I never understood the appeal of Sunak at all TBH and agreed with a lot of HYUFD's criticisms in particular - just an extremely slippery untrustworthy plutocratic elitist (and a puffed up media phenomenon - look at Rentoul et al) whereas I can understand the theoretical appeal to different voter blocks such as Hunt, Mordaunt, Wallace, Tugendhat etc.
"There was something staggeringly tin-eared about the way Rishi chose to boast about his tax-cutting instincts at the very moment he was clobbering the British people with the biggest tax bombshell since Hugh Gaitskell was Chancellor."
It's a bit silly tbh. The NI raise had already been announced. So the main announcements of the mini budget were 5p a litre off fuel, a £3000 increase in allowances for NI meaning that 70% of the population were, at worst, no worse off as a result of the NI changes, an increase in the employers allowance for taking on a new worker and various insultation costs etc reduced to zero rated VAT. The bomb of the tax bombshell had already gone off.
None of that made the the aspiration of a penny off IT any less bizarre, however, when the government is clearly struggling to afford public spending and uncertainty is at a peak with the consequences of sanctions, a persistent pandemic, a real risk of an escalation of a war or, at the least, serious disruption amongst our major trading partners and inflation seriously out of control. The latter is going to mean huge pressure on both benefits and public sector pay. Saying we can afford a tax cut puts the government in a distinctly weird position in relation to that.
It's interesting that people are now assuming that Johnson had no say in Sunak's plans. Perhaps that is right but for a prime minister who likes to be the only big dog that is noteworthy.
Completely agree with Mike on this. I laid Sunak several months back at a very good profit. The odds on Starmer remain very attractive.
Meanwhile across the Irish Sea it is beginning to look possible that Sinn Fein will win most seats in the Stormont elections on May 5th, meaning the first ever Sinn Fein First Minister of Northern Ireland. I was lampooned by a couple of people for suggesting this might happen but it's now a real possibility.
You can get 2/1 on a Irish unification before 01/01/24 with Betfair which I'm probably not tempted by as it's too soon (I think) but the chances of it happening in our lifetimes are immeasurably closer. I was told that this was no big deal. Well it is a big deal. A seismic shift in United Kingdom politics. The seeds of this go back a long way but there's no doubt that Boris Johnson's sell-out of Northern Ireland provides the immediate catalyst. He sacrificed the union for his own political aspirations.
2/1 on Irish unification seems rather short in that time frame. It is looking increasingly likely over time though.
Hmm. Current Tory attitude to Scottish indyref is "who cares if there is a majority of votes and seats for pro-indy, pro-referendum parties? We still say no, we won't let you even have a democratic referendum". Which will be that much harder to justify if the Nirish get one on exactly that basis. Unless they argue that NI is somehow different from the rest of the UK, which is precisely what they have been denying all along while mishandling this aspect of Brexit ...
It’s a poor error of judgement on their part and one, I suspect, they will come to regret as it will make Indy more, not less, likely.
No it won't.
Grant an indyref2 now and it would be at best 50% No 50% Yes.
Refuse an indyref2 now and that guarantees Scotland stays in the UK.
If there is an indyref2 it will be a Labour government reliant on SNP support who has to take the risk, as long as this Tory government remains in power it will never allow an indyref2 anyway
In the short term you get your wish in the medium term I think this makes Indy far more likely than 50/50.
No it doesn't, certainly from a Tory perspective as we will never grant an indyref2 we need to win anyway now.
If Labour get in and grant one then they would take the risk of losing it and have to hope the devomax etc they likely promise allows No to scrape home
Never is a long time and it was a Tory leader who granted the last one. Would it be such a disaster if one was held and yes won ? Far better to be good friends with Scotland than holding an increasingly unwilling nation in a union they increasingly want no part of as they see it being for their detriment.
You are doing the Nationalists work for them.
Weak appeasement. You are talking as if Yes is on 90% not barely 50% in current polls.
This government is rightly standing up to the Nationalists, they had their chance in 2014, they lost and they will not get another one while we Tories are in power. Tough.
The idea we would be good friends with an SNP led Scotland after independence too? Laughable. It would be a very bitter divorce which would make the current UK and EU relationship look friendly
If I’m honest I’m not really bothered if Scotland became a separate nation or not but I do think we could, and would, have a better relationship than now.
Absolutely not, before the Act of Union Scotland was England's oldest enemy after France.
If an indyref2 was granted and Scotland voted for independence it would be an extremely divisive relationship, not least with huge arguments over who has how much North Sea Oil, the military etc, questions over passports, Treasury funding etc.
It would be a bitter, bitter divorce and ramp up Nationalism even further on these islands. It would make Brexit and our EU relationship look friendly
We've been over this before. The Danes are an older enemy to England. I don't know why you keep forgetting it.
England fought more wars against Scotland and France than it ever did against Denmark. Scotland was certainly England's 2nd longest enemy before the Act of Union
Your problem is you still see the Scots as the enemy
Scottish Nationalists not all Scots
They are not an enemy, they just have a different view to you.
If you think Scottish Nationalists don't see English Tories like me as the enemy, I would like to have some of what you are smoking!
Brilliant. The first rule of logic broken. Did I say they didn't see you as the enemy. No I didn't. We are talking about you viewing them as your enemy.
Eg Dogs have four legs does not mean things with four legs are dogs
Completely agree with Mike on this. I laid Sunak several months back at a very good profit. The odds on Starmer remain very attractive.
Meanwhile across the Irish Sea it is beginning to look possible that Sinn Fein will win most seats in the Stormont elections on May 5th, meaning the first ever Sinn Fein First Minister of Northern Ireland. I was lampooned by a couple of people for suggesting this might happen but it's now a real possibility.
You can get 2/1 on a Irish unification before 01/01/24 with Betfair which I'm probably not tempted by as it's too soon (I think) but the chances of it happening in our lifetimes are immeasurably closer. I was told that this was no big deal. Well it is a big deal. A seismic shift in United Kingdom politics. The seeds of this go back a long way but there's no doubt that Boris Johnson's sell-out of Northern Ireland provides the immediate catalyst. He sacrificed the union for his own political aspirations.
2/1 on Irish unification seems rather short in that time frame. It is looking increasingly likely over time though.
Hmm. Current Tory attitude to Scottish indyref is "who cares if there is a majority of votes and seats for pro-indy, pro-referendum parties? We still say no, we won't let you even have a democratic referendum". Which will be that much harder to justify if the Nirish get one on exactly that basis. Unless they argue that NI is somehow different from the rest of the UK, which is precisely what they have been denying all along while mishandling this aspect of Brexit ...
It’s a poor error of judgement on their part and one, I suspect, they will come to regret as it will make Indy more, not less, likely.
No it won't.
Grant an indyref2 now and it would be at best 50% No 50% Yes.
Refuse an indyref2 now and that guarantees Scotland stays in the UK.
If there is an indyref2 it will be a Labour government reliant on SNP support who has to take the risk, as long as this Tory government remains in power it will never allow an indyref2 anyway
In the short term you get your wish in the medium term I think this makes Indy far more likely than 50/50.
No it doesn't, certainly from a Tory perspective as we will never grant an indyref2 we need to win anyway now.
If Labour get in and grant one then they would take the risk of losing it and have to hope the devomax etc they likely promise allows No to scrape home
Never is a long time and it was a Tory leader who granted the last one. Would it be such a disaster if one was held and yes won ? Far better to be good friends with Scotland than holding an increasingly unwilling nation in a union they increasingly want no part of as they see it being for their detriment.
You are doing the Nationalists work for them.
Weak appeasement. You are talking as if Yes is on 90% not barely 50% in current polls.
This government is rightly standing up to the Nationalists, they had their chance in 2014, they lost and they will not get another one while we Tories are in power. Tough.
The idea we would be good friends with an SNP led Scotland after independence too? Laughable. It would be a very bitter divorce which would make the current UK and EU relationship look friendly
If I’m honest I’m not really bothered if Scotland became a separate nation or not but I do think we could, and would, have a better relationship than now.
Absolutely not, before the Act of Union Scotland was England's oldest enemy after France.
If an indyref2 was granted and Scotland voted for independence it would be an extremely divisive relationship, not least with huge arguments over who has how much North Sea Oil, the military etc, questions over passports, Treasury funding etc.
It would be a bitter, bitter divorce and ramp up Nationalism even further on these islands. It would make Brexit and our EU relationship look friendly
I am greatly saddened that a southern right wing Englishman should have such disrespect for the Scots who are generous and wonderful people
You seem to want to act as some old time despot who expects subservience from their people, when in fact all you succeed in doing is increase resentment and the inevitability of independence
You do have a habit of pontificating from Epping Forest on all things from behind a keyboard, with no practical knowledge of many of the topics you speak about
I lived in Berwick from 1954 to 1960, Edinburgh from 1960 - 1964, and here in North Wales since
I married a Scot in 1964 and have an extensive Scottish family but like so many of the nation are divided over independence, but I can tell you that indyref 2 is eminently winnable and far better to make a case in the right circumstances and grant indyref2
You quote Boris, but it is known that you cannot rely on anything he says and he may have thrown away a 40 year line, but circumstances could evolve that it would be politically expedient for him to allow indyref 2.
I would also comment he cannot just say no if an official request is received from the Scottish Government as that would be down to the HOC, which of course at present would be unlikely to agree
Maybe a more temperate and positive attitude would do you no harm, indeed you may benefit from it
If Boris allowed an indyref2 and lost it, he would be out of No 10 the next day as Cameron was after he lost the EUref he allowed and he knows it, hence he can and will continue to refuse one.
Starmer would refuse indyref2 too if he could avoid needing the SNP to become PM
Boris does not have the power to stop it, nor does Starmer
If a request is received it is the HOC that will decide which currently would say no
Of course he does, he has a Tory majority of 80 which will vote one down and the UK government would have to propose one to Parliament first anyway.
Starmer could ignore the SNP too if Labour won most seats at the next general election
As so much of your posts you do not seem to understand just how quickly attitudes can change, and of course any request from Scotland would be discussed in the HOC and depending on the circumstances at the time the HOC will vote accordingly
Completely agree with Mike on this. I laid Sunak several months back at a very good profit. The odds on Starmer remain very attractive.
Meanwhile across the Irish Sea it is beginning to look possible that Sinn Fein will win most seats in the Stormont elections on May 5th, meaning the first ever Sinn Fein First Minister of Northern Ireland. I was lampooned by a couple of people for suggesting this might happen but it's now a real possibility.
You can get 2/1 on a Irish unification before 01/01/24 with Betfair which I'm probably not tempted by as it's too soon (I think) but the chances of it happening in our lifetimes are immeasurably closer. I was told that this was no big deal. Well it is a big deal. A seismic shift in United Kingdom politics. The seeds of this go back a long way but there's no doubt that Boris Johnson's sell-out of Northern Ireland provides the immediate catalyst. He sacrificed the union for his own political aspirations.
2/1 on Irish unification seems rather short in that time frame. It is looking increasingly likely over time though.
Hmm. Current Tory attitude to Scottish indyref is "who cares if there is a majority of votes and seats for pro-indy, pro-referendum parties? We still say no, we won't let you even have a democratic referendum". Which will be that much harder to justify if the Nirish get one on exactly that basis. Unless they argue that NI is somehow different from the rest of the UK, which is precisely what they have been denying all along while mishandling this aspect of Brexit ...
It’s a poor error of judgement on their part and one, I suspect, they will come to regret as it will make Indy more, not less, likely.
No it won't.
Grant an indyref2 now and it would be at best 50% No 50% Yes.
Refuse an indyref2 now and that guarantees Scotland stays in the UK.
If there is an indyref2 it will be a Labour government reliant on SNP support who has to take the risk, as long as this Tory government remains in power it will never allow an indyref2 anyway
In the short term you get your wish in the medium term I think this makes Indy far more likely than 50/50.
No it doesn't, certainly from a Tory perspective as we will never grant an indyref2 we need to win anyway now.
If Labour get in and grant one then they would take the risk of losing it and have to hope the devomax etc they likely promise allows No to scrape home
Never is a long time and it was a Tory leader who granted the last one. Would it be such a disaster if one was held and yes won ? Far better to be good friends with Scotland than holding an increasingly unwilling nation in a union they increasingly want no part of as they see it being for their detriment.
You are doing the Nationalists work for them.
Weak appeasement. You are talking as if Yes is on 90% not barely 50% in current polls.
This government is rightly standing up to the Nationalists, they had their chance in 2014, they lost and they will not get another one while we Tories are in power. Tough.
The idea we would be good friends with an SNP led Scotland after independence too? Laughable. It would be a very bitter divorce which would make the current UK and EU relationship look friendly
If I’m honest I’m not really bothered if Scotland became a separate nation or not but I do think we could, and would, have a better relationship than now.
Absolutely not, before the Act of Union Scotland was England's oldest enemy after France.
If an indyref2 was granted and Scotland voted for independence it would be an extremely divisive relationship, not least with huge arguments over who has how much North Sea Oil, the military etc, questions over passports, Treasury funding etc.
It would be a bitter, bitter divorce and ramp up Nationalism even further on these islands. It would make Brexit and our EU relationship look friendly
We've been over this before. The Danes are an older enemy to England. I don't know why you keep forgetting it.
England fought more wars against Scotland and France than it ever did against Denmark. Scotland was certainly England's 2nd longest enemy before the Act of Union
Your problem is you still see the Scots as the enemy
Scottish Nationalists not all Scots
They are not an enemy, they just have a different view to you.
If you think Scottish Nationalists don't see English Tories like me as the enemy, I would like to have some of what you are smoking!
Brilliant. The first rule of logic broken. Did I say they didn't see you as the enemy. No I didn't. We are talking about you viewing them as your enemy.
Eg Dogs have four legs does not mean things with four legs are dogs
If they see me as their enemy then obviously they are also my enemy.
Completely agree with Mike on this. I laid Sunak several months back at a very good profit. The odds on Starmer remain very attractive.
Meanwhile across the Irish Sea it is beginning to look possible that Sinn Fein will win most seats in the Stormont elections on May 5th, meaning the first ever Sinn Fein First Minister of Northern Ireland. I was lampooned by a couple of people for suggesting this might happen but it's now a real possibility.
You can get 2/1 on a Irish unification before 01/01/24 with Betfair which I'm probably not tempted by as it's too soon (I think) but the chances of it happening in our lifetimes are immeasurably closer. I was told that this was no big deal. Well it is a big deal. A seismic shift in United Kingdom politics. The seeds of this go back a long way but there's no doubt that Boris Johnson's sell-out of Northern Ireland provides the immediate catalyst. He sacrificed the union for his own political aspirations.
2/1 on Irish unification seems rather short in that time frame. It is looking increasingly likely over time though.
Hmm. Current Tory attitude to Scottish indyref is "who cares if there is a majority of votes and seats for pro-indy, pro-referendum parties? We still say no, we won't let you even have a democratic referendum". Which will be that much harder to justify if the Nirish get one on exactly that basis. Unless they argue that NI is somehow different from the rest of the UK, which is precisely what they have been denying all along while mishandling this aspect of Brexit ...
It’s a poor error of judgement on their part and one, I suspect, they will come to regret as it will make Indy more, not less, likely.
No it won't.
Grant an indyref2 now and it would be at best 50% No 50% Yes.
Refuse an indyref2 now and that guarantees Scotland stays in the UK.
If there is an indyref2 it will be a Labour government reliant on SNP support who has to take the risk, as long as this Tory government remains in power it will never allow an indyref2 anyway
In the short term you get your wish in the medium term I think this makes Indy far more likely than 50/50.
No it doesn't, certainly from a Tory perspective as we will never grant an indyref2 we need to win anyway now.
If Labour get in and grant one then they would take the risk of losing it and have to hope the devomax etc they likely promise allows No to scrape home
Never is a long time and it was a Tory leader who granted the last one. Would it be such a disaster if one was held and yes won ? Far better to be good friends with Scotland than holding an increasingly unwilling nation in a union they increasingly want no part of as they see it being for their detriment.
You are doing the Nationalists work for them.
Weak appeasement. You are talking as if Yes is on 90% not barely 50% in current polls.
This government is rightly standing up to the Nationalists, they had their chance in 2014, they lost and they will not get another one while we Tories are in power. Tough.
The idea we would be good friends with an SNP led Scotland after independence too? Laughable. It would be a very bitter divorce which would make the current UK and EU relationship look friendly
If I’m honest I’m not really bothered if Scotland became a separate nation or not but I do think we could, and would, have a better relationship than now.
Absolutely not, before the Act of Union Scotland was England's oldest enemy after France.
If an indyref2 was granted and Scotland voted for independence it would be an extremely divisive relationship, not least with huge arguments over who has how much North Sea Oil, the military etc, questions over passports, Treasury funding etc.
It would be a bitter, bitter divorce and ramp up Nationalism even further on these islands. It would make Brexit and our EU relationship look friendly
We've been over this before. The Danes are an older enemy to England. I don't know why you keep forgetting it.
England fought more wars against Scotland and France than it ever did against Denmark. Scotland was certainly England's 2nd longest enemy before the Act of Union
Your problem is you still see the Scots as the enemy
Scottish Nationalists not all Scots
They are not an enemy, they just have a different view to you.
If you think Scottish Nationalists don't see English Tories like me as the enemy, I would like to have some of what you are smoking!
Fortunately you are not representatives of conservatives across the land
You are a narrow minded right wing Englishman who speaks like a despot on Scottish matters
Most Tories like me also see the SNP as the enemy.
Face it, the Tory party today is far more like me than you
I think 'Russian Troll' is an overdetected condition as regards on here.
There have been 3 detected. All have been on the same compromises VPN. 2 have been banned. @Heathener remains because @rcs1000 wants it to be so.
Not quite right. Not the same VPN, just that her VPN occurs on a list of suspicious ones. The fact that her language skills are fine, with no obvious errors leads me to believe she is a native speaker. I wouldn’t be surprised to find that much of what she posts is true, at least partly. Lots of people have worked for things like GCHQ, I mean the buildings need cleaners, after all. She may passionately believe all she posts, but I doubt it. When she arrived she debuted with bullshit about the government planning new lockdowns in November 2021, which was patent nonsense. She was either gullible, or trying to wind people up. Juries out, for me.
She's most likely a fantasist - claims to have worked in intelligence, yet demonstrates none of the temperament, knowledge or insight that you'd expect from such (intelligence services would avoid like the plague anyone driven by their emotions who tries to make everything personal) - claims to have a mysterious contact in Westminster who needs 'protecting' from Robert seeing her IP address - it's all BS, part of an act to try and wind us all up just for the lolz.
"There was something staggeringly tin-eared about the way Rishi chose to boast about his tax-cutting instincts at the very moment he was clobbering the British people with the biggest tax bombshell since Hugh Gaitskell was Chancellor."
It's a bit silly tbh. The NI raise had already been announced. So the main announcements of the mini budget were 5p a litre off fuel, a £3000 increase in allowances for NI meaning that 70% of the population were, at worst, no worse off as a result of the NI changes, an increase in the employers allowance for taking on a new worker and various insultation costs etc reduced to zero rated VAT. The bomb of the tax bombshell had already gone off.
None of that made the the aspiration of a penny off IT any less bizarre, however, when the government is clearly struggling to afford public spending and uncertainty is at a peak with the consequences of sanctions, a persistent pandemic, a real risk of an escalation of a war or, at the least, serious disruption amongst our major trading partners and inflation seriously out of control. The latter is going to mean huge pressure on both benefits and public sector pay. Saying we can afford a tax cut puts the government in a distinctly weird position in relation to that.
It's interesting that people are now assuming that Johnson had no say in Sunak's plans. Perhaps that is right but for a prime minister who likes to be the only big dog that is noteworthy.
You've not been paying attention. Boris has everything to do with Rishi's plans when they are popular. When Rishi has to do unpopular stuff, well, that's what you have a Chancellor for!
Completely agree with Mike on this. I laid Sunak several months back at a very good profit. The odds on Starmer remain very attractive.
Meanwhile across the Irish Sea it is beginning to look possible that Sinn Fein will win most seats in the Stormont elections on May 5th, meaning the first ever Sinn Fein First Minister of Northern Ireland. I was lampooned by a couple of people for suggesting this might happen but it's now a real possibility.
You can get 2/1 on a Irish unification before 01/01/24 with Betfair which I'm probably not tempted by as it's too soon (I think) but the chances of it happening in our lifetimes are immeasurably closer. I was told that this was no big deal. Well it is a big deal. A seismic shift in United Kingdom politics. The seeds of this go back a long way but there's no doubt that Boris Johnson's sell-out of Northern Ireland provides the immediate catalyst. He sacrificed the union for his own political aspirations.
2/1 on Irish unification seems rather short in that time frame. It is looking increasingly likely over time though.
Hmm. Current Tory attitude to Scottish indyref is "who cares if there is a majority of votes and seats for pro-indy, pro-referendum parties? We still say no, we won't let you even have a democratic referendum". Which will be that much harder to justify if the Nirish get one on exactly that basis. Unless they argue that NI is somehow different from the rest of the UK, which is precisely what they have been denying all along while mishandling this aspect of Brexit ...
It’s a poor error of judgement on their part and one, I suspect, they will come to regret as it will make Indy more, not less, likely.
No it won't.
Grant an indyref2 now and it would be at best 50% No 50% Yes.
Refuse an indyref2 now and that guarantees Scotland stays in the UK.
