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Why Burnham shouldn’t be the favourite to succeed Starmer – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited January 7 in General
imageWhy Burnham shouldn’t be the favourite to succeed Starmer – politicalbetting.com

Last year I opined on Twitter that there were several markets at once with odds which I’d usually call ‘Bet of the Year’. I’ve previously written about all but one of these: Andy Burnham to be next Labour Leader. He’s currently 7/2 or so at the bookies and a tad longer at exchanges, but he should be far far longer.

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Comments

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,136
    edited January 7
    Politics move so fast...it wasn't long ago the King of the North was everywhere.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,443

    Politics move so fast...it wasn't long ago the King of the North was everywhere.

    Not to mention Pirate Roberts on the last thread, absolutely lauding him.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 1,251
    FPT

    alex_ said:

    .

    May I say a word about Drakeford, who gets an awful lot of flak on here, which may or may not be justified?

    What's struck me is that throughout the pandemic Drakeford has been as steady as a rock, utterly boring, and utterly consistent in his messaging. You may not agree with it, but his mantra has always been 'public health first'. He may have got it wrong recently, but he hasn't deviated from his message, and that may be appreciated by more people (in Wales) than we think.

    It's quite a contrast with the 'shopping trolley' in England; we're never quite sure which side of the aisle he's going to be on from one day to the next.

    Its easy to be 'public health first' when you expect someone else to provide the money and raise the taxes.
    Are we not taxed in Wales?
    I seem to remember Sunak announcing an increase in national insurance not Drakeford.
    A rise that I will also be paying.
    Missing the point. The issue in this case is not whether English taxpayers are paying for Welsh policy. It is that UK (and that includes Welsh) taxpayers are (potentially) paying for Welsh policy. And when UK taxes rise, it is the UK Govt that will be held responsible for it. By English and Welsh voters alike. So the potential political cost for Drakeford of implementing restrictions is lower than it might be for Johnson. Not non-existent, but slightly lower. Which could tip the balance when restrictions to "protect public health" are apparently popular. Which politician wouldn't pursue short term popularity if they don't bear the political price of the longer term consequences (higher taxation)?
    But that's missing my original point, isn't it? Restrictions aren't popular, so Drakeford isn't pursuing short-term popularity - if he was, he'd lift all the restrictions, wouldn't he? You may not agree with him, and nor may I, but he's been consistent.

    Could it be possible that Drakeford is doing what he thinks is right, regardless of popularity? It seems to me that it's the English PM who is more obsessed with popularity. I think the tax issue is a bit of a red herring.
    If voters are generally in favour of restrictions, maybe he is pursuing popularity.
    One political lesson of the pandemic is that voters will happily trade freedom for safety. It is part of a trajectory set by the rise of surveillance technology over the past two decades, which people have allowed to encroach significantly in to their personal freedoms. Opposition to this is ultimately just an elite hobby horse.

    Drakeford and Sturgeon are politicians exploiting this sad human tendency to shore up their own popularity.
    It has very little to do with public health and everything to do with politics.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 46,148
    Excellent piece. I am just, barely, green on the King of the North.

    I think there are now too many steps in the way for him. Not least is that should Starmer go down in 2023 to a decent but clear loss the clamour for this time it to be a woman will be deafening. Especially as there are clearly now at least three or four strong woman challengers.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,735
    It must surely be a woman, this time

    I'd make Rayner favourite right now (but not a huge fave). She is there, she shows talent, she has confidence, she is different
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,136
    Ollie Pope will be keeping wicket in Australia's second innings, with Buttler and Bairstow both taking nasty knocks to the hand.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,076
    Leon said:

    It must surely be a woman, this time

    I'd make Rayner favourite right now (but not a huge fave). She is there, she shows talent, she has confidence, she is different

    Are you advocating a selection policy based solely on identity?
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 47
    Wouldn't he have to become an MP first?
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 47
    Leon said:

    It must surely be a woman, this time

    I'd make Rayner favourite right now (but not a huge fave). She is there, she shows talent, she has confidence, she is different

    I suppose eventually a woman will finish above a man in a Labour leadership election. Eventually?
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 1,251
    Leon said:

    It must surely be a woman, this time

    I'd make Rayner favourite right now (but not a huge fave). She is there, she shows talent, she has confidence, she is different

    My thoughts as well, wouldn't be suprised if they go for some kind of all women shortlist (or woke-acceptable variation thereof)

    But I think that Starmer will be around for a while yet. He hasn't got this far to just flake out.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,830
    Leon said:

    It must surely be a woman, this time

    I'd make Rayner favourite right now (but not a huge fave). She is there, she shows talent, she has confidence, she is different

    Yeah this too. The biggest thing I cut from the article for space but entirely agree. I'm not making a judgement on what Labour should do, but there is a very decent chance the selectorate insists on it.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,076
    So then.
    Who was this towering female figure in the Labour Party so cruelly denied the leadership, despite her obvious suitability and superiority?
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 1,251
    Andy Burnham has about as much chance as David Milliband of being the next labour leader.
  • Funny coincidence but I just wrote FPT that Burnham is the only devolved leader that has shown genuine leadership through this entire pandemic. I think he's boosted his chances of getting the job.

    I don't get Quincel's logic here. Labour doing better has surely receded the chance that Starmer will be replaced before the general election and to be leader Burnham needs the next leadership election to be after the next general election. That looks more likely today than it did a few months ago when people were speculating that Starmer might need to be replaced.

    Starmer being safer in his job is good news for Burnham backers, just as Boris being safer in his job is good news for Starmer as next PM backers (since if Boris loses his job first then Starmer can't be next PM).
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,735
    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    It must surely be a woman, this time

    I'd make Rayner favourite right now (but not a huge fave). She is there, she shows talent, she has confidence, she is different

    Are you advocating a selection policy based solely on identity?
    lol, Yeah

    After this succession of inept posh or posh-ish Tories, Cameron, May, Boris, absolutely why not a working class girl from Brum? She's got a sense of humour, she has a bit of sass. She needs to learn some debating skills, judging by PMQs; she is too genial, she needs to employ ruthlessness, but in desperation I might vote for her, if it came to it
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,638
    O/T

    This doesn't surprise me.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10380385/Dont-cry-Women-no-emotional-men.html

    "Women are found to be no more emotional than men as a study claims both genders' emotions vary just as much - and men's positive feelings may even yo-yo more

    Study shows that women have no more emotional ups and downs than men
    Researchers followed 142 people over two months and had them do daily survey
    Across the 75 days they found men’s emotions varied just as much as women’s"
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 46,148
    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    It must surely be a woman, this time

    I'd make Rayner favourite right now (but not a huge fave). She is there, she shows talent, she has confidence, she is different

    My thoughts as well, wouldn't be suprised if they go for some kind of all women shortlist (or woke-acceptable variation thereof)

    But I think that Starmer will be around for a while yet. He hasn't got this far to just flake out.
    Hard to see him not being given the chance now to fight one GE.

    Although the chances of it being in 2023 rather than later are now slipping massively imho as the Tories will try and cling on until the cost of living crisis passes.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 1,562
    Applicant said:

    Leon said:

    It must surely be a woman, this time

    I'd make Rayner favourite right now (but not a huge fave). She is there, she shows talent, she has confidence, she is different

    I suppose eventually a woman will finish above a man in a Labour leadership election. Eventually?
    Possibly.

    OTOH, given past form, if you were playing guess the winner it might be a good idea to begin by working out the most likely white male candidate to amass the necessary signatures? After Burnham, Wes Streeting is the current betting favourite from that cohort by some margin, AFAIK he's completely untainted by association with the Corbyn regime, and his seat is located in North London which is Labour's special safe space. Apparently available at 16/1, if you're a gambler, which I rarely am.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,410
    dixiedean said:

    So then.
    Who was this towering female figure in the Labour Party so cruelly denied the leadership, despite her obvious suitability and superiority?

    Barbara Castle? Shirley Williams?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,638

    Ollie Pope will be keeping wicket in Australia's second innings, with Buttler and Bairstow both taking nasty knocks to the hand.

    Will they be fielding?
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 3,422
    Quincel said:

    Leon said:

    It must surely be a woman, this time

    I'd make Rayner favourite right now (but not a huge fave). She is there, she shows talent, she has confidence, she is different

    Yeah this too. The biggest thing I cut from the article for space but entirely agree. I'm not making a judgement on what Labour should do, but there is a very decent chance the selectorate insists on it.
    An excellent header, thanks - there are lots of barriers in Burnham's way. And yes, I think the only thing missing from your header is the burning desire among many Labour members (including me) to have a female leader next. Even Leon thinks this, FFS!

    I know it's some time ago, but the last time Burnham stood for Labour leader his campaign was woefully lacking. He has improved a lot, but maybe not enough? Nandy is a better bet, I think - the UK's Jacinda Ardern.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,076

    Funny coincidence but I just wrote FPT that Burnham is the only devolved leader that has shown genuine leadership through this entire pandemic. I think he's boosted his chances of getting the job.

    I don't get Quincel's logic here. Labour doing better has surely receded the chance that Starmer will be replaced before the general election and to be leader Burnham needs the next leadership election to be after the next general election. That looks more likely today than it did a few months ago when people were speculating that Starmer might need to be replaced.

    Starmer being safer in his job is good news for Burnham backers, just as Boris being safer in his job is good news for Starmer as next PM backers (since if Boris loses his job first then Starmer can't be next PM).

    To back up this point. Haven't the travails of the Conservative Party made this Parliament more likely to run longer? We don't hear talk of a snap election any more.
    The longer it runs, the more chance of Burnham being a candidate in it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 46,148
    Christopher Snowdon
    @cjsnowdon
    ·
    1h
    ‘Adam Finn, professor of paediatrics at the University of Bristol and a member of the JCVI, told The Telegraph that from this data "you might be able to cautiously conclude that restrictions are not the complete answer to this particular wave".’ 😆
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 92,646
    Burnham's best chance depends on a Labour defeat at the next general election. As he will not stand for parliament again until the next general election.

