Just woken up and looked at the the BBC’s English leaderboard. Currently: LD +42 Lab +23 Grn +20 Ref +2 Con -92
Gut reaction: this is utterly appalling from Labour. Truly, utterly, gut-wrenchingly dire. The Tories are going to win the next UK GE, even with Johnson as leader.
I sincerely hope my first reaction is totally incorrect!
Erm. Britain Elects were predicting Labour would net lose English seats compared to 2018 so I've no idea what you are on about.
Good morning but maybe go back to bed and come back when the other half of seats are counted?
I wouldn't hold much faith in that prediction, given how badly it has performed with only a third of the seats declared. Unless you are expecting sudden large gains by the Tories in England?
I agree, merely suggesting that Stuart's 'this is dire' message was wayward.
It is not a “message”. I am not constructing a spin story. It was my entirely honest gut reaction to the headline numbers. Not everything is an “angle”. Some emotions are real, even in AI-world.
I've been holding off commenting, as there are still so many results to come in.
But looking at it broadly: are we seeing a further stratification of the votes in England: the big cities going strongly Labour, with rural areas and small towns *tending* towards Cons?
I can see Starmer appealing to the urban set - less so to people outside London or the conurbations.
That could work one of two ways, though
One is Starmer isn't going far enough.
The other is that the anti-Conservative vote is organising itself pretty well.
Hard to tell which applies here. But "We hate Johnson, aren't inspired by Starmer but he'll have to do" seems like a plausible message.
Meanwhile Havering Conservatives have lost their only non-Romford ward. They still have paths to a viable minority control, but they need a good surprise somewhere.
And Gosport Lib Dems are apparently super confident, but counting hasn't started there.
Just woken up and looked at the the BBC’s English leaderboard. Currently: LD +42 Lab +23 Grn +20 Ref +2 Con -92
Gut reaction: this is utterly appalling from Labour. Truly, utterly, gut-wrenchingly dire. The Tories are going to win the next UK GE, even with Johnson as leader.
I sincerely hope my first reaction is totally incorrect!
As a disappointed Tory I think you're wrong to be be so pessimistic. It's poor for Labour, good for the LDs and as predicted for the Tories. The biggest loser may well be Labour because of poor tactics and bad expectation management. However, the result will probably keep Boris as PM rather longer. I'd prefer a new leader now, as the next GE is winnable with a more centrist approach. Starmer will also be safe because the London successes and possibly some Scottish progress will be spun as a big win. The latter might be significant - the former probably isn't.
Fair enough. Your analysis is more considered than my early-morning gut reaction.
Agreed: Scotland now crucially important for Starmer. Imagine if the big headline north of the border is SLD breakthrough and not SLab breakthrough?
Picture not so bad for @BorisJohnson outside the capital. But - as we said in this curtainraiser - a political strategy where you end up losing Mayfair but rely on continued support from former Lab voters in Hartlepool is somewhat risky
The psychology of all this is interesting. People voting Tory in Hartlepool are Tories. That they or their ancestors voted Labour 25 years ago doesn’t make them Labour voters any more than those voting Labour in Wandsworth are Tory voters.
The world has changed. There are more Hartlepools than Mayfairs.
A lot of the change in Hartlepool is demographic and also just look at the sort of homes now being built there. Lots of 4 or 5 bed detached around the old Wynyard area. There are really nice parts too in other areas. It is not a grim northern town although parts of the city centre are. Like Bishop Auckland in that respect.
Picture not so bad for @BorisJohnson outside the capital. But - as we said in this curtainraiser - a political strategy where you end up losing Mayfair but rely on continued support from former Lab voters in Hartlepool is somewhat risky
The problem with the Lib Dems is that they are essentially invisible nationally. With hindsight, the Lib Dem's high point in 2005 was not driven by a strong *belief* in Lib Dem messages or values, but in a not-Labour-or-Conservative anti-Iraq war rebellion amongst mainly Labour voters.
When the Conservative and Labour parties evolved post 2010, the Lib Dems sunk. They have to become more than a protest party, and IMO they're not getting the national coverage for that to happen. Their other route, building up via local government, is feasible but very long-term.
The Lib Dems need a strong, charismatic leader who can robustly voice popular, sane policies. Davey isn't it. But the leader also probably needs to be in the HoC to get the national media attention. And that's their core problem.
