In the end, this is not about Boris Johnson, it is about the Conservative party. Its MPs and member knowingly chose a grifting charlatan to lead them and our country. They cheered him on, approved his attacks on our democracy and rights, tolerated his ceaseless lies. They own it all.
The literary god Sir Terry Pratchett had a version of Capability Brown in his world who designed stuff that was ludicrously wrong. He was called Bloody Stupid Johnson.
So, SKS has called upon the PM to resign, the PM has declined. Surely the next step is a VONC?
Yep, force every Tory MP to sign up to this nonsense.
A VoNC would be a good idea, though the technical nature of VoNCs is that the are about the government generally rather than the Prime Minister specifically, and with the repeal of the FTPA a VoNC that was successful would force a GE at a less than ideal time. This would allow Conservative MPs to support the government, whilst still not being happy about the PM.
Having said that, it's still good optics, and I would (as LOTO) have called one.
Professor Peston has looked at the email through his magic mirror..
Robert Peston @Peston Just to return to the party-invite email, ahead of the PM’s first PMQs since it was leaked to @PaulBrandITV, it is marked “OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE-No10 only”. Which means it is classified information. But it could only have been sensitive if the party broke the rules. Surely https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1481197686330064896
God that guy is a total bellend isn't he.
If you mean Peston I couldn't agree more. I met him once. He exudes complete and utter adoration for Robert Peston.
I posed a question on the previous thread whether it makes epidemiological sense to mass-vaccinate against this mild variant? (I'm not trying to be provocative – I don't know – I wondered whether experts such as @turbotubbs had a view)
I'm no expert, but it will make sense for immune naive people and those who are more at risk. As we are seeing covid is still killing people, some of whom will be in the vaccinated but at risk category, and some are unvaccinated.
It won't hurt to suppress omicron either, in terms on other effects. We are not seeing omicron vs a naive population, we are seeing it in the UK where most have protection against serious illness through prior infection/vaccination (B and T cells etc etc).
Not seen the data for this, but presumably omicron is now dominant virtually everywhere. Another variant would need to out-compete or re-infect omicron recovered people, and that may again be at a cost in terms of severity (might not be).
If original covid had been omicron then decisions about lockdown vs shielding may have been interesting. We don't really know what omicron would have been like without trained immune systems.
If original COVID has spread like Winne-the-Pooh then we would be looking at the aftermath - it would have been too quick for lockdowns to happen....
Yes, the effect on spread due to the difference in R between Omicron and Classic Flavour Covid is so huge that it is hard to grasp. The graph of case growth would just have looked like a vertical line.
An R of 10 (which I think is the lower bound estimated) in a naive population basically makes a mockery of the notion of "doublings"
I don't doubt any of that, but am still baffled how I have managed to avoid it, given I had a house full all Christmas (20 guests over ten days!) and visited double figures of busy pubs unmasked, then attended an absolutely belting NYE house party.
How is this even possible if (paging @FrancisUrquhart) man walks into a bar and 200 people catch it?
There is a lot of anecdotal evidence for some people having natural immunity to COVID. Or at least vastly different susceptibility to catching it.
Not surprising. I know someone who claims not to have had a cold in 10 years! Others get 5+ per year.
I posed a question on the previous thread whether it makes epidemiological sense to mass-vaccinate against this mild variant? (I'm not trying to be provocative – I don't know – I wondered whether experts such as @turbotubbs had a view)
I'm no expert, but it will make sense for immune naive people and those who are more at risk. As we are seeing covid is still killing people, some of whom will be in the vaccinated but at risk category, and some are unvaccinated.
It won't hurt to suppress omicron either, in terms on other effects. We are not seeing omicron vs a naive population, we are seeing it in the UK where most have protection against serious illness through prior infection/vaccination (B and T cells etc etc).
Not seen the data for this, but presumably omicron is now dominant virtually everywhere. Another variant would need to out-compete or re-infect omicron recovered people, and that may again be at a cost in terms of severity (might not be).
If original covid had been omicron then decisions about lockdown vs shielding may have been interesting. We don't really know what omicron would have been like without trained immune systems.
If original COVID has spread like Winne-the-Pooh then we would be looking at the aftermath - it would have been too quick for lockdowns to happen....
Yes, the effect on spread due to the difference in R between Omicron and Classic Flavour Covid is so huge that it is hard to grasp. The graph of case growth would just have looked like a vertical line.
An R of 10 (which I think is the lower bound estimated) in a naive population basically makes a mockery of the notion of "doublings"
I don't doubt any of that, but am still baffled how I have managed to avoid it, given I had a house full all Christmas (20 guests over ten days!) and visited double figures of busy pubs unmasked, then attended an absolutely belting NYE house party.
How is this even possible if (paging @FrancisUrquhart) man walks into a bar and 200 people catch it?
There is a lot of anecdotal evidence for some people having natural immunity to COVID. Or at least vastly different susceptibility to catching it.
So, SKS has called upon the PM to resign, the PM has declined. Surely the next step is a VONC?
Yep, force every Tory MP to sign up to this nonsense.
A VoNC would be a good idea, though the technical nature of VoNCs is that the are about the government generally rather than the Prime Minister specifically, and with the repeal of the FTPA a VoNC that was successful would force a GE at a less than ideal time. This would allow Conservative MPs to support the government, whilst still not being happy about the PM.
Having said that, it's still good optics, and I would (as LOTO) have called one.
As I said above, trouble is that the unfinished inquiry gives all the Tories a get out of jail card. I judge they have to wait until after Grey reports.
Adds the question where was Truss given that she was sat next to Boris at PMQs.
Saj I suppose doesn't want to be seen wielding the knife, ditto Truss. As for Zahawi, him batting for Johnson in recent weeks raises suspicions, as he's not really a contender is he? Never heard of the other bloke. Lickspittle or party raver?
I posed a question on the previous thread whether it makes epidemiological sense to mass-vaccinate against this mild variant? (I'm not trying to be provocative – I don't know – I wondered whether experts such as @turbotubbs had a view)
I'm no expert, but it will make sense for immune naive people and those who are more at risk. As we are seeing covid is still killing people, some of whom will be in the vaccinated but at risk category, and some are unvaccinated.
It won't hurt to suppress omicron either, in terms on other effects. We are not seeing omicron vs a naive population, we are seeing it in the UK where most have protection against serious illness through prior infection/vaccination (B and T cells etc etc).
Not seen the data for this, but presumably omicron is now dominant virtually everywhere. Another variant would need to out-compete or re-infect omicron recovered people, and that may again be at a cost in terms of severity (might not be).
If original covid had been omicron then decisions about lockdown vs shielding may have been interesting. We don't really know what omicron would have been like without trained immune systems.
If original COVID has spread like Winne-the-Pooh then we would be looking at the aftermath - it would have been too quick for lockdowns to happen....
Yes, the effect on spread due to the difference in R between Omicron and Classic Flavour Covid is so huge that it is hard to grasp. The graph of case growth would just have looked like a vertical line.
An R of 10 (which I think is the lower bound estimated) in a naive population basically makes a mockery of the notion of "doublings"
I don't doubt any of that, but am still baffled how I have managed to avoid it, given I had a house full all Christmas (20 guests over ten days!) and visited double figures of busy pubs unmasked, then attended an absolutely belting NYE house party.
How is this even possible if (paging @FrancisUrquhart) man walks into a bar and 200 people catch it?
There is a lot of anecdotal evidence for some people having natural immunity to COVID. Or at least vastly different susceptibility to catching it.
Right, that I didn't know. Would make sense.
There seems to be something like that for many infectious diseases. In the Goode Olde Days of the Black Death, people were noted for having spent months working in plague hospitals etc without catching it.
"The Nemi ships were two ships, one larger than the other, built under the reign of the Roman emperor Caligula in the 1st century CE on Lake Nemi. Although the purpose of the ships is only speculated upon, the larger ship was an elaborate floating palace, which contained quantities of marble, mosaic floors, heating and plumbing and amenities such as baths. Both ships featured technology thought to have been developed historically much later. It has been stated that the emperor was influenced by the lavish lifestyles of the Hellenistic rulers of Syracuse and Ptolemaic Egypt. Recovered from the lake bed in 1929, the ships were destroyed by fire in 1944 during World War II."
"Piston pumps (ctesibica machina: Vitruvius X.4?7) supplied the two ships with hot and cold running water via lead pipes. The hot water supplied baths while the cold operated fountains and supplied drinking water. This plumbing technology was later lost and only re-discovered in the Middle Ages."
"Each ship contained a rotating statue platform. One platform was mounted on caged bronze balls and is the earliest example of the thrust ball bearing previously believed to have been first envisioned by Leonardo da Vinci but only developed much later."
Almost as remarkable as their existence is that there was enough left of them to raise in the 1930s and to be destroyed in WWII (by air attack I assume).
Were they mentioned in I, Claudius, or am I confusing them with the games held on an artificial lake with ships manned by gladiators?
