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The French election – the fight to be in the final two – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,161
edited March 2022 in General
imageThe French election – the fight to be in the final two – politicalbetting.com

The big 2022 election in Europe is the French one which takes place on two Sundays in April two weeks apart.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    Just reading about Trump's comments.

    He's not hot any less deranged.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    Second like Le Pen.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    I'm now very curious how this wasn't an issue in 2017, or was it close-run then too?
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    Sorry to intrude on a new thread, but FPT .......
    Northern_Al said:

    moonshine said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So, at work it was trailed by the government they were going to target Kremlin allied Russians/Brits in the UK via the financial services system.

    What was announced today is so minimal and ineffective the government may as well have not bothered.

    For this is alone Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak need to quit or be removed.

    I couldn’t believe they are only getting around tk sanctioning Bank Rossiya now. It’s been known as the FSB Bank and Putin’s Piggybank for at least 15 years!

    One wonders if the national security wing of the party will look today and finally think, yup this dude’s gotta go.
    It's a funny old world when it looks as if the Labour Party would be tougher on Russia in respect of sanctions than the Tories.

    But that's where we are: I reckon Starmer would have been tougher than Johnson, and would have handled the crisis better all round. Bad news for Tories, I think.
    I think you're absolutely right that Starmer would have been tougher than Johnson.

    One thing that we should now expect from Johnson is that the fine words are never backed by substance, and so it has proved again today.

    On Starmer, I have no doubt that he believes what he says on Russian sanctions. In addition, it of course provides an opportunity to show once again that Labour has moved on light years from Corbyn in the eyes of the general public.

    There is though a further internal political consideration for Starmer. Corbyn himself has led his fellow travellers down such a deep hole on this issue that many even of his remaining supporters will be looking on aghast at his behaviour. Making excuses for and encouraging appeasement of an authoritarian leader using his position for personal aggrandisation for him and his cronies while trying to extending subjugation of his nation to neighbouring ones isn't a good look. What would George Orwell have made of Corbyn? It's hard to conceive of a turn of events that could have accelerated the isolation and marginalisation of the holdouts of the far left within the Labour Party, even if Starmer had scripted it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373
    If Marine Le Pen can't get on the ballot due to splits in her right wing coalition draining away support, that would be really funny.

    It would be almost as funny as Vladimir Putin accidentally droning himself on a visit to Luhansk.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    Quincel said:

    I'm now very curious how this wasn't an issue in 2017, or was it close-run then too?

    Maybe (and I don't know this, just speculating) it's that the far right doesn't have the same depth of elected officials at local level as the rest of the political spectrum, because they tend to get ganged up against in the 2nd round. So when there is an even split dividing the far right extremists (as between Le Pen and Zemmour now, but not in 2017) it becomes a much more difficult issue for them.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633
    Pro_Rata said:

    Just reading about Trump's comments.

    He's not hot any less deranged.

    It really is quite astonishing. The former POTUS backing Putin.

    https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1496221147729481732?t=JmWXbtmH-lSlbHAz8ulKSA&s=19

  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,971
    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Quincel said:

    I'm now very curious how this wasn't an issue in 2017, or was it close-run then too?

    Maybe (and I don't know this, just speculating) it's that the far right doesn't have the same depth of elected officials at local level as the rest of the political spectrum, because they tend to get ganged up against in the 2nd round. So when there is an even split dividing the far right extremists (as between Le Pen and Zemmour now, but not in 2017) it becomes a much more difficult issue for them.
    Indeed. Adding up her and his numbers it well exceeds 500.

    Looks like a deal will have to be done between those two, but who'll be prepared to blink?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,717
    edited February 2022
    Bomb shelters in eastern Ukraine are locked up according to a local Brit interviewed on R4.

    edit: Australian.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Hmm, up to a point, It's not quite right to say that Marine Le Pen might be suspending her campaign, but instead (as the article Mike links to makes clear) she's concentrating on getting the nominations she needs, I'm pretty sure we had similar articles last time.

    The most important sentence in the France24 article is the last one:

    Aucun candidat bien placé dans les sondages n'a jamais échoué à les recueillir lors d'une élection présidentielle.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,915
    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Sorry to intrude on a new thread, but FPT .......

    Northern_Al said:

    moonshine said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So, at work it was trailed by the government they were going to target Kremlin allied Russians/Brits in the UK via the financial services system.

    What was announced today is so minimal and ineffective the government may as well have not bothered.

    For this is alone Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak need to quit or be removed.

    I couldn’t believe they are only getting around tk sanctioning Bank Rossiya now. It’s been known as the FSB Bank and Putin’s Piggybank for at least 15 years!

    One wonders if the national security wing of the party will look today and finally think, yup this dude’s gotta go.
    It's a funny old world when it looks as if the Labour Party would be tougher on Russia in respect of sanctions than the Tories.

    But that's where we are: I reckon Starmer would have been tougher than Johnson, and would have handled the crisis better all round. Bad news for Tories, I think.
    I think you're absolutely right that Starmer would have been tougher than Johnson.

    One thing that we should now expect from Johnson is that the fine words are never backed by substance, and so it has proved again today.

    On Starmer, I have no doubt that he believes what he says on Russian sanctions. In addition, it of course provides an opportunity to show once again that Labour has moved on light years from Corbyn in the eyes of the general public.

    There is though a further internal political consideration for Starmer. Corbyn himself has led his fellow travellers down such a deep hole on this issue that many even of his remaining supporters will be looking on aghast at his behaviour. Making excuses for and encouraging appeasement of an authoritarian leader using his position for personal aggrandisation for him and his cronies while trying to extending subjugation of his nation to neighbouring ones isn't a good look. What would George Orwell have made of Corbyn? It's hard to conceive of a turn of events that could have accelerated the isolation and marginalisation of the holdouts of the far left within the Labour Party, even if Starmer had scripted it.
    Twelve of Corbyn's 'fellow travellers' are still Labour MPs who signed the STW statement condemning NATO as the aggressors just four days ago.

    I'd say 'light years' on from Corbyn might come some time after the Labour whip is removed from such MPs.

    https://labouroutlook.org/2022/02/18/ukraine-join-stop-the-war-jeremy-corbyn-diane-abbott-more-in-speaking-out-against-britains-aggressive-posturing/
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    ydoethur said:

    If Marine Le Pen can't get on the ballot due to splits in her right wing coalition draining away support, that would be really funny.

    It would be almost as funny as Vladimir Putin accidentally droning himself on a visit to Luhansk.

    You say "accidentally". I say "give that guy at GCHQ a performance bonus...."
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Foxy said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Just reading about Trump's comments.

    He's not hot any less deranged.

    It really is quite astonishing. The former POTUS backing Putin.

    https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1496221147729481732?t=JmWXbtmH-lSlbHAz8ulKSA&s=19

    Fellow thug.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    Foxy said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Just reading about Trump's comments.

    He's not hot any less deranged.

    It really is quite astonishing. The former POTUS backing Putin.

    https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1496221147729481732?t=JmWXbtmH-lSlbHAz8ulKSA&s=19

    "I know he very well"

    Yes. We bloody know that. He's got Trump's arse thanks to some deal or other. :angry:

    Maybe, just maybe, this will be finally when Americans see through Trump. He's no American patriot.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    Foxy said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Just reading about Trump's comments.

    He's not hot any less deranged.