    That now looks less likely than before. So if Labour does win and Starmer becomes PM the Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves or Shadow Home Secretary may be more likely to succeed him. If Labour dips in the polls again and Starmer is replaced before the next general election as they are already in parliament and the Shadow Cabinet they would also be better placed to replace him.

    Having said that Burnham probably has a more natural connection to the redwall than Starmer or any other top tier Labour figure. So if Starmer Labour loses popularity in that crucial area again (it seems to have made big advances back in the redwall in recent months) then he is the man who could reconnect with it. In the meantime he can focus on being Mayor of Greater Manchester, a role that gives him more real power now than Starmer or any of the Labour frontbench have while they remain in opposition
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 92,646
    edited January 7
    Leon said:

    It must surely be a woman, this time

    I'd make Rayner favourite right now (but not a huge fave). She is there, she shows talent, she has confidence, she is different

    No, she is too leftwing for the average voter.

    RedfieldWilton has Boris leading Rayner by 16% on a hypothetical best PM poll, Burnham trails Boris by 5% and Starmer leads Boris by 1%

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1473007807989526528?s=20
    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1473002773453185034?s=20
    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1472992707501080581?s=20
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,659
    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    It must surely be a woman, this time

    I'd make Rayner favourite right now (but not a huge fave). She is there, she shows talent, she has confidence, she is different

    My thoughts as well, wouldn't be suprised if they go for some kind of all women shortlist (or woke-acceptable variation thereof)
    Be so of our times for Labour to choose a self-identifying she who still has "his" meat and two veg.....
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,735
    edited January 7
    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    It must surely be a woman, this time

    I'd make Rayner favourite right now (but not a huge fave). She is there, she shows talent, she has confidence, she is different

    My thoughts as well, wouldn't be suprised if they go for some kind of all women shortlist (or woke-acceptable variation thereof)

    But I think that Starmer will be around for a while yet. He hasn't got this far to just flake out.
    If I was forced to make a bet now, with real money, I would wager that Boris scrapes home to a tiny majority, as Starmer loses with dignity, having restored Labour to proper Opposition - then Rayner takes over, and wins easily in 2028 or whenever

    I just don't see how Labour can hope to get away with yet another white male leader, the 827th in a row. At some point it becomes untenable, and we are at that point, the Tories have had two women and the likely Tory successor to Boris, as of now, is a teetotal Borrower of Indian origin, and two foot high, and the alternative is a weirdly hot MILF

  • CookieCookie Posts: 5,036
    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    It must surely be a woman, this time

    I'd make Rayner favourite right now (but not a huge fave). She is there, she shows talent, she has confidence, she is different

    Are you advocating a selection policy based solely on identity?
    lol, Yeah

    After this succession of inept posh or posh-ish Tories, Cameron, May, Boris, absolutely why not a working class girl from Brum? She's got a sense of humour, she has a bit of sass. She needs to learn some debating skills, judging by PMQs; she is too genial, she needs to employ ruthlessness, but in desperation I might vote for her, if it came to it
    Rayner's not from Brum though. Your confusing he with Jess Philips. Rayner's from Stockport.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,076
    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    This doesn't surprise me.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10380385/Dont-cry-Women-no-emotional-men.html

    "Women are found to be no more emotional than men as a study claims both genders' emotions vary just as much - and men's positive feelings may even yo-yo more

    Study shows that women have no more emotional ups and downs than men
    Researchers followed 142 people over two months and had them do daily survey
    Across the 75 days they found men’s emotions varied just as much as women’s"

    Yeah me too. Men (or rather boys) are socialised into not showing them. Girls possibly the opposite.
    Btw. Keep sharing the articles. Yours are usually thought provoking. More often provoking.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,735
    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    It must surely be a woman, this time

    I'd make Rayner favourite right now (but not a huge fave). She is there, she shows talent, she has confidence, she is different

    Are you advocating a selection policy based solely on identity?
    lol, Yeah

    After this succession of inept posh or posh-ish Tories, Cameron, May, Boris, absolutely why not a working class girl from Brum? She's got a sense of humour, she has a bit of sass. She needs to learn some debating skills, judging by PMQs; she is too genial, she needs to employ ruthlessness, but in desperation I might vote for her, if it came to it
    Rayner's not from Brum though. Your confusing he with Jess Philips. Rayner's from Stockport.
    Apols, my bad, yes I am. Philips is the fake WWC girl, Rayner is the real deal. A single mum at 16

    Rayner has a really impressive backstory, having fought through all that to be where she is
  • CookieCookie Posts: 5,036
    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    It must surely be a woman, this time

    I'd make Rayner favourite right now (but not a huge fave). She is there, she shows talent, she has confidence, she is different

    Are you advocating a selection policy based solely on identity?
    lol, Yeah

    After this succession of inept posh or posh-ish Tories, Cameron, May, Boris, absolutely why not a working class girl from Brum? She's got a sense of humour, she has a bit of sass. She needs to learn some debating skills, judging by PMQs; she is too genial, she needs to employ ruthlessness, but in desperation I might vote for her, if it came to it
    Rayner's not from Brum though. Your confusing he with Jess Philips. Rayner's from Stockport.
    Apols, my bad, yes I am. Philips is the fake WWC girl, Rayner is the real deal. A single mum at 16

    Rayner has a really impressive backstory, having fought through all that to be where she is
    She's also - and this shouldn't matter, but it does - easy on the eye.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 92,646

    Quincel said:

    Leon said:

    It must surely be a woman, this time

    I'd make Rayner favourite right now (but not a huge fave). She is there, she shows talent, she has confidence, she is different

    Yeah this too. The biggest thing I cut from the article for space but entirely agree. I'm not making a judgement on what Labour should do, but there is a very decent chance the selectorate insists on it.
    An excellent header, thanks - there are lots of barriers in Burnham's way. And yes, I think the only thing missing from your header is the burning desire among many Labour members (including me) to have a female leader next. Even Leon thinks this, FFS!

    I know it's some time ago, but the last time Burnham stood for Labour leader his campaign was woefully lacking. He has improved a lot, but maybe not enough? Nandy is a better bet, I think - the UK's Jacinda Ardern.
    Nandy is a complete lightweight and Starmer has now demoted her from Labour's Shadow Cabinet top tier and replaced her as Shadow Foreign Secretary with David Lammy
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,735
    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    It must surely be a woman, this time

    I'd make Rayner favourite right now (but not a huge fave). She is there, she shows talent, she has confidence, she is different

    Are you advocating a selection policy based solely on identity?
    lol, Yeah

    After this succession of inept posh or posh-ish Tories, Cameron, May, Boris, absolutely why not a working class girl from Brum? She's got a sense of humour, she has a bit of sass. She needs to learn some debating skills, judging by PMQs; she is too genial, she needs to employ ruthlessness, but in desperation I might vote for her, if it came to it
    Rayner's not from Brum though. Your confusing he with Jess Philips. Rayner's from Stockport.
    Apols, my bad, yes I am. Philips is the fake WWC girl, Rayner is the real deal. A single mum at 16

    Rayner has a really impressive backstory, having fought through all that to be where she is
    She's also - and this shouldn't matter, but it does - easy on the eye.
    And she knows it, and uses it

    A hint of Thatcher, perhaps
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,076
    philiph said:

    dixiedean said:

    So then.
    Who was this towering female figure in the Labour Party so cruelly denied the leadership, despite her obvious suitability and superiority?

    Barbara Castle? Shirley Williams?
    The first perhaps. Though it is hard to argue that either were better than the 4 time election winner in place.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,661
    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    It must surely be a woman, this time

    I'd make Rayner favourite right now (but not a huge fave). She is there, she shows talent, she has confidence, she is different

    Are you advocating a selection policy based solely on identity?
    lol, Yeah

    After this succession of inept posh or posh-ish Tories, Cameron, May, Boris, absolutely why not a working class girl from Brum? She's got a sense of humour, she has a bit of sass. She needs to learn some debating skills, judging by PMQs; she is too genial, she needs to employ ruthlessness, but in desperation I might vote for her, if it came to it
    Rayner's not from Brum though. Your confusing he with Jess Philips. Rayner's from Stockport.
    North of Watford, it's all the same.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 92,646
    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    It must surely be a woman, this time

    I'd make Rayner favourite right now (but not a huge fave). She is there, she shows talent, she has confidence, she is different

    My thoughts as well, wouldn't be suprised if they go for some kind of all women shortlist (or woke-acceptable variation thereof)

    But I think that Starmer will be around for a while yet. He hasn't got this far to just flake out.
    If I was forced to make a bet now, with real money, I would wager that Boris scrapes home to a tiny majority, as Starmer loses with dignity, having restored Labour to proper Opposition - then Rayner takes over, and wins easily in 2028 or whenever

    I just don't see how Labour can hope to get away with yet another white male leader, the 827th in a row. At some point it becomes untenable, and we are at that point, the Tories have had two women and the likely Tory successor to Boris, as of now, is a teetotal Borrower of Indian origin, and two foot high, and the alternative is a weirdly hot MILF

    On current polls Starmer would be PM in a hung parliament if he gets SNP support
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 6,474
    Now there’s a surprise. Contrary to screeds of guff gleefully posted on PB:

    ‘Scots did not 'flock' to England for Hogmanay amid coronavirus restrictions, data shows’

    https://www.scotsman.com/health/coronavirus/covid-scotland-scots-did-not-flock-to-england-for-hogmanay-amid-coronavirus-restrictions-data-shows-3519013
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,830

    Funny coincidence but I just wrote FPT that Burnham is the only devolved leader that has shown genuine leadership through this entire pandemic. I think he's boosted his chances of getting the job.

    I don't get Quincel's logic here. Labour doing better has surely receded the chance that Starmer will be replaced before the general election and to be leader Burnham needs the next leadership election to be after the next general election. That looks more likely today than it did a few months ago when people were speculating that Starmer might need to be replaced.

    Starmer being safer in his job is good news for Burnham backers, just as Boris being safer in his job is good news for Starmer as next PM backers (since if Boris loses his job first then Starmer can't be next PM).

