politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LDs and LAB the gainers in today’s FOUR new voting inte

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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LDs and LAB the gainers in today’s FOUR new voting intention polls

I can’t remember a day since the 2010 general election when we’ve had four new Westminster voting intention polls. They are featured in the interactive chart above.

Read the full story here

Fenster

@SMukesh FPT

That's what the debate should be about: how Britain makes its way in the future. How we compete. How we ensure our children are well educated and prepared for a fight for jobs in an increasingly tough world market. How our economy stays lean and our spending sustainable. How we adjust to living without spending money we haven't earned yet.

It's what politicians and thinkers on all sides should be concentrating on.

The trouble is, Ed Miliband and Ed Balls were part of the Gordon Brown team who claimed an end to boom and bust. They allowed living standards to soar on borrowed money (and boasted about it) and deliberately set the public sector to grow - and enjoy year after year pay rises in return for little or no improvements in efficiency - grossly out of proportion to the private sector. And, most distastefully of all, they issued growth predictions to justify the spending, which were based on fiction. Essentially, they allowed themselves to believe that they had ended boom and bust.

I am willing to let bygones be bygones, and I fully understand the need for an active public sector and the need to help the poor. But until Ed Miliband and Ed Balls admit their direct hand in the creation of a huge deficit and spiralling debt, I am not willing to trust their judgement on the big economic ideas.

And I suspect a lot of voters out there think the same way as me.

Having said that - sadly - I also suspect Ed Miliband will get to power. And I fear what will happen after that. Not for me, but for my children.

TheScreamingEagles

If it weren't for the fixed term parliaments act, we'd be discussing whether the coalition would be going to the country this year.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Eagles-Reeves, I've got that on my playlist

Morris_Dancer

F1: there are a few interested parties for the grid slot in 2015, including a Nascar chap called Haas:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/25774084

One hopes any new team is rather quicker to get up to speed than the current backmarkers (who really need to start challenging for points).

rcs1000

Libs clearly benefitting from Rennard revelations...

ThomasNashe

TheScreamingEagles said:

If it weren't for the fixed term parliaments act, we'd be discussing whether the coalition would be going to the country this year.

Looking at thesee polls I'd say the answer would be no. Love the toggling between the tabs, btw.

Neil

rcs1000 said:

Libs clearly benefitting from Rennard revelations...

Time to examine the gender splits!

TheScreamingEagles

You can get 500/1 on West Ham beating Newcastle 8-1 with Paddy Power

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/west-ham-v-newcastle/correct-score

isam

Averages 38/31/12/12

Can't see why that isn't a good indicator?

ThomasNashe

rcs1000 said:

Libs clearly benefitting from Rennard revelations...

Yes, it's helping them appeal to that segment of middle-aged men that UKIP had in the bag while Godfrey Bloom was visible and vocal.

taffys

Libs clearly benefitting from Rennard revelations...

Don't tell me you're skeptical about the findings of this poll......?????

TheScreamingEagles

isam said:

Averages 38/31/12/12

Can't see why that isn't a good indicator?

Because in the past, it hasn't been a good indicator.

TheScreamingEagles

rcs1000 said:

Libs clearly benefitting from Rennard revelations...

The Ipsos-Mori fieldwork ended on Tuesday, before the Rennard report came out, so that 4% bump was before that, so come next month, I'm expecting the Lib Dems to be on 20%

RichardNabavi

Ipsos-MORI, Populus and YouGov are all showing a quite similar picture, but Survation is very different, with a much higher UKIP figure as usual but at the expense more of Labour than the Tories, compared with the other three.

TheScreamingEagles

RichardNabavi said:

Ipsos-MORI, Populus and YouGov are all showing a quite similar picture, but Survation is very different, with a much higher UKIP figure as usual but at the expense more of Labour than the Tories, compared with the other three.

Interestingly, out of those, only survation is the one that prompts for UKIP.

taffys

psos-MORI, Populus and YouGov are all showing a quite similar picture

It's a bit depressing if you're a tory. The government is getting diddly squat from the economic revival, lets be honest.

Mick_Pork

isam said:

Averages 38/31/12/12

Can't see why that isn't a good indicator?

For just one data point it's okay but hardly perfect. Far better as always to take account of all the polls over time with the average and examine the trends that hold for just about all the pollsters.

isam

@Josiasjessop

There are dozens of things that, if I were asked, I would either favour or not, but that don't really concern me and this is one of them I guess

isam

TheScreamingEagles said:

isam said:

Averages 38/31/12/12

Can't see why that isn't a good indicator?

Because in the past, it hasn't been a good indicator.

Hmm that doesn't seem to make sense to me.. But it is what it is

Surely not prompting for UKIP is as old fashioned and crazy as opposing gay marriage?!

