How the papers are Johnson and Sunak’s lockdown fines – politicalbetting.com

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How the papers are Johnson and Sunak’s lockdown fines – politicalbetting.com

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ozymandias

The Mail being on-side will be a huge relief.

And bloody hell. First.

onepureradge

Second

Luckyguy1983

Bit of a pathetic crop. The Northern Echo could at least have chosen a pic where Rishi and Boris were drinking from mugs.

mwadams

Good grief, the press is depressingly poor whatever line you take. The Mail is so far into self parody I was initially unsure as to whether it *was* supporting Johnson or whether it was a peculiar satire.

rcs1000

another_richard said:

Don't know whether this is correct or not ...

An astonishing fact:

"Turning all the German nuclear reactors back on could approximately stop gas imports from Russia. Shutting the remaining ones down could increase the dependency on Russian gas by about 30%."

https://twitter.com/erikbryn/status/1513530817426780165

I can help you here, because I was involved in the debt refinancing of the owner of one of the reactors.

And the answer is... It's complicated.

Germany shut down three reactors at the beginning of this year. Of these, two were good reactors, which could have run for another decade. One was a total maintenance nightmare, which hadn't achieved 50% uptime in a decade, whose operator had begged for permission to close it or for years.

So... Keep two running?

Well, the problem is that the utilities have been lazy. In the last couple of years, knowing they weren't getting shut down, they avoided replacing anything. Reversing the decision means a ton of delayed maintenance, and the fact that you just paid all the workers to leave.

Russia began deliberately restricting has supplies in late November last year. At that point, the Germans should have delayed closing two of the plants. They did not. This wasn't conspiracy. This was train timetables.

And now stuff is three months degraded. They should have a four to six month plan to bring them back online. Have they done so? I doubt it.

rcs1000

rcs1000 said:

another_richard said:

Don't know whether this is correct or not ...

An astonishing fact:

"Turning all the German nuclear reactors back on could approximately stop gas imports from Russia. Shutting the remaining ones down could increase the dependency on Russian gas by about 30%."

https://twitter.com/erikbryn/status/1513530817426780165

I can help you here, because I was involved in the debt refinancing of the owner of one of the reactors.

And the answer is... It's complicated.

Germany shut down three reactors at the beginning of this year. Of these, two were good reactors, which could have run for another decade. One was a total maintenance nightmare, which hadn't achieved 50% uptime in a decade, whose operator had begged for permission to close it or for years.

So... Keep two running?

Well, the problem is that the utilities have been lazy. In the last couple of years, knowing they weren't getting shut down, they avoided replacing anything. Reversing the decision means a ton of delayed maintenance, and the fact that you just paid all the workers to leave.

Russia began deliberately restricting has supplies in late November last year. At that point, the Germans should have delayed closing two of the plants. They did not. This wasn't conspiracy. This was train timetables.

And now stuff is three months degraded. They should have a four to six month plan to bring them back online. Have they done so? I doubt it.

Just to add: this would not stop gas imports. Why? Because a nuclear plant produces (say) 800MW day in, day out. They can't fill in a 3GW hole. You need flexible generation.

StuartDickson

Love the Mail front page. They are determined to keep Johnson in office til the GE. A disaster in the short-term, but a gift to the majority out there who don’t vote Conservative. He’s going to fail big time and hopefully cripple the Nasty Party beyond repair.

PR Mr Starmer! PR. Kill the repulsive monster.

When the closest thing the party has to a decent human being is that chancer Ruth Davidson, then the party is finished.

Heathener

mwadams said:

Good grief, the press is depressingly poor whatever line you take. The Mail is so far into self parody I was initially unsure as to whether it *was* supporting Johnson or whether it was a peculiar satire.

And totally contradicted by their online front which is saying that Johnson will be fined for further events and that the Sue Gray report will be published in full next week. 'MORE BLOWS TO COME FOR BORIS' https://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/index.html

Daniel Martin, journalist at the Mail, is proving himself to be one of the nastiest right-wing tub thumpers in the media.

Heathener

ozymandias said:

The Mail being on-side will be a huge relief.

And bloody hell. First.

But it isn't onside online.

It's not the first time the Mail has been facing both ways.

StuartDickson

Gary_Burton said:

another_richard said:

Gary_Burton said:

MoonRabbit said:

ozymandias said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Fishing said:

FF43 said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://twitter.com/TmorrowsPapers/status/1513989472848863234

How pathetic

When the public hear Johnson and his cheerleaders say he must stay on because of the Ukraine war, do they add rank hypocrisy to the callousness of his original offence? Or do they see a great leader protecting the free world from the Russian aggression?

Actually I'm not sure they're even trying to justify this to others. I think they're trying to convince themselves.

People may think that when Zelensky praises Boris as a great friend of Ukraine, this is for some reason more important than attending a party for ten minutes in his own garden.

Bizarre train of logic, I know.

Thatcher's international standing was godlike by comparison with Boris's, and that didn't stop her being toppled.

Very true.

There needs to be an election by the end of 2023. My analysis and prediction is it can all happen very quickly as soon as the bad local election results are in next month.

In terms of managing expectations, what sort of figure is not very spinnable - minus 500 councillors?

And what is the current expectation for the size of Tory losses? Are we due any sort of polling, or any predictive modelling?

I'm thinking the Tories will lose 200 councillors although I may have underestimated the no. of all out elections so there is potential for more damage on a bad night.

I agree with AndyJS that a Lab lead of 5% or less is perfectly spinnable for the Conservatives.

EdM led by 7% in 2012 and Kinnock by 7% in 1985.

It was Labour's 11% lead in 1990 which put the pressure on Thatcher.

Yes I am aware of all that although I notice John Smith only led by 8% in 1993 which is perhaps a good comparison as well (although that was county councils and Wales). I am only confident of Labour doing 'well' in Northern Met districts and Wales and I think Bury is the only all up Met council?

I also only expect a modest Labour gain of about 3% in Scotland although Lab could narrowly come 2nd in cllrs there now.

Honestly I think Labour would have to win Plymouth and Swindon and make proper inroads in the West Midlands to put proper pressure on the gvt which I don't see happening.

I think Scottish Labour jumping up from third to second in May is now nailed on. Their recent polling has been great, whereas the Scottish Tories appear to be back down to close to core vote territory.

Further, you’ve got to remember that SLab is the least Unionist of the 3 Unionist parties, and hence the most transfer-friendly in the Single Transferable Vote election in three weeks time. A typical pro-independence voter might rank candidates 1 SNP 2 Grn 3 Lab 4 LD 5 Con. In tight contests that will play out in Sarwar’s favour.

25 SLab candidates in May are pro-independence or pro IndyRef2. A remarkable statistic when you consider the official party line and vitriol these strong individuals have to put up with. As soon as the lock is removed, their numbers will quickly swell. Labour are the final bastion holding the Union together, and their resolve is wavering.

Heathener

StuartDickson said:

Gary_Burton said:

another_richard said:

Gary_Burton said:

MoonRabbit said:

ozymandias said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Fishing said:

FF43 said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://twitter.com/TmorrowsPapers/status/1513989472848863234

How pathetic

When the public hear Johnson and his cheerleaders say he must stay on because of the Ukraine war, do they add rank hypocrisy to the callousness of his original offence? Or do they see a great leader protecting the free world from the Russian aggression?

Actually I'm not sure they're even trying to justify this to others. I think they're trying to convince themselves.

People may think that when Zelensky praises Boris as a great friend of Ukraine, this is for some reason more important than attending a party for ten minutes in his own garden.

Bizarre train of logic, I know.

Thatcher's international standing was godlike by comparison with Boris's, and that didn't stop her being toppled.

Very true.

There needs to be an election by the end of 2023. My analysis and prediction is it can all happen very quickly as soon as the bad local election results are in next month.

In terms of managing expectations, what sort of figure is not very spinnable - minus 500 councillors?

And what is the current expectation for the size of Tory losses? Are we due any sort of polling, or any predictive modelling?

I'm thinking the Tories will lose 200 councillors although I may have underestimated the no. of all out elections so there is potential for more damage on a bad night.

