Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview: January 16th 2014

2»

Comments

  • Options
    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    (cont.) Finally there's a very good reason you don't set up big hostages to fortune with the endless political positioning Osbrowne can't help himself doing.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bR_hfQU-4r0
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Mick_Pork said:


    Cost of living crisis will be their response and always would be since real voters don't give a flying f*** about economic stats.

    "Quoted for truth", as they say.

    I'm always baffled by how people in the Westminster bubble don't realise that most people just don't CARE about the deficit. The idea that everything that happens in our country should be decided purely for the sake of keeping a spreadsheet tidy and satisfying global investors cuts no ice with people (and I would suggest is one of the factors fuelling UKIP, people are making a generic protest against Establishment Politicians deciding on the basis of statistics or nominal economic growth despite how much they screw over normal British people, even though in this case that probably seems counterintuitive since UKIP are still quite fiscally conservative, atleast for now).
  • Options
    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Broadheath is Labour gain Lab 1377 Con 1258 UKIP 234 LD 150 Green 67
  • Options
    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    Broadheath is Labour gain Lab 1377 Con 1258 UKIP 234 LD 150 Green 67

    Is it a Labour 'Gain' - the last election results in 2012 (above) show Labour winning the seat.

    LAB: 44.6%
    CON: 40.8%
    UKIP: 7.6%

    Swing (If I am right) 1.6% LAB -> CON

  • Options
    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    Broadheath (Trafford MDC) Result:
    LAB - 44.6% (-1.7)
    CON - 40.8% (+1.8)
    UKIP - 7.6% (+1.4)
    LDem - 4.9% (+0.6)
    GRN - 2.2% (-2.2)
  • Options
    saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245

    Broadheath is Labour gain Lab 1377 Con 1258 UKIP 234 LD 150 Green 67

    A preview of the impact voting kipper in 2015, which will likely see Miliband move into number 10.

  • Options
    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    What may be interesting is the very low UKIP swing. Does this suggest that the KIPPERS will endeavour to keep Labour out in the marginals?
  • Options
    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited January 2014
    Danny565 said:

    The idea that everything that happens in our country should be decided purely for the sake of keeping a spreadsheet tidy and satisfying global investors cuts no ice with people (and I would suggest is one of the factors fuelling UKIP, people are making a generic protest against Establishment Politicians deciding on the basis of statistics or nominal economic growth despite how much they screw over normal British people, even though in this case that probably seems counterintuitive since UKIP are still quite fiscally conservative, atleast for now).


    The problem for Farage and the kippers is that cross party support for raising the minimum wage resonates with their voters (as the polling shows) and the current kipper policy on the minimum wage and tax just doesn't. Which isn't to say that Osbrowne's posturing will have them coming back to the tories in droves because it won't. Kippers don't trust Cammie on the EU and after the omnishambles they won't be too keen to give Osbrowne the benefit of the doubt at the EU elections either.

    What will matter though is that after the EU elections the kippers will start their downward slide as 2015 approaches. The 2015 election campaign is going to be primarily focused on the economy one way or another. Whether it's 'cost of living' or 'don't let labour ruin it again', if the best response Farage has is to be against a rise in the minimum wage then he's going to send a great many more disaffected voters back to those parties who are in favour of that.

    Either Farage rethinks his policy on this or it's going to hurt him and the kippers.
    At the EU elections it's going to be immigration and Europe at the forefront so it won't be crucial then. At the general election however it's absolutely going to be the economy.
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,157
    OT VivianeReding tweets:
    #Dataprotection is a competitive advantage. #EU clouds could be particularly attractive w/ the motto 'In the #EU your data is safe' #EUdeb8
    https://mobile.twitter.com/VivianeRedingEU/status/423906821150375936

    At times like this you have to wonder if Brexit wouldn't be better for everyone. How can they bring this off with GHCQ destroying the brand?
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Making Plans For Nigel:

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=vwO4U2vmnmg&amp
  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited January 2014
    Danny565 said:

    Mick_Pork said:


    Cost of living crisis will be their response and always would be since real voters don't give a flying f*** about economic stats.

