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For LAB and the BBC LE2022 is more than just Wandsworth – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited May 15 in General
imageFor LAB and the BBC LE2022 is more than just Wandsworth – politicalbetting.com

If you have been watching the BBC election coverage overnight you could have been forgiven that LE2022 was simply confined to the London Borough of Wandsworth. It had about 20 times the coverage of any other election and even the other Tory London loss, Barnet, struggled to get a look in.

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Comments

  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 4,989
    edited May 6
    Starmer has much to think about for sure, but the results will end up good enough to show a healthy progress now.
    But the progress in remain areas clouds the flop in the red wall.

    FIRST! And still wide awake. Like some sort of junkie 😆
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713
    Yep Labour has done well, albeit issues still in the former Brexit seats.

    Mike is ploughing a lonely furrow with this one.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,410
    edited May 6
    LDs gaining in midterm locals=classic protest vote for pointless party
    Labour triumphant=alternative government in preparation

    I remember the locals in 1995 and 2007/8,. This isn't them.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713
    edited May 6
    And as I mentioned, the real killer for the tories in the red wall seats will be the cost of living. As the rest of the country tumbles to Labour and the LibDems, the tories are the ones with the real battle on their hands. No amount of immigrant bashing will save them if people can't feed their kids ...
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713
    Fishing said:


    I remember the locals in 1995 and 2007/8,. This isn't them.

    Even under Tony Blair Labour never won Wandsworth.

    And the tories have held Westminster for 58 years, since its creation in 1964. They have just lost it, we are told.

    p.s. your rude comment about the LibDems is not very clever.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713
    CONFIRMED: Labour have GAINED control of Southampton from the Conservatives.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 16,443
    edited May 6
    The Tories have managed to hold just one seat on Richmond upon Thames council.

    And it's none other than Geoffrey Samuel, who was first elected to the council in 1957.

    https://www.twickenhamconservatives.com/people/cllr-geoffrey-samuel
    https://cabnet.richmond.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?XXR=0&ID=113&RPID=523586444
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713
    I'm fascinated to see what happens in Surrey. My home patch of Woking could be really interesting. Will we see the bloodbath extend out beyond London?

    The other day the LibDems gained a massive council swing in Surrey which is why I tipped them to gain control of Woking council at 2-1. But can they do it?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713
    Andy_JS said:

    The Tories have managed to hold just one seat on Richmond upon Thames council.

    And it's none other than Geoffrey Samuel, who was first elected to the council in 1957.

    https://www.twickenhamconservatives.com/people/cllr-geoffrey-samuel
    https://cabnet.richmond.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?XXR=0&ID=113&RPID=523586444

    This is an incredible result. South-west London is turning yellow.

    Will they continue it out into Surrey?

    It's possible that at the next General Election the Conservatives will be reduced to a rump of old Brexit voters in the northern red wall.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 4,989
    Heathener said:

    I'm fascinated to see what happens in Surrey. My home patch of Woking could be really interesting. Will we see the bloodbath extend out beyond London?

    The other day the LibDems gained a massive council swing in Surrey which is why I tipped them to gain control of Woking council at 2-1. But can they do it?

    To help a rough guess, how did 2016 Brexit election vote there?
  • TazTaz Posts: 4,787
    Tories losing support in the south. Holding up elsewhere. Compared to 2018. https://twitter.com/samcoatessky/status/1522422995691712512?s=21&t=Sa7zpiHuymtQiu9J32hdlA
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713
    High Tax, High Spend, Rising Inflation, and Immorality.

    = How to lose the affluent south.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,166
    No movement on the by-election and Boris exit markets.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 2,864
    Two more “lifetime Tory” seats on West Oxfordshire have flipped LibDem. This really is a bloodbath.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713

    Heathener said:

    I'm fascinated to see what happens in Surrey. My home patch of Woking could be really interesting. Will we see the bloodbath extend out beyond London?

    The other day the LibDems gained a massive council swing in Surrey which is why I tipped them to gain control of Woking council at 2-1. But can they do it?

    To help a rough guess, how did 2016 Brexit election vote there?
    Remain but not by a massive amount
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 4,989
    Heathener said:

    Yep Labour has done well, albeit issues still in the former Brexit seats.

    Mike is ploughing a lonely furrow with this one.

    You know I like the heading from the last thread. Below this one though, There is this element psephologists been saying for weeks, but it’s so boring, that in 2018 Labour had a bit of a “meh” result at the time, but considering everything that has happened in the same territory since, just holding 2018, just standing still, is a far better result than those which have happened since. In other words, if at the 2019 general election Labour had got those 2018 votes they wouldn’t have melted down to that degree.

    It’s boring. And it’s not a sexy headline. But it’s actually true. It’s the sort of thing here on PB we should have enough respect for a betting site to agree about, and educate the rest of the world.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713
    MoonRabbit: roughly 55%-45% Remain in the Woking area.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,166

    Heathener said:

    Yep Labour has done well, albeit issues still in the former Brexit seats.

    Mike is ploughing a lonely furrow with this one.

    You know I like the heading from the last thread. Below this one though, There is this element psephologists been saying for weeks, but it’s so boring, that in 2018 Labour had a bit of a “meh” result at the time, but considering everything that has happened in the same territory since, just holding 2018, just standing still, is a far better result than those which have happened since. In other words, if at the 2019 general election Labour had got those 2018 votes they wouldn’t have melted down to that degree.

    It’s boring. And it’s not a sexy headline. But it’s actually true. It’s the sort of thing here on PB we should have enough respect for a betting site to agree about, and educate the rest of the world.
    Labour will be hoping for progress in Wales and Scotland, which count today.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713

    Heathener said:

    Yep Labour has done well, albeit issues still in the former Brexit seats.