I agree with AndyJS that a Lab lead of 5% or less is perfectly spinnable for the Conservatives.

EdM led by 7% in 2012 and Kinnock by 7% in 1985.

It was Labour's 11% lead in 1990 which put the pressure on Thatcher.

Yes I am aware of all that although I notice John Smith only led by 8% in 1993 which is perhaps a good comparison as well (although that was county councils and Wales). I am only confident of Labour doing 'well' in Northern Met districts and Wales and I think Bury is the only all up Met council?

I also only expect a modest Labour gain of about 3% in Scotland although Lab could narrowly come 2nd in cllrs there now.

Honestly I think Labour would have to win Plymouth and Swindon and make proper inroads in the West Midlands to put proper pressure on the gvt which I don't see happening.

I think Scottish Labour jumping up from third to second in May is now nailed on. Their recent polling has been great, whereas the Scottish Tories appear to be back down to close to core vote territory.

Further, you’ve got to remember that SLab is the least Unionist of the 3 Unionist parties, and hence the most transfer-friendly in the Single Transferable Vote election in three weeks time. A typical pro-independence voter might rank candidates 1 SNP 2 Grn 3 Lab 4 LD 5 Con. In tight contests that will play out in Sarwar’s favour.

25 SLab candidates in May are pro-independence or pro IndyRef2. A remarkable statistic when you consider the official party line and vitriol these strong individuals have to put up with. As soon as the lock is removed, their numbers will quickly swell. Labour are the final bastion holding the Union together, and their resolve is wavering.

Really interesting Stuart.

Assuming Labour can't win outright in GE2024 (they might) and assuming they don't have enough for power with the LibDems alone then an agreement with the SNP at Westminster would be fascinating. It would make the SNP's life a lot easier if they didn't have to fight in the courts to get indyref2 so there's a lot in it for them and I'm fairly sure the two parties could agree to work together, but on the question of independence campaign as free agents. That wouldn't be the first time pragmatism like that has happened.

I don't really understand to be honest why Labour and the LibDems are officially so unionist.

Let Scotland have another vote and decide for themselves! What's wrong with being democratic?

JosiasJessop

Do we have any indications on how the Russian economy is faring in the short term? I believe the rouble is being maintained artificially high because there's f-all trading in it, but what other indicators are out there?

Heathener

StuartDickson said:

When the closest thing the party has to a decent human being is that chancer Ruth Davidson, then the party is finished.

Apparently this is one of the things holding back tory MPs. The heir apparent has turned out to be a dud. There's no one to take over, or so they believe, except via a protracted and bitter leadership fight.

2024 = 1997 Redux

DecrepiterJohnL

StuartDickson said:

Gary_Burton said:

another_richard said:

Gary_Burton said:

MoonRabbit said:

ozymandias said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Fishing said:

FF43 said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://twitter.com/TmorrowsPapers/status/1513989472848863234

How pathetic

When the public hear Johnson and his cheerleaders say he must stay on because of the Ukraine war, do they add rank hypocrisy to the callousness of his original offence? Or do they see a great leader protecting the free world from the Russian aggression?

Actually I'm not sure they're even trying to justify this to others. I think they're trying to convince themselves.

People may think that when Zelensky praises Boris as a great friend of Ukraine, this is for some reason more important than attending a party for ten minutes in his own garden.

Bizarre train of logic, I know.

Thatcher's international standing was godlike by comparison with Boris's, and that didn't stop her being toppled.

Very true.

There needs to be an election by the end of 2023. My analysis and prediction is it can all happen very quickly as soon as the bad local election results are in next month.

In terms of managing expectations, what sort of figure is not very spinnable - minus 500 councillors?

And what is the current expectation for the size of Tory losses? Are we due any sort of polling, or any predictive modelling?

I'm thinking the Tories will lose 200 councillors although I may have underestimated the no. of all out elections so there is potential for more damage on a bad night.

I agree with AndyJS that a Lab lead of 5% or less is perfectly spinnable for the Conservatives.

EdM led by 7% in 2012 and Kinnock by 7% in 1985.

It was Labour's 11% lead in 1990 which put the pressure on Thatcher.

Yes I am aware of all that although I notice John Smith only led by 8% in 1993 which is perhaps a good comparison as well (although that was county councils and Wales). I am only confident of Labour doing 'well' in Northern Met districts and Wales and I think Bury is the only all up Met council?

I also only expect a modest Labour gain of about 3% in Scotland although Lab could narrowly come 2nd in cllrs there now.

Honestly I think Labour would have to win Plymouth and Swindon and make proper inroads in the West Midlands to put proper pressure on the gvt which I don't see happening.

I think Scottish Labour jumping up from third to second in May is now nailed on. Their recent polling has been great, whereas the Scottish Tories appear to be back down to close to core vote territory.

Further, you’ve got to remember that SLab is the least Unionist of the 3 Unionist parties, and hence the most transfer-friendly in the Single Transferable Vote election in three weeks time. A typical pro-independence voter might rank candidates 1 SNP 2 Grn 3 Lab 4 LD 5 Con. In tight contests that will play out in Sarwar’s favour.

25 SLab candidates in May are pro-independence or pro IndyRef2. A remarkable statistic when you consider the official party line and vitriol these strong individuals have to put up with. As soon as the lock is removed, their numbers will quickly swell. Labour are the final bastion holding the Union together, and their resolve is wavering.

The people of Scotland are the final bastion, but since councils have no say in the matter, there might come a point when pro- and anti-independence voters split their vote, voting one way in a general election, another in Scottish Government elections, and a third in local elections. They might still vote the same way, of course, but for different reasons: SNP for independence, versus SNP for collecting bins and mending potholes.

In England, or at least away from the Red Wall, it is probably LibDem successes, if any, that will concentrate the minds of Conservative MPs on the safety of their own seats.

Heathener

Have had a message from someone I know. 'Voted Conservative last time but won't be doing so next time.'

I expect this will be airily dismissed as trolling (sigh) but it's genuine. In plenty of ways I don't mind if tories stick their fingers in their ears, except that it's painful to see the state of this country. The worst part is that at around 2am and 3am on Results night, there will be a selection of tory MPs in tv studios wringing their hands apologetically and saying that they will learn from this and rebuild.

Yeah well: you had your chance to sort it two years before the General Election and you blew it. Not just spineless but immoral.

DecrepiterJohnL

JosiasJessop said:

Do we have any indications on how the Russian economy is faring in the short term? I believe the rouble is being maintained artificially high because there's f-all trading in it, but what other indicators are out there?

Putin has conceded sanctions are having an effect, and we can argue whether paying bond-holders in roubles rather than dollars is a default, and demands for gas payments in roubles are a device to shore up the currency, but my Russian mole says that day-to-day life continues, except for those Russians who lost jobs working for Western companies. Russia was relying huge foreign exchange reserves but Putin was sideswiped by the West's (well, America's) ability to render the point moot by blocking payment mechanisms.

ETA of course, outside Russia we see economic impacts in the forthcoming cost of living crisis as commodities become more expensive if we can buy them at all.

DecrepiterJohnL

Heathener said:

Have had a message from someone I know. 'Voted Conservative last time but won't be doing so next time.'

I expect this will be airily dismissed as trolling (sigh) but it's genuine. In plenty of ways I don't mind if tories stick their fingers in their ears, except that it's painful to see the state of this country. The worst part is that at around 2am and 3am on Results night, there will be a selection of tory MPs in tv studios wringing their hands apologetically and saying that they will learn from this and rebuild.

Yeah well: you had your chance to sort it two years before the General Election and you blew it. Not just spineless but immoral.

It will be interesting to see which Conservative MPs and Ministers are sent out to support the Prime Minister in the news studios. Boris might still receive more fines for other work-related events, and then there is the full Gray report to come.

StuartDickson

Heathener said:

StuartDickson said:

Gary_Burton said:

another_richard said:

Gary_Burton said:

MoonRabbit said:

ozymandias said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Fishing said:

FF43 said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://twitter.com/TmorrowsPapers/status/1513989472848863234

How pathetic

When the public hear Johnson and his cheerleaders say he must stay on because of the Ukraine war, do they add rank hypocrisy to the callousness of his original offence? Or do they see a great leader protecting the free world from the Russian aggression?

