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Mayday! Mayday! – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,123
    edited January 2022
    Thank for the brilliant advice on Where to stay in Dubai, PB


    "Ugh!"

    "Watch a movie about rich people there"

    "You'd have to pay me to go there"

    "People from Ibiza go there"

    "Try Muscat instead"


    Brilliant. Really useful. You should all be travel journalists
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,989

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    HYUFD said:

    Labour to recommend devomax when Gordon Brown's report for Starmer concludes, with responsibility for policy in most areas except defence and foreign policy being given to Holyrood if Labour wins the next general election. Labour could also allow its parliamentary candidates to support Scottish independence on a personal conscience basis

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-may-allow-pro-independence-candidates-to-stand-in-scotland-2hpq3djvt

    This is either just a step towards full independence or a cynical attempt to buy SNP support for a minority Starmer govt.

    I really don’t see the point of devomax. It won’t satisfy those who want Indy and it takes Scotland further from the union for those who value the union.
    It's attempt to win over pro-indy voters, in an attempt to get a Labour majority. Starmer doesn't need to a formal deal with the SNP providing Labour (or Labour + Lib Dems) have more MPs than the Conservatives.
    He might still be screwed on ruling, though, where the SNP abstain on non-Scottish matters. I personally think a minority Labour government dependent on a rainbow coalition with a large minority Tory presence is going to be hellish for Starmer. The SNP's single agenda is going to be as poisonous as possible - to get to the point where the rUK says "well just fuck off then...." and get their next referendum to deliver it. Not their problem if Westminster grinds to a halt....
    If Labour has more MPs than the Conservatives the SNP abstaining on English legislation wouldn't screw him on ruling.
    If they don't, then the SNP might be willing to support on him on getting English legislation through the Commons... but they'd want major policy concessions (i.e. scrapping Trident) which would go down like a cup of cold sick with the electorate south of the border. I honestly don't know what Labour does in that situation.
    But is Trident really that popular in England?

    Only 18% of respondents in England and Wales were strongly supportive in 2013. Probably even fewer now. It is an incredible waste of taxpayers money, leaving aside the moral horror.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/310697/britains-nuclear-weapons-attitudes-in-great-britain/
    43% of voters in England and Wales want to keep nuclear weapons on those numbers, only 36% opposed.
    Hardly overwhelming support. Most English voters will go ‘meh’ when a government abolished them. Which is inevitable.
    They are a requirement for our permanent UN security council seat membership
    No they’re not. We - and 4 of the other 5 Permanent Members didn’t have nukes when they were established as Permanent.
    All 5 do now however, it is a key bargaining chip the UK and France have for keeping their permanent place alongside the USA, China and Russia
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Is Mister Sandpit here? Anyone else know Dubai?

    Am tempted to grab a couple of weeks in the sun, and the options worldwide are fast diminishing. Dubai is still open

    But I've only been once for a weekend so I don't know it at all. Does it have a district where you can find nice hotels in proper city streets with bars and restaurants and life? I don't want to have to walk out of my hotel and find myself in a car park by a freeway and I have to get Ubers to the nearest bar

    I don't care if it is by the sea or not...

    Watch Dubai - Playground of the Rich on BBC at 9pm tomorrow (following on from the Monaco programme in a similar vein)
    I wouldn't....its trash tv at its trashiest.
    Well Dubai does attract plenty of the trashy rich
    Mr Sandpit was very critical of that program though basically saying they have gone out and found the biggest dickheads they could find to produce a certain kind of show.
    Maybe but to be honest Dubai makes Essex look like a centre of high culture! The only books on sale seem to be autobiographies and self help manuals by the Sheikh
    I would need paying to go there and not a pittance either.
    Plus of course there are no secret police in Essex unlike Dubai
    First rule of the Essex Geheime Staatspolizei is that there is no Essex Geheime Staatspolizei.

    AS YOU WELL KNOW
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,995
    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    Is Mister Sandpit here? Anyone else know Dubai?

    Am tempted to grab a couple of weeks in the sun, and the options worldwide are fast diminishing. Dubai is still open

    But I've only been once for a weekend so I don't know it at all. Does it have a district where you can find nice hotels in proper city streets with bars and restaurants and life? I don't want to have to walk out of my hotel and find myself in a car park by a freeway and I have to get Ubers to the nearest bar

    I don't care if it is by the sea or not...

    Go to Muscat, Oman instead.

    Dubai is in the same box as Las Vegas for me. Having said that we did have a very nice family holiday a bit away from the city, in Fujairah.
    I visited quite a few times during Iraq 2. I worked my way through the 2003 graduating class of the Moscow State University Faculty of Prostitution and got in a fight with some dyspeptic British expats that was a fucking bloodbath. Five stars from me on TripAdvisor.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,989

    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    HYUFD said:

    Labour to recommend devomax when Gordon Brown's report for Starmer concludes, with responsibility for policy in most areas except defence and foreign policy being given to Holyrood if Labour wins the next general election. Labour could also allow its parliamentary candidates to support Scottish independence on a personal conscience basis

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-may-allow-pro-independence-candidates-to-stand-in-scotland-2hpq3djvt

    This is either just a step towards full independence or a cynical attempt to buy SNP support for a minority Starmer govt.

    I really don’t see the point of devomax. It won’t satisfy those who want Indy and it takes Scotland further from the union for those who value the union.
    It's attempt to win over pro-indy voters, in an attempt to get a Labour majority. Starmer doesn't need to a formal deal with the SNP providing Labour (or Labour + Lib Dems) have more MPs than the Conservatives.
    He might still be screwed on ruling, though, where the SNP abstain on non-Scottish matters. I personally think a minority Labour government dependent on a rainbow coalition with a large minority Tory presence is going to be hellish for Starmer. The SNP's single agenda is going to be as poisonous as possible - to get to the point where the rUK says "well just fuck off then...." and get their next referendum to deliver it. Not their problem if Westminster grinds to a halt....
    If Labour has more MPs than the Conservatives the SNP abstaining on English legislation wouldn't screw him on ruling.
    If they don't, then the SNP might be willing to support on him on getting English legislation through the Commons... but they'd want major policy concessions (i.e. scrapping Trident) which would go down like a cup of cold sick with the electorate south of the border. I honestly don't know what Labour does in that situation.
    But is Trident really that popular in England?

    Only 18% of respondents in England and Wales were strongly supportive in 2013. Probably even fewer now. It is an incredible waste of taxpayers money, leaving aside the moral horror.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/310697/britains-nuclear-weapons-attitudes-in-great-britain/
    43% of voters in England and Wales want to keep nuclear weapons on those numbers, only 36% opposed.
    Hardly overwhelming support. Most English voters will go ‘meh’ when a government abolishes them. Which is inevitable.
    Unilateral nuclear disarmament didn't exactly do Labour any favours as a policy when they last had it. There's a reason why Neil Kinnock chucked it in the bin following the 1987 GE.
    That was a choice. When they are abolished it will be because they have no option.
    They will never be abolished unless Russia, China and North Korea abolish them first and it is absurd to suggest otherwise
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited January 2022
    Leon said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    Is Mister Sandpit here? Anyone else know Dubai?

    Am tempted to grab a couple of weeks in the sun, and the options worldwide are fast diminishing. Dubai is still open

    But I've only been once for a weekend so I don't know it at all. Does it have a district where you can find nice hotels in proper city streets with bars and restaurants and life? I don't want to have to walk out of my hotel and find myself in a car park by a freeway and I have to get Ubers to the nearest bar

    I don't care if it is by the sea or not...

    Go to Muscat, Oman instead.

    Dubai is in the same box as Las Vegas for me. Having said that we did have a very nice family holiday a bit away from the city, in Fujairah.
    Why anybody would choose to holiday in Las Vegas is beyond me.
    Incredibly cheap hotels, subsidised by gamblers

    Also interesting art, some good restaurants, and the spectacular lights at night. And the glorious deserts all around..

    That said I wouldn't stay more than a few days, the relentless commerciality grinds you down
    I am not sure hotels are that cheap these days are they, unless you are going to be a total sucker and agree to play big at table games. Its been 10+ years since I have been, but they weren't last time I stayed at places like the Wynn.

    My understanding now is they add loads of extra charges on top, the parking isn't free, there are resort fees, etc etc etc, and it all adds up to the real price not really being cheap anymore, even if the sticker price might appear that way.

    Looks on expedia..

    Wynn

    Resort fee $45 / day
    Wifi in room $20 / day
    Wifi in public area $20 / day
    Parking $25 / day
    ....

    So thats $100 a night onto of the sticker price.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    London will be fascinating - there are one or two counter-intuitive trends which may yet ruin the planned narrative for the elections.

