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Johnson’s lockdown gift to Starmer – politicalbetting.com

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  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    PJH said:

    PJH said:

    Heathener said:

    Late to the party so just saw the Savanta ComRes.

    11% ahead with Labour on 44%. Looking good.



    Oh dear, does that mean HYUFD has to call for Johnson's resignation?
    One can always hope

    Each conservative announcing they have submitted their letter to the 1922 gives me a lift and just hope it becomes an avalanche
    It's more like a trickle at the moment however.
    It is the direction of travel and I expect more after tomorrow's pmqs
    Your avalanche analogy is right.

    I forget who it was who said, about bankruptcy, that it "happens very gradually, then very suddenly".

    My reading is that is what is happening here. It will at times look very lacking in momentum, and people will say it is petering out. Then, very suddenly, he'll be gone.
    I don't agree, I doubt there will be a VONC any time soon.

    It’s time to look at my maxim on management decision making, based on 20 years of project management experience. “Management will always decide not to make a decision if that remains an option, especially if the point by which a decision should have been made has already passed”. For management read Tory MPs. So the real question is, when does not making a decision cease to be an option? I suggest after the May local elections next year. That would leave 12-18 months for a successor to turn things round. Until then there is always an excuse to wait, after that Johnson stays.

    For 54 letters to call for him to go before then would require something even worse to happen than heretofore (and it’s hard to see what that could be if Johnson’s performance isn’t already deemed unacceptable), or one of the potential candidates to succeed him to break ranks and force the issue (also unlikely).
    The 'worse' is happening every day and his interview in Kiev was a car crash, not for what he said but the caustic questions from journalists, and this is going to deteriorate every day including tomorrow's pmqs, especially if he uses Savile v Starmer

    Indeed, I now think he will be very fortunate to survive the week
    He will indeed be very fortunate. I know you have already decided, but my point is that if as a Tory MP you haven't already made your mind up, I can't see anything dramatic enough happening to override your instinct (like my management) to 'wait and see'. The constant drip, drip, drip hasn't been enough so far, why will that change for more than a handful of MPs?
    PMQs tomorrow, Humble Address, more embarrassing pressers, bad polls, couplemore MPs going public. That's how drip drip drips work.

    PMQs = Rayner v Raab do we think?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    Anyone else think that Tadhg Furlong looks like Steven Gerrard after he's eaten all the pies.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747
    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Oooft - brutal Qs from the BBC to Boris Johnson in Ukraine!

    Asked if he has done enough to save his premiership after 'partygate' and how foreign leaders can take British diplomacy seriously as he prioritised talking to MPs over Putin...

    https://twitter.com/LizzyBuchan/status/1488568358962401289

    Totally irresponsible question from the BBC.

    Ask at home maybe but not in Ukraine when Ukraine is desperately welcoming the support from the UK PM against Putin. All the BBC have done by that question is strengthen Putin
    Do you think that people aren't able to tune into British politics from Russia or Ukraine? That they only know that Boris has spaffed his moral authority and it hanging by a party streamer because of a question asked in Ukraine?
    Do you think that we should muzzle the press?
    Do you think, like, at all?
    I expect the average Ukrainian has far more things to worry about at the moment, like whether they are about to be invaded by Russia than to care about whether or not the UK PM ate a cake or not on his birthday produced by his wife at No 10.

    It was a totally disrespectful question by the BBC to the Ukrainians
    What is totally disrespectful to the Ukrainians is for a corrupt British PM who is under criminal investigation, ramping up the prospects of war in Ukraine and using them as a smokescreen to avoid scrutiny at home. Just admit it, Boris and his gang (including you) would love nothing more right now than for Putin to make a military incursion into Ukraine.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,355

    Heathener said:

    Late to the party so just saw the Savanta ComRes.

    11% ahead with Labour on 44%. Looking good.



    Oh dear, does that mean HYUFD has to call for Johnson's resignation?
    One can always hope

    Each conservative announcing they have submitted their letter to the 1922 gives me a lift and just hope it becomes an avalanche
    It's more like a trickle at the moment however.
    It is the direction of travel and I expect more after tomorrow's pmqs
    Your avalanche analogy is right.

    I forget who it was who said, about bankruptcy, that it "happens very gradually, then very suddenly".

    My reading is that is what is happening here. It will at times look very lacking in momentum, and people will say it is petering out. Then, very suddenly, he'll be gone.
    That's quite possible - but when? Thinking of similar physical processes - such as ice sheet collapse - it's essentially impossible to predict when the gradual thinning and melting will suddenly transition into breaking free and drifting off into the ocean.
    End of week???
    I hope that's an accurate prediction for the end of Johnson - and not the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet...
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    TOPPING said:

    Anyone else think that Tadhg Furlong looks like Steven Gerrard after he's eaten all the pies.

    So, say that to his face

    Brilliant name for an Irish horse dealer
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,908
    TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    No 10 dismiss Julian Smith's criticism of Johnson and stand by Johnson's Starmer/ Saville allegations. R4 ,PM.

    Boris is going strong on this.

    I really cannot understand why unless he has something that is a lot more direct than anything seen to date. Its another distraction technique and a deeply unimpressive one.
    I think it's pretty obvious.

    Now we're talking about whether Starmer actually protected Saville, and not about the fact that Johnson lied to Parliament. Repeatedly.
    This was of course @NickPalmer's point. The debate is now (partly) about Starmer/Savile not Boris/Partygate. People should have ignored the Savile jibe.
    .
    I don't think that's what's happening. Every news station has described it as 'a proven lie' and Tories who have been interviewed have had to be contrite on Johnson's behalf. This hasn't distracted anyone as far as I can see. When the BBC editorialise as desperation on the part of the Prime Minister there is no reflection on Starmer good or bad.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    edited February 2022

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Oooft - brutal Qs from the BBC to Boris Johnson in Ukraine!

    Asked if he has done enough to save his premiership after 'partygate' and how foreign leaders can take British diplomacy seriously as he prioritised talking to MPs over Putin...

    https://twitter.com/LizzyBuchan/status/1488568358962401289

    Totally irresponsible question from the BBC.

    Ask at home maybe but not in Ukraine when Ukraine is desperately welcoming the support from the UK PM against Putin. All the BBC have done by that question is strengthen Putin
    Well simply stop supporting the one man responsible for all this nonsense in the first place. If he could either apologise or even just tell the truth occasionally it would not be an issue.

    Your support for him weakens the West militarily. The West is weakened from the divisive autocratic nationalism you love and strengthened by the liberal democracy you seek to destroy.
    Utter rubbish.

    The Ukrainian Parliament today saw Ukrainian MPs wave the Nato, UK, US, Turkish, Canadian, Danish and Polish flags as all have given support against Putin. Notably absent were the EU, German and French flags as none of them have given any real support to Ukraine.

    https://twitter.com/KenWeinstein/status/1488559378261233672?s=20&t=F5MeBLxuJfxsD7jkw6tCHQ

    It is now diehard Remainers like you who are Putin's best friends by default as you desperately try and undermine Boris
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    edited February 2022
    MaxPB said:

    MrEd said:

    MaxPB said:

    MrEd said:

    MaxPB said:

    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    MaxPB said:

    MrEd said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    The Speaker needs to haul Boris into Parliament and make him apologise to Keir Starmer over the Jimmy Savile claim. It's such an outrageous claim with absolutely zero evidence (in fact Starmer was someone who helped uncover Savile's horrific legacy of rape and abuse). These kinds of claims need to be corrected and the Speaker should ask Boris to present evidence for his claim or make a retraction and apology.

    Of all the stupid things Boris said yesterday in the house, the claim about Starmer was the worst he's come out with in a very long time. It's a complete falsehood, a known complete falsehood and the PM has abused parliamentary privilege to slander Keir Starmer.

    I make no argument either way about Boris’ pretty OTT Savile remarks. Nonetheless Team Boris have done their research. This is a meme floating around, and it hovers over Starmer



    “Whether it’s fake news or not, Keir Starmer is actually remembered for the one that let Jimmy Savile get away. He was in charge of the CPS at the time. And I still don’t know who he is. He’s not made that impression.”

    From an October 2021 focus group
    Which is why it would be a good idea for the speaker to force Boris to give his evidence or retract and apologise. It's one thing for a random to believe a conspiracy or facebook meme, it's another for the PM to use parliamentary privilege to defame the leader of the opposition.
    Actually, Boris could defend himself - his argument would be that Starmer was DPP at the time and so should take responsibility, even if he was not directly involved. He may even argue why Starmer didn't take an interest in such a high profile case. Now, that causes problems for his own defence if he argues "I didn't know" about the parties but it's a defence.

    Remember, the CPS (as far as I am aware) no longer have the Saville case papers, saying they were shredded "in line with normal procedures". Going to be hard to prove Starmer's total innocence on this.
    Since when did the UK become a country where one had to prove their innocence? This is the problem with you Trump people, you want to tear down all of our laws, traditions and culture to protect your chosen one.
    You usually are quite level headed Max but you've gone a bit swivel eyed with that comment. You are probably one of those who thinks January 6th was worse than Pearl Harbor, 9/11 and World War I x20 - oh , and probably Auschwitz on top.

    In any event, you read my sentence wrong. I wasn't saying it's a legitimate defence itself, it was saying that would probably a defence Boris would / could use to muddy the waters. See what I wrote in reply to Nick P about why I thought BJ made his remarks.


    January 6th did more damage to American than Pearl Harbour. All the Japanese achieved with Pearl Harbour was absolute unanimity among Americans that the Japanese (and the rest of the Axis powers) needed to be stepped on.

    January 6th actual damaged American in fundamental ways.

    9/11 was a couple of building being knocked down - the stupid reaction damaged America greatly.
    I think the 10,000+ (and their families) who died directly and indirectly due to 9/11 plus the ones who died at Pearl Harbor and the Pacific campaign afterwards might disagree with you.

    As for 1/6 (in the American way), as I mentioned just now, Matt Talibi and Glenn Greenwald have explained far better than I can do why this idea of Jan 6th was a coup is not only a joke but fundamentally dangerous for American democracy:

    https://taibbi.substack.com/p/a-tale-of-two-authoritarians
    https://greenwald.substack.com/p/as-the-insurrection-narrative-crumbles

    But, hey, it's ok for Nancy Pelosi to praise Dick Cheney - a man who did more to undermine American democracy in his time probably since Nixon at least and possibly McCarthy - because he was against Jan 6th. That shows how fucked up the Democrats have become.
    Your grubby defence of those who tried to overthrow the government is quite alarming, that you support Boris reaffirms my decision to leave the Tory party and wanting him gone.
    Thank God you weren't in the War Cabinet in the 1940. You would have voted for the saintly Lord Halifax over WSC.

    And don't be such a holier-than-thou pompous ass.
    Explain your thought process behind this? It doesn't follow at all.
    Just got off a call, hence the delay.

    Many people in 1940 considered WSC to be the BJ of the day - incompetent, a grifter to the point of disreputable, a drunk and many things beside, including a political failure. If his career had ended in 1940, he would have been forgotten by now. Halifax, on the other day, was considered someone whose behaviour was, in many ways, beyond reproach. In fact, he was called "The Holy Fox".
    But that doesn't follow at all because Winston Churchill was an honourable person. Boris is a liar. Every time he opens his mouth he lies. His attack on Keir Starmer yesterday was another in a series of lies. I don't care about the other stuff, I care that he continually lies and cheats to stay in office just one more day. I care that he's running a permanent whipping operation from Number 10 and burning through political capital to stay in power rather than actually get the country growing faster and getting a handle on the now medium term energy crisis.

    Yesterday we had that farce of a session in the house and because Boris was, once again, burning through political capital to stay in power the PM of the UK was unable to speak to Putin on the eve of war. That degrades the office of the PM. He's put his personal survival ahead of the interests of the nation and now we're wholly reliant on France to represent European interests with Putin. Who really knows what Macron and Putin talked about? Who knows what Macron promised Putin?

    We have lost our chance to have a sovereign meeting of equals with Russia because the PM was too busy covering up his lies and failures.

    So no, it doesn't follow that wanting Boris out is the same as saying Churchill should have been prevented from taking over. In fact I'd say those who want him out are standing up for what's right, and that's something Churchill did in 1940 despite the easy option being appeasement just as those Tory MPs who aren't sending their letters in are taking the easy option of knuckling under.
    He’s right that, had Churchill’s career ended before he became PM, he’d have been a pretty shabby footnote in history, but was rescued because he was right, earlier than most Tories, about the threat from Germany, stuck to his view through thick and thin, and became the man for the hour when it mattered.

    Johnson, however, will be stuck with becoming a pretty shabby footnote in history despite achieving his lifelong ambition of getting to sit in the very same big chair.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    edited February 2022

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    JohnO said:

    Sorry, Nick P and Tissue Price but my all-time favourite pb MP was the fantasmogorical Stewart Jackson (then) from Peterborough. Moderation exemplified in outlook, benignly measured and restrained in expression. We will not see his like again.

    Lol! You do wonder what Peterborough has done to deserve the representatives it has had over the last 20 years or so.
    A dispassionate observer of Peterborough might suggest it got what it deserves?
    England is currently getting what she deserves. Unclear why the Welsh, Irish and Scots also have to suffer.
    It's called the Union. Scots chose to stick with it....for a generation.
    Your modern attempt at a Zinoviev Letter. No 'generation' in the Edinburgh Agreement or the Ballot paper. So that is another word for Anabob's Index Expurgatorius.
    That fat little bloke, you remember him? He that is the only leading politician of these islands with perhaps a more atrocious reputation than Boris Johnson, and was described by his own QC as "a bully and a sex pest" told everyone it was a "once in a generation opportunity". I believe he used to lead the SNP and was First Minister, so I guess he knew what he was saying.
    Froim the context, it was quite clear that it was at the end of a 'generation'; we had been waiting that long and more; but obiter dicta are not law, by definition so to speak. Nor is it consistent for you to pick and choose from the sayings of someone whom you obviously despise.
    Sorry, but what utter nonsense. It is perfectly consistent. It is utterly ridiculous to suggest that one cannot quote the words of a politician one does not like to illustrate a point. Of all those favouring Scottish independence on PB then you are normally the most rational, but I think the "picking and choosing" is your habit here, not mine.
    Come now! I was there; it was clear; we'd been waiting a generation, so extract digit and get on with it. Not wait a generation for the next one.
    I am sure that is meant to be tongue in cheek. If you believe it to be an argument you are no better than a Boris Johnson apologist.
    Not an argument but an observation about a passing comment by Mr Salmond which in fact turned out to be hopelessly ambiguous with two interpretations. So it'd be as daft for me to deploy that as it is for HYUFD, say. I've never actually applied that interpretation before, in fact, partly for that reason: I made it just now, however, to emphasise how pathetically useless it is to found any sort of argument on it (other than that it is useless, anyway), whatever one thought or thinks of Mr Salmond. And, er, is it not a little illogical for you to be so insistent on the British nationalist interpretation given your repudiation of nationalism?
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Oooft - brutal Qs from the BBC to Boris Johnson in Ukraine!

    Asked if he has done enough to save his premiership after 'partygate' and how foreign leaders can take British diplomacy seriously as he prioritised talking to MPs over Putin...

    https://twitter.com/LizzyBuchan/status/1488568358962401289

    Totally irresponsible question from the BBC.

    Ask at home maybe but not in Ukraine when Ukraine is desperately welcoming the support from the UK PM against Putin. All the BBC have done by that question is strengthen Putin
    Well simply stop supporting the one man responsible for all this nonsense in the first place. If he could either apologise or even just tell the truth occasionally it would not be an issue.

    Your support for him weakens the West militarily. The West is weakened from the divisive autocratic nationalism you love and strengthened by the liberal democracy you seek to destroy.
    Utter rubbish.

    The Ukrainian Parliament today saw Ukrainian MPs wave the Nato, UK, US, Turkish, Canadian, Danish and Polish flags as all have given support against Putin. Notably absent were the German and French flags as neither have given any real support to Ukraine.

    https://twitter.com/KenWeinstein/status/1488559378261233672?s=20&t=F5MeBLxuJfxsD7jkw6tCHQ

    It is now diehard Remainers like you who are Putin's best friends by default as you desperately try and undermine Boris
    Ha, we have left, I am not a remainer, or a rejoiner, I think we should stay out but build a constructive rather than adversarial relationship with the EU.
  • HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Oooft - brutal Qs from the BBC to Boris Johnson in Ukraine!

    Asked if he has done enough to save his premiership after 'partygate' and how foreign leaders can take British diplomacy seriously as he prioritised talking to MPs over Putin...

    https://twitter.com/LizzyBuchan/status/1488568358962401289

    Totally irresponsible question from the BBC.

    Ask at home maybe but not in Ukraine when Ukraine is desperately welcoming the support from the UK PM against Putin. All the BBC have done by that question is strengthen Putin
    You just cannot see how brutal this is and entirely self inflicted damage that is terminal for his premiership

    The sooner you join us seeking a new leader the more content you will be

    You cannot defend the indefensible
    He can and he will.

    Mr Ed denies a coup despite the evidence of his eyes and ears
    HYUFD denies the liar has brought the office into disrepute despite the evidence of his eyes and ears.

    I think its like self-hypnotism. People with a brain and with basic decency know what is right and what is wrong. I expect both are decent people, and defend indecency. It must be the same as the Corbyn cultists - they are so deep into the Kali Ma that they can't help support what moral decent principled people find appalling.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Charles Walker is a senior CRG member and very widely respected in the party. It feels significant that he's asking the PM to resign.

    My bet Steve Baker next Cons leader looking a bit healthier.
    How many letters can Walker convene? I might have to revise my oft-stated view if the CRG mobilises against him (assuming they have the necessary numbers).
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    Farooq said:

    Heathener said:

    Late to the party so just saw the Savanta ComRes.

    11% ahead with Labour on 44%. Looking good.



    Oh dear, does that mean HYUFD has to call for Johnson's resignation?
    One can always hope

    Each conservative announcing they have submitted their letter to the 1922 gives me a lift and just hope it becomes an avalanche
    It's more like a trickle at the moment however.
    It is the direction of travel and I expect more after tomorrow's pmqs
    Your avalanche analogy is right.

    I forget who it was who said, about bankruptcy, that it "happens very gradually, then very suddenly".

    My reading is that is what is happening here. It will at times look very lacking in momentum, and people will say it is petering out. Then, very suddenly, he'll be gone.
    That's quite possible - but when? Thinking of similar physical processes - such as ice sheet collapse - it's essentially impossible to predict when the gradual thinning and melting will suddenly transition into breaking free and drifting off into the ocean.
    End of week???
    We've been 3 days from a VONC for weeks now.
    There are jellyfish washed up on the beach that have more backbone than this lot.
    There are amoebas ...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Charles Walker is a senior CRG member and very widely respected in the party. It feels significant that he's asking the PM to resign.

    My bet Steve Baker next Cons leader looking a bit healthier.
    I agree with Baker on almost nothing, but he strikes me as an intelligent and decent guy.
    I started with a negative opinion based on his being one of the frothing lunatics.

    But he does seem a cut above the likes of Cash and Bridgen. His interview with Nick Robinson is well worth a listen.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Oooft - brutal Qs from the BBC to Boris Johnson in Ukraine!

    Asked if he has done enough to save his premiership after 'partygate' and how foreign leaders can take British diplomacy seriously as he prioritised talking to MPs over Putin...

    https://twitter.com/LizzyBuchan/status/1488568358962401289

    Totally irresponsible question from the BBC.

    Ask at home maybe but not in Ukraine when Ukraine is desperately welcoming the support from the UK PM against Putin. All the BBC have done by that question is strengthen Putin
    Well simply stop supporting the one man responsible for all this nonsense in the first place. If he could either apologise or even just tell the truth occasionally it would not be an issue.

    Your support for him weakens the West militarily. The West is weakened from the divisive autocratic nationalism you love and strengthened by the liberal democracy you seek to destroy.
    Utter rubbish.

    The Ukrainian Parliament today saw Ukrainian MPs wave the Nato, UK, US, Turkish, Canadian, Danish and Polish flags as all have given support against Putin. Notably absent were the EU, German and French flags as neither have given any real support to Ukraine.

    https://twitter.com/KenWeinstein/status/1488559378261233672?s=20&t=F5MeBLxuJfxsD7jkw6tCHQ

    It is now diehard Remainers like you who are Putin's best friends by default as you desperately try and undermine Boris
    Point of order - Boris is perfectly capable of undermining himself which he has done spectacularly over the last few weeks
  • Talking of Bozzatron’s diversionary tactics, did we ever hear any more about Rach, Ange and Bridget properly largin’ it on the old Jack and Jills?

    Blimey. We all watched Govey raving his tits off in Aberdeen but he must have been *seriously* tripping to think he is called Rach or Ange or Bridget.
  • Scott_xP said:

    ...

    Has he borrowed that tie from Donald Trump?
    And that belly too?
    He's definitely piling the pounds on again. Covid inspired weight loss forgotten it seems as he tucks into more cakes.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    IshmaelZ said:

    PJH said:

    PJH said:

    Heathener said:

    Late to the party so just saw the Savanta ComRes.

    11% ahead with Labour on 44%. Looking good.



    Oh dear, does that mean HYUFD has to call for Johnson's resignation?
    One can always hope

    Each conservative announcing they have submitted their letter to the 1922 gives me a lift and just hope it becomes an avalanche
    It's more like a trickle at the moment however.
    It is the direction of travel and I expect more after tomorrow's pmqs
    Your avalanche analogy is right.

    I forget who it was who said, about bankruptcy, that it "happens very gradually, then very suddenly".

    My reading is that is what is happening here. It will at times look very lacking in momentum, and people will say it is petering out. Then, very suddenly, he'll be gone.
    I don't agree, I doubt there will be a VONC any time soon.

    It’s time to look at my maxim on management decision making, based on 20 years of project management experience. “Management will always decide not to make a decision if that remains an option, especially if the point by which a decision should have been made has already passed”. For management read Tory MPs. So the real question is, when does not making a decision cease to be an option? I suggest after the May local elections next year. That would leave 12-18 months for a successor to turn things round. Until then there is always an excuse to wait, after that Johnson stays.