Actually I'm not sure they're even trying to justify this to others. I think they're trying to convince themselves.

People may think that when Zelensky praises Boris as a great friend of Ukraine, this is for some reason more important than attending a party for ten minutes in his own garden.

Bizarre train of logic, I know.

Thatcher's international standing was godlike by comparison with Boris's, and that didn't stop her being toppled.

Very true.

There needs to be an election by the end of 2023. My analysis and prediction is it can all happen very quickly as soon as the bad local election results are in next month.

In terms of managing expectations, what sort of figure is not very spinnable - minus 500 councillors?

And what is the current expectation for the size of Tory losses? Are we due any sort of polling, or any predictive modelling?

I'm thinking the Tories will lose 200 councillors although I may have underestimated the no. of all out elections so there is potential for more damage on a bad night.

I agree with AndyJS that a Lab lead of 5% or less is perfectly spinnable for the Conservatives.

EdM led by 7% in 2012 and Kinnock by 7% in 1985.

It was Labour's 11% lead in 1990 which put the pressure on Thatcher.

Yes I am aware of all that although I notice John Smith only led by 8% in 1993 which is perhaps a good comparison as well (although that was county councils and Wales). I am only confident of Labour doing 'well' in Northern Met districts and Wales and I think Bury is the only all up Met council?

I also only expect a modest Labour gain of about 3% in Scotland although Lab could narrowly come 2nd in cllrs there now.

Honestly I think Labour would have to win Plymouth and Swindon and make proper inroads in the West Midlands to put proper pressure on the gvt which I don't see happening.

I think Scottish Labour jumping up from third to second in May is now nailed on. Their recent polling has been great, whereas the Scottish Tories appear to be back down to close to core vote territory.

Further, you’ve got to remember that SLab is the least Unionist of the 3 Unionist parties, and hence the most transfer-friendly in the Single Transferable Vote election in three weeks time. A typical pro-independence voter might rank candidates 1 SNP 2 Grn 3 Lab 4 LD 5 Con. In tight contests that will play out in Sarwar’s favour.

25 SLab candidates in May are pro-independence or pro IndyRef2. A remarkable statistic when you consider the official party line and vitriol these strong individuals have to put up with. As soon as the lock is removed, their numbers will quickly swell. Labour are the final bastion holding the Union together, and their resolve is wavering.

Really interesting Stuart.

Assuming Labour can't win outright in GE2024 (they might) and assuming they don't have enough for power with the LibDems alone then an agreement with the SNP at Westminster would be fascinating. It would make the SNP's life a lot easier if they didn't have to fight in the courts to get indyref2 so there's a lot in it for them and I'm fairly sure the two parties could agree to work together, but on the question of independence campaign as free agents. That wouldn't be the first time pragmatism like that has happened.

I don't really understand to be honest why Labour and the LibDems are officially so unionist.

Let Scotland have another vote and decide for themselves! What's wrong with being democratic?

Their official Unionism is a facade. If you look carefully the cracks are all over the place. The reason you never get a coherent, positive pro-Union line is because there isn’t one. There are a lot of haters, but very few lovers. That rots the soul after decades of pedalling poison. Eventually the rotten construction will simply crumble. A moment of truth will be when/if the Tories try to cobble together their BetterTogether2 brand extension. A lot of decent SLab and SLD people are just going to put their foot down and say enough is enough.

“Muscular Unionism” seemed like a tremendous ploy when cooked-up within the Westminster Bubble, but the long-term debilitating consequences for the Union are irrecoverable. Gordon Brown himself, the saviour of the Union in 2014, tried bravely to make this point for the umpteenth time last week. Predictably, he was once again totally ignored. For the umpteenth time. Some patterns never vary.

Lab Maj has shortened to 5 at the time of writing, and NOM looks like stand out value at 1.91. Not many ways to nearly double your money these days, although rampant inflation is going to make those winnings look less tasty.

StuartDickson

kle4 said:

StuartDickson said:

Scottish Conservatives split as Ruth Davidson demands Boris Johnson resigns over partygate fine

Ruth Davidson has urged Boris Johnson to quit Downing Street - but Douglas Ross wants the Prime Minister to stay on.

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/scottish-conservatives-split-ruth-davidson-26697053

The downsides of giving people a peerage - they no longer need you.

To be fair, Ruth Davidson was a vociferous opponent of Boris Johnson long before she got a peerage.

The modestly successful Ruth Davidson Party was a fascinating interlude in Scottish politics. The interlude is over.

IanB2

ozymandias said:

The Mail being on-side will be a huge relief.

And bloody hell. First.

The Mail displaying its notorious short memory. The object was to avoid spreading the virus, not to stop people having fun.

Downing Street was a conspicuous fail, in terms of avoiding transmission during those most dangerous early days - they almost all came down with it and several took up hospital spaces - a fact strangely forgotten now.

ydoethur

IanB2 said:

ozymandias said:

The Mail being on-side will be a huge relief.

And bloody hell. First.

The Mail displaying its notorious short memory. The object was to avoid spreading the virus, not to stop people having fun.

Downing Street was a conspicuous fail, in terms of avoiding transmission during those most dangerous early days - they almost all came down with it and several took up hospital spaces - a fact strangely forgotten now.

Hardly surprising given the regulations they were wilfully and repeatedly ignoring and the fact their buildings are not only office space - which seems to have been about the worst imaginable vector of transmission - but very old office space in cramped and unsuitable layouts.

Taz

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Heathener said:

Have had a message from someone I know. 'Voted Conservative last time but won't be doing so next time.'

I expect this will be airily dismissed as trolling (sigh) but it's genuine. In plenty of ways I don't mind if tories stick their fingers in their ears, except that it's painful to see the state of this country. The worst part is that at around 2am and 3am on Results night, there will be a selection of tory MPs in tv studios wringing their hands apologetically and saying that they will learn from this and rebuild.

Yeah well: you had your chance to sort it two years before the General Election and you blew it. Not just spineless but immoral.

It will be interesting to see which Conservative MPs and Ministers are sent out to support the Prime Minister in the news studios. Boris might still receive more fines for other work-related events, and then there is the full Gray report to come.

Grant Shapps today according to Twitter.

RochdalePioneers

FPT

ozymandias said:

I remember in the 2015 Election thinking "how can anyone vote for this man Corbyn". He enraged me with who he was, what he had done, the people he mixed with, the history he had. I became blind. And I screamed at the TV every time the man appeared. The Mail slung shit at him on near daily basis - all based ON THE MAN. But nothing, NOTHING seemed to dent the crowds, the adulation and I thought "how is this possible".

I felt like Johnson opponents today.

What Corbyn's opponents failed to concentrate on, at least in 2015 was his policies. All the focus on the man hid his policies which weren't examined enough or challenged enough. They weren't shredded for the crap that they were. And he nearly got elected.

In 2019 - people knew the man already. It was priced in. They took one look at the policies and it was a big "no thanks".

So Johnson and Corbyn very similar. Play the ball. Not the man.

I get all that. But in this case the ball is a very simple principle that ministers cannot lie to parliament. Cannot break the law. That Boris is a liar isn't the issue. That the Prime Minister lied and broke the law is the issue.

Any other PM - including every previous Tory one - would have gone already as a matter of simple principle. They had standards. Morals. Honour.

So we cannot let this man stay in office and debase our entire political system. There is too much at risk if we allow this and slide towards authoritarianism.

ydoethur

Taz said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Heathener said:

Have had a message from someone I know. 'Voted Conservative last time but won't be doing so next time.'

I expect this will be airily dismissed as trolling (sigh) but it's genuine. In plenty of ways I don't mind if tories stick their fingers in their ears, except that it's painful to see the state of this country. The worst part is that at around 2am and 3am on Results night, there will be a selection of tory MPs in tv studios wringing their hands apologetically and saying that they will learn from this and rebuild.