If there is an indyref2 it will be a Labour government reliant on SNP support who has to take the risk, as long as this Tory government remains in power it will never allow an indyref2 anyway
In the short term you get your wish in the medium term I think this makes Indy far more likely than 50/50.
No it doesn't, certainly from a Tory perspective as we will never grant an indyref2 we need to win anyway now.
If Labour get in and grant one then they would take the risk of losing it and have to hope the devomax etc they likely promise allows No to scrape home
Never is a long time and it was a Tory leader who granted the last one. Would it be such a disaster if one was held and yes won ? Far better to be good friends with Scotland than holding an increasingly unwilling nation in a union they increasingly want no part of as they see it being for their detriment.
You are doing the Nationalists work for them.
Weak appeasement. You are talking as if Yes is on 90% not barely 50% in current polls.
This government is rightly standing up to the Nationalists, they had their chance in 2014, they lost and they will not get another one while we Tories are in power. Tough.
The idea we would be good friends with an SNP led Scotland after independence too? Laughable. It would be a very bitter divorce which would make the current UK and EU relationship look friendly
If I’m honest I’m not really bothered if Scotland became a separate nation or not but I do think we could, and would, have a better relationship than now.
Absolutely not, before the Act of Union Scotland was England's oldest enemy after France.
If an indyref2 was granted and Scotland voted for independence it would be an extremely divisive relationship, not least with huge arguments over who has how much North Sea Oil, the military etc, questions over passports, Treasury funding etc.
It would be a bitter, bitter divorce and ramp up Nationalism even further on these islands. It would make Brexit and our EU relationship look friendly
We've been over this before. The Danes are an older enemy to England. I don't know why you keep forgetting it.
England fought more wars against Scotland and France than it ever did against Denmark. Scotland was certainly England's 2nd longest enemy before the Act of Union
Your problem is you still see the Scots as the enemy
Scottish Nationalists not all Scots
They are not an enemy, they just have a different view to you.
If you think Scottish Nationalists don't see English Tories like me as the enemy, I would like to have some of what you are smoking!
Fortunately you are not representatives of conservatives across the land
You are a narrow minded right wing Englishman who speaks like a despot on Scottish matters
Most Tories like me also see the SNP as the enemy.
Face it, the Tory party today is far more like me than you
To be honest you disgust me not least using that language when a war is being fought in Europe with a real enemy
In the absence of @roger, I cannot see much value in the Oscar betting.
I have a couple of quid on The Worst Person in the World in original screenplay and international feature. It seems to have done well in mainstream cinemas in the USA.
Having a SF first minister at Stormont may not make a lot of practical difference if the Unionists continue to spit the dummy. Nonetheless an important piece of symbolism. Having the FM oppose article 16 I'd quite significant two.
The Good Friday Agreement forced power sharing, but has entrenched a rather fossilised political divide. A dangerous can of worms to reopen, but needs doing at some point.
And obsessing about cock eyed symbolism is pretty much the single consistent element of the FLSOJ and his mob. With their NI SOP of thrashing about like a bull in a China shop I can see them manufacturing a reason to restore direct rule rather than have an SF minister.
I think 'Russian Troll' is an overdetected condition as regards on here.
There have been 3 detected. All have been on the same compromises VPN. 2 have been banned. @Heathener remains because @rcs1000 wants it to be so.
Not quite right. Not the same VPN, just that her VPN occurs on a list of suspicious ones. The fact that her language skills are fine, with no obvious errors leads me to believe she is a native speaker. I wouldn’t be surprised to find that much of what she posts is true, at least partly. Lots of people have worked for things like GCHQ, I mean the buildings need cleaners, after all. She may passionately believe all she posts, but I doubt it. When she arrived she debuted with bullshit about the government planning new lockdowns in November 2021, which was patent nonsense. She was either gullible, or trying to wind people up. Juries out, for me.
She's most likely a fantasist - claims to have worked in intelligence, yet demonstrates none of the temperament, knowledge or insight that you'd expect from such (intelligence services would avoid like the plague anyone driven by their emotions who tries to make everything personal) - claims to have a mysterious contact in Westminster who needs 'protecting' from Robert seeing her IP address - it's all BS, part of an act to try and wind us all up just for the lolz.
She also lives in a mysterious and unspecified region where mask wearing, even outdoors, is still common and it is socially acceptable to loudly castigate and perhaps assault those who do not wear masks.
Completely agree with Mike on this. I laid Sunak several months back at a very good profit. The odds on Starmer remain very attractive.
Meanwhile across the Irish Sea it is beginning to look possible that Sinn Fein will win most seats in the Stormont elections on May 5th, meaning the first ever Sinn Fein First Minister of Northern Ireland. I was lampooned by a couple of people for suggesting this might happen but it's now a real possibility.
You can get 2/1 on a Irish unification before 01/01/24 with Betfair which I'm probably not tempted by as it's too soon (I think) but the chances of it happening in our lifetimes are immeasurably closer. I was told that this was no big deal. Well it is a big deal. A seismic shift in United Kingdom politics. The seeds of this go back a long way but there's no doubt that Boris Johnson's sell-out of Northern Ireland provides the immediate catalyst. He sacrificed the union for his own political aspirations.
2/1 on Irish unification seems rather short in that time frame. It is looking increasingly likely over time though.
Hmm. Current Tory attitude to Scottish indyref is "who cares if there is a majority of votes and seats for pro-indy, pro-referendum parties? We still say no, we won't let you even have a democratic referendum". Which will be that much harder to justify if the Nirish get one on exactly that basis. Unless they argue that NI is somehow different from the rest of the UK, which is precisely what they have been denying all along while mishandling this aspect of Brexit ...
It’s a poor error of judgement on their part and one, I suspect, they will come to regret as it will make Indy more, not less, likely.
No it won't.
Grant an indyref2 now and it would be at best 50% No 50% Yes.
Refuse an indyref2 now and that guarantees Scotland stays in the UK.
If there is an indyref2 it will be a Labour government reliant on SNP support who has to take the risk, as long as this Tory government remains in power it will never allow an indyref2 anyway
In the short term you get your wish in the medium term I think this makes Indy far more likely than 50/50.
No it doesn't, certainly from a Tory perspective as we will never grant an indyref2 we need to win anyway now.
If Labour get in and grant one then they would take the risk of losing it and have to hope the devomax etc they likely promise allows No to scrape home
Never is a long time and it was a Tory leader who granted the last one. Would it be such a disaster if one was held and yes won ? Far better to be good friends with Scotland than holding an increasingly unwilling nation in a union they increasingly want no part of as they see it being for their detriment.
You are doing the Nationalists work for them.
Weak appeasement. You are talking as if Yes is on 90% not barely 50% in current polls.
This government is rightly standing up to the Nationalists, they had their chance in 2014, they lost and they will not get another one while we Tories are in power. Tough.
The idea we would be good friends with an SNP led Scotland after independence too? Laughable. It would be a very bitter divorce which would make the current UK and EU relationship look friendly
If I’m honest I’m not really bothered if Scotland became a separate nation or not but I do think we could, and would, have a better relationship than now.
Absolutely not, before the Act of Union Scotland was England's oldest enemy after France.
If an indyref2 was granted and Scotland voted for independence it would be an extremely divisive relationship, not least with huge arguments over who has how much North Sea Oil, the military etc, questions over passports, Treasury funding etc.
It would be a bitter, bitter divorce and ramp up Nationalism even further on these islands. It would make Brexit and our EU relationship look friendly
I am greatly saddened that a southern right wing Englishman should have such disrespect for the Scots who are generous and wonderful people
You seem to want to act as some old time despot who expects subservience from their people, when in fact all you succeed in doing is increase resentment and the inevitability of independence
You do have a habit of pontificating from Epping Forest on all things from behind a keyboard, with no practical knowledge of many of the topics you speak about
I lived in Berwick from 1954 to 1960, Edinburgh from 1960 - 1964, and here in North Wales since
I married a Scot in 1964 and have an extensive Scottish family but like so many of the nation are divided over independence, but I can tell you that indyref 2 is eminently winnable and far better to make a case in the right circumstances and grant indyref2
You quote Boris, but it is known that you cannot rely on anything he says and he may have thrown away a 40 year line, but circumstances could evolve that it would be politically expedient for him to allow indyref 2.
I would also comment he cannot just say no if an official request is received from the Scottish Government as that would be down to the HOC, which of course at present would be unlikely to agree
Maybe a more temperate and positive attitude would do you no harm, indeed you may benefit from it
If Boris allowed an indyref2 and lost it, he would be out of No 10 the next day as Cameron was after he lost the EUref he allowed and he knows it, hence he can and will continue to refuse one.
A question if I may, young HY... How many Conservative MPs do you actually know share your views on this?
Completely agree with Mike on this. I laid Sunak several months back at a very good profit. The odds on Starmer remain very attractive.
Meanwhile across the Irish Sea it is beginning to look possible that Sinn Fein will win most seats in the Stormont elections on May 5th, meaning the first ever Sinn Fein First Minister of Northern Ireland. I was lampooned by a couple of people for suggesting this might happen but it's now a real possibility.
You can get 2/1 on a Irish unification before 01/01/24 with Betfair which I'm probably not tempted by as it's too soon (I think) but the chances of it happening in our lifetimes are immeasurably closer. I was told that this was no big deal. Well it is a big deal. A seismic shift in United Kingdom politics. The seeds of this go back a long way but there's no doubt that Boris Johnson's sell-out of Northern Ireland provides the immediate catalyst. He sacrificed the union for his own political aspirations.
2/1 on Irish unification seems rather short in that time frame. It is looking increasingly likely over time though.
Hmm. Current Tory attitude to Scottish indyref is "who cares if there is a majority of votes and seats for pro-indy, pro-referendum parties? We still say no, we won't let you even have a democratic referendum". Which will be that much harder to justify if the Nirish get one on exactly that basis. Unless they argue that NI is somehow different from the rest of the UK, which is precisely what they have been denying all along while mishandling this aspect of Brexit ...
It’s a poor error of judgement on their part and one, I suspect, they will come to regret as it will make Indy more, not less, likely.
No it won't.
Grant an indyref2 now and it would be at best 50% No 50% Yes.
Refuse an indyref2 now and that guarantees Scotland stays in the UK.
If there is an indyref2 it will be a Labour government reliant on SNP support who has to take the risk, as long as this Tory government remains in power it will never allow an indyref2 anyway
In the short term you get your wish in the medium term I think this makes Indy far more likely than 50/50.
No it doesn't, certainly from a Tory perspective as we will never grant an indyref2 we need to win anyway now.
If Labour get in and grant one then they would take the risk of losing it and have to hope the devomax etc they likely promise allows No to scrape home
Never is a long time and it was a Tory leader who granted the last one. Would it be such a disaster if one was held and yes won ? Far better to be good friends with Scotland than holding an increasingly unwilling nation in a union they increasingly want no part of as they see it being for their detriment.
You are doing the Nationalists work for them.
Weak appeasement. You are talking as if Yes is on 90% not barely 50% in current polls.
This government is rightly standing up to the Nationalists, they had their chance in 2014, they lost and they will not get another one while we Tories are in power. Tough.
The idea we would be good friends with an SNP led Scotland after independence too? Laughable. It would be a very bitter divorce which would make the current UK and EU relationship look friendly
If I’m honest I’m not really bothered if Scotland became a separate nation or not but I do think we could, and would, have a better relationship than now.
Absolutely not, before the Act of Union Scotland was England's oldest enemy after France.
If an indyref2 was granted and Scotland voted for independence it would be an extremely divisive relationship, not least with huge arguments over who has how much North Sea Oil, the military etc, questions over passports, Treasury funding etc.
It would be a bitter, bitter divorce and ramp up Nationalism even further on these islands. It would make Brexit and our EU relationship look friendly
I am greatly saddened that a southern right wing Englishman should have such disrespect for the Scots who are generous and wonderful people
You seem to want to act as some old time despot who expects subservience from their people, when in fact all you succeed in doing is increase resentment and the inevitability of independence
You do have a habit of pontificating from Epping Forest on all things from behind a keyboard, with no practical knowledge of many of the topics you speak about
I lived in Berwick from 1954 to 1960, Edinburgh from 1960 - 1964, and here in North Wales since
I married a Scot in 1964 and have an extensive Scottish family but like so many of the nation are divided over independence, but I can tell you that indyref 2 is eminently winnable and far better to make a case in the right circumstances and grant indyref2
You quote Boris, but it is known that you cannot rely on anything he says and he may have thrown away a 40 year line, but circumstances could evolve that it would be politically expedient for him to allow indyref 2.
I would also comment he cannot just say no if an official request is received from the Scottish Government as that would be down to the HOC, which of course at present would be unlikely to agree
Maybe a more temperate and positive attitude would do you no harm, indeed you may benefit from it
If Boris allowed an indyref2 and lost it, he would be out of No 10 the next day as Cameron was after he lost the EUref he allowed and he knows it, hence he can and will continue to refuse one.
Starmer would refuse indyref2 too if he could avoid needing the SNP to become PM
Boris does not have the power to stop it, nor does Starmer
If a request is received it is the HOC that will decide which currently would say no
Of course he does, he has a Tory majority of 80 which will vote one down and the UK government would have to propose one to Parliament first anyway.
Starmer could ignore the SNP too if Labour won most seats at the next general election
Another 2nd referendum is almost certain not to happen before 2026, 100% certain not to happen as long as Sturgeon is leader (as Wings over Scotland is arguing). I think Starmer does need to make a constructive offer to the SNP, maybe offering considerable extra powers or even going as far as devo max but does not have to bow to a 2nd referendum on the SNP's terms (or at least timing) when polls are 50/50.
Personally I'm more sympathetic to the idea of an Irish Unity referendum (even if it's likely to lose), which will slowly gain further impetus after 2025 if Mary Lou McDonald becomes Taoiseach then.
In the absence of @roger, I cannot see much value in the Oscar betting.
I have a couple of quid on The Worst Person in the World in original screenplay and international feature. It seems to have done well in mainstream cinemas in the USA.
The one time of the year Roger is worth listening to and he is too busy patronising Russian Oligarch establishments in the South of France...revoke his PB membership now.
Completely agree with Mike on this. I laid Sunak several months back at a very good profit. The odds on Starmer remain very attractive.
Meanwhile across the Irish Sea it is beginning to look possible that Sinn Fein will win most seats in the Stormont elections on May 5th, meaning the first ever Sinn Fein First Minister of Northern Ireland. I was lampooned by a couple of people for suggesting this might happen but it's now a real possibility.
You can get 2/1 on a Irish unification before 01/01/24 with Betfair which I'm probably not tempted by as it's too soon (I think) but the chances of it happening in our lifetimes are immeasurably closer. I was told that this was no big deal. Well it is a big deal. A seismic shift in United Kingdom politics. The seeds of this go back a long way but there's no doubt that Boris Johnson's sell-out of Northern Ireland provides the immediate catalyst. He sacrificed the union for his own political aspirations.
2/1 on Irish unification seems rather short in that time frame. It is looking increasingly likely over time though.
Hmm. Current Tory attitude to Scottish indyref is "who cares if there is a majority of votes and seats for pro-indy, pro-referendum parties? We still say no, we won't let you even have a democratic referendum". Which will be that much harder to justify if the Nirish get one on exactly that basis. Unless they argue that NI is somehow different from the rest of the UK, which is precisely what they have been denying all along while mishandling this aspect of Brexit ...
It’s a poor error of judgement on their part and one, I suspect, they will come to regret as it will make Indy more, not less, likely.
No it won't.
Grant an indyref2 now and it would be at best 50% No 50% Yes.
Refuse an indyref2 now and that guarantees Scotland stays in the UK.
If there is an indyref2 it will be a Labour government reliant on SNP support who has to take the risk, as long as this Tory government remains in power it will never allow an indyref2 anyway
In the short term you get your wish in the medium term I think this makes Indy far more likely than 50/50.
Not an ounce of diplomacy or understanding, just a no or the tanks will be sent to Berwick
Same on all topics. Very black and white without consideration of other views. Also never contemplates the possibility of being wrong on anything, which makes confidence in any decision easier.
Yes because I am a Tory who believes in things, not a wet lettuce liberal
Priceless. So you are confirming that you are never wrong and that you don't consider anyone else's views. I mean really. Because that is what I posted and you said yes to.
I have never come across anyone who would say that.
Completely agree with Mike on this. I laid Sunak several months back at a very good profit. The odds on Starmer remain very attractive.
Meanwhile across the Irish Sea it is beginning to look possible that Sinn Fein will win most seats in the Stormont elections on May 5th, meaning the first ever Sinn Fein First Minister of Northern Ireland. I was lampooned by a couple of people for suggesting this might happen but it's now a real possibility.
You can get 2/1 on a Irish unification before 01/01/24 with Betfair which I'm probably not tempted by as it's too soon (I think) but the chances of it happening in our lifetimes are immeasurably closer. I was told that this was no big deal. Well it is a big deal. A seismic shift in United Kingdom politics. The seeds of this go back a long way but there's no doubt that Boris Johnson's sell-out of Northern Ireland provides the immediate catalyst. He sacrificed the union for his own political aspirations.
2/1 on Irish unification seems rather short in that time frame. It is looking increasingly likely over time though.
Hmm. Current Tory attitude to Scottish indyref is "who cares if there is a majority of votes and seats for pro-indy, pro-referendum parties? We still say no, we won't let you even have a democratic referendum". Which will be that much harder to justify if the Nirish get one on exactly that basis. Unless they argue that NI is somehow different from the rest of the UK, which is precisely what they have been denying all along while mishandling this aspect of Brexit ...
It’s a poor error of judgement on their part and one, I suspect, they will come to regret as it will make Indy more, not less, likely.
No it won't.
Grant an indyref2 now and it would be at best 50% No 50% Yes.
Refuse an indyref2 now and that guarantees Scotland stays in the UK.
If there is an indyref2 it will be a Labour government reliant on SNP support who has to take the risk, as long as this Tory government remains in power it will never allow an indyref2 anyway
In the short term you get your wish in the medium term I think this makes Indy far more likely than 50/50.
No it doesn't, certainly from a Tory perspective as we will never grant an indyref2 we need to win anyway now.
If Labour get in and grant one then they would take the risk of losing it and have to hope the devomax etc they likely promise allows No to scrape home
Never is a long time and it was a Tory leader who granted the last one. Would it be such a disaster if one was held and yes won ? Far better to be good friends with Scotland than holding an increasingly unwilling nation in a union they increasingly want no part of as they see it being for their detriment.
You are doing the Nationalists work for them.
Weak appeasement. You are talking as if Yes is on 90% not barely 50% in current polls.
This government is rightly standing up to the Nationalists, they had their chance in 2014, they lost and they will not get another one while we Tories are in power. Tough.
The idea we would be good friends with an SNP led Scotland after independence too? Laughable. It would be a very bitter divorce which would make the current UK and EU relationship look friendly
If I’m honest I’m not really bothered if Scotland became a separate nation or not but I do think we could, and would, have a better relationship than now.
Absolutely not, before the Act of Union Scotland was England's oldest enemy after France.
If an indyref2 was granted and Scotland voted for independence it would be an extremely divisive relationship, not least with huge arguments over who has how much North Sea Oil, the military etc, questions over passports, Treasury funding etc.
It would be a bitter, bitter divorce and ramp up Nationalism even further on these islands. It would make Brexit and our EU relationship look friendly
We've been over this before. The Danes are an older enemy to England. I don't know why you keep forgetting it.
England fought more wars against Scotland and France than it ever did against Denmark. Scotland was certainly England's 2nd longest enemy before the Act of Union
Your problem is you still see the Scots as the enemy
Scottish Nationalists not all Scots
They are not an enemy, they just have a different view to you.
If you think Scottish Nationalists don't see English Tories like me as the enemy, I would like to have some of what you are smoking!
Fortunately you are not representatives of conservatives across the land
You are a narrow minded right wing Englishman who speaks like a despot on Scottish matters
Most Tories like me also see the SNP as the enemy.
Face it, the Tory party today is far more like me than you
To be honest you disgust me not least using that language when a war is being fought in Europe with a real enemy
He is right though, he speaks the honest truth about the people who now dominate the Tory party.
Completely agree with Mike on this. I laid Sunak several months back at a very good profit. The odds on Starmer remain very attractive.
Meanwhile across the Irish Sea it is beginning to look possible that Sinn Fein will win most seats in the Stormont elections on May 5th, meaning the first ever Sinn Fein First Minister of Northern Ireland. I was lampooned by a couple of people for suggesting this might happen but it's now a real possibility.
You can get 2/1 on a Irish unification before 01/01/24 with Betfair which I'm probably not tempted by as it's too soon (I think) but the chances of it happening in our lifetimes are immeasurably closer. I was told that this was no big deal. Well it is a big deal. A seismic shift in United Kingdom politics. The seeds of this go back a long way but there's no doubt that Boris Johnson's sell-out of Northern Ireland provides the immediate catalyst. He sacrificed the union for his own political aspirations.
2/1 on Irish unification seems rather short in that time frame. It is looking increasingly likely over time though.
Hmm. Current Tory attitude to Scottish indyref is "who cares if there is a majority of votes and seats for pro-indy, pro-referendum parties? We still say no, we won't let you even have a democratic referendum". Which will be that much harder to justify if the Nirish get one on exactly that basis. Unless they argue that NI is somehow different from the rest of the UK, which is precisely what they have been denying all along while mishandling this aspect of Brexit ...
It’s a poor error of judgement on their part and one, I suspect, they will come to regret as it will make Indy more, not less, likely.