    For 54 letters to call for him to go before then would require something even worse to happen than heretofore (and it’s hard to see what that could be if Johnson’s performance isn’t already deemed unacceptable), or one of the potential candidates to succeed him to break ranks and force the issue (also unlikely).
    The 'worse' is happening every day and his interview in Kiev was a car crash, not for what he said but the caustic questions from journalists, and this is going to deteriorate every day including tomorrow's pmqs, especially if he uses Savile v Starmer

    Indeed, I now think he will be very fortunate to survive the week
    He will indeed be very fortunate. I know you have already decided, but my point is that if as a Tory MP you haven't already made your mind up, I can't see anything dramatic enough happening to override your instinct (like my management) to 'wait and see'. The constant drip, drip, drip hasn't been enough so far, why will that change for more than a handful of MPs?
    PMQs tomorrow, Humble Address, more embarrassing pressers, bad polls, couplemore MPs going public. That's how drip drip drips work.

    PMQs = Rayner v Raab do we think?
    That will be interesting.

    In presentational politics, big picture generally beats master of the detail (behind the scenes, often the opposite). Which is why Starmer often struggles against the clown. But Rayner is big picture and Raab is the lawyer; Rayner should be short odds on coming out ahead.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Charles Walker is a senior CRG member and very widely respected in the party. It feels significant that he's asking the PM to resign.

    My bet Steve Baker next Cons leader looking a bit healthier.
    How many letters can Walker convene? I might have to revise my oft-stated view if the CRG mobilises against him (assuming they have the necessary numbers).
    He's a died-in-the-wool hard Brexiteer though, is he not?

    I can see why the Tory membership might opt for him but I cannot see how it will help move things forward for making Brexit work.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,355
    kle4 said:

    It's not new, but I do love the comedy of absolutely straight reporting sometimes

    Russia has repeatedly denied planning any invasion of Ukraine, but has deployed an estimated 100,000 troops as well as tanks, artillery and missiles within reach of its borders.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60212716

    I mean, what they hell are they there for then?

    My prediction is now it doesn't happen, and Russia (and others) argue the whole thing was just 'The West' rampting things up, rather than reacting to that build up which (we may hope) prevented further action.

    There was an article someone linked to a week or two ago, that sounded pretty sure Russia would attack in some way, because if they didn't now they never would have as good a chance again. Everything is running away from them in the future: the Green transition away from fossil fuels, Ukraine receiving help to modernise its armed forces, Russia's economy struggling to support further strengthening of Russia's armed forces, Putin starting to get on and those around him think about the succession.

    An analogy he might think about is Croatia. In the initial phase of the war, 1991-2, Serbia was able to seize control of more than a quarter of Croatia. After a ceasefire, Croatia strengthened its military so that, by 1995, it was strong enough to regain control of most of that territory, with the remainder being reintegrated in 1998.

    The emphasis today by Johnson on Russian toecaps crossing the border, points to one way that this might play out that would be reasonably acceptable to both sides (except Ukraine). An air, missile and artillery bombardment of Ukraine by Russian forces could do severe damage to the Ukrainian armed forces, Ukrainian infrastructure and economy, delaying the point at which the Ukrainian armed forces might be strong enough to attempt to regain the Donbass by many years. But, since the Russians wouldn't actually have crossed the border, governments in the West might console themselves with the thought that it could have been worse, and pat themselves on the back for deterring an assault on Kiev.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Heathener said:

    No 10 dismiss Julian Smith's criticism of Johnson and stand by Johnson's Starmer/ Saville allegations. R4 ,PM.

    Boris is going strong on this.

    Please if you are going to keep on going on and on and on about how wonderful Boris was on Savile can you spell his name correctly?

    Most of the rest of us think that it was a blunder by Boris and it's everyone else who is going strong on Johnson for the mistake.
    Many posters on here would be surprised at my "support" for Boris Johnson, not least myself.

    My view when I heard the allegation in the HoC was that it will prove to be bad for Starmer and Labour. "No smoke, no fire" as former Southampton Manager Dave Jones suggested.

    A big story on the R4 6 o'clock news! I do not believe the allegations myself, they have comprehensively been debunked, but I can understand why Johnson when cornered, made them. I can also see that having accused Starmer, why he is doubling down, despite all the evidence supporting Starmer.

    It was a cynical move but that wouldn't deter Johnson and it might help him, and rather undermine Starmer.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Charles Walker is a senior CRG member and very widely respected in the party. It feels significant that he's asking the PM to resign.

    My bet Steve Baker next Cons leader looking a bit healthier.
    I agree with Baker on almost nothing, but he strikes me as an intelligent and decent guy.
    I started with a negative opinion based on his being one of the frothing lunatics.

    But he does seem a cut above the likes of Cash and Bridgen. His interview with Nick Robinson is well worth a listen.
    Yes, saw that. And he often surprises with his views on things.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jul/13/leading-tory-mp-says-party-must-change-attitude-on-taking-the-knee
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,748
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Oooft - brutal Qs from the BBC to Boris Johnson in Ukraine!

    Asked if he has done enough to save his premiership after 'partygate' and how foreign leaders can take British diplomacy seriously as he prioritised talking to MPs over Putin...

    https://twitter.com/LizzyBuchan/status/1488568358962401289

    Totally irresponsible question from the BBC.

    Ask at home maybe but not in Ukraine when Ukraine is desperately welcoming the support from the UK PM against Putin. All the BBC have done by that question is strengthen Putin
    Well simply stop supporting the one man responsible for all this nonsense in the first place. If he could either apologise or even just tell the truth occasionally it would not be an issue.

    Your support for him weakens the West militarily. The West is weakened from the divisive autocratic nationalism you love and strengthened by the liberal democracy you seek to destroy.
    Utter rubbish.

    The Ukrainian Parliament today saw Ukrainian MPs wave the Nato, UK, US, Turkish, Canadian, Danish and Polish flags as all have given support against Putin. Notably absent were the EU, German and French flags as none of them have given any real support to Ukraine.

    https://twitter.com/KenWeinstein/status/1488559378261233672?s=20&t=F5MeBLxuJfxsD7jkw6tCHQ

    It is now diehard Remainers like you who are Putin's best friends by default as you desperately try and undermine Boris
    They really need to review your medication urgently.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Oooft - brutal Qs from the BBC to Boris Johnson in Ukraine!

    Asked if he has done enough to save his premiership after 'partygate' and how foreign leaders can take British diplomacy seriously as he prioritised talking to MPs over Putin...

    https://twitter.com/LizzyBuchan/status/1488568358962401289

    Totally irresponsible question from the BBC.

    Ask at home maybe but not in Ukraine when Ukraine is desperately welcoming the support from the UK PM against Putin. All the BBC have done by that question is strengthen Putin
    Well simply stop supporting the one man responsible for all this nonsense in the first place. If he could either apologise or even just tell the truth occasionally it would not be an issue.

    Your support for him weakens the West militarily. The West is weakened from the divisive autocratic nationalism you love and strengthened by the liberal democracy you seek to destroy.
    Utter rubbish.

    The Ukrainian Parliament today saw Ukrainian MPs wave the Nato, UK, US, Turkish, Canadian, Danish and Polish flags as all have given support against Putin. Notably absent were the EU, German and French flags as none of them have given any real support to Ukraine.

    https://twitter.com/KenWeinstein/status/1488559378261233672?s=20&t=F5MeBLxuJfxsD7jkw6tCHQ

    It is now diehard Remainers like you who are Putin's best friends by default as you desperately try and undermine Boris
    Diehard Remainer SeanT is a big Putin fan is he not?
  • kle4 said:

    kjh said:

    MrEd said:

    kjh said:

    MrEd said:

    kjh said:

    MrEd said:

    Farooq said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    The Speaker needs to haul Boris into Parliament and make him apologise to Keir Starmer over the Jimmy Savile claim. It's such an outrageous claim with absolutely zero evidence (in fact Starmer was someone who helped uncover Savile's horrific legacy of rape and abuse). These kinds of claims need to be corrected and the Speaker should ask Boris to present evidence for his claim or make a retraction and apology.

    Of all the stupid things Boris said yesterday in the house, the claim about Starmer was the worst he's come out with in a very long time. It's a complete falsehood, a known complete falsehood and the PM has abused parliamentary privilege to slander Keir Starmer.

    I make no argument either way about Boris’ pretty OTT Savile remarks. Nonetheless Team Boris have done their research. This is a meme floating around, and it hovers over Starmer



    “Whether it’s fake news or not, Keir Starmer is actually remembered for the one that let Jimmy Savile get away. He was in charge of the CPS at the time. And I still don’t know who he is. He’s not made that impression.”

    From an October 2021 focus group
    Sounds like you are defending 'Team Boris', as you so obsequiously put it.

    And to think I thought you'd discovered a moral backbone these days? Perhaps I was misinformed?

    For the avoidance of doubt, i will say, for the 90th time, I think Boris should resign, He’s lied too much and too clearly, on a much too resonant subject - lockdown and the breaking thereof - it is immoral for him to stay where he is.

    I say this with sadness because ( yes yes, cue much derision) he had greatness in him, from my perspective. But he just can’t deliver anything now

    Now, with that established, we can argue the other points. Politically can he survive? Yes, possibly. Also he could even win in 2024, he has the kind of character than can bounce back.

    And the motives of some of his enemies - who would have destroyed democracy with a “people’s vote” (ie cancel the first vote) are pukeworthy. Starmer is one such. Happy to cancel democracy. C*nt
    Do you view the five-yearly general elections as cancelling democracy.
    Stop being ridiculous. And boring
    If you ask a different set of people to vote again about a political question that one set of people has voted on, then there is an argument for saying it is an affront to democracy. But a second vote, hugely impractical as it would have been, would have been perfectly democratic because you would have been asking the same people and they would have been allowed to change their minds or not change their minds.

    dipshit
    “We’re going to give you a once in a lifetime vote on the most important political subject of our time and whatever you vote YOUR vote will be RESPECTED and we will obey it, and there will be no second EU vote, no rethink, nothing like that, this is IT, the will of the British people will be RESPECTED, once and for all and I solemnly promise you this, it is IN or OUT and I am your prime minister”.. and… “What’s more to prove this is true we will send a leaflet to every single British household swearing this is the case, this is it, this is the vote”

    Cue the largest EVER vote in the history of British democracy. The largest EVER. 17.4 MILLION votes in favour of LEAVE

    I guess these silly stupid thick racist voters didn’t read the bits in invisible ink at the end saying “oh this is all shit you working class idiots if you vote Leave we will just fanny around for three years then have an election then reverse what you said you racist proles”

    I’m sorry, there’s no getting round this. Anyone who wanted a 2nd vote, without enacting the first, ie who wanted to “cancel” or “finesse” democracy” is a Trumpite Capitol-storming Fuck-sucker of the first water, just with a posher accent


    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/what-the-capitol-riots-and-the-plot-to-stop-brexit-have-in-common
    It is not apparent that you are100% sure how democracy works.

    No shame there but to boil it down it consists of asking "the people" questions and then they decide one way or another.
    David Cameron, speaking directly to the British people, in 2015



    “Ultimately it will be the judgment of the British people in the referendum... You will have to judge what is best for you and your family, for your children and grandchildren, for our country, for our future. It will be your decision whether to remain in the EU on the basis of the reforms we secure, or whether we leave. Your decision. Nobody else’s. Not politicians’. Not Parliament’s. Not lobby groups’. Not mine. Just you. You, the British people, will decide. At that moment, you will hold this country’s destiny in your hands. This is a huge decision for our country, perhaps the biggest we will make in our lifetimes. And it will be the final decision.'”

    '”So to those who suggest that a decision in the referendum to leave would merely produce another stronger renegotiation, and then a second referendum in which Britain would stay, I say: think again. The renegotiation is happening right now. And the referendum that follows will be a once in a generation choice. An in or out referendum. When the British people speak, their voice will be respected – not ignored. If we vote to leave, then we will leave. There will not be another renegotiation and another referendum.'”

    I guess you must have been a 2nd “people’s” voter, hence your squirming embarrassment. Fair enough
    It's moot now but there are a lot of people here who like to lecture each other about democracy. As I see it western democracy has its roots in Ancient Greek democracy, notably that of Athens. It is not out of the question to adopt precedent from Ancient Athens. In 427BC the Athenian Assembly, open to all male citizens as soon as they qualified for citizenship, voted to massacre all the Mytileneans. A warship was duly despatched. However, the Athenians saw within a day or two that they had made a mistake and decided to vote again. This time the vote went against the proposition. A fast ship was despatched to catch up with the first and made it in time to countermand the order.

    Now, I'm a lawyer, I deal with precedent, and I accept that the experiences of two and a half millennia ago may not be the most persuasive to modern voters. But if the people who invented our democratic tradition could change their minds before a popular vote was implemented, then so could we.

    As for the overblown "coup" claims - neither People's Vote nor Jan 6.2021 were attempted coups. A coup a sudden, violent, and illegal seizure of power from a government. In order to achieve that you need to take control of all branches of government and neither had the means or a plan to do that.
    I find it extremely dubious to claim that in order for there to be an (attempted) coup you need to (attempt to) take control of ALL branches of government. I see no reason why that should be the case. The presidency has some sovereign executive power, and it's arguably the most powerful individual position in the world.
    You might argue that attempting to take or remain in the job through violent and illegal means (these conditions were certainly met!) would be ineffective on its own (I would dispute that, but let's go with it), but that doesn't mean it's not an attempted coup. You might argue that the Houses could remove such a "president", but again, that doesn't mean they will.
    There is no point arguing with you on this because you will just shout and scream Trumpist but both Glenn Greenwald and Matt Talibi have written very good pieces about why the January 6th riots were not a coup by any stretch of the imagination (as well as the reasons why the Democrats are seeking to turn Jan 6th into some sort of Holy memorial).
    No of course it wasn't. The hangman's noose was just for fun as was the policeman who got a fire extinguisher shoved in his face and the lady shot dead by the police while trying to batter down the doors to the chamber and the vice president and elected officials rushed out by armed guards. And the ex president telling the crown to march on Capitol hill and pressuring the VP to not validate the result. Not a coup attempt at all. No what could we all be thinking? Just a friendly little picnic.
    Didn't say it was a picnic. Look at what @DougSeal said, that is my view as well. It was a riot and Trump massively outstepped things. But it was not a coup.

    Things don't have to be Black or White, they can be shades of grey.

    You are deluded. It was coup attempt clear and simple, admittedly many of the rioters were Trumps pawns, but that is obviously the case in many coups. Trump was trying to overturn the result and if not that stop it being declared.
    Funny, as I posted before, some of the best (and left-wing) commentators don't agree with your view. But I guess you know more than them:

    https://taibbi.substack.com/p/a-tale-of-two-authoritarians
    https://greenwald.substack.com/p/civil-liberties-are-being-trampled-8bf

    Maybe you are the deluded one - it might help if you could stop frothing every time you hear the word Trump mentioned. As I said to @Malmesbury, your side has become so wrapped up in hatred, you are even willing to publicly praise Dick Cheney, who truly was a threat to American democracy.

    I will even give you an extra bone - it looks like there was Russian collusion in the 2016 election. Only, looks like it was come from Hillary:

    https://www.realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2022/01/27/what_did_clinton_know_about_the_russiagate_smear_and_when_did_she_know_it_the_evidence_builds_813739.html#!

    d) If you can't tell that was attempted coup then you clearly are the deluded one. The crowd invaded the county's parliament, tried to stop a president being appointed, the elected representatives had to flee for their lives, people were killed and arms drawn and all encouraged by the person who wanted to take power and when he had the opportunity to stop it refused for sometime.
    There is a bit of an attempt to overlook all that for some reason. If people think a coup can only be when some chap in army greens takes over the TV stations to annouce the Committee for Restoration of Democracy through Killing People, sure, it is not a coup, but the violent storming of a legislature to prevent a legitimate procedure in the handover of power, at best tacitly encouraged by the losing side?

    That's a coup attempt.
    Of course. How much more evidence do we now need? On the day we saw speaker after speaker whip the crowd into a frenzy until Trump ordered them to march on the Capital. We saw them searching for the "traitor Pence".

    Later we found out the back story. Pence being asked by Trump to overturn the result. Pence checking out the idea with Dan Quayle to be told "no, no, NO". Trump calling state officials demanding they overturn the result. Fake elector certificates being created. And now the absurd plan to install Trump as House Speaker and then impeach / murder Biden and Harris.

    America is no longer a democracy. Its That Bad.
  • IanB2 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    PJH said:

    PJH said:

    Heathener said:

    Late to the party so just saw the Savanta ComRes.

    11% ahead with Labour on 44%. Looking good.



    Oh dear, does that mean HYUFD has to call for Johnson's resignation?
    One can always hope

    Each conservative announcing they have submitted their letter to the 1922 gives me a lift and just hope it becomes an avalanche
    It's more like a trickle at the moment however.
    It is the direction of travel and I expect more after tomorrow's pmqs
    Your avalanche analogy is right.

    I forget who it was who said, about bankruptcy, that it "happens very gradually, then very suddenly".

    My reading is that is what is happening here. It will at times look very lacking in momentum, and people will say it is petering out. Then, very suddenly, he'll be gone.
    I don't agree, I doubt there will be a VONC any time soon.

    It’s time to look at my maxim on management decision making, based on 20 years of project management experience. “Management will always decide not to make a decision if that remains an option, especially if the point by which a decision should have been made has already passed”. For management read Tory MPs. So the real question is, when does not making a decision cease to be an option? I suggest after the May local elections next year. That would leave 12-18 months for a successor to turn things round. Until then there is always an excuse to wait, after that Johnson stays.

    For 54 letters to call for him to go before then would require something even worse to happen than heretofore (and it’s hard to see what that could be if Johnson’s performance isn’t already deemed unacceptable), or one of the potential candidates to succeed him to break ranks and force the issue (also unlikely).
    The 'worse' is happening every day and his interview in Kiev was a car crash, not for what he said but the caustic questions from journalists, and this is going to deteriorate every day including tomorrow's pmqs, especially if he uses Savile v Starmer

    Indeed, I now think he will be very fortunate to survive the week
    He will indeed be very fortunate. I know you have already decided, but my point is that if as a Tory MP you haven't already made your mind up, I can't see anything dramatic enough happening to override your instinct (like my management) to 'wait and see'. The constant drip, drip, drip hasn't been enough so far, why will that change for more than a handful of MPs?
    PMQs tomorrow, Humble Address, more embarrassing pressers, bad polls, couplemore MPs going public. That's how drip drip drips work.

    PMQs = Rayner v Raab do we think?
    That will be interesting.

    In presentational politics, big picture generally beats master of the detail (behind the scenes, often the opposite). Which is why Starmer often struggles against the clown. But Rayner is big picture and Raab is the lawyer; Rayner should be short odds on coming out ahead.
    I expect it to be Boris v Starmer and pure theatre

    Boris is home this evening
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Oooft - brutal Qs from the BBC to Boris Johnson in Ukraine!

    Asked if he has done enough to save his premiership after 'partygate' and how foreign leaders can take British diplomacy seriously as he prioritised talking to MPs over Putin...

    https://twitter.com/LizzyBuchan/status/1488568358962401289

    Totally irresponsible question from the BBC.

    Ask at home maybe but not in Ukraine when Ukraine is desperately welcoming the support from the UK PM against Putin. All the BBC have done by that question is strengthen Putin
    Well simply stop supporting the one man responsible for all this nonsense in the first place. If he could either apologise or even just tell the truth occasionally it would not be an issue.

    Your support for him weakens the West militarily. The West is weakened from the divisive autocratic nationalism you love and strengthened by the liberal democracy you seek to destroy.
    Utter rubbish.

    The Ukrainian Parliament today saw Ukrainian MPs wave the Nato, UK, US, Turkish, Canadian, Danish and Polish flags as all have given support against Putin. Notably absent were the EU, German and French flags as none of them have given any real support to Ukraine.

    https://twitter.com/KenWeinstein/status/1488559378261233672?s=20&t=F5MeBLxuJfxsD7jkw6tCHQ

    It is now diehard Remainers like you who are Putin's best friends by default as you desperately try and undermine Boris
    lol.

    The ‘Boris’ who has done nothing to stop crooked Russian money swilling around London’s investment and property markets?

    The ‘Boris’ who didn’t mind the Russian money flowing toward UKiP and the Leave campaign, and lapping at the shores of his own party?

    Trying to pose as a statesman the day after his performance as a sinking clown convinces no-one.

    It simply leaves us wishing that we still had a real statesman or woman that we could send abroad without worrying about yet more embarrassment for our country on the world stage.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Oooft - brutal Qs from the BBC to Boris Johnson in Ukraine!

    Asked if he has done enough to save his premiership after 'partygate' and how foreign leaders can take British diplomacy seriously as he prioritised talking to MPs over Putin...

    https://twitter.com/LizzyBuchan/status/1488568358962401289

    Totally irresponsible question from the BBC.

    Ask at home maybe but not in Ukraine when Ukraine is desperately welcoming the support from the UK PM against Putin. All the BBC have done by that question is strengthen Putin
    Well simply stop supporting the one man responsible for all this nonsense in the first place. If he could either apologise or even just tell the truth occasionally it would not be an issue.

    Your support for him weakens the West militarily. The West is weakened from the divisive autocratic nationalism you love and strengthened by the liberal democracy you seek to destroy.
    Utter rubbish.

    The Ukrainian Parliament today saw Ukrainian MPs wave the Nato, UK, US, Turkish, Canadian, Danish and Polish flags as all have given support against Putin. Notably absent were the EU, German and French flags as none of them have given any real support to Ukraine.

    https://twitter.com/KenWeinstein/status/1488559378261233672?s=20&t=F5MeBLxuJfxsD7jkw6tCHQ

    It is now diehard Remainers like you who are Putin's best friends by default as you desperately try and undermine Boris
    Diehard Remainer SeanT is a big Putin fan is he not?
    No, he just is equally not a big fan of woke.

    On no definition is he a diehard Remainer either
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633

    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    Has he borrowed that tie from Donald Trump?
    And that belly too?
    He's definitely piling the pounds on again. Covid inspired weight loss forgotten it seems as he tucks into more cakes.
    Washed down with a few bottles from the suitcase.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IanB2 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    PJH said:

    PJH said:

    Heathener said:

    Late to the party so just saw the Savanta ComRes.

    11% ahead with Labour on 44%. Looking good.



    Oh dear, does that mean HYUFD has to call for Johnson's resignation?
    One can always hope

    Each conservative announcing they have submitted their letter to the 1922 gives me a lift and just hope it becomes an avalanche
    It's more like a trickle at the moment however.
    It is the direction of travel and I expect more after tomorrow's pmqs
    Your avalanche analogy is right.

    I forget who it was who said, about bankruptcy, that it "happens very gradually, then very suddenly".

    My reading is that is what is happening here. It will at times look very lacking in momentum, and people will say it is petering out. Then, very suddenly, he'll be gone.
    I don't agree, I doubt there will be a VONC any time soon.