It is not completely clear how they were destroyed. There was an artillery exchange between the American and German troops in the area which the Germans blame for starting the fire (blaming US artillery). But a lot of Italians also say that the Germans set fire to them museum and boats on purpose as they retreated.
I posed a question on the previous thread whether it makes epidemiological sense to mass-vaccinate against this mild variant? (I'm not trying to be provocative – I don't know – I wondered whether experts such as @turbotubbs had a view)
I'm no expert, but it will make sense for immune naive people and those who are more at risk. As we are seeing covid is still killing people, some of whom will be in the vaccinated but at risk category, and some are unvaccinated.
It won't hurt to suppress omicron either, in terms on other effects. We are not seeing omicron vs a naive population, we are seeing it in the UK where most have protection against serious illness through prior infection/vaccination (B and T cells etc etc).
Not seen the data for this, but presumably omicron is now dominant virtually everywhere. Another variant would need to out-compete or re-infect omicron recovered people, and that may again be at a cost in terms of severity (might not be).
If original covid had been omicron then decisions about lockdown vs shielding may have been interesting. We don't really know what omicron would have been like without trained immune systems.
If original COVID has spread like Winne-the-Pooh then we would be looking at the aftermath - it would have been too quick for lockdowns to happen....
Yes, the effect on spread due to the difference in R between Omicron and Classic Flavour Covid is so huge that it is hard to grasp. The graph of case growth would just have looked like a vertical line.
An R of 10 (which I think is the lower bound estimated) in a naive population basically makes a mockery of the notion of "doublings"
I don't doubt any of that, but am still baffled how I have managed to avoid it, given I had a house full all Christmas (20 guests over ten days!) and visited double figures of busy pubs unmasked, then attended an absolutely belting NYE house party.
How is this even possible if (paging @FrancisUrquhart) man walks into a bar and 200 people catch it?
Some people do seem to be immune, of course vaccination helps. You might just be one of those lucky people or you never realised you had it. A large percentage of people have always been asymptotic carriers.
I have a friend whose kids have had it twice, she is a teacher who has never stopped face to face tuition throughout the pandemic, basically every kid in her classes has had it, she tests every day, and nothing.
It's a bizarre thing isn't it? But, you are perhaps right.
As for Zahawi, him batting for Johnson in recent weeks raises suspicions, as he's not really a contender is he? Never heard of the other bloke. Lickspittle or party raver?
Died in the wool fanboi
During the Brexit campaign he hosted BoZo and the bus in his constituency, it was his shoulder Nadine cried on the first time BoZo ran away.
I posed a question on the previous thread whether it makes epidemiological sense to mass-vaccinate against this mild variant? (I'm not trying to be provocative – I don't know – I wondered whether experts such as @turbotubbs had a view)
I'm no expert, but it will make sense for immune naive people and those who are more at risk. As we are seeing covid is still killing people, some of whom will be in the vaccinated but at risk category, and some are unvaccinated.
It won't hurt to suppress omicron either, in terms on other effects. We are not seeing omicron vs a naive population, we are seeing it in the UK where most have protection against serious illness through prior infection/vaccination (B and T cells etc etc).
Not seen the data for this, but presumably omicron is now dominant virtually everywhere. Another variant would need to out-compete or re-infect omicron recovered people, and that may again be at a cost in terms of severity (might not be).
If original covid had been omicron then decisions about lockdown vs shielding may have been interesting. We don't really know what omicron would have been like without trained immune systems.
If original COVID has spread like Winne-the-Pooh then we would be looking at the aftermath - it would have been too quick for lockdowns to happen....
Yes, the effect on spread due to the difference in R between Omicron and Classic Flavour Covid is so huge that it is hard to grasp. The graph of case growth would just have looked like a vertical line.
An R of 10 (which I think is the lower bound estimated) in a naive population basically makes a mockery of the notion of "doublings"
I don't doubt any of that, but am still baffled how I have managed to avoid it, given I had a house full all Christmas (20 guests over ten days!) and visited double figures of busy pubs unmasked, then attended an absolutely belting NYE house party.
How is this even possible if (paging @FrancisUrquhart) man walks into a bar and 200 people catch it?
There is a lot of anecdotal evidence for some people having natural immunity to COVID. Or at least vastly different susceptibility to catching it.
Not surprising. I know someone who claims not to have had a cold in 10 years! Others get 5+ per year.
I haven't had a single cold for at least seven years, maybe more. I have always been very fastidious about washing my hands however.
As for Zahawi, him batting for Johnson in recent weeks raises suspicions, as he's not really a contender is he? Never heard of the other bloke. Lickspittle or party raver?
Died in the wool fanboi
During the Brexit campaign he hosted BoZo and the bus in his constituency, it was his shoulder Nadine cried on the first time BoZo ran away.
He is a true believer. Sadly.
Pretty effective vaccines minister, which is why I backed as a potential next PM/Con leader.
Be funny as hell if the Tories got a BAME leader before Labour did, although he'd be the wrong kind of brown to be BAME.
"The Nemi ships were two ships, one larger than the other, built under the reign of the Roman emperor Caligula in the 1st century CE on Lake Nemi. Although the purpose of the ships is only speculated upon, the larger ship was an elaborate floating palace, which contained quantities of marble, mosaic floors, heating and plumbing and amenities such as baths. Both ships featured technology thought to have been developed historically much later. It has been stated that the emperor was influenced by the lavish lifestyles of the Hellenistic rulers of Syracuse and Ptolemaic Egypt. Recovered from the lake bed in 1929, the ships were destroyed by fire in 1944 during World War II."
"Piston pumps (ctesibica machina: Vitruvius X.4?7) supplied the two ships with hot and cold running water via lead pipes. The hot water supplied baths while the cold operated fountains and supplied drinking water. This plumbing technology was later lost and only re-discovered in the Middle Ages."
"Each ship contained a rotating statue platform. One platform was mounted on caged bronze balls and is the earliest example of the thrust ball bearing previously believed to have been first envisioned by Leonardo da Vinci but only developed much later."
Almost as remarkable as their existence is that there was enough left of them to raise in the 1930s and to be destroyed in WWII (by air attack I assume).
Were they mentioned in I, Claudius, or am I confusing them with the games held on an artificial lake with ships manned by gladiators?
I think they were mentioned.
The deep freshwater preserved them. The Romans did have their limits - they sheathed the ships in lead as protection against fouling/wood worm. Which wasn't required in fresh water.
But that also surprises me. Ships like the Mary Rose or Vasa raised from water need careful preservation because the timbers are so waterlogged. They're sprayed for years with a substance (?glycol?) to replace the water, eventually giving them enough strength to survive.
Did they have those techniques in the 1930s, were the ships just falling apart, or was it needed for some reason?
As for Zahawi, him batting for Johnson in recent weeks raises suspicions, as he's not really a contender is he? Never heard of the other bloke. Lickspittle or party raver?
Died in the wool fanboi
During the Brexit campaign he hosted BoZo and the bus in his constituency, it was his shoulder Nadine cried on the first time BoZo ran away.
He is a true believer. Sadly.
Will be interesting to see what the new Cabinet looks like and how it goes about trying to reset things. Give him his due, Johnson reset the political clock quite brilliantly after the Tory administration was getting tired and headed for the pendulum swing. Will be a difficult trick to pull off twice.
If you're fit and well, and have been previously exposed to Covid, there's a good chance the jab will give neutralising immunity whereas he'll get it again in 9 months time or so without vaccination. He's precisely the individual that vaccination will help stop the spread of the virus.
Nobody seems to be doing a good job of nailing exactly this. Prior infection + vaccination studies show is the most effective level of protection.
It's essentially a recursive argument, which is why I think it has difficulty being accepted. But the entire theory of herd immunity, and the antivaxxers favourite, 'natural immunity' are also basically recursive.
Gosh, that is impressive. I think there are about 3 people on her who really (want to) believe that it was not a party. They are part of a smaller percentage than those people who believe the moon landings were fake or that the earth is flat
"The Nemi ships were two ships, one larger than the other, built under the reign of the Roman emperor Caligula in the 1st century CE on Lake Nemi. Although the purpose of the ships is only speculated upon, the larger ship was an elaborate floating palace, which contained quantities of marble, mosaic floors, heating and plumbing and amenities such as baths. Both ships featured technology thought to have been developed historically much later. It has been stated that the emperor was influenced by the lavish lifestyles of the Hellenistic rulers of Syracuse and Ptolemaic Egypt. Recovered from the lake bed in 1929, the ships were destroyed by fire in 1944 during World War II."
"Piston pumps (ctesibica machina: Vitruvius X.4?7) supplied the two ships with hot and cold running water via lead pipes. The hot water supplied baths while the cold operated fountains and supplied drinking water. This plumbing technology was later lost and only re-discovered in the Middle Ages."
"Each ship contained a rotating statue platform. One platform was mounted on caged bronze balls and is the earliest example of the thrust ball bearing previously believed to have been first envisioned by Leonardo da Vinci but only developed much later."