Ukip the Alan Turing of VI polls?!

Tissue_Price

Some decent gags from Cameron at the Westminster Correspondents’ Dinner:

“The last time I was at a dinner this posh, Boris spent the rest of the night in prison.”

http://www.westernmorningnews.co.uk/David-Cameron-jokes/story-20457528-detail/story.html

AlastairMeeks

TheScreamingEagles said:

You can get 500/1 on West Ham beating Newcastle 8-1 with Paddy Power

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/west-ham-v-newcastle/correct-score

Alternatively, if anyone needs to get rid of money and they don't want to give it to the donkey sanctuary, I'm happy to take it off their hands.

Mick_Pork

Fenster said:

I am willing to let bygones be bygones, and I fully understand the need for an active public sector and the need to help the poor. But until Ed Miliband and Ed Balls admit their direct hand in the creation of a huge deficit and spiralling debt, I am not willing to trust their judgement on the big economic ideas.

You must have been gutted when Osbrowne famously triangulated on Labour spending.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bR_hfQU-4r0

Or not.


Good to see Osbrowne has put all the policy wonk political positioning behind him though.

*chortle*

OblitusSumMe

Mike, I think that if you use the "Extend to nice ticks" option on Datawrapper that there's a chance that all the polls will be on the same y-axis, which will make comparing them easier.

At the moment, the Lib Dem bar changes height when you switch between the Ipsos-Mori and Populus polls, although they are at 13% in both, and the Con bar is smaller when they have 33% with Populus rather than 30% with Survation. These counter-intuitive differences occur because the range of the y-axis is currently set to be equal to the largest vote share, and so is not constant.

It is quite confusing.

taffys

Good to see Osbrowne has put all the policy wonk political positioning behind him though.

Absolutely fair point, but here's the thing.

What do you think would have happened if Osborne had been a true blue deficit reducer all along???

What would have happened if he had said, as a tory should, I don;t care how prosperous you feel, its all built on debt and there will be a huge reckoning.

RichardNabavi

OblitusSumMe said:

Mike, I think that if you use the "Extend to nice ticks" option on Datawrapper that there's a chance that all the polls will be on the same y-axis, which will make comparing them easier.

At the moment, the Lib Dem bar changes height when you switch between the Ipsos-Mori and Populus polls, although they are at 13% in both, and the Con bar is smaller when they have 33% with Populus rather than 30% with Survation. These counter-intuitive differences occur because the range of the y-axis is currently set to be equal to the largest vote share, and so is not constant.

It is quite confusing.

Mike is a LibDem, you expect his bar-charts not to be confusing?

TheScreamingEagles

antifrank said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

You can get 500/1 on West Ham beating Newcastle 8-1 with Paddy Power

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/west-ham-v-newcastle/correct-score

Alternatively, if anyone needs to get rid of money and they don't want to give it to the donkey sanctuary, I'm happy to take it off their hands.

That wasn't a tip by me, blame Vic Reeves

TheScreamingEagles

OblitusSumMe said:

Mike, I think that if you use the "Extend to nice ticks" option on Datawrapper that there's a chance that all the polls will be on the same y-axis, which will make comparing them easier.

At the moment, the Lib Dem bar changes height when you switch between the Ipsos-Mori and Populus polls, although they are at 13% in both, and the Con bar is smaller when they have 33% with Populus rather than 30% with Survation. These counter-intuitive differences occur because the range of the y-axis is currently set to be equal to the largest vote share, and so is not constant.

It is quite confusing.

Thanks, I'll pass that on, and remember that the next time I used datawrapper for a PB thread.

TheScreamingEagles

For me the most interesting polling of the day, was with whom people preferred to be in coalition with, The Tories prefer to be in coalition with the Lib Dems, and The Kippers prefer to be in a coalition with Labour than the Tories.

Is a wrong assumption to assume that the Kippers are all disgruntled Tories.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Eagles, there's also the argument (regarding coalition talk) that it's easier to get along with someone more different, instead of someone who you agree with on 85% but vehemently disagree with on 15%. Not unlike the People's Front of Judea.

TheScreamingEagles

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, there's also the argument (regarding coalition talk) that it's easier to get along with someone more different, instead of someone who you agree with on 85% but vehemently disagree with on 15%. Not unlike the People's Front of Judea.

I'm a Tory that rather be in coalition with the Lib Dems than UKIP.

Pulpstar

Imagine if we built a team for a 3 day 1 innings a side match with the English 1 day bowlers and the English Test batsmen.

Just imagine !

isam

TheScreamingEagles said:

For me the most interesting polling of the day, was with whom people preferred to be in coalition with, The Tories prefer to be in coalition with the Lib Dems, and The Kippers prefer to be in a coalition with Labour than the Tories.