    I don't think the Conservatives will do that badly - the doom of the London Conservatives has been prophesied on many occasions. This time I see a mixed bag - it's quite possible Labour will regain Wandsworth and perhaps Barnet and it'll be interesting to see how Hillingdon votes but in some of the inner London Labour strongholds I think we could see some surprisingly strong Conservative performances which may not translate into many seats.

    I also think the Conservatives have some serious prospects of ending LD rule in Sutton and Kingston.

    Labour will hope to gain Wandsworth and Barnet and make progress in Hillingdon but most of their fortresses are impregnable though I think there will be odd losses to Conservatives, Greens and LDs.

    Havering is another borough where any Conservative losses might mean a change of administration.

    As said, the LDs may be in trouble in Sutton and Kingston but will hope to survive there and start re-building in the rest of the capital.

    The Greens have only 11 Councillors in the capital - they will be looking to build on that and possibly where they are challenging Labour in inner London might be their best chance of progress.

    Good post.

    I think the big success story in May’s elections will be the greens. They seem to be able to win everywhere at the moment. Is it young or new voters driving the Green election successes?

    On the other side of the argument, I think HYUFD is right and Big G wrong because there is neither a standard balanced local election battleground nor obvious conclusion from results. If HYUFD says this years battleground doesn’t suit Libdems that is good enough for me.

    It’s not actually libdems but Labour who seem to be making progress in national polls. The 35-40 lab Tory picture seems to have reversed since end October.

    As well as unbalanced battle grounds each year, how results went last time seats were up can also make for an unbalanced picture where it’s too easy to conclude the wrong take out. To be fair to Boris Johnson under Corbyn Labour seemed to have a lot of poor local elections even when the battleground should have suited them, which means Tories are in for some tough defences in this group of years? So glib conclusion is results verdict on Johnson being rubbish, which is true because he had been found out now, but any leader would have found defending the same position tough, is that fair to say?
    I’m actually convinced Johnson does not survive the next couple of weeks, let alone make it to May. It’s this wallpaper business very dangerous to him now. The Parliament standards lady says she won’t investigate. Labour squealing she should, Tories arguing it falls under Geet because it’s cabinet not MP matter.

    I reckon it can go like this. Saying she won’t investigate is good news for Boris. But if she changes her mind, and finds against him, he’s in Paterson position facing suspension which is even more than vonk it instant resignation.

    I may be the only person on PB seeing wallpaper for access bringing Boris down in next couple of weeks, but I don’t care, I think it can so easily happen like when country’s apparently sleep walk into war - the key question for those shaking your head at my post is to ask yourself, the Parliament sleaze lady who done for Paterson, not at moment investigating the Prime Minister, Why would she change her mind?
    Well, if your forecast is right, you'll earn fantastic PB bragging points.
    I’m not seeking bragging points. I’m more worried I have zero credibility for getting wrong what looks obvious. I just find it odd no one sees a PM tottering on brink after his own side put so much work in hollowing him out as I see it.

    Maybe I hsvn’t been around for many “falls” or turning points, do they tend to happen quickly and unexpectedly catching people out, or are they not all slow and painful as this ruin of Johnson?

    I am thinking on basis he will be talked up, and even make Boris great again initiative, to the point they can vote against him in secret, then he will be fortnight ago chip wrapper.

    Have I really got it wrong?
    Maybe you haven't. But talk is cheap. Money talks on here and I'll lay some down -

    £50 from me to site funds if the Muscly Magnificence is not PM on 1st Feb 2022.

    If he is, you write me a short poem with the phrase "wonder horse" in it.
    Not accepting that. It’s still going to take a bit longer than 1st Feb for Boris to be removed from No. 10 (and for someone to eye up the wallpaper and fancy a change to their style) even in my it’s very close now scenario. I did think of offering out a bet, it would be my 50 against your 50 not a poem, but I just feared there would be too many takers to be honest.

    I’m still not sure I’m right and everyone else on PB from right to left not right. But his own side have put so much effort into removing him asap, why would they want to wait till May and later now? Football club jobs come up not cause you waited for it to go well, but vacancy because their is new voice needed and work to do. Same with any business. Why would politics be different?
    Ah well, ok, if you're more saying he's going to be ousted this year and 'sooner rather than later' you're not alone at all on here. Indeed I was more alone when I said the opposite when all the shit was swirling pre-xmas - that he wasn't going anywhere and would be leading into the GE. I'd say opinion is split quite evenly on it now. Fyi it's about a 2/1 shot on betfair that he goes in 22.
    Let’s put our 50 pound on the 2-1 gone in 2022. I’m very confident about that much.
    Makes sense - you can maybe get slightly better since it's 3 vs 3.3 on the exchange. Do you have an account on there?

    Good luck with it too. I really hope you win, believe me. Love to see the back of him.
    Done it. Just my third ever political bet. Boris exit 2022 at double my £50

    Thank you Mt Kinabalu
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,123
    Dura_Ace said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    Is Mister Sandpit here? Anyone else know Dubai?

    Am tempted to grab a couple of weeks in the sun, and the options worldwide are fast diminishing. Dubai is still open

    But I've only been once for a weekend so I don't know it at all. Does it have a district where you can find nice hotels in proper city streets with bars and restaurants and life? I don't want to have to walk out of my hotel and find myself in a car park by a freeway and I have to get Ubers to the nearest bar

    I don't care if it is by the sea or not...

    Go to Muscat, Oman instead.

    Dubai is in the same box as Las Vegas for me. Having said that we did have a very nice family holiday a bit away from the city, in Fujairah.
    I visited quite a few times during Iraq 2. I worked my way through the 2003 graduating class of the Moscow State University Faculty of Prostitution and got in a fight with some dyspeptic British expats that was a fucking bloodbath. Five stars from me on TripAdvisor.
    Muscat or Dubai?


    Sounds like Dubai. Not many high class hookers in Muscat
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,123

    Leon said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    Is Mister Sandpit here? Anyone else know Dubai?

    Am tempted to grab a couple of weeks in the sun, and the options worldwide are fast diminishing. Dubai is still open

    But I've only been once for a weekend so I don't know it at all. Does it have a district where you can find nice hotels in proper city streets with bars and restaurants and life? I don't want to have to walk out of my hotel and find myself in a car park by a freeway and I have to get Ubers to the nearest bar

    I don't care if it is by the sea or not...

    Go to Muscat, Oman instead.

    Dubai is in the same box as Las Vegas for me. Having said that we did have a very nice family holiday a bit away from the city, in Fujairah.
    Why anybody would choose to holiday in Las Vegas is beyond me.
    Incredibly cheap hotels, subsidised by gamblers

    Also interesting art, some good restaurants, and the spectacular lights at night. And the glorious deserts all around..

    That said I wouldn't stay more than a few days, the relentless commerciality grinds you down
    I am not sure hotels are that cheap these days are they, unless you are going to be a total sucker and agree to play big at table games. Its been 10+ years since I have been, but they weren't last time I stayed at places like the Wynn.

    My understanding now is they add loads of extra charges on top, the parking isn't free, there are resort fees, etc etc etc, and it all adds up to the real price not really being cheap anymore, even if the sticker price might appear that way.

    Looks on expedia..

    Wynn

    Resort fee $45 / day
    Wifi in room $20 / day
    Wifi in public area $20 / day
    Parking $25 / day
    ....

    So thats $100 a night onto of the sticker price.
    Yeah but they have Damian Hirst sharks in the bar. Or at least they did in the one I stayed at in 2019. And the penthouse suite has a fridge literally packed with diamonds, also by Hirst

    Can't put a price on that
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    London will be fascinating - there are one or two counter-intuitive trends which may yet ruin the planned narrative for the elections.

    I don't think the Conservatives will do that badly - the doom of the London Conservatives has been prophesied on many occasions. This time I see a mixed bag - it's quite possible Labour will regain Wandsworth and perhaps Barnet and it'll be interesting to see how Hillingdon votes but in some of the inner London Labour strongholds I think we could see some surprisingly strong Conservative performances which may not translate into many seats.

    I also think the Conservatives have some serious prospects of ending LD rule in Sutton and Kingston.

    Labour will hope to gain Wandsworth and Barnet and make progress in Hillingdon but most of their fortresses are impregnable though I think there will be odd losses to Conservatives, Greens and LDs.

    Havering is another borough where any Conservative losses might mean a change of administration.

    As said, the LDs may be in trouble in Sutton and Kingston but will hope to survive there and start re-building in the rest of the capital.

    The Greens have only 11 Councillors in the capital - they will be looking to build on that and possibly where they are challenging Labour in inner London might be their best chance of progress.

    Good post.

    I think the big success story in May’s elections will be the greens. They seem to be able to win everywhere at the moment. Is it young or new voters driving the Green election successes?