    Mike is ploughing a lonely furrow with this one.

    You know I like the heading from the last thread. Below this one though, There is this element psephologists been saying for weeks, but it’s so boring, that in 2018 Labour had a bit of a “meh” result at the time, but considering everything that has happened in the same territory since, just holding 2018, just standing still, is a far better result than those which have happened since. In other words, if at the 2019 general election Labour had got those 2018 votes they wouldn’t have melted down to that degree.

    It’s boring. And it’s not a sexy headline. But it’s actually true. It’s the sort of thing here on PB we should have enough respect for a betting site to agree about, and educate the rest of the world.
    I agree with you
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713
    edited May 6
    I've mentioned Labour's problem: how do you keep the new centre remain areas in the south and London, but yet somehow win back the Brexit northerners?

    But the Conservatives have the same problem in reverse. How do you win back the south if you're banging a drum which repulses them?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 22,658
    Heathener said:

    Fishing said:


    I remember the locals in 1995 and 2007/8,. This isn't them.

    Even under Tony Blair Labour never won Wandsworth.

    And the tories have held Westminster for 58 years, since its creation in 1964. They have just lost it, we are told.

    p.s. your rude comment about the LibDems is not very clever.
    Tony Blair didn’t win Canterbury. Times change.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713
    tlg86 said:

    Heathener said:

    Fishing said:


    I remember the locals in 1995 and 2007/8,. This isn't them.

    Even under Tony Blair Labour never won Wandsworth.

    And the tories have held Westminster for 58 years, since its creation in 1964. They have just lost it, we are told.

    p.s. your rude comment about the LibDems is not very clever.
    Tony Blair didn’t win Canterbury. Times change.
    Indeed.

    I'm chewing my finger nails about Woking :wink:
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 4,989
    edited May 6
    Heathener said:

    And as I mentioned, the real killer for the tories in the red wall seats will be the cost of living. As the rest of the country tumbles to Labour and the LibDems, the tories are the ones with the real battle on their hands. No amount of immigrant bashing will save them if people can't feed their kids ...

    I’m not convinced credit crunch, stagflation and recession hurt Tories that much. To do so It’s got to be owned by them to hurt them? If voters see it as international situation and nothing to believe it would be different, perhaps even worse under another party, it’s not going to flip their vote is it?

    And we have opposition party in Labour more obsessed recently in Partygate (that can look after itself from here) than making clear how they actually could mange the economic crisis themselves.

    As I explained in a recent post in one of tonight threads, in answer to Horse who we havn’t had a whinnie out of since, bad economic news is not necessarily a Labour bounce - in 1992 the voters preferred incumbents to manage the recession and the recovery better. Arguably without a early nineties recession against a different backdrop, Labours tax raising public spending manifesto might even have won? So this looming recession might actually kill off Labours chances.

    To be balanced, fair and honest here, every policy can be attacked and it’s downsides flagged up, like downsides of Labours windfall tax flagged up, but in order to best steal voters over the economic pain, they need to get to microphones first with solid policies. The lazy complacent road of just expecting to capitalise on economic downturn without hard work and policy bravery, 1992 lies at the end of that road.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713
    God, we really ARE a divided nation aren't we?

    It's depressing.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,313
    Just woken up and looked at the the BBC’s English leaderboard. Currently:
    LD +42
    Lab +23
    Grn +20
    Ref +2
    Con -92

    Gut reaction: this is utterly appalling from Labour. Truly, utterly, gut-wrenchingly dire. The Tories are going to win the next UK GE, even with Johnson as leader.

    I sincerely hope my first reaction is totally incorrect!
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,166
    Heathener said:

    I've mentioned Labour's problem: how do you keep the new centre remain areas in the south and London, but yet somehow win back the Brexit northerners?

    But the Conservatives have the same problem in reverse. How do you win back the south if you're banging a drum which repulses them?

    It begs the question of whether the Brexit effect is really due to Brexit or levelling up.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713

    Just woken up and looked at the the BBC’s English leaderboard. Currently:
    LD +42
    Lab +23
    Grn +20
    Ref +2
    Con -92

    Gut reaction: this is utterly appalling from Labour. Truly, utterly, gut-wrenchingly dire. The Tories are going to win the next UK GE, even with Johnson as leader.

    I sincerely hope my first reaction is totally incorrect!

    Erm. Britain Elects were predicting Labour would net lose English seats compared to 2018 so I've no idea what you are on about.

    Good morning but maybe go back to bed and come back when the other half of seats are counted?

    https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/05/our-local-election-forecast-for-2022/
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,209
    Heathener said:

    Just woken up and looked at the the BBC’s English leaderboard. Currently:
    LD +42
    Lab +23
    Grn +20
    Ref +2
    Con -92

    Gut reaction: this is utterly appalling from Labour. Truly, utterly, gut-wrenchingly dire. The Tories are going to win the next UK GE, even with Johnson as leader.

    I sincerely hope my first reaction is totally incorrect!

    Erm. Britain Elects were predicting Labour would net lose English seats compared to 2018 so I've no idea what you are on about.

    Good morning but maybe go back to bed and come back when the other half of seats are counted?

    https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/05/our-local-election-forecast-for-2022/
    I wouldn't hold much faith in that prediction, given how badly it has performed with only a third of the seats declared. Unless you are expecting sudden large gains by the Tories in England?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713
    Some people are saying that Westminster has fallen but others that it's too tight to call.

    If it does fall, it's seismic.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 4,989
    Prof Curtice
    “ It does look as though we're heading for a slightly lower turnout than in other recent local elections. On average the turnout is down by 1 percentage point on 2018 in the BBC's key wards, and by 2.5 points on last year. However, there is no sign that where turnout fell the most, the Conservatives particularly suffered as a result.”

