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Should we expect crossover in the next CON leader betting? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited January 23 in General
imageShould we expect crossover in the next CON leader betting? – politicalbetting.com

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  • Won't somebody think of the plants...

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1475316274011987971?t=hXV-9eYfmdbV0-KwkaPkBw&s=19

    Its has the vibes of Wuhan 2020 again.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,831

    Won't somebody think of the plants...

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1475316274011987971?t=hXV-9eYfmdbV0-KwkaPkBw&s=19

    Its has the vibes of Wuhan 2020 again.

    Is there any evidence this has much effect? I mean, given what we now know about Covid?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021
    Quincel said:

    Won't somebody think of the plants...

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1475316274011987971?t=hXV-9eYfmdbV0-KwkaPkBw&s=19

    Its has the vibes of Wuhan 2020 again.

    Is there any evidence this has much effect? I mean, given what we now know about Covid?
    No....all the evidence is primarily transmission vector is person to person via airborne, especially where little to no ventilation. I can't see how spraying disinfectant wildly into the air will do anything, when everybody is locked inside their homes.
  • Some new polling with @PeterKellner1 in the @guardian
    measuring the impact of different party leaders on voting intention.

    Unprompted – Con 32 Lab 39
    Johnson as leader - Con 29 Lab 41
    Sunak as leader - Con 34 Lab 37
    Truss as leader - Con 27 Lab 43
    Gove as leader – Con 23 Lab 41



    https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1475560303781978112
  • Some new polling with @PeterKellner1 in the @guardian
    measuring the impact of different party leaders on voting intention.

    Unprompted – Con 32 Lab 39
    Johnson as leader - Con 29 Lab 41
    Sunak as leader - Con 34 Lab 37
    Truss as leader - Con 27 Lab 43
    Gove as leader – Con 23 Lab 41



    https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1475560303781978112

    Sort of interesting, under Sunak the Tories only go up two points but Labour also drops two points, presumably to other parties or don't know?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    Given tonight's Yougov had the Tories trailing Starmer Labour by 16% under a Truss leadership and heading for a 1997 or 2001 style landslide defeat of just 162 seats it would be political suicide to replace Boris with her. For the same poll has the Tories under Boris only trailing Labour by 7%.

    Sunak gets closer to Labour, just 3% behind but on today's ConservativeHome survey getting rid of Boris may end up with Truss as leader not Sunak.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/dec/27/boris-johnson-a-drag-on-tories-and-sunak-would-do-better-poll-shows?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    Boris can then use the above to play off rivals against each other while hoping for a poll bounce from no new restrictions
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321
    Truss and Gove poll worse than the clown, shocker.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 9,651


    No....all the evidence is primarily transmission vector is person to person via airborne, especially where little to no ventilation. I can't see how spraying disinfectant wildly into the air will do anything, when everybody is locked inside their homes.

    Come on, we all enjoy a bit of outdoor fumigation - almost de rigueur in some parts of London.

    In rural areas, a quick foray into the sheep dip will suffice...
  • HYUFD said:

    Given tonight's Yougov had the Tories trailing Starmer Labour by 16% under a Truss leadership and heading for a 1997 or 2001 style landslide defeat of just 162 seats it would be political suicide to replace Boris with her. For the same poll has the Tories under Boris only trailing Labour by 7%.

    Sunak gets closer to Labour, just 3% behind but on today's ConservativeHome survey getting rid of Boris may end up with Truss as leader not Sunak.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/dec/27/boris-johnson-a-drag-on-tories-and-sunak-would-do-better-poll-shows?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    Boris can then use the above to play off rivals against each other while hoping for a poll bounce from no new restrictions

    Opinium, not YouGov.
  • Truss? Really?

    :D:D:D
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 1,617

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    Only just discovered the Glasgow vs Edinburgh rugby match is off due to Sturgeon.

    Bugger

    Corrected
    No, I think it was the 17 cases of Covid in the Edinburgh squad including the head coach that did it.
    If only Sturgeon had hummed & hawed in best BJ stylee in the run up to Christmas, everything would have been fine.
    We don't know which set of politicians, if any, has got this right yet. And the scientists have no idea either.

    Quincel said:

    Won't somebody think of the plants...

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1475316274011987971?t=hXV-9eYfmdbV0-KwkaPkBw&s=19

    Its has the vibes of Wuhan 2020 again.

    Is there any evidence this has much effect? I mean, given what we now know about Covid?
    No....all the evidence is primarily transmission vector is person to person via airborne, especially where little to no ventilation. I can't see how spraying disinfectant wildly into the air will do anything, when everybody is locked inside their homes.
    OTOH the local party apparatchiks must be completely desperate. If Chairman Xi remains displeased with them by the end of the week, they have a twenty-five year long holiday at a forced labour camp in a remote part of Inner Mongolia to look forward to.
  • pigeon said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    Only just discovered the Glasgow vs Edinburgh rugby match is off due to Sturgeon.

