if they did do a small boat landing in this area, it might have had the benefit of tactical surprise and the advantage of advancing from a direction the enemy was not expecting. On the other hand it might just be the 'Advance' arrow is in slightly the wrong place, and therefor nothing of the sort.
I would have thought that a small boat operation gaining tactical surprise would be the sort of thing the normally slick Ukrainian social media operation would have a video of and boast about subsequent to the operation's completion. So much more likely to be a misplaced arrow on the map.
Did see a claim that the Ukrainians have pushed the Russians back to the border after taking Trostyanets.
These sorts of advances will become more difficult, because the remaining Russian forces will have had time to dig in and fortify their positions. I think this is why the emphasis on Zelensky's requests for weaponry has shifted to include Tanks as well as aircraft. They'll need tanks to break through Russian fortified positions, but they feel as though they are in a position where that is a relevant concern.
Anyone seen a TB2 video recently? I realised I didn't remember seeing one when I saw a video from a drone dropping munitions on a tank in a more improvised manner. Possible that they've all been shot down now.
On the other hand, the Russians will likely end up being short of food, ammunition, and fuel. The desire to defend until the death diminishes with discomfort and an inability to shoot back.
To an extent that argument can be overdone. If western estimates of Russian losses are at all accurate then a lot of Russian soldiers have been prepared to fight and die (or be seriously wounded). Fixed positions should also be easier to supply than mobile columns.
And fewer will be prepared to surrender as today's video of Russian PoWs being shot in the legs is circulated.
Firstly, that video needs to be investigated. It looks like it’s an Azov unit responsible so there is a good chance it’s real but it needs to be confirmed.
Re the a lot of Russian soldiers have been prepared to die argument, I’m not sure how right that is. Obviously, lots have died but it is also clear from multiple sources and the visuals that the morale isn’t high. There is only so much of that you can take.
I’d be amazed if far worse atrocities aren’t happening right across Ukraine
Imagine you’re fighting against the Russians in Mariupol. The Russians have invaded your country, they are indiscriminately slaughtering your women and children. They are using notoriously cruel Chechen mercenaries to go from house to house (known to torture and behead their enemies). The Russians are shelling schools and dropping white phosphorus on civilians. Everyone is starving and dogs are literally eating the corpses of your grandparents in the street (these are all verified neutral eye witness reports)
Then you capture some Russian soldiers. Alive. What do they expect to happen?
I’m sure it’s technically a ‘war crime’ but getting deliberately shot in the leg seems relatively trivial
If I was a Ukrainian fighter in Mariupol I’d be imagining much worse things I might do, given the chance
“Austria is a “veritable aircraft carrier” of covert Russian activity…Its BVT intel agency is regarded as being so compromised that for a time it was cut out of much … intelligence sharing…[its] defence ministry is “practically a department of the GRU”
Violence is more likely if Boris does not trigger Art 16 now.
Most Unionists of course oppose the NIP
So the logic is that Unionists already pissed off by lack of Article 16 will be even aggravated by the increase in support for Sinn Féin. So better trigger A16 to hopefully reduce the chances of them being violent?
The EU were warned if they focused solely on avoiding a hard border in Ireland to avoid a return to violence by the IRA they risked a return to violence by loyalist paramilitaries like the UVF if they insisted on demanding a border in the Irish Sea for a UK and EU trade deal rather than finding a technical solution as the UK government wanted.
The EU and Dublin ploughed on regardless and the UVF bomb threat last week is the result.
There is of course NO increase in support for SF, latest Stormont poll has SF on 23%, down on the 27% they got in 2017
Before @HYFUD gets jumped on for his comment, he has a point. The talks around the risks to the Good Friday agreement on the border talks all came from one direction ie the worry that the IRA would start off again. Very few mentioned the opposite side of the coin ie what would the Unionists do. You might find one or two articles on it but the vast majority of opinion - mainly pushed by people who didn’t want Brexit - was the risk of what the Republicans would do.
Which is true, but that is why it was so damn stupid of Johnson to plonk the border in the Irish Sea as the EU wanted rather than keep the whole UK in the single market until a solution was found.
Which would likely have seen the Brexit Party get 15 to 20% of the vote in 2019, no Brexit still and no Tory majority.
What Boris proposed instead was a technical solution
What Johnson proposed was giving in to all the EU's demands and hoping something would turn up later.
It hasn't, and that's now a problem without an obvious solution.
Which is why the EU's idea was such a stupid idea, and Johnson was stupider still to accept it.
The solution is likely either a technical solution following Boris triggering Article 16 or closer alignment to the SM and CU under a PM Starmer.
Violence is more likely if Boris does not trigger Art 16 now.
Most Unionists of course oppose the NIP
So the logic is that Unionists already pissed off by lack of Article 16 will be even aggravated by the increase in support for Sinn Féin. So better trigger A16 to hopefully reduce the chances of them being violent?
The EU were warned if they focused solely on avoiding a hard border in Ireland to avoid a return to violence by the IRA they risked a return to violence by loyalist paramilitaries like the UVF if they insisted on demanding a border in the Irish Sea for a UK and EU trade deal rather than finding a technical solution as the UK government wanted.
The EU and Dublin ploughed on regardless and the UVF bomb threat last week is the result.
There is of course NO increase in support for SF, latest Stormont poll has SF on 23%, down on the 27% they got in 2017
Before @HYFUD gets jumped on for his comment, he has a point. The talks around the risks to the Good Friday agreement on the border talks all came from one direction ie the worry that the IRA would start off again. Very few mentioned the opposite side of the coin ie what would the Unionists do. You might find one or two articles on it but the vast majority of opinion - mainly pushed by people who didn’t want Brexit - was the risk of what the Republicans would do.
Which is true, but that is why it was so damn stupid of Johnson to plonk the border in the Irish Sea as the EU wanted rather than keep the whole UK in the single market until a solution was found.
But there is no solution. You leave the EU, there will be a border. The only question is where it will be located.
Keeping the whole UK in the single market would, rightly have been interpreted as a fake Brexit. It would have meant continued free movement. It wouldn't have solved anything.
Violence is more likely if Boris does not trigger Art 16 now.
Most Unionists of course oppose the NIP
So the logic is that Unionists already pissed off by lack of Article 16 will be even aggravated by the increase in support for Sinn Féin. So better trigger A16 to hopefully reduce the chances of them being violent?
The EU were warned if they focused solely on avoiding a hard border in Ireland to avoid a return to violence by the IRA they risked a return to violence by loyalist paramilitaries like the UVF if they insisted on demanding a border in the Irish Sea for a UK and EU trade deal rather than finding a technical solution as the UK government wanted.
The EU and Dublin ploughed on regardless and the UVF bomb threat last week is the result.
There is of course NO increase in support for SF, latest Stormont poll has SF on 23%, down on the 27% they got in 2017
Before @HYFUD gets jumped on for his comment, he has a point. The talks around the risks to the Good Friday agreement on the border talks all came from one direction ie the worry that the IRA would start off again. Very few mentioned the opposite side of the coin ie what would the Unionists do. You might find one or two articles on it but the vast majority of opinion - mainly pushed by people who didn’t want Brexit - was the risk of what the Republicans would do.
Which is true, but that is why it was so damn stupid of Johnson to plonk the border in the Irish Sea as the EU wanted rather than keep the whole UK in the single market until a solution was found.
Which would likely have seen the Brexit Party get 15 to 20% of the vote in 2019, no Brexit still and no Tory majority.
What Boris proposed instead was a technical solution
What Johnson proposed was giving in to all the EU's demands and hoping something would turn up later.
It hasn't, and that's now a problem without an obvious solution.
Which is why the EU's idea was such a stupid idea, and Johnson was stupider still to accept it.
The solution is likely either a technical solution following Boris triggering Article 16 or closer alignment to the SM and CU under a PM Starmer.
Violence is more likely if Boris does not trigger Art 16 now.
Most Unionists of course oppose the NIP
So the logic is that Unionists already pissed off by lack of Article 16 will be even aggravated by the increase in support for Sinn Féin. So better trigger A16 to hopefully reduce the chances of them being violent?
The EU were warned if they focused solely on avoiding a hard border in Ireland to avoid a return to violence by the IRA they risked a return to violence by loyalist paramilitaries like the UVF if they insisted on demanding a border in the Irish Sea for a UK and EU trade deal rather than finding a technical solution as the UK government wanted.
The EU and Dublin ploughed on regardless and the UVF bomb threat last week is the result.
There is of course NO increase in support for SF, latest Stormont poll has SF on 23%, down on the 27% they got in 2017
Before @HYFUD gets jumped on for his comment, he has a point. The talks around the risks to the Good Friday agreement on the border talks all came from one direction ie the worry that the IRA would start off again. Very few mentioned the opposite side of the coin ie what would the Unionists do. You might find one or two articles on it but the vast majority of opinion - mainly pushed by people who didn’t want Brexit - was the risk of what the Republicans would do.
Yes and the UK government did its part by not going to No Deal and imposing a hard border in Ireland thus risking a return to IRA violence.
Shame the EU did not reciprocate
We discussed this earlier today. Leaving creates a border. That is what leaving means. That is unless you seriously think we should keep the benefits of remaining without the costs of remaining. You can try and soften the border by use of tech or putting it down the Irish sea, but there is always a border. The EU didn't impose it, we did by leaving.
Violence is more likely if Boris does not trigger Art 16 now.
Most Unionists of course oppose the NIP
So the logic is that Unionists already pissed off by lack of Article 16 will be even aggravated by the increase in support for Sinn Féin. So better trigger A16 to hopefully reduce the chances of them being violent?
The EU were warned if they focused solely on avoiding a hard border in Ireland to avoid a return to violence by the IRA they risked a return to violence by loyalist paramilitaries like the UVF if they insisted on demanding a border in the Irish Sea for a UK and EU trade deal rather than finding a technical solution as the UK government wanted.
The EU and Dublin ploughed on regardless and the UVF bomb threat last week is the result.
There is of course NO increase in support for SF, latest Stormont poll has SF on 23%, down on the 27% they got in 2017
Before @HYFUD gets jumped on for his comment, he has a point. The talks around the risks to the Good Friday agreement on the border talks all came from one direction ie the worry that the IRA would start off again. Very few mentioned the opposite side of the coin ie what would the Unionists do. You might find one or two articles on it but the vast majority of opinion - mainly pushed by people who didn’t want Brexit - was the risk of what the Republicans would do.
Which is true, but that is why it was so damn stupid of Johnson to plonk the border in the Irish Sea as the EU wanted rather than keep the whole UK in the single market until a solution was found.
Which would likely have seen the Brexit Party get 15 to 20% of the vote in 2019, no Brexit still and no Tory majority.
What Boris proposed instead was a technical solution
What Johnson proposed was giving in to all the EU's demands and hoping something would turn up later.
It hasn't, and that's now a problem without an obvious solution.
Which is why the EU's idea was such a stupid idea, and Johnson was stupider still to accept it.
The solution is likely either a technical solution following Boris triggering Article 16 or closer alignment to the SM and CU under a PM Starmer.
HYUFD, if the greatest minds of the UK Civil Service and Conservative and UNIONIST Party can't work out a technical solution, then you might like to consider the hypothesis that it doesn't exist.
It is now more than four years since the referendum vote ...
Violence is more likely if Boris does not trigger Art 16 now.
Most Unionists of course oppose the NIP
So the logic is that Unionists already pissed off by lack of Article 16 will be even aggravated by the increase in support for Sinn Féin. So better trigger A16 to hopefully reduce the chances of them being violent?
The EU were warned if they focused solely on avoiding a hard border in Ireland to avoid a return to violence by the IRA they risked a return to violence by loyalist paramilitaries like the UVF if they insisted on demanding a border in the Irish Sea for a UK and EU trade deal rather than finding a technical solution as the UK government wanted.
The EU and Dublin ploughed on regardless and the UVF bomb threat last week is the result.
There is of course NO increase in support for SF, latest Stormont poll has SF on 23%, down on the 27% they got in 2017
Before @HYFUD gets jumped on for his comment, he has a point. The talks around the risks to the Good Friday agreement on the border talks all came from one direction ie the worry that the IRA would start off again. Very few mentioned the opposite side of the coin ie what would the Unionists do. You might find one or two articles on it but the vast majority of opinion - mainly pushed by people who didn’t want Brexit - was the risk of what the Republicans would do.
Which is true, but that is why it was so damn stupid of Johnson to plonk the border in the Irish Sea as the EU wanted rather than keep the whole UK in the single market until a solution was found.
Which would likely have seen the Brexit Party get 15 to 20% of the vote in 2019, no Brexit still and no Tory majority.
What Boris proposed instead was a technical solution
What Johnson proposed was giving in to all the EU's demands and hoping something would turn up later.
It hasn't, and that's now a problem without an obvious solution.
Which is why the EU's idea was such a stupid idea, and Johnson was stupider still to accept it.
The solution is likely either a technical solution following Boris triggering Article 16 or closer alignment to the SM and CU under a PM Starmer.
HYUFD, if the greatest minds of the UK Civil Service and Conservative and UNIONIST Party can't work out a technical solution, then you might like to consider the hypothesis that it doesn't exist.
It is now more than four years since the referendum vote ...
TBF, I don't think there are too many great minds in either of those organisations right now. If Susan Acland-Hood were the sole entrant in an intelligence contest, she'd still come third.
Crushing victory for the SPD in Saarland with about 43% and 27.5% for the CDU. Linke vote below 3%. AfD and Greens appear to have scraped in with 5.5% but unclear for the FDP who are teetering on 5%.
if FDP does not clear that herdable, I think from the numbers that SPD could govern without a partner, which I think is unusual in Germany.
Doesn't happen very often (at least not nowadays) although the CDU won a majority in Saarland in 2004 during their early 2000s high watermark (plus the CSU obviously used to achieve that regularly). The last time SPD won a majority was in Hamburg in 2011 under Scholz and Rhineland-Palatinate before that in 2006.
Strengthens their presence in the Bundesrat. Where the Opposition wields a majority.
Used to be a Linke stronghold (relatively - 21%) because it's the home of ex-Finance minister Oskar Lafontaine, who defected from the SPD. However, he's been at loggerheads with the local leadership (not sure what about) and resigned spectaculartly a few days before the election. The SPD will have benefited. Meanwhile, the CDU have been quarrelling nationally too, enabling Scholz to be the Landesvater above such things in difficult times.
