Tonight’s approval and best PM numbers from Opinium – politicalbetting.com
.@RishiSunak's approval rating is at an all-time low. > At the Budget in 2021 48% approved of the job he was doin, while 24% approved.> Now, 35% disapprove of the job he is doing, while only 31% approve. pic.twitter.com/Y9CxYCOT5b
The odd think looking at the Rishi graph is how gradual his decline looks. It's not that he was doing great and then suddenly became unpopular, it 's more that he has been shedding respect for quite a while without anyone really noticing.
A bit like the gentle Con-to-Lab swing that started last summer. Not driven by events or scandals (you can see the spikes when they enter and leave public conciousness) but just happening.
Whoever works out how sticky that drift is, how far it will go and what to do about it will win.
The odd think looking at the Rishi graph is how gradual his decline looks. It's not that he was doing great and then suddenly became unpopular, it 's more that he has been shedding respect for quite a while without anyone really noticing.
A bit like the gentle Con-to-Lab swing that started last summer. Not driven by events or scandals (you can see the spikes when they enter and leave public conciousness) but just happening.
Whoever works out how sticky that drift is, how far it will go and what to do about it will win.
The figures say that people are increasingly having no opinion about Mr Sunak. Perhaps he'll just slip out of our consciousness. Gradually.
First....as in to say on this thread England cricket are total embarrassment.
FPT. English cricket authorities either don’t understand the difference between test and county cricket and the limited overs stuff, don’t care, or want rid of the long game because it doesn’t raise enough TV revenue. If people want to see a result in a couple of hours, let them watch rounders. Some of us appreciate the subtlety of test and county cricket. Alas, we seem to be an endangered minority. 😟
The odd think looking at the Rishi graph is how gradual his decline looks. It's not that he was doing great and then suddenly became unpopular, it 's more that he has been shedding respect for quite a while without anyone really noticing.
A bit like the gentle Con-to-Lab swing that started last summer. Not driven by events or scandals (you can see the spikes when they enter and leave public conciousness) but just happening.
Whoever works out how sticky that drift is, how far it will go and what to do about it will win.
It's easy being popular when standing at the bar, buying the drinks. Less so when you tell people it's their turn to pay.
That's genuinely frightening. If this is the mindset in the Kremlin I am not seeing any good ways out of this.
It is also, of course, complete nonsense. Was losing in Vietnam the end of the American state? Or Afghanistan? The thinking is that if Russia is not a big scary military power it is nothing at all. It really doesn't need to be like that.
So, another Biden gaffe? Or deliberately timed to sow doubt and confusion amongst Putin's dwindling band of strategists?
I think it was a gaffe. The sort of thing he might have said to a Russian friend at a bar.
You can understand the frustration and the sentiment, but, I guess his spokesmen are getting used to clarifying this sort of thing after the event. It reminds me of his, "Will you shut up man" in the debate with Trump.
That's genuinely frightening. If this is the mindset in the Kremlin I am not seeing any good ways out of this.
It is also, of course, complete nonsense. Was losing in Vietnam the end of the American state? Or Afghanistan? The thinking is that if Russia is not a big scary military power it is nothing at all. It really doesn't need to be like that.
yes, the idea that you need to be able to frighten NATO or anybody to be a 'state' is silly. I don't know anybody who tells me they are frightened of the State of Switzerland or New Zealand. but they are both recognised as states safe and quite happy as far as I can tell.
Perhaps its might be the end of The Putin Government, but that's because all that Putin has is Fear, nobody (well almost nobody) like, respects, or is impressed by Putin, but lots of people fear Putin, both inside and outside of Russia.
Incidentally do we know who was the chap on the TV clip?
"Chaos as Joe Biden says Vladimir Putin ‘cannot remain in power’ US policy in disarray as White House is forced to row back president’s call for Russian leader to be removed"
"Chaos as Joe Biden says Vladimir Putin ‘cannot remain in power’ US policy in disarray as White House is forced to row back president’s call for Russian leader to be removed"
So, another Biden gaffe? Or deliberately timed to sow doubt and confusion amongst Putin's dwindling band of strategists?
I think it was a gaffe. The sort of thing he might have said to a Russian friend at a bar.
You can understand the frustration and the sentiment, but, I guess his spokesmen are getting used to clarifying this sort of thing after the event. It reminds me of his, "Will you shut up man" in the debate with Trump.
I dunno. One of the criticisms of the Trump brigade is Putin would not have done any of this under the Orange One because you could never read him and anything could happen. So maybe Biden is trying a bit of that?
That's genuinely frightening. If this is the mindset in the Kremlin I am not seeing any good ways out of this.
It is also, of course, complete nonsense. Was losing in Vietnam the end of the American state? Or Afghanistan? The thinking is that if Russia is not a big scary military power it is nothing at all. It really doesn't need to be like that.
I don't think Afghanistan or even Vietnam would quite compare to this. After Saigon the US remained the premier power in the world. When was the last time a great power self immolated in this fashion? Germany with Operation Barbarossa? Maybe but that took four years. Russian prestige will be decimated if they can't turn things around.
Internal collapse of Russia would be the extreme outcome but several warning signs are there. A weakening autocratic state, financial chaos, military debacle with large numbers of angry grieving mothers and ex servicemen.
That's genuinely frightening. If this is the mindset in the Kremlin I am not seeing any good ways out of this.
It is also, of course, complete nonsense. Was losing in Vietnam the end of the American state? Or Afghanistan? The thinking is that if Russia is not a big scary military power it is nothing at all. It really doesn't need to be like that.
I don't think Afghanistan or even Vietnam would quite compare to this. After Saigon the US remained the premier power in the world. When was the last time a great power self immolated in this fashion? Germany with Operation Barbarossa? Maybe but that took four years. Russian prestige will be decimated if they can't turn things around.