Is a wrong assumption to assume that the Kippers are all disgruntled Tories.

Seems to me like an allegory for splitting up with someone after a long relationship and wanting to shag someone completely different, (maybe to get the ex to meet you halfway?)

TheScreamingEagles

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

For me the most interesting polling of the day, was with whom people preferred to be in coalition with, The Tories prefer to be in coalition with the Lib Dems, and The Kippers prefer to be in a coalition with Labour than the Tories.

Is a wrong assumption to assume that the Kippers are all disgruntled Tories.

Seems to me like an allegory for splitting up with someone after a long relationship and wanting to shag someone completely different, (maybe to get the ex to meet you halfway?)

But whatever you do, don't sleep with her sister and her best mate, concurrently, that really pisses the ex off.

anotherDave

RichardNabavi said:

Ipsos-MORI, Populus and YouGov are all showing a quite similar picture, but Survation is very different, with a much higher UKIP figure as usual but at the expense more of Labour than the Tories, compared with the other three.

ICM shows UKIP's 2013 gains coming more from Lab too.

Jan 2013: Con 33%, Lab 38%, LD 15%, UKIP 6%
Jan 2014: Con 32%, Lab 35%, LD 14%, UKIP 10%

As do the 2012 vs 2013 local election results.

http://www.markpack.org.uk/47012/how-ukip-is-damaging-labour-reprised/

TheScreamingEagles

Tongue firmly in cheek, the PM also recounted a day spent canvassing with the mayor, when a woman answered their knock on the door with the words: “Boris, you’re the father of one of my children.” A moment of horrified flustering by Mr Johnson was ended as she added: “It’s your daughter, I’m her maths teacher.”

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/boris-youre-the-father-of-one-of-my-children-at-school-says-maths-teacher-to-mayors-daughter-9067037.html

RodCrosby

How can one be in coalition with a party with zero seats?

ThomasNashe

Pulpstar said:

Imagine if we built a team for a 3 day 1 innings a side match with the English 1 day bowlers and the English Test batsmen.

Just imagine !

I'd fancy them against Bangladesh!

JosiasJessop

isam said:

@Josiasjessop

There are dozens of things that, if I were asked, I would either favour or not, but that don't really concern me and this is one of them I guess

I really have to ask: why, if you doesn't really concern you, are you not in favour of it? Why is your default position one of stopping a certain group of people from having the same rights as the rest of us?

Surely the default should be to allow equality?

ThomasNashe

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tongue firmly in cheek, the PM also recounted a day spent canvassing with the mayor, when a woman answered their knock on the door with the words: “Boris, you’re the father of one of my children.” A moment of horrified flustering by Mr Johnson was ended as she added: “It’s your daughter, I’m her maths teacher.”

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/boris-youre-the-father-of-one-of-my-children-at-school-says-maths-teacher-to-mayors-daughter-9067037.html

A career in stand-up beckons post-2015?

Quincel

TheScreamingEagles said:

If it weren't for the fixed term parliaments act, we'd be discussing whether the coalition would be going to the country this year.

Maybe, but why would Clegg go to the country with the LDs still below the teens and why would Cameron do it when he's behind but the economy is reviving?

TheScreamingEagles

Quincel said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

If it weren't for the fixed term parliaments act, we'd be discussing whether the coalition would be going to the country this year.

Maybe, but why would Clegg go to the country with the LDs still below the teens and why would Cameron do it when he's behind but the economy is reviving?

The element of surprise.

TGOHF

Cameron's gags from last nights dinner

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/matthewholehouse/100255311/westminster-correspondents-dinner-comedy-dave-roasts-boris/

Some crackers..

RodCrosby

Applying the L&N model to IPSOS we have:-

(Central forecast)

Con vote lead 7.8%
Con seat lead 65 seats

(10000 Monte Carlo simulations)

Chance of Tory vote lead: 100.0%
Chance of a Tory seat lead: 98.6%

Chance of a Hung Parliament: 54.2%
Chance of a Tory majority: 45.8%
Chance of a Labour majority: 0.0%

A slight strengthening of the Tory position from last month, probably just MOE, although chance of a Tory majority now at its highest since January 2012...

Lennon

TheScreamingEagles said:

Quincel said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

If it weren't for the fixed term parliaments act, we'd be discussing whether the coalition would be going to the country this year.

Maybe, but why would Clegg go to the country with the LDs still below the teens and why would Cameron do it when he's behind but the economy is reviving?

The element of surprise.

Of course calling it to be simultaneous with the Europeans would likely neuter UKIP in the Euros and prevent them building up a further head of steam. (Not that it applies, but theoretically)

JosiasJessop

Way off-topic:

In 1990, the Human Genome Project believed it would cost $3 billion and take 15 years to sequence the human genome.

