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The future of Johnson dominates the Friday front pages – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited January 2022 in General
imageThe future of Johnson dominates the Friday front pages – politicalbetting.com

There is little doubt that Downing Street has mounted a big operation in the past couple of days to stop a no-confidence move against the Prime Minister. As we all know party managers are tasked with ensuring that 54 CON MPs don’t request a confidence ballot and we have no idea what the current totals are.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    On topic. But not all papers are leading on it. Express, Mail, Telegraph lead on other things.

    how do we understand the reasoning for Conservative newspapers being so solid behind Boris, when the last thing they should want to see is a Labour government? They must be thinking, he can come back from this, reinvent and rebuild enough to still reach parts others can’t reach, in the only election that matters?

    For certain, whatever the report says, we won’t have wall to wall condemnation across the press that evening - Mail, Express, Sun will still be cheerleading for him to stay, with Telegraph and Times not far behind. With all that still in place it just doesn’t feel over does it?
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,435
    Second, I reckon the papers would like to see this drag out...I still think people are pixxy amd will remember... the mere mention of Barnard Castle and DM being a good example
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    Second, I reckon the papers would like to see this drag out...I still think people are pixxy amd will remember... the mere mention of Barnard Castle and DM being a good example

    I understand what you are saying, but question of degrees isn’t it when it comes to a general election two years away, will tainted old rouge Boris, who struggles to admit mistakes, still command a lot of votes others can’t reach? He got Brexit done, got covid done ahead of the rest of the planet, begun levelling up. It will tick a lot of boxes.

    My take on it, they have tried a putsch and failed, it’s hit too much stubborn resistance for Boris on the back benches, in cabinet and throughout the Conservative press hadn’t it? With Boris to get 200+ votes in a vonc, it’s stalemate isn’t it, they can’t call vonc.

    This standoff could go on for very long time. May elections? These things are as much art of spin than winning them mid term? Is it your turf this time or theirs, have you a greater or lesser vulnerability? What defines a wipe out or bad night? The leadership will spin not nearly the predicted wipe out, it’s all part of the Johnson recovery! As expected mid term, tough decisions taken. Nothing to see here. Building towards General Election. And the media narrative will move on in hours. Tell me I’m wrong.

    This standoff, where they can’t vonc because they don’t have the winning numbers on back bench’s, no support from cabinet, and the press turning on rebels and backing Boris, could go on a long time. In fact the most likelihood in Boris recovery, letters are withdrawn not added.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    🥱 what a load of rubbish.

    Night 🙋‍♀️
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    - “The big question is whether Johnson can pull back before disenchanted CON MPs muster the courage to get their 54 letters in.”

    I disagree. I don’t think that courage, or lack thereof, has got anything to do with it. It is all to do with timing. May is going to be a Tory bloodbath and that is sub-optimal for the incoming leader.

    My judgement call is that Johnson cannot pull back, because he has no plan, no compass. Not talking about his lack of moral compass, but his political one.

    To pull back Johnson needs:

    1. Clear objectives, preferably achievable within 2 years
    2. A unified party
    3. No more own goals

    If 1 exists, he’d better start selling it pronto. Needless to say, the environment for such a sales push is dreadful: once-sympathetic people have stopped listening (ask Scottish Labour how that feels.) “Levelling-up” takes 2 decades, at least, so is a non-starter, even if Johnson knew how to do it, and he doesn’t.

    He can forget about 2. He has angered far too many Conservatives, notably the entire parliamentary group in Edinburgh and Redwall MPs.

    Regarding 3: bitter, bitter experience ought to have taught Conservatives that there is *always* capacity for Johnson to keep just digging. It is what he does.

    One or two of these points is insufficient. He needs 3 out of 3. The ball is at your feet Mr Johnson. Are you fit for fight?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited January 2022
    First Scottish voting intention poll of 2022 is by Savanta ComRes for the Scotsman (14-18 January; sample size=1,004)

    The only statistically significant change from their last poll, in October, is a 4 point drop in SCon VI for the regional list vote, enough to cost several MSPs their jobs, as nearly all the parliamentary group come from the lists.

    It is notable that VI in Scotland remains steady and predictable, whereas we have seen huge changes in VI in England, N Ireland and Wales. The Union rarely marches in step these days.

    Voting intention - Constituency vote

    SNP 47% (-1)
    SLab 22% (nc)
    SCon 19% (-1)
    SLD 8% (+1)
    oth 4% (+1)

    Voting intention - Regional lists

    SNP 38% (nc)
    SLab 20% (nc)
    SCon 18% (-4)
    Grn 12% (+1)
    SLD 9% (+2)
    Alba 2% (+1)
    oth 1% (nc)

    Voting intention - Independence

    Yes 50% (+2)
    No 50% (-2)

    Douglas Ross has played a blinder. As the English Tories sink like a stone, the wily football linesman keeps the Unionists’ heads above water.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,770
    Wait.

    Boris Johnson has a future?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,770

    First Scottish voting intention poll of 2022 is by Savanta ComRes for the Scotsman (14-18 January; sample size=1,004)

    The only statistically significant change from their last poll, in October, is a 4 point drop in SCon VI for the regional list vote, enough to cost several MSPs their jobs, as nearly all the parliamentary group come from the lists.

    It is notable that VI in Scotland remains steady and predictable, whereas we have seen huge changes in VI in England, N Ireland and Wales. The Union rarely marches in step these days.

    Voting intention - Constituency vote

    SNP 47% (-1)
    SLab 22% (nc)
    SCon 19% (-1)
    SLD 8% (+1)
    oth 4% (+1)

    Voting intention - Regional lists

    SNP 38% (nc)
    SLab 20% (nc)
    SCon 18% (-4)
    Grn 12% (+1)
    SLD 9% (+2)
    Alba 2% (+1)
    oth 1% (nc)

    Voting intention - Independence

    Yes 50% (+2)
    No 50% (-2)

    Douglas Ross has played a blinder. As the English Tories sink like a stone, the wily football linesman keeps the Unionists’ heads above water.

    On those numbers, the SLDs might actually pick up a list seat.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    rcs1000 said:

    First Scottish voting intention poll of 2022 is by Savanta ComRes for the Scotsman (14-18 January; sample size=1,004)

    The only statistically significant change from their last poll, in October, is a 4 point drop in SCon VI for the regional list vote, enough to cost several MSPs their jobs, as nearly all the parliamentary group come from the lists.

    It is notable that VI in Scotland remains steady and predictable, whereas we have seen huge changes in VI in England, N Ireland and Wales. The Union rarely marches in step these days.