Quite envious, aren't you? Just think of blagging a travel reporter's cruise on one of those, complete with grapes peeled by hand in real time by your choice of servant.
Edit: and JJ and I would have been asking for the full tour from bilges to crow's nest.
When we were about to get married on HMS Warrior, we asked a guide what would happen if we tried to climb the ship's rigging. His reply was: "Some nice armed men from the Dockyard will come and get you down."
We then asked if it had happened, and he said it had. Followed by "During on event, the nice armed men from the dockyard came over, chatted to one of the men on the deck, then told us not to worry; the men would come down from the rigging in their own time."
Apparently they were special forces, and the dockyards cops decided not to interfere with their fun...
Professor Peston has looked at the email through his magic mirror..
Robert Peston @Peston Just to return to the party-invite email, ahead of the PM’s first PMQs since it was leaked to @PaulBrandITV, it is marked “OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE-No10 only”. Which means it is classified information. But it could only have been sensitive if the party broke the rules. Surely https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1481197686330064896
It would have taken Robert 2 minutes to look up the designation and confirm, oh, actually it's "OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE"
I posed a question on the previous thread whether it makes epidemiological sense to mass-vaccinate against this mild variant? (I'm not trying to be provocative – I don't know – I wondered whether experts such as @turbotubbs had a view)
I'm no expert, but it will make sense for immune naive people and those who are more at risk. As we are seeing covid is still killing people, some of whom will be in the vaccinated but at risk category, and some are unvaccinated.
It won't hurt to suppress omicron either, in terms on other effects. We are not seeing omicron vs a naive population, we are seeing it in the UK where most have protection against serious illness through prior infection/vaccination (B and T cells etc etc).
Not seen the data for this, but presumably omicron is now dominant virtually everywhere. Another variant would need to out-compete or re-infect omicron recovered people, and that may again be at a cost in terms of severity (might not be).
If original covid had been omicron then decisions about lockdown vs shielding may have been interesting. We don't really know what omicron would have been like without trained immune systems.
Yes, was wondering whether it would be better to target the vax rather than do it universally?
Also not an expert, but this is how that kind of decision would normally be made: 1. Medical benefit: do the average individual benefits of vaccination clearly outweigh the risks 2. Cost effectiveness: what's the net health benefit compared to cost (and how does this compare to other things the money could be spent on)
For 1, it's probably a yes. Less obviously so if we were still using AZN given the clotting issues in younger people with low risk (although I don't think we know yet fully whether there's a clotting risk for people who already had one dose without problem). For vaccines we're using, likely a clear yes for the old/vulnerable, might be less clear for lower risk (from Covid groups)
For 2, less clearcut. Take a 20 year old and put a £20k value on a QALY (so £20k on a year of life at full quality). For a 20 year old who would otherwise die of Covid, the vaccination is worth say 60 QALYs so ~£1.2M. Say the extra vaccine dose costs £20, delivered (plucked out of the air, no idea how close). You can do 60k vaccinations for £1.2M, so you'd need a risk, without vaccination of 1 in 60k for death from Covid among 20 year olds to make it cost effective based purely on avoided deaths and saved life years. Don't have data to hand, but I suspect it's borderline for that. The qcovid calculator puts me (but age 20) at 1 in 500k risk of death so further vaccinating a 20 year old me doesn't look cost effective based on that (risk might be out of date). But, you then should add some more QALYs saved for people who don't die but get long Covid etc without vaccination and factor in the healthcare costs saved by vaccination from reduced hospitalisations (which reduces net cost of vaccination). Might get much closer to borderline.
There are other factors too, that normally don't come into cost effectiveness calcs (which are normally focused only on direct healthcare costs). Say vaccinating everyone will keep R below 1 due preventing infection and transmission at all. If you believed lockdown would be necessary otherwise then the effective benefit of vaccination goes far beyond healthcare costs and saved QALYs - you would be sensible to factor in the cost of lockdown on business etc versus the cost of vaccination.
"The Nemi ships were two ships, one larger than the other, built under the reign of the Roman emperor Caligula in the 1st century CE on Lake Nemi. Although the purpose of the ships is only speculated upon, the larger ship was an elaborate floating palace, which contained quantities of marble, mosaic floors, heating and plumbing and amenities such as baths. Both ships featured technology thought to have been developed historically much later. It has been stated that the emperor was influenced by the lavish lifestyles of the Hellenistic rulers of Syracuse and Ptolemaic Egypt. Recovered from the lake bed in 1929, the ships were destroyed by fire in 1944 during World War II."
"Piston pumps (ctesibica machina: Vitruvius X.4?7) supplied the two ships with hot and cold running water via lead pipes. The hot water supplied baths while the cold operated fountains and supplied drinking water. This plumbing technology was later lost and only re-discovered in the Middle Ages."
"Each ship contained a rotating statue platform. One platform was mounted on caged bronze balls and is the earliest example of the thrust ball bearing previously believed to have been first envisioned by Leonardo da Vinci but only developed much later."
Almost as remarkable as their existence is that there was enough left of them to raise in the 1930s and to be destroyed in WWII (by air attack I assume).
Were they mentioned in I, Claudius, or am I confusing them with the games held on an artificial lake with ships manned by gladiators?
I think they were mentioned.
The deep freshwater preserved them. The Romans did have their limits - they sheathed the ships in lead as protection against fouling/wood worm. Which wasn't required in fresh water.
But that also surprises me. Ships like the Mary Rose or Vasa raised from water need careful preservation because the timbers are so waterlogged. They're sprayed for years with a substance (?glycol?) to replace the water, eventually giving them enough strength to survive.
Did they have those techniques in the 1930s, were the ships just falling apart, or was it needed for some reason?
I beklieve the probvlem is as much the dimensional distortion when the water is removed by drying. The polyethylene glycol acts as a sort of solid water within the pores of the wood. Lots of hydrogen bonds etc.
There are a number of older ship finds - certain Viking ships, log canoes etc. which were made and collected before the PEG technique. Shellac might have been used - it was a common impregnating plastic then. But by 1929 it's possible that other plastics were avaiulable.
Other finds would have dried up and broken up so there is a survivor bias there, however.
Guardian: First, his argument that this was just a work event is implausible. Johnson more or less conceded this himself in his statement, when he talked about how “even if [the event] could be said technically to fall within the guidance ...” – a formula that implies he knows it didn’t. Keir Starmer was ready for this, and his response (see 12.07pm) was faultless. (Chris Bryant’s reaction was excellent too).
Second, apologies only work if people think they are sincere, and many people – probably most people – will not view Johnson’s apology as genuine. He has many qualities (which his opponents, at their cost, overlook), but honesty is not one of them, and he cannot carry off apologising with much credibility. This showed during PMQs by the speed with which he reverted to more partisan defence mechanisms.
It could have been a lot worse. Conservative MPs might have attacked him in the open; they didn’t. But they did not defend him on partygate either, and it felt very much as if the parliamentary party jury is still out. MPs, particularly those with marginal seats to defend, are sensitive to the views of their voters and many will probably want to see whether public anger is growing, or dissipating, before they take their next steps.
If any Labour MPs were hoping for an implosion, that did not happen. But that does not make it a disappointing day for the opposition. Although Starmer is calling for Johnson’s resignation, strategically that is probably the last thing Labour wants. Starmer gains most from having a discredited and reviled PM continue in office, and today that is what he’s got.
As for Zahawi, him batting for Johnson in recent weeks raises suspicions, as he's not really a contender is he? Never heard of the other bloke. Lickspittle or party raver?
Died in the wool fanboi
During the Brexit campaign he hosted BoZo and the bus in his constituency, it was his shoulder Nadine cried on the first time BoZo ran away.
He is a true believer. Sadly.
As most here will know I am not exactly a fan of Johnson, but Zahawi is an impressive individual. He will go a long way.
I beklieve the probvlem is as much the dimensional distortion when the water is removed by drying. The polyethylene glycol acts as a sort of solid water within the pores of the wood. Lots of hydrogen bonds etc.
HMS victory has warped due to be supported in all the wrong places in dry dock.
There is a project underway to fit new supports that will mimic floating.
I am sure the cost is astronomical, with each support being precision machined to high tolerances, but I was pleased to note the position of each support on the hull is noted with sticky tape and marker pen.
TBF it can be hard to tell the spoof from the real these days.
It is hard to think of someone who has destroyed a reputation for intelligence more over the last decade. He was once seen as a heavyweight intellectual, but he has been driven mad by Brexit. He has got so blinkered in his state of perpetual anger, he can't even tell an obviously humorous spoof right before his eyes.
Yes. I think A C Grayling has had an actual breakdown. Literally driven round the bend by Brexit
It is (genuinely) quite a distressing spectacle. We have a few sufferers - less severe, thankfully - on here. One day it must be medically studied. I am quite serious. I've never seen this mental phenomenon before, but it must surely have happened - great, unexpected and deeply unwanted events sending people loopy
On topic and the worry on Boris in charge of Nuclear weapons, given the only verification we have that are the same bodies who thought Iraq had WMD, there's every chance we don't have any either.
