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We have crossover in the “Next PM” betting – politicalbetting.com
We have crossover in the “Next PM” betting – politicalbetting.com
By any measure this has been a bad week for the Chancellor. His big statement and some basic PR stumbles have seen punters move away from the former hot favourite and Starmer now tops the market by default. Rishi simply hasn’t looked like Number 10 material with things like the ludicrous picture of him trying to fill up a small Kia car with petrol when it turned out that the shot was not new but taken some time ago.
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Meanwhile across the Irish Sea it is beginning to look possible that Sinn Fein will win most seats in the Stormont elections on May 5th, meaning the first ever Sinn Fein First Minister of Northern Ireland. I was lampooned by a couple of people for suggesting this might happen but it's now a real possibility.
You can get 2/1 on a Irish unification before 01/01/24 with Betfair which I'm probably not tempted by as it's too soon (I think) but the chances of it happening in our lifetimes are immeasurably closer. I was told that this was no big deal. Well it is a big deal. A seismic shift in United Kingdom politics. The seeds of this go back a long way but there's no doubt that Boris Johnson's sell-out of Northern Ireland provides the immediate catalyst. He sacrificed the union for his own political aspirations.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/03/26/boris-johnson-urged-trigger-article-16-expert-warns-irish-nationalists/
https://www.irishnews.com/news/northernirelandnews/2022/03/14/news/-big-shift-election-could-have-major-ramifications-for-stormont-and-constitutional-question-says-nicholas-whyte-2613702/
It’s still possible the Tories come to their senses before the GE.
I think Labour would be delighted to be up against Sunak who, as Mike illustrated, is a completely out of touch billionaire investment banker: about the least attractive profession during this terrible cost of living squeeze.
So if not Sunak, whom? Liz Truss would be made mincemeat. She's completely out of her depth, however much the Daily Express or Telegraph want to channel the spirit of Maggie through her.
To whom else could they turn? Michael Gove? Loathed by most people. Jeremy Hunt? Better but still loathed. Priti Patel? Loathed.
Who? With Sunak fading I can't see it happening now. They missed their chance and I'm convinced the people will punish them at the polls.
She can't meet everyone, of course.
https://twitter.com/brfootball/status/1507793774717681664?s=21&t=v3aJ5yol2uoEKb2QsI6sNQ
Shame your horse is losing
Most of Bozza's appointments have been freaks or weaklings so as to not be a threat to him personally.
Situations like now (lack of a plausible replacement saves Big Dog) help explain why.
So try to grow up and get a life.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/26/britain-clocks-go-forward-eu-us-hour-changes
They do make some good points. We play with clocks but perhaps the one we should pay more attention to is our body clock not online social or societal clocks? Is it just another means of control?
I believe that in Gulliver's Travels the Lilliputians thought his pocket watch was his god because he had told them that he consulted it before he did anything.
I have to agree Rishi failed to address mitigation for the poorest in our society and has attracted justifiable criticism, not least from within his own party
As far as Boris is concerned it does look more likely he will lead into GE24 though as others have suggested he may decide to move on if Ukraine and Russia make peace
Boris successor is entirely in the hands of his mps and the membership and as stated I will rejoin when Boris goes and support whoever is chosen
Of course opponents of the conservative party will put their own negative opinions on various candidates but to be fair that is no different to the same happening to labour from their opponents
I would suggest that no matter what happens to Boris, he will have the legacy of dealing with brexit, covid, and war in Europe all within 2 years of gaining office, major issues which are unrivalled in modern history
I would affirm also for those interested, for the first time I will not be voting for the conservative in May and expect a suitable comment from @ HYUFD on the grounds I was never a conservative anyway
I frequently mention Ben Fogle's New Lives in the Wild, to which I kind-of aspire. There's a particular favourite of mine with a chap called Mark in Ireland. Mark has stopped using timepieces altogether and lives by body clock according to day-night rhythmns.
Apart from when Mark goes to the pub, which somehow feels incongruous, it's an episode I really enjoy:
https://www.channel5.com/show/ben-fogle-new-lives-in-the-wild/season-13/episode-5
https://mobile.twitter.com/DuncanWeldon/status/1507412767707627520
In Rishi's case, we must also remember he was foisted on Boris when The Saj showed too much backbone for Dominic Cummings.
Job done. No further threats to his premiership.
Jeremy Hunt really isn't much liked. He may come across as cerebrally sensible but he's so stiff and when in cabinet he was the most disliked politician in Britian, and by some margin: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-hunt-is-the-most-disliked-frontline-british-politician-of-any-party-a-new-poll-shows-a6874846.html
I like Penny Mordaunt but can't see the Conservative Party being sensible enough to choose someone like her. And I don't think they will go for another woman for a while after their vicious treatment of Theresa May. (Waits for the old white men to pile on this comment!!!!!)