    Voting intention - Constituency vote

    SNP 47% (-1)
    SLab 22% (nc)
    SCon 19% (-1)
    SLD 8% (+1)
    oth 4% (+1)

    Voting intention - Regional lists

    SNP 38% (nc)
    SLab 20% (nc)
    SCon 18% (-4)
    Grn 12% (+1)
    SLD 9% (+2)
    Alba 2% (+1)
    oth 1% (nc)

    Voting intention - Independence

    Yes 50% (+2)
    No 50% (-2)

    Douglas Ross has played a blinder. As the English Tories sink like a stone, the wily football linesman keeps the Unionists’ heads above water.

    On those numbers, the SLDs might actually pick up a list seat.
    Are they called slids up there?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    edited January 2022
    Kate and cutest puppy! What not to ❤️ 😍

    image
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    rcs1000 said:

    First Scottish voting intention poll of 2022 is by Savanta ComRes for the Scotsman (14-18 January; sample size=1,004)

    The only statistically significant change from their last poll, in October, is a 4 point drop in SCon VI for the regional list vote, enough to cost several MSPs their jobs, as nearly all the parliamentary group come from the lists.

    It is notable that VI in Scotland remains steady and predictable, whereas we have seen huge changes in VI in England, N Ireland and Wales. The Union rarely marches in step these days.

    Voting intention - Constituency vote

    SNP 47% (-1)
    SLab 22% (nc)
    SCon 19% (-1)
    SLD 8% (+1)
    oth 4% (+1)

    Voting intention - Regional lists

    SNP 38% (nc)
    SLab 20% (nc)
    SCon 18% (-4)
    Grn 12% (+1)
    SLD 9% (+2)
    Alba 2% (+1)
    oth 1% (nc)

    Voting intention - Independence

    Yes 50% (+2)
    No 50% (-2)

    Douglas Ross has played a blinder. As the English Tories sink like a stone, the wily football linesman keeps the Unionists’ heads above water.

    On those numbers, the SLDs might actually pick up a list seat.
    Yes, this is a very encouraging poll for the Scottish Liberal Democrats. Their support decamped en masse to Ruth Davidson’s No Surrender Party, but there are tentative signs that they are meandering home. Or at least some of them are. It seems to be more apparent in Westminster VI than Holyrood VI, for obvious reasons.

    Unfortunately, it has diddly squat to do with Mr Cole-Hamilton, who has been as mysteriously invisible as Mr Sarwar. I presume that they are adopting Napoleon’s strategy of not disturbing the Tory enemy in the midst of their endless stream of unforced errors. (That is the charitable explanation for the Lib-Lab team’s AWOL. There are other, less charitable, explanations.)
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Presumably from the same poll:

    ‘Nicola Sturgeon backed by majority of Scots over Christmas Covid rules in poll’

    Scots overwhelmingly back the stricter approach taken by Nicola Sturgeon in response to the Omicron variant, a new poll has found.


    (The Scotsman; behind paywall so we’ll have to wait for details)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited January 2022
    Just flicking through the covid data and in most western countries you can see the clear effect of vaccination (and Omicron) as cases are massive all time highs, while deaths fraction of previous waves....except USA.

    They are only just being hit by Omicron and their death levels are already high (up their with wave one), and now they are getting a million cases a day.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited January 2022
    The future of Johnson doesn’t really dominate the Friday media in Scotland. Leading online stories:

    Scotsman: ‘Boris Johnson should resign, say four in five Scots as poll reveals Downing Street parties scandal 'hurts case for union'’

    Herald: ‘Nicola Sturgeon shocked by 'moral decay' of Boris Johnson blackmail claims’

    National: ‘Nicola Sturgeon 'shocked' by No 10 'blackmail' claims’

    Courier: ‘Broughty Ferry children’s shop hit by break-in as police investigate ‘spate of crimes’ in area’

    P&J: ‘Tory MP accuses government of ‘blackmailing’ Boris Johnson rebels’

    BBC Scotland: ‘New transport blueprint unveiled for Scotland’

    Daily Record: ‘How Loch Ness Monster should really look after mystery of beast debunked’

    Scottish Sun: ‘'I'M REALLY SORRY' Tearful Adele announces Las Vegas residency is CANCELLED – 24 hours before first show’

    Well done to the Dundee Courier and the Record! 😄
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,435

    Second, I reckon the papers would like to see this drag out...I still think people are pixxy amd will remember... the mere mention of Barnard Castle and DM being a good example

    I understand what you are saying, but question of degrees isn’t it when it comes to a general election two years away, will tainted old rouge Boris, who struggles to admit mistakes, still command a lot of votes others can’t reach? He got Brexit done, got covid done ahead of the rest of the planet, begun levelling up. It will tick a lot of boxes.

    My take on it, they have tried a putsch and failed, it’s hit too much stubborn resistance for Boris on the back benches, in cabinet and throughout the Conservative press hadn’t it? With Boris to get 200+ votes in a vonc, it’s stalemate isn’t it, they can’t call vonc.

    This standoff could go on for very long time. May elections? These things are as much art of spin than winning them mid term? Is it your turf this time or theirs, have you a greater or lesser vulnerability? What defines a wipe out or bad night? The leadership will spin not nearly the predicted wipe out, it’s all part of the Johnson recovery! As expected mid term, tough decisions taken. Nothing to see here. Building towards General Election. And the media narrative will move on in hours. Tell me I’m wrong.

    This standoff, where they can’t vonc because they don’t have the winning numbers on back bench’s, no support from cabinet, and the press turning on rebels and backing Boris, could go on a long time. In fact the most likelihood in Boris recovery, letters are withdrawn not added.
    Some good analysis, it all comes down to the Big Beasts... your ex-Cabinet Ministers, your Rishis etc.... if they agree on a way ahead (with the usual suspects) a solution will be found. BJ wants to be loved - IMO he will be hating this vilification and so I reckon is perhaps ready to go when he feels he can leave a legacy (prob COVID success story), I reckon his ego is so bruised that he'll jump - he's no Teresa May who hung on for dear life. So for me its back to the May elections (either just before or after).... which coincides with Platinum jubilee and declared "victory" over COVID
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Just flicking through the covid data and in most western countries you can see the clear effect of vaccination (and Omicron) as cases are massive all time highs, while deaths fraction of previous waves....except USA.

    They are only just being hit by Omicron and their death levels are already high (up their with wave one), and now they are getting a million cases a day.

    Next POTUS?

    FAV D Trump 7/2
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    In among all the doom and gloom of the morning’s papers, one lovely story.

    19-year-old Zara Rutherford becomes the youngest woman to fly solo around the world.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/20/belgian-briton-zara-rutherford-is-youngest-woman-to-fly-solo-around-world
    Took her five months to fly the 28,000 miles, dodging everything the weather had to throw at her tiny plane. Awesome achievement 👏
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Sandpit said:

    In among all the doom and gloom of the morning’s papers, one lovely story.