    It really is quite astonishing. The former POTUS backing Putin.

    https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1496221147729481732?t=JmWXbtmH-lSlbHAz8ulKSA&s=19

    Indeed, deranged. The question for me is now, just how deranged are those who up to now have chosen to follow him down every rabbit hole.

    I suspect that, even for them, "Putin is a genius" may prove to be a much harder concept to fall in behind than "Covid is fake news." Are they really prepared to fly the Russian flag besides the Stars and Stripes?


  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926
    SouthamObserver said:

    Looking at the almost non-existent UK sanctions against Putin and his mates in light of those imposed by the EU and the US and it’s hard to avoid the conclusion that the Tories have been bought. This is a deeply shameful day for the UK.

    What nonsense. If they have been bought, why are there any sanctions in the first place? Johnson himself said that it was just the beginning.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Federation Council has authorized the use of the Russian army in Donbas “republics”, by which - as Putin confirmed on Tue - Russia means entire territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. That’s hopefully the geographical limitation of possible hostilities for now.

    https://twitter.com/leonidragozin/status/1496247205929586689
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    Macron badly needs either Le Pen or Zemmour to be on the ballot and I expect that behind the scenes efforts are being made to ensure that happens.

    The ideal situation for Macron would be for only one of them to qualify as I think that that would pretty much ensure that his opponent in the run-off would be on the far-right.

    If neither or both qualify them Pecresse has a reasonable chance of making the final round and Macron would probably prefer not to face her in the run off.

    We shall know for certain in 10 days time but my money is firmly on Macron.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714

    Joyce Karam
    @Joyce_Karam
    ·
    29m
    JUST IN: US Sec. of State Antony Blinken Cancels his meeting with Russia's Sergie #Lavrov on Thursday following actions in Ukraine.

    "It does not make sense to go ahead with this meeting at this time."

    https://twitter.com/Joyce_Karam
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,011
    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Foxy said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Just reading about Trump's comments.

    He's not hot any less deranged.

    It really is quite astonishing. The former POTUS backing Putin.

    https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1496221147729481732?t=JmWXbtmH-lSlbHAz8ulKSA&s=19

    Indeed, deranged. The question for me is now, just how deranged are those who up to now have chosen to follow him down every rabbit hole.

    I suspect that, even for them, "Putin is a genius" may prove to be a much harder concept to fall in behind than "Covid is fake news." Are they really prepared to fly the Russian flag besides the Stars and Stripes?


    They brought a Confederate flag into the Capitol, so anything is possible.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    At least one member of the Left is not messing around with 'Putin may have a point' bollx:

    https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/1496248529244856320
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    Quincel said:

    I'm now very curious how this wasn't an issue in 2017, or was it close-run then too?

    Haven't they now made it public rather than secret? Many mayors, particularly of tiny, tiny places don't go public about their politics.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633
    rottenborough said:

    At least one member of the Left is not messing around with 'Putin may have a point' bollx:

    https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/1496248529244856320

    No, it is the far right taking Putins side:


  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652
    RobD said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Looking at the almost non-existent UK sanctions against Putin and his mates in light of those imposed by the EU and the US and it’s hard to avoid the conclusion that the Tories have been bought. This is a deeply shameful day for the UK.

    What nonsense. If they have been bought, why are there any sanctions in the first place? Johnson himself said that it was just the beginning.

    It was impossible to do nothing, so they did next to nothing.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633
    OllyT said:

    Macron badly needs either Le Pen or Zemmour to be on the ballot and I expect that behind the scenes efforts are being made to ensure that happens.

    The ideal situation for Macron would be for only one of them to qualify as I think that that would pretty much ensure that his opponent in the run-off would be on the far-right.

    If neither or both qualify them Pecresse has a reasonable chance of making the final round and Macron would probably prefer not to face her in the run off.

    We shall know for certain in 10 days time but my money is firmly on Macron.

    When are the deadlines for the two polls?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    This is a good thread.
    Greetings from a Finnish leftist! The international situation has apparently left many people in the English-speaking countries confused. I write this thread in the hopes of sharing a perspective I believe is widely if not unilaterally shared in Finland, most leftists included.
    https://twitter.com/jmkorhonen/status/1496047631969234944
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926
    SouthamObserver said:

    RobD said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Looking at the almost non-existent UK sanctions against Putin and his mates in light of those imposed by the EU and the US and it’s hard to avoid the conclusion that the Tories have been bought. This is a deeply shameful day for the UK.

    What nonsense. If they have been bought, why are there any sanctions in the first place? Johnson himself said that it was just the beginning.

    It was impossible to do nothing, so they did next to nothing.

    Na, if they had been "bought out", they'd have done nothing. Utter nonsense to call it a deeply shameful day.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    BlancheLivermore said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Sorry to intrude on a new thread, but FPT .......

    Northern_Al said:

    moonshine said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So, at work it was trailed by the government they were going to target Kremlin allied Russians/Brits in the UK via the financial services system.

    What was announced today is so minimal and ineffective the government may as well have not bothered.

    For this is alone Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak need to quit or be removed.

    I couldn’t believe they are only getting around tk sanctioning Bank Rossiya now. It’s been known as the FSB Bank and Putin’s Piggybank for at least 15 years!

    One wonders if the national security wing of the party will look today and finally think, yup this dude’s gotta go.
    It's a funny old world when it looks as if the Labour Party would be tougher on Russia in respect of sanctions than the Tories.

    But that's where we are: I reckon Starmer would have been tougher than Johnson, and would have handled the crisis better all round. Bad news for Tories, I think.
    I think you're absolutely right that Starmer would have been tougher than Johnson.

    One thing that we should now expect from Johnson is that the fine words are never backed by substance, and so it has proved again today.

    On Starmer, I have no doubt that he believes what he says on Russian sanctions. In addition, it of course provides an opportunity to show once again that Labour has moved on light years from Corbyn in the eyes of the general public.

    There is though a further internal political consideration for Starmer. Corbyn himself has led his fellow travellers down such a deep hole on this issue that many even of his remaining supporters will be looking on aghast at his behaviour. Making excuses for and encouraging appeasement of an authoritarian leader using his position for personal aggrandisation for him and his cronies while trying to extending subjugation of his nation to neighbouring ones isn't a good look. What would George Orwell have made of Corbyn? It's hard to conceive of a turn of events that could have accelerated the isolation and marginalisation of the holdouts of the far left within the Labour Party, even if Starmer had scripted it.
    Twelve of Corbyn's 'fellow travellers' are still Labour MPs who signed the STW statement condemning NATO as the aggressors just four days ago.

    I'd say 'light years' on from Corbyn might come some time after the Labour whip is removed from such MPs.

    https://labouroutlook.org/2022/02/18/ukraine-join-stop-the-war-jeremy-corbyn-diane-abbott-more-in-speaking-out-against-britains-aggressive-posturing/
    It'll take a few years still, but when you're travelling at the speed of light you're still making progress fast even in terms of light years. One step at a time. The end game seems most likely to be in the fallout immediately after the next GE after Corbyn is unwise enough to stand as an independent candidate.

    The fact that there were only 12 is in itself significant and indicative of others refusing their support. So the marginalisation is happening.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,874
    OllyT said:

    Macron badly needs either Le Pen or Zemmour to be on the ballot and I expect that behind the scenes efforts are being made to ensure that happens.

    The ideal situation for Macron would be for only one of them to qualify as I think that that would pretty much ensure that his opponent in the run-off would be on the far-right.