No it won't.
Grant an indyref2 now and it would be at best 50% No 50% Yes.
Refuse an indyref2 now and that guarantees Scotland stays in the UK.
If there is an indyref2 it will be a Labour government reliant on SNP support who has to take the risk, as long as this Tory government remains in power it will never allow an indyref2 anyway
In the short term you get your wish in the medium term I think this makes Indy far more likely than 50/50.
No it doesn't, certainly from a Tory perspective as we will never grant an indyref2 we need to win anyway now.
If Labour get in and grant one then they would take the risk of losing it and have to hope the devomax etc they likely promise allows No to scrape home
Never is a long time and it was a Tory leader who granted the last one. Would it be such a disaster if one was held and yes won ? Far better to be good friends with Scotland than holding an increasingly unwilling nation in a union they increasingly want no part of as they see it being for their detriment.
You are doing the Nationalists work for them.
Weak appeasement. You are talking as if Yes is on 90% not barely 50% in current polls.
This government is rightly standing up to the Nationalists, they had their chance in 2014, they lost and they will not get another one while we Tories are in power. Tough.
The idea we would be good friends with an SNP led Scotland after independence too? Laughable. It would be a very bitter divorce which would make the current UK and EU relationship look friendly
If I’m honest I’m not really bothered if Scotland became a separate nation or not but I do think we could, and would, have a better relationship than now.
Absolutely not, before the Act of Union Scotland was England's oldest enemy after France.
If an indyref2 was granted and Scotland voted for independence it would be an extremely divisive relationship, not least with huge arguments over who has how much North Sea Oil, the military etc, questions over passports, Treasury funding etc.
It would be a bitter, bitter divorce and ramp up Nationalism even further on these islands. It would make Brexit and our EU relationship look friendly
We've been over this before. The Danes are an older enemy to England. I don't know why you keep forgetting it.
England fought more wars against Scotland and France than it ever did against Denmark. Scotland was certainly England's 2nd longest enemy before the Act of Union
Your problem is you still see the Scots as the enemy
Scottish Nationalists not all Scots
They are not an enemy, they just have a different view to you.
If you think Scottish Nationalists don't see English Tories like me as the enemy, I would like to have some of what you are smoking!
Fortunately you are not representatives of conservatives across the land
You are a narrow minded right wing Englishman who speaks like a despot on Scottish matters
Most Tories like me also see the SNP as the enemy.
Face it, the Tory party today is far more like me than you
Completely agree with Mike on this. I laid Sunak several months back at a very good profit. The odds on Starmer remain very attractive.
Meanwhile across the Irish Sea it is beginning to look possible that Sinn Fein will win most seats in the Stormont elections on May 5th, meaning the first ever Sinn Fein First Minister of Northern Ireland. I was lampooned by a couple of people for suggesting this might happen but it's now a real possibility.
You can get 2/1 on a Irish unification before 01/01/24 with Betfair which I'm probably not tempted by as it's too soon (I think) but the chances of it happening in our lifetimes are immeasurably closer. I was told that this was no big deal. Well it is a big deal. A seismic shift in United Kingdom politics. The seeds of this go back a long way but there's no doubt that Boris Johnson's sell-out of Northern Ireland provides the immediate catalyst. He sacrificed the union for his own political aspirations.
2/1 on Irish unification seems rather short in that time frame. It is looking increasingly likely over time though.
Hmm. Current Tory attitude to Scottish indyref is "who cares if there is a majority of votes and seats for pro-indy, pro-referendum parties? We still say no, we won't let you even have a democratic referendum". Which will be that much harder to justify if the Nirish get one on exactly that basis. Unless they argue that NI is somehow different from the rest of the UK, which is precisely what they have been denying all along while mishandling this aspect of Brexit ...
It’s a poor error of judgement on their part and one, I suspect, they will come to regret as it will make Indy more, not less, likely.
No it won't.
Grant an indyref2 now and it would be at best 50% No 50% Yes.
Refuse an indyref2 now and that guarantees Scotland stays in the UK.
If there is an indyref2 it will be a Labour government reliant on SNP support who has to take the risk, as long as this Tory government remains in power it will never allow an indyref2 anyway
In the short term you get your wish in the medium term I think this makes Indy far more likely than 50/50.
Not an ounce of diplomacy or understanding, just a no or the tanks will be sent to Berwick
Same on all topics. Very black and white without consideration of other views. Also never contemplates the possibility of being wrong on anything, which makes confidence in any decision easier.
Yes because I am a Tory who believes in things, not a wet lettuce liberal
Priceless. So you are confirming that you are never wrong and that you don't consider anyone else's views. I mean really. Because that is what I posted and you said yes to.
I have never come across anyone who would say that.
No, just generally Conservatives are more ideological and committed in their views and principles than the average LD like you, as to be fair are Labour supporters.
Excepting maybe their opposition to Brexit in 2019
Completely agree with Mike on this. I laid Sunak several months back at a very good profit. The odds on Starmer remain very attractive.
Meanwhile across the Irish Sea it is beginning to look possible that Sinn Fein will win most seats in the Stormont elections on May 5th, meaning the first ever Sinn Fein First Minister of Northern Ireland. I was lampooned by a couple of people for suggesting this might happen but it's now a real possibility.
You can get 2/1 on a Irish unification before 01/01/24 with Betfair which I'm probably not tempted by as it's too soon (I think) but the chances of it happening in our lifetimes are immeasurably closer. I was told that this was no big deal. Well it is a big deal. A seismic shift in United Kingdom politics. The seeds of this go back a long way but there's no doubt that Boris Johnson's sell-out of Northern Ireland provides the immediate catalyst. He sacrificed the union for his own political aspirations.
2/1 on Irish unification seems rather short in that time frame. It is looking increasingly likely over time though.
Hmm. Current Tory attitude to Scottish indyref is "who cares if there is a majority of votes and seats for pro-indy, pro-referendum parties? We still say no, we won't let you even have a democratic referendum". Which will be that much harder to justify if the Nirish get one on exactly that basis. Unless they argue that NI is somehow different from the rest of the UK, which is precisely what they have been denying all along while mishandling this aspect of Brexit ...
It’s a poor error of judgement on their part and one, I suspect, they will come to regret as it will make Indy more, not less, likely.
No it won't.
Grant an indyref2 now and it would be at best 50% No 50% Yes.
Refuse an indyref2 now and that guarantees Scotland stays in the UK.
If there is an indyref2 it will be a Labour government reliant on SNP support who has to take the risk, as long as this Tory government remains in power it will never allow an indyref2 anyway
In the short term you get your wish in the medium term I think this makes Indy far more likely than 50/50.
No it doesn't, certainly from a Tory perspective as we will never grant an indyref2 we need to win anyway now.
If Labour get in and grant one then they would take the risk of losing it and have to hope the devomax etc they likely promise allows No to scrape home
Never is a long time and it was a Tory leader who granted the last one. Would it be such a disaster if one was held and yes won ? Far better to be good friends with Scotland than holding an increasingly unwilling nation in a union they increasingly want no part of as they see it being for their detriment.
You are doing the Nationalists work for them.
Weak appeasement. You are talking as if Yes is on 90% not barely 50% in current polls.
This government is rightly standing up to the Nationalists, they had their chance in 2014, they lost and they will not get another one while we Tories are in power. Tough.
The idea we would be good friends with an SNP led Scotland after independence too? Laughable. It would be a very bitter divorce which would make the current UK and EU relationship look friendly
If I’m honest I’m not really bothered if Scotland became a separate nation or not but I do think we could, and would, have a better relationship than now.
Absolutely not, before the Act of Union Scotland was England's oldest enemy after France.
If an indyref2 was granted and Scotland voted for independence it would be an extremely divisive relationship, not least with huge arguments over who has how much North Sea Oil, the military etc, questions over passports, Treasury funding etc.
It would be a bitter, bitter divorce and ramp up Nationalism even further on these islands. It would make Brexit and our EU relationship look friendly
We've been over this before. The Danes are an older enemy to England. I don't know why you keep forgetting it.
England fought more wars against Scotland and France than it ever did against Denmark. Scotland was certainly England's 2nd longest enemy before the Act of Union
Your problem is you still see the Scots as the enemy
Scottish Nationalists not all Scots
They are not an enemy, they just have a different view to you.
If you think Scottish Nationalists don't see English Tories like me as the enemy, I would like to have some of what you are smoking!
Fortunately you are not representatives of conservatives across the land
You are a narrow minded right wing Englishman who speaks like a despot on Scottish matters
Most Tories like me also see the SNP as the enemy.
Face it, the Tory party today is far more like me than you
To be honest you disgust me not least using that language when a war is being fought in Europe with a real enemy
He is right though, he speaks the honest truth about the people who now dominate the Tory party.
I do not see the leadership of the conservative party or indeed any party looking on the Scots as the enemy
Completely agree with Mike on this. I laid Sunak several months back at a very good profit. The odds on Starmer remain very attractive.
Meanwhile across the Irish Sea it is beginning to look possible that Sinn Fein will win most seats in the Stormont elections on May 5th, meaning the first ever Sinn Fein First Minister of Northern Ireland. I was lampooned by a couple of people for suggesting this might happen but it's now a real possibility.
You can get 2/1 on a Irish unification before 01/01/24 with Betfair which I'm probably not tempted by as it's too soon (I think) but the chances of it happening in our lifetimes are immeasurably closer. I was told that this was no big deal. Well it is a big deal. A seismic shift in United Kingdom politics. The seeds of this go back a long way but there's no doubt that Boris Johnson's sell-out of Northern Ireland provides the immediate catalyst. He sacrificed the union for his own political aspirations.
2/1 on Irish unification seems rather short in that time frame. It is looking increasingly likely over time though.
Hmm. Current Tory attitude to Scottish indyref is "who cares if there is a majority of votes and seats for pro-indy, pro-referendum parties? We still say no, we won't let you even have a democratic referendum". Which will be that much harder to justify if the Nirish get one on exactly that basis. Unless they argue that NI is somehow different from the rest of the UK, which is precisely what they have been denying all along while mishandling this aspect of Brexit ...
It’s a poor error of judgement on their part and one, I suspect, they will come to regret as it will make Indy more, not less, likely.
No it won't.
Grant an indyref2 now and it would be at best 50% No 50% Yes.
Refuse an indyref2 now and that guarantees Scotland stays in the UK.
If there is an indyref2 it will be a Labour government reliant on SNP support who has to take the risk, as long as this Tory government remains in power it will never allow an indyref2 anyway
In the short term you get your wish in the medium term I think this makes Indy far more likely than 50/50.
No it doesn't, certainly from a Tory perspective as we will never grant an indyref2 we need to win anyway now.
If Labour get in and grant one then they would take the risk of losing it and have to hope the devomax etc they likely promise allows No to scrape home
Never is a long time and it was a Tory leader who granted the last one. Would it be such a disaster if one was held and yes won ? Far better to be good friends with Scotland than holding an increasingly unwilling nation in a union they increasingly want no part of as they see it being for their detriment.
You are doing the Nationalists work for them.
Weak appeasement. You are talking as if Yes is on 90% not barely 50% in current polls.
This government is rightly standing up to the Nationalists, they had their chance in 2014, they lost and they will not get another one while we Tories are in power. Tough.
The idea we would be good friends with an SNP led Scotland after independence too? Laughable. It would be a very bitter divorce which would make the current UK and EU relationship look friendly
If I’m honest I’m not really bothered if Scotland became a separate nation or not but I do think we could, and would, have a better relationship than now.
Absolutely not, before the Act of Union Scotland was England's oldest enemy after France.
If an indyref2 was granted and Scotland voted for independence it would be an extremely divisive relationship, not least with huge arguments over who has how much North Sea Oil, the military etc, questions over passports, Treasury funding etc.
It would be a bitter, bitter divorce and ramp up Nationalism even further on these islands. It would make Brexit and our EU relationship look friendly
I am greatly saddened that a southern right wing Englishman should have such disrespect for the Scots who are generous and wonderful people
You seem to want to act as some old time despot who expects subservience from their people, when in fact all you succeed in doing is increase resentment and the inevitability of independence
You do have a habit of pontificating from Epping Forest on all things from behind a keyboard, with no practical knowledge of many of the topics you speak about
I lived in Berwick from 1954 to 1960, Edinburgh from 1960 - 1964, and here in North Wales since
I married a Scot in 1964 and have an extensive Scottish family but like so many of the nation are divided over independence, but I can tell you that indyref 2 is eminently winnable and far better to make a case in the right circumstances and grant indyref2
You quote Boris, but it is known that you cannot rely on anything he says and he may have thrown away a 40 year line, but circumstances could evolve that it would be politically expedient for him to allow indyref 2.
I would also comment he cannot just say no if an official request is received from the Scottish Government as that would be down to the HOC, which of course at present would be unlikely to agree
Maybe a more temperate and positive attitude would do you no harm, indeed you may benefit from it
If Boris allowed an indyref2 and lost it, he would be out of No 10 the next day as Cameron was after he lost the EUref he allowed and he knows it, hence he can and will continue to refuse one.
Starmer would refuse indyref2 too if he could avoid needing the SNP to become PM
Boris does not have the power to stop it, nor does Starmer
If a request is received it is the HOC that will decide which currently would say no
Of course he does, he has a Tory majority of 80 which will vote one down and the UK government would have to propose one to Parliament first anyway.
Starmer could ignore the SNP too if Labour won most seats at the next general election
Another 2nd referendum is almost certain not to happen before 2026, 100% certain not to happen as long as Sturgeon is leader (as Wings over Scotland is arguing). I think Starmer does need to make a constructive offer to the SNP, maybe offering considerable extra powers or even going as far as devo max but does not have to bow to a 2nd referendum on the SNP's terms (or at least timing) when polls are 50/50.
Personally I'm more sympathetic to the idea of an Irish Unity referendum (even if it's likely to lose), which will slowly gain further impetus after 2025 if Mary Lou McDonald becomes Taoiseach then.
If Starmer becomes PM an indyref2 is more likely than not if he needs SNP support with some flexibility on precise timing. However he might use devomax as a vehicle to try and win it.
An Irish Unity referendum however is only likely if Nationalists win more MLAs than Unionists or if the Alliance change their current opposition to a border poll
Completely agree with Mike on this. I laid Sunak several months back at a very good profit. The odds on Starmer remain very attractive.
Meanwhile across the Irish Sea it is beginning to look possible that Sinn Fein will win most seats in the Stormont elections on May 5th, meaning the first ever Sinn Fein First Minister of Northern Ireland. I was lampooned by a couple of people for suggesting this might happen but it's now a real possibility.
You can get 2/1 on a Irish unification before 01/01/24 with Betfair which I'm probably not tempted by as it's too soon (I think) but the chances of it happening in our lifetimes are immeasurably closer. I was told that this was no big deal. Well it is a big deal. A seismic shift in United Kingdom politics. The seeds of this go back a long way but there's no doubt that Boris Johnson's sell-out of Northern Ireland provides the immediate catalyst. He sacrificed the union for his own political aspirations.
2/1 on Irish unification seems rather short in that time frame. It is looking increasingly likely over time though.
Hmm. Current Tory attitude to Scottish indyref is "who cares if there is a majority of votes and seats for pro-indy, pro-referendum parties? We still say no, we won't let you even have a democratic referendum". Which will be that much harder to justify if the Nirish get one on exactly that basis. Unless they argue that NI is somehow different from the rest of the UK, which is precisely what they have been denying all along while mishandling this aspect of Brexit ...
It’s a poor error of judgement on their part and one, I suspect, they will come to regret as it will make Indy more, not less, likely.
No it won't.
Grant an indyref2 now and it would be at best 50% No 50% Yes.
Refuse an indyref2 now and that guarantees Scotland stays in the UK.
If there is an indyref2 it will be a Labour government reliant on SNP support who has to take the risk, as long as this Tory government remains in power it will never allow an indyref2 anyway
In the short term you get your wish in the medium term I think this makes Indy far more likely than 50/50.
No it doesn't, certainly from a Tory perspective as we will never grant an indyref2 we need to win anyway now.
If Labour get in and grant one then they would take the risk of losing it and have to hope the devomax etc they likely promise allows No to scrape home
Never is a long time and it was a Tory leader who granted the last one. Would it be such a disaster if one was held and yes won ? Far better to be good friends with Scotland than holding an increasingly unwilling nation in a union they increasingly want no part of as they see it being for their detriment.
You are doing the Nationalists work for them.
Weak appeasement. You are talking as if Yes is on 90% not barely 50% in current polls.
This government is rightly standing up to the Nationalists, they had their chance in 2014, they lost and they will not get another one while we Tories are in power. Tough.
The idea we would be good friends with an SNP led Scotland after independence too? Laughable. It would be a very bitter divorce which would make the current UK and EU relationship look friendly
If I’m honest I’m not really bothered if Scotland became a separate nation or not but I do think we could, and would, have a better relationship than now.
Absolutely not, before the Act of Union Scotland was England's oldest enemy after France.
If an indyref2 was granted and Scotland voted for independence it would be an extremely divisive relationship, not least with huge arguments over who has how much North Sea Oil, the military etc, questions over passports, Treasury funding etc.
It would be a bitter, bitter divorce and ramp up Nationalism even further on these islands. It would make Brexit and our EU relationship look friendly
I am greatly saddened that a southern right wing Englishman should have such disrespect for the Scots who are generous and wonderful people
You seem to want to act as some old time despot who expects subservience from their people, when in fact all you succeed in doing is increase resentment and the inevitability of independence
You do have a habit of pontificating from Epping Forest on all things from behind a keyboard, with no practical knowledge of many of the topics you speak about
I lived in Berwick from 1954 to 1960, Edinburgh from 1960 - 1964, and here in North Wales since
I married a Scot in 1964 and have an extensive Scottish family but like so many of the nation are divided over independence, but I can tell you that indyref 2 is eminently winnable and far better to make a case in the right circumstances and grant indyref2
You quote Boris, but it is known that you cannot rely on anything he says and he may have thrown away a 40 year line, but circumstances could evolve that it would be politically expedient for him to allow indyref 2.
I would also comment he cannot just say no if an official request is received from the Scottish Government as that would be down to the HOC, which of course at present would be unlikely to agree
Maybe a more temperate and positive attitude would do you no harm, indeed you may benefit from it
If Boris allowed an indyref2 and lost it, he would be out of No 10 the next day as Cameron was after he lost the EUref he allowed and he knows it, hence he can and will continue to refuse one.
A question if I may, young HY... How many Conservative MPs do you actually know share your views on this?
Completely agree with Mike on this. I laid Sunak several months back at a very good profit. The odds on Starmer remain very attractive.
Meanwhile across the Irish Sea it is beginning to look possible that Sinn Fein will win most seats in the Stormont elections on May 5th, meaning the first ever Sinn Fein First Minister of Northern Ireland. I was lampooned by a couple of people for suggesting this might happen but it's now a real possibility.
You can get 2/1 on a Irish unification before 01/01/24 with Betfair which I'm probably not tempted by as it's too soon (I think) but the chances of it happening in our lifetimes are immeasurably closer. I was told that this was no big deal. Well it is a big deal. A seismic shift in United Kingdom politics. The seeds of this go back a long way but there's no doubt that Boris Johnson's sell-out of Northern Ireland provides the immediate catalyst. He sacrificed the union for his own political aspirations.
2/1 on Irish unification seems rather short in that time frame. It is looking increasingly likely over time though.
Hmm. Current Tory attitude to Scottish indyref is "who cares if there is a majority of votes and seats for pro-indy, pro-referendum parties? We still say no, we won't let you even have a democratic referendum". Which will be that much harder to justify if the Nirish get one on exactly that basis. Unless they argue that NI is somehow different from the rest of the UK, which is precisely what they have been denying all along while mishandling this aspect of Brexit ...
It’s a poor error of judgement on their part and one, I suspect, they will come to regret as it will make Indy more, not less, likely.
No it won't.
Grant an indyref2 now and it would be at best 50% No 50% Yes.
Refuse an indyref2 now and that guarantees Scotland stays in the UK.
If there is an indyref2 it will be a Labour government reliant on SNP support who has to take the risk, as long as this Tory government remains in power it will never allow an indyref2 anyway
In the short term you get your wish in the medium term I think this makes Indy far more likely than 50/50.
No it doesn't, certainly from a Tory perspective as we will never grant an indyref2 we need to win anyway now.
If Labour get in and grant one then they would take the risk of losing it and have to hope the devomax etc they likely promise allows No to scrape home
Never is a long time and it was a Tory leader who granted the last one. Would it be such a disaster if one was held and yes won ? Far better to be good friends with Scotland than holding an increasingly unwilling nation in a union they increasingly want no part of as they see it being for their detriment.
You are doing the Nationalists work for them.
Weak appeasement. You are talking as if Yes is on 90% not barely 50% in current polls.
This government is rightly standing up to the Nationalists, they had their chance in 2014, they lost and they will not get another one while we Tories are in power. Tough.
The idea we would be good friends with an SNP led Scotland after independence too? Laughable. It would be a very bitter divorce which would make the current UK and EU relationship look friendly
If I’m honest I’m not really bothered if Scotland became a separate nation or not but I do think we could, and would, have a better relationship than now.
Absolutely not, before the Act of Union Scotland was England's oldest enemy after France.
If an indyref2 was granted and Scotland voted for independence it would be an extremely divisive relationship, not least with huge arguments over who has how much North Sea Oil, the military etc, questions over passports, Treasury funding etc.