In 1998, Ventor believed it would cost $300 million, and could be done in five years.

Now, we have machines that can sequence the maps of 1,800 individuals a year, at a cost of $1,000 per sample.

Whilst these are not quite analogous, I can't think of another area of technology that has seen this sort of growth. It is truly amazing.

richardDodd

Has Ed made his big speech yet, I didn't feel the earth move...and it's not even on the Sky scroller...somebody had a baby and a toddler has gone missing in Scotland

TheScreamingEagles

Lennon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Quincel said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

If it weren't for the fixed term parliaments act, we'd be discussing whether the coalition would be going to the country this year.

Maybe, but why would Clegg go to the country with the LDs still below the teens and why would Cameron do it when he's behind but the economy is reviving?

The element of surprise.

Of course calling it to be simultaneous with the Europeans would likely neuter UKIP in the Euros and prevent them building up a further head of steam. (Not that it applies, but theoretically)

Hold the General Election as the same day as the IndyRef.

anothernick

TheScreamingEagles said:

For me the most interesting polling of the day, was with whom people preferred to be in coalition with, The Tories prefer to be in coalition with the Lib Dems, and The Kippers prefer to be in a coalition with Labour than the Tories.

Is a wrong assumption to assume that the Kippers are all disgruntled Tories.

Indeed it is.

But the Tories desperately need to get back voters they have lost to UKIP - they can't win unless they do. Labour, on the other hand, remains in a winning position despite losing votes to UKIP - it cannot afford to be complacent but it's position is not as dire as the Tories.

TGOHF

richardDodd said:

Has Ed made his big speech yet, I didn't feel the earth move...and it's not even on the Sky scroller...somebody had a baby and a toddler has gone missing in Scotland

Ed asked for a "reckoning"

I think he meant we would all get a Rechnung.

Scott_P

TGOHF said:

Ed asked for a "reckoning"

I think he meant we would all get a Rechnung.

It was potentially an important speech.

The Tory message at the next election is going to be "Don't let Labour wreck it"

Labour's message is now "We are committed to wrecking it"

@BBCNormanS: The choice at next election on the economy is between "a big reckoning or steady as she goes" says @Ed_Miliband

@ToryTreasury: Ed Miliband's policy wiped £1bn off RBS & Lloyds shares this morning -a loss for taxpayers. Chuka: price worth paying http://t.co/ZEJ2oHfgDi

TGOHF

David Buik ‏@truemagic68 47s

No internal M&A between banks under next Labour government. True restrictive practices! George Orwell will be smiling from under the daisies

Cyclefree

FPT: "

SMukesh said:

Norman Smith picks up on the key issue of the speech.

Miliband is seeking to define `Cost of Living` as not about wages exceeding inflation etc. but about the middle and working class worrying about their jobs,incomes,pensions and about where the next generation of jobs for their children is going to come from.

"

Well, I worry about all those things. And I worry that a Labour government would make them all worse for me and for my children.

Pulpstar

Oh what complete bollocks from @Torytreasury Lloyds has been on a big upswing recently. A penny dropped off the value today, in the scheme of things a billion £ swing in market cap is neither here nor there. Doubt it has anything to do with Ed Miliband. When it goes up tommorow are they going to claim it wos Osborne wot done it ?

Complete crap and horseshit.

Scott_P

@JoeMurphyLondon: Labour admits Ed Miliband’s bank break-up pledge will hit taxpayers’ shares http://t.co/8v0EoUEUCq

RichardNabavi

So, after inflicing serious damage on the energy industry and power-generation investment, having a go at housebuilders, and now apparently deliberately damaging the banking sector and its huge taxpayers' investment, where next for Ed Miliband?

The obvious next sector for him to try to wreck is supermarkets. In fact he'd hardly need to change this morning's speech, the same ignorant platitudes would do fine.

You read it first here.

Cyclefree

Pulpstar said:

Oh what complete bollocks from @Torytreasury Lloyds has been on a big upswing recently. A penny dropped off the value today, in the scheme of things a billion £ swing in market cap is neither here nor there. Doubt it has anything to do with Ed Miliband. When it goes up tommorow are they going to claim it wos Osborne wot done it ?

Complete crap and horseshit.

Labour have already admitted that they don't mind harming the taxpayers' interests i.e. all those middle and working class people they also claim to be concerned about.

Pulpstar

Cyclefree said:

Pulpstar said:

Oh what complete bollocks from @Torytreasury Lloyds has been on a big upswing recently. A penny dropped off the value today, in the scheme of things a billion £ swing in market cap is neither here nor there. Doubt it has anything to do with Ed Miliband. When it goes up tommorow are they going to claim it wos Osborne wot done it ?