    If neither or both qualify them Pecresse has a reasonable chance of making the final round and Macron would probably prefer not to face her in the run off.

    We shall know for certain in 10 days time but my money is firmly on Macron.

    On all the current hypothetical second round run offs, Macron wins - he beats Le Pen by 10 points, Pecresse by 12 and Zemmour by 20 or more. Pecresse got a brief boost after winning the LR primary in December but she's made little headway since and now polls consistently behind Le Pen but, as OGH says, Pecresse is guaranteed to be in the race - currently Le Pen and Zemmour aren't.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839
    RobD said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Looking at the almost non-existent UK sanctions against Putin and his mates in light of those imposed by the EU and the US and it’s hard to avoid the conclusion that the Tories have been bought. This is a deeply shameful day for the UK.

    What nonsense. If they have been bought, why are there any sanctions in the first place? Johnson himself said that it was just the beginning.
    Because the sanctions are on carefully selected Putin cronies who have nothing to do with the UK, and a collection of silly little Crimean banks? The Conservatives are doing an excellent impression of foot-dragging to spare their mates pain - or, at the very least, to give them time to move as much of their loot elsewhere as possible, before anything vaguely resembling serious sanctions are actually imposed.

    Of course, Johnson is alleging that the Government has something more substantive in the pipeline - except that (whilst, as always, one stands to be corrected by events,) there's no particular reason to suppose that this is true. Quite apart from anything else, the Prime Minister is a compulsive liar.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,818
    RobD said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    RobD said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Looking at the almost non-existent UK sanctions against Putin and his mates in light of those imposed by the EU and the US and it’s hard to avoid the conclusion that the Tories have been bought. This is a deeply shameful day for the UK.

    What nonsense. If they have been bought, why are there any sanctions in the first place? Johnson himself said that it was just the beginning.

    It was impossible to do nothing, so they did next to nothing.

    Na, if they had been "bought out", they'd have done nothing. Utter nonsense to call it a deeply shameful day.
    Why have the last three Tory PMs accepted six figure sums to spend time with the ex wife of a former Putin minister?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Here's my understanding of EU sanctions package proposed to member states this morning over Russia/Ukraine...

    1/Sanction all Russian Duma lawmakers.

    2/ Asset Freeze on 3 Russian banks with links to separatist regions in east Ukraine...

    3/ Sovereign debt freeze and a ban on lending to the Russian government and central bank

    4/Extension of the current trade ban on annexed Crimea to separatist areas. 2/2

    https://twitter.com/laurnorman/status/1496088489338753027

    In what way is this significantly more than the U.K. is doing?
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    Foxy said:

    rottenborough said:

    At least one member of the Left is not messing around with 'Putin may have a point' bollx:

    https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/1496248529244856320

    No, it is the far right taking Putins side:


    I would submit that horseshoe theory is proving its worth again.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652
    Castex has called on LREM mayors to sign for Le Pen, and MoDem have made a similar proposal. Obviously the pro-Macron forces benefit hugely from having three candidates splitting the identity-camp. But the system has quirks that are hard to understand from outside. Sub-1% Trot cults like Lutte ouvriere always get the signatures promptly, and by no means from solely far-left or urban figures. By contrast serious candidates outside the old big two parties take much longer to win mayors' support.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,915
    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Sorry to intrude on a new thread, but FPT .......

    Northern_Al said:

    moonshine said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So, at work it was trailed by the government they were going to target Kremlin allied Russians/Brits in the UK via the financial services system.

    What was announced today is so minimal and ineffective the government may as well have not bothered.

    For this is alone Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak need to quit or be removed.

    I couldn’t believe they are only getting around tk sanctioning Bank Rossiya now. It’s been known as the FSB Bank and Putin’s Piggybank for at least 15 years!

    One wonders if the national security wing of the party will look today and finally think, yup this dude’s gotta go.
    It's a funny old world when it looks as if the Labour Party would be tougher on Russia in respect of sanctions than the Tories.

    But that's where we are: I reckon Starmer would have been tougher than Johnson, and would have handled the crisis better all round. Bad news for Tories, I think.
    I think you're absolutely right that Starmer would have been tougher than Johnson.

    One thing that we should now expect from Johnson is that the fine words are never backed by substance, and so it has proved again today.

    On Starmer, I have no doubt that he believes what he says on Russian sanctions. In addition, it of course provides an opportunity to show once again that Labour has moved on light years from Corbyn in the eyes of the general public.

    There is though a further internal political consideration for Starmer. Corbyn himself has led his fellow travellers down such a deep hole on this issue that many even of his remaining supporters will be looking on aghast at his behaviour. Making excuses for and encouraging appeasement of an authoritarian leader using his position for personal aggrandisation for him and his cronies while trying to extending subjugation of his nation to neighbouring ones isn't a good look. What would George Orwell have made of Corbyn? It's hard to conceive of a turn of events that could have accelerated the isolation and marginalisation of the holdouts of the far left within the Labour Party, even if Starmer had scripted it.
    Twelve of Corbyn's 'fellow travellers' are still Labour MPs who signed the STW statement condemning NATO as the aggressors just four days ago.

    I'd say 'light years' on from Corbyn might come some time after the Labour whip is removed from such MPs.

    https://labouroutlook.org/2022/02/18/ukraine-join-stop-the-war-jeremy-corbyn-diane-abbott-more-in-speaking-out-against-britains-aggressive-posturing/
    It'll take a few years still, but when you're travelling at the speed of light you're still making progress fast even in terms of light years. One step at a time. The end game seems most likely to be in the fallout immediately after the next GE after Corbyn is unwise enough to stand as an independent candidate.

    The fact that there were only 12 is in itself significant and indicative of others refusing their support. So the marginalisation is happening.
    The New Monday Club will help..

    Paul Waugh
    @paulwaugh
    Am told centrists in Battersea CLP have ousted the Momentum-supporting chair of the local party at its AGM tonight. Apparently one newish member, a certain John Bercow, played a key role.
    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1496250843829579780
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    CarlottaVance said:

    Here's my understanding of EU sanctions package proposed to member states this morning over Russia/Ukraine...

    1/Sanction all Russian Duma lawmakers.

    2/ Asset Freeze on 3 Russian banks with links to separatist regions in east Ukraine...

    3/ Sovereign debt freeze and a ban on lending to the Russian government and central bank

    4/Extension of the current trade ban on annexed Crimea to separatist areas. 2/2

    https://twitter.com/laurnorman/status/1496088489338753027

    In what way is this significantly more than the U.K. is doing?

    Cancelling NordStream2 is Germany shouldering the biggest hit in these first round of sanctions, but otherwise they are much of a muchness.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Interesting thread:

    I'm seeing a good deal of ire and snark about UK sanctions, and while I'm usually up for a good deal of ire and snark, I'm not sure it's entirely deserved in this case.

    https://twitter.com/samagreene/status/1496185375685025792
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926
    noneoftheabove said:

    RobD said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    RobD said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Looking at the almost non-existent UK sanctions against Putin and his mates in light of those imposed by the EU and the US and it’s hard to avoid the conclusion that the Tories have been bought. This is a deeply shameful day for the UK.

    What nonsense. If they have been bought, why are there any sanctions in the first place? Johnson himself said that it was just the beginning.

    It was impossible to do nothing, so they did next to nothing.

