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Is everything alright Prime Minister? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited January 5 in General
Is everything alright Prime Minister? – politicalbetting.com

As heard on my @timesradio show this morning…Boris Johnson took 4 minutes to answer a question from David at the press conference.46 er seconds er of er it er was er this… pic.twitter.com/wzQJu5A02d

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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 21,175
    First.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 7,713
    Really, what is the point of posting this crap?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,467
    From The Times: "In 1982 matters came to a head when Ammaturo left the decapitated body of the psychiatrist who had helped him to escape jail, but who had since done favours for Cutolo, near the latter’s headquarters."

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/pupetta-maresca-obituary-bmprw69mc
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,327
    Yesterday I posted it was likely to be the last day in a while under 800 mechnical ventilation patients, but am pleasantly surprised they went down today and are back close to an all winter low.

    London admissions down week on week again and total beds occupied barely rising now (up 2% day on day rather than consistent 10% growth a week or 2 back). Given incidentals still likely to be rising with current case levels much higher than 28 days ago, possible that 'for covid' beds in London have already peaked.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,136
    Four protesters have been found not guilty of causing criminal damage after toppling of the statue of slave trader Edward Colston in Bristol during a Black Lives Matter protest.

    A jury at Bristol Crown Court cleared Rhian Graham, 30, Jake Skuse, 33, Sage Willoughby, 22 and Milo Ponsford, 26, of charges, following a trial that lasted two weeks.

    https://news.sky.com/story/edward-colston-statue-four-protesters-found-not-guilty-of-criminal-damage-after-toppling-monument-of-slave-trader-12509488
  • RogerRoger Posts: 15,223
    Surely you're not suggesting he paid for the suit himself?

    Isn't that what Tory Peers are for?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,212
    @Malmesbury FPT

    I still find those graphs hard to interpret, but instinctively your London charts look quite promising to my amateur eye?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,263
    AlistairM said:

    Case and death numbers have a lot of backfill. By actual dates it doesn't look too bad.

    Yes, and tomorrow will have a lot of backfill for NYD holiday testing being delayed until after the bank holiday. It actually won't be until this time next week before we see a true representation of what the situation looks like.

    The ONS data didn't seem bad today, lots of infections of course, putting those number back onto non-incidental hospitalisation numbers will probably show a very low IHR.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,136

    Four protesters have been found not guilty of causing criminal damage after toppling of the statue of slave trader Edward Colston in Bristol during a Black Lives Matter protest.

    A jury at Bristol Crown Court cleared Rhian Graham, 30, Jake Skuse, 33, Sage Willoughby, 22 and Milo Ponsford, 26, of charges, following a trial that lasted two weeks.

    https://news.sky.com/story/edward-colston-statue-four-protesters-found-not-guilty-of-criminal-damage-after-toppling-monument-of-slave-trader-12509488

    Proper working class names there.
    Wouldn't expect anything different.
  • He's a scruff who hates people who work hard, particularly Margaret Thatcher (a proper girly SWOT).

    Is it any surprise he's consistently gets found out for being lazy and unprepared?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,443

    Four protesters have been found not guilty of causing criminal damage after toppling of the statue of slave trader Edward Colston in Bristol during a Black Lives Matter protest.

    A jury at Bristol Crown Court cleared Rhian Graham, 30, Jake Skuse, 33, Sage Willoughby, 22 and Milo Ponsford, 26, of charges, following a trial that lasted two weeks.

    https://news.sky.com/story/edward-colston-statue-four-protesters-found-not-guilty-of-criminal-damage-after-toppling-monument-of-slave-trader-12509488

    Proper working class names there.
    May not be those on their birth certs, of course. And who knows what youth taste is these days?
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 2,435

    Four protesters have been found not guilty of causing criminal damage after toppling of the statue of slave trader Edward Colston in Bristol during a Black Lives Matter protest.

    A jury at Bristol Crown Court cleared Rhian Graham, 30, Jake Skuse, 33, Sage Willoughby, 22 and Milo Ponsford, 26, of charges, following a trial that lasted two weeks.

    https://news.sky.com/story/edward-colston-statue-four-protesters-found-not-guilty-of-criminal-damage-after-toppling-monument-of-slave-trader-12509488

    Proper working class names there.
    Milo Ponsford. Now that is a name you would not want
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,387
    MikeL said:

    When you look at the deaths by date of death graph now, deaths have basically been flat since 27 Nov.

    There was a tiny uptick in first week of Dec followed by an equivalent downtick but overall they've been flat for the last 6 weeks.

    Whereas if you had read threads on here, it was posted numerous times throughout Dec by people supposedly doing all kinds of clever analysis that deaths were falling in Dec.

    As for what happens next, a rise looks likely but we'll have to see.

    The London deaths seven day average has moved up meaningfully - it was running at about 10, it's now running at about 18. Given timelags, there may still be some increases to come.

    But while the increase is significant, the London is 20% of the UK, and it is well ahead of the curve. (It's also winter, and quote a lot more people die in winter anyway.) So those figures are reasonably encouraging. They suggest a wave that will increase death rates, but nowhere near as much as previous waves.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,136
    edited January 5

    Four protesters have been found not guilty of causing criminal damage after toppling of the statue of slave trader Edward Colston in Bristol during a Black Lives Matter protest.

