'm just a bit depressed about Labour, tbh. Rubbish in most of England, no real breakthrough here in Scotland.

    The Lib Dem gains aren't going to translate to the 50 - 60 seats that would cause a significant change to the arithmetic in the absence of a Labour revival in Scotland/red wall.
    Lab will also gain seats in parts of the South. So long as anti Tories vote intelligently - which you'd expect with being anti Tories - that could be enough for a change of government. I'm quite optimistic actually.
  • Options
    I I’m in

    kinabalu said:

    It’s interesting. The Corbyn cult thinks Starmer being investigated is great, that better results than St Jeremy which they called fantastic are poor and that Johnson should be PM.

    Almost like they’re not really Labour at all

    They think if Starmer goes they'll get control of the party again.
    Unfortunately, they don't seem to have realised because of the changes to the leadership election rules they won't be able to get a candidate on the ballot.
    In my case I think if Starmer goes Someone further to the right will become leader

    Depends how competent they are whether Labours chances of winning increase or not.

    If they genuinely want to unite the Party as SKS claimed then did the opposite they have a better chance of success IMO

    CHB wants SKS to stay even though he Lost 330 seats compared to Corbyn in LE2021 so now is still over 200 seats worse than even Corbyn

    Empty suit Streeting is the coming man. He is a pasty faced nobody. The Labour Cameron
    Will lead them back to power and be PM for 6 years?
    This is John Smith all over again.

    The Tories have made a big error here. They must be praying Keir doesn’t resign
    John Smith tragically died and was a legend. SKS is a twat. There is no comparison.
    He tragically died and put into place Labour’s winning ability. Just as Keir has done.

    Both are legends.
    He's really not. He's so poor that Rayner looks credible next to him
    He turned a 26 point deficit into a 6 point lead. He’s a legend
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,331

    kinabalu said:

    It’s interesting. The Corbyn cult thinks Starmer being investigated is great, that better results than St Jeremy which they called fantastic are poor and that Johnson should be PM.

    Almost like they’re not really Labour at all

    They think if Starmer goes they'll get control of the party again.
    Unfortunately, they don't seem to have realised because of the changes to the leadership election rules they won't be able to get a candidate on the ballot.
    In my case I think if Starmer goes Someone further to the right will become leader

    Depends how competent they are whether Labours chances of winning increase or not.

    If they genuinely want to unite the Party as SKS claimed then did the opposite they have a better chance of success IMO

    CHB wants SKS to stay even though he Lost 330 seats compared to Corbyn in LE2021 so now is still over 200 seats worse than even Corbyn

    Empty suit Streeting is the coming man. He is a pasty faced nobody. The Labour Cameron
    Will lead them back to power and be PM for 6 years?
    This is John Smith all over again.

    The Tories have made a big error here. They must be praying Keir doesn’t resign
    John Smith tragically died and was a legend. SKS is a twat. There is no comparison.
    There is a tradition of praising past leaders of other parties - Wilson not up to Attlee, Blair not up to Wilson, etc. Are you claiming that you would in fact have voted Labour if John Smith had lived to 1997?
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,850
    Sunday Times claims Boris Johnson personally "despises" his opposite number. An ally says: "He genuinely does not like Keir. He sees this man as part of a privileged, metropolitan, narrow-minded elite uncomfortable with the raw instincts of the vast majority of British people."

  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,850


    LDs need to be wary though. They were back as serious players under Swinson post Euro triumph 2019 and after Change UK blew it and became Twitter whiners. Then she got ideas of grandeur. Ed Davey will struggle to get airtime apart from a quick cheesy by election piece to camera with a load of grinning sandalistas holding lib dem diamonds and breaking a cardboard box blue wall with an orange magic lib dem hammer and the electorate will gradually forget his successes over the next 2 years. The extra feet on the ground with the gains will help but it's a long way back to anything over 20 seats I think. A first step but still in precarious territory.

    That's a realistic if slightly negative view (throwing words like "sandalistas" around doesn't suggest the greatest degree of objectivity either).

    No party cares (in truth) from where its votes come. If someone votes for the party as an enthusiastic believer in all aspects of policy or is voting against the other parties out of anger, disillusionment or personal antipathy to a particular candidate, it's still only one vote each.

    Did the Conservatives win in 2019 because voters voted for Boris Johnson or against Jeremy Corbyn? Yes and Yes to some degree and if people vote Lib Dem because they cannot support Johnson (presumably) or Starmer (equally presumably) in 2024, Ed Davey isn't going to be too bothered.

    It's also not just votes but bums on Commons benches that matter. As UKIP discovered, polling 12.5% everywhere gets you nowhere. The key to LD success is to build small islands of success surrounded by vast oceans of irrelevance but if those islands get you to 20-30 seats that "can" give the party a real say in the next Government.

    The LDs are building these new islands out of the wreckage of the 2015 tsunami - some are old islands re-surfacing, others are new. The Greens are also starting to build their own areas of strength and some of those are areas in which the LDs have never had any presence and in others they've supplanted the LDs as the main anti-Conservative voice.

    As I've said elsewhere, the voters are working it out for themselves in lieu of "progressive alliances" and the like - the maximising of the anti-Conservative vote is the game in town currently and whoever is able to put themselves in the position of being the main repository for that vote is going to prosper.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,725

    kinabalu said:

    TimS said:

    dixiedean said:

    My take. England
    LD's. Big winners. I was more bullish on them than most, but I underestimated it. They are back as a serious force in certain counties.
    Greens did damn well. Also in specific places.
    Labour. Meh. SKS just isn't very good at politics. Be careful what Tories wish for. He hasn't cut through, and there is no chance of a Corbynite replacement.
    Tories was an off the scale disaster. They are facing an electoral pincer movement of tactical voting. I expected 200 losses UK wide. They've far exceeded that in England alone.
    Scotland.
    A bit meh all round really. Labour coming second is of symbolic importance mind. LD's did well.
    Wales.
    A super result for Llafur. Tories have chucked away a decade of hard graft. Dismal.
    NI.
    Could have been much worse

    LDs need to be wary though. They were back as serious players under Swinson post Euro triumph 2019 and after Change UK blew it and became Twitter whiners. Then she got ideas of grandeur. Ed Davey will struggle to get airtime apart from a quick cheesy by election piece to camera with a load of grinning sandalistas holding lib dem diamonds and breaking a cardboard box blue wall with an orange magic lib dem hammer and the electorate will gradually forget his successes over the next 2 years. The extra feet on the ground with the gains will help but it's a long way back to anything over 20 seats I think. A first step but still in precarious territory.
    They just need to seem generally likeable, and have a likeable leader. And for the Labour leader at the time to be unfrightening. That will be enough to score 13 or 14% in a GE and win multiple blue wall seats.
    Davey is likeable. I'd certainly have a small lager and lime with him if he was buying.
    A chunkier, more urban Lembit Opik. Norman Lamb with a seat.
    I don't really see where the Lembit comparisons come in to it, Davey is, well, normal.
  • Options

    Sunday Times claims Boris Johnson personally "despises" his opposite number. An ally says: "He genuinely does not like Keir. He sees this man as part of a privileged, metropolitan, narrow-minded elite uncomfortable with the raw instincts of the vast majority of British people."

    Are you writing about yourself in the third person again?
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,930
    dixiedean said:

    kinabalu said:

    It’s interesting. The Corbyn cult thinks Starmer being investigated is great, that better results than St Jeremy which they called fantastic are poor and that Johnson should be PM.

