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The French election – the fight to be in the final two – politicalbetting.com

The big 2022 election in Europe is the French one which takes place on two Sundays in April two weeks apart.
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He's not hot any less deranged.
One thing that we should now expect from Johnson is that the fine words are never backed by substance, and so it has proved again today.
On Starmer, I have no doubt that he believes what he says on Russian sanctions. In addition, it of course provides an opportunity to show once again that Labour has moved on light years from Corbyn in the eyes of the general public.
There is though a further internal political consideration for Starmer. Corbyn himself has led his fellow travellers down such a deep hole on this issue that many even of his remaining supporters will be looking on aghast at his behaviour. Making excuses for and encouraging appeasement of an authoritarian leader using his position for personal aggrandisation for him and his cronies while trying to extending subjugation of his nation to neighbouring ones isn't a good look. What would George Orwell have made of Corbyn? It's hard to conceive of a turn of events that could have accelerated the isolation and marginalisation of the holdouts of the far left within the Labour Party, even if Starmer had scripted it.
It would be almost as funny as Vladimir Putin accidentally droning himself on a visit to Luhansk.
https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1496221147729481732?t=JmWXbtmH-lSlbHAz8ulKSA&s=19
Looks like a deal will have to be done between those two, but who'll be prepared to blink?
edit: Australian.
The most important sentence in the France24 article is the last one:
Aucun candidat bien placé dans les sondages n'a jamais échoué à les recueillir lors d'une élection présidentielle.
I'd say 'light years' on from Corbyn might come some time after the Labour whip is removed from such MPs.
https://labouroutlook.org/2022/02/18/ukraine-join-stop-the-war-jeremy-corbyn-diane-abbott-more-in-speaking-out-against-britains-aggressive-posturing/
Yes. We bloody know that. He's got Trump's arse thanks to some deal or other.
Maybe, just maybe, this will be finally when Americans see through Trump. He's no American patriot.
I suspect that, even for them, "Putin is a genius" may prove to be a much harder concept to fall in behind than "Covid is fake news." Are they really prepared to fly the Russian flag besides the Stars and Stripes?
https://twitter.com/leonidragozin/status/1496247205929586689
The ideal situation for Macron would be for only one of them to qualify as I think that that would pretty much ensure that his opponent in the run-off would be on the far-right.
If neither or both qualify them Pecresse has a reasonable chance of making the final round and Macron would probably prefer not to face her in the run off.
We shall know for certain in 10 days time but my money is firmly on Macron.
Joyce Karam
@Joyce_Karam
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JUST IN: US Sec. of State Antony Blinken Cancels his meeting with Russia's Sergie #Lavrov on Thursday following actions in Ukraine.
"It does not make sense to go ahead with this meeting at this time."
https://twitter.com/Joyce_Karam
https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/1496248529244856320
Greetings from a Finnish leftist! The international situation has apparently left many people in the English-speaking countries confused. I write this thread in the hopes of sharing a perspective I believe is widely if not unilaterally shared in Finland, most leftists included.
https://twitter.com/jmkorhonen/status/1496047631969234944
The fact that there were only 12 is in itself significant and indicative of others refusing their support. So the marginalisation is happening.
Of course, Johnson is alleging that the Government has something more substantive in the pipeline - except that (whilst, as always, one stands to be corrected by events,) there's no particular reason to suppose that this is true. Quite apart from anything else, the Prime Minister is a compulsive liar.
1/Sanction all Russian Duma lawmakers.
2/ Asset Freeze on 3 Russian banks with links to separatist regions in east Ukraine...
3/ Sovereign debt freeze and a ban on lending to the Russian government and central bank
4/Extension of the current trade ban on annexed Crimea to separatist areas. 2/2
https://twitter.com/laurnorman/status/1496088489338753027
In what way is this significantly more than the U.K. is doing?
Paul Waugh
@paulwaugh
Am told centrists in Battersea CLP have ousted the Momentum-supporting chair of the local party at its AGM tonight. Apparently one newish member, a certain John Bercow, played a key role.
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1496250843829579780
I'm seeing a good deal of ire and snark about UK sanctions, and while I'm usually up for a good deal of ire and snark, I'm not sure it's entirely deserved in this case.
https://twitter.com/samagreene/status/1496185375685025792
More generally, as an outsider it feels like Macron is inoffensive enough and the wings on left and right divided enough that he's carved out a decent niche.
How long for we'll have to see.
Approaching it by sections. On about sanctions right now. Who are the guys sanctioned and why? Just finished a bit on the implications for Westminster.
I got that far from 'bien' and taking a stab at presuming candidat, election and presidentielle were easy to guess. Other than that I'm stumped.
No candidate well placed in the polls has ever failed to garner them in a presidential election
Leicester played a Ukranian team last season, which couldn't play in their home town.
It was Zorya who come from Luhansk. The game was played in Zaporizhzhia. I didn't think them a bad side.
The French centre-left is now feeble, split in this instance between the socialists, greens and Taubira's campaign; furthermore many people exited those parties for Macron, whose victories in the presidency and assembly were a little like a general election victory for Change-UK. Mélenchon to their left is outpolling all of them, and even the Communist exceeds their scores time to time. Probably Mélenchon would have the best chance against Macron if the election were tomorrow because he can reach into both the centre-left and Le Pen's sizable electorate. But he would need another 5% of first-round votes from the broad left. Whether Ségolène Royal was sincere in saying he was the useful vote, or just twisting the knife in her old rivals (especially the socialist Hidalgo), more intelligent observers can say for sure.
Here are the differences:
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But Toreee money from Russians! Since these “Russians” must also be British residents (and some of them long critics of Putin) try replacing “Russians” with “Jews” and see how it sounds…
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-60485967
*underestimating Macrons support last time out, but just by a couple of percent.
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2022/feb/22/manchester-citys-oleksandr-zinchenko-my-country-belongs-to-ukrainains
And I expect Max Kilman and his Ukranian parents to tell Abramovich to go f*** himself.
https://talksport.com/football/1047434/chelsea-transfer-news-max-kilman-wolves/
This isn’t about past mistakes, but how we respond to a crisis now.
Way too much useless whataboutery going on here.
45 does it overtly, whereas BJ (IMHO) does it covertly.
I like to have even loony right-wingers make some sort of sense on their own terms.
At the direction of the president, Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III also ordered an infantry battalion task force — some 800 troops — to the Baltics, according to a senior Defense Department official. All of the troops and warplanes were already in the European theater, the official said.
NY Times
‘Nothing would have gone wrong if I were president, because Putin respects me’, etc.
Pecresse has replaced Fillon as the centre right candidate this time and if she gets to the runoff centre right voters will obviously still vote for her over Macron
https://labourlist.org/2022/02/revealed-new-left-group-sparks-debate-over-divisions-among-left-mps/
Good questions.
Mélenchon now has only around half his numbers from 2017, primarily because the Greens have a candidate. Surely his remaining supporters are disproportionately more hostile to other parties, but they also matter less as a bloc. Macron will readily fish in the pools of green, socialist and Taubira voters.