    A jury at Bristol Crown Court cleared Rhian Graham, 30, Jake Skuse, 33, Sage Willoughby, 22 and Milo Ponsford, 26, of charges, following a trial that lasted two weeks.

    https://news.sky.com/story/edward-colston-statue-four-protesters-found-not-guilty-of-criminal-damage-after-toppling-monument-of-slave-trader-12509488

    Proper working class names there.
    Milo Ponsford. Now that is a name you would not want
    Milo Ponsford, 26, took rope to a Black Lives Matter protest in the city in June 2020. He is one of four people charged with illegally removing the monument to the slave trader. He claimed that stopping this "harm" gave him a lawful excuse to remove it.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-bristol-59672257

    So it isn't a matter of could they actually be identified as the culprits i.e that perhaps the plod got the wrong man. This sends a rather worrying message.

    There is something rather wrong when pissy man hands himself in the next day, apologises for being drunk knobhead, but goes to jail....and these people are innocent because the "harm" of a statue means its ok.
  • Four protesters have been found not guilty of causing criminal damage after toppling of the statue of slave trader Edward Colston in Bristol during a Black Lives Matter protest.

    A jury at Bristol Crown Court cleared Rhian Graham, 30, Jake Skuse, 33, Sage Willoughby, 22 and Milo Ponsford, 26, of charges, following a trial that lasted two weeks.

    https://news.sky.com/story/edward-colston-statue-four-protesters-found-not-guilty-of-criminal-damage-after-toppling-monument-of-slave-trader-12509488

    Proper working class names there.
    Wouldn't expect anything different.
    I'll never forget the time a Crispin (white and landed gentry) told me what proper racism for people of asian heritage was like.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,387
    Chris said:

    Really, what is the point of posting this crap?

    Is that a rhetorical question?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,084
    That is surely a fake - stitched together - audio recording?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 3,107

    From The Times: "In 1982 matters came to a head when Ammaturo left the decapitated body of the psychiatrist who had helped him to escape jail, but who had since done favours for Cutolo, near the latter’s headquarters."

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/pupetta-maresca-obituary-bmprw69mc

    Are we to assume that pun is intentional, from The Times?
  • Chris said:

    Really, what is the point of posting this crap?

    A question many of us ask about your posts.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 18,982
    Anyone else have problems logging in to PB.com on multiple devices? I'm logging on fine from my Mac but just got a new Macbook Air and and old problem has returned...

    After clicking the 'Comment As' button the logon window seems to recognise my username and password (as it should) but the screen reloads with the 'Comment As' button still showing and the whole website strangely squeezed into the comments section.

    Any ideas anyone?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 604
    Chris said:

    Really, what is the point of posting this crap?

    https://www.ikea.com/gb/en/cat/wall-mirrors-24858/
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,408
    That clip is either doctored or Johnson has a serious impairment.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,327
    rcs1000 said:

    MikeL said:

    When you look at the deaths by date of death graph now, deaths have basically been flat since 27 Nov.

    There was a tiny uptick in first week of Dec followed by an equivalent downtick but overall they've been flat for the last 6 weeks.

    Whereas if you had read threads on here, it was posted numerous times throughout Dec by people supposedly doing all kinds of clever analysis that deaths were falling in Dec.

    As for what happens next, a rise looks likely but we'll have to see.

    The London deaths seven day average has moved up meaningfully - it was running at about 10, it's now running at about 18. Given timelags, there may still be some increases to come.

    But while the increase is significant, the London is 20% of the UK, and it is well ahead of the curve. (It's also winter, and quote a lot more people die in winter anyway.) So those figures are reasonably encouraging. They suggest a wave that will increase death rates, but nowhere near as much as previous waves.
    Looks like it was more like 12 or 13 around 10th December (i.e. deaths most definitely due to November delta) so to date a c. 50% increase.

    Indeed encouraging when you'd need 20x that increase to get up to last year.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 8,917
    Chris said:

    Really, what is the point of posting this crap?

    Are you serious? This incoherent cretin holds the most important office in the country. Unfit for office.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 7,713
    Carnyx said:

    Chris said:

    Really, what is the point of posting this crap?

    Because it's the PM coming out with it? Quite worrying.
    You do understand it's just the "ers" edited out of what he said and glued together?

    I think Boris Johnson is a fool and a disaster, but this kind of thing is just an insult to the intelligence.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 46,148
    Could be sleep deprivation. Take it from me, it can really turn you into a zombie.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,327
    kinabalu said:

    That clip is either doctored or Johnson has a serious impairment.

    Same as Biden there. Pair of incompetents.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,830
    IanB2 said:

    That is surely a fake - stitched together - audio recording?

    I think it is a compilation of all the 'errs' in the 4 minute answer. Which is a bit unfair, though that is a lot of erring for 4 minutes.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 7,713
    kinabalu said:

    That clip is either doctored or Johnson has a serious impairment.

    Do people really not understand it's an edited excerpt? Did Mike Smithson not understand that when he posted it? It's so obvious!
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 3,107

    Anyone else have problems logging in to PB.com on multiple devices? I'm logging on fine from my Mac but just got a new Macbook Air and and old problem has returned...

    After clicking the 'Comment As' button the logon window seems to recognise my username and password (as it should) but the screen reloads with the 'Comment As' button still showing and the whole website strangely squeezed into the comments section.

    Any ideas anyone?

    I get that on mobile (Android/Firefox) sometimes. Refreshing the page always fixes it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 92,646

    He's a scruff who hates people who work hard, particularly Margaret Thatcher (a proper girly SWOT).

    Is it any surprise he's consistently gets found out for being lazy and unprepared?