    Almost like they’re not really Labour at all

    They think if Starmer goes they'll get control of the party again.
    Unfortunately, they don't seem to have realised because of the changes to the leadership election rules they won't be able to get a candidate on the ballot.
    In my case I think if Starmer goes Someone further to the right will become leader

    Depends how competent they are whether Labours chances of winning increase or not.

    If they genuinely want to unite the Party as SKS claimed then did the opposite they have a better chance of success IMO

    CHB wants SKS to stay even though he Lost 330 seats compared to Corbyn in LE2021 so now is still over 200 seats worse than even Corbyn

    Empty suit Streeting is the coming man. He is a pasty faced nobody. The Labour Cameron
    Will lead them back to power and be PM for 6 years?
    This is John Smith all over again.

    The Tories have made a big error here. They must be praying Keir doesn’t resign

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    My take. England
    LD's. Big winners. I was more bullish on them than most, but I underestimated it. They are back as a serious force in certain counties.
    Greens did damn well. Also in specific places.
    Labour. Meh. SKS just isn't very good at politics. Be careful what Tories wish for. He hasn't cut through, and there is no chance of a Corbynite replacement.
    Tories was an off the scale disaster. They are facing an electoral pincer movement of tactical voting. I expected 200 losses UK wide. They've far exceeded that in England alone.
    Scotland.
    A bit meh all round really. Labour coming second is of symbolic importance mind. LD's did well.
    Wales.
    A super result for Llafur. Tories have chucked away a decade of hard graft. Dismal.
    NI.
    Could have been much worse

    LDs need to be wary though. They were back as serious players under Swinson post Euro triumph 2019 and after Change UK blew it and became Twitter whiners. Then she got ideas of grandeur. Ed Davey will struggle to get airtime apart from a quick cheesy by election piece to camera with a load of grinning sandalistas holding lib dem diamonds and breaking a cardboard box blue wall with an orange magic lib dem hammer and the electorate will gradually forget his successes over the next 2 years. The extra feet on the ground with the gains will help but it's a long way back to anything over 20 seats I think. A first step but still in precarious territory.
    Yeah. It's a long way back to 20 seats or more. But it would be churlish to suggest they didn't make the first few steps.
    They certainly exceeded my expectations.
    And I hold no truck for the sandal collective. They did well in Hull and the SW. A sign that Brexit is receding?
    I'm not sure (and yes the first few steps have been taken), I'm not sure re brexit or if a part of this us a safe 'protest' for Southern Tories that will dissipate. Perhaps Brexit is fading in the slightly more affluent brexit areas, I think it's still a big factor in much of the red wall for example
    I'm of the firm opinion that the "Red Wall" doesn't exist as an homogeneous concept.
    Labour did well in certain "Brexity" areas. Cumbria. West Yorkshire, Wales.
    And appallingly in others. Midlands.
    Almost as if membership of the EU wasn't the root reason
    On either side. Remain was anti Toryism and globalist self pleasure, Brexit a pipe dream of some imagined Albion that never existed.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,055

    Sunday Times claims Boris Johnson personally "despises" his opposite number. An ally says: "He genuinely does not like Keir. He sees this man as part of a privileged, metropolitan, narrow-minded elite uncomfortable with the raw instincts of the vast majority of British people."

    Are you writing about yourself in the third person again?
    Maybe the Boris ally is called Jeremy.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,986

    kinabalu said:

    It’s interesting. The Corbyn cult thinks Starmer being investigated is great, that better results than St Jeremy which they called fantastic are poor and that Johnson should be PM.

    Almost like they’re not really Labour at all

    They think if Starmer goes they'll get control of the party again.
    Unfortunately, they don't seem to have realised because of the changes to the leadership election rules they won't be able to get a candidate on the ballot.
    In my case I think if Starmer goes Someone further to the right will become leader

    Depends how competent they are whether Labours chances of winning increase or not.

    If they genuinely want to unite the Party as SKS claimed then did the opposite they have a better chance of success IMO

    CHB wants SKS to stay even though he Lost 330 seats compared to Corbyn in LE2021 so now is still over 200 seats worse than even Corbyn

    Empty suit Streeting is the coming man. He is a pasty faced nobody. The Labour Cameron
    Will lead them back to power and be PM for 6 years?
    This is John Smith all over again.

    The Tories have made a big error here. They must be praying Keir doesn’t resign
    John Smith tragically died and was a legend. SKS is a twat. There is no comparison.
    Ideologically there is very little difference between John Smith and Starmer as far as I can see, Starmer is certainly closer to him policy wise than Blair
  • Options
    ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    Sunday Times claims Boris Johnson personally "despises" his opposite number. An ally says: "He genuinely does not like Keir. He sees this man as part of a privileged, metropolitan, narrow-minded elite uncomfortable with the raw instincts of the vast majority of British people."

    No wonder he's been making mistakes - hatred is an emotion that a politician can't afford.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,814
    Andy_JS said:

    Rallings and Thrasher have the projected national share at Lab 35%, Con 33%.

    Westminster and Wandsworth accounted for about 95% of Labour's net council gains in England. 21 in those two boroughs and 22 in England.

    LOL! So in the end Labour only had a 2% lead? That's absolutely shocking!
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,808
    What are we arguing about here. How this augurs for the next GE? So. forget +22 from 2018, think where Labour were 12 months ago and look where Labour led in constituency wide vote counts often on huge 12 month swings:

    Carlisle, Copeland. Hartlepool. Newcatle-under-Lyme, multiple West Brom and Wolves. across West Yorkshire, Leigh, many, many others. The red wall, whether you define that broadly as Con 19 gains in the North and Midlands, or narrowly as WWC ex-mining Con gains, swung back, the return to 2018 is a massive step and the Con 19 coalition is dead, gone - not going, but gone..
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187
    Tres said:

    kinabalu said:

    FPT:

    Betting Question - How many PBer are wondering today, was the 2022 Kentucky Derby entirely kosher?

    Know I am. But then, what do I know?


    Come on, where's your sense of romance? That was the stuff of dreams, of legends:

    https://twitter.com/NBCSports/status/1523104042427334660?s=20&t=kml_1oY8uGBJAYXC9Fe8_A

    The stuff of dreams, legends, and a commentator who failed to notice the winner until just before the line.
    That was hilarious. Reminded me of when Donovan Bailey won the Olympic 100m.

    "And Greene going well, so's Ato Bolden, Greene pumping now, Bolden coming back at him, looking strong, Greene, Bolden, two of them locked, Greene, Greene, Bolden ... BAILEY!"
    Or when Paul Lawrie won the open and never featured in the final day coverage until the play off
    Well Lawrie finished his final round at least 90 minutes before van de velde who still had a 3 shot lead teeing off from 18.
    Yes. Not a great Open winner. Then soon after came Ben Curtis and Todd Hamilton. Opposite of a golden era that was.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,986
    edited May 2022
    So on the final tally the Conservatives did better than the local elections of 2019 and indeed 2012 when they lost 405 and 1,330 seats respectively.

    Even if they did worse than last year and 2018 when the seats were last up
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,930

    kinabalu said:

    It’s interesting. The Corbyn cult thinks Starmer being investigated is great, that better results than St Jeremy which they called fantastic are poor and that Johnson should be PM.

    Almost like they’re not really Labour at all

    They think if Starmer goes they'll get control of the party again.
    Unfortunately, they don't seem to have realised because of the changes to the leadership election rules they won't be able to get a candidate on the ballot.
    In my case I think if Starmer goes Someone further to the right will become leader

    Depends how competent they are whether Labours chances of winning increase or not.