    19-year-old Zara Rutherford becomes the youngest woman to fly solo around the world.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/20/belgian-briton-zara-rutherford-is-youngest-woman-to-fly-solo-around-world
    Took her five months to fly the 28,000 miles, dodging everything the weather had to throw at her tiny plane. Awesome achievement 👏

    Yes I did see the lesser-spotted Flemish flying squirrel. De Pfeffel will be delighted.

    Great to see a fellow EU citizen doing her bit for Global Europe.

    Vlaanderen op zijn best!
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,087
    edited January 2022

    Presumably from the same poll:

    ‘Nicola Sturgeon backed by majority of Scots over Christmas Covid rules in poll’

    Scots overwhelmingly back the stricter approach taken by Nicola Sturgeon in response to the Omicron variant, a new poll has found.


    (The Scotsman; behind paywall so we’ll have to wait for details)

    Our regular reminder that, as much as many of us have had enough of rules and nannying and want to see the back of both just as soon as possible, a large fraction of the population rather likes living in the nursery and having Mummy take care of them. You'd probably have found similar attitudes on the southern side of the border as well.

    There is scant evidence to be found that having stricter rules has done any harm to the reputations of the devolved governments with anybody, save perhaps for some exasperated and despairing business owners. If their fiscal autonomy were as extensive as their legislative autonomy then I think that Wales would certainly have gone into a panic hard lockdown over Omicron before Christmas, and Scotland would probably have done so as well - and this would quite likely have made their respective First Ministers more, not less, popular.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,279

    First Scottish voting intention poll of 2022 is by Savanta ComRes for the Scotsman (14-18 January; sample size=1,004)

    The only statistically significant change from their last poll, in October, is a 4 point drop in SCon VI for the regional list vote, enough to cost several MSPs their jobs, as nearly all the parliamentary group come from the lists.

    It is notable that VI in Scotland remains steady and predictable, whereas we have seen huge changes in VI in England, N Ireland and Wales. The Union rarely marches in step these days.

    Voting intention - Constituency vote

    SNP 47% (-1)
    SLab 22% (nc)
    SCon 19% (-1)
    SLD 8% (+1)
    oth 4% (+1)

    Voting intention - Regional lists

    SNP 38% (nc)
    SLab 20% (nc)
    SCon 18% (-4)
    Grn 12% (+1)
    SLD 9% (+2)
    Alba 2% (+1)
    oth 1% (nc)

    Voting intention - Independence

    Yes 50% (+2)
    No 50% (-2)

    Douglas Ross has played a blinder. As the English Tories sink like a stone, the wily football linesman keeps the Unionists’ heads above water.

    No majority for independence. (Only joking).
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,770
    edited January 2022
    The big story of today has rather been missed. In a deposition, the CFO of the Trump organisation admitted that the valuation of Trump's Penthouse apartment - as used in his tax return - was out by (and I'm not joking here) $200m.

    Forget the Capitol riot.

    Tax evasion is a serious problem for DJT. If the State of New York comes after him, and it goes to trial, then he could end up in prison. Can he run for President from prison? Would it help him to have been locked up by a liberal state? What if he won the election? Could he order the army in to NY to secure his release?
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,087
    Andy_JS said:

    First Scottish voting intention poll of 2022 is by Savanta ComRes for the Scotsman (14-18 January; sample size=1,004)

    The only statistically significant change from their last poll, in October, is a 4 point drop in SCon VI for the regional list vote, enough to cost several MSPs their jobs, as nearly all the parliamentary group come from the lists.

    It is notable that VI in Scotland remains steady and predictable, whereas we have seen huge changes in VI in England, N Ireland and Wales. The Union rarely marches in step these days.

    Voting intention - Constituency vote

    SNP 47% (-1)
    SLab 22% (nc)
    SCon 19% (-1)
    SLD 8% (+1)
    oth 4% (+1)

    Voting intention - Regional lists

    SNP 38% (nc)
    SLab 20% (nc)
    SCon 18% (-4)
    Grn 12% (+1)
    SLD 9% (+2)
    Alba 2% (+1)
    oth 1% (nc)

    Voting intention - Independence

    Yes 50% (+2)
    No 50% (-2)

    Douglas Ross has played a blinder. As the English Tories sink like a stone, the wily football linesman keeps the Unionists’ heads above water.

    No majority for independence. (Only joking).
    An obvious and perfectly legitimate observation though. Since the 2014 referendum we've had about seven years for elderly pro-Union voters to die in their droves (and pro-independence youth to replace them,) five years of Brexit shenanigans, and two years of Boris Johnson, who goes down like a cup of cold sick, as PM. And yet, despite all this, Scottish public opinion remains split right down the middle on the constitutional question. You have to wonder what, if anything, will get it to shift decisively in one direction or the other.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,748
    edited January 2022
    Fucking hell, just heard a clip of Truss on the BBC giving a speech on the crisis of the moment; it's like A.J.P. Taylor has come back to life. She's 'warned' Putin that if he invades Ukraine it will cause a massive loss of life.

    a) No shit Sherlock
    b) What evidence is there that Vlad gives a toss about massive loss of life?

  • Fucking hell, just heard a clip of Truss on the BBC giving a speech on the crisis of the moment; it's like A.J.P. Taylor has come back to life. She's 'warned' Putin that if he invades Ukraine it will cause a massive loss of life.

    a) No shit Sherlock
    b) What evidence is there that Vlad gives a toss about massive loss of life?

    Why do you think Putin was the intended audience of the speech?
    You think her intended audience would be most impressed by Olivier on St Crispin's Day or Mavis Reilly wagging her finger at a shoplifter?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited January 2022

    Fucking hell, just heard a clip of Truss on the BBC giving a speech on the crisis of the moment; it's like A.J.P. Taylor has come back to life. She's 'warned' Putin that if he invades Ukraine it will cause a massive loss of life.

    a) No shit Sherlock
    b) What evidence is there that Vlad gives a toss about massive loss of life?

    Why do you think Putin was the intended audience of the speech?
    The intended audience has spent the day furiously back-pedalling the old man’s words from the day before - as all his allies, including Ms Truss, have made clear needs to be done.
  • Presumably from the same poll:

    ‘Nicola Sturgeon backed by majority of Scots over Christmas Covid rules in poll’

    Scots overwhelmingly back the stricter approach taken by Nicola Sturgeon in response to the Omicron variant, a new poll has found.


    (The Scotsman; behind paywall so we’ll have to wait for details)

    Quite obviously Sturgeon's lockdown was her biggest mistake since commanding her MPs to vote against the Brexit deal (© PB S***ch E****ts). Once those bus loads of Scots who escaped the McGulag at Hogmanay recover from their hangovers, the polls will change.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 4,199
    Meanwhile in Germany hospitals are close to going down. Intensive care is OK, but lots of less severely ill patients are coming in. The biggest problem is staff absences. And the peak for hospitals is about a month away. Also, PCR testing has hit capacity which creates problems in hospitals when you have to wait for a negative PCR test. As usual, there is zero leadership from the federal government. Scholz is turning out to be as rubbish as the awful Merkel.
  • Meanwhile Brexit.


