At least 58 Conservative MPs have criticised Boris Johnson or his team in letters to constituents/Facebook posts/local press. Analysis reveals anger with the PM is much deeper than commonly appreciated in Westminster
iSam! Charles! Eadric! David Herdson! Leon! Alistair Meeks!
If they want!
What happened to that chap who was an anti vaxxer because he thought the govt were lying when they said vaccines were the pathway to no restrictions? Hopefully he didn’t move to NZ.
Supportive Red Wall MP: "genuine fear" is act of whips even trying to shore up support makes opposite likelier — they have "no idea" where 2019-ers are at
Tests indicate leukemia treatment going exceptionally well, despite having a non-standard treatment lastv summer due to the epidemic - all blood factors in normal ranges.
Fabulous news!!!! Puts all this nonsense into context
I am going to say something that may surprise some of you and it is this.
Of course the PM should have known the rules and followed them.
But it is perfectly plausible and in my experience often happens that 2 people have a conversation and both come away with a different genuine recollection/interpretation of what was said and what was meant. This is often the case when people know each other well and so don't talk in clear finished perfectly crafted sentences.
I can well imagine that Cummings thought he said "A", Boris understood "B" and that now 18 months or more later when they hate each other and are seeking advantage over the other their memories have hardened into what suits them. It happens quite often.
It is one reason why contemporaneous evidence is so valuable and also why you need a skilled interviewer.
Mind you I expect Sue Gray is probably pretty good at the latter given the skills she will necessarily have acquired running a pub in Northern Ireland's Bandit country during the Troubles. No wonder Boris was looking pained.
But what Gray uncovers is not the issue. It never has been. The government - and I include the Cabinet in this - were taking the piss out of the electorate. The electorate has now found this out and Tory MPs, hoping to save themselves, hope that Boris can be offered up as the scapegoat so that they can save their careers.
They're all a bunch of *ankers, frankly.
It reminds me of the good old days before recorded interviews in the nick when a trial could consist of two villains running a cut throat defence without a word of truth between them while the police had both planted the evidence and made up the confessions. Oh happy days before PACE.
At least 58 Conservative MPs have criticised Boris Johnson or his team in letters to constituents/Facebook posts/local press. Analysis reveals anger with the PM is much deeper than commonly appreciated in Westminster
Maybe but even if 54 have signed letters for a VONC they need 183 Tory MPs to vote against Boris in a VONC to remove him or he is safe for a year
Hyufd, 'not able to face another VONC for a year' and 'safe for a year' are two very, very different things. Just ask Theresa May.
Boris is far more stubborn than May
More stubborn than the woman who hung on for two years after losing a majority in an unloveable election that shot her authority to pieces? Excuse me while I die laughing...
I see I have missed the big news tonight. @Scott_xP's fulsome apology for his earlier popular music indiscretion.
In other news I was casually looking back and one of my favourite posts on the subject (April last year) was to say that Boris would fall but fuck knows how. At least now we know.
Although I am not yet counting chickens. @HYUFD is right. The new Cons MPs owe their presence in the HoC to Boris. They will think carefully before they ditch him.
Why what can Boris offer them now - Brexit done, levelling up is dead thanks to Covid and Boris’s name is mud with the voters who they need
At least 58 Conservative MPs have criticised Boris Johnson or his team in letters to constituents/Facebook posts/local press. Analysis reveals anger with the PM is much deeper than commonly appreciated in Westminster
Maybe but even if 54 have signed letters for a VONC they need 183 Tory MPs to vote against Boris in a VONC to remove him or he is safe for a year.
The redwall Tory MPs are 48 max
In a secret ballot there is no need to pretend to be loyal.
Remember over 200-250 Tory MPs would still hold their seats under current polls. That is over half the parliamentary party.
54% of Tory MPs even voted for Thatcher in 1990 despite the poll tax and polls also putting Labour 10%+ ahead, under current rules Thatcher would likely have survived as there would have been no 2nd ballot.
Removing a PM who has proved they can win a general election majority is no easy task, certainly midterm
At least 58 Conservative MPs have criticised Boris Johnson or his team in letters to constituents/Facebook posts/local press. Analysis reveals anger with the PM is much deeper than commonly appreciated in Westminster
At least 58 Conservative MPs have criticised Boris Johnson or his team in letters to constituents/Facebook posts/local press. Analysis reveals anger with the PM is much deeper than commonly appreciated in Westminster
I've had £11.79 at 352.6 on Teresa May to be next PM - to win over £4k.
Richard Nabavi is quite right. The unfolding drama could well result in the need for an interim PM and, if that is the case, that person could well be viewed as the actual next PM for Betfair settling purposes. Raab has every chance but to me Teresa May seems a far more suitable person. Especially at the odds I just got. She was our most recent PM, can have no ambition to stand for the leadership if Boris is forced aside, is largely respected by the Tory party, would most likely be trusted to be impartial and is available.
Likewise. I got on May at 450 earlier.