    So he;s calling it a lot of vote switching rather than just stay at home?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 51,464
    Good morning

    I have only just started to catch up on the night's events but it seems largely as I predicted, a good night for the lib dems (and greens) , disappointing but better than expected for the conservatives, but London apart, all the questions I posed about Starmer being too colourless and bland with no real answers seems to be confirmed

    Indeed without partygate, Starmer would be looking for a new job this morning, but of course we have yet to see the Scots and Welsh results that may culminate in Boris losing his

    I would just caution the London posters on here, and as referred to in the thread, do not think London represents most of the country, it does not and Brexit was the confirmation
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,209

    Prof Curtice
    “ It does look as though we're heading for a slightly lower turnout than in other recent local elections. On average the turnout is down by 1 percentage point on 2018 in the BBC's key wards, and by 2.5 points on last year. However, there is no sign that where turnout fell the most, the Conservatives particularly suffered as a result.”

    So he;s calling it a lot of vote switching rather than just stay at home?

    Isn't necessarily the same voters turning out.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713
    RobD said:

    Heathener said:

    Just woken up and looked at the the BBC’s English leaderboard. Currently:
    LD +42
    Lab +23
    Grn +20
    Ref +2
    Con -92

    Gut reaction: this is utterly appalling from Labour. Truly, utterly, gut-wrenchingly dire. The Tories are going to win the next UK GE, even with Johnson as leader.

    I sincerely hope my first reaction is totally incorrect!

    Erm. Britain Elects were predicting Labour would net lose English seats compared to 2018 so I've no idea what you are on about.

    Good morning but maybe go back to bed and come back when the other half of seats are counted?

    https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/05/our-local-election-forecast-for-2022/
    I wouldn't hold much faith in that prediction, given how badly it has performed with only a third of the seats declared. Unless you are expecting sudden large gains by the Tories in England?
    I agree, merely suggesting that Stuart's 'this is dire' message was wayward.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,313

    Heathener said:

    Yep Labour has done well, albeit issues still in the former Brexit seats.

    Mike is ploughing a lonely furrow with this one.

    You know I like the heading from the last thread. Below this one though, There is this element psephologists been saying for weeks, but it’s so boring, that in 2018 Labour had a bit of a “meh” result at the time, but considering everything that has happened in the same territory since, just holding 2018, just standing still, is a far better result than those which have happened since. In other words, if at the 2019 general election Labour had got those 2018 votes they wouldn’t have melted down to that degree.

    It’s boring. And it’s not a sexy headline. But it’s actually true. It’s the sort of thing here on PB we should have enough respect for a betting site to agree about, and educate the rest of the world.
    Labour will be hoping for progress in Wales and Scotland, which count today.
    Agreed. Their ground troops are going to be devastated if the Welsh and Scottish results are as dire as these English ones. They must, *must* now beat the SCons for 2nd place!!

    If the SLDs do just a bit better than their well-performing English cousins, could they be challenging for that vital silver-medal podium position? Maybe not this year, but they might not be a million miles off?
  • felixfelix Posts: 14,261

    Just woken up and looked at the the BBC’s English leaderboard. Currently:
    LD +42
    Lab +23
    Grn +20
    Ref +2
    Con -92

    Gut reaction: this is utterly appalling from Labour. Truly, utterly, gut-wrenchingly dire. The Tories are going to win the next UK GE, even with Johnson as leader.

    I sincerely hope my first reaction is totally incorrect!

    As a disappointed Tory I think you're wrong to be be so pessimistic. It's poor for Labour, good for the LDs and as predicted for the Tories. The biggest loser may well be Labour because of poor tactics and bad expectation management. However, the result will probably keep Boris as PM rather longer. I'd prefer a new leader now, as the next GE is winnable with a more centrist approach. Starmer will also be safe because the London successes and possibly some Scottish progress will be spun as a big win. The latter might be significant - the former probably isn't.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 4,989

    Heathener said:

    Yep Labour has done well, albeit issues still in the former Brexit seats.

    Mike is ploughing a lonely furrow with this one.

    You know I like the heading from the last thread. Below this one though, There is this element psephologists been saying for weeks, but it’s so boring, that in 2018 Labour had a bit of a “meh” result at the time, but considering everything that has happened in the same territory since, just holding 2018, just standing still, is a far better result than those which have happened since. In other words, if at the 2019 general election Labour had got those 2018 votes they wouldn’t have melted down to that degree.

    It’s boring. And it’s not a sexy headline. But it’s actually true. It’s the sort of thing here on PB we should have enough respect for a betting site to agree about, and educate the rest of the world.
    Labour will be hoping for progress in Wales and Scotland, which count today.
    I agree. But Brexit had a large home in Wales, after England, like a second home in fact. 🤭 Brexit has definitely played a part in England tonight, let’s see if it plays in the Wales one.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713

    Good morning

    I have only just started to catch up on the night's events but it seems largely as I predicted, a good night for the lib dems (and greens) , disappointing but better than expected for the conservatives, but London apart, all the questions I posed about Starmer being too colourless and bland with no real answers seems to be confirmed

    Indeed without partygate, Starmer would be looking for a new job this morning, but of course we have yet to see the Scots and Welsh results that may culminate in Boris losing his

    I would just caution the London posters on here, and as referred to in the thread, do not think London represents most of the country, it does not and Brexit was the confirmation

    Good morning Big G. Let's wait and see.

    For example, if Labour's polling revival in Scotland translates to votes then that's good news. And it's not just London. Places like Portsmouth and Southampton have fallen to Labour.