Complete crap and horseshit.

Labour have already admitted that they don't mind harming the taxpayers' interests i.e. all those middle and working class people they also claim to be concerned about.

Yes but...

To claim a 0.82 penny drop is as a result of what Mr Miliband is saying is laughable.

isam

JosiasJessop said:

isam said:

@Josiasjessop

There are dozens of things that, if I were asked, I would either favour or not, but that don't really concern me and this is one of them I guess

I really have to ask: why, if you doesn't really concern you, are you not in favour of it? Why is your default position one of stopping a certain group of people from having the same rights as the rest of us?

Surely the default should be to allow equality?

Jesus leave it would you?

I'm against it without being passionately bothered about stopping it, so what?

TheScreamingEagles

RichardNabavi said:

So, after inflicing serious damage on the energy industry and power-generation investment, having a go at housebuilders, and now apparently deliberately damaging the banking sector and its huge taxpayers' investment, where next for Ed Miliband?

The obvious next sector for him to try to wreck is supermarkets. In fact he'd hardly need to change this morning's speech, the same ignorant platitudes would do fine.

You read it first here.

He'll be able to combine it actually, tesco are launching current accounts this year.

TGOHF

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100255345/a-reckoning-is-coming-ed-miliband-but-not-the-one-youre-hoping-for/

"Partly because of the fleeting success of Miliband’s cost of living speech at Labour conference, the full enormity of the shift in the terms of the political debate over the last 12 months has not yet registered within Labour’s ranks. Perhaps it never will. But this time last year Labour was still putting up a fight on the economy. Now they are meekly waving the white flag."

Quincel

TheScreamingEagles said:

RichardNabavi said:

So, after inflicing serious damage on the energy industry and power-generation investment, having a go at housebuilders, and now apparently deliberately damaging the banking sector and its huge taxpayers' investment, where next for Ed Miliband?

The obvious next sector for him to try to wreck is supermarkets. In fact he'd hardly need to change this morning's speech, the same ignorant platitudes would do fine.

You read it first here.

He'll be able to combine it actually, tesco are launching current accounts this year.

Force supermarkets to sell branches to Romanian immigrants to run as corner-shops?

taffys

Have to feel sorry for Chuukkkkaaa....

Having to defend this lunacy while Miliband gets the Occupy tendency worship....

Poor s8d

dr_spyn

@taffys

Ends up on top of the bill with Ed M, sharing Guido's caption contest.

http://order-order.com/2014/01/17/friday-caption-contest-weird-dudes-edition/

Pulpstar

Christ - quoting Dan Hodges ?

dr_spyn

Guido Fawkes ‏@GuidoFawkes 1m
Balls lies to #WATO "I have complete confidence in Ed Miliband as leader of the Labour Party".

MikeK

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

isam said:

Averages 38/31/12/12

Can't see why that isn't a good indicator?

Because in the past, it hasn't been a good indicator.

Hmm that doesn't seem to make sense to me.. But it is what it is

Surely not prompting for UKIP is as old fashioned and crazy as opposing gay marriage?!

Ukip the Alan Turing of VI polls?!

Surely not prompting for UKIP means all the polls are skewed to depress the UKIP percentage.
It's as if Populus and Ipsos-Mori wished they didn't exist and can get back to - to them - sensible 3 party polling.

I believe both these pollsters will suffer in the end by falling flat on their proverbial faces, as the real polling results come in. Of course they may change their methodology by then as they realise they are going to suffer a big hit.

[Deleted User]

PM Miliband would need a new Bank of England governor:

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/iainmartin1/100255229/ed-milibands-promised-break-up-of-rbs-and-lloyds-puts-mark-carney-on-notice/

TheScreamingEagles

MikeK said:

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

isam said:

Averages 38/31/12/12

Can't see why that isn't a good indicator?

Because in the past, it hasn't been a good indicator.

Hmm that doesn't seem to make sense to me.. But it is what it is

Surely not prompting for UKIP is as old fashioned and crazy as opposing gay marriage?!

Ukip the Alan Turing of VI polls?!

Surely not prompting for UKIP means all the polls are skewed to depress the UKIP percentage.
It's as if Populus and Ipsos-Mori wished they didn't exist and can get back to - to them - sensible 3 party polling.

I believe both these pollsters will suffer in the end by falling flat on their proverbial faces, as the real polling results come in. Of course they may change their methodology by then as they realise they are going to suffer a big hit.

You keep on ignoring the fact, the most accurate pollster in the locals last year, was ComRes who didn't prompt for UKIP.

Survation did, and weren't the most accurate.