    On the other side of the argument, I think HYUFD is right and Big G wrong because there is neither a standard balanced local election battleground nor obvious conclusion from results. If HYUFD says this years battleground doesn’t suit Libdems that is good enough for me.

    It’s not actually libdems but Labour who seem to be making progress in national polls. The 35-40 lab Tory picture seems to have reversed since end October.

    As well as unbalanced battle grounds each year, how results went last time seats were up can also make for an unbalanced picture where it’s too easy to conclude the wrong take out. To be fair to Boris Johnson under Corbyn Labour seemed to have a lot of poor local elections even when the battleground should have suited them, which means Tories are in for some tough defences in this group of years? So glib conclusion is results verdict on Johnson being rubbish, which is true because he had been found out now, but any leader would have found defending the same position tough, is that fair to say?
    I’m actually convinced Johnson does not survive the next couple of weeks, let alone make it to May. It’s this wallpaper business very dangerous to him now. The Parliament standards lady says she won’t investigate. Labour squealing she should, Tories arguing it falls under Geet because it’s cabinet not MP matter.

    I reckon it can go like this. Saying she won’t investigate is good news for Boris. But if she changes her mind, and finds against him, he’s in Paterson position facing suspension which is even more than vonk it instant resignation.

    I may be the only person on PB seeing wallpaper for access bringing Boris down in next couple of weeks, but I don’t care, I think it can so easily happen like when country’s apparently sleep walk into war - the key question for those shaking your head at my post is to ask yourself, the Parliament sleaze lady who done for Paterson, not at moment investigating the Prime Minister, Why would she change her mind?
    Well, if your forecast is right, you'll earn fantastic PB bragging points.
    I’m not seeking bragging points. I’m more worried I have zero credibility for getting wrong what looks obvious. I just find it odd no one sees a PM tottering on brink after his own side put so much work in hollowing him out as I see it.

    Maybe I hsvn’t been around for many “falls” or turning points, do they tend to happen quickly and unexpectedly catching people out, or are they not all slow and painful as this ruin of Johnson?

    I am thinking on basis he will be talked up, and even make Boris great again initiative, to the point they can vote against him in secret, then he will be fortnight ago chip wrapper.

    Have I really got it wrong?
    Maybe you haven't. But talk is cheap. Money talks on here and I'll lay some down -

    £50 from me to site funds if the Muscly Magnificence is not PM on 1st Feb 2022.

    If he is, you write me a short poem with the phrase "wonder horse" in it.
    Not accepting that. It’s still going to take a bit longer than 1st Feb for Boris to be removed from No. 10 (and for someone to eye up the wallpaper and fancy a change to their style) even in my it’s very close now scenario. I did think of offering out a bet, it would be my 50 against your 50 not a poem, but I just feared there would be too many takers to be honest.

    I’m still not sure I’m right and everyone else on PB from right to left not right. But his own side have put so much effort into removing him asap, why would they want to wait till May and later now? Football club jobs come up not cause you waited for it to go well, but vacancy because their is new voice needed and work to do. Same with any business. Why would politics be different?
    The answer to removing him remains entirely with his mps and at present they seem to be on board with him
    You say they are on board with him based on what? Surely ahead of a secret ballot he loses comprehensively he gets over 300 public votes of support from them and lots of PMQ support either side that vote?

    If you look on YouTube at Margaret Thatchers “I’m enjoying this, I’m enjoying this” turn on the commons, all her MPs are right behind her and loving it. They’ve just sacked her! Or I might be wrong, that is a different time when she was more popular?
    At the moment, it looks like there are lots of people who think "X would be better than Boris", and at some level they're right. But with different X's. We haven't reached the point of "Anyone would be better than Boris", which is when Boris really needs to worry.

    As long as he can play the pretenders off against each other, he's fine.
    Goodness - you make it sound like the Borgias!
  • Options
    Leon said:

    Thank for the brilliant advice on Where to stay in Dubai, PB


    "Ugh!"

    "Watch a movie about rich people there"

    "You'd have to pay me to go there"

    "People from Ibiza go there"

    "Try Muscat instead"


    Brilliant. Really useful. You should all be travel journalists

    That's why Butt Plugs Quarterly pays you the big bucks.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,361
    edited January 2022
    Leon said:

    Thank for the brilliant advice on Where to stay in Dubai, PB


    "Ugh!"

    "Watch a movie about rich people there"

    "You'd have to pay me to go there"

    "People from Ibiza go there"

    "Try Muscat instead"


    Brilliant. Really useful. You should all be travel journalists

    Mate's boy lives there but the only thing I can remember is stay indoors where it is air-conditioned. There is horseracing at Meydan on Fridays and Jebel Ali every other Saturday. No betting but probably free prizes based on picking winners.
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    Is Mister Sandpit here? Anyone else know Dubai?

    Am tempted to grab a couple of weeks in the sun, and the options worldwide are fast diminishing. Dubai is still open

    But I've only been once for a weekend so I don't know it at all. Does it have a district where you can find nice hotels in proper city streets with bars and restaurants and life? I don't want to have to walk out of my hotel and find myself in a car park by a freeway and I have to get Ubers to the nearest bar

    I don't care if it is by the sea or not...

    Go to Muscat, Oman instead.

    Dubai is in the same box as Las Vegas for me. Having said that we did have a very nice family holiday a bit away from the city, in Fujairah.
    I visited quite a few times during Iraq 2. I worked my way through the 2003 graduating class of the Moscow State University Faculty of Prostitution and got in a fight with some dyspeptic British expats that was a fucking bloodbath. Five stars from me on TripAdvisor.
    Muscat or Dubai?


    Sounds like Dubai. Not many high class hookers in Muscat
    You can fly direct, and cheap, to Cape Verde if you can bear the ignominy of flying TUI
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    London will be fascinating - there are one or two counter-intuitive trends which may yet ruin the planned narrative for the elections.

    I don't think the Conservatives will do that badly - the doom of the London Conservatives has been prophesied on many occasions. This time I see a mixed bag - it's quite possible Labour will regain Wandsworth and perhaps Barnet and it'll be interesting to see how Hillingdon votes but in some of the inner London Labour strongholds I think we could see some surprisingly strong Conservative performances which may not translate into many seats.

    I also think the Conservatives have some serious prospects of ending LD rule in Sutton and Kingston.

    Labour will hope to gain Wandsworth and Barnet and make progress in Hillingdon but most of their fortresses are impregnable though I think there will be odd losses to Conservatives, Greens and LDs.

    Havering is another borough where any Conservative losses might mean a change of administration.

    As said, the LDs may be in trouble in Sutton and Kingston but will hope to survive there and start re-building in the rest of the capital.

    The Greens have only 11 Councillors in the capital - they will be looking to build on that and possibly where they are challenging Labour in inner London might be their best chance of progress.

    Good post.

    I think the big success story in May’s elections will be the greens. They seem to be able to win everywhere at the moment. Is it young or new voters driving the Green election successes?

    On the other side of the argument, I think HYUFD is right and Big G wrong because there is neither a standard balanced local election battleground nor obvious conclusion from results. If HYUFD says this years battleground doesn’t suit Libdems that is good enough for me.

    It’s not actually libdems but Labour who seem to be making progress in national polls. The 35-40 lab Tory picture seems to have reversed since end October.

    As well as unbalanced battle grounds each year, how results went last time seats were up can also make for an unbalanced picture where it’s too easy to conclude the wrong take out. To be fair to Boris Johnson under Corbyn Labour seemed to have a lot of poor local elections even when the battleground should have suited them, which means Tories are in for some tough defences in this group of years? So glib conclusion is results verdict on Johnson being rubbish, which is true because he had been found out now, but any leader would have found defending the same position tough, is that fair to say?
    I’m actually convinced Johnson does not survive the next couple of weeks, let alone make it to May. It’s this wallpaper business very dangerous to him now. The Parliament standards lady says she won’t investigate. Labour squealing she should, Tories arguing it falls under Geet because it’s cabinet not MP matter.

    I reckon it can go like this. Saying she won’t investigate is good news for Boris. But if she changes her mind, and finds against him, he’s in Paterson position facing suspension which is even more than vonk it instant resignation.

    I may be the only person on PB seeing wallpaper for access bringing Boris down in next couple of weeks, but I don’t care, I think it can so easily happen like when country’s apparently sleep walk into war - the key question for those shaking your head at my post is to ask yourself, the Parliament sleaze lady who done for Paterson, not at moment investigating the Prime Minister, Why would she change her mind?
    Well, if your forecast is right, you'll earn fantastic PB bragging points.
    I’m not seeking bragging points. I’m more worried I have zero credibility for getting wrong what looks obvious. I just find it odd no one sees a PM tottering on brink after his own side put so much work in hollowing him out as I see it.

    Maybe I hsvn’t been around for many “falls” or turning points, do they tend to happen quickly and unexpectedly catching people out, or are they not all slow and painful as this ruin of Johnson?