Yeah well: you had your chance to sort it two years before the General Election and you blew it. Not just spineless but immoral.

It will be interesting to see which Conservative MPs and Ministers are sent out to support the Prime Minister in the news studios. Boris might still receive more fines for other work-related events, and then there is the full Gray report to come.

Grant Shapps today according to Twitter.

Well, if he considered lying to Parliament to be a serious matter, he would not have put forward the IRP. Or, indeed, would have left Parliament after that time he was caught posing as a Liberal Democrat and ludicrously pretended his account had been hacked.

So I'm not surprised he's a Johnson partisan.

RochdalePioneers

Heathener said:

StuartDickson said:

Gary_Burton said:

another_richard said:

Gary_Burton said:

MoonRabbit said:

ozymandias said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Fishing said:

FF43 said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://twitter.com/TmorrowsPapers/status/1513989472848863234

How pathetic

When the public hear Johnson and his cheerleaders say he must stay on because of the Ukraine war, do they add rank hypocrisy to the callousness of his original offence? Or do they see a great leader protecting the free world from the Russian aggression?

Actually I'm not sure they're even trying to justify this to others. I think they're trying to convince themselves.

People may think that when Zelensky praises Boris as a great friend of Ukraine, this is for some reason more important than attending a party for ten minutes in his own garden.

Bizarre train of logic, I know.

Thatcher's international standing was godlike by comparison with Boris's, and that didn't stop her being toppled.

Very true.

There needs to be an election by the end of 2023. My analysis and prediction is it can all happen very quickly as soon as the bad local election results are in next month.

In terms of managing expectations, what sort of figure is not very spinnable - minus 500 councillors?

And what is the current expectation for the size of Tory losses? Are we due any sort of polling, or any predictive modelling?

I'm thinking the Tories will lose 200 councillors although I may have underestimated the no. of all out elections so there is potential for more damage on a bad night.

I agree with AndyJS that a Lab lead of 5% or less is perfectly spinnable for the Conservatives.

EdM led by 7% in 2012 and Kinnock by 7% in 1985.

It was Labour's 11% lead in 1990 which put the pressure on Thatcher.

Yes I am aware of all that although I notice John Smith only led by 8% in 1993 which is perhaps a good comparison as well (although that was county councils and Wales). I am only confident of Labour doing 'well' in Northern Met districts and Wales and I think Bury is the only all up Met council?

I also only expect a modest Labour gain of about 3% in Scotland although Lab could narrowly come 2nd in cllrs there now.

Honestly I think Labour would have to win Plymouth and Swindon and make proper inroads in the West Midlands to put proper pressure on the gvt which I don't see happening.

I think Scottish Labour jumping up from third to second in May is now nailed on. Their recent polling has been great, whereas the Scottish Tories appear to be back down to close to core vote territory.

Further, you’ve got to remember that SLab is the least Unionist of the 3 Unionist parties, and hence the most transfer-friendly in the Single Transferable Vote election in three weeks time. A typical pro-independence voter might rank candidates 1 SNP 2 Grn 3 Lab 4 LD 5 Con. In tight contests that will play out in Sarwar’s favour.

25 SLab candidates in May are pro-independence or pro IndyRef2. A remarkable statistic when you consider the official party line and vitriol these strong individuals have to put up with. As soon as the lock is removed, their numbers will quickly swell. Labour are the final bastion holding the Union together, and their resolve is wavering.

Really interesting Stuart.

Assuming Labour can't win outright in GE2024 (they might) and assuming they don't have enough for power with the LibDems alone then an agreement with the SNP at Westminster would be fascinating. It would make the SNP's life a lot easier if they didn't have to fight in the courts to get indyref2 so there's a lot in it for them and I'm fairly sure the two parties could agree to work together, but on the question of independence campaign as free agents. That wouldn't be the first time pragmatism like that has happened.

I don't really understand to be honest why Labour and the LibDems are officially so unionist.

Let Scotland have another vote and decide for themselves! What's wrong with being democratic?

We're not. LibDems are federalist

DecrepiterJohnL

ydoethur said:

Taz said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Heathener said:

Have had a message from someone I know. 'Voted Conservative last time but won't be doing so next time.'

I expect this will be airily dismissed as trolling (sigh) but it's genuine. In plenty of ways I don't mind if tories stick their fingers in their ears, except that it's painful to see the state of this country. The worst part is that at around 2am and 3am on Results night, there will be a selection of tory MPs in tv studios wringing their hands apologetically and saying that they will learn from this and rebuild.

Yeah well: you had your chance to sort it two years before the General Election and you blew it. Not just spineless but immoral.

It will be interesting to see which Conservative MPs and Ministers are sent out to support the Prime Minister in the news studios. Boris might still receive more fines for other work-related events, and then there is the full Gray report to come.

Grant Shapps today according to Twitter.

Well, if he considered lying to Parliament to be a serious matter, he would not have put forward the IRP. Or, indeed, would have left Parliament after that time he was caught posing as a Liberal Democrat and ludicrously pretended his account had been hacked.

So I'm not surprised he's a Johnson partisan.

Shapps was a key part in Boris's leadership election team.

Dura_Ace

JosiasJessop said:

Do we have any indications on how the Russian economy is faring in the short term? I believe the rouble is being maintained artificially high because there's f-all trading in it, but what other indicators are out there?

I have a few mates on VK and it seems like business as usual with some inflation making itself evident in the Porsche and BMW parts of shadowy provenance game. Some consumer goods are hard to get but there is a rapidly growing sanctions busting smuggling racket going on across the Amur presumably with both Chinese and Russian governments turning a blind eye to it.

ydoethur

RochdalePioneers said:

FPT

ozymandias said:

I remember in the 2015 Election thinking "how can anyone vote for this man Corbyn". He enraged me with who he was, what he had done, the people he mixed with, the history he had. I became blind. And I screamed at the TV every time the man appeared. The Mail slung shit at him on near daily basis - all based ON THE MAN. But nothing, NOTHING seemed to dent the crowds, the adulation and I thought "how is this possible".

I felt like Johnson opponents today.

What Corbyn's opponents failed to concentrate on, at least in 2015 was his policies. All the focus on the man hid his policies which weren't examined enough or challenged enough. They weren't shredded for the crap that they were. And he nearly got elected.

In 2019 - people knew the man already. It was priced in. They took one look at the policies and it was a big "no thanks".

So Johnson and Corbyn very similar. Play the ball. Not the man.

I get all that. But in this case the ball is a very simple principle that ministers cannot lie to parliament. Cannot break the law. That Boris is a liar isn't the issue. That the Prime Minister lied and broke the law is the issue.

Any other PM - including every previous Tory one - would have gone already as a matter of simple principle. They had standards. Morals. Honour.

So we cannot let this man stay in office and debase our entire political system. There is too much at risk if we allow this and slide towards authoritarianism.

Can I make one fairly important correction? You should have said 'cannot get *caught* lying to Parliament *to further their own careers.*'

Most PMs at least dissemble on certain topics when speaking to Parliament. If, for example, Johnson were asked how we know so much about Russian military operations even he wouldn't be stupid enough to say. Some, like Pitt the Younger over his dealings with George III, just outright lie.

But when politicians have been caught lying for their own interests, a la Profumo, then they have to go.

The fact Johnson has not only survived lying to the House but has presided over a cabinet where numerous other ministers have wilfully and openly misled the House is to my mind by far the most shocking thing about him - not that he broke some confused regulations drawn up by a bunch of third rate drunks.

ydoethur

DecrepiterJohnL said:

ydoethur said:

Taz said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Heathener said:

Have had a message from someone I know. 'Voted Conservative last time but won't be doing so next time.'

I expect this will be airily dismissed as trolling (sigh) but it's genuine. In plenty of ways I don't mind if tories stick their fingers in their ears, except that it's painful to see the state of this country. The worst part is that at around 2am and 3am on Results night, there will be a selection of tory MPs in tv studios wringing their hands apologetically and saying that they will learn from this and rebuild.

Yeah well: you had your chance to sort it two years before the General Election and you blew it. Not just spineless but immoral.