    On the other hand Boris is the only Tory leader ever to win most voters from the lowest DE social class, as he did in 2019 when 41% of DEs voted Tory to 39% who voted Labour.

    Boris being a scruff rather than a stuffed shirt probably helped with them

    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2019-election
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 18,982
    rcs1000 said:

    Chris said:

    Really, what is the point of posting this crap?

    Is that a rhetorical question?
    Channeling his inner Magritte: This is not a post.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,212
    maaarsh said:

    Yesterday I posted it was likely to be the last day in a while under 800 mechnical ventilation patients, but am pleasantly surprised they went down today and are back close to an all winter low.

    London admissions down week on week again and total beds occupied barely rising now (up 2% day on day rather than consistent 10% growth a week or 2 back). Given incidentals still likely to be rising with current case levels much higher than 28 days ago, possible that 'for covid' beds in London have already peaked.

    I know I am like a broken record but the fact that people who are enter hospital for a non-covid reason but then fail a covid test at any point during their stay are classed as a pure-play covid admission is beyond ludicrous.

    Yes, I know, I know! I understand the argument that they provide a healthcare challenge –because under current rules they still have to be put in a covid ward, even if they have mild or no covid symptoms.

    But they are de facto NOT a covid admission under any logical interpretation of the phrase because – by definition – they were not admitted to hospital because they were suffering from covid. A geezer who breaks his leg playing football comes to hospital to get his leg fixed up. He probably cares less about a few sneezes from catching a mild dose of omicron when he can't walk. Yet this same guy is a 'covid admission'.

    The data needs to be separated between those who come through the doors because of covid, and those who arrived for some other reason, who happen to have failed a covid test while on the ward.

    It's going to get worse: the South Africans reported 60% non-Covid 'incidental' infections during their Omicron peak. They were just much, much better at explaining it and publicising the paradox.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 7,713

    Chris said:

    Really, what is the point of posting this crap?

    A question many of us ask about your posts.
    I've heard of blind loyalty, but really are there no limits?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 56,564
    Chris said:

    kinabalu said:

    That clip is either doctored or Johnson has a serious impairment.

    Do people really not understand it's an edited excerpt? Did Mike Smithson not understand that when he posted it? It's so obvious!
    Yeah, the full clip should have been posted, not something edited together.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 8,917

    Boris has always been lazy and a chancer, and had to be carefully managed when it comes to the press, but post COVID you see it time and again, he get confused, he can't remember a question or goes off on a tangent, even when they have been soft ball question that were easy we done well type response.

    Certain weeks its a toss up who is more embarrassingly lost, Joe Biden or Boris Johnson.

    Biden is alert and cogent in comparison.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,084
    Quincel said:

    IanB2 said:

    That is surely a fake - stitched together - audio recording?

    I think it is a compilation of all the 'errs' in the 4 minute answer. Which is a bit unfair, though that is a lot of erring for 4 minutes.
    I will be first in the queue when it comes to highlighting the PM's innumerable inadequacies - but it is poor of this site to lead off using such a doctored recording giving the impression it is a recording of his answering a single question.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,212
    MaxPB said:

    AlistairM said:

    Case and death numbers have a lot of backfill. By actual dates it doesn't look too bad.

    Yes, and tomorrow will have a lot of backfill for NYD holiday testing being delayed until after the bank holiday. It actually won't be until this time next week before we see a true representation of what the situation looks like.

    The ONS data didn't seem bad today, lots of infections of course, putting those number back onto non-incidental hospitalisation numbers will probably show a very low IHR.
    I was trying to amateurishly crunch the IHR and CFR from the numbers we have the other day. I am not good enough to be precise enough for PB. But suffice to say the very rough numbers I ended up with looked very low. Very low indeed.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,408
    Chris said:

    kinabalu said:

    That clip is either doctored or Johnson has a serious impairment.

    Do people really not understand it's an edited excerpt? Did Mike Smithson not understand that when he posted it? It's so obvious!
    Glad to have that confirmed - I'd have been lumping on a "tomorrow" exit otherwise!
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,817
    Chris said:

    kinabalu said:

    That clip is either doctored or Johnson has a serious impairment.

    Do people really not understand it's an edited excerpt? Did Mike Smithson not understand that when he posted it? It's so obvious!
    People see and hear what they want to.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,212
    kinabalu said:

    That clip is either doctored or Johnson has a serious impairment.

    Must say, I assumed it was doctored when I listened to it.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,589
    IanB2 said:

    Quincel said:

    IanB2 said:

    That is surely a fake - stitched together - audio recording?

    I think it is a compilation of all the 'errs' in the 4 minute answer. Which is a bit unfair, though that is a lot of erring for 4 minutes.
    I will be first in the queue when it comes to highlighting the PM's innumerable inadequacies - but it is poor of this site to lead off using such a doctored recording giving the impression it is a recording of his answering a single question.
    To be fair I guess that OGH was taken in rather than seeking to mislead.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 7,713
    kinabalu said:

    Chris said:

    kinabalu said:

    That clip is either doctored or Johnson has a serious impairment.

    Do people really not understand it's an edited excerpt? Did Mike Smithson not understand that when he posted it? It's so obvious!
    Glad to have that confirmed - I'd have been lumping on a "tomorrow" exit otherwise!
    I don't know any more than you, but I have the evidence of my own ears!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,084
    Stocky said:

    IanB2 said:

    Quincel said:

    IanB2 said:

    That is surely a fake - stitched together - audio recording?