    If they genuinely want to unite the Party as SKS claimed then did the opposite they have a better chance of success IMO

    CHB wants SKS to stay even though he Lost 330 seats compared to Corbyn in LE2021 so now is still over 200 seats worse than even Corbyn

    Empty suit Streeting is the coming man. He is a pasty faced nobody. The Labour Cameron
    Will lead them back to power and be PM for 6 years?
    This is John Smith all over again.

    The Tories have made a big error here. They must be praying Keir doesn’t resign
    John Smith tragically died and was a legend. SKS is a twat. There is no comparison.
    There is a tradition of praising past leaders of other parties - Wilson not up to Attlee, Blair not up to Wilson, etc. Are you claiming that you would in fact have voted Labour if John Smith had lived to 1997?
    I'd have voted Wilson in a heartbeat for what it's worth and Attlee in 45. Smith is the only good leader Labour have had since Wilson (Sunny Jim was unlucky really with what he had to deal with). I probably would have voted for him in 97, yes, I ended up voting Referendum party. I'd also have been keen on a Bryan Gould led party.
    After Smith Labour stopped bothering being about anything and started going full on niche interest, pet project nonsense (a process that started in the early 80s)
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,576
    edited May 2022
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    It's always tempting to view the future through the prism of the past and assume what happened before will happen again. Life and politics don't work like that of course.

    We are where we are now - where we will be in 6 months let alone 24 is anyone's guess. These were a poor set of results for the Conservatives whose losses exceeded most normal expectations (those who were forecasting 800 losses excepted by definition).

    Yet it was far from all disaster for the Conservatives - in London for example they gained Harrow and improved their position in Enfield as well as depriving Labour of their majority in Croydon. Yes, Barnet, Westminster and Wandsworth were lost and the majority in Bromley was sharply reduced. At the same time not only did the party fail to make any headway in Sutton, they were almost annihilated in Kingston and Richmond.

    Labour's successes were the more public targets - the failures in Harrow, Croydon and Tower Hamlets less expected but unwelcome.

    For the Lib Dems and the Greens modest advances - for the former, control of the three flagship London Boroughs retained, real progress in Merton and more representation though there remain 19 Boroughs with no Lib Dem councillors and the Greens may yet become the alternative in places like Islington and Newham.

    The main lesson was the fragmentation of the anti-Conservative vote. It could be argued the electorate saw the best vehicle by which to register a vote against the Conservatives (including abstention) and used it. That may encourage some Conservatives to believe they have neutralised the anti-Labour threat but that's not the same as the anti-Conservative threat. If at the next election voters choose not to support the Conservatives, that still won't end well for the current Government party.

    Assuming of course that's what happens - since the last GE we've had a global pandemic and the virtual shutdown of normal life and now we have a major armed conflict with serious economic implications on Europe's doorstep. My old boss once told me the only constant is change - I'd amend that slightly - the only certainty is uncertainty.

    Good analysis. The Tories are almost guaranteed to lose about 20 seats to the LDs in places like Winchester/Cheltenham and another 20 to Labour in metropolitan/university type seats. To retain a majority under the new boundaries they'll need to practically hold everything else. They can maybe afford to lose 5 or so Red Wall seats but no more than that.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,850

    I I’m in

    kinabalu said:

    It’s interesting. The Corbyn cult thinks Starmer being investigated is great, that better results than St Jeremy which they called fantastic are poor and that Johnson should be PM.

    Almost like they’re not really Labour at all

    They think if Starmer goes they'll get control of the party again.
    Unfortunately, they don't seem to have realised because of the changes to the leadership election rules they won't be able to get a candidate on the ballot.
    In my case I think if Starmer goes Someone further to the right will become leader

    Depends how competent they are whether Labours chances of winning increase or not.

    If they genuinely want to unite the Party as SKS claimed then did the opposite they have a better chance of success IMO

    CHB wants SKS to stay even though he Lost 330 seats compared to Corbyn in LE2021 so now is still over 200 seats worse than even Corbyn

    Empty suit Streeting is the coming man. He is a pasty faced nobody. The Labour Cameron
    Will lead them back to power and be PM for 6 years?
    This is John Smith all over again.

    The Tories have made a big error here. They must be praying Keir doesn’t resign
    John Smith tragically died and was a legend. SKS is a twat. There is no comparison.
    He tragically died and put into place Labour’s winning ability. Just as Keir has done.

    Both are legends.
    He's really not. He's so poor that Rayner looks credible next to him
    He turned a 26 point deficit into a 6 point lead. He’s a legend
    Performed worse than Corbyn in Elections though

    LE 2021 was Labours worst performance since 1935.

    What was your favourite Electoral success of the SKS era?
  • Options

    I I’m in

    kinabalu said:

    It’s interesting. The Corbyn cult thinks Starmer being investigated is great, that better results than St Jeremy which they called fantastic are poor and that Johnson should be PM.

    Almost like they’re not really Labour at all

    They think if Starmer goes they'll get control of the party again.
    Unfortunately, they don't seem to have realised because of the changes to the leadership election rules they won't be able to get a candidate on the ballot.
    In my case I think if Starmer goes Someone further to the right will become leader

    Depends how competent they are whether Labours chances of winning increase or not.

    If they genuinely want to unite the Party as SKS claimed then did the opposite they have a better chance of success IMO

    CHB wants SKS to stay even though he Lost 330 seats compared to Corbyn in LE2021 so now is still over 200 seats worse than even Corbyn

    Empty suit Streeting is the coming man. He is a pasty faced nobody. The Labour Cameron
    Will lead them back to power and be PM for 6 years?
    This is John Smith all over again.

    The Tories have made a big error here. They must be praying Keir doesn’t resign
    John Smith tragically died and was a legend. SKS is a twat. There is no comparison.
    He tragically died and put into place Labour’s winning ability. Just as Keir has done.

    Both are legends.
    He's really not. He's so poor that Rayner looks credible next to him
    He turned a 26 point deficit into a 6 point lead. He’s a legend
    Performed worse than Corbyn in Elections though

    LE 2021 was Labours worst performance since 1935.

    What was your favourite Electoral success of the SKS era?
    When he won councils that were Tory during Blair years.

    I like when St Jeremy lost in a landslide
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,710
    Glass half empty or half full for Labour? But I don't think actually bad results for them. Starmer, or his successor, will be in Downing Street if they are maintained to the next election.
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,561
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    FPT:

    Betting Question - How many PBer are wondering today, was the 2022 Kentucky Derby entirely kosher?

    Know I am. But then, what do I know?


    Come on, where's your sense of romance? That was the stuff of dreams, of legends:

    https://twitter.com/NBCSports/status/1523104042427334660?s=20&t=kml_1oY8uGBJAYXC9Fe8_A

    Thanks for posting. Actually makes me think win was legit, but again, I am Sergeant Schultz - I know nothing!
    FPT It's a short talk - a byway into Stalin's tactics 1929 - 1932 may be a little too much, even for my eloquence, let alone the audience!

    When I am PB PM OTOH .....
    Cyclefree said:

    FPT:

    Betting Question - How many PBer are wondering today, was the 2022 Kentucky Derby entirely kosher?

    Know I am. But then, what do I know?


    Come on, where's your sense of romance? That was the stuff of dreams, of legends:

    https://twitter.com/NBCSports/status/1523104042427334660?s=20&t=kml_1oY8uGBJAYXC9Fe8_A

    Thanks for posting. Actually makes me think win was legit, but again, I am Sergeant Schultz - I know nothing!
    FPT It's a short talk - a byway into Stalin's tactics 1929 - 1932 may be a little too much, even for my eloquence, let alone the audience!