Internal collapse of Russia would be the extreme outcome but several warning signs are there. A weakening autocratic state, financial chaos, military debacle with large numbers of angry grieving mothers and ex servicemen.
I’ve mentioned since the beginning that the idea Russia has months to win this was a fallacy. The timeline was more like a few weeks. There are clear signs things are coming off the wheels - when troops run over their commander and your security forces refuse to be sent into action, a regime is in trouble.
FWIW, I think the most likely endgame here is an internal coup. Biden’s comments today - shambolic as they are - is likely to reinforce the idea amongst more than a few in Russia that sanctions will stay if Putin remains in power and so he needs to go. I think that’s more likely than chemical / nuclear war.
"Chaos as Joe Biden says Vladimir Putin ‘cannot remain in power’ US policy in disarray as White House is forced to row back president’s call for Russian leader to be removed"
They've peaked at about 270ish deaths per day - that's the UK equivalent of 2500 a day
Why on earth didn't they make sure that a high percentage of elderly people got vaccinated? Mindboggling.
The Chinese state prioritised their crap domestic vaccines and taking advantage of the pandemic to crush the democratic opposition in Hong Kong, trashing any chance that the population would trust the government had their best interests at heart.
In those circumstances would you trust the Chinese state and accept their Covid vaccine?
That's genuinely frightening. If this is the mindset in the Kremlin I am not seeing any good ways out of this.
It is also, of course, complete nonsense. Was losing in Vietnam the end of the American state? Or Afghanistan? The thinking is that if Russia is not a big scary military power it is nothing at all. It really doesn't need to be like that.
Oddly enough, Vietnam and Afghanistan did produce significant cultural, political, social and psychological impacts in both America and Russia respectively. Call it a "crise de coeur" if you like but both states found themselves asking some hard questions after their respective experiences.
The nearest British experience would be Suez and it's prescient to argue what would have happened had the attempt to recapture the Falklands failed 40 years ago? States function on a degree of self-belief or self-confidence irrespective of how well or badly things are actually going - look at Ukraine, immense damage, lives lost yet their self-belief is unshaken as was ours under the Blitz.
They've peaked at about 270ish deaths per day - that's the UK equivalent of 2500 a day
Why on earth didn't they make sure that a high percentage of elderly people got vaccinated? Mindboggling.
Also they are using Chinese vaccines. Even the one that kinda of worked, doesn't work very well against Delta and Omicron and its wanes really quickly.
That's genuinely frightening. If this is the mindset in the Kremlin I am not seeing any good ways out of this.
It is also, of course, complete nonsense. Was losing in Vietnam the end of the American state? Or Afghanistan? The thinking is that if Russia is not a big scary military power it is nothing at all. It really doesn't need to be like that.
The difference is that the Kremlin autocrats think of Ukraine as a fundamental part of their empire. Russia for them equals the Russian empire.
They've peaked at about 270ish deaths per day - that's the UK equivalent of 2500 a day
What are HK vaccination rates like? Did they use the dodgy Chinese vax?
Six months out from jab 3, has Boris Johnson beaten Covid here or could we be up S*** Street shortly with waning immunity?
Asking for a friend.
The rise in cases has packed for this wave, (or will in next for days) and 4th Jab of good quality are available.
Also worth noting that with 1 in 11 scots having the virus a week ago, maybe slightly more now, the hospitals are still not overflowing. there are now less than 1% of the adult population that do not have some sort of protection in there immune system.
"Chaos as Joe Biden says Vladimir Putin ‘cannot remain in power’ US policy in disarray as White House is forced to row back president’s call for Russian leader to be removed"
It's an obvious truth that everyone is thinking. The only question is when and how, and how many die with him.
It's a truth, but it's not the sort of thing the leader of one nuclear-armed state should say about the leader of another nuclear-armed state while sending bucketloads of weapons to the country that are turning the other leader's army into scrap metal.
They've peaked at about 270ish deaths per day - that's the UK equivalent of 2500 a day
Why on earth didn't they make sure that a high percentage of elderly people got vaccinated? Mindboggling.
The Chinese state prioritised their crap domestic vaccines and taking advantage of the pandemic to crush the democratic opposition in Hong Kong, trashing any chance that the population would trust the government had their best interests at heart.
In those circumstances would you trust the Chinese state and accept their Covid vaccine?
Relatedly, according to this recent story 100,000 Hong Kongers have applied to move to Britain in the last year. The gov predicted 300-500k over 5 years, so that would meet expectations. The more the merrier.
They've peaked at about 270ish deaths per day - that's the UK equivalent of 2500 a day
What are HK vaccination rates like? Did they use the dodgy Chinese vax?
Six months out from jab 3, has Boris Johnson beaten Covid here or could we be up S*** Street shortly with waning immunity?
Asking for a friend.
We’ve got 99% of adults with antibodies from one of a number of sources. We are currently seeing a wave from omicron BA2 which is pretty able to infect those who have antibodies from vaccination and previous variants, but is usually not fatal in those with antibodies. With the numbers infected we will be getting a massive immunity boost against omicron, and cases will start to fall soon, and likely quite rapidly. Then we wait for the next variant, but tbh most people in the U.K. have now experienced Covid, survived and have lost the fear that was present, and sensible, pre vaccination. Over 40, you were taking a step into the unknown pre vaccines, now the odds are a lot better. Life is surely still tough in hospitals, and for those who are more at risk, but things in the U.K. are not bad right now.
"Chaos as Joe Biden says Vladimir Putin ‘cannot remain in power’ US policy in disarray as White House is forced to row back president’s call for Russian leader to be removed"
It's an obvious truth that everyone is thinking. The only question is when and how, and how many die with him.