    I think it is a compilation of all the 'errs' in the 4 minute answer. Which is a bit unfair, though that is a lot of erring for 4 minutes.
    I will be first in the queue when it comes to highlighting the PM's innumerable inadequacies - but it is poor of this site to lead off using such a doctored recording giving the impression it is a recording of his answering a single question.
    To be fair I guess that OGH was taken in rather than seeking to mislead.
    If he was, then listeners may be (if not any of us regulars), and it should be taken down.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 18,982
    Selebian said:

    Anyone else have problems logging in to PB.com on multiple devices? I'm logging on fine from my Mac but just got a new Macbook Air and and old problem has returned...

    After clicking the 'Comment As' button the logon window seems to recognise my username and password (as it should) but the screen reloads with the 'Comment As' button still showing and the whole website strangely squeezed into the comments section.

    Any ideas anyone?

    I get that on mobile (Android/Firefox) sometimes. Refreshing the page always fixes it.
    Thanks for the suggestion - tried it and yes it takes the 'website in the comments section' away but leaves me still not logged in.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 8,917
    HYUFD said:

    He's a scruff who hates people who work hard, particularly Margaret Thatcher (a proper girly SWOT).

    Is it any surprise he's consistently gets found out for being lazy and unprepared?

    On the other hand Boris is the only Tory leader ever to win most voters from the lowest DE social class, as he did in 2019 when 41% of DEs voted Tory to 39% who voted Labour.

    Boris being a scruff rather than a stuffed shirt probably helped with them

    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2019-election
    Is his electoral performance (against Jeremy Corbyn) always your last redoubt? Will you be the last person to realise he is unfit for office? Even he realises it. Even the Downing Street cat would make a better job of it.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 3,107

    Four protesters have been found not guilty of causing criminal damage after toppling of the statue of slave trader Edward Colston in Bristol during a Black Lives Matter protest.

    A jury at Bristol Crown Court cleared Rhian Graham, 30, Jake Skuse, 33, Sage Willoughby, 22 and Milo Ponsford, 26, of charges, following a trial that lasted two weeks.

    https://news.sky.com/story/edward-colston-statue-four-protesters-found-not-guilty-of-criminal-damage-after-toppling-monument-of-slave-trader-12509488

    Proper working class names there.
    Of course. Commenting on her motivations, Rhian Graham stated "well, I was just sat on the settee in me nana's lounge after dinner, wiping me hands on a serviette after a trip to the toilet when I heard that Coulson who has the statue was a slave trader and I was like 'pardon?' and that was it"
  • ChrisChris Posts: 7,713
    Stocky said:

    IanB2 said:

    Quincel said:

    IanB2 said:

    That is surely a fake - stitched together - audio recording?

    I think it is a compilation of all the 'errs' in the 4 minute answer. Which is a bit unfair, though that is a lot of erring for 4 minutes.
    I will be first in the queue when it comes to highlighting the PM's innumerable inadequacies - but it is poor of this site to lead off using such a doctored recording giving the impression it is a recording of his answering a single question.
    To be fair I guess that OGH was taken in rather than seeking to mislead.
    Well the tweet does make it pretty clear that it was only 46 seconds out of 4 minutes.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,589
    edited January 5
    At least the Speccie is on the ball:

    https://data.spectator.co.uk/category/sage-scenarios
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,136
    edited January 5
    Is this what passes for Times journalism these days? Or Comedy?

    Patchy
    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1478746478474584067?s=20

    A Labour source gets in touch to point out it is sixth time isolating, second time positive. No word on body donation
    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1478683175014518784?s=20
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 99,293
    edited January 5
    Carnyx said:

    Four protesters have been found not guilty of causing criminal damage after toppling of the statue of slave trader Edward Colston in Bristol during a Black Lives Matter protest.

    A jury at Bristol Crown Court cleared Rhian Graham, 30, Jake Skuse, 33, Sage Willoughby, 22 and Milo Ponsford, 26, of charges, following a trial that lasted two weeks.

    https://news.sky.com/story/edward-colston-statue-four-protesters-found-not-guilty-of-criminal-damage-after-toppling-monument-of-slave-trader-12509488

    Proper working class names there.
    May not be those on their birth certs, of course. And who knows what youth taste is these days?
    As the joke goes, having a double barrelled surname used to be a sign of nobility/high status now it means your mum's a slag.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,467
    Selebian said:

    From The Times: "In 1982 matters came to a head when Ammaturo left the decapitated body of the psychiatrist who had helped him to escape jail, but who had since done favours for Cutolo, near the latter’s headquarters."

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/pupetta-maresca-obituary-bmprw69mc

    Are we to assume that pun is intentional, from The Times?
    Your guess is as good as mine!
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,212
    Selebian said:

    Four protesters have been found not guilty of causing criminal damage after toppling of the statue of slave trader Edward Colston in Bristol during a Black Lives Matter protest.

    A jury at Bristol Crown Court cleared Rhian Graham, 30, Jake Skuse, 33, Sage Willoughby, 22 and Milo Ponsford, 26, of charges, following a trial that lasted two weeks.

    https://news.sky.com/story/edward-colston-statue-four-protesters-found-not-guilty-of-criminal-damage-after-toppling-monument-of-slave-trader-12509488

    Proper working class names there.
    Of course. Commenting on her motivations, Rhian Graham stated "well, I was just sat on the settee in me nana's lounge after dinner, wiping me hands on a serviette after a trip to the toilet when I heard that Coulson who has the statue was a slave trader and I was like 'pardon?' and that was it"
    :D
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,823
    HYUFD said:

    He's a scruff who hates people who work hard, particularly Margaret Thatcher (a proper girly SWOT).