I have no idea what BF will do in the interim caretaker situation. The rules say they will go with the official webpage of UK Government as to name of current PM. But that page may make it clear May or other is 'caretaker'.
At least 58 Conservative MPs have criticised Boris Johnson or his team in letters to constituents/Facebook posts/local press. Analysis reveals anger with the PM is much deeper than commonly appreciated in Westminster
iSam! Charles! Eadric! David Herdson! Leon! Alistair Meeks!
If they want!
What happened to that chap who was an anti vaxxer because he thought the govt were lying when they said vaccines were the pathway to no restrictions? Hopefully he didn’t move to NZ.
The critical thing about the thumbs up 👍 thumbs down 👎 leadership vote is it’s a secret ballot. Anyone - cab ministers, supposed allies - can vote against PM anonymously.
I've had £11.79 at 352.6 on Teresa May to be next PM - to win over £4k.
Richard Nabavi is quite right. The unfolding drama could well result in the need for an interim PM and, if that is the case, that person could well be viewed as the actual next PM for Betfair settling purposes. Raab has every chance but to me Teresa May seems a far more suitable person. Especially at the odds I just got. She was our most recent PM, can have no ambition to stand for the leadership if Boris is forced aside, is largely respected by the Tory party, would most likely be trusted to be impartial and is available.
Likewise. I got on May at 450 earlier.
I have no idea what BF will do in the interim caretaker situation. The rules say they will go with the official webpage of UK Government as to name of current PM. But that page may make it clear May or other is 'caretaker'.
Just wish they would add Hague to their lists.
Obvious cop out would be for Johnson to resign as First Lord of the Treasury and someone else hold that role for the interim. That way, no new PM until one is appointed but somebody else runs the government.
I've had £11.79 at 352.6 on Teresa May to be next PM - to win over £4k.
Richard Nabavi is quite right. The unfolding drama could well result in the need for an interim PM and, if that is the case, that person could well be viewed as the actual next PM for Betfair settling purposes. Raab has every chance but to me Teresa May seems a far more suitable person. Especially at the odds I just got. She was our most recent PM, can have no ambition to stand for the leadership if Boris is forced aside, is largely respected by the Tory party, would most likely be trusted to be impartial and is available.
I am fairly certain I was the first to suggest Theresa a few days ago
At least 58 Conservative MPs have criticised Boris Johnson or his team in letters to constituents/Facebook posts/local press. Analysis reveals anger with the PM is much deeper than commonly appreciated in Westminster
Maybe but even if 54 have signed letters for a VONC they need 183 Tory MPs to vote against Boris in a VONC to remove him or he is safe for a year
Hyufd, 'not able to face another VONC for a year' and 'safe for a year' are two very, very different things. Just ask Theresa May.
Boris is far more stubborn than May, he will tell rebels if they want to get him out they will have to vote him out. He will not resign in my view.
Unlike May he also already has one landslide general election win behind him and has delivered Brexit
He is not going to win a VONC.
He has no backbench support group. There are no Johnsonians other than the motley crew of useless no-marks who are his cabinet. Every MP says it was always transactional and they now have massive, heart-stopping buyers remorse.
I've had £11.79 at 352.6 on Teresa May to be next PM - to win over £4k.
Richard Nabavi is quite right. The unfolding drama could well result in the need for an interim PM and, if that is the case, that person could well be viewed as the actual next PM for Betfair settling purposes. Raab has every chance but to me Teresa May seems a far more suitable person. Especially at the odds I just got. She was our most recent PM, can have no ambition to stand for the leadership if Boris is forced aside, is largely respected by the Tory party, would most likely be trusted to be impartial and is available.
Surely there is no such thing as an interim PM - you are either First Lord of the Treasury or not. Interim leader of the LabTory party? Sure. But not interim PM. Appointed by Her Majesty and everything
At least 58 Conservative MPs have criticised Boris Johnson or his team in letters to constituents/Facebook posts/local press. Analysis reveals anger with the PM is much deeper than commonly appreciated in Westminster
The critical thing about the thumbs up 👍 thumbs down 👎 leadership vote is it’s a secret ballot. Anyone - cab ministers, supposed allies - can vote against PM anonymously.
If it comes to a VONC, what possible motivations would any MP have to vote for the PM to continue in a secret ballot? Genuinely interested in this question. As I believe he could be defeated by a quite laughable margin.
I've had £11.79 at 352.6 on Teresa May to be next PM - to win over £4k.
Richard Nabavi is quite right. The unfolding drama could well result in the need for an interim PM and, if that is the case, that person could well be viewed as the actual next PM for Betfair settling purposes. Raab has every chance but to me Teresa May seems a far more suitable person. Especially at the odds I just got. She was our most recent PM, can have no ambition to stand for the leadership if Boris is forced aside, is largely respected by the Tory party, would most likely be trusted to be impartial and is available.