    So in my mind a pre-election challenge to Starmer has always been extremely unlikely. My point is that the better Starmer does now and the later the Tories therefore call an election the less likely Burnham is to become leader because:

    1. There is more time for his star to fade, and someone else to overtake him as the heir apparent; and
    2. The more likely it is for Starmer to win the election (since the Tories delaying it is presumably a sign they aren't in as strong a position as if they went for a snap election), and in such a scenario Burnham is much less likely to replace him as leader since so much more time would pass when Burnham could become one of an old generation and new figures could gain prominence.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,735
    Foxy said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    It must surely be a woman, this time

    I'd make Rayner favourite right now (but not a huge fave). She is there, she shows talent, she has confidence, she is different

    Are you advocating a selection policy based solely on identity?
    lol, Yeah

    After this succession of inept posh or posh-ish Tories, Cameron, May, Boris, absolutely why not a working class girl from Brum? She's got a sense of humour, she has a bit of sass. She needs to learn some debating skills, judging by PMQs; she is too genial, she needs to employ ruthlessness, but in desperation I might vote for her, if it came to it
    Rayner's not from Brum though. Your confusing he with Jess Philips. Rayner's from Stockport.
    North of Watford, it's all the same.
    Watford? What nonsense.

    Hendon

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,661
    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    It must surely be a woman, this time

    I'd make Rayner favourite right now (but not a huge fave). She is there, she shows talent, she has confidence, she is different

    Are you advocating a selection policy based solely on identity?
    lol, Yeah

    After this succession of inept posh or posh-ish Tories, Cameron, May, Boris, absolutely why not a working class girl from Brum? She's got a sense of humour, she has a bit of sass. She needs to learn some debating skills, judging by PMQs; she is too genial, she needs to employ ruthlessness, but in desperation I might vote for her, if it came to it
    Rayner's not from Brum though. Your confusing he with Jess Philips. Rayner's from Stockport.
    Apols, my bad, yes I am. Philips is the fake WWC girl, Rayner is the real deal. A single mum at 16

    Rayner has a really impressive backstory, having fought through all that to be where she is
    I am a big Rayner fan, and she is not short of ambition. Getting better in action on the front bench too, gave Johnson a proper roasting at PMQs.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 5,813
    The other factor is, if Labour are doing well enough in the polls to have a chance of forming the next government, would Burnham want to re-enter the Commons anyway? There's no particular guarantee that he would get a Cabinet post, when the shadow Cabinet would have had to do very well to form the next government. Running Manchester might also be more fun with a friendly Labour government in Westminster.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 39,061
    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    It must surely be a woman, this time

    I'd make Rayner favourite right now (but not a huge fave). She is there, she shows talent, she has confidence, she is different

    Are you advocating a selection policy based solely on identity?
    lol, Yeah

    After this succession of inept posh or posh-ish Tories, Cameron, May, Boris, absolutely why not a working class girl from Brum? She's got a sense of humour, she has a bit of sass. She needs to learn some debating skills, judging by PMQs; she is too genial, she needs to employ ruthlessness, but in desperation I might vote for her, if it came to it
    Rayner's not from Brum though. Your confusing he with Jess Philips. Rayner's from Stockport.
    Apols, my bad, yes I am. Philips is the fake WWC girl, Rayner is the real deal. A single mum at 16

    Rayner has a really impressive backstory, having fought through all that to be where she is
    She's also - and this shouldn't matter, but it does - easy on the eye.
    I fancy Rachel.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,830

    The other factor is, if Labour are doing well enough in the polls to have a chance of forming the next government, would Burnham want to re-enter the Commons anyway? There's no particular guarantee that he would get a Cabinet post, when the shadow Cabinet would have had to do very well to form the next government. Running Manchester might also be more fun with a friendly Labour government in Westminster.

    If I were him I'd very much be thinking this way, but he has been quite open that he would be interested in a future return to Westminster. I wonder if he will ultimately decide not to for precisely the logic you describe, but it is clear to me that for now at least he does not think that way.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 6,194
    Excellent posting by Q (the PB one, NOT the QAnon one)

    Have already agreed with a bunch of previous comments (including by Quincel) because I think they tease out some additional worthy points.

    My own tiny, flickering flame, is that, while Starmer is probably safe from getting heaved out in foreseeable future, it seems to me possible he MIGHT just decide to hand it up? He certainly does NOT appear to be having a whole lot of fun at the moment, or at any time really since he was elected Labour leader.

    But maybe ain't what you'd call a fun-loving guy?

    Another thing that strikes me, is that Labour has finally started developing a bench worthy of prime time. For about first time since Gordo went splat?
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 3,422
    edited January 7
    HYUFD said:

    Quincel said:

    Leon said:

    It must surely be a woman, this time

    I'd make Rayner favourite right now (but not a huge fave). She is there, she shows talent, she has confidence, she is different

    Yeah this too. The biggest thing I cut from the article for space but entirely agree. I'm not making a judgement on what Labour should do, but there is a very decent chance the selectorate insists on it.
    An excellent header, thanks - there are lots of barriers in Burnham's way. And yes, I think the only thing missing from your header is the burning desire among many Labour members (including me) to have a female leader next. Even Leon thinks this, FFS!

    I know it's some time ago, but the last time Burnham stood for Labour leader his campaign was woefully lacking. He has improved a lot, but maybe not enough? Nandy is a better bet, I think - the UK's Jacinda Ardern.
    Nandy is a complete lightweight and Starmer has now demoted her from Labour's Shadow Cabinet top tier and replaced her as Shadow Foreign Secretary with David Lammy
    Oh, I am sorry. You are obviously right with your factopinion. The mistake Starmer made was making Nandy Shadow FS in the first place - she's much better off shadowing Gove at levelling up. You underestimate her, I think, but we'll see.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 46,148
    HYUFD said:

    Quincel said:

    Leon said:

    It must surely be a woman, this time

    I'd make Rayner favourite right now (but not a huge fave). She is there, she shows talent, she has confidence, she is different

    Yeah this too. The biggest thing I cut from the article for space but entirely agree. I'm not making a judgement on what Labour should do, but there is a very decent chance the selectorate insists on it.
    An excellent header, thanks - there are lots of barriers in Burnham's way. And yes, I think the only thing missing from your header is the burning desire among many Labour members (including me) to have a female leader next. Even Leon thinks this, FFS!

    I know it's some time ago, but the last time Burnham stood for Labour leader his campaign was woefully lacking. He has improved a lot, but maybe not enough? Nandy is a better bet, I think - the UK's Jacinda Ardern.
    Nandy is a complete lightweight and Starmer has now demoted her from Labour's Shadow Cabinet top tier and replaced her as Shadow Foreign Secretary with David Lammy
    No he hasn't. He has put her in the job where she knows more than anyone else in shad cabinet and which is the absolute hot spot for the next two years: the left behind towns, the red wall, the levelling up, inequality, cost of living etc etc etc.

    Unless it all kicks off in Ukraine, no voter gives a flying feck who is shadow foreign sec.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 46,148
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    It must surely be a woman, this time

    I'd make Rayner favourite right now (but not a huge fave). She is there, she shows talent, she has confidence, she is different

    Are you advocating a selection policy based solely on identity?
    lol, Yeah

    After this succession of inept posh or posh-ish Tories, Cameron, May, Boris, absolutely why not a working class girl from Brum? She's got a sense of humour, she has a bit of sass. She needs to learn some debating skills, judging by PMQs; she is too genial, she needs to employ ruthlessness, but in desperation I might vote for her, if it came to it
    Rayner's not from Brum though. Your confusing he with Jess Philips. Rayner's from Stockport.
    North of Watford, it's all the same.
    Watford? What nonsense.

    Hendon

    Hatfield and the North.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,830
    edited January 7

    Excellent posting by Q (the PB one, NOT the QAnon one)

    You've never seen us both in the same room though, have you?
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 1,251
    Angela Rayner is just a few months on from her "tory scum" episode; and now she is next labour leader? I don't see it personally.

    People are assuming that Starmer will lose the next election, but what if he gets a labour a majority? Not impossible, based on the current polls. I think the variables are many, so this isn't something that I would bet on.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,076

    Now there’s a surprise. Contrary to screeds of guff gleefully posted on PB:

    ‘Scots did not 'flock' to England for Hogmanay amid coronavirus restrictions, data shows’

    https://www.scotsman.com/health/coronavirus/covid-scotland-scots-did-not-flock-to-england-for-hogmanay-amid-coronavirus-restrictions-data-shows-3519013

    Yes. I have shared the Chronicle article bemoaning the emptiness of Newcastle at NYE before.
    There were a few. But many fewer than normal.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,212
    Bart FPT (accidentally on topic)

    Yes, Burnham has been excellent. An interesting dovish voice that reflects the views of most urban Labourites - and of course many non-Labour voters too.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,735
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    It must surely be a woman, this time

    I'd make Rayner favourite right now (but not a huge fave). She is there, she shows talent, she has confidence, she is different

    Are you advocating a selection policy based solely on identity?
    lol, Yeah

    After this succession of inept posh or posh-ish Tories, Cameron, May, Boris, absolutely why not a working class girl from Brum? She's got a sense of humour, she has a bit of sass. She needs to learn some debating skills, judging by PMQs; she is too genial, she needs to employ ruthlessness, but in desperation I might vote for her, if it came to it
    Rayner's not from Brum though. Your confusing he with Jess Philips. Rayner's from Stockport.
    Apols, my bad, yes I am. Philips is the fake WWC girl, Rayner is the real deal. A single mum at 16

    Rayner has a really impressive backstory, having fought through all that to be where she is
    I am a big Rayner fan, and she is not short of ambition. Getting better in action on the front bench too, gave Johnson a proper roasting at PMQs.
    She's the first person mentioned as Labour leader in decades that I could consider voting for.

    I'm not getting over-excited about this, because I have never voted Labour. Indeed I utterly despise the party and all it stands for, and I would rather vote for Vlad Dracul's nastier cousin, but the last time I had these vague weird stirrings was with Blair - "you know, I could vote for him". I never did, but millions like me really did, and Labour won huge majorities

    Mainly it is just her identity: white working class single mum with an illiterate mother. Jeez. Well done her. Seriously! Sends a great message to a lot of disenfranchised people, YOU CAN DO IT

    Also she seems to have something about her. An air. Dunno. Sass? Maybe nothing. But it is there. I can imagine her talking patriotically (with all the caveats) and I can imagine me nodding along, thinking, Yeah, Ange, go for it

    We've had a long, enervating parade of public school Tories. It is time for A Comp Girl


  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,076
    Quincel said:

    Funny coincidence but I just wrote FPT that Burnham is the only devolved leader that has shown genuine leadership through this entire pandemic. I think he's boosted his chances of getting the job.