    If I were the tories I'd be getting really really worried that they are becoming a rump of old Brexit voters in the northern red wall.

    And despite Moon Rabbit's optimism, if the economy continues to tank and cost of living bites (it will) don't expect them to stay loyal to Boris forever.

    The ones in trouble here are the tories.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 4,989
    edited May 6
    Heathener said:

    MoonRabbit: roughly 55%-45% Remain in the Woking area.

    Not as under as much threat good for Tory’s as say Sutton then, I would suggest.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 8,313
    edited May 6
    Heathener said:

    Just woken up and looked at the the BBC’s English leaderboard. Currently:
    LD +42
    Lab +23
    Grn +20
    Ref +2
    Con -92

    Gut reaction: this is utterly appalling from Labour. Truly, utterly, gut-wrenchingly dire. The Tories are going to win the next UK GE, even with Johnson as leader.

    I sincerely hope my first reaction is totally incorrect!

    Erm. Britain Elects were predicting Labour would net lose English seats compared to 2018 so I've no idea what you are on about.

    Good morning but maybe go back to bed and come back when the other half of seats are counted?

    https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/05/our-local-election-forecast-for-2022/
    I’ve lived over half a century. I have seen an awful lot of LE election results. This is absolutely shite from Labour. I can 100% guarantee you that Tory strategists look like Cheshire cats this morning.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,209

    Heathener said:

    MoonRabbit: roughly 55%-45% Remain in the Woking area.

    Not as under as much threat good for Tory’s as say Sutton then, I would suggest.
    Tories already down two in Sutton. Hard to see that changing hands.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 4,989
    RobD said:

    Heathener said:

    MoonRabbit: roughly 55%-45% Remain in the Woking area.

    Not as under as much threat good for Tory’s as say Sutton then, I would suggest.
    Tories already down two in Sutton. Hard to see that changing hands.
    Bloody good news. 😀
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713

    Heathener said:

    Yep Labour has done well, albeit issues still in the former Brexit seats.

    Mike is ploughing a lonely furrow with this one.

    You know I like the heading from the last thread. Below this one though, There is this element psephologists been saying for weeks, but it’s so boring, that in 2018 Labour had a bit of a “meh” result at the time, but considering everything that has happened in the same territory since, just holding 2018, just standing still, is a far better result than those which have happened since. In other words, if at the 2019 general election Labour had got those 2018 votes they wouldn’t have melted down to that degree.

    It’s boring. And it’s not a sexy headline. But it’s actually true. It’s the sort of thing here on PB we should have enough respect for a betting site to agree about, and educate the rest of the world.
    Labour will be hoping for progress in Wales and Scotland, which count today.
    Brexit has definitely played a part in England tonight, let’s see if it plays in the Wales one.
    Are you sure you really mean 'Brexit'? As others have mentioned, isn't it the levelling up agenda and immigrant-bashing?

    The huge worry for Conservatives is that those aren't solid foundations for the future. They will fade even as the people who voted for Brexit increasingly die out.

    I'm being serious: take a breath you tories because you are being reduced to a northern red wall rump and even that isn't a secure foundation for the future.

    Labour have done well. The LibDems very well. But it's the Conservatives who are in danger of dying out.
  • felixfelix Posts: 14,261

    Heathener said:

    I've mentioned Labour's problem: how do you keep the new centre remain areas in the south and London, but yet somehow win back the Brexit northerners?

    But the Conservatives have the same problem in reverse. How do you win back the south if you're banging a drum which repulses them?

    It begs the question of whether the Brexit effect is really due to Brexit or levelling up.
    I've said many times that the 'redwall tories' are misunderstood. I think much of it is simply the trend of l-m/c and u-w/c in the small towns of the north and midlands joining their brethren in the south and finding a more natural home with the Conservatives.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 4,989

    Heathener said:

    Just woken up and looked at the the BBC’s English leaderboard. Currently:
    LD +42
    Lab +23
    Grn +20
    Ref +2
    Con -92

    Gut reaction: this is utterly appalling from Labour. Truly, utterly, gut-wrenchingly dire. The Tories are going to win the next UK GE, even with Johnson as leader.

    I sincerely hope my first reaction is totally incorrect!

    Erm. Britain Elects were predicting Labour would net lose English seats compared to 2018 so I've no idea what you are on about.

    Good morning but maybe go back to bed and come back when the other half of seats are counted?

    https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/05/our-local-election-forecast-for-2022/
    I’ve lived over half a century. I have seen an awful lot of LE election results. This is absolutely shite from Labour. I can 100% guarantee you that Tory strategists look like Cheshire cats this morning.
    Do you have another side to the bed, try that one.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 2,864
    Signing off from the new People’s Republic of West Oxfordshire. Night all.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 7,967
    Heathener said:

    I'm fascinated to see what happens in Surrey. My home patch of Woking could be really interesting. Will we see the bloodbath extend out beyond London?

    The other day the LibDems gained a massive council swing in Surrey which is why I tipped them to gain control of Woking council at 2-1. But can they do it?

    Have you been working Woking? OR is that the other way around?

    And just how Woke IS Woking?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 16,443
    With 66 councils declared Labour have gained 25 seats.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 7,967
    RobD said:

    Prof Curtice
    “ It does look as though we're heading for a slightly lower turnout than in other recent local elections. On average the turnout is down by 1 percentage point on 2018 in the BBC's key wards, and by 2.5 points on last year. However, there is no sign that where turnout fell the most, the Conservatives particularly suffered as a result.”

    So he;s calling it a lot of vote switching rather than just stay at home?