Surely there is no such thing as an interim PM - you are either First Lord of the Treasury or not. Interim leader of the LabTory party? Sure. But not interim PM. Appointed by Her Majesty and everything
Dominic Fucking Raab
Be afraid
The Prime Minister doesn't have to be First Lord, and in fact wasn't for much of the nineteenth century. It has always been the same person since 1902, however.
The slightly annoying thing about this is that retarded fantasist Cummings will spend the rest of his life claiming credit for Johnson's downfall if he is ejected tomorrow, when he played a frankly minor and unconvincing role in this as with most things in his worthless and unsuccessful life.
But that would be a small price to pay for getting rid of Johnson.
Yeah the why this is happening we haven’t really discussed and bottomed out? It’s not just a bitter Cummings and ambitious Sunak imo.
Before I came back to London my Dad said the party is going to remove Boris now. They are going to carry on with it until he is gone. I can’t take credit for just reporting what he told me, but it was so quiet till to about a week ago wasn’t it?
The reason he said is the business friendly Tories they want to take control of policy which is wasted in Boris hands, so the leader goes to conference speeches and CBI with something to say to them. The bit I added in my own mind is all that was coming from Boris is everything is fantastic and going to be boostered and that’s rubbish wasn’t it? He wasn’t business friendly?
So it’s not the parties why they want to get rid of him, it’s the parties being used to get rid of him because the business friendly ones they want to take back control. How does that argument stack up?
But my Dad although a Conservative member for years and voted them all life, he hates Brexit, he hates how anti businesses the party has gone. My mum couldn’t wait to vote for Brexit.
But if my Dad sees this as more pro business party taking back control, the problem is Brexit isn’t done.
When people post Brexit is done, that’s Boris legacy, it’s statement even unites Big G and HYUFD, I ain’t so sure. There is long way in two different directions Brexit can still go. Does Lord Frost and the party wing he represents think Brexit is done? Nope. Unless we now embrace freedom to break with the European social model they will call it Brexit not done, Brexit betrayal. Meanwhile there are those tory who would take Brexit in the other pro business direction, Remainer Mays softer brexit.
Those of you who like posting brexit is done and dusted, tell me I’m wrong. 🤔
At least 58 Conservative MPs have criticised Boris Johnson or his team in letters to constituents/Facebook posts/local press. Analysis reveals anger with the PM is much deeper than commonly appreciated in Westminster
Maybe but even if 54 have signed letters for a VONC they need 183 Tory MPs to vote against Boris in a VONC to remove him or he is safe for a year
Hyufd, 'not able to face another VONC for a year' and 'safe for a year' are two very, very different things. Just ask Theresa May.
Boris is far more stubborn than May, he will tell rebels if they want to get him out they will have to vote him out. He will not resign in my view.
Unlike May he also already has one landslide general election win behind him and has delivered Brexit
He is not going to win a VONC.
Even if he did, it's difficult to imagine he'd win it by enough. 130 'no' and he"s finished anyway.
130 is barely more than a third of Tory MPs. ' He would be safe for a year, past the difficult locals this year and in 2023 the locals were so bad in 2019 the Tories might even make gains
iSam! Charles! Eadric! David Herdson! Leon! Alistair Meeks!
If they want!
What happened to that chap who was an anti vaxxer because he thought the govt were lying when they said vaccines were the pathway to no restrictions? Hopefully he didn’t move to NZ.
Would this be Rod 'Holocaust Didn't Happen' Crosby?
Yeah ok Not His Finest Hour
Particularly the bit where he said they had "decent swimming pools at Treblinka"
But he was right about Swingback
Anyhow, I'm just a longtime but quite attractive young ballet-dancing lurker with a close friendship with Nicola Sturgeon. Go ahead. Ignore me
Before we decide whether you are allowed to stay, could you let us know your views on the popular beat combo, Radiohead?
Up there with Mozart, for me
Also I love tartan suits
HATE SCOTTISH SUBSAMPLES.
No, Really., I HATE THEM. I put it on my Tinder profile. FUCK OFF WITH YOUR SCOTTISH SUBSAMPLES.
I was actually trying to ward off some guy called Stuart Dycson, who, frankly, had sub-sample genitalia, certainly not exemplary, and he was Scottish, and kept presenting it, in photos, coz he'd heard I was "close" to Nicola, but ahhh eek sorry I've just joined soz I will stop now. You guys knows so much I love you
At least 58 Conservative MPs have criticised Boris Johnson or his team in letters to constituents/Facebook posts/local press. Analysis reveals anger with the PM is much deeper than commonly appreciated in Westminster
I've had £11.79 at 352.6 on Teresa May to be next PM - to win over £4k.
Richard Nabavi is quite right. The unfolding drama could well result in the need for an interim PM and, if that is the case, that person could well be viewed as the actual next PM for Betfair settling purposes. Raab has every chance but to me Teresa May seems a far more suitable person. Especially at the odds I just got. She was our most recent PM, can have no ambition to stand for the leadership if Boris is forced aside, is largely respected by the Tory party, would most likely be trusted to be impartial and is available.