    Na, if they had been "bought out", they'd have done nothing. Utter nonsense to call it a deeply shameful day.
    Why have the last three Tory PMs accepted six figure sums to spend time with the ex wife of a former Putin minister?
    Never knew May swung that way.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Foxy said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Just reading about Trump's comments.

    He's not hot any less deranged.

    It really is quite astonishing. The former POTUS backing Putin.

    https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1496221147729481732?t=JmWXbtmH-lSlbHAz8ulKSA&s=19

    Astonishing that he might get reelected nevertheless.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652
    At the very best now, Johnson will be playing catch-up with the US and the EU - following, rather than leading.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,818
    RobD said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    RobD said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    RobD said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Looking at the almost non-existent UK sanctions against Putin and his mates in light of those imposed by the EU and the US and it’s hard to avoid the conclusion that the Tories have been bought. This is a deeply shameful day for the UK.

    What nonsense. If they have been bought, why are there any sanctions in the first place? Johnson himself said that it was just the beginning.

    It was impossible to do nothing, so they did next to nothing.

    Na, if they had been "bought out", they'd have done nothing. Utter nonsense to call it a deeply shameful day.
    Why have the last three Tory PMs accepted six figure sums to spend time with the ex wife of a former Putin minister?
    Never knew May swung that way.
    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/russian-donor-paid-135000-dinner-14976784
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    The french nomination system is interesting and tough.

    More generally, as an outsider it feels like Macron is inoffensive enough and the wings on left and right divided enough that he's carved out a decent niche.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633
    Applicant said:

    Foxy said:

    rottenborough said:

    At least one member of the Left is not messing around with 'Putin may have a point' bollx:

    https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/1496248529244856320

    No, it is the far right taking Putins side:


    I would submit that horseshoe theory is proving its worth again.
    I think the far Right and Far Left are too splintered and varied for that to be true, but it is true for the RCP and Brexitism.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    MarqueeMark said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Here's my understanding of EU sanctions package proposed to member states this morning over Russia/Ukraine...

    1/Sanction all Russian Duma lawmakers.

    2/ Asset Freeze on 3 Russian banks with links to separatist regions in east Ukraine...

    3/ Sovereign debt freeze and a ban on lending to the Russian government and central bank

    4/Extension of the current trade ban on annexed Crimea to separatist areas. 2/2

    https://twitter.com/laurnorman/status/1496088489338753027

    In what way is this significantly more than the U.K. is doing?

    Cancelling NordStream2 is Germany shouldering the biggest hit in these first round of sanctions, but otherwise they are much of a muchness.
    It’s astonishing the number of advocates for illegal confiscation of assets - and the bleating about “you’re giving them time to move them” ignores the fact that if you’ve got to fire sale them you’re going to be losing money - as Professor Greene points out (above).
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    SouthamObserver said:

    At the very best now, Johnson will be playing catch-up with the US and the EU - following, rather than leading.

    What, specifically, has the EU done that the U.K. has not?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,589
    MarqueeMark said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Here's my understanding of EU sanctions package proposed to member states this morning over Russia/Ukraine...

    1/Sanction all Russian Duma lawmakers.

    2/ Asset Freeze on 3 Russian banks with links to separatist regions in east Ukraine...

    3/ Sovereign debt freeze and a ban on lending to the Russian government and central bank

    4/Extension of the current trade ban on annexed Crimea to separatist areas. 2/2

    https://twitter.com/laurnorman/status/1496088489338753027

    In what way is this significantly more than the U.K. is doing?

    Cancelling NordStream2 is Germany shouldering the biggest hit in these first round of sanctions, but otherwise they are much of a muchness.
    Its not cancelled merely had its approval postponed.

    How long for we'll have to see.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    noneoftheabove said:

    RobD said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    RobD said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Looking at the almost non-existent UK sanctions against Putin and his mates in light of those imposed by the EU and the US and it’s hard to avoid the conclusion that the Tories have been bought. This is a deeply shameful day for the UK.

    What nonsense. If they have been bought, why are there any sanctions in the first place? Johnson himself said that it was just the beginning.

    It was impossible to do nothing, so they did next to nothing.

    Na, if they had been "bought out", they'd have done nothing. Utter nonsense to call it a deeply shameful day.
    Why have the last three Tory PMs accepted six figure sums to spend time with the ex wife of a former Putin minister?
    To be fair, in this case I'm not certain that a double negative makes a positive.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    edited February 2022
    R5 Live (yes I know) doing an hour and a quarter in depth on Ukraine right now. Quite interesting. Particularly if one hasn't been following closely.
    Approaching it by sections. On about sanctions right now. Who are the guys sanctioned and why? Just finished a bit on the implications for Westminster.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Sorry to intrude on a new thread, but FPT .......

    Northern_Al said:

    moonshine said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So, at work it was trailed by the government they were going to target Kremlin allied Russians/Brits in the UK via the financial services system.

    What was announced today is so minimal and ineffective the government may as well have not bothered.

    For this is alone Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak need to quit or be removed.

    I couldn’t believe they are only getting around tk sanctioning Bank Rossiya now. It’s been known as the FSB Bank and Putin’s Piggybank for at least 15 years!

    One wonders if the national security wing of the party will look today and finally think, yup this dude’s gotta go.
    It's a funny old world when it looks as if the Labour Party would be tougher on Russia in respect of sanctions than the Tories.

    But that's where we are: I reckon Starmer would have been tougher than Johnson, and would have handled the crisis better all round. Bad news for Tories, I think.
    I think you're absolutely right that Starmer would have been tougher than Johnson.

    One thing that we should now expect from Johnson is that the fine words are never backed by substance, and so it has proved again today.

    On Starmer, I have no doubt that he believes what he says on Russian sanctions. In addition, it of course provides an opportunity to show once again that Labour has moved on light years from Corbyn in the eyes of the general public.

    There is though a further internal political consideration for Starmer. Corbyn himself has led his fellow travellers down such a deep hole on this issue that many even of his remaining supporters will be looking on aghast at his behaviour. Making excuses for and encouraging appeasement of an authoritarian leader using his position for personal aggrandisation for him and his cronies while trying to extending subjugation of his nation to neighbouring ones isn't a good look. What would George Orwell have made of Corbyn? It's hard to conceive of a turn of events that could have accelerated the isolation and marginalisation of the holdouts of the far left within the Labour Party, even if Starmer had scripted it.
    Twelve of Corbyn's 'fellow travellers' are still Labour MPs who signed the STW statement condemning NATO as the aggressors just four days ago.

    I'd say 'light years' on from Corbyn might come some time after the Labour whip is removed from such MPs.

    https://labouroutlook.org/2022/02/18/ukraine-join-stop-the-war-jeremy-corbyn-diane-abbott-more-in-speaking-out-against-britains-aggressive-posturing/
    It'll take a few years still, but when you're travelling at the speed of light you're still making progress fast even in terms of light years. One step at a time. The end game seems most likely to be in the fallout immediately after the next GE after Corbyn is unwise enough to stand as an independent candidate.

    The fact that there were only 12 is in itself significant and indicative of others refusing their support. So the marginalisation is happening.
    Yes, there were a fair few new firebrandy types elected in 2017 so it wasnt impossible the awkward squad had many converts remaining, but the old malcontents with their fossilised opinions seem to have little sway
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    CarlottaVance said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    At the very best now, Johnson will be playing catch-up with the US and the EU - following, rather than leading.