CarlottaVance

Clearly when only two banks control 46% of the current account market something is amiss.....which two banks would those be then, and how did we get where we are?

TheScreamingEagles

Quincel said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RichardNabavi said:

So, after inflicing serious damage on the energy industry and power-generation investment, having a go at housebuilders, and now apparently deliberately damaging the banking sector and its huge taxpayers' investment, where next for Ed Miliband?

The obvious next sector for him to try to wreck is supermarkets. In fact he'd hardly need to change this morning's speech, the same ignorant platitudes would do fine.

You read it first here.

He'll be able to combine it actually, tesco are launching current accounts this year.

Force supermarkets to sell branches to Romanian immigrants to run as corner-shops?

If they force Waitrose to sell my local store to Aldi or Lidl, I'll be really angry.

And I'm a fan of a Lidl and Aldi as it keeps the plebian riff raff out of my Waitrose.

taffys

PM Miliband would need a new Bank of England governor:


It wouldn't entirely surprise me if a Miliband victory was followed quickly by Carney's resignation.

dr_spyn

2008, Brown forces Lloyds to merge with HBoS, 2014 Miliband wants to break up the banks. Confused by Labour's wunch of banking policies.

Mick_Pork

Pulpstar said:

Oh what complete bollocks from @Torytreasury Lloyds has been on a big upswing recently. A penny dropped off the value today, in the scheme of things a billion £ swing in market cap is neither here nor there. Doubt it has anything to do with Ed Miliband. When it goes up tommorow are they going to claim it wos Osborne wot done it ?

Complete crap and horseshit.

True but imagine the fear from the inept tory spinners as they slowly begin to realise there is no policy on which a desperate Cammie and Osbrowne won't try to triangulate that makes a gullible fool of them later on. The same out of touch twits who were ranting in such a deranged manner against the Energy price freeze were completely clueless that Cammie had postured on forcing the energy companies to lower prices even before little Ed did.
Or indeed that the public didn't share their hysterical spin of that as the polling showed.

Not that little Ed's bank posturing is particularly convincing but it's still a damn sight more convincing than the out of touch tory spinners who somehow don't realise the banks are hardly viewed any more favourably by the public than the Energy companies.

Casino_Royale

I expect the Labour lead will fluctuate for throughout the year but with a general downward trend. That said, nothing’s guaranteed. The Conservative leadership appear to keep making similar mistakes:

(1) Underestimating Ed Miliband and relying on the “Ed is crap” fallacy (he isn’t)
(2) Failing to take the initiative – the Tories are giving an impression they just respond to opposition initiatives (banks, energy firms, minimum wage) Voters are picking up on this.
(3) No “big idea” other than ‘balance the books’ – related to (2) everyone knows the Tories are cutting the deficit, reforming welfare and having a go at bringing immigration under control. However, since the failure of the ‘Big Society’ they have struggled to articulate a new vision that resonates
(4) Taking its support base for granted – the Conservative leadership need to not just stop insulting UKIP, and send out the odd whizzy email on its progress to lapsed members/supporters. There needs to be a concerted effort to actively charm its base.
It’s a heady mix of complacency, ostrichism, arrogance, confused messages and blind hope.

The Conservative leadership needs to show some leadership and humility and engage on all these points. I’m still not feeling it. The Tories should never have lost people like Sean Fear and myself as members.

My money is still on a (much weaker) coalition being elected in 2015. However, I think it’ll be solidly booted out in 2020. Why? Because I think the only reason voters will reelect the coalition is simply because they have little faith in Ed Miliband and Labour’s ability to cut the deficit. However, as soon as this is done the Tories will go bye-bye. It could then be a question of whether they ever come close to power ever again – at least under FPTP.

RichardNabavi

dr_spyn said:

Balls lies to #WATO "I have complete confidence in Ed Miliband as leader of the Labour Party".

Oh dear, are things as bad as that in the Shadow Cabinet.

Still, you have to admire Balls' sheer arrogance. It's supposed to be the leader who has confidence in his Shadow Chancellor, not the other way round.

CarlottaVance

Patrick said:

PM Miliband would need a new Bank of England governor:

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/iainmartin1/100255229/ed-milibands-promised-break-up-of-rbs-and-lloyds-puts-mark-carney-on-notice/

Well, that'll reassure the markets after a Labour victory......

FrankBooth

rcs1000 said:

Libs clearly benefitting from Rennard revelations...

That is a puzzle. Perhaps there is an assumption out there that this sort of thing is standard stuff in Westminster and it's good to see the Lib Dems taking it seriously (okay we can argue whether they actually have taken it seriously enough, but it's all about perception). It may be that to get the full benefit though, Rennard will now have to be publicly flogged by the Party. Has Clegg got the stomach to do it?