Surely there is no such thing as an interim PM - you are either First Lord of the Treasury or not. Interim leader of the LabTory party? Sure. But not interim PM. Appointed by Her Majesty and everything
Dominic Fucking Raab
Be afraid
We don't know is my opinion. There is a constitutional possibility of a caretaker PM. In the past it has been discussed by Palace as a possible way forward when, for example, a PM dies in office and there needs to be a leadership election.
Deputy PM is pretty new in constitutional terms. Not even sure if Palace actually accepts it exists as a constitutional thing. Happy for someone with more knowledge to pop up.
At least 58 Conservative MPs have criticised Boris Johnson or his team in letters to constituents/Facebook posts/local press. Analysis reveals anger with the PM is much deeper than commonly appreciated in Westminster
Maybe but even if 54 have signed letters for a VONC they need 183 Tory MPs to vote against Boris in a VONC to remove him or he is safe for a year.
The redwall Tory MPs are 48 max
I suspect the Red Wallers - despite any rumours to the contrary - will remain mostly loyal to Boris. Foremost in their minds will be the notion that they are only there because of Boris's alchemy. That's a big thing to risk binning.
At least 58 Conservative MPs have criticised Boris Johnson or his team in letters to constituents/Facebook posts/local press. Analysis reveals anger with the PM is much deeper than commonly appreciated in Westminster
I've had £11.79 at 352.6 on Teresa May to be next PM - to win over £4k.
Richard Nabavi is quite right. The unfolding drama could well result in the need for an interim PM and, if that is the case, that person could well be viewed as the actual next PM for Betfair settling purposes. Raab has every chance but to me Teresa May seems a far more suitable person. Especially at the odds I just got. She was our most recent PM, can have no ambition to stand for the leadership if Boris is forced aside, is largely respected by the Tory party, would most likely be trusted to be impartial and is available.
The critical thing about the thumbs up 👍 thumbs down 👎 leadership vote is it’s a secret ballot. Anyone - cab ministers, supposed allies - can vote against PM anonymously.
iSam! Charles! Eadric! David Herdson! Leon! Alistair Meeks!
If they want!
What happened to that chap who was an anti vaxxer because he thought the govt were lying when they said vaccines were the pathway to no restrictions? Hopefully he didn’t move to NZ.
Would this be Rod 'Holocaust Didn't Happen' Crosby?
Yeah ok Not His Finest Hour
Particularly the bit where he said they had "decent swimming pools at Treblinka"
But he was right about Swingback
Anyhow, I'm just a longtime but quite attractive young ballet-dancing lurker with a close friendship with Nicola Sturgeon. Go ahead. Ignore me
Before we decide whether you are allowed to stay, could you let us know your views on the popular beat combo, Radiohead?
Up there with Mozart, for me
Also I love tartan suits
HATE SCOTTISH SUBSAMPLES.
No, Really., I HATE THEM. I put it on my Tinder profile. FUCK OFF WITH YOUR SCOTTISH SUBSAMPLES.
I was actually trying to ward off some guy called Stuart Dycson, who, frankly, had sub-sample genitalia, certainly not exemplary, and he was Scottish, and kept presenting it, in photos, coz he'd heard I was "close" to Nicola, but ahhh eek sorry I've just joined soz I will stop now. You guys knows so much I love you
And that is why the new line "gosh I'm sorry I had no idea the big pissup on my garden was against the "no pissups in your garden" rules line is so bad.
What kind of bobber doesn't know the rules when he is the person who signs off the rules and has gone repeatedly and endlessly on record saying how sorry you are for the rules?
At least 58 Conservative MPs have criticised Boris Johnson or his team in letters to constituents/Facebook posts/local press. Analysis reveals anger with the PM is much deeper than commonly appreciated in Westminster
Maybe but even if 54 have signed letters for a VONC they need 183 Tory MPs to vote against Boris in a VONC to remove him or he is safe for a year
Hyufd, 'not able to face another VONC for a year' and 'safe for a year' are two very, very different things. Just ask Theresa May.
Boris is far more stubborn than May, he will tell rebels if they want to get him out they will have to vote him out. He will not resign in my view.
Unlike May he also already has one landslide general election win behind him and has delivered Brexit
He is not going to win a VONC.
Even if he did, it's difficult to imagine he'd win it by enough. 130 'no' and he"s finished anyway.
130 is barely more than a third of Tory MPs. ' He would be safe for a year, past the difficult locals this year and in 2023 the locals were so bad in 2019 the Tories might even make gains
Some of your posts are going to be keepers
He is over, gone, and the sooner you accept this the less pain you are going to feel
Tests indicate leukemia treatment going exceptionally well, despite having a non-standard treatment lastv summer due to the epidemic - all blood factors in normal ranges.