    "Quoted for truth", as they say.

    I'm always baffled by how people in the Westminster bubble don't realise that most people just don't CARE about the deficit. The idea that everything that happens in our country should be decided purely for the sake of keeping a spreadsheet tidy and satisfying global investors cuts no ice with people (and I would suggest is one of the factors fuelling UKIP, people are making a generic protest against Establishment Politicians deciding on the basis of statistics or nominal economic growth despite how much they screw over normal British people, even though in this case that probably seems counterintuitive since UKIP are still quite fiscally conservative, atleast for now).
    Most people who feel sufficiently ill to warrant a visit to their GP are unable to diagnose the cause of their condition.

    They present themselves to qualified professionals who then carry out a number of diagnostic routines, often supplemented by additional diagnosis carried out by consultants who use highly sophisticated equipment and techniques to measure key medical variables.

    This diagnostic process produce metrics which are understood and interpreted by the professionals. The patients do not need to understand the detail of the metrics but rely on the professionals to inform them in plain language what the problem is and how it should be treated.

    Similarly the vast majorities of voters have little interest in or knowledge of economics. They care not for GDP growth, Inflation Rates, Output Gaps, Employment Statistics etc. It is the professionals who are interested in econometrics. And they can interpret them and diagnose the state of the patient.

    So if economists see the rate of GDP growth increase and Employment rising, for example, they can reasonable safely predict that disposable incomes, employment prospects and consumer confidence will increase for the better.

    Economic metrics are a little more accessible to non-professionals than the output of medical diagnostic tests. This means that the averagely intelligent and interested observer can reach basic conclusions on the economy and their personal financial prospects by taking note of key metrics on the state of the economy as published in the media.

    Not everyone though will be so capable and motivated. But just as GDP, Employment and Income can be measured, so too can household and consumer expectations for their personal finances and employment prospects.

    And all these measures are showing growing confidence in the impact of the economy on their personal position.

    Obvious really, if you care to think about it.

  • Options
    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited January 2014
    AveryLP said:

    Danny565 said:

    Mick_Pork said:


    Cost of living crisis will be their response and always would be since real voters don't give a flying f*** about economic stats.

    "Quoted for truth", as they say.

    I'm always baffled by how people in the Westminster bubble don't realise that most people just don't CARE about the deficit. The idea that everything that happens in our country should be decided purely for the sake of keeping a spreadsheet tidy and satisfying global investors cuts no ice with people (and I would suggest is one of the factors fuelling UKIP, people are making a generic protest against Establishment Politicians deciding on the basis of statistics or nominal economic growth despite how much they screw over normal British people, even though in this case that probably seems counterintuitive since UKIP are still quite fiscally conservative, atleast for now).
    Most people who feel sufficiently ill to warrant a visit to their GP are unable to diagnose the cause of their condition.

    They present themselves to qualified professionals who then carry out a number of diagnostic routines, often supplemented by additional diagnosis carried out by consultants who use highly sophisticated equipment and techniques to measure key medical variables.

    This diagnostic process produce metrics which are understood and interpreted by the professionals. The patients do not need to understand the detail of the metrics but rely on the professionals to inform them in plain language what the problem is and how it should be treated.

    Similarly the vast majorities of voters have little interest in or knowledge of economics. They care not for GDP growth, Inflation Rates, Output Gaps, Employment Statistics etc. It is the professionals who are interested in econometrics. And they can interpret them and diagnose the state of the patient.

    You never will get it Seth O Logue. Though you might pretend it is all "ironic" spinning the fact is being incapable of understanding the public is definitely not an asset and all you ever do is confirm the stereotype of out of touch twits spinning for the tory party.

