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Johnson’s lockdown gift to Starmer – politicalbetting.com
Johnson’s lockdown gift to Starmer – politicalbetting.com
Take a look at the chart above and what you are seeing is something that is very unusual in British politics. For it is very rare indeed for the Opposition leader to poll significantly higher than the incumbent at Number 10 on the question of who would make the best prime minister.
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https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1488218034020007938?s=20&t=U92lqkAxTXx_vrO4ja-UwQ
So merely a change of leader by the Tories will not be enough for them to win another majority at the next general election. That is especially given few policy differences between Sunak and Boris, unlike the policy differences on Brexit between Boris and May or on the poll tax between Thatcher and Major when the Tories changing PM midterm did put them back in the lead and see them win the next general election.
Unless Labour gets a clear and consistent 10%+ lead in most polls, which it still does not have and the Tories turn to Sunak to save the furniture then I suspect Boris will stay. Unless there are criminal charges against him from the Met once their inquiry concludes
But history is only a guide to the future and for Red Wall seats I would look at Redcar in 2010 to 2015 to see the likely result in the 2023/4 election - fail to deliver on what you promised in 2019 and chances are you aren't going to get a second chance.
https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-should-quit-force-26105149?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar
#JohnsonOut8 International laughing stock https://twitter.com/dietiea/status/1488434137249763329
Dutch newspaper today: ‘Some animals are more equal than other animals’ … ‘Let’s talk about Ukraine’ https://twitter.com/dietiea/status/1488434137249763329/photo/1
Starmer as next PM is where the value is.
Approve: 25.7% (-2.4)
Disapprove: 60.1% (+3.2)
NET: -34.4% (-5.6)
Changes w/ Dec 2021. https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1488474554813067264/photo/1
If Sunak suddenly becomes PM do you not think that unshackled from Boris’ “vision” his policies could be vastly different - maybe for the better or the worse but it seems like you use these polls to buttress your belief that Boris must not go - “see, the polls say it wouldn’t change anything so best we stick with Boris”.
These polls are not stuck in aspic and so I think it’s a false comfort blanket to Boris supporters but also dangerous as it holds back the chance of much needed change if there are too many Tory MPs with this “thought” process.
Boris should stand for re-election, put his vision to the test against other visions and see what happens if he believes he’s the best man for the job…..
If the members had picked Murdo Fraser rather than Ruth Davidson as leader and split off from the London-based party when things were quiet, they'd be insulated.
Now, if they split off, they're basically admitting that the SNP were right all along to demand independence from Westminster and the UK. Edit: and some other truly Unionist party will be along in a moment to siphon off some of the vote. In fact there's already one - Ms Ballantyne's lot.
But if they don't, they'll be competing with Slab for third place.
How to resolve that, I have no idea.
PS. It didn't take a genius to realise Corbyn was a loser.
As I said, there is not a tissue paper of difference policy wise between them
I had to look twice when I saw this headline about a Churchill impersonator being ijnterviewed on GB News even though they knew he wasn't the real thing.
There is, however, one additional fact to add to the idea that Starmer won't reach the same lead levels as Blair. This is probably true. BUT, and it's a big but ... in 1997 the British economy was in rude health and that did nothing to staunch the tory wound, thus disproving the notion that it's all about the economy.
In two years time every indication is that the UK economy and people's finances will be in a very tough state. Indeed, we don't have to wait two years. It's happening now.
• Colour me x
• It's a view
• Irregular verbs
• Dockside
• First
• I'm no Trump supporter, but
• War with France
I'm really tired of an entertainer trying to govern us. He should bugger off to tread the boards, where he belongs.
He is however clearly Mr Clean in terms of personal integrity. Johnsonites seem determined to believe that he has skeletons in every closet, yet each time they look they find nothing.
Verboten.
Anabobazina
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Thanks.
Portillo, the Sunak of his day at the end of the last Tory government, stayed in Cabinet and refused to stand against Major
I’d add +1 and this. Use the like button if you agree with something someone has said.
