Tonight’s approval and best PM numbers from Opinium – politicalbetting.com
Tonight’s approval and best PM numbers from Opinium – politicalbetting.com
.@RishiSunak's approval rating is at an all-time low. > At the Budget in 2021 48% approved of the job he was doin, while 24% approved.> Now, 35% disapprove of the job he is doing, while only 31% approve. pic.twitter.com/Y9CxYCOT5b
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https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/26/britain-clocks-go-forward-eu-us-hour-changes
A bit like the gentle Con-to-Lab swing that started last summer. Not driven by events or scandals (you can see the spikes when they enter and leave public conciousness) but just happening.
Whoever works out how sticky that drift is, how far it will go and what to do about it will win.
This clip from Russian television really is quite startling
https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1507819604105592832
It is also, of course, complete nonsense. Was losing in Vietnam the end of the American state? Or Afghanistan? The thinking is that if Russia is not a big scary military power it is nothing at all. It really doesn't need to be like that.
You can understand the frustration and the sentiment, but, I guess his spokesmen are getting used to clarifying this sort of thing after the event. It reminds me of his, "Will you shut up man" in the debate with Trump.
Perhaps its might be the end of The Putin Government, but that's because all that Putin has is Fear, nobody (well almost nobody) like, respects, or is impressed by Putin, but lots of people fear Putin, both inside and outside of Russia.
Incidentally do we know who was the chap on the TV clip?
"Chaos as Joe Biden says Vladimir Putin ‘cannot remain in power’
US policy in disarray as White House is forced to row back president’s call for Russian leader to be removed"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/26/joe-biden-us-president-vladimir-putin-russia-power-ukraine-invasion/
Internal collapse of Russia would be the extreme outcome but several warning signs are there. A weakening autocratic state, financial chaos, military debacle with large numbers of angry grieving mothers and ex servicemen.
Holy. Fucking. Crap.
They've peaked at about 270ish deaths per day - that's the UK equivalent of 2500 a day
FWIW, I think the most likely endgame here is an internal coup. Biden’s comments today - shambolic as they are - is likely to reinforce the idea amongst more than a few in Russia that sanctions will stay if Putin remains in power and so he needs to go. I think that’s more likely than chemical / nuclear war.
Six months out from jab 3, has Boris Johnson beaten Covid here or could we be up S*** Street shortly with waning immunity?
Asking for a friend.
It's an obvious truth that everyone is thinking. The only question is when and how, and how many die with him.
In those circumstances would you trust the Chinese state and accept their Covid vaccine?
The nearest British experience would be Suez and it's prescient to argue what would have happened had the attempt to recapture the Falklands failed 40 years ago? States function on a degree of self-belief or self-confidence irrespective of how well or badly things are actually going - look at Ukraine, immense damage, lives lost yet their self-belief is unshaken as was ours under the Blitz.
Russia for them equals the Russian empire.
Also worth noting that with 1 in 11 scots having the virus a week ago, maybe slightly more now, the hospitals are still not overflowing. there are now less than 1% of the adult population that do not have some sort of protection in there immune system.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/02/hong-kong-bno-visa-100000-apply-to-live-in-united-kingdom.html
Life is surely still tough in hospitals, and for those who are more at risk, but things in the U.K. are not bad right now.
It will take a long time for RU military to recover from this humiliation so unless Vlad has really gone totally nuts, east Europe has time to rearm. Which it must do. In spades.
Incidentally, one of the most crap things about Sunak's appalling budget was no increase in defence spending. Madness.
Kharkiv region, Russian forces reportedly used the rocket mining system “Земледелие”. Utilizes rockets to deploy a mine payload at distance.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1507825447459082246?s=20&t=HI1dBCaXpnXjkk_8xAtNbQ
Commonwealth should *not be a member of the Royal Family.
https://www.itv.com/news/2022-03-26/prince-william-says-he-will-reflect-after-caribbean-tour
https://twitter.com/LawDavF/status/1507799966957375492
I see what you did there. Quoting Johnson a whopping one point ahead of Starmer without referencing the respective net approval ratings.
For some reason the BBC don't seem to have a story up on the match, truly a poor showing from the broadcaster.
Nevertheless the options to act open to us generally appear to be quite limited, and if we want to have more flexibility it seems like we need more funds (or to stop wasting tons).
Our army, in particular, is woefully underequipped and undermanned at present: we need to be able to deploy and maintain at least one expeditionary warfighting division to be credible.
The West must arm.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2022
https://twitter.com/deangloster/status/1501149968358281217
Russia is exposed as a militarily weak power (despite their size). Given their machismo, that must be excruciating
Hence, they are reduced to the last symbol of potency. The nukes. But even that has limited effect the more you don’t ever use them
Russia is King Lear raging on the blasted Heath. An old man whose kingly powers have gone
“I will have such revenges on you both,
That all the world shall—I will do such things—
What they are, yet I know not, but they shall be
The terrors of the earth!”
Lear was about as old as Putin.
And similar number of daughters judging by the rumours.
Christopher Miller
@ChristopherJM
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32m
Happening now on the frontline near the eastern city of Avdiivka, Russian forces are using white phosphorus against Ukrainians. 📸 Photos from a Ukrainian lieutenant taken in real-time moments ago as we spoke. He described the situation as “madness.”
https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM
Bruno Maçães
@MacaesBruno
·
4h
As always impression Biden isn’t quite in charge. Maybe comment was not in written speech but Biden felt the disappointment in the Polish crowd?
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Biden has always been an emotional character, so might be true.
He is a true believer in his madcap ideas of history and geopolitics. These ideas and his place in the history books matter far more than money and a comfortable retirement.
As previously stated here, I have banked almost £200 whatever happens by staking £600 on UKR winning the competition at 4.8 and then laying UKR at 3.55. So "All Green" whatever happens.
Well, today I have reinvested my "winnings". Almost £200 on UKR at 2.58 to win Eurovision. If UKR win I'm up +£500. If they don't I'm up £0.08.
Go Ukraine!
Nicole Grajewski
@NicoleGrajewski
Peskov claims that Biden's advisors are not telling him the truth about the real state of affairs within Russia and the Russian economy - he also suggests that Biden's comments could be attributed to false information from his advisors
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Well, Peskov should know seeing as it is clear that all of RU military elite and foreign intelligent service have been lying to Putin for years about the true state of the army and the world beyond russian borders.
Genuine
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Solovyov_(journalist)?msclkid=05033957ad5d11ec829a0e06fc85404a
It's not obvious that he has any influence at all. Others will know more, but my impression is that there is a range of broadcast opinion in Russia from vaguely liberal to ultra-nationalist which is normally tolerated, and we shouldn't treat every pundit as the voice of the regime.
Main worrying development the news that Russian soldiers are now being found to have been issued Sarin gas antidotes.
do Anthrax and fire mix well?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10655551/Scottish-pupils-taught-Loch-Ness-Monster-symbol-Englands-domination-Scotland.html
I would note that the other people on the show had body language along the lines of "what the fuck is this guy on".
Also placed under scrutiny are the 1996 family drama Loch Ness, starring Ted Danson and Joely Richardson, and the 1983 short The Loch Ness Monster Movie, in which a cheaply animated claymation Nessie rampages through Edinburgh.
The teaching aid says: ‘This monstrous destruction of the nation’s capital questions whether Scotland may be dragged into the dangerous arena of the Cold War due to its relationship with England… and indeed, Britain’s “special relationship” with the USA.
Monstrous destruction… in a short clay animation movie?
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Close to failure!
It disappeared.
I want it back!