    I am thinking on basis he will be talked up, and even make Boris great again initiative, to the point they can vote against him in secret, then he will be fortnight ago chip wrapper.

    Have I really got it wrong?
    Maybe you haven't. But talk is cheap. Money talks on here and I'll lay some down -

    £50 from me to site funds if the Muscly Magnificence is not PM on 1st Feb 2022.

    If he is, you write me a short poem with the phrase "wonder horse" in it.
    Not accepting that. It’s still going to take a bit longer than 1st Feb for Boris to be removed from No. 10 (and for someone to eye up the wallpaper and fancy a change to their style) even in my it’s very close now scenario. I did think of offering out a bet, it would be my 50 against your 50 not a poem, but I just feared there would be too many takers to be honest.

    I’m still not sure I’m right and everyone else on PB from right to left not right. But his own side have put so much effort into removing him asap, why would they want to wait till May and later now? Football club jobs come up not cause you waited for it to go well, but vacancy because their is new voice needed and work to do. Same with any business. Why would politics be different?
    Ah well, ok, if you're more saying he's going to be ousted this year and 'sooner rather than later' you're not alone at all on here. Indeed I was more alone when I said the opposite when all the shit was swirling pre-xmas - that he wasn't going anywhere and would be leading into the GE. I'd say opinion is split quite evenly on it now. Fyi it's about a 2/1 shot on betfair that he goes in 22.
    Let’s put our 50 pound on the 2-1 gone in 2022. I’m very confident about that much.
    Makes sense - you can maybe get slightly better since it's 3 vs 3.3 on the exchange. Do you have an account on there?

    Good luck with it too. I really hope you win, believe me. Love to see the back of him.
    Done it. Just my third ever political bet. Boris exit 2022 at double my £50

    Thank you Mt Kinabalu
    Nice one. A good bet for someone with your view. And just to be 1000% sure we're on the same page - that's your bet done with them not with me. We remain unsullied by commercial ties or financial obligation.
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Is Mister Sandpit here? Anyone else know Dubai?

    Am tempted to grab a couple of weeks in the sun, and the options worldwide are fast diminishing. Dubai is still open

    But I've only been once for a weekend so I don't know it at all. Does it have a district where you can find nice hotels in proper city streets with bars and restaurants and life? I don't want to have to walk out of my hotel and find myself in a car park by a freeway and I have to get Ubers to the nearest bar

    I don't care if it is by the sea or not...

    Watch Dubai - Playground of the Rich on BBC at 9pm tomorrow (following on from the Monaco programme in a similar vein)
    I wouldn't....its trash tv at its trashiest.
    Well Dubai does attract plenty of the trashy rich
    Mr Sandpit was very critical of that program though basically saying they have gone out and found the biggest dickheads they could find to produce a certain kind of show.
    Maybe but to be honest Dubai makes Essex look like a centre of high culture! The only books on sale seem to be autobiographies and self help manuals by the Sheikh
    https://thedubaimall.com/en/shop/kinokuniya

    Not sure how much you plan on reading but half a million books in this one bookshop alone.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,923
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Is Mister Sandpit here? Anyone else know Dubai?

    Am tempted to grab a couple of weeks in the sun, and the options worldwide are fast diminishing. Dubai is still open

    But I've only been once for a weekend so I don't know it at all. Does it have a district where you can find nice hotels in proper city streets with bars and restaurants and life? I don't want to have to walk out of my hotel and find myself in a car park by a freeway and I have to get Ubers to the nearest bar

    I don't care if it is by the sea or not...

    Watch Dubai - Playground of the Rich on BBC at 9pm tomorrow (following on from the Monaco programme in a similar vein)
    I wouldn't....its trash tv at its trashiest.
    Well Dubai does attract plenty of the trashy rich
    Mr Sandpit was very critical of that program though basically saying they have gone out and found the biggest dickheads they could find to produce a certain kind of show.
    Maybe but to be honest Dubai makes Essex look like a centre of high culture! The only books on sale seem to be autobiographies and self help manuals by the Sheikh
    I would need paying to go there and not a pittance either.
    Ditto
  • Options
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    Is Mister Sandpit here? Anyone else know Dubai?

    Am tempted to grab a couple of weeks in the sun, and the options worldwide are fast diminishing. Dubai is still open

    But I've only been once for a weekend so I don't know it at all. Does it have a district where you can find nice hotels in proper city streets with bars and restaurants and life? I don't want to have to walk out of my hotel and find myself in a car park by a freeway and I have to get Ubers to the nearest bar

    I don't care if it is by the sea or not...

    Go to Muscat, Oman instead.

    Dubai is in the same box as Las Vegas for me. Having said that we did have a very nice family holiday a bit away from the city, in Fujairah.
    Why anybody would choose to holiday in Las Vegas is beyond me.
    Incredibly cheap hotels, subsidised by gamblers

    Also interesting art, some good restaurants, and the spectacular lights at night. And the glorious deserts all around..

    That said I wouldn't stay more than a few days, the relentless commerciality grinds you down
    I am not sure hotels are that cheap these days are they, unless you are going to be a total sucker and agree to play big at table games. Its been 10+ years since I have been, but they weren't last time I stayed at places like the Wynn.

    My understanding now is they add loads of extra charges on top, the parking isn't free, there are resort fees, etc etc etc, and it all adds up to the real price not really being cheap anymore, even if the sticker price might appear that way.

    Looks on expedia..

    Wynn

    Resort fee $45 / day
    Wifi in room $20 / day
    Wifi in public area $20 / day
    Parking $25 / day
    ....

    So thats $100 a night onto of the sticker price.
    Yeah but they have Damian Hirst sharks in the bar. Or at least they did in the one I stayed at in 2019. And the penthouse suite has a fridge literally packed with diamonds, also by Hirst

    Can't put a price on that
    Tacky as hell....sounds like Dubai is the place for you after all.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,923

    As I understand it Rachel Reeves is seeking a windfall tax on the oil industry which according to her will raise 1.2 billion

    At the same time she wants to abolish the 5% vat on energy bills at a cost of 1.5 billion

    Therefore, labour are proposing a small cut in the bills for the low paid and pensioners while handing a reduction to the wealthy and that the overall effect is at best a minor help to the cost of living crisis

    She also wants to invest tens of billions in retro fitting homes and nuclear energy, but this will have no effect on this year or next years cost of living crisis

    I think my Lib Dems should call for the windfall tax too actually Big G. In fact your Tories should steal it. My reasoning is, whilst energy prices cause consumer pain, those with it to sell are making lots of lovely dosh! So you take a bit from that windfall one end, to ease pain at other. What are you saying is wrong in that?

    I’m even hopeful Saint Bart will agree with this one.
    Absolutely not, I don't believe in general in redistribution and certainly not in examples like this.

    If you take the profits companies make from them, then who is going to invest in the UK? When we need serious investments going forwards.

    When the price of energy plunges nobody redistributes to pass more money to the companies so why do the opposite when the price surges?

    I do agree with abolishing VAT on domestic energy to relieve the pressure on consumers across the nation. The tax is seriously regressive and while it won't be a cure-all it would be a step in the right direction.
    Oh. So Pirates completely against any form of windfall distribution?

    When companies and industries in trouble though we do help out? Throw taxpayer money at steel, fertiliser plants, at rich Japanese companies so they keep factories here, so it’s a quid pro qua thing?

    With the cutting of any taxes, government also need to cut health waiting lists where people are in pain, if you were PM you would have to tax more these coming years to achieve aims like that as well, somehow, not just talk up being a tax cutting platform?
    Indeed, I'm in favour of cut throat buccaneering competition not the state redistributing and choosing winners and losers.

    I would view the waiting list caused by the pandemic (as opposed to day to day waiting lists) as part of the 'war effort' from the pandemic so would add the costs related to that to pandemic induced debt.
    Okay. And pay the war debt off how? Presumably with lighter taxes over longer period?
    Exactly.
    So you are a high debt low tax person admitting there will be massive largely untouchable public spending in the next 5 years or so? It’s currently debt about 100% GDP - where wouldn’t you take it to before introducing new national assurance bills, 130? 140?
    No I prefer low debt in normal circumstances but the pandemic has been a once in a century war like effort and that needs to be dealt with accordingly.

    Day to day spending shouldn't be borrowed. But pandemic expenditure should be. Clearing the backlog should be borrowed as related to the pandemic while ongoing expenditure shouldn't be.
    But in practice isn’t ongoing state provision, NHS £160B a year and climbing (cost of functioning care not even properly accounted for as it’s not functioning) intrinsically linked with the covid war debt? What is spending on one, borrowing for the other?