    You have somehow forgotten which 'professionals' it is presenting (usually contradictory) economic stats as truth at a general election.
    David Wearing ‏@davidwearing Jan 3

    This is always an interesting poll question. Who do you trust? Teachers, trade unions, journalists, politicians... pic.twitter.com/l4f0GB7Ydl
    Obvious really, if you care to think about it.

    :)
  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    saddened said:

    Broadheath is Labour gain Lab 1377 Con 1258 UKIP 234 LD 150 Green 67

    A preview of the impact voting kipper in 2015, which will likely see Miliband move into number 10.

    Nah. That result (in itself) won't worry CCHQ.

    UKIP flaccid.
    Con strong.
    Lab premature.

  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Mick_Pork said:

    AveryLP said:

    Danny565 said:

    Mick_Pork said:


    Cost of living crisis will be their response and always would be since real voters don't give a flying f*** about economic stats.

    "Quoted for truth", as they say.

    I'm always baffled by how people in the Westminster bubble don't realise that most people just don't CARE about the deficit. The idea that everything that happens in our country should be decided purely for the sake of keeping a spreadsheet tidy and satisfying global investors cuts no ice with people (and I would suggest is one of the factors fuelling UKIP, people are making a generic protest against Establishment Politicians deciding on the basis of statistics or nominal economic growth despite how much they screw over normal British people, even though in this case that probably seems counterintuitive since UKIP are still quite fiscally conservative, atleast for now).
    Most people who feel sufficiently ill to warrant a visit to their GP are unable to diagnose the cause of their condition.

    They present themselves to qualified professionals who then carry out a number of diagnostic routines, often supplemented by additional diagnosis carried out by consultants who use highly sophisticated equipment and techniques to measure key medical variables.

    This diagnostic process produce metrics which are understood and interpreted by the professionals. The patients do not need to understand the detail of the metrics but rely on the professionals to inform them in plain language what the problem is and how it should be treated.

    Similarly the vast majorities of voters have little interest in or knowledge of economics. They care not for GDP growth, Inflation Rates, Output Gaps, Employment Statistics etc. It is the professionals who are interested in econometrics. And they can interpret them and diagnose the state of the patient.

    You never will get it Seth O Logue. Though you might pretend it is all "ironic" spinning the fact is being incapable of understanding the public is definitely not an asset and all you ever do is confirm the stereotype of out of touch twits spinning for the tory party.

    You have somehow forgotten which 'professionals' it is presenting (usually contradictory) economic stats as truth at a general election.
    David Wearing ‏@davidwearing Jan 3

    This is always an interesting poll question. Who do you trust? Teachers, trade unions, journalists, politicians... pic.twitter.com/l4f0GB7Ydl
    Obvious really, if you care to think about it.

    :)

    Your chart shows that Doctors are most trusted.

    QED, Pork, QED.

  • Options
    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited January 2014
    "UKIP has... only 12 full-time staff"

    http://www.economist.com/node/21594261/
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,157
    They should buy in some logistical support from the LibDems, they must have surplus capacity right now given the way their market share has dropped.
  • Options
    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited January 2014
    AveryLP said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    AveryLP said:

    Danny565 said:

    Mick_Pork said:


    Cost of living crisis will be their response and always would be since real voters don't give a flying f*** about economic stats.

    "Quoted for truth", as they say.

    I'm always baffled by how people in the Westminster bubble don't realise that most people just don't CARE about the deficit. The idea that everything that happens in our country should be decided purely for the sake of keeping a spreadsheet tidy and satisfying global investors cuts no ice with people (and I would suggest is one of the factors fuelling UKIP, people are making a generic protest against Establishment Politicians deciding on the basis of statistics or nominal economic growth despite how much they screw over normal British people, even though in this case that probably seems counterintuitive since UKIP are still quite fiscally conservative, atleast for now).
    Most people who feel sufficiently ill to warrant a visit to their GP are unable to diagnose the cause of their condition.