Quincel

FrankBooth said:

rcs1000 said:

Libs clearly benefitting from Rennard revelations...

That is a puzzle. Perhaps there is an assumption out there that this sort of thing is standard stuff in Westminster and it's good to see the Lib Dems taking it seriously (okay we can argue whether they actually have taken it seriously enough, but it's all about perception). It may be that to get the full benefit though, Rennard will now have to be publicly flogged by the Party. Has Clegg got the stomach to do it?

It's random variance/anger at them fading. I bet you no more than 10% of people would be able to tell you anything about the Rennard developments this week even if prompted.

Pulpstar

RichardNabavi said:

dr_spyn said:

Balls lies to #WATO "I have complete confidence in Ed Miliband as leader of the Labour Party".

Oh dear, are things as bad as that in the Shadow Cabinet.

Still, you have to admire Balls' sheer arrogance. It's supposed to be the leader who has confidence in his Shadow Chancellor, not the other way round.

Good Lord Did he really say that. Amusing.

taffys

Well, that'll reassure the markets after a Labour victory....

I guess it conceivable the Miliband effect could start to hurt the recovery well before the election.

Investment and hiring decisions might well get postponed, and people might curb spending.

RichardNabavi

The politics of Ed Miliband's series of wrecking-ball policy announcements are very interesting. If you believe the polls, he is in a leading position, and could afford a little swingback to the Tories and still get a comfortable majority. It would have to be quite a big swingback to keep him out of No 10. Therefore, you'd expect his strategy to be one of not frightening the horses too much, by keeping things vague so that Labour and especially ex-LibDem voters get a warm cuddly feeling whilst at the same time not offering much specific ammunition to his opponents.

Instead he has engaged on a striking series of initiatives which, if you are a supporter, you would call 'innovative and bold', but which anyone else would call 'irresponsible and reckless'.

So why isn't he playing safe? Two possibilities come to mind:

(1) He thinks he's going to lose badly, unless he shakes things up with populist banker-bashing and other such nonsense which he (surely?) must know are nonsense.

(2) He actually believes all the nonsense.

It seems to me that (2) is the more likely explanation.

Pulpstar

Lloyds shares have rallied off the low, up half a penny.

What is the cause of this miraculous recovery ?

FrankBooth

I see the usual lot are on here bemoaning Ed's speech on banking. I've not seen the speech and I have reservations about Ed (less moral indignation and more common sense would be nice - though perhaps that would make it more diificult to cut through the media?) however try reading Philip Stephens ft column on banks yesterday - he being a broadly pro-market commentator. It beggars belief that some think banking business as usual is going to appeal to the electorate.

Life_ina_market_town

RichardNabavi said:

So why isn't he playing safe? Two possibilities come to mind:

(1) He thinks he's going to lose badly, unless he shakes things up with populist banker-bashing and other such nonsense which he (surely?) must know are nonsense.

(2) He actually believes all the nonsense.

It seems to me that (2) is the more likely explanation.

Indeed. Bear in mind this in an alumnus of Corpus we are talking about.

BenM

A Dan Hodges piece makes an appearance.

Wasn't Ed supposed to have been bundled into a passing car by now?

Yet 17 months out from an election Ed commands a 9 point lead in a very different parliament to those that have come before.

More to the point has Hodges got anything right in his mnomaniacal crusade against Miliband Junior?

compouter2

Applying the BS model to IPSOS we have:-

(Peruvian horse-drawn carriage forecast)

Con vote lead 0%
Con seat lead Nil

(10000 Guatemalan simulations)

Chance of Tory vote lead: 0%
Chance of a Tory seat lead: 0%

Chance of a Hung Parliament: 13.3%
Chance of a Tory majority: 0%
Chance of a Labour majority: 86.7%
Chance of a polling crossover goalpost movement: 100%

compouter2

BenM said:

A Dan Hodges piece makes an appearance.

Wasn't Ed supposed to have been bundled into a passing car by now?

Yet 17 months out from an election Ed commands a 9 point lead in a very different parliament to those that have come before.

More to the point has Hodges got anything right in his mnomaniacal crusade against Miliband Junior?

He always puts the mockers on the Tory Party in the polls. The Labour lead falls to 3-4%, he predicts crossover and then it shoots back up. Oh, and don't mention his marginal poll, it's been wiped from history.

Dan Hodges = Avery LP = Constant polling crossover goalpost movers

compouter2

Pulpstar said:

Lloyds shares have rallied off the low, up half a penny.

What is the cause of this miraculous recovery ?

Gideon showing a bit of leg?

Cyclefree

taffys said:

PM Miliband would need a new Bank of England governor:


It wouldn't entirely surprise me if a Miliband victory was followed quickly by Carney's resignation.