I’m a serious sceptic when it comes to musk’s motives in buying Twitter, but there is a suggestion that that Musk will might open an API to the Twitter database. That would open the possibility of third parties competing to create better ways to interact with Twitter. Interesting idea.
I've been holding off commenting, as there are still so many results to come in.
But looking at it broadly: are we seeing a further stratification of the votes in England: the big cities going strongly Labour, with rural areas and small towns *tending* towards Cons?
I can see Starmer appealing to the urban set - less so to people outside London or the conurbations.
That could work one of two ways, though
One is Starmer isn't going far enough.
The other is that the anti-Conservative vote is organising itself pretty well.
Hard to tell which applies here. But "We hate Johnson, aren't inspired by Starmer but he'll have to do" seems like a plausible message.
(Snip)
Indeed. Both the Conservatives and Labour have several potential routes to victory in the next GE.
Picture not so bad for @BorisJohnson outside the capital. But - as we said in this curtainraiser - a political strategy where you end up losing Mayfair but rely on continued support from former Lab voters in Hartlepool is somewhat risky
The psychology of all this is interesting. People voting Tory in Hartlepool are Tories. That they or their ancestors voted Labour 25 years ago doesn’t make them Labour voters any more than those voting Labour in Wandsworth are Tory voters.
The world has changed. There are more Hartlepools than Mayfairs.
Quite. You need 326 seats to win. It doesn't matter whether you get them in places like Hartlepool, or in places like Mayfair.
But, for many journalists and commentators, some seats matter far more than others.
Just woken up and looked at the the BBC’s English leaderboard. Currently: LD +42 Lab +23 Grn +20 Ref +2 Con -92
Gut reaction: this is utterly appalling from Labour. Truly, utterly, gut-wrenchingly dire. The Tories are going to win the next UK GE, even with Johnson as leader.
I sincerely hope my first reaction is totally incorrect!
Erm. Britain Elects were predicting Labour would net lose English seats compared to 2018 so I've no idea what you are on about.
Good morning but maybe go back to bed and come back when the other half of seats are counted?
I wouldn't hold much faith in that prediction, given how badly it has performed with only a third of the seats declared. Unless you are expecting sudden large gains by the Tories in England?
I agree, merely suggesting that Stuart's 'this is dire' message was wayward.
It is not a “message”. I am not constructing a spin story. It was my entirely honest gut reaction to the headline numbers. Not everything is an “angle”. Some emotions are real, even in AI-world.
Now you’ve woken up though, my posts have put your right though, havn’t they?
Off-topic but Bloody Covid strikes again. Were three of us going to see Nick Mason's Saucerful of Secrets tonight in Manchestoh and now its only two. One has wife and kids both struck down, not well, positive tests, he's also now feeling shocking.
Its fine to say "we have to live with it" and I agree. Its just that living with it keeps knackering my weekend plans - this is the third that has been partly or wholly kyboshed by it in the last 6 months.
Picture not so bad for @BorisJohnson outside the capital. But - as we said in this curtainraiser - a political strategy where you end up losing Mayfair but rely on continued support from former Lab voters in Hartlepool is somewhat risky
The problem with the Lib Dems is that they are essentially invisible nationally. With hindsight, the Lib Dem's high point in 2005 was not driven by a strong *belief* in Lib Dem messages or values, but in a not-Labour-or-Conservative anti-Iraq war rebellion amongst mainly Labour voters.
When the Conservative and Labour parties evolved post 2010, the Lib Dems sunk. They have to become more than a protest party, and IMO they're not getting the national coverage for that to happen. Their other route, building up via local government, is feasible but very long-term.
The Lib Dems need a strong, charismatic leader who can robustly voice popular, sane policies. Davey isn't it. But the leader also probably needs to be in the HoC to get the national media attention. And that's their core problem.
Picture not so bad for @BorisJohnson outside the capital. But - as we said in this curtainraiser - a political strategy where you end up losing Mayfair but rely on continued support from former Lab voters in Hartlepool is somewhat risky
The psychology of all this is interesting. People voting Tory in Hartlepool are Tories. That they or their ancestors voted Labour 25 years ago doesn’t make them Labour voters any more than those voting Labour in Wandsworth are Tory voters.
The world has changed. There are more Hartlepools than Mayfairs.