    Is it any surprise he's consistently gets found out for being lazy and unprepared?

    On the other hand Boris is the only Tory leader ever to win most voters from the lowest DE social class, as he did in 2019 when 41% of DEs voted Tory to 39% who voted Labour.

    Boris being a scruff rather than a stuffed shirt probably helped with them

    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2019-election
    I forget, did you post supportively when people nagged Corbyn about not doing up his top button?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 2,945
    Derry & Strabane!

    Published case rate of 4133.4 cases per 100k by sample date and guaranteed to increase to at least 4796.4 in the next 2 days.

    Nearly 5% of the population testing positive in a week. Highest recently in London just topped 3% in Lambeth.
  • Pro_Rata said:

    Derry & Strabane!

    Published case rate of 4133.4 cases per 100k by sample date and guaranteed to increase to at least 4796.4 in the next 2 days.

    Nearly 5% of the population testing positive in a week. Highest recently in London just topped 3% in Lambeth.

    Reporting SNAFU?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,212
    Stocky said:

    At least the Speccie is on the ball:

    https://data.spectator.co.uk/category/sage-scenarios

    Yes, it's superb. Unlike Sage forecasters.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,015
    Chris said:

    Stocky said:

    IanB2 said:

    Quincel said:

    IanB2 said:

    That is surely a fake - stitched together - audio recording?

    I think it is a compilation of all the 'errs' in the 4 minute answer. Which is a bit unfair, though that is a lot of erring for 4 minutes.
    I will be first in the queue when it comes to highlighting the PM's innumerable inadequacies - but it is poor of this site to lead off using such a doctored recording giving the impression it is a recording of his answering a single question.
    To be fair I guess that OGH was taken in rather than seeking to mislead.
    Well the tweet does make it pretty clear that it was only 46 seconds out of 4 minutes.
    Only ?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 8,917
    Stocky said:

    At least the Speccie is on the ball:

    https://data.spectator.co.uk/category/sage-scenarios

    That is very interesting. The Sages seem to be not very Sage like. Essentially it would seem that based on that data you need to take their least pessimistic forecast and then knock a bit more off to get the real world scenario.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,327
    England cases barely up week on week despite catch-up. Given the slight lag from infection to recorded case, and London seeming to peak around the 25th, reasonable to think England may be at it's overall peak right about now.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,212

    Anyone else have problems logging in to PB.com on multiple devices? I'm logging on fine from my Mac but just got a new Macbook Air and and old problem has returned...

    After clicking the 'Comment As' button the logon window seems to recognise my username and password (as it should) but the screen reloads with the 'Comment As' button still showing and the whole website strangely squeezed into the comments section.

    Any ideas anyone?

    Log in via vanilla – works every time there on the Mac (I have the same problem as you on the official site – which I no longer use).
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 21,801

    @Malmesbury FPT

    I still find those graphs hard to interpret, but instinctively your London charts look quite promising to my amateur eye?

    Cases are going down. 18-64 Admissions are definitely heading down, the others are showing some signs... Deaths are going up (delayed reporting for the last few days of data etc).
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 2,945

    Pro_Rata said:

    Derry & Strabane!

    Published case rate of 4133.4 cases per 100k by sample date and guaranteed to increase to at least 4796.4 in the next 2 days.

    Nearly 5% of the population testing positive in a week. Highest recently in London just topped 3% in Lambeth.

    Reporting SNAFU?
    The specimen date data look to be bending round in a pretty natural way. There is a post Xmas effect in when people got tested, but it looks fairly real to me.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 4,607

    HYUFD said:

    He's a scruff who hates people who work hard, particularly Margaret Thatcher (a proper girly SWOT).

    Is it any surprise he's consistently gets found out for being lazy and unprepared?

    On the other hand Boris is the only Tory leader ever to win most voters from the lowest DE social class, as he did in 2019 when 41% of DEs voted Tory to 39% who voted Labour.

    Boris being a scruff rather than a stuffed shirt probably helped with them

    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2019-election
    Is his electoral performance (against Jeremy Corbyn) always your last redoubt? Will you be the last person to realise he is unfit for office? Even he realises it. Even the Downing Street cat would make a better job of it.
    There's some truth in it though.

    BoJo's image does help him to connect with people in a way that TM and Dave (and Howard, IDS and Hague) didn't. It's an electoral strength. And it's worth noting that, even now, dumping BoJo might well cause Conservative ratings to fall. I suspect that it's a strategy to cut losses in 2024, rather than to win five more glorious years.

    However, having a populist image is pretty much orthogonal to being any good at the job of running the country.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,327

    Stocky said:

    At least the Speccie is on the ball:

    https://data.spectator.co.uk/category/sage-scenarios

    That is very interesting. The Sages seem to be not very Sage like. Essentially it would seem that based on that data you need to take their least pessimistic forecast and then knock a bit more off to get the real world scenario.
    By 'knock a bit off' you typically mean divide by an integer between 2 and 10.
  • Pro_Rata said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Derry & Strabane!

    Published case rate of 4133.4 cases per 100k by sample date and guaranteed to increase to at least 4796.4 in the next 2 days.

    Nearly 5% of the population testing positive in a week. Highest recently in London just topped 3% in Lambeth.