It's a truth, but it's not the sort of thing the leader of one nuclear-armed state should say about the leader of another nuclear-armed state while sending bucketloads of weapons to the country that are turning the other leader's army into scrap metal.
Yes, the weirdness of international relations. Think of how many leaders we'd like to say something like that o, but it'd just not the done thing.
They've peaked at about 270ish deaths per day - that's the UK equivalent of 2500 a day
What are HK vaccination rates like? Did they use the dodgy Chinese vax?
Six months out from jab 3, has Boris Johnson beaten Covid here or could we be up S*** Street shortly with waning immunity?
Asking for a friend.
The rise in cases has packed for this wave, (or will in next for days) and 4th Jab of good quality are available.
Also worth noting that with 1 in 11 scots having the virus a week ago, maybe slightly more now, the hospitals are still not overflowing. there are now less than 1% of the adult population that do not have some sort of protection in there immune system.
The majority of people are still choosing the Chinese Sinovac. Its not very good against Delta and Omicron.
"Chaos as Joe Biden says Vladimir Putin ‘cannot remain in power’ US policy in disarray as White House is forced to row back president’s call for Russian leader to be removed"
It's an obvious truth that everyone is thinking. The only question is when and how, and how many die with him.
Not sure that is true. If his grip on power is sufficient and he can spin some kind of peace deal with Ukr where he gets crimea and donbass bits as a triumph against JK Rowling or whatever, then he survives. At least for a while.
It will take a long time for RU military to recover from this humiliation so unless Vlad has really gone totally nuts, east Europe has time to rearm. Which it must do. In spades.
Incidentally, one of the most crap things about Sunak's appalling budget was no increase in defence spending. Madness.
At end of Caribbean tour, Prince William pomises to “reflect” on lessons learned and hints that the next Head of the Commonwealth should *not be a member of the Royal Family.
"Chaos as Joe Biden says Vladimir Putin ‘cannot remain in power’ US policy in disarray as White House is forced to row back president’s call for Russian leader to be removed"
It's an obvious truth that everyone is thinking. The only question is when and how, and how many die with him.
Not sure that is true. If his grip on power is sufficient and he can spin some kind of peace deal with Ukr where he gets crimea and donbass bits as a triumph against JK Rowling or whatever, then he survives. At least for a while.
It will take a long time for RU military to recover from this humiliation so unless Vlad has really gone totally nuts, east Europe has time to rearm. Which it must do. In spades.
Incidentally, one of the most crap things about Sunak's appalling budget was no increase in defence spending. Madness.
Defence spending is actually planned to decline in real terms in one of the years (I think 2023-24).
"Chaos as Joe Biden says Vladimir Putin ‘cannot remain in power’ US policy in disarray as White House is forced to row back president’s call for Russian leader to be removed"
It's an obvious truth that everyone is thinking. The only question is when and how, and how many die with him.
It's a truth, but it's not the sort of thing the leader of one nuclear-armed state should say about the leader of another nuclear-armed state while sending bucketloads of weapons to the country that are turning the other leader's army into scrap metal.
It's not a gaffe. I think it was planned, Biden was able to say it on the basis that everyone knows he gaffes and thus the US government can row back from it but with Biden saying what needs to be said.
"Putin’s fate will depend on developments in Moscow that we can neither anticipate nor control. But the idea that after this war we can try and find some new way of working with Putin in power seems far-fetched.
"Chaos as Joe Biden says Vladimir Putin ‘cannot remain in power’ US policy in disarray as White House is forced to row back president’s call for Russian leader to be removed"
It's an obvious truth that everyone is thinking. The only question is when and how, and how many die with him.
Not sure that is true. If his grip on power is sufficient and he can spin some kind of peace deal with Ukr where he gets crimea and donbass bits as a triumph against JK Rowling or whatever, then he survives. At least for a while.
It will take a long time for RU military to recover from this humiliation so unless Vlad has really gone totally nuts, east Europe has time to rearm. Which it must do. In spades.
Incidentally, one of the most crap things about Sunak's appalling budget was no increase in defence spending. Madness.
I don't think that Russia can rearm and modernise its army until sanctions end, and that isn't going to happen with Putin in power. Hence no rush on the defence budget.
Bad news guys, the biggest football match of the night, between the behemoths of Gibraltar and the Faroe Islands, seems to have been a snoozefest, 0-0.
For some reason the BBC don't seem to have a story up on the match, truly a poor showing from the broadcaster.
That's genuinely frightening. If this is the mindset in the Kremlin I am not seeing any good ways out of this.
It is also, of course, complete nonsense. Was losing in Vietnam the end of the American state? Or Afghanistan? The thinking is that if Russia is not a big scary military power it is nothing at all. It really doesn't need to be like that.
Oddly enough, Vietnam and Afghanistan did produce significant cultural, political, social and psychological impacts in both America and Russia respectively. Call it a "crise de coeur" if you like but both states found themselves asking some hard questions after their respective experiences.
The nearest British experience would be Suez and it's prescient to argue what would have happened had the attempt to recapture the Falklands failed 40 years ago? States function on a degree of self-belief or self-confidence irrespective of how well or badly things are actually going - look at Ukraine, immense damage, lives lost yet their self-belief is unshaken as was ours under the Blitz.
As I've said before it's very noteworthy how many Ukrainian refugees want to stay in Poland and other neighbouring countries. The reason being they expect to be able to go home soon and are optimistic about their country's future. Many people are also fleeing Russia. Do they expect to be going home soon? I'm not so sure.
"Chaos as Joe Biden says Vladimir Putin ‘cannot remain in power’ US policy in disarray as White House is forced to row back president’s call for Russian leader to be removed"
It's an obvious truth that everyone is thinking. The only question is when and how, and how many die with him.