It would be a bitter, bitter divorce and ramp up Nationalism even further on these islands. It would make Brexit and our EU relationship look friendly
We've been over this before. The Danes are an older enemy to England. I don't know why you keep forgetting it.
England fought more wars against Scotland and France than it ever did against Denmark. Scotland was certainly England's 2nd longest enemy before the Act of Union
Your problem is you still see the Scots as the enemy
Scottish Nationalists not all Scots
They are not an enemy, they just have a different view to you.
If you think Scottish Nationalists don't see English Tories like me as the enemy, I would like to have some of what you are smoking!
Fortunately you are not representatives of conservatives across the land
You are a narrow minded right wing Englishman who speaks like a despot on Scottish matters
Most Tories like me also see the SNP as the enemy.
Face it, the Tory party today is far more like me than you
To be honest you disgust me not least using that language when a war is being fought in Europe with a real enemy
He is right though, he speaks the honest truth about the people who now dominate the Tory party.
I do not see the leadership of the conservative party or indeed any party looking on the Scots as the enemy
Strongly disagree, but enemy no
Who said this about the Scottish Tory leader?
“If you take the King’s shilling you are beholden to the Crown.”
One might expect it to be another HYUFD quote but it is from one of his heroes instead.
Completely agree with Mike on this. I laid Sunak several months back at a very good profit. The odds on Starmer remain very attractive.
Meanwhile across the Irish Sea it is beginning to look possible that Sinn Fein will win most seats in the Stormont elections on May 5th, meaning the first ever Sinn Fein First Minister of Northern Ireland. I was lampooned by a couple of people for suggesting this might happen but it's now a real possibility.
You can get 2/1 on a Irish unification before 01/01/24 with Betfair which I'm probably not tempted by as it's too soon (I think) but the chances of it happening in our lifetimes are immeasurably closer. I was told that this was no big deal. Well it is a big deal. A seismic shift in United Kingdom politics. The seeds of this go back a long way but there's no doubt that Boris Johnson's sell-out of Northern Ireland provides the immediate catalyst. He sacrificed the union for his own political aspirations.
2/1 on Irish unification seems rather short in that time frame. It is looking increasingly likely over time though.
Hmm. Current Tory attitude to Scottish indyref is "who cares if there is a majority of votes and seats for pro-indy, pro-referendum parties? We still say no, we won't let you even have a democratic referendum". Which will be that much harder to justify if the Nirish get one on exactly that basis. Unless they argue that NI is somehow different from the rest of the UK, which is precisely what they have been denying all along while mishandling this aspect of Brexit ...
It’s a poor error of judgement on their part and one, I suspect, they will come to regret as it will make Indy more, not less, likely.
No it won't.
Grant an indyref2 now and it would be at best 50% No 50% Yes.
Refuse an indyref2 now and that guarantees Scotland stays in the UK.
If there is an indyref2 it will be a Labour government reliant on SNP support who has to take the risk, as long as this Tory government remains in power it will never allow an indyref2 anyway
In the short term you get your wish in the medium term I think this makes Indy far more likely than 50/50.
No it doesn't, certainly from a Tory perspective as we will never grant an indyref2 we need to win anyway now.
If Labour get in and grant one then they would take the risk of losing it and have to hope the devomax etc they likely promise allows No to scrape home
Never is a long time and it was a Tory leader who granted the last one. Would it be such a disaster if one was held and yes won ? Far better to be good friends with Scotland than holding an increasingly unwilling nation in a union they increasingly want no part of as they see it being for their detriment.
You are doing the Nationalists work for them.
Weak appeasement. You are talking as if Yes is on 90% not barely 50% in current polls.
This government is rightly standing up to the Nationalists, they had their chance in 2014, they lost and they will not get another one while we Tories are in power. Tough.
The idea we would be good friends with an SNP led Scotland after independence too? Laughable. It would be a very bitter divorce which would make the current UK and EU relationship look friendly
If I’m honest I’m not really bothered if Scotland became a separate nation or not but I do think we could, and would, have a better relationship than now.
Absolutely not, before the Act of Union Scotland was England's oldest enemy after France.
If an indyref2 was granted and Scotland voted for independence it would be an extremely divisive relationship, not least with huge arguments over who has how much North Sea Oil, the military etc, questions over passports, Treasury funding etc.
It would be a bitter, bitter divorce and ramp up Nationalism even further on these islands. It would make Brexit and our EU relationship look friendly
I am greatly saddened that a southern right wing Englishman should have such disrespect for the Scots who are generous and wonderful people
You seem to want to act as some old time despot who expects subservience from their people, when in fact all you succeed in doing is increase resentment and the inevitability of independence
You do have a habit of pontificating from Epping Forest on all things from behind a keyboard, with no practical knowledge of many of the topics you speak about
I lived in Berwick from 1954 to 1960, Edinburgh from 1960 - 1964, and here in North Wales since
I married a Scot in 1964 and have an extensive Scottish family but like so many of the nation are divided over independence, but I can tell you that indyref 2 is eminently winnable and far better to make a case in the right circumstances and grant indyref2
You quote Boris, but it is known that you cannot rely on anything he says and he may have thrown away a 40 year line, but circumstances could evolve that it would be politically expedient for him to allow indyref 2.
I would also comment he cannot just say no if an official request is received from the Scottish Government as that would be down to the HOC, which of course at present would be unlikely to agree
Maybe a more temperate and positive attitude would do you no harm, indeed you may benefit from it
If Boris allowed an indyref2 and lost it, he would be out of No 10 the next day as Cameron was after he lost the EUref he allowed and he knows it, hence he can and will continue to refuse one.
A question if I may, young HY... How many Conservative MPs do you actually know share your views on this?
A tycoon given the botched contract to build CalMac ferries, now more than £150 million over budget, claims the SNP rushed it through without normal safeguards for taxpayers because it wanted good publicity at its party conference.
In a damning report last week Audit Scotland, the watchdog, said it could not establish why ministers dropped a requirement for full repayment guarantees if the billionaire Jim McColl’s Ferguson yard failed to build the ships on time or went bust.
Having disregarded the advice of their procurement agency CMAL not to award him the work amid concern about the lack of guarantees, ministers have saddled taxpayers with a huge extra cost, with the ships five years behind schedule.
I still think that Boris will not only lead the Tories into the next election but win it, albeit with a reduced majority. As long as I think that I would not bet on SKS because it seems vanishingly unlikely to me that Boris would do another full term so the mext PM would also be a Tory, even if SKS holds on to leader on the back of an improved result.
It's way too early to say who that Tory replacement will be. This is a market for laying not buying.
Odds though David.
Once it dawns that the GE is Muscly Man v Sanity Starmer the latter will be trading in the 3s.
An interesting clip on Russian media, the truth cannot be hidden forever. What a criminal waste of young men. The body language of the wounded tells a tale:
Russian state television broadcasts footage of “special operation” veterans being awarded medals. They actually showed young men who’ve lost their limbs in the war. https://t.co/BRBCUvo2PK
In the absence of @roger, I cannot see much value in the Oscar betting.
I have a couple of quid on The Worst Person in the World in original screenplay and international feature. It seems to have done well in mainstream cinemas in the USA.
The one time of the year Roger is worth listening to and he is too busy patronising Russian Oligarch establishments in the South of France...revoke his PB membership now.
To be worth listening to for one time of the year is a status some PBers can only dream of.
Completely agree with Mike on this. I laid Sunak several months back at a very good profit. The odds on Starmer remain very attractive.
Meanwhile across the Irish Sea it is beginning to look possible that Sinn Fein will win most seats in the Stormont elections on May 5th, meaning the first ever Sinn Fein First Minister of Northern Ireland. I was lampooned by a couple of people for suggesting this might happen but it's now a real possibility.
You can get 2/1 on a Irish unification before 01/01/24 with Betfair which I'm probably not tempted by as it's too soon (I think) but the chances of it happening in our lifetimes are immeasurably closer. I was told that this was no big deal. Well it is a big deal. A seismic shift in United Kingdom politics. The seeds of this go back a long way but there's no doubt that Boris Johnson's sell-out of Northern Ireland provides the immediate catalyst. He sacrificed the union for his own political aspirations.
2/1 on Irish unification seems rather short in that time frame. It is looking increasingly likely over time though.
Hmm. Current Tory attitude to Scottish indyref is "who cares if there is a majority of votes and seats for pro-indy, pro-referendum parties? We still say no, we won't let you even have a democratic referendum". Which will be that much harder to justify if the Nirish get one on exactly that basis. Unless they argue that NI is somehow different from the rest of the UK, which is precisely what they have been denying all along while mishandling this aspect of Brexit ...
It’s a poor error of judgement on their part and one, I suspect, they will come to regret as it will make Indy more, not less, likely.
No it won't.
Grant an indyref2 now and it would be at best 50% No 50% Yes.
Refuse an indyref2 now and that guarantees Scotland stays in the UK.
If there is an indyref2 it will be a Labour government reliant on SNP support who has to take the risk, as long as this Tory government remains in power it will never allow an indyref2 anyway
In the short term you get your wish in the medium term I think this makes Indy far more likely than 50/50.
Not an ounce of diplomacy or understanding, just a no or the tanks will be sent to Berwick
Same on all topics. Very black and white without consideration of other views. Also never contemplates the possibility of being wrong on anything, which makes confidence in any decision easier.
Yes because I am a Tory who believes in things, not a wet lettuce liberal
Priceless. So you are confirming that you are never wrong and that you don't consider anyone else's views. I mean really. Because that is what I posted and you said yes to.
I have never come across anyone who would say that.
No, just generally Conservatives are more ideological and committed in their views and principles than the average LD like you, as to be fair are Labour supporters.
Excepting maybe their opposition to Brexit in 2019
That was a 'thing' about traditional Conservatives in my youth; very often they weren't very 'ideological'.
An interesting clip on Russian media, the truth cannot be hidden forever. What a criminal waste of young men:
Russian state television broadcasts footage of “special operation” veterans being awarded medals. They actually showed young men who’ve lost their limbs in the war. https://t.co/BRBCUvo2PK
Could that be a sly deliberate dig from those at the tv station? Or just not thinking about how it might look?
Completely agree with Mike on this. I laid Sunak several months back at a very good profit. The odds on Starmer remain very attractive.
Meanwhile across the Irish Sea it is beginning to look possible that Sinn Fein will win most seats in the Stormont elections on May 5th, meaning the first ever Sinn Fein First Minister of Northern Ireland. I was lampooned by a couple of people for suggesting this might happen but it's now a real possibility.
You can get 2/1 on a Irish unification before 01/01/24 with Betfair which I'm probably not tempted by as it's too soon (I think) but the chances of it happening in our lifetimes are immeasurably closer. I was told that this was no big deal. Well it is a big deal. A seismic shift in United Kingdom politics. The seeds of this go back a long way but there's no doubt that Boris Johnson's sell-out of Northern Ireland provides the immediate catalyst. He sacrificed the union for his own political aspirations.
2/1 on Irish unification seems rather short in that time frame. It is looking increasingly likely over time though.
Hmm. Current Tory attitude to Scottish indyref is "who cares if there is a majority of votes and seats for pro-indy, pro-referendum parties? We still say no, we won't let you even have a democratic referendum". Which will be that much harder to justify if the Nirish get one on exactly that basis. Unless they argue that NI is somehow different from the rest of the UK, which is precisely what they have been denying all along while mishandling this aspect of Brexit ...
It’s a poor error of judgement on their part and one, I suspect, they will come to regret as it will make Indy more, not less, likely.
No it won't.
Grant an indyref2 now and it would be at best 50% No 50% Yes.
Refuse an indyref2 now and that guarantees Scotland stays in the UK.
If there is an indyref2 it will be a Labour government reliant on SNP support who has to take the risk, as long as this Tory government remains in power it will never allow an indyref2 anyway
In the short term you get your wish in the medium term I think this makes Indy far more likely than 50/50.
No it doesn't, certainly from a Tory perspective as we will never grant an indyref2 we need to win anyway now.
If Labour get in and grant one then they would take the risk of losing it and have to hope the devomax etc they likely promise allows No to scrape home
Never is a long time and it was a Tory leader who granted the last one. Would it be such a disaster if one was held and yes won ? Far better to be good friends with Scotland than holding an increasingly unwilling nation in a union they increasingly want no part of as they see it being for their detriment.
You are doing the Nationalists work for them.
Weak appeasement. You are talking as if Yes is on 90% not barely 50% in current polls.
This government is rightly standing up to the Nationalists, they had their chance in 2014, they lost and they will not get another one while we Tories are in power. Tough.
The idea we would be good friends with an SNP led Scotland after independence too? Laughable. It would be a very bitter divorce which would make the current UK and EU relationship look friendly
If I’m honest I’m not really bothered if Scotland became a separate nation or not but I do think we could, and would, have a better relationship than now.
Absolutely not, before the Act of Union Scotland was England's oldest enemy after France.
If an indyref2 was granted and Scotland voted for independence it would be an extremely divisive relationship, not least with huge arguments over who has how much North Sea Oil, the military etc, questions over passports, Treasury funding etc.
It would be a bitter, bitter divorce and ramp up Nationalism even further on these islands. It would make Brexit and our EU relationship look friendly
I am greatly saddened that a southern right wing Englishman should have such disrespect for the Scots who are generous and wonderful people
You seem to want to act as some old time despot who expects subservience from their people, when in fact all you succeed in doing is increase resentment and the inevitability of independence
You do have a habit of pontificating from Epping Forest on all things from behind a keyboard, with no practical knowledge of many of the topics you speak about
I lived in Berwick from 1954 to 1960, Edinburgh from 1960 - 1964, and here in North Wales since
I married a Scot in 1964 and have an extensive Scottish family but like so many of the nation are divided over independence, but I can tell you that indyref 2 is eminently winnable and far better to make a case in the right circumstances and grant indyref2
You quote Boris, but it is known that you cannot rely on anything he says and he may have thrown away a 40 year line, but circumstances could evolve that it would be politically expedient for him to allow indyref 2.
I would also comment he cannot just say no if an official request is received from the Scottish Government as that would be down to the HOC, which of course at present would be unlikely to agree
Maybe a more temperate and positive attitude would do you no harm, indeed you may benefit from it
If Boris allowed an indyref2 and lost it, he would be out of No 10 the next day as Cameron was after he lost the EUref he allowed and he knows it, hence he can and will continue to refuse one.
A question if I may, young HY... How many Conservative MPs do you actually know share your views on this?
Almost all of them
A supplementary then, if I may... How many of them would be prepared to come on here and endorse your views under their own names?
Having a SF first minister at Stormont may not make a lot of practical difference if the Unionists continue to spit the dummy. Nonetheless an important piece of symbolism. Having the FM oppose article 16 I'd quite significant two.
The Good Friday Agreement forced power sharing, but has entrenched a rather fossilised political divide. A dangerous can of worms to reopen, but needs doing at some point.
Starting point is schools. If we can't force unsegregated schools, at least encourage them. Perhaps a 20% funding premium for those whose children are less than 70% from both main faiths.
Faith schools are as much a matter of parental and religious choice in NI as in GB
And should be banned in all parts of the UK.
Yes, I think so. I don't see Faith as a bad thing - in fact I'd love some - but it's a private matter.
"There was something staggeringly tin-eared about the way Rishi chose to boast about his tax-cutting instincts at the very moment he was clobbering the British people with the biggest tax bombshell since Hugh Gaitskell was Chancellor."
It's a bit silly tbh. The NI raise had already been announced. So the main announcements of the mini budget were 5p a litre off fuel, a £3000 increase in allowances for NI meaning that 70% of the population were, at worst, no worse off as a result of the NI changes, an increase in the employers allowance for taking on a new worker and various insultation costs etc reduced to zero rated VAT. The bomb of the tax bombshell had already gone off.
None of that made the the aspiration of a penny off IT any less bizarre, however, when the government is clearly struggling to afford public spending and uncertainty is at a peak with the consequences of sanctions, a persistent pandemic, a real risk of an escalation of a war or, at the least, serious disruption amongst our major trading partners and inflation seriously out of control. The latter is going to mean huge pressure on both benefits and public sector pay. Saying we can afford a tax cut puts the government in a distinctly weird position in relation to that.
It's interesting that people are now assuming that Johnson had no say in Sunak's plans. Perhaps that is right but for a prime minister who likes to be the only big dog that is noteworthy.
You've not been paying attention. Boris has everything to do with Rishi's plans when they are popular. When Rishi has to do unpopular stuff, well, that's what you have a Chancellor for!
I haven't dug into the details but I see some interesting things in the statement. The tax rate bands are frozen. The NI one is being raised. This is significant. I've long wanted to see more income tax and less NI. Pensioners will start paying more tax in effect. It's the 1p cut that doesn't make much sense.
Equalising the rate bands is an interesting move. Opens the possibility for a simplification. Sunak's big problem is the economic headwinds that are blowing. Perhaps he could have done more for the poorest? But is that the priority for the Tory party.
HYUFD, one man wrecking crew against Cameron approach to detoxification of the Tory brand....
Highest Tory voteshare under Cameron? 37% in 2015.
Tory voteshare under Boris? 43.6% in 2019.
I campaigned for Cameron but he always appealed more to the liberal upper middle class than the bigger group of the lower middle class and skilled working class. Boris is the reverse
Completely agree with Mike on this. I laid Sunak several months back at a very good profit. The odds on Starmer remain very attractive.
Meanwhile across the Irish Sea it is beginning to look possible that Sinn Fein will win most seats in the Stormont elections on May 5th, meaning the first ever Sinn Fein First Minister of Northern Ireland. I was lampooned by a couple of people for suggesting this might happen but it's now a real possibility.
You can get 2/1 on a Irish unification before 01/01/24 with Betfair which I'm probably not tempted by as it's too soon (I think) but the chances of it happening in our lifetimes are immeasurably closer. I was told that this was no big deal. Well it is a big deal. A seismic shift in United Kingdom politics. The seeds of this go back a long way but there's no doubt that Boris Johnson's sell-out of Northern Ireland provides the immediate catalyst. He sacrificed the union for his own political aspirations.
2/1 on Irish unification seems rather short in that time frame. It is looking increasingly likely over time though.
Hmm. Current Tory attitude to Scottish indyref is "who cares if there is a majority of votes and seats for pro-indy, pro-referendum parties? We still say no, we won't let you even have a democratic referendum". Which will be that much harder to justify if the Nirish get one on exactly that basis. Unless they argue that NI is somehow different from the rest of the UK, which is precisely what they have been denying all along while mishandling this aspect of Brexit ...
It’s a poor error of judgement on their part and one, I suspect, they will come to regret as it will make Indy more, not less, likely.
No it won't.
Grant an indyref2 now and it would be at best 50% No 50% Yes.
Refuse an indyref2 now and that guarantees Scotland stays in the UK.
If there is an indyref2 it will be a Labour government reliant on SNP support who has to take the risk, as long as this Tory government remains in power it will never allow an indyref2 anyway
In the short term you get your wish in the medium term I think this makes Indy far more likely than 50/50.
Not an ounce of diplomacy or understanding, just a no or the tanks will be sent to Berwick
Same on all topics. Very black and white without consideration of other views. Also never contemplates the possibility of being wrong on anything, which makes confidence in any decision easier.
Yes because I am a Tory who believes in things, not a wet lettuce liberal
Priceless. So you are confirming that you are never wrong and that you don't consider anyone else's views. I mean really. Because that is what I posted and you said yes to.
I have never come across anyone who would say that.
No, just generally Conservatives are more ideological and committed in their views and principles than the average LD like you, as to be fair are Labour supporters.
Excepting maybe their opposition to Brexit in 2019
Well I would dispute that as I have quite radical views on lots of stuff as are most active LDs (as opposed to supporters) and unlike Conservatives as, which the name implies, are conservative.
Completely agree with Mike on this. I laid Sunak several months back at a very good profit. The odds on Starmer remain very attractive.
Meanwhile across the Irish Sea it is beginning to look possible that Sinn Fein will win most seats in the Stormont elections on May 5th, meaning the first ever Sinn Fein First Minister of Northern Ireland. I was lampooned by a couple of people for suggesting this might happen but it's now a real possibility.
You can get 2/1 on a Irish unification before 01/01/24 with Betfair which I'm probably not tempted by as it's too soon (I think) but the chances of it happening in our lifetimes are immeasurably closer. I was told that this was no big deal. Well it is a big deal. A seismic shift in United Kingdom politics. The seeds of this go back a long way but there's no doubt that Boris Johnson's sell-out of Northern Ireland provides the immediate catalyst. He sacrificed the union for his own political aspirations.
2/1 on Irish unification seems rather short in that time frame. It is looking increasingly likely over time though.
Hmm. Current Tory attitude to Scottish indyref is "who cares if there is a majority of votes and seats for pro-indy, pro-referendum parties? We still say no, we won't let you even have a democratic referendum". Which will be that much harder to justify if the Nirish get one on exactly that basis. Unless they argue that NI is somehow different from the rest of the UK, which is precisely what they have been denying all along while mishandling this aspect of Brexit ...
It’s a poor error of judgement on their part and one, I suspect, they will come to regret as it will make Indy more, not less, likely.
No it won't.
Grant an indyref2 now and it would be at best 50% No 50% Yes.
Refuse an indyref2 now and that guarantees Scotland stays in the UK.
If there is an indyref2 it will be a Labour government reliant on SNP support who has to take the risk, as long as this Tory government remains in power it will never allow an indyref2 anyway
In the short term you get your wish in the medium term I think this makes Indy far more likely than 50/50.