    When I am PB PM OTOH .....
    Was just reading eye-witness account by Fitzroy MacLean in "Eastern Approaches" of purge trial in 1938 featuring Nikolai Bukharin. Who despite pleading guilty - for his own ideological imperative - gave even better than he got, in the courtroom anyway.

    Still open question whether Stalin's massive late-30s purges of party, army, security, you name it, were a plus or minus to Soviets in the impending Great Patriotic War.
    No it isn't. There is no way they were a positive. Even Soviet historians gave up pretending otherwise.
    That's my view in general.

    But it's a fact that when he took charge as US Army Chief of Staff in 1940, Gen. George Marshall - himself advanced over scores of superior officers by FDR - had to rid the higher ranks of deadwood accumulated as result of WW1 seniority.

    Also a fact - again speaking of generals - that Stalin secured the WW2 services of Gen. Konstantin Rokossovsky by having the foresight NOT to execute him, but instead sending him to the Gulag in Siberia, where he was located, freed and put to work helping the Red Army hold and roll back the Germans.
    There wasn't lots of dead wood in the Russian Army. It had been rebuilt pretty much from scratch for the Civil War. In fact, it contained many of the most forward thinking generals of their generation, the likes of Tukhachevsky and Yakir who were early exponents of tank warfare. Without them, the Russians looked inept in the Winter War and almost collapsed without a fight against Barbarossa. Officers were so frightened of being shot if they got things wrong they never gave their units orders to fire.

    Do not confuse it with long established militaries, like say, ours or the US one where a bunch of 'old X's boys' get promoted due to their connections. Yes, connections were important, but you had to actually be good to make them.
    Tukhachevsky was a scumbag - but one with a brain.

    The problem was that he, and the other exponents of combined are warfare, were a bit too clever for Stalin. In DictatorWorld, being cleverer than the boss = the chop.

    So, while the tank designers kept on working away, the doctrine remained that tanks were infantry support vehicles rather than an arm in their own right. And the Red Army kept it's cavalry...
    If you can name a leading Bolshevik who wasn't a scumbag...
    Krupskaya?
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,006
    Andy_JS said:

    Sunday Times claims Boris Johnson personally "despises" his opposite number. An ally says: "He genuinely does not like Keir. He sees this man as part of a privileged, metropolitan, narrow-minded elite uncomfortable with the raw instincts of the vast majority of British people."

    Johnson is pretty privileged and metropolitan himself.
    Maybe he is secretly self-loathing and filled with guilt. (Doubt it.)
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,850
    HYUFD said:

    So on the final tally the Conservatives did better than the local elections of 2019 and indeed 2012 when they lost 405 and 1,330 seats respectively.

    Even if they did worse than last year and 2018 when the seats were last up

    It's a little unfair to compare seat numbers on different election rounds as different seats and councils are being contested each time.

    As a Unionist, shouldn't you be looking at the British totals which indicate a 487 seat loss for the Conservatives?
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,850

    I I’m in

    kinabalu said:

    It’s interesting. The Corbyn cult thinks Starmer being investigated is great, that better results than St Jeremy which they called fantastic are poor and that Johnson should be PM.

    Almost like they’re not really Labour at all

    They think if Starmer goes they'll get control of the party again.
    Unfortunately, they don't seem to have realised because of the changes to the leadership election rules they won't be able to get a candidate on the ballot.
    In my case I think if Starmer goes Someone further to the right will become leader

    Depends how competent they are whether Labours chances of winning increase or not.

    If they genuinely want to unite the Party as SKS claimed then did the opposite they have a better chance of success IMO

    CHB wants SKS to stay even though he Lost 330 seats compared to Corbyn in LE2021 so now is still over 200 seats worse than even Corbyn

    Empty suit Streeting is the coming man. He is a pasty faced nobody. The Labour Cameron
    Will lead them back to power and be PM for 6 years?
    This is John Smith all over again.

    The Tories have made a big error here. They must be praying Keir doesn’t resign
    John Smith tragically died and was a legend. SKS is a twat. There is no comparison.
    He tragically died and put into place Labour’s winning ability. Just as Keir has done.

    Both are legends.
    He's really not. He's so poor that Rayner looks credible next to him
    He turned a 26 point deficit into a 6 point lead. He’s a legend
    Performed worse than Corbyn in Elections though

    LE 2021 was Labours worst performance since 1935.

    What was your favourite Electoral success of the SKS era?
    When he won councils that were Tory during Blair years.

    I like when St Jeremy lost in a landslide
    Oh well I suppose there weren't that many to choose from and with your "I like when St Jeremy lost in a landslide" you really lose all credibility as you were ramping for him at the time.

    Go and have a lie down mate
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,930
    stodge said:


    LDs need to be wary though. They were back as serious players under Swinson post Euro triumph 2019 and after Change UK blew it and became Twitter whiners. Then she got ideas of grandeur. Ed Davey will struggle to get airtime apart from a quick cheesy by election piece to camera with a load of grinning sandalistas holding lib dem diamonds and breaking a cardboard box blue wall with an orange magic lib dem hammer and the electorate will gradually forget his successes over the next 2 years. The extra feet on the ground with the gains will help but it's a long way back to anything over 20 seats I think. A first step but still in precarious territory.

    That's a realistic if slightly negative view (throwing words like "sandalistas" around doesn't suggest the greatest degree of objectivity either).

    No party cares (in truth) from where its votes come. If someone votes for the party as an enthusiastic believer in all aspects of policy or is voting against the other parties out of anger, disillusionment or personal antipathy to a particular candidate, it's still only one vote each.

    Did the Conservatives win in 2019 because voters voted for Boris Johnson or against Jeremy Corbyn? Yes and Yes to some degree and if people vote Lib Dem because they cannot support Johnson (presumably) or Starmer (equally presumably) in 2024, Ed Davey isn't going to be too bothered.

    It's also not just votes but bums on Commons benches that matter. As UKIP discovered, polling 12.5% everywhere gets you nowhere. The key to LD success is to build small islands of success surrounded by vast oceans of irrelevance but if those islands get you to 20-30 seats that "can" give the party a real say in the next Government.

    The LDs are building these new islands out of the wreckage of the 2015 tsunami - some are old islands re-surfacing, others are new. The Greens are also starting to build their own areas of strength and some of those are areas in which the LDs have never had any presence and in others they've supplanted the LDs as the main anti-Conservative voice.

    As I've said elsewhere, the voters are working it out for themselves in lieu of "progressive alliances" and the like - the maximising of the anti-Conservative vote is the game in town currently and whoever is able to put themselves in the position of being the main repository for that vote is going to prosper.
    Sandalistas is a fun descriptor, it's not meant with venom like I'd describe Labour most times or Johnson at the moment, or 2022 Kippers if there are any left! Objectivity is for hard cash situations though, discussion is for passion and a bit of gentle ribbing.
    I can see 20 seats yes, and 30 by decades end unless an unexpected collapse happens to the Tories to low 30s.
    The progressive alliance is double edged. The more it evidences itself the more backlash. Some Voters don't like any idea of a stitch up, however unfair that be as a description of what's happening.
    The greens nationally are probably for now fishing at Labour seats, that's where i see them getting enough strength to challenge - bristol, parts of inner London etc. For sll the talk of Stroud, Molly only managed slightly better by a couple % than the 2005 election for example. They need a decade more of building local bases, perhaps a council or two or a change to proportional representation. Hopefully any English breakthrough won't see them turn into the monsters that are the Scottish Greens.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,269

    Sunday Times claims Boris Johnson personally "despises" his opposite number. An ally says: "He genuinely does not like Keir. He sees this man as part of a privileged, metropolitan, narrow-minded elite uncomfortable with the raw instincts of the vast majority of British people."