Looked it up - quite interesting. As I underatand it he condemned Putin's "brutal invasion" but opposed sanctions because they'd affect ordinary people: the party leadership was elitist in favouring them, he said. Irritated, the party didn't select him as a candidate, and he walked out. I know there are people who think the left is secretly pro-Putin ('cos he's Russian, so sort of like the Soviets?) but the vast majority even on the far left see the invasion as revolting and sanctions entirely justified.
In a curious way, Putin has managed to narrow the gap between the mainstream and most of the far left - which is perhaps a small side-bonus for democracy.
Violence is more likely if Boris does not trigger Art 16 now.
Most Unionists of course oppose the NIP
So the logic is that Unionists already pissed off by lack of Article 16 will be even aggravated by the increase in support for Sinn Féin. So better trigger A16 to hopefully reduce the chances of them being violent?
The EU were warned if they focused solely on avoiding a hard border in Ireland to avoid a return to violence by the IRA they risked a return to violence by loyalist paramilitaries like the UVF if they insisted on demanding a border in the Irish Sea for a UK and EU trade deal rather than finding a technical solution as the UK government wanted.
The EU and Dublin ploughed on regardless and the UVF bomb threat last week is the result.
There is of course NO increase in support for SF, latest Stormont poll has SF on 23%, down on the 27% they got in 2017
Before @HYFUD gets jumped on for his comment, he has a point. The talks around the risks to the Good Friday agreement on the border talks all came from one direction ie the worry that the IRA would start off again. Very few mentioned the opposite side of the coin ie what would the Unionists do. You might find one or two articles on it but the vast majority of opinion - mainly pushed by people who didn’t want Brexit - was the risk of what the Republicans would do.
Which is true, but that is why it was so damn stupid of Johnson to plonk the border in the Irish Sea as the EU wanted rather than keep the whole UK in the single market until a solution was found.
Which would likely have seen the Brexit Party get 15 to 20% of the vote in 2019, no Brexit still and no Tory majority.
What Boris proposed instead was a technical solution
What Johnson proposed was giving in to all the EU's demands and hoping something would turn up later.
It hasn't, and that's now a problem without an obvious solution.
Which is why the EU's idea was such a stupid idea, and Johnson was stupider still to accept it.
The solution is likely either a technical solution following Boris triggering Article 16 or closer alignment to the SM and CU under a PM Starmer.
HYUFD, if the greatest minds of the UK Civil Service and Conservative and UNIONIST Party can't work out a technical solution, then you might like to consider the hypothesis that it doesn't exist.
It is now more than four years since the referendum vote ...
TBF, I don't think there are too many great minds in either of those organisations right now.
They seem to know enough to pay their mates lots of money* to find technical solutions.
Crushing victory for the SPD in Saarland with about 43% and 27.5% for the CDU. Linke vote below 3%. AfD and Greens appear to have scraped in with 5.5% but unclear for the FDP who are teetering on 5%.
if FDP does not clear that herdable, I think from the numbers that SPD could govern without a partner, which I think is unusual in Germany.
Doesn't happen very often (at least not nowadays) although the CDU won a majority in Saarland in 2004 during their early 2000s high watermark (plus the CSU obviously used to achieve that regularly). The last time SPD won a majority was in Hamburg in 2011 under Scholz and Rhineland-Palatinate before that in 2006.
Strengthens their presence in the Bundesrat. Where the Opposition wields a majority.
Used to be a Linke stronghold (relatively - 21%) because it's the home of ex-Finance minister Oskar Lafontaine, who defected from the SPD. However, he's been at loggerheads with the local leadership (not sure what about) and resigned spectaculartly a few days before the election. The SPD will have benefited. Meanwhile, the CDU have been quarrelling nationally too, enabling Scholz to be the Landesvater above such things in difficult times.
Looked it up - quite interesting. As I underatand it he condemned Putin's "brutal invasion" but opposed sanctions because they'd affect ordinary people: the party leadership was elitist in favouring them, he said. Irritated, the party didn't select him as a candidate, and he walked out. I know there are people who think the left is secretly pro-Putin ('cos he's Russian, so sort of like the Soviets?) but the vast majority even on the far left see the invasion as revolting and sanctions entirely justified.
In a curious way, Putin has managed to narrow the gap between the mainstream and most of the far left - which is perhaps a small side-bonus for democracy.
Pro putinism is weird. I know a few who are at least sympathetic. One is quite far left. The other is an old Russophile brexiteer. Hard right?
“Austria is a “veritable aircraft carrier” of covert Russian activity…Its BVT intel agency is regarded as being so compromised that for a time it was cut out of much … intelligence sharing…[its] defence ministry is “practically a department of the GRU”
Some may recall a little while ago I mentioned my son in law had been called to the bedside of his gravelly ill mother
This morning she passed away peacefully after a brave fight over the last 12 months
When my son in law told his 13 year son of his Nain's passing he had just one word 'why'
The 'why' is a question every politician needs to consider, as it was directed at 'why' was I prevented from visiting her for 2 years and being able to tell her I love her
Violence is more likely if Boris does not trigger Art 16 now.
Most Unionists of course oppose the NIP
So the logic is that Unionists already pissed off by lack of Article 16 will be even aggravated by the increase in support for Sinn Féin. So better trigger A16 to hopefully reduce the chances of them being violent?
The EU were warned if they focused solely on avoiding a hard border in Ireland to avoid a return to violence by the IRA they risked a return to violence by loyalist paramilitaries like the UVF if they insisted on demanding a border in the Irish Sea for a UK and EU trade deal rather than finding a technical solution as the UK government wanted.
The EU and Dublin ploughed on regardless and the UVF bomb threat last week is the result.
There is of course NO increase in support for SF, latest Stormont poll has SF on 23%, down on the 27% they got in 2017
Before @HYFUD gets jumped on for his comment, he has a point. The talks around the risks to the Good Friday agreement on the border talks all came from one direction ie the worry that the IRA would start off again. Very few mentioned the opposite side of the coin ie what would the Unionists do. You might find one or two articles on it but the vast majority of opinion - mainly pushed by people who didn’t want Brexit - was the risk of what the Republicans would do.
Which is true, but that is why it was so damn stupid of Johnson to plonk the border in the Irish Sea as the EU wanted rather than keep the whole UK in the single market until a solution was found.
Which would likely have seen the Brexit Party get 15 to 20% of the vote in 2019, no Brexit still and no Tory majority.
What Boris proposed instead was a technical solution
What Johnson proposed was giving in to all the EU's demands and hoping something would turn up later.
It hasn't, and that's now a problem without an obvious solution.
Which is why the EU's idea was such a stupid idea, and Johnson was stupider still to accept it.
The solution is likely either a technical solution following Boris triggering Article 16 or closer alignment to the SM and CU under a PM Starmer.
I've exported and imported. I'm guessing you haven't. How would this technical solution work? I don't mean the details just the basics.
“Austria is a “veritable aircraft carrier” of covert Russian activity…Its BVT intel agency is regarded as being so compromised that for a time it was cut out of much … intelligence sharing…[its] defence ministry is “practically a department of the GRU”
Crushing victory for the SPD in Saarland with about 43% and 27.5% for the CDU. Linke vote below 3%. AfD and Greens appear to have scraped in with 5.5% but unclear for the FDP who are teetering on 5%.
if FDP does not clear that herdable, I think from the numbers that SPD could govern without a partner, which I think is unusual in Germany.
Doesn't happen very often (at least not nowadays) although the CDU won a majority in Saarland in 2004 during their early 2000s high watermark (plus the CSU obviously used to achieve that regularly). The last time SPD won a majority was in Hamburg in 2011 under Scholz and Rhineland-Palatinate before that in 2006.
Strengthens their presence in the Bundesrat. Where the Opposition wields a majority.
Used to be a Linke stronghold (relatively - 21%) because it's the home of ex-Finance minister Oskar Lafontaine, who defected from the SPD. However, he's been at loggerheads with the local leadership (not sure what about) and resigned spectaculartly a few days before the election. The SPD will have benefited. Meanwhile, the CDU have been quarrelling nationally too, enabling Scholz to be the Landesvater above such things in difficult times.
Looked it up - quite interesting. As I underatand it he condemned Putin's "brutal invasion" but opposed sanctions because they'd affect ordinary people: the party leadership was elitist in favouring them, he said. Irritated, the party didn't select him as a candidate, and he walked out. I know there are people who think the left is secretly pro-Putin ('cos he's Russian, so sort of like the Soviets?) but the vast majority even on the far left see the invasion as revolting and sanctions entirely justified.
In a curious way, Putin has managed to narrow the gap between the mainstream and most of the far left - which is perhaps a small side-bonus for democracy.
Die Linke has had internal divisions over NATO recently in the run up to last years election and is generally more pro NATO now. Certainly the group leader in the Bundestag is.
Violence is more likely if Boris does not trigger Art 16 now.
Most Unionists of course oppose the NIP
So the logic is that Unionists already pissed off by lack of Article 16 will be even aggravated by the increase in support for Sinn Féin. So better trigger A16 to hopefully reduce the chances of them being violent?
The EU were warned if they focused solely on avoiding a hard border in Ireland to avoid a return to violence by the IRA they risked a return to violence by loyalist paramilitaries like the UVF if they insisted on demanding a border in the Irish Sea for a UK and EU trade deal rather than finding a technical solution as the UK government wanted.
The EU and Dublin ploughed on regardless and the UVF bomb threat last week is the result.
There is of course NO increase in support for SF, latest Stormont poll has SF on 23%, down on the 27% they got in 2017
Before @HYFUD gets jumped on for his comment, he has a point. The talks around the risks to the Good Friday agreement on the border talks all came from one direction ie the worry that the IRA would start off again. Very few mentioned the opposite side of the coin ie what would the Unionists do. You might find one or two articles on it but the vast majority of opinion - mainly pushed by people who didn’t want Brexit - was the risk of what the Republicans would do.
Yes and the UK government did its part by not going to No Deal and imposing a hard border in Ireland thus risking a return to IRA violence.
Shame the EU did not reciprocate
We discussed this earlier today. Leaving creates a border. That is what leaving means. That is unless you seriously think we should keep the benefits of remaining without the costs of remaining. You can try and soften the border by use of tech or putting it down the Irish sea, but there is always a border. The EU didn't impose it, we did by leaving.
I’d say we were somewhat uniquely challenged though. Most nations in the eu could leave without the challenges we face in Ireland. The combination of the gfa and Brexit just seems to unsolvable, without massive compromise. Both sides tried to use this against the other in the process.
“Austria is a “veritable aircraft carrier” of covert Russian activity…Its BVT intel agency is regarded as being so compromised that for a time it was cut out of much … intelligence sharing…[its] defence ministry is “practically a department of the GRU”
Meet the Press @MeetThePress · 3h WATCH: Jeh Johnson says Pres. Biden’s ad lib on removing Russian Pres. Putin from power was “a statement of fact,” and “everyone in the Western world agrees.” #IfItsSunday
Crushing victory for the SPD in Saarland with about 43% and 27.5% for the CDU. Linke vote below 3%. AfD and Greens appear to have scraped in with 5.5% but unclear for the FDP who are teetering on 5%.
if FDP does not clear that herdable, I think from the numbers that SPD could govern without a partner, which I think is unusual in Germany.
Doesn't happen very often (at least not nowadays) although the CDU won a majority in Saarland in 2004 during their early 2000s high watermark (plus the CSU obviously used to achieve that regularly). The last time SPD won a majority was in Hamburg in 2011 under Scholz and Rhineland-Palatinate before that in 2006.
Strengthens their presence in the Bundesrat. Where the Opposition wields a majority.
Used to be a Linke stronghold (relatively - 21%) because it's the home of ex-Finance minister Oskar Lafontaine, who defected from the SPD. However, he's been at loggerheads with the local leadership (not sure what about) and resigned spectaculartly a few days before the election. The SPD will have benefited. Meanwhile, the CDU have been quarrelling nationally too, enabling Scholz to be the Landesvater above such things in difficult times.
Looked it up - quite interesting. As I underatand it he condemned Putin's "brutal invasion" but opposed sanctions because they'd affect ordinary people: the party leadership was elitist in favouring them, he said. Irritated, the party didn't select him as a candidate, and he walked out. I know there are people who think the left is secretly pro-Putin ('cos he's Russian, so sort of like the Soviets?) but the vast majority even on the far left see the invasion as revolting and sanctions entirely justified.
In a curious way, Putin has managed to narrow the gap between the mainstream and most of the far left - which is perhaps a small side-bonus for democracy.
Talking of the weird way the war divides people. Here’s a Fox News debate between Sean Hannity (arm the Ukrainians!) and ex congresswoman Gabbard (Trumpite?) who says appease Putin, and get the Ukrainians to surrender now
“Austria is a “veritable aircraft carrier” of covert Russian activity…Its BVT intel agency is regarded as being so compromised that for a time it was cut out of much … intelligence sharing…[its] defence ministry is “practically a department of the GRU”
Interesting similarity between Putinist contamination/hampering of security services in Austria & UK? Under auspices of Putinists at highest levels of goverment?
Violence is more likely if Boris does not trigger Art 16 now.
Most Unionists of course oppose the NIP
So the logic is that Unionists already pissed off by lack of Article 16 will be even aggravated by the increase in support for Sinn Féin. So better trigger A16 to hopefully reduce the chances of them being violent?
The EU were warned if they focused solely on avoiding a hard border in Ireland to avoid a return to violence by the IRA they risked a return to violence by loyalist paramilitaries like the UVF if they insisted on demanding a border in the Irish Sea for a UK and EU trade deal rather than finding a technical solution as the UK government wanted.
The EU and Dublin ploughed on regardless and the UVF bomb threat last week is the result.
There is of course NO increase in support for SF, latest Stormont poll has SF on 23%, down on the 27% they got in 2017
Before @HYFUD gets jumped on for his comment, he has a point. The talks around the risks to the Good Friday agreement on the border talks all came from one direction ie the worry that the IRA would start off again. Very few mentioned the opposite side of the coin ie what would the Unionists do. You might find one or two articles on it but the vast majority of opinion - mainly pushed by people who didn’t want Brexit - was the risk of what the Republicans would do.