    It’s time to look at my maxim on management decision making, based on 20 years of project management experience. “Management will always decide not to make a decision if that remains an option, especially if the point by which a decision should have been made has already passed”. For management read Tory MPs. So the real question is, when does not making a decision cease to be an option? I suggest after the May local elections next year. That would leave 12-18 months for a successor to turn things round. Until then there is always an excuse to wait, after that Johnson stays.

    For 54 letters to call for him to go before then would require something even worse to happen than heretofore (and it’s hard to see what that could be if Johnson’s performance isn’t already deemed unacceptable), or one of the potential candidates to succeed him to break ranks and force the issue (also unlikely).
    The 'worse' is happening every day and his interview in Kiev was a car crash, not for what he said but the caustic questions from journalists, and this is going to deteriorate every day including tomorrow's pmqs, especially if he uses Savile v Starmer

    Indeed, I now think he will be very fortunate to survive the week
    He will indeed be very fortunate. I know you have already decided, but my point is that if as a Tory MP you haven't already made your mind up, I can't see anything dramatic enough happening to override your instinct (like my management) to 'wait and see'. The constant drip, drip, drip hasn't been enough so far, why will that change for more than a handful of MPs?
    PMQs tomorrow, Humble Address, more embarrassing pressers, bad polls, couplemore MPs going public. That's how drip drip drips work.

    PMQs = Rayner v Raab do we think?
    That will be interesting.

    In presentational politics, big picture generally beats master of the detail (behind the scenes, often the opposite). Which is why Starmer often struggles against the clown. But Rayner is big picture and Raab is the lawyer; Rayner should be short odds on coming out ahead.
    I expect it to be Boris v Starmer and pure theatre

    Boris is home this evening
    Dull. Repeat of yday
  • Heathener said:

    No 10 dismiss Julian Smith's criticism of Johnson and stand by Johnson's Starmer/ Saville allegations. R4 ,PM.

    Boris is going strong on this.

    Please if you are going to keep on going on and on and on about how wonderful Boris was on Savile can you spell his name correctly?

    Most of the rest of us think that it was a blunder by Boris and it's everyone else who is going strong on Johnson for the mistake.
    Many posters on here would be surprised at my "support" for Boris Johnson, not least myself.

    My view when I heard the allegation in the HoC was that it will prove to be bad for Starmer and Labour. "No smoke, no fire" as former Southampton Manager Dave Jones suggested.

    A big story on the R4 6 o'clock news! I do not believe the allegations myself, they have comprehensively been debunked, but I can understand why Johnson when cornered, made them. I can also see that having accused Starmer, why he is doubling down, despite all the evidence supporting Starmer.

    It was a cynical move but that wouldn't deter Johnson and it might help him, and rather undermine Starmer.
    If this nonsense was being saved for the GE campaign rather than Johnson just making it up on the hoof, then Tories have one less load of bollx to throw at Starmer come 2024.
  • MaxPB said:

    Scott_xP said:

    MaxPB said:

    Charles Walker is a senior CRG member and very widely respected in the party. It feels significant that he's asking the PM to resign.

    And the whips have no hold over him any more
    It's not just that, it's more the case that he feels like a man in a grey suit giving Boris a bloodless way out. A way to salvage some shred of dignity before they rip him out of Number 10.
    Yeah thats what this is starting to look like. Before the leader decides to resign there is always a movement of the "men in grey suits" pointing out the jig is up and would they like to go now with dignity or go later with disgrace?

    Sadly they are trying to remove the lying cheating scumbag. He will cling on until they carry him out.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786

    kle4 said:

    kjh said:

    MrEd said:

    kjh said:

    MrEd said:

    kjh said:

    MrEd said:

    Farooq said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    The Speaker needs to haul Boris into Parliament and make him apologise to Keir Starmer over the Jimmy Savile claim. It's such an outrageous claim with absolutely zero evidence (in fact Starmer was someone who helped uncover Savile's horrific legacy of rape and abuse). These kinds of claims need to be corrected and the Speaker should ask Boris to present evidence for his claim or make a retraction and apology.

    Of all the stupid things Boris said yesterday in the house, the claim about Starmer was the worst he's come out with in a very long time. It's a complete falsehood, a known complete falsehood and the PM has abused parliamentary privilege to slander Keir Starmer.

    I make no argument either way about Boris’ pretty OTT Savile remarks. Nonetheless Team Boris have done their research. This is a meme floating around, and it hovers over Starmer



    “Whether it’s fake news or not, Keir Starmer is actually remembered for the one that let Jimmy Savile get away. He was in charge of the CPS at the time. And I still don’t know who he is. He’s not made that impression.”

    From an October 2021 focus group
    Sounds like you are defending 'Team Boris', as you so obsequiously put it.

    And to think I thought you'd discovered a moral backbone these days? Perhaps I was misinformed?

    For the avoidance of doubt, i will say, for the 90th time, I think Boris should resign, He’s lied too much and too clearly, on a much too resonant subject - lockdown and the breaking thereof - it is immoral for him to stay where he is.

    I say this with sadness because ( yes yes, cue much derision) he had greatness in him, from my perspective. But he just can’t deliver anything now

    Now, with that established, we can argue the other points. Politically can he survive? Yes, possibly. Also he could even win in 2024, he has the kind of character than can bounce back.

    And the motives of some of his enemies - who would have destroyed democracy with a “people’s vote” (ie cancel the first vote) are pukeworthy. Starmer is one such. Happy to cancel democracy. C*nt
    Do you view the five-yearly general elections as cancelling democracy.
    Stop being ridiculous. And boring
    If you ask a different set of people to vote again about a political question that one set of people has voted on, then there is an argument for saying it is an affront to democracy. But a second vote, hugely impractical as it would have been, would have been perfectly democratic because you would have been asking the same people and they would have been allowed to change their minds or not change their minds.

    dipshit
    “We’re going to give you a once in a lifetime vote on the most important political subject of our time and whatever you vote YOUR vote will be RESPECTED and we will obey it, and there will be no second EU vote, no rethink, nothing like that, this is IT, the will of the British people will be RESPECTED, once and for all and I solemnly promise you this, it is IN or OUT and I am your prime minister”.. and… “What’s more to prove this is true we will send a leaflet to every single British household swearing this is the case, this is it, this is the vote”

    Cue the largest EVER vote in the history of British democracy. The largest EVER. 17.4 MILLION votes in favour of LEAVE

    I guess these silly stupid thick racist voters didn’t read the bits in invisible ink at the end saying “oh this is all shit you working class idiots if you vote Leave we will just fanny around for three years then have an election then reverse what you said you racist proles”

    I’m sorry, there’s no getting round this. Anyone who wanted a 2nd vote, without enacting the first, ie who wanted to “cancel” or “finesse” democracy” is a Trumpite Capitol-storming Fuck-sucker of the first water, just with a posher accent


    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/what-the-capitol-riots-and-the-plot-to-stop-brexit-have-in-common
    It is not apparent that you are100% sure how democracy works.

    No shame there but to boil it down it consists of asking "the people" questions and then they decide one way or another.
    David Cameron, speaking directly to the British people, in 2015



    “Ultimately it will be the judgment of the British people in the referendum... You will have to judge what is best for you and your family, for your children and grandchildren, for our country, for our future. It will be your decision whether to remain in the EU on the basis of the reforms we secure, or whether we leave. Your decision. Nobody else’s. Not politicians’. Not Parliament’s. Not lobby groups’. Not mine. Just you. You, the British people, will decide. At that moment, you will hold this country’s destiny in your hands. This is a huge decision for our country, perhaps the biggest we will make in our lifetimes. And it will be the final decision.'”

    '”So to those who suggest that a decision in the referendum to leave would merely produce another stronger renegotiation, and then a second referendum in which Britain would stay, I say: think again. The renegotiation is happening right now. And the referendum that follows will be a once in a generation choice. An in or out referendum. When the British people speak, their voice will be respected – not ignored. If we vote to leave, then we will leave. There will not be another renegotiation and another referendum.'”

    I guess you must have been a 2nd “people’s” voter, hence your squirming embarrassment. Fair enough
    It's moot now but there are a lot of people here who like to lecture each other about democracy. As I see it western democracy has its roots in Ancient Greek democracy, notably that of Athens. It is not out of the question to adopt precedent from Ancient Athens. In 427BC the Athenian Assembly, open to all male citizens as soon as they qualified for citizenship, voted to massacre all the Mytileneans. A warship was duly despatched. However, the Athenians saw within a day or two that they had made a mistake and decided to vote again. This time the vote went against the proposition. A fast ship was despatched to catch up with the first and made it in time to countermand the order.

    Now, I'm a lawyer, I deal with precedent, and I accept that the experiences of two and a half millennia ago may not be the most persuasive to modern voters. But if the people who invented our democratic tradition could change their minds before a popular vote was implemented, then so could we.

    As for the overblown "coup" claims - neither People's Vote nor Jan 6.2021 were attempted coups. A coup a sudden, violent, and illegal seizure of power from a government. In order to achieve that you need to take control of all branches of government and neither had the means or a plan to do that.
    I find it extremely dubious to claim that in order for there to be an (attempted) coup you need to (attempt to) take control of ALL branches of government. I see no reason why that should be the case. The presidency has some sovereign executive power, and it's arguably the most powerful individual position in the world.
    You might argue that attempting to take or remain in the job through violent and illegal means (these conditions were certainly met!) would be ineffective on its own (I would dispute that, but let's go with it), but that doesn't mean it's not an attempted coup. You might argue that the Houses could remove such a "president", but again, that doesn't mean they will.
    There is no point arguing with you on this because you will just shout and scream Trumpist but both Glenn Greenwald and Matt Talibi have written very good pieces about why the January 6th riots were not a coup by any stretch of the imagination (as well as the reasons why the Democrats are seeking to turn Jan 6th into some sort of Holy memorial).
    No of course it wasn't. The hangman's noose was just for fun as was the policeman who got a fire extinguisher shoved in his face and the lady shot dead by the police while trying to batter down the doors to the chamber and the vice president and elected officials rushed out by armed guards. And the ex president telling the crown to march on Capitol hill and pressuring the VP to not validate the result. Not a coup attempt at all. No what could we all be thinking? Just a friendly little picnic.
    Didn't say it was a picnic. Look at what @DougSeal said, that is my view as well. It was a riot and Trump massively outstepped things. But it was not a coup.

    Things don't have to be Black or White, they can be shades of grey.

    You are deluded. It was coup attempt clear and simple, admittedly many of the rioters were Trumps pawns, but that is obviously the case in many coups. Trump was trying to overturn the result and if not that stop it being declared.
    Funny, as I posted before, some of the best (and left-wing) commentators don't agree with your view. But I guess you know more than them:

    https://taibbi.substack.com/p/a-tale-of-two-authoritarians
    https://greenwald.substack.com/p/civil-liberties-are-being-trampled-8bf

    Maybe you are the deluded one - it might help if you could stop frothing every time you hear the word Trump mentioned. As I said to @Malmesbury, your side has become so wrapped up in hatred, you are even willing to publicly praise Dick Cheney, who truly was a threat to American democracy.

    I will even give you an extra bone - it looks like there was Russian collusion in the 2016 election. Only, looks like it was come from Hillary:

    https://www.realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2022/01/27/what_did_clinton_know_about_the_russiagate_smear_and_when_did_she_know_it_the_evidence_builds_813739.html#!

    d) If you can't tell that was attempted coup then you clearly are the deluded one. The crowd invaded the county's parliament, tried to stop a president being appointed, the elected representatives had to flee for their lives, people were killed and arms drawn and all encouraged by the person who wanted to take power and when he had the opportunity to stop it refused for sometime.
    There is a bit of an attempt to overlook all that for some reason. If people think a coup can only be when some chap in army greens takes over the TV stations to annouce the Committee for Restoration of Democracy through Killing People, sure, it is not a coup, but the violent storming of a legislature to prevent a legitimate procedure in the handover of power, at best tacitly encouraged by the losing side?

    That's a coup attempt.
    Of course. How much more evidence do we now need? On the day we saw speaker after speaker whip the crowd into a frenzy until Trump ordered them to march on the Capital. We saw them searching for the "traitor Pence".

    Later we found out the back story. Pence being asked by Trump to overturn the result. Pence checking out the idea with Dan Quayle to be told "no, no, NO". Trump calling state officials demanding they overturn the result. Fake elector certificates being created. And now the absurd plan to install Trump as House Speaker and then impeach / murder Biden and Harris.

    America is no longer a democracy. Its That Bad.
    No you are wrong. Ask MrEd. Just a misunderstanding and handbags at dawn, that's all. After all nobody died, did they......
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_xP said:

    MaxPB said:

    Charles Walker is a senior CRG member and very widely respected in the party. It feels significant that he's asking the PM to resign.

    And the whips have no hold over him any more
    It's not just that, it's more the case that he feels like a man in a grey suit giving Boris a bloodless way out. A way to salvage some shred of dignity before they rip him out of Number 10.
    Yeah thats what this is starting to look like. Before the leader decides to resign there is always a movement of the "men in grey suits" pointing out the jig is up and would they like to go now with dignity or go later with disgrace?

    Sadly they are trying to remove the lying cheating scumbag. He will cling on until they carry him out.
    He could well try to cling on even after the Tory party has selected a new leader. After all it's Boris we are talking about here.
  • tlg86 said:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-10464943/Kevin-Friend-DROPPED-Premier-Leagues-round-games-refereeing-display.html

    Interesting that it’s the ref that’s taken the hit. I think the VAR (Craig Pawson) is more to blame.

    Yes, the referee got it right first time. The VAR Team then put him in a very difficult position. Unfortunately he decided not to stand his ground but who can blame him? There was no reason for them to call him over unless they thought there was a palpable error, which there palpably wasn't.

  • Farooq said:

    IanB2 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    PJH said:

    PJH said:

    Heathener said:

    Late to the party so just saw the Savanta ComRes.

    11% ahead with Labour on 44%. Looking good.



    Oh dear, does that mean HYUFD has to call for Johnson's resignation?
    One can always hope

    Each conservative announcing they have submitted their letter to the 1922 gives me a lift and just hope it becomes an avalanche
    It's more like a trickle at the moment however.
    It is the direction of travel and I expect more after tomorrow's pmqs
    Your avalanche analogy is right.

    I forget who it was who said, about bankruptcy, that it "happens very gradually, then very suddenly".

    My reading is that is what is happening here. It will at times look very lacking in momentum, and people will say it is petering out. Then, very suddenly, he'll be gone.
    I don't agree, I doubt there will be a VONC any time soon.

    It’s time to look at my maxim on management decision making, based on 20 years of project management experience. “Management will always decide not to make a decision if that remains an option, especially if the point by which a decision should have been made has already passed”. For management read Tory MPs. So the real question is, when does not making a decision cease to be an option? I suggest after the May local elections next year. That would leave 12-18 months for a successor to turn things round. Until then there is always an excuse to wait, after that Johnson stays.

    For 54 letters to call for him to go before then would require something even worse to happen than heretofore (and it’s hard to see what that could be if Johnson’s performance isn’t already deemed unacceptable), or one of the potential candidates to succeed him to break ranks and force the issue (also unlikely).
    The 'worse' is happening every day and his interview in Kiev was a car crash, not for what he said but the caustic questions from journalists, and this is going to deteriorate every day including tomorrow's pmqs, especially if he uses Savile v Starmer

    Indeed, I now think he will be very fortunate to survive the week
    He will indeed be very fortunate. I know you have already decided, but my point is that if as a Tory MP you haven't already made your mind up, I can't see anything dramatic enough happening to override your instinct (like my management) to 'wait and see'. The constant drip, drip, drip hasn't been enough so far, why will that change for more than a handful of MPs?
    PMQs tomorrow, Humble Address, more embarrassing pressers, bad polls, couplemore MPs going public. That's how drip drip drips work.

    PMQs = Rayner v Raab do we think?
    That will be interesting.

    In presentational politics, big picture generally beats master of the detail (behind the scenes, often the opposite). Which is why Starmer often struggles against the clown. But Rayner is big picture and Raab is the lawyer; Rayner should be short odds on coming out ahead.
    I expect it to be Boris v Starmer and pure theatre

    Boris is home this evening
    Via the duty free
    Cakes.

    Watching him in Kiev his weight seems to have ballooned and he looks as scruffy as ever
  • TresTres Posts: 2,695

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Oooft - brutal Qs from the BBC to Boris Johnson in Ukraine!

    Asked if he has done enough to save his premiership after 'partygate' and how foreign leaders can take British diplomacy seriously as he prioritised talking to MPs over Putin...

    https://twitter.com/LizzyBuchan/status/1488568358962401289

    Totally irresponsible question from the BBC.

    Ask at home maybe but not in Ukraine when Ukraine is desperately welcoming the support from the UK PM against Putin. All the BBC have done by that question is strengthen Putin
    You just cannot see how brutal this is and entirely self inflicted damage that is terminal for his premiership

    The sooner you join us seeking a new leader the more content you will be

    You cannot defend the indefensible
    He can and he will.

    Mr Ed denies a coup despite the evidence of his eyes and ears
    HYUFD denies the liar has brought the office into disrepute despite the evidence of his eyes and ears.

    I think its like self-hypnotism. People with a brain and with basic decency know what is right and what is wrong. I expect both are decent people, and defend indecency. It must be the same as the Corbyn cultists - they are so deep into the Kali Ma that they can't help support what moral decent principled people find appalling.
    Nah, you're being too kind.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859

    Talking of Bozzatron’s diversionary tactics, did we ever hear any more about Rach, Ange and Bridget properly largin’ it on the old Jack and Jills?

    Blimey. We all watched Govey raving his tits off in Aberdeen but he must have been *seriously* tripping to think he is called Rach or Ange or Bridget.
    Amid the furore around the clown’s misjudged Saville accusation, we forget that during the same speech he also made a bizarre accusation yesterday that someone on the Labour front bench was familiar with drugs?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,802

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Charles Walker is a senior CRG member and very widely respected in the party. It feels significant that he's asking the PM to resign.

    My bet Steve Baker next Cons leader looking a bit healthier.
    How many letters can Walker convene? I might have to revise my oft-stated view if the CRG mobilises against him (assuming they have the necessary numbers).
    Quite a few I think. Team Boris seem to have realised the game will be up if there's a vote which is why so much political (and national reputational) capital is being spent to prevent one.
  • PJHPJH Posts: 645
    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Heathener said:

    Late to the party so just saw the Savanta ComRes.

    11% ahead with Labour on 44%. Looking good.



    Oh dear, does that mean HYUFD has to call for Johnson's resignation?
    One can always hope

    Each conservative announcing they have submitted their letter to the 1922 gives me a lift and just hope it becomes an avalanche
    It's more like a trickle at the moment however.
    It is the direction of travel and I expect more after tomorrow's pmqs
    Your avalanche analogy is right.

    I forget who it was who said, about bankruptcy, that it "happens very gradually, then very suddenly".

    My reading is that is what is happening here. It will at times look very lacking in momentum, and people will say it is petering out. Then, very suddenly, he'll be gone.
    That's quite possible - but when? Thinking of similar physical processes - such as ice sheet collapse - it's essentially impossible to predict when the gradual thinning and melting will suddenly transition into breaking free and drifting off into the ocean.
    End of week???
    We've been 3 days from a VONC for weeks now.
    There are jellyfish washed up on the beach that have more backbone than this lot.
    There are amoebas ...
    Which is the point I'm making - Tory MPs already know that we have an incompetent liar with no principles as PM. More evidence to that effect won't make any difference. What may make a difference is self-preservation, in the face of incontrovertible evidence that they will lose the next election. At the moment (if you want to make excuses to yourself) you will think "governments are always unpopular mid term, it's a long time until the next election, Boris is having a bad patch and will get through it", etc, and defer for another week (and another...). After a drubbing in May 2023 it won't be possible to think such things, as defeat will by then loom large enough to make action imperative.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    IanB2 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    PJH said:

    PJH said:

    Heathener said:

    Late to the party so just saw the Savanta ComRes.

    11% ahead with Labour on 44%. Looking good.



    Oh dear, does that mean HYUFD has to call for Johnson's resignation?
    One can always hope

    Each conservative announcing they have submitted their letter to the 1922 gives me a lift and just hope it becomes an avalanche
    It's more like a trickle at the moment however.
    It is the direction of travel and I expect more after tomorrow's pmqs
    Your avalanche analogy is right.

    I forget who it was who said, about bankruptcy, that it "happens very gradually, then very suddenly".

    My reading is that is what is happening here. It will at times look very lacking in momentum, and people will say it is petering out. Then, very suddenly, he'll be gone.
    I don't agree, I doubt there will be a VONC any time soon.

    It’s time to look at my maxim on management decision making, based on 20 years of project management experience. “Management will always decide not to make a decision if that remains an option, especially if the point by which a decision should have been made has already passed”. For management read Tory MPs. So the real question is, when does not making a decision cease to be an option? I suggest after the May local elections next year. That would leave 12-18 months for a successor to turn things round. Until then there is always an excuse to wait, after that Johnson stays.

    For 54 letters to call for him to go before then would require something even worse to happen than heretofore (and it’s hard to see what that could be if Johnson’s performance isn’t already deemed unacceptable), or one of the potential candidates to succeed him to break ranks and force the issue (also unlikely).
    The 'worse' is happening every day and his interview in Kiev was a car crash, not for what he said but the caustic questions from journalists, and this is going to deteriorate every day including tomorrow's pmqs, especially if he uses Savile v Starmer

    Indeed, I now think he will be very fortunate to survive the week
    He will indeed be very fortunate. I know you have already decided, but my point is that if as a Tory MP you haven't already made your mind up, I can't see anything dramatic enough happening to override your instinct (like my management) to 'wait and see'. The constant drip, drip, drip hasn't been enough so far, why will that change for more than a handful of MPs?
    PMQs tomorrow, Humble Address, more embarrassing pressers, bad polls, couplemore MPs going public. That's how drip drip drips work.

    PMQs = Rayner v Raab do we think?
    That will be interesting.

    In presentational politics, big picture generally beats master of the detail (behind the scenes, often the opposite). Which is why Starmer often struggles against the clown. But Rayner is big picture and Raab is the lawyer; Rayner should be short odds on coming out ahead.
    I expect it to be Boris v Starmer and pure theatre

    Boris is home this evening
    Dull. Repeat of yday
    His mps will be the focus

    Will someone do something dramatic
  • Farooq said:

    IanB2 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    PJH said:

    PJH said:

    Heathener said:

    Late to the party so just saw the Savanta ComRes.

    11% ahead with Labour on 44%. Looking good.