It will be interesting to see which Conservative MPs and Ministers are sent out to support the Prime Minister in the news studios. Boris might still receive more fines for other work-related events, and then there is the full Gray report to come.

Grant Shapps today according to Twitter.

Well, if he considered lying to Parliament to be a serious matter, he would not have put forward the IRP. Or, indeed, would have left Parliament after that time he was caught posing as a Liberal Democrat and ludicrously pretended his account had been hacked.

So I'm not surprised he's a Johnson partisan.

Shapps was a key part in Boris's leadership election team.

A man is known by the company he keeps - and that goes for both of them!

Heathener

RochdalePioneers said:

Heathener said:

StuartDickson said:

Gary_Burton said:

another_richard said:

Gary_Burton said:

MoonRabbit said:

ozymandias said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Fishing said:

FF43 said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://twitter.com/TmorrowsPapers/status/1513989472848863234

How pathetic

When the public hear Johnson and his cheerleaders say he must stay on because of the Ukraine war, do they add rank hypocrisy to the callousness of his original offence? Or do they see a great leader protecting the free world from the Russian aggression?

Actually I'm not sure they're even trying to justify this to others. I think they're trying to convince themselves.

People may think that when Zelensky praises Boris as a great friend of Ukraine, this is for some reason more important than attending a party for ten minutes in his own garden.

Bizarre train of logic, I know.

Thatcher's international standing was godlike by comparison with Boris's, and that didn't stop her being toppled.

Very true.

There needs to be an election by the end of 2023. My analysis and prediction is it can all happen very quickly as soon as the bad local election results are in next month.

In terms of managing expectations, what sort of figure is not very spinnable - minus 500 councillors?

And what is the current expectation for the size of Tory losses? Are we due any sort of polling, or any predictive modelling?

I'm thinking the Tories will lose 200 councillors although I may have underestimated the no. of all out elections so there is potential for more damage on a bad night.

I agree with AndyJS that a Lab lead of 5% or less is perfectly spinnable for the Conservatives.

EdM led by 7% in 2012 and Kinnock by 7% in 1985.

It was Labour's 11% lead in 1990 which put the pressure on Thatcher.

Yes I am aware of all that although I notice John Smith only led by 8% in 1993 which is perhaps a good comparison as well (although that was county councils and Wales). I am only confident of Labour doing 'well' in Northern Met districts and Wales and I think Bury is the only all up Met council?

I also only expect a modest Labour gain of about 3% in Scotland although Lab could narrowly come 2nd in cllrs there now.

Honestly I think Labour would have to win Plymouth and Swindon and make proper inroads in the West Midlands to put proper pressure on the gvt which I don't see happening.

I think Scottish Labour jumping up from third to second in May is now nailed on. Their recent polling has been great, whereas the Scottish Tories appear to be back down to close to core vote territory.

Further, you’ve got to remember that SLab is the least Unionist of the 3 Unionist parties, and hence the most transfer-friendly in the Single Transferable Vote election in three weeks time. A typical pro-independence voter might rank candidates 1 SNP 2 Grn 3 Lab 4 LD 5 Con. In tight contests that will play out in Sarwar’s favour.

25 SLab candidates in May are pro-independence or pro IndyRef2. A remarkable statistic when you consider the official party line and vitriol these strong individuals have to put up with. As soon as the lock is removed, their numbers will quickly swell. Labour are the final bastion holding the Union together, and their resolve is wavering.

Really interesting Stuart.

Assuming Labour can't win outright in GE2024 (they might) and assuming they don't have enough for power with the LibDems alone then an agreement with the SNP at Westminster would be fascinating. It would make the SNP's life a lot easier if they didn't have to fight in the courts to get indyref2 so there's a lot in it for them and I'm fairly sure the two parties could agree to work together, but on the question of independence campaign as free agents. That wouldn't be the first time pragmatism like that has happened.

I don't really understand to be honest why Labour and the LibDems are officially so unionist.

Let Scotland have another vote and decide for themselves! What's wrong with being democratic?

We're not. LibDems are federalist

Ah okay but I was very disappointed at Ed Davey's heavily critical comments about independence and even the idea of holding another democratic referendum.

https://www.thenational.scot/news/18732578.libdems-ed-davey-dismisses-scottish-independence-distraction/

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/scottish-independence-brexit-2-0-155056438.html

DecrepiterJohnL

OT we are halfway (-ish) through April and I am contemplating turning the heating off — for the third time this year.

Heathener

Anyway off to get some work done. Looks like more fines for Boris over coming days and then the full Sue Gray report next week when Parliament reconvenes.

He's not out of the woods yet and I notice the Daily Telegraph is pretty critical today. If it weren't for the parlous state of the country I'd be okay with him clinging on until 2024 because he'll get thumped at the ballot box. People aren't going to forget this, whatever the skewed pb demographic may opine to the contrary.

Have a good day everyone.

xx

Nigelb

Pentagon looks to vastly expand weapons for Ukraine

The Pentagon is looking to transfer Mi-17 helicopters, armored Humvees, and a range of other arms and equipment.
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1514105850775826433

Taz

ydoethur said:

Taz said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Heathener said:

Have had a message from someone I know. 'Voted Conservative last time but won't be doing so next time.'

I expect this will be airily dismissed as trolling (sigh) but it's genuine. In plenty of ways I don't mind if tories stick their fingers in their ears, except that it's painful to see the state of this country. The worst part is that at around 2am and 3am on Results night, there will be a selection of tory MPs in tv studios wringing their hands apologetically and saying that they will learn from this and rebuild.

Yeah well: you had your chance to sort it two years before the General Election and you blew it. Not just spineless but immoral.

It will be interesting to see which Conservative MPs and Ministers are sent out to support the Prime Minister in the news studios. Boris might still receive more fines for other work-related events, and then there is the full Gray report to come.

Grant Shapps today according to Twitter.

Well, if he considered lying to Parliament to be a serious matter, he would not have put forward the IRP. Or, indeed, would have left Parliament after that time he was caught posing as a Liberal Democrat and ludicrously pretended his account had been hacked.

So I'm not surprised he's a Johnson partisan.

‘Michael Green’

Taz

Heathener said:

Anyway off to get some work done. Looks like more fines for Boris over coming days and then the full Sue Gray report next week when Parliament reconvenes.

He's not out of the woods yet and I notice the Daily Telegraph is pretty critical today. If it weren't for the parlous state of the country I'd be okay with him clinging on until 2024 because he'll get thumped at the ballot box. People aren't going to forget this, whatever the skewed pb demographic may opine to the contrary.

Have a good day everyone.

xx

I hope he stays. I have a few bets, mostly free ones from ladbrokes, on starmer as next PM

JosiasJessop

Nigelb said:

Pentagon looks to vastly expand weapons for Ukraine

The Pentagon is looking to transfer Mi-17 helicopters, armored Humvees, and a range of other arms and equipment.
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1514105850775826433

A problem all friendly countries have is that their own stocks of weaponry are low - and they need to keep some back for their own use. Replenishment takes time.

Even the US has problems. They have given 7,000 Javelins to Ukraine. That is 1/3 of their inventory. Yet they only make 1,000 a year - and could, with time, get it up to 6,480 a year.

They have sent 2,000 Stingers to Ukraine. They do not make them for themselves any more, and it is believed that the 2,000 is one quarter of the US's remaining stocks. Lead time is 24 months.

There is only so much material that can be given. That does not really excuse Germany (and to a lesser extent France's) tardiness in providing anything.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/will-united-states-run-out-javelins-russia-runs-out-tanks

TimT

I see that Russia is now dependent solely on Bolivia for lithium imports, if this article is correct:

https://twitter.com/Mihoflowersy/status/1514089019256492033

TimT

JosiasJessop said:

Nigelb said:

Pentagon looks to vastly expand weapons for Ukraine

The Pentagon is looking to transfer Mi-17 helicopters, armored Humvees, and a range of other arms and equipment.
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1514105850775826433

A problem all friendly countries have is that their own stocks of weaponry are low - and they need to keep some back for their own use. Replenishment takes time.