  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Good morning, everyone.

    At this rate they'll need to rewrite the Wizard of Oz to add a Conservative MP who desperately wants a spine.

    VONC!
  • rcs1000 said:

    Wait.

    Boris Johnson has a future?

    Of course Boris has a future. Either in Cyber (he just doesn't know it yet) or in Siberia.

    What he doesn't have is the agreeable future he was looking forward to. Imagine, for example, if he tried to reprise his chairing of Have I Got News For You.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,743

    Good morning, everyone.

    At this rate they'll need to rewrite the Wizard of Oz to add a Conservative MP who desperately wants a spine.

    VONC!

    A shiver went along the government benches. It was looking for a spine to run down.

    Can't remember who said it, but it was a great line and very apt here.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,226
    edited January 2022
    I saw Aaron Bell’s name pop up in a (I think) BBC article about how the PM had failed to hold one on ones with rebels to get them onside including him. Here here!

    One wonders how many MPs have decided to play nicely nicely and wait for the Sue Gray report but have already made up their minds to pull the trigger.

    What disturbs me and makes me think he’ll cling on is the extraordinary volte face from the Mail & Telegraph in recent days. Puzzling.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    kamski said:

    Meanwhile in Germany hospitals are close to going down. Intensive care is OK, but lots of less severely ill patients are coming in. The biggest problem is staff absences. And the peak for hospitals is about a month away. Also, PCR testing has hit capacity which creates problems in hospitals when you have to wait for a negative PCR test. As usual, there is zero leadership from the federal government. Scholz is turning out to be as rubbish as the awful Merkel.

    Germany had a great early pandemic which I found difficult to understand - why are things going wrong now? In all honesty it's increasingly difficult to distinguish between 'blaming the authorities' and accepting that Covid beat the whole lot of them in one way or another>
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    Fucking hell, just heard a clip of Truss on the BBC giving a speech on the crisis of the moment; it's like A.J.P. Taylor has come back to life. She's 'warned' Putin that if he invades Ukraine it will cause a massive loss of life.

    a) No shit Sherlock
    b) What evidence is there that Vlad gives a toss about massive loss of life?

    Why do you think Putin was the intended audience of the speech?
    You think her intended audience would be most impressed by Olivier on St Crispin's Day or Mavis Reilly wagging her finger at a shoplifter?
    I was less struck by her words as by the Thatcherian manner of delivery. I think she is still very much up for the top job.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    felix said:

    Fucking hell, just heard a clip of Truss on the BBC giving a speech on the crisis of the moment; it's like A.J.P. Taylor has come back to life. She's 'warned' Putin that if he invades Ukraine it will cause a massive loss of life.

    a) No shit Sherlock
    b) What evidence is there that Vlad gives a toss about massive loss of life?

    Why do you think Putin was the intended audience of the speech?
    You think her intended audience would be most impressed by Olivier on St Crispin's Day or Mavis Reilly wagging her finger at a shoplifter?
    I was less struck by her words as by the Thatcherian manner of delivery. I think she is still very much up for the top job.
    Up for rather than up to..
    She wouldn't be my choice.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880
    There obviously isn't going to be a leadership challenge to Johnson any time soon if Love Laugh Liz and Baldy Ben have fucked off to Sydney for a bit of winter sun.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    One for @ydoethur, apparently the teachers’ unions and a group of head teachers think that having kids wear masks in classrooms is a great idea.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/01/20/schools-defy-boris-johnson-insist-face-masks-must-stay-class/
  • ydoethur said:

    Meanwhile Brexit.


    Just think what the queues will be like at Gretna if you ever get your way...
    As the status quo at the GB / EU border is unworkable and unsustainable, a solution will have to be found long before any theoretical border was thrown up at Gretna.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Pioneers, while the current PM does deserve criticism for this, it's also one of the reasons May was wrong to rush triggering Article 50. Not only did she not know what she wanted and threw away the time to consider it, it also made it more difficult when it came to getting systems in place to handle the new relationship.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,064

    ydoethur said:

    Meanwhile Brexit.


    Just think what the queues will be like at Gretna if you ever get your way...
    As the status quo at the GB / EU border is unworkable and unsustainable, a solution will have to be found long before any theoretical border was thrown up at Gretna.
    Indeed, resolving the issues over the GB/EU border solves the Irish Sea border too. Resolving in the sense of some form of customs union and recognition of SM standards in the UK.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Dr. Foxy, a customs union would allow the EU to dictate our trade deals. There's no point leaving the EU only to let them retain the power they had and throwing away any say whatsoever in said decisions.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,064

    Mr. Pioneers, while the current PM does deserve criticism for this, it's also one of the reasons May was wrong to rush triggering Article 50. Not only did she not know what she wanted and threw away the time to consider it, it also made it more difficult when it came to getting systems in place to handle the new relationship.

    It's almost as if Brexit came as a surprise to this government, 5 years after the vote, to discover what borders mean.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,080
    edited January 2022
    felix said:

    kamski said:

    Meanwhile in Germany hospitals are close to going down. Intensive care is OK, but lots of less severely ill patients are coming in. The biggest problem is staff absences. And the peak for hospitals is about a month away. Also, PCR testing has hit capacity which creates problems in hospitals when you have to wait for a negative PCR test. As usual, there is zero leadership from the federal government. Scholz is turning out to be as rubbish as the awful Merkel.

    Germany had a great early pandemic which I found difficult to understand - why are things going wrong now? In all honesty it's increasingly difficult to distinguish between 'blaming the authorities' and accepting that Covid beat the whole lot of them in one way or another>
    Germany has very variable regional vax rates iirc ie some areas very vulnerable to Omicron.

    Plus very low cases June -> December ==> Low 'Natural' Resistance wrt end of Delta + Omicron waves. I think.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,743

    ydoethur said:

    Meanwhile Brexit.


    Just think what the queues will be like at Gretna if you ever get your way...
    As the status quo at the GB / EU border is unworkable and unsustainable, a solution will have to be found long before any theoretical border was thrown up at Gretna.
    The relevance of that point being, since Scotland would not be a member of the EU?

    One of the things that tipped me to Remain - despite being very ambivalent on the subject of the EU, which is corrupt, greedy, dishonest, lazy and self-righteous - was that I noticed every single argument for leaving the EU, and every single batting away of the counter argument, bore a remarkable similarity to the behaviour of the Indy side in the Scottish referendum. And the answers Salmond gave on points like currency, borders, trading standards, debt etc were frankly not convincing.