More and more Tory MPs are coming out & taking a stand. There are many decent backbenchers who will feel huge embarrassment & shame especially when they have to face their voters. Feels like things are moving fast tonight & reaching a tipping point. https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1483556539440975876
At least 58 Conservative MPs have criticised Boris Johnson or his team in letters to constituents/Facebook posts/local press. Analysis reveals anger with the PM is much deeper than commonly appreciated in Westminster
Maybe but even if 54 have signed letters for a VONC they need 183 Tory MPs to vote against Boris in a VONC to remove him or he is safe for a year.
The redwall Tory MPs are 48 max
I suspect the Red Wallers - despite any rumours to the contrary - will remain mostly loyal to Boris. Foremost in their minds will be the notion that they are only there because of Boris's alchemy. That's a big thing to risk binning.
I don’t think so.
The polling and the emails and the front pages say something else.
The Tories are totally fucked, and only replacing Boris gives them the slightest hope of being un-fucked.
Tories now at the "All we need now is a deck of cards" sentry gun scene in Aliens. Only q is, who will turn out to be Hicks and Ripley? Already obvious that (my)newt is the CotE.
At least 58 Conservative MPs have criticised Boris Johnson or his team in letters to constituents/Facebook posts/local press. Analysis reveals anger with the PM is much deeper than commonly appreciated in Westminster
To be fair to the Prime Minister, he did once end a Covid presser by saying we should all stay at home and he was looking forward to visiting his mother.
EXC As many as 20 Tory MPs from the 2019 intake are planning to submit letters of no confidence in Boris Johnson tomorrow.
The number could breach the 54 letters required for a confidence vote. One 2019 Tory MP told me it could be the PM’s “D-Day”, adding: “His time has gone.
However, I think Rishi Sunak has the best chance of damage limitation. If they get this wrong the tories will be out for a generation as happened post Thatcher-Major and post Blair. If they get this right they could still cause a hung parliament from here.
Maybe. Though they may be out for a generation anyway, all a PM Sunak might do is save the furniture before the Tories move to the populist right under say Truss or Patel in opposition.
I am 40 and have only seen 2 changes of government in my lifetime, 1997 and 2010. When the British public decide the governing party is no longer fit for power they rarely change their mind for at least a decade or more.
The only real exception was the economic chaos and strikes of the 1970s and we all want to avoid that
The current situation has a very different dynamic though. There has not been a shift in the ideological sentiments of the electorate and the view of life propagated by the LP is probably still more unpopular than that of the governing party. Secondly the unpopularity of the government is not due to policies like economic austerity or other "tough decisions". Both of these might occur but might also be avoided with a new leader. LP can also defeat itself with plenty of policy trip wires.
Tories get next moves wrong and they will lose next election, possibly very badly. Get them right and they might even win it. Fall of BoJo is unprecedented and difficult to judge how deep and how lasting the collateral damage will be. In the eyes of many he will be a "one-off" and that could play to the Tories advantage. Any serious evidence against other cabinet ministers will make things trickier though.
It is one reason why contemporaneous evidence is so valuable and also why you need a skilled interviewer.
Mind you I expect Sue Gray is probably pretty good at the latter given the skills she will necessarily have acquired running a pub in Northern Ireland's Bandit country during the Troubles. No wonder Boris was looking pained.
There are rumours her interview skills are one reason she ended up running a pub in Northern Ireland's Bandit country during the Troubles before resuming a senior career in London...
I wonder if Yokes knows?
It's rather sweet the way we are all pretending that this was a career break - like swanning off to South America for 6 months - rather than the next necessary step in her career.
At least 58 Conservative MPs have criticised Boris Johnson or his team in letters to constituents/Facebook posts/local press. Analysis reveals anger with the PM is much deeper than commonly appreciated in Westminster
At least 58 Conservative MPs have criticised Boris Johnson or his team in letters to constituents/Facebook posts/local press. Analysis reveals anger with the PM is much deeper than commonly appreciated in Westminster
Maybe but even if 54 have signed letters for a VONC they need 183 Tory MPs to vote against Boris in a VONC to remove him or he is safe for a year.
The redwall Tory MPs are 48 max
I suspect the Red Wallers - despite any rumours to the contrary - will remain mostly loyal to Boris. Foremost in their minds will be the notion that they are only there because of Boris's alchemy. That's a big thing to risk binning.
Indeed. Say even if he only gets half of them, that is 24, plus almost all of the 160 Tory MPs who voted for Boris in 2019 in the final MPs ballot against Hunt and Gove that is 184.
184 is all he needs, ie 50.4% of Tory MPs. He is then safe for a year.
Even if he loses a few of the 160 like Ross he will likely pick up a handful who voted for Gove in 2019, even if all the 77 Hunt backing MPs in the Commons still vote to VONC Boris along with the other half of redwall MPs and most of the Gove backing MPs
At least 58 Conservative MPs have criticised Boris Johnson or his team in letters to constituents/Facebook posts/local press. Analysis reveals anger with the PM is much deeper than commonly appreciated in Westminster
Every day I think the anger has subsided and then Boris goes and says something.