    You wouldn’t like to see debt much above 100% GDP? The reason I press that question is important is regardless what your low tax policy platform is, or your buccaneering spirit, once you set that % marker not to go above that becomes the point you, Bart PM have to start taxing. And if you want to remain in office, tax, tax cut, right times in political cycle?
    I admire you trying to talk sense with Bart Simpson.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,123
    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    Is Mister Sandpit here? Anyone else know Dubai?

    Am tempted to grab a couple of weeks in the sun, and the options worldwide are fast diminishing. Dubai is still open

    But I've only been once for a weekend so I don't know it at all. Does it have a district where you can find nice hotels in proper city streets with bars and restaurants and life? I don't want to have to walk out of my hotel and find myself in a car park by a freeway and I have to get Ubers to the nearest bar

    I don't care if it is by the sea or not...

    Go to Muscat, Oman instead.

    Dubai is in the same box as Las Vegas for me. Having said that we did have a very nice family holiday a bit away from the city, in Fujairah.
    I visited quite a few times during Iraq 2. I worked my way through the 2003 graduating class of the Moscow State University Faculty of Prostitution and got in a fight with some dyspeptic British expats that was a fucking bloodbath. Five stars from me on TripAdvisor.
    Muscat or Dubai?


    Sounds like Dubai. Not many high class hookers in Muscat
    You can fly direct, and cheap, to Cape Verde if you can bear the ignominy of flying TUI
    I've actually been looking at Cape Verde but it's not overburdened with hotels
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,923
    Eabhal said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    HYUFD said:

    Labour to recommend devomax when Gordon Brown's report for Starmer concludes, with responsibility for policy in most areas except defence and foreign policy being given to Holyrood if Labour wins the next general election. Labour could also allow its parliamentary candidates to support Scottish independence on a personal conscience basis

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-may-allow-pro-independence-candidates-to-stand-in-scotland-2hpq3djvt

    This is either just a step towards full independence or a cynical attempt to buy SNP support for a minority Starmer govt.

    I really don’t see the point of devomax. It won’t satisfy those who want Indy and it takes Scotland further from the union for those who value the union.
    It's attempt to win over pro-indy voters, in an attempt to get a Labour majority. Starmer doesn't need to a formal deal with the SNP providing Labour (or Labour + Lib Dems) have more MPs than the Conservatives.
    He might still be screwed on ruling, though, where the SNP abstain on non-Scottish matters. I personally think a minority Labour government dependent on a rainbow coalition with a large minority Tory presence is going to be hellish for Starmer. The SNP's single agenda is going to be as poisonous as possible - to get to the point where the rUK says "well just fuck off then...." and get their next referendum to deliver it. Not their problem if Westminster grinds to a halt....
    If Labour has more MPs than the Conservatives the SNP abstaining on English legislation wouldn't screw him on ruling.
    If they don't, then the SNP might be willing to support on him on getting English legislation through the Commons... but they'd want major policy concessions (i.e. scrapping Trident) which would go down like a cup of cold sick with the electorate south of the border. I honestly don't know what Labour does in that situation.
    But is Trident really that popular in England?

    Only 18% of respondents in England and Wales were strongly supportive in 2013. Probably even fewer now. It is an incredible waste of taxpayers money, leaving aside the moral horror.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/310697/britains-nuclear-weapons-attitudes-in-great-britain/
    43% of voters in England and Wales want to keep nuclear weapons on those numbers, only 36% opposed.
    Hardly overwhelming support. Most English voters will go ‘meh’ when a government abolished them. Which is inevitable.
    No English government (or UK government) would of course ever abolish them.

    They are a requirement for our permanent UN security council seat membership and as long as Putin, Xi and Kim have them so will we. Scotland of course also benefits from the protection of the UK nuclear umbrella
    That umbrella won't protect Glasgow in the event of an accident, being roughly downwind of Faslane.

    Why didn't they stick them in Cromarty, or Scapa Flow?
    Or down south even where they find the risks unacceptable.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    edited January 2022

    kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    London will be fascinating - there are one or two counter-intuitive trends which may yet ruin the planned narrative for the elections.

    I don't think the Conservatives will do that badly - the doom of the London Conservatives has been prophesied on many occasions. This time I see a mixed bag - it's quite possible Labour will regain Wandsworth and perhaps Barnet and it'll be interesting to see how Hillingdon votes but in some of the inner London Labour strongholds I think we could see some surprisingly strong Conservative performances which may not translate into many seats.

    I also think the Conservatives have some serious prospects of ending LD rule in Sutton and Kingston.

    Labour will hope to gain Wandsworth and Barnet and make progress in Hillingdon but most of their fortresses are impregnable though I think there will be odd losses to Conservatives, Greens and LDs.

    Havering is another borough where any Conservative losses might mean a change of administration.

    As said, the LDs may be in trouble in Sutton and Kingston but will hope to survive there and start re-building in the rest of the capital.

    The Greens have only 11 Councillors in the capital - they will be looking to build on that and possibly where they are challenging Labour in inner London might be their best chance of progress.

    Good post.

    I think the big success story in May’s elections will be the greens. They seem to be able to win everywhere at the moment. Is it young or new voters driving the Green election successes?

    On the other side of the argument, I think HYUFD is right and Big G wrong because there is neither a standard balanced local election battleground nor obvious conclusion from results. If HYUFD says this years battleground doesn’t suit Libdems that is good enough for me.

    It’s not actually libdems but Labour who seem to be making progress in national polls. The 35-40 lab Tory picture seems to have reversed since end October.

    As well as unbalanced battle grounds each year, how results went last time seats were up can also make for an unbalanced picture where it’s too easy to conclude the wrong take out. To be fair to Boris Johnson under Corbyn Labour seemed to have a lot of poor local elections even when the battleground should have suited them, which means Tories are in for some tough defences in this group of years? So glib conclusion is results verdict on Johnson being rubbish, which is true because he had been found out now, but any leader would have found defending the same position tough, is that fair to say?
    I’m actually convinced Johnson does not survive the next couple of weeks, let alone make it to May. It’s this wallpaper business very dangerous to him now. The Parliament standards lady says she won’t investigate. Labour squealing she should, Tories arguing it falls under Geet because it’s cabinet not MP matter.

    I reckon it can go like this. Saying she won’t investigate is good news for Boris. But if she changes her mind, and finds against him, he’s in Paterson position facing suspension which is even more than vonk it instant resignation.

    I may be the only person on PB seeing wallpaper for access bringing Boris down in next couple of weeks, but I don’t care, I think it can so easily happen like when country’s apparently sleep walk into war - the key question for those shaking your head at my post is to ask yourself, the Parliament sleaze lady who done for Paterson, not at moment investigating the Prime Minister, Why would she change her mind?
    Well, if your forecast is right, you'll earn fantastic PB bragging points.
    I’m not seeking bragging points. I’m more worried I have zero credibility for getting wrong what looks obvious. I just find it odd no one sees a PM tottering on brink after his own side put so much work in hollowing him out as I see it.

    Maybe I hsvn’t been around for many “falls” or turning points, do they tend to happen quickly and unexpectedly catching people out, or are they not all slow and painful as this ruin of Johnson?

    I am thinking on basis he will be talked up, and even make Boris great again initiative, to the point they can vote against him in secret, then he will be fortnight ago chip wrapper.

    Have I really got it wrong?
    Maybe you haven't. But talk is cheap. Money talks on here and I'll lay some down -

    £50 from me to site funds if the Muscly Magnificence is not PM on 1st Feb 2022.

    If he is, you write me a short poem with the phrase "wonder horse" in it.
    Not accepting that. It’s still going to take a bit longer than 1st Feb for Boris to be removed from No. 10 (and for someone to eye up the wallpaper and fancy a change to their style) even in my it’s very close now scenario. I did think of offering out a bet, it would be my 50 against your 50 not a poem, but I just feared there would be too many takers to be honest.

    I’m still not sure I’m right and everyone else on PB from right to left not right. But his own side have put so much effort into removing him asap, why would they want to wait till May and later now? Football club jobs come up not cause you waited for it to go well, but vacancy because their is new voice needed and work to do. Same with any business. Why would politics be different?
    Problem is, us old codgers have seen this pattern looooots of times before. The process always goes much slower than you’d imagine. Until it doesn’t. That’s the tricky bit.