    You are right. Boris definitely is part of a privileged, metropolitan, narrow-minded elite uncomfortable with the raw instincts of the vast majority of British people!
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,022
    Quincel said:

    https://twitter.com/sunpolitics/status/1523058171488907265

    Surely Keir will have to sue over this. They’re literally libelling him

    Which bit is the libel?

    They are careful to say “covid rules at the tip” rather than “the law”.
    It's all a matter of perspective, but I'd say the headline is over the line. It's no good (imo) to make a false statement in the headline and walk it back in the article. Though the law may not work that way. And it's clear how a reasonable person would understand the headline.
    I think they have written it beautifully if the objective is to make the offence seem significant but without libelling him

    “Under fire Keir Starmer” - fair comment

    “Caught on camera” - objectively true

    Now the critical bit: is it “flouting [general / national] Covid rules” in a specified geographic location “at council tip”

    Or:

    “Flouting” - what’s he done - “Covid rules at council tip”.

    Given the second is true (rules, not laws, at the tip was to wear a mask) and a natural reading (although possibly not the only natural reading) I think the court would struggle to reject a defence of objective truth.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,576
    The local elections aren't officially over yet.

    There's a recount in Havering / Rainham & Wennington between the Tories and the Residents Association, which has been postponed until Monday at 6pm.

    https://twitter.com/nickogris/status/1522506499020496896
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,710

    Sunday Times claims Boris Johnson personally "despises" his opposite number. An ally says: "He genuinely does not like Keir. He sees this man as part of a privileged, metropolitan, narrow-minded elite uncomfortable with the raw instincts of the vast majority of British people."

    Lot of projection from Johnson there. But he and Starmer do genuinely seem to hate each other - which isn't always the case with political opponents.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited May 2022
    Owners of second homes who do not rent out their properties will be hit with double council tax under plans to be unveiled in the Queen’s Speech this week, as Boris Johnson attempts to reset his premiership by focusing on the “people’s priorities”.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/05/08/second-home-owners-face-double-council-tax-tories-aim-win-back/

    Don't a large number of people who have second homes in holiday spots already rent them out as an easy way of covering the costs?
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,850

    Sunday Times claims Boris Johnson personally "despises" his opposite number. An ally says: "He genuinely does not like Keir. He sees this man as part of a privileged, metropolitan, narrow-minded elite uncomfortable with the raw instincts of the vast majority of British people."

    You are right. Boris definitely is part of a privileged, metropolitan, narrow-minded elite uncomfortable with the raw instincts of the vast majority of British people!
    And you voted for him.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,150

    Sunday Times claims Boris Johnson personally "despises" his opposite number. An ally says: "He genuinely does not like Keir. He sees this man as part of a privileged, metropolitan, narrow-minded elite uncomfortable with the raw instincts of the vast majority of British people."

    In that case you are Boris Johnson and I claim my £5.

    P.S. " He sees this man as part of a privileged, metropolitan narrow- minded elite uncomfortable with the raw instincts of the vast majority of British people". From current polling Johnson might as well be talking about himself. The man has no humility.
  • Options

    Sunday Times claims Boris Johnson personally "despises" his opposite number. An ally says: "He genuinely does not like Keir. He sees this man as part of a privileged, metropolitan, narrow-minded elite uncomfortable with the raw instincts of the vast majority of British people."

    You are right. Boris definitely is part of a privileged, metropolitan, narrow-minded elite uncomfortable with the raw instincts of the vast majority of British people!
    And you voted for him.
    And you want him to be PM. That should be grounds to lose your Labour Party membership, campaigning for another party
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,269

    Sunday Times claims Boris Johnson personally "despises" his opposite number. An ally says: "He genuinely does not like Keir. He sees this man as part of a privileged, metropolitan, narrow-minded elite uncomfortable with the raw instincts of the vast majority of British people."

    You are right. Boris definitely is part of a privileged, metropolitan, narrow-minded elite uncomfortable with the raw instincts of the vast majority of British people!
    And you voted for him.
    No, I voted Labour (three times!) on Thursday.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,930
    kle4 said:

    kinabalu said:

    TimS said:

    dixiedean said:

    My take. England
    LD's. Big winners. I was more bullish on them than most, but I underestimated it. They are back as a serious force in certain counties.
    Greens did damn well. Also in specific places.
    Labour. Meh. SKS just isn't very good at politics. Be careful what Tories wish for. He hasn't cut through, and there is no chance of a Corbynite replacement.
    Tories was an off the scale disaster. They are facing an electoral pincer movement of tactical voting. I expected 200 losses UK wide. They've far exceeded that in England alone.
    Scotland.
    A bit meh all round really. Labour coming second is of symbolic importance mind. LD's did well.
    Wales.
    A super result for Llafur. Tories have chucked away a decade of hard graft. Dismal.
    NI.
    Could have been much worse

    LDs need to be wary though. They were back as serious players under Swinson post Euro triumph 2019 and after Change UK blew it and became Twitter whiners. Then she got ideas of grandeur. Ed Davey will struggle to get airtime apart from a quick cheesy by election piece to camera with a load of grinning sandalistas holding lib dem diamonds and breaking a cardboard box blue wall with an orange magic lib dem hammer and the electorate will gradually forget his successes over the next 2 years. The extra feet on the ground with the gains will help but it's a long way back to anything over 20 seats I think. A first step but still in precarious territory.
    They just need to seem generally likeable, and have a likeable leader. And for the Labour leader at the time to be unfrightening. That will be enough to score 13 or 14% in a GE and win multiple blue wall seats.
    Davey is likeable. I'd certainly have a small lager and lime with him if he was buying.
    A chunkier, more urban Lembit Opik. Norman Lamb with a seat.
    I don't really see where the Lembit comparisons come in to it, Davey is, well, normal.
    Lembit was everything you'd expect a Mid Welsh Liberal Democrat to be.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,850
    Goodnight all not many sleeps now till SKS goes
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,850

    stodge said:


    That's a realistic if slightly negative view (throwing words like "sandalistas" around doesn't suggest the greatest degree of objectivity either).

    No party cares (in truth) from where its votes come. If someone votes for the party as an enthusiastic believer in all aspects of policy or is voting against the other parties out of anger, disillusionment or personal antipathy to a particular candidate, it's still only one vote each.

    Did the Conservatives win in 2019 because voters voted for Boris Johnson or against Jeremy Corbyn? Yes and Yes to some degree and if people vote Lib Dem because they cannot support Johnson (presumably) or Starmer (equally presumably) in 2024, Ed Davey isn't going to be too bothered.

    It's also not just votes but bums on Commons benches that matter. As UKIP discovered, polling 12.5% everywhere gets you nowhere. The key to LD success is to build small islands of success surrounded by vast oceans of irrelevance but if those islands get you to 20-30 seats that "can" give the party a real say in the next Government.

    The LDs are building these new islands out of the wreckage of the 2015 tsunami - some are old islands re-surfacing, others are new. The Greens are also starting to build their own areas of strength and some of those are areas in which the LDs have never had any presence and in others they've supplanted the LDs as the main anti-Conservative voice.