    I don't get Quincel's logic here. Labour doing better has surely receded the chance that Starmer will be replaced before the general election and to be leader Burnham needs the next leadership election to be after the next general election. That looks more likely today than it did a few months ago when people were speculating that Starmer might need to be replaced.

    Starmer being safer in his job is good news for Burnham backers, just as Boris being safer in his job is good news for Starmer as next PM backers (since if Boris loses his job first then Starmer can't be next PM).

    So in my mind a pre-election challenge to Starmer has always been extremely unlikely. My point is that the better Starmer does now and the later the Tories therefore call an election the less likely Burnham is to become leader because:

    1. There is more time for his star to fade, and someone else to overtake him as the heir apparent; and
    2. The more likely it is for Starmer to win the election (since the Tories delaying it is presumably a sign they aren't in as strong a position as if they went for a snap election), and in such a scenario Burnham is much less likely to replace him as leader since so much more time would pass when Burnham could become one of an old generation and new figures could gain prominence.
    But surely. The later an election is called, the more likely Burnham is to be an MP after it.
    Which is the absolute sine qua non for him to be even on the ballot.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 92,646
    edited January 7
    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    It must surely be a woman, this time

    I'd make Rayner favourite right now (but not a huge fave). She is there, she shows talent, she has confidence, she is different

    Are you advocating a selection policy based solely on identity?
    lol, Yeah

    After this succession of inept posh or posh-ish Tories, Cameron, May, Boris, absolutely why not a working class girl from Brum? She's got a sense of humour, she has a bit of sass. She needs to learn some debating skills, judging by PMQs; she is too genial, she needs to employ ruthlessness, but in desperation I might vote for her, if it came to it
    Rayner's not from Brum though. Your confusing he with Jess Philips. Rayner's from Stockport.
    Apols, my bad, yes I am. Philips is the fake WWC girl, Rayner is the real deal. A single mum at 16

    Rayner has a really impressive backstory, having fought through all that to be where she is
    She's also - and this shouldn't matter, but it does - easy on the eye.
    And she knows it, and uses it

    A hint of Thatcher, perhaps
    Except Thatcher made it from provincial Lincolnshire to Oxford, a career as a chemist and a tax barrister before becoming an MP.

    Rayner did not even do A Levels nor did she have a career of much note before becoming MP. Yes she had a tough backstory but so did many other people
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 92,646

    HYUFD said:

    Quincel said:

    Leon said:

    It must surely be a woman, this time

    I'd make Rayner favourite right now (but not a huge fave). She is there, she shows talent, she has confidence, she is different

    Yeah this too. The biggest thing I cut from the article for space but entirely agree. I'm not making a judgement on what Labour should do, but there is a very decent chance the selectorate insists on it.
    An excellent header, thanks - there are lots of barriers in Burnham's way. And yes, I think the only thing missing from your header is the burning desire among many Labour members (including me) to have a female leader next. Even Leon thinks this, FFS!

    I know it's some time ago, but the last time Burnham stood for Labour leader his campaign was woefully lacking. He has improved a lot, but maybe not enough? Nandy is a better bet, I think - the UK's Jacinda Ardern.
    Nandy is a complete lightweight and Starmer has now demoted her from Labour's Shadow Cabinet top tier and replaced her as Shadow Foreign Secretary with David Lammy
    No he hasn't. He has put her in the job where she knows more than anyone else in shad cabinet and which is the absolute hot spot for the next two years: the left behind towns, the red wall, the levelling up, inequality, cost of living etc etc etc.

    Unless it all kicks off in Ukraine, no voter gives a flying feck who is shadow foreign sec.

    If Starmer becomes PM she was in line for a great office of state.

    Now she isn't and Lammy, Reeves and Cooper are instead Starmer's top tier
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,830
    dixiedean said:

    Quincel said:

    Funny coincidence but I just wrote FPT that Burnham is the only devolved leader that has shown genuine leadership through this entire pandemic. I think he's boosted his chances of getting the job.

    I don't get Quincel's logic here. Labour doing better has surely receded the chance that Starmer will be replaced before the general election and to be leader Burnham needs the next leadership election to be after the next general election. That looks more likely today than it did a few months ago when people were speculating that Starmer might need to be replaced.

    Starmer being safer in his job is good news for Burnham backers, just as Boris being safer in his job is good news for Starmer as next PM backers (since if Boris loses his job first then Starmer can't be next PM).

    So in my mind a pre-election challenge to Starmer has always been extremely unlikely. My point is that the better Starmer does now and the later the Tories therefore call an election the less likely Burnham is to become leader because:

    1. There is more time for his star to fade, and someone else to overtake him as the heir apparent; and
    2. The more likely it is for Starmer to win the election (since the Tories delaying it is presumably a sign they aren't in as strong a position as if they went for a snap election), and in such a scenario Burnham is much less likely to replace him as leader since so much more time would pass when Burnham could become one of an old generation and new figures could gain prominence.
    But surely. The later an election is called, the more likely Burnham is to be an MP after it.
    Which is the absolute sine qua non for him to be even on the ballot.
    Yes, but I don't really consider his chances of becoming an MP that important. It's his chances of being a prominent Labour figure who people want to make leader at the right moment. And if he becomes an MP in 2024 but Starmer becomes PM then it massively harm Burnham's chances of becoming leader. Even if Starmer loses, 2024 is a long time away when anything could happen to undermine Burnham or boost someone else (Streeting is having a good spell right now).

    The other thing time does, from a purely practical betting perspective, is make it more likely that some event/swing occurs in the betting markets so you can trade out for a good profit. I think the chances of Burnham just sitting majestically at the top of the market for several years is pretty low. So even if he did become leader following a 2024 election defeat for Labour you would likely have good opportunities to cash out for profit anyway.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 6,194
    edited January 7
    Serious question (seriously) is Andy Burnham's hair truly his own?

    I ask this question (as a bald person) because whenever I see his pic, this question springs to mind. Which raises further questions re: possible impact on voters?

    Wearing a rug is NOT the kiss of death politically. Especially if only your wig-maker knows for sure!

    FYI, this ain't knocking Burnham. Of whom I know next to nothing, except that he's in Labour terms a moderate (I think?) which I tend to like in my center-left politicos these days.

    EDIT - Should note that I do on occasion feel intense, unreasoning rage at non-youngish men with great hair!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,735
    edited January 7
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    It must surely be a woman, this time

    I'd make Rayner favourite right now (but not a huge fave). She is there, she shows talent, she has confidence, she is different

    Are you advocating a selection policy based solely on identity?
    lol, Yeah

    After this succession of inept posh or posh-ish Tories, Cameron, May, Boris, absolutely why not a working class girl from Brum? She's got a sense of humour, she has a bit of sass. She needs to learn some debating skills, judging by PMQs; she is too genial, she needs to employ ruthlessness, but in desperation I might vote for her, if it came to it
    Rayner's not from Brum though. Your confusing he with Jess Philips. Rayner's from Stockport.
    Apols, my bad, yes I am. Philips is the fake WWC girl, Rayner is the real deal. A single mum at 16

    Rayner has a really impressive backstory, having fought through all that to be where she is
    She's also - and this shouldn't matter, but it does - easy on the eye.
    And she knows it, and uses it

    A hint of Thatcher, perhaps
    Except Thatcher made it from provincial Lincolnshire to Oxford, a career as a chemist and a tax barrister before becoming an MP.

    Rayner did not even do A Levels nor did she have a career of much note before becoming MP. Yes she said a tough backstory but so did many other people
    Yes, but she's turned that genuinely fierce backstory into becoming deputy leader of Her Majesty's Opposition and acquitting herself ably in the Commons against the Prime Minister

    Lots of single mums with illiterate mothers do well, despite the odds, and good for them, few achieve what Rayner has already done - and bravo to her

    I don't want to overdo the adulation, she is a horrible lefty, but if she wins it might be good for the country, and do more for levelling up than any high speed train line to Doncaster

    And on that uncharacteristically generous note, night night PB
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 10,078
    Rayner is great but not papabile in a civilised country.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 6,474
    dixiedean said:

    Now there’s a surprise. Contrary to screeds of guff gleefully posted on PB:

    ‘Scots did not 'flock' to England for Hogmanay amid coronavirus restrictions, data shows’

    https://www.scotsman.com/health/coronavirus/covid-scotland-scots-did-not-flock-to-england-for-hogmanay-amid-coronavirus-restrictions-data-shows-3519013

    Yes. I have shared the Chronicle article bemoaning the emptiness of Newcastle at NYE before.
    There were a few. But many fewer than normal.
    Yes, I spotted that. Thank you. But the Scotsman has done some proper investigative work to confirm anecdotal evidence.

    It is the blatant bullshitting on PB that is so irksome. Loudmouth know-it-alls pointing the finger and laughing at Scotland and Wales when clearly they haven’t got the faintest clue what they are talking about. The Hogmanay exodus nonsense went on for days and days. Blatant lies.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,212
    Leon said:

    It must surely be a woman, this time

    I'd make Rayner favourite right now (but not a huge fave). She is there, she shows talent, she has confidence, she is different

    Hmm. Nope. Much of the PB love-in for Angela is due to primeval reasons. Basically a lot of middle aged blokes dreaming, as Boris does quite obviously during PMQs with her (hard to watch).

    She’s good at the despatch box in infrequent doses, but I don’t see that she has the nous or the ideas to be a good Loto or PM, although I can see her in the Prescott role. Reeves is the one.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,830

    Serious question (seriously) is Andy Burnham's hair truly his own?

    I ask this question (as a bald person) because whenever I see his pic, this question springs to mind. Which raises further questions re: possible impact on voters?

    Wearing a rug is NOT the kiss of death politically. Especially if only your wig-maker knows for sure!