Not sure that is true. If his grip on power is sufficient and he can spin some kind of peace deal with Ukr where he gets crimea and donbass bits as a triumph against JK Rowling or whatever, then he survives. At least for a while.
It will take a long time for RU military to recover from this humiliation so unless Vlad has really gone totally nuts, east Europe has time to rearm. Which it must do. In spades.
Incidentally, one of the most crap things about Sunak's appalling budget was no increase in defence spending. Madness.
I don't think that Russia can rearm and modernise its army until sanctions end, and that isn't going to happen with Putin in power. Hence no rush on the defence budget.
Replacing 300+ tanks ain't cheap.
Nevertheless the options to act open to us generally appear to be quite limited, and if we want to have more flexibility it seems like we need more funds (or to stop wasting tons).
"Putin’s fate will depend on developments in Moscow that we can neither anticipate nor control. But the idea that after this war we can try and find some new way of working with Putin in power seems far-fetched.
"Chaos as Joe Biden says Vladimir Putin ‘cannot remain in power’ US policy in disarray as White House is forced to row back president’s call for Russian leader to be removed"
It's an obvious truth that everyone is thinking. The only question is when and how, and how many die with him.
Not sure that is true. If his grip on power is sufficient and he can spin some kind of peace deal with Ukr where he gets crimea and donbass bits as a triumph against JK Rowling or whatever, then he survives. At least for a while.
It will take a long time for RU military to recover from this humiliation so unless Vlad has really gone totally nuts, east Europe has time to rearm. Which it must do. In spades.
Incidentally, one of the most crap things about Sunak's appalling budget was no increase in defence spending. Madness.
I don't think that Russia can rearm and modernise its army until sanctions end, and that isn't going to happen with Putin in power. Hence no rush on the defence budget.
Replacing 300+ tanks ain't cheap.
Nevertheless the options to act open to us generally appear to be quite limited, and if we want to have more flexibility it seems like we need more funds (or to stop wasting tons).
They can't produce anywhere near as fast as the west can produce NLAWs....
"Chaos as Joe Biden says Vladimir Putin ‘cannot remain in power’ US policy in disarray as White House is forced to row back president’s call for Russian leader to be removed"
It's an obvious truth that everyone is thinking. The only question is when and how, and how many die with him.
Not sure that is true. If his grip on power is sufficient and he can spin some kind of peace deal with Ukr where he gets crimea and donbass bits as a triumph against JK Rowling or whatever, then he survives. At least for a while.
It will take a long time for RU military to recover from this humiliation so unless Vlad has really gone totally nuts, east Europe has time to rearm. Which it must do. In spades.
Incidentally, one of the most crap things about Sunak's appalling budget was no increase in defence spending. Madness.
Defence spending is actually planned to decline in real terms in one of the years (I think 2023-24).
It is simply astonishing that (at the very least) the Government didn't annouce a reverse to the recent army cuts and pledge to maintain defence spending in real terms.
Our army, in particular, is woefully underequipped and undermanned at present: we need to be able to deploy and maintain at least one expeditionary warfighting division to be credible.
"Chaos as Joe Biden says Vladimir Putin ‘cannot remain in power’ US policy in disarray as White House is forced to row back president’s call for Russian leader to be removed"
It's an obvious truth that everyone is thinking. The only question is when and how, and how many die with him.
Not sure that is true. If his grip on power is sufficient and he can spin some kind of peace deal with Ukr where he gets crimea and donbass bits as a triumph against JK Rowling or whatever, then he survives. At least for a while.
It will take a long time for RU military to recover from this humiliation so unless Vlad has really gone totally nuts, east Europe has time to rearm. Which it must do. In spades.
Incidentally, one of the most crap things about Sunak's appalling budget was no increase in defence spending. Madness.
I don't think that Russia can rearm and modernise its army until sanctions end, and that isn't going to happen with Putin in power. Hence no rush on the defence budget.
Replacing 300+ tanks ain't cheap.
Nevertheless the options to act open to us generally appear to be quite limited, and if we want to have more flexibility it seems like we need more funds (or to stop wasting tons).
Not only that, they need to be replaced by more capable ones. It ain't gonna happen.
"Putin’s fate will depend on developments in Moscow that we can neither anticipate nor control. But the idea that after this war we can try and find some new way of working with Putin in power seems far-fetched.
At end of Caribbean tour, Prince William pomises to “reflect” on lessons learned and hints that the next Head of the Commonwealth should *not be a member of the Royal Family.
I believe his reflection could encompass the notion that the unfortunate hands through the fence couldn't be helped, he was damned if he did and damned if he didn't. That he should never ever stand up in the back of a Land Rover dressed like an old colonial. Whoever had that idea should be collecting their P45.
That's genuinely frightening. If this is the mindset in the Kremlin I am not seeing any good ways out of this.
It is also, of course, complete nonsense. Was losing in Vietnam the end of the American state? Or Afghanistan? The thinking is that if Russia is not a big scary military power it is nothing at all. It really doesn't need to be like that.
Oddly enough, Vietnam and Afghanistan did produce significant cultural, political, social and psychological impacts in both America and Russia respectively. Call it a "crise de coeur" if you like but both states found themselves asking some hard questions after their respective experiences.
The nearest British experience would be Suez and it's prescient to argue what would have happened had the attempt to recapture the Falklands failed 40 years ago? States function on a degree of self-belief or self-confidence irrespective of how well or badly things are actually going - look at Ukraine, immense damage, lives lost yet their self-belief is unshaken as was ours under the Blitz.
As I've said before it's very noteworthy how many Ukrainian refugees want to stay in Poland and other neighbouring countries. The reason being they expect to be able to go home soon and are optimistic about their country's future. Many people are also fleeing Russia. Do they expect to be going home soon? I'm not so sure.
