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Tonight’s Southend W result will be compared with 2016 Batley & Spen – politicalbetting.com

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  • Hard to overstate what a personal rebuff this is to @BorisJohnson
    . Mirza is one of his longest-standing, loyal and most senior aides, having first worked with him when he was Mayor of London.


    https://twitter.com/PaulGoodmanCH/status/1489262277446410244?s=20&t=eGUeRvVYIzcHj2P1uJ1aQA

    Munira Mirza was not just a Johnson loyalist. She was/is a deeply impressive thinker in her own right who was willing to challenge the zeitgeist. Her departure is yet another bad sign.

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1489265769280008194?s=20&t=eGUeRvVYIzcHj2P1uJ1aQA

    Enormous story. Mirza is one of the PM's longest-standing lieutenants and key members of his inner circle. Worse for BJ is what she says:"I believe it was wrong for you to imply this week that Keir Starmer was personally responsible for allowing Jimmy Savile to escape justice..."

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1489266204447551489?s=20&t=eGUeRvVYIzcHj2P1uJ1aQA
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    In other partygate-related news: Sheffield City Council have appointed an investigator to look into Kate Josephs, its chief exec

    She was head of Cabinet Office covid-19 taskforce and was thrown a leaving do in dec 2020.

    Now under Met investigation

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/01/14/former-government-head-responsible-covid-rules-held-boozy-leaving/
  • Hell of a resgination letter. Nothing in her job became her like the leaving of it.



    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1489269482371653632?s=20&t=eGUeRvVYIzcHj2P1uJ1aQA
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,647
    @malcolmg , to take some spice out of the debate, do you appreciate that some persuasion is going to be needed from the Yes2 side?

    I wish I had only my state pension to worry about. I have my job, my flat value, mortgage, travel to England and so on...

    Indy supporters need to tiptoe carefully around people like me. I get the long term potential for an independent Scotland, but you'll have to sugar coat the next decade first.
  • Hard to overstate what a personal rebuff this is to @BorisJohnson
    . Mirza is one of his longest-standing, loyal and most senior aides, having first worked with him when he was Mayor of London.


    https://twitter.com/PaulGoodmanCH/status/1489262277446410244?s=20&t=eGUeRvVYIzcHj2P1uJ1aQA

    Munira Mirza was not just a Johnson loyalist. She was/is a deeply impressive thinker in her own right who was willing to challenge the zeitgeist. Her departure is yet another bad sign.

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1489265769280008194?s=20&t=eGUeRvVYIzcHj2P1uJ1aQA

    Enormous story. Mirza is one of the PM's longest-standing lieutenants and key members of his inner circle. Worse for BJ is what she says:"I believe it was wrong for you to imply this week that Keir Starmer was personally responsible for allowing Jimmy Savile to escape justice..."

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1489266204447551489?s=20&t=eGUeRvVYIzcHj2P1uJ1aQA

    It is curious with all these deeply intelligent thinkers like Mirza and Cummings and impeccable civil servants like Gray and Case that no 10 is and has been such a shambles. Perhaps none of them are anywhere near as good as their media mates big them up to be?
  • When Matt Goodwin says of Mirza "she was/is a deeply impressive thinker in her own right who was willing to challenge the zeitgeist", we can safely translate that as him saying "she agreed with me".

    I was under the impression that ol' Gooders was very much in favour of the populist zeitgeist and it was those gosh darned metropolitan liberals challenging it that pained him.

    Perhaps he just doesn't know what zeitgeist means.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    edited February 2022

    When Matt Goodwin says of Mirza "she was/is a deeply impressive thinker in her own right who was willing to challenge the zeitgeist", we can safely translate that as him saying "she agreed with me".

    Or just that she wasn't a complete brown noser.
    That being quite clear from her resignation.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747
    Come on then are they gonna stop pissing about and get this done now?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited February 2022
    Not sure how many people have noticed but the SNP have changed their position to claim that in the event of independence, the rest of the UK will just keep on paying Scottish pensions.

    Good luck with that one, as they say.


    https://twitter.com/rcolvile/status/1489241088749707264?s=20&t=eGUeRvVYIzcHj2P1uJ1aQA



    https://notesonnationalism.substack.com/p/playing-for-time
  • Hard to overstate what a personal rebuff this is to @BorisJohnson
    . Mirza is one of his longest-standing, loyal and most senior aides, having first worked with him when he was Mayor of London.


    https://twitter.com/PaulGoodmanCH/status/1489262277446410244?s=20&t=eGUeRvVYIzcHj2P1uJ1aQA

    Munira Mirza was not just a Johnson loyalist. She was/is a deeply impressive thinker in her own right who was willing to challenge the zeitgeist. Her departure is yet another bad sign.