    Oh dear, does that mean HYUFD has to call for Johnson's resignation?
    One can always hope

    Each conservative announcing they have submitted their letter to the 1922 gives me a lift and just hope it becomes an avalanche
    It's more like a trickle at the moment however.
    It is the direction of travel and I expect more after tomorrow's pmqs
    Your avalanche analogy is right.

    I forget who it was who said, about bankruptcy, that it "happens very gradually, then very suddenly".

    My reading is that is what is happening here. It will at times look very lacking in momentum, and people will say it is petering out. Then, very suddenly, he'll be gone.
    I don't agree, I doubt there will be a VONC any time soon.

    It’s time to look at my maxim on management decision making, based on 20 years of project management experience. “Management will always decide not to make a decision if that remains an option, especially if the point by which a decision should have been made has already passed”. For management read Tory MPs. So the real question is, when does not making a decision cease to be an option? I suggest after the May local elections next year. That would leave 12-18 months for a successor to turn things round. Until then there is always an excuse to wait, after that Johnson stays.

    For 54 letters to call for him to go before then would require something even worse to happen than heretofore (and it’s hard to see what that could be if Johnson’s performance isn’t already deemed unacceptable), or one of the potential candidates to succeed him to break ranks and force the issue (also unlikely).
    The 'worse' is happening every day and his interview in Kiev was a car crash, not for what he said but the caustic questions from journalists, and this is going to deteriorate every day including tomorrow's pmqs, especially if he uses Savile v Starmer

    Indeed, I now think he will be very fortunate to survive the week
    He will indeed be very fortunate. I know you have already decided, but my point is that if as a Tory MP you haven't already made your mind up, I can't see anything dramatic enough happening to override your instinct (like my management) to 'wait and see'. The constant drip, drip, drip hasn't been enough so far, why will that change for more than a handful of MPs?
    PMQs tomorrow, Humble Address, more embarrassing pressers, bad polls, couplemore MPs going public. That's how drip drip drips work.

    PMQs = Rayner v Raab do we think?
    That will be interesting.

    In presentational politics, big picture generally beats master of the detail (behind the scenes, often the opposite). Which is why Starmer often struggles against the clown. But Rayner is big picture and Raab is the lawyer; Rayner should be short odds on coming out ahead.
    I expect it to be Boris v Starmer and pure theatre

    Boris is home this evening
    Via the duty free
    Cakes.

    Watching him in Kiev his weight seems to have ballooned and he looks as scruffy as ever
    Ambushed by Chicken Kiev?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    I am no fan of mid term polls but I wonder if that ComRes survey might have steeled a few knives. It really went against the narrative that Bozza, HY and Owls were trying to push that the panic was over and the public were happy to move on.
  • TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    The Speaker needs to haul Boris into Parliament and make him apologise to Keir Starmer over the Jimmy Savile claim. It's such an outrageous claim with absolutely zero evidence (in fact Starmer was someone who helped uncover Savile's horrific legacy of rape and abuse). These kinds of claims need to be corrected and the Speaker should ask Boris to present evidence for his claim or make a retraction and apology.

    Of all the stupid things Boris said yesterday in the house, the claim about Starmer was the worst he's come out with in a very long time. It's a complete falsehood, a known complete falsehood and the PM has abused parliamentary privilege to slander Keir Starmer.

    I make no argument either way about Boris’ pretty OTT Savile remarks. Nonetheless Team Boris have done their research. This is a meme floating around, and it hovers over Starmer



    “Whether it’s fake news or not, Keir Starmer is actually remembered for the one that let Jimmy Savile get away. He was in charge of the CPS at the time. And I still don’t know who he is. He’s not made that impression.”

    From an October 2021 focus group
    Sounds like you are defending 'Team Boris', as you so obsequiously put it.

    And to think I thought you'd discovered a moral backbone these days? Perhaps I was misinformed?

    For the avoidance of doubt, i will say, for the 90th time, I think Boris should resign, He’s lied too much and too clearly, on a much too resonant subject - lockdown and the breaking thereof - it is immoral for him to stay where he is.

    I say this with sadness because ( yes yes, cue much derision) he had greatness in him, from my perspective. But he just can’t deliver anything now

    Now, with that established, we can argue the other points. Politically can he survive? Yes, possibly. Also he could even win in 2024, he has the kind of character than can bounce back.

    And the motives of some of his enemies - who would have destroyed democracy with a “people’s vote” (ie cancel the first vote) are pukeworthy. Starmer is one such. Happy to cancel democracy. C*nt
    Do you view the five-yearly general elections as cancelling democracy.
    Stop being ridiculous. And boring
    If you ask a different set of people to vote again about a political question that one set of people has voted on, then there is an argument for saying it is an affront to democracy. But a second vote, hugely impractical as it would have been, would have been perfectly democratic because you would have been asking the same people and they would have been allowed to change their minds or not change their minds.

    dipshit
    “We’re going to give you a once in a lifetime vote on the most important political subject of our time and whatever you vote YOUR vote will be RESPECTED and we will obey it, and there will be no second EU vote, no rethink, nothing like that, this is IT, the will of the British people will be RESPECTED, once and for all and I solemnly promise you this, it is IN or OUT and I am your prime minister”.. and… “What’s more to prove this is true we will send a leaflet to every single British household swearing this is the case, this is it, this is the vote”

    Cue the largest EVER vote in the history of British democracy. The largest EVER. 17.4 MILLION votes in favour of LEAVE

    I guess these silly stupid thick racist voters didn’t read the bits in invisible ink at the end saying “oh this is all shit you working class idiots if you vote Leave we will just fanny around for three years then have an election then reverse what you said you racist proles”

    I’m sorry, there’s no getting round this. Anyone who wanted a 2nd vote, without enacting the first, ie who wanted to “cancel” or “finesse” democracy” is a Trumpite Capitol-storming Fuck-sucker of the first water, just with a posher accent


    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/what-the-capitol-riots-and-the-plot-to-stop-brexit-have-in-common
    The problem I have with that analysis is that if Remain had won 52/48, should UKIP have said 'OK lads, the people have spoken and we're in the EU now.' Should they have moved to support UK membership of the EU out of respect for the referendum?

    Or should they have said, 'our voters want us out, and we will fight for a second vote - which we're going to call a peoples' vote - and it's one that we're going to win'?

    They'd have said the latter, like the SNP. But no serious country can allow itself to be put at risk from continuous constitutional uncertainty. So, like the SNP, they should rightly be told to take a running jump.
    Really? If UKIP had won the 2017 General Election, they should have been prevented from enacting a second referendum?

    I don't agree.
    If they'd won a General Election on that manifesto then fair enough.

    The problem in 2017-19 is that the parties seeking to have a second referendum lost the 2017 election handsomely. Less than 10% of MPs elected in 2017 were done so on a pledge of holding a second referendum.

    Grieve, Starmer, Woolaston and the rest who tried to subvert democracy (not the Lib Dems to be fair) were all elected on a platform of saying the 2016 referendum was decisive and that Brexit would happen. Then they worked night and day to prevent it from happening - and to have a second referendum which went against both 2016 and 2017 commitments.
    They worked day and night because the British public had not given any party an unambiguous mandate to implement the referendum result. It was a hung parliament and Dominic Grieve et al was returned by his constituents who I'm pretty sure knew his views on the subject.
    I'm not sure they did considering in his personal election material in 2017 he said that Brexit would happen. He then voted down every single Brexit option, something not even Ken Clarke did.

    His constituents then chose not to return him in 2019 once he outed himself as willing to subvert democracy.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    Most PMs benefit from being seen as the statesman(woman) bestriding the world stage.

    Johnson’s problem is that we see him on TV pretending to do the same, and simply feel ashamed that we have sent such a tit to represent us abroad.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Oooft - brutal Qs from the BBC to Boris Johnson in Ukraine!

    Asked if he has done enough to save his premiership after 'partygate' and how foreign leaders can take British diplomacy seriously as he prioritised talking to MPs over Putin...

    https://twitter.com/LizzyBuchan/status/1488568358962401289

    Totally irresponsible question from the BBC.

    Ask at home maybe but not in Ukraine when Ukraine is desperately welcoming the support from the UK PM against Putin. All the BBC have done by that question is strengthen Putin
    Well simply stop supporting the one man responsible for all this nonsense in the first place. If he could either apologise or even just tell the truth occasionally it would not be an issue.

    Your support for him weakens the West militarily. The West is weakened from the divisive autocratic nationalism you love and strengthened by the liberal democracy you seek to destroy.
    Utter rubbish.

    The Ukrainian Parliament today saw Ukrainian MPs wave the Nato, UK, US, Turkish, Canadian, Danish and Polish flags as all have given support against Putin. Notably absent were the EU, German and French flags as none of them have given any real support to Ukraine.

    https://twitter.com/KenWeinstein/status/1488559378261233672?s=20&t=F5MeBLxuJfxsD7jkw6tCHQ

    It is now diehard Remainers like you who are Putin's best friends by default as you desperately try and undermine Boris
    Diehard Remainer SeanT is a big Putin fan is he not?
    Woger, at the height of the er.... discussion about AUKUS stuff tried on, like a coat, the idea that Putin was a proper statesman.

    Putin fandom is a strange beast - appealing to a weird collection of people....
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,759

    Farooq said:

    IanB2 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    PJH said:

    PJH said:

    Heathener said:

    Late to the party so just saw the Savanta ComRes.

    11% ahead with Labour on 44%. Looking good.



    Oh dear, does that mean HYUFD has to call for Johnson's resignation?
    One can always hope

    Each conservative announcing they have submitted their letter to the 1922 gives me a lift and just hope it becomes an avalanche
    It's more like a trickle at the moment however.
    It is the direction of travel and I expect more after tomorrow's pmqs
    Your avalanche analogy is right.

    I forget who it was who said, about bankruptcy, that it "happens very gradually, then very suddenly".

    My reading is that is what is happening here. It will at times look very lacking in momentum, and people will say it is petering out. Then, very suddenly, he'll be gone.
    I don't agree, I doubt there will be a VONC any time soon.

    It’s time to look at my maxim on management decision making, based on 20 years of project management experience. “Management will always decide not to make a decision if that remains an option, especially if the point by which a decision should have been made has already passed”. For management read Tory MPs. So the real question is, when does not making a decision cease to be an option? I suggest after the May local elections next year. That would leave 12-18 months for a successor to turn things round. Until then there is always an excuse to wait, after that Johnson stays.

    For 54 letters to call for him to go before then would require something even worse to happen than heretofore (and it’s hard to see what that could be if Johnson’s performance isn’t already deemed unacceptable), or one of the potential candidates to succeed him to break ranks and force the issue (also unlikely).
    The 'worse' is happening every day and his interview in Kiev was a car crash, not for what he said but the caustic questions from journalists, and this is going to deteriorate every day including tomorrow's pmqs, especially if he uses Savile v Starmer

    Indeed, I now think he will be very fortunate to survive the week
    He will indeed be very fortunate. I know you have already decided, but my point is that if as a Tory MP you haven't already made your mind up, I can't see anything dramatic enough happening to override your instinct (like my management) to 'wait and see'. The constant drip, drip, drip hasn't been enough so far, why will that change for more than a handful of MPs?
    PMQs tomorrow, Humble Address, more embarrassing pressers, bad polls, couplemore MPs going public. That's how drip drip drips work.

    PMQs = Rayner v Raab do we think?
    That will be interesting.

    In presentational politics, big picture generally beats master of the detail (behind the scenes, often the opposite). Which is why Starmer often struggles against the clown. But Rayner is big picture and Raab is the lawyer; Rayner should be short odds on coming out ahead.
    I expect it to be Boris v Starmer and pure theatre

    Boris is home this evening
    Via the duty free
    Cakes.

    Watching him in Kiev his weight seems to have ballooned and he looks as scruffy as ever
    Ambushed by Chicken Kiev?
    Isn't it now Kyiv, but pronounced Kiev?
  • kle4 said:

    kjh said:

    MrEd said:

    kjh said:

    MrEd said:

    kjh said:

    MrEd said:

    Farooq said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    The Speaker needs to haul Boris into Parliament and make him apologise to Keir Starmer over the Jimmy Savile claim. It's such an outrageous claim with absolutely zero evidence (in fact Starmer was someone who helped uncover Savile's horrific legacy of rape and abuse). These kinds of claims need to be corrected and the Speaker should ask Boris to present evidence for his claim or make a retraction and apology.

    Of all the stupid things Boris said yesterday in the house, the claim about Starmer was the worst he's come out with in a very long time. It's a complete falsehood, a known complete falsehood and the PM has abused parliamentary privilege to slander Keir Starmer.

    I make no argument either way about Boris’ pretty OTT Savile remarks. Nonetheless Team Boris have done their research. This is a meme floating around, and it hovers over Starmer



    “Whether it’s fake news or not, Keir Starmer is actually remembered for the one that let Jimmy Savile get away. He was in charge of the CPS at the time. And I still don’t know who he is. He’s not made that impression.”

    From an October 2021 focus group
    Sounds like you are defending 'Team Boris', as you so obsequiously put it.

    And to think I thought you'd discovered a moral backbone these days? Perhaps I was misinformed?

    For the avoidance of doubt, i will say, for the 90th time, I think Boris should resign, He’s lied too much and too clearly, on a much too resonant subject - lockdown and the breaking thereof - it is immoral for him to stay where he is.

    I say this with sadness because ( yes yes, cue much derision) he had greatness in him, from my perspective. But he just can’t deliver anything now

    Now, with that established, we can argue the other points. Politically can he survive? Yes, possibly. Also he could even win in 2024, he has the kind of character than can bounce back.

    And the motives of some of his enemies - who would have destroyed democracy with a “people’s vote” (ie cancel the first vote) are pukeworthy. Starmer is one such. Happy to cancel democracy. C*nt
    Do you view the five-yearly general elections as cancelling democracy.
    Stop being ridiculous. And boring
    If you ask a different set of people to vote again about a political question that one set of people has voted on, then there is an argument for saying it is an affront to democracy. But a second vote, hugely impractical as it would have been, would have been perfectly democratic because you would have been asking the same people and they would have been allowed to change their minds or not change their minds.

    dipshit
    “We’re going to give you a once in a lifetime vote on the most important political subject of our time and whatever you vote YOUR vote will be RESPECTED and we will obey it, and there will be no second EU vote, no rethink, nothing like that, this is IT, the will of the British people will be RESPECTED, once and for all and I solemnly promise you this, it is IN or OUT and I am your prime minister”.. and… “What’s more to prove this is true we will send a leaflet to every single British household swearing this is the case, this is it, this is the vote”

    Cue the largest EVER vote in the history of British democracy. The largest EVER. 17.4 MILLION votes in favour of LEAVE

    I guess these silly stupid thick racist voters didn’t read the bits in invisible ink at the end saying “oh this is all shit you working class idiots if you vote Leave we will just fanny around for three years then have an election then reverse what you said you racist proles”

    I’m sorry, there’s no getting round this. Anyone who wanted a 2nd vote, without enacting the first, ie who wanted to “cancel” or “finesse” democracy” is a Trumpite Capitol-storming Fuck-sucker of the first water, just with a posher accent


    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/what-the-capitol-riots-and-the-plot-to-stop-brexit-have-in-common
    It is not apparent that you are100% sure how democracy works.

    No shame there but to boil it down it consists of asking "the people" questions and then they decide one way or another.
    David Cameron, speaking directly to the British people, in 2015



    “Ultimately it will be the judgment of the British people in the referendum... You will have to judge what is best for you and your family, for your children and grandchildren, for our country, for our future. It will be your decision whether to remain in the EU on the basis of the reforms we secure, or whether we leave. Your decision. Nobody else’s. Not politicians’. Not Parliament’s. Not lobby groups’. Not mine. Just you. You, the British people, will decide. At that moment, you will hold this country’s destiny in your hands. This is a huge decision for our country, perhaps the biggest we will make in our lifetimes. And it will be the final decision.'”

    '”So to those who suggest that a decision in the referendum to leave would merely produce another stronger renegotiation, and then a second referendum in which Britain would stay, I say: think again. The renegotiation is happening right now. And the referendum that follows will be a once in a generation choice. An in or out referendum. When the British people speak, their voice will be respected – not ignored. If we vote to leave, then we will leave. There will not be another renegotiation and another referendum.'”

    I guess you must have been a 2nd “people’s” voter, hence your squirming embarrassment. Fair enough
    It's moot now but there are a lot of people here who like to lecture each other about democracy. As I see it western democracy has its roots in Ancient Greek democracy, notably that of Athens. It is not out of the question to adopt precedent from Ancient Athens. In 427BC the Athenian Assembly, open to all male citizens as soon as they qualified for citizenship, voted to massacre all the Mytileneans. A warship was duly despatched. However, the Athenians saw within a day or two that they had made a mistake and decided to vote again. This time the vote went against the proposition. A fast ship was despatched to catch up with the first and made it in time to countermand the order.

    Now, I'm a lawyer, I deal with precedent, and I accept that the experiences of two and a half millennia ago may not be the most persuasive to modern voters. But if the people who invented our democratic tradition could change their minds before a popular vote was implemented, then so could we.

    As for the overblown "coup" claims - neither People's Vote nor Jan 6.2021 were attempted coups. A coup a sudden, violent, and illegal seizure of power from a government. In order to achieve that you need to take control of all branches of government and neither had the means or a plan to do that.
    I find it extremely dubious to claim that in order for there to be an (attempted) coup you need to (attempt to) take control of ALL branches of government. I see no reason why that should be the case. The presidency has some sovereign executive power, and it's arguably the most powerful individual position in the world.
    You might argue that attempting to take or remain in the job through violent and illegal means (these conditions were certainly met!) would be ineffective on its own (I would dispute that, but let's go with it), but that doesn't mean it's not an attempted coup. You might argue that the Houses could remove such a "president", but again, that doesn't mean they will.
    There is no point arguing with you on this because you will just shout and scream Trumpist but both Glenn Greenwald and Matt Talibi have written very good pieces about why the January 6th riots were not a coup by any stretch of the imagination (as well as the reasons why the Democrats are seeking to turn Jan 6th into some sort of Holy memorial).
    No of course it wasn't. The hangman's noose was just for fun as was the policeman who got a fire extinguisher shoved in his face and the lady shot dead by the police while trying to batter down the doors to the chamber and the vice president and elected officials rushed out by armed guards. And the ex president telling the crown to march on Capitol hill and pressuring the VP to not validate the result. Not a coup attempt at all. No what could we all be thinking? Just a friendly little picnic.
    Didn't say it was a picnic. Look at what @DougSeal said, that is my view as well. It was a riot and Trump massively outstepped things. But it was not a coup.

    Things don't have to be Black or White, they can be shades of grey.

    You are deluded. It was coup attempt clear and simple, admittedly many of the rioters were Trumps pawns, but that is obviously the case in many coups. Trump was trying to overturn the result and if not that stop it being declared.
    Funny, as I posted before, some of the best (and left-wing) commentators don't agree with your view. But I guess you know more than them:

    https://taibbi.substack.com/p/a-tale-of-two-authoritarians
    https://greenwald.substack.com/p/civil-liberties-are-being-trampled-8bf

    Maybe you are the deluded one - it might help if you could stop frothing every time you hear the word Trump mentioned. As I said to @Malmesbury, your side has become so wrapped up in hatred, you are even willing to publicly praise Dick Cheney, who truly was a threat to American democracy.

    I will even give you an extra bone - it looks like there was Russian collusion in the 2016 election. Only, looks like it was come from Hillary:

    https://www.realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2022/01/27/what_did_clinton_know_about_the_russiagate_smear_and_when_did_she_know_it_the_evidence_builds_813739.html#!

    d) If you can't tell that was attempted coup then you clearly are the deluded one. The crowd invaded the county's parliament, tried to stop a president being appointed, the elected representatives had to flee for their lives, people were killed and arms drawn and all encouraged by the person who wanted to take power and when he had the opportunity to stop it refused for sometime.
    There is a bit of an attempt to overlook all that for some reason. If people think a coup can only be when some chap in army greens takes over the TV stations to annouce the Committee for Restoration of Democracy through Killing People, sure, it is not a coup, but the violent storming of a legislature to prevent a legitimate procedure in the handover of power, at best tacitly encouraged by the losing side?

    That's a coup attempt.
    Of course. How much more evidence do we now need? On the day we saw speaker after speaker whip the crowd into a frenzy until Trump ordered them to march on the Capital. We saw them searching for the "traitor Pence".

    Later we found out the back story. Pence being asked by Trump to overturn the result. Pence checking out the idea with Dan Quayle to be told "no, no, NO". Trump calling state officials demanding they overturn the result. Fake elector certificates being created. And now the absurd plan to install Trump as House Speaker and then impeach / murder Biden and Harris.

    America is no longer a democracy. Its That Bad.
    That may be a premature judgement but things are definitely trending that way when a large proportion of the electorate seriously doubts the validity of the election result.
  • Omnium said:

    Farooq said:

    IanB2 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    PJH said:

    PJH said:

    Heathener said:

    Late to the party so just saw the Savanta ComRes.

    11% ahead with Labour on 44%. Looking good.



    Oh dear, does that mean HYUFD has to call for Johnson's resignation?
    One can always hope

    Each conservative announcing they have submitted their letter to the 1922 gives me a lift and just hope it becomes an avalanche
    It's more like a trickle at the moment however.
    It is the direction of travel and I expect more after tomorrow's pmqs
    Your avalanche analogy is right.

    I forget who it was who said, about bankruptcy, that it "happens very gradually, then very suddenly".

    My reading is that is what is happening here. It will at times look very lacking in momentum, and people will say it is petering out. Then, very suddenly, he'll be gone.
    I don't agree, I doubt there will be a VONC any time soon.

    It’s time to look at my maxim on management decision making, based on 20 years of project management experience. “Management will always decide not to make a decision if that remains an option, especially if the point by which a decision should have been made has already passed”. For management read Tory MPs. So the real question is, when does not making a decision cease to be an option? I suggest after the May local elections next year. That would leave 12-18 months for a successor to turn things round. Until then there is always an excuse to wait, after that Johnson stays.

    For 54 letters to call for him to go before then would require something even worse to happen than heretofore (and it’s hard to see what that could be if Johnson’s performance isn’t already deemed unacceptable), or one of the potential candidates to succeed him to break ranks and force the issue (also unlikely).
    The 'worse' is happening every day and his interview in Kiev was a car crash, not for what he said but the caustic questions from journalists, and this is going to deteriorate every day including tomorrow's pmqs, especially if he uses Savile v Starmer

    Indeed, I now think he will be very fortunate to survive the week
    He will indeed be very fortunate. I know you have already decided, but my point is that if as a Tory MP you haven't already made your mind up, I can't see anything dramatic enough happening to override your instinct (like my management) to 'wait and see'. The constant drip, drip, drip hasn't been enough so far, why will that change for more than a handful of MPs?
    PMQs tomorrow, Humble Address, more embarrassing pressers, bad polls, couplemore MPs going public. That's how drip drip drips work.