Not an ounce of diplomacy or understanding, just a no or the tanks will be sent to Berwick
Same on all topics. Very black and white without consideration of other views. Also never contemplates the possibility of being wrong on anything, which makes confidence in any decision easier.
Yes because I am a Tory who believes in things, not a wet lettuce liberal
Priceless. So you are confirming that you are never wrong and that you don't consider anyone else's views. I mean really. Because that is what I posted and you said yes to.
I have never come across anyone who would say that.
No, just generally Conservatives are more ideological and committed in their views and principles than the average LD like you, as to be fair are Labour supporters.
Excepting maybe their opposition to Brexit in 2019
Well I would dispute that as I have quite radical views on lots of stuff as are most active LDs (as opposed to supporters) and unlike Conservatives as, which the name implies, are conservative.
Radical and ideological are different concepts. I think we need some radical change, but that is not borne out of ideology and am happy to pick the best solution for a particular problem, which is sometimes from the right and sometimes from the left.
Having a SF first minister at Stormont may not make a lot of practical difference if the Unionists continue to spit the dummy. Nonetheless an important piece of symbolism. Having the FM oppose article 16 I'd quite significant two.
The Good Friday Agreement forced power sharing, but has entrenched a rather fossilised political divide. A dangerous can of worms to reopen, but needs doing at some point.
Starting point is schools. If we can't force unsegregated schools, at least encourage them. Perhaps a 20% funding premium for those whose children are less than 70% from both main faiths.
Faith schools are as much a matter of parental and religious choice in NI as in GB
I don't think these madrasas have serve the NI community very well.
Religious schools only work when no-one takes religion seriously.
Even then, I'm not sure. Groupthink enclosures do not make happy societies.
When no-one takes religion seriously then they aren't groupthink enclosures. My child went to a CofE primary, but neither of her parents are religious, and neither is she. I don't think we were asked about our religious observance when applying for a place there.
I think 'Russian Troll' is an overdetected condition as regards on here.
There have been 3 detected. All have been on the same compromises VPN. 2 have been banned. @Heathener remains because @rcs1000 wants it to be so.
Not quite right. Not the same VPN, just that her VPN occurs on a list of suspicious ones. The fact that her language skills are fine, with no obvious errors leads me to believe she is a native speaker. I wouldn’t be surprised to find that much of what she posts is true, at least partly. Lots of people have worked for things like GCHQ, I mean the buildings need cleaners, after all. She may passionately believe all she posts, but I doubt it. When she arrived she debuted with bullshit about the government planning new lockdowns in November 2021, which was patent nonsense. She was either gullible, or trying to wind people up. Juries out, for me.
She's most likely a fantasist - claims to have worked in intelligence, yet demonstrates none of the temperament, knowledge or insight that you'd expect from such (intelligence services would avoid like the plague anyone driven by their emotions who tries to make everything personal) - claims to have a mysterious contact in Westminster who needs 'protecting' from Robert seeing her IP address - it's all BS, part of an act to try and wind us all up just for the lolz.
She also lives in a mysterious and unspecified region where mask wearing, even outdoors, is still common and it is socially acceptable to loudly castigate and perhaps assault those who do not wear masks.
And every time she gets challenged about her dodgy IP ( which won't be from a reputable VPN) it's suddenly time to wash the dog or redecorate the spare room...
Completely agree with Mike on this. I laid Sunak several months back at a very good profit. The odds on Starmer remain very attractive.
Meanwhile across the Irish Sea it is beginning to look possible that Sinn Fein will win most seats in the Stormont elections on May 5th, meaning the first ever Sinn Fein First Minister of Northern Ireland. I was lampooned by a couple of people for suggesting this might happen but it's now a real possibility.
You can get 2/1 on a Irish unification before 01/01/24 with Betfair which I'm probably not tempted by as it's too soon (I think) but the chances of it happening in our lifetimes are immeasurably closer. I was told that this was no big deal. Well it is a big deal. A seismic shift in United Kingdom politics. The seeds of this go back a long way but there's no doubt that Boris Johnson's sell-out of Northern Ireland provides the immediate catalyst. He sacrificed the union for his own political aspirations.
2/1 on Irish unification seems rather short in that time frame. It is looking increasingly likely over time though.
Hmm. Current Tory attitude to Scottish indyref is "who cares if there is a majority of votes and seats for pro-indy, pro-referendum parties? We still say no, we won't let you even have a democratic referendum". Which will be that much harder to justify if the Nirish get one on exactly that basis. Unless they argue that NI is somehow different from the rest of the UK, which is precisely what they have been denying all along while mishandling this aspect of Brexit ...
It’s a poor error of judgement on their part and one, I suspect, they will come to regret as it will make Indy more, not less, likely.
No it won't.
Grant an indyref2 now and it would be at best 50% No 50% Yes.
Refuse an indyref2 now and that guarantees Scotland stays in the UK.
If there is an indyref2 it will be a Labour government reliant on SNP support who has to take the risk, as long as this Tory government remains in power it will never allow an indyref2 anyway
In the short term you get your wish in the medium term I think this makes Indy far more likely than 50/50.
No it doesn't, certainly from a Tory perspective as we will never grant an indyref2 we need to win anyway now.
If Labour get in and grant one then they would take the risk of losing it and have to hope the devomax etc they likely promise allows No to scrape home
Never is a long time and it was a Tory leader who granted the last one. Would it be such a disaster if one was held and yes won ? Far better to be good friends with Scotland than holding an increasingly unwilling nation in a union they increasingly want no part of as they see it being for their detriment.
You are doing the Nationalists work for them.
Weak appeasement. You are talking as if Yes is on 90% not barely 50% in current polls.
This government is rightly standing up to the Nationalists, they had their chance in 2014, they lost and they will not get another one while we Tories are in power. Tough.
The idea we would be good friends with an SNP led Scotland after independence too? Laughable. It would be a very bitter divorce which would make the current UK and EU relationship look friendly
If I’m honest I’m not really bothered if Scotland became a separate nation or not but I do think we could, and would, have a better relationship than now.
Absolutely not, before the Act of Union Scotland was England's oldest enemy after France.
If an indyref2 was granted and Scotland voted for independence it would be an extremely divisive relationship, not least with huge arguments over who has how much North Sea Oil, the military etc, questions over passports, Treasury funding etc.
It would be a bitter, bitter divorce and ramp up Nationalism even further on these islands. It would make Brexit and our EU relationship look friendly
I am greatly saddened that a southern right wing Englishman should have such disrespect for the Scots who are generous and wonderful people
You seem to want to act as some old time despot who expects subservience from their people, when in fact all you succeed in doing is increase resentment and the inevitability of independence
You do have a habit of pontificating from Epping Forest on all things from behind a keyboard, with no practical knowledge of many of the topics you speak about
I lived in Berwick from 1954 to 1960, Edinburgh from 1960 - 1964, and here in North Wales since
I married a Scot in 1964 and have an extensive Scottish family but like so many of the nation are divided over independence, but I can tell you that indyref 2 is eminently winnable and far better to make a case in the right circumstances and grant indyref2
You quote Boris, but it is known that you cannot rely on anything he says and he may have thrown away a 40 year line, but circumstances could evolve that it would be politically expedient for him to allow indyref 2.
I would also comment he cannot just say no if an official request is received from the Scottish Government as that would be down to the HOC, which of course at present would be unlikely to agree
Maybe a more temperate and positive attitude would do you no harm, indeed you may benefit from it
If Boris allowed an indyref2 and lost it, he would be out of No 10 the next day as Cameron was after he lost the EUref he allowed and he knows it, hence he can and will continue to refuse one.
Starmer would refuse indyref2 too if he could avoid needing the SNP to become PM
Boris does not have the power to stop it, nor does Starmer
If a request is received it is the HOC that will decide which currently would say no
Of course he does, he has a Tory majority of 80 which will vote one down and the UK government would have to propose one to Parliament first anyway.
Starmer could ignore the SNP too if Labour won most seats at the next general election
Another 2nd referendum is almost certain not to happen before 2026, 100% certain not to happen as long as Sturgeon is leader (as Wings over Scotland is arguing). I think Starmer does need to make a constructive offer to the SNP, maybe offering considerable extra powers or even going as far as devo max but does not have to bow to a 2nd referendum on the SNP's terms (or at least timing) when polls are 50/50.
Personally I'm more sympathetic to the idea of an Irish Unity referendum (even if it's likely to lose), which will slowly gain further impetus after 2025 if Mary Lou McDonald becomes Taoiseach then.
If Starmer becomes PM an indyref2 is more likely than not if he needs SNP support with some flexibility on precise timing. However he might use devomax as a vehicle to try and win it.
An Irish Unity referendum however is only likely if Nationalists win more MLAs than Unionists or if the Alliance change their current opposition to a border poll
I expect Nationalists to end up with possibly exactly the same the same no. of seats as Unionists (also counting 1/2 People before Profit MLAs as Nationalist) with Alliance the biggest winners potentially doubling their seats. The result itself won't itself change the narrative and will not really be materially different to last time. It's the boneheaded behaviour of the DUP by refusing to serve with a Sinn Fein FM and their behaviour over the protocol which is playing into nationalist hands.
I get the impression most Alliance voters don't proactively want a united Ireland but would be relaxed if it actually happened and there was proper outreach to unionists (excluding the real 'no surrender' ones).
Completely agree with Mike on this. I laid Sunak several months back at a very good profit. The odds on Starmer remain very attractive.
Meanwhile across the Irish Sea it is beginning to look possible that Sinn Fein will win most seats in the Stormont elections on May 5th, meaning the first ever Sinn Fein First Minister of Northern Ireland. I was lampooned by a couple of people for suggesting this might happen but it's now a real possibility.
You can get 2/1 on a Irish unification before 01/01/24 with Betfair which I'm probably not tempted by as it's too soon (I think) but the chances of it happening in our lifetimes are immeasurably closer. I was told that this was no big deal. Well it is a big deal. A seismic shift in United Kingdom politics. The seeds of this go back a long way but there's no doubt that Boris Johnson's sell-out of Northern Ireland provides the immediate catalyst. He sacrificed the union for his own political aspirations.
2/1 on Irish unification seems rather short in that time frame. It is looking increasingly likely over time though.
Hmm. Current Tory attitude to Scottish indyref is "who cares if there is a majority of votes and seats for pro-indy, pro-referendum parties? We still say no, we won't let you even have a democratic referendum". Which will be that much harder to justify if the Nirish get one on exactly that basis. Unless they argue that NI is somehow different from the rest of the UK, which is precisely what they have been denying all along while mishandling this aspect of Brexit ...
It’s a poor error of judgement on their part and one, I suspect, they will come to regret as it will make Indy more, not less, likely.
No it won't.
Grant an indyref2 now and it would be at best 50% No 50% Yes.
Refuse an indyref2 now and that guarantees Scotland stays in the UK.
If there is an indyref2 it will be a Labour government reliant on SNP support who has to take the risk, as long as this Tory government remains in power it will never allow an indyref2 anyway
In the short term you get your wish in the medium term I think this makes Indy far more likely than 50/50.
No it doesn't, certainly from a Tory perspective as we will never grant an indyref2 we need to win anyway now.
If Labour get in and grant one then they would take the risk of losing it and have to hope the devomax etc they likely promise allows No to scrape home
Never is a long time and it was a Tory leader who granted the last one. Would it be such a disaster if one was held and yes won ? Far better to be good friends with Scotland than holding an increasingly unwilling nation in a union they increasingly want no part of as they see it being for their detriment.
You are doing the Nationalists work for them.
Weak appeasement. You are talking as if Yes is on 90% not barely 50% in current polls.
This government is rightly standing up to the Nationalists, they had their chance in 2014, they lost and they will not get another one while we Tories are in power. Tough.
The idea we would be good friends with an SNP led Scotland after independence too? Laughable. It would be a very bitter divorce which would make the current UK and EU relationship look friendly
If I’m honest I’m not really bothered if Scotland became a separate nation or not but I do think we could, and would, have a better relationship than now.
Absolutely not, before the Act of Union Scotland was England's oldest enemy after France.
If an indyref2 was granted and Scotland voted for independence it would be an extremely divisive relationship, not least with huge arguments over who has how much North Sea Oil, the military etc, questions over passports, Treasury funding etc.
It would be a bitter, bitter divorce and ramp up Nationalism even further on these islands. It would make Brexit and our EU relationship look friendly
I am greatly saddened that a southern right wing Englishman should have such disrespect for the Scots who are generous and wonderful people
You seem to want to act as some old time despot who expects subservience from their people, when in fact all you succeed in doing is increase resentment and the inevitability of independence
You do have a habit of pontificating from Epping Forest on all things from behind a keyboard, with no practical knowledge of many of the topics you speak about
I lived in Berwick from 1954 to 1960, Edinburgh from 1960 - 1964, and here in North Wales since
I married a Scot in 1964 and have an extensive Scottish family but like so many of the nation are divided over independence, but I can tell you that indyref 2 is eminently winnable and far better to make a case in the right circumstances and grant indyref2
You quote Boris, but it is known that you cannot rely on anything he says and he may have thrown away a 40 year line, but circumstances could evolve that it would be politically expedient for him to allow indyref 2.
I would also comment he cannot just say no if an official request is received from the Scottish Government as that would be down to the HOC, which of course at present would be unlikely to agree
Maybe a more temperate and positive attitude would do you no harm, indeed you may benefit from it
If Boris allowed an indyref2 and lost it, he would be out of No 10 the next day as Cameron was after he lost the EUref he allowed and he knows it, hence he can and will continue to refuse one.
Starmer would refuse indyref2 too if he could avoid needing the SNP to become PM
Boris does not have the power to stop it, nor does Starmer
If a request is received it is the HOC that will decide which currently would say no
Of course he does, he has a Tory majority of 80 which will vote one down and the UK government would have to propose one to Parliament first anyway.
Starmer could ignore the SNP too if Labour won most seats at the next general election
Another 2nd referendum is almost certain not to happen before 2026, 100% certain not to happen as long as Sturgeon is leader (as Wings over Scotland is arguing). I think Starmer does need to make a constructive offer to the SNP, maybe offering considerable extra powers or even going as far as devo max but does not have to bow to a 2nd referendum on the SNP's terms (or at least timing) when polls are 50/50.
Personally I'm more sympathetic to the idea of an Irish Unity referendum (even if it's likely to lose), which will slowly gain further impetus after 2025 if Mary Lou McDonald becomes Taoiseach then.
If Starmer becomes PM an indyref2 is more likely than not if he needs SNP support with some flexibility on precise timing. However he might use devomax as a vehicle to try and win it.
An Irish Unity referendum however is only likely if Nationalists win more MLAs than Unionists or if the Alliance change their current opposition to a border poll
I expect Nationalists to end up with possibly exactly the same the same no. of seats as Unionists (also counting 1/2 People before Profit MLAs as Nationalist) with Alliance the biggest winners potentially doubling their seats. The result itself won't itself change the narrative and will not really be materially different to last time. It's the boneheaded behaviour of the DUP by refusing to serve with a Sinn Fein FM and their behaviour over the protocol which is playing into nationalist hands.
I get the impression most Alliance voters don't proactively want a united Ireland but would be relaxed if it actually happened and there was proper outreach to unionists (excluding the real 'no surrender' ones).
It is the Irish Sea border hitting the DUP, most Unionists oppose it and hence hardliners are moving to the TUV.
Alliance voters are generally soft Unionists who oppose a hard border in Ireland
HYUFD, one man wrecking crew against Cameron approach to detoxification of the Tory brand....
Highest Tory voteshare under Cameron? 37% in 2015.
Tory voteshare under Boris? 43.6% in 2019.
I campaigned for Cameron but he always appealed more to the liberal upper middle class than the bigger group of the lower middle class and skilled working class. Boris is the reverse
Lets see where they are at the next GE, 37% might be a pipe dream and luckily for the Tories your personal campaign to tell every floating voter to f##k off and vote for somebody else is currently restricted to a niche message board and local politics.
Completely agree with Mike on this. I laid Sunak several months back at a very good profit. The odds on Starmer remain very attractive.
Meanwhile across the Irish Sea it is beginning to look possible that Sinn Fein will win most seats in the Stormont elections on May 5th, meaning the first ever Sinn Fein First Minister of Northern Ireland. I was lampooned by a couple of people for suggesting this might happen but it's now a real possibility.
You can get 2/1 on a Irish unification before 01/01/24 with Betfair which I'm probably not tempted by as it's too soon (I think) but the chances of it happening in our lifetimes are immeasurably closer. I was told that this was no big deal. Well it is a big deal. A seismic shift in United Kingdom politics. The seeds of this go back a long way but there's no doubt that Boris Johnson's sell-out of Northern Ireland provides the immediate catalyst. He sacrificed the union for his own political aspirations.
2/1 on Irish unification seems rather short in that time frame. It is looking increasingly likely over time though.
Hmm. Current Tory attitude to Scottish indyref is "who cares if there is a majority of votes and seats for pro-indy, pro-referendum parties? We still say no, we won't let you even have a democratic referendum". Which will be that much harder to justify if the Nirish get one on exactly that basis. Unless they argue that NI is somehow different from the rest of the UK, which is precisely what they have been denying all along while mishandling this aspect of Brexit ...
It’s a poor error of judgement on their part and one, I suspect, they will come to regret as it will make Indy more, not less, likely.
No it won't.
Grant an indyref2 now and it would be at best 50% No 50% Yes.
Refuse an indyref2 now and that guarantees Scotland stays in the UK.
If there is an indyref2 it will be a Labour government reliant on SNP support who has to take the risk, as long as this Tory government remains in power it will never allow an indyref2 anyway
In the short term you get your wish in the medium term I think this makes Indy far more likely than 50/50.
Not an ounce of diplomacy or understanding, just a no or the tanks will be sent to Berwick
Same on all topics. Very black and white without consideration of other views. Also never contemplates the possibility of being wrong on anything, which makes confidence in any decision easier.
Yes because I am a Tory who believes in things, not a wet lettuce liberal
Priceless. So you are confirming that you are never wrong and that you don't consider anyone else's views. I mean really. Because that is what I posted and you said yes to.
I have never come across anyone who would say that.
No, just generally Conservatives are more ideological and committed in their views and principles than the average LD like you, as to be fair are Labour supporters.
Excepting maybe their opposition to Brexit in 2019
True now, but not so much in the past.
"Not very ideological" used to be one of the attractive features of Conservatism.
"There was something staggeringly tin-eared about the way Rishi chose to boast about his tax-cutting instincts at the very moment he was clobbering the British people with the biggest tax bombshell since Hugh Gaitskell was Chancellor."
It's a bit silly tbh. The NI raise had already been announced. So the main announcements of the mini budget were 5p a litre off fuel, a £3000 increase in allowances for NI meaning that 70% of the population were, at worst, no worse off as a result of the NI changes, an increase in the employers allowance for taking on a new worker and various insultation costs etc reduced to zero rated VAT. The bomb of the tax bombshell had already gone off.
None of that made the the aspiration of a penny off IT any less bizarre, however, when the government is clearly struggling to afford public spending and uncertainty is at a peak with the consequences of sanctions, a persistent pandemic, a real risk of an escalation of a war or, at the least, serious disruption amongst our major trading partners and inflation seriously out of control. The latter is going to mean huge pressure on both benefits and public sector pay. Saying we can afford a tax cut puts the government in a distinctly weird position in relation to that.
It's interesting that people are now assuming that Johnson had no say in Sunak's plans. Perhaps that is right but for a prime minister who likes to be the only big dog that is noteworthy.
You've not been paying attention. Boris has everything to do with Rishi's plans when they are popular. When Rishi has to do unpopular stuff, well, that's what you have a Chancellor for!
I haven't dug into the details but I see some interesting things in the statement. The tax rate bands are frozen. The NI one is being raised. This is significant. I've long wanted to see more income tax and less NI. Pensioners will start paying more tax in effect. It's the 1p cut that doesn't make much sense.
Equalising the rate bands is an interesting move. Opens the possibility for a simplification. Sunak's big problem is the economic headwinds that are blowing. Perhaps he could have done more for the poorest? But is that the priority for the Tory party.
The 1p cut makes plenty of sense if you're masquerading as a tax cutter whilst raising them to the highest levels for 70 years.
An interesting clip on Russian media, the truth cannot be hidden forever. What a criminal waste of young men. The body language of the wounded tells a tale:
Russian state television broadcasts footage of “special operation” veterans being awarded medals. They actually showed young men who’ve lost their limbs in the war. https://t.co/BRBCUvo2PK
Oh my. Only one of them has two legs to stand up on to receive his medal.
There is a lot of bitterness being created by this war. A lot hinges on where it ends up being directed.
Completely agree with Mike on this. I laid Sunak several months back at a very good profit. The odds on Starmer remain very attractive.
Meanwhile across the Irish Sea it is beginning to look possible that Sinn Fein will win most seats in the Stormont elections on May 5th, meaning the first ever Sinn Fein First Minister of Northern Ireland. I was lampooned by a couple of people for suggesting this might happen but it's now a real possibility.
You can get 2/1 on a Irish unification before 01/01/24 with Betfair which I'm probably not tempted by as it's too soon (I think) but the chances of it happening in our lifetimes are immeasurably closer. I was told that this was no big deal. Well it is a big deal. A seismic shift in United Kingdom politics. The seeds of this go back a long way but there's no doubt that Boris Johnson's sell-out of Northern Ireland provides the immediate catalyst. He sacrificed the union for his own political aspirations.