    That's not to say an independent Scotland would be unsuccessful or unsustainable, just as an independent UK could and indeed has survived outside the EU. Merely that the prospectus being put forward was clearly not the one that would be followed. Under such circumstances it was reasonable to conclude that he didn't have a plan or a clue, or if he did, he thought it was so unattractive nobody would vote for it.

    And when I applied that to Johnson and Farage, the same logic applied. And nothing I have seen since has made me doubt my judgement.

    Of course, if you are in favour of both the UK leaving the EU and Scotland leaving the UK as for example @BartholomewRoberts is, there's no issue of logic. But favouring one without the other like certain Nationalists or Jacob Rees-Mogg do is just silly.

    Anyway, have a good morning,
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited January 2022

    Meanwhile Brexit.


    There is almost a blanket ban on reporting. We have extensive queues on all routes to Dover with the traffic cameras largely turned off. We have 9 hour waits at Sevington for paperwork and nothing to see. The same on the French side. Hauliers increasingly fed of of losing so much time even if you can persuade them to make the trip in the first place.

    Its as if the end of the GB as a fully-functioning trading nation isn't relevant to the Boris Liar scandal. But it is...
    Yes. And with more being implemented in the agreement, these headlines are shortly due to return, but in concert with the cost-of-living crisis as the year moves towards late spring , this time.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,064

    Dr. Foxy, a customs union would allow the EU to dictate our trade deals. There's no point leaving the EU only to let them retain the power they had and throwing away any say whatsoever in said decisions.

    Yes, and that is the essential stupidity of a soft Brexit. Either Remain, or accept true third nation status with respect to the EU with all the border paraphernalia that entails. Something that the Brexiteers still haven't got their heads around.

    I was pointing out in 2016 that the first thing the UK needs to do is recruit customs and excise staff and build the physical and IT infrastructure. Instead Big Dog was asleep in his basket, dreaming of bones.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    LibDems take a Town Council seat off the Conservatives in West Oxfordshire:

    http://twitter.com/ALDC/status/1484417166451646467

    Not a big deal in the overall scheme of things, but potentially a harbinger of more. Carterton is very military (it’s the town for RAF Brize Norton) and not somewhere the LDs have had a presence before. If this carries through to District level, which is clearly the intention, the Conservative majority will start to look very shaky.
  • rcs1000 said:

    The big story of today has rather been missed. In a deposition, the CFO of the Trump organisation admitted that the valuation of Trump's Penthouse apartment - as used in his tax return - was out by (and I'm not joking here) $200m.

    Forget the Capitol riot.

    Tax evasion is a serious problem for DJT. If the State of New York comes after him, and it goes to trial, then he could end up in prison. Can he run for President from prison? Would it help him to have been locked up by a liberal state? What if he won the election? Could he order the army in to NY to secure his release?

    That is if it was tax evasion. It seems Trump overstated the size of his apartment as 30,000 square feet rather than its actual 10,000 feet. In other words, he was inflating its value, presumably to gain more favourable loan terms. If true, fraud rather than tax evasion. Though it gets more complicated if he was downplaying the value of other assets for tax purposes, especially when transferring them to his children.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Dr. Foxy, I'd gently remind you that I did excoriate Conservative MPs when they made the foolish decision to make the jester PM, and May when she prematurely triggered Article 50.

    Agree entirely on Boris Johnson's incompetence.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739

    Though it gets more complicated if he was downplaying the value of other assets for tax purposes, especially when transferring them to his children.

    This is the remarkable letter the 1/6 Comte sent to Ivanka Trump today. It's chock full of details.

    https://january6th.house.gov/sites/democrats.january6th.house.gov/files/2022-1-20.BGT Letter to Ivanka Trump - Cover Letter and Enclosures_Redacted 2.pdf
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,064

    Dr. Foxy, I'd gently remind you that I did excoriate Conservative MPs when they made the foolish decision to make the jester PM, and May when she prematurely triggered Article 50.

    Agree entirely on Boris Johnson's incompetence.

    Anyone who voted Tory in 2019 is culpable for the farce of the Johnson administration. The papers were complicit, but ultimately it was the voters that put Big Dog in power.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739

    The whole point about trade is that you form a block and negotiate en masse. The EU trade deals were better than anything we can realistically hope for because the EU is bigger than the GB. As we're now finding out.

    But something something SCLEROTIC something something..?
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Meanwhile Brexit.


    Just think what the queues will be like at Gretna if you ever get your way...
    As the status quo at the GB / EU border is unworkable and unsustainable, a solution will have to be found long before any theoretical border was thrown up at Gretna.
    The relevance of that point being, since Scotland would not be a member of the EU?

    One of the things that tipped me to Remain - despite being very ambivalent on the subject of the EU, which is corrupt, greedy, dishonest, lazy and self-righteous - was that I noticed every single argument for leaving the EU, and every single batting away of the counter argument, bore a remarkable similarity to the behaviour of the Indy side in the Scottish referendum. And the answers Salmond gave on points like currency, borders, trading standards, debt etc were frankly not convincing.

    That's not to say an independent Scotland would be unsuccessful or unsustainable, just as an independent UK could and indeed has survived outside the EU. Merely that the prospectus being put forward was clearly not the one that would be followed. Under such circumstances it was reasonable to conclude that he didn't have a plan or a clue, or if he did, he thought it was so unattractive nobody would vote for it.

    And when I applied that to Johnson and Farage, the same logic applied. And nothing I have seen since has made me doubt my judgement.

    Of course, if you are in favour of both the UK leaving the EU and Scotland leaving the UK as for example @BartholomewRoberts is, there's no issue of logic. But favouring one without the other like certain Nationalists or Jacob Rees-Mogg do is just silly.

    Anyway, have a good morning,
    The proposals being thrown round for independence had the same lack of detail and understanding as the arguments for Brexit. An independent Scotland may or may not remain members of the EEA or CU (why do you and others keep saying EU with regards to trade when that isn't relevant?) but either way there wouldn't be the problems we now see between GB and EU because what we have now doesn't work and won't be continued.

    And that is the Brexit free gift for the nats. They don't need to propose a solution as the UK will have to create one long before it may be needed for Eng / Sco
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Foxy said:

    Dr. Foxy, I'd gently remind you that I did excoriate Conservative MPs when they made the foolish decision to make the jester PM, and May when she prematurely triggered Article 50.

    Agree entirely on Boris Johnson's incompetence.

    Anyone who voted Tory in 2019 is culpable for the farce of the Johnson administration. The papers were complicit, but ultimately it was the voters that put Big Dog in power.
    btw Foxy wrt stadium names you said recently that the LCFC ground previously was Filbert Way. Wasn't it Filbert Street?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited January 2022

    Dr. Foxy, you appear to have conveniently forgotten that the alternative was a far left lunatic who marched alongside hammer and sickle flags and Stalin banners.