    The Cons definitely want rid of Johnson, but not yet. They need him as a fall-guy.
    This is more like it. Old codger taking me aside after the failed vote. 🙂

    “But I know your mind Captain Dickson, you want him out as much as I do. Why didn’t you vote with me?”
    “Ah. Softly softly catchee monkey, young miss. You need to learn the art of politics. See them over there? They’re not quite ready to vote against him yet, and without them, we can’t win.”
    “Then let’s get them in here now and talk some sense into them!”
    “Ah. Doesn’t work like that. They have their constituency to represent. They don’t move till the constituencies ready for it.”
  • Options

    As I understand it Rachel Reeves is seeking a windfall tax on the oil industry which according to her will raise 1.2 billion

    At the same time she wants to abolish the 5% vat on energy bills at a cost of 1.5 billion

    Therefore, labour are proposing a small cut in the bills for the low paid and pensioners while handing a reduction to the wealthy and that the overall effect is at best a minor help to the cost of living crisis

    She also wants to invest tens of billions in retro fitting homes and nuclear energy, but this will have no effect on this year or next years cost of living crisis

    I think my Lib Dems should call for the windfall tax too actually Big G. In fact your Tories should steal it. My reasoning is, whilst energy prices cause consumer pain, those with it to sell are making lots of lovely dosh! So you take a bit from that windfall one end, to ease pain at other. What are you saying is wrong in that?

    I’m even hopeful Saint Bart will agree with this one.
    Absolutely not, I don't believe in general in redistribution and certainly not in examples like this.

    If you take the profits companies make from them, then who is going to invest in the UK? When we need serious investments going forwards.

    When the price of energy plunges nobody redistributes to pass more money to the companies so why do the opposite when the price surges?

    I do agree with abolishing VAT on domestic energy to relieve the pressure on consumers across the nation. The tax is seriously regressive and while it won't be a cure-all it would be a step in the right direction.
    Oh. So Pirates completely against any form of windfall distribution?

    When companies and industries in trouble though we do help out? Throw taxpayer money at steel, fertiliser plants, at rich Japanese companies so they keep factories here, so it’s a quid pro qua thing?

    With the cutting of any taxes, government also need to cut health waiting lists where people are in pain, if you were PM you would have to tax more these coming years to achieve aims like that as well, somehow, not just talk up being a tax cutting platform?
    Indeed, I'm in favour of cut throat buccaneering competition not the state redistributing and choosing winners and losers.

    I would view the waiting list caused by the pandemic (as opposed to day to day waiting lists) as part of the 'war effort' from the pandemic so would add the costs related to that to pandemic induced debt.
    Okay. And pay the war debt off how? Presumably with lighter taxes over longer period?
    Exactly.
    So you are a high debt low tax person admitting there will be massive largely untouchable public spending in the next 5 years or so? It’s currently debt about 100% GDP - where wouldn’t you take it to before introducing new national assurance bills, 130? 140?
    No I prefer low debt in normal circumstances but the pandemic has been a once in a century war like effort and that needs to be dealt with accordingly.

    Day to day spending shouldn't be borrowed. But pandemic expenditure should be. Clearing the backlog should be borrowed as related to the pandemic while ongoing expenditure shouldn't be.
    But in practice isn’t ongoing state provision, NHS £160B a year and climbing (cost of functioning care not even properly accounted for as it’s not functioning) intrinsically linked with the covid war debt? What is spending on one, borrowing for the other?

    You wouldn’t like to see debt much above 100% GDP? The reason I press that question is important is regardless what your low tax policy platform is, or your buccaneering spirit, once you set that % marker not to go above that becomes the point you, Bart PM have to start taxing. And if you want to remain in office, tax, tax cut, right times in political cycle?
    You're using bad economics. There is no percentage figure as debt itself is far less important than the deficit. Debt feeds into interest which feeds into the deficit but it's the deficit that matters most.

    Over the cycle if the deficit is less than GDP growth (real + inflation) then the debt to GDP comes down.

    In 1947 debt to GDP peaked at 249.7% but within a decade that had halved.

    In 2007 debt to GDP was just 34% but because the deficit was trashed within three years it had more than doubled and it nearly trebled before peaking pre Covid.

    So I would accrue an amount for a limited time period related to clearing off the pandemic backlogs that would be considered part of the pandemic borrowing. The deficit excluding the accrual then should meet normal budgetary guidelines going forwards.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,274
    Leon said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    Is Mister Sandpit here? Anyone else know Dubai?

    Am tempted to grab a couple of weeks in the sun, and the options worldwide are fast diminishing. Dubai is still open

    But I've only been once for a weekend so I don't know it at all. Does it have a district where you can find nice hotels in proper city streets with bars and restaurants and life? I don't want to have to walk out of my hotel and find myself in a car park by a freeway and I have to get Ubers to the nearest bar

    I don't care if it is by the sea or not...

    Go to Muscat, Oman instead.

    Dubai is in the same box as Las Vegas for me. Having said that we did have a very nice family holiday a bit away from the city, in Fujairah.
    Why anybody would choose to holiday in Las Vegas is beyond me.
    Incredibly cheap hotels, subsidised by gamblers

    Also interesting art, some good restaurants, and the spectacular lights at night. And the glorious deserts all around..

    That said I wouldn't stay more than a few days, the relentless commerciality grinds you down
    I had the chance to fly myself to Las Vegas from San Diego some ten years back, ruined when some student pilot crashed his aircraft the day before, straight into and breaching one of California’s pressurised sewage pipelines (creating a most unpleasant scenario for the emergency responders, as led the local SoCal TV news) and closing the airfield pending the FAA investigation.

    Then I remember with a smile some good friends of mine who made a trip to LV a few years back, and came back disgusted at how tacky it was. They amused us all wondering what exactly it was that they were expecting.

    Whether I will ever see Las Vegas, who knows…

  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187
    malcolmg said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Is Mister Sandpit here? Anyone else know Dubai?

    Am tempted to grab a couple of weeks in the sun, and the options worldwide are fast diminishing. Dubai is still open

    But I've only been once for a weekend so I don't know it at all. Does it have a district where you can find nice hotels in proper city streets with bars and restaurants and life? I don't want to have to walk out of my hotel and find myself in a car park by a freeway and I have to get Ubers to the nearest bar

    I don't care if it is by the sea or not...

    Watch Dubai - Playground of the Rich on BBC at 9pm tomorrow (following on from the Monaco programme in a similar vein)
    I wouldn't....its trash tv at its trashiest.
    Well Dubai does attract plenty of the trashy rich
    Mr Sandpit was very critical of that program though basically saying they have gone out and found the biggest dickheads they could find to produce a certain kind of show.
    Maybe but to be honest Dubai makes Essex look like a centre of high culture! The only books on sale seem to be autobiographies and self help manuals by the Sheikh
    I would need paying to go there and not a pittance either.
    Ditto
    I read a story recently where a Brit holidaying in Dubai was in a busy bar and his hand had just accidentally brushed the back of another guy's trousers, something I've experienced several times over the years in the hurly burly of a night out, from both sides, brusher and brushee, and he ended up arrested and charged with something and spending a few days in the slammer.

    I'd find it hard to relax in a place like that - and holidays are meant to be relaxing.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited January 2022
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    Is Mister Sandpit here? Anyone else know Dubai?

    Am tempted to grab a couple of weeks in the sun, and the options worldwide are fast diminishing. Dubai is still open

    But I've only been once for a weekend so I don't know it at all. Does it have a district where you can find nice hotels in proper city streets with bars and restaurants and life? I don't want to have to walk out of my hotel and find myself in a car park by a freeway and I have to get Ubers to the nearest bar

    I don't care if it is by the sea or not...

    Go to Muscat, Oman instead.

    Dubai is in the same box as Las Vegas for me. Having said that we did have a very nice family holiday a bit away from the city, in Fujairah.
    Why anybody would choose to holiday in Las Vegas is beyond me.
    Incredibly cheap hotels, subsidised by gamblers

    Also interesting art, some good restaurants, and the spectacular lights at night. And the glorious deserts all around..

    That said I wouldn't stay more than a few days, the relentless commerciality grinds you down
    I had the chance to fly myself to Las Vegas from San Diego some ten years back, ruined when some student pilot crashed his aircraft the day before, straight into and breaching one of California’s pressurised sewage pipelines (creating a most unpleasant scenario for the emergency responders, as led the local SoCal TV news) and closing the airfield pending the FAA investigation.

    Then I remember with a smile some good friends of mine who made a trip to LV a few years back, and came back disgusted at how tacky it was. They amused us all wondering what exactly it was that they were expecting.

    Whether I will ever see Las Vegas, who knows…

    It was best described to me as like a pile up on the motorway, its nasty, its disgusting, but your sort of have to look, then you feel dirty for doing so....

    The thing is if you are going for a "holiday", there is nothing remotely relaxing about the place in anyway. Its 24/7 assault on your senses by noise and lights. Even people who go to Ibiza for the night life normally want at least a few hours of chill out time (hence why those chill out cafes in became so popular).
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,923
    kinabalu said:

    malcolmg said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Is Mister Sandpit here? Anyone else know Dubai?

    Am tempted to grab a couple of weeks in the sun, and the options worldwide are fast diminishing. Dubai is still open

    But I've only been once for a weekend so I don't know it at all. Does it have a district where you can find nice hotels in proper city streets with bars and restaurants and life? I don't want to have to walk out of my hotel and find myself in a car park by a freeway and I have to get Ubers to the nearest bar

    I don't care if it is by the sea or not...