Which is true, but that is why it was so damn stupid of Johnson to plonk the border in the Irish Sea as the EU wanted rather than keep the whole UK in the single market until a solution was found.
Which would likely have seen the Brexit Party get 15 to 20% of the vote in 2019, no Brexit still and no Tory majority.
What Boris proposed instead was a technical solution
What Johnson proposed was giving in to all the EU's demands and hoping something would turn up later.
It hasn't, and that's now a problem without an obvious solution.
Which is why the EU's idea was such a stupid idea, and Johnson was stupider still to accept it.
The solution is likely either a technical solution following Boris triggering Article 16 or closer alignment to the SM and CU under a PM Starmer.
However one change would be an unmitigated disaster for all concerned. The other could work rather well, however the downside is it would trigger JRM, Francois, Farage and Banks...what am I talking about, downside?
Violence is more likely if Boris does not trigger Art 16 now.
Most Unionists of course oppose the NIP
So the logic is that Unionists already pissed off by lack of Article 16 will be even aggravated by the increase in support for Sinn Féin. So better trigger A16 to hopefully reduce the chances of them being violent?
The EU were warned if they focused solely on avoiding a hard border in Ireland to avoid a return to violence by the IRA they risked a return to violence by loyalist paramilitaries like the UVF if they insisted on demanding a border in the Irish Sea for a UK and EU trade deal rather than finding a technical solution as the UK government wanted.
The EU and Dublin ploughed on regardless and the UVF bomb threat last week is the result.
There is of course NO increase in support for SF, latest Stormont poll has SF on 23%, down on the 27% they got in 2017
Before @HYFUD gets jumped on for his comment, he has a point. The talks around the risks to the Good Friday agreement on the border talks all came from one direction ie the worry that the IRA would start off again. Very few mentioned the opposite side of the coin ie what would the Unionists do. You might find one or two articles on it but the vast majority of opinion - mainly pushed by people who didn’t want Brexit - was the risk of what the Republicans would do.
Which is true, but that is why it was so damn stupid of Johnson to plonk the border in the Irish Sea as the EU wanted rather than keep the whole UK in the single market until a solution was found.
Which would likely have seen the Brexit Party get 15 to 20% of the vote in 2019, no Brexit still and no Tory majority.
What Boris proposed instead was a technical solution
What Johnson proposed was giving in to all the EU's demands and hoping something would turn up later.
It hasn't, and that's now a problem without an obvious solution.
Which is why the EU's idea was such a stupid idea, and Johnson was stupider still to accept it.
The solution is likely either a technical solution following Boris triggering Article 16 or closer alignment to the SM and CU under a PM Starmer.
However one change would be an unmitigated disaster for all concerned. The other could work rather well, however the downside is it would trigger JRM, Francois, Farage and Banks...what am I talking about, downside?
There is no downside in triggering the aforementioned whatsoever
Some may recall a little while ago I mentioned my son in law had been called to the bedside of his gravelly ill mother
This morning she passed away peacefully after a brave fight over the last 12 months
When my son in law told his 13 year son of his Nain's passing he had just one word 'why'
The 'why' is a question every politician needs to consider, as it was directed at 'why' was I prevented from visiting her for 2 years and being able to tell her I love her
Sorry to hear that @Big_G_NorthWales and my condolences to your family
Some may recall a little while ago I mentioned my son in law had been called to the bedside of his gravelly ill mother
This morning she passed away peacefully after a brave fight over the last 12 months
When my son in law told his 13 year son of his Nain's passing he had just one word 'why'
The 'why' is a question every politician needs to consider, as it was directed at 'why' was I prevented from visiting her for 2 years and being able to tell her I love her
I didn’t recall this particular of your family stories - I’m sorry for your son in law’s loss Big G but I’m really not sure why a 13 year old is so befuddled by a grandparent’s death.
It’s tragic internally for the family but grandparents die. Parents die - I have great friends whose parents died younger than they are now.
There are people around the world who miss parents and grandparents deaths because they cannot see them for covid, cost, prison, army service, geography.
The grandson could “tell her I love her”. Like many people by phone, letter, card, FaceTime.
It’s not ideal but it’s not tue worst situation humanity currently deals with - deaths in Ukraine where they will never even find tue bodies yet alone ask “why”. Just one example amongst millions from history.
I would have loved to have not worn a mask and gloves to be with my father for his last 8 months in hospital but I’m not sure what the “why” is about. There was a horrid disease that killed people. I think a 13 year old can grasp that.
Sorry if I sound cold but it’s all a bit weird casting out family tragedy on here to make a nebulous point.
Unless of course I’m completely wrong and you were constantly arguing against masks and restrictions and hugging vulnerable old relations in hospital/care homes in which case I take all the above back.
Theresa May’s solution for the Irish border was for the UK to stay in the customs union until a technical solution could be found.
That was destroyed, essentially by the Brexit hard gang, egged on by then king over the water, Boris Johnson.
Boris and the ERGers own the Irish problem, just as they do the decline of UK export performance.
(All of this was predicted by Remainers).
Of course if PM Starmer wins the next general election he will likely just reheat May's Deal, to go full back into the EEA plus free movement risks him losing the redwall and he obviously thinks Boris' deal is too hard Brexit.
Some may recall a little while ago I mentioned my son in law had been called to the bedside of his gravelly ill mother
This morning she passed away peacefully after a brave fight over the last 12 months
When my son in law told his 13 year son of his Nain's passing he had just one word 'why'
The 'why' is a question every politician needs to consider, as it was directed at 'why' was I prevented from visiting her for 2 years and being able to tell her I love her
I didn’t recall this particular of your family stories - I’m sorry for your son in law’s loss Big G but I’m really not sure why a 13 year old is so befuddled by a grandparent’s death.
It’s tragic internally for the family but grandparents die. Parents die - I have great friends whose parents died younger than they are now.
There are people around the world who miss parents and grandparents deaths because they cannot see them for covid, cost, prison, army service, geography.
The grandson could “tell her I love her”. Like many people by phone, letter, card, FaceTime.
It’s not ideal but it’s not tue worst situation humanity currently deals with - deaths in Ukraine where they will never even find tue bodies yet alone ask “why”. Just one example amongst millions from history.
I would have loved to have not worn a mask and gloves to be with my father for his last 8 months in hospital but I’m not sure what the “why” is about. There was a horrid disease that killed people. I think a 13 year old can grasp that.
Sorry if I sound cold but it’s all a bit weird casting out family tragedy on here to make a nebulous point.
Unless of course I’m completely wrong and you were constantly arguing against masks and restrictions and hugging vulnerable old relations in hospital/care homes in which case I take all the above back.
I would just say that for most of the two years she has been very ill and the idea a card or letter could take the place of holding her hand and expressing his love directly to her to be honest is very insensitive
Theresa May’s solution for the Irish border was for the UK to stay in the customs union until a technical solution could be found.
That was destroyed, essentially by the Brexit hard gang, egged on by then king over the water, Boris Johnson.
Boris and the ERGers own the Irish problem, just as they do the decline of UK export performance.
(All of this was predicted by Remainers).
Of course if PM Starmer wins the next general election he will likely just reheat May's Deal, to go full back into the EEA plus free movement risks him losing the redwall and he obviously thinks Boris' deal is too hard Brexit.
So May might have the last laugh yet
No. Dynamic alignment to the SM, particularly on food and agriculture gets rid of most of the hassle on the Irish Sea border and for that matter the Dover one. Not even 10% of Leavers would be bothered by that. Not least because EU regulations are by and large very good.
Some may recall a little while ago I mentioned my son in law had been called to the bedside of his gravelly ill mother
This morning she passed away peacefully after a brave fight over the last 12 months
When my son in law told his 13 year son of his Nain's passing he had just one word 'why'
The 'why' is a question every politician needs to consider, as it was directed at 'why' was I prevented from visiting her for 2 years and being able to tell her I love her
I didn’t recall this particular of your family stories - I’m sorry for your son in law’s loss Big G but I’m really not sure why a 13 year old is so befuddled by a grandparent’s death.
It’s tragic internally for the family but grandparents die. Parents die - I have great friends whose parents died younger than they are now.
There are people around the world who miss parents and grandparents deaths because they cannot see them for covid, cost, prison, army service, geography.
The grandson could “tell her I love her”. Like many people by phone, letter, card, FaceTime.
It’s not ideal but it’s not tue worst situation humanity currently deals with - deaths in Ukraine where they will never even find tue bodies yet alone ask “why”. Just one example amongst millions from history.
I would have loved to have not worn a mask and gloves to be with my father for his last 8 months in hospital but I’m not sure what the “why” is about. There was a horrid disease that killed people. I think a 13 year old can grasp that.
Sorry if I sound cold but it’s all a bit weird casting out family tragedy on here to make a nebulous point.
Unless of course I’m completely wrong and you were constantly arguing against masks and restrictions and hugging vulnerable old relations in hospital/care homes in which case I take all the above back.
I would just say that for most of the two years she has been very ill and the idea a card or letter could take the place of holding her hand and expressing his love directly to her to be honest is very insensitive
Perhaps why Johnsons partygate scandal will not be forgotten by those of us who followed the rules.
i went to see Phantom of the Open today which is very heartwarming and has a lot soul . The only downside is the references to the "British Open" when we all know its "The Open" . Probably to sell it over the pond no doubt
Theresa May’s solution for the Irish border was for the UK to stay in the customs union until a technical solution could be found.
That was destroyed, essentially by the Brexit hard gang, egged on by then king over the water, Boris Johnson.
Boris and the ERGers own the Irish problem, just as they do the decline of UK export performance.
(All of this was predicted by Remainers).
Of course if PM Starmer wins the next general election he will likely just reheat May's Deal, to go full back into the EEA plus free movement risks him losing the redwall and he obviously thinks Boris' deal is too hard Brexit.
So May might have the last laugh yet
No. Dynamic alignment to the SM, particularly on food and agriculture gets rid of most of the hassle on the Irish Sea border and for that matter the Dover one. Not even 10% of Leavers would be bothered by that. Not least because EU regulations are by and large very good.
They are for the most part, and we were involved in creating them. It’s surely only ideological purity that’s stopping such alignment now?
Theresa May’s solution for the Irish border was for the UK to stay in the customs union until a technical solution could be found.
That was destroyed, essentially by the Brexit hard gang, egged on by then king over the water, Boris Johnson.
Boris and the ERGers own the Irish problem, just as they do the decline of UK export performance.
(All of this was predicted by Remainers).
Of course if PM Starmer wins the next general election he will likely just reheat May's Deal, to go full back into the EEA plus free movement risks him losing the redwall and he obviously thinks Boris' deal is too hard Brexit.
So May might have the last laugh yet
It is not so much it is too hard but that it is a mess. Boris is not too dissimilar to yourself in the respect of saying we will just do things without having the foggiest idea how to do it or whether it is possible. I notice you haven't responded as to how the technical solution will work, presumably because you have never exported or imported anything so have no idea what is involved.
Some may recall a little while ago I mentioned my son in law had been called to the bedside of his gravelly ill mother
This morning she passed away peacefully after a brave fight over the last 12 months
When my son in law told his 13 year son of his Nain's passing he had just one word 'why'
The 'why' is a question every politician needs to consider, as it was directed at 'why' was I prevented from visiting her for 2 years and being able to tell her I love her
I didn’t recall this particular of your family stories - I’m sorry for your son in law’s loss Big G but I’m really not sure why a 13 year old is so befuddled by a grandparent’s death.
It’s tragic internally for the family but grandparents die. Parents die - I have great friends whose parents died younger than they are now.
There are people around the world who miss parents and grandparents deaths because they cannot see them for covid, cost, prison, army service, geography.
The grandson could “tell her I love her”. Like many people by phone, letter, card, FaceTime.
It’s not ideal but it’s not tue worst situation humanity currently deals with - deaths in Ukraine where they will never even find tue bodies yet alone ask “why”. Just one example amongst millions from history.
I would have loved to have not worn a mask and gloves to be with my father for his last 8 months in hospital but I’m not sure what the “why” is about. There was a horrid disease that killed people. I think a 13 year old can grasp that.
Sorry if I sound cold but it’s all a bit weird casting out family tragedy on here to make a nebulous point.
Unless of course I’m completely wrong and you were constantly arguing against masks and restrictions and hugging vulnerable old relations in hospital/care homes in which case I take all the above back.
I would just say that for most of the two years she has been very ill and the idea a card or letter could take the place of holding her hand and expressing his love directly to her to be honest is very insensitive
In an ideal world yes but thousands if not millions of people cannot see grandparents for years before they find out they have died. It’s sad but not abnormal.
So I’m assuming over the last two years you were against vulnerable people not receiving visitors in hospital or care homes? I had to work within very strict protocols to see my father before he died in hospital and the care home for the last few days he lived. My siblings too and his grandchildren.
My sister who lives in San Francisco managed to travel back and arrange to be tested left right and centre to see him right at the end.
I cannot tell you how much I wish I had been able to hold my father’s hand without a latex glove on and I was there holding his hand (in a latex glove and wearing a mask) on my own when he died but I also accept that these were extraordinary times and I know my father wouldn’t have felt any less of his grandchildren sending him a card to say they love him as he, despite his dementia on top of everything else that was killing him, got that it’s not a perfect world. And his multitude of grandchildren also understand that there was “covid”.
i went to see Phantom of the Open today which is very heartwarming and has a lot soul . The only downside is the references to the "British Open" when we all know its "The Open" . Probably to sell it over the pond no doubt
Is that about the hacker that kept turning up to the Open Qualifiers? The Ali Dia of the golf world.
Slightly off topic but I’m starting to think that Biden’s comments about the need for regime change in Russia, while unscripted, may turn out to be a work of unintentional genius. For several weeks, we’ve worried about what Putin may or may not do, and the risk of nuclear war etc. I suspect now, with these remarks, the shoe is on the other foot ie the Russians might be concerned about how far the US will go and / or whether Biden is nuts enough to go full on.
It is interesting to see an apparent consensus that the changes will be uniformly good for employees. If we consider the couple with 6 figure jobs, a big house (with a home office at the bottom of the garden) then it is quite possibly heaven. In those kind of jobs, the company may well be supporting them in terms of equipment and if not, they can afford an Aeron chair as a cheeky present to themselves.