    Isn't necessarily the same voters turning out.
    But will tend to be that in most places?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 4,989
    RobD said:

    Prof Curtice
    “ It does look as though we're heading for a slightly lower turnout than in other recent local elections. On average the turnout is down by 1 percentage point on 2018 in the BBC's key wards, and by 2.5 points on last year. However, there is no sign that where turnout fell the most, the Conservatives particularly suffered as a result.”

    So he;s calling it a lot of vote switching rather than just stay at home?

    Isn't necessarily the same voters turning out.
    Yeah.

    But it always is isn’t it 😉
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713
    edited May 6

    Heathener said:

    I'm fascinated to see what happens in Surrey. My home patch of Woking could be really interesting. Will we see the bloodbath extend out beyond London?

    The other day the LibDems gained a massive council swing in Surrey which is why I tipped them to gain control of Woking council at 2-1. But can they do it?

    Have you been working Woking? OR is that the other way around?

    And just how Woke IS Woking?
    No I've been too busy to tramp the streets and, anyway, I'm normally a Labour voter, but I have noted the large numbers of LibDem posters and not a single tory one. Also considerable, palpable, anger about the Conservatives. Not helped by the Tory minority council contriving to become the 3rd most debt ridden council in the United Kingdom, with £1.84bn debt.

    I think it may flip to LibDem control but it's tight.

    p.s. it isn't at all woke!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 16,443
    Heathener said:

    God, we really ARE a divided nation aren't we?

    It's depressing.

    Isn't it inherent in elections to divide the country? If everyone voted the same way there wouldn't be much point in having elections in the first place.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,166
    Tunbridge Wells in danger, allegedly.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713

    Tunbridge Wells in danger, allegedly.

    Bloody hell
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 16,443
    Heathener said:

    I'm fascinated to see what happens in Surrey. My home patch of Woking could be really interesting. Will we see the bloodbath extend out beyond London?

    The other day the LibDems gained a massive council swing in Surrey which is why I tipped them to gain control of Woking council at 2-1. But can they do it?

    One would expect Woking to be a big LD win from the Tories.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 51,464
    edited May 6

    Heathener said:

    Yep Labour has done well, albeit issues still in the former Brexit seats.

    Mike is ploughing a lonely furrow with this one.

    You know I like the heading from the last thread. Below this one though, There is this element psephologists been saying for weeks, but it’s so boring, that in 2018 Labour had a bit of a “meh” result at the time, but considering everything that has happened in the same territory since, just holding 2018, just standing still, is a far better result than those which have happened since. In other words, if at the 2019 general election Labour had got those 2018 votes they wouldn’t have melted down to that degree.

    It’s boring. And it’s not a sexy headline. But it’s actually true. It’s the sort of thing here on PB we should have enough respect for a betting site to agree about, and educate the rest of the world.
    Labour will be hoping for progress in Wales and Scotland, which count today.
    Agreed. Their ground troops are going to be devastated if the Welsh and Scottish results are as dire as these English ones. They must, *must* now beat the SCons for 2nd place!!

    If the SLDs do just a bit better than their well-performing English cousins, could they be challenging for that vital silver-medal podium position? Maybe not this year, but they might not be a million miles off?
    This from the Daily Post re North Wales

    The survey found that 'Partygate' scandal had not changed an overwhelming majority's (73%) way of voting in the local elections. Interestingly, it did find that politics in Westminster and Cardiff would influence the vote of 50% of respondents. The major issue for our readers was a lack of focus on North Wales from Cardiff, with 22% saying that was the most important concern in this year's local election.

    One person said: "Local politics should be more about local and less about politics. This doesn't affect Cardiff or Westminster it affects communities. I will vote for someone who gives their all for their community not their party."

    The other issues that would influence people's votes were who could help struggling town centres and work towards providing good local jobs.
    People also focused on transport investment and coastal defence as key issues, as well as holiday homes being left empty.

    Most readers felt unheard by their elected representatives, with one reader saying: "Work for the benefit of your local area and not for the political party that you represent." Another reader advised politicians to: "Visit people more frequently than every four years, not just when they need the votes."

    65% of participants felt that their vote would not make a difference
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713
    Andy_JS said:

    Heathener said:

    God, we really ARE a divided nation aren't we?

    It's depressing.

    Isn't it inherent in elections to divide the country? If everyone voted the same way there wouldn't be much point in having elections in the first place.
    I think that's, if I may say, a rather trite response to a serious point.

    The last 8 years have seen this country more divided than at any time in my life and that seems to be increasing. The Conservatives are now becoming a regional northern party.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713
    edited May 6
    Andy_JS said:

    Heathener said:

    I'm fascinated to see what happens in Surrey. My home patch of Woking could be really interesting. Will we see the bloodbath extend out beyond London?

    The other day the LibDems gained a massive council swing in Surrey which is why I tipped them to gain control of Woking council at 2-1. But can they do it?

    One would expect Woking to be a big LD win from the Tories.
    No it's far more complicated than that. You have gone into trite mode.

    Ask tlg86 who will explain ward by ward just how difficult it is for the LibDems to win overall control. There are 10 seats out of 30 up for grabs and they have to flip 4. It's very very tight and if they do it, it will be remarkable. I got 2-1 odds and Quincey suggested that, if anything, that was a bit short. Tlg86 concurred.

    And it would cause a number of Surrey Conservative MPs to be very very nervous. Many of them are big names too ...
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 16,443
    edited May 6

    Just woken up and looked at the the BBC’s English leaderboard. Currently:
    LD +42
    Lab +23
    Grn +20
    Ref +2
    Con -92

    Gut reaction: this is utterly appalling from Labour. Truly, utterly, gut-wrenchingly dire. The Tories are going to win the next UK GE, even with Johnson as leader.