    Bugger

    Corrected
    No, I think it was the 17 cases of Covid in the Edinburgh squad including the head coach that did it.
    If only Sturgeon had hummed & hawed in best BJ stylee in the run up to Christmas, everything would have been fine.
    We don't know which set of politicians, if any, has got this right yet. And the scientists have no idea either.

    Quincel said:

    Won't somebody think of the plants...

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1475316274011987971?t=hXV-9eYfmdbV0-KwkaPkBw&s=19

    Its has the vibes of Wuhan 2020 again.

    Is there any evidence this has much effect? I mean, given what we now know about Covid?
    No....all the evidence is primarily transmission vector is person to person via airborne, especially where little to no ventilation. I can't see how spraying disinfectant wildly into the air will do anything, when everybody is locked inside their homes.
    OTOH the local party apparatchiks must be completely desperate. If Chairman Xi remains displeased with them by the end of the week, they have a twenty-five year long holiday at a forced labour camp in a remote part of Inner Mongolia to look forward to.
    The new AI will determine their punishment....

    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3160997/chinese-scientists-develop-ai-prosecutor-can-press-its-own
  • stodgestodge Posts: 9,651
    HYUFD said:

    Given tonight's Yougov had the Tories trailing Starmer Labour by 16% under a Truss leadership and heading for a 1997 or 2001 style landslide defeat of just 162 seats it would be political suicide to replace Boris with her. For the same poll has the Tories under Boris only trailing Labour by 7%.

    Sunak gets closer to Labour, just 3% behind but on today's ConservativeHome survey getting rid of Boris may end up with Truss as leader not Sunak.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/dec/27/boris-johnson-a-drag-on-tories-and-sunak-would-do-better-poll-shows?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    Boris can then use the above to play off rivals against each other while hoping for a poll bounce from no new restrictions

    Would you not agree Truss doesn't have a high public profile - to be fair, John Major didn't in 1990 either? Once she has some media exposure, isn't it likely her ratings would improve to match or even exceed Sunak's?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,552
    I would be happy to sell both Liz and Rishi here. I think there is no more than a 30-35% chance of one of them being the next Conservative Party leader - not least because I don't expect an imminent vacancy.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,150

    How's NHS doing at moment in relation to omicron and other pressures? New thread based on latest data. Note that we prefer to use numbers of covid-19 patients in hospital, rather than new admissions, as two days more up to date and better represents whole picture...1/19

    — Chris Hopson (@ChrisCEOHopson) December 27, 2021
    https://twitter.com/ChrisCEOHopson/status/1475540046677790723

    I think this guy has always been worth listening to for a considered view. Impressed about how little he seeks to input himself directly into the political arguments about restrictions, and whether they are necessary etc. Obviously it is his job partly to send warnings about the extent to which the NHS is stretched, and the impact this has on quality of care, but he also genuinely seems to take an approach as much as possible of dealing the hand that he is given, and not always appealing elsewhere for solutions.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 13,757

    Some new polling with @PeterKellner1 in the @guardian
    measuring the impact of different party leaders on voting intention.

    Unprompted – Con 32 Lab 39
    Johnson as leader - Con 29 Lab 41
    Sunak as leader - Con 34 Lab 37
    Truss as leader - Con 27 Lab 43
    Gove as leader – Con 23 Lab 41



    https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1475560303781978112

    Why did I lol at Gove at just 23%? TBF despite everything how is Johnson still above any of them?
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 1,330
    Quincel said:

    Won't somebody think of the plants...

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1475316274011987971?t=hXV-9eYfmdbV0-KwkaPkBw&s=19

    Its has the vibes of Wuhan 2020 again.

    Is there any evidence this has much effect? I mean, given what we now know about Covid?
    They must be worried. Low immunity due to their zero covid strategy and dodgy vaccines.
  • Another Important public health message! As well as knowing about cold like symptoms- always swab both your throat as well as your nose if you want an accurate #LFT ! We are lucky in U.K. to have them - so let’s use wisely

    https://twitter.com/timspector/status/1475558104142127110?t=MXOFPIsH08eyLfesUdS2zw&s=19
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281

    Quincel said:

    Won't somebody think of the plants...

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1475316274011987971?t=hXV-9eYfmdbV0-KwkaPkBw&s=19

    Its has the vibes of Wuhan 2020 again.

    Is there any evidence this has much effect? I mean, given what we now know about Covid?
    No....all the evidence is primarily transmission vector is person to person via airborne, especially where little to no ventilation. I can't see how spraying disinfectant wildly into the air will do anything, when everybody is locked inside their homes.
    On which point.
    Has anyone else noticed what a remarkable number of people appear preternaturally terrified of "draughts"?
    It doesn't even have to be cold. Just moving air.
    Wherever did this idea come from?
  • rcs1000 said:

    I would be happy to sell both Liz and Rishi here. I think there is no more than a 30-35% chance of one of them being the next Conservative Party leader - not least because I don't expect an imminent vacancy.

    Sunak's ratings are going to be in the toilet by next May, that cost of living crisis is going to damage him a lot.
  • Some important caveats...
    1) People are really bad at working out how they might respond to changes like this
    2) We don't know what other impacts a new leader might have (divide/unite the party, change policy direction etc.)
    3) Some of these leaders (i.e. Truss) not well known
    ..