Even the US has problems. They have given 7,000 Javelins to Ukraine. That is 1/3 of their inventory. Yet they only make 1,000 a year - and could, with time, get it up to 6,480 a year.

They have sent 2,000 Stingers to Ukraine. They do not make them for themselves any more, and it is believed that the 2,000 is one quarter of the US's remaining stocks. Lead time is 24 months.

There is only so much material that can be given. That does not really excuse Germany (and to a lesser extent France's) tardiness in providing anything.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/will-united-states-run-out-javelins-russia-runs-out-tanks

I saw that number for the Stingers, but was surprised, in that I thought the Stingers were being phased our by the US. But then I saw that that process of replacement is only just in the earliest stages, so clearly years before the delivery of the first new system.

MarqueeMark

Heathener said:

Have had a message from someone I know. 'Voted Conservative last time but won't be doing so next time.'

Yep, Putin must be really pissed at his investment....

Jonathan

MarqueeMark said:

Heathener said:

Have had a message from someone I know. 'Voted Conservative last time but won't be doing so next time.'

Yep, Putin must be really pissed at his investment....

How are you feeling about it in the cold light of day. Not happy I would imagine, but in a difficult position.

TimT

Now this would be big:

NEW:
@OMarkarova
, Ukraine's ambassador to the United States, met last week with officials from
@GeneralAtomics
, maker of Reaper and Predator drones.

General Atomics says it has unmanned strike aircraft ready to go if the U.S. government approves.

Scott_xP

Jonathan said:

How are you feeling about it in the cold light of day. Not happy I would imagine, but in a difficult position.

Why?

He wanted BoZo to be PM.

BoZo is still PM and showing no signs of leaving.

Party on, dudes!

Dura_Ace

Scott_xP said:

Jonathan said:

How are you feeling about it in the cold light of day. Not happy I would imagine, but in a difficult position.

Why?

He wanted BoZo to be PM.

BoZo is still PM and showing no signs of leaving.

Party on, dudes!

The punishment for Johnson's most devoted postulants is having Johnson as PM.

Taz

TimT said:

Now this would be big:

NEW:
@OMarkarova
, Ukraine's ambassador to the United States, met last week with officials from
@GeneralAtomics
, maker of Reaper and Predator drones.

General Atomics says it has unmanned strike aircraft ready to go if the U.S. government approves.

I wonder if they are letting them go FOC or at cost, if approved.

Scott_xP

The thing to understand about today for Conservative MPs is that the humiliation, the furious letters, the social media abuse, the pride-swallowing to support law-breaking, all that will feel worth it when Boris Johnson unveils his plan to level up and unite the country.
https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1514001968078991365

CarlottaVance

I wonder how many read the Mail online vs in print?

The online lead is:

Rishi Sunak 'had to be talked out of resigning over Partygate penalty because it would have pressured PM do the same' - while Sue Gray report on scandal 'will be published next week and will NOT make comfortable reading' amid fears of MORE fines for Boris

Boris Johnson may face more woe over the coming days, amid claims Sue Gray's report into the Partygate scandal is due next week and 'will not make comfortable reading' - potentially even leading to more fines.

The Met revealed on Tuesday that at least 30 more fixed penalty notices were issued over the saga, with a spokesman for Number 10 confirming Mr Johnson, his wife Carrie and Chancellor Rishi Sunak will be among the recipients.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10712829/As-rivals-tell-Boris-rule-maker-rule-breaker-Tory-backbenchers-hit-back.html

MarqueeMark

JosiasJessop said:

Nigelb said:

Pentagon looks to vastly expand weapons for Ukraine

The Pentagon is looking to transfer Mi-17 helicopters, armored Humvees, and a range of other arms and equipment.
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1514105850775826433

A problem all friendly countries have is that their own stocks of weaponry are low - and they need to keep some back for their own use. Replenishment takes time.

Even the US has problems. They have given 7,000 Javelins to Ukraine. That is 1/3 of their inventory. Yet they only make 1,000 a year - and could, with time, get it up to 6,480 a year.

They have sent 2,000 Stingers to Ukraine. They do not make them for themselves any more, and it is believed that the 2,000 is one quarter of the US's remaining stocks. Lead time is 24 months.

There is only so much material that can be given. That does not really excuse Germany (and to a lesser extent France's) tardiness in providing anything.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/will-united-states-run-out-javelins-russia-runs-out-tanks

The US and several other nations, the UK amongst them, have clearly taken the view that these stocks of weapons are unlikely to be needed in any other scenario in say the next five years. So rather than fire them by their use-by date in a live-fire exercise, they can be put to a purpose that furthers NATO's aims - of destroying capability of a potential and very real aggressor.

China may take some comfort that there wouldn't be masses of Javelins for Taiwan. But for that adventure, the Chinese are going to need years if not decades to acquire/develop some better kit than they have got from the Russians. And the worldwide stocks of anti-ship missiles are still largely intact, and if they perform anywhere near as well as the other kit being sent to Ukraine...

Russia is going to have another go to try and make blitzkrieg work in Ukraine. That attempt needs to fail. So ship to Ukraine whatever they can use. It's a proxy war and every piece of Russian kit they destroy weakens Russia's ability to cross over any other borders. And if they did cross a NATO border, the assessment following Ukraine is that the stuff NATO has in reserve will more than do the job required.

ping

Michael Hewson 🇬🇧
@mhewson_CMC
·
1m
UK Core CPI (Mar) act: 5.7%, exp: 5.3%, prev: 5.2%,

UK RPI (Mar) act: 9%, exp: 8.8%, prev: 8.2%,

UK PPI Input (Mar) act: 19.2%, exp: 15.1%, prev: 14.7%,

UK PPI Output (Mar) act: 11.9%, exp: 11.1%, prev:10.1%,

Taz

ping said:

Michael Hewson 🇬🇧
@mhewson_CMC
·
1m
UK Core CPI (Mar) act: 5.7%, exp: 5.3%, prev: 5.2%,

UK RPI (Mar) act: 9%, exp: 8.8%, prev: 8.2%,

UK PPI Input (Mar) act: 19.2%, exp: 15.1%, prev: 14.7%,

UK PPI Output (Mar) act: 11.9%, exp: 11.1%, prev:10.1%,

It’s looking grim.

CHB is right. This will do,for the Tories.

ping

Inflayyyyyyshun

MarqueeMark

Jonathan said:

MarqueeMark said:

Heathener said:

Have had a message from someone I know. 'Voted Conservative last time but won't be doing so next time.'

Yep, Putin must be really pissed at his investment....

How are you feeling about it in the cold light of day. Not happy I would imagine, but in a difficult position.

I have made my position clear. For months now.

SouthamObserver

The most ridiculous thing about that ridiculous Daily Mail front page is the claim that Johnson ate a salad at the party. As if!

That said, if there was food to eat it was not an impromptu gathering, was it?

Eabhal

Taz said:

TimT said:

Now this would be big:

NEW:
@OMarkarova
, Ukraine's ambassador to the United States, met last week with officials from
@GeneralAtomics
, maker of Reaper and Predator drones.

General Atomics says it has unmanned strike aircraft ready to go if the U.S. government approves.

I wonder if they are letting them go FOC or at cost, if approved.

And if they will fly from US air bases. And be controlled by "pilots" in Nevada, like British drones used to be.

Jonathan

MarqueeMark said:

Jonathan said:

MarqueeMark said:

Heathener said:

Have had a message from someone I know. 'Voted Conservative last time but won't be doing so next time.'

Yep, Putin must be really pissed at his investment....

How are you feeling about it in the cold light of day. Not happy I would imagine, but in a difficult position.

I have made my position clear. For months now.

Sorry, I missed it, I can’t read every post. Imagine it’s tricky for you.

MarqueeMark

Dura_Ace said:

Scott_xP said:

Jonathan said:

How are you feeling about it in the cold light of day. Not happy I would imagine, but in a difficult position.

Why?

He wanted BoZo to be PM.

BoZo is still PM and showing no signs of leaving.

Party on, dudes!