A lot of the change in Hartlepool is demographic and also just look at the sort of homes now being built there. Lots of 4 or 5 bed detached around the old Wynyard area. There are really nice parts too in other areas. It is not a grim northern town although parts of the city centre are. Like Bishop Auckland in that respect.
It's an important feature of a lot of seats that have trended Conservative in the North and Midlands that good housing is quite affordable.
House prices in London are stupid, with the result that rates of home ownership are much lower than the national average, which in turn, depresses the Conservative vote.
Picture not so bad for @BorisJohnson outside the capital. But - as we said in this curtainraiser - a political strategy where you end up losing Mayfair but rely on continued support from former Lab voters in Hartlepool is somewhat risky
The psychology of all this is interesting. People voting Tory in Hartlepool are Tories. That they or their ancestors voted Labour 25 years ago doesn’t make them Labour voters any more than those voting Labour in Wandsworth are Tory voters.
The world has changed. There are more Hartlepools than Mayfairs.
A lot of the change in Hartlepool is demographic and also just look at the sort of homes now being built there. Lots of 4 or 5 bed detached around the old Wynyard area. There are really nice parts too in other areas. It is not a grim northern town although parts of the city centre are. Like Bishop Auckland in that respect.
It's an important feature of a lot of seats that have trended Conservative in the North and Midlands that good housing is quite affordable.
House prices in London are stupid, with the result that rates of home ownership are much lower than the national average, which in turn, depresses the Conservative vote.
Yes, I'm sure people appreciate the lower council tax in Wandsworth but it's chicken feed next to rents and house prices.
Picture not so bad for @BorisJohnson outside the capital. But - as we said in this curtainraiser - a political strategy where you end up losing Mayfair but rely on continued support from former Lab voters in Hartlepool is somewhat risky
The psychology of all this is interesting. People voting Tory in Hartlepool are Tories. That they or their ancestors voted Labour 25 years ago doesn’t make them Labour voters any more than those voting Labour in Wandsworth are Tory voters.
The world has changed. There are more Hartlepools than Mayfairs.
A lot of the change in Hartlepool is demographic and also just look at the sort of homes now being built there. Lots of 4 or 5 bed detached around the old Wynyard area. There are really nice parts too in other areas. It is not a grim northern town although parts of the city centre are. Like Bishop Auckland in that respect.
It's an important feature of a lot of seats that have trended Conservative in the North and Midlands that good housing is quite affordable.
House prices in London are stupid, with the result that rates of home ownership are much lower than the national average, which in turn, depresses the Conservative vote.
There is that. The fact that the major cities have disproportionate percentages of graduates also plays a factor. Many Labour councils have also become quite technocratic and, again in the major cities, are also comfortable seeing professionals move into gentrifying districts - they improve the overall wealth of the area / council tax base but also now tend to more Labour-leaning.
BTW, what happened in Enfield? Labour losing 10 seats seems out of whack with the rest of London.
"Triple Tory trouble in London with Westminster poised to follow Wandsworth and Barnet in falling to Labour: Capital turns even more RED in night of shocks for Conservatives"
So we're seeing the Tories taking an absolute beating because people are choosing to vote for the party most likely to oust them? This is the point about "just vote Labour" campaigns - futile if the challenger is a Green or a LibDem. Vote for them instead. Just remember the golden rule - Don't Vote Tory.
Picture not so bad for @BorisJohnson outside the capital. But - as we said in this curtainraiser - a political strategy where you end up losing Mayfair but rely on continued support from former Lab voters in Hartlepool is somewhat risky
The psychology of all this is interesting. People voting Tory in Hartlepool are Tories. That they or their ancestors voted Labour 25 years ago doesn’t make them Labour voters any more than those voting Labour in Wandsworth are Tory voters.
The world has changed. There are more Hartlepools than Mayfairs.
A lot of the change in Hartlepool is demographic and also just look at the sort of homes now being built there. Lots of 4 or 5 bed detached around the old Wynyard area. There are really nice parts too in other areas. It is not a grim northern town although parts of the city centre are. Like Bishop Auckland in that respect.
It's an important feature of a lot of seats that have trended Conservative in the North and Midlands that good housing is quite affordable.
House prices in London are stupid, with the result that rates of home ownership are much lower than the national average, which in turn, depresses the Conservative vote.