    As I've said elsewhere, the voters are working it out for themselves in lieu of "progressive alliances" and the like - the maximising of the anti-Conservative vote is the game in town currently and whoever is able to put themselves in the position of being the main repository for that vote is going to prosper.

    Sandalistas is a fun descriptor, it's not meant with venom like I'd describe Labour most times or Johnson at the moment, or 2022 Kippers if there are any left! Objectivity is for hard cash situations though, discussion is for passion and a bit of gentle ribbing.
    I can see 20 seats yes, and 30 by decades end unless an unexpected collapse happens to the Tories to low 30s.
    The progressive alliance is double edged. The more it evidences itself the more backlash. Some Voters don't like any idea of a stitch up, however unfair that be as a description of what's happening.
    The greens nationally are probably for now fishing at Labour seats, that's where i see them getting enough strength to challenge - bristol, parts of inner London etc. For sll the talk of Stroud, Molly only managed slightly better by a couple % than the 2005 election for example. They need a decade more of building local bases, perhaps a council or two or a change to proportional representation. Hopefully any English breakthrough won't see them turn into the monsters that are the Scottish Greens.
    Fair points all and apologies for being a tad defensive on a Sunday evening - not even sure why.

    I agree with most of what you're saying - there will certainly be no talking up of electoral pacts or the like or even "progressive alliances" by the LDs if they have any sense. The "understandings" will be tactical not strategic - there's no point fishing in the same waters if there's no need.

    I think the Greens are starting down the LD road - they are slowly but surely attracting voters and members (often among the young but not always). In Newham, they won two seats in the Olympic Park ward, a new seat full of new developments of flats mostly occupied by younger people and thereby succeeded where the Conservatives and the LDs had failed and that was to get a toehold on Newham Council.

    Indeed, not only did the Greens put up a full slate in Newham, they outpolled the Conservatives across the Borough. For all their money and supposed connections, the Newham Conservatives came third - the Greens can now position themselves as the viable alternative to Labour and I could easily see Green candidates finishing second in East and West Ham at the next GE. That's happening in other areas of Inner London (Islington, Hackney) and while it's no immediate challenge to Labour now, it's a big political change.
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Owners of second homes who do not rent out their properties will be hit with double council tax under plans to be unveiled in the Queen’s Speech this week, as Boris Johnson attempts to reset his premiership by focusing on the “people’s priorities”.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/05/08/second-home-owners-face-double-council-tax-tories-aim-win-back/

    Don't a large number of people who have second homes in holiday spots already rent them out as an easy way of covering the costs?

    I am guessing it'll exclude airbnb ers by say stipulating a min 6 month term
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,850

    Sunday Times claims Boris Johnson personally "despises" his opposite number. An ally says: "He genuinely does not like Keir. He sees this man as part of a privileged, metropolitan, narrow-minded elite uncomfortable with the raw instincts of the vast majority of British people."

    You are right. Boris definitely is part of a privileged, metropolitan, narrow-minded elite uncomfortable with the raw instincts of the vast majority of British people!
    And you voted for him.
    And you want him to be PM. That should be grounds to lose your Labour Party membership, campaigning for another party
    You dont pay much attention do you

    i resigned last June and am currently part of a data breach lawsuit against them as they were supposed to destroy my details when i left as stated in their data policies but subsequently informed me it had been stolen.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,150

    Quincel said:

    https://twitter.com/sunpolitics/status/1523058171488907265

    Surely Keir will have to sue over this. They’re literally libelling him

    Which bit is the libel?

    They are careful to say “covid rules at the tip” rather than “the law”.
    It's all a matter of perspective, but I'd say the headline is over the line. It's no good (imo) to make a false statement in the headline and walk it back in the article. Though the law may not work that way. And it's clear how a reasonable person would understand the headline.
    I think they have written it beautifully if the objective is to make the offence seem significant but without libelling him

    “Under fire Keir Starmer” - fair comment

    “Caught on camera” - objectively true

    Now the critical bit: is it “flouting [general / national] Covid rules” in a specified geographic location “at council tip”

    Or:

    “Flouting” - what’s he done - “Covid rules at council tip”.

    Given the second is true (rules, not laws, at the tip was to wear a mask) and a natural reading (although possibly not the only natural reading) I think the court would struggle to reject a defence of objective truth.
    The story is a smear. Starmer is already up S*** Creek without a paddle. This is a poor attempt to reconfirm without evidence he is a serial rule breaker. As I said earlier the tabloids accept their twisted reality that is, the more guilty Starmer, the less guilty Johnson.
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    I maintain Keir is great. He’s done a superb job of marginalising the left and locking them out of power for good

    Has he? What are the locks? The gorgeous Angela seems to have come back stronger than you could possibly imagine after his attempt to sideline her. What's preventing a proper leftie replacing SKS in the upcoming leadership election?
  • Options
    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,942

    Quincel said:

    https://twitter.com/sunpolitics/status/1523058171488907265

    Surely Keir will have to sue over this. They’re literally libelling him

    Which bit is the libel?

    They are careful to say “covid rules at the tip” rather than “the law”.
    It's all a matter of perspective, but I'd say the headline is over the line. It's no good (imo) to make a false statement in the headline and walk it back in the article. Though the law may not work that way. And it's clear how a reasonable person would understand the headline.
    I think they have written it beautifully if the objective is to make the offence seem significant but without libelling him

    “Under fire Keir Starmer” - fair comment

    “Caught on camera” - objectively true

    Now the critical bit: is it “flouting [general / national] Covid rules” in a specified geographic location “at council tip”

    Or:

    “Flouting” - what’s he done - “Covid rules at council tip”.

    Given the second is true (rules, not laws, at the tip was to wear a mask) and a natural reading (although possibly not the only natural reading) I think the court would struggle to reject a defence of objective truth.
    The story is a smear. Starmer is already up S*** Creek without a paddle. This is a poor attempt to reconfirm without evidence he is a serial rule breaker. As I said earlier the tabloids accept their twisted reality that is, the more guilty Starmer, the less guilty Johnson.
    And not a soul who was going to vote for Starmer will suddenly decide to vote for Boris on the grounds that Starmer had a beer and a curry during lockdown.

  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,022

    kle4 said:

    kinabalu said:

    TimS said:

    dixiedean said:

    My take. England
    LD's. Big winners. I was more bullish on them than most, but I underestimated it. They are back as a serious force in certain counties.
    Greens did damn well. Also in specific places.
    Labour. Meh. SKS just isn't very good at politics. Be careful what Tories wish for. He hasn't cut through, and there is no chance of a Corbynite replacement.
    Tories was an off the scale disaster. They are facing an electoral pincer movement of tactical voting. I expected 200 losses UK wide. They've far exceeded that in England alone.
    Scotland.
    A bit meh all round really. Labour coming second is of symbolic importance mind. LD's did well.
    Wales.
    A super result for Llafur. Tories have chucked away a decade of hard graft. Dismal.
    NI.
    Could have been much worse

    LDs need to be wary though. They were back as serious players under Swinson post Euro triumph 2019 and after Change UK blew it and became Twitter whiners. Then she got ideas of grandeur. Ed Davey will struggle to get airtime apart from a quick cheesy by election piece to camera with a load of grinning sandalistas holding lib dem diamonds and breaking a cardboard box blue wall with an orange magic lib dem hammer and the electorate will gradually forget his successes over the next 2 years. The extra feet on the ground with the gains will help but it's a long way back to anything over 20 seats I think. A first step but still in precarious territory.
    They just need to seem generally likeable, and have a likeable leader. And for the Labour leader at the time to be unfrightening. That will be enough to score 13 or 14% in a GE and win multiple blue wall seats.
    Davey is likeable. I'd certainly have a small lager and lime with him if he was buying.
    A chunkier, more urban Lembit Opik. Norman Lamb with a seat.
    I don't really see where the Lembit comparisons come in to it, Davey is, well, normal.
    Lembit was everything you'd expect a Mid Welsh Liberal Democrat to be.
    Bit cheeky though
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,850

    Quincel said:

    https://twitter.com/sunpolitics/status/1523058171488907265

    Surely Keir will have to sue over this. They’re literally libelling him

    Which bit is the libel?