2/1 on Irish unification seems rather short in that time frame. It is looking increasingly likely over time though.
Hmm. Current Tory attitude to Scottish indyref is "who cares if there is a majority of votes and seats for pro-indy, pro-referendum parties? We still say no, we won't let you even have a democratic referendum". Which will be that much harder to justify if the Nirish get one on exactly that basis. Unless they argue that NI is somehow different from the rest of the UK, which is precisely what they have been denying all along while mishandling this aspect of Brexit ...
It’s a poor error of judgement on their part and one, I suspect, they will come to regret as it will make Indy more, not less, likely.
No it won't.
Grant an indyref2 now and it would be at best 50% No 50% Yes.
Refuse an indyref2 now and that guarantees Scotland stays in the UK.
If there is an indyref2 it will be a Labour government reliant on SNP support who has to take the risk, as long as this Tory government remains in power it will never allow an indyref2 anyway
In the short term you get your wish in the medium term I think this makes Indy far more likely than 50/50.
Not an ounce of diplomacy or understanding, just a no or the tanks will be sent to Berwick
Same on all topics. Very black and white without consideration of other views. Also never contemplates the possibility of being wrong on anything, which makes confidence in any decision easier.
Yes because I am a Tory who believes in things, not a wet lettuce liberal
Priceless. So you are confirming that you are never wrong and that you don't consider anyone else's views. I mean really. Because that is what I posted and you said yes to.
I have never come across anyone who would say that.
No, just generally Conservatives are more ideological and committed in their views and principles than the average LD like you, as to be fair are Labour supporters.
Excepting maybe their opposition to Brexit in 2019
True now, but not so much in the past.
"Not very ideological" used to be one of the attractive features of Conservatism.
Depends which leader, not under Derby or Salisbury or Thatcher or Hague, IDS and Howard for instance. Then even more so than Boris
Having a SF first minister at Stormont may not make a lot of practical difference if the Unionists continue to spit the dummy. Nonetheless an important piece of symbolism. Having the FM oppose article 16 I'd quite significant two.
The Good Friday Agreement forced power sharing, but has entrenched a rather fossilised political divide. A dangerous can of worms to reopen, but needs doing at some point.
Starting point is schools. If we can't force unsegregated schools, at least encourage them. Perhaps a 20% funding premium for those whose children are less than 70% from both main faiths.
Faith schools are as much a matter of parental and religious choice in NI as in GB
And should be banned in all parts of the UK.
Absolutely not, in fact I would open more of them. Faith schools generally get the best GCSE results of any state schools after grammar schools
Correlation is not causation. Indoctrination in whatever flavour of hocus pocus appeals to the bosses of the school does not result in higher grades.
An interesting clip on Russian media, the truth cannot be hidden forever. What a criminal waste of young men. The body language of the wounded tells a tale:
Russian state television broadcasts footage of “special operation” veterans being awarded medals. They actually showed young men who’ve lost their limbs in the war. https://t.co/BRBCUvo2PK
Oh my. Only one of them has two legs to stand up on to receive his medal.
There is a lot of bitterness being created by this war. A lot hinges on where it ends up being directed.
There was a senior army officer on the radio a few years back who said that the general UK public had simply no idea of the sheer number of soldiers coming back from Afghanistan with one or multiple limbs missing. Dat's war.
Having a SF first minister at Stormont may not make a lot of practical difference if the Unionists continue to spit the dummy. Nonetheless an important piece of symbolism. Having the FM oppose article 16 I'd quite significant two.
The Good Friday Agreement forced power sharing, but has entrenched a rather fossilised political divide. A dangerous can of worms to reopen, but needs doing at some point.
Starting point is schools. If we can't force unsegregated schools, at least encourage them. Perhaps a 20% funding premium for those whose children are less than 70% from both main faiths.
Faith schools are as much a matter of parental and religious choice in NI as in GB
I don't think these madrasas have serve the NI community very well.
Religious schools only work when no-one takes religion seriously.
Even then, I'm not sure. Groupthink enclosures do not make happy societies.
When no-one takes religion seriously then they aren't groupthink enclosures. My child went to a CofE primary, but neither of her parents are religious, and neither is she. I don't think we were asked about our religious observance when applying for a place there.
Completely agree with Mike on this. I laid Sunak several months back at a very good profit. The odds on Starmer remain very attractive.
Meanwhile across the Irish Sea it is beginning to look possible that Sinn Fein will win most seats in the Stormont elections on May 5th, meaning the first ever Sinn Fein First Minister of Northern Ireland. I was lampooned by a couple of people for suggesting this might happen but it's now a real possibility.
You can get 2/1 on a Irish unification before 01/01/24 with Betfair which I'm probably not tempted by as it's too soon (I think) but the chances of it happening in our lifetimes are immeasurably closer. I was told that this was no big deal. Well it is a big deal. A seismic shift in United Kingdom politics. The seeds of this go back a long way but there's no doubt that Boris Johnson's sell-out of Northern Ireland provides the immediate catalyst. He sacrificed the union for his own political aspirations.
2/1 on Irish unification seems rather short in that time frame. It is looking increasingly likely over time though.
Hmm. Current Tory attitude to Scottish indyref is "who cares if there is a majority of votes and seats for pro-indy, pro-referendum parties? We still say no, we won't let you even have a democratic referendum". Which will be that much harder to justify if the Nirish get one on exactly that basis. Unless they argue that NI is somehow different from the rest of the UK, which is precisely what they have been denying all along while mishandling this aspect of Brexit ...
It’s a poor error of judgement on their part and one, I suspect, they will come to regret as it will make Indy more, not less, likely.
No it won't.
Grant an indyref2 now and it would be at best 50% No 50% Yes.
Refuse an indyref2 now and that guarantees Scotland stays in the UK.
If there is an indyref2 it will be a Labour government reliant on SNP support who has to take the risk, as long as this Tory government remains in power it will never allow an indyref2 anyway
In the short term you get your wish in the medium term I think this makes Indy far more likely than 50/50.
No it doesn't, certainly from a Tory perspective as we will never grant an indyref2 we need to win anyway now.
If Labour get in and grant one then they would take the risk of losing it and have to hope the devomax etc they likely promise allows No to scrape home
Never is a long time and it was a Tory leader who granted the last one. Would it be such a disaster if one was held and yes won ? Far better to be good friends with Scotland than holding an increasingly unwilling nation in a union they increasingly want no part of as they see it being for their detriment.
You are doing the Nationalists work for them.
Weak appeasement. You are talking as if Yes is on 90% not barely 50% in current polls.
This government is rightly standing up to the Nationalists, they had their chance in 2014, they lost and they will not get another one while we Tories are in power. Tough.
The idea we would be good friends with an SNP led Scotland after independence too? Laughable. It would be a very bitter divorce which would make the current UK and EU relationship look friendly
If I’m honest I’m not really bothered if Scotland became a separate nation or not but I do think we could, and would, have a better relationship than now.
Absolutely not, before the Act of Union Scotland was England's oldest enemy after France.
If an indyref2 was granted and Scotland voted for independence it would be an extremely divisive relationship, not least with huge arguments over who has how much North Sea Oil, the military etc, questions over passports, Treasury funding etc.
It would be a bitter, bitter divorce and ramp up Nationalism even further on these islands. It would make Brexit and our EU relationship look friendly
I am greatly saddened that a southern right wing Englishman should have such disrespect for the Scots who are generous and wonderful people
You seem to want to act as some old time despot who expects subservience from their people, when in fact all you succeed in doing is increase resentment and the inevitability of independence
You do have a habit of pontificating from Epping Forest on all things from behind a keyboard, with no practical knowledge of many of the topics you speak about
I lived in Berwick from 1954 to 1960, Edinburgh from 1960 - 1964, and here in North Wales since
I married a Scot in 1964 and have an extensive Scottish family but like so many of the nation are divided over independence, but I can tell you that indyref 2 is eminently winnable and far better to make a case in the right circumstances and grant indyref2
You quote Boris, but it is known that you cannot rely on anything he says and he may have thrown away a 40 year line, but circumstances could evolve that it would be politically expedient for him to allow indyref 2.
I would also comment he cannot just say no if an official request is received from the Scottish Government as that would be down to the HOC, which of course at present would be unlikely to agree
Maybe a more temperate and positive attitude would do you no harm, indeed you may benefit from it
If Boris allowed an indyref2 and lost it, he would be out of No 10 the next day as Cameron was after he lost the EUref he allowed and he knows it, hence he can and will continue to refuse one.
Starmer would refuse indyref2 too if he could avoid needing the SNP to become PM
Boris does not have the power to stop it, nor does Starmer
If a request is received it is the HOC that will decide which currently would say no
Of course he does, he has a Tory majority of 80 which will vote one down and the UK government would have to propose one to Parliament first anyway.
Starmer could ignore the SNP too if Labour won most seats at the next general election
Another 2nd referendum is almost certain not to happen before 2026, 100% certain not to happen as long as Sturgeon is leader (as Wings over Scotland is arguing). I think Starmer does need to make a constructive offer to the SNP, maybe offering considerable extra powers or even going as far as devo max but does not have to bow to a 2nd referendum on the SNP's terms (or at least timing) when polls are 50/50.
Personally I'm more sympathetic to the idea of an Irish Unity referendum (even if it's likely to lose), which will slowly gain further impetus after 2025 if Mary Lou McDonald becomes Taoiseach then.
If Starmer becomes PM an indyref2 is more likely than not if he needs SNP support with some flexibility on precise timing. However he might use devomax as a vehicle to try and win it.
An Irish Unity referendum however is only likely if Nationalists win more MLAs than Unionists or if the Alliance change their current opposition to a border poll
I expect Nationalists to end up with possibly exactly the same the same no. of seats as Unionists (also counting 1/2 People before Profit MLAs as Nationalist) with Alliance the biggest winners potentially doubling their seats. The result itself won't itself change the narrative and will not really be materially different to last time. It's the boneheaded behaviour of the DUP by refusing to serve with a Sinn Fein FM and their behaviour over the protocol which is playing into nationalist hands.
I get the impression most Alliance voters don't proactively want a united Ireland but would be relaxed if it actually happened and there was proper outreach to unionists (excluding the real 'no surrender' ones).
I think Alliance voters know that if a United Ireland were to occur it would only be after a decade of it completing dominating politics to the exclusion of all else - just look at the years dominated by Brexit, or Scottish Independence - and they'd rather time and attention was directed towards other things. Plenty of other problems to deal with.
This is where the DUP refusing to serve under a SF First Minister would cause so much trouble for Unionism, because a collapsed Stormont can't deal with any of the normal political issues anyway. Irish unity and a vote on normal political issues at the Dail might start to look like a practical way to resolve the logjam.
Capital gains tax on the sale of residential properties seems to be a big political no no. But what if it was set at a fairly low rate? 5%? 10% max. It wouldn't bring in much money but it might have a positive psychological effect of people no longer seeing rising prices being purely a win. Maybe get rid of stamp duty at the same time - or at least raise it so it only affects the highest value properties.
Completely agree with Mike on this. I laid Sunak several months back at a very good profit. The odds on Starmer remain very attractive.
Meanwhile across the Irish Sea it is beginning to look possible that Sinn Fein will win most seats in the Stormont elections on May 5th, meaning the first ever Sinn Fein First Minister of Northern Ireland. I was lampooned by a couple of people for suggesting this might happen but it's now a real possibility.
You can get 2/1 on a Irish unification before 01/01/24 with Betfair which I'm probably not tempted by as it's too soon (I think) but the chances of it happening in our lifetimes are immeasurably closer. I was told that this was no big deal. Well it is a big deal. A seismic shift in United Kingdom politics. The seeds of this go back a long way but there's no doubt that Boris Johnson's sell-out of Northern Ireland provides the immediate catalyst. He sacrificed the union for his own political aspirations.
2/1 on Irish unification seems rather short in that time frame. It is looking increasingly likely over time though.
Hmm. Current Tory attitude to Scottish indyref is "who cares if there is a majority of votes and seats for pro-indy, pro-referendum parties? We still say no, we won't let you even have a democratic referendum". Which will be that much harder to justify if the Nirish get one on exactly that basis. Unless they argue that NI is somehow different from the rest of the UK, which is precisely what they have been denying all along while mishandling this aspect of Brexit ...
It’s a poor error of judgement on their part and one, I suspect, they will come to regret as it will make Indy more, not less, likely.
No it won't.
Grant an indyref2 now and it would be at best 50% No 50% Yes.
Refuse an indyref2 now and that guarantees Scotland stays in the UK.
If there is an indyref2 it will be a Labour government reliant on SNP support who has to take the risk, as long as this Tory government remains in power it will never allow an indyref2 anyway
In the short term you get your wish in the medium term I think this makes Indy far more likely than 50/50.
Not an ounce of diplomacy or understanding, just a no or the tanks will be sent to Berwick
Same on all topics. Very black and white without consideration of other views. Also never contemplates the possibility of being wrong on anything, which makes confidence in any decision easier.
Yes because I am a Tory who believes in things, not a wet lettuce liberal
Priceless. So you are confirming that you are never wrong and that you don't consider anyone else's views. I mean really. Because that is what I posted and you said yes to.
I have never come across anyone who would say that.
No, just generally Conservatives are more ideological and committed in their views and principles than the average LD like you, as to be fair are Labour supporters.
Excepting maybe their opposition to Brexit in 2019
True now, but not so much in the past.
"Not very ideological" used to be one of the attractive features of Conservatism.
Depends which leader, not under Derby or Salisbury or Thatcher or Hague, IDS and Howard for instance. Then even more so than Boris
Our current PM displays one of the most unpleasant features of Conservativ-, or possibly Tory-ism. If the leader is a showman, and therefore, temporarily at least a vote-winner, honesty and morality are immaterial.
Completely agree with Mike on this. I laid Sunak several months back at a very good profit. The odds on Starmer remain very attractive.
Meanwhile across the Irish Sea it is beginning to look possible that Sinn Fein will win most seats in the Stormont elections on May 5th, meaning the first ever Sinn Fein First Minister of Northern Ireland. I was lampooned by a couple of people for suggesting this might happen but it's now a real possibility.
You can get 2/1 on a Irish unification before 01/01/24 with Betfair which I'm probably not tempted by as it's too soon (I think) but the chances of it happening in our lifetimes are immeasurably closer. I was told that this was no big deal. Well it is a big deal. A seismic shift in United Kingdom politics. The seeds of this go back a long way but there's no doubt that Boris Johnson's sell-out of Northern Ireland provides the immediate catalyst. He sacrificed the union for his own political aspirations.
2/1 on Irish unification seems rather short in that time frame. It is looking increasingly likely over time though.
Hmm. Current Tory attitude to Scottish indyref is "who cares if there is a majority of votes and seats for pro-indy, pro-referendum parties? We still say no, we won't let you even have a democratic referendum". Which will be that much harder to justify if the Nirish get one on exactly that basis. Unless they argue that NI is somehow different from the rest of the UK, which is precisely what they have been denying all along while mishandling this aspect of Brexit ...
It’s a poor error of judgement on their part and one, I suspect, they will come to regret as it will make Indy more, not less, likely.
No it won't.
Grant an indyref2 now and it would be at best 50% No 50% Yes.
Refuse an indyref2 now and that guarantees Scotland stays in the UK.
If there is an indyref2 it will be a Labour government reliant on SNP support who has to take the risk, as long as this Tory government remains in power it will never allow an indyref2 anyway
In the short term you get your wish in the medium term I think this makes Indy far more likely than 50/50.
No it doesn't, certainly from a Tory perspective as we will never grant an indyref2 we need to win anyway now.
If Labour get in and grant one then they would take the risk of losing it and have to hope the devomax etc they likely promise allows No to scrape home
Never is a long time and it was a Tory leader who granted the last one. Would it be such a disaster if one was held and yes won ? Far better to be good friends with Scotland than holding an increasingly unwilling nation in a union they increasingly want no part of as they see it being for their detriment.
You are doing the Nationalists work for them.
Weak appeasement. You are talking as if Yes is on 90% not barely 50% in current polls.
This government is rightly standing up to the Nationalists, they had their chance in 2014, they lost and they will not get another one while we Tories are in power. Tough.
The idea we would be good friends with an SNP led Scotland after independence too? Laughable. It would be a very bitter divorce which would make the current UK and EU relationship look friendly
If I’m honest I’m not really bothered if Scotland became a separate nation or not but I do think we could, and would, have a better relationship than now.
Absolutely not, before the Act of Union Scotland was England's oldest enemy after France.
If an indyref2 was granted and Scotland voted for independence it would be an extremely divisive relationship, not least with huge arguments over who has how much North Sea Oil, the military etc, questions over passports, Treasury funding etc.
It would be a bitter, bitter divorce and ramp up Nationalism even further on these islands. It would make Brexit and our EU relationship look friendly
I am greatly saddened that a southern right wing Englishman should have such disrespect for the Scots who are generous and wonderful people
You seem to want to act as some old time despot who expects subservience from their people, when in fact all you succeed in doing is increase resentment and the inevitability of independence
You do have a habit of pontificating from Epping Forest on all things from behind a keyboard, with no practical knowledge of many of the topics you speak about
I lived in Berwick from 1954 to 1960, Edinburgh from 1960 - 1964, and here in North Wales since
I married a Scot in 1964 and have an extensive Scottish family but like so many of the nation are divided over independence, but I can tell you that indyref 2 is eminently winnable and far better to make a case in the right circumstances and grant indyref2
You quote Boris, but it is known that you cannot rely on anything he says and he may have thrown away a 40 year line, but circumstances could evolve that it would be politically expedient for him to allow indyref 2.
I would also comment he cannot just say no if an official request is received from the Scottish Government as that would be down to the HOC, which of course at present would be unlikely to agree
Maybe a more temperate and positive attitude would do you no harm, indeed you may benefit from it
If Boris allowed an indyref2 and lost it, he would be out of No 10 the next day as Cameron was after he lost the EUref he allowed and he knows it, hence he can and will continue to refuse one.
Starmer would refuse indyref2 too if he could avoid needing the SNP to become PM
Boris does not have the power to stop it, nor does Starmer
If a request is received it is the HOC that will decide which currently would say no
Of course he does, he has a Tory majority of 80 which will vote one down and the UK government would have to propose one to Parliament first anyway.
Starmer could ignore the SNP too if Labour won most seats at the next general election
Another 2nd referendum is almost certain not to happen before 2026, 100% certain not to happen as long as Sturgeon is leader (as Wings over Scotland is arguing). I think Starmer does need to make a constructive offer to the SNP, maybe offering considerable extra powers or even going as far as devo max but does not have to bow to a 2nd referendum on the SNP's terms (or at least timing) when polls are 50/50.
Personally I'm more sympathetic to the idea of an Irish Unity referendum (even if it's likely to lose), which will slowly gain further impetus after 2025 if Mary Lou McDonald becomes Taoiseach then.
If Starmer becomes PM an indyref2 is more likely than not if he needs SNP support with some flexibility on precise timing. However he might use devomax as a vehicle to try and win it.
An Irish Unity referendum however is only likely if Nationalists win more MLAs than Unionists or if the Alliance change their current opposition to a border poll
I expect Nationalists to end up with possibly exactly the same the same no. of seats as Unionists (also counting 1/2 People before Profit MLAs as Nationalist) with Alliance the biggest winners potentially doubling their seats. The result itself won't itself change the narrative and will not really be materially different to last time. It's the boneheaded behaviour of the DUP by refusing to serve with a Sinn Fein FM and their behaviour over the protocol which is playing into nationalist hands.
I get the impression most Alliance voters don't proactively want a united Ireland but would be relaxed if it actually happened and there was proper outreach to unionists (excluding the real 'no surrender' ones).
I think Alliance voters know that if a United Ireland were to occur it would only be after a decade of it completing dominating politics to the exclusion of all else - just look at the years dominated by Brexit, or Scottish Independence - and they'd rather time and attention was directed towards other things. Plenty of other problems to deal with.
This is where the DUP refusing to serve under a SF First Minister would cause so much trouble for Unionism, because a collapsed Stormont can't deal with any of the normal political issues anyway. Irish unity and a vote on normal political issues at the Dail might start to look like a practical way to resolve the logjam.
Remove the Irish Sea border and the issue is solved for the DUP.
Completely agree with Mike on this. I laid Sunak several months back at a very good profit. The odds on Starmer remain very attractive.
Meanwhile across the Irish Sea it is beginning to look possible that Sinn Fein will win most seats in the Stormont elections on May 5th, meaning the first ever Sinn Fein First Minister of Northern Ireland. I was lampooned by a couple of people for suggesting this might happen but it's now a real possibility.
You can get 2/1 on a Irish unification before 01/01/24 with Betfair which I'm probably not tempted by as it's too soon (I think) but the chances of it happening in our lifetimes are immeasurably closer. I was told that this was no big deal. Well it is a big deal. A seismic shift in United Kingdom politics. The seeds of this go back a long way but there's no doubt that Boris Johnson's sell-out of Northern Ireland provides the immediate catalyst. He sacrificed the union for his own political aspirations.
2/1 on Irish unification seems rather short in that time frame. It is looking increasingly likely over time though.
Hmm. Current Tory attitude to Scottish indyref is "who cares if there is a majority of votes and seats for pro-indy, pro-referendum parties? We still say no, we won't let you even have a democratic referendum". Which will be that much harder to justify if the Nirish get one on exactly that basis. Unless they argue that NI is somehow different from the rest of the UK, which is precisely what they have been denying all along while mishandling this aspect of Brexit ...