If you listen, out there, there are already companies pushing more low wage jobs to home working. A friend of a family member works such a job - since the company uses VDI*, they are saying that you need to provide the computer at home to log into the VDI. No nice monitor or chair. You need to pay for all of that. There is no office to go to...
Other companies are providing a laptop. just that. So people are hunched over a 11 inch screen all day. In a number of cases, the office remains but on the basis of hot-desking. As in, come to the office and fight for whatever space you can find.
Companies are pushing the cost of equipment and office space onto the employees. I wonder, when people get back problems and RSI**, who will be liable?
*You log onto your work computer remotely, which is actually a cloud provided, rather abstract thing. **Liability for such things was why every high end white collar company bought Aeron chairs for the office. It makes them lawsuit proof on that front, so the insurance goes down,
Some may recall a little while ago I mentioned my son in law had been called to the bedside of his gravelly ill mother
This morning she passed away peacefully after a brave fight over the last 12 months
When my son in law told his 13 year son of his Nain's passing he had just one word 'why'
The 'why' is a question every politician needs to consider, as it was directed at 'why' was I prevented from visiting her for 2 years and being able to tell her I love her
I didn’t recall this particular of your family stories - I’m sorry for your son in law’s loss Big G but I’m really not sure why a 13 year old is so befuddled by a grandparent’s death.
It’s tragic internally for the family but grandparents die. Parents die - I have great friends whose parents died younger than they are now.
There are people around the world who miss parents and grandparents deaths because they cannot see them for covid, cost, prison, army service, geography.
The grandson could “tell her I love her”. Like many people by phone, letter, card, FaceTime.
It’s not ideal but it’s not tue worst situation humanity currently deals with - deaths in Ukraine where they will never even find tue bodies yet alone ask “why”. Just one example amongst millions from history.
I would have loved to have not worn a mask and gloves to be with my father for his last 8 months in hospital but I’m not sure what the “why” is about. There was a horrid disease that killed people. I think a 13 year old can grasp that.
Sorry if I sound cold but it’s all a bit weird casting out family tragedy on here to make a nebulous point.
Unless of course I’m completely wrong and you were constantly arguing against masks and restrictions and hugging vulnerable old relations in hospital/care homes in which case I take all the above back.
I would just say that for most of the two years she has been very ill and the idea a card or letter could take the place of holding her hand and expressing his love directly to her to be honest is very insensitive
In an ideal world yes but thousands if not millions of people cannot see grandparents for years before they find out they have died. It’s sad but not abnormal.
So I’m assuming over the last two years you were against vulnerable people not receiving visitors in hospital or care homes? I had to work within very strict protocols to see my father before he died in hospital and the care home for the last few days he lived. My siblings too and his grandchildren.
My sister who lives in San Francisco managed to travel back and arrange to be tested left right and centre to see him right at the end.
I cannot tell you how much I wish I had been able to hold my father’s hand without a latex glove on and I was there holding his hand (in a latex glove and wearing a mask) on my own when he died but I also accept that these were extraordinary times and I know my father wouldn’t have felt any less of his grandchildren sending him a card to say they love him as he, despite his dementia on top of everything else that was killing him, got that it’s not a perfect world. And his multitude of grandchildren also understand that there was “covid”.
It still does not answer a young person's feelings no matter how you want to analyse it
i went to see Phantom of the Open today which is very heartwarming and has a lot soul . The only downside is the references to the "British Open" when we all know its "The Open" . Probably to sell it over the pond no doubt
Not going on to my "to watch" list, strong vibe of someone thinking the utterly crap title was clever and funny, and then working on the film. Doesn't sound the most anarchist of entertainments either.
It is interesting to see an apparent consensus that the changes will be uniformly good for employees. If we consider the couple with 6 figure jobs, a big house (with a home office at the bottom of the garden) then it is quite possibly heaven. In those kind of jobs, the company may well be supporting them in terms of equipment and if not, they can afford an Aeron chair as a cheeky present to themselves.
If you listen, out there, there are already companies pushing more low wage jobs to home working. A friend of a family member works such a job - since the company uses VDI*, they are saying that you need to provide the computer at home to log into the VDI. No nice monitor or chair. You need to pay for all of that. There is no office to go to...
Other companies are providing a laptop. just that. So people are hunched over a 11 inch screen all day. In a number of cases, the office remains but on the basis of hot-desking. As in, come to the office and fight for whatever space you can find.
Companies are pushing the cost of equipment and office space onto the employees. I wonder, when people get back problems and RSI**, who will be liable?
*You log onto your work computer remotely, which is actually a cloud provided, rather abstract thing. **Liability for such things was why every high end white collar company bought Aeron chairs for the office. It makes them lawsuit proof on that front, so the insurance goes down,
The cost of commuting is going to become a big issue over the next few months as well. It then becomes a balance between domestic heating bills and fuel for travel.
i went to see Phantom of the Open today which is very heartwarming and has a lot soul . The only downside is the references to the "British Open" when we all know its "The Open" . Probably to sell it over the pond no doubt
Is that about the hacker that kept turning up to the Open Qualifiers? The Ali Dia of the golf world.
“Austria is a “veritable aircraft carrier” of covert Russian activity…Its BVT intel agency is regarded as being so compromised that for a time it was cut out of much … intelligence sharing…[its] defence ministry is “practically a department of the GRU”
Interesting similarity between Putinist contamination/hampering of security services in Austria & UK? Under auspices of Putinists at highest levels of goverment?
Austria has always been an issue post-WW2 because of the way it was set up - zones of influence, posts split between political parties etc. In the 20s and 30s, there was also a strong, and muscular, Communist / left movement
Some may recall a little while ago I mentioned my son in law had been called to the bedside of his gravelly ill mother
This morning she passed away peacefully after a brave fight over the last 12 months
When my son in law told his 13 year son of his Nain's passing he had just one word 'why'
The 'why' is a question every politician needs to consider, as it was directed at 'why' was I prevented from visiting her for 2 years and being able to tell her I love her
I didn’t recall this particular of your family stories - I’m sorry for your son in law’s loss Big G but I’m really not sure why a 13 year old is so befuddled by a grandparent’s death.
It’s tragic internally for the family but grandparents die. Parents die - I have great friends whose parents died younger than they are now.
There are people around the world who miss parents and grandparents deaths because they cannot see them for covid, cost, prison, army service, geography.
The grandson could “tell her I love her”. Like many people by phone, letter, card, FaceTime.
It’s not ideal but it’s not tue worst situation humanity currently deals with - deaths in Ukraine where they will never even find tue bodies yet alone ask “why”. Just one example amongst millions from history.
I would have loved to have not worn a mask and gloves to be with my father for his last 8 months in hospital but I’m not sure what the “why” is about. There was a horrid disease that killed people. I think a 13 year old can grasp that.
Sorry if I sound cold but it’s all a bit weird casting out family tragedy on here to make a nebulous point.
Unless of course I’m completely wrong and you were constantly arguing against masks and restrictions and hugging vulnerable old relations in hospital/care homes in which case I take all the above back.
I would just say that for most of the two years she has been very ill and the idea a card or letter could take the place of holding her hand and expressing his love directly to her to be honest is very insensitive
In an ideal world yes but thousands if not millions of people cannot see grandparents for years before they find out they have died. It’s sad but not abnormal.
So I’m assuming over the last two years you were against vulnerable people not receiving visitors in hospital or care homes? I had to work within very strict protocols to see my father before he died in hospital and the care home for the last few days he lived. My siblings too and his grandchildren.
My sister who lives in San Francisco managed to travel back and arrange to be tested left right and centre to see him right at the end.
I cannot tell you how much I wish I had been able to hold my father’s hand without a latex glove on and I was there holding his hand (in a latex glove and wearing a mask) on my own when he died but I also accept that these were extraordinary times and I know my father wouldn’t have felt any less of his grandchildren sending him a card to say they love him as he, despite his dementia on top of everything else that was killing him, got that it’s not a perfect world. And his multitude of grandchildren also understand that there was “covid”.
It still does not answer a young person's feelings no matter how you want to analyse it
I have often suspected myself of a mild case of psychopathy, but frankly at 13 I'd have paid good money not to have had to visit a dying grandparent in hospital. Prob just me tho.
Theresa May’s solution for the Irish border was for the UK to stay in the customs union until a technical solution could be found.
That was destroyed, essentially by the Brexit hard gang, egged on by then king over the water, Boris Johnson.
Boris and the ERGers own the Irish problem, just as they do the decline of UK export performance.
(All of this was predicted by Remainers).
Of course if PM Starmer wins the next general election he will likely just reheat May's Deal, to go full back into the EEA plus free movement risks him losing the redwall and he obviously thinks Boris' deal is too hard Brexit.
So May might have the last laugh yet
No. Dynamic alignment to the SM, particularly on food and agriculture gets rid of most of the hassle on the Irish Sea border and for that matter the Dover one. Not even 10% of Leavers would be bothered by that. Not least because EU regulations are by and large very good.
They are for the most part, and we were involved in creating them. It’s surely only ideological purity that’s stopping such alignment now?
Violence is more likely if Boris does not trigger Art 16 now.
Most Unionists of course oppose the NIP
So the logic is that Unionists already pissed off by lack of Article 16 will be even aggravated by the increase in support for Sinn Féin. So better trigger A16 to hopefully reduce the chances of them being violent?
The EU were warned if they focused solely on avoiding a hard border in Ireland to avoid a return to violence by the IRA they risked a return to violence by loyalist paramilitaries like the UVF if they insisted on demanding a border in the Irish Sea for a UK and EU trade deal rather than finding a technical solution as the UK government wanted.
The EU and Dublin ploughed on regardless and the UVF bomb threat last week is the result.
There is of course NO increase in support for SF, latest Stormont poll has SF on 23%, down on the 27% they got in 2017
I'm really confused now. What actually is the new rationale for calling Article 16?
FWIW I do think Johnson's version of the Northern Ireland Protocol is bad and was surprised at the time that he went for it. May's Deal, while crap, wasn't quite as catastrophically bad. I sort of understand his motivation: he prioritised divergence from the EU of part of the UK, ie England, over the integrity of the United Kingdom. May made the opposite choice. Utterly baffling is that the DUP supported Johnson over May. Whatever else you believe about the DUP you would think they could smell fake unionists at twenty paces. However it's now a treaty and we're stuck with it, unless UKG decides to breach the treaty, with all the implications.
Slightly off topic but I’m starting to think that Biden’s comments about the need for regime change in Russia, while unscripted, may turn out to be a work of unintentional genius. For several weeks, we’ve worried about what Putin may or may not do, and the risk of nuclear war etc. I suspect now, with these remarks, the shoe is on the other foot ie the Russians might be concerned about how far the US will go and / or whether Biden is nuts enough to go full on.
I was toying with the idea that Biden's gaffes are scripted and then insincerely retracted, but it is hard to reconcile this latest one with his giving the OK to Russia invading Ukr in a specific and limited way, as he did 6 weeks ago
Some may recall a little while ago I mentioned my son in law had been called to the bedside of his gravelly ill mother
This morning she passed away peacefully after a brave fight over the last 12 months
When my son in law told his 13 year son of his Nain's passing he had just one word 'why'
The 'why' is a question every politician needs to consider, as it was directed at 'why' was I prevented from visiting her for 2 years and being able to tell her I love her
I didn’t recall this particular of your family stories - I’m sorry for your son in law’s loss Big G but I’m really not sure why a 13 year old is so befuddled by a grandparent’s death.
It’s tragic internally for the family but grandparents die. Parents die - I have great friends whose parents died younger than they are now.
There are people around the world who miss parents and grandparents deaths because they cannot see them for covid, cost, prison, army service, geography.
The grandson could “tell her I love her”. Like many people by phone, letter, card, FaceTime.
It’s not ideal but it’s not tue worst situation humanity currently deals with - deaths in Ukraine where they will never even find tue bodies yet alone ask “why”. Just one example amongst millions from history.
I would have loved to have not worn a mask and gloves to be with my father for his last 8 months in hospital but I’m not sure what the “why” is about. There was a horrid disease that killed people. I think a 13 year old can grasp that.
Sorry if I sound cold but it’s all a bit weird casting out family tragedy on here to make a nebulous point.
Unless of course I’m completely wrong and you were constantly arguing against masks and restrictions and hugging vulnerable old relations in hospital/care homes in which case I take all the above back.
I would just say that for most of the two years she has been very ill and the idea a card or letter could take the place of holding her hand and expressing his love directly to her to be honest is very insensitive
In an ideal world yes but thousands if not millions of people cannot see grandparents for years before they find out they have died. It’s sad but not abnormal.
So I’m assuming over the last two years you were against vulnerable people not receiving visitors in hospital or care homes? I had to work within very strict protocols to see my father before he died in hospital and the care home for the last few days he lived. My siblings too and his grandchildren.
My sister who lives in San Francisco managed to travel back and arrange to be tested left right and centre to see him right at the end.
I cannot tell you how much I wish I had been able to hold my father’s hand without a latex glove on and I was there holding his hand (in a latex glove and wearing a mask) on my own when he died but I also accept that these were extraordinary times and I know my father wouldn’t have felt any less of his grandchildren sending him a card to say they love him as he, despite his dementia on top of everything else that was killing him, got that it’s not a perfect world. And his multitude of grandchildren also understand that there was “covid”.
It still does not answer a young person's feelings no matter how you want to analyse it
I have often suspected myself of a mild case of psychopathy, but frankly at 13 I'd have paid good money not to have had to visit a dying grandparent in hospital. Prob just me tho.
She has been dying for the last two weeks and it was a simple comment from a young teenager who felt that he could have seen his grandmother, especially when restrictions are being lifted
Some may recall a little while ago I mentioned my son in law had been called to the bedside of his gravelly ill mother
This morning she passed away peacefully after a brave fight over the last 12 months
When my son in law told his 13 year son of his Nain's passing he had just one word 'why'
The 'why' is a question every politician needs to consider, as it was directed at 'why' was I prevented from visiting her for 2 years and being able to tell her I love her
I didn’t recall this particular of your family stories - I’m sorry for your son in law’s loss Big G but I’m really not sure why a 13 year old is so befuddled by a grandparent’s death.
