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Is everything alright Prime Minister? – politicalbetting.com
Is everything alright Prime Minister? – politicalbetting.com
As heard on my @timesradio show this morning…Boris Johnson took 4 minutes to answer a question from David at the press conference.46 er seconds er of er it er was er this… pic.twitter.com/wzQJu5A02d
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Certain weeks its a toss up who is more embarrassingly lost, Joe Biden or Boris Johnson.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/pupetta-maresca-obituary-bmprw69mc
London admissions down week on week again and total beds occupied barely rising now (up 2% day on day rather than consistent 10% growth a week or 2 back). Given incidentals still likely to be rising with current case levels much higher than 28 days ago, possible that 'for covid' beds in London have already peaked.
A jury at Bristol Crown Court cleared Rhian Graham, 30, Jake Skuse, 33, Sage Willoughby, 22 and Milo Ponsford, 26, of charges, following a trial that lasted two weeks.
https://news.sky.com/story/edward-colston-statue-four-protesters-found-not-guilty-of-criminal-damage-after-toppling-monument-of-slave-trader-12509488
Isn't that what Tory Peers are for?
I still find those graphs hard to interpret, but instinctively your London charts look quite promising to my amateur eye?
The ONS data didn't seem bad today, lots of infections of course, putting those number back onto non-incidental hospitalisation numbers will probably show a very low IHR.
Is it any surprise he's consistently gets found out for being lazy and unprepared?
But while the increase is significant, the London is 20% of the UK, and it is well ahead of the curve. (It's also winter, and quote a lot more people die in winter anyway.) So those figures are reasonably encouraging. They suggest a wave that will increase death rates, but nowhere near as much as previous waves.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-bristol-59672257
So it isn't a matter of could they actually be identified as the culprits i.e that perhaps the plod got the wrong man. This sends a rather worrying message.
There is something rather wrong when pissy man hands himself in the next day, apologises for being drunk knobhead, but goes to jail....and these people are innocent because the "harm" of a statue means its ok.
After clicking the 'Comment As' button the logon window seems to recognise my username and password (as it should) but the screen reloads with the 'Comment As' button still showing and the whole website strangely squeezed into the comments section.
Any ideas anyone?
Indeed encouraging when you'd need 20x that increase to get up to last year.
I think Boris Johnson is a fool and a disaster, but this kind of thing is just an insult to the intelligence.
Boris being a scruff rather than a stuffed shirt probably helped with them
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2019-election
Yes, I know, I know! I understand the argument that they provide a healthcare challenge –because under current rules they still have to be put in a covid ward, even if they have mild or no covid symptoms.
But they are de facto NOT a covid admission under any logical interpretation of the phrase because – by definition – they were not admitted to hospital because they were suffering from covid. A geezer who breaks his leg playing football comes to hospital to get his leg fixed up. He probably cares less about a few sneezes from catching a mild dose of omicron when he can't walk. Yet this same guy is a 'covid admission'.
The data needs to be separated between those who come through the doors because of covid, and those who arrived for some other reason, who happen to have failed a covid test while on the ward.
It's going to get worse: the South Africans reported 60%
non-Covid'incidental' infections during their Omicron peak. They were just much, much better at explaining it and publicising the paradox.https://data.spectator.co.uk/category/sage-scenarios
Patchy
https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1478746478474584067?s=20
A Labour source gets in touch to point out it is sixth time isolating, second time positive. No word on body donation
https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1478683175014518784?s=20
Published case rate of 4133.4 cases per 100k by sample date and guaranteed to increase to at least 4796.4 in the next 2 days.
Nearly 5% of the population testing positive in a week. Highest recently in London just topped 3% in Lambeth.
BoJo's image does help him to connect with people in a way that TM and Dave (and Howard, IDS and Hague) didn't. It's an electoral strength. And it's worth noting that, even now, dumping BoJo might well cause Conservative ratings to fall. I suspect that it's a strategy to cut losses in 2024, rather than to win five more glorious years.
However, having a populist image is pretty much orthogonal to being any good at the job of running the country.
Had he been taken in, then "completely and utterly out to lunch" would have been more appropriate.
I'm sticking to my prediction posted here early December in response to Leon's flapping:
"If you look at daily hospitalisations during the 2nd wave in UK, between the end of Oct 20 and Mid Feb 21, hospitalisations topped out at over 4000 per day and were over 1500 p/d for every day of that three and a half month period. The average (mean) was about 2600 over that period.
Currently we have about 800 p/d because we have the vaccines and boosters.
Beat me over the head with this post next spring if I'm wrong but I'll be amazed if we get near 2600 as a peak let alone as an average.
Average between now and Mid Feb? - I'd guess 1200."
Welcome to the dark side.
So CFR is falling - was playing around with the CFR calculator I built a while back as well.
Of course, were they not wildly inaccurate, then we'd be told to call them forecasts.
In any case, I'm not sure what the point of the projections/forecasts/scenarios is.
You might as well consult the tea leaves in your afternoon cuppa.
Very Bristol accent.
Maybe he should have stuck to keeping it undone to win the DE vote!
https://twitter.com/COVID19actuary/status/1478401755369164805