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1489265769280008194?s=20&t=eGUeRvVYIzcHj2P1uJ1aQA

    Enormous story. Mirza is one of the PM's longest-standing lieutenants and key members of his inner circle. Worse for BJ is what she says:"I believe it was wrong for you to imply this week that Keir Starmer was personally responsible for allowing Jimmy Savile to escape justice..."

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1489266204447551489?s=20&t=eGUeRvVYIzcHj2P1uJ1aQA

    It is curious with all these deeply intelligent thinkers like Mirza and Cummings and impeccable civil servants like Gray and Case that no 10 is and has been such a shambles. Perhaps none of them are anywhere near as good as their media mates big them up to be?
    Or big dog spreading chaos and chewing the soft furnishings?
  • Tory insider - 'Munira was Boris’ brain and longest serving adviser. For her to depart at such a difficult time and in such a publicly critical way is simply devastating for the PM. It sends a strong signal to the Tory party that even those closest to the PM have now lost faith'

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1489273558077423616?s=20&t=eGUeRvVYIzcHj2P1uJ1aQA
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,375

    Hell of a resgination letter. Nothing in her job became her like the leaving of it.



    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1489269482371653632?s=20&t=eGUeRvVYIzcHj2P1uJ1aQA

    That last sentence is a bit of a killer, isn't it? I wouldn't be surprised now if Boris is toppled by the weekend.

    Where's HYUFD when you need him to tell us that 'tis just another minor flesh wound and 99.98% of all Boris fans are still Boris fans?

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Just catching up.

    The SNP pension double-down is both a sign of desperation, and incredibly clever. It’s an utter hoax of course, but Brexit showed that you can fool 52% of the population if you are brazen enough.

    It will take at least (checks calendar) 5 and a half years for the lies to catch up with you, but hey who cares about tomorrow?

    The BoE announcement is tragic. Some - not all of course, is again down to Brexit. In 2016 the UK started on a course of fantasy economics and such projects never prosper. So much for the roaring 20s. The UK has - in a very short time - found itself in a high tax, low growth, stagnant wages trap. History demonstrates that such things tend to destabilise society and have all sorts of nasty knock-on effects.

    The energy loans thing is a disaster. Better to take the hit now I would have thought. Instead, it’s going to drag on and on. It’s open goal after open goal for Labour.

    Munira’s letter is very interesting. For a long-term loyalist, it doesn’t read very loyal. Perhaps she has already secured the next gig with Boris’s replacement.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🚨 EXCLUSIVE: Munira Mirza, the Downing Street head of policy, has resigned over Boris Johnson’s Jimmy Savile attack on Keir Starmer

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/exclusive-boris-s-policy-chief-quits-over-jimmy-savile-slur

    I heard the accusation on Monday during the debate and thought it was political genius from Johnson. Associating Starmer with Saville, I thought what could possibly go wrong for Johnson?

    I owe @Heathener in particular my humblest felicitations.

    If it isn't over now, I'm a Dutchman!
    #MeToo - I told you the Savile thing would backfire on him!
    Indeed you did. @Ishmael_Z did too.

    Big Dog is done for.
    You're all over the place on this!
    When I heard it on Monday I thought Johnson had taken Starmer's credibility from under him. It might have worked if Johnson hadn't doubled down.

    I've said I read it wrong. What do you want? Blood.
    We just hope you find it in yourself to apologise for a great error of judgment ?
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,019
    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🚨 EXCLUSIVE: Munira Mirza, the Downing Street head of policy, has resigned over Boris Johnson’s Jimmy Savile attack on Keir Starmer

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/exclusive-boris-s-policy-chief-quits-over-jimmy-savile-slur

    Doing pretty badly when even Spiked are deserting.
    Mind you, I'm still expecting 2000 words from Brendan on why Jimmy Savile is a wrongly maligned working-class hero.
  • Today's by-election commentary from Andrew Teale.

    https://www.britainelects.com/2022/02/03/previewing-the-by-elections-of-03-feb-2022/

    As well as Southend West we have

    Berkhampsted West - Dacorum Council- LD defence
    Boxmoor - Dacorum Council- LD defence
    Campden and Vale - Cotswold Council- C defence
    Spital - Tamworth Council- C defence
    Evington - Leicester Council - Lab defence
    Ancoats and Beswick - Manchester Council - Lab defence
  • Just catching up.

    The SNP pension double-down is both a sign of desperation, and incredibly clever. It’s an utter hoax of course, but Brexit showed that you can fool 52% of the population if you are brazen enough.

    It will take at least (checks calendar) 5 and a half years for the lies to catch up with you, but hey who cares about tomorrow?