It’s tragic internally for the family but grandparents die. Parents die - I have great friends whose parents died younger than they are now.
There are people around the world who miss parents and grandparents deaths because they cannot see them for covid, cost, prison, army service, geography.
The grandson could “tell her I love her”. Like many people by phone, letter, card, FaceTime.
It’s not ideal but it’s not tue worst situation humanity currently deals with - deaths in Ukraine where they will never even find tue bodies yet alone ask “why”. Just one example amongst millions from history.
I would have loved to have not worn a mask and gloves to be with my father for his last 8 months in hospital but I’m not sure what the “why” is about. There was a horrid disease that killed people. I think a 13 year old can grasp that.
Sorry if I sound cold but it’s all a bit weird casting out family tragedy on here to make a nebulous point.
Unless of course I’m completely wrong and you were constantly arguing against masks and restrictions and hugging vulnerable old relations in hospital/care homes in which case I take all the above back.
I would just say that for most of the two years she has been very ill and the idea a card or letter could take the place of holding her hand and expressing his love directly to her to be honest is very insensitive
In an ideal world yes but thousands if not millions of people cannot see grandparents for years before they find out they have died. It’s sad but not abnormal.
So I’m assuming over the last two years you were against vulnerable people not receiving visitors in hospital or care homes? I had to work within very strict protocols to see my father before he died in hospital and the care home for the last few days he lived. My siblings too and his grandchildren.
My sister who lives in San Francisco managed to travel back and arrange to be tested left right and centre to see him right at the end.
I cannot tell you how much I wish I had been able to hold my father’s hand without a latex glove on and I was there holding his hand (in a latex glove and wearing a mask) on my own when he died but I also accept that these were extraordinary times and I know my father wouldn’t have felt any less of his grandchildren sending him a card to say they love him as he, despite his dementia on top of everything else that was killing him, got that it’s not a perfect world. And his multitude of grandchildren also understand that there was “covid”.
It still does not answer a young person's feelings no matter how you want to analyse it
Young people need to understand that old people sadly die. Turning it into a grief opera doesn’t really help them. They will also find that young people will die. Again it’s not “ideal” but if they can’t deal with an old sick person’s sad (but inevitable) death then they are going to struggle through life.
Rather than focussing on the shit side of their last few years maybe the family should be focussing on the good happy times and telling a young person to live life to the full as they don’t know how, when or “why” they will die.
Violence is more likely if Boris does not trigger Art 16 now.
Most Unionists of course oppose the NIP
So the logic is that Unionists already pissed off by lack of Article 16 will be even aggravated by the increase in support for Sinn Féin. So better trigger A16 to hopefully reduce the chances of them being violent?
The EU were warned if they focused solely on avoiding a hard border in Ireland to avoid a return to violence by the IRA they risked a return to violence by loyalist paramilitaries like the UVF if they insisted on demanding a border in the Irish Sea for a UK and EU trade deal rather than finding a technical solution as the UK government wanted.
The EU and Dublin ploughed on regardless and the UVF bomb threat last week is the result.
There is of course NO increase in support for SF, latest Stormont poll has SF on 23%, down on the 27% they got in 2017
i went to see Phantom of the Open today which is very heartwarming and has a lot soul . The only downside is the references to the "British Open" when we all know its "The Open" . Probably to sell it over the pond no doubt
Good to know. I had kind of dismissed it. Heartwarming films with soul are the kind I like.
Its so weird (and annoying) that you still have to wear masks everywhere in Scotland.
Its a little annoying but considering that we've just had another big spike I can understand it. It comes back to one little annoyance which is trying to prevent much bigger annoyances. The odd days off school that my son and my nephew have had where Covid staff shortages mean no teacher would have been far more annoying had they become longer because more staff have gone off sick.
I detest masks. But I can't say its stupid that I have to wear one when I fly to and from London this week.
Violence is more likely if Boris does not trigger Art 16 now.
Most Unionists of course oppose the NIP
So the logic is that Unionists already pissed off by lack of Article 16 will be even aggravated by the increase in support for Sinn Féin. So better trigger A16 to hopefully reduce the chances of them being violent?
The EU were warned if they focused solely on avoiding a hard border in Ireland to avoid a return to violence by the IRA they risked a return to violence by loyalist paramilitaries like the UVF if they insisted on demanding a border in the Irish Sea for a UK and EU trade deal rather than finding a technical solution as the UK government wanted.
The EU and Dublin ploughed on regardless and the UVF bomb threat last week is the result.
There is of course NO increase in support for SF, latest Stormont poll has SF on 23%, down on the 27% they got in 2017
Whenever I comment on Northern Ireland politics I get "off-topiced" by a particular Unionist poster, who accuses me of knowing nothing of how Northern Ireland works, so I now tend to avoid commentary. You know even less than I do, maybe you should follow my lead.
Some may recall a little while ago I mentioned my son in law had been called to the bedside of his gravelly ill mother
This morning she passed away peacefully after a brave fight over the last 12 months
When my son in law told his 13 year son of his Nain's passing he had just one word 'why'
The 'why' is a question every politician needs to consider, as it was directed at 'why' was I prevented from visiting her for 2 years and being able to tell her I love her
I didn’t recall this particular of your family stories - I’m sorry for your son in law’s loss Big G but I’m really not sure why a 13 year old is so befuddled by a grandparent’s death.
It’s tragic internally for the family but grandparents die. Parents die - I have great friends whose parents died younger than they are now.
There are people around the world who miss parents and grandparents deaths because they cannot see them for covid, cost, prison, army service, geography.
The grandson could “tell her I love her”. Like many people by phone, letter, card, FaceTime.
It’s not ideal but it’s not tue worst situation humanity currently deals with - deaths in Ukraine where they will never even find tue bodies yet alone ask “why”. Just one example amongst millions from history.
I would have loved to have not worn a mask and gloves to be with my father for his last 8 months in hospital but I’m not sure what the “why” is about. There was a horrid disease that killed people. I think a 13 year old can grasp that.
Sorry if I sound cold but it’s all a bit weird casting out family tragedy on here to make a nebulous point.
Unless of course I’m completely wrong and you were constantly arguing against masks and restrictions and hugging vulnerable old relations in hospital/care homes in which case I take all the above back.
I would just say that for most of the two years she has been very ill and the idea a card or letter could take the place of holding her hand and expressing his love directly to her to be honest is very insensitive
In an ideal world yes but thousands if not millions of people cannot see grandparents for years before they find out they have died. It’s sad but not abnormal.
So I’m assuming over the last two years you were against vulnerable people not receiving visitors in hospital or care homes? I had to work within very strict protocols to see my father before he died in hospital and the care home for the last few days he lived. My siblings too and his grandchildren.
My sister who lives in San Francisco managed to travel back and arrange to be tested left right and centre to see him right at the end.
I cannot tell you how much I wish I had been able to hold my father’s hand without a latex glove on and I was there holding his hand (in a latex glove and wearing a mask) on my own when he died but I also accept that these were extraordinary times and I know my father wouldn’t have felt any less of his grandchildren sending him a card to say they love him as he, despite his dementia on top of everything else that was killing him, got that it’s not a perfect world. And his multitude of grandchildren also understand that there was “covid”.
It still does not answer a young person's feelings no matter how you want to analyse it
Young people need to understand that old people sadly die. Turning it into a grief opera doesn’t really help them. They will also find that young people will die. Again it’s not “ideal” but if they can’t deal with an old sick person’s sad (but inevitable) death then they are going to struggle through life.
Rather than focussing on the shit side of their last few years maybe the family should be focussing on the good happy times and telling a young person to live life to the full as they don’t know how, when or “why” they will die.
To be honest I think you are wholly insensitive to a young person's loss, which must be a widespread feeling among young children and teenagers today
Its so weird (and annoying) that you still have to wear masks everywhere in Scotland.
Technically yes, though from my anecdotal experience it's declining swiftly anyway, certainly on trains and inside train stations it's probably 50% at best and I've never seen anyone anywhere pulled up about it, even earlier in the pandemic. In shops is a bit higher but it's certainly not what it once was.
It's time to get it onto a voluntary basis now, let the people who want to continue to and the people who don't can go back to normal, seeing as they're not really making much different any more as far as I can see.
I must say that 4/6 is pretty accurate as far as the NHS goes. It has been trashed and will take half my remaining working life to just get back to where we were in 2019, and that wasn't great.
General Practice is a mess. Patients are unhappy with phone consultations and rightly so. Some hospital specialities are as bad for telephone outpatients. It simply isn't good medical care.
There are major areas of staff burnout and shortages, notably in anaesthesia and operating staff who bore the brunt of the covid ICU and have left with that thousand yard stare in their eyes.
Filling the vacancies with reduced international recruitment (everywhere around the world is fishing in the same pond), and postgraduate training that has been trashed by covid redeployment is a slow and painful process. A lot of painstaking remedial training is needed, at exactly the same time that the senior staff are being pressured to cut waiting lists, meaning that we are sowing the seeds of further crises. Senior staff that are counting the days to early retirement too.
I do wonder if the frail old lady that is the NHS has had a fatal blow.
Although we were assured on here ad infinitum by @Philip_Thompson that A16 was a diplomatic masterstroke that would be exercised in due course, the problem is that A16 doesn’t in itself provide a solution.
Liz Truss does not want to go there. Neither does Boris, who I think recognises that he has pushed self-harming Brexitology to the limit.
I must say that 4/6 is pretty accurate as far as the NHS goes. It has been trashed and will take half my remaining working life to just get back to where we were in 2019, and that wasn't great.
General Practice is a mess. Patients are unhappy with phone consultations and rightly so. Some hospital specialities are as bad for telephone outpatients. It simply isn't good medical care.
There are major areas of staff burnout and shortages, notably in anaesthesia and operating staff who bore the brunt of the covid ICU and have left with that thousand yard stare in their eyes.
Filling the vacancies with reduced international recruitment (everywhere around the world is fishing in the same pond), and postgraduate training that has been trashed by covid redeployment is a slow and painful process. A lot of painstaking remedial training is needed, at exactly the same time that the senior staff are being pressured to cut waiting lists, meaning that we are sowing the seeds of further crises. Senior staff that are counting the days to early retirement too.
I do wonder if the frail old lady that is the NHS has had a fatal blow.
It's being so cheerful wot keeps me going.
The answer is simple Just abolish the Bloody NHS, its a national embarrassment of incredible incompetence, that terns incredible effort by skilled and dedicated staff, in to probably the most feeble healthcare in the developed world.
Slightly off topic but I’m starting to think that Biden’s comments about the need for regime change in Russia, while unscripted, may turn out to be a work of unintentional genius. For several weeks, we’ve worried about what Putin may or may not do, and the risk of nuclear war etc. I suspect now, with these remarks, the shoe is on the other foot ie the Russians might be concerned about how far the US will go and / or whether Biden is nuts enough to go full on.
Wrong but ultimately right, I think. Biden's remarks are unhelpful because (a) no-one is quite clear what he means in a situation where absolute clarity is required; (b) it makes the argument about who is the Russian president rather than the unacceptable actions of the Russian state.
He is ultimately right because Russia must be defeated, and Russians must believe they are defeated, to draw a line on unprovoked aggression against neighbouring countries and on systematic war crimes. In effect Russia cannot be defeated while Putin stays in power.
Theresa May’s solution for the Irish border was for the UK to stay in the customs union until a technical solution could be found.
That was destroyed, essentially by the Brexit hard gang, egged on by then king over the water, Boris Johnson.
Boris and the ERGers own the Irish problem, just as they do the decline of UK export performance.
(All of this was predicted by Remainers).
Do you think Theresa May imagined such a technical solution could exist, or do you think she thought politics would move on and we would stay permanently in the CU, or do you think she didn’t know?
Theresa May’s solution for the Irish border was for the UK to stay in the customs union until a technical solution could be found.
That was destroyed, essentially by the Brexit hard gang, egged on by then king over the water, Boris Johnson.
Boris and the ERGers own the Irish problem, just as they do the decline of UK export performance.
(All of this was predicted by Remainers).
Do you think Theresa May imagined such a technical solution could exist, or do you think she thought politics would move on and we would stay permanently in the CU, or do you think she didn’t know?
And, is the CU enough? Northern Ireland would have had to stay in the SM as now, too, surely?
Although we were assured on here ad infinitum by @Philip_Thompson that A16 was a diplomatic masterstroke that would be exercised in due course, the problem is that A16 doesn’t in itself provide a solution.
Liz Truss does not want to go there. Neither does Boris, who I think recognises that he has pushed self-harming Brexitology to the limit.
Even worse, that A16 was the end game. Just trigger A16 and all the problems go away.
There is no solution for the GFA that doesn't involve the UK remaining dynamically aligned to the SM. Was the case before the referendum, after we triggered A50, after we implemented the Oven-Ready Deal.
At one point in history, enslaved Black Africans arriving in the Caribbean via the Royal African Company were branded with the initials “DY”, marking them as the property of the then Duke of York . Royal profiting from slavery continued apace – the future William IV even personally argued for the continuation of the trade in the House of Commons in 1799, a move that, according to historian Brooke Newman, helped “delay” abolition for a few more years but “misjudged the mood of the nation” – and damaged the reputation of the royal family as a result.
It is interesting to see an apparent consensus that the changes will be uniformly good for employees. If we consider the couple with 6 figure jobs, a big house (with a home office at the bottom of the garden) then it is quite possibly heaven. In those kind of jobs, the company may well be supporting them in terms of equipment and if not, they can afford an Aeron chair as a cheeky present to themselves.
If you listen, out there, there are already companies pushing more low wage jobs to home working. A friend of a family member works such a job - since the company uses VDI*, they are saying that you need to provide the computer at home to log into the VDI. No nice monitor or chair. You need to pay for all of that. There is no office to go to...
Other companies are providing a laptop. just that. So people are hunched over a 11 inch screen all day. In a number of cases, the office remains but on the basis of hot-desking. As in, come to the office and fight for whatever space you can find.
Companies are pushing the cost of equipment and office space onto the employees. I wonder, when people get back problems and RSI**, who will be liable?
*You log onto your work computer remotely, which is actually a cloud provided, rather abstract thing. **Liability for such things was why every high end white collar company bought Aeron chairs for the office. It makes them lawsuit proof on that front, so the insurance goes down,
My work is nominally "hybrid".