There is that. The fact that the major cities have disproportionate percentages of graduates also plays a factor. Many Labour councils have also become quite technocratic and, again in the major cities, are also comfortable seeing professionals move into gentrifying districts - they improve the overall wealth of the area / council tax base but also now tend to more Labour-leaning.
BTW, what happened in Enfield? Labour losing 10 seats seems out of whack with the rest of London.
Picture not so bad for @BorisJohnson outside the capital. But - as we said in this curtainraiser - a political strategy where you end up losing Mayfair but rely on continued support from former Lab voters in Hartlepool is somewhat risky
The psychology of all this is interesting. People voting Tory in Hartlepool are Tories. That they or their ancestors voted Labour 25 years ago doesn’t make them Labour voters any more than those voting Labour in Wandsworth are Tory voters.
The world has changed. There are more Hartlepools than Mayfairs.
A lot of the change in Hartlepool is demographic and also just look at the sort of homes now being built there. Lots of 4 or 5 bed detached around the old Wynyard area. There are really nice parts too in other areas. It is not a grim northern town although parts of the city centre are. Like Bishop Auckland in that respect.
It's an important feature of a lot of seats that have trended Conservative in the North and Midlands that good housing is quite affordable.
House prices in London are stupid, with the result that rates of home ownership are much lower than the national average, which in turn, depresses the Conservative vote.
There is that. The fact that the major cities have disproportionate percentages of graduates also plays a factor. Many Labour councils have also become quite technocratic and, again in the major cities, are also comfortable seeing professionals move into gentrifying districts - they improve the overall wealth of the area / council tax base but also now tend to more Labour-leaning.
BTW, what happened in Enfield? Labour losing 10 seats seems out of whack with the rest of London.
"Triple Tory trouble in London with Westminster poised to follow Wandsworth and Barnet in falling to Labour: Capital turns even more RED in night of shocks for Conservatives"
The Lib Dems appear to have made very solid progress in Merton.
People are voting against the Tories for the challenger. If that's Labour they vote Labour. Or LibDem. Or Green. This is good! Tories have lost 19.8% of held seats declared so far and a stack of eye-popping councils. That's supposedly a good night for Boris?
Off-topic but Bloody Covid strikes again. Were three of us going to see Nick Mason's Saucerful of Secrets tonight in Manchestoh and now its only two. One has wife and kids both struck down, not well, positive tests, he's also now feeling shocking.
Its fine to say "we have to live with it" and I agree. Its just that living with it keeps knackering my weekend plans - this is the third that has been partly or wholly kyboshed by it in the last 6 months.
That’s life, sadly.
I’m a little envious, I wanted to see them when they came to Newcastle but I had tickets to Alan Partridge instead.
Picture not so bad for @BorisJohnson outside the capital. But - as we said in this curtainraiser - a political strategy where you end up losing Mayfair but rely on continued support from former Lab voters in Hartlepool is somewhat risky
The psychology of all this is interesting. People voting Tory in Hartlepool are Tories. That they or their ancestors voted Labour 25 years ago doesn’t make them Labour voters any more than those voting Labour in Wandsworth are Tory voters.
The world has changed. There are more Hartlepools than Mayfairs.
A lot of the change in Hartlepool is demographic and also just look at the sort of homes now being built there. Lots of 4 or 5 bed detached around the old Wynyard area. There are really nice parts too in other areas. It is not a grim northern town although parts of the city centre are. Like Bishop Auckland in that respect.
It's an important feature of a lot of seats that have trended Conservative in the North and Midlands that good housing is quite affordable.
House prices in London are stupid, with the result that rates of home ownership are much lower than the national average, which in turn, depresses the Conservative vote.
There is that. The fact that the major cities have disproportionate percentages of graduates also plays a factor. Many Labour councils have also become quite technocratic and, again in the major cities, are also comfortable seeing professionals move into gentrifying districts - they improve the overall wealth of the area / council tax base but also now tend to more Labour-leaning.
BTW, what happened in Enfield? Labour losing 10 seats seems out of whack with the rest of London.
Corbyn hangover.
When labour do badly it’s Corbyn. When they do well the brand is detoxified.
Picture not so bad for @BorisJohnson outside the capital. But - as we said in this curtainraiser - a political strategy where you end up losing Mayfair but rely on continued support from former Lab voters in Hartlepool is somewhat risky
The psychology of all this is interesting. People voting Tory in Hartlepool are Tories. That they or their ancestors voted Labour 25 years ago doesn’t make them Labour voters any more than those voting Labour in Wandsworth are Tory voters.