Also worth noting that much of western Ukraine, including Lvov, used to be part of Poland too - so they don't necessarily see Ukrainians as foreigners.
"Chaos as Joe Biden says Vladimir Putin ‘cannot remain in power’ US policy in disarray as White House is forced to row back president’s call for Russian leader to be removed"
It's an obvious truth that everyone is thinking. The only question is when and how, and how many die with him.
It's a truth, but it's not the sort of thing the leader of one nuclear-armed state should say about the leader of another nuclear-armed state while sending bucketloads of weapons to the country that are turning the other leader's army into scrap metal.
It's not a gaffe. I think it was planned, Biden was able to say it on the basis that everyone knows he gaffes and thus the US government can row back from it but with Biden saying what needs to be said.
It also gives Ukraine something that can be bargained away so Russia can save face, instead of anything more tangible.
"Chaos as Joe Biden says Vladimir Putin ‘cannot remain in power’ US policy in disarray as White House is forced to row back president’s call for Russian leader to be removed"
It's an obvious truth that everyone is thinking. The only question is when and how, and how many die with him.
Not sure that is true. If his grip on power is sufficient and he can spin some kind of peace deal with Ukr where he gets crimea and donbass bits as a triumph against JK Rowling or whatever, then he survives. At least for a while.
It will take a long time for RU military to recover from this humiliation so unless Vlad has really gone totally nuts, east Europe has time to rearm. Which it must do. In spades.
Incidentally, one of the most crap things about Sunak's appalling budget was no increase in defence spending. Madness.
I don't think that Russia can rearm and modernise its army until sanctions end, and that isn't going to happen with Putin in power. Hence no rush on the defence budget.
Replacing 300+ tanks ain't cheap.
Nevertheless the options to act open to us generally appear to be quite limited, and if we want to have more flexibility it seems like we need more funds (or to stop wasting tons).
Putin could be replaced by someone even more martial.
At end of Caribbean tour, Prince William pomises to “reflect” on lessons learned and hints that the next Head of the Commonwealth should *not be a member of the Royal Family.
At end of Caribbean tour, Prince William pomises to “reflect” on lessons learned and hints that the next Head of the Commonwealth should *not be a member of the Royal Family.
"Chaos as Joe Biden says Vladimir Putin ‘cannot remain in power’ US policy in disarray as White House is forced to row back president’s call for Russian leader to be removed"
It's an obvious truth that everyone is thinking. The only question is when and how, and how many die with him.
Not sure that is true. If his grip on power is sufficient and he can spin some kind of peace deal with Ukr where he gets crimea and donbass bits as a triumph against JK Rowling or whatever, then he survives. At least for a while.
It will take a long time for RU military to recover from this humiliation so unless Vlad has really gone totally nuts, east Europe has time to rearm. Which it must do. In spades.
Incidentally, one of the most crap things about Sunak's appalling budget was no increase in defence spending. Madness.
I don't think that Russia can rearm and modernise its army until sanctions end, and that isn't going to happen with Putin in power. Hence no rush on the defence budget.
Replacing 300+ tanks ain't cheap.
Nevertheless the options to act open to us generally appear to be quite limited, and if we want to have more flexibility it seems like we need more funds (or to stop wasting tons).
Putin could be replaced by someone even more martial.
The West must arm.
The next guy can be as martial as he likes, he won’t have any weapons (or men to use them)
Russia is exposed as a militarily weak power (despite their size). Given their machismo, that must be excruciating
Hence, they are reduced to the last symbol of potency. The nukes. But even that has limited effect the more you don’t ever use them
Russia is King Lear raging on the blasted Heath. An old man whose kingly powers have gone
“I will have such revenges on you both, That all the world shall—I will do such things— What they are, yet I know not, but they shall be The terrors of the earth!”
"Chaos as Joe Biden says Vladimir Putin ‘cannot remain in power’ US policy in disarray as White House is forced to row back president’s call for Russian leader to be removed"
It's an obvious truth that everyone is thinking. The only question is when and how, and how many die with him.
Not sure that is true. If his grip on power is sufficient and he can spin some kind of peace deal with Ukr where he gets crimea and donbass bits as a triumph against JK Rowling or whatever, then he survives. At least for a while.
It will take a long time for RU military to recover from this humiliation so unless Vlad has really gone totally nuts, east Europe has time to rearm. Which it must do. In spades.
Incidentally, one of the most crap things about Sunak's appalling budget was no increase in defence spending. Madness.
I don't think that Russia can rearm and modernise its army until sanctions end, and that isn't going to happen with Putin in power. Hence no rush on the defence budget.
Replacing 300+ tanks ain't cheap.
Nevertheless the options to act open to us generally appear to be quite limited, and if we want to have more flexibility it seems like we need more funds (or to stop wasting tons).
Putin could be replaced by someone even more martial.
The West must arm.
The next guy can be as martial as he likes, he won’t have any weapons (or men to use them)
Russia is exposed as a militarily weak power (despite their size). Given their machismo, that must be excruciating
Hence, they are reduced to the last symbol of potency. The nukes. But even that has limited effect the more you don’t ever use them
Russia is King Lear raging on the blasted Heath. An old man whose kingly powers have gone
“I will have such revenges on you both, That all the world shall—I will do such things— What they are, yet I know not, but they shall be The terrors of the earth!”
LOL.
Lear was about as old as Putin.
And similar number of daughters judging by the rumours.
"Chaos as Joe Biden says Vladimir Putin ‘cannot remain in power’ US policy in disarray as White House is forced to row back president’s call for Russian leader to be removed"
It's an obvious truth that everyone is thinking. The only question is when and how, and how many die with him.