The curious thing, about which books will be written, is that BoZo has been the same for 2 years, saying the same stupid shit, doing the same stupid stuff.
At least 58 Conservative MPs have criticised Boris Johnson or his team in letters to constituents/Facebook posts/local press. Analysis reveals anger with the PM is much deeper than commonly appreciated in Westminster
Maybe but even if 54 have signed letters for a VONC they need 183 Tory MPs to vote against Boris in a VONC to remove him or he is safe for a year.
The redwall Tory MPs are 48 max
I suspect the Red Wallers - despite any rumours to the contrary - will remain mostly loyal to Boris. Foremost in their minds will be the notion that they are only there because of Boris's alchemy. That's a big thing to risk binning.
I don’t think so.
The polling and the emails and the front pages say something else.
The Tories are totally fucked, and only replacing Boris gives them the slightest hope of being un-fucked.
And every day they fail to do so costs them another point in the polls
At least 58 Conservative MPs have criticised Boris Johnson or his team in letters to constituents/Facebook posts/local press. Analysis reveals anger with the PM is much deeper than commonly appreciated in Westminster
Maybe but even if 54 have signed letters for a VONC they need 183 Tory MPs to vote against Boris in a VONC to remove him or he is safe for a year.
The redwall Tory MPs are 48 max
I suspect the Red Wallers - despite any rumours to the contrary - will remain mostly loyal to Boris. Foremost in their minds will be the notion that they are only there because of Boris's alchemy. That's a big thing to risk binning.
Indeed. Say he gets half of them, that is 24, plus most of the 160 Tory MPs who voted for Boris in 2019 in the final MPs ballot against Hunt and Gove that is 184.
184 is all he needs, ie 50.4% of Tory MPs. He is then safe for a year
iSam! Charles! Eadric! David Herdson! Leon! Alistair Meeks!
If they want!
Whoa - has Leon gone?
Libel, banned, everyone was happy. Now unbanned, but has returned with a second account. So we can look forward to his tedious wittering in stereo,
You seem to dislike him? What did he do? I only lurked sporadically so I am unaware of the "granular backstory"
Did you compare penii and come off badly? What?!
This site is brilliant!
Charles, your new identity is very unconvincing.
“Penii” was the tell, as the only previous citation was a post where Charles explained that his Aunty Gladys explained the concept of the Crown-in-Parliament to him using borrowed members from the Hunterian collection.
It is quite amusing. Even lurkers like me* know the real life identities of many regulars, tis just discretion that we don't bring them up and I feel piggy Issac's pain. Well not just discretion, also increased empathy (shall we say through personal experience) for gingers, drunks, and pervs.
Didn't know Mr Meeks had left though. I knew he was on the down low due to personal reasons, has he actually gone?
*I'm going to try to make the PH meetup in March on the basis that the drinks are probably free
At least 58 Conservative MPs have criticised Boris Johnson or his team in letters to constituents/Facebook posts/local press. Analysis reveals anger with the PM is much deeper than commonly appreciated in Westminster
At least 58 Conservative MPs have criticised Boris Johnson or his team in letters to constituents/Facebook posts/local press. Analysis reveals anger with the PM is much deeper than commonly appreciated in Westminster
Maybe but even if 54 have signed letters for a VONC they need 183 Tory MPs to vote against Boris in a VONC to remove him or he is safe for a year.
The redwall Tory MPs are 48 max
I suspect the Red Wallers - despite any rumours to the contrary - will remain mostly loyal to Boris. Foremost in their minds will be the notion that they are only there because of Boris's alchemy. That's a big thing to risk binning.
Indeed. Say he gets half of them, that is 24, plus most of the 160 Tory MPs who voted for Boris in 2019 in the final MPs ballot against Hunt and Gove that is 184.
184 is all he needs, ie 50.4% of Tory MPs. He is then safe for a year
He will go, there is no way he can function psychologically now. He can't spend 12 months doing no interviews, for a start.
At least 58 Conservative MPs have criticised Boris Johnson or his team in letters to constituents/Facebook posts/local press. Analysis reveals anger with the PM is much deeper than commonly appreciated in Westminster
Maybe but even if 54 have signed letters for a VONC they need 183 Tory MPs to vote against Boris in a VONC to remove him or he is safe for a year.
The redwall Tory MPs are 48 max
I suspect the Red Wallers - despite any rumours to the contrary - will remain mostly loyal to Boris. Foremost in their minds will be the notion that they are only there because of Boris's alchemy. That's a big thing to risk binning.
Indeed. Say he gets half of them, that is 24, plus almost all of the 160 Tory MPs who voted for Boris in 2019 in the final MPs ballot against Hunt and Gove that is 184.
184 is all he needs, ie 50.4% of Tory MPs. He is then safe for a year.
Even if he loses a few of the 160 he will likely pick up a handful who voted for Gove in 2019, even if all the 77 Hunt backing MPs in the Commons still vote to VONC Boris along with the other half of redwall MPs and most of the Gove backing MPs
I don’t believe any Red Waller is supporting Boris, what exactly can he offer them now?