    I'd vote for Starmer in a heartbeat if the Conservatives were led by a man who marched alongside swastika flags and Hitler banners.

    Corbyn was not a communist, however, but a democratic leftist who tolerated all sorts of people. Similarly, Johnson is not a fascist, but at various times has tolerated anti-democratic extremism, whether that be from Priti Patel in government, the assistance of Farage in the campaign, or the rousing of the far right with the "surrender bill".
  • This wouldn't have been possible if we were still in the EU as they banned battery farming.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Yes, it’s 3,000 direct jobs in Northumberland, and 5,000 more in ther supply chain, with £1.7bn of private investment and £100m of government investment, presumably in roads and infrastructure.

    Exactly what’s meant by levelling up.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    Scott_xP said:

    On the last Sunday before the 2019 general election, the Sunday Times cast its vote. “Mr Johnson is regarded with some suspicion by voters,” its editorial admitted. “He has an on-off relationship with the truth,” often preferred “bluster to grasp of detail”, and had a “colourful private life more typical of a French president”. Nonetheless, the paper urged its readers to put a liar, a bullshitter and a renowned moral incontinent in charge of the country. In making this argument, it was joined by the vast majority of national newspapers, and by the end of that week they got their wish.

    Over the past few days, those very same papers have discovered that a liar, a bullshitter and a moral incontinent runs the government. They are, naturally, horrified.

    The furies are now descending upon this prime minister. Having thoroughly chewed him up and digested every last point of polling advantage, the party he led to its first serious majority in 30 years is about to spit him out; the very MPs who most directly owe him their seats are plotting his demise. The obit already being written is about how one man, beset by monstrous flaws of character, presided over a rotten, insensate culture in Downing Street. Scarcely a word is said about how a rotten political culture chose this cracked actor to be prime minister in the first place.


    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/20/boris-johnson-culture-mourning-mother-downing-street-partied-prime-minister

    Missing the words Corbyn and Brexit perhaps?
  • kamskikamski Posts: 4,199
    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    Dr. Foxy, I'd gently remind you that I did excoriate Conservative MPs when they made the foolish decision to make the jester PM, and May when she prematurely triggered Article 50.

    Agree entirely on Boris Johnson's incompetence.

    Anyone who voted Tory in 2019 is culpable for the farce of the Johnson administration. The papers were complicit, but ultimately it was the voters that put Big Dog in power.
    btw Foxy wrt stadium names you said recently that the LCFC ground previously was Filbert Way. Wasn't it Filbert Street?
    That was the old stadium
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739

    the assistance of Farage in the campaign

    DT Andrew Rosindell MP: RT GB News: ‘The Conservative Party don’t like me, even though they wouldn’t be in government without me!’

    Nigel Farage answers your quest… http://pltwps.it/_OE1qKNp

    https://twitter.com/deletedbyMPs/status/1484426896779714567
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081
    0C down by the sea; coldest morning of the year.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 4,199

    rcs1000 said:

    The big story of today has rather been missed. In a deposition, the CFO of the Trump organisation admitted that the valuation of Trump's Penthouse apartment - as used in his tax return - was out by (and I'm not joking here) $200m.

    Forget the Capitol riot.

    Tax evasion is a serious problem for DJT. If the State of New York comes after him, and it goes to trial, then he could end up in prison. Can he run for President from prison? Would it help him to have been locked up by a liberal state? What if he won the election? Could he order the army in to NY to secure his release?

    That is if it was tax evasion. It seems Trump overstated the size of his apartment as 30,000 square feet rather than its actual 10,000 feet. In other words, he was inflating its value, presumably to gain more favourable loan terms. If true, fraud rather than tax evasion. Though it gets more complicated if he was downplaying the value of other assets for tax purposes, especially when transferring them to his children.
    BBC has this:

    "The court filing claims that at least two false statements were made to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) - the main tax body in the US - that "substantially overstated" the value of two properties to get a tax break."

    Not sure how that works, but anything is possible I guess.
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-60050141
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    kamski said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    Dr. Foxy, I'd gently remind you that I did excoriate Conservative MPs when they made the foolish decision to make the jester PM, and May when she prematurely triggered Article 50.

    Agree entirely on Boris Johnson's incompetence.

    Anyone who voted Tory in 2019 is culpable for the farce of the Johnson administration. The papers were complicit, but ultimately it was the voters that put Big Dog in power.
    btw Foxy wrt stadium names you said recently that the LCFC ground previously was Filbert Way. Wasn't it Filbert Street?
    That was the old stadium
    So what was Filbert Way?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    Sandpit said:

    Yes, it’s 3,000 direct jobs in Northumberland, and 5,000 more in ther supply chain, with £1.7bn of private investment and £100m of government investment, presumably in roads and infrastructure.

    Exactly what’s meant by levelling up.
    There’s lots of development going on at that site - not just the BV factory.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    kamski said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The big story of today has rather been missed. In a deposition, the CFO of the Trump organisation admitted that the valuation of Trump's Penthouse apartment - as used in his tax return - was out by (and I'm not joking here) $200m.

    Forget the Capitol riot.

    Tax evasion is a serious problem for DJT. If the State of New York comes after him, and it goes to trial, then he could end up in prison. Can he run for President from prison? Would it help him to have been locked up by a liberal state? What if he won the election? Could he order the army in to NY to secure his release?

    That is if it was tax evasion. It seems Trump overstated the size of his apartment as 30,000 square feet rather than its actual 10,000 feet. In other words, he was inflating its value, presumably to gain more favourable loan terms. If true, fraud rather than tax evasion. Though it gets more complicated if he was downplaying the value of other assets for tax purposes, especially when transferring them to his children.
    BBC has this:

    "The court filing claims that at least two false statements were made to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) - the main tax body in the US - that "substantially overstated" the value of two properties to get a tax break."

    Not sure how that works, but anything is possible I guess.
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-60050141
    The IRS is a Federal body, not sure how much jurisdiction the local NY authorities have over it.

    Also remember that Attourney General is a directly elected position, and this Democrat is up for re-election this November, having stood last time on a platform of putting Donald Trump in prison.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    First Scottish voting intention poll of 2022 is by Savanta ComRes for the Scotsman (14-18 January; sample size=1,004)

    The only statistically significant change from their last poll, in October, is a 4 point drop in SCon VI for the regional list vote, enough to cost several MSPs their jobs, as nearly all the parliamentary group come from the lists.

    It is notable that VI in Scotland remains steady and predictable, whereas we have seen huge changes in VI in England, N Ireland and Wales. The Union rarely marches in step these days.