2015 - having failed to solve the issue he quit rather than stand for re-election - and the Lib Dems almost came 3rd.
https://twitter.com/cathynewman/status/1488482520375177218
If the SCons don’t find a spine after the current Tory degeneration, they never will.
It doesn’t mean however that you agree with the CEO about what direction the bank should take once the recovery plan kicks in. The CEO might think that the way forward is opening millions of branches in new locations (levelling up) , banning paper in the office (green agenda), spending millions on a rebranding and advertising campaign (general shit) is the best action after recovery but you might think “actually, no - I think we would be better spending the money on a brilliant tech platform that’s more future proof (your view of levelling up using funds better), investing in zero carbon start-ups (green agenda) and changing the work pension scheme and working hours (general shit).
The thing is - you aren’t CEO so whilst you and he agree on certain fundamental issues you both have different visions of what to do once the major issues have been sorted with regard to future bank strategy and as you are just the CFO it’s not your call and therefore it’s fair to say that if the CEO was replaced and you were promoted to CEO then you might be able to implement your vision even if it shared certain initial components with the old boss - but as it stands you need to work and manage your area in conjunction with the strategy imposed from above as best you can.
@stephenkb on how Johnson is contaminating his potential successors. https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/conservatives/2022/02/boris-johnsons-toxicity-has-an-upside-it-damages-his-potential-successors
Boring - but maybe there is now an appetite for boring.
Not great at politics - but getting better.
Not great at speaking - but again, getting better.
Willing to serve in Corbyn's cabinet. Not sure this has a mitigating factor.
Didn't come out of the referendum cleanly - but is trying to reposition himself on that.
None of this really seems to be enough to outweigh 'locked down the whole country and then held a series of parties' - which uniquely manages to alienate both the covid hawks AND the covid doves.
Personally my main problem with SKS is that he has been habitually wrong on covid - always calling for slightly more restrictions, especially just as cases start to decline; critical of the government's go-it-alone approach on vaccines. But on balance I would expect "would have made you more miserable but would have shared your misery" is probably an electoral plus.
Even before being in government Sunak backed Leave just like Boris anyway. Plenty of Cabinet Ministers have resigned over policy differences, Heseltine, Robin Cook or indeed Boris himself for example.
As I said there is no policy difference of any significance at all between Boris and Sunak
They have to seize the crown in this case.
In answer the the main thrust of your argument, I think Johnson poses a massive threat to all Tories, North and South of the border. HYUFD loftily waves away my criticism, but I was a Tory voter for most of my adult life and an activist for over 10 years and I think that if someone like me won't vote for them they have a serious, serious problem.
https://twitter.com/_CaitlinDoherty/status/1488477376879210498
the prime minister’s spokesman has just said Downing St may never admit if anyone working there - including the prime minister - gets a fixed penalty fine from the police over partygate
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1488486531073548289
Do you know that they both have the same foreign policy views?
Do you know that they have the same welfare/social policy views?
Do you know they have the same views on defence policy?
Do you know that they have the same policy views on healthcare and the NHS?
Do you know if they have the same policies on policing and the legal system?
Do you know if they have the same policies on transport infrastructure?
Do you know if they have the same policies on education?
Just start with these and please let me know where I can read their policies where they have laid them out personally in public so I can see why you are so certain that there are no significant policy differences between them?
Thank you.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orkney_and_Shetland_Movement
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/boris-johnson-keir-starmer-partygate-jimmy-savile_uk_61f90e4fe4b02de5f51ddca7
Not that I support the lunacy of a regional assembly or the becrazed daftness of separation, but as it's being discussed thought the comparison apt.
And, of course, both realms are known for having tightfisted inhabitants.
Starmer would be closer to the EU abroad, would spend more on welfare and social policy and even more on the NHS. Starmer would impose a wealth tax and increase income tax on higher earners. Starmer would likely renationalise much of the remaining rail network and Starmer would also seek to move away from free schools so fewer schools can move outside the LEA and be self governing.