I posed a question on the previous thread whether it makes epidemiological sense to mass-vaccinate against this mild variant? (I'm not trying to be provocative – I don't know – I wondered whether experts such as @turbotubbs had a view)
I'm no expert, but it will make sense for immune naive people and those who are more at risk. As we are seeing covid is still killing people, some of whom will be in the vaccinated but at risk category, and some are unvaccinated.
It won't hurt to suppress omicron either, in terms on other effects. We are not seeing omicron vs a naive population, we are seeing it in the UK where most have protection against serious illness through prior infection/vaccination (B and T cells etc etc).
Not seen the data for this, but presumably omicron is now dominant virtually everywhere. Another variant would need to out-compete or re-infect omicron recovered people, and that may again be at a cost in terms of severity (might not be).
If original covid had been omicron then decisions about lockdown vs shielding may have been interesting. We don't really know what omicron would have been like without trained immune systems.
I think we can guess though. Let's look at what omicron is doing to the unvaccinated populations in the most vax-resistant States, such as Texas. Record numbers of children in hospital with COVID in Texas. Hospital occupation rates at highest yet.
My guess is that, while omicron might be inherently milder than delta and other antecedents, it is still a killer and it seems to be affecting kids more. Given its much higher transmissibility compared with Wuhan (R0 of perhaps 12 vs 2.6), I think had omicron been the first wave ripping through an entirely naive population, every hospital system in the world would have been overwhelmed.
Referee Janny Sikazwe blew the final whistle early twice during the 2021 Africa Cup of Nations fixture between Tunisia and Mali — initially ending the game 11 seconds before the 90-minute mark.
The game ended after 89 minutes and 49 seconds. Tunisia's coaching staff protested after the game, questioning the referee's decision to end the game on the pitch. The game clock is not shown anywhere in the Limbe Stadium in Cameroon, not even on big screens.
A full 20 minutes after the full-time whistle, Mali coach Mohamed Magassouba's press conference was interrupted by Confederation of African Football officials, with the implication that the final few minutes could place. However, it is not yet clear if this will happen — no final decision has yet been taken.
The Zambian referee had already blown up in the 85th minute of the match, before then being exhorted to carry on.
In between, Sikazwe gave Malian midfielder El Bilal Toure a red card for an innocuous-looking challenge in the 87th minute. He was asked to review the challenge by the video assistant referee and checked the pitchside screen, before staying with his decision.
Two controversial penalties were also awarded for handball. Mali scored their spot-kick while Tunisia missed, with Mali holding a 1-0 lead when the final whistle was blown.
Sikazwe refereed the 2017 AFCON final between Cameroon and Egypt, the 2016 Club World Cup final, and two games at the 2018 World Cup.
In 2018, he was suspended by CAF following a CAF Champions League match.
TBF it can be hard to tell the spoof from the real these days.
It is hard to think of someone who has destroyed a reputation for intelligence more over the last decade. He was once seen as a heavyweight intellectual, but he has been driven mad by Brexit. He has got so blinkered in his state of perpetual anger, he can't even tell an obviously humorous spoof right before his eyes.
Yes. I think A C Grayling has had an actual breakdown. Literally driven round the bend by Brexit
It is (genuinely) quite a distressing spectacle. We have a few sufferers - less severe, thankfully - on here. One day it must be medically studied. I am quite serious. I've never seen this mental phenomenon before, but it must surely have happened - great, unexpected and deeply unwanted events sending people loopy
Brexit seems to have affected you quite badly too. How are you feeling now? All that alien stuff? Can't be good subjecting oneself too all those conspiracy theories beloved of Brexiteers and anti-vaxxers. I am sure it will pass though.
"The Nemi ships were two ships, one larger than the other, built under the reign of the Roman emperor Caligula in the 1st century CE on Lake Nemi. Although the purpose of the ships is only speculated upon, the larger ship was an elaborate floating palace, which contained quantities of marble, mosaic floors, heating and plumbing and amenities such as baths. Both ships featured technology thought to have been developed historically much later. It has been stated that the emperor was influenced by the lavish lifestyles of the Hellenistic rulers of Syracuse and Ptolemaic Egypt. Recovered from the lake bed in 1929, the ships were destroyed by fire in 1944 during World War II."
"Piston pumps (ctesibica machina: Vitruvius X.4?7) supplied the two ships with hot and cold running water via lead pipes. The hot water supplied baths while the cold operated fountains and supplied drinking water. This plumbing technology was later lost and only re-discovered in the Middle Ages."
"Each ship contained a rotating statue platform. One platform was mounted on caged bronze balls and is the earliest example of the thrust ball bearing previously believed to have been first envisioned by Leonardo da Vinci but only developed much later."
Almost as remarkable as their existence is that there was enough left of them to raise in the 1930s and to be destroyed in WWII (by air attack I assume).
Were they mentioned in I, Claudius, or am I confusing them with the games held on an artificial lake with ships manned by gladiators?
I think they were mentioned.
The deep freshwater preserved them. The Romans did have their limits - they sheathed the ships in lead as protection against fouling/wood worm. Which wasn't required in fresh water.
But that also surprises me. Ships like the Mary Rose or Vasa raised from water need careful preservation because the timbers are so waterlogged. They're sprayed for years with a substance (?glycol?) to replace the water, eventually giving them enough strength to survive.
Did they have those techniques in the 1930s, were the ships just falling apart, or was it needed for some reason?
The fact that it was fresh rather than salt water would make a big difference. But it is still remarkable. The Vasa is actually a case study we were taught when I did Archaeological Conservation at Cardiff in the mid 80s. There were a lot of errors early on in the way it was conserved and they are still have significant issues today with iron salts and sulphides leaching out. Back in the 1920s and 30s when the Nemi ships were raised there were already some well known techniques for preserving waterlogged wood including bees wax impregnation, alum-glycerine impregnation and the surface treatment with tallowseed oil. The problem is that these techniques often caused warping as the preservatives could not get right into the centre of the wood and so there would be variable shrinkage. These days we use PEG (Poly-ethylene Glycol) at different concentrations
1. It's not credible that BJ thought it was a 'work event'. 2. Starmer was good; Chris Bryant was brilliant. 3. I think the "wait for the Sue Gray inquiry outcome" line was aimed much more at the Tory backbenches than at the opposition. BJ was playing for time, begging his troops to wait for the Gray report before getting rid, hoping that the report would have enough ambivalence to save him (and that the heat may have been diminished before the report is out).
I posed a question on the previous thread whether it makes epidemiological sense to mass-vaccinate against this mild variant? (I'm not trying to be provocative – I don't know – I wondered whether experts such as @turbotubbs had a view)
I'm no expert, but it will make sense for immune naive people and those who are more at risk. As we are seeing covid is still killing people, some of whom will be in the vaccinated but at risk category, and some are unvaccinated.
It won't hurt to suppress omicron either, in terms on other effects. We are not seeing omicron vs a naive population, we are seeing it in the UK where most have protection against serious illness through prior infection/vaccination (B and T cells etc etc).
Not seen the data for this, but presumably omicron is now dominant virtually everywhere. Another variant would need to out-compete or re-infect omicron recovered people, and that may again be at a cost in terms of severity (might not be).
If original covid had been omicron then decisions about lockdown vs shielding may have been interesting. We don't really know what omicron would have been like without trained immune systems.
If original COVID has spread like Winne-the-Pooh then we would be looking at the aftermath - it would have been too quick for lockdowns to happen....
Yes, the effect on spread due to the difference in R between Omicron and Classic Flavour Covid is so huge that it is hard to grasp. The graph of case growth would just have looked like a vertical line.
An R of 10 (which I think is the lower bound estimated) in a naive population basically makes a mockery of the notion of "doublings"
I don't doubt any of that, but am still baffled how I have managed to avoid it, given I had a house full all Christmas (20 guests over ten days!) and visited double figures of busy pubs unmasked, then attended an absolutely belting NYE house party.
How is this even possible if (paging @FrancisUrquhart) man walks into a bar and 200 people catch it?
There is a lot of anecdotal evidence for some people having natural immunity to COVID. Or at least vastly different susceptibility to catching it.
In our household we now accept that for some reason I am immune. There is no other explanation for my failure to contract the disease.
Perhaps you had a coronavirus common cold sometime in the past that gave you cross immunity.
Also, disease is a stochastic process. There is an element of randomness as to whom within a population gets it, even with no immunity. Within a very large population set, there will be some people who do not contract it, even though you'd expect them to.
Harry Cole @MrHarryCole · 49s here we go Quote Tweet James Matthews @jamesmatthewsky · 4m BREAK: Douglas Ross, leader of Scottish Conservatives, calling for Boris Johnson to go @SkyNews #PMQs #BorisJohnson
Mr. Leon, it may astound you as much (perhaps more) to know that the Colosseum was built using concrete (I think it was reinforced, but can't swear to it) as a primary building material.