    Voting intention - Constituency vote

    SNP 47% (-1)
    SLab 22% (nc)
    SCon 19% (-1)
    SLD 8% (+1)
    oth 4% (+1)

    Voting intention - Regional lists

    SNP 38% (nc)
    SLab 20% (nc)
    SCon 18% (-4)
    Grn 12% (+1)
    SLD 9% (+2)
    Alba 2% (+1)
    oth 1% (nc)

    Voting intention - Independence

    Yes 50% (+2)
    No 50% (-2)

    Douglas Ross has played a blinder. As the English Tories sink like a stone, the wily football linesman keeps the Unionists’ heads above water.

    No still at 50% despite PM Boris and despite Brexit. I was sure Nationalists were telling us all that meant Yes would be on 60%+ by now? Even more reason to respect the once in a generation 2014 vote
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081

    Dr. Foxy, a customs union would allow the EU to dictate our trade deals. There's no point leaving the EU only to let them retain the power they had and throwing away any say whatsoever in said decisions.

    Of course there is. We wouldn’t be in the political bit, which was the bit leavers hated the most, nor paying the annual subscriptions.

    No-one really got agitated about divergence of trade standards, and the benefits from diverging are largely a mirage, as subsequent events are proving.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Though it gets more complicated if he was downplaying the value of other assets for tax purposes, especially when transferring them to his children.

    This is the remarkable letter the 1/6 Comte sent to Ivanka Trump today. It's chock full of details.

    https://january6th.house.gov/sites/democrats.january6th.house.gov/files/2022-1-20.BGT Letter to Ivanka Trump - Cover Letter and Enclosures_Redacted 2.pdf
    Interesting but that relates to the 6th of January.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    HYUFD said:

    First Scottish voting intention poll of 2022 is by Savanta ComRes for the Scotsman (14-18 January; sample size=1,004)

    The only statistically significant change from their last poll, in October, is a 4 point drop in SCon VI for the regional list vote, enough to cost several MSPs their jobs, as nearly all the parliamentary group come from the lists.

    It is notable that VI in Scotland remains steady and predictable, whereas we have seen huge changes in VI in England, N Ireland and Wales. The Union rarely marches in step these days.

    Voting intention - Constituency vote

    SNP 47% (-1)
    SLab 22% (nc)
    SCon 19% (-1)
    SLD 8% (+1)
    oth 4% (+1)

    Voting intention - Regional lists

    SNP 38% (nc)
    SLab 20% (nc)
    SCon 18% (-4)
    Grn 12% (+1)
    SLD 9% (+2)
    Alba 2% (+1)
    oth 1% (nc)

    Voting intention - Independence

    Yes 50% (+2)
    No 50% (-2)

    Douglas Ross has played a blinder. As the English Tories sink like a stone, the wily football linesman keeps the Unionists’ heads above water.

    No still at 50% despite PM Boris and despite Brexit. I was sure Nationalists were telling us all that meant Yes would be on 60%+ by now? Even more reason to respect the once in a generation 2014 vote
    Fascinating input into the discussion
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    Second, I reckon the papers would like to see this drag out...I still think people are pixxy amd will remember... the mere mention of Barnard Castle and DM being a good example

    I understand what you are saying, but question of degrees isn’t it when it comes to a general election two years away, will tainted old rouge Boris, who struggles to admit mistakes, still command a lot of votes others can’t reach? He got Brexit done, got covid done ahead of the rest of the planet, begun levelling up. It will tick a lot of boxes.

    My take on it, they have tried a putsch and failed, it’s hit too much stubborn resistance for Boris on the back benches, in cabinet and throughout the Conservative press hadn’t it? With Boris to get 200+ votes in a vonc, it’s stalemate isn’t it, they can’t call vonc.

    This standoff could go on for very long time. May elections? These things are as much art of spin than winning them mid term? Is it your turf this time or theirs, have you a greater or lesser vulnerability? What defines a wipe out or bad night? The leadership will spin not nearly the predicted wipe out, it’s all part of the Johnson recovery! As expected mid term, tough decisions taken. Nothing to see here. Building towards General Election. And the media narrative will move on in hours. Tell me I’m wrong.

    This standoff, where they can’t vonc because they don’t have the winning numbers on back bench’s, no support from cabinet, and the press turning on rebels and backing Boris, could go on a long time. In fact the most likelihood in Boris recovery, letters are withdrawn not added.
    Some good analysis, it all comes down to the Big Beasts... your ex-Cabinet Ministers, your Rishis etc.... if they agree on a way ahead (with the usual suspects) a solution will be found. BJ wants to be loved - IMO he will be hating this vilification and so I reckon is perhaps ready to go when he feels he can leave a legacy (prob COVID success story), I reckon his ego is so bruised that he'll jump - he's no Teresa May who hung on for dear life. So for me its back to the May elections (either just before or after).... which coincides with Platinum jubilee and declared "victory" over COVID
    How could covid ever be a success given the death rates and the shambles they made of it and fact they partied all the way through whilst laughing at the plebs and happy to have piles of dead bodies. There are some sane people left in UK , up north at least.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    Sandpit said:

    Yes, it’s 3,000 direct jobs in Northumberland, and 5,000 more in ther supply chain, with £1.7bn of private investment and £100m of government investment, presumably in roads and infrastructure.

    Exactly what’s meant by levelling up.
    Will believe it when I see it. Vapourware at present, bit like the Tories 40 new hospitals that are imaginary.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,717
    edited January 2022
    Good morning everybody. We still have a frost here. However, the sky is clear and it looks as though it's going to be a bright but cold day.

    On topic, Johnson's wiles and woes, I watched the beginning of QT last night, and there was absolutely no support for Johnson. It was from St Andrews, and as might have been expected, the SCon man distanced himself from the Dirty Dog.

    Why though, given the local MP is LibDem, was there no LibDem on the panel?

    And we were told there's to be a QT on vaccination soon, from London, with anti-vaxxers recruited for the audience.
    Why; unless the panel, when announced will include tough talkers like Sir JVT.


    Edit, and yes, I know the opinions here about QT. Which I largely share. One question/discussion is usually enough for us.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,159
    edited January 2022

    Dr. Foxy, a customs union would allow the EU to dictate our trade deals. There's no point leaving the EU only to let them retain the power they had and throwing away any say whatsoever in said decisions.

    As and when there is any sign at all of this government going off signing new enhanced trade deals I would consider the point. There isn't. In Liz We Trust has copy pasted existing deals. The only "new" deal massively favours Australia in 15 years should it ever get implemented which it won't. Nor are there any prospects of major trading partners like Japan or America granting us new enhanced trade deals - we've openly been told to stick it.

    The whole point about trade is that you form a block and negotiate en masse. The EU trade deals were better than anything we can realistically hope for because the EU is bigger than the GB. As we're now finding out.

    Our post Brexit trade policy is scarcely a policy. It’s purely tactical, across the board. Looking for little wins that will impress the voters (or backbenchers) rather than any long term strategic direction that will make the country fertile ground for investment, or have a noticeable impact on consumers.