I've had £11.79 at 352.6 on Teresa May to be next PM - to win over £4k.
Richard Nabavi is quite right. The unfolding drama could well result in the need for an interim PM and, if that is the case, that person could well be viewed as the actual next PM for Betfair settling purposes. Raab has every chance but to me Teresa May seems a far more suitable person. Especially at the odds I just got. She was our most recent PM, can have no ambition to stand for the leadership if Boris is forced aside, is largely respected by the Tory party, would most likely be trusted to be impartial and is available.
Good luck but not for me.
I think it’s an excellent market to play. The chances of a Boris quick get away have to be huge, but the options of interim PM are huge too. I think Raab is technically the PM run over by escaped Rhino nominee. If he is running is he allowed to do both? Is it simply down to Palace to send for someone like May and foist them on the cabinet? That don’t make sense to me. Surely the cabinet would have to nominate someone not standing? The defence Sec for example? That’s my pick in this game.
Every day I think the anger has subsided and then Boris goes and says something.
The curious thing, about which books will be written, is that BoZo has been the same for 2 years, saying the same stupid shit, doing the same stupid stuff.
Until last week they loved him for it...
Owen Paterson was a corrupt shambles too far. The collapse started there.
It also feels like there is huge pent-up hatred for Boris. I’m reminded of the frenzied “shoeing” of the toppled Saddam statue after the fall of Baghdad.
At least 58 Conservative MPs have criticised Boris Johnson or his team in letters to constituents/Facebook posts/local press. Analysis reveals anger with the PM is much deeper than commonly appreciated in Westminster
Well, that's a bit pointless. It's not letters to constituents that count in getting Bastard Johnson out.
A lot of those read like MPs telling voters that they've uneasy to keep them onside, rather than definite 1922 Committee letter-writers.
But I do like the Cabinet Minister's judicious view of Northern Tories: "Most of them are a load of f***ing nobodies." I'm sure that'll bring the party together...
EXC As many as 20 Tory MPs from the 2019 intake are planning to submit letters of no confidence in Boris Johnson tomorrow.
The number could breach the 54 letters required for a confidence vote. One 2019 Tory MP told me it could be the PM’s “D-Day”, adding: “His time has gone.
However, I think Rishi Sunak has the best chance of damage limitation. If they get this wrong the tories will be out for a generation as happened post Thatcher-Major and post Blair. If they get this right they could still cause a hung parliament from here.
Maybe. Though they may be out for a generation anyway, all a PM Sunak might do is save the furniture before the Tories move to the populist right under say Truss or Patel in opposition.
I am 40 and have only seen 2 changes of government in my lifetime, 1997 and 2010. When the British public decide the governing party is no longer fit for power they rarely change their mind for at least a decade or more.
The only real exception was the economic chaos and strikes of the 1970s and we all want to avoid that
The current situation has a very different dynamic though. There has not been a shift in the ideological sentiments of the electorate and the view of life propagated by the LP is probably still more unpopular than that of the governing party. Secondly the unpopularity of the government is not due to policies like economic austerity or other "tough decisions". Both of these might occur but might also be avoided with a new leader. LP can also defeat itself with plenty of policy trip wires.
Tories get next moves wrong and they will lose next election, possibly very badly. Get them right and they might even win it. Fall of BoJo is unprecedented and difficult to judge how deep and how lasting the collateral damage will be. In the eyes of many he will be a "one-off" and that could play to the Tories advantage. Any serious evidence against other cabinet ministers will make things trickier though.
Let's assume that Peppa is political bacon. We get another new PM outside an election. Potentially two if DFuckingR gets appointed interim. That's a succession of repeat elections and repeat unelected PMs. All because the Tories aren't happy with the democratic will of the British people.
Cameron? You voted the wrong way, I'm resigning May? You didn't vote Tory enough, let's have another election. Tory MPs? Nope we won't agree to anything. Off you pop Theresa. Boris. Send the AG into the Commons to Roar at MPs how a parliament elected barely a few years before is a DISGRACE and another another election is needed Tory MPs? Turns out Peppa is a lying twunt. Let's boot him out and impose another another PM! We definitely have a mandate
Sunak: you can trust the Conservative Party to stick to it's promises. Please vote Conservative.
The critical thing about the thumbs up 👍 thumbs down 👎 leadership vote is it’s a secret ballot. Anyone - cab ministers, supposed allies - can vote against PM anonymously.
To be fair to the Prime Minister, he did once end a Covid presser by saying we should all stay at home and he was looking forward to visiting his mother.
Don’t forget the one where he was supposed to launch a clear and simple five point scale and then started us off at level three-and-a-half.
The critical thing about the thumbs up 👍 thumbs down 👎 leadership vote is it’s a secret ballot. Anyone - cab ministers, supposed allies - can vote against PM anonymously.