    The BoE announcement is tragic. Some - not all of course, is again down to Brexit. In 2016 the UK started on a course of fantasy economics and such projects never prosper. So much for the roaring 20s. The UK has - in a very short time - found itself in a high tax, low growth, stagnant wages trap. History demonstrates that such things tend to destabilise society and have all sorts of nasty knock-on effects.

    The energy loans thing is a disaster. Better to take the hit now I would have thought. Instead, it’s going to drag on and on. It’s open goal after open goal for Labour.

    Munira’s letter is very interesting. For a long-term loyalist, it doesn’t read very loyal. Perhaps she has already secured the next gig with Boris’s replacement.

    The incoming PM need to set up a high powered and urgent review of energy provision and net zero planning. Not as an expediency to buy time but because the current policies are leading to disaster and it is starting to become obvious.
  • Boris Johnson's claim that Sir Lynton Crosby is returning to his side was, I hear, a great surprise not just to him (in Australia, where he is staying for family reasons), but everyone in No10 too. Crosby and Johnson talk from time to time on the phone as friends, but that's it.

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1489276943300239362?s=20&t=eGUeRvVYIzcHj2P1uJ1aQA
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    edited February 2022
    Not sure who this Dominic2306 is, but he has a point.

    Pretty soon there will be a mad scramble & ministers will be kicking themselves hitting their heads saying 'WHY didnt i move faster arghhh'.

    Now's your moment, find a flicker of moral courage & 'push what is falling'

    https://twitter.com/Dominic2306/status/1489263223790465027
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424
    One does begin to wonder whether Johnson has lost control of himself, let alone anything else.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Nigelb said:

    Not sure who this Dominic2306 is, but he has a point.

    Pretty soon there will be a mad scramble & ministers will be kicking themselves hitting their heads saying 'WHY didnt i move faster arghhh'.

    Now's your moment, find a flicker of moral courage & 'push what is falling'

    https://twitter.com/Dominic2306/status/1489263223790465027

    Can't help.

    It reads like he might be a bit of a smug t*** though.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,319

    Can some one explain why this is wrong

    1) England/Scotland/Wales/Northern Ireland tax + UK borrowing -> England/Scotland/Wales/Northern Ireland pensions spending

    2)
    a) England/Wales/Northern Ireland tax + UK borrowing -> England/Wales/Northern Ireland pensions spending
    b) Scotland tax + Scotland borrowing -> Scotland pensions spending

    SCotland does not borrow, only UK borrows and pretends it is all going to Scotland, sio it is in fact horses dangly bits
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,319
    Endillion said:

    Can some one explain why this is wrong

    1) England/Scotland/Wales/Northern Ireland tax + UK borrowing -> England/Scotland/Wales/Northern Ireland pensions spending

    2)
    a) England/Wales/Northern Ireland tax + UK borrowing -> England/Wales/Northern Ireland pensions spending
    b) Scotland tax + Scotland borrowing -> Scotland pensions spending

    Scotland won't be able to borrow for anything like the same rate of interest as the UK, for one thing.
    Says Mystic Meg
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,319

    What the Scottish government said at the time:

    For those in Scotland in receipt of the UK State Pension at the time of independence, the responsibility for paying that pension would transfer to the Scottish Government.

    https://www.webarchive.org.uk/wayback/archive/20150221031257/http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2013/09/3492/7

    Yes, and I would anticipate that the new SG gets the value of pension contributions made by Scottish citizens transferred to them.

    So not the rUK government paying their pensions, but rUK giving them back the money they have put into a UK pension so that it can become a Scottish pension.
    Why would they get that when UK citizens do not and would not get the same hypothecated sum? There isn't a pension pot; we pay for the current oldies and the new generation (God help us) will pay for us.

    The examples given in this thread of ex pats getting the UK state pension are of UK citizens. If Indy were to happen, there might be the option to retain UK citizenship post-independence, and receive the UK state pension, paid in Sterling. Very popular I imagine with 'No' supporters but a very humiliating choice for 'Yes' supporters to make.
    Why would it be humiliating to have dual citizenship and claim your rightful pension you paid into for 50 years. The bonus that you are taking it off rUK would be anything but humiliating.
  • Just catching up.

    The SNP pension double-down is both a sign of desperation, and incredibly clever. It’s an utter hoax of course, but Brexit showed that you can fool 52% of the population if you are brazen enough.

    It will take at least (checks calendar) 5 and a half years for the lies to catch up with you, but hey who cares about tomorrow?