Not sure that is true. If his grip on power is sufficient and he can spin some kind of peace deal with Ukr where he gets crimea and donbass bits as a triumph against JK Rowling or whatever, then he survives. At least for a while.
It will take a long time for RU military to recover from this humiliation so unless Vlad has really gone totally nuts, east Europe has time to rearm. Which it must do. In spades.
Incidentally, one of the most crap things about Sunak's appalling budget was no increase in defence spending. Madness.
I don't think that Russia can rearm and modernise its army until sanctions end, and that isn't going to happen with Putin in power. Hence no rush on the defence budget.
Replacing 300+ tanks ain't cheap.
Nevertheless the options to act open to us generally appear to be quite limited, and if we want to have more flexibility it seems like we need more funds (or to stop wasting tons).
Putin could be replaced by someone even more martial.
The West must arm.
The next guy can be as martial as he likes, he won’t have any weapons (or men to use them)
Russia is exposed as a militarily weak power (despite their size). Given their machismo, that must be excruciating
Hence, they are reduced to the last symbol of potency. The nukes. But even that has limited effect the more you don’t ever use them
Russia is King Lear raging on the blasted Heath. An old man whose kingly powers have gone
“I will have such revenges on you both, That all the world shall—I will do such things— What they are, yet I know not, but they shall be The terrors of the earth!”
Is Russia in a more powerful position than the West over nukes? Can America lob ICBMs in the general direction of Russia without risking retaliation from China, or vice versa, simply because of uncertainty as to the target? Genuine question.
Christopher Miller @ChristopherJM · 32m Happening now on the frontline near the eastern city of Avdiivka, Russian forces are using white phosphorus against Ukrainians. 📸 Photos from a Ukrainian lieutenant taken in real-time moments ago as we spoke. He described the situation as “madness.”
Christopher Miller @ChristopherJM · 32m Happening now on the frontline near the eastern city of Avdiivka, Russian forces are using white phosphorus against Ukrainians. 📸 Photos from a Ukrainian lieutenant taken in real-time moments ago as we spoke. He described the situation as “madness.”
this isn't White Phosphorus, these are thermite incendiary submunitions which are in fact even worse. we've seen similar footage of these unguided 9M22S incendiary Grad rockets in use by the Russians in Syria countless times before https://t.co/szTtXQkGPy
Bruno Maçães @MacaesBruno · 4h As always impression Biden isn’t quite in charge. Maybe comment was not in written speech but Biden felt the disappointment in the Polish crowd?
===
Biden has always been an emotional character, so might be true.
And to think Putin could have put puppet in his place and retired with his billions to his mega palace and live out his days.
I dont think he is interested in money. That is the clear way he is different to the rest of his regime.
He is a true believer in his madcap ideas of history and geopolitics. These ideas and his place in the history books matter far more than money and a comfortable retirement.
As previously stated here, I have banked almost £200 whatever happens by staking £600 on UKR winning the competition at 4.8 and then laying UKR at 3.55. So "All Green" whatever happens.
Well, today I have reinvested my "winnings". Almost £200 on UKR at 2.58 to win Eurovision. If UKR win I'm up +£500. If they don't I'm up £0.08.
And to think Putin could have put puppet in his place and retired with his billions to his mega palace and live out his days.
Indeed, the mansion in St George's Hill, Weybridge, membership at Wentworth, and perhaps lunch in the HoC with the MP for Telford and the Wrekin is out of the question now.
Nicole Grajewski @NicoleGrajewski Peskov claims that Biden's advisors are not telling him the truth about the real state of affairs within Russia and the Russian economy - he also suggests that Biden's comments could be attributed to false information from his advisors
===
Well, Peskov should know seeing as it is clear that all of RU military elite and foreign intelligent service have been lying to Putin for years about the true state of the army and the world beyond russian borders.
And to think Putin could have put puppet in his place and retired with his billions to his mega palace and live out his days.
Indeed, the mansion in St George's Hill, Weybridge, membership at Wentworth, and perhaps lunch in the HoC with the MP for Telford and the Wrekin is out of the question now.
There's always a cup of tea and an exchange of stupid hats at George Galloway's place to look forward to mind.
That's genuinely frightening. If this is the mindset in the Kremlin I am not seeing any good ways out of this.
It is also, of course, complete nonsense. Was losing in Vietnam the end of the American state? Or Afghanistan? The thinking is that if Russia is not a big scary military power it is nothing at all. It really doesn't need to be like that.
yes, the idea that you need to be able to frighten NATO or anybody to be a 'state' is silly. I don't know anybody who tells me they are frightened of the State of Switzerland or New Zealand. but they are both recognised as states safe and quite happy as far as I can tell.
Perhaps its might be the end of The Putin Government, but that's because all that Putin has is Fear, nobody (well almost nobody) like, respects, or is impressed by Putin, but lots of people fear Putin, both inside and outside of Russia.
Incidentally do we know who was the chap on the TV clip?
Yes, it's this bloke - I'd never heard of him but he sounds like a chat show host gaining an audience by sucking up to the President and ranting hysterically - a sort of George Galloway figure but in media rather than politics.
It's not obvious that he has any influence at all. Others will know more, but my impression is that there is a range of broadcast opinion in Russia from vaguely liberal to ultra-nationalist which is normally tolerated, and we shouldn't treat every pundit as the voice of the regime.
Nicole Grajewski @NicoleGrajewski Peskov claims that Biden's advisors are not telling him the truth about the real state of affairs within Russia and the Russian economy - he also suggests that Biden's comments could be attributed to false information from his advisors
===
Well, Peskov should know seeing as it is clear that all of RU military elite and foreign intelligent service have been lying to Putin for years about the true state of the army and the world beyond russian borders.