    Watch Dubai - Playground of the Rich on BBC at 9pm tomorrow (following on from the Monaco programme in a similar vein)
    I wouldn't....its trash tv at its trashiest.
    Well Dubai does attract plenty of the trashy rich
    Mr Sandpit was very critical of that program though basically saying they have gone out and found the biggest dickheads they could find to produce a certain kind of show.
    Maybe but to be honest Dubai makes Essex look like a centre of high culture! The only books on sale seem to be autobiographies and self help manuals by the Sheikh
    I would need paying to go there and not a pittance either.
    Ditto
    I read a story recently where a Brit holidaying in Dubai was in a busy bar and his hand had just accidentally brushed the back of another guy's trousers, something I've experienced several times over the years in the hurly burly of a night out, from both sides, brusher and brushee, and he ended up arrested and charged with something and spending a few days in the slammer.

    I'd find it hard to relax in a place like that - and holidays are meant to be relaxing.
    You could not pay me to go there
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    Leon said:

    Thank for the brilliant advice on Where to stay in Dubai, PB


    "Ugh!"

    "Watch a movie about rich people there"

    "You'd have to pay me to go there"

    "People from Ibiza go there"

    "Try Muscat instead"


    Brilliant. Really useful. You should all be travel journalists

    I'd suggest stay in Jumeirah Beach Residences area unless someone else is paying with an unlimited budget in which case you may as well go full bling at the Burj Al Arab.

    Your timing is good as last week relaxed laws on sex outside marriage, alcohol and even minor drug possession.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,123
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    Is Mister Sandpit here? Anyone else know Dubai?

    Am tempted to grab a couple of weeks in the sun, and the options worldwide are fast diminishing. Dubai is still open

    But I've only been once for a weekend so I don't know it at all. Does it have a district where you can find nice hotels in proper city streets with bars and restaurants and life? I don't want to have to walk out of my hotel and find myself in a car park by a freeway and I have to get Ubers to the nearest bar

    I don't care if it is by the sea or not...

    Go to Muscat, Oman instead.

    Dubai is in the same box as Las Vegas for me. Having said that we did have a very nice family holiday a bit away from the city, in Fujairah.
    Why anybody would choose to holiday in Las Vegas is beyond me.
    Incredibly cheap hotels, subsidised by gamblers

    Also interesting art, some good restaurants, and the spectacular lights at night. And the glorious deserts all around..

    That said I wouldn't stay more than a few days, the relentless commerciality grinds you down
    I had the chance to fly myself to Las Vegas from San Diego some ten years back, ruined when some student pilot crashed his aircraft the day before, straight into and breaching one of California’s pressurised sewage pipelines (creating a most unpleasant scenario for the emergency responders, as led the local SoCal TV news) and closing the airfield pending the FAA investigation.

    Then I remember with a smile some good friends of mine who made a trip to LV a few years back, and came back disgusted at how tacky it was. They amused us all wondering what exactly it was that they were expecting.

    Whether I will ever see Las Vegas, who knows…

    You should. Everybody should experience it once. It is unique, and it is by no means all ugly. You see things in Vegas you will never see anywhere else, for good or bad

    And the view of it from the desert hills outside, at night, as the sun goes down and the lights go on is genuinely magical. Like an enormous spotlit jewelbox suddenly materialising in a cave

    You can also eat well if you're clever and careful (a lot of the food is awful) and the downtown area of old Vegas is intriguing and characterful

    It is also dangerous in places, and full of fucked up weirdos. So, yes, definitely see it, but don't stay too long
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    LeonLeon Posts: 47,123
    kinabalu said:

    malcolmg said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Is Mister Sandpit here? Anyone else know Dubai?

    Am tempted to grab a couple of weeks in the sun, and the options worldwide are fast diminishing. Dubai is still open

    But I've only been once for a weekend so I don't know it at all. Does it have a district where you can find nice hotels in proper city streets with bars and restaurants and life? I don't want to have to walk out of my hotel and find myself in a car park by a freeway and I have to get Ubers to the nearest bar

    I don't care if it is by the sea or not...

    Watch Dubai - Playground of the Rich on BBC at 9pm tomorrow (following on from the Monaco programme in a similar vein)
    I wouldn't....its trash tv at its trashiest.
    Well Dubai does attract plenty of the trashy rich
    Mr Sandpit was very critical of that program though basically saying they have gone out and found the biggest dickheads they could find to produce a certain kind of show.
    Maybe but to be honest Dubai makes Essex look like a centre of high culture! The only books on sale seem to be autobiographies and self help manuals by the Sheikh
    I would need paying to go there and not a pittance either.
    Ditto
    I read a story recently where a Brit holidaying in Dubai was in a busy bar and his hand had just accidentally brushed the back of another guy's trousers, something I've experienced several times over the years in the hurly burly of a night out, from both sides, brusher and brushee, and he ended up arrested and charged with something and spending a few days in the slammer.

    I'd find it hard to relax in a place like that - and holidays are meant to be relaxing.
    This seems to happen to you quite a lot, as you admit. Accidentally brushing men's bottoms

    Quite an odd repeating pattern
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    kinabalu said:

    malcolmg said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Is Mister Sandpit here? Anyone else know Dubai?

    Am tempted to grab a couple of weeks in the sun, and the options worldwide are fast diminishing. Dubai is still open

    But I've only been once for a weekend so I don't know it at all. Does it have a district where you can find nice hotels in proper city streets with bars and restaurants and life? I don't want to have to walk out of my hotel and find myself in a car park by a freeway and I have to get Ubers to the nearest bar

    I don't care if it is by the sea or not...

    Watch Dubai - Playground of the Rich on BBC at 9pm tomorrow (following on from the Monaco programme in a similar vein)
    I wouldn't....its trash tv at its trashiest.
    Well Dubai does attract plenty of the trashy rich
    Mr Sandpit was very critical of that program though basically saying they have gone out and found the biggest dickheads they could find to produce a certain kind of show.
    Maybe but to be honest Dubai makes Essex look like a centre of high culture! The only books on sale seem to be autobiographies and self help manuals by the Sheikh
    I would need paying to go there and not a pittance either.
    Ditto
    I read a story recently where a Brit holidaying in Dubai was in a busy bar and his hand had just accidentally brushed the back of another guy's trousers, something I've experienced several times over the years in the hurly burly of a night out, from both sides, brusher and brushee, and he ended up arrested and charged with something and spending a few days in the slammer.

    I'd find it hard to relax in a place like that - and holidays are meant to be relaxing.
    Yes that kind of thing is a risk of going there. But go to Cape Town or even Miami and you might get shot. Overall Dubai is safer than a lot of places UK tourists visit, just the risks are different.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 47,123

    Leon said:

    Thank for the brilliant advice on Where to stay in Dubai, PB


    "Ugh!"

    "Watch a movie about rich people there"

    "You'd have to pay me to go there"

    "People from Ibiza go there"

    "Try Muscat instead"


    Brilliant. Really useful. You should all be travel journalists

    I'd suggest stay in Jumeirah Beach Residences area unless someone else is paying with an unlimited budget in which case you may as well go full bling at the Burj Al Arab.

    Your timing is good as last week relaxed laws on sex outside marriage, alcohol and even minor drug possession.
    Funnily enough, a friend who is out there at the moment has just literally said the same thing - the JBResidences


    That's where I am looking....
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    boulayboulay Posts: 3,918
    kinabalu said:

    malcolmg said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Is Mister Sandpit here? Anyone else know Dubai?

    Am tempted to grab a couple of weeks in the sun, and the options worldwide are fast diminishing. Dubai is still open

    But I've only been once for a weekend so I don't know it at all. Does it have a district where you can find nice hotels in proper city streets with bars and restaurants and life? I don't want to have to walk out of my hotel and find myself in a car park by a freeway and I have to get Ubers to the nearest bar

    I don't care if it is by the sea or not...

    Watch Dubai - Playground of the Rich on BBC at 9pm tomorrow (following on from the Monaco programme in a similar vein)
    I wouldn't....its trash tv at its trashiest.
    Well Dubai does attract plenty of the trashy rich
    Mr Sandpit was very critical of that program though basically saying they have gone out and found the biggest dickheads they could find to produce a certain kind of show.
    Maybe but to be honest Dubai makes Essex look like a centre of high culture! The only books on sale seem to be autobiographies and self help manuals by the Sheikh
    I would need paying to go there and not a pittance either.
    Ditto
    I read a story recently where a Brit holidaying in Dubai was in a busy bar and his hand had just accidentally brushed the back of another guy's trousers, something I've experienced several times over the years in the hurly burly of a night out, from both sides, brusher and brushee, and he ended up arrested and charged with something and spending a few days in the slammer.