The Romans didn't have reinforced concrete. For a start, iron/steel was far too expensive.
The Colosseum is mix - lots of rubble infill (with mortar) between walls. Quite a bit of concrete. Lots and lots of bricks...
EDIT: The Pantheon is the astounding one, for concrete. Complete with variable density concrete used to lighten the loads in the right places....
The Pantheon is the single most impressive building I have ever encountered. Simultaneously beautiful, serene, harmonious, and ageless - and yet technologically advanced to an extraordinary degree. It could be built today and you'd still say Wow
Other contenders
Hagia Sophia Temple of Hatshepshut Houses of Parliament (also technologically hugely advanced in their tine) Eiffel Tower (ditto) Angkor The Burj al Khalifa The viaduct at Millau Gobekli Tepe (if it counts as a "building") Teotihuacan The Greek temples of Sicily, Segesta in particular
Interestingly, none in the USA, which is full of marvellous buildings, but their greatest invention - the skyscraper - has been successfully adopted elsewhere and there are now better examples outside the USA - eg the Burj
I posed a question on the previous thread whether it makes epidemiological sense to mass-vaccinate against this mild variant? (I'm not trying to be provocative – I don't know – I wondered whether experts such as @turbotubbs had a view)
I'm no expert, but it will make sense for immune naive people and those who are more at risk. As we are seeing covid is still killing people, some of whom will be in the vaccinated but at risk category, and some are unvaccinated.
It won't hurt to suppress omicron either, in terms on other effects. We are not seeing omicron vs a naive population, we are seeing it in the UK where most have protection against serious illness through prior infection/vaccination (B and T cells etc etc).
Not seen the data for this, but presumably omicron is now dominant virtually everywhere. Another variant would need to out-compete or re-infect omicron recovered people, and that may again be at a cost in terms of severity (might not be).
If original covid had been omicron then decisions about lockdown vs shielding may have been interesting. We don't really know what omicron would have been like without trained immune systems.
If original COVID has spread like Winne-the-Pooh then we would be looking at the aftermath - it would have been too quick for lockdowns to happen....
Yes, the effect on spread due to the difference in R between Omicron and Classic Flavour Covid is so huge that it is hard to grasp. The graph of case growth would just have looked like a vertical line.
An R of 10 (which I think is the lower bound estimated) in a naive population basically makes a mockery of the notion of "doublings"
I don't doubt any of that, but am still baffled how I have managed to avoid it, given I had a house full all Christmas (20 guests over ten days!) and visited double figures of busy pubs unmasked, then attended an absolutely belting NYE house party.
How is this even possible if (paging @FrancisUrquhart) man walks into a bar and 200 people catch it?
There is a lot of anecdotal evidence for some people having natural immunity to COVID. Or at least vastly different susceptibility to catching it.
Right, that I didn't know. Would make sense.
Its been there from the start. Recall the original cruise ships? Not everyone got ill. Similarly there have been studies on households - why didn't everyone catch it from an infected person they were locked down (in) with? You can argue that the original covid was a lot less trasnmissable, and that is certainly true compared to omicron. But its likely there are factors unique to each person, such as the history of prior infections that may give some protection. And remember that covid presents a spectrum of severity too - there have been genuinely asymptomatic carriers throughout.
1. It's not credible that BJ thought it was a 'work event'. 2. Starmer was good; Chris Bryant was brilliant. 3. I think the "wait for the Sue Gray inquiry outcome" line was aimed much more at the Tory backbenches than at the opposition. BJ was playing for time, begging his troops to wait for the Gray report before getting rid, hoping that the report would have enough ambivalence to save him (and that the heat may have been diminished before the report is out).
I think the last part is what it is all about. The hope that everyone will be bored with it by the time she reports. Let's face it, if Johnson can be cleared of not breaking the ministerial code after his behaviour over the No10 refurb, he is hardly likely to get in any trouble over this sham report.
TBF it can be hard to tell the spoof from the real these days.
It is hard to think of someone who has destroyed a reputation for intelligence more over the last decade. He was once seen as a heavyweight intellectual, but he has been driven mad by Brexit. He has got so blinkered in his state of perpetual anger, he can't even tell an obviously humorous spoof right before his eyes.
Still, I can relate. Not to being a heavyweight intellectual Remainiac (since I'm not a Remainiac) but to how hard it can be to spot a spoof. Like, the other day I saw this bloke on the the telly - crazy blond wig, bizarrio voice & facial expressions, coming out with one lurid cartoonishly reactionary statement after another with barely a pause for breath. What a great send-up, I thought, making a mental note of the name, Fabricant, with a view to checking out some of his stuff on YouTube.
BREAK: Douglas Ross, leader of Scottish Conservatives, calling for Boris Johnson to go @SkyNews #PMQs #BorisJohnson
Good. Respected within the party but without a realistic shot at the leadership himself. Independently minded but not one of the usual malcontents. A perfect start.
I always thought that Boris becoming PM and Brexit would be disastrous for the UK, but as they seem to be on the verge of utterly destroying the Tory Party forevermore, I guess it's true that every cloud has a silver lining.
Harry Cole @MrHarryCole · 49s here we go Quote Tweet James Matthews @jamesmatthewsky · 4m BREAK: Douglas Ross, leader of Scottish Conservatives, calling for Boris Johnson to go @SkyNews #PMQs #BorisJohnson
Boris will save the Union by refusing indyref2, whatever Ross thinks
1. It's not credible that BJ thought it was a 'work event'. 2. Starmer was good; Chris Bryant was brilliant. 3. I think the "wait for the Sue Gray inquiry outcome" line was aimed much more at the Tory backbenches than at the opposition. BJ was playing for time, begging his troops to wait for the Gray report before getting rid, hoping that the report would have enough ambivalence to save him (and that the heat may have been diminished before the report is out).
Oh, and by the way - Boris apologised because he got caught, not out of genuine remorse.
Mr. Leon, it may astound you as much (perhaps more) to know that the Colosseum was built using concrete (I think it was reinforced, but can't swear to it) as a primary building material.
The Romans didn't have reinforced concrete. For a start, iron/steel was far too expensive.
The Colosseum is mix - lots of rubble infill (with mortar) between walls. Quite a bit of concrete. Lots and lots of bricks...
EDIT: The Pantheon is the astounding one, for concrete. Complete with variable density concrete used to lighten the loads in the right places....
The Pantheon is the single most impressive building I have ever encountered. Simultaneously beautiful, serene, harmonious, and ageless - and yet technologically advanced to an extraordinary degree. It could be built today and you'd still say Wow
Other contenders
Hagia Sophia Temple of Hatshepshut Houses of Parliament (also technologically hugely advanced in their tine) Eiffel Tower (ditto) Angkor The Burj al Khalifa The viaduct at Millau Gobekli Tepe (if it counts as a "building") Teotihuacan The Greek temples of Sicily, Segesta in particular
Interestingly, none in the USA, which is full of marvellous buildings, but their greatest invention - the skyscraper - has been successfully adopted elsewhere and there are now better examples outside the USA - eg the Burj
Grand Central deserves some consideration. But my vote will always go to Hagia Sophia.
FWIW, I think that is more than possible. Even a loss next year in the gubernatorial election wouldn't damage her because she would claim GA's new voting laws cheated her of victory (for a second time - her words, not mine).
Mind you, I did like this pithy summing up from AOC's former head of comms who now heads up a PAC:
"“[Biden's] deeply unpopular. He’s old as shit. He’s largely been ineffective, unless we’re counting judges or whatever the hell inside-baseball scorecard we’re using. And I think he’ll probably get demolished in the midterms. People will smell opportunity, and D.C. is filled with people who want to be president.”"
BREAK: Douglas Ross, leader of Scottish Conservatives, calling for Boris Johnson to go @SkyNews #PMQs #BorisJohnson
Good. Respected within the party but without a realistic shot at the leadership himself. Independently minded but not one of the usual malcontents. A perfect start.
Not a MP [edit] after next election. Bit of a problem.
Harry Cole @MrHarryCole · 49s here we go Quote Tweet James Matthews @jamesmatthewsky · 4m BREAK: Douglas Ross, leader of Scottish Conservatives, calling for Boris Johnson to go @SkyNews #PMQs #BorisJohnson
Boris will save the Union by refusing indyref2, whatever Ross thinks
Yeah, that’ll do the trick. All 3 monkeys at the same time.
Another Tory MP told me that in the tearoom the PM told him and colleagues 'it's not his fault and he's bravely taking the blame for others' - 'caused much consternation among colleagues' given that he'd just given a public apology https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1481291566731911172
Harry Cole @MrHarryCole · 49s here we go Quote Tweet James Matthews @jamesmatthewsky · 4m BREAK: Douglas Ross, leader of Scottish Conservatives, calling for Boris Johnson to go @SkyNews #PMQs #BorisJohnson
Boris will save the Union by refusing indyref2, whatever Ross thinks
Well, an old refrain, but makes a change from the Durdle Door obsession
Referee Janny Sikazwe blew the final whistle early twice during the 2021 Africa Cup of Nations fixture between Tunisia and Mali — initially ending the game 11 seconds before the 90-minute mark.