    Reporting SNAFU?
    The specimen date data look to be bending round in a pretty natural way. There is a post Xmas effect in when people got tested, but it looks fairly real to me.
    Astonishing.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,015
    Stocky said:

    IanB2 said:

    Quincel said:

    IanB2 said:

    That is surely a fake - stitched together - audio recording?

    I think it is a compilation of all the 'errs' in the 4 minute answer. Which is a bit unfair, though that is a lot of erring for 4 minutes.
    I will be first in the queue when it comes to highlighting the PM's innumerable inadequacies - but it is poor of this site to lead off using such a doctored recording giving the impression it is a recording of his answering a single question.
    To be fair I guess that OGH was taken in rather than seeking to mislead.
    "...for a time he was barely coherent..." doesn't suggest that.

    Had he been taken in, then "completely and utterly out to lunch" would have been more appropriate.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 1,680

    Selebian said:

    Four protesters have been found not guilty of causing criminal damage after toppling of the statue of slave trader Edward Colston in Bristol during a Black Lives Matter protest.

    A jury at Bristol Crown Court cleared Rhian Graham, 30, Jake Skuse, 33, Sage Willoughby, 22 and Milo Ponsford, 26, of charges, following a trial that lasted two weeks.

    https://news.sky.com/story/edward-colston-statue-four-protesters-found-not-guilty-of-criminal-damage-after-toppling-monument-of-slave-trader-12509488

    Proper working class names there.
    Of course. Commenting on her motivations, Rhian Graham stated "well, I was just sat on the settee in me nana's lounge after dinner, wiping me hands on a serviette after a trip to the toilet when I heard that Coulson who has the statue was a slave trader and I was like 'pardon?' and that was it"
    :D
    How do you get acquitted of criminal damage when you damaged criminally a statue that doesn't belong to you?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,446
    Catching up on PMQs. Drooling aside, AR does show SKS up as the living dead. She isn't using very different material - it could be his script - but you can imagine SKS's mumbling monotone delivering it
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,589

    Stocky said:

    At least the Speccie is on the ball:

    https://data.spectator.co.uk/category/sage-scenarios

    Yes, it's superb. Unlike Sage forecasters.
    Look at the hospitalisations actual vs the Warwick Model.

    I'm sticking to my prediction posted here early December in response to Leon's flapping:

    "If you look at daily hospitalisations during the 2nd wave in UK, between the end of Oct 20 and Mid Feb 21, hospitalisations topped out at over 4000 per day and were over 1500 p/d for every day of that three and a half month period. The average (mean) was about 2600 over that period.

    Currently we have about 800 p/d because we have the vaccines and boosters.

    Beat me over the head with this post next spring if I'm wrong but I'll be amazed if we get near 2600 as a peak let alone as an average.

    Average between now and Mid Feb? - I'd guess 1200."
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,076
    Djokovic still stuck at airport. He's not getting in is he? State government denying they gave it the OK. Says it's very much a Federal issue. Some questions about visa too.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 7,713
    Nigelb said:

    Chris said:

    Stocky said:

    IanB2 said:

    Quincel said:

    IanB2 said:

    That is surely a fake - stitched together - audio recording?

    I think it is a compilation of all the 'errs' in the 4 minute answer. Which is a bit unfair, though that is a lot of erring for 4 minutes.
    I will be first in the queue when it comes to highlighting the PM's innumerable inadequacies - but it is poor of this site to lead off using such a doctored recording giving the impression it is a recording of his answering a single question.
    To be fair I guess that OGH was taken in rather than seeking to mislead.
    Well the tweet does make it pretty clear that it was only 46 seconds out of 4 minutes.
    Only ?
    The question being whether it was an unedited recording of Johnson's reply, which a number of people seemed to think it was.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 32,790
    Chris said:

    Carnyx said:

    Chris said:

    Really, what is the point of posting this crap?

    Because it's the PM coming out with it? Quite worrying.
    You do understand it's just the "ers" edited out of what he said and glued together?

    I think Boris Johnson is a fool and a disaster, but this kind of thing is just an insult to the intelligence.
    A SENSIBLE, NON-BONKERS @Chris POST.

    Welcome to the dark side.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 13,477
    HYUFD said:

    He's a scruff who hates people who work hard, particularly Margaret Thatcher (a proper girly SWOT).

    Is it any surprise he's consistently gets found out for being lazy and unprepared?

    On the other hand Boris is the only Tory leader ever to win most voters from the lowest DE social class, as he did in 2019 when 41% of DEs voted Tory to 39% who voted Labour.

    Boris being a scruff rather than a stuffed shirt probably helped with them

    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2019-election
    Are you not underestimating what to he term DEs? Surely the great unwashed are more sophisticated than you give them credit for. I for one quite like to he well groomed, James Bond-esque Johnson. A Statesman-like PM with gravitas is far more rewarding than a music hall clown.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 21,801

    MaxPB said:

    AlistairM said:

    Case and death numbers have a lot of backfill. By actual dates it doesn't look too bad.

    Yes, and tomorrow will have a lot of backfill for NYD holiday testing being delayed until after the bank holiday. It actually won't be until this time next week before we see a true representation of what the situation looks like.