    I sincerely hope my first reaction is totally incorrect!

    Professor John Curtice on Labour.

    "This is not a performance which indicates a party on course for a general election victory, or even to be largest party".
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 22,658
    John Curtice thinks Labour will be disappointed with these results.

    The thing to watch is the Lib Dem share in the Westminster polls. I think they might gain from Labour as the election nears and people start to say how they will vote rather than how they’d like to vote.
  • MalcolmDunnMalcolmDunn Posts: 126
    Are you really surprised at the BBC coverage Mike? The bias in their political reporting becomes more obvious with each passing year. It will prove their undoing in the end.
    So far your party has had a very decent set of results. I hope you enjoy it.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713
    So Labour are claiming that translated to a GE they would have won 16 Leave-voting seats.

    Hmmm ...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,209

    RobD said:

    Heathener said:

    MoonRabbit: roughly 55%-45% Remain in the Woking area.

    Not as under as much threat good for Tory’s as say Sutton then, I would suggest.
    Tories already down two in Sutton. Hard to see that changing hands.
    Bloody good news. 😀
    Con +2 in the end. Maybe next time. ;)
  • MalcolmDunnMalcolmDunn Posts: 126
    The Conservatives are becoming a regional northern party-Heathener.
    You have the gall to criticise others for making trite comments?
    The truth is the Conservative Party puts up more candidates in more wards than any other and after today will still have more councillors across Britain than any other.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 4,989

    Heathener said:

    Just woken up and looked at the the BBC’s English leaderboard. Currently:
    LD +42
    Lab +23
    Grn +20
    Ref +2
    Con -92

    Gut reaction: this is utterly appalling from Labour. Truly, utterly, gut-wrenchingly dire. The Tories are going to win the next UK GE, even with Johnson as leader.

    I sincerely hope my first reaction is totally incorrect!

    Erm. Britain Elects were predicting Labour would net lose English seats compared to 2018 so I've no idea what you are on about.

    Good morning but maybe go back to bed and come back when the other half of seats are counted?

    https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/05/our-local-election-forecast-for-2022/
    I’ve lived over half a century. I have seen an awful lot of LE election results. This is absolutely shite from Labour. I can 100% guarantee you that Tory strategists look like Cheshire cats this morning.
    Two things Stu.

    Look at the number of councillors won by everyone.

    psephologists been saying for weeks that in 2018 Labour had a bit of a “meh” result at the time, but considering everything that has happened in the same territory since, 2018 is good, just holding 2018, just standing still, is a far better result than those which have happened since.

    In other words, if at the 2019 general election Labour had got those 2018 votes they wouldn’t have melted down to that degree. It’s boring. And it’s not a sexy headline. But it’s actually true. It’s the sort of thing here on PB we should have enough respect for a betting site to agree about, and educate the rest of the world.

    Secondly, Where a whole council isn’t up at once, but thirds over 4 years, direct comparisons with four years ago isn’t the whole story. What has happened in between plays a part in a distinct local narrative. Last week HY said Starmer needs to take Swindon. When you look into it Tories had such an excellent result there last year, taking seats that forever have been Labour, in all fairness it actually takes a few elections to work back from such bad years? You screaming “they havn’t made much progress in Dudley, pathetic” versus Labour in Dudley all smiles with progress they have made.

    If the Tories do lose over 200 seats from here in meltdown evening session, will you change that awful avatar?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 7,967
    So who is up in Down?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,209
    edited May 6

    So who is up in Down?

    Oops, the count hasn't started yet.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 51,464
    Heathener said:

    Good morning

    I have only just started to catch up on the night's events but it seems largely as I predicted, a good night for the lib dems (and greens) , disappointing but better than expected for the conservatives, but London apart, all the questions I posed about Starmer being too colourless and bland with no real answers seems to be confirmed

    Indeed without partygate, Starmer would be looking for a new job this morning, but of course we have yet to see the Scots and Welsh results that may culminate in Boris losing his

    I would just caution the London posters on here, and as referred to in the thread, do not think London represents most of the country, it does not and Brexit was the confirmation

    Good morning Big G. Let's wait and see.

    For example, if Labour's polling revival in Scotland translates to votes then that's good news. And it's not just London. Places like Portsmouth and Southampton have fallen to Labour.

    If I were the tories I'd be getting really really worried that they are becoming a rump of old Brexit voters in the northern red wall.

    And despite Moon Rabbit's optimism, if the economy continues to tank and cost of living bites (it will) don't expect them to stay loyal to Boris forever.

    The ones in trouble here are the tories.
    Mid term with a government facing the issues it has on its plate just now then labour should have performed much better

    I expect it will do so in Scotland but re Boris I am not sure his mps will replace him yet

    On the wider point about the economy the UK, and indeed all governments, are facing an extreme economic crisis over the next few years and I am not convinced when there is no money voters will turn to labour

    However there is a lot of water to flow under the bridge and many variables before GE 24 which tonight has not really provided any answers
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713
    Labour say that they have GAINED Westminster.

    Wow.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 4,989
    edited May 6
    What’s the latest from Westminster count, how close the Tories to holding on?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713

    The Conservatives are becoming a regional northern party-Heathener.
    You have the gall to criticise others for making trite comments?
    The truth is the Conservative Party puts up more candidates in more wards than any other and after today will still have more councillors across Britain than any other.

    How's the mood inside CCHQ this morning?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713
    edited May 6

    What’s the latest from Westminster count, how close the Tories to holding on?

    They've lost it (apparently)

    Incredible
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 4,989
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Heathener said:

    MoonRabbit: roughly 55%-45% Remain in the Woking area.