In practice this means almost 99.9% WFH because essentially if you're not told to go in on any given day, and no-one else is going in, why would you go in to sit in the office and have the same remote Teams calls? Other than to get out of the house?
My work seemingly haven't quite realised yet that you actually need to create reasons to go into the office. But secretly I think they are wanting "hybrid" as such to fail quickly so that they can just make the job fully WFH apart from the bare minimum of onsite people needed, and then ditch all the expensive city offices PDQ.
The other thing I'm finding is that a considerable percentage of people with kids now just pretty much point blank refuse to come in to the office at all at any time, ever, "because they've got to do the school run" or whatever. I'm all for the increase in flexibility everyone's got but there is an element of this that is making me think "nah you're taking the piss a bit here".
If you basically view work as just a load of tasks an individual has to get through as quickly as possible, then WFH has been brilliant for that - without distractions and commuting etc. that can all get done faster.
If you view work as any sort of community with a social element or a collaborative element or a shared experience or for career progression or for networking with other teams you don't work with on a daily basis but need to speak to every now and then etc. then it's been an unmitigated disaster.
Theresa May’s solution for the Irish border was for the UK to stay in the customs union until a technical solution could be found.
That was destroyed, essentially by the Brexit hard gang, egged on by then king over the water, Boris Johnson.
Boris and the ERGers own the Irish problem, just as they do the decline of UK export performance.
(All of this was predicted by Remainers).
Of course if PM Starmer wins the next general election he will likely just reheat May's Deal, to go full back into the EEA plus free movement risks him losing the redwall and he obviously thinks Boris' deal is too hard Brexit.
So May might have the last laugh yet
It is not so much it is too hard but that it is a mess. Boris is not too dissimilar to yourself in the respect of saying we will just do things without having the foggiest idea how to do it or whether it is possible. I notice you haven't responded as to how the technical solution will work, presumably because you have never exported or imported anything so have no idea what is involved.
The difficulty is that post war European history has conspired to ensure no solution satisfactory to at least the English part of the UK. The two big Brexit issues boil down to one concrete and one abstract matter: FOM and the democratic deficit/UK autonomy respectively. So neither EU nor EEA/EFTA are any use as answers.
But being outside them creates technical problems, insoluble ones in NI, makes Scotsman cry and makes UK a unique anomaly in a world which has bigger fish to fry.
A reformed and variable geometry EU is the only and obvious solution. Cameron tried this and failed. There are no good answers left.
Slightly off topic but I’m starting to think that Biden’s comments about the need for regime change in Russia, while unscripted, may turn out to be a work of unintentional genius. For several weeks, we’ve worried about what Putin may or may not do, and the risk of nuclear war etc. I suspect now, with these remarks, the shoe is on the other foot ie the Russians might be concerned about how far the US will go and / or whether Biden is nuts enough to go full on.
I am critical of just about everything Biden has done for the last 50 years in Washington, but these comments, as you say, could tern out for the best. even if they may have been accidental.
Latest RofIreland poll from @REDCResearch for the @businessposthq - Sinn Fein still way ahead: Sinn Féin 33 Fine Gael 19 (-1 in four weeks) Fianna Fáil 16 (-1) Green Party 5 Social Democrats 5 (+1) Labour 5 (+1) PBP-Solidarity 3 Aontú 2 Independents 11 (Poll: March 18-23)
Sinn Fein now extremely consistent at 33% in the RoI polls now and this should easily get them 60+ seats in 2025.
Fine Gael also now dropping below 20% for the first time since 2005.
Better poll for the smaller parties than the Behaviour and attitudes poll due to a possibly different methodology.
The most interesting thing is the relative resilience of the Irish Greens despite the collapse of FF and FG. I don't know how this plays out seatswise though in the greater Dublin area.
Violence is more likely if Boris does not trigger Art 16 now.
Most Unionists of course oppose the NIP
So the logic is that Unionists already pissed off by lack of Article 16 will be even aggravated by the increase in support for Sinn Féin. So better trigger A16 to hopefully reduce the chances of them being violent?
The EU were warned if they focused solely on avoiding a hard border in Ireland to avoid a return to violence by the IRA they risked a return to violence by loyalist paramilitaries like the UVF if they insisted on demanding a border in the Irish Sea for a UK and EU trade deal rather than finding a technical solution as the UK government wanted.
The EU and Dublin ploughed on regardless and the UVF bomb threat last week is the result.
There is of course NO increase in support for SF, latest Stormont poll has SF on 23%, down on the 27% they got in 2017
Before @HYFUD gets jumped on for his comment, he has a point. The talks around the risks to the Good Friday agreement on the border talks all came from one direction ie the worry that the IRA would start off again. Very few mentioned the opposite side of the coin ie what would the Unionists do. You might find one or two articles on it but the vast majority of opinion - mainly pushed by people who didn’t want Brexit - was the risk of what the Republicans would do.
Which is true, but that is why it was so damn stupid of Johnson to plonk the border in the Irish Sea as the EU wanted rather than keep the whole UK in the single market until a solution was found.
Which would likely have seen the Brexit Party get 15 to 20% of the vote in 2019, no Brexit still and no Tory majority.
What Boris proposed instead was a technical solution
What Johnson proposed was giving in to all the EU's demands and hoping something would turn up later.
It hasn't, and that's now a problem without an obvious solution.
Which is why the EU's idea was such a stupid idea, and Johnson was stupider still to accept it.
The solution is likely either a technical solution following Boris triggering Article 16 or closer alignment to the SM and CU under a PM Starmer.
I've exported and imported. I'm guessing you haven't. How would this technical solution work? I don't mean the details just the basics.
Another possible Boris f*ck*p that is too far away for him to detect (ie >6 inches in front of his nose) is that we are now close enough to the next election that Brussels may decide to wait for the next PM on the NI agreement.
But more in our favour are the next Presidents of the EU Council, after we get shot of Macron and his obsessions, are Cz, Sw, Sp, Be, Hu, Po, Dk.
Theresa May’s solution for the Irish border was for the UK to stay in the customs union until a technical solution could be found.
That was destroyed, essentially by the Brexit hard gang, egged on by then king over the water, Boris Johnson.
Boris and the ERGers own the Irish problem, just as they do the decline of UK export performance.
(All of this was predicted by Remainers).
Do you think Theresa May imagined such a technical solution could exist, or do you think she thought politics would move on and we would stay permanently in the CU, or do you think she didn’t know?
I think she realised that the circle could not be squared today, and that the variable that needed to move was *time*.
Something that hardcore Brexiters seemed to struggled with, as reasonable models like “Norway for now” failed to pick up traction.
Brexiters preferred to eat their sovereignty without delay.
Theresa May’s solution for the Irish border was for the UK to stay in the customs union until a technical solution could be found.
That was destroyed, essentially by the Brexit hard gang, egged on by then king over the water, Boris Johnson.
Boris and the ERGers own the Irish problem, just as they do the decline of UK export performance.
(All of this was predicted by Remainers).
Of course if PM Starmer wins the next general election he will likely just reheat May's Deal, to go full back into the EEA plus free movement risks him losing the redwall and he obviously thinks Boris' deal is too hard Brexit.
So May might have the last laugh yet
It is not so much it is too hard but that it is a mess. Boris is not too dissimilar to yourself in the respect of saying we will just do things without having the foggiest idea how to do it or whether it is possible. I notice you haven't responded as to how the technical solution will work, presumably because you have never exported or imported anything so have no idea what is involved.
The difficulty is that post war European history has conspired to ensure no solution satisfactory to at least the English part of the UK. The two big Brexit issues boil down to one concrete and one abstract matter: FOM and the democratic deficit/UK autonomy respectively. So neither EU nor EEA/EFTA are any use as answers.
But being outside them creates technical problems, insoluble ones in NI, makes Scotsman cry and makes UK a unique anomaly in a world which has bigger fish to fry.
A reformed and variable geometry EU is the only and obvious solution. Cameron tried this and failed. There are no good answers left.
Cameron attempted to do it a few months. Such initiatives, like EU enlargement, and the single market itself, are the result of statecraft that takes years.
Violence is more likely if Boris does not trigger Art 16 now.
Most Unionists of course oppose the NIP
So the logic is that Unionists already pissed off by lack of Article 16 will be even aggravated by the increase in support for Sinn Féin. So better trigger A16 to hopefully reduce the chances of them being violent?
The EU were warned if they focused solely on avoiding a hard border in Ireland to avoid a return to violence by the IRA they risked a return to violence by loyalist paramilitaries like the UVF if they insisted on demanding a border in the Irish Sea for a UK and EU trade deal rather than finding a technical solution as the UK government wanted.
The EU and Dublin ploughed on regardless and the UVF bomb threat last week is the result.
There is of course NO increase in support for SF, latest Stormont poll has SF on 23%, down on the 27% they got in 2017
Whenever I comment on Northern Ireland politics I get "off-topiced" by a particular Unionist poster, who accuses me of knowing nothing of how Northern Ireland works, so I now tend to avoid commentary. You know even less than I do, maybe you should follow my lead.
You've only been "off topicked" 21 times in nearly 15k posts. I'm now going to off-topic everything you write just to get your ratio to something more respectable.
That's because I have only commented 21 times on NI!
Crushing victory for the SPD in Saarland with about 43% and 27.5% for the CDU. Linke vote below 3%. AfD and Greens appear to have scraped in with 5.5% but unclear for the FDP who are teetering on 5%.
if FDP does not clear that herdable, I think from the numbers that SPD could govern without a partner, which I think is unusual in Germany.
Doesn't happen very often (at least not nowadays) although the CDU won a majority in Saarland in 2004 during their early 2000s high watermark (plus the CSU obviously used to achieve that regularly). The last time SPD won a majority was in Hamburg in 2011 under Scholz and Rhineland-Palatinate before that in 2006.
Strengthens their presence in the Bundesrat. Where the Opposition wields a majority.
Used to be a Linke stronghold (relatively - 21%) because it's the home of ex-Finance minister Oskar Lafontaine, who defected from the SPD. However, he's been at loggerheads with the local leadership (not sure what about) and resigned spectaculartly a few days before the election. The SPD will have benefited. Meanwhile, the CDU have been quarrelling nationally too, enabling Scholz to be the Landesvater above such things in difficult times.
Looked it up - quite interesting. As I underatand it he condemned Putin's "brutal invasion" but opposed sanctions because they'd affect ordinary people: the party leadership was elitist in favouring them, he said. Irritated, the party didn't select him as a candidate, and he walked out. I know there are people who think the left is secretly pro-Putin ('cos he's Russian, so sort of like the Soviets?) but the vast majority even on the far left see the invasion as revolting and sanctions entirely justified.
In a curious way, Putin has managed to narrow the gap between the mainstream and most of the far left - which is perhaps a small side-bonus for democracy.
Pro putinism is weird. I know a few who are at least sympathetic. One is quite far left. The other is an old Russophile brexiteer. Hard right?
The third is a remainery lib dem!
You get three groups.
1. On the hard left, people who take the view that my enemy's enemy is my friend. The Great Satan is the USA, and anyone who opposes the USA and NATO, must have some good about them.
2. On the hard right, people who think Putin is defending white Christian civilisation against homosexuals, transexuals, and immigrants.
3. The "realists" who can't see any reason not to allow Russia to exercise de facto sovereignty of the former USSR.
i went to see Phantom of the Open today which is very heartwarming and has a lot soul . The only downside is the references to the "British Open" when we all know its "The Open" . Probably to sell it over the pond no doubt
Not going on to my "to watch" list, strong vibe of someone thinking the utterly crap title was clever and funny, and then working on the film. Doesn't sound the most anarchist of entertainments either.
right ok then! The joke is that he was not (by far) the worst golfer in open history but that he kept going back and entering under different personas (including a Frenchman , yank etc ) - hence the title name (and a bit anarchist!).The title of the film is not made up btw but what he was actually called by the press at the time -its a true story - 91% on Rotten Tomatoes!
Theresa May’s solution for the Irish border was for the UK to stay in the customs union until a technical solution could be found.
That was destroyed, essentially by the Brexit hard gang, egged on by then king over the water, Boris Johnson.
Boris and the ERGers own the Irish problem, just as they do the decline of UK export performance.
(All of this was predicted by Remainers).
Do you think Theresa May imagined such a technical solution could exist, or do you think she thought politics would move on and we would stay permanently in the CU, or do you think she didn’t know?
I think she realised that the circle could not be squared today, and that the variable that needed to move was *time*.
Something that hardcore Brexiters seemed to struggled with, as reasonable models like “Norway for now” failed to pick up traction.
Brexiters preferred to eat their sovereignty without delay.
I suppose the suspicion was that Norway for Now would become Norway Forever, the moment having passed. This need not have been the remainer intention (though I suspect it was), but it would have become political reality nevertheless.
Theresa May’s solution for the Irish border was for the UK to stay in the customs union until a technical solution could be found.
That was destroyed, essentially by the Brexit hard gang, egged on by then king over the water, Boris Johnson.
Boris and the ERGers own the Irish problem, just as they do the decline of UK export performance.
(All of this was predicted by Remainers).
Do you think Theresa May imagined such a technical solution could exist, or do you think she thought politics would move on and we would stay permanently in the CU, or do you think she didn’t know?
I think she realised that the circle could not be squared today, and that the variable that needed to move was *time*.
Something that hardcore Brexiters seemed to struggled with, as reasonable models like “Norway for now” failed to pick up traction.
Brexiters preferred to eat their sovereignty without delay.
I think for the hard core there was always the fear that the victory would be snatched from them at the end. That Brexit would be at best partial, and thus perhaps easier to reverse. Not totally an unjustified belief either. Just a shame that the nations interests actually need us to be closer aligned to make trade as easy as possible.
Slightly off topic but I’m starting to think that Biden’s comments about the need for regime change in Russia, while unscripted, may turn out to be a work of unintentional genius. For several weeks, we’ve worried about what Putin may or may not do, and the risk of nuclear war etc. I suspect now, with these remarks, the shoe is on the other foot ie the Russians might be concerned about how far the US will go and / or whether Biden is nuts enough to go full on.
Wrong but ultimately right, I think. Biden's remarks are unhelpful because (a) no-one is quite clear what he means in a situation where absolute clarity is required; (b) it makes the argument about who is the Russian president rather than the unacceptable actions of the Russian state.