The punishment for Johnson's most devoted postulants is having Johnson as PM.

He did the job. Kept Corbyn out of power with an 80 seat majority - smashed him to the point where that strand of political thinking that so nearly took hold is now only espoused by a handful of proponents. And them, like Corbyn, now outside the Labour Party. (The silenced STOP THE WAR Coalition over Ukraine is especially pleasing, given how galling it must be for Soviet fan-bois to have to suck up. Still, a bit difficult when they have been on a Red Army-style orgy of raping, looting and pillaging. The poster boy for Russian Armed Forces is now captioned: WANTED FOR PAEDO-RAPE AND MURDER.

He did the job of getting Brexit through a previously stalemated political establishment.

He did the job of getting England through an upper-quartile outcome on Covid.

Now time to turf him out before the next election. Use him and abuse him, as he would one of his romantic dalliances. He has served his purpose; onwards and upwards. He could hardly complain.

And turf him out before the next election those Conservative MPs otherwise consigned to the dole inevitably will.

Stuartinromford

Dura_Ace said:

Scott_xP said:

Jonathan said:

How are you feeling about it in the cold light of day. Not happy I would imagine, but in a difficult position.

Why?

He wanted BoZo to be PM.

BoZo is still PM and showing no signs of leaving.

Party on, dudes!

The punishment for Johnson's most devoted postulants is having Johnson as PM.

One of the gods' favourite punishments is to give a mortal exactly what they want.

Scott_xP

MarqueeMark said:

And turf him out before the next election those Conservative MPs otherwise consigned to the dole inevitably will.

No, they won't.

TheScreamingEagles

Anyone know what the Daily Mail front page looked like after the Norway debate?

JosiasJessop

Taz said:

TimT said:

Now this would be big:

NEW:
@OMarkarova
, Ukraine's ambassador to the United States, met last week with officials from
@GeneralAtomics
, maker of Reaper and Predator drones.

General Atomics says it has unmanned strike aircraft ready to go if the U.S. government approves.

I wonder if they are letting them go FOC or at cost, if approved.

A week ago the US revived the lend-lease act for use with Ukraine

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/lend-lease-for-ukraine-us-revives-wwii-anti-hitler-policy-to-defeat-putin/

I'd imagine such systems would be provided under lend-lease.

Big_G_NorthWales

Scott_xP said:

MarqueeMark said:

And turf him out before the next election those Conservative MPs otherwise consigned to the dole inevitably will.

No, they won't.

They will if they think he is going to see them lose their seats

ping

CPI 7%

Scott_xP

Big_G_NorthWales said:

They will if they think he is going to see them lose their seats

He is, and they have failed to act.

MarqueeMark

Scott_xP said:

MarqueeMark said:

And turf him out before the next election those Conservative MPs otherwise consigned to the dole inevitably will.

No, they won't.

Want one of my special gold sovereign bets on it? That the Conservative Party will not be led by Boris Johnson into the next election?

I still have sufficient regard for you that you wouldn't welch on it - unlike tim, formerly of this parish.

OldKingCole

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, however self-described.

'Interesting' morning yesterday, and a pleasant looking one, at least at the moment. The birds in our garden are socialising, singing, feeding and, quite often, copulating.
It's a scene which would do credit to an avian Roman orgy.

Which takes our minds off the cess-pit to which our nation's leadership has become.

JosiasJessop

Johnson should go.

But those saying that ministers serving under him should feel shame should remember that Starmer served under Corbyn, and it did not do his career much harm ...

Big_G_NorthWales

Scott_xP said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

They will if they think he is going to see them lose their seats

He is, and they have failed to act.

There is a long time to the next GE and certainly sufficient for the conservative party to take action

Scott_xP

MarqueeMark said:

Want one of my special gold sovereign bets on it? That the Conservative Party will not be led by Boris Johnson into the next election?

That's a different proposition.

BoZo might well walk away

SouthamObserver

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Scott_xP said:

MarqueeMark said:

And turf him out before the next election those Conservative MPs otherwise consigned to the dole inevitably will.

No, they won't.

They will if they think he is going to see them lose their seats

Yep - that is their sole concern. And they still lecture others on patriotism, democracy and the rule of law!

IshmaelZ

This is Downfall redux for Sunak. Magical and quite unforeseen (because nobody thought Mr coke addict was a party animal) opportunity to turn the tables on Johnson and he fluffs it. Silly little man.

Scott_xP

Big_G_NorthWales said:

There is a long time to the next GE and certainly sufficient for the conservative party to take action

The Tory party this morning...

They can’t back down. Half of it’s Brexit, half of it’s the Johnson cult. They’ve inflicted immeasurable damage on our country & installed a leader so corrupt they have no choice but to join him in denying basic reality. Admit even an iota of truth & their whole lives fall apart.
https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/1513969556598968322

Scott_xP

It’s no surprise that B Johnson set the rules ..broke the rules..and lied about doing so..But it tells us much about this cabinet and parliamentary party that they are still backing a law breaker. No other Tory cabinet and parliamentary party I can think of would have done so.
https://twitter.com/steverichards14/status/1514128235969355778

Big_G_NorthWales

I expect that with further fines likely, the may elections which look very difficult for the party, and the Sue Gray report Boris greatest moment of peril will arrive in may and june

I hope that the party then takes decisive action and elects a new leader

Nigelb

JosiasJessop said:

Nigelb said:

Pentagon looks to vastly expand weapons for Ukraine

The Pentagon is looking to transfer Mi-17 helicopters, armored Humvees, and a range of other arms and equipment.
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1514105850775826433

A problem all friendly countries have is that their own stocks of weaponry are low - and they need to keep some back for their own use. Replenishment takes time.

Even the US has problems. They have given 7,000 Javelins to Ukraine. That is 1/3 of their inventory. Yet they only make 1,000 a year - and could, with time, get it up to 6,480 a year.

They have sent 2,000 Stingers to Ukraine. They do not make them for themselves any more, and it is believed that the 2,000 is one quarter of the US's remaining stocks. Lead time is 24 months.

There is only so much material that can be given. That does not really excuse Germany (and to a lesser extent France's) tardiness in providing anything.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/will-united-states-run-out-javelins-russia-runs-out-tanks

One reason they need heavy artillery.
What they have, they've used very well, but it's limited, as are their stocks of ammunition.
Some NATO standard kit (like the howitzers supposedly coming from Czechia) would open up a very large potential supply of ammunition.

Fishing

FPT -

Luckyguy1983 said:

Fishing said:

FF43 said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://twitter.com/TmorrowsPapers/status/1513989472848863234

How pathetic

When the public hear Johnson and his cheerleaders say he must stay on because of the Ukraine war, do they add rank hypocrisy to the callousness of his original offence? Or do they see a great leader protecting the free world from the Russian aggression?

Actually I'm not sure they're even trying to justify this to others. I think they're trying to convince themselves.

People may think that when Zelensky praises Boris as a great friend of Ukraine, this is for some reason more important than attending a party for ten minutes in his own garden.

Bizarre train of logic, I know.

Thatcher's international standing was godlike by comparison with Boris's, and that didn't stop her being toppled.

Mrs Thatcher was toppled because of hugely important policy issues - mainly Europe and the Community Charge. Not because of some trivial personal mistake. Even then it was a close thing, and it traumatised the party for a decade.

There are plenty of good reasons to get rid of Boris - raising taxes when he said he wouldn't, unnecessary loackdowns, lying about borders in the Irish Sea, etc. But I think getting rid of him over a triviality like this will delegitimise the process and in a few weeks or months people will regret it.

Also there's no obvious successor who would be any better.

Scott_xP

The Tory MPs who will take decisive action to remove BoZo at some point...

"Ok, I need you to get out there now and tweet that the PM has apologised and has your full support. Talk about how he's getting on with dealing with huge challenges." https://twitter.com/_johnbye/status/1514008753586282498/photo/1

Yeah, right.

Stuartinromford

IshmaelZ said:

This is Downfall redux for Sunak. Magical and quite unforeseen (because nobody thought Mr coke addict was a party animal) opportunity to turn the tables on Johnson and he fluffs it. Silly little man.