    So, given that, what can we learn from this.

    Firstly, Johnson is almost certainly a drag on the Tory Party at this stage. The fact that the Tory vote share drops when we mention his name in the question really isn't great news...

    Secondly, questions like this normally lead to a drop in vote share - so the fact that Sunak manages to noticeably increase the Tory vote share is significant.

    he is still significantly overperforming his party.


    Thirdly, Gove *really* isn't a popular politician with the public (and unlike Truss, he is already pretty well known).

    The fact that he is dragging the party's support down by that much is significant.


    https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1475561005820297226?s=20
  • Quincel said:

    Won't somebody think of the plants...

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1475316274011987971?t=hXV-9eYfmdbV0-KwkaPkBw&s=19

    Its has the vibes of Wuhan 2020 again.

    Is there any evidence this has much effect? I mean, given what we now know about Covid?
    It depends what you're trying to achieve surely?

    If you're trying to ensure a lockdown then spraying poison in the air would ensure I didn't leave the house!

    Even placebos can have an impact given the right circumstances.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 1,656

    Some important caveats...
    1) People are really bad at working out how they might respond to changes like this
    2) We don't know what other impacts a new leader might have (divide/unite the party, change policy direction etc.)
    3) Some of these leaders (i.e. Truss) not well known
    ..

    So, given that, what can we learn from this.

    Firstly, Johnson is almost certainly a drag on the Tory Party at this stage. The fact that the Tory vote share drops when we mention his name in the question really isn't great news...

    Secondly, questions like this normally lead to a drop in vote share - so the fact that Sunak manages to noticeably increase the Tory vote share is significant.

    he is still significantly overperforming his party.


    Thirdly, Gove *really* isn't a popular politician with the public (and unlike Truss, he is already pretty well known).

    The fact that he is dragging the party's support down by that much is significant.


    https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1475561005820297226?s=20

    And as Gove is my MP, I can testify he is absolutely useless.

    Sunak is the only sensible choice if the Tories want half a chance at the next election.
  • HYUFD said:

    Given tonight's Yougov had the Tories trailing Starmer Labour by 16% under a Truss leadership and heading for a 1997 or 2001 style landslide defeat of just 162 seats it would be political suicide to replace Boris with her. For the same poll has the Tories under Boris only trailing Labour by 7%.

    Sunak gets closer to Labour, just 3% behind but on today's ConservativeHome survey getting rid of Boris may end up with Truss as leader not Sunak.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/dec/27/boris-johnson-a-drag-on-tories-and-sunak-would-do-better-poll-shows?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    Boris can then use the above to play off rivals against each other while hoping for a poll bounce from no new restrictions

    There isn't going to be any such bounce. Your boi is damaged beyond repair
  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,911
    FPT:
    glw said:

    The Royal parasites should fund their own yacht, we shouldn't spend this money on the country's largest benefit scroungers, but use the money to look after our children.

    England could fit an air purifier to every classroom for half the price of the new royal yacht, a move which scientists and campaigners say would significantly reduce the spread of Covid in schools.

    The move would cost about £140m, according to calculations by the Liberal Democrats. Government sources have said there will be no delay to the start of the school term, despite surging Omicron cases, and that any additional restrictions will not include classroom closures.


    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2021/dec/27/covid-air-filters-for-all-classrooms-in-england-would-cost-half-of-royal-yacht

    I broadly agree with the idea, but last year a US expert put a much higher figure* proportionally on doing the same thing for schools in the US. And he also concluded it wasn't really feasible as the supply simply didn't exist to do the job at that time. Look at the bottom of the article, New York City alone is distributing 100,000 HEPA purifiers. It is probably a good idea, and certainly better than many other measures that have been taken, but good air filtration fitted to schools will take quite a bit of time and almost certainly a lot more than £140 million.

    * I don't remember exactly what it was but it was many billions of dollars to fit and supply all US classrooms.
    I think we are being subjected to Lib Dem Maths in search of a headline.

    1 - I have not seen Munira Wilson publish any numbers.
    2 - The LDs suggest £140m for 600k classrooms in the UK (for 10.5m school students approx), or £230 per classroom.
    3 - The Irish Taoiseach suggested that it would cost £75m to do Ireland, or £1500 per classroom.
    https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40761129.html
    4 - Though there were other voices suggesting £200 per classroom.
    https://www.thesun.ie/news/7929852/covid-19-ireland-government-schools-collapse/

    A normal classroom is a little under 200 cubic metres, and has around 30 people in it for 6-7 hours a day.
    Can anyone come up with a public building enclosed space grade HEPA air purifier, and deliver, certify (PAT test etc), and fit it for £230?

    If not, I'm inclined to call bullshit on this.
  • rcs1000 said:

    I would be happy to sell both Liz and Rishi here. I think there is no more than a 30-35% chance of one of them being the next Conservative Party leader - not least because I don't expect an imminent vacancy.