There won't be a vote. He will fold when the 54 letters are in if not before
Nah, dragged kicking and screaming to the political scaffold. Johnson will go with even less dignity than Trump, but with a far smaller chance of a return...
Comments
New MPs spent much of pandemic in their constituencies, aren't close to their whips, just aren't that malleable
https://twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1483557751649357827
54% of Tory MPs even voted for Thatcher in 1990 despite the poll tax and polls also putting Labour 10%+ ahead, under current rules Thatcher would likely have survived as there would have been no 2nd ballot.
Removing a PM who has proved they can win a general election majority is no easy task, certainly midterm
I bet they have 200 plus already in a vonc
I have no idea what BF will do in the interim caretaker situation. The rules say they will go with the official webpage of UK Government as to name of current PM. But that page may make it clear May or other is 'caretaker'.
Just wish they would add Hague to their lists.
That’s why it is so dangerous if the 54 letters are hit. No one can predict what happens next.
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1483558032281853958
Your posting is a pretty pale imitation of @Leon's. You lack his biting wit, or correct use of punctuation.
You read like someone who chucked all @Leon's posts into GPT3 and attempted to use it to generate witty insults.
Dominic Fucking Raab
Be afraid
Boris has to survive until September (I think) to beat her time in No 10.
Genuinely interested in this question. As I believe he could be defeated by a quite laughable margin.
"No one warned me party was against rules, says man who set the rules"
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1483547028764475397?s=20
But if my Dad sees this as more pro business party taking back control, the problem is Brexit isn’t done.
When people post Brexit is done, that’s Boris legacy, it’s statement even unites Big G and HYUFD, I ain’t so sure. There is long way in two different directions Brexit can still go. Does Lord Frost and the party wing he represents think Brexit is done? Nope. Unless we now embrace freedom to break with the European social model they will call it Brexit not done, Brexit betrayal. Meanwhile there are those tory who would take Brexit in the other pro business direction, Remainer Mays softer brexit.
Those of you who like posting brexit is done and dusted, tell me I’m wrong. 🤔
'
He would be safe for a year, past the difficult locals this year and in 2023 the locals were so bad in 2019 the Tories might even make gains
Deputy PM is pretty new in constitutional terms. Not even sure if Palace actually accepts it exists as a constitutional thing. Happy for someone with more knowledge to pop up.
One-legged trans-gendered swimming champions standing on the podium?
https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1483560091592896517
Priority is quietly persuading colleagues "the game's up"
One MP states: "We just not prepared to have our own reputations tarnished any longer."
https://twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1483560771397300227
What kind of bobber doesn't know the rules when he is the person who signs off the rules and has gone repeatedly and endlessly on record saying how sorry you are for the rules?
He is over, gone, and the sooner you accept this the less pain you are going to feel
Today’s utter bullshit, “Nobody told me it was a party” has merely added more accelerant.
The polling and the emails and the front pages say something else.
The Tories are totally fucked, and only replacing Boris gives them the slightest hope of being un-fucked.
Tories now at the "All we need now is a deck of cards" sentry gun scene in Aliens. Only q is, who will turn out to be Hicks and Ripley? Already obvious that (my)newt is the CotE.
Either way, he's going to go down as a much worse PM than Gordie.
Tories get next moves wrong and they will lose next election, possibly very badly. Get them right and they might even win it. Fall of BoJo is unprecedented and difficult to judge how deep and how lasting the collateral damage will be. In the eyes of many he will be a "one-off" and that could play to the Tories advantage. Any serious evidence against other cabinet ministers will make things trickier though.
184 is all he needs, ie 50.4% of Tory MPs. He is then safe for a year.
Even if he loses a few of the 160 like Ross he will likely pick up a handful who voted for Gove in 2019, even if all the 77 Hunt backing MPs in the Commons still vote to VONC Boris along with the other half of redwall MPs and most of the Gove backing MPs
The perils of populism, eh?
One minute Poujade, the next minute Petacci.
Until last week they loved him for it...
Didn't know Mr Meeks had left though. I knew he was on the down low due to personal reasons, has he actually gone?
*I'm going to try to make the PH meetup in March on the basis that the drinks are probably free
The collapse started there.
It also feels like there is huge pent-up hatred for Boris. I’m reminded of the frenzied “shoeing” of the toppled Saddam statue after the fall of Baghdad.
But I do like the Cabinet Minister's judicious view of Northern Tories: "Most of them are a load of f***ing nobodies." I'm sure that'll bring the party together...
Cameron? You voted the wrong way, I'm resigning
May? You didn't vote Tory enough, let's have another election.
Tory MPs? Nope we won't agree to anything. Off you pop Theresa.
Boris. Send the AG into the Commons to Roar at MPs how a parliament elected barely a few years before is a DISGRACE and another another election is needed
Tory MPs? Turns out Peppa is a lying twunt. Let's boot him out and impose another another PM! We definitely have a mandate
Sunak: you can trust the Conservative Party to stick to it's promises. Please vote Conservative.