    The ONS data didn't seem bad today, lots of infections of course, putting those number back onto non-incidental hospitalisation numbers will probably show a very low IHR.
    I was trying to amateurishly crunch the IHR and CFR from the numbers we have the other day. I am not good enough to be precise enough for PB. But suffice to say the very rough numbers I ended up with looked very low. Very low indeed.
    Well, cases have been soaring, but deaths are pretty flat, so far.....

    image

    So CFR is falling - was playing around with the CFR calculator I built a while back as well.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,212
    edited January 5

    Stocky said:

    At least the Speccie is on the ball:

    https://data.spectator.co.uk/category/sage-scenarios

    That is very interesting. The Sages seem to be not very Sage like. Essentially it would seem that based on that data you need to take their least pessimistic forecast and then knock a bit more off to get the real world scenario.
    I heard some chap on the radio/telly/net the other day saying that we shouldn't call them forecasts. We should instead refer to them as 'possible scenarios' instead.

    Of course, were they not wildly inaccurate, then we'd be told to call them forecasts.

    In any case, I'm not sure what the point of the projections/forecasts/scenarios is.

    You might as well consult the tea leaves in your afternoon cuppa.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,076
    Rhian Graham certainly doesn't sound posh and middle class for one.
    Very Bristol accent.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,212

    @Malmesbury FPT

    I still find those graphs hard to interpret, but instinctively your London charts look quite promising to my amateur eye?

    Cases are going down. 18-64 Admissions are definitely heading down, the others are showing some signs... Deaths are going up (delayed reporting for the last few days of data etc).
    Ah, yes, that was my interpretation – thanks for the reply.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,136
    edited January 5
    One of those found innocent isn't even from sodding Bristol. They came all the way from Southampton. I was so offended on behalf of the people of Bristol having to walk past it, I came 100 miles to rip it down.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 92,646

    HYUFD said:

    He's a scruff who hates people who work hard, particularly Margaret Thatcher (a proper girly SWOT).

    Is it any surprise he's consistently gets found out for being lazy and unprepared?

    On the other hand Boris is the only Tory leader ever to win most voters from the lowest DE social class, as he did in 2019 when 41% of DEs voted Tory to 39% who voted Labour.

    Boris being a scruff rather than a stuffed shirt probably helped with them

    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2019-election
    I forget, did you post supportively when people nagged Corbyn about not doing up his top button?
    Corbyn won DEs against May in 2017 but lost them against Boris in 2019.

    Maybe he should have stuck to keeping it undone to win the DE vote!
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,446

    Selebian said:

    Four protesters have been found not guilty of causing criminal damage after toppling of the statue of slave trader Edward Colston in Bristol during a Black Lives Matter protest.

    A jury at Bristol Crown Court cleared Rhian Graham, 30, Jake Skuse, 33, Sage Willoughby, 22 and Milo Ponsford, 26, of charges, following a trial that lasted two weeks.

    https://news.sky.com/story/edward-colston-statue-four-protesters-found-not-guilty-of-criminal-damage-after-toppling-monument-of-slave-trader-12509488

    Proper working class names there.
    Of course. Commenting on her motivations, Rhian Graham stated "well, I was just sat on the settee in me nana's lounge after dinner, wiping me hands on a serviette after a trip to the toilet when I heard that Coulson who has the statue was a slave trader and I was like 'pardon?' and that was it"
    :D
    How do you get acquitted of criminal damage when you damaged criminally a statue that doesn't belong to you?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bushel's Case
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,589
    dixiedean said:

    Djokovic still stuck at airport. He's not getting in is he? State government denying they gave it the OK. Says it's very much a Federal issue. Some questions about visa too.

    I suppose they could just test the guy?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 21,175
    dixiedean said:

    Djokovic still stuck at airport. He's not getting in is he? State government denying they gave it the OK. Says it's very much a Federal issue. Some questions about visa too.

    Sounds like the set up for a movie, with hilarious consequences.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 8,917
    Nigelb said:

    Chris said:

    Stocky said:

    IanB2 said:

    Quincel said:

    IanB2 said:

    That is surely a fake - stitched together - audio recording?

    I think it is a compilation of all the 'errs' in the 4 minute answer. Which is a bit unfair, though that is a lot of erring for 4 minutes.
    I will be first in the queue when it comes to highlighting the PM's innumerable inadequacies - but it is poor of this site to lead off using such a doctored recording giving the impression it is a recording of his answering a single question.
    To be fair I guess that OGH was taken in rather than seeking to mislead.
    Well the tweet does make it pretty clear that it was only 46 seconds out of 4 minutes.
    Only ?
    An "er" every 5.2 seconds is pretty bad for someone whom his apologists claim is something of an orator (lol)
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,212
    maaarsh said:

    Stocky said:

    At least the Speccie is on the ball:

    https://data.spectator.co.uk/category/sage-scenarios

    That is very interesting. The Sages seem to be not very Sage like. Essentially it would seem that based on that data you need to take their least pessimistic forecast and then knock a bit more off to get the real world scenario.
    By 'knock a bit off' you typically mean divide by an integer between 2 and 10.
    :D
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 5,390

    One of those found innocent isn't even from sodding Bristol. They came all the way from Southampton. I was so offended on behalf of the people of Bristol having to walk past it, I came 100 miles to rip it down.