The game ended after 89 minutes and 49 seconds. Tunisia's coaching staff protested after the game, questioning the referee's decision to end the game on the pitch. The game clock is not shown anywhere in the Limbe Stadium in Cameroon, not even on big screens.
A full 20 minutes after the full-time whistle, Mali coach Mohamed Magassouba's press conference was interrupted by Confederation of African Football officials, with the implication that the final few minutes could place. However, it is not yet clear if this will happen — no final decision has yet been taken.
The Zambian referee had already blown up in the 85th minute of the match, before then being exhorted to carry on.
In between, Sikazwe gave Malian midfielder El Bilal Toure a red card for an innocuous-looking challenge in the 87th minute. He was asked to review the challenge by the video assistant referee and checked the pitchside screen, before staying with his decision.
Two controversial penalties were also awarded for handball. Mali scored their spot-kick while Tunisia missed, with Mali holding a 1-0 lead when the final whistle was blown.
Sikazwe refereed the 2017 AFCON final between Cameroon and Egypt, the 2016 Club World Cup final, and two games at the 2018 World Cup.
In 2018, he was suspended by CAF following a CAF Champions League match.
BREAK: Douglas Ross, leader of Scottish Conservatives, calling for Boris Johnson to go @SkyNews #PMQs #BorisJohnson
Good. Respected within the party but without a realistic shot at the leadership himself. Independently minded but not one of the usual malcontents. A perfect start.
Not a MP [edit] after next election. Bit of a problem.
BREAK: Douglas Ross, leader of Scottish Conservatives, calling for Boris Johnson to go @SkyNews #PMQs #BorisJohnson
Good. Respected within the party but without a realistic shot at the leadership himself. Independently minded but not one of the usual malcontents. A perfect start.
Not a MP [edit] after next election. Bit of a problem.
TBF it can be hard to tell the spoof from the real these days.
It is hard to think of someone who has destroyed a reputation for intelligence more over the last decade. He was once seen as a heavyweight intellectual, but he has been driven mad by Brexit. He has got so blinkered in his state of perpetual anger, he can't even tell an obviously humorous spoof right before his eyes.
Yes. I think A C Grayling has had an actual breakdown. Literally driven round the bend by Brexit
It is (genuinely) quite a distressing spectacle. We have a few sufferers - less severe, thankfully - on here. One day it must be medically studied. I am quite serious. I've never seen this mental phenomenon before, but it must surely have happened - great, unexpected and deeply unwanted events sending people loopy
Brexit seems to have affected you quite badly too. How are you feeling now? All that alien stuff? Can't be good subjecting oneself too all those conspiracy theories beloved of Brexiteers and anti-vaxxers. I am sure it will pass though.
lol
Did you see this?
"Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab - but feared debate could hurt ‘international harmony’
"Emails to Dr Anthony Fauci show ‘likely’ explanation identified at start of coronavirus pandemic, but there were worries about saying so"
"Leading British and US scientists thought it was likely that Covid accidentally leaked from a laboratory but were concerned that further debate would harm science in China, emails show.
"An email from Sir Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust, on February 2 2020 said that “a likely explanation” was that Covid had rapidly evolved from a Sars-like virus inside human tissue in a low-security lab.
"The email, to Dr Anthony Fauci and Dr Francis Collins of the US National Institutes of Health, went on to say that such evolution may have “accidentally created a virus primed for rapid transmission between humans”.
It probably came from the lab, as I have been telling you for 18 months. This was also the opinion of many leading scientists right from the start, as I have been telling you for 18 months. it was probably engineered in the lab to be more transmissible, as I have been telling you for 18 months. But for various reasons there was a high level conspiracy to cover this up and crush an extremely plausible hypothesis: lab leak. As I have been telling you for 18 months.
Feel free to look a total fool as and when you feel up to it
TBF it can be hard to tell the spoof from the real these days.
It is hard to think of someone who has destroyed a reputation for intelligence more over the last decade. He was once seen as a heavyweight intellectual, but he has been driven mad by Brexit. He has got so blinkered in his state of perpetual anger, he can't even tell an obviously humorous spoof right before his eyes.
Yes. I think A C Grayling has had an actual breakdown. Literally driven round the bend by Brexit
It is (genuinely) quite a distressing spectacle. We have a few sufferers - less severe, thankfully - on here. One day it must be medically studied. I am quite serious. I've never seen this mental phenomenon before, but it must surely have happened - great, unexpected and deeply unwanted events sending people loopy
Brexit seems to have affected you quite badly too. How are you feeling now? All that alien stuff? Can't be good subjecting oneself too all those conspiracy theories beloved of Brexiteers and anti-vaxxers. I am sure it will pass though.
lol
Did you see this?
"Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab - but feared debate could hurt ‘international harmony’
"Emails to Dr Anthony Fauci show ‘likely’ explanation identified at start of coronavirus pandemic, but there were worries about saying so"
"Leading British and US scientists thought it was likely that Covid accidentally leaked from a laboratory but were concerned that further debate would harm science in China, emails show.
"An email from Sir Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust, on February 2 2020 said that “a likely explanation” was that Covid had rapidly evolved from a Sars-like virus inside human tissue in a low-security lab.
"The email, to Dr Anthony Fauci and Dr Francis Collins of the US National Institutes of Health, went on to say that such evolution may have “accidentally created a virus primed for rapid transmission between humans”.
It probably came from the lab, as I have been telling you for 18 months. This was also the opinion of many leading scientists right from the start, as I have been telling you for 18 months. it was probably engineered in the lab to be more transmissible, as I have been telling you for 18 months. But for various reasons there was a high level conspiracy to cover this up and crush an extremely plausible hypothesis: lab leak. As I have been telling you for 18 months.
Feel free to look a total fool as and when you feel up to it
All of us can be fools and be fooled sometimes. To be fair I think few believe the Wuhan thing is that outlandish, though you are a bit obsessed about it. Tell us more about your theory on aliens, that is far more interesting.
Looks like Boris has found the real victim in this saga -
Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak · 6m Another Tory MP told me that in the tearoom the PM told him and colleagues 'it's not his fault and he's bravely taking the blame for others' - 'caused much consternation among colleagues' given that he'd just given a public apology
Mr. Leon, it may astound you as much (perhaps more) to know that the Colosseum was built using concrete (I think it was reinforced, but can't swear to it) as a primary building material.
The Romans didn't have reinforced concrete. For a start, iron/steel was far too expensive.
The Colosseum is mix - lots of rubble infill (with mortar) between walls. Quite a bit of concrete. Lots and lots of bricks...
EDIT: The Pantheon is the astounding one, for concrete. Complete with variable density concrete used to lighten the loads in the right places....
The Pantheon is the single most impressive building I have ever encountered. Simultaneously beautiful, serene, harmonious, and ageless - and yet technologically advanced to an extraordinary degree. It could be built today and you'd still say Wow
Other contenders
Hagia Sophia Temple of Hatshepshut Houses of Parliament (also technologically hugely advanced in their tine) Eiffel Tower (ditto) Angkor The Burj al Khalifa The viaduct at Millau Gobekli Tepe (if it counts as a "building") Teotihuacan The Greek temples of Sicily, Segesta in particular
Interestingly, none in the USA, which is full of marvellous buildings, but their greatest invention - the skyscraper - has been successfully adopted elsewhere and there are now better examples outside the USA - eg the Burj
Grand Central deserves some consideration. But my vote will always go to Hagia Sophia.
I forgot one definite contender: the Alhambra
Also maybe Durham Cathedral, its monumentality within and without is unmatched
If I had to choose an American contender it might be Taliesin West?
I've never seen Falling Water House but it looks marv and could make the list, but these are buildings I've personally visited
Mr. Leon, it may astound you as much (perhaps more) to know that the Colosseum was built using concrete (I think it was reinforced, but can't swear to it) as a primary building material.
The Romans didn't have reinforced concrete. For a start, iron/steel was far too expensive.
The Colosseum is mix - lots of rubble infill (with mortar) between walls. Quite a bit of concrete. Lots and lots of bricks...
EDIT: The Pantheon is the astounding one, for concrete. Complete with variable density concrete used to lighten the loads in the right places....
The Pantheon is the single most impressive building I have ever encountered. Simultaneously beautiful, serene, harmonious, and ageless - and yet technologically advanced to an extraordinary degree. It could be built today and you'd still say Wow
Other contenders
Hagia Sophia Temple of Hatshepshut Houses of Parliament (also technologically hugely advanced in their tine) Eiffel Tower (ditto) Angkor The Burj al Khalifa The viaduct at Millau Gobekli Tepe (if it counts as a "building") Teotihuacan The Greek temples of Sicily, Segesta in particular
Interestingly, none in the USA, which is full of marvellous buildings, but their greatest invention - the skyscraper - has been successfully adopted elsewhere and there are now better examples outside the USA - eg the Burj
I don't know, there is something to be said for the Empire State Building.