    Sunak's ratings are going to be in the toilet by next May, that cost of living crisis is going to damage him a lot.
    He will blame Boris. And reverse just enough of the measures to boost his honeymoon.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,150

    Another Important public health message! As well as knowing about cold like symptoms- always swab both your throat as well as your nose if you want an accurate #LFT ! We are lucky in U.K. to have them - so let’s use wisely

    https://twitter.com/timspector/status/1475558104142127110?t=MXOFPIsH08eyLfesUdS2zw&s=19

    Incredibly irresponsible post. Even if he is correct.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 5,572
    edited December 2021
    alex_ said:



    I think this guy has always been worth listening to for a considered view. Impressed about how little he seeks to input himself directly into the political arguments about restrictions, and whether they are necessary etc. Obviously it is his job partly to send warnings about the extent to which the NHS is stretched, and the impact this has on quality of care, but he also genuinely seems to take an approach as much as possible of dealing the hand that he is given, and not always appealing elsewhere for solutions.

    Interesting thread, thanks for linking. He is saying exactly what I and some others have predicted. Lots of admissions are asymptomatic for Covid, and are there for other reasons. Also Covid patients not needing ventilation or even oxygen.
    Oddly, just like SA...

    I think this information is one of the reasons for no change for new year...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    alex_ said:

    Another Important public health message! As well as knowing about cold like symptoms- always swab both your throat as well as your nose if you want an accurate #LFT ! We are lucky in U.K. to have them - so let’s use wisely

    https://twitter.com/timspector/status/1475558104142127110?t=MXOFPIsH08eyLfesUdS2zw&s=19

    Incredibly irresponsible post. Even if he is correct.
    The swabs in the nasal only test aren't even long enough for that.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,031

    Truss? Really?

    :D:D:D

    I'm on Truss as next PM at 66/1 with William Hill so I have mixed feelings about this.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021
    France going to mandatory WFH 3 days a week.... otherwise known as full time WFH in France.

    They have also banned people from eating on long-distance trains....but i presume drinking and smoking is still allowed.

    Seems up there with Drakeford ban on oven glove sales in terms of actually making a difference to covid spread.
  • Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given tonight's Yougov had the Tories trailing Starmer Labour by 16% under a Truss leadership and heading for a 1997 or 2001 style landslide defeat of just 162 seats it would be political suicide to replace Boris with her. For the same poll has the Tories under Boris only trailing Labour by 7%.

    Sunak gets closer to Labour, just 3% behind but on today's ConservativeHome survey getting rid of Boris may end up with Truss as leader not Sunak.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/dec/27/boris-johnson-a-drag-on-tories-and-sunak-would-do-better-poll-shows?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    Boris can then use the above to play off rivals against each other while hoping for a poll bounce from no new restrictions

    Can anyone think of anything more worthless than hypothetical mid-term general election polling at Christmas during an epidemic?

    I think it ticks just about all the boxes.
    What do the Scottish subsamples say?
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,150

    France going to mandatory WFH 3 days a week.... otherwise known as full time WFH in France.

    They have also banned people from eating on long-distance trains....but i presume drinking and smoking is still allowed.

    Lol.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,552
    edited December 2021
    MattW said:

    FPT:

    glw said:

    The Royal parasites should fund their own yacht, we shouldn't spend this money on the country's largest benefit scroungers, but use the money to look after our children.

    England could fit an air purifier to every classroom for half the price of the new royal yacht, a move which scientists and campaigners say would significantly reduce the spread of Covid in schools.

    The move would cost about £140m, according to calculations by the Liberal Democrats. Government sources have said there will be no delay to the start of the school term, despite surging Omicron cases, and that any additional restrictions will not include classroom closures.


    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2021/dec/27/covid-air-filters-for-all-classrooms-in-england-would-cost-half-of-royal-yacht

    I broadly agree with the idea, but last year a US expert put a much higher figure* proportionally on doing the same thing for schools in the US. And he also concluded it wasn't really feasible as the supply simply didn't exist to do the job at that time. Look at the bottom of the article, New York City alone is distributing 100,000 HEPA purifiers. It is probably a good idea, and certainly better than many other measures that have been taken, but good air filtration fitted to schools will take quite a bit of time and almost certainly a lot more than £140 million.

    * I don't remember exactly what it was but it was many billions of dollars to fit and supply all US classrooms.
    I think we are being subjected to Lib Dem Maths in search of a headline.

    1 - I have not seen Munira Wilson publish any numbers.
    2 - The LDs suggest £140m for 600k classrooms in the UK (for 10.5m school students approx), or £230 per classroom.
    3 - The Irish Taoiseach suggested that it would cost £75m to do Ireland, or £1500 per classroom.
    https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40761129.html
    4 - Though there were other voices suggesting £200 per classroom.
    https://www.thesun.ie/news/7929852/covid-19-ireland-government-schools-collapse/

    A normal classroom is a little under 200 cubic metres, and has around 30 people in it for 6-7 hours a day.
    Can anyone come up with a public building enclosed space grade HEPA air purifier, and deliver, certify (PAT test etc), and fit it for £230?