Genuine
An interesting angle to attempt as well, as it suggests Peskov believes the americans do have accurate information about the real state of affairs within Russia, even if it is not making it to Biden perhaps.
Nicole Grajewski @NicoleGrajewski Peskov claims that Biden's advisors are not telling him the truth about the real state of affairs within Russia and the Russian economy - he also suggests that Biden's comments could be attributed to false information from his advisors
===
Well, Peskov should know seeing as it is clear that all of RU military elite and foreign intelligent service have been lying to Putin for years about the true state of the army and the world beyond russian borders.
Genuine
An interesting angle to attempt as well, as it suggests Peskov believes the americans do have accurate information abotu the real state of affairs within Russia, even if it is not making it to Biden perhaps.
Yes. LOL. There is of course a very senior mole at the Kremlin by all accounts.
From the OSINT people on Twitter sounds like a good day for Ukraine with advances made around Sumy and Kharkiv, Trostyanets retaken (between Sumy and Okhtyrka) Russian prisoners taken in Sumy and Luhansk, and a Russian tank regiment commander committing suicide.
Main worrying development the news that Russian soldiers are now being found to have been issued Sarin gas antidotes.
At end of Caribbean tour, Prince William pomises to “reflect” on lessons learned and hints that the next Head of the Commonwealth should *not be a member of the Royal Family.
I believe his reflection could encompass the notion that the unfortunate hands through the fence couldn't be helped, he was damned if he did and damned if he didn't. That he should never ever stand up in the back of a Land Rover dressed like an old colonial. Whoever had that idea should be collecting their P45.
First I saw that photo I assumed it was a local and a republican that set that up. That's still my guess. I have not thought to try and find out for sure, wouldn't know where to start. Hard to believe someone could set that up without seeing it as a potentially damaging image.
I suspect someone was trying to evoke this image here:
From the OSINT people on Twitter sounds like a good day for Ukraine with advances made around Sumy and Kharkiv, Trostyanets retaken (between Sumy and Okhtyrka) Russian prisoners taken in Sumy and Luhansk, and a Russian tank regiment commander committing suicide.
Main worrying development the news that Russian soldiers are now being found to have been issued Sarin gas antidotes.
Small arms fire in Nova Kakhovka, and Kherson too. The significance being that without those two bridges, the Russians west of the river are cut off.
Christopher Miller @ChristopherJM · 32m Happening now on the frontline near the eastern city of Avdiivka, Russian forces are using white phosphorus against Ukrainians. 📸 Photos from a Ukrainian lieutenant taken in real-time moments ago as we spoke. He described the situation as “madness.”
Also placed under scrutiny are the 1996 family drama Loch Ness, starring Ted Danson and Joely Richardson, and the 1983 short The Loch Ness Monster Movie, in which a cheaply animated claymation Nessie rampages through Edinburgh.
The teaching aid says: ‘This monstrous destruction of the nation’s capital questions whether Scotland may be dragged into the dangerous arena of the Cold War due to its relationship with England… and indeed, Britain’s “special relationship” with the USA.
Monstrous destruction… in a short clay animation movie?
Also placed under scrutiny are the 1996 family drama Loch Ness, starring Ted Danson and Joely Richardson, and the 1983 short The Loch Ness Monster Movie, in which a cheaply animated claymation Nessie rampages through Edinburgh.
The teaching aid says: ‘This monstrous destruction of the nation’s capital questions whether Scotland may be dragged into the dangerous arena of the Cold War due to its relationship with England… and indeed, Britain’s “special relationship” with the USA.
Monstrous destruction… in a short clay animation movie?
"Chaos as Joe Biden says Vladimir Putin ‘cannot remain in power’ US policy in disarray as White House is forced to row back president’s call for Russian leader to be removed"
It's an obvious truth that everyone is thinking. The only question is when and how, and how many die with him.
It's a truth, but it's not the sort of thing the leader of one nuclear-armed state should say about the leader of another nuclear-armed state while sending bucketloads of weapons to the country that are turning the other leader's army into scrap metal.
Yes, the weirdness of international relations. Think of how many leaders we'd like to say something like that o, but it'd just not the done thing.
William Hague, then Foreign Secretary, said it about President Assad of Syria in 2012 and Assad is still there while Hague is a has-been.
Comments
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/26/britain-clocks-go-forward-eu-us-hour-changes
A bit like the gentle Con-to-Lab swing that started last summer. Not driven by events or scandals (you can see the spikes when they enter and leave public conciousness) but just happening.
Whoever works out how sticky that drift is, how far it will go and what to do about it will win.
This clip from Russian television really is quite startling
https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1507819604105592832
It is also, of course, complete nonsense. Was losing in Vietnam the end of the American state? Or Afghanistan? The thinking is that if Russia is not a big scary military power it is nothing at all. It really doesn't need to be like that.
You can understand the frustration and the sentiment, but, I guess his spokesmen are getting used to clarifying this sort of thing after the event. It reminds me of his, "Will you shut up man" in the debate with Trump.
Perhaps its might be the end of The Putin Government, but that's because all that Putin has is Fear, nobody (well almost nobody) like, respects, or is impressed by Putin, but lots of people fear Putin, both inside and outside of Russia.
Incidentally do we know who was the chap on the TV clip?
"Chaos as Joe Biden says Vladimir Putin ‘cannot remain in power’
US policy in disarray as White House is forced to row back president’s call for Russian leader to be removed"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/26/joe-biden-us-president-vladimir-putin-russia-power-ukraine-invasion/
Internal collapse of Russia would be the extreme outcome but several warning signs are there. A weakening autocratic state, financial chaos, military debacle with large numbers of angry grieving mothers and ex servicemen.
Holy. Fucking. Crap.