The world has changed. There are more Hartlepools than Mayfairs.
A lot of the change in Hartlepool is demographic and also just look at the sort of homes now being built there. Lots of 4 or 5 bed detached around the old Wynyard area. There are really nice parts too in other areas. It is not a grim northern town although parts of the city centre are. Like Bishop Auckland in that respect.
It's an important feature of a lot of seats that have trended Conservative in the North and Midlands that good housing is quite affordable.
House prices in London are stupid, with the result that rates of home ownership are much lower than the national average, which in turn, depresses the Conservative vote.
This is where I agree with the likes of Bartholomew Roberts. They have to focus on building houses for people.
It cannot be a coincidence as renters move outside of London to places like Wycombe and Woking these places trend away from labour.
My boss bought a house on the new wynyard estate. It’s a lovely, large, house in a nice area with a view over a wood. It cost less than a two bed flat in a run down area of London.
Picture not so bad for @BorisJohnson outside the capital. But - as we said in this curtainraiser - a political strategy where you end up losing Mayfair but rely on continued support from former Lab voters in Hartlepool is somewhat risky
The psychology of all this is interesting. People voting Tory in Hartlepool are Tories. That they or their ancestors voted Labour 25 years ago doesn’t make them Labour voters any more than those voting Labour in Wandsworth are Tory voters.
The world has changed. There are more Hartlepools than Mayfairs.
A lot of the change in Hartlepool is demographic and also just look at the sort of homes now being built there. Lots of 4 or 5 bed detached around the old Wynyard area. There are really nice parts too in other areas. It is not a grim northern town although parts of the city centre are. Like Bishop Auckland in that respect.
It's an important feature of a lot of seats that have trended Conservative in the North and Midlands that good housing is quite affordable.
House prices in London are stupid, with the result that rates of home ownership are much lower than the national average, which in turn, depresses the Conservative vote.
There is that. The fact that the major cities have disproportionate percentages of graduates also plays a factor. Many Labour councils have also become quite technocratic and, again in the major cities, are also comfortable seeing professionals move into gentrifying districts - they improve the overall wealth of the area / council tax base but also now tend to more Labour-leaning.
BTW, what happened in Enfield? Labour losing 10 seats seems out of whack with the rest of London.
Corbyn hangover.
When labour do badly it’s Corbyn. When they do well the brand is detoxified.
I use to live on the border of Enfield and Edmonton. I imagine the sizeable Jewish communities in Enfield are the driver. Takes a long time to rebuild trust...
Picture not so bad for @BorisJohnson outside the capital. But - as we said in this curtainraiser - a political strategy where you end up losing Mayfair but rely on continued support from former Lab voters in Hartlepool is somewhat risky
The psychology of all this is interesting. People voting Tory in Hartlepool are Tories. That they or their ancestors voted Labour 25 years ago doesn’t make them Labour voters any more than those voting Labour in Wandsworth are Tory voters.
The world has changed. There are more Hartlepools than Mayfairs.
A lot of the change in Hartlepool is demographic and also just look at the sort of homes now being built there. Lots of 4 or 5 bed detached around the old Wynyard area. There are really nice parts too in other areas. It is not a grim northern town although parts of the city centre are. Like Bishop Auckland in that respect.
It's an important feature of a lot of seats that have trended Conservative in the North and Midlands that good housing is quite affordable.
House prices in London are stupid, with the result that rates of home ownership are much lower than the national average, which in turn, depresses the Conservative vote.
This is where I agree with the likes of Bartholomew Roberts. They have to focus on building houses for people.
It cannot be a coincidence as renters move outside of London to places like Wycombe and Woking these places trend away from labour.
My boss bought a house on the new wynyard estate. It’s a lovely, large, house in a nice area with a view over a wood. It cost less than a two bed flat in a run down area of London.
Question is whether buying a big house in an estate turns non-Conservative voters Conservative, or imports Conservative voters into new places, or somewhere in between?
One of the reasons that Brighton/Hove (and Worthing might be next) are turning red is Londoners moving out and taking their barbarous voting habits with them. Something similar seems to be happening in new build bits of Havering.