    I think it is pretty wrong to give the verdict of not guilty - clearly these people were involved. By all means give light sentences, but offences were committed, or can I go where I like and cause damage, just because I deem it affects my life?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 29,467

    Stocky said:

    At least the Speccie is on the ball:

    https://data.spectator.co.uk/category/sage-scenarios

    That is very interesting. The Sages seem to be not very Sage like. Essentially it would seem that based on that data you need to take their least pessimistic forecast and then knock a bit more off to get the real world scenario.
    The Speccie has been rather selective in its choice of data, and rather misleading in its presentation, meaning it can be safely filed under 'garbage'. For example, they somehow omitted to display the chart (bottom left) of England hospitalisations against the LHSTM and other models:

    https://twitter.com/COVID19actuary/status/1478401755369164805
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 5,056

    Selebian said:

    Four protesters have been found not guilty of causing criminal damage after toppling of the statue of slave trader Edward Colston in Bristol during a Black Lives Matter protest.

    A jury at Bristol Crown Court cleared Rhian Graham, 30, Jake Skuse, 33, Sage Willoughby, 22 and Milo Ponsford, 26, of charges, following a trial that lasted two weeks.

    https://news.sky.com/story/edward-colston-statue-four-protesters-found-not-guilty-of-criminal-damage-after-toppling-monument-of-slave-trader-12509488

    Proper working class names there.
    Of course. Commenting on her motivations, Rhian Graham stated "well, I was just sat on the settee in me nana's lounge after dinner, wiping me hands on a serviette after a trip to the toilet when I heard that Coulson who has the statue was a slave trader and I was like 'pardon?' and that was it"
    :D
    How do you get acquitted of criminal damage when you damaged criminally a statue that doesn't belong to you?
    Ask the jury. (Actually you're not allowed to). It's their decision.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,015
    Stocky said:

    dixiedean said:

    Djokovic still stuck at airport. He's not getting in is he? State government denying they gave it the OK. Says it's very much a Federal issue. Some questions about visa too.

    I suppose they could just test the guy?
    Two week quarantine and he's all set.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 8,917

    HYUFD said:

    He's a scruff who hates people who work hard, particularly Margaret Thatcher (a proper girly SWOT).

    Is it any surprise he's consistently gets found out for being lazy and unprepared?

    On the other hand Boris is the only Tory leader ever to win most voters from the lowest DE social class, as he did in 2019 when 41% of DEs voted Tory to 39% who voted Labour.

    Boris being a scruff rather than a stuffed shirt probably helped with them

    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2019-election
    Is his electoral performance (against Jeremy Corbyn) always your last redoubt? Will you be the last person to realise he is unfit for office? Even he realises it. Even the Downing Street cat would make a better job of it.
    There's some truth in it though.

    BoJo's image does help him to connect with people in a way that TM and Dave (and Howard, IDS and Hague) didn't. It's an electoral strength. And it's worth noting that, even now, dumping BoJo might well cause Conservative ratings to fall. I suspect that it's a strategy to cut losses in 2024, rather than to win five more glorious years.

    However, having a populist image is pretty much orthogonal to being any good at the job of running the country.
    Indeed, you can't do one (run the country) without the other (win the election). But to do the latter and be shockingly bad at the former is worse than not winning in the first place.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,446
    @Tissue_Price giving SKS a kicking
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,136
    edited January 5
    dixiedean said:

    Rhian Graham certainly doesn't sound posh and middle class for one.
    Very Bristol accent.

    From what I can see she works in the arts darling. Artist liaison at nice middle class festivals and stage managing at theatres.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 5,390

    Stocky said:

    At least the Speccie is on the ball:

    https://data.spectator.co.uk/category/sage-scenarios

    That is very interesting. The Sages seem to be not very Sage like. Essentially it would seem that based on that data you need to take their least pessimistic forecast and then knock a bit more off to get the real world scenario.
    The Speccie has been rather selective in its choice of data, and rather misleading in its presentation, meaning it can be safely filed under 'garbage'. For example, they somehow omitted to display the chart (bottom left) of England hospitalisations against the LHSTM and other models:

    https://twitter.com/COVID19actuary/status/1478401755369164805
    How many of those are for covid though (not incidental)? And is that included in the modelling?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,212

    Four protesters have been found not guilty of causing criminal damage after toppling of the statue of slave trader Edward Colston in Bristol during a Black Lives Matter protest.

    A jury at Bristol Crown Court cleared Rhian Graham, 30, Jake Skuse, 33, Sage Willoughby, 22 and Milo Ponsford, 26, of charges, following a trial that lasted two weeks.

    https://news.sky.com/story/edward-colston-statue-four-protesters-found-not-guilty-of-criminal-damage-after-toppling-monument-of-slave-trader-12509488

    Classic example of jury nullification – the jury knows the defendants are guilty under the letter of the law, but acquits anyway. I suspect in this case, the youth of the defendants and the fact they are likely to make a good contribution to society (without a criminal record) was at play. But it is an interesting case and debate for sure.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,053
    Check Matt Chorley's Twitter thread for details of the recording. This was from one answer to one question.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 15,223
    Chris said:

    Really, what is the point of posting this crap?

    Should

    Four protesters have been found not guilty of causing criminal damage after toppling of the statue of slave trader Edward Colston in Bristol during a Black Lives Matter protest.

    A jury at Bristol Crown Court cleared Rhian Graham, 30, Jake Skuse, 33, Sage Willoughby, 22 and Milo Ponsford, 26, of charges, following a trial that lasted two weeks.

    https://news.sky.com/story/edward-colston-statue-four-protesters-found-not-guilty-of-criminal-damage-after-toppling-monument-of-slave-trader-12509488

    Back to the good old days when Juries make moral judgements rather than just following the judges direction. Long live the Randle and Pottles of this world.
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