You could argue that there are bigger, more impressive, newer bridges out there than Tower Bridge, but that does not change the little frisson of excitement every time you cross it, knowing you're part of history every time you do.
I got that feeling walking into the Empire State Building, I have not been to the Burj but I doubt I would feel the same.
Another Tory MP told me that in the tearoom the PM told him and colleagues 'it's not his fault and he's bravely taking the blame for others' - 'caused much consternation among colleagues' given that he'd just given a public apology https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1481291566731911172
Brave Sir Boris taking the blame for others ...
When the history of the world is being summarised in a few centuries' time, this clown will be classed along with Incitatus. If he's lucky.
TBF it can be hard to tell the spoof from the real these days.
It is hard to think of someone who has destroyed a reputation for intelligence more over the last decade. He was once seen as a heavyweight intellectual, but he has been driven mad by Brexit. He has got so blinkered in his state of perpetual anger, he can't even tell an obviously humorous spoof right before his eyes.
Still, I can relate. Not to being a heavyweight intellectual Remainiac (since I'm not a Remainiac) but to how hard it can be to spot a spoof. Like, the other day I saw this bloke on the the telly - crazy blond wig, bizarrio voice & facial expressions, coming out with one lurid cartoonishly reactionary statement after another with barely a pause for breath. What a great send-up, I thought, making a mental note of the name, Fabricant, with a view to checking out some of his stuff on YouTube.
Thanks. I needed that. I’ll stop chuckling in a minute.
The betting is moving strongly towards him going. It's now 1.68 on a 2022 exit. I'd normally look to back into such a move in the opposite direction but I'm not sure I will this time.
Mr. Leon, it may astound you as much (perhaps more) to know that the Colosseum was built using concrete (I think it was reinforced, but can't swear to it) as a primary building material.
The Romans didn't have reinforced concrete. For a start, iron/steel was far too expensive.
The Colosseum is mix - lots of rubble infill (with mortar) between walls. Quite a bit of concrete. Lots and lots of bricks...
EDIT: The Pantheon is the astounding one, for concrete. Complete with variable density concrete used to lighten the loads in the right places....
The Pantheon is the single most impressive building I have ever encountered. Simultaneously beautiful, serene, harmonious, and ageless - and yet technologically advanced to an extraordinary degree. It could be built today and you'd still say Wow
Other contenders
Hagia Sophia Temple of Hatshepshut Houses of Parliament (also technologically hugely advanced in their tine) Eiffel Tower (ditto) Angkor The Burj al Khalifa The viaduct at Millau Gobekli Tepe (if it counts as a "building") Teotihuacan The Greek temples of Sicily, Segesta in particular
Interestingly, none in the USA, which is full of marvellous buildings, but their greatest invention - the skyscraper - has been successfully adopted elsewhere and there are now better examples outside the USA - eg the Burj
The Pantheon is certainly an amazing building and in the top 10, for sure.
There are a number of medieval catherdrals that deserve to be in there too - the difficulty is picking which one(s) as there are so many superb examples. I'd plump for Salisbury - an austere, unified beauty.
Because the medieval cathedral builders (unlike the Romans) didn't have proper concrete, the gothic catherdrals are a brilliant balancing act.
After today's so called apology I really believe conservative mps must use the next couple of weeks to sort out their next leader choice and on publication of Sue Gray's report, Brady needs to tell Boris to resign gracefully or the vonc will happen immediately
Of course this is the last thing the opposition want, despite their demands today, as a new leader and PM would be expected to receive a honeymoon period and the relief Boris and Carrie have gone will be palpable
I am very pleased with Douglas Ross demands for Boris to resign this afternoon and the more conservative mps do the same the more likely Boris will bow to the inevitable
I would just say that Boris leaving no 10 is not going to be the moment the UK mood to rejoin the EU is resurrected, as none of the main parties are going to go down that road, but it could herald a new relationship with the EU to the benefit of both sides
Harry Cole @MrHarryCole · 49s here we go Quote Tweet James Matthews @jamesmatthewsky · 4m BREAK: Douglas Ross, leader of Scottish Conservatives, calling for Boris Johnson to go @SkyNews #PMQs #BorisJohnson
Boris will save the Union by refusing indyref2, whatever Ross thinks
Yeah, that’ll do the trick. All 3 monkeys at the same time.
Boris is not going to be asked in the next month as he will be gone by then
TBF it can be hard to tell the spoof from the real these days.
It is hard to think of someone who has destroyed a reputation for intelligence more over the last decade. He was once seen as a heavyweight intellectual, but he has been driven mad by Brexit. He has got so blinkered in his state of perpetual anger, he can't even tell an obviously humorous spoof right before his eyes.
Yes. I think A C Grayling has had an actual breakdown. Literally driven round the bend by Brexit
It is (genuinely) quite a distressing spectacle. We have a few sufferers - less severe, thankfully - on here. One day it must be medically studied. I am quite serious. I've never seen this mental phenomenon before, but it must surely have happened - great, unexpected and deeply unwanted events sending people loopy
Brexit seems to have affected you quite badly too. How are you feeling now? All that alien stuff? Can't be good subjecting oneself too all those conspiracy theories beloved of Brexiteers and anti-vaxxers. I am sure it will pass though.
TBF he was king of the twats well before Brexit came along.
Comments
Very prescient of Sir Terry.
This would allow Conservative MPs to support the government, whilst still not being happy about the PM.
Having said that, it's still good optics, and I would (as LOTO) have called one.
During the Brexit campaign he hosted BoZo and the bus in his constituency, it was his shoulder Nadine cried on the first time BoZo ran away.
He is a true believer. Sadly.
Be funny as hell if the Tories got a BAME leader before Labour did, although he'd be the wrong kind of brown to be BAME.
Did they have those techniques in the 1930s, were the ships just falling apart, or was it needed for some reason?
All Brits
There was- 88%
There wasn’t- 4%
Con voters
There was- 85%
There wasn’t- 5%
Lab voters
There was- 96%
There wasn’t- 1%
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/health/survey-results/daily/2022/01/12/ccddd/1?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Daily_questions&utm_campaign=Question_1 https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1481283086969376773/photo/1
It looks more and more like what he did as vaccines minister was "not fuck it up"
We’ll talk about ⬇️
🎉Yet another accusation of a No 10 party
👨Confidence in the PM
💻 𝗟𝗜𝗩𝗘 𝟵𝗣𝗠 @itvpeston
📺 𝟭𝟬𝟰𝟱 𝗣𝗠 @itv
#Peston https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1481224203936403464/photo/1
We then asked if it had happened, and he said it had. Followed by "During on event, the nice armed men from the dockyard came over, chatted to one of the men on the deck, then told us not to worry; the men would come down from the rigging in their own time."
Apparently they were special forces, and the dockyards cops decided not to interfere with their fun...
1. Medical benefit: do the average individual benefits of vaccination clearly outweigh the risks
2. Cost effectiveness: what's the net health benefit compared to cost (and how does this compare to other things the money could be spent on)
For 1, it's probably a yes. Less obviously so if we were still using AZN given the clotting issues in younger people with low risk (although I don't think we know yet fully whether there's a clotting risk for people who already had one dose without problem). For vaccines we're using, likely a clear yes for the old/vulnerable, might be less clear for lower risk (from Covid groups)
For 2, less clearcut. Take a 20 year old and put a £20k value on a QALY (so £20k on a year of life at full quality). For a 20 year old who would otherwise die of Covid, the vaccination is worth say 60 QALYs so ~£1.2M. Say the extra vaccine dose costs £20, delivered (plucked out of the air, no idea how close). You can do 60k vaccinations for £1.2M, so you'd need a risk, without vaccination of 1 in 60k for death from Covid among 20 year olds to make it cost effective based purely on avoided deaths and saved life years. Don't have data to hand, but I suspect it's borderline for that. The qcovid calculator puts me (but age 20) at 1 in 500k risk of death so further vaccinating a 20 year old me doesn't look cost effective based on that (risk might be out of date). But, you then should add some more QALYs saved for people who don't die but get long Covid etc without vaccination and factor in the healthcare costs saved by vaccination from reduced hospitalisations (which reduces net cost of vaccination). Might get much closer to borderline.
There are other factors too, that normally don't come into cost effectiveness calcs (which are normally focused only on direct healthcare costs). Say vaccinating everyone will keep R below 1 due preventing infection and transmission at all. If you believed lockdown would be necessary otherwise then the effective benefit of vaccination goes far beyond healthcare costs and saved QALYs - you would be sensible to factor in the cost of lockdown on business etc versus the cost of vaccination.