    Not as under as much threat good for Tory’s as say Sutton then, I would suggest.
    Tories already down two in Sutton. Hard to see that changing hands.
    Bloody good news. 😀
    Con +2 in the end. Maybe next time. ;)
    Not enough manned the Brexit barricades there.

    Libdems win. 😃
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713
    The Conservatives have held Westminster for 58 years, since its creation in 1964.

    The rumour is that they have lost it to Labour.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 16,443
    In 2018 the council that came closest to the projected national share was Peterborough. These are the popular vote figures for Peterborough this time.

    Con 35.8%
    Lab 34.8%
    LD 13.4%
    Green 9.3%
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713
    "Triple Tory trouble in London with Westminster poised to follow Wandsworth and Barnet in falling to Labour: Capital turns even more RED in night of shocks for Conservatives"

    Daily Mail

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10788325/Triple-Tory-trouble-London-boroughs-Westminster-Wandsworth-Barnet-fall.html
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713
    edited May 6
    I'm just wondering if London and Surrey MPs may be the ones to topple Boris.

    They are, apparently, 'furious'

    'Some interesting details from a source at the Westminster count.
    Westminster Tories appear furious at Boris Johnson with many talking about how he has to go and a serious word needs to be had.
    They don't think he will resign so want him pushed.
    Apparently, the West End result has appeared to be the biggest shock to the Tories so far. Sources says: "Not a word all night [about the Marble Arch Mound]. The big Tory focus is Boris to blame"

    https://twitter.com/Jacob_LDR/status/1522438801427214336

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 54,884
    Picture not so bad for @BorisJohnson outside the capital. But - as we said in this curtainraiser - a political strategy where you end up losing Mayfair but rely on continued support from former Lab voters in Hartlepool is somewhat risky

    https://twitter.com/GeorgeWParker/status/1522436789767708672
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713
    edited May 6

    Picture not so bad for @BorisJohnson outside the capital. But - as we said in this curtainraiser - a political strategy where you end up losing Mayfair but rely on continued support from former Lab voters in Hartlepool is somewhat risky

    https://twitter.com/GeorgeWParker/status/1522436789767708672

    And I don't think the tories (some on here) are really sitting down and considering this. If they end up as a party of the northern red wall rump then they're in deep doggy-do.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 4,989
    Heathener said:

    "Triple Tory trouble in London with Westminster poised to follow Wandsworth and Barnet in falling to Labour: Capital turns even more RED in night of shocks for Conservatives"

    Daily Mail

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10788325/Triple-Tory-trouble-London-boroughs-Westminster-Wandsworth-Barnet-fall.html

    Yeah it’s the headline grabbers isn’t it? It’s the media narrative setters. It’s the one where they set up the cameras so the one we will see all day.

    Away from London this could slide into a sticky day for the Tories. If they lose Somerset for example. Or if they get near 240 losses that is about 1/4 what they were defending and very much in the red zone psephologists made for them.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 16,443
    Heathener said:

    I'm just wondering if London and Surrey MPs may be the ones to topple Boris.

    They are, apparently, 'furious'

    'Some interesting details from a source at the Westminster count.
    Westminster Tories appear furious at Boris Johnson with many talking about how he has to go and a serious word needs to be had.
    They don't think he will resign so want him pushed.
    Apparently, the West End result has appeared to be the biggest shock to the Tories so far. Sources says: "Not a word all night [about the Marble Arch Mound]. The big Tory focus is Boris to blame"

    https://twitter.com/Jacob_LDR/status/1522438801427214336

    I'm looking forward to the results in Birmingham which is the nearest big city to where I live. Maybe it'll be the opposite of what's happening in London and the south-east.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 2,713

    Heathener said:

    "Triple Tory trouble in London with Westminster poised to follow Wandsworth and Barnet in falling to Labour: Capital turns even more RED in night of shocks for Conservatives"

    Daily Mail

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10788325/Triple-Tory-trouble-London-boroughs-Westminster-Wandsworth-Barnet-fall.html

    Yeah it’s the headline grabbers isn’t it? It’s the media narrative setters. It’s the one where they set up the cameras so the one we will see all day.

    Away from London this could slide into a sticky day for the Tories. If they lose Somerset for example. Or if they get near 240 losses that is about 1/4 what they were defending and very much in the red zone psephologists made for them.
    Agreed.

    And I like your sensible approach to all this.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 22,658
    Conservatives hold Kensington and Chelsea. :smiley:
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 16,443
    Heathener said:

    The Conservatives have held Westminster for 58 years, since its creation in 1964.

    The rumour is that they have lost it to Labour.

    It's not a rumour, it's pretty definite.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 4,989
    tlg86 said:

    Conservatives hold Kensington and Chelsea. :smiley:

    Libdems had one vote there I know for sure. Conservatives had one vote there I’m pretty sure of too. But was there much movement?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 7,967
    Local elections gone to the dogs!

    https://www.bbc.com/news/in-pictures-61333251

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 51,464
    Heathener said:

    Picture not so bad for @BorisJohnson outside the capital. But - as we said in this curtainraiser - a political strategy where you end up losing Mayfair but rely on continued support from former Lab voters in Hartlepool is somewhat risky

    https://twitter.com/GeorgeWParker/status/1522436789767708672

    And I don't think the tories (some on here) are really sitting down and considering this. If they are end up as a party of the northern red wall rump then they're in deep doggy-do.
    I would just gently suggest you are reading far too much into labour successes in London and frankly for mid term and a party that knows how to win general elections, you write if off at your peril and of course you are being as partisan as anyone else on this forum
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 22,658
    What’s curious about Wandsworth is that the three MPs are already Labour.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 4,989
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    "Triple Tory trouble in London with Westminster poised to follow Wandsworth and Barnet in falling to Labour: Capital turns even more RED in night of shocks for Conservatives"

    Daily Mail

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10788325/Triple-Tory-trouble-London-boroughs-Westminster-Wandsworth-Barnet-fall.html

    Yeah it’s the headline grabbers isn’t it? It’s the media narrative setters. It’s the one where they set up the cameras so the one we will see all day.