    If not, I'm inclined to call bullshit on this.
    The pricing is not completely ridiculous.

    You can get a freestanding HEPA filter capable of scrubbing a 3-400 square foot room for around $400, which is about £250. There is no need to pay for installation, as it sits in the corner, whirrs away, and cleans the air.

    However, the filters themselves need very regular changing. So, the cost is not just one-off.
  • Quincel said:

    Won't somebody think of the plants...

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1475316274011987971?t=hXV-9eYfmdbV0-KwkaPkBw&s=19

    Its has the vibes of Wuhan 2020 again.

    Is there any evidence this has much effect? I mean, given what we now know about Covid?
    It depends what you're trying to achieve surely?

    If you're trying to ensure a lockdown then spraying poison in the air would ensure I didn't leave the house!

    Even placebos can have an impact given the right circumstances.
    Yeah, there is that. Depending on how much the average resident of Xian knows about Covid, it might also be reassuring in a "look, the government is doing something to help us" kind of way.

    There was some SARS transmission within Hong Kong apartment blocks, I hazily seem to recall, so that might be a more serious problem they would need to address.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985

    France going to mandatory WFH 3 days a week.... otherwise known as full time WFH in France.

    They have also banned people from eating on long-distance trains....but i presume drinking and smoking is still allowed.

    Surely three days a week is an increase?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321
    dixiedean said:

    Quincel said:

    Won't somebody think of the plants...

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1475316274011987971?t=hXV-9eYfmdbV0-KwkaPkBw&s=19

    Its has the vibes of Wuhan 2020 again.

    Is there any evidence this has much effect? I mean, given what we now know about Covid?
    No....all the evidence is primarily transmission vector is person to person via airborne, especially where little to no ventilation. I can't see how spraying disinfectant wildly into the air will do anything, when everybody is locked inside their homes.
    On which point.
    Has anyone else noticed what a remarkable number of people appear preternaturally terrified of "draughts"?
    It doesn't even have to be cold. Just moving air.
    Wherever did this idea come from?
    Italians are positively terrified of the evil of draughts. Despite most of theirs being warm.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,150
    IanB2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Quincel said:

    Won't somebody think of the plants...

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1475316274011987971?t=hXV-9eYfmdbV0-KwkaPkBw&s=19

    Its has the vibes of Wuhan 2020 again.

    Is there any evidence this has much effect? I mean, given what we now know about Covid?
    No....all the evidence is primarily transmission vector is person to person via airborne, especially where little to no ventilation. I can't see how spraying disinfectant wildly into the air will do anything, when everybody is locked inside their homes.
    On which point.
    Has anyone else noticed what a remarkable number of people appear preternaturally terrified of "draughts"?
    It doesn't even have to be cold. Just moving air.
    Wherever did this idea come from?
    Italians are positively terrified of the evil of draughts. Despite most of theirs being warm.
    Chess for me.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,150

    France going to mandatory WFH 3 days a week.... otherwise known as full time WFH in France.

    They have also banned people from eating on long-distance trains....but i presume drinking and smoking is still allowed.

    Seems up there with Drakeford ban on oven glove sales in terms of actually making a difference to covid spread.

    I would presume that the latter is targeted at the "mask exemption".
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 1,617
    Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given tonight's Yougov had the Tories trailing Starmer Labour by 16% under a Truss leadership and heading for a 1997 or 2001 style landslide defeat of just 162 seats it would be political suicide to replace Boris with her. For the same poll has the Tories under Boris only trailing Labour by 7%.

    Sunak gets closer to Labour, just 3% behind but on today's ConservativeHome survey getting rid of Boris may end up with Truss as leader not Sunak.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/dec/27/boris-johnson-a-drag-on-tories-and-sunak-would-do-better-poll-shows?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    Boris can then use the above to play off rivals against each other while hoping for a poll bounce from no new restrictions

    Can anyone think of anything more worthless than hypothetical mid-term general election polling at Christmas during an epidemic?

    I think it ticks just about all the boxes.
    Edited for brevity.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,552

    France going to mandatory WFH 3 days a week.... otherwise known as full time WFH in France.

    They have also banned people from eating on long-distance trains....but i presume drinking and smoking is still allowed compulsory.

    Seems up there with Drakeford ban on oven glove sales in terms of actually making a difference to covid spread.

    FTFY
  • rcs1000 said:

    I would be happy to sell both Liz and Rishi here. I think there is no more than a 30-35% chance of one of them being the next Conservative Party leader - not least because I don't expect an imminent vacancy.

    Sunak's ratings are going to be in the toilet by next May, that cost of living crisis is going to damage him a lot.
    He will blame Boris. And reverse just enough of the measures to boost his honeymoon.
    But he can't really reverse any of the unpopular stuff, because he's a true believer in Fiscal Dryness. The key thing is that the Sunak bounce is so small- Major's bounce in 1990 was about 8 points, and took the Conservatives into the lead in the polls. Sunak is adding about 2 points to Conservative ratings and leaving them behind. That's not enough for it to be worth dumping BoJo.