    PMQs = Rayner v Raab do we think?
    That will be interesting.

    In presentational politics, big picture generally beats master of the detail (behind the scenes, often the opposite). Which is why Starmer often struggles against the clown. But Rayner is big picture and Raab is the lawyer; Rayner should be short odds on coming out ahead.
    I expect it to be Boris v Starmer and pure theatre

    Boris is home this evening
    Via the duty free
    Cakes.

    Watching him in Kiev his weight seems to have ballooned and he looks as scruffy as ever
    Ambushed by Chicken Kiev?
    Isn't it now Kyiv, but pronounced Kiev?
    Ukrainians would pronounce it "Kyiv"!

    Cf. Kharkiv versus Kharkov, Lviv versus Lvov.

  • James Oh Brien
    @mrjamesob
    The Savile lie is the most Trumpish yet, I think. Every sentient Tory MP knows he's lying but they can't call it out without calling Johnson a liar & they can't do that without unhitching themselves from him. The ones who find the courage to do the right thing should be thanked.

    https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/1488570614797508609
  • IanB2 said:

    Talking of Bozzatron’s diversionary tactics, did we ever hear any more about Rach, Ange and Bridget properly largin’ it on the old Jack and Jills?

    Blimey. We all watched Govey raving his tits off in Aberdeen but he must have been *seriously* tripping to think he is called Rach or Ange or Bridget.
    Amid the furore around the clown’s misjudged Saville accusation, we forget that during the same speech he also made a bizarre accusation yesterday that someone on the Labour front bench was familiar with drugs?
    That seems to have been overshadowed by Savile and goodness only knows what he may say tomorrow

    Watching hiding behind the settee as my son used to do with Dr Who
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    edited February 2022
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Oooft - brutal Qs from the BBC to Boris Johnson in Ukraine!

    Asked if he has done enough to save his premiership after 'partygate' and how foreign leaders can take British diplomacy seriously as he prioritised talking to MPs over Putin...

    https://twitter.com/LizzyBuchan/status/1488568358962401289

    Totally irresponsible question from the BBC.

    Ask at home maybe but not in Ukraine when Ukraine is desperately welcoming the support from the UK PM against Putin. All the BBC have done by that question is strengthen Putin
    Well simply stop supporting the one man responsible for all this nonsense in the first place. If he could either apologise or even just tell the truth occasionally it would not be an issue.

    Your support for him weakens the West militarily. The West is weakened from the divisive autocratic nationalism you love and strengthened by the liberal democracy you seek to destroy.
    Utter rubbish.

    The Ukrainian Parliament today saw Ukrainian MPs wave the Nato, UK, US, Turkish, Canadian, Danish and Polish flags as all have given support against Putin. Notably absent were the EU, German and French flags as none of them have given any real support to Ukraine.

    https://twitter.com/KenWeinstein/status/1488559378261233672?s=20&t=F5MeBLxuJfxsD7jkw6tCHQ

    It is now diehard Remainers like you who are Putin's best friends by default as you desperately try and undermine Boris
    Diehard Remainer SeanT is a big Putin fan is he not?
    No, he just is equally not a big fan of woke.

    On no definition is he a diehard Remainer either
    As I remember, Sean was a remainer when he woke up on referendum day, and was still a remainer later that night when it became clear that Leave was about to win and he distressed about the ruin about to be inflicted upon our benighted country.

    The shame was that he became a leaver very briefly, during the few minutes he spent inside the polling station.
  • TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    The Speaker needs to haul Boris into Parliament and make him apologise to Keir Starmer over the Jimmy Savile claim. It's such an outrageous claim with absolutely zero evidence (in fact Starmer was someone who helped uncover Savile's horrific legacy of rape and abuse). These kinds of claims need to be corrected and the Speaker should ask Boris to present evidence for his claim or make a retraction and apology.

    Of all the stupid things Boris said yesterday in the house, the claim about Starmer was the worst he's come out with in a very long time. It's a complete falsehood, a known complete falsehood and the PM has abused parliamentary privilege to slander Keir Starmer.

    I make no argument either way about Boris’ pretty OTT Savile remarks. Nonetheless Team Boris have done their research. This is a meme floating around, and it hovers over Starmer



    “Whether it’s fake news or not, Keir Starmer is actually remembered for the one that let Jimmy Savile get away. He was in charge of the CPS at the time. And I still don’t know who he is. He’s not made that impression.”

    From an October 2021 focus group
    Sounds like you are defending 'Team Boris', as you so obsequiously put it.

    And to think I thought you'd discovered a moral backbone these days? Perhaps I was misinformed?

    For the avoidance of doubt, i will say, for the 90th time, I think Boris should resign, He’s lied too much and too clearly, on a much too resonant subject - lockdown and the breaking thereof - it is immoral for him to stay where he is.

    I say this with sadness because ( yes yes, cue much derision) he had greatness in him, from my perspective. But he just can’t deliver anything now

    Now, with that established, we can argue the other points. Politically can he survive? Yes, possibly. Also he could even win in 2024, he has the kind of character than can bounce back.

    And the motives of some of his enemies - who would have destroyed democracy with a “people’s vote” (ie cancel the first vote) are pukeworthy. Starmer is one such. Happy to cancel democracy. C*nt
    Do you view the five-yearly general elections as cancelling democracy.
    Stop being ridiculous. And boring
    If you ask a different set of people to vote again about a political question that one set of people has voted on, then there is an argument for saying it is an affront to democracy. But a second vote, hugely impractical as it would have been, would have been perfectly democratic because you would have been asking the same people and they would have been allowed to change their minds or not change their minds.

    dipshit
    “We’re going to give you a once in a lifetime vote on the most important political subject of our time and whatever you vote YOUR vote will be RESPECTED and we will obey it, and there will be no second EU vote, no rethink, nothing like that, this is IT, the will of the British people will be RESPECTED, once and for all and I solemnly promise you this, it is IN or OUT and I am your prime minister”.. and… “What’s more to prove this is true we will send a leaflet to every single British household swearing this is the case, this is it, this is the vote”

    Cue the largest EVER vote in the history of British democracy. The largest EVER. 17.4 MILLION votes in favour of LEAVE

    I guess these silly stupid thick racist voters didn’t read the bits in invisible ink at the end saying “oh this is all shit you working class idiots if you vote Leave we will just fanny around for three years then have an election then reverse what you said you racist proles”

    I’m sorry, there’s no getting round this. Anyone who wanted a 2nd vote, without enacting the first, ie who wanted to “cancel” or “finesse” democracy” is a Trumpite Capitol-storming Fuck-sucker of the first water, just with a posher accent


    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/what-the-capitol-riots-and-the-plot-to-stop-brexit-have-in-common
    The problem I have with that analysis is that if Remain had won 52/48, should UKIP have said 'OK lads, the people have spoken and we're in the EU now.' Should they have moved to support UK membership of the EU out of respect for the referendum?

    Or should they have said, 'our voters want us out, and we will fight for a second vote - which we're going to call a peoples' vote - and it's one that we're going to win'?

    They'd have said the latter, like the SNP. But no serious country can allow itself to be put at risk from continuous constitutional uncertainty. So, like the SNP, they should rightly be told to take a running jump.
    Really? If UKIP had won the 2017 General Election, they should have been prevented from enacting a second referendum?

    I don't agree.
    If they'd won a General Election on that manifesto then fair enough.

    The problem in 2017-19 is that the parties seeking to have a second referendum lost the 2017 election handsomely. Less than 10% of MPs elected in 2017 were done so on a pledge of holding a second referendum.

    Grieve, Starmer, Woolaston and the rest who tried to subvert democracy (not the Lib Dems to be fair) were all elected on a platform of saying the 2016 referendum was decisive and that Brexit would happen. Then they worked night and day to prevent it from happening - and to have a second referendum which went against both 2016 and 2017 commitments.
    They worked day and night because the British public had not given any party an unambiguous mandate to implement the referendum result. It was a hung parliament and Dominic Grieve et al was returned by his constituents who I'm pretty sure knew his views on the subject.
    I'm not sure they did considering in his personal election material in 2017 he said that Brexit would happen. He then voted down every single Brexit option, something not even Ken Clarke did.

    His constituents then chose not to return him in 2019 once he outed himself as willing to subvert democracy.
    You and Seanie are silly on this one. The 2017 parliament was not bound by the 2015 one. A basic principle of our system of parliamentary sovereignty.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    kle4 said:

    kjh said:

    MrEd said:

    kjh said:

    MrEd said:

    kjh said:

    MrEd said:

    Farooq said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    The Speaker needs to haul Boris into Parliament and make him apologise to Keir Starmer over the Jimmy Savile claim. It's such an outrageous claim with absolutely zero evidence (in fact Starmer was someone who helped uncover Savile's horrific legacy of rape and abuse). These kinds of claims need to be corrected and the Speaker should ask Boris to present evidence for his claim or make a retraction and apology.

    Of all the stupid things Boris said yesterday in the house, the claim about Starmer was the worst he's come out with in a very long time. It's a complete falsehood, a known complete falsehood and the PM has abused parliamentary privilege to slander Keir Starmer.

    I make no argument either way about Boris’ pretty OTT Savile remarks. Nonetheless Team Boris have done their research. This is a meme floating around, and it hovers over Starmer



    “Whether it’s fake news or not, Keir Starmer is actually remembered for the one that let Jimmy Savile get away. He was in charge of the CPS at the time. And I still don’t know who he is. He’s not made that impression.”

    From an October 2021 focus group
    Sounds like you are defending 'Team Boris', as you so obsequiously put it.

    And to think I thought you'd discovered a moral backbone these days? Perhaps I was misinformed?

    For the avoidance of doubt, i will say, for the 90th time, I think Boris should resign, He’s lied too much and too clearly, on a much too resonant subject - lockdown and the breaking thereof - it is immoral for him to stay where he is.

    I say this with sadness because ( yes yes, cue much derision) he had greatness in him, from my perspective. But he just can’t deliver anything now

    Now, with that established, we can argue the other points. Politically can he survive? Yes, possibly. Also he could even win in 2024, he has the kind of character than can bounce back.

    And the motives of some of his enemies - who would have destroyed democracy with a “people’s vote” (ie cancel the first vote) are pukeworthy. Starmer is one such. Happy to cancel democracy. C*nt
    Do you view the five-yearly general elections as cancelling democracy.
    Stop being ridiculous. And boring
    If you ask a different set of people to vote again about a political question that one set of people has voted on, then there is an argument for saying it is an affront to democracy. But a second vote, hugely impractical as it would have been, would have been perfectly democratic because you would have been asking the same people and they would have been allowed to change their minds or not change their minds.

    dipshit
    “We’re going to give you a once in a lifetime vote on the most important political subject of our time and whatever you vote YOUR vote will be RESPECTED and we will obey it, and there will be no second EU vote, no rethink, nothing like that, this is IT, the will of the British people will be RESPECTED, once and for all and I solemnly promise you this, it is IN or OUT and I am your prime minister”.. and… “What’s more to prove this is true we will send a leaflet to every single British household swearing this is the case, this is it, this is the vote”

    Cue the largest EVER vote in the history of British democracy. The largest EVER. 17.4 MILLION votes in favour of LEAVE

    I guess these silly stupid thick racist voters didn’t read the bits in invisible ink at the end saying “oh this is all shit you working class idiots if you vote Leave we will just fanny around for three years then have an election then reverse what you said you racist proles”

    I’m sorry, there’s no getting round this. Anyone who wanted a 2nd vote, without enacting the first, ie who wanted to “cancel” or “finesse” democracy” is a Trumpite Capitol-storming Fuck-sucker of the first water, just with a posher accent


    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/what-the-capitol-riots-and-the-plot-to-stop-brexit-have-in-common
    It is not apparent that you are100% sure how democracy works.

    No shame there but to boil it down it consists of asking "the people" questions and then they decide one way or another.
    David Cameron, speaking directly to the British people, in 2015



    “Ultimately it will be the judgment of the British people in the referendum... You will have to judge what is best for you and your family, for your children and grandchildren, for our country, for our future. It will be your decision whether to remain in the EU on the basis of the reforms we secure, or whether we leave. Your decision. Nobody else’s. Not politicians’. Not Parliament’s. Not lobby groups’. Not mine. Just you. You, the British people, will decide. At that moment, you will hold this country’s destiny in your hands. This is a huge decision for our country, perhaps the biggest we will make in our lifetimes. And it will be the final decision.'”

    '”So to those who suggest that a decision in the referendum to leave would merely produce another stronger renegotiation, and then a second referendum in which Britain would stay, I say: think again. The renegotiation is happening right now. And the referendum that follows will be a once in a generation choice. An in or out referendum. When the British people speak, their voice will be respected – not ignored. If we vote to leave, then we will leave. There will not be another renegotiation and another referendum.'”

    I guess you must have been a 2nd “people’s” voter, hence your squirming embarrassment. Fair enough
    It's moot now but there are a lot of people here who like to lecture each other about democracy. As I see it western democracy has its roots in Ancient Greek democracy, notably that of Athens. It is not out of the question to adopt precedent from Ancient Athens. In 427BC the Athenian Assembly, open to all male citizens as soon as they qualified for citizenship, voted to massacre all the Mytileneans. A warship was duly despatched. However, the Athenians saw within a day or two that they had made a mistake and decided to vote again. This time the vote went against the proposition. A fast ship was despatched to catch up with the first and made it in time to countermand the order.

    Now, I'm a lawyer, I deal with precedent, and I accept that the experiences of two and a half millennia ago may not be the most persuasive to modern voters. But if the people who invented our democratic tradition could change their minds before a popular vote was implemented, then so could we.

    As for the overblown "coup" claims - neither People's Vote nor Jan 6.2021 were attempted coups. A coup a sudden, violent, and illegal seizure of power from a government. In order to achieve that you need to take control of all branches of government and neither had the means or a plan to do that.
    I find it extremely dubious to claim that in order for there to be an (attempted) coup you need to (attempt to) take control of ALL branches of government. I see no reason why that should be the case. The presidency has some sovereign executive power, and it's arguably the most powerful individual position in the world.
    You might argue that attempting to take or remain in the job through violent and illegal means (these conditions were certainly met!) would be ineffective on its own (I would dispute that, but let's go with it), but that doesn't mean it's not an attempted coup. You might argue that the Houses could remove such a "president", but again, that doesn't mean they will.
    There is no point arguing with you on this because you will just shout and scream Trumpist but both Glenn Greenwald and Matt Talibi have written very good pieces about why the January 6th riots were not a coup by any stretch of the imagination (as well as the reasons why the Democrats are seeking to turn Jan 6th into some sort of Holy memorial).
    No of course it wasn't. The hangman's noose was just for fun as was the policeman who got a fire extinguisher shoved in his face and the lady shot dead by the police while trying to batter down the doors to the chamber and the vice president and elected officials rushed out by armed guards. And the ex president telling the crown to march on Capitol hill and pressuring the VP to not validate the result. Not a coup attempt at all. No what could we all be thinking? Just a friendly little picnic.
    Didn't say it was a picnic. Look at what @DougSeal said, that is my view as well. It was a riot and Trump massively outstepped things. But it was not a coup.

    Things don't have to be Black or White, they can be shades of grey.

    You are deluded. It was coup attempt clear and simple, admittedly many of the rioters were Trumps pawns, but that is obviously the case in many coups. Trump was trying to overturn the result and if not that stop it being declared.
    Funny, as I posted before, some of the best (and left-wing) commentators don't agree with your view. But I guess you know more than them:

    https://taibbi.substack.com/p/a-tale-of-two-authoritarians
    https://greenwald.substack.com/p/civil-liberties-are-being-trampled-8bf

    Maybe you are the deluded one - it might help if you could stop frothing every time you hear the word Trump mentioned. As I said to @Malmesbury, your side has become so wrapped up in hatred, you are even willing to publicly praise Dick Cheney, who truly was a threat to American democracy.

    I will even give you an extra bone - it looks like there was Russian collusion in the 2016 election. Only, looks like it was come from Hillary:

    https://www.realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2022/01/27/what_did_clinton_know_about_the_russiagate_smear_and_when_did_she_know_it_the_evidence_builds_813739.html#!

    d) If you can't tell that was attempted coup then you clearly are the deluded one. The crowd invaded the county's parliament, tried to stop a president being appointed, the elected representatives had to flee for their lives, people were killed and arms drawn and all encouraged by the person who wanted to take power and when he had the opportunity to stop it refused for sometime.
    There is a bit of an attempt to overlook all that for some reason. If people think a coup can only be when some chap in army greens takes over the TV stations to annouce the Committee for Restoration of Democracy through Killing People, sure, it is not a coup, but the violent storming of a legislature to prevent a legitimate procedure in the handover of power, at best tacitly encouraged by the losing side?

    That's a coup attempt.
    On fire today kl. On fire.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,759

    Omnium said:

    Farooq said:

    IanB2 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    PJH said:

    PJH said:

    Heathener said:

    Late to the party so just saw the Savanta ComRes.

    11% ahead with Labour on 44%. Looking good.



    Oh dear, does that mean HYUFD has to call for Johnson's resignation?
    One can always hope

    Each conservative announcing they have submitted their letter to the 1922 gives me a lift and just hope it becomes an avalanche
    It's more like a trickle at the moment however.
    It is the direction of travel and I expect more after tomorrow's pmqs
    Your avalanche analogy is right.

    I forget who it was who said, about bankruptcy, that it "happens very gradually, then very suddenly".

    My reading is that is what is happening here. It will at times look very lacking in momentum, and people will say it is petering out. Then, very suddenly, he'll be gone.
    I don't agree, I doubt there will be a VONC any time soon.

    It’s time to look at my maxim on management decision making, based on 20 years of project management experience. “Management will always decide not to make a decision if that remains an option, especially if the point by which a decision should have been made has already passed”. For management read Tory MPs. So the real question is, when does not making a decision cease to be an option? I suggest after the May local elections next year. That would leave 12-18 months for a successor to turn things round. Until then there is always an excuse to wait, after that Johnson stays.

    For 54 letters to call for him to go before then would require something even worse to happen than heretofore (and it’s hard to see what that could be if Johnson’s performance isn’t already deemed unacceptable), or one of the potential candidates to succeed him to break ranks and force the issue (also unlikely).
    The 'worse' is happening every day and his interview in Kiev was a car crash, not for what he said but the caustic questions from journalists, and this is going to deteriorate every day including tomorrow's pmqs, especially if he uses Savile v Starmer

    Indeed, I now think he will be very fortunate to survive the week
    He will indeed be very fortunate. I know you have already decided, but my point is that if as a Tory MP you haven't already made your mind up, I can't see anything dramatic enough happening to override your instinct (like my management) to 'wait and see'. The constant drip, drip, drip hasn't been enough so far, why will that change for more than a handful of MPs?
    PMQs tomorrow, Humble Address, more embarrassing pressers, bad polls, couplemore MPs going public. That's how drip drip drips work.

    PMQs = Rayner v Raab do we think?
    That will be interesting.

    In presentational politics, big picture generally beats master of the detail (behind the scenes, often the opposite). Which is why Starmer often struggles against the clown. But Rayner is big picture and Raab is the lawyer; Rayner should be short odds on coming out ahead.
    I expect it to be Boris v Starmer and pure theatre

    Boris is home this evening
    Via the duty free
    Cakes.

    Watching him in Kiev his weight seems to have ballooned and he looks as scruffy as ever
    Ambushed by Chicken Kiev?
    Isn't it now Kyiv, but pronounced Kiev?
    Ukrainians would pronounce it "Kyiv"!

    Cf. Kharkiv versus Kharkov, Lviv versus Lvov.
    In recent years I've happened to come to know quite a few Ukranians. Nice people. Ukrainian people - but that's up to them and them only.
  • As Johnson gets more and more desperate to cling on, whatever the cost and whoever is hurt in the crossfire, we will increasingly find out whether the Conservative Party has gone GOP and is incapable of stopping this dangerous lunatic who causing incalculable damage to every institution he goes near.
  • IanB2 said:

    Most PMs benefit from being seen as the statesman(woman) bestriding the world stage.

    Johnson’s problem is that we see him on TV pretending to do the same, and simply feel ashamed that we have sent such a tit to represent us abroad.

    Russia and Ukraine stand on the brink of war. We are one of the great global powers who can stand resolutely as a great power to oh stop sniggering will you
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Oooft - brutal Qs from the BBC to Boris Johnson in Ukraine!

    Asked if he has done enough to save his premiership after 'partygate' and how foreign leaders can take British diplomacy seriously as he prioritised talking to MPs over Putin...

    https://twitter.com/LizzyBuchan/status/1488568358962401289

    Totally irresponsible question from the BBC.

    Ask at home maybe but not in Ukraine when Ukraine is desperately welcoming the support from the UK PM against Putin. All the BBC have done by that question is strengthen Putin
    Well simply stop supporting the one man responsible for all this nonsense in the first place. If he could either apologise or even just tell the truth occasionally it would not be an issue.

    Your support for him weakens the West militarily. The West is weakened from the divisive autocratic nationalism you love and strengthened by the liberal democracy you seek to destroy.
    Utter rubbish.

    The Ukrainian Parliament today saw Ukrainian MPs wave the Nato, UK, US, Turkish, Canadian, Danish and Polish flags as all have given support against Putin. Notably absent were the EU, German and French flags as none of them have given any real support to Ukraine.

    https://twitter.com/KenWeinstein/status/1488559378261233672?s=20&t=F5MeBLxuJfxsD7jkw6tCHQ

    It is now diehard Remainers like you who are Putin's best friends by default as you desperately try and undermine Boris
    Do you have any basic decency? Morality? Standards?

    Take a look in the mirror at yourself. You are defending *that*. Every day that you do so, ever more desperate you are to deflect and deny, the more pitiful it becomes.

    You can ignore my perspective because you have no interest in it or me - thats fine, I have zero interest in how people who I don't respect consider me either. But we now have long-standing Tory stalwarts calling it what it is. They have decency. You should try and find some before it is too late.
    He is supposed to be a Christian
  • TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    The Speaker needs to haul Boris into Parliament and make him apologise to Keir Starmer over the Jimmy Savile claim. It's such an outrageous claim with absolutely zero evidence (in fact Starmer was someone who helped uncover Savile's horrific legacy of rape and abuse). These kinds of claims need to be corrected and the Speaker should ask Boris to present evidence for his claim or make a retraction and apology.