    Away from London this could slide into a sticky day for the Tories. If they lose Somerset for example. Or if they get near 240 losses that is about 1/4 what they were defending and very much in the red zone psephologists made for them.
    Agreed.

    And I like your sensible approach to all this.
    I’m all over it. I’ve got momentum now. There’s no stopping me. Every post from me is the hottest analyse going.

    The longer it is going on the worse it’s getting for conservatives. Those early results may have been favourably skewed to a lot of leave voting areas. Which as Stuart said bleary eyed just out of bed looks abysmal for Labour. But then Labour held on this time in a way they didn’t do in 2019 GE and 2021 locals

    Is that holding on? Or is it actually getting your voters back?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 22,658

    Picture not so bad for @BorisJohnson outside the capital. But - as we said in this curtainraiser - a political strategy where you end up losing Mayfair but rely on continued support from former Lab voters in Hartlepool is somewhat risky

    https://twitter.com/GeorgeWParker/status/1522436789767708672

    The psychology of all this is interesting. People voting Tory in Hartlepool are Tories. That they or their ancestors voted Labour 25 years ago doesn’t make them Labour voters any more than those voting Labour in Wandsworth are Tory voters.

    The world has changed. There are more Hartlepools than Mayfairs.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 5,661
    Heathener said:

    Picture not so bad for @BorisJohnson outside the capital. But - as we said in this curtainraiser - a political strategy where you end up losing Mayfair but rely on continued support from former Lab voters in Hartlepool is somewhat risky

    https://twitter.com/GeorgeWParker/status/1522436789767708672

    And I don't think the tories (some on here) are really sitting down and considering this. If they end up as a party of the northern red wall rump then they're in deep doggy-do.
    The triumph of 2019 was to add Red Wallers (let's say struggling older people in the north as crude shorthand) to the existing Conservative coalition without losing many prosperous southern grads off the other side.

    That was always shaky, and the realignment was never going to stop there. Part of what we're seeing is the other shoe falling.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 38,596
    Fishing said:

    LDs gaining in midterm locals=classic protest vote for pointless party...

    In a one party state, all other parties are pointless.
    You might reflect on that.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 29,334
    I've been holding off commenting, as there are still so many results to come in.

    But looking at it broadly: are we seeing a further stratification of the votes in England: the big cities going strongly Labour, with rural areas and small towns *tending* towards Cons?

    I can see Starmer appealing to the urban set - less so to people outside London or the conurbations.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 39,709
    Labour claiming victory in Westminster (the one HY said was safe)?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 4,989

    Picture not so bad for @BorisJohnson outside the capital. But - as we said in this curtainraiser - a political strategy where you end up losing Mayfair but rely on continued support from former Lab voters in Hartlepool is somewhat risky

    https://twitter.com/GeorgeWParker/status/1522436789767708672

    “ not so bad for @BorisJohnson outside the capital “

    Early days.

    I’m looking down the menu for today and I’m seeing so much low hanging Tory fruit for the Libdems to gorge on, it’s mouthwatering 🤤

    https://election.pressassociation.com/locals/provisional-may-election-declaration-times-in-chronological-order/
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,908
    The coverage is mad, Westminster going is much bigger than Wandsworth so I'm not even sure it's a London centric issue !
    I think everyone knew Wandsworth was going to go so the BBC lined up a preconceived script on it.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 30,849
    tlg86 said:

    Picture not so bad for @BorisJohnson outside the capital. But - as we said in this curtainraiser - a political strategy where you end up losing Mayfair but rely on continued support from former Lab voters in Hartlepool is somewhat risky

    https://twitter.com/GeorgeWParker/status/1522436789767708672

    The psychology of all this is interesting. People voting Tory in Hartlepool are Tories. That they or their ancestors voted Labour 25 years ago doesn’t make them Labour voters any more than those voting Labour in Wandsworth are Tory voters.

    The world has changed. There are more Hartlepools than Mayfairs.
    Quite. You need 326 seats to win. It doesn't matter whether you get them in places like Hartlepool, or in places like Mayfair.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 16,443
    Pulpstar said:

    The coverage is mad, Westminster going is much bigger than Wandsworth so I'm not even sure it's a London centric issue !
    I think everyone knew Wandsworth was going to go so the BBC lined up a preconceived script on it.

    It is very Wandsworth-centric, which is strange for a place that already has 3 Labour MPs.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,558
    Surprised Cumberland isn’t getting much attention. Or that Boris Johnson’s own seat now looks to be very much in play. That may be the most significant aspect of all that emerges from this election.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 3,943
    Andy_JS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The coverage is mad, Westminster going is much bigger than Wandsworth so I'm not even sure it's a London centric issue !
    I think everyone knew Wandsworth was going to go so the BBC lined up a preconceived script on it.

    It is very Wandsworth-centric, which is strange for a place that already has 3 Labour MPs.
    It’s probably where half the bbc production team live
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 44,490
    Pulpstar said:

    The coverage is mad, Westminster going is much bigger than Wandsworth so I'm not even sure it's a London centric issue !
    I think everyone knew Wandsworth was going to go so the BBC lined up a preconceived script on it.

    I'm not surprised. Most BBC journalists either live or work in London, and those that don't sympathise with its "values".
This discussion has been closed.