    What, specifically, has the EU done that the U.K. has not?
    Not left the EU.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    MarqueeMark said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Here's my understanding of EU sanctions package proposed to member states this morning over Russia/Ukraine...

    1/Sanction all Russian Duma lawmakers.

    2/ Asset Freeze on 3 Russian banks with links to separatist regions in east Ukraine...

    3/ Sovereign debt freeze and a ban on lending to the Russian government and central bank

    4/Extension of the current trade ban on annexed Crimea to separatist areas. 2/2

    https://twitter.com/laurnorman/status/1496088489338753027

    In what way is this significantly more than the U.K. is doing?

    Cancelling NordStream2 is Germany shouldering the biggest hit in these first round of sanctions, but otherwise they are much of a muchness.
    There’s a lot of non-specific complaining without setting out what the differences are. On the blocked banks the U.K. and EU share 2 out of the 3 for example.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Random thought, but I suddenly wonder where Shakhtar Donetsk play their footy now. Surely not in the peoples republic?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926
    .
    noneoftheabove said:

    RobD said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    RobD said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    RobD said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Looking at the almost non-existent UK sanctions against Putin and his mates in light of those imposed by the EU and the US and it’s hard to avoid the conclusion that the Tories have been bought. This is a deeply shameful day for the UK.

    What nonsense. If they have been bought, why are there any sanctions in the first place? Johnson himself said that it was just the beginning.

    It was impossible to do nothing, so they did next to nothing.

    Na, if they had been "bought out", they'd have done nothing. Utter nonsense to call it a deeply shameful day.
    Why have the last three Tory PMs accepted six figure sums to spend time with the ex wife of a former Putin minister?
    Never knew May swung that way.
    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/russian-donor-paid-135000-dinner-14976784
    What's the issue? He's clearly fallen out of favour with Putin.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    dixiedean said:

    R5 Live (yes I know) doing an hour and a quarter in depth on Ukraine right now. Quite interesting. Particularly if one hasn't been following closely.
    Approaching it by sections. On about sanctions right now. Who are the guys sanctioned and why? Just finished a bit on the implications for Westminster.

    I switched the station on at 9pm hoping to hear precisely this type of discussion but football was on so I switched off. Bad timing.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926
    another_richard said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Here's my understanding of EU sanctions package proposed to member states this morning over Russia/Ukraine...

    1/Sanction all Russian Duma lawmakers.

    2/ Asset Freeze on 3 Russian banks with links to separatist regions in east Ukraine...

    3/ Sovereign debt freeze and a ban on lending to the Russian government and central bank

    4/Extension of the current trade ban on annexed Crimea to separatist areas. 2/2

    https://twitter.com/laurnorman/status/1496088489338753027

    In what way is this significantly more than the U.K. is doing?

    Cancelling NordStream2 is Germany shouldering the biggest hit in these first round of sanctions, but otherwise they are much of a muchness.
    Its not cancelled merely had its approval postponed.

    How long for we'll have to see.
    Meanwhile the consumption of Russian gas continues.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    kle4 said:

    Random thought, but I suddenly wonder where Shakhtar Donetsk play their footy now. Surely not in the peoples republic?

    Kyiv since 2020. Before that Lviv and then Kharkiv.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926
    SouthamObserver said:

    At the very best now, Johnson will be playing catch-up with the US and the EU - following, rather than leading.

    Just doing it their own way. As noted by others, there isn't all that much difference in them.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    kle4 said:

    Random thought, but I suddenly wonder where Shakhtar Donetsk play their footy now. Surely not in the peoples republic?

    Believe they've been playing in other places in Ukraine since the original invasion. As have Zorya Luhansk. And Chernomorets Odessa.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,319
    CarlottaVance said:

    Here's my understanding of EU sanctions package proposed to member states this morning over Russia/Ukraine...

    1/Sanction all Russian Duma lawmakers.

    2/ Asset Freeze on 3 Russian banks with links to separatist regions in east Ukraine...

    3/ Sovereign debt freeze and a ban on lending to the Russian government and central bank

    4/Extension of the current trade ban on annexed Crimea to separatist areas. 2/2

    https://twitter.com/laurnorman/status/1496088489338753027

    In what way is this significantly more than the U.K. is doing?

    You have to be kidding , 3 pensioners and a a few regional banks, even you cannot believe that Tory propaganda and why would you expect anyone with a functioning brain cell to believe your rubbish.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Hmm, up to a point, It's not quite right to say that Marine Le Pen might be suspending her campaign, but instead (as the article Mike links to makes clear) she's concentrating on getting the nominations she needs, I'm pretty sure we had similar articles last time.

    The most important sentence in the France24 article is the last one:

    Aucun candidat bien placé dans les sondages n'a jamais échoué à les recueillir lors d'une élection présidentielle.

    Erm, something about a good candidate and the presidential election?

    I got that far from 'bien' and taking a stab at presuming candidat, election and presidentielle were easy to guess. Other than that I'm stumped.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,319
    CarlottaVance said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Here's my understanding of EU sanctions package proposed to member states this morning over Russia/Ukraine...

    1/Sanction all Russian Duma lawmakers.

    2/ Asset Freeze on 3 Russian banks with links to separatist regions in east Ukraine...

    3/ Sovereign debt freeze and a ban on lending to the Russian government and central bank

    4/Extension of the current trade ban on annexed Crimea to separatist areas. 2/2

    https://twitter.com/laurnorman/status/1496088489338753027

    In what way is this significantly more than the U.K. is doing?

    Cancelling NordStream2 is Germany shouldering the biggest hit in these first round of sanctions, but otherwise they are much of a muchness.
    There’s a lot of non-specific complaining without setting out what the differences are. On the blocked banks the U.K. and EU share 2 out of the 3 for example.
    Keep trying Lady Haw Haw
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926
    malcolmg said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Here's my understanding of EU sanctions package proposed to member states this morning over Russia/Ukraine...

    1/Sanction all Russian Duma lawmakers.

    2/ Asset Freeze on 3 Russian banks with links to separatist regions in east Ukraine...

    3/ Sovereign debt freeze and a ban on lending to the Russian government and central bank

    4/Extension of the current trade ban on annexed Crimea to separatist areas. 2/2

    https://twitter.com/laurnorman/status/1496088489338753027

    In what way is this significantly more than the U.K. is doing?

    You have to be kidding , 3 pensioners and a a few regional banks, even you cannot believe that Tory propaganda and why would you expect anyone with a functioning brain cell to believe your rubbish.
    Would those be the same regional banks targeted by the EU?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    kle4 said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Hmm, up to a point, It's not quite right to say that Marine Le Pen might be suspending her campaign, but instead (as the article Mike links to makes clear) she's concentrating on getting the nominations she needs, I'm pretty sure we had similar articles last time.

    The most important sentence in the France24 article is the last one:

    Aucun candidat bien placé dans les sondages n'a jamais échoué à les recueillir lors d'une élection présidentielle.

    Erm, something about a good candidate and the presidential election?

    I got that far from 'bien' and taking a stab at presuming candidat, election and presidentielle were easy to guess. Other than that I'm stumped.
    Google translate:

    No candidate well placed in the polls has ever failed to garner them in a presidential election
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    malcolmg said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Here's my understanding of EU sanctions package proposed to member states this morning over Russia/Ukraine...

    1/Sanction all Russian Duma lawmakers.

    2/ Asset Freeze on 3 Russian banks with links to separatist regions in east Ukraine...