    Of all the stupid things Boris said yesterday in the house, the claim about Starmer was the worst he's come out with in a very long time. It's a complete falsehood, a known complete falsehood and the PM has abused parliamentary privilege to slander Keir Starmer.

    I make no argument either way about Boris’ pretty OTT Savile remarks. Nonetheless Team Boris have done their research. This is a meme floating around, and it hovers over Starmer



    “Whether it’s fake news or not, Keir Starmer is actually remembered for the one that let Jimmy Savile get away. He was in charge of the CPS at the time. And I still don’t know who he is. He’s not made that impression.”

    From an October 2021 focus group
    Sounds like you are defending 'Team Boris', as you so obsequiously put it.

    And to think I thought you'd discovered a moral backbone these days? Perhaps I was misinformed?

    For the avoidance of doubt, i will say, for the 90th time, I think Boris should resign, He’s lied too much and too clearly, on a much too resonant subject - lockdown and the breaking thereof - it is immoral for him to stay where he is.

    I say this with sadness because ( yes yes, cue much derision) he had greatness in him, from my perspective. But he just can’t deliver anything now

    Now, with that established, we can argue the other points. Politically can he survive? Yes, possibly. Also he could even win in 2024, he has the kind of character than can bounce back.

    And the motives of some of his enemies - who would have destroyed democracy with a “people’s vote” (ie cancel the first vote) are pukeworthy. Starmer is one such. Happy to cancel democracy. C*nt
    Do you view the five-yearly general elections as cancelling democracy.
    Stop being ridiculous. And boring
    If you ask a different set of people to vote again about a political question that one set of people has voted on, then there is an argument for saying it is an affront to democracy. But a second vote, hugely impractical as it would have been, would have been perfectly democratic because you would have been asking the same people and they would have been allowed to change their minds or not change their minds.

    dipshit
    “We’re going to give you a once in a lifetime vote on the most important political subject of our time and whatever you vote YOUR vote will be RESPECTED and we will obey it, and there will be no second EU vote, no rethink, nothing like that, this is IT, the will of the British people will be RESPECTED, once and for all and I solemnly promise you this, it is IN or OUT and I am your prime minister”.. and… “What’s more to prove this is true we will send a leaflet to every single British household swearing this is the case, this is it, this is the vote”

    Cue the largest EVER vote in the history of British democracy. The largest EVER. 17.4 MILLION votes in favour of LEAVE

    I guess these silly stupid thick racist voters didn’t read the bits in invisible ink at the end saying “oh this is all shit you working class idiots if you vote Leave we will just fanny around for three years then have an election then reverse what you said you racist proles”

    I’m sorry, there’s no getting round this. Anyone who wanted a 2nd vote, without enacting the first, ie who wanted to “cancel” or “finesse” democracy” is a Trumpite Capitol-storming Fuck-sucker of the first water, just with a posher accent


    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/what-the-capitol-riots-and-the-plot-to-stop-brexit-have-in-common
    The problem I have with that analysis is that if Remain had won 52/48, should UKIP have said 'OK lads, the people have spoken and we're in the EU now.' Should they have moved to support UK membership of the EU out of respect for the referendum?

    Or should they have said, 'our voters want us out, and we will fight for a second vote - which we're going to call a peoples' vote - and it's one that we're going to win'?

    They'd have said the latter, like the SNP. But no serious country can allow itself to be put at risk from continuous constitutional uncertainty. So, like the SNP, they should rightly be told to take a running jump.
    Really? If UKIP had won the 2017 General Election, they should have been prevented from enacting a second referendum?

    I don't agree.
    If they'd won a General Election on that manifesto then fair enough.

    The problem in 2017-19 is that the parties seeking to have a second referendum lost the 2017 election handsomely. Less than 10% of MPs elected in 2017 were done so on a pledge of holding a second referendum.

    Grieve, Starmer, Woolaston and the rest who tried to subvert democracy (not the Lib Dems to be fair) were all elected on a platform of saying the 2016 referendum was decisive and that Brexit would happen. Then they worked night and day to prevent it from happening - and to have a second referendum which went against both 2016 and 2017 commitments.
    They worked day and night because the British public had not given any party an unambiguous mandate to implement the referendum result. It was a hung parliament and Dominic Grieve et al was returned by his constituents who I'm pretty sure knew his views on the subject.
    I'm not sure they did considering in his personal election material in 2017 he said that Brexit would happen. He then voted down every single Brexit option, something not even Ken Clarke did.

    His constituents then chose not to return him in 2019 once he outed himself as willing to subvert democracy.
    You and Seanie are silly on this one. The 2017 parliament was not bound by the 2015 one. A basic principle of our system of parliamentary sovereignty.
    A referendum can't bind a parliament either.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859

    TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    The Speaker needs to haul Boris into Parliament and make him apologise to Keir Starmer over the Jimmy Savile claim. It's such an outrageous claim with absolutely zero evidence (in fact Starmer was someone who helped uncover Savile's horrific legacy of rape and abuse). These kinds of claims need to be corrected and the Speaker should ask Boris to present evidence for his claim or make a retraction and apology.

    Of all the stupid things Boris said yesterday in the house, the claim about Starmer was the worst he's come out with in a very long time. It's a complete falsehood, a known complete falsehood and the PM has abused parliamentary privilege to slander Keir Starmer.

    I make no argument either way about Boris’ pretty OTT Savile remarks. Nonetheless Team Boris have done their research. This is a meme floating around, and it hovers over Starmer



    “Whether it’s fake news or not, Keir Starmer is actually remembered for the one that let Jimmy Savile get away. He was in charge of the CPS at the time. And I still don’t know who he is. He’s not made that impression.”

    From an October 2021 focus group
    Sounds like you are defending 'Team Boris', as you so obsequiously put it.

    And to think I thought you'd discovered a moral backbone these days? Perhaps I was misinformed?

    For the avoidance of doubt, i will say, for the 90th time, I think Boris should resign, He’s lied too much and too clearly, on a much too resonant subject - lockdown and the breaking thereof - it is immoral for him to stay where he is.

    I say this with sadness because ( yes yes, cue much derision) he had greatness in him, from my perspective. But he just can’t deliver anything now

    Now, with that established, we can argue the other points. Politically can he survive? Yes, possibly. Also he could even win in 2024, he has the kind of character than can bounce back.

    And the motives of some of his enemies - who would have destroyed democracy with a “people’s vote” (ie cancel the first vote) are pukeworthy. Starmer is one such. Happy to cancel democracy. C*nt
    Do you view the five-yearly general elections as cancelling democracy.
    Stop being ridiculous. And boring
    If you ask a different set of people to vote again about a political question that one set of people has voted on, then there is an argument for saying it is an affront to democracy. But a second vote, hugely impractical as it would have been, would have been perfectly democratic because you would have been asking the same people and they would have been allowed to change their minds or not change their minds.

    dipshit
    “We’re going to give you a once in a lifetime vote on the most important political subject of our time and whatever you vote YOUR vote will be RESPECTED and we will obey it, and there will be no second EU vote, no rethink, nothing like that, this is IT, the will of the British people will be RESPECTED, once and for all and I solemnly promise you this, it is IN or OUT and I am your prime minister”.. and… “What’s more to prove this is true we will send a leaflet to every single British household swearing this is the case, this is it, this is the vote”

    Cue the largest EVER vote in the history of British democracy. The largest EVER. 17.4 MILLION votes in favour of LEAVE

    I guess these silly stupid thick racist voters didn’t read the bits in invisible ink at the end saying “oh this is all shit you working class idiots if you vote Leave we will just fanny around for three years then have an election then reverse what you said you racist proles”

    I’m sorry, there’s no getting round this. Anyone who wanted a 2nd vote, without enacting the first, ie who wanted to “cancel” or “finesse” democracy” is a Trumpite Capitol-storming Fuck-sucker of the first water, just with a posher accent


    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/what-the-capitol-riots-and-the-plot-to-stop-brexit-have-in-common
    The problem I have with that analysis is that if Remain had won 52/48, should UKIP have said 'OK lads, the people have spoken and we're in the EU now.' Should they have moved to support UK membership of the EU out of respect for the referendum?

    Or should they have said, 'our voters want us out, and we will fight for a second vote - which we're going to call a peoples' vote - and it's one that we're going to win'?

    They'd have said the latter, like the SNP. But no serious country can allow itself to be put at risk from continuous constitutional uncertainty. So, like the SNP, they should rightly be told to take a running jump.
    Really? If UKIP had won the 2017 General Election, they should have been prevented from enacting a second referendum?

    I don't agree.
    If they'd won a General Election on that manifesto then fair enough.

    The problem in 2017-19 is that the parties seeking to have a second referendum lost the 2017 election handsomely. Less than 10% of MPs elected in 2017 were done so on a pledge of holding a second referendum.

    Grieve, Starmer, Woolaston and the rest who tried to subvert democracy (not the Lib Dems to be fair) were all elected on a platform of saying the 2016 referendum was decisive and that Brexit would happen. Then they worked night and day to prevent it from happening - and to have a second referendum which went against both 2016 and 2017 commitments.
    They worked day and night because the British public had not given any party an unambiguous mandate to implement the referendum result. It was a hung parliament and Dominic Grieve et al was returned by his constituents who I'm pretty sure knew his views on the subject.
    I'm not sure they did considering in his personal election material in 2017 he said that Brexit would happen. He then voted down every single Brexit option, something not even Ken Clarke did.

    His constituents then chose not to return him in 2019 once he outed himself as willing to subvert democracy.
    Yet the bottom line is that in Parliament he was worth ten Chopes or Sultanas and it is to our collective shame that we allow our crooked voting system to give such inadequates a free pass whilst excluding people of genuine intelligence and insight.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,355

    IshmaelZ said:

    IanB2 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    PJH said:

    PJH said:

    Heathener said:

    Late to the party so just saw the Savanta ComRes.

    11% ahead with Labour on 44%. Looking good.



    Oh dear, does that mean HYUFD has to call for Johnson's resignation?
    One can always hope

    Each conservative announcing they have submitted their letter to the 1922 gives me a lift and just hope it becomes an avalanche
    It's more like a trickle at the moment however.
    It is the direction of travel and I expect more after tomorrow's pmqs
    Your avalanche analogy is right.

    I forget who it was who said, about bankruptcy, that it "happens very gradually, then very suddenly".

    My reading is that is what is happening here. It will at times look very lacking in momentum, and people will say it is petering out. Then, very suddenly, he'll be gone.
    I don't agree, I doubt there will be a VONC any time soon.

    It’s time to look at my maxim on management decision making, based on 20 years of project management experience. “Management will always decide not to make a decision if that remains an option, especially if the point by which a decision should have been made has already passed”. For management read Tory MPs. So the real question is, when does not making a decision cease to be an option? I suggest after the May local elections next year. That would leave 12-18 months for a successor to turn things round. Until then there is always an excuse to wait, after that Johnson stays.

    For 54 letters to call for him to go before then would require something even worse to happen than heretofore (and it’s hard to see what that could be if Johnson’s performance isn’t already deemed unacceptable), or one of the potential candidates to succeed him to break ranks and force the issue (also unlikely).
    The 'worse' is happening every day and his interview in Kiev was a car crash, not for what he said but the caustic questions from journalists, and this is going to deteriorate every day including tomorrow's pmqs, especially if he uses Savile v Starmer

    Indeed, I now think he will be very fortunate to survive the week
    He will indeed be very fortunate. I know you have already decided, but my point is that if as a Tory MP you haven't already made your mind up, I can't see anything dramatic enough happening to override your instinct (like my management) to 'wait and see'. The constant drip, drip, drip hasn't been enough so far, why will that change for more than a handful of MPs?
    PMQs tomorrow, Humble Address, more embarrassing pressers, bad polls, couplemore MPs going public. That's how drip drip drips work.

    PMQs = Rayner v Raab do we think?
    That will be interesting.

    In presentational politics, big picture generally beats master of the detail (behind the scenes, often the opposite). Which is why Starmer often struggles against the clown. But Rayner is big picture and Raab is the lawyer; Rayner should be short odds on coming out ahead.
    I expect it to be Boris v Starmer and pure theatre

    Boris is home this evening
    Dull. Repeat of yday
    His mps will be the focus

    Will someone do something dramatic
    I think it was last week that David Davis deployed Leo Amery, which seemed dramatic enough at the time, but wasn't enough to conjure up 54 letters.

    Maybe someone will bite their thumb at Johnson this week?
  • IanB2 said:

    Talking of Bozzatron’s diversionary tactics, did we ever hear any more about Rach, Ange and Bridget properly largin’ it on the old Jack and Jills?

    Blimey. We all watched Govey raving his tits off in Aberdeen but he must have been *seriously* tripping to think he is called Rach or Ange or Bridget.
    Amid the furore around the clown’s misjudged Saville accusation, we forget that during the same speech he also made a bizarre accusation yesterday that someone on the Labour front bench was familiar with drugs?
    That seems to have been overshadowed by Savile and goodness only knows what he may say tomorrow

    Watching hiding behind the settee as my son used to do with Dr Who
    He is a desperate, wounded bear lashing out on all sides. Flailing. Failing.

    Hopefully, soon to be falling.

  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,931

    Talking of Aaron Bell, he’s just interviewed on Beeb News. Would probably make a very decent replacement for Bozza.

    200-1 on Coral and Ladbrokes.
  • My ex-colleagues WhatsApp group is agog at the £8.5bn written off on non-delivered or non-compliant PPE.

    Remember that PPE contracts were awarded to Tories with no record in procuring PPE without tender or clauses requiring delivery of actual goods fit for purpose. As well as Liar presiding over a pissed-up Downing Street and endlessly lying to parliament, he has also presided over brazen and open corruption.

    And certain people still defend *that*
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    edited February 2022
    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Farooq said:

    IanB2 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    PJH said:

    PJH said:

    Heathener said:

    Late to the party so just saw the Savanta ComRes.

    11% ahead with Labour on 44%. Looking good.



    Oh dear, does that mean HYUFD has to call for Johnson's resignation?
    One can always hope

    Each conservative announcing they have submitted their letter to the 1922 gives me a lift and just hope it becomes an avalanche
    It's more like a trickle at the moment however.
    It is the direction of travel and I expect more after tomorrow's pmqs
    Your avalanche analogy is right.

    I forget who it was who said, about bankruptcy, that it "happens very gradually, then very suddenly".

    My reading is that is what is happening here. It will at times look very lacking in momentum, and people will say it is petering out. Then, very suddenly, he'll be gone.
    I don't agree, I doubt there will be a VONC any time soon.

    It’s time to look at my maxim on management decision making, based on 20 years of project management experience. “Management will always decide not to make a decision if that remains an option, especially if the point by which a decision should have been made has already passed”. For management read Tory MPs. So the real question is, when does not making a decision cease to be an option? I suggest after the May local elections next year. That would leave 12-18 months for a successor to turn things round. Until then there is always an excuse to wait, after that Johnson stays.

    For 54 letters to call for him to go before then would require something even worse to happen than heretofore (and it’s hard to see what that could be if Johnson’s performance isn’t already deemed unacceptable), or one of the potential candidates to succeed him to break ranks and force the issue (also unlikely).
    The 'worse' is happening every day and his interview in Kiev was a car crash, not for what he said but the caustic questions from journalists, and this is going to deteriorate every day including tomorrow's pmqs, especially if he uses Savile v Starmer

    Indeed, I now think he will be very fortunate to survive the week
    He will indeed be very fortunate. I know you have already decided, but my point is that if as a Tory MP you haven't already made your mind up, I can't see anything dramatic enough happening to override your instinct (like my management) to 'wait and see'. The constant drip, drip, drip hasn't been enough so far, why will that change for more than a handful of MPs?
    PMQs tomorrow, Humble Address, more embarrassing pressers, bad polls, couplemore MPs going public. That's how drip drip drips work.

    PMQs = Rayner v Raab do we think?
    That will be interesting.

    In presentational politics, big picture generally beats master of the detail (behind the scenes, often the opposite). Which is why Starmer often struggles against the clown. But Rayner is big picture and Raab is the lawyer; Rayner should be short odds on coming out ahead.
    I expect it to be Boris v Starmer and pure theatre

    Boris is home this evening
    Via the duty free
    Cakes.

    Watching him in Kiev his weight seems to have ballooned and he looks as scruffy as ever
    Ambushed by Chicken Kiev?
    Isn't it now Kyiv, but pronounced Kiev?
    Ukrainians would pronounce it "Kyiv"!

    Cf. Kharkiv versus Kharkov, Lviv versus Lvov.
    In recent years I've happened to come to know quite a few Ukranians. Nice people. Ukrainian people - but that's up to them and them only.
    The strangest one is the port of Mykolayiv, which used to be Nikolayev. "M" substituted for "N".
  • Wow. Someone finally persuaded her to leave the MEN and go national. A very well deserved move. Top journo. Good luck to her.



    Sebastian Payne
    @SebastianEPayne
    ·
    2h
    Could not be more thrilled than @JenWilliamsMEN
    is joining the FT as our new Northern England correspondent!

    Chuffed that one of the best journalists in the land is joining our merry band - expect top coverage on levelling up, mayors and much more.

    https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1488551306532954120
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Oooft - brutal Qs from the BBC to Boris Johnson in Ukraine!

    Asked if he has done enough to save his premiership after 'partygate' and how foreign leaders can take British diplomacy seriously as he prioritised talking to MPs over Putin...

    https://twitter.com/LizzyBuchan/status/1488568358962401289

    Totally irresponsible question from the BBC.

    Ask at home maybe but not in Ukraine when Ukraine is desperately welcoming the support from the UK PM against Putin. All the BBC have done by that question is strengthen Putin
    Well simply stop supporting the one man responsible for all this nonsense in the first place. If he could either apologise or even just tell the truth occasionally it would not be an issue.

    Your support for him weakens the West militarily. The West is weakened from the divisive autocratic nationalism you love and strengthened by the liberal democracy you seek to destroy.
    Utter rubbish.

    The Ukrainian Parliament today saw Ukrainian MPs wave the Nato, UK, US, Turkish, Canadian, Danish and Polish flags as all have given support against Putin. Notably absent were the EU, German and French flags as none of them have given any real support to Ukraine.

    https://twitter.com/KenWeinstein/status/1488559378261233672?s=20&t=F5MeBLxuJfxsD7jkw6tCHQ

    It is now diehard Remainers like you who are Putin's best friends by default as you desperately try and undermine Boris
    Do you have any basic decency? Morality? Standards?

    Take a look in the mirror at yourself. You are defending *that*. Every day that you do so, ever more desperate you are to deflect and deny, the more pitiful it becomes.

    You can ignore my perspective because you have no interest in it or me - thats fine, I have zero interest in how people who I don't respect consider me either. But we now have long-standing Tory stalwarts calling it what it is. They have decency. You should try and find some before it is too late.
    He is supposed to be a Christian
    Yes. One who has not read the Gospels as he preaches "christian" morality in direct conflict with His teachings as set out in things like Luke 15:3.

    Its a bit like American "christians" who have a Bible that consists entirely of Genesis, Leviticus and Revelation.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,759

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Farooq said:

    IanB2 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    PJH said:

    PJH said:

    Heathener said:

    Late to the party so just saw the Savanta ComRes.

    11% ahead with Labour on 44%. Looking good.



    Oh dear, does that mean HYUFD has to call for Johnson's resignation?
    One can always hope

    Each conservative announcing they have submitted their letter to the 1922 gives me a lift and just hope it becomes an avalanche
    It's more like a trickle at the moment however.
    It is the direction of travel and I expect more after tomorrow's pmqs
    Your avalanche analogy is right.

    I forget who it was who said, about bankruptcy, that it "happens very gradually, then very suddenly".

    My reading is that is what is happening here. It will at times look very lacking in momentum, and people will say it is petering out. Then, very suddenly, he'll be gone.
    I don't agree, I doubt there will be a VONC any time soon.

    It’s time to look at my maxim on management decision making, based on 20 years of project management experience. “Management will always decide not to make a decision if that remains an option, especially if the point by which a decision should have been made has already passed”. For management read Tory MPs. So the real question is, when does not making a decision cease to be an option? I suggest after the May local elections next year. That would leave 12-18 months for a successor to turn things round. Until then there is always an excuse to wait, after that Johnson stays.

    For 54 letters to call for him to go before then would require something even worse to happen than heretofore (and it’s hard to see what that could be if Johnson’s performance isn’t already deemed unacceptable), or one of the potential candidates to succeed him to break ranks and force the issue (also unlikely).
    The 'worse' is happening every day and his interview in Kiev was a car crash, not for what he said but the caustic questions from journalists, and this is going to deteriorate every day including tomorrow's pmqs, especially if he uses Savile v Starmer

    Indeed, I now think he will be very fortunate to survive the week
    He will indeed be very fortunate. I know you have already decided, but my point is that if as a Tory MP you haven't already made your mind up, I can't see anything dramatic enough happening to override your instinct (like my management) to 'wait and see'. The constant drip, drip, drip hasn't been enough so far, why will that change for more than a handful of MPs?
    PMQs tomorrow, Humble Address, more embarrassing pressers, bad polls, couplemore MPs going public. That's how drip drip drips work.

    PMQs = Rayner v Raab do we think?
    That will be interesting.

    In presentational politics, big picture generally beats master of the detail (behind the scenes, often the opposite). Which is why Starmer often struggles against the clown. But Rayner is big picture and Raab is the lawyer; Rayner should be short odds on coming out ahead.
    I expect it to be Boris v Starmer and pure theatre

    Boris is home this evening
    Via the duty free
    Cakes.

    Watching him in Kiev his weight seems to have ballooned and he looks as scruffy as ever
    Ambushed by Chicken Kiev?
    Isn't it now Kyiv, but pronounced Kiev?
    Ukrainians would pronounce it "Kyiv"!

    Cf. Kharkiv versus Kharkov, Lviv versus Lvov.
    In recent years I've happened to come to know quite a few Ukranians. Nice people. Ukrainian people - but that's up to them and them only.
    The strangest one is the port of Mykolayiv, which used to be Nikolayev. "M" substituted for "N".
    That's never come up in conversation.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    Applicant said:

    kinabalu said:

    Applicant said:

    kinabalu said:

    Applicant said:

    kinabalu said:

    Farooq said:

    MrEd said:

    Farooq said:

    @MrEd

    I've read the two pieces you linked to earlier. Here's my response.