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/mar/27/trapped-and-destitute-how-foreign-nurses-uk-dreams-turned-sour
'The Institute for Human Rights and Business (IHRB), said that, as with all jobs, there was a “normal rate of attrition” involved with hiring from overseas that employers had to factor in. “Companies have to accept that as a business cost,” Neill Wilkins, head of the IHRB migrant workers programme said. “The British government’s own modern slavery statement says recruitment costs should be borne not by workers but by employers.”'
Heathener will be pleased.....
"She" is as subtle as a turd in a punchbowl.
So not only is Boris relatively secure as PM until the next general election, even if Starmer is still narrow favourite to win that general election, Sunak also faces a threat from Ben Wallace now as well as Truss to be next Tory leader
Der Putin ist wie ein Kinderhemd---kurz und beschissen.
That automatically gives the NI Secretary grounds to refuse a border poll.
In terms of Scotland Nationalist parties ie the SNP and Green may have a majority at Holyrood unlike Nationalist parties at Stormont but the UK government can refuse an indyref2 without needing any grounds under the Scotland Act 1998, as this Tory government will continue to do. The GFA terms do not apply to Scotland
https://twitter.com/ShaunLintern/status/1507791242381475848?t=BBnwihd1A1VuH-5bJZxLQw&s=19
The rest of that twitter thread is very interesting too. The number of maternity scandals across Britain has always suggested a systemic problem. Part of this was the drive to lowers caesarian rates. The financial penalties for having a high caesarian rate were introduced by Alan Milburn in 2002.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2002/jan/20/health.publicservices
I left the Labour Party in the early noughties for two reasons. Blair's warmongering, but also Milburn's target culture distorting good medical practice.
A lot of that target culture distorting practice has become so normalised in the NHS that only us old codgers remember the time before, when clinical decision making was the norm.
As for NI, only last week a bomb threat was made by the loyalist UVF against Simon Coveney, the Irish Foreign Minister, on his visit to Belfast last week. While obviously that should be condemned, the idea loyalists in Unionist dominated areas of NI like East Belfast and East Londonderry and county Antrim will peacefully settle into a United Ireland is absurd. It would just be the Troubles all over again, except mainly from the loyalist rather than nationalist side.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-60875251
Hence Boris is considering invoking Article 16, as too much effort was made in the trade talks on the EU side on appeasing nationalists with no hard border in Ireland while ignoring loyalists who did not want a border in the Irish Sea
Enough of appeasement of the SNP, this Tory government is rightly ignoring them!
Betting PostFPT:
F1: contemplated a lot of potential bets, but in the end went for Alpine to double score at 1.83.
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2022/03/saudi-arabia-pre-race-2022.html
Wilson, Heath, Callaghan, Blair, Major and Cameron and May as you say saw everyones incomes grow over their premierships.
Though the biggest growth for everyone was Thatcher 1983-1987 and Blair 1997 to 2001, although Thatcher saw more of that growth go to the rich and Blair saw more of it go to the poor.
Grant an indyref2 now and it would be at best 50% No 50% Yes.
Refuse an indyref2 now and that guarantees Scotland stays in the UK.
If there is an indyref2 it will be a Labour government reliant on SNP support who has to take the risk, as long as this Tory government remains in power it will never allow an indyref2 anyway
It gives lighter evenings for us to enjoy when we can, after work, instead of spilling it in the small hours when hardly anyone is awake.
In the short term you get your wish in the medium term I think this makes Indy far more likely than 50/50.
Seems more likely to me that whatever we choose to think about his values, on a personal level at least he doesnt care about race or gender when choosing ministers - he cares about loyalty.
If Labour get in and grant one then they would take the risk of losing it and have to hope the devomax etc they likely promise allows No to scrape home
The main movement in NI polls is to the TUV, Alliance and UUP, not SF.
The DUP, SF and SDLP are all down on the last Stormont election, just the DUP down most
The Scots had a chance to go for independence in 2014 - and yet chose not to take it.
So much democracy.
That's not how the Scottish Tories are campaigning.
I don’t believe her nonsense about ‘protecting someone in power’, so the dogs IP must be an issue, but hey, who knows.
They interviewed former cricketer Stuart Meaker who is in Poland helping Ukrainian refugees with their visa applications, and he's not happy about the UK government policy and failings. He said he didn't want to get political, but there's no hiding from what isn't being done. Still 5-10 days for decisions on visa applications.
A shameful situation.
Makes read through political comparisons somewhat difficult.
Suspect there is a far greater variation in individuals' outcomes within those cohort than previously, too.
Indyref2 it is clear will only ever happen now with a UK Labour government reliant on SNP support and if they allow it it will be on them to win it
The Scottish Tories will do what they want to maximise their vote, it is the UK Government under Boris which will be doing the refusal of indyref2 whatever happens in Scotland