There are a number of older ship finds - certain Viking ships, log canoes etc. which were made and collected before the PEG technique. Shellac might have been used - it was a common impregnating plastic then. But by 1929 it's possible that other plastics were avaiulable.
Other finds would have dried up and broken up so there is a survivor bias there, however.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/257515714_The_Vasa_experience_with_polyethylene_glycol_A_conservator's_perspective
Second, apologies only work if people think they are sincere, and many people – probably most people – will not view Johnson’s apology as genuine. He has many qualities (which his opponents, at their cost, overlook), but honesty is not one of them, and he cannot carry off apologising with much credibility. This showed during PMQs by the speed with which he reverted to more partisan defence mechanisms.
It could have been a lot worse. Conservative MPs might have attacked him in the open; they didn’t. But they did not defend him on partygate either, and it felt very much as if the parliamentary party jury is still out. MPs, particularly those with marginal seats to defend, are sensitive to the views of their voters and many will probably want to see whether public anger is growing, or dissipating, before they take their next steps.
If any Labour MPs were hoping for an implosion, that did not happen. But that does not make it a disappointing day for the opposition. Although Starmer is calling for Johnson’s resignation, strategically that is probably the last thing Labour wants. Starmer gains most from having a discredited and reviled PM continue in office, and today that is what he’s got.
There is a project underway to fit new supports that will mimic floating.
I am sure the cost is astronomical, with each support being precision machined to high tolerances, but I was pleased to note the position of each support on the hull is noted with sticky tape and marker pen.
Are we going to be watching the 469th Cummings-planned video in March 2024, with the Tories on 10% ?
It is (genuinely) quite a distressing spectacle. We have a few sufferers - less severe, thankfully - on here. One day it must be medically studied. I am quite serious. I've never seen this mental phenomenon before, but it must surely have happened - great, unexpected and deeply unwanted events sending people loopy
https://twitter.com/Pulpstar/status/1481278527785873418
Novax in front so far.
LOL.
Johnson told us at noon that there was a party in his garden and he attended for 25 mins.
My guess is that, while omicron might be inherently milder than delta and other antecedents, it is still a killer and it seems to be affecting kids more. Given its much higher transmissibility compared with Wuhan (R0 of perhaps 12 vs 2.6), I think had omicron been the first wave ripping through an entirely naive population, every hospital system in the world would have been overwhelmed.
Referee Janny Sikazwe blew the final whistle early twice during the 2021 Africa Cup of Nations fixture between Tunisia and Mali — initially ending the game 11 seconds before the 90-minute mark.
The game ended after 89 minutes and 49 seconds. Tunisia's coaching staff protested after the game, questioning the referee's decision to end the game on the pitch. The game clock is not shown anywhere in the Limbe Stadium in Cameroon, not even on big screens.
A full 20 minutes after the full-time whistle, Mali coach Mohamed Magassouba's press conference was interrupted by Confederation of African Football officials, with the implication that the final few minutes could place. However, it is not yet clear if this will happen — no final decision has yet been taken.
The Zambian referee had already blown up in the 85th minute of the match, before then being exhorted to carry on.
In between, Sikazwe gave Malian midfielder El Bilal Toure a red card for an innocuous-looking challenge in the 87th minute. He was asked to review the challenge by the video assistant referee and checked the pitchside screen, before staying with his decision.
Two controversial penalties were also awarded for handball. Mali scored their spot-kick while Tunisia missed, with Mali holding a 1-0 lead when the final whistle was blown.
Sikazwe refereed the 2017 AFCON final between Cameroon and Egypt, the 2016 Club World Cup final, and two games at the 2018 World Cup.
In 2018, he was suspended by CAF following a CAF Champions League match.
https://theathletic.com/news/referee-blows-for-full-time-early-twice-during-tunisia-against-mali-at-afcon/YkZsov7VyCeM/
1. It's not credible that BJ thought it was a 'work event'.
2. Starmer was good; Chris Bryant was brilliant.
3. I think the "wait for the Sue Gray inquiry outcome" line was aimed much more at the Tory backbenches than at the opposition. BJ was playing for time, begging his troops to wait for the Gray report before getting rid, hoping that the report would have enough ambivalence to save him (and that the heat may have been diminished before the report is out).
Also, disease is a stochastic process. There is an element of randomness as to whom within a population gets it, even with no immunity. Within a very large population set, there will be some people who do not contract it, even though you'd expect them to.
@MrHarryCole
·
49s
here we go
Quote Tweet
James Matthews
@jamesmatthewsky
· 4m
BREAK: Douglas Ross, leader of Scottish Conservatives, calling for Boris Johnson to go @SkyNews #PMQs #BorisJohnson
https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1481289622747496452
https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1481288767168290822
Other contenders
Hagia Sophia
Temple of Hatshepshut
Houses of Parliament (also technologically hugely advanced in their tine)
Eiffel Tower (ditto)
Angkor
The Burj al Khalifa
The viaduct at Millau
Gobekli Tepe (if it counts as a "building")
Teotihuacan
The Greek temples of Sicily, Segesta in particular
Interestingly, none in the USA, which is full of marvellous buildings, but their greatest invention - the skyscraper - has been successfully adopted elsewhere and there are now better examples outside the USA - eg the Burj
https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/589213-stacey-abramss-shocking-snub-of-biden-harris-signals-possible-2024
FWIW, I think that is more than possible. Even a loss next year in the gubernatorial election wouldn't damage her because she would claim GA's new voting laws cheated her of victory (for a second time - her words, not mine).
Mind you, I did like this pithy summing up from AOC's former head of comms who now heads up a PAC:
"“[Biden's] deeply unpopular. He’s old as shit. He’s largely been ineffective, unless we’re counting judges or whatever the hell inside-baseball scorecard we’re using. And I think he’ll probably get demolished in the midterms. People will smell opportunity, and D.C. is filled with people who want to be president.”"
Once the jokes get this easy Boris has a problem.
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1481291566731911172
Did you see this?
"Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab - but feared debate could hurt ‘international harmony’
"Emails to Dr Anthony Fauci show ‘likely’ explanation identified at start of coronavirus pandemic, but there were worries about saying so"
"Leading British and US scientists thought it was likely that Covid accidentally leaked from a laboratory but were concerned that further debate would harm science in China, emails show.
"An email from Sir Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust, on February 2 2020 said that “a likely explanation” was that Covid had rapidly evolved from a Sars-like virus inside human tissue in a low-security lab.
"The email, to Dr Anthony Fauci and Dr Francis Collins of the US National Institutes of Health, went on to say that such evolution may have “accidentally created a virus primed for rapid transmission between humans”.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/01/11/scientists-believed-covid-leaked-wuhan-lab-feared-debate-could/
It probably came from the lab, as I have been telling you for 18 months. This was also the opinion of many leading scientists right from the start, as I have been telling you for 18 months. it was probably engineered in the lab to be more transmissible, as I have been telling you for 18 months. But for various reasons there was a high level conspiracy to cover this up and crush an extremely plausible hypothesis: lab leak. As I have been telling you for 18 months.
Feel free to look a total fool as and when you feel up to it
Novax 85%
Boris 15%
Novax definitely miles better.
Laughing stock.
Sort of says - "own him"
https://twitter.com/john_actuary/status/1481272051621113870
Would have been a more honest question.
Laura Kuenssberg
@bbclaurak
·
6m
Another Tory MP told me that in the tearoom the PM told him and colleagues 'it's not his fault and he's bravely taking the blame for others' - 'caused much consternation among colleagues' given that he'd just given a public apology
Also maybe Durham Cathedral, its monumentality within and without is unmatched
If I had to choose an American contender it might be Taliesin West?
I've never seen Falling Water House but it looks marv and could make the list, but these are buildings I've personally visited
https://franklloydwright.org/taliesin-west/
NEW THREAD
You could argue that there are bigger, more impressive, newer bridges out there than Tower Bridge, but that does not change the little frisson of excitement every time you cross it, knowing you're part of history every time you do.
I got that feeling walking into the Empire State Building, I have not been to the Burj but I doubt I would feel the same.
This thread has been sent home by Boris
When the history of the world is being summarised in a few centuries' time, this clown will be classed along with Incitatus. If he's lucky.
There are a number of medieval catherdrals that deserve to be in there too - the difficulty is picking which one(s) as there are so many superb examples. I'd plump for Salisbury - an austere, unified beauty.
Because the medieval cathedral builders (unlike the Romans) didn't have proper concrete, the gothic catherdrals are a brilliant balancing act.
Of course this is the last thing the opposition want, despite their demands today, as a new leader and PM would be expected to receive a honeymoon period and the relief Boris and Carrie have gone will be palpable
I am very pleased with Douglas Ross demands for Boris to resign this afternoon and the more conservative mps do the same the more likely Boris will bow to the inevitable
I would just say that Boris leaving no 10 is not going to be the moment the UK mood to rejoin the EU is resurrected, as none of the main parties are going to go down that road, but it could herald a new relationship with the EU to the benefit of both sides