    3/ Sovereign debt freeze and a ban on lending to the Russian government and central bank

    4/Extension of the current trade ban on annexed Crimea to separatist areas. 2/2

    https://twitter.com/laurnorman/status/1496088489338753027

    In what way is this significantly more than the U.K. is doing?

    Cancelling NordStream2 is Germany shouldering the biggest hit in these first round of sanctions, but otherwise they are much of a muchness.
    There’s a lot of non-specific complaining without setting out what the differences are. On the blocked banks the U.K. and EU share 2 out of the 3 for example.
    Keep trying Lady Haw Haw
    Bet you’re pleased Mammy knows best!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633
    edited February 2022
    kle4 said:

    Random thought, but I suddenly wonder where Shakhtar Donetsk play their footy now. Surely not in the peoples republic?

    In Kyiv, I think.

    Leicester played a Ukranian team last season, which couldn't play in their home town.

    It was Zorya who come from Luhansk. The game was played in Zaporizhzhia. I didn't think them a bad side.

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,523
    Foxy said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Just reading about Trump's comments.

    He's not hot any less deranged.

    It really is quite astonishing. The former POTUS backing Putin.

    https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1496221147729481732?t=JmWXbtmH-lSlbHAz8ulKSA&s=19

    I've read it three times and I can't work out what he's trying to say. Is he joking? Admiring? Why wouldn't it have happened if Trump were President?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    If neither Le Pen or Zemmour get the backers needed to get on the ballot paper then that gives Pecresse an excellent chance. The right would then largely be united behind her and she could even win the first round which would give her big momentum for the runoff
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    NickPalmer said:

    Foxy said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Just reading about Trump's comments.

    He's not hot any less deranged.

    It really is quite astonishing. The former POTUS backing Putin.

    https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1496221147729481732?t=JmWXbtmH-lSlbHAz8ulKSA&s=19

    I've read it three times and I can't work out what he's trying to say. Is he joking? Admiring? Why wouldn't it have happened if Trump were President?
    Are you kidding? Trump is fawning all over Putin. He is saying he would have loved to have sent some kind of kremlin type army into the southern border of US under his watch in order to keep mexicans out.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652
    I'd favour Macron even upon accounting for the inflation and wars yet to come. On the right, you have Pécresse and Zemmour, who will never win support to the left of Macron because of their liberal economics, before even considering Zemmour's record of hate speech. Le Pen is more electable because of her more protectionist economics but also more empirically unsuccessful as a candidate.

    The French centre-left is now feeble, split in this instance between the socialists, greens and Taubira's campaign; furthermore many people exited those parties for Macron, whose victories in the presidency and assembly were a little like a general election victory for Change-UK. Mélenchon to their left is outpolling all of them, and even the Communist exceeds their scores time to time. Probably Mélenchon would have the best chance against Macron if the election were tomorrow because he can reach into both the centre-left and Le Pen's sizable electorate. But he would need another 5% of first-round votes from the broad left. Whether Ségolène Royal was sincere in saying he was the useful vote, or just twisting the knife in her old rivals (especially the socialist Hidalgo), more intelligent observers can say for sure.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    HYUFD said:

    If neither Le Pen or Zemmour get the backers needed to get on the ballot paper then that gives Pecresse an excellent chance. The right would then largely be united behind her and she could even win the first round which would give her big momentum for the runoff

    I expect Pecresse to win fairly easily if it's her versus Macron.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited February 2022
    RobD said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    At the very best now, Johnson will be playing catch-up with the US and the EU - following, rather than leading.

    Just doing it their own way. As noted by others, there isn't all that much difference in them.
    When this is pointed out the response is not:

    Here are the differences:
    1)
    2)
    3)

    But Toreee money from Russians! Since these “Russians” must also be British residents (and some of them long critics of Putin) try replacing “Russians” with “Jews” and see how it sounds…
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    Foxy said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Just reading about Trump's comments.

    He's not hot any less deranged.

    It really is quite astonishing. The former POTUS backing Putin.

    https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1496221147729481732?t=JmWXbtmH-lSlbHAz8ulKSA&s=19

    If Le Pen won the French election she too would back Putin
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,332
    Trump is a prick.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    There must be a reason why Putin allowed the cameras in to film this discussion between him and his spy chief.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-60485967
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633
    HYUFD said:

    If neither Le Pen or Zemmour get the backers needed to get on the ballot paper then that gives Pecresse an excellent chance. The right would then largely be united behind her and she could even win the first round which would give her big momentum for the runoff

    French polls do seem rather more accurate than ours*, and Pecresse is currently languishing in 4th place on barely half of Macrons polling. File it under "not going to happen".

    *underestimating Macrons support last time out, but just by a couple of percent.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,464
    BlancheLivermore said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Here's my understanding of EU sanctions package proposed to member states this morning over Russia/Ukraine...

    1/Sanction all Russian Duma lawmakers.

    2/ Asset Freeze on 3 Russian banks with links to separatist regions in east Ukraine...

    3/ Sovereign debt freeze and a ban on lending to the Russian government and central bank

    4/Extension of the current trade ban on annexed Crimea to separatist areas. 2/2

    https://twitter.com/laurnorman/status/1496088489338753027

    In what way is this significantly more than the U.K. is doing?

    Cancelling NordStream2 is Germany shouldering the biggest hit in these first round of sanctions, but otherwise they are much of a muchness.
    We were damned foolish not to have not invested billions in a gas pipeline from a kleptocracy that we could have then cancelled when our gas supplier again invaded his neighbour.
    The UK has pretty well poured money into their space programme the same way.... Tim Peake etc are all thanks to Russia's commercial space efforts - like it or not, many western countries rely on Russsia in different ways to acheive things - I remember Tim Peake mentioning having to learn Russian
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Random thought, but I suddenly wonder where Shakhtar Donetsk play their footy now. Surely not in the peoples republic?

    In Kyiv, I think.

    Leicester played a Ukranian team last season, which couldn't play in their home town.

    It was Zorya who come from Luhansk. The game was played in Zaporizhzhia. I didn't think them a bad side.

    Zinchenko speaking out tonight.

    https://www.theguardian.com/football/2022/feb/22/manchester-citys-oleksandr-zinchenko-my-country-belongs-to-ukrainains

    And I expect Max Kilman and his Ukranian parents to tell Abramovich to go f*** himself.

    https://talksport.com/football/1047434/chelsea-transfer-news-max-kilman-wolves/
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633
    FC Sheriff are currently in the Europa League, and famously beat Real Madrid away last autumn, are based in Tiraspol, in the breakaway Transnistra, but don't seem to have a problem playing in the Moldovan League.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    BlancheLivermore said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Here's my understanding of EU sanctions package proposed to member states this morning over Russia/Ukraine...

    1/Sanction all Russian Duma lawmakers.

    2/ Asset Freeze on 3 Russian banks with links to separatist regions in east Ukraine...

    3/ Sovereign debt freeze and a ban on lending to the Russian government and central bank

    4/Extension of the current trade ban on annexed Crimea to separatist areas. 2/2

    https://twitter.com/laurnorman/status/1496088489338753027

    In what way is this significantly more than the U.K. is doing?

    Cancelling NordStream2 is Germany shouldering the biggest hit in these first round of sanctions, but otherwise they are much of a muchness.
    We were damned foolish not to have not invested billions in a gas pipeline from a kleptocracy that we could have then cancelled when our gas supplier again invaded his neighbour.
    So what ?