    They present themselves to qualified professionals who then carry out a number of diagnostic routines, often supplemented by additional diagnosis carried out by consultants who use highly sophisticated equipment and techniques to measure key medical variables.

    This diagnostic process produce metrics which are understood and interpreted by the professionals. The patients do not need to understand the detail of the metrics but rely on the professionals to inform them in plain language what the problem is and how it should be treated.

    Similarly the vast majorities of voters have little interest in or knowledge of economics. They care not for GDP growth, Inflation Rates, Output Gaps, Employment Statistics etc. It is the professionals who are interested in econometrics. And they can interpret them and diagnose the state of the patient.

    You never will get it Seth O Logue. Though you might pretend it is all "ironic" spinning the fact is being incapable of understanding the public is definitely not an asset and all you ever do is confirm the stereotype of out of touch twits spinning for the tory party.

    You have somehow forgotten which 'professionals' it is presenting (usually contradictory) economic stats as truth at a general election.
    David Wearing ‏@davidwearing Jan 3

    This is always an interesting poll question. Who do you trust? Teachers, trade unions, journalists, politicians... pic.twitter.com/l4f0GB7Ydl
    Obvious really, if you care to think about it.

    :)
    Your chart shows that Doctors are most trusted.

    Precisely and with politicians the least trusted yet you still don't seem to understand why.
    As I said you never will get it Seth O Logue.

  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited January 2014

    They should buy in some logistical support from the LibDems, they must have surplus capacity right now given the way their market share has dropped.
    Rennard may be free. Farage might consider it a small price to pay.

  • Options
    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    They should buy in some logistical support from the LibDems, they must have surplus capacity right now given the way their market share has dropped.
    Quite a few of their female staff might be looking to jump around about now.
  • Options
    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited January 2014
    AndyJS said:

    Making Plans For Nigel:

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=vwO4U2vmnmg&amp

    I don't believe Farage scours PB for policies any more than Osbrowne does, but Farage would be a fool not to take notice of that UKIP voter polling on the minimum wage or not realise that if Osbrowne can u-turn on it he certainly can.
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,157
    Mick_Pork said:

    AndyJS said:

    Making Plans For Nigel:

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=vwO4U2vmnmg&amp

    I don't believe Farage scours PB for policies any more than Osbrowne does, but Farage would be a fool not to take notice of that UKIP voter polling on the minimum wage or not realise that if Osbrowne can u-turn on it he certainly can.
    I doubt he needs to. Small parties don't get much attention so they can survive having unpopular policies, especially if they can turn the conversation around to something where they do have a popular policy.
  • Options
    Please could someone explain to me how this is a Labour Gain, as looking through the 2012 figures above, it seems to be a Labour Hold to me. Thanks
  • Options
    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @Corrinne

    It was one of the Conservative seats won in an earlier year that was up for election.
  • Options
    Thanks Neil
  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Corrinne said:

    Please could someone explain to me how this is a Labour Gain, as looking through the 2012 figures above, it seems to be a Labour Hold to me. Thanks

    Welcome to PB, Corinne.

    A Labour hold would certainly fit my interpretation of the result.

    But I fear neither Andrea di Parma nor Mark Senior appear to be awake.

    Neil might know. He is a good fellow, if a little sarcastic.

  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    My predictions are always right!
  • Options
    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited January 2014

    Mick_Pork said:

    AndyJS said:

    Making Plans For Nigel:

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=vwO4U2vmnmg&amp

    I don't believe Farage scours PB for policies any more than Osbrowne does, but Farage would be a fool not to take notice of that UKIP voter polling on the minimum wage or not realise that if Osbrowne can u-turn on it he certainly can.
    I doubt he needs to. Small parties don't get much attention so they can survive having unpopular policies, especially if they can turn the conversation around to something where they do have a popular policy.
    The kippers will be getting plenty of attention at the EU elections but come the general election they won't be turning the conversation to immigration or Europe again in a hurry with the economy dominating. Unless the tories start running around like headless chickens again. Which is fairly likely admittedly.