    FYI, this ain't knocking Burnham. Of whom I know next to nothing, except that he's in Labour terms a moderate (I think?) which I tend to like in my center-left politicos these days.

    I used to knock about Manchester political circles a bit more seriously than I do now, being friends with a fair few activists from all 3 main parties (and acquaintances with some green activists also). Never heard any suggestion his hair isn't legit, but I can't say I know for sure.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,212
    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    It must surely be a woman, this time

    I'd make Rayner favourite right now (but not a huge fave). She is there, she shows talent, she has confidence, she is different

    Are you advocating a selection policy based solely on identity?
    lol, Yeah

    After this succession of inept posh or posh-ish Tories, Cameron, May, Boris, absolutely why not a working class girl from Brum? She's got a sense of humour, she has a bit of sass. She needs to learn some debating skills, judging by PMQs; she is too genial, she needs to employ ruthlessness, but in desperation I might vote for her, if it came to it
    She’s from very obviously from Greater Manchester, not Birmingham!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 92,646

    Leon said:

    It must surely be a woman, this time

    I'd make Rayner favourite right now (but not a huge fave). She is there, she shows talent, she has confidence, she is different

    Hmm. Nope. Much of the PB love-in for Angela is due to primeval reasons. Basically a lot of middle aged blokes dreaming, as Boris does quite obviously during PMQs with her (hard to watch).

    She’s good at the despatch box in infrequent doses, but I don’t see that she has the nous or the ideas to be a good Loto or PM, although I can see her in the Prescott role. Reeves is the one.
    Yes she is basically Starmer's John Prescott
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 604
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    It must surely be a woman, this time

    I'd make Rayner favourite right now (but not a huge fave). She is there, she shows talent, she has confidence, she is different

    Are you advocating a selection policy based solely on identity?
    lol, Yeah

    After this succession of inept posh or posh-ish Tories, Cameron, May, Boris, absolutely why not a working class girl from Brum? She's got a sense of humour, she has a bit of sass. She needs to learn some debating skills, judging by PMQs; she is too genial, she needs to employ ruthlessness, but in desperation I might vote for her, if it came to it
    Rayner's not from Brum though. Your confusing he with Jess Philips. Rayner's from Stockport.
    Apols, my bad, yes I am. Philips is the fake WWC girl, Rayner is the real deal. A single mum at 16

    Rayner has a really impressive backstory, having fought through all that to be where she is
    She's also - and this shouldn't matter, but it does - easy on the eye.
    And she knows it, and uses it

    A hint of Thatcher, perhaps
    Except Thatcher made it from provincial Lincolnshire to Oxford, a career as a chemist and a tax barrister before becoming an MP.

    Rayner did not even do A Levels nor did she have a career of much note before becoming MP. Yes she had a tough backstory but so did many other people
    She'll be just as impressive as Thatcher if she ends up PM. More so, in fact. The outcome stats for teen, single mothers are horrendous.

    No one cares about your Highers once you have your degree.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,659

    Christopher Snowdon
    @cjsnowdon
    ·
    1h
    ‘Adam Finn, professor of paediatrics at the University of Bristol and a member of the JCVI, told The Telegraph that from this data "you might be able to cautiously conclude that restrictions are not the complete answer to this particular wave".’ 😆

    Try not to sound so disappointed, Adam....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 46,148

    Christopher Snowdon
    @cjsnowdon
    ·
    1h
    ‘Adam Finn, professor of paediatrics at the University of Bristol and a member of the JCVI, told The Telegraph that from this data "you might be able to cautiously conclude that restrictions are not the complete answer to this particular wave".’ 😆

    Try not to sound so disappointed, Adam....
    I'm sure iSAGE will back him up.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 3,422
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    It must surely be a woman, this time

    I'd make Rayner favourite right now (but not a huge fave). She is there, she shows talent, she has confidence, she is different

    Are you advocating a selection policy based solely on identity?
    lol, Yeah

    After this succession of inept posh or posh-ish Tories, Cameron, May, Boris, absolutely why not a working class girl from Brum? She's got a sense of humour, she has a bit of sass. She needs to learn some debating skills, judging by PMQs; she is too genial, she needs to employ ruthlessness, but in desperation I might vote for her, if it came to it
    Rayner's not from Brum though. Your confusing he with Jess Philips. Rayner's from Stockport.
    Apols, my bad, yes I am. Philips is the fake WWC girl, Rayner is the real deal. A single mum at 16

    Rayner has a really impressive backstory, having fought through all that to be where she is
    I am a big Rayner fan, and she is not short of ambition. Getting better in action on the front bench too, gave Johnson a proper roasting at PMQs.
    She's the first person mentioned as Labour leader in decades that I could consider voting for.

    I'm not getting over-excited about this, because I have never voted Labour. Indeed I utterly despise the party and all it stands for, and I would rather vote for Vlad Dracul's nastier cousin, but the last time I had these vague weird stirrings was with Blair - "you know, I could vote for him". I never did, but millions like me really did, and Labour won huge majorities

    Mainly it is just her identity: white working class single mum with an illiterate mother. Jeez. Well done her. Seriously! Sends a great message to a lot of disenfranchised people, YOU CAN DO IT

    Also she seems to have something about her. An air. Dunno. Sass? Maybe nothing. But it is there. I can imagine her talking patriotically (with all the caveats) and I can imagine me nodding along, thinking, Yeah, Ange, go for it

    We've had a long, enervating parade of public school Tories. It is time for A Comp Girl


    TL:DR; you'd never vote Labour, even if their leader was the woman of your fantasies.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 604

    Leon said:

    It must surely be a woman, this time

    I'd make Rayner favourite right now (but not a huge fave). She is there, she shows talent, she has confidence, she is different

    Hmm. Nope. Much of the PB love-in for Angela is due to primeval reasons. Basically a lot of middle aged blokes dreaming, as Boris does quite obviously during PMQs with her (hard to watch).

    She’s good at the despatch box in infrequent doses, but I don’t see that she has the nous or the ideas to be a good Loto or PM, although I can see her in the Prescott role. Reeves is the one.
    I don't get the attraction. Perhaps you have to be a certain age.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 6,474
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    It must surely be a woman, this time

    I'd make Rayner favourite right now (but not a huge fave). She is there, she shows talent, she has confidence, she is different

    My thoughts as well, wouldn't be suprised if they go for some kind of all women shortlist (or woke-acceptable variation thereof)

    But I think that Starmer will be around for a while yet. He hasn't got this far to just flake out.
    If I was forced to make a bet now, with real money, I would wager that Boris scrapes home to a tiny majority, as Starmer loses with dignity, having restored Labour to proper Opposition - then Rayner takes over, and wins easily in 2028 or whenever

    I just don't see how Labour can hope to get away with yet another white male leader, the 827th in a row. At some point it becomes untenable, and we are at that point, the Tories have had two women and the likely Tory successor to Boris, as of now, is a teetotal Borrower of Indian origin, and two foot high, and the alternative is a weirdly hot MILF

    On current polls Starmer would be PM in a hung parliament if he gets SNP support
    Thank you for your original input. I’ve never seen such sparkling analysis before. You’re a regular Dorothy Parker.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,735

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    It must surely be a woman, this time

    I'd make Rayner favourite right now (but not a huge fave). She is there, she shows talent, she has confidence, she is different

    Are you advocating a selection policy based solely on identity?
    lol, Yeah

    After this succession of inept posh or posh-ish Tories, Cameron, May, Boris, absolutely why not a working class girl from Brum? She's got a sense of humour, she has a bit of sass. She needs to learn some debating skills, judging by PMQs; she is too genial, she needs to employ ruthlessness, but in desperation I might vote for her, if it came to it
    She’s from very obviously from Greater Manchester, not Birmingham!
    Yes, I apologised earlier

    But that said, who cares. Birmingham, Glasgow, Sunderland, Swindon, Plymouth, they're all up north and they're all toilets, whence it is frankly amazing people emerge vaguely literate
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,076

    Bart FPT (accidentally on topic)

    Yes, Burnham has been excellent. An interesting dovish voice that reflects the views of most urban Labourites - and of course many non-Labour voters too.

    Not sure he's ever been called dovish before.
    He's had a complete transformation since becoming mayor. He oozes confidence away from New Labour spin doctors. For whom he was the great young hope to continue the never ending reign.
    Looks much better when he gets to choose his own clobber too. Cool Dad rather than another shiny suit
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,212
    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    It must surely be a woman, this time

    I'd make Rayner favourite right now (but not a huge fave). She is there, she shows talent, she has confidence, she is different

    Are you advocating a selection policy based solely on identity?
    lol, Yeah

    After this succession of inept posh or posh-ish Tories, Cameron, May, Boris, absolutely why not a working class girl from Brum? She's got a sense of humour, she has a bit of sass. She needs to learn some debating skills, judging by PMQs; she is too genial, she needs to employ ruthlessness, but in desperation I might vote for her, if it came to it
    Rayner's not from Brum though. Your confusing he with Jess Philips. Rayner's from Stockport.
    Apols, my bad, yes I am. Philips is the fake WWC girl, Rayner is the real deal. A single mum at 16

    Rayner has a really impressive backstory, having fought through all that to be where she is
    It’s a very fair point that she is an absolutely gold plated self-made woman but that in and of itself doesn’t make her PM material.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,735

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    It must surely be a woman, this time

    I'd make Rayner favourite right now (but not a huge fave). She is there, she shows talent, she has confidence, she is different

    Are you advocating a selection policy based solely on identity?
    lol, Yeah

    After this succession of inept posh or posh-ish Tories, Cameron, May, Boris, absolutely why not a working class girl from Brum? She's got a sense of humour, she has a bit of sass. She needs to learn some debating skills, judging by PMQs; she is too genial, she needs to employ ruthlessness, but in desperation I might vote for her, if it came to it
    Rayner's not from Brum though. Your confusing he with Jess Philips. Rayner's from Stockport.
    Apols, my bad, yes I am. Philips is the fake WWC girl, Rayner is the real deal. A single mum at 16

    Rayner has a really impressive backstory, having fought through all that to be where she is
    I am a big Rayner fan, and she is not short of ambition. Getting better in action on the front bench too, gave Johnson a proper roasting at PMQs.
    She's the first person mentioned as Labour leader in decades that I could consider voting for.