    This isn’t about past mistakes, but how we respond to a crisis now.
    Way too much useless whataboutery going on here.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Foxy said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Just reading about Trump's comments.

    He's not hot any less deranged.

    It really is quite astonishing. The former POTUS backing Putin.

    https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1496221147729481732?t=JmWXbtmH-lSlbHAz8ulKSA&s=19

    Not astonishing at all. One Putinist backing another.

    45 does it overtly, whereas BJ (IMHO) does it covertly.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,523
    rottenborough said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Foxy said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Just reading about Trump's comments.

    He's not hot any less deranged.

    It really is quite astonishing. The former POTUS backing Putin.

    https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1496221147729481732?t=JmWXbtmH-lSlbHAz8ulKSA&s=19

    I've read it three times and I can't work out what he's trying to say. Is he joking? Admiring? Why wouldn't it have happened if Trump were President?
    Are you kidding? Trump is fawning all over Putin. He is saying he would have loved to have sent some kind of kremlin type army into the southern border of US under his watch in order to keep mexicans out.
    Yes, that's my assumption. By what then does "This would never have happened with us." mean?

    I like to have even loony right-wingers make some sort of sense on their own terms.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    The Pentagon is moving up to eight F-35 fighter jets and a slew of other warplanes to Eastern Europe, the Baltics and Poland to shore up support for NATO allies following what President Biden called the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

    At the direction of the president, Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III also ordered an infantry battalion task force — some 800 troops — to the Baltics, according to a senior Defense Department official. All of the troops and warplanes were already in the European theater, the official said.

    NY Times
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    If neither Le Pen or Zemmour get the backers needed to get on the ballot paper then that gives Pecresse an excellent chance. The right would then largely be united behind her and she could even win the first round which would give her big momentum for the runoff

    French polls do seem rather more accurate than ours*, and Pecresse is currently languishing in 4th place on barely half of Macrons polling. File it under "not going to happen".
    She would simply need to finish second in front of the extreme right. By and large the extreme right would unite behind her; she has made gestures to them, even briefly alluding to Zemmour's "Great Replacement" (conspiracy) theory (before walking it back, saying it was a conspiracy theory after all). And obviously she is not the pro-European, cosmopolitan, and un-Russophile Macron. Problem is nobody on the left would follow. She is this election's liberal bogeyman to them, the role Macron was cast in last time, and bogey enough to make it worth supporting Macron whose liberalism has been abortive at home and abandoned abroad. (Meaning economic liberal, of course.)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    NickPalmer said:

    rottenborough said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Foxy said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Just reading about Trump's comments.

    He's not hot any less deranged.

    It really is quite astonishing. The former POTUS backing Putin.

    https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1496221147729481732?t=JmWXbtmH-lSlbHAz8ulKSA&s=19

    I've read it three times and I can't work out what he's trying to say. Is he joking? Admiring? Why wouldn't it have happened if Trump were President?
    Are you kidding? Trump is fawning all over Putin. He is saying he would have loved to have sent some kind of kremlin type army into the southern border of US under his watch in order to keep mexicans out.
    Yes, that's my assumption. By what then does "This would never have happened with us." mean?

    I like to have even loony right-wingers make some sort of sense on their own terms.
    It’s just Trump talking sh*t.
    ‘Nothing would have gone wrong if I were president, because Putin respects me’, etc.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Nigelb said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Here's my understanding of EU sanctions package proposed to member states this morning over Russia/Ukraine...

    1/Sanction all Russian Duma lawmakers.

    2/ Asset Freeze on 3 Russian banks with links to separatist regions in east Ukraine...

    3/ Sovereign debt freeze and a ban on lending to the Russian government and central bank

    4/Extension of the current trade ban on annexed Crimea to separatist areas. 2/2

    https://twitter.com/laurnorman/status/1496088489338753027

    In what way is this significantly more than the U.K. is doing?

    Cancelling NordStream2 is Germany shouldering the biggest hit in these first round of sanctions, but otherwise they are much of a muchness.
    We were damned foolish not to have not invested billions in a gas pipeline from a kleptocracy that we could have then cancelled when our gas supplier again invaded his neighbour.
    So what ?

    This isn’t about past mistakes, but how we respond to a crisis now.
    Way too much useless whataboutery going on here.
    This past mistake was committed in 2018, 4 years after the annexation of Crimea. Which might suggest some have been slow on the uptake.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    NickPalmer said:


    Yes, that's my assumption. By what then does "This would never have happened with us." mean?

    I like to have even loony right-wingers make some sort of sense on their own terms.

    LOL! Yes, but I think this particular ex-president loon believes both that Putin is a great guy and that he wouldn't have dared make a move if Trump were still president.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    CarlottaVance said:

    malcolmg said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Here's my understanding of EU sanctions package proposed to member states this morning over Russia/Ukraine...

    1/Sanction all Russian Duma lawmakers.

    2/ Asset Freeze on 3 Russian banks with links to separatist regions in east Ukraine...

    3/ Sovereign debt freeze and a ban on lending to the Russian government and central bank

    4/Extension of the current trade ban on annexed Crimea to separatist areas. 2/2

    https://twitter.com/laurnorman/status/1496088489338753027

    In what way is this significantly more than the U.K. is doing?

    Cancelling NordStream2 is Germany shouldering the biggest hit in these first round of sanctions, but otherwise they are much of a muchness.
    There’s a lot of non-specific complaining without setting out what the differences are. On the blocked banks the U.K. and EU share 2 out of the 3 for example.
    Keep trying Lady Haw Haw
    Bet you’re pleased Mammy knows best!
    You and Malcolm are like a pair of Emporers riding around and arguing about who is dressed the finest whilst neither of you is wearing more than a transparent fig leaf.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    EPG said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    If neither Le Pen or Zemmour get the backers needed to get on the ballot paper then that gives Pecresse an excellent chance. The right would then largely be united behind her and she could even win the first round which would give her big momentum for the runoff

    French polls do seem rather more accurate than ours*, and Pecresse is currently languishing in 4th place on barely half of Macrons polling. File it under "not going to happen".
    She would simply need to finish second in front of the extreme right. By and large the extreme right would unite behind her; she has made gestures to them, even briefly alluding to Zemmour's "Great Replacement" (conspiracy) theory (before walking it back, saying it was a conspiracy theory after all). And obviously she is not the pro-European, cosmopolitan, and un-Russophile Macron. Problem is nobody on the left would follow. She is this election's liberal bogeyman to them, the role Macron was cast in last time, and bogey enough to make it worth supporting Macron whose liberalism has been abortive at home and abandoned abroad. (Meaning economic liberal, of course.)
    Polling shows not much enthusiasm for Melenchon voters to turn out for Macron in a runoff and he is the leading leftwing candidate. If Pecresse got second place and to the runoff, she is basically tied with Zemmour and Le Pen behind Macron, then if she gets Le Pen voters to turn out for her with more enthusiasm than Melenchon voters turn out for Macron then she wins the runoff and the Presidency
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    CarlottaVance said:

    Nigelb said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Here's my understanding of EU sanctions package proposed to member states this morning over Russia/Ukraine...

    1/Sanction all Russian Duma lawmakers.

    2/ Asset Freeze on 3 Russian banks with links to separatist regions in east Ukraine...