It’s a poor error of judgement on their part and one, I suspect, they will come to regret as it will make Indy more, not less, likely.
No it won't.
Grant an indyref2 now and it would be at best 50% No 50% Yes.
Refuse an indyref2 now and that guarantees Scotland stays in the UK.
If there is an indyref2 it will be a Labour government reliant on SNP support who has to take the risk, as long as this Tory government remains in power it will never allow an indyref2 anyway
In the short term you get your wish in the medium term I think this makes Indy far more likely than 50/50.
Not an ounce of diplomacy or understanding, just a no or the tanks will be sent to Berwick
Same on all topics. Very black and white without consideration of other views. Also never contemplates the possibility of being wrong on anything, which makes confidence in any decision easier.
Yes because I am a Tory who believes in things, not a wet lettuce liberal
Priceless. So you are confirming that you are never wrong and that you don't consider anyone else's views. I mean really. Because that is what I posted and you said yes to.
I have never come across anyone who would say that.
No, just generally Conservatives are more ideological and committed in their views and principles than the average LD like you, as to be fair are Labour supporters.
Excepting maybe their opposition to Brexit in 2019
Well I would dispute that as I have quite radical views on lots of stuff as are most active LDs (as opposed to supporters) and unlike Conservatives as, which the name implies, are conservative.
Radical and ideological are different concepts. I think we need some radical change, but that is not borne out of ideology and am happy to pick the best solution for a particular problem, which is sometimes from the right and sometimes from the left.
I was aware of that when I made the post. You weren't supposed to notice. I don't think HYUFD would have.
Having a SF first minister at Stormont may not make a lot of practical difference if the Unionists continue to spit the dummy. Nonetheless an important piece of symbolism. Having the FM oppose article 16 I'd quite significant two.
The Good Friday Agreement forced power sharing, but has entrenched a rather fossilised political divide. A dangerous can of worms to reopen, but needs doing at some point.
Starting point is schools. If we can't force unsegregated schools, at least encourage them. Perhaps a 20% funding premium for those whose children are less than 70% from both main faiths.
Faith schools are as much a matter of parental and religious choice in NI as in GB
And should be banned in all parts of the UK.
Absolutely not, in fact I would open more of them. Faith schools generally get the best GCSE results of any state schools after grammar schools
Correlation is not causation. Indoctrination in whatever flavour of hocus pocus appeals to the bosses of the school does not result in higher grades.
The Catholic girls 'grammar' school in the area where I grew up (in the 50's) had worse results than either of the state schools, Helen Mirren not withstanding. Nevertheless generally there is some truth in HYUFD's contention; I'd be interested in informed reasons.
Completely agree with Mike on this. I laid Sunak several months back at a very good profit. The odds on Starmer remain very attractive.
Meanwhile across the Irish Sea it is beginning to look possible that Sinn Fein will win most seats in the Stormont elections on May 5th, meaning the first ever Sinn Fein First Minister of Northern Ireland. I was lampooned by a couple of people for suggesting this might happen but it's now a real possibility.
You can get 2/1 on a Irish unification before 01/01/24 with Betfair which I'm probably not tempted by as it's too soon (I think) but the chances of it happening in our lifetimes are immeasurably closer. I was told that this was no big deal. Well it is a big deal. A seismic shift in United Kingdom politics. The seeds of this go back a long way but there's no doubt that Boris Johnson's sell-out of Northern Ireland provides the immediate catalyst. He sacrificed the union for his own political aspirations.
2/1 on Irish unification seems rather short in that time frame. It is looking increasingly likely over time though.
Hmm. Current Tory attitude to Scottish indyref is "who cares if there is a majority of votes and seats for pro-indy, pro-referendum parties? We still say no, we won't let you even have a democratic referendum". Which will be that much harder to justify if the Nirish get one on exactly that basis. Unless they argue that NI is somehow different from the rest of the UK, which is precisely what they have been denying all along while mishandling this aspect of Brexit ...
It’s a poor error of judgement on their part and one, I suspect, they will come to regret as it will make Indy more, not less, likely.
No it won't.
Grant an indyref2 now and it would be at best 50% No 50% Yes.
Refuse an indyref2 now and that guarantees Scotland stays in the UK.
If there is an indyref2 it will be a Labour government reliant on SNP support who has to take the risk, as long as this Tory government remains in power it will never allow an indyref2 anyway
In the short term you get your wish in the medium term I think this makes Indy far more likely than 50/50.
No it doesn't, certainly from a Tory perspective as we will never grant an indyref2 we need to win anyway now.
If Labour get in and grant one then they would take the risk of losing it and have to hope the devomax etc they likely promise allows No to scrape home
Never is a long time and it was a Tory leader who granted the last one. Would it be such a disaster if one was held and yes won ? Far better to be good friends with Scotland than holding an increasingly unwilling nation in a union they increasingly want no part of as they see it being for their detriment.
You are doing the Nationalists work for them.
Weak appeasement. You are talking as if Yes is on 90% not barely 50% in current polls.
This government is rightly standing up to the Nationalists, they had their chance in 2014, they lost and they will not get another one while we Tories are in power. Tough.
The idea we would be good friends with an SNP led Scotland after independence too? Laughable. It would be a very bitter divorce which would make the current UK and EU relationship look friendly
If I’m honest I’m not really bothered if Scotland became a separate nation or not but I do think we could, and would, have a better relationship than now.
Absolutely not, before the Act of Union Scotland was England's oldest enemy after France.
If an indyref2 was granted and Scotland voted for independence it would be an extremely divisive relationship, not least with huge arguments over who has how much North Sea Oil, the military etc, questions over passports, Treasury funding etc.
It would be a bitter, bitter divorce and ramp up Nationalism even further on these islands. It would make Brexit and our EU relationship look friendly
I am greatly saddened that a southern right wing Englishman should have such disrespect for the Scots who are generous and wonderful people
You seem to want to act as some old time despot who expects subservience from their people, when in fact all you succeed in doing is increase resentment and the inevitability of independence
You do have a habit of pontificating from Epping Forest on all things from behind a keyboard, with no practical knowledge of many of the topics you speak about
I lived in Berwick from 1954 to 1960, Edinburgh from 1960 - 1964, and here in North Wales since
I married a Scot in 1964 and have an extensive Scottish family but like so many of the nation are divided over independence, but I can tell you that indyref 2 is eminently winnable and far better to make a case in the right circumstances and grant indyref2
You quote Boris, but it is known that you cannot rely on anything he says and he may have thrown away a 40 year line, but circumstances could evolve that it would be politically expedient for him to allow indyref 2.
I would also comment he cannot just say no if an official request is received from the Scottish Government as that would be down to the HOC, which of course at present would be unlikely to agree
Maybe a more temperate and positive attitude would do you no harm, indeed you may benefit from it
If Boris allowed an indyref2 and lost it, he would be out of No 10 the next day as Cameron was after he lost the EUref he allowed and he knows it, hence he can and will continue to refuse one.
Starmer would refuse indyref2 too if he could avoid needing the SNP to become PM
Boris does not have the power to stop it, nor does Starmer
If a request is received it is the HOC that will decide which currently would say no
Of course he does, he has a Tory majority of 80 which will vote one down and the UK government would have to propose one to Parliament first anyway.
Starmer could ignore the SNP too if Labour won most seats at the next general election
Another 2nd referendum is almost certain not to happen before 2026, 100% certain not to happen as long as Sturgeon is leader (as Wings over Scotland is arguing). I think Starmer does need to make a constructive offer to the SNP, maybe offering considerable extra powers or even going as far as devo max but does not have to bow to a 2nd referendum on the SNP's terms (or at least timing) when polls are 50/50.
Personally I'm more sympathetic to the idea of an Irish Unity referendum (even if it's likely to lose), which will slowly gain further impetus after 2025 if Mary Lou McDonald becomes Taoiseach then.
If Starmer becomes PM an indyref2 is more likely than not if he needs SNP support with some flexibility on precise timing. However he might use devomax as a vehicle to try and win it.
An Irish Unity referendum however is only likely if Nationalists win more MLAs than Unionists or if the Alliance change their current opposition to a border poll
I expect Nationalists to end up with possibly exactly the same the same no. of seats as Unionists (also counting 1/2 People before Profit MLAs as Nationalist) with Alliance the biggest winners potentially doubling their seats. The result itself won't itself change the narrative and will not really be materially different to last time. It's the boneheaded behaviour of the DUP by refusing to serve with a Sinn Fein FM and their behaviour over the protocol which is playing into nationalist hands.
I get the impression most Alliance voters don't proactively want a united Ireland but would be relaxed if it actually happened and there was proper outreach to unionists (excluding the real 'no surrender' ones).
I think Alliance voters know that if a United Ireland were to occur it would only be after a decade of it completing dominating politics to the exclusion of all else - just look at the years dominated by Brexit, or Scottish Independence - and they'd rather time and attention was directed towards other things. Plenty of other problems to deal with.
This is where the DUP refusing to serve under a SF First Minister would cause so much trouble for Unionism, because a collapsed Stormont can't deal with any of the normal political issues anyway. Irish unity and a vote on normal political issues at the Dail might start to look like a practical way to resolve the logjam.
Remove the Irish Sea border and the issue is solved for the DUP.
Having a SF first minister at Stormont may not make a lot of practical difference if the Unionists continue to spit the dummy. Nonetheless an important piece of symbolism. Having the FM oppose article 16 I'd quite significant two.
The Good Friday Agreement forced power sharing, but has entrenched a rather fossilised political divide. A dangerous can of worms to reopen, but needs doing at some point.
Starting point is schools. If we can't force unsegregated schools, at least encourage them. Perhaps a 20% funding premium for those whose children are less than 70% from both main faiths.
Faith schools are as much a matter of parental and religious choice in NI as in GB
And should be banned in all parts of the UK.
Absolutely not, in fact I would open more of them. Faith schools generally get the best GCSE results of any state schools after grammar schools
Correlation is not causation. Indoctrination in whatever flavour of hocus pocus appeals to the bosses of the school does not result in higher grades.
The Catholic girls 'grammar' school in the area where I grew up (in the 50's) had worse results than either of the state schools, Helen Mirren not withstanding. Nevertheless generally there is some truth in HYUFD's contention; I'd be interested in informed reasons.
Correlation is usually a pretty good proxy for some causal relationship. I think the theory here is the sort of parents who put time and effort into being Christians also put time and effort into their own children, teaching them to read and write etc.
ETA whereas being *Catholic* correlates with being, NTPTFAPOI, Irish and similar, which might explain your finding in the other direction. I don't know if at that stage it also still correlated with thinking that reading was a black art out of reach of the laity and best left to the priests.
About that Swedish miracle thing.. Even Hancock & Johnson (they sound like a writing team for racist 1970s comedies) would have baulked at that. Probably.
About that Swedish miracle thing.. Even Hancock & Johnson (they sound like a writing team for racist 1970s comedies) would have baulked at that. Probably.
Good job the bloke responsible for the Swedish strategy hasn't been given an even more senior role...
The man who became the face of Sweden's no-lockdown pandemic policy, Anders Tegnell, is stepping down as chief epidemiologist to take up a role at the World Health Organization (WHO), the Swedish Health Agency said on Wednesday.
About that Swedish miracle thing.. Even Hancock & Johnson (they sound like a writing team for racist 1970s comedies) would have baulked at that. Probably.
Having a SF first minister at Stormont may not make a lot of practical difference if the Unionists continue to spit the dummy. Nonetheless an important piece of symbolism. Having the FM oppose article 16 I'd quite significant two.
The Good Friday Agreement forced power sharing, but has entrenched a rather fossilised political divide. A dangerous can of worms to reopen, but needs doing at some point.
Starting point is schools. If we can't force unsegregated schools, at least encourage them. Perhaps a 20% funding premium for those whose children are less than 70% from both main faiths.
Faith schools are as much a matter of parental and religious choice in NI as in GB
And should be banned in all parts of the UK.
Absolutely not, in fact I would open more of them. Faith schools generally get the best GCSE results of any state schools after grammar schools
Correlation is not causation. Indoctrination in whatever flavour of hocus pocus appeals to the bosses of the school does not result in higher grades.
The Catholic girls 'grammar' school in the area where I grew up (in the 50's) had worse results than either of the state schools, Helen Mirren not withstanding. Nevertheless generally there is some truth in HYUFD's contention; I'd be interested in informed reasons.
Correlation is usually a pretty good proxy for some causal relationship. I think the theory here is the sort of parents who put time and effort into being Christians also put time and effort into their own children, teaching them to read and write etc.
ETA whereas being *Catholic* correlates with being, NTPTFAPOI, Irish and similar, which might explain your finding in the other direction. I don't know if at that stage it also still correlated with thinking that reading was a black art out of reach of the laity and best left to the priests.
In a non-Irish context, parents at faith schools are more 'interested'? Depends on the faith of course; I understand some Jewish and Moslem schools are not very good.
Having a SF first minister at Stormont may not make a lot of practical difference if the Unionists continue to spit the dummy. Nonetheless an important piece of symbolism. Having the FM oppose article 16 I'd quite significant two.
The Good Friday Agreement forced power sharing, but has entrenched a rather fossilised political divide. A dangerous can of worms to reopen, but needs doing at some point.
Starting point is schools. If we can't force unsegregated schools, at least encourage them. Perhaps a 20% funding premium for those whose children are less than 70% from both main faiths.
Faith schools are as much a matter of parental and religious choice in NI as in GB
And should be banned in all parts of the UK.
Absolutely not, in fact I would open more of them. Faith schools generally get the best GCSE results of any state schools after grammar schools
Correlation is not causation. Indoctrination in whatever flavour of hocus pocus appeals to the bosses of the school does not result in higher grades.
The Catholic girls 'grammar' school in the area where I grew up (in the 50's) had worse results than either of the state schools, Helen Mirren not withstanding. Nevertheless generally there is some truth in HYUFD's contention; I'd be interested in informed reasons.
Correlation is usually a pretty good proxy for some causal relationship. I think the theory here is the sort of parents who put time and effort into being Christians also put time and effort into their own children, teaching them to read and write etc.
ETA whereas being *Catholic* correlates with being, NTPTFAPOI, Irish and similar, which might explain your finding in the other direction. I don't know if at that stage it also still correlated with thinking that reading was a black art out of reach of the laity and best left to the priests.
Basically, CofE-ness is more prevalent amongst the sharp elbowed middle classes.
max seddon @maxseddon · 1h Russian deputy defense minister Yunus-Bek Evkurov gave a soldier who lost a leg fighting in Ukraine a medal yesterday and told him: “I hope you’ll get back on your feet”
Completely agree with Mike on this. I laid Sunak several months back at a very good profit. The odds on Starmer remain very attractive.
Meanwhile across the Irish Sea it is beginning to look possible that Sinn Fein will win most seats in the Stormont elections on May 5th, meaning the first ever Sinn Fein First Minister of Northern Ireland. I was lampooned by a couple of people for suggesting this might happen but it's now a real possibility.
You can get 2/1 on a Irish unification before 01/01/24 with Betfair which I'm probably not tempted by as it's too soon (I think) but the chances of it happening in our lifetimes are immeasurably closer. I was told that this was no big deal. Well it is a big deal. A seismic shift in United Kingdom politics. The seeds of this go back a long way but there's no doubt that Boris Johnson's sell-out of Northern Ireland provides the immediate catalyst. He sacrificed the union for his own political aspirations.
2/1 on Irish unification seems rather short in that time frame. It is looking increasingly likely over time though.
Hmm. Current Tory attitude to Scottish indyref is "who cares if there is a majority of votes and seats for pro-indy, pro-referendum parties? We still say no, we won't let you even have a democratic referendum". Which will be that much harder to justify if the Nirish get one on exactly that basis. Unless they argue that NI is somehow different from the rest of the UK, which is precisely what they have been denying all along while mishandling this aspect of Brexit ...
It’s a poor error of judgement on their part and one, I suspect, they will come to regret as it will make Indy more, not less, likely.
No it won't.
Grant an indyref2 now and it would be at best 50% No 50% Yes.
Refuse an indyref2 now and that guarantees Scotland stays in the UK.
If there is an indyref2 it will be a Labour government reliant on SNP support who has to take the risk, as long as this Tory government remains in power it will never allow an indyref2 anyway
In the short term you get your wish in the medium term I think this makes Indy far more likely than 50/50.
No it doesn't, certainly from a Tory perspective as we will never grant an indyref2 we need to win anyway now.
If Labour get in and grant one then they would take the risk of losing it and have to hope the devomax etc they likely promise allows No to scrape home
Never is a long time and it was a Tory leader who granted the last one. Would it be such a disaster if one was held and yes won ? Far better to be good friends with Scotland than holding an increasingly unwilling nation in a union they increasingly want no part of as they see it being for their detriment.
You are doing the Nationalists work for them.
Weak appeasement. You are talking as if Yes is on 90% not barely 50% in current polls.
This government is rightly standing up to the Nationalists, they had their chance in 2014, they lost and they will not get another one while we Tories are in power. Tough.
The idea we would be good friends with an SNP led Scotland after independence too? Laughable. It would be a very bitter divorce which would make the current UK and EU relationship look friendly
If I’m honest I’m not really bothered if Scotland became a separate nation or not but I do think we could, and would, have a better relationship than now.
Absolutely not, before the Act of Union Scotland was England's oldest enemy after France.
If an indyref2 was granted and Scotland voted for independence it would be an extremely divisive relationship, not least with huge arguments over who has how much North Sea Oil, the military etc, questions over passports, Treasury funding etc.
It would be a bitter, bitter divorce and ramp up Nationalism even further on these islands. It would make Brexit and our EU relationship look friendly
I am greatly saddened that a southern right wing Englishman should have such disrespect for the Scots who are generous and wonderful people
You seem to want to act as some old time despot who expects subservience from their people, when in fact all you succeed in doing is increase resentment and the inevitability of independence
You do have a habit of pontificating from Epping Forest on all things from behind a keyboard, with no practical knowledge of many of the topics you speak about
I lived in Berwick from 1954 to 1960, Edinburgh from 1960 - 1964, and here in North Wales since
I married a Scot in 1964 and have an extensive Scottish family but like so many of the nation are divided over independence, but I can tell you that indyref 2 is eminently winnable and far better to make a case in the right circumstances and grant indyref2
You quote Boris, but it is known that you cannot rely on anything he says and he may have thrown away a 40 year line, but circumstances could evolve that it would be politically expedient for him to allow indyref 2.
I would also comment he cannot just say no if an official request is received from the Scottish Government as that would be down to the HOC, which of course at present would be unlikely to agree
Maybe a more temperate and positive attitude would do you no harm, indeed you may benefit from it
If Boris allowed an indyref2 and lost it, he would be out of No 10 the next day as Cameron was after he lost the EUref he allowed and he knows it, hence he can and will continue to refuse one.
Starmer would refuse indyref2 too if he could avoid needing the SNP to become PM
Boris does not have the power to stop it, nor does Starmer
If a request is received it is the HOC that will decide which currently would say no
Of course he does, he has a Tory majority of 80 which will vote one down and the UK government would have to propose one to Parliament first anyway.
Starmer could ignore the SNP too if Labour won most seats at the next general election
Another 2nd referendum is almost certain not to happen before 2026, 100% certain not to happen as long as Sturgeon is leader (as Wings over Scotland is arguing). I think Starmer does need to make a constructive offer to the SNP, maybe offering considerable extra powers or even going as far as devo max but does not have to bow to a 2nd referendum on the SNP's terms (or at least timing) when polls are 50/50.
Personally I'm more sympathetic to the idea of an Irish Unity referendum (even if it's likely to lose), which will slowly gain further impetus after 2025 if Mary Lou McDonald becomes Taoiseach then.
If Starmer becomes PM an indyref2 is more likely than not if he needs SNP support with some flexibility on precise timing. However he might use devomax as a vehicle to try and win it.
An Irish Unity referendum however is only likely if Nationalists win more MLAs than Unionists or if the Alliance change their current opposition to a border poll
I expect Nationalists to end up with possibly exactly the same the same no. of seats as Unionists (also counting 1/2 People before Profit MLAs as Nationalist) with Alliance the biggest winners potentially doubling their seats. The result itself won't itself change the narrative and will not really be materially different to last time. It's the boneheaded behaviour of the DUP by refusing to serve with a Sinn Fein FM and their behaviour over the protocol which is playing into nationalist hands.
I get the impression most Alliance voters don't proactively want a united Ireland but would be relaxed if it actually happened and there was proper outreach to unionists (excluding the real 'no surrender' ones).
I think Alliance voters know that if a United Ireland were to occur it would only be after a decade of it completing dominating politics to the exclusion of all else - just look at the years dominated by Brexit, or Scottish Independence - and they'd rather time and attention was directed towards other things. Plenty of other problems to deal with.
This is where the DUP refusing to serve under a SF First Minister would cause so much trouble for Unionism, because a collapsed Stormont can't deal with any of the normal political issues anyway. Irish unity and a vote on normal political issues at the Dail might start to look like a practical way to resolve the logjam.
Remove the Irish Sea border and the issue is solved for the DUP.
Hence the UK government will invoke Article 16
The idea of triggering A16 has been on the table for a while, and yet it hasn't happened.