Picture not so bad for @BorisJohnson outside the capital. But - as we said in this curtainraiser - a political strategy where you end up losing Mayfair but rely on continued support from former Lab voters in Hartlepool is somewhat risky
The psychology of all this is interesting. People voting Tory in Hartlepool are Tories. That they or their ancestors voted Labour 25 years ago doesn’t make them Labour voters any more than those voting Labour in Wandsworth are Tory voters.
The world has changed. There are more Hartlepools than Mayfairs.
A lot of the change in Hartlepool is demographic and also just look at the sort of homes now being built there. Lots of 4 or 5 bed detached around the old Wynyard area. There are really nice parts too in other areas. It is not a grim northern town although parts of the city centre are. Like Bishop Auckland in that respect.
It's an important feature of a lot of seats that have trended Conservative in the North and Midlands that good housing is quite affordable.
House prices in London are stupid, with the result that rates of home ownership are much lower than the national average, which in turn, depresses the Conservative vote.
This is where I agree with the likes of Bartholomew Roberts. They have to focus on building houses for people.
It cannot be a coincidence as renters move outside of London to places like Wycombe and Woking these places trend away from labour.
My boss bought a house on the new wynyard estate. It’s a lovely, large, house in a nice area with a view over a wood. It cost less than a two bed flat in a run down area of London.
Question is whether buying a big house in an estate turns non-Conservative voters Conservative, or imports Conservative voters into new places, or somewhere in between?
One of the reasons that Brighton/Hove (and Worthing might be next) are turning red is Londoners moving out and taking their barbarous voting habits with them. Something similar seems to be happening in new build bits of Havering.
Owning one's own home does tend to shift voters to the right over the long term. Brighton/Hove is more about it becoming a counter-cultural place.
"Triple Tory trouble in London with Westminster poised to follow Wandsworth and Barnet in falling to Labour: Capital turns even more RED in night of shocks for Conservatives"
Picture not so bad for @BorisJohnson outside the capital. But - as we said in this curtainraiser - a political strategy where you end up losing Mayfair but rely on continued support from former Lab voters in Hartlepool is somewhat risky
The psychology of all this is interesting. People voting Tory in Hartlepool are Tories. That they or their ancestors voted Labour 25 years ago doesn’t make them Labour voters any more than those voting Labour in Wandsworth are Tory voters.
The world has changed. There are more Hartlepools than Mayfairs.
A lot of the change in Hartlepool is demographic and also just look at the sort of homes now being built there. Lots of 4 or 5 bed detached around the old Wynyard area. There are really nice parts too in other areas. It is not a grim northern town although parts of the city centre are. Like Bishop Auckland in that respect.
It's an important feature of a lot of seats that have trended Conservative in the North and Midlands that good housing is quite affordable.
House prices in London are stupid, with the result that rates of home ownership are much lower than the national average, which in turn, depresses the Conservative vote.
This is where I agree with the likes of Bartholomew Roberts. They have to focus on building houses for people.
It cannot be a coincidence as renters move outside of London to places like Wycombe and Woking these places trend away from labour.
My boss bought a house on the new wynyard estate. It’s a lovely, large, house in a nice area with a view over a wood. It cost less than a two bed flat in a run down area of London.
Question is whether buying a big house in an estate turns non-Conservative voters Conservative, or imports Conservative voters into new places, or somewhere in between?
One of the reasons that Brighton/Hove (and Worthing might be next) are turning red is Londoners moving out and taking their barbarous voting habits with them. Something similar seems to be happening in new build bits of Havering.
It’s a very large part of the reason Oxfordshire has turned away from the Conservatives.
Until a few years ago, Oxfordshire’s four districts and county council were all Tory. Only Oxford City was Labour. As of this morning, the Conservatives have lost all but one of the districts.
Picture not so bad for @BorisJohnson outside the capital. But - as we said in this curtainraiser - a political strategy where you end up losing Mayfair but rely on continued support from former Lab voters in Hartlepool is somewhat risky
The problem with the Lib Dems is that they are essentially invisible nationally. With hindsight, the Lib Dem's high point in 2005 was not driven by a strong *belief* in Lib Dem messages or values, but in a not-Labour-or-Conservative anti-Iraq war rebellion amongst mainly Labour voters.
When the Conservative and Labour parties evolved post 2010, the Lib Dems sunk. They have to become more than a protest party, and IMO they're not getting the national coverage for that to happen. Their other route, building up via local government, is feasible but very long-term.