However there would likely be not a single difference between a Boris and Sunak government of any significance on those areas. There would be significant differences between a Boris or Sunak and Starmer government however
However, on a scale of 1-10 I suspect we're in very low digits in both places!
I guess after Storm Corrie, this is Storm Eastenders.
There could be vital small differences between them that make a massive difference in the long run - for example on levelling up where Boris might see it as “build big things” whilst Sunak is seeing it as “attract investment through incentives”. They both are trying to level up but both routes are fundamentally different with different outcomes but it’s not possible for Sunak to over-ride Boris and impose his preferred approach.
Unless or until there was a leadership election we cannot know if there is a better route forward due to these smaller but crucial differences but you seem to take it as blind faith that they have the same policies and therefore because of current polling you seem to suggest Boris may as well just stay on.
If we really wanted to oppress the SNP we would follow the Spanish route and not only ban indyref2 but arrest Sturgeon too, suspend Holyrood and impose UK government direct rule on Scotland
Differences are somewhat concealed in a Cabinet system because, once agreed, the Cabinet line is a collective one. However, for a start, it's pretty obvious that Sunak is substantially more hawkish on fiscal matters, which would have a major impact on several of those areas.
On matters like foreign, defence, and the legal system we simply don't hear from Sunak (unsurprisingly). You casually assert there would be no difference, but I'm not sure you have any evidence for that whatsoever other than your usual breezy non-logic along the lines "Conservatism is what Conservatives do - always has been, always will be. I've always been a Conservative and always will, so am in favour of that".
Successive PMs from the same party do differ in practice on important points - some clear from the outset, others not. That would be no different here. Clearly, both Sunak and Johnson are longstanding Conservative members so share certain core views. But there is nothing in what we know of their backgrounds, characters and personal styles that suggest for a moment that they are cut from precisely the same cloth.
Can I strongly encourage you to actually learn a bit about the phenomenon of nationalism? It's really a lot more interesting than you think, and a well-rounded view of it would take in not just the variants you seem focused on.
A good place to start would be a detailed exploration of the (failed) revolutions of 1848. It's really hard to read through those without having at least a little sympathy with the nationalist elements. Nationalism was more than just a "rallying point". In my view it was an essential curative to not just the continental empires of the day, but as a binding force that was needed to overcome the ideological terrors. When caught between the prongs of conservative absolutism and proto-socialist unrest, some of the liberals of the day turned to nationalism to try to cement the democratic reforms and keep order.
In my reading, these were largely the good guys of the period, and though they lost they set in train a number of important reforms. The elevation of Hungary from province to an equal with Austria, the binding together of Italy and the removal of the Pope's absolutist secular authority, the ending of the Roman-style use of cross provincial soldier-police forces. These were the genies that nationalism let out of the bottle that, by the end of the century, had markedly improved the lives of the people.
It's not all a one-way street of nationalism = Nazis = bad. It's a lot more of a mixed bag than you are willing to admit.
Well that would be the final nail in the coffin of the Tory MPs who won their seats in the redwall from Labour under Boris in 2019 then. Redwall voters are certainly not hawkish on fiscal matters!
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/feb/01/uk-housing-market-strongest-start-average-price-nationwide
“Indeed, the total number of property transactions in 2021 was the highest since 2007 and around 25% higher than in 2019, before the pandemic struck. At the same time, the stock of homes on estate agents’ books has remained extremely low, which is contributing to the continued robust pace of house price growth.”
Gardner noted that house price growth had outpaced wage growth by a wide margin since the coronavirus pandemic struck. For example, a 10% deposit on a typical first-time buyer home is now equivalent to 56% of total gross annual earnings, a record high. Similarly, a typical mortgage payment as a share of take-home pay is now above the long-run average despite mortgage rates remaining close to all-time lows.