At some point, we have to start asking why. Perhaps it doesn't do what ardent unionists want, or only at an unacceptable price.
max seddon @maxseddon · 1h Russian deputy defense minister Yunus-Bek Evkurov gave a soldier who lost a leg fighting in Ukraine a medal yesterday and told him: “I hope you’ll get back on your feet”
max seddon @maxseddon · 1h Russian deputy defense minister Yunus-Bek Evkurov gave a soldier who lost a leg fighting in Ukraine a medal yesterday and told him: “I hope you’ll get back on your feet”
max seddon @maxseddon · 1h Russian deputy defense minister Yunus-Bek Evkurov gave a soldier who lost a leg fighting in Ukraine a medal yesterday and told him: “I hope you’ll get back on your feet”
max seddon @maxseddon · 1h Russian deputy defense minister Yunus-Bek Evkurov gave a soldier who lost a leg fighting in Ukraine a medal yesterday and told him: “I hope you’ll get back on your feet”
max seddon @maxseddon · 1h Russian deputy defense minister Yunus-Bek Evkurov gave a soldier who lost a leg fighting in Ukraine a medal yesterday and told him: “I hope you’ll get back on your feet”
One of my uncles lost a leg in Normandy. 100% medical discharge. At the time of Suez he was called up for a medical 'to see if he was now fit'.
Turned up on his crutches.
Shame he wasn’t living in Ancient Greece - he could have served as a Hoplite.
His elder brother, my father, was absolutely incandescent; all for calling on the Press, his MP etc. Uncle was more philosophical; just made sure he had to go on crutches along a route where he could be seen.
Apparently afterwards he could hear the sergeant who was supervising the reception swearing for some time!
People get paid to write this uninformed rubbish....Morgan basically doesn't play the longer form of the game, let alone at test match level. A great ODI player because they can't bowl 6 balls at his throat, which he can't handle. And he has a dodgy back which I doubt would stand up to days in in the field.
If you think Scottish Nationalists don't see English Tories like me as the enemy, I would like to have some of what you are smoking!
I think even a lot of English Tories see you as the enemy.
I don’t see HYUFD as the enemy. He’s a purist Tory bookend - a Tory Dave Spart. Useful to understand all views that need to be considered in a coalition that both main parties at least have to be.
Sometimes the extremes - Corbynism and Hyufism can be ignored but interesting to see even if I disagree on the conditions to be a “True Tory”.
If you think Scottish Nationalists don't see English Tories like me as the enemy, I would like to have some of what you are smoking!
I think even a lot of English Tories see you as the enemy.
I don’t see HYUFD as the enemy. He’s a purist Tory bellbookend - a Tory Dave Spart. Useful to understand all views that need to be considered in a coalition that both main parties at least have to be.
Sometimes the extremes - Corbynism and Hyufism can be ignored but interesting to see even if I disagree on the conditions to be a “True Tory”.
Is Putin taking exit ramp and leaving Ukraine, we lift all our sanctions, UK policy?
I would say no, definitely not, for example what definition of leave ALL Ukraine?
So does it maintain signal of staunch sanction resolve Liz Truss floating this?
All Ukraine is exactly what it says: the internationally recognized borders of Ukraine.
To b fair it is somewhat of an artificial construct. By Stalin, if memory serves.
All countries are
Misha Glenny has done a lot of good radio programmes on BBC sounds called “the invention of…” about how many countries came about and absolutely agree they are all “artificial” constructs. Worth listening to.
Is Putin taking exit ramp and leaving Ukraine, we lift all our sanctions, UK policy?
I would say no, definitely not, for example what definition of leave ALL Ukraine?
So does it maintain signal of staunch sanction resolve Liz Truss floating this?
All Ukraine is exactly what it says: the internationally recognized borders of Ukraine.
How can “the internationally recognized borders of Ukraine” change from this point in time? Can Zelenskyy change them?
My point being, if Zelenskyy and Moscow redraw boundaries, backed up with some refs, Liz Trusses dropping all sanctions on Putin, dove tails with that?
About that Swedish miracle thing.. Even Hancock & Johnson (they sound like a writing team for racist 1970s comedies) would have baulked at that. Probably.
max seddon @maxseddon · 1h Russian deputy defense minister Yunus-Bek Evkurov gave a soldier who lost a leg fighting in Ukraine a medal yesterday and told him: “I hope you’ll get back on your feet”
One of my uncles lost a leg in Normandy. 100% medical discharge. At the time of Suez he was called up for a medical 'to see if he was now fit'.
Turned up on his crutches.
Shame he wasn’t living in Ancient Greece - he could have served as a Hoplite.
His elder brother, my father, was absolutely incandescent; all for calling on the Press, his MP etc. Uncle was more philosophical; just made sure he had to go on crutches along a route where he could be seen.
Apparently afterwards he could hear the sergeant who was supervising the reception swearing for some time!
max seddon @maxseddon · 1h Russian deputy defense minister Yunus-Bek Evkurov gave a soldier who lost a leg fighting in Ukraine a medal yesterday and told him: “I hope you’ll get back on your feet”
One of my uncles lost a leg in Normandy. 100% medical discharge. At the time of Suez he was called up for a medical 'to see if he was now fit'.
Turned up on his crutches.
Shame he wasn’t living in Ancient Greece - he could have served as a Hoplite.
His elder brother, my father, was absolutely incandescent; all for calling on the Press, his MP etc. Uncle was more philosophical; just made sure he had to go on crutches along a route where he could be seen.
Apparently afterwards he could hear the sergeant who was supervising the reception swearing for some time!
I blame Douglas Bader
The castles here were mainly garrisoned in peace time by ex British army invalids Regiment so as long as you could be a part of a team that could fire a cannon at least you could still have a “military” career.
They even held out and killed a few French at the battle of Jersey so I’m getting a Monty Python Black Knight vibe.
His strategy from day one has been to let his opponents (within Labour and outside) destroy themselves.
I said a few months ago that this was a high risk strategy but probably the only strategy he had. And he’s been very lucky in that it is now paying off.
I think we’re at this point now where Johnson won’t be replaced because nobody else is sufficiently more popular than him. I think Labour will be delighted to be up against him again.
Completely agree with Mike on this. I laid Sunak several months back at a very good profit. The odds on Starmer remain very attractive.
Meanwhile across the Irish Sea it is beginning to look possible that Sinn Fein will win most seats in the Stormont elections on May 5th, meaning the first ever Sinn Fein First Minister of Northern Ireland. I was lampooned by a couple of people for suggesting this might happen but it's now a real possibility.
You can get 2/1 on a Irish unification before 01/01/24 with Betfair which I'm probably not tempted by as it's too soon (I think) but the chances of it happening in our lifetimes are immeasurably closer. I was told that this was no big deal. Well it is a big deal. A seismic shift in United Kingdom politics. The seeds of this go back a long way but there's no doubt that Boris Johnson's sell-out of Northern Ireland provides the immediate catalyst. He sacrificed the union for his own political aspirations.
2/1 on Irish unification seems rather short in that time frame. It is looking increasingly likely over time though.
Hmm. Current Tory attitude to Scottish indyref is "who cares if there is a majority of votes and seats for pro-indy, pro-referendum parties? We still say no, we won't let you even have a democratic referendum". Which will be that much harder to justify if the Nirish get one on exactly that basis. Unless they argue that NI is somehow different from the rest of the UK, which is precisely what they have been denying all along while mishandling this aspect of Brexit ...
It’s a poor error of judgement on their part and one, I suspect, they will come to regret as it will make Indy more, not less, likely.
No it won't.
Grant an indyref2 now and it would be at best 50% No 50% Yes.
Refuse an indyref2 now and that guarantees Scotland stays in the UK.
If there is an indyref2 it will be a Labour government reliant on SNP support who has to take the risk, as long as this Tory government remains in power it will never allow an indyref2 anyway
In the short term you get your wish in the medium term I think this makes Indy far more likely than 50/50.
Not an ounce of diplomacy or understanding, just a no or the tanks will be sent to Berwick
Same on all topics. Very black and white without consideration of other views. Also never contemplates the possibility of being wrong on anything, which makes confidence in any decision easier.
Yes because I am a Tory who believes in things, not a wet lettuce liberal
Priceless. So you are confirming that you are never wrong and that you don't consider anyone else's views. I mean really. Because that is what I posted and you said yes to.
I have never come across anyone who would say that.
No, just generally Conservatives are more ideological and committed in their views and principles than the average LD like you, as to be fair are Labour supporters.
Excepting maybe their opposition to Brexit in 2019
True now, but not so much in the past.
"Not very ideological" used to be one of the attractive features of Conservatism.
Depends which leader, not under Derby or Salisbury or Thatcher or Hague, IDS and Howard for instance. Then even more so than Boris
My parents mostly voted Conservative in the belief that they were non-ideological and a natural party of government. They were a bit dubious about Heath and Thatcher was too much for them. My father went Liberal, my mother Labour when I was the candidate.
max seddon @maxseddon · 1h Russian deputy defense minister Yunus-Bek Evkurov gave a soldier who lost a leg fighting in Ukraine a medal yesterday and told him: “I hope you’ll get back on your feet”
One of my uncles lost a leg in Normandy. 100% medical discharge. At the time of Suez he was called up for a medical 'to see if he was now fit'.
Turned up on his crutches.
Shame he wasn’t living in Ancient Greece - he could have served as a Hoplite.
His elder brother, my father, was absolutely incandescent; all for calling on the Press, his MP etc. Uncle was more philosophical; just made sure he had to go on crutches along a route where he could be seen.
Apparently afterwards he could hear the sergeant who was supervising the reception swearing for some time!
I blame Douglas Bader
The castles here were mainly garrisoned in peace time by ex British army invalids Regiment so as long as you could be a part of a team that could fire a cannon at least you could still have a “military” career.
They even held out and killed a few French at the battle of Jersey so I’m getting a Monty Python Black Knight vibe.
Fortress troops were often, historically, those not up to mobile campaigning. Though on a number of occasions, poor training and morale meant that fortresses were lost far quicker than they might of been.
This is interesting, would like to see more of this. Tower blocks in Glasgow have gone through various revisions, originally the saviours of Gorbals dwellers (& seen as such by those folk), then sink holes for impoverished Glaswegians, now another revision seems in the pipeline. Getting away from knocking everything down & starting again would be a good move in any case I think.
Generally there seem to be very different attitudes to high rises. Paris (admittedly a city I hardly know) appears to see the banlieues as something to be forgotten about while Berlin seems to take some pride in them.
Travel anecdata from Ayrshire, the area with the second highest covid rates in Scotland. Very little mask wearing on the trains; practically none among those under 50. Only common amongst over 60 men, less, surprisingly, amongst women. About 50% on the bus, reflecting an older demographic; again only older people wearing masks. Young people are no longer bothering. Whether it’s the confusing messages, i.e. mostly English rules being advertised as covering the whole of the UK, or just people not caring, I’m not sure.
Is Putin taking exit ramp and leaving Ukraine, we lift all our sanctions, UK policy?
I would say no, definitely not, for example what definition of leave ALL Ukraine?
So does it maintain signal of staunch sanction resolve Liz Truss floating this?
All Ukraine is exactly what it says: the internationally recognized borders of Ukraine.
To b fair it is somewhat of an artificial construct. By Stalin, if memory serves.
All countries are
Misha Glenny has done a lot of good radio programmes on BBC sounds called “the invention of…” about how many countries came about and absolutely agree they are all “artificial” constructs. Worth listening to.
Alas I don't think I'll be able to access that since I don't have a TV license. But I would be interested if there's a way.
This is interesting, would like to see more of this. Tower blocks in Glasgow have gone through various revisions, originally the saviours of Gorbals dwellers (& seen as such by those folk), then sink holes for impoverished Glaswegians, now another revision seems in the pipeline. Getting away from knocking everything down & starting again would be a good move in any case I think.
Generally there seem to be very different attitudes to high rises. Paris (admittedly a city I hardly know) appears to see the banlieues as something to be forgotten about while Berlin seems to take some pride in them.
Back in 1991/2, a couple of tower blocks in the Bethnal Green area were stripped back to their steel frames and rebuilt. The aim was to make them 'better' to live in - someone suggested that was because all the 'problem' families had been moved out, and only 'good' ones would be moved back in.
I've always wondered how well the scheme turned out. I think they were somewhere near Bethnal Green swimming pool.
About that Swedish miracle thing.. Even Hancock & Johnson (they sound like a writing team for racist 1970s comedies) would have baulked at that. Probably.
Is Putin taking exit ramp and leaving Ukraine, we lift all our sanctions, UK policy?
I would say no, definitely not, for example what definition of leave ALL Ukraine?
So does it maintain signal of staunch sanction resolve Liz Truss floating this?
All Ukraine is exactly what it says: the internationally recognized borders of Ukraine.
To b fair it is somewhat of an artificial construct. By Stalin, if memory serves.
All countries are
Misha Glenny has done a lot of good radio programmes on BBC sounds called “the invention of…” about how many countries came about and absolutely agree they are all “artificial” constructs. Worth listening to.
Alas I don't think I'll be able to access that since I don't have a TV license. But I would be interested if there's a way.
iirc you need an account for BBC Sounds but not necessarily a television licence, what with it not being television. Go to BBC Sounds, create an account, and come back on here to tell me I'm an idiot if you do need a licence.
Is Putin taking exit ramp and leaving Ukraine, we lift all our sanctions, UK policy?
I would say no, definitely not, for example what definition of leave ALL Ukraine?
So does it maintain signal of staunch sanction resolve Liz Truss floating this?
All Ukraine is exactly what it says: the internationally recognized borders of Ukraine.
To b fair it is somewhat of an artificial construct. By Stalin, if memory serves.
All countries are
Misha Glenny has done a lot of good radio programmes on BBC sounds called “the invention of…” about how many countries came about and absolutely agree they are all “artificial” constructs. Worth listening to.
Alas I don't think I'll be able to access that since I don't have a TV license. But I would be interested if there's a way.
Is Putin taking exit ramp and leaving Ukraine, we lift all our sanctions, UK policy?
I would say no, definitely not, for example what definition of leave ALL Ukraine?
So does it maintain signal of staunch sanction resolve Liz Truss floating this?
All Ukraine is exactly what it says: the internationally recognized borders of Ukraine.
To b fair it is somewhat of an artificial construct. By Stalin, if memory serves.
All countries are
Misha Glenny has done a lot of good radio programmes on BBC sounds called “the invention of…” about how many countries came about and absolutely agree they are all “artificial” constructs. Worth listening to.
Alas I don't think I'll be able to access that since I don't have a TV license. But I would be interested if there's a way.
You don't need TV licence for the radio. Or if you do I'm a scofflaw.
Comments
Eg Dogs have four legs does not mean things with four legs are dogs
Otherwise I would be appeasing them
Face it, the Tory party today is far more like me than you
I have a couple of quid on The Worst Person in the World in original screenplay and international feature. It seems to have done well in mainstream cinemas in the USA.
Personally I'm more sympathetic to the idea of an Irish Unity referendum (even if it's likely to lose), which will slowly gain further impetus after 2025 if Mary Lou McDonald becomes Taoiseach then.
I have never come across anyone who would say that.
Excepting maybe their opposition to Brexit in 2019
Strongly disagree, but enemy no
An Irish Unity referendum however is only likely if Nationalists win more MLAs than Unionists or if the Alliance change their current opposition to a border poll
“If you take the King’s shilling you are beholden to the Crown.”
One might expect it to be another HYUFD quote but it is from one of his heroes instead.
A tycoon given the botched contract to build CalMac ferries, now more than £150 million over budget, claims the SNP rushed it through without normal safeguards for taxpayers because it wanted good publicity at its party conference.
In a damning report last week Audit Scotland, the watchdog, said it could not establish why ministers dropped a requirement for full repayment guarantees if the billionaire Jim McColl’s Ferguson yard failed to build the ships on time or went bust.
Having disregarded the advice of their procurement agency CMAL not to award him the work amid concern about the lack of guarantees, ministers have saddled taxpayers with a huge extra cost, with the ships five years behind schedule.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/snp-rushed-disastrous-calmac-ferry-deal-in-hope-of-pre-election-boost-bd7mdlpg9
Once it dawns that the GE is Muscly Man v Sanity Starmer the latter will be trading in the 3s.
Russian state television broadcasts footage of “special operation” veterans being awarded medals. They actually showed young men who’ve lost their limbs in the war. https://t.co/BRBCUvo2PK
Equalising the rate bands is an interesting move. Opens the possibility for a simplification. Sunak's big problem is the economic headwinds that are blowing. Perhaps he could have done more for the poorest? But is that the priority for the Tory party.
Tory voteshare under Boris? 43.6% in 2019.
I campaigned for Cameron but he always appealed more to the liberal upper middle class than the bigger group of the lower middle class and skilled working class. Boris is the reverse
It was the best state-funded primary in the city.
I get the impression most Alliance voters don't proactively want a united Ireland but would be relaxed if it actually happened and there was proper outreach to unionists (excluding the real 'no surrender' ones).
Alliance voters are generally soft Unionists who oppose a hard border in Ireland
"Not very ideological" used to be one of the attractive features of Conservatism.
There is a lot of bitterness being created by this war. A lot hinges on where it ends up being directed.
This is where the DUP refusing to serve under a SF First Minister would cause so much trouble for Unionism, because a collapsed Stormont can't deal with any of the normal political issues anyway. Irish unity and a vote on normal political issues at the Dail might start to look like a practical way to resolve the logjam.
Hence the UK government will invoke Article 16
ETA whereas being *Catholic* correlates with being, NTPTFAPOI, Irish and similar, which might explain your finding in the other direction. I don't know if at that stage it also still correlated with thinking that reading was a black art out of reach of the laity and best left to the priests.
Even Hancock & Johnson (they sound like a writing team for racist 1970s comedies) would have baulked at that. Probably.
https://twitter.com/chadstanton/status/1507687456434438146?s=20&t=G-cGnn2hjagmQPHvP0eSBg
I would say no, definitely not, for example what definition of leave ALL Ukraine?
So does it maintain signal of staunch sanction resolve Liz Truss floating this?
The man who became the face of Sweden's no-lockdown pandemic policy, Anders Tegnell, is stepping down as chief epidemiologist to take up a role at the World Health Organization (WHO), the Swedish Health Agency said on Wednesday.
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/architect-swedens-light-touch-covid-response-gets-job-who-2022-03-09/
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8514081/Number-prescriptions-drug-midazolam-doubled-height-pandemic.html
@maxseddon
·
1h
Russian deputy defense minister Yunus-Bek Evkurov gave a soldier who lost a leg fighting in Ukraine a medal yesterday and told him: “I hope you’ll get back on your feet”
https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1508016837346398211
At some point, we have to start asking why. Perhaps it doesn't do what ardent unionists want, or only at an unacceptable price.
At the time of Suez he was called up for a medical 'to see if he was now fit'.
Turned up on his crutches.
Uncle was more philosophical; just made sure he had to go on crutches along a route where he could be seen.
Apparently afterwards he could hear the sergeant who was supervising the reception swearing for some time!
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2022/mar/26/englands-big-reset-is-undermined-by-joe-root-the-third-class-captain
People get paid to write this uninformed rubbish....Morgan basically doesn't play the longer form of the game, let alone at test match level. A great ODI player because they can't bowl 6 balls at his throat, which he can't handle. And he has a dodgy back which I doubt would stand up to days in in the field.
Sometimes the extremes - Corbynism and Hyufism can be ignored but interesting to see even if I disagree on the conditions to be a “True Tory”.
But the people within those borders want to remain part of Ukraine, so there's no justification for arbitrarily moving the borders about again.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_history_of_Ukraine#/media/File:Ukraine-growth.png
My point being, if Zelenskyy and Moscow redraw boundaries, backed up with some refs, Liz Trusses dropping all sanctions on Putin, dove tails with that?
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-conducts-military-drills-isles-disputed-with-japan-media-2022-03-26/
I wonder what percentage of the remaining, effective Russian military has been diverted by this?
Interesting to note that the Japanese GDP is 3 times that of Russia....
They even held out and killed a few French at the battle of Jersey so I’m getting a Monty Python Black Knight vibe.
His strategy from day one has been to let his opponents (within Labour and outside) destroy themselves.
I said a few months ago that this was a high risk strategy but probably the only strategy he had. And he’s been very lucky in that it is now paying off.
I think we’re at this point now where Johnson won’t be replaced because nobody else is sufficiently more popular than him. I think Labour will be delighted to be up against him again.
The counter example would be the commanders of the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oscarsborg_Fortress - who trained their collection of pensioners and raw recruits into a formidable force in 1940.
"Most Tories like me also see the SNP as the enemy.
Face it, the Tory party today is far more like me than you"
You view everyone who hasn't voted Tory for their entire lifetime as an enemy.
Generally there seem to be very different attitudes to high rises. Paris (admittedly a city I hardly know) appears to see the banlieues as something to be forgotten about while Berlin seems to take some pride in them.
https://twitter.com/SustainableTall/status/1507639645148180481?s=20&t=G-cGnn2hjagmQPHvP0eSBg
Value in predicting the next chancellor?
* Cabinet allies of Johnson say Sunak is ‘privileged billionaire’
Gee. I wonder who is right?
I've always wondered how well the scheme turned out. I think they were somewhere near Bethnal Green swimming pool.
I have never agreed with the Swedish approach to COVID and especially reject the usage of the Swedish Example by those with an axe to grind.
The following is the deaths per million across a range of countries, sourced from https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths
Or if you do I'm a scofflaw.