He is ultimately right because Russia must be defeated, and Russians must believe they are defeated, to draw a line on unprovoked aggression against neighbouring countries and on systematic war crimes. In effect Russia cannot be defeated while Putin stays in power.
Russia doesn't need to be defeated. It just needs democracy.
Fair enough. By defeated, I mean Russians realise their actions in Ukraine come with such a big cost they will choose never to do the same again. Russia doesn't have to be a democracy to come to that conclusion, although I would like it to be so. Actually I love Russia. It doesn't have to be like this.
Slightly off topic but I’m starting to think that Biden’s comments about the need for regime change in Russia, while unscripted, may turn out to be a work of unintentional genius. For several weeks, we’ve worried about what Putin may or may not do, and the risk of nuclear war etc. I suspect now, with these remarks, the shoe is on the other foot ie the Russians might be concerned about how far the US will go and / or whether Biden is nuts enough to go full on.
Wrong but ultimately right, I think. Biden's remarks are unhelpful because (a) no-one is quite clear what he means in a situation where absolute clarity is required; (b) it makes the argument about who is the Russian president rather than the unacceptable actions of the Russian state.
He is ultimately right because Russia must be defeated, and Russians must believe they are defeated, to draw a line on unprovoked aggression against neighbouring countries and on systematic war crimes. In effect Russia cannot be defeated while Putin stays in power.
Russia doesn't need to be defeated. It just needs democracy.
In this instance, the second notion only happens after the first.
Crushing victory for the SPD in Saarland with about 43% and 27.5% for the CDU. Linke vote below 3%. AfD and Greens appear to have scraped in with 5.5% but unclear for the FDP who are teetering on 5%.
if FDP does not clear that herdable, I think from the numbers that SPD could govern without a partner, which I think is unusual in Germany.
Doesn't happen very often (at least not nowadays) although the CDU won a majority in Saarland in 2004 during their early 2000s high watermark (plus the CSU obviously used to achieve that regularly). The last time SPD won a majority was in Hamburg in 2011 under Scholz and Rhineland-Palatinate before that in 2006.
Strengthens their presence in the Bundesrat. Where the Opposition wields a majority.
Used to be a Linke stronghold (relatively - 21%) because it's the home of ex-Finance minister Oskar Lafontaine, who defected from the SPD. However, he's been at loggerheads with the local leadership (not sure what about) and resigned spectaculartly a few days before the election. The SPD will have benefited. Meanwhile, the CDU have been quarrelling nationally too, enabling Scholz to be the Landesvater above such things in difficult times.
Looked it up - quite interesting. As I underatand it he condemned Putin's "brutal invasion" but opposed sanctions because they'd affect ordinary people: the party leadership was elitist in favouring them, he said. Irritated, the party didn't select him as a candidate, and he walked out. I know there are people who think the left is secretly pro-Putin ('cos he's Russian, so sort of like the Soviets?) but the vast majority even on the far left see the invasion as revolting and sanctions entirely justified.
In a curious way, Putin has managed to narrow the gap between the mainstream and most of the far left - which is perhaps a small side-bonus for democracy.
Pro putinism is weird. I know a few who are at least sympathetic. One is quite far left. The other is an old Russophile brexiteer. Hard right?
The third is a remainery lib dem!
You get three groups.
1. On the hard left, people who take the view that my enemy's enemy is my friend. The Great Satan is the USA, and anyone who opposes the USA and NATO, must have some good about them.
2. On the hard right, people who think Putin is defending white Christian civilisation against homosexuals, transexuals, and immigrants.
3. The "realists" who can't see any reason not to allow Russia to exercise de facto sovereignty of the former USSR.
I see a fair bit of (3) amongst centrist Remainer friends of mine.
Essentially, their argument is similar to Chamberlain's.
General Practice is a mess. Patients are unhappy with phone consultations and rightly so. Some hospital specialities are as bad for telephone outpatients. It simply isn't good medical care.
I'm on my fourth different antidepressant since September. Was prescribed the first following in person GP appointments in Ireland. The subsequent three changes of medication all following phone consultations with various doctors (four different doctors, I think, I don't even remember any of their names) at my GP practice in Scotland. No-one in the NHS has seen me in person even once.
Most of my prior contact with GPs with respect to previous episodes of depression has been lacklustre at best, so I've not considered it much loss, and fortunately I can afford to pay for private psychotherapy, but it's not much good really is it?
Lots of people at risk of falling through the gaps.
It is interesting to see an apparent consensus that the changes will be uniformly good for employees. If we consider the couple with 6 figure jobs, a big house (with a home office at the bottom of the garden) then it is quite possibly heaven. In those kind of jobs, the company may well be supporting them in terms of equipment and if not, they can afford an Aeron chair as a cheeky present to themselves.
If you listen, out there, there are already companies pushing more low wage jobs to home working. A friend of a family member works such a job - since the company uses VDI*, they are saying that you need to provide the computer at home to log into the VDI. No nice monitor or chair. You need to pay for all of that. There is no office to go to...
Other companies are providing a laptop. just that. So people are hunched over a 11 inch screen all day. In a number of cases, the office remains but on the basis of hot-desking. As in, come to the office and fight for whatever space you can find.
Companies are pushing the cost of equipment and office space onto the employees. I wonder, when people get back problems and RSI**, who will be liable?
*You log onto your work computer remotely, which is actually a cloud provided, rather abstract thing. **Liability for such things was why every high end white collar company bought Aeron chairs for the office. It makes them lawsuit proof on that front, so the insurance goes down,
My work is nominally "hybrid".
In practice this means almost 99.9% WFH because essentially if you're not told to go in on any given day, and no-one else is going in, why would you go in to sit in the office and have the same remote Teams calls? Other than to get out of the house?
My work seemingly haven't quite realised yet that you actually need to create reasons to go into the office. But secretly I think they are wanting "hybrid" as such to fail quickly so that they can just make the job fully WFH apart from the bare minimum of onsite people needed, and then ditch all the expensive city offices PDQ.
The other thing I'm finding is that a considerable percentage of people with kids now just pretty much point blank refuse to come in to the office at all at any time, ever, "because they've got to do the school run" or whatever. I'm all for the increase in flexibility everyone's got but there is an element of this that is making me think "nah you're taking the piss a bit here".
If you basically view work as just a load of tasks an individual has to get through as quickly as possible, then WFH has been brilliant for that - without distractions and commuting etc. that can all get done faster.
If you view work as any sort of community with a social element or a collaborative element or a shared experience or for career progression or for networking with other teams you don't work with on a daily basis but need to speak to every now and then etc. then it's been an unmitigated disaster.
Most work is both of those - the question is the proportion.
I started a job a bit before the pandemic - we had a year or so to become a proper team. We all started in the new team together, so there was no company back history/politics there. We have worked continuously on the same, massive project ever since.
So we had all the dynamics and interactions pre-loaded, as it were. I'm not sure that changing teams or what we do will anywhere near as easy.
Hammering through individual tasks is one thing. Collaborative effort does drop off when WFH. I make an especial effort with the inter team stuff you mention - set up video calls, get to know people. As a result I've become the team go-to guy for talking to the other teams. I'm not sure this is the right direction to go in.
Latest RofIreland poll from @REDCResearch for the @businessposthq - Sinn Fein still way ahead: Sinn Féin 33 Fine Gael 19 (-1 in four weeks) Fianna Fáil 16 (-1) Green Party 5 Social Democrats 5 (+1) Labour 5 (+1) PBP-Solidarity 3 Aontú 2 Independents 11 (Poll: March 18-23)
Sinn Fein now extremely consistent at 33% in the RoI polls now and this should easily get them 60+ seats in 2025.
Fine Gael also now dropping below 20% for the first time since 2005.
Better poll for the smaller parties than the Behaviour and attitudes poll due to a possibly different methodology.
The most interesting thing is the relative resilience of the Irish Greens despite the collapse of FF and FG. I don't know how this plays out seatswise though in the greater Dublin area.
A Sinn Fein government chills my blood but it looks like it could well happen.
Goodness knows why. It seems to be an Irish version of Corbynism except it's got even more traction.
Latest RofIreland poll from @REDCResearch for the @businessposthq - Sinn Fein still way ahead: Sinn Féin 33 Fine Gael 19 (-1 in four weeks) Fianna Fáil 16 (-1) Green Party 5 Social Democrats 5 (+1) Labour 5 (+1) PBP-Solidarity 3 Aontú 2 Independents 11 (Poll: March 18-23)
Sinn Fein now extremely consistent at 33% in the RoI polls now and this should easily get them 60+ seats in 2025.
Fine Gael also now dropping below 20% for the first time since 2005.
Better poll for the smaller parties than the Behaviour and attitudes poll due to a possibly different methodology.
The most interesting thing is the relative resilience of the Irish Greens despite the collapse of FF and FG. I don't know how this plays out seatswise though in the greater Dublin area.
A Sinn Fein government chills my blood but it looks like it could well happen.
Goodness knows why. It seems to be an Irish version of Corbynism except it's got even more traction.
33% for SF is just 1% more than Corbyn Labour got in 2019 and 7% less than Corbyn Labour got here in 2017 for perspective.
Do not forget either the combined score for the FF and FG government is 35% ie 2% more than SF. Ireland is also STV PR not FPTP
Crushing victory for the SPD in Saarland with about 43% and 27.5% for the CDU. Linke vote below 3%. AfD and Greens appear to have scraped in with 5.5% but unclear for the FDP who are teetering on 5%.
if FDP does not clear that herdable, I think from the numbers that SPD could govern without a partner, which I think is unusual in Germany.
Doesn't happen very often (at least not nowadays) although the CDU won a majority in Saarland in 2004 during their early 2000s high watermark (plus the CSU obviously used to achieve that regularly). The last time SPD won a majority was in Hamburg in 2011 under Scholz and Rhineland-Palatinate before that in 2006.
Strengthens their presence in the Bundesrat. Where the Opposition wields a majority.
Used to be a Linke stronghold (relatively - 21%) because it's the home of ex-Finance minister Oskar Lafontaine, who defected from the SPD. However, he's been at loggerheads with the local leadership (not sure what about) and resigned spectaculartly a few days before the election. The SPD will have benefited. Meanwhile, the CDU have been quarrelling nationally too, enabling Scholz to be the Landesvater above such things in difficult times.
Looked it up - quite interesting. As I underatand it he condemned Putin's "brutal invasion" but opposed sanctions because they'd affect ordinary people: the party leadership was elitist in favouring them, he said. Irritated, the party didn't select him as a candidate, and he walked out. I know there are people who think the left is secretly pro-Putin ('cos he's Russian, so sort of like the Soviets?) but the vast majority even on the far left see the invasion as revolting and sanctions entirely justified.
In a curious way, Putin has managed to narrow the gap between the mainstream and most of the far left - which is perhaps a small side-bonus for democracy.
Pro putinism is weird. I know a few who are at least sympathetic. One is quite far left. The other is an old Russophile brexiteer. Hard right?
The third is a remainery lib dem!
You get three groups.
1. On the hard left, people who take the view that my enemy's enemy is my friend. The Great Satan is the USA, and anyone who opposes the USA and NATO, must have some good about them.
2. On the hard right, people who think Putin is defending white Christian civilisation against homosexuals, transexuals, and immigrants.
3. The "realists" who can't see any reason not to allow Russia to exercise de facto sovereignty of the former USSR.
I see a fair bit of (3) amongst centrist Remainer friends of mine.
Essentially, their argument is similar to Chamberlain's.
I've encountered a few of those.
I caused a moment on the weekend, when the discussion among a couple of people turned to what the end of the war should lookalike. They were all about the compromises that Ukraine should make.
I suggested that I would be OK with whatever version of the China/Ukraine border Zelensky was OK with.
if they did do a small boat landing in this area, it might have had the benefit of tactical surprise and the advantage of advancing from a direction the enemy was not expecting. On the other hand it might just be the 'Advance' arrow is in slightly the wrong place, and therefor nothing of the sort.
I would have thought that a small boat operation gaining tactical surprise would be the sort of thing the normally slick Ukrainian social media operation would have a video of and boast about subsequent to the operation's completion. So much more likely to be a misplaced arrow on the map.
Did see a claim that the Ukrainians have pushed the Russians back to the border after taking Trostyanets.
These sorts of advances will become more difficult, because the remaining Russian forces will have had time to dig in and fortify their positions. I think this is why the emphasis on Zelensky's requests for weaponry has shifted to include Tanks as well as aircraft. They'll need tanks to break through Russian fortified positions, but they feel as though they are in a position where that is a relevant concern.
Anyone seen a TB2 video recently? I realised I didn't remember seeing one when I saw a video from a drone dropping munitions on a tank in a more improvised manner. Possible that they've all been shot down now.
On the other hand, the Russians will likely end up being short of food, ammunition, and fuel. The desire to defend until the death diminishes with discomfort and an inability to shoot back.
To an extent that argument can be overdone. If western estimates of Russian losses are at all accurate then a lot of Russian soldiers have been prepared to fight and die (or be seriously wounded). Fixed positions should also be easier to supply than mobile columns.
And fewer will be prepared to surrender as today's video of Russian PoWs being shot in the legs is circulated.
Firstly, that video needs to be investigated. It looks like it’s an Azov unit responsible so there is a good chance it’s real but it needs to be confirmed.
Re the a lot of Russian soldiers have been prepared to die argument, I’m not sure how right that is. Obviously, lots have died but it is also clear from multiple sources and the visuals that the morale isn’t high. There is only so much of that you can take.
I’d be amazed if far worse atrocities aren’t happening right across Ukraine
Imagine you’re fighting against the Russians in Mariupol. The Russians have invaded your country, they are indiscriminately slaughtering your women and children. They are using notoriously cruel Chechen mercenaries to go from house to house (known to torture and behead their enemies). The Russians are shelling schools and dropping white phosphorus on civilians. Everyone is starving and dogs are literally eating the corpses of your grandparents in the street (these are all verified neutral eye witness reports)
Then you capture some Russian soldiers. Alive. What do they expect to happen?
I’m sure it’s technically a ‘war crime’ but getting deliberately shot in the leg seems relatively trivial
If I was a Ukrainian fighter in Mariupol I’d be imagining much worse things I might do, given the chance
I think you know you're on a sticky wicket argument-wise when you shit this out - 'sure it's techinically a 'war crime''.