    And to be honest, that's how it should be. There are times when it's appropriate to change Prime Ministers mid-term. But a PM ought to be for a full term, not just for Christmas. Even if they do leave unpleasant messages on the carpet.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    edited December 2021
    Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given tonight's Yougov had the Tories trailing Starmer Labour by 16% under a Truss leadership and heading for a 1997 or 2001 style landslide defeat of just 162 seats it would be political suicide to replace Boris with her. For the same poll has the Tories under Boris only trailing Labour by 7%.

    Sunak gets closer to Labour, just 3% behind but on today's ConservativeHome survey getting rid of Boris may end up with Truss as leader not Sunak.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/dec/27/boris-johnson-a-drag-on-tories-and-sunak-would-do-better-poll-shows?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    Boris can then use the above to play off rivals against each other while hoping for a poll bounce from no new restrictions

    Can anyone think of anything more worthless than hypothetical mid-term general election polling at Christmas during an epidemic?

    I think it ticks just about all the boxes.
    Hypothetical polling showing Major and Heseltine beating Kinnock in 1990 while Maggie trailed was crucial to her going. Hypothetical polling showing Boris beating Corbyn in 2019 unlike May was crucial to him replacing May.

    Hypothetical polling showing no alternative Tory leader beating Blair saved Major in 1995 and hypothetical polling showing no alternative Labour leader beating Cameron saved Brown in 2010. Therefore this polling could be crucial for Boris' survival
  • Barnesian said:

    Truss? Really?

    :D:D:D

    I'm on Truss as next PM at 66/1 with William Hill so I have mixed feelings about this.
    You are making a bet that the Conservatives are brain-dead enough to believe that Truss is an improvement on Boris. Surely that is very different from believing that Ms Truss is the saviour of Britain, Conservatism and Brexit?
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 1,617

    France going to mandatory WFH 3 days a week.... otherwise known as full time WFH in France.

    They have also banned people from eating on long-distance trains....but i presume drinking and smoking is still allowed.

    Seems up there with Drakeford ban on oven glove sales in terms of actually making a difference to covid spread.

    Classic something-must-be-done-ism - which, to be fair, is what we've also been practicing in the UK. I think that most of us would probably concur that, even if we assume that attempting to suppress Omicron is a good idea, nothing much short of Draconian limits on social interaction is going to stand any real chance of being effective in so doing.

    Johnson and Macron both, for different reasons, have concerns about the continuation of their political careers at the moment, so erring on the side of caution and trusting in the vaccines makes sense for them. They're not going for lockdown or lockdown-lite unless the virus situation becomes obviously, irrefutably desperate.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,911
    edited December 2021
    rcs1000 said:

    MattW said:

    FPT:

    glw said:

    The Royal parasites should fund their own yacht, we shouldn't spend this money on the country's largest benefit scroungers, but use the money to look after our children.

    England could fit an air purifier to every classroom for half the price of the new royal yacht, a move which scientists and campaigners say would significantly reduce the spread of Covid in schools.

    The move would cost about £140m, according to calculations by the Liberal Democrats. Government sources have said there will be no delay to the start of the school term, despite surging Omicron cases, and that any additional restrictions will not include classroom closures.


    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2021/dec/27/covid-air-filters-for-all-classrooms-in-england-would-cost-half-of-royal-yacht

    I broadly agree with the idea, but last year a US expert put a much higher figure* proportionally on doing the same thing for schools in the US. And he also concluded it wasn't really feasible as the supply simply didn't exist to do the job at that time. Look at the bottom of the article, New York City alone is distributing 100,000 HEPA purifiers. It is probably a good idea, and certainly better than many other measures that have been taken, but good air filtration fitted to schools will take quite a bit of time and almost certainly a lot more than £140 million.

    * I don't remember exactly what it was but it was many billions of dollars to fit and supply all US classrooms.
    I think we are being subjected to Lib Dem Maths in search of a headline.

    1 - I have not seen Munira Wilson publish any numbers.
    2 - The LDs suggest £140m for 600k classrooms in the UK (for 10.5m school students approx), or £230 per classroom.
    3 - The Irish Taoiseach suggested that it would cost £75m to do Ireland, or £1500 per classroom.
    https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40761129.html
    4 - Though there were other voices suggesting £200 per classroom.
    https://www.thesun.ie/news/7929852/covid-19-ireland-government-schools-collapse/

    A normal classroom is a little under 200 cubic metres, and has around 30 people in it for 6-7 hours a day.
    Can anyone come up with a public building enclosed space grade HEPA air purifier, and deliver, certify (PAT test etc), and fit it for £230?

    If not, I'm inclined to call bullshit on this.
    The pricing is not completely ridiculous.

    You can get a freestanding HEPA filter capable of scrubbing a 3-400 square foot room for around $400, which is about £250. There is no need to pay for installation, as it sits in the corner, whirrs away, and cleans the air.

