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For LAB and the BBC LE2022 is more than just Wandsworth – politicalbetting.com
For LAB and the BBC LE2022 is more than just Wandsworth – politicalbetting.com
If you have been watching the BBC election coverage overnight you could have been forgiven that LE2022 was simply confined to the London Borough of Wandsworth. It had about 20 times the coverage of any other election and even the other Tory London loss, Barnet, struggled to get a look in.
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But the progress in remain areas clouds the flop in the red wall.
FIRST! And still wide awake. Like some sort of junkie 😆
Mike is ploughing a lonely furrow with this one.
Labour triumphant=alternative government in preparation
I remember the locals in 1995 and 2007/8,. This isn't them.
And the tories have held Westminster for 58 years, since its creation in 1964. They have just lost it, we are told.
p.s. your rude comment about the LibDems is not very clever.
And it's none other than Geoffrey Samuel, who was first elected to the council in 1957.
https://www.twickenhamconservatives.com/people/cllr-geoffrey-samuel
https://cabnet.richmond.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?XXR=0&ID=113&RPID=523586444
The other day the LibDems gained a massive council swing in Surrey which is why I tipped them to gain control of Woking council at 2-1. But can they do it?
Will they continue it out into Surrey?
It's possible that at the next General Election the Conservatives will be reduced to a rump of old Brexit voters in the northern red wall.
= How to lose the affluent south.
It’s boring. And it’s not a sexy headline. But it’s actually true. It’s the sort of thing here on PB we should have enough respect for a betting site to agree about, and educate the rest of the world.
But the Conservatives have the same problem in reverse. How do you win back the south if you're banging a drum which repulses them?
I'm chewing my finger nails about Woking
And we have opposition party in Labour more obsessed recently in Partygate (that can look after itself from here) than making clear how they actually could mange the economic crisis themselves.
As I explained in a recent post in one of tonight threads, in answer to Horse who we havn’t had a whinnie out of since, bad economic news is not necessarily a Labour bounce - in 1992 the voters preferred incumbents to manage the recession and the recovery better. Arguably without a early nineties recession against a different backdrop, Labours tax raising public spending manifesto might even have won? So this looming recession might actually kill off Labours chances.
To be balanced, fair and honest here, every policy can be attacked and it’s downsides flagged up, like downsides of Labours windfall tax flagged up, but in order to best steal voters over the economic pain, they need to get to microphones first with solid policies. The lazy complacent road of just expecting to capitalise on economic downturn without hard work and policy bravery, 1992 lies at the end of that road.
It's depressing.
LD +42
Lab +23
Grn +20
Ref +2
Con -92
Gut reaction: this is utterly appalling from Labour. Truly, utterly, gut-wrenchingly dire. The Tories are going to win the next UK GE, even with Johnson as leader.
I sincerely hope my first reaction is totally incorrect!
Good morning but maybe go back to bed and come back when the other half of seats are counted?
https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/05/our-local-election-forecast-for-2022/
If it does fall, it's seismic.
“ It does look as though we're heading for a slightly lower turnout than in other recent local elections. On average the turnout is down by 1 percentage point on 2018 in the BBC's key wards, and by 2.5 points on last year. However, there is no sign that where turnout fell the most, the Conservatives particularly suffered as a result.”
So he;s calling it a lot of vote switching rather than just stay at home?
I have only just started to catch up on the night's events but it seems largely as I predicted, a good night for the lib dems (and greens) , disappointing but better than expected for the conservatives, but London apart, all the questions I posed about Starmer being too colourless and bland with no real answers seems to be confirmed
Indeed without partygate, Starmer would be looking for a new job this morning, but of course we have yet to see the Scots and Welsh results that may culminate in Boris losing his
I would just caution the London posters on here, and as referred to in the thread, do not think London represents most of the country, it does not and Brexit was the confirmation
If the SLDs do just a bit better than their well-performing English cousins, could they be challenging for that vital silver-medal podium position? Maybe not this year, but they might not be a million miles off?
For example, if Labour's polling revival in Scotland translates to votes then that's good news. And it's not just London. Places like Portsmouth and Southampton have fallen to Labour.
If I were the tories I'd be getting really really worried that they are becoming a rump of old Brexit voters in the northern red wall.
And despite Moon Rabbit's optimism, if the economy continues to tank and cost of living bites (it will) don't expect them to stay loyal to Boris forever.
The ones in trouble here are the tories.
The huge worry for Conservatives is that those aren't solid foundations for the future. They will fade even as the people who voted for Brexit increasingly die out.
I'm being serious: take a breath you tories because you are being reduced to a northern red wall rump and even that isn't a secure foundation for the future.
Labour have done well. The LibDems very well. But it's the Conservatives who are in danger of dying out.
And just how Woke IS Woking?
But it always is isn’t it 😉
I think it may flip to LibDem control but it's tight.
p.s. it isn't at all woke!
The survey found that 'Partygate' scandal had not changed an overwhelming majority's (73%) way of voting in the local elections. Interestingly, it did find that politics in Westminster and Cardiff would influence the vote of 50% of respondents. The major issue for our readers was a lack of focus on North Wales from Cardiff, with 22% saying that was the most important concern in this year's local election.