    3/ Sovereign debt freeze and a ban on lending to the Russian government and central bank

    4/Extension of the current trade ban on annexed Crimea to separatist areas. 2/2

    https://twitter.com/laurnorman/status/1496088489338753027

    In what way is this significantly more than the U.K. is doing?

    Cancelling NordStream2 is Germany shouldering the biggest hit in these first round of sanctions, but otherwise they are much of a muchness.
    We were damned foolish not to have not invested billions in a gas pipeline from a kleptocracy that we could have then cancelled when our gas supplier again invaded his neighbour.
    So what ?

    This isn’t about past mistakes, but how we respond to a crisis now.
    Way too much useless whataboutery going on here.
    This past mistake was committed in 2018, 4 years after the annexation of Crimea. Which might suggest some have been slow on the uptake.
    There was a more significant mistake a year earlier in 2017, only 3 years after Crimea, when the UK shut down 70% of its (already minimal) gas storage facilities, leaving us with no more than a few days reserves to draw on in any crisis.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    edited February 2022
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    If neither Le Pen or Zemmour get the backers needed to get on the ballot paper then that gives Pecresse an excellent chance. The right would then largely be united behind her and she could even win the first round which would give her big momentum for the runoff

    French polls do seem rather more accurate than ours*, and Pecresse is currently languishing in 4th place on barely half of Macrons polling. File it under "not going to happen".

    *underestimating Macrons support last time out, but just by a couple of percent.
    They only underestimated Macron last time as most 3rd place Fillon voters went for Macron over Le Pen.

    Pecresse has replaced Fillon as the centre right candidate this time and if she gets to the runoff centre right voters will obviously still vote for her over Macron
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    kle4 said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Hmm, up to a point, It's not quite right to say that Marine Le Pen might be suspending her campaign, but instead (as the article Mike links to makes clear) she's concentrating on getting the nominations she needs, I'm pretty sure we had similar articles last time.

    The most important sentence in the France24 article is the last one:

    Aucun candidat bien placé dans les sondages n'a jamais échoué à les recueillir lors d'une élection présidentielle.

    Erm, something about a good candidate and the presidential election?

    I got that far from 'bien' and taking a stab at presuming candidat, election and presidentielle were easy to guess. Other than that I'm stumped.
    Apologies: It means "No candidate doing well in the opinion polls has ever failed to get the nominations in a presidential election."
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    rottenborough said:

    The Pentagon is moving up to eight F-35 fighter jets ... to Eastern Europe, the Baltics and Poland to shore up support for NATO allies

    NY Times

    What is that? One per country?
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    kle4 said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Sorry to intrude on a new thread, but FPT .......

    Northern_Al said:

    moonshine said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So, at work it was trailed by the government they were going to target Kremlin allied Russians/Brits in the UK via the financial services system.

    What was announced today is so minimal and ineffective the government may as well have not bothered.

    For this is alone Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak need to quit or be removed.

    I couldn’t believe they are only getting around tk sanctioning Bank Rossiya now. It’s been known as the FSB Bank and Putin’s Piggybank for at least 15 years!

    One wonders if the national security wing of the party will look today and finally think, yup this dude’s gotta go.
    It's a funny old world when it looks as if the Labour Party would be tougher on Russia in respect of sanctions than the Tories.

    But that's where we are: I reckon Starmer would have been tougher than Johnson, and would have handled the crisis better all round. Bad news for Tories, I think.
    I think you're absolutely right that Starmer would have been tougher than Johnson.

    One thing that we should now expect from Johnson is that the fine words are never backed by substance, and so it has proved again today.

    On Starmer, I have no doubt that he believes what he says on Russian sanctions. In addition, it of course provides an opportunity to show once again that Labour has moved on light years from Corbyn in the eyes of the general public.

    There is though a further internal political consideration for Starmer. Corbyn himself has led his fellow travellers down such a deep hole on this issue that many even of his remaining supporters will be looking on aghast at his behaviour. Making excuses for and encouraging appeasement of an authoritarian leader using his position for personal aggrandisation for him and his cronies while trying to extending subjugation of his nation to neighbouring ones isn't a good look. What would George Orwell have made of Corbyn? It's hard to conceive of a turn of events that could have accelerated the isolation and marginalisation of the holdouts of the far left within the Labour Party, even if Starmer had scripted it.
    Twelve of Corbyn's 'fellow travellers' are still Labour MPs who signed the STW statement condemning NATO as the aggressors just four days ago.

    I'd say 'light years' on from Corbyn might come some time after the Labour whip is removed from such MPs.

    https://labouroutlook.org/2022/02/18/ukraine-join-stop-the-war-jeremy-corbyn-diane-abbott-more-in-speaking-out-against-britains-aggressive-posturing/
    It'll take a few years still, but when you're travelling at the speed of light you're still making progress fast even in terms of light years. One step at a time. The end game seems most likely to be in the fallout immediately after the next GE after Corbyn is unwise enough to stand as an independent candidate.

    The fact that there were only 12 is in itself significant and indicative of others refusing their support. So the marginalisation is happening.
    Yes, there were a fair few new firebrandy types elected in 2017 so it wasnt impossible the awkward squad had many converts remaining, but the old malcontents with their fossilised opinions seem to have little sway
    Here are some of the missing names.

    https://labourlist.org/2022/02/revealed-new-left-group-sparks-debate-over-divisions-among-left-mps/
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    What is Putin's state of mind? And where has clever Putin gone? On 5 Live now.
    Good questions.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    dixiedean said:

    And where has clever Putin gone? On 5 Live now.

    He's on 5 Live? What a scoop by them.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,625
    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    And where has clever Putin gone? On 5 Live now.

    He's on 5 Live? What a scoop by them.
    Hard to believe the BBC outbid Spotify.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652
    HYUFD said:

    EPG said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    If neither Le Pen or Zemmour get the backers needed to get on the ballot paper then that gives Pecresse an excellent chance. The right would then largely be united behind her and she could even win the first round which would give her big momentum for the runoff

    French polls do seem rather more accurate than ours*, and Pecresse is currently languishing in 4th place on barely half of Macrons polling. File it under "not going to happen".
    She would simply need to finish second in front of the extreme right. By and large the extreme right would unite behind her; she has made gestures to them, even briefly alluding to Zemmour's "Great Replacement" (conspiracy) theory (before walking it back, saying it was a conspiracy theory after all). And obviously she is not the pro-European, cosmopolitan, and un-Russophile Macron. Problem is nobody on the left would follow. She is this election's liberal bogeyman to them, the role Macron was cast in last time, and bogey enough to make it worth supporting Macron whose liberalism has been abortive at home and abandoned abroad. (Meaning economic liberal, of course.)
    Polling shows not much enthusiasm for Melenchon voters to turn out for Macron in a runoff and he is the leading leftwing candidate. If Pecresse got second place and to the runoff, she is basically tied with Zemmour and Le Pen behind Macron, then if she gets Le Pen voters to turn out for her with more enthusiasm than Melenchon voters turn out for Macron then she wins the runoff and the Presidency
    The same happened with Mélenchon supporters last time when they faced the option of Le Pen, who can reach into far more of his voters than Pécresse. (Le Pen is seen as a workers' candidate - Pécresse was born in Neuilly, privately educated and became deputy for, erm, Versailles.)

    Mélenchon now has only around half his numbers from 2017, primarily because the Greens have a candidate. Surely his remaining supporters are disproportionately more hostile to other parties, but they also matter less as a bloc. Macron will readily fish in the pools of green, socialist and Taubira voters.
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