    In fact the whole Brexit realignment so far has been net bad news for consumers. Not disastrous, and outweighed by other problems caused by Covid, but not positive.

    The trouble is the downsides are boring. Somewhat reduced choice in retail. Traffic jams of stationary lorries in Kent. Increased costs and back office paperwork for businesses. It’s bad, but boring. So almost completely absent from media. Downing st parties, a pandemic and Russian aggression are all much more exciting.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,585

    Meanwhile Brexit.


    That's what a sunny upland looks like.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    edited January 2022
    Meatloaf has died.

    Absolutely gutted.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. B2, I remember saying that my own red line would only be the customs union.

    Deals may benefit the EU overall but harm individual countries. You think that wouldn't play into anything affecting us? It's madness to let a foreign power dictate our trade policy.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Meanwhile Brexit.


    Just think what the queues will be like at Gretna if you ever get your way...
    As the status quo at the GB / EU border is unworkable and unsustainable, a solution will have to be found long before any theoretical border was thrown up at Gretna.
    The relevance of that point being, since Scotland would not be a member of the EU?

    One of the things that tipped me to Remain - despite being very ambivalent on the subject of the EU, which is corrupt, greedy, dishonest, lazy and self-righteous - was that I noticed every single argument for leaving the EU, and every single batting away of the counter argument, bore a remarkable similarity to the behaviour of the Indy side in the Scottish referendum. And the answers Salmond gave on points like currency, borders, trading standards, debt etc were frankly not convincing.

    That's not to say an independent Scotland would be unsuccessful or unsustainable, just as an independent UK could and indeed has survived outside the EU. Merely that the prospectus being put forward was clearly not the one that would be followed. Under such circumstances it was reasonable to conclude that he didn't have a plan or a clue, or if he did, he thought it was so unattractive nobody would vote for it.

    And when I applied that to Johnson and Farage, the same logic applied. And nothing I have seen since has made me doubt my judgement.

    Of course, if you are in favour of both the UK leaving the EU and Scotland leaving the UK as for example @BartholomewRoberts is, there's no issue of logic. But favouring one without the other like certain Nationalists or Jacob Rees-Mogg do is just silly.

    Anyway, have a good morning,
    Would not be long till Scotland was an EU member though.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    IanB2 said:

    Dr. Foxy, a customs union would allow the EU to dictate our trade deals. There's no point leaving the EU only to let them retain the power they had and throwing away any say whatsoever in said decisions.

    Of course there is. We wouldn’t be in the political bit, which was the bit leavers hated the most, nor paying the annual subscriptions.

    No-one really got agitated about divergence of trade standards, and the benefits from diverging are largely a mirage, as subsequent events are proving.
    The upsides of an independent trade policy are not being stuck with the next set of gold-plated EU regulations making us uncompetitive, and a seat at the top table of the WHO, CP-TPP and other organisations setting global standards.
  • Dr. Foxy, a customs union would allow the EU to dictate our trade deals. There's no point leaving the EU only to let them retain the power they had and throwing away any say whatsoever in said decisions.

    As and when there is any sign at all of this government going off signing new enhanced trade deals I would consider the point. There isn't. In Liz We Trust has copy pasted existing deals. The only "new" deal massively favours Australia in 15 years should it ever get implemented which it won't. Nor are there any prospects of major trading partners like Japan or America granting us new enhanced trade deals - we've openly been told to stick it.

    The whole point about trade is that you form a block and negotiate en masse. The EU trade deals were better than anything we can realistically hope for because the EU is bigger than the GB. As we're now finding out.

    Yes, and then there are issue like the failure of the US to lift steel tariffs on the UK, even though they lifted them on the EU at the start of the year. This is threatening to cripple the remaining UK steel industry, and there's little we can do about it. Size matters.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    Dr. Foxy, a customs union would allow the EU to dictate our trade deals. There's no point leaving the EU only to let them retain the power they had and throwing away any say whatsoever in said decisions.

    As and when there is any sign at all of this government going off signing new enhanced trade deals I would consider the point. There isn't. In Liz We Trust has copy pasted existing deals. The only "new" deal massively favours Australia in 15 years should it ever get implemented which it won't. Nor are there any prospects of major trading partners like Japan or America granting us new enhanced trade deals - we've openly been told to stick it.

    The whole point about trade is that you form a block and negotiate en masse. The EU trade deals were better than anything we can realistically hope for because the EU is bigger than the GB. As we're now finding out.

    Hard to believe there are still some idiots who have not got that point yet. Still delusional that the UK is some kind of world power instead of just your average two bit nation.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    edited January 2022
    300,000 car battery packs per year is the planned production level, about 1/8 of the long-term average number of new car registrations in the UK, so a nice large contribution, but clearly we will need the same again at least 8 times over to satisfy the demand for car batteries by the end of the decade.

    At about 80 kWH per car battery pack, it's an annual production of 24 GWh of battery storage, so a somewhat smaller contribution to providing battery storage for a grid with a large proportion of wind power. We might end up wanting a large battery factory in every county.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,346
    Meat Loaf has died
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880

    Meatloaf has died.

    Absolutely gutted.

    Hartlepool Utd fan. Hard to shed a tear.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    Good morning everybody. We still have a frost here. However, the sky is clear and it looks as though it's going to be a bright but cold day.

    On topic, Johnson's wiles and woes, I watched the beginning of QT last night, and there was absolutely no support for Johnson. It was from St Andrews, and as might have been expected, the SCon man distanced himself from the Dirty Dog.

    Why though, given the local MP is LibDem, was there no LibDem on the panel?

    And we were told there's to be a QT on vaccination soon, from London, with anti-vaxxers recruited for the audience.
    Why; unless the panel, when announced will include tough talkers like Sir JVT.


    Edit, and yes, I know the opinions here about QT. Which I largely share. One question/discussion is usually enough for us.

    OKC , it is BBC and the audiences are hand picked.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Meatloaf has died.

    Absolutely gutted.

    Very sad, one of the greats.

    A moment of silence wouldn’t really be appropriate, maybe we should all play Bat Out Of Hell at full volume!
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    Sandpit said:

    Meatloaf has died.

    Absolutely gutted.

    Very sad, one of the greats.

    A moment of silence wouldn’t really be appropriate, maybe we should all play Bat Out Of Hell at full volume!
    and like a singer, before the gates of Heaven...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    Meatloaf has died.

    Absolutely gutted.

    RIP, made some great songs and had a musical.

    Also a rare Republican supporting US musician, here he is singing with Mitt Romney at a rally in 2012

    https://youtu.be/Y7nVteJ8_8k
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    Meanwhile Brexit.


    That's what a sunny upland looks like.
    Tory Bart Simpson imposter will be on shortly to tell you how good it is for the UK
This discussion has been closed.