The Lib Dems need a strong, charismatic leader who can robustly voice popular, sane policies. Davey isn't it. But the leader also probably needs to be in the HoC to get the national media attention. And that's their core problem.
It rests on whether Cooper comes good with some more experience.
"Triple Tory trouble in London with Westminster poised to follow Wandsworth and Barnet in falling to Labour: Capital turns even more RED in night of shocks for Conservatives"
Just woken up and looked at the the BBC’s English leaderboard. Currently: LD +42 Lab +23 Grn +20 Ref +2 Con -92
Gut reaction: this is utterly appalling from Labour. Truly, utterly, gut-wrenchingly dire. The Tories are going to win the next UK GE, even with Johnson as leader.
I sincerely hope my first reaction is totally incorrect!
Erm. Britain Elects were predicting Labour would net lose English seats compared to 2018 so I've no idea what you are on about.
Good morning but maybe go back to bed and come back when the other half of seats are counted?
I wouldn't hold much faith in that prediction, given how badly it has performed with only a third of the seats declared. Unless you are expecting sudden large gains by the Tories in England?
I agree, merely suggesting that Stuart's 'this is dire' message was wayward.
It is not a “message”. I am not constructing a spin story. It was my entirely honest gut reaction to the headline numbers. Not everything is an “angle”. Some emotions are real, even in AI-world.
Now you’ve woken up though, my posts have put your right though, havn’t they?
Hate to be brutally honest when you’ve been up all night drinking boxed wine, but I never read your posts. Certain names just cause my scrolling finger to keep on moving. Sorry.
Comments
For those talking about mid-term, as if this is a regular electoral cycle, I respectfully disagree.
https://twitter.com/PA/status/1522446760228098048
One is Starmer isn't going far enough.
The other is that the anti-Conservative vote is organising itself pretty well.
Hard to tell which applies here. But "We hate Johnson, aren't inspired by Starmer but he'll have to do" seems like a plausible message.
Meanwhile Havering Conservatives have lost their only non-Romford ward. They still have paths to a viable minority control, but they need a good surprise somewhere.
And Gosport Lib Dems are apparently super confident, but counting hasn't started there.
They point to the Conservatives losing their majority at the next election, but not a Labour victory.
Tory down one, Lib Dem up one.
Nice to know I’m not the only Libdem in the Tory village 😆
Agreed: Scotland now crucially important for Starmer. Imagine if the big headline north of the border is SLD breakthrough and not SLab breakthrough?
When the Conservative and Labour parties evolved post 2010, the Lib Dems sunk. They have to become more than a protest party, and IMO they're not getting the national coverage for that to happen. Their other route, building up via local government, is feasible but very long-term.
The Lib Dems need a strong, charismatic leader who can robustly voice popular, sane policies. Davey isn't it. But the leader also probably needs to be in the HoC to get the national media attention. And that's their core problem.
That would open the possibility of third parties competing to create better ways to interact with Twitter. Interesting idea.
Its fine to say "we have to live with it" and I agree. Its just that living with it keeps knackering my weekend plans - this is the third that has been partly or wholly kyboshed by it in the last 6 months.
House prices in London are stupid, with the result that rates of home ownership are much lower than the national average, which in turn, depresses the Conservative vote.
BTW, what happened in Enfield? Labour losing 10 seats seems out of whack with the rest of London.
Can't see how results so far are bad for Starmer.
I’m a little envious, I wanted to see them when they came to Newcastle but I had tickets to Alan Partridge instead.
It cannot be a coincidence as renters move outside of London to places like Wycombe and Woking these places trend away from labour.
My boss bought a house on the new wynyard estate. It’s a lovely, large, house in a nice area with a view over a wood. It cost less than a two bed flat in a run down area of London.
One of the reasons that Brighton/Hove (and Worthing might be next) are turning red is Londoners moving out and taking their barbarous voting habits with them. Something similar seems to be happening in new build bits of Havering.
https://www.gazettelive.co.uk/news/teesside-news/hartlepool-tory-councillor-continues-election-23878677
Until a few years ago, Oxfordshire’s four districts and county council were all Tory. Only Oxford City was Labour. As of this morning, the Conservatives have lost all but one of the districts.
Perfect for Boris.
Bit rubbish if the aim is a well-run country in the meantime.