    The BoE announcement is tragic. Some - not all of course, is again down to Brexit. In 2016 the UK started on a course of fantasy economics and such projects never prosper. So much for the roaring 20s. The UK has - in a very short time - found itself in a high tax, low growth, stagnant wages trap. History demonstrates that such things tend to destabilise society and have all sorts of nasty knock-on effects.

    The energy loans thing is a disaster. Better to take the hit now I would have thought. Instead, it’s going to drag on and on. It’s open goal after open goal for Labour.

    Munira’s letter is very interesting. For a long-term loyalist, it doesn’t read very loyal. Perhaps she has already secured the next gig with Boris’s replacement.

    The incoming PM need to set up a high powered and urgent review of energy provision and net zero planning. Not as an expediency to buy time but because the current policies are leading to disaster and it is starting to become obvious.
    I do genuinely believe that the current Government is incapable of action outside of immediate expediency to buy time. Long term thinking is for girly swots etc. They're (very) late stage Brown. Completely at the mercy of events, except they seem to have put themselves there.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,319
    Eabhal said:

    @malcolmg , to take some spice out of the debate, do you appreciate that some persuasion is going to be needed from the Yes2 side?

    I wish I had only my state pension to worry about. I have my job, my flat value, mortgage, travel to England and so on...

    Indy supporters need to tiptoe carefully around people like me. I get the long term potential for an independent Scotland, but you'll have to sugar coat the next decade first.

    @Eabhal
    Your job, without knowing what it is it si hard to say but for sure independence would create jobs for all the Scottish services / public jobs located in England and would surely be an attractiv eplace for inward investment.
    Flat value , again Scotland will always be an attractive place to live and likely to get more attractive as we prosper
    Mortgage who knows you can fix long before anything happens
    There will never be travel issues

    cheers
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,871
    edited February 2022
    malcolmg said:

    Eabhal said:

    @malcolmg , to take some spice out of the debate, do you appreciate that some persuasion is going to be needed from the Yes2 side?

    I wish I had only my state pension to worry about. I have my job, my flat value, mortgage, travel to England and so on...

    Indy supporters need to tiptoe carefully around people like me. I get the long term potential for an independent Scotland, but you'll have to sugar coat the next decade first.

    @Eabhal
    Your job, without knowing what it is it si hard to say but for sure independence would create jobs for all the Scottish services / public jobs located in England and would surely be an attractiv eplace for inward investment.
    Flat value , again Scotland will always be an attractive place to live and likely to get more attractive as we prosper
    Mortgage who knows you can fix long before anything happens
    There will never be travel issues

    cheers
    The idea that the whole population of a third country would get to keep uk citizenship and vote in uk elections and referendums is a total non starter as far as I can see. Please note I am all for the Scots having an independence referendum and going indy if the proposition is voted for. However I think at that point people need to need to decide if they dont take scots citizenship or renounce their uk citizenship else we end up with the situation that the entirety of scotland can us uk resources such as the nhs, pensions, voting etc. Whereas the rest of the UK doesn't get to use Scottish resources. That is the ultimate in cherry picking.

    You vote for independence then you made your choice and as a rump uk citizen I fully expect the rump uk government to negotiate hard.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,319
    Pagan2 said:

    malcolmg said:

    Eabhal said:

    @malcolmg , to take some spice out of the debate, do you appreciate that some persuasion is going to be needed from the Yes2 side?

    I wish I had only my state pension to worry about. I have my job, my flat value, mortgage, travel to England and so on...

    Indy supporters need to tiptoe carefully around people like me. I get the long term potential for an independent Scotland, but you'll have to sugar coat the next decade first.

    @Eabhal
    Your job, without knowing what it is it si hard to say but for sure independence would create jobs for all the Scottish services / public jobs located in England and would surely be an attractiv eplace for inward investment.
    Flat value , again Scotland will always be an attractive place to live and likely to get more attractive as we prosper
    Mortgage who knows you can fix long before anything happens
    There will never be travel issues

    cheers
    The idea that the whole population of a third country would get to keep uk citizenship and vote in uk elections and referendums is a total non starter as far as I can see. Please note I am all for the Scots having an independence referendum and going indy if the proposition is voted for. However I think at that point people need to need to decide if they dont take scots citizenship or renounce their uk citizenship else we end up with the situation that the entirety of scotland can us uk resources such as the nhs, pensions, voting etc. Whereas the rest of the UK doesn't get to use Scottish resources. That is the ultimate in cherry picking.

    You vote for independence then you made your choice and as a rump uk citizen I fully expect the rump uk government to negotiate hard.
    They do it with Ireland so why would it be any different , shedloads of English people live in Scotland but may want to retain rUK citizenship. Would be extremely petty given you can go to almost anywhere in the world and remain a UK citizen. Bogus argument in my mind.
This discussion has been closed.