Carney's only agreed to be here for 5 years, no? Certainly uncertainty about the BoE will not be helpful particularly if Labour decided to relax the requirements on inflation or impose other requirements or, in effect, seek to reverse the BoE's independence. Uncertainty like that could have very real world effects on inflation, interest and mortgage rates.

As for breaking banks up: banks will be delighted to get rid of the loss-making or least profitable parts of their business. They will close or sell branches in inconvenient or out of the way locations - cue for cries of pain from locals and their MPs about this; they will get rid of unprofitable customers - cue for more cries of pain from those unable to access basic bank accounts; they will try and abolish free banking - cue even more cries of pain.

Quite who is going to buy all the bits which will be sold is another question. Banks are currently retrenching on all fronts, across Europe and elsewhere. There will be more sellers than buyers in the UK market.

I'm all in favour of a reorganised banking system, one better and more honest and more effective than the one we've had for too long - but my concern is that these proposals and Labour's approach to the issue is ill-thought out and will have all sorts of unintended consequences likely to harm those Labour want to try and help.

It's not the aim I have an issue with. It's the apparent lack of thought about what is really wrong and how best to correct it that's the issue, as it is with most of Labour's policies, frankly.

[Deleted User]

I think it is becoming clear Ed has some political skills. He is going to push populist lefty insanity to win the GE and be a catastrophic clusterfu<k of a PM after that.

Pulpstar

RichardNabavi said:

The politics of Ed Miliband's series of wrecking-ball policy announcements are very interesting. If you believe the polls, he is in a leading position, and could afford a little swingback to the Tories and still get a comfortable majority. It would have to be quite a big swingback to keep him out of No 10. Therefore, you'd expect his strategy to be one of not frightening the horses too much, by keeping things vague so that Labour and especially ex-LibDem voters get a warm cuddly feeling whilst at the same time not offering much specific ammunition to his opponents.

Instead he has engaged on a striking series of initiatives which, if you are a supporter, you would call 'innovative and bold', but which anyone else would call 'irresponsible and reckless'.

So why isn't he playing safe? Two possibilities come to mind:

(1) He thinks he's going to lose badly, unless he shakes things up with populist banker-bashing and other such nonsense which he (surely?) must know are nonsense.

(2) He actually believes all the nonsense.

It seems to me that (2) is the more likely explanation.

I think he believes it, but he also knows he needs to generally keep his mouth shut to have best chance.

So the strategy is to announce something totally half baked but which if shaped right could have half a semblance of a decent policy in there somewhere.

The Conservatives announce something or other on said subject and it looks like Ed is steering the narrative.

Luckily for Ed he's got a lead in the polls and doesn't even need one to win.

taffys

The labour posters have a point. We can knock all the holes in ed that we want but he remains stubbornly ahead. In some cases well ahead.

compouter2

taffys said:

The labour posters have a point. We can knock all the holes in ed that we want but he remains stubbornly ahead. In some cases well ahead.

OK....where is the punchline?

Pulpstar

Scottish independence: William Hague joins Scots-EU debate

Time to put the house on Yes ?

compouter2

Wait there PB Hodges you are spoiling the fun here, I preferred it when we had post after post of Ed is crap, no matter what the article was about.

BenM

The Tory "welfare, Europe 'n foreigners" line isn't working.

I think they should relax the rhetoric in these areas - which it is clear is not attracting new voters - and continue to go hard on the economy (in the hope the current upswing lasts - I have my doubts).

Move back to the centre in other words.

The Tories are now so unpalatable in most parts of the UK they're unelectable.

Pulpstar

Worst form of gambling in the world ?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-25771651

Anyone know what the average RTP is on bingo ?

Far worse than FOBTs I'd have thought. As bad as a fruit machine ?!

Socrates

@Cyclefree

I'm pretty sure the Bank of England has enough smart people inside it to come up with a system where banks aren't allowed to just remove their weakest customers. For all everyone is bashing Miliband for this, it is something that is done in the United States. It's also worth bearing in mind that Carney said it wouldn't "necessarily" mean improved competition, but that doesn't mean it couldn't, if done right.

taffys

OK....where is the punchline?


No punchline. Personally I think the polls between elections are a bit of a sentiment indicator, and its a horrible sh*t January. But that's only worth a couple of percentage points. Ed is horribly, disastrously, pitifully wrong, but he's ahead.

No point denying it.

TheScreamingEagles

Russian President Vladimir Putin says gays should feel welcome at the upcoming Winter Olympic Games in Sochi, but they must “leave the children in peace.”

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/putin-gays-must-leave-children-in-peace/2014/01/17/31140ae8-7f7c-11e3-97d3-b9925ce2c57b_story.html