    "the chief prerequisite for a coup is control of all or part of the armed forces, the police, and other military elements. We saw none of that on January 6th"

    But that's exactly what happened! The US President is the commander in chief. By attempting to stay in that role unconstitutionally, he was trying to stay in control of the military.

    "The man has no attention span, no interest in planning or strategy, and most importantly, no ability to maintain relationships with the type of people who do have those qualities (like Steve Bannon). Even if he wanted to overturn “democracy itself” — I don’t believe he does, but let’s say — Trump has proven over and over he lacks the qualities a politician would need to make that happen."

    Well, so what? That's just describing why he failed. He tried a coup but was distracted by shark films and Twitter. Great, but that doesn't mean he didn't try to do a coup!

    As for the Greenwald piece, it's largely about the subsequent fear of repeats. The bit that deals with the attempted coup is sensible:
    "The key point to emphasize here is that threats and dangers are not binary: they either exist or they are fully illusory. They reside on a spectrum. To insist that they be discussed rationally, soberly and truthfully is not to deny the existence of the threat itself. One can demand a rational and fact-based understanding of the magnitude of the threat revealed by the January 6 riot [sic] without denying that there is any danger at all."
    but comes down on the wrong side of the fence. What matters is not the LEVEL of violence involved, but the aims of the perpetrators and the constitutionality of their actions. Certainly there have been successful coups that were even less violent than this attempt, and this one resulted in hundreds of injuries and five short-term deaths (possibly several more in the medium term, counting suicides of law enforcement).

    I'm afraid it's far from good enough to say it wasn't violent enough to be a coup attempt. It was violent, and it was a coup attempt. These things don't have to be linked, but the fact that they coincide makes it a contortionist's exercise to try to make the case for it not being an attempted coup. It looks like a duck and it quacks like a duck, so it's a duck.

    First of all, kudos to you for reading the pieces. And also for going through the points. There was another one of Greenwald's that was more relevant but I couldn't find it so I posted that one as it had the main points.

    Talibi's point (and he says that he doesn't believe Trump wanted to overturn democracy, which is what I think) is not that it wasn't violent enough but that it was clear - from Trump's actions before, during and after - that he was not planning a coup. He was totally irresponsible and stoked up the crowd (although there are question marks now being asked about who did what exactly) but that is not a coup.

    Put it another way, if Jeremy Corbyn whipped up a crowd to say that the 2019 GE was stolen from him, and to march on Parliament, and that crowd then entered Parliament looking for MPs and the Lords, would you say JC was organising a coup or not?
    Yes, I probably would.
    It's tricky because there's no direct comparison with the EC certification process in the UK, so if this had been at another time I would be tempted to "merely" call it an act of terror. But the rally and the invasion of the Capitol were timed to be exactly when the last legal nicety was happening to seal Biden's victory. That is NOT a coincidence and it is why this episode deserves to be called an attempted coup. It's not about counting bodies, it's about what the purpose of unleashing the crowd was.

    As for intent, you can tell from Trump's public statements that he regarded (wrongly) the election as having been stolen from him and these statements were attempts to legitimise exactly this kind of action.

    This was a coup attempt, there is zero doubt.
    And the calculated pitch rolling - to declare a loss as a win - from months out.
    And the thing is, he fixated on the wrong thing. He'd have had a stronger case claiming that the unprecedented four-year media campaign against him and/or Zuckerberg's millions made the election not free and/or fair rather than the insane claims that the ballot count didn't match the ballots cast.
    I seem to recall he moaned a lot about that too. With rather less justification than similar from Jeremy Corbyn.
    What Corbyn got didn't even compare.
    Correct. It was far worse.
    Wow. I think you actually believe that.
    I perhaps need to explain better what I mean about Trump and the media. You will then understand, I think.
  • TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    The Speaker needs to haul Boris into Parliament and make him apologise to Keir Starmer over the Jimmy Savile claim. It's such an outrageous claim with absolutely zero evidence (in fact Starmer was someone who helped uncover Savile's horrific legacy of rape and abuse). These kinds of claims need to be corrected and the Speaker should ask Boris to present evidence for his claim or make a retraction and apology.

    Of all the stupid things Boris said yesterday in the house, the claim about Starmer was the worst he's come out with in a very long time. It's a complete falsehood, a known complete falsehood and the PM has abused parliamentary privilege to slander Keir Starmer.

    I make no argument either way about Boris’ pretty OTT Savile remarks. Nonetheless Team Boris have done their research. This is a meme floating around, and it hovers over Starmer



    “Whether it’s fake news or not, Keir Starmer is actually remembered for the one that let Jimmy Savile get away. He was in charge of the CPS at the time. And I still don’t know who he is. He’s not made that impression.”

    From an October 2021 focus group
    Sounds like you are defending 'Team Boris', as you so obsequiously put it.

    And to think I thought you'd discovered a moral backbone these days? Perhaps I was misinformed?

    For the avoidance of doubt, i will say, for the 90th time, I think Boris should resign, He’s lied too much and too clearly, on a much too resonant subject - lockdown and the breaking thereof - it is immoral for him to stay where he is.

    I say this with sadness because ( yes yes, cue much derision) he had greatness in him, from my perspective. But he just can’t deliver anything now

    Now, with that established, we can argue the other points. Politically can he survive? Yes, possibly. Also he could even win in 2024, he has the kind of character than can bounce back.

    And the motives of some of his enemies - who would have destroyed democracy with a “people’s vote” (ie cancel the first vote) are pukeworthy. Starmer is one such. Happy to cancel democracy. C*nt
    Do you view the five-yearly general elections as cancelling democracy.
    Stop being ridiculous. And boring
    If you ask a different set of people to vote again about a political question that one set of people has voted on, then there is an argument for saying it is an affront to democracy. But a second vote, hugely impractical as it would have been, would have been perfectly democratic because you would have been asking the same people and they would have been allowed to change their minds or not change their minds.

    dipshit
    “We’re going to give you a once in a lifetime vote on the most important political subject of our time and whatever you vote YOUR vote will be RESPECTED and we will obey it, and there will be no second EU vote, no rethink, nothing like that, this is IT, the will of the British people will be RESPECTED, once and for all and I solemnly promise you this, it is IN or OUT and I am your prime minister”.. and… “What’s more to prove this is true we will send a leaflet to every single British household swearing this is the case, this is it, this is the vote”

    Cue the largest EVER vote in the history of British democracy. The largest EVER. 17.4 MILLION votes in favour of LEAVE

    I guess these silly stupid thick racist voters didn’t read the bits in invisible ink at the end saying “oh this is all shit you working class idiots if you vote Leave we will just fanny around for three years then have an election then reverse what you said you racist proles”

    I’m sorry, there’s no getting round this. Anyone who wanted a 2nd vote, without enacting the first, ie who wanted to “cancel” or “finesse” democracy” is a Trumpite Capitol-storming Fuck-sucker of the first water, just with a posher accent


    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/what-the-capitol-riots-and-the-plot-to-stop-brexit-have-in-common
    The problem I have with that analysis is that if Remain had won 52/48, should UKIP have said 'OK lads, the people have spoken and we're in the EU now.' Should they have moved to support UK membership of the EU out of respect for the referendum?

    Or should they have said, 'our voters want us out, and we will fight for a second vote - which we're going to call a peoples' vote - and it's one that we're going to win'?

    They'd have said the latter, like the SNP. But no serious country can allow itself to be put at risk from continuous constitutional uncertainty. So, like the SNP, they should rightly be told to take a running jump.
    Really? If UKIP had won the 2017 General Election, they should have been prevented from enacting a second referendum?

    I don't agree.
    If they'd won a General Election on that manifesto then fair enough.

    The problem in 2017-19 is that the parties seeking to have a second referendum lost the 2017 election handsomely. Less than 10% of MPs elected in 2017 were done so on a pledge of holding a second referendum.

    Grieve, Starmer, Woolaston and the rest who tried to subvert democracy (not the Lib Dems to be fair) were all elected on a platform of saying the 2016 referendum was decisive and that Brexit would happen. Then they worked night and day to prevent it from happening - and to have a second referendum which went against both 2016 and 2017 commitments.
    They worked day and night because the British public had not given any party an unambiguous mandate to implement the referendum result. It was a hung parliament and Dominic Grieve et al was returned by his constituents who I'm pretty sure knew his views on the subject.
    I'm not sure they did considering in his personal election material in 2017 he said that Brexit would happen. He then voted down every single Brexit option, something not even Ken Clarke did.

    His constituents then chose not to return him in 2019 once he outed himself as willing to subvert democracy.
    You and Seanie are silly on this one. The 2017 parliament was not bound by the 2015 one. A basic principle of our system of parliamentary sovereignty.
    A referendum can't bind a parliament either.
    Even if it did, it binds *that* parliament. Any parliament is free to pass any laws it sees fit regardless of the actions of previous parliaments, laws on statute etc etc.

    There seem to be a few people who both bang the Brexit table as being required for parliamentary sovereignty whilst suggesting that parliament not be allowed to be sovereign.
  • As Johnson gets more and more desperate to cling on, whatever the cost and whoever is hurt in the crossfire, we will increasingly find out whether the Conservative Party has gone GOP and is incapable of stopping this dangerous lunatic who causing incalculable damage to every institution he goes near.

    Britain Trump!
  • Interesting chat with Danish COVID modeller...

    https://youtu.be/1s1UX2ZNsh4
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373
    edited February 2022
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MISTY said:

    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    On the polls - there was definitely a swing back to the Conservatives as partygate faded in resonance. Once back in the spotlight it's clear the polls are going back to Labour. FWIW I think they will swing again but not by enough to save the Tories as long as Boris remains. His time is up and he needs to go. No amount of HYUFD's dodgy poll analysis can alter that. If he goes then it's all to play for as Starmer is currently the 'lucky general' benefiting from Boris's lunacy wrt flouting the covid regs. It really is not very complicated and I agree with Leon it is now truly boring and needs to end.

    Of course Boris is in Ukraine this afternoon.

    If Putin invaded Ukraine next week partygate would be forgotten within a week.
    Precisely.

    Nobody is going to forget soaring gas prices and the highest tax rates in 70 years though. Not now. Not for a generation.

    Behold your tories.
    That is also Sunak's Tories, so replacing Boris does not suddenly lead to a Tory win.

    Only time a PM has won a general election since universal suffrage in 1918 after 10 years of their party in power was Major in 1992 and he had a big policy difference with Thatcher on the poll tax which he scrapped
    You quite often play this game. By saying "since 1918" the suggestion you make is that it's common to have ten years in power.

    My assumption is you're not counting 1918 itself or 1945 as cases of trying to save an election by changing a leader - neither Lloyd-George nor Churchill had won the previous election as party leader but were longstanding war PMs. One won (in a fashion), the other lost.

    So you're left with: (i) 1964 - which in all fairness Douglas-Home very nearly pulled it off from an incredibly difficult position; (ii) 1992 - the "exception" proving your supposed "rule"; and (iii) 2010 - which Brown lost by about the amount of the Tory lead before he took it on (albeit the financial crisis was a pretty big element, defining his Premiership).

    So you invent these political "laws" by spinning the thinnest of evidence. In fact, you're looking at three data points with mixed messages, aren't you?
    Churchill also lost in 1945 after 14 years of the Tories in power.

    In 1918 the Liberals lost after 12 years in power, even the combined total of Asquith's Liberals and Lloyd George's National Liberals was less than the 379 Tory MPs Bonar Law won. Even if Lloyd George stayed PM it was a Tory dominated government.

    In fact you have to go back to Lord Salisbury's win in 1900 after 14 years of Tory rule (BigG remembers it well) to find the last time a PM won a general election after 10 years of their party in power pre Major 1992
    Re: last para, this is factually incorrect (or "wrong" in plain English) as it totally ignores period from 15 August 1892 through 22 June 1895 when Liberal Party governed, first under Gladstone's last administration then under Lord Rosebery's first (and only).

    So Lord Salisbury's victory in Khaki Election of 1900 came after just five years in power NOT fourteen.

    And thus "last time a PM won a general election after 10 years of their party in power pre Major 1992" was in 1826, when Lord Liverpool secured his 4th consecutive general election triumph, thus continuing Tory rule that had begun in 1807 thru to 1831 general election which was won by Whigs.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_Kingdom_general_elections
    You are partly right apologies in that the Liberals were in power after the 1892 election until 1895.

    However the Conservatives did still win most seats in the 1892 general election, 314 to 272 for Gladstone's Liberals.

    Salisbury did not initially resign and in the end Gladstone formed a minority government propped up by the Irish Nationalists and was succeeded by Lord Rosebery as PM in 1894. Salisbury's Tories then won an overall majority at the 1895 general election.

    Just goes to show how difficult it is to win a general election after 10 years of your party in power. In the last 200 years, only John Major and Lord Liverpool have managed it
    I'd written a response to your post ponting out your error, but @SeaShantyIrish2 beat me to it.

    My post would have ended with 'This does of course tend to strengthen your argument, but I will be interested to see if you admit your mistake this time.'

    The answer would appear to be 'no.' You said 'party in power.' The Unionists had only been in power for five years in 1900.

    Out of curiosity what would it take for you to admit a mistake?

    Edit - although I note you do use the word 'apologies' before trying to downplay your error.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561

    I am no fan of mid term polls but I wonder if that ComRes survey might have steeled a few knives. It really went against the narrative that Bozza, HY and Owls were trying to push that the panic was over and the public were happy to move on.

    It's not over.

    Once seen screwing the pooch, that can't be unseen.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134

    Apparently Starmer wouldn't be getting smeared if we had all learned to love Jezza.

    "Owen Jones
    @OwenJones84
    Here's the thing. A lot of people didn't speak out loudly about, say, Jeremy Corbyn being falsely portrayed as a Czech spy because they didn't like the guy.

    But in doing so, they helped normalise a right-wing smear machine, and well, here we are guys!"

    That just looks to me like a perfectly valid and relevant observation from Jones.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,812
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    No 10 dismiss Julian Smith's criticism of Johnson and stand by Johnson's Starmer/ Saville allegations. R4 ,PM.

    Boris is going strong on this.

    I really cannot understand why unless he has something that is a lot more direct than anything seen to date. Its another distraction technique and a deeply unimpressive one.
    I think it's pretty obvious.

    Now we're talking about whether Starmer actually protected Saville, and not about the fact that Johnson lied to Parliament. Repeatedly.
    Yeah but we also discussing whether he misled Parliament about yet another thing.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    IanB2 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    PJH said:

    PJH said:

    Heathener said:

    Late to the party so just saw the Savanta ComRes.

    11% ahead with Labour on 44%. Looking good.



    Oh dear, does that mean HYUFD has to call for Johnson's resignation?
    One can always hope

    Each conservative announcing they have submitted their letter to the 1922 gives me a lift and just hope it becomes an avalanche
    It's more like a trickle at the moment however.
    It is the direction of travel and I expect more after tomorrow's pmqs
    Your avalanche analogy is right.

    I forget who it was who said, about bankruptcy, that it "happens very gradually, then very suddenly".

    My reading is that is what is happening here. It will at times look very lacking in momentum, and people will say it is petering out. Then, very suddenly, he'll be gone.
    I don't agree, I doubt there will be a VONC any time soon.

    It’s time to look at my maxim on management decision making, based on 20 years of project management experience. “Management will always decide not to make a decision if that remains an option, especially if the point by which a decision should have been made has already passed”. For management read Tory MPs. So the real question is, when does not making a decision cease to be an option? I suggest after the May local elections next year. That would leave 12-18 months for a successor to turn things round. Until then there is always an excuse to wait, after that Johnson stays.

    For 54 letters to call for him to go before then would require something even worse to happen than heretofore (and it’s hard to see what that could be if Johnson’s performance isn’t already deemed unacceptable), or one of the potential candidates to succeed him to break ranks and force the issue (also unlikely).
    The 'worse' is happening every day and his interview in Kiev was a car crash, not for what he said but the caustic questions from journalists, and this is going to deteriorate every day including tomorrow's pmqs, especially if he uses Savile v Starmer

    Indeed, I now think he will be very fortunate to survive the week
    He will indeed be very fortunate. I know you have already decided, but my point is that if as a Tory MP you haven't already made your mind up, I can't see anything dramatic enough happening to override your instinct (like my management) to 'wait and see'. The constant drip, drip, drip hasn't been enough so far, why will that change for more than a handful of MPs?
    PMQs tomorrow, Humble Address, more embarrassing pressers, bad polls, couplemore MPs going public. That's how drip drip drips work.

    PMQs = Rayner v Raab do we think?
    That will be interesting.

    In presentational politics, big picture generally beats master of the detail (behind the scenes, often the opposite). Which is why Starmer often struggles against the clown. But Rayner is big picture and Raab is the lawyer; Rayner should be short odds on coming out ahead.
    I expect it to be Boris v Starmer and pure theatre

    Boris is home this evening
    Dull. Repeat of yday
    His mps will be the focus

    Will someone do something dramatic
    I think it was last week that David Davis deployed Leo Amery, which seemed dramatic enough at the time, but wasn't enough to conjure up 54 letters.

    Maybe someone will bite their thumb at Johnson this week?
    Is he back from Ukraine in time for the weekly 30 minutes of LIES and HATE?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    kinabalu said:

    Apparently Starmer wouldn't be getting smeared if we had all learned to love Jezza.

    "Owen Jones
    @OwenJones84
    Here's the thing. A lot of people didn't speak out loudly about, say, Jeremy Corbyn being falsely portrayed as a Czech spy because they didn't like the guy.

    But in doing so, they helped normalise a right-wing smear machine, and well, here we are guys!"

    That just looks to me like a perfectly valid and relevant observation from Jones.
    Nah. The only thing that would have stopped such smears was Starmer not becoming LOTO
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926
    edited February 2022

    My ex-colleagues WhatsApp group is agog at the £8.5bn written off on non-delivered or non-compliant PPE.

    Remember that PPE contracts were awarded to Tories with no record in procuring PPE without tender or clauses requiring delivery of actual goods fit for purpose. As well as Liar presiding over a pissed-up Downing Street and endlessly lying to parliament, he has also presided over brazen and open corruption.

    And certain people still defend *that*

    Most of that was actually due to the price being inflated, not due to non-delivery or non-compliance. Who'd have thunk it when there was a made scramble for PPE going on.
  • Interesting chat with Danish COVID modeller...

    https://youtu.be/1s1UX2ZNsh4

    There was a debate two? days ago about the modelling. I do hope SAGE are allowed to compare notes with other countries.

    Also, Freddie Sayers is a good interviewer.
  • Interesting chat with Danish COVID modeller...

    https://youtu.be/1s1UX2ZNsh4

    There was a debate two? days ago about the modelling. I do hope SAGE are allowed to compare notes with other countries.

    Also, Freddie Sayers is a good interviewer.
    If GB News had been serious about being an alternative news outlet, I would have signed him up, rather than the nut nuts they hired.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553

    Interesting chat with Danish COVID modeller...

    https://youtu.be/1s1UX2ZNsh4

    Thank goodness for Danish common sense. They're not interested in prolonging the lockdown longer than necessary.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Farooq said:

    IanB2 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    PJH said:

    PJH said:

    Heathener said:

    Late to the party so just saw the Savanta ComRes.

    11% ahead with Labour on 44%. Looking good.



    Oh dear, does that mean HYUFD has to call for Johnson's resignation?
    One can always hope

    Each conservative announcing they have submitted their letter to the 1922 gives me a lift and just hope it becomes an avalanche
    It's more like a trickle at the moment however.
    It is the direction of travel and I expect more after tomorrow's pmqs
    Your avalanche analogy is right.

    I forget who it was who said, about bankruptcy, that it "happens very gradually, then very suddenly".

    My reading is that is what is happening here. It will at times look very lacking in momentum, and people will say it is petering out. Then, very suddenly, he'll be gone.
    I don't agree, I doubt there will be a VONC any time soon.

    It’s time to look at my maxim on management decision making, based on 20 years of project management experience. “Management will always decide not to make a decision if that remains an option, especially if the point by which a decision should have been made has already passed”. For management read Tory MPs. So the real question is, when does not making a decision cease to be an option? I suggest after the May local elections next year. That would leave 12-18 months for a successor to turn things round. Until then there is always an excuse to wait, after that Johnson stays.

    For 54 letters to call for him to go before then would require something even worse to happen than heretofore (and it’s hard to see what that could be if Johnson’s performance isn’t already deemed unacceptable), or one of the potential candidates to succeed him to break ranks and force the issue (also unlikely).
    The 'worse' is happening every day and his interview in Kiev was a car crash, not for what he said but the caustic questions from journalists, and this is going to deteriorate every day including tomorrow's pmqs, especially if he uses Savile v Starmer

    Indeed, I now think he will be very fortunate to survive the week
    He will indeed be very fortunate. I know you have already decided, but my point is that if as a Tory MP you haven't already made your mind up, I can't see anything dramatic enough happening to override your instinct (like my management) to 'wait and see'. The constant drip, drip, drip hasn't been enough so far, why will that change for more than a handful of MPs?
    PMQs tomorrow, Humble Address, more embarrassing pressers, bad polls, couplemore MPs going public. That's how drip drip drips work.

    PMQs = Rayner v Raab do we think?
    That will be interesting.

    In presentational politics, big picture generally beats master of the detail (behind the scenes, often the opposite). Which is why Starmer often struggles against the clown. But Rayner is big picture and Raab is the lawyer; Rayner should be short odds on coming out ahead.
    I expect it to be Boris v Starmer and pure theatre

    Boris is home this evening
    Via the duty free
    Why not? He'll have a suitcase.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited February 2022
    Most interesting point from Danish modellers they explicitly model human behaviour change that happens when reports of cases rising. They also model different areas of society based upon susceptible depletion based on previous waves.
  • I just don't understand how Johnson is not going to have to resign when he is fined for attending parties that he clearly and explicitly told Parliament did not happen.

    It was a clear lie.

    He can only stay if the convention and ministerial code about lying to the Commons is over and finished.

    Tory MPs should bear in mind where that takes the country and our democracy.

    They should close their eyes and imagine that Corbyn and his fellow travellers had won a GE and could lie at the despatch box as much as they like.
  • DAZN closing on deal to buy BT Sport and its Premier League rights

    BT chiefs have opened talks with the Premier League to seek its approval for the sale of BT Sport to another broadcaster, with the streaming service DAZN the favourite to secure the takeover.

    The Premier League is BT Sport’s biggest domestic partner in terms of TV rights with a deal stretching until 2025, and it has to give its agreement to a sale. BT also has to obtain approval from Uefa because it has the British rights for the Champions League and Europa League.