They've peaked at about 270ish deaths per day - that's the UK equivalent of 2500 a day
FWIW, I think the most likely endgame here is an internal coup. Biden’s comments today - shambolic as they are - is likely to reinforce the idea amongst more than a few in Russia that sanctions will stay if Putin remains in power and so he needs to go. I think that’s more likely than chemical / nuclear war.
Six months out from jab 3, has Boris Johnson beaten Covid here or could we be up S*** Street shortly with waning immunity?
Asking for a friend.
It's an obvious truth that everyone is thinking. The only question is when and how, and how many die with him.
In those circumstances would you trust the Chinese state and accept their Covid vaccine?
The nearest British experience would be Suez and it's prescient to argue what would have happened had the attempt to recapture the Falklands failed 40 years ago? States function on a degree of self-belief or self-confidence irrespective of how well or badly things are actually going - look at Ukraine, immense damage, lives lost yet their self-belief is unshaken as was ours under the Blitz.
Russia for them equals the Russian empire.
Also worth noting that with 1 in 11 scots having the virus a week ago, maybe slightly more now, the hospitals are still not overflowing. there are now less than 1% of the adult population that do not have some sort of protection in there immune system.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/02/hong-kong-bno-visa-100000-apply-to-live-in-united-kingdom.html
Life is surely still tough in hospitals, and for those who are more at risk, but things in the U.K. are not bad right now.
It will take a long time for RU military to recover from this humiliation so unless Vlad has really gone totally nuts, east Europe has time to rearm. Which it must do. In spades.
Incidentally, one of the most crap things about Sunak's appalling budget was no increase in defence spending. Madness.
Kharkiv region, Russian forces reportedly used the rocket mining system “Земледелие”. Utilizes rockets to deploy a mine payload at distance.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1507825447459082246?s=20&t=HI1dBCaXpnXjkk_8xAtNbQ
Commonwealth should *not be a member of the Royal Family.
https://www.itv.com/news/2022-03-26/prince-william-says-he-will-reflect-after-caribbean-tour
https://twitter.com/LawDavF/status/1507799966957375492
I see what you did there. Quoting Johnson a whopping one point ahead of Starmer without referencing the respective net approval ratings.
For some reason the BBC don't seem to have a story up on the match, truly a poor showing from the broadcaster.
Nevertheless the options to act open to us generally appear to be quite limited, and if we want to have more flexibility it seems like we need more funds (or to stop wasting tons).
Our army, in particular, is woefully underequipped and undermanned at present: we need to be able to deploy and maintain at least one expeditionary warfighting division to be credible.
The West must arm.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2022
https://twitter.com/deangloster/status/1501149968358281217
Russia is exposed as a militarily weak power (despite their size). Given their machismo, that must be excruciating
Hence, they are reduced to the last symbol of potency. The nukes. But even that has limited effect the more you don’t ever use them
Russia is King Lear raging on the blasted Heath. An old man whose kingly powers have gone
“I will have such revenges on you both,
That all the world shall—I will do such things—
What they are, yet I know not, but they shall be
The terrors of the earth!”
Lear was about as old as Putin.
And similar number of daughters judging by the rumours.
Christopher Miller
@ChristopherJM
·
32m
Happening now on the frontline near the eastern city of Avdiivka, Russian forces are using white phosphorus against Ukrainians. 📸 Photos from a Ukrainian lieutenant taken in real-time moments ago as we spoke. He described the situation as “madness.”
https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM
Bruno Maçães
@MacaesBruno
·
4h
As always impression Biden isn’t quite in charge. Maybe comment was not in written speech but Biden felt the disappointment in the Polish crowd?
===
Biden has always been an emotional character, so might be true.
He is a true believer in his madcap ideas of history and geopolitics. These ideas and his place in the history books matter far more than money and a comfortable retirement.
As previously stated here, I have banked almost £200 whatever happens by staking £600 on UKR winning the competition at 4.8 and then laying UKR at 3.55. So "All Green" whatever happens.
Well, today I have reinvested my "winnings". Almost £200 on UKR at 2.58 to win Eurovision. If UKR win I'm up +£500. If they don't I'm up £0.08.
Go Ukraine!
Nicole Grajewski
@NicoleGrajewski
Peskov claims that Biden's advisors are not telling him the truth about the real state of affairs within Russia and the Russian economy - he also suggests that Biden's comments could be attributed to false information from his advisors
===
Well, Peskov should know seeing as it is clear that all of RU military elite and foreign intelligent service have been lying to Putin for years about the true state of the army and the world beyond russian borders.
Genuine
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Solovyov_(journalist)?msclkid=05033957ad5d11ec829a0e06fc85404a
It's not obvious that he has any influence at all. Others will know more, but my impression is that there is a range of broadcast opinion in Russia from vaguely liberal to ultra-nationalist which is normally tolerated, and we shouldn't treat every pundit as the voice of the regime.
Main worrying development the news that Russian soldiers are now being found to have been issued Sarin gas antidotes.
do Anthrax and fire mix well?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10655551/Scottish-pupils-taught-Loch-Ness-Monster-symbol-Englands-domination-Scotland.html
I would note that the other people on the show had body language along the lines of "what the fuck is this guy on".
Also placed under scrutiny are the 1996 family drama Loch Ness, starring Ted Danson and Joely Richardson, and the 1983 short The Loch Ness Monster Movie, in which a cheaply animated claymation Nessie rampages through Edinburgh.
The teaching aid says: ‘This monstrous destruction of the nation’s capital questions whether Scotland may be dragged into the dangerous arena of the Cold War due to its relationship with England… and indeed, Britain’s “special relationship” with the USA.
Monstrous destruction… in a short clay animation movie?
⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜
⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜
⬜🟩🟨⬜⬜
🟨🟩🟩🟨⬜
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
Close to failure!
It disappeared.
I want it back!