One person said: "Local politics should be more about local and less about politics. This doesn't affect Cardiff or Westminster it affects communities. I will vote for someone who gives their all for their community not their party."
The other issues that would influence people's votes were who could help struggling town centres and work towards providing good local jobs.
People also focused on transport investment and coastal defence as key issues, as well as holiday homes being left empty.
Most readers felt unheard by their elected representatives, with one reader saying: "Work for the benefit of your local area and not for the political party that you represent." Another reader advised politicians to: "Visit people more frequently than every four years, not just when they need the votes."
65% of participants felt that their vote would not make a difference
The last 8 years have seen this country more divided than at any time in my life and that seems to be increasing. The Conservatives are now becoming a regional northern party.
Ask tlg86 who will explain ward by ward just how difficult it is for the LibDems to win overall control. There are 10 seats out of 30 up for grabs and they have to flip 4. It's very very tight and if they do it, it will be remarkable. I got 2-1 odds and Quincey suggested that, if anything, that was a bit short. Tlg86 concurred.
And it would cause a number of Surrey Conservative MPs to be very very nervous. Many of them are big names too ...
"This is not a performance which indicates a party on course for a general election victory, or even to be largest party".
The thing to watch is the Lib Dem share in the Westminster polls. I think they might gain from Labour as the election nears and people start to say how they will vote rather than how they’d like to vote.
So far your party has had a very decent set of results. I hope you enjoy it.
Hmmm ...
You have the gall to criticise others for making trite comments?
The truth is the Conservative Party puts up more candidates in more wards than any other and after today will still have more councillors across Britain than any other.
Look at the number of councillors won by everyone.
psephologists been saying for weeks that in 2018 Labour had a bit of a “meh” result at the time, but considering everything that has happened in the same territory since, 2018 is good, just holding 2018, just standing still, is a far better result than those which have happened since.
In other words, if at the 2019 general election Labour had got those 2018 votes they wouldn’t have melted down to that degree. It’s boring. And it’s not a sexy headline. But it’s actually true. It’s the sort of thing here on PB we should have enough respect for a betting site to agree about, and educate the rest of the world.
Secondly, Where a whole council isn’t up at once, but thirds over 4 years, direct comparisons with four years ago isn’t the whole story. What has happened in between plays a part in a distinct local narrative. Last week HY said Starmer needs to take Swindon. When you look into it Tories had such an excellent result there last year, taking seats that forever have been Labour, in all fairness it actually takes a few elections to work back from such bad years? You screaming “they havn’t made much progress in Dudley, pathetic” versus Labour in Dudley all smiles with progress they have made.
If the Tories do lose over 200 seats from here in meltdown evening session, will you change that awful avatar?
I expect it will do so in Scotland but re Boris I am not sure his mps will replace him yet
On the wider point about the economy the UK, and indeed all governments, are facing an extreme economic crisis over the next few years and I am not convinced when there is no money voters will turn to labour
However there is a lot of water to flow under the bridge and many variables before GE 24 which tonight has not really provided any answers
Wow.
Incredible
Libdems win. 😃
The rumour is that they have lost it to Labour.
Con 35.8%
Lab 34.8%
LD 13.4%
Green 9.3%
Daily Mail
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10788325/Triple-Tory-trouble-London-boroughs-Westminster-Wandsworth-Barnet-fall.html
They are, apparently, 'furious'
'Some interesting details from a source at the Westminster count.
Westminster Tories appear furious at Boris Johnson with many talking about how he has to go and a serious word needs to be had.
They don't think he will resign so want him pushed.
Apparently, the West End result has appeared to be the biggest shock to the Tories so far. Sources says: "Not a word all night [about the Marble Arch Mound]. The big Tory focus is Boris to blame"
https://twitter.com/Jacob_LDR/status/1522438801427214336
https://twitter.com/GeorgeWParker/status/1522436789767708672
Away from London this could slide into a sticky day for the Tories. If they lose Somerset for example. Or if they get near 240 losses that is about 1/4 what they were defending and very much in the red zone psephologists made for them.
And I like your sensible approach to all this.
https://www.bbc.com/news/in-pictures-61333251
The longer it is going on the worse it’s getting for conservatives. Those early results may have been favourably skewed to a lot of leave voting areas. Which as Stuart said bleary eyed just out of bed looks abysmal for Labour. But then Labour held on this time in a way they didn’t do in 2019 GE and 2021 locals
Is that holding on? Or is it actually getting your voters back?
The world has changed. There are more Hartlepools than Mayfairs.
That was always shaky, and the realignment was never going to stop there. Part of what we're seeing is the other shoe falling.
You might reflect on that.
But looking at it broadly: are we seeing a further stratification of the votes in England: the big cities going strongly Labour, with rural areas and small towns *tending* towards Cons?
I can see Starmer appealing to the urban set - less so to people outside London or the conurbations.
Early days.
I’m looking down the menu for today and I’m seeing so much low hanging Tory fruit for the Libdems to gorge on, it’s mouthwatering 🤤
https://election.pressassociation.com/locals/provisional-may-election-declaration-times-in-chronological-order/
I think everyone knew Wandsworth was going to go so the BBC lined up a preconceived script on it.