    Discovery, the US media giant, is also interested in acquiring BT Sport or forming a joint venture and it is understood to remain in the running.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/dazn-closing-on-deal-to-buy-bt-sport-and-its-premier-league-rights-qz68h6qsq
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Savile's victims calling for Johnson to withdraw his accusations to Sir Keir Starmer.

    He won't and I equally doubt MexicanPete will withdraw his support for them. That's the level this country has sunk to. People think it's fine to lie.

    https://news.sky.com/story/jimmy-saviles-victims-call-on-boris-johnson-to-withdraw-sir-keir-starmer-accusations-12530517
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    ….

    IshmaelZ said:

    IanB2 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    PJH said:

    PJH said:

    Heathener said:

    Late to the party so just saw the Savanta ComRes.

    11% ahead with Labour on 44%. Looking good.



    Oh dear, does that mean HYUFD has to call for Johnson's resignation?
    One can always hope

    Each conservative announcing they have submitted their letter to the 1922 gives me a lift and just hope it becomes an avalanche
    It's more like a trickle at the moment however.
    It is the direction of travel and I expect more after tomorrow's pmqs
    Your avalanche analogy is right.

    I forget who it was who said, about bankruptcy, that it "happens very gradually, then very suddenly".

    My reading is that is what is happening here. It will at times look very lacking in momentum, and people will say it is petering out. Then, very suddenly, he'll be gone.
    I don't agree, I doubt there will be a VONC any time soon.

    It’s time to look at my maxim on management decision making, based on 20 years of project management experience. “Management will always decide not to make a decision if that remains an option, especially if the point by which a decision should have been made has already passed”. For management read Tory MPs. So the real question is, when does not making a decision cease to be an option? I suggest after the May local elections next year. That would leave 12-18 months for a successor to turn things round. Until then there is always an excuse to wait, after that Johnson stays.

    For 54 letters to call for him to go before then would require something even worse to happen than heretofore (and it’s hard to see what that could be if Johnson’s performance isn’t already deemed unacceptable), or one of the potential candidates to succeed him to break ranks and force the issue (also unlikely).
    The 'worse' is happening every day and his interview in Kiev was a car crash, not for what he said but the caustic questions from journalists, and this is going to deteriorate every day including tomorrow's pmqs, especially if he uses Savile v Starmer

    Indeed, I now think he will be very fortunate to survive the week
    He will indeed be very fortunate. I know you have already decided, but my point is that if as a Tory MP you haven't already made your mind up, I can't see anything dramatic enough happening to override your instinct (like my management) to 'wait and see'. The constant drip, drip, drip hasn't been enough so far, why will that change for more than a handful of MPs?
    PMQs tomorrow, Humble Address, more embarrassing pressers, bad polls, couplemore MPs going public. That's how drip drip drips work.

    PMQs = Rayner v Raab do we think?
    That will be interesting.

    In presentational politics, big picture generally beats master of the detail (behind the scenes, often the opposite). Which is why Starmer often struggles against the clown. But Rayner is big picture and Raab is the lawyer; Rayner should be short odds on coming out ahead.
    I expect it to be Boris v Starmer and pure theatre

    Boris is home this evening
    Dull. Repeat of yday
    His mps will be the focus

    Will someone do something dramatic
    I think it was last week that David Davis deployed Leo Amery, which seemed dramatic enough at the time, but wasn't enough to conjure up 54 letters.

    Maybe someone will bite their thumb at Johnson this week?
    I think as David Davis sat down he had visions of being the Geoffrey Howe de nos jours.

    I can see his giant head filling with his original and damning statement (not damning and not original) resonating through time as the moment Boris fell.

    He pictured endless replays on the news and it being replayed on BBC parliament in 30 years time.

    Unfortunately he wasn’t the roaring lion that he thought he was, not even the SAS assassin but a dead sheep that was full of gas that deflated over two weeks with only the farmer and hill walkers noticing and remembering the noise.

    It needs someone nobody would expect to deliver the coup de grace rather than the ineffectual Coup de Trump.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373
    edited February 2022

    I just don't understand how Johnson is not going to have to resign when he is fined for attending parties that he clearly and explicitly told Parliament did not happen.

    It was a clear lie.

    He can only stay if the convention and ministerial code about lying to the Commons is over and finished.

    Tory MPs should bear in mind where that takes the country and our democracy.

    They should close their eyes and imagine that Corbyn and his fellow travellers had won a GE and could lie at the despatch box as much as they like.

    Perhaps we should remember it was the coverup that did for Nixon, not the break in. In fact, for many years there was no conclusive evidence to show he had ordered or even knew about the break in (although we all knew he did, of course).

    However, one point does quite alarm me. Is it true the Met has said they will not name any individuals who are fined over lockdown breaches in this case? Not only does that run counter to the police's previous practice where they've named several people even when they had been cleared, but this was on public property. Don't we as the public have a right to know who's been breaking laws in our houses?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    edited February 2022
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MISTY said:

    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    On the polls - there was definitely a swing back to the Conservatives as partygate faded in resonance. Once back in the spotlight it's clear the polls are going back to Labour. FWIW I think they will swing again but not by enough to save the Tories as long as Boris remains. His time is up and he needs to go. No amount of HYUFD's dodgy poll analysis can alter that. If he goes then it's all to play for as Starmer is currently the 'lucky general' benefiting from Boris's lunacy wrt flouting the covid regs. It really is not very complicated and I agree with Leon it is now truly boring and needs to end.

    Of course Boris is in Ukraine this afternoon.

    If Putin invaded Ukraine next week partygate would be forgotten within a week.
    Precisely.

    Nobody is going to forget soaring gas prices and the highest tax rates in 70 years though. Not now. Not for a generation.

    Behold your tories.
    That is also Sunak's Tories, so replacing Boris does not suddenly lead to a Tory win.

    Only time a PM has won a general election since universal suffrage in 1918 after 10 years of their party in power was Major in 1992 and he had a big policy difference with Thatcher on the poll tax which he scrapped
    You quite often play this game. By saying "since 1918" the suggestion you make is that it's common to have ten years in power.

    My assumption is you're not counting 1918 itself or 1945 as cases of trying to save an election by changing a leader - neither Lloyd-George nor Churchill had won the previous election as party leader but were longstanding war PMs. One won (in a fashion), the other lost.

    So you're left with: (i) 1964 - which in all fairness Douglas-Home very nearly pulled it off from an incredibly difficult position; (ii) 1992 - the "exception" proving your supposed "rule"; and (iii) 2010 - which Brown lost by about the amount of the Tory lead before he took it on (albeit the financial crisis was a pretty big element, defining his Premiership).

    So you invent these political "laws" by spinning the thinnest of evidence. In fact, you're looking at three data points with mixed messages, aren't you?
    Churchill also lost in 1945 after 14 years of the Tories in power.

    In 1918 the Liberals lost after 12 years in power, even the combined total of Asquith's Liberals and Lloyd George's National Liberals was less than the 379 Tory MPs Bonar Law won. Even if Lloyd George stayed PM it was a Tory dominated government.

    In fact you have to go back to Lord Salisbury's win in 1900 after 14 years of Tory rule (BigG remembers it well) to find the last time a PM won a general election after 10 years of their party in power pre Major 1992
    Re: last para, this is factually incorrect (or "wrong" in plain English) as it totally ignores period from 15 August 1892 through 22 June 1895 when Liberal Party governed, first under Gladstone's last administration then under Lord Rosebery's first (and only).

    So Lord Salisbury's victory in Khaki Election of 1900 came after just five years in power NOT fourteen.

    And thus "last time a PM won a general election after 10 years of their party in power pre Major 1992" was in 1826, when Lord Liverpool secured his 4th consecutive general election triumph, thus continuing Tory rule that had begun in 1807 thru to 1831 general election which was won by Whigs.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_Kingdom_general_elections
    You are partly right apologies in that the Liberals were in power after the 1892 election until 1895.

    However the Conservatives did still win most seats in the 1892 general election, 314 to 272 for Gladstone's Liberals.

    Salisbury did not initially resign and in the end Gladstone formed a minority government propped up by the Irish Nationalists and was succeeded by Lord Rosebery as PM in 1894. Salisbury's Tories then won an overall majority at the 1895 general election.

    Just goes to show how difficult it is to win a general election after 10 years of your party in power. In the last 200 years, only John Major and Lord Liverpool have managed it
    I'd written a response to your post ponting out your error, but @SeaShantyIrish2 beat me to it.

    My post would have ended with 'This does of course tend to strengthen your argument, but I will be interested to see if you admit your mistake this time.'

    The answer would appear to be 'no.' You said 'party in power.' The Unionists had only been in power for five years in 1900.

    Out of curiosity what would it take for you to admit a mistake?

    Edit - although I note you do use the word 'apologies' before trying to downplay your error.
    Of course that error ironically strengthened my argument.

    Liverpool and Major being the only PMs in the last 200 years ever to have won a general election after 10 years of their party in power. Indeed Major being the only PM to have won a general election after 10 years of their party in power since the 1832 Reform Act
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    edited February 2022
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MISTY said:

    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    On the polls - there was definitely a swing back to the Conservatives as partygate faded in resonance. Once back in the spotlight it's clear the polls are going back to Labour. FWIW I think they will swing again but not by enough to save the Tories as long as Boris remains. His time is up and he needs to go. No amount of HYUFD's dodgy poll analysis can alter that. If he goes then it's all to play for as Starmer is currently the 'lucky general' benefiting from Boris's lunacy wrt flouting the covid regs. It really is not very complicated and I agree with Leon it is now truly boring and needs to end.

    Of course Boris is in Ukraine this afternoon.

    If Putin invaded Ukraine next week partygate would be forgotten within a week.
    Precisely.

    Nobody is going to forget soaring gas prices and the highest tax rates in 70 years though. Not now. Not for a generation.

    Behold your tories.
    That is also Sunak's Tories, so replacing Boris does not suddenly lead to a Tory win.

    Only time a PM has won a general election since universal suffrage in 1918 after 10 years of their party in power was Major in 1992 and he had a big policy difference with Thatcher on the poll tax which he scrapped
    You quite often play this game. By saying "since 1918" the suggestion you make is that it's common to have ten years in power.

    My assumption is you're not counting 1918 itself or 1945 as cases of trying to save an election by changing a leader - neither Lloyd-George nor Churchill had won the previous election as party leader but were longstanding war PMs. One won (in a fashion), the other lost.

    So you're left with: (i) 1964 - which in all fairness Douglas-Home very nearly pulled it off from an incredibly difficult position; (ii) 1992 - the "exception" proving your supposed "rule"; and (iii) 2010 - which Brown lost by about the amount of the Tory lead before he took it on (albeit the financial crisis was a pretty big element, defining his Premiership).

    So you invent these political "laws" by spinning the thinnest of evidence. In fact, you're looking at three data points with mixed messages, aren't you?
    Churchill also lost in 1945 after 14 years of the Tories in power.

    In 1918 the Liberals lost after 12 years in power, even the combined total of Asquith's Liberals and Lloyd George's National Liberals was less than the 379 Tory MPs Bonar Law won. Even if Lloyd George stayed PM it was a Tory dominated government.

    In fact you have to go back to Lord Salisbury's win in 1900 after 14 years of Tory rule (BigG remembers it well) to find the last time a PM won a general election after 10 years of their party in power pre Major 1992
    Re: last para, this is factually incorrect (or "wrong" in plain English) as it totally ignores period from 15 August 1892 through 22 June 1895 when Liberal Party governed, first under Gladstone's last administration then under Lord Rosebery's first (and only).

    So Lord Salisbury's victory in Khaki Election of 1900 came after just five years in power NOT fourteen.

    And thus "last time a PM won a general election after 10 years of their party in power pre Major 1992" was in 1826, when Lord Liverpool secured his 4th consecutive general election triumph, thus continuing Tory rule that had begun in 1807 thru to 1831 general election which was won by Whigs.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_Kingdom_general_elections
    You are partly right apologies in that the Liberals were in power after the 1892 election until 1895.

    However the Conservatives did still win most seats in the 1892 general election, 314 to 272 for Gladstone's Liberals.

    Salisbury did not initially resign and in the end Gladstone formed a minority government propped up by the Irish Nationalists and was succeeded by Lord Rosebery as PM in 1894. Salisbury's Tories then won an overall majority at the 1895 general election.

    Just goes to show how difficult it is to win a general election after 10 years of your party in power. In the last 200 years, only John Major and Lord Liverpool have managed it
    I note you do use the word 'apologies' before trying to downplay your error
    Who does that remind you of?

    A fish rots from the head down.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373
    edited February 2022
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MISTY said:

    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    On the polls - there was definitely a swing back to the Conservatives as partygate faded in resonance. Once back in the spotlight it's clear the polls are going back to Labour. FWIW I think they will swing again but not by enough to save the Tories as long as Boris remains. His time is up and he needs to go. No amount of HYUFD's dodgy poll analysis can alter that. If he goes then it's all to play for as Starmer is currently the 'lucky general' benefiting from Boris's lunacy wrt flouting the covid regs. It really is not very complicated and I agree with Leon it is now truly boring and needs to end.

    Of course Boris is in Ukraine this afternoon.

    If Putin invaded Ukraine next week partygate would be forgotten within a week.
    Precisely.

    Nobody is going to forget soaring gas prices and the highest tax rates in 70 years though. Not now. Not for a generation.

    Behold your tories.
    That is also Sunak's Tories, so replacing Boris does not suddenly lead to a Tory win.

    Only time a PM has won a general election since universal suffrage in 1918 after 10 years of their party in power was Major in 1992 and he had a big policy difference with Thatcher on the poll tax which he scrapped
    You quite often play this game. By saying "since 1918" the suggestion you make is that it's common to have ten years in power.

    My assumption is you're not counting 1918 itself or 1945 as cases of trying to save an election by changing a leader - neither Lloyd-George nor Churchill had won the previous election as party leader but were longstanding war PMs. One won (in a fashion), the other lost.

    So you're left with: (i) 1964 - which in all fairness Douglas-Home very nearly pulled it off from an incredibly difficult position; (ii) 1992 - the "exception" proving your supposed "rule"; and (iii) 2010 - which Brown lost by about the amount of the Tory lead before he took it on (albeit the financial crisis was a pretty big element, defining his Premiership).

    So you invent these political "laws" by spinning the thinnest of evidence. In fact, you're looking at three data points with mixed messages, aren't you?
    Churchill also lost in 1945 after 14 years of the Tories in power.

    In 1918 the Liberals lost after 12 years in power, even the combined total of Asquith's Liberals and Lloyd George's National Liberals was less than the 379 Tory MPs Bonar Law won. Even if Lloyd George stayed PM it was a Tory dominated government.

    In fact you have to go back to Lord Salisbury's win in 1900 after 14 years of Tory rule (BigG remembers it well) to find the last time a PM won a general election after 10 years of their party in power pre Major 1992
    Re: last para, this is factually incorrect (or "wrong" in plain English) as it totally ignores period from 15 August 1892 through 22 June 1895 when Liberal Party governed, first under Gladstone's last administration then under Lord Rosebery's first (and only).

    So Lord Salisbury's victory in Khaki Election of 1900 came after just five years in power NOT fourteen.

    And thus "last time a PM won a general election after 10 years of their party in power pre Major 1992" was in 1826, when Lord Liverpool secured his 4th consecutive general election triumph, thus continuing Tory rule that had begun in 1807 thru to 1831 general election which was won by Whigs.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_Kingdom_general_elections
    You are partly right apologies in that the Liberals were in power after the 1892 election until 1895.

    However the Conservatives did still win most seats in the 1892 general election, 314 to 272 for Gladstone's Liberals.

    Salisbury did not initially resign and in the end Gladstone formed a minority government propped up by the Irish Nationalists and was succeeded by Lord Rosebery as PM in 1894. Salisbury's Tories then won an overall majority at the 1895 general election.

    Just goes to show how difficult it is to win a general election after 10 years of your party in power. In the last 200 years, only John Major and Lord Liverpool have managed it
    I'd written a response to your post ponting out your error, but @SeaShantyIrish2 beat me to it.

    My post would have ended with 'This does of course tend to strengthen your argument, but I will be interested to see if you admit your mistake this time.'

    The answer would appear to be 'no.' You said 'party in power.' The Unionists had only been in power for five years in 1900.

    Out of curiosity what would it take for you to admit a mistake?

    Edit - although I note you do use the word 'apologies' before trying to downplay your error.
    Of course that error ironically strengthened my argument.

    Liverpool and Major being the only PMs in the last 200 years ever to have won a general election after 10 years of their party in power. Indeed Major being the only PM to have won a general election after 10 years of their party in power since the 1832 Reform Act
    Well, yes - which is why I am baffled that you still tried to qualify your withdrawal. It was an error. An understandable one for somebody who's not an expert, and not even a significant one, but still an error.

    So why did you go into a long rant about the party strengths in 1892 instead of just admitting it?

    (Edit - incidentally the Tories were second to the Liberals in 1892, by one seat. They held an overall lead because the 45 Liberal Unionists, still a separate party until 1912, had said they would continue to offer support to Salisbury ahead of Gladstone.)
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,572
    RobD said:

    My ex-colleagues WhatsApp group is agog at the £8.5bn written off on non-delivered or non-compliant PPE.

    Remember that PPE contracts were awarded to Tories with no record in procuring PPE without tender or clauses requiring delivery of actual goods fit for purpose. As well as Liar presiding over a pissed-up Downing Street and endlessly lying to parliament, he has also presided over brazen and open corruption.

    And certain people still defend *that*

    Most of that was actually due to the price being inflated, not due to non-delivery or non-compliance. Who'd have thunk it when there was a made scramble for PPE going on.
    There were two options: not getting any PPE in time, and paying whatever the market wanted for a very limited and suddenly in-demand resource.

    The government chose the latter. It seems many of the people who were screaming about the lack of PPE in April/May 2020 are now screeching about its cost.

    That is not to excuse fraud where it has happened, but the idea that the cost of PPE was not going to be extortionate during that period is fanciful. The government did everything it could to get the PPE kit - remember somebody from Labour standing up and showing a list of 'suppliers' (some bogus) that they claimed had not been contacted?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    O/T

    "The driver who mowed down and killed a man who had just stabbed his ex-partner to death in the street in Maida Vale has been released without charge. The Metropolitan Police said that investigators had reviewed the law around self-defence and defence of another, and now considered the 26-year-old "a vital witness" rather than a suspect."

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/driver-ran-down-leon-mccaskre-after-killed-yasmin-chkaifi-released-by-met-police-b980044.html
  • ydoethur said:

    I just don't understand how Johnson is not going to have to resign when he is fined for attending parties that he clearly and explicitly told Parliament did not happen.

    It was a clear lie.

    He can only stay if the convention and ministerial code about lying to the Commons is over and finished.

    Tory MPs should bear in mind where that takes the country and our democracy.

    They should close their eyes and imagine that Corbyn and his fellow travellers had won a GE and could lie at the despatch box as much as they like.

    Perhaps we should remember it was the coverup that did for Nixon, not the break in. In fact, for many years there was no conclusive evidence to show he had ordered or even knew about the break in (although we all knew he did, of course).

    However, one point does quite alarm me. Is it true the Met has said they will not name any individuals who are fined over lockdown breaches in this case? Not only does that run counter to the police's previous practice where they've named several people even when they had been cleared, but this was on public property. Don't we as the public have a right to know who's been breaking laws in our houses?
    Yes, I did wonder about the keeping the names quiet bit. I am pretty sure the student in Nottingham was named when he got hit with a £10k fine for a house party with cakes.

    Not sure about the public property bit though. These are Crown properties aren't they?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,908
    edited February 2022
    I
    kinabalu said:

    Apparently Starmer wouldn't be getting smeared if we had all learned to love Jezza.

    "Owen Jones
    @OwenJones84
    Here's the thing. A lot of people didn't speak out loudly about, say, Jeremy Corbyn being falsely portrayed as a Czech spy because they didn't like the guy.

    But in doing so, they helped normalise a right-wing smear machine, and well, here we are guys!"

    That just looks to me like a perfectly valid and relevant observation from Jones.
    Sounds a bit paranoid. I thought Ed Miliband was the most smeared Labour leader. Corbyn never had a chance after three quarters of his own MPs voted against him and they weren't reacting to smears
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373

    ydoethur said:

    I just don't understand how Johnson is not going to have to resign when he is fined for attending parties that he clearly and explicitly told Parliament did not happen.

    It was a clear lie.

    He can only stay if the convention and ministerial code about lying to the Commons is over and finished.

    Tory MPs should bear in mind where that takes the country and our democracy.

    They should close their eyes and imagine that Corbyn and his fellow travellers had won a GE and could lie at the despatch box as much as they like.

    Perhaps we should remember it was the coverup that did for Nixon, not the break in. In fact, for many years there was no conclusive evidence to show he had ordered or even knew about the break in (although we all knew he did, of course).

    However, one point does quite alarm me. Is it true the Met has said they will not name any individuals who are fined over lockdown breaches in this case? Not only does that run counter to the police's previous practice where they've named several people even when they had been cleared, but this was on public property. Don't we as the public have a right to know who's been breaking laws in our houses?
    Yes, I did wonder about the keeping the names quiet bit. I am pretty sure the student in Nottingham was named when he got hit with a £10k fine for a house party with cakes.

    Not sure about the public property bit though. These are Crown properties aren't they?
    Or the woman in Derbyshire, later cleared?

    On your second paragraph, no. The official owner is the Secretary of State concerned:

    https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/519016/response/1246876/attach/3/FOI326844 REPLY.pdf?cookie_passthrough=1

  • Iain Martin
    @iainmartin1
    Johnson taking mad risk humiliating chief whip who could do him in. (The Hound on Reaction
    @reactionlife
    )

    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1488576446075490307
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373
    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    "The driver who mowed down and killed a man who had just stabbed his ex-partner to death in the street in Maida Vale has been released without charge. The Metropolitan Police said that investigators had reviewed the law around self-defence and defence of another, and now considered the 26-year-old "a vital witness" rather than a suspect."

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/driver-ran-down-leon-mccaskre-after-killed-yasmin-chkaifi-released-by-met-police-b980044.html

    Well, that's good, but actually it was right he should be treated as a suspect at first if only so he could be given proper cautions, protections and legal counsel. Bearing in mind, he had just deliberately killed somebody. Yes, we could all see he had good reasons and I've no doubt the police could too, but suppose he had turned out to be a husband/boyfriend of one of the dead people?

    I am as fervent as anyone except possibly @Cyclefree in my disdain for the police, but I think they did this one the right way round.
This discussion has been closed.