    I'd find it hard to relax in a place like that - and holidays are meant to be relaxing.
    It’s a weird old place - went there with a girlfriend and on one side you are aware that walking along holding hands in a mall will be frowned upon whilst knowing the hotels are full of hookers and yachters.

    Wouldn’t go back as I don’t want to be somewhere where you can behave like a normal Brit (drinking, partying etc) and you just have to piss off the wrong local doing something pretty innocuous and next thing you could be locked up and a story in the Daily Mail…..

    Glad I’ve been but no desire to go back - just so many other warm places with great hotels if you want that without the threat of being locked up for annoying someone.
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    edited January 2022
    malcolmg said:

    As I understand it Rachel Reeves is seeking a windfall tax on the oil industry which according to her will raise 1.2 billion

    At the same time she wants to abolish the 5% vat on energy bills at a cost of 1.5 billion

    Therefore, labour are proposing a small cut in the bills for the low paid and pensioners while handing a reduction to the wealthy and that the overall effect is at best a minor help to the cost of living crisis

    She also wants to invest tens of billions in retro fitting homes and nuclear energy, but this will have no effect on this year or next years cost of living crisis

    I think my Lib Dems should call for the windfall tax too actually Big G. In fact your Tories should steal it. My reasoning is, whilst energy prices cause consumer pain, those with it to sell are making lots of lovely dosh! So you take a bit from that windfall one end, to ease pain at other. What are you saying is wrong in that?

    I’m even hopeful Saint Bart will agree with this one.
    Absolutely not, I don't believe in general in redistribution and certainly not in examples like this.

    If you take the profits companies make from them, then who is going to invest in the UK? When we need serious investments going forwards.

    When the price of energy plunges nobody redistributes to pass more money to the companies so why do the opposite when the price surges?

    I do agree with abolishing VAT on domestic energy to relieve the pressure on consumers across the nation. The tax is seriously regressive and while it won't be a cure-all it would be a step in the right direction.
    Oh. So Pirates completely against any form of windfall distribution?

    When companies and industries in trouble though we do help out? Throw taxpayer money at steel, fertiliser plants, at rich Japanese companies so they keep factories here, so it’s a quid pro qua thing?

    With the cutting of any taxes, government also need to cut health waiting lists where people are in pain, if you were PM you would have to tax more these coming years to achieve aims like that as well, somehow, not just talk up being a tax cutting platform?
    Indeed, I'm in favour of cut throat buccaneering competition not the state redistributing and choosing winners and losers.

    I would view the waiting list caused by the pandemic (as opposed to day to day waiting lists) as part of the 'war effort' from the pandemic so would add the costs related to that to pandemic induced debt.
    Okay. And pay the war debt off how? Presumably with lighter taxes over longer period?
    Exactly.
    So you are a high debt low tax person admitting there will be massive largely untouchable public spending in the next 5 years or so? It’s currently debt about 100% GDP - where wouldn’t you take it to before introducing new national assurance bills, 130? 140?
    No I prefer low debt in normal circumstances but the pandemic has been a once in a century war like effort and that needs to be dealt with accordingly.

    Day to day spending shouldn't be borrowed. But pandemic expenditure should be. Clearing the backlog should be borrowed as related to the pandemic while ongoing expenditure shouldn't be.
    But in practice isn’t ongoing state provision, NHS £160B a year and climbing (cost of functioning care not even properly accounted for as it’s not functioning) intrinsically linked with the covid war debt? What is spending on one, borrowing for the other?

    You wouldn’t like to see debt much above 100% GDP? The reason I press that question is important is regardless what your low tax policy platform is, or your buccaneering spirit, once you set that % marker not to go above that becomes the point you, Bart PM have to start taxing. And if you want to remain in office, tax, tax cut, right times in political cycle?
    I admire you trying to talk sense with Bart Simpson.
    I’ll have a go with you now Malky 🙂

    The point of supporting Scottish Nationalism in political elections is to end up in a better place? To be very honest, Even as an English I am right behind any push for a better place for Scottish common origin, ethnicity, and cultural identity in this world and all that. Like anywhere. And as an English person would like fairness in this world for Scotland politically and economically.

    But say you are rich because you are free, actually having financial clout in this world would be a bonus - I’m not sure I would define as a strong place for Independent Scotland. So We can agree Scotland got to come out from divorce in a economic and political strong place in the world?

    So what’s driving Scottish Nationalism right now, particularly now? If it’s turning to localism to fight globalisation I’m not convinced to be honest. In an independent Scotland, who owns Scotland? Who owns the land? Who owns the properties? Who owns the factories and all the other industries people work in?

    This isn’t questions or debate I think for me and you, but amongst you Scots I think, so you nail down where you are going.

    To fight back against the horrors of global capital of the last 40 years needs friends, bridges bustling with commerce. Whatever the divorce settlement, that’s where you need to be. Do you see my point?
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    StockyStocky Posts: 9,718
    edited January 2022
    @TSE

    If Shrewbury win - especially (for me) if 0-1 - a rather nice punt will be landed. Great tip TSE whatever happens now.
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    StockyStocky Posts: 9,718
    edited January 2022
    Leon said:

    Thank for the brilliant advice on Where to stay in Dubai, PB


    "Ugh!"

    "Watch a movie about rich people there"

    "You'd have to pay me to go there"

    "People from Ibiza go there"

    "Try Muscat instead"


    Brilliant. Really useful. You should all be travel journalists


    I'm surprised you didn't like Muscat. Oman has a great, long coast - much of it unspoilt. Snorkelling very good - and whale-watching. Plus trips into desert very feasible. Can really get away from it all. Lovely people.

    Dubai - ugh. Very different. Man-made and ghastly as far as I'm concerned. I've never been to Las Vegas - and never will - but I imagine there are similarities.

    A matter of taste I guess.
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    StockyStocky Posts: 9,718
    Bugger. Liverpool equalise. My 0-1 is sunk. Still nice pick-up if Shrews win though.
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,121

    Tw@tter seems to be having a meltdown about any suggestion of removing free LFT and learning to live with covid.....its all back to Boris killing everybody off stuck.

    Your equation between "removing free LFT tests" and "learning to live with covid" is interesting.

    Almost as though they were synonymous. Almost as though everyone had subscribed to the creed that's holding Boris Johnson a political prisoner at the moment - the creed of "let's just abandon any attempt to control the pandemic and let it rip".

    Who knows? Maybe Johnson will get lucky yet again. We can only hope so, but people here above all should realise that just because a reckless gambler gets lucky, that doesn't mean recklessness is a wise strategy to adopt.
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    StockyStocky Posts: 9,718
    @Anabobazina

    Hints that France may soon relax ban on UK tourism. You should be OK I think.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,415
    edited January 2022
    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    HYUFD said:

    Labour to recommend devomax when Gordon Brown's report for Starmer concludes, with responsibility for policy in most areas except defence and foreign policy being given to Holyrood if Labour wins the next general election. Labour could also allow its parliamentary candidates to support Scottish independence on a personal conscience basis

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-may-allow-pro-independence-candidates-to-stand-in-scotland-2hpq3djvt

    This is either just a step towards full independence or a cynical attempt to buy SNP support for a minority Starmer govt.

    I really don’t see the point of devomax. It won’t satisfy those who want Indy and it takes Scotland further from the union for those who value the union.
    It's attempt to win over pro-indy voters, in an attempt to get a Labour majority. Starmer doesn't need to a formal deal with the SNP providing Labour (or Labour + Lib Dems) have more MPs than the Conservatives.
    He might still be screwed on ruling, though, where the SNP abstain on non-Scottish matters. I personally think a minority Labour government dependent on a rainbow coalition with a large minority Tory presence is going to be hellish for Starmer. The SNP's single agenda is going to be as poisonous as possible - to get to the point where the rUK says "well just fuck off then...." and get their next referendum to deliver it. Not their problem if Westminster grinds to a halt....
    If Labour has more MPs than the Conservatives the SNP abstaining on English legislation wouldn't screw him on ruling.
    If they don't, then the SNP might be willing to support on him on getting English legislation through the Commons... but they'd want major policy concessions (i.e. scrapping Trident) which would go down like a cup of cold sick with the electorate south of the border. I honestly don't know what Labour does in that situation.
    But is Trident really that popular in England?

    Only 18% of respondents in England and Wales were strongly supportive in 2013. Probably even fewer now. It is an incredible waste of taxpayers money, leaving aside the moral horror.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/310697/britains-nuclear-weapons-attitudes-in-great-britain/
    43% of voters in England and Wales want to keep nuclear weapons on those numbers, only 36% opposed.
    Nuclear weapons are not the same as Trident.
This discussion has been closed.