Of course he's a silly little man.

If he were a wise man or a (metaphorical) big man, he wouldn't have been offered the job and wouldn't have accepted it anyway.

OldKingCole

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I expect that with further fines likely, the may elections which look very difficult for the party, and the Sue Gray report Boris greatest moment of peril will arrive in may and june

I hope that the party then takes decisive action and elects a new leader

Most of the candidates are corrupted by association with Johnson, though. Wallace has, after all, served in the Cabinet. Hunt scrapped our stock of PPE, or as good as.
To name but two.

Scott_xP

Fishing said:

I think getting rid of him over a triviality like this

The only PM in history confirmed to have broken the law.

I know the Brexit cult have no regard to the rule of law, but I hoped the Country as a whole still did.

Apparently not.

Scott_xP

I am not naive enough to think that honour determines politics but I am surprised by how few Tories mourn the death of the Ministerial Code or feel a sense of foreboding that future Prime Ministers may mislead Parliament or break the law without consequence. There will be a cost.
https://twitter.com/theobertram/status/1514129924084404229

Big_G_NorthWales

OldKingCole said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I expect that with further fines likely, the may elections which look very difficult for the party, and the Sue Gray report Boris greatest moment of peril will arrive in may and june

I hope that the party then takes decisive action and elects a new leader

Most of the candidates are corrupted by association with Johnson, though. Wallace has, after all, served in the Cabinet. Hunt scrapped our stock of PPE, or as good as.
To name but two.

You could apply the same logic to Starmer and his cabinet who all campaigned to elect Corbyn

IshmaelZ

Betting on number of Conservative MPs to resign the whip today?

Foxy

IshmaelZ said:

Betting on number of Conservative MPs to resign the whip today?

Zero

malcolmg

Shall was unbelievably crap, squirming as he lied through his teeth, just came out with any old rubbish to questions, etc. Excruciating to watch him squirm on the hook.

Big_G_NorthWales

IshmaelZ said:

Betting on number of Conservative MPs to resign the whip today?

If a cabinet minister broke ranks and resigned, then that would be a big moment

IshmaelZ

Foxy said:

IshmaelZ said:

Betting on number of Conservative MPs to resign the whip today?

Zero

Could be negative actually, perhaps the one who crossed the floor at PMQs will be so impressed he will cross back

Scott_xP

Big_G_NorthWales said:

If a cabinet minister broke ranks and resigned, then that would be a big moment

They hitched their wagon to the greased piglet.

Why quit when it looks like he has got away with it again?

mickydroy

The liar will not go of his own accord, he has no morals whatsoever, and shame on the Tory Party en masse who dont have the backbone to get rid, more than anytime I can remember the Torys need to lose and lose big at the next GE, I'm still not convinced this will happen, look at the pathetic Daily Mail if you need proof

OldKingCole

Big_G_NorthWales said:

OldKingCole said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I expect that with further fines likely, the may elections which look very difficult for the party, and the Sue Gray report Boris greatest moment of peril will arrive in may and june

I hope that the party then takes decisive action and elects a new leader

Most of the candidates are corrupted by association with Johnson, though. Wallace has, after all, served in the Cabinet. Hunt scrapped our stock of PPE, or as good as.
To name but two.

You could apply the same logic to Starmer and his cabinet who all campaigned to elect Corbyn

Corbyn might be mistaken, but, AFAIK, he is not dishonest. Indeed, it's his honesty about his views which get's him into bother with the Right.

Big_G_NorthWales

Sky - CPI rose by 7%

I hope not - I think they mean CPI is 7%

TheScreamingEagles

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sky - CPI rose by 7%

I hope not - I think they mean CPI is 7%

Sky are right, CPI rose by 7% YoY.

Nigelb

The RCN writes to one of Johnson's backbench fans.
https://mobile.twitter.com/theRCN/status/1513942912840704008
Our General Secretary and Chief Executive @patcullen9 has written to @Mike_Fabricant over his comments today on nurses drinking in staff rooms during #COVID19.

Big_G_NorthWales

OldKingCole said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

OldKingCole said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I expect that with further fines likely, the may elections which look very difficult for the party, and the Sue Gray report Boris greatest moment of peril will arrive in may and june

I hope that the party then takes decisive action and elects a new leader

Most of the candidates are corrupted by association with Johnson, though. Wallace has, after all, served in the Cabinet. Hunt scrapped our stock of PPE, or as good as.
To name but two.

You could apply the same logic to Starmer and his cabinet who all campaigned to elect Corbyn

Corbyn might be mistaken, but, AFAIK, he is not dishonest. Indeed, it's his honesty about his views which get's him into bother with the Right.

Corbyn is in a different league of unacceptability and he is rejected by far more than the right, unless you think Starmer is on the right

Stuartinromford

Big_G_NorthWales said:

IshmaelZ said:

Betting on number of Conservative MPs to resign the whip today?

If a cabinet minister broke ranks and resigned, then that would be a big moment

Pretty much everyone who matters (except Priti Patel) has now done the two-handed salute thing;

https://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnson-rishi-sunak-parties-partygate-news-latest-live-updates-downing-street-fines-12578314?postid=3716251#liveblog-body

Cult leaders get away with all sorts of bad stuff, because they... lead cults.

Scott_xP

This morning we're all being told by senior members of the cabinet to "move on". What does that actually mean. The sitting Prime Minister broke the criminal law. Where exactly is it we're meant to be moving to.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1514132337776340999

Scott_xP

Rishi Sunak 'had to be talked out of resigning' as it would pile pressure on PM
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/rishi-sunak-told-dont-resign-26700120?s= https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/1514130270651355136/photo/1

Dura_Ace

JosiasJessop said:

Nigelb said:

Pentagon looks to vastly expand weapons for Ukraine

The Pentagon is looking to transfer Mi-17 helicopters, armored Humvees, and a range of other arms and equipment.
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1514105850775826433

A problem all friendly countries have is that their own stocks of weaponry are low - and they need to keep some back for their own use. Replenishment takes time.

Even the US has problems. They have given 7,000 Javelins to Ukraine. That is 1/3 of their inventory. Yet they only make 1,000 a year - and could, with time, get it up to 6,480 a year.

They have sent 2,000 Stingers to Ukraine. They do not make them for themselves any more, and it is believed that the 2,000 is one quarter of the US's remaining stocks. Lead time is 24 months.

There is only so much material that can be given. That does not really excuse Germany (and to a lesser extent France's) tardiness in providing anything.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/will-united-states-run-out-javelins-russia-runs-out-tanks

Part of the excellent performance by the Ukraine forces against armour is due to incredibly profligate expenditure of weapons; they are firing off hundreds of ATGMs every day.

No other armed forces that weren't a) in an existential struggle for survival and b) were getting them all gratis would expend them at that rate.

But you're correct to observe that's there's a limit and they are probably going to run NATO dry quite soon.

Nigelb

Presidents of 🇵🇱🇱🇹🇱🇻🇪🇪 on their way to #Kyiv to show support to #Ukraine and
@zelensky
https://mobile.twitter.com/JakubKumoch/status/1514098241201217542

FWIW, I noticed that all of those celebrating Boris' bravery in visiting Kyiv completely ignored the Lithuanian PM's visit to Borodianka when I posted it yesterday.

Fishing

Scott_xP said:

Fishing said:

I think getting rid of him over a triviality like this

The only PM in history confirmed to have broken the law.

I know the Brexit cult have no regard to the rule of law, but I hoped the Country as a whole still did.

Apparently not.

Nope.

If he'd done 25 in a 20 mph zone I wouldn't think he should go either.

It's a trivial law that never should have been there in the first place and isn't even a law any more. I broke it all the time when it was in force.

If he'd robbed a bank he definitely should.

Somewhere between those two is a line. Not sure exactly where.

mr-claypole

the brexit realignment seems to have put to bed for once and for all the idea that the tories are ruthless at changing leader

Big_G_NorthWales

I really think that once Sue Gray's report is published and any number of embarrassing photographs appear Boris will be gone one way or another