    I'm not getting over-excited about this, because I have never voted Labour. Indeed I utterly despise the party and all it stands for, and I would rather vote for Vlad Dracul's nastier cousin, but the last time I had these vague weird stirrings was with Blair - "you know, I could vote for him". I never did, but millions like me really did, and Labour won huge majorities

    Mainly it is just her identity: white working class single mum with an illiterate mother. Jeez. Well done her. Seriously! Sends a great message to a lot of disenfranchised people, YOU CAN DO IT

    Also she seems to have something about her. An air. Dunno. Sass? Maybe nothing. But it is there. I can imagine her talking patriotically (with all the caveats) and I can imagine me nodding along, thinking, Yeah, Ange, go for it

    We've had a long, enervating parade of public school Tories. It is time for A Comp Girl


    TL:DR; you'd never vote Labour, even if their leader was the woman of your fantasies.
    Yep, but I WAS genuinely if slightly tempted by Blair, as I was never tempted by Brown, Smith, Kinnock, Miliband etc, and Blair was your most successful leader

    That is my honest admission. Make of it what you will
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 6,194
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    It must surely be a woman, this time

    I'd make Rayner favourite right now (but not a huge fave). She is there, she shows talent, she has confidence, she is different

    Are you advocating a selection policy based solely on identity?
    lol, Yeah

    After this succession of inept posh or posh-ish Tories, Cameron, May, Boris, absolutely why not a working class girl from Brum? She's got a sense of humour, she has a bit of sass. She needs to learn some debating skills, judging by PMQs; she is too genial, she needs to employ ruthlessness, but in desperation I might vote for her, if it came to it
    Rayner's not from Brum though. Your confusing he with Jess Philips. Rayner's from Stockport.
    Apols, my bad, yes I am. Philips is the fake WWC girl, Rayner is the real deal. A single mum at 16

    Rayner has a really impressive backstory, having fought through all that to be where she is
    She's also - and this shouldn't matter, but it does - easy on the eye.
    And she knows it, and uses it

    A hint of Thatcher, perhaps
    Except Thatcher made it from provincial Lincolnshire to Oxford, a career as a chemist and a tax barrister before becoming an MP.

    Rayner did not even do A Levels nor did she have a career of much note before becoming MP. Yes she had a tough backstory but so did many other people
    So you don't think that being top regional official of UK's largest trade union was chopped liver?

    Some people might say that it was bigger deal than being a chemist & tax attorney.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 92,646
    Eabhal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    It must surely be a woman, this time

    I'd make Rayner favourite right now (but not a huge fave). She is there, she shows talent, she has confidence, she is different

    Are you advocating a selection policy based solely on identity?
    lol, Yeah

    After this succession of inept posh or posh-ish Tories, Cameron, May, Boris, absolutely why not a working class girl from Brum? She's got a sense of humour, she has a bit of sass. She needs to learn some debating skills, judging by PMQs; she is too genial, she needs to employ ruthlessness, but in desperation I might vote for her, if it came to it
    Rayner's not from Brum though. Your confusing he with Jess Philips. Rayner's from Stockport.
    Apols, my bad, yes I am. Philips is the fake WWC girl, Rayner is the real deal. A single mum at 16

    Rayner has a really impressive backstory, having fought through all that to be where she is
    She's also - and this shouldn't matter, but it does - easy on the eye.
    And she knows it, and uses it

    A hint of Thatcher, perhaps
    Except Thatcher made it from provincial Lincolnshire to Oxford, a career as a chemist and a tax barrister before becoming an MP.

    Rayner did not even do A Levels nor did she have a career of much note before becoming MP. Yes she had a tough backstory but so did many other people
    She'll be just as impressive as Thatcher if she ends up PM. More so, in fact. The outcome stats for teen, single mothers are horrendous.

    No one cares about your Highers once you have your degree.
    Thatcher was a genuine leader of a permanent member of the UN Security Council and G7 power who could go head to head on equal terms if not more so with the Presidents of the USA, Russia, France, China etc.

    Rayner is just a female John Prescott, nothing more
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 46,148
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    It must surely be a woman, this time

    I'd make Rayner favourite right now (but not a huge fave). She is there, she shows talent, she has confidence, she is different

    Are you advocating a selection policy based solely on identity?
    lol, Yeah

    After this succession of inept posh or posh-ish Tories, Cameron, May, Boris, absolutely why not a working class girl from Brum? She's got a sense of humour, she has a bit of sass. She needs to learn some debating skills, judging by PMQs; she is too genial, she needs to employ ruthlessness, but in desperation I might vote for her, if it came to it
    She’s from very obviously from Greater Manchester, not Birmingham!
    Yes, I apologised earlier

    But that said, who cares. Birmingham, Glasgow, Sunderland, Swindon, Plymouth, they're all up north and they're all toilets, whence it is frankly amazing people emerge vaguely literate
    Gee. Thanks. I staggered out of Birmingham some 35 years ago barely able to say my own name, but somehow have managed to have a career and make my way in the world.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,659

    Christopher Snowdon
    @cjsnowdon
    ·
    1h
    ‘Adam Finn, professor of paediatrics at the University of Bristol and a member of the JCVI, told The Telegraph that from this data "you might be able to cautiously conclude that restrictions are not the complete answer to this particular wave".’ 😆

    Try not to sound so disappointed, Adam....
    I'm sure iSAGE will back him up.
    I'm sure iSAGE are still dreaming up restrictions that are 99.9999% of the answer to this particular wave.

    (And iSAGE is shit branding for a group of scientists in this Time of Global Warming.....it makes it look like they are being perverse for the sake of it.

    Oh.)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 92,646
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    It must surely be a woman, this time

    I'd make Rayner favourite right now (but not a huge fave). She is there, she shows talent, she has confidence, she is different

    Are you advocating a selection policy based solely on identity?
    lol, Yeah

    After this succession of inept posh or posh-ish Tories, Cameron, May, Boris, absolutely why not a working class girl from Brum? She's got a sense of humour, she has a bit of sass. She needs to learn some debating skills, judging by PMQs; she is too genial, she needs to employ ruthlessness, but in desperation I might vote for her, if it came to it
    Rayner's not from Brum though. Your confusing he with Jess Philips. Rayner's from Stockport.
    Apols, my bad, yes I am. Philips is the fake WWC girl, Rayner is the real deal. A single mum at 16

    Rayner has a really impressive backstory, having fought through all that to be where she is
    I am a big Rayner fan, and she is not short of ambition. Getting better in action on the front bench too, gave Johnson a proper roasting at PMQs.
    She's the first person mentioned as Labour leader in decades that I could consider voting for.

    I'm not getting over-excited about this, because I have never voted Labour. Indeed I utterly despise the party and all it stands for, and I would rather vote for Vlad Dracul's nastier cousin, but the last time I had these vague weird stirrings was with Blair - "you know, I could vote for him". I never did, but millions like me really did, and Labour won huge majorities

    Mainly it is just her identity: white working class single mum with an illiterate mother. Jeez. Well done her. Seriously! Sends a great message to a lot of disenfranchised people, YOU CAN DO IT

    Also she seems to have something about her. An air. Dunno. Sass? Maybe nothing. But it is there. I can imagine her talking patriotically (with all the caveats) and I can imagine me nodding along, thinking, Yeah, Ange, go for it

    We've had a long, enervating parade of public school Tories. It is time for A Comp Girl


    TL:DR; you'd never vote Labour, even if their leader was the woman of your fantasies.
    Yep, but I WAS genuinely if slightly tempted by Blair, as I was never tempted by Brown, Smith, Kinnock, Miliband etc, and Blair was your most successful leader

    That is my honest admission. Make of it what you will
    Boris leads Rayner by 16% on a hypothetical best PM poll, just 23% prefer Rayner

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1473007807989526528?s=20
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 6,194
    Quincel said:

    Serious question (seriously) is Andy Burnham's hair truly his own?

    I ask this question (as a bald person) because whenever I see his pic, this question springs to mind. Which raises further questions re: possible impact on voters?

    Wearing a rug is NOT the kiss of death politically. Especially if only your wig-maker knows for sure!

    FYI, this ain't knocking Burnham. Of whom I know next to nothing, except that he's in Labour terms a moderate (I think?) which I tend to like in my center-left politicos these days.

    I used to knock about Manchester political circles a bit more seriously than I do now, being friends with a fair few activists from all 3 main parties (and acquaintances with some green activists also). Never heard any suggestion his hair isn't legit, but I can't say I know for sure.
    Probably my own bias against those with great hair.

    Personally find it unbelievable - yet know plenty of cases where it really is the Real McCoy!
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 3,422
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    It must surely be a woman, this time

    I'd make Rayner favourite right now (but not a huge fave). She is there, she shows talent, she has confidence, she is different

    Are you advocating a selection policy based solely on identity?
    lol, Yeah

    After this succession of inept posh or posh-ish Tories, Cameron, May, Boris, absolutely why not a working class girl from Brum? She's got a sense of humour, she has a bit of sass. She needs to learn some debating skills, judging by PMQs; she is too genial, she needs to employ ruthlessness, but in desperation I might vote for her, if it came to it
    Rayner's not from Brum though. Your confusing he with Jess Philips. Rayner's from Stockport.
    Apols, my bad, yes I am. Philips is the fake WWC girl, Rayner is the real deal. A single mum at 16

    Rayner has a really impressive backstory, having fought through all that to be where she is
    I am a big Rayner fan, and she is not short of ambition. Getting better in action on the front bench too, gave Johnson a proper roasting at PMQs.
    She's the first person mentioned as Labour leader in decades that I could consider voting for.