    However, the filters themselves need very regular changing. So, the cost is not just one-off.
    2 questions there:

    1 - Is that public building with heavy occupation spec? I run heavy duty dehumidifiers, and there is a hell of a difference between a domestic one from B&Q, and something that can deal with a serious application.
    2 - A normal classroom is approx double that area in the UK, and usually has a higher ceiling than a normal room, too.

  • darkagedarkage Posts: 1,330
    alex_ said:

    Another Important public health message! As well as knowing about cold like symptoms- always swab both your throat as well as your nose if you want an accurate #LFT ! We are lucky in U.K. to have them - so let’s use wisely

    https://twitter.com/timspector/status/1475558104142127110?t=MXOFPIsH08eyLfesUdS2zw&s=19

    Incredibly irresponsible post. Even if he is correct.

    Can you imagine looking for covid by continuously retaking LFT tests until you get a positive result, and in doing so disregarding the actual instructions and 'following advice on twitter' instead? And then boasting about it on Twitter. And this from a UCL professor. Wow.

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,858
    Why do Conhomers prefer The Truss over Rishi Rich?

    Hypothesis #1 - She gives some of them the horn.

    Hypothesis #2 - Some of them are a bit racist/suffer from subconscious bias.

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,858
    On Covid, Bozo and The Saj are taking a calculated risk. If hospitals get swamped in January they'll look like a pair of foolhardy chancers. On this occasion I wish them well and hope they are making the right call.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    edited December 2021

    Why do Conhomers prefer The Truss over Rishi Rich?

    Hypothesis #1 - She gives some of them the horn.

    Hypothesis #2 - Some of them are a bit racist/suffer from subconscious bias.

    Or #3. Sunak has a record of spending money. They think Truss will cut their taxes and be nasty to the undeserving (ie, anyone who isn't them).
    As well as 1 and 2.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,869
    edited December 2021
    dixiedean said:

    Quincel said:

    Won't somebody think of the plants...

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1475316274011987971?t=hXV-9eYfmdbV0-KwkaPkBw&s=19

    Its has the vibes of Wuhan 2020 again.

    Is there any evidence this has much effect? I mean, given what we now know about Covid?
    No....all the evidence is primarily transmission vector is person to person via airborne, especially where little to no ventilation. I can't see how spraying disinfectant wildly into the air will do anything, when everybody is locked inside their homes.
    On which point.
    Has anyone else noticed what a remarkable number of people appear preternaturally terrified of "draughts"?
    It doesn't even have to be cold. Just moving air.
    Wherever did this idea come from?
    I bought a CO2 monitor in order to assess the ventilation in our various work areas. The Level drops quite noticeably even when doors to internal corridors are open. Better still with an external window open.
  • pigeon said:

    France going to mandatory WFH 3 days a week.... otherwise known as full time WFH in France.

    They have also banned people from eating on long-distance trains....but i presume drinking and smoking is still allowed.

    Seems up there with Drakeford ban on oven glove sales in terms of actually making a difference to covid spread.

    Classic something-must-be-done-ism - which, to be fair, is what we've also been practicing in the UK. I think that most of us would probably concur that, even if we assume that attempting to suppress Omicron is a good idea, nothing much short of Draconian limits on social interaction is going to stand any real chance of being effective in so doing.

    Johnson and Macron both, for different reasons, have concerns about the continuation of their political careers at the moment, so erring on the side of caution and trusting in the vaccines makes sense for them. They're not going for lockdown or lockdown-lite unless the virus situation becomes obviously, irrefutably desperate.
    The big mistake many European nations made in the summer and autumn, as many of us said at the time, is not taking that time to "learn to live with" the virus.

    The very best thing in the whole pandemic besides the vaccines is the fact we lived for months with consistent 40k daily cases without restrictions.

    That gives us multiple advantages. One is we've got much more people immune already to the whole virus not just the vaccine. The other is that we know we can live with cases.

    Going from 40k daily Delta cases to 100k daily Omicron cases isn't a jump at all for us to worry about if it's 60% less severe. But for those countries that suppressed Delta the jump is far steeper because of both the lack of immunity and relative unpreparedness.
  • Why do Conhomers prefer The Truss over Rishi Rich?

    Hypothesis #1 - She gives some of them the horn.

    Hypothesis #2 - Some of them are a bit racist/suffer from subconscious bias.

    Hypothesis #3 - They hope that all these brilliant Trade Deals she has been doing will save Brexit

    Hypothesis #4 - All of the above
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,843
    dixiedean said:

    Quincel said:

    Won't somebody think of the plants...

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1475316274011987971?t=hXV-9eYfmdbV0-KwkaPkBw&s=19

    Its has the vibes of Wuhan 2020 again.

    Is there any evidence this has much effect? I mean, given what we now know about Covid?
    No....all the evidence is primarily transmission vector is person to person via airborne, especially where little to no ventilation. I can't see how spraying disinfectant wildly into the air will do anything, when everybody is locked inside their homes.
    On which point.
    Has anyone else noticed what a remarkable number of people appear preternaturally terrified of "draughts"?
    It doesn't even have to be cold. Just moving air.
    Wherever did this idea come from?
    I'd say it comes from old Mr Wodehouse in Jane Austen's Emma :)
  • sladeslade Posts: 1,402
    Started to watch Arthur- Legend of the Sword on Channel 5.Gave up after 10 minutes. The sound was appalling, the acting was OTT, there seemed to be an invasion from Lord of the Rings, and the producer was Guy Richie. So back to PB.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,866

    Quincel said:

    Won't somebody think of the plants...