    It was also Osbrowne's omnishambles that really kickstarted the kippers away from 5% and saw disillusioned tories start to peel off from the tory party in ever increasing numbers.

    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png

    Just because Farage and the kippers are weakest away from their core issues doesn't mean they can't have populist policies on them. After all, who on earth among the low paid will be inclined to actually believe Osbrowne on a minimum wage unless it actually happens?
    Farage does have an appeal to the disaffected even if it is mainly on immigration. (and the EU partially too) The polling shows that man in the pub with a pint would like to see Farage adopt the minimum wage rise. So what is the downside for the kippers if they did so?

    They have plenty of other policy areas to be unpopular on if they choose to. Why would they choose to though? Farage is hardly going to be against populist posturing if he can help it.

    I also can't help but notice that Clegg and the lib dems didn't seem to do too well after their unpopular policy on tuition fees. So it's all a matter of what the public chooses to care about from small parties.
  • Options
    Corrinne said:

    Please could someone explain to me how this is a Labour Gain, as looking through the 2012 figures above, it seems to be a Labour Hold to me. Thanks

    Corinne - Trafford council elects by thirds and so the wards has 3 councillors elected in 2010, 2011 and 2012. While the 2012 councillor is Labour, this election is replacing one of the Con councillors who died hence a Lab gain.
  • Options
    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    edited January 2014
    @Avery

    Sarcastic? How dare you!

    Only during the day, not late at night.
  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited January 2014
    Neil said:

    @Avery

    Sarcastic? How dare you!

    Only during the day, not late at night.

    Please don't take it personally, Neil.

    I am duty bound to speak.

    I hold a Royal Warrant as a Purveyor of Truth.

  • Options
    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @Avery

    Too late, you're off my list of friends and on my list of enemies!
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,157
    edited January 2014
    @Mick_Pork UKIP may get some attention but the detail of most of their policies won't, especially when the main parties agree so there's nothing about it on the media's grid.
  • Options
    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited January 2014

    @Mick_Pork UKIP may get some attention but the detail of most of their policies won't, especially when the main policies agree so there's nothing about it on the media's grid.

    The tories and labour will put it on their grid. Leaflets and press releases saying Farage is against raising the minimum wage. Easy to understand and directly targeting the low paid and disaffected. Osbrowne hardly did this just to annoy Vince Cable after all.

    It's certainly not going to kill the kipper vote - or likely even put much of a dent in it for the EU elections - but since neither labour or the tories can outkip the kippers it gives them something to use against them that cuts through all the usual economic fluff.
    It also moves the conversation away from kipper core issues which should be the tory and labour leadership's preferred strategy rather than trying to outbid the kippers when they must know they can't. It also depends on the voter just how small or large they think this policy is. The low paid won't think it trivial for a start and that's a big pool of voters from which Farage is happily dipping away as they grow increasingly disaffected.

    Will it matter to Farage and the kippers as much as immigration? Nope. The question is does Farage want to be vulnerable on the minimum wage or try to put out more populist policies on areas other than immigration? It's his choice.
  • Options
    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    It's conventional to compare a council by-election change with the last time the deceased/resigning councillor contested the ward, even if intervening elections have occurred....
  • Options
    JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    (Two threads ago)
    Pulpstar said:

    I'd suggest the odds of an UNMARRIED French president having an affair were 'slightly' higher than the Queen. And our head of state has no economic governing function. Obviously if God Rest their soul Will, Charles and Liz fell under a bus tomorrow then it wouldn't really come to anyone's surprise if King Henry IX was off continuing the 'traditions' of the previous King Henry...

    Prince Harry would be the Prince Regent. The King would be George VII; he can be relied on to continue the calm and popular manner of the reign of George VI.
This discussion has been closed.