    I'm not getting over-excited about this, because I have never voted Labour. Indeed I utterly despise the party and all it stands for, and I would rather vote for Vlad Dracul's nastier cousin, but the last time I had these vague weird stirrings was with Blair - "you know, I could vote for him". I never did, but millions like me really did, and Labour won huge majorities

    Mainly it is just her identity: white working class single mum with an illiterate mother. Jeez. Well done her. Seriously! Sends a great message to a lot of disenfranchised people, YOU CAN DO IT

    Also she seems to have something about her. An air. Dunno. Sass? Maybe nothing. But it is there. I can imagine her talking patriotically (with all the caveats) and I can imagine me nodding along, thinking, Yeah, Ange, go for it

    We've had a long, enervating parade of public school Tories. It is time for A Comp Girl


    TL:DR; you'd never vote Labour, even if their leader was the woman of your fantasies.
    Yep, but I WAS genuinely if slightly tempted by Blair, as I was never tempted by Brown, Smith, Kinnock, Miliband etc, and Blair was your most successful leader

    That is my honest admission. Make of it what you will
    Yes, but you've never succumbed to your temptation. (To vote Labour, that is).
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 46,148
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    It must surely be a woman, this time

    I'd make Rayner favourite right now (but not a huge fave). She is there, she shows talent, she has confidence, she is different

    Are you advocating a selection policy based solely on identity?
    lol, Yeah

    After this succession of inept posh or posh-ish Tories, Cameron, May, Boris, absolutely why not a working class girl from Brum? She's got a sense of humour, she has a bit of sass. She needs to learn some debating skills, judging by PMQs; she is too genial, she needs to employ ruthlessness, but in desperation I might vote for her, if it came to it
    She’s from very obviously from Greater Manchester, not Birmingham!
    Yes, I apologised earlier

    But that said, who cares. Birmingham, Glasgow, Sunderland, Swindon, Plymouth, they're all up north and they're all toilets, whence it is frankly amazing people emerge vaguely literate
    Hold on. Weren't your formative years spent in that Northern shithole known to map makers as rural Herefordshire?

    I'm pretty sure you were drinking a toast to a return to your roots in the Marches just before xmas.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,136
    edited January 7

    Christopher Snowdon
    @cjsnowdon
    ·
    1h
    ‘Adam Finn, professor of paediatrics at the University of Bristol and a member of the JCVI, told The Telegraph that from this data "you might be able to cautiously conclude that restrictions are not the complete answer to this particular wave".’ 😆

    Try not to sound so disappointed, Adam....
    I'm sure iSAGE will back him up.
    I'm sure iSAGE are still dreaming up restrictions that are 99.9999% of the answer to this particular wave.

    (And iSAGE is shit branding for a group of scientists in this Time of Global Warming.....it makes it look like they are being perverse for the sake of it.

    Oh.)
    Today among other things they called for all face to face university tuition to be cancelled and that everybody should take a LFT test every time they leave the house....

    All that plastic ain't good for the environment.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 6,474
    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    It must surely be a woman, this time

    I'd make Rayner favourite right now (but not a huge fave). She is there, she shows talent, she has confidence, she is different

    Are you advocating a selection policy based solely on identity?
    lol, Yeah

    After this succession of inept posh or posh-ish Tories, Cameron, May, Boris, absolutely why not a working class girl from Brum? She's got a sense of humour, she has a bit of sass. She needs to learn some debating skills, judging by PMQs; she is too genial, she needs to employ ruthlessness, but in desperation I might vote for her, if it came to it
    Rayner's not from Brum though. Your confusing he with Jess Philips. Rayner's from Stockport.
    Apols, my bad, yes I am. Philips is the fake WWC girl, Rayner is the real deal. A single mum at 16

    Rayner has a really impressive backstory, having fought through all that to be where she is
    She's also - and this shouldn't matter, but it does - easy on the eye.
    And she knows it, and uses it

    A hint of Thatcher, perhaps
    Except Thatcher made it from provincial Lincolnshire to Oxford, a career as a chemist and a tax barrister before becoming an MP.

    Rayner did not even do A Levels nor did she have a career of much note before becoming MP. Yes she had a tough backstory but so did many other people
    She'll be just as impressive as Thatcher if she ends up PM. More so, in fact. The outcome stats for teen, single mothers are horrendous.

    No one cares about your Highers once you have your degree.
    Thatcher was a genuine leader of a permanent member of the UN Security Council and G7 power who could go head to head on equal terms if not more so with the Presidents of the USA, Russia, France, China etc.

    Rayner is just a female John Prescott, nothing more
    Could you ooze a bit more Tory snobbery please.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 604

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    It must surely be a woman, this time

    I'd make Rayner favourite right now (but not a huge fave). She is there, she shows talent, she has confidence, she is different

    Are you advocating a selection policy based solely on identity?
    lol, Yeah

    After this succession of inept posh or posh-ish Tories, Cameron, May, Boris, absolutely why not a working class girl from Brum? She's got a sense of humour, she has a bit of sass. She needs to learn some debating skills, judging by PMQs; she is too genial, she needs to employ ruthlessness, but in desperation I might vote for her, if it came to it
    Rayner's not from Brum though. Your confusing he with Jess Philips. Rayner's from Stockport.
    Apols, my bad, yes I am. Philips is the fake WWC girl, Rayner is the real deal. A single mum at 16

    Rayner has a really impressive backstory, having fought through all that to be where she is
    It’s a very fair point that she is an absolutely gold plated self-made woman but that in and of itself doesn’t make her PM material.
    I think she's more qualified than an old Etonian with a 1st in PPE.

    The equivalent for someone from that background would be astronaut, self made billionaire or something
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,735

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    It must surely be a woman, this time

    I'd make Rayner favourite right now (but not a huge fave). She is there, she shows talent, she has confidence, she is different

    Are you advocating a selection policy based solely on identity?
    lol, Yeah

    After this succession of inept posh or posh-ish Tories, Cameron, May, Boris, absolutely why not a working class girl from Brum? She's got a sense of humour, she has a bit of sass. She needs to learn some debating skills, judging by PMQs; she is too genial, she needs to employ ruthlessness, but in desperation I might vote for her, if it came to it
    She’s from very obviously from Greater Manchester, not Birmingham!
    Yes, I apologised earlier

    But that said, who cares. Birmingham, Glasgow, Sunderland, Swindon, Plymouth, they're all up north and they're all toilets, whence it is frankly amazing people emerge vaguely literate
    Gee. Thanks. I staggered out of Birmingham some 35 years ago barely able to say my own name, but somehow have managed to have a career and make my way in the world.
    I've heard of you. The guy that got out of Brum. Well done!
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 3,422
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    It must surely be a woman, this time

    I'd make Rayner favourite right now (but not a huge fave). She is there, she shows talent, she has confidence, she is different

    Are you advocating a selection policy based solely on identity?
    lol, Yeah

    After this succession of inept posh or posh-ish Tories, Cameron, May, Boris, absolutely why not a working class girl from Brum? She's got a sense of humour, she has a bit of sass. She needs to learn some debating skills, judging by PMQs; she is too genial, she needs to employ ruthlessness, but in desperation I might vote for her, if it came to it
    Rayner's not from Brum though. Your confusing he with Jess Philips. Rayner's from Stockport.
    Apols, my bad, yes I am. Philips is the fake WWC girl, Rayner is the real deal. A single mum at 16

    Rayner has a really impressive backstory, having fought through all that to be where she is
    She's also - and this shouldn't matter, but it does - easy on the eye.
    And she knows it, and uses it

    A hint of Thatcher, perhaps
    Except Thatcher made it from provincial Lincolnshire to Oxford, a career as a chemist and a tax barrister before becoming an MP.

    Rayner did not even do A Levels nor did she have a career of much note before becoming MP. Yes she had a tough backstory but so did many other people
    And she didn't go to a grammar school.
    That nails it.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 894

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    It must surely be a woman, this time

    I'd make Rayner favourite right now (but not a huge fave). She is there, she shows talent, she has confidence, she is different

    Are you advocating a selection policy based solely on identity?
    lol, Yeah

    After this succession of inept posh or posh-ish Tories, Cameron, May, Boris, absolutely why not a working class girl from Brum? She's got a sense of humour, she has a bit of sass. She needs to learn some debating skills, judging by PMQs; she is too genial, she needs to employ ruthlessness, but in desperation I might vote for her, if it came to it
    Rayner's not from Brum though. Your confusing he with Jess Philips. Rayner's from Stockport.
    Apols, my bad, yes I am. Philips is the fake WWC girl, Rayner is the real deal. A single mum at 16

    Rayner has a really impressive backstory, having fought through all that to be where she is
    She's also - and this shouldn't matter, but it does - easy on the eye.
    And she knows it, and uses it

    A hint of Thatcher, perhaps
    Except Thatcher made it from provincial Lincolnshire to Oxford, a career as a chemist and a tax barrister before becoming an MP.

    Rayner did not even do A Levels nor did she have a career of much note before becoming MP. Yes she had a tough backstory but so did many other people
    She'll be just as impressive as Thatcher if she ends up PM. More so, in fact. The outcome stats for teen, single mothers are horrendous.

    No one cares about your Highers once you have your degree.
    Thatcher was a genuine leader of a permanent member of the UN Security Council and G7 power who could go head to head on equal terms if not more so with the Presidents of the USA, Russia, France, China etc.

    Rayner is just a female John Prescott, nothing more
    Could you ooze a bit more Tory snobbery please.
    What has Rayner achieved in her life, outside clambering the ranks of the Labour Party? Because the latter isn't that impressive if Jeremy bloody Corbyn could do it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 46,148
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    It must surely be a woman, this time

    I'd make Rayner favourite right now (but not a huge fave). She is there, she shows talent, she has confidence, she is different

    Are you advocating a selection policy based solely on identity?
    lol, Yeah

    After this succession of inept posh or posh-ish Tories, Cameron, May, Boris, absolutely why not a working class girl from Brum? She's got a sense of humour, she has a bit of sass. She needs to learn some debating skills, judging by PMQs; she is too genial, she needs to employ ruthlessness, but in desperation I might vote for her, if it came to it
    She’s from very obviously from Greater Manchester, not Birmingham!
    Yes, I apologised earlier

    But that said, who cares. Birmingham, Glasgow, Sunderland, Swindon, Plymouth, they're all up north and they're all toilets, whence it is frankly amazing people emerge vaguely literate
    Gee. Thanks. I staggered out of Birmingham some 35 years ago barely able to say my own name, but somehow have managed to have a career and make my way in the world.
    I've heard of you. The guy that got out of Brum. Well done!
    I'll drink to that.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 6,474
    Ladbrokes are offering 11/8 on NOM.