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1475316274011987971?t=hXV-9eYfmdbV0-KwkaPkBw&s=19

    Its has the vibes of Wuhan 2020 again.

    Is there any evidence this has much effect? I mean, given what we now know about Covid?
    No....all the evidence is primarily transmission vector is person to person via airborne, especially where little to no ventilation. I can't see how spraying disinfectant wildly into the air will do anything, when everybody is locked inside their homes.
    The slowness in govs changing their guidance in thr face of new Covid info is infuriating.

    Parts of the UK are still clinging to the droplets-vs-aresol distinction and insisting Covid is spread via droplets.

    It seems inevitable to be that going forward building regs will have to be updated to mandate high quality filtration systems in HVAC installations.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 711
    edited December 2021

    Why do Conhomers prefer The Truss over Rishi Rich?

    Hypothesis #1 - She gives some of them the horn.

    Hypothesis #2 - Some of them are a bit racist/suffer from subconscious bias.

    Hypothesis #3 - They want Maggie back.

    Tories are like Aussies with Don Bradman who always hoped for another Don. Tories are always hoping for another Maggie. This is all the more poignant given what a terrible disappointment Boris Johnson is proving to be. Theresa May wasn't exactly brilliant either.

    Your #2 may have a rather better angle on it. I'm not sure tories, like anyone else, particularly warm to the idea of a mega-rich multimillionaire businessman (and wife). Liz Truss' background is more similar to Maggie's and the northern links don't do her any harm either.
  • Why do Conhomers prefer The Truss over Rishi Rich?

    Hypothesis #1 - She gives some of them the horn.

    Hypothesis #2 - Some of them are a bit racist/suffer from subconscious bias.

    Hypothesis 2 should be ruled out considering both Truss and Rishi are both rated above a series of pale white men.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,911
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given tonight's Yougov had the Tories trailing Starmer Labour by 16% under a Truss leadership and heading for a 1997 or 2001 style landslide defeat of just 162 seats it would be political suicide to replace Boris with her. For the same poll has the Tories under Boris only trailing Labour by 7%.

    Sunak gets closer to Labour, just 3% behind but on today's ConservativeHome survey getting rid of Boris may end up with Truss as leader not Sunak.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/dec/27/boris-johnson-a-drag-on-tories-and-sunak-would-do-better-poll-shows?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    Boris can then use the above to play off rivals against each other while hoping for a poll bounce from no new restrictions

    Would you not agree Truss doesn't have a high public profile - to be fair, John Major didn't in 1990 either? Once she has some media exposure, isn't it likely her ratings would improve to match or even exceed Sunak's?
    Is Liz Truss any good at delegating, and finding competent people to delegate to?

    Her current 869 jobs may let us see, if Boris continues dangling on by his fingernails.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 1,415

    France going to mandatory WFH 3 days a week.... otherwise known as full time WFH in France.

    They have also banned people from eating on long-distance trains....but i presume drinking and smoking is still allowed.

    Seems up there with Drakeford ban on oven glove sales in terms of actually making a difference to covid spread.

    Well acording to Wikipedia, smoking on public transport was banned in 1991

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loi_Évin?wprov=sfla1
  • The Tory talent is not exactly brilliant is it? Beyond Sunak they're all poor
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875

    pigeon said:

    France going to mandatory WFH 3 days a week.... otherwise known as full time WFH in France.

    They have also banned people from eating on long-distance trains....but i presume drinking and smoking is still allowed.

    Seems up there with Drakeford ban on oven glove sales in terms of actually making a difference to covid spread.

    Classic something-must-be-done-ism - which, to be fair, is what we've also been practicing in the UK. I think that most of us would probably concur that, even if we assume that attempting to suppress Omicron is a good idea, nothing much short of Draconian limits on social interaction is going to stand any real chance of being effective in so doing.

    Johnson and Macron both, for different reasons, have concerns about the continuation of their political careers at the moment, so erring on the side of caution and trusting in the vaccines makes sense for them. They're not going for lockdown or lockdown-lite unless the virus situation becomes obviously, irrefutably desperate.
    The big mistake many European nations made in the summer and autumn, as many of us said at the time, is not taking that time to "learn to live with" the virus.

    The very best thing in the whole pandemic besides the vaccines is the fact we lived for months with consistent 40k daily cases without restrictions.

    That gives us multiple advantages. One is we've got much more people immune already to the whole virus not just the vaccine. The other is that we know we can live with cases.

    Going from 40k daily Delta cases to 100k daily Omicron cases isn't a jump at all for us to worry about if it's 60% less severe. But for those countries that suppressed Delta the jump is far steeper because of both the lack of immunity and relative unpreparedness.
    