General Practice is a mess. Patients are unhappy with phone consultations and rightly so. Some hospital specialities are as bad for telephone outpatients. It simply isn't good medical care.
I'm on my fourth different antidepressant since September. Was prescribed the first following in person GP appointments in Ireland. The subsequent three changes of medication all following phone consultations with various doctors (four different doctors, I think, I don't even remember any of their names) at my GP practice in Scotland. No-one in the NHS has seen me in person even once.
Most of my prior contact with GPs with respect to previous episodes of depression has been lacklustre at best, so I've not considered it much loss, and fortunately I can afford to pay for private psychotherapy, but it's not much good really is it?
Lots of people at risk of falling through the gaps.
For some people, some of the time, phone/internet access to the go services is great. For most things I need it works. I also know the best approaches for things out of the mundane, such as getting a nurses appoinntment being easier than a gp, but when you are in the surgery, if you need the gp, you will get one. But for many, many people it doesn’t work. A lot of people would prefer the deli counter approach - turn up, take a number, get in line. I assume there are reasons why this is not an option in most surgeries. A lot of people hate having to tell receptionists what the issue is, my mother in law included. They feel it’s none of their business. There are a lot of issues. Pharmacies will be doing more in future. You can expect to get some prescription only meds from the pharmacy without the need for a gp. But we probably need a really big think about how to make general practice work.
Comments
Imagine you’re fighting against the Russians in Mariupol. The Russians have invaded your country, they are indiscriminately slaughtering your women and children. They are using notoriously cruel Chechen mercenaries to go from house to house (known to torture and behead their enemies). The Russians are shelling schools and dropping white phosphorus on civilians. Everyone is starving and dogs are literally eating the corpses of your grandparents in the street (these are all verified neutral eye witness reports)
Then you capture some Russian soldiers. Alive. What do they expect to happen?
I’m sure it’s technically a ‘war crime’ but getting deliberately shot in the leg seems relatively trivial
If I was a Ukrainian fighter in Mariupol I’d be imagining much worse things I might do, given the chance
https://twitter.com/ConStelz/status/1508146663940108296
Keeping the whole UK in the single market would, rightly have been interpreted as a fake Brexit. It would have meant continued free movement. It wouldn't have solved anything.
It is now more than four years since the referendum vote ...
In a curious way, Putin has managed to narrow the gap between the mainstream and most of the far left - which is perhaps a small side-bonus for democracy.
*Our money.
The third is a remainery lib dem!
“ They made the world believe that Hitler was a German and Beethoven an Austrian.”
Some may recall a little while ago I mentioned my son in law had been called to the bedside of his gravelly ill mother
This morning she passed away peacefully after a brave fight over the last 12 months
When my son in law told his 13 year son of his Nain's passing he had just one word 'why'
The 'why' is a question every politician needs to consider, as it was directed at 'why' was I prevented from visiting her for 2 years and being able to tell her I love her
They also got themselves defined as the first victims of Nazi aggression (with the help of Churchill saying so in 1942).
@MeetThePress
·
3h
WATCH: Jeh Johnson says Pres. Biden’s ad lib on removing Russian Pres. Putin from power was “a statement of fact,” and “everyone in the Western world agrees.” #IfItsSunday
“I wouldn’t have walked it back”
https://twitter.com/MeetThePress/status/1508106593962967045
https://twitter.com/jackposobiec/status/1508132348407255042?s=21&t=Mz-f0Nz7upEAtwuM7Z1nzA
SPD 29 (+12)
CDU 19 (-5)
AfD 3 (-)
Linke 0 (-7)
FDP 0 (-)
Greens 0 (-)
That was destroyed, essentially by the Brexit hard gang, egged on by then king over the water, Boris Johnson.
Boris and the ERGers own the Irish problem, just as they do the decline of UK export performance.
(All of this was predicted by Remainers).
I just got off the subway in New York and even down there it’s in decline.
It’s tragic internally for the family but grandparents die. Parents die - I have great friends whose parents died younger than they are now.
There are people around the world who miss parents and grandparents deaths because they cannot see them for covid, cost, prison, army service, geography.
The grandson could “tell her I love her”. Like many people by phone, letter, card, FaceTime.
It’s not ideal but it’s not tue worst situation humanity currently deals with - deaths in Ukraine where they will never even find tue bodies yet alone ask “why”. Just one example amongst millions from history.
I would have loved to have not worn a mask and gloves to be with my father for his last 8 months in hospital but I’m not sure what the “why” is about. There was a horrid disease that killed people. I think a 13 year old can grasp that.
Sorry if I sound cold but it’s all a bit weird casting out family tragedy on here to make a nebulous point.
Unless of course I’m completely wrong and you were constantly arguing against masks and restrictions and hugging vulnerable old relations in hospital/care homes in which case I take all the above back.
So May might have the last laugh yet
So I’m assuming over the last two years you were against vulnerable people not receiving visitors in hospital or care homes? I had to work within very strict protocols to see my father before he died in hospital and the care home for the last few days he lived. My siblings too and his grandchildren.
My sister who lives in San Francisco managed to travel back and arrange to be tested left right and centre to see him right at the end.
I cannot tell you how much I wish I had been able to hold my father’s hand without a latex glove on and I was there holding his hand (in a latex glove and wearing a mask) on my own when he died but I also accept that these were extraordinary times and I know my father wouldn’t have felt any less of his grandchildren sending him a card to say they love him as he, despite his dementia on top of everything else that was killing him, got that it’s not a perfect world. And his multitude of grandchildren also understand that there was “covid”.
It is interesting to see an apparent consensus that the changes will be uniformly good for employees. If we consider the couple with 6 figure jobs, a big house (with a home office at the bottom of the garden) then it is quite possibly heaven. In those kind of jobs, the company may well be supporting them in terms of equipment and if not, they can afford an Aeron chair as a cheeky present to themselves.
If you listen, out there, there are already companies pushing more low wage jobs to home working. A friend of a family member works such a job - since the company uses VDI*, they are saying that you need to provide the computer at home to log into the VDI. No nice monitor or chair. You need to pay for all of that. There is no office to go to...
Other companies are providing a laptop. just that. So people are hunched over a 11 inch screen all day. In a number of cases, the office remains but on the basis of hot-desking. As in, come to the office and fight for whatever space you can find.
Companies are pushing the cost of equipment and office space onto the employees. I wonder, when people get back problems and RSI**, who will be liable?
*You log onto your work computer remotely, which is actually a cloud provided, rather abstract thing.
**Liability for such things was why every high end white collar company bought Aeron chairs for the office. It makes them lawsuit proof on that front, so the insurance goes down,
SPD 27
CDU 18
AfD 3
Grn 3
Turnout down around 8% on 2017.
@kiraincongress
The scariest thing that destructions are becoming our new normal.
Chicken near the burned house. The dog ran away. The car is destroyed. People crying and screaming.
#StopRussiaNow
https://twitter.com/kiraincongress/status/1508117551867478026
FWIW I do think Johnson's version of the Northern Ireland Protocol is bad and was surprised at the time that he went for it. May's Deal, while crap, wasn't quite as catastrophically bad. I sort of understand his motivation: he prioritised divergence from the EU of part of the UK, ie England, over the integrity of the United Kingdom. May made the opposite choice. Utterly baffling is that the DUP supported Johnson over May. Whatever else you believe about the DUP you would think they could smell fake unionists at twenty paces. However it's now a treaty and we're stuck with it, unless UKG decides to breach the treaty, with all the implications.
Rather than focussing on the shit side of their last few years maybe the family should be focussing on the good happy times and telling a young person to live life to the full as they don’t know how, when or “why” they will die.
It will be politically useful to the career of Boris Johnson by buying off the nutters like Rees-Mogg.
I detest masks. But I can't say its stupid that I have to wear one when I fly to and from London this week.
It's time to get it onto a voluntary basis now, let the people who want to continue to and the people who don't can go back to normal, seeing as they're not really making much different any more as far as I can see.
General Practice is a mess. Patients are unhappy with phone consultations and rightly so. Some hospital specialities are as bad for telephone outpatients. It simply isn't good medical care.
There are major areas of staff burnout and shortages, notably in anaesthesia and operating staff who bore the brunt of the covid ICU and have left with that thousand yard stare in their eyes.
Filling the vacancies with reduced international recruitment (everywhere around the world is fishing in the same pond), and postgraduate training that has been trashed by covid redeployment is a slow and painful process. A lot of painstaking remedial training is needed, at exactly the same time that the senior staff are being pressured to cut waiting lists, meaning that we are sowing the seeds of further crises. Senior staff that are counting the days to early retirement too.
I do wonder if the frail old lady that is the NHS has had a fatal blow.
It's being so cheerful wot keeps me going.
Although we were assured on here ad infinitum by @Philip_Thompson that A16 was a diplomatic masterstroke that would be exercised in due course, the problem is that A16 doesn’t in itself provide a solution.
Liz Truss does not want to go there.
Neither does Boris, who I think recognises that he has pushed self-harming Brexitology to the limit.
The reunification of Ireland is not what he wanted on his resume
He is ultimately right because Russia must be defeated, and Russians must believe they are defeated, to draw a line on unprovoked aggression against neighbouring countries and on systematic war crimes. In effect Russia cannot be defeated while Putin stays in power.
There is no solution for the GFA that doesn't involve the UK remaining dynamically aligned to the SM. Was the case before the referendum, after we triggered A50, after we implemented the Oven-Ready Deal.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/mar/27/royal-tour-commonwealth-queen-elizabeth-william-kate-caribbean
In practice this means almost 99.9% WFH because essentially if you're not told to go in on any given day, and no-one else is going in, why would you go in to sit in the office and have the same remote Teams calls? Other than to get out of the house?
My work seemingly haven't quite realised yet that you actually need to create reasons to go into the office. But secretly I think they are wanting "hybrid" as such to fail quickly so that they can just make the job fully WFH apart from the bare minimum of onsite people needed, and then ditch all the expensive city offices PDQ.
The other thing I'm finding is that a considerable percentage of people with kids now just pretty much point blank refuse to come in to the office at all at any time, ever, "because they've got to do the school run" or whatever. I'm all for the increase in flexibility everyone's got but there is an element of this that is making me think "nah you're taking the piss a bit here".
If you basically view work as just a load of tasks an individual has to get through as quickly as possible, then WFH has been brilliant for that - without distractions and commuting etc. that can all get done faster.
If you view work as any sort of community with a social element or a collaborative element or a shared experience or for career progression or for networking with other teams you don't work with on a daily basis but need to speak to every now and then etc. then it's been an unmitigated disaster.
But being outside them creates technical problems, insoluble ones in NI, makes Scotsman cry and makes UK a unique anomaly in a world which has bigger fish to fry.
A reformed and variable geometry EU is the only and obvious solution. Cameron tried this and failed. There are no good answers left.
@REDCResearch
for the
@businessposthq
- Sinn Fein still way ahead:
Sinn Féin 33
Fine Gael 19 (-1 in four weeks)
Fianna Fáil 16 (-1)
Green Party 5
Social Democrats 5 (+1)
Labour 5 (+1)
PBP-Solidarity 3
Aontú 2
Independents 11
(Poll: March 18-23)
Sinn Fein now extremely consistent at 33% in the RoI polls now and this should easily get them 60+ seats in 2025.
Fine Gael also now dropping below 20% for the first time since 2005.
Better poll for the smaller parties than the Behaviour and attitudes poll due to a possibly different methodology.
The most interesting thing is the relative resilience of the Irish Greens despite the collapse of FF and FG. I don't know how this plays out seatswise though in the greater Dublin area.
As you can see, the android version has some catching up to do
But more in our favour are the next Presidents of the EU Council, after we get shot of Macron and his obsessions, are Cz, Sw, Sp, Be, Hu, Po, Dk.
Something that hardcore Brexiters seemed to struggled with, as reasonable models like “Norway for now” failed to pick up traction.
Brexiters preferred to eat their sovereignty without delay.
Such initiatives, like EU enlargement, and the single market itself, are the result of statecraft that takes years.
1. On the hard left, people who take the view that my enemy's enemy is my friend. The Great Satan is the USA, and anyone who opposes the USA and NATO, must have some good about them.
2. On the hard right, people who think Putin is defending white Christian civilisation against homosexuals, transexuals, and immigrants.
3. The "realists" who can't see any reason not to allow Russia to exercise de facto sovereignty of the former USSR.
Not totally an unjustified belief either.
Just a shame that the nations interests actually need us to be closer aligned to make trade as easy as possible.
Essentially, their argument is similar to Chamberlain's.
Most of my prior contact with GPs with respect to previous episodes of depression has been lacklustre at best, so I've not considered it much loss, and fortunately I can afford to pay for private psychotherapy, but it's not much good really is it?
Lots of people at risk of falling through the gaps.
I started a job a bit before the pandemic - we had a year or so to become a proper team. We all started in the new team together, so there was no company back history/politics there. We have worked continuously on the same, massive project ever since.
So we had all the dynamics and interactions pre-loaded, as it were. I'm not sure that changing teams or what we do will anywhere near as easy.
Hammering through individual tasks is one thing. Collaborative effort does drop off when WFH. I make an especial effort with the inter team stuff you mention - set up video calls, get to know people. As a result I've become the team go-to guy for talking to the other teams. I'm not sure this is the right direction to go in.
Goodness knows why. It seems to be an Irish version of Corbynism except it's got even more traction.
Do not forget either the combined score for the FF and FG government is 35% ie 2% more than SF. Ireland is also STV PR not FPTP
I caused a moment on the weekend, when the discussion among a couple of people turned to what the end of the war should lookalike. They were all about the compromises that Ukraine should make.
I suggested that I would be OK with whatever version of the China/Ukraine border Zelensky was OK with.
A lot of people would prefer the deli counter approach - turn up, take a number, get in line. I assume there are reasons why this is not an option in most surgeries.
A lot of people hate having to tell receptionists what the issue is, my mother in law included. They feel it’s none of their business.
There are a lot of issues. Pharmacies will be doing more in future. You can expect to get some prescription only meds from the pharmacy without the need for a gp. But we probably need a really big think about how to make general practice work.