    A no-brainer? (trading bet, not hold)

    Surely be well under EVS when the May council election results roll in.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,212

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    It must surely be a woman, this time

    I'd make Rayner favourite right now (but not a huge fave). She is there, she shows talent, she has confidence, she is different

    Are you advocating a selection policy based solely on identity?
    lol, Yeah

    After this succession of inept posh or posh-ish Tories, Cameron, May, Boris, absolutely why not a working class girl from Brum? She's got a sense of humour, she has a bit of sass. She needs to learn some debating skills, judging by PMQs; she is too genial, she needs to employ ruthlessness, but in desperation I might vote for her, if it came to it
    She’s from very obviously from Greater Manchester, not Birmingham!
    Yes, I apologised earlier

    But that said, who cares. Birmingham, Glasgow, Sunderland, Swindon, Plymouth, they're all up north and they're all toilets, whence it is frankly amazing people emerge vaguely literate
    Hold on. Weren't your formative years spent in that Northern shithole known to map makers as rural Herefordshire?

    I'm pretty sure you were drinking a toast to a return to your roots in the Marches just before xmas.
    The trouble is, once you move to London, you go native. Anything north of Epping Forest or west of Heathrow is THE NORTH. Portsmouth is also THE NORTH, it being clearly south of Richmond Park.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 6,194
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    It must surely be a woman, this time

    I'd make Rayner favourite right now (but not a huge fave). She is there, she shows talent, she has confidence, she is different

    Are you advocating a selection policy based solely on identity?
    lol, Yeah

    After this succession of inept posh or posh-ish Tories, Cameron, May, Boris, absolutely why not a working class girl from Brum? She's got a sense of humour, she has a bit of sass. She needs to learn some debating skills, judging by PMQs; she is too genial, she needs to employ ruthlessness, but in desperation I might vote for her, if it came to it
    Rayner's not from Brum though. Your confusing he with Jess Philips. Rayner's from Stockport.
    Apols, my bad, yes I am. Philips is the fake WWC girl, Rayner is the real deal. A single mum at 16

    Rayner has a really impressive backstory, having fought through all that to be where she is
    She's also - and this shouldn't matter, but it does - easy on the eye.
    And she knows it, and uses it

    A hint of Thatcher, perhaps
    Except Thatcher made it from provincial Lincolnshire to Oxford, a career as a chemist and a tax barrister before becoming an MP.

    Rayner did not even do A Levels nor did she have a career of much note before becoming MP. Yes she had a tough backstory but so did many other people
    I do sometimes think you are unnecessarily in awe of your 'betters' HYUFD. They really aren't your betters and qualifications aren't everything. You should be and are equal to all of them. Not really an observation from this post but it reminded me of it, but you do seem to be in awe of some that you shouldn't be based upon school and/or Oxbridge.
    He can certainly (and frequently) speak for himself, but HYUFD has strong respect and identification with traditional hierarchies. And when it comes to politics and voting, he is NOT alone.

    On the other hand, plenty others disrespect, dislike or distrust the powers-that-be and are motivated politically & electorally accordingly.

    One great secret of practical politics, is being able to balance and combine these two elements. Reason for much of the success of FDR, Churchill, Thatcher, Reagan, Blair & Obama.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,638
    All England have to do now is bowl Australia out for about 75.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,000
    Aslan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    It must surely be a woman, this time

    I'd make Rayner favourite right now (but not a huge fave). She is there, she shows talent, she has confidence, she is different

    Are you advocating a selection policy based solely on identity?
    lol, Yeah

    After this succession of inept posh or posh-ish Tories, Cameron, May, Boris, absolutely why not a working class girl from Brum? She's got a sense of humour, she has a bit of sass. She needs to learn some debating skills, judging by PMQs; she is too genial, she needs to employ ruthlessness, but in desperation I might vote for her, if it came to it
    Rayner's not from Brum though. Your confusing he with Jess Philips. Rayner's from Stockport.
    Apols, my bad, yes I am. Philips is the fake WWC girl, Rayner is the real deal. A single mum at 16

    Rayner has a really impressive backstory, having fought through all that to be where she is
    She's also - and this shouldn't matter, but it does - easy on the eye.
    And she knows it, and uses it

    A hint of Thatcher, perhaps
    Except Thatcher made it from provincial Lincolnshire to Oxford, a career as a chemist and a tax barrister before becoming an MP.

    Rayner did not even do A Levels nor did she have a career of much note before becoming MP. Yes she had a tough backstory but so did many other people
    She'll be just as impressive as Thatcher if she ends up PM. More so, in fact. The outcome stats for teen, single mothers are horrendous.

    No one cares about your Highers once you have your degree.
    Thatcher was a genuine leader of a permanent member of the UN Security Council and G7 power who could go head to head on equal terms if not more so with the Presidents of the USA, Russia, France, China etc.

    Rayner is just a female John Prescott, nothing more
    Could you ooze a bit more Tory snobbery please.
    What has Rayner achieved in her life, outside clambering the ranks of the Labour Party? Because the latter isn't that impressive if Jeremy bloody Corbyn could do it.
    He honestly wasn't much of a rank clamberer, and showed little interest in attempting to clamber, so it seemed more like a freak consequence of circumstance that he got to the top. Fought just like anyone else to maintain position though.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 4,607
    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    It must surely be a woman, this time

    I'd make Rayner favourite right now (but not a huge fave). She is there, she shows talent, she has confidence, she is different

    Are you advocating a selection policy based solely on identity?
    lol, Yeah

    After this succession of inept posh or posh-ish Tories, Cameron, May, Boris, absolutely why not a working class girl from Brum? She's got a sense of humour, she has a bit of sass. She needs to learn some debating skills, judging by PMQs; she is too genial, she needs to employ ruthlessness, but in desperation I might vote for her, if it came to it
    Rayner's not from Brum though. Your confusing he with Jess Philips. Rayner's from Stockport.
    Apols, my bad, yes I am. Philips is the fake WWC girl, Rayner is the real deal. A single mum at 16

    Rayner has a really impressive backstory, having fought through all that to be where she is
    It’s a very fair point that she is an absolutely gold plated self-made woman but that in and of itself doesn’t make her PM material.
    I think she's more qualified than an old Etonian with a 1st in PPE.

    The equivalent for someone from that background would be astronaut, self made billionaire or something
    What about an OE with a 2nd in classics?

    More seriously, very few people are up to the job, and that's about a lot of things that are hard to predict and measure.

    But apply the "Imagine X is Prime Minister. Do you sleep soundly?" test. On the government benches, Boris fails that test. Sunak passes, so does Hunt; Javid, Truss and Gove maybe... that's about it, I think.
    For Labour, Starmer would send you to sleep, but that sleep would be peaceful. Nandy and Reeves might pass it, I don't know them well enough. I don't think Rayner does, and I don't see that changing.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,638
    edited January 7

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    It must surely be a woman, this time

    I'd make Rayner favourite right now (but not a huge fave). She is there, she shows talent, she has confidence, she is different

    Are you advocating a selection policy based solely on identity?
    lol, Yeah

    After this succession of inept posh or posh-ish Tories, Cameron, May, Boris, absolutely why not a working class girl from Brum? She's got a sense of humour, she has a bit of sass. She needs to learn some debating skills, judging by PMQs; she is too genial, she needs to employ ruthlessness, but in desperation I might vote for her, if it came to it
    She’s from very obviously from Greater Manchester, not Birmingham!
    Yes, I apologised earlier

    But that said, who cares. Birmingham, Glasgow, Sunderland, Swindon, Plymouth, they're all up north and they're all toilets, whence it is frankly amazing people emerge vaguely literate
    Gee. Thanks. I staggered out of Birmingham some 35 years ago barely able to say my own name, but somehow have managed to have a career and make my way in the world.
    Isn't Swindon actually south of London? Just checked — it's a tiny bit north.

    London: 51.5072 degrees north
    Swindon: 51.5558 degrees north
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,076
    edited January 7

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    It must surely be a woman, this time

    I'd make Rayner favourite right now (but not a huge fave). She is there, she shows talent, she has confidence, she is different

    Are you advocating a selection policy based solely on identity?
    lol, Yeah

    After this succession of inept posh or posh-ish Tories, Cameron, May, Boris, absolutely why not a working class girl from Brum? She's got a sense of humour, she has a bit of sass. She needs to learn some debating skills, judging by PMQs; she is too genial, she needs to employ ruthlessness, but in desperation I might vote for her, if it came to it
    Rayner's not from Brum though. Your confusing he with Jess Philips. Rayner's from Stockport.
    Apols, my bad, yes I am. Philips is the fake WWC girl, Rayner is the real deal. A single mum at 16

    Rayner has a really impressive backstory, having fought through all that to be where she is
    She's also - and this shouldn't matter, but it does - easy on the eye.
    And she knows it, and uses it

    A hint of Thatcher, perhaps
    Except Thatcher made it from provincial Lincolnshire to Oxford, a career as a chemist and a tax barrister before becoming an MP.

    Rayner did not even do A Levels nor did she have a career of much note before becoming MP. Yes she had a tough backstory but so did many other people
    I do sometimes think you are unnecessarily in awe of your 'betters' HYUFD. They really aren't your betters and qualifications aren't everything. You should be and are equal to all of them. Not really an observation from this post but it reminded me of it, but you do seem to be in awe of some that you shouldn't be based upon school and/or Oxbridge.
    He can certainly (and frequently) speak for himself, but HYUFD has strong respect and identification with traditional hierarchies. And when it comes to politics and voting, he is NOT alone.

    On the other hand, plenty others disrespect, dislike or distrust the powers-that-be and are motivated politically & electorally accordingly.

    One great secret of practical politics, is being able to balance and combine these two elements. Reason for much of the success of FDR, Churchill, Thatcher, Reagan, Blair & Obama.
    May I add Harold Wilson to that list? Oxford's youngest ever Don who managed to be homespun Harold from Huddersfield. He wasn't even called Harold.
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