    They are careful to say “covid rules at the tip” rather than “the law”.
    It's all a matter of perspective, but I'd say the headline is over the line. It's no good (imo) to make a false statement in the headline and walk it back in the article. Though the law may not work that way. And it's clear how a reasonable person would understand the headline.
    I think they have written it beautifully if the objective is to make the offence seem significant but without libelling him

    “Under fire Keir Starmer” - fair comment

    “Caught on camera” - objectively true

    Now the critical bit: is it “flouting [general / national] Covid rules” in a specified geographic location “at council tip”

    Or:

    “Flouting” - what’s he done - “Covid rules at council tip”.

    Given the second is true (rules, not laws, at the tip was to wear a mask) and a natural reading (although possibly not the only natural reading) I think the court would struggle to reject a defence of objective truth.
    The story is a smear. Starmer is already up S*** Creek without a paddle. This is a poor attempt to reconfirm without evidence he is a serial rule breaker. As I said earlier the tabloids accept their twisted reality that is, the more guilty Starmer, the less guilty Johnson.
    Is he a Czech spy?
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,022

    Quincel said:

    https://twitter.com/sunpolitics/status/1523058171488907265

    Surely Keir will have to sue over this. They’re literally libelling him

    Which bit is the libel?

    They are careful to say “covid rules at the tip” rather than “the law”.
    It's all a matter of perspective, but I'd say the headline is over the line. It's no good (imo) to make a false statement in the headline and walk it back in the article. Though the law may not work that way. And it's clear how a reasonable person would understand the headline.
    I think they have written it beautifully if the objective is to make the offence seem significant but without libelling him

    “Under fire Keir Starmer” - fair comment

    “Caught on camera” - objectively true

    Now the critical bit: is it “flouting [general / national] Covid rules” in a specified geographic location “at council tip”

    Or:

    “Flouting” - what’s he done - “Covid rules at council tip”.

    Given the second is true (rules, not laws, at the tip was to wear a mask) and a natural reading (although possibly not the only natural reading) I think the court would struggle to reject a defence of objective truth.
    The story is a smear. Starmer is already up S*** Creek without a paddle. This is a poor attempt to reconfirm without evidence he is a serial rule breaker. As I said earlier the tabloids accept their twisted reality that is, the more guilty Starmer, the less guilty Johnson.
    If something is true how can it be a smear?
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    Sunday Times claims Boris Johnson personally "despises" his opposite number. An ally says: "He genuinely does not like Keir. He sees this man as part of a privileged, metropolitan, narrow-minded elite uncomfortable with the raw instincts of the vast majority of British people."

    Man of the people

    https://immigrationnews.co.uk/entitlement-aggression-amorality-lessons-from-the-bullingdon-club/
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,930
    stodge said:

    stodge said:


    That's a realistic if slightly negative view (throwing words like "sandalistas" around doesn't suggest the greatest degree of objectivity either).

    No party cares (in truth) from where its votes come. If someone votes for the party as an enthusiastic believer in all aspects of policy or is voting against the other parties out of anger, disillusionment or personal antipathy to a particular candidate, it's still only one vote each.

    Did the Conservatives win in 2019 because voters voted for Boris Johnson or against Jeremy Corbyn? Yes and Yes to some degree and if people vote Lib Dem because they cannot support Johnson (presumably) or Starmer (equally presumably) in 2024, Ed Davey isn't going to be too bothered.

    It's also not just votes but bums on Commons benches that matter. As UKIP discovered, polling 12.5% everywhere gets you nowhere. The key to LD success is to build small islands of success surrounded by vast oceans of irrelevance but if those islands get you to 20-30 seats that "can" give the party a real say in the next Government.

    The LDs are building these new islands out of the wreckage of the 2015 tsunami - some are old islands re-surfacing, others are new. The Greens are also starting to build their own areas of strength and some of those are areas in which the LDs have never had any presence and in others they've supplanted the LDs as the main anti-Conservative voice.

    As I've said elsewhere, the voters are working it out for themselves in lieu of "progressive alliances" and the like - the maximising of the anti-Conservative vote is the game in town currently and whoever is able to put themselves in the position of being the main repository for that vote is going to prosper.

    Sandalistas is a fun descriptor, it's not meant with venom like I'd describe Labour most times or Johnson at the moment, or 2022 Kippers if there are any left! Objectivity is for hard cash situations though, discussion is for passion and a bit of gentle ribbing.
    I can see 20 seats yes, and 30 by decades end unless an unexpected collapse happens to the Tories to low 30s.
    The progressive alliance is double edged. The more it evidences itself the more backlash. Some Voters don't like any idea of a stitch up, however unfair that be as a description of what's happening.
    The greens nationally are probably for now fishing at Labour seats, that's where i see them getting enough strength to challenge - bristol, parts of inner London etc. For sll the talk of Stroud, Molly only managed slightly better by a couple % than the 2005 election for example. They need a decade more of building local bases, perhaps a council or two or a change to proportional representation. Hopefully any English breakthrough won't see them turn into the monsters that are the Scottish Greens.
    Fair points all and apologies for being a tad defensive on a Sunday evening - not even sure why.

    I agree with most of what you're saying - there will certainly be no talking up of electoral pacts or the like or even "progressive alliances" by the LDs if they have any sense. The "understandings" will be tactical not strategic - there's no point fishing in the same waters if there's no need.

    I think the Greens are starting down the LD road - they are slowly but surely attracting voters and members (often among the young but not always). In Newham, they won two seats in the Olympic Park ward, a new seat full of new developments of flats mostly occupied by younger people and thereby succeeded where the Conservatives and the LDs had failed and that was to get a toehold on Newham Council.

    Indeed, not only did the Greens put up a full slate in Newham, they outpolled the Conservatives across the Borough. For all their money and supposed connections, the Newham Conservatives came third - the Greens can now position themselves as the viable alternative to Labour and I could easily see Green candidates finishing second in East and West Ham at the next GE. That's happening in other areas of Inner London (Islington, Hackney) and while it's no immediate challenge to Labour now, it's a big political change.
    No need for apologies but accepted of course!
    I believe they've had some success in Lewisham in the last few years too, they got 12.5% in Deptford in 2015. Im in Norwich and live in a green ward. They have good strength here and have been the opposition on Norwich city council for a while now, in 2010 they were within 2 seats of being the largest party on the council, and got 15% at the GE in Norwich South. Clive Lewis has something of a lock on the constituency for now but I could see it going green in the future as the South is almost all city based with three bigger suburban wards (one of which has a lot of students), the two other suburbs probably make it impossible for now but all 6 city wards could easily vote green. Norwich North is a primarily suburban seat but will go labour from tory next time for certain
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,930

    kle4 said:

    kinabalu said:

    TimS said:

    dixiedean said:

    My take. England
    LD's. Big winners. I was more bullish on them than most, but I underestimated it. They are back as a serious force in certain counties.
    Greens did damn well. Also in specific places.
    Labour. Meh. SKS just isn't very good at politics. Be careful what Tories wish for. He hasn't cut through, and there is no chance of a Corbynite replacement.
    Tories was an off the scale disaster. They are facing an electoral pincer movement of tactical voting. I expected 200 losses UK wide. They've far exceeded that in England alone.
    Scotland.
    A bit meh all round really. Labour coming second is of symbolic importance mind. LD's did well.
    Wales.
    A super result for Llafur. Tories have chucked away a decade of hard graft. Dismal.
    NI.
    Could have been much worse

    LDs need to be wary though. They were back as serious players under Swinson post Euro triumph 2019 and after Change UK blew it and became Twitter whiners. Then she got ideas of grandeur. Ed Davey will struggle to get airtime apart from a quick cheesy by election piece to camera with a load of grinning sandalistas holding lib dem diamonds and breaking a cardboard box blue wall with an orange magic lib dem hammer and the electorate will gradually forget his successes over the next 2 years. The extra feet on the ground with the gains will help but it's a long way back to anything over 20 seats I think. A first step but still in precarious territory.
    They just need to seem generally likeable, and have a likeable leader. And for the Labour leader at the time to be unfrightening. That will be enough to score 13 or 14% in a GE and win multiple blue wall seats.
    Davey is likeable. I'd certainly have a small lager and lime with him if he was buying.
    A chunkier, more urban Lembit Opik. Norman Lamb with a seat.
    I don't really see where the Lembit comparisons come in to it, Davey is, well, normal.
    Lembit was everything you'd expect a Mid Welsh Liberal Democrat to be.
    Bit cheeky though
    Very cheeky. And weirdly obsessed by asteroid defence. Top lad.
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Quincel said:

    https://twitter.com/sunpolitics/status/1523058171488907265

    Surely Keir will have to sue over this. They’re literally libelling him

    Which bit is the libel?

    They are careful to say “covid rules at the tip” rather than “the law”.
    It's all a matter of perspective, but I'd say the headline is over the line. It's no good (imo) to make a false statement in the headline and walk it back in the article. Though the law may not work that way. And it's clear how a reasonable person would understand the headline.
    I think they have written it beautifully if the objective is to make the offence seem significant but without libelling him

    “Under fire Keir Starmer” - fair comment

    “Caught on camera” - objectively true

    Now the critical bit: is it “flouting [general / national] Covid rules” in a specified geographic location “at council tip”

    Or:

    “Flouting” - what’s he done - “Covid rules at council tip”.

    Given the second is true (rules, not laws, at the tip was to wear a mask) and a natural reading (although possibly not the only natural reading) I think the court would struggle to reject a defence of objective truth.
    The story is a smear. Starmer is already up S*** Creek without a paddle. This is a poor attempt to reconfirm without evidence he is a serial rule breaker. As I said earlier the tabloids accept their twisted reality that is, the more guilty Starmer, the less guilty Johnson.
    The tabloids are seriously constrained in what they can say, by what the actual facts are. No Labour lies, no LABOUR LIES headlines. It is that simple.

    The non-twisted reality is this: what destroys Boris is not being FPNed or ticked off by Grey, it is those things happening and his going to the HoC and saying sorry and SKS thundering like Jove and everybody saying SKS has come into his own, Boris is toast. The new normal is, Boris goes to HoC to say sorry and if SKS gets 3 words into his usual routine, the howls of derisive laughter will be audible in France. You may not like it that way, I don't, but that's the way it is.
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    kyf_100 said:

    Quincel said:

    https://twitter.com/sunpolitics/status/1523058171488907265

    Surely Keir will have to sue over this. They’re literally libelling him

    Which bit is the libel?

    They are careful to say “covid rules at the tip” rather than “the law”.
    It's all a matter of perspective, but I'd say the headline is over the line. It's no good (imo) to make a false statement in the headline and walk it back in the article. Though the law may not work that way. And it's clear how a reasonable person would understand the headline.
    I think they have written it beautifully if the objective is to make the offence seem significant but without libelling him

    “Under fire Keir Starmer” - fair comment

    “Caught on camera” - objectively true

    Now the critical bit: is it “flouting [general / national] Covid rules” in a specified geographic location “at council tip”

    Or:

    “Flouting” - what’s he done - “Covid rules at council tip”.

    Given the second is true (rules, not laws, at the tip was to wear a mask) and a natural reading (although possibly not the only natural reading) I think the court would struggle to reject a defence of objective truth.
    The story is a smear. Starmer is already up S*** Creek without a paddle. This is a poor attempt to reconfirm without evidence he is a serial rule breaker. As I said earlier the tabloids accept their twisted reality that is, the more guilty Starmer, the less guilty Johnson.
    And not a soul who was going to vote for Starmer will suddenly decide to vote for Boris on the grounds that Starmer had a beer and a curry during lockdown.
    The "nothing makes any difference" fallacy which crops up with tedious regularity on PB. The counter is, How come we have changes of government then?
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited May 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    Owners of second homes who do not rent out their properties will be hit with double council tax under plans to be unveiled in the Queen’s Speech this week, as Boris Johnson attempts to reset his premiership by focusing on the “people’s priorities”.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/05/08/second-home-owners-face-double-council-tax-tories-aim-win-back/

    Don't a large number of people who have second homes in holiday spots already rent them out as an easy way of covering the costs?

    I am guessing it'll exclude airbnb ers by say stipulating a min 6 month term
    Article says, "that are neither used nor let out by their owners for at least 70 days per year". That sounds perfect for holiday letters.

    Unless 70 days in a row, but then if you were doing down that path you would be putting in rules for a lot longer than a couple of months, as you say something like 6 month terms.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,331
    That was a tricky Wordle today...nearly got it in 3, then...

    Wordle 323 5/6

    🟨⬜⬜⬜⬜
    ⬜⬜🟨🟩⬜
    ⬜🟩🟩🟩🟩
    ⬜🟩🟩🟩🟩
    🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,576
    Croydon popular vote:

    Con 37.4%
    Lab 32.2%
    LD 13.4%
    Green 12.9%
    Taking the Initiative Party 1.9%
    Ind 1.9%

    Changes since 2018:

    Con -2.1%
    Lab -11.7%
    LD +7.1%
    Green +4.4%
    Taking the Initiative Party +1.9%
    Ind +1.3%
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    Owners of second homes who do not rent out their properties will be hit with double council tax under plans to be unveiled in the Queen’s Speech this week, as Boris Johnson attempts to reset his premiership by focusing on the “people’s priorities”.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/05/08/second-home-owners-face-double-council-tax-tories-aim-win-back/

    Don't a large number of people who have second homes in holiday spots already rent them out as an easy way of covering the costs?

    I am guessing it'll exclude airbnb ers by say stipulating a min 6 month term
    Article says, "that are neither used nor let out by their owners for at least 70 days per year". That sounds perfect for holiday letters.

    Unless 70 days in a row, but then if you were doing down that path you would be putting in rules for a lot longer than a couple of months, as you say something like 6 month terms.
    You are buggered if it's a ppty with summer-only appeal because 70 days eats up your own use of it. Otherwise you're laughing I'd have thought

    Hang on: using it *yourself* counts towards the 70 days? That's just silly because how many properties are not used at all for even 70 days a year, and how do you prove the owner hasn't used it (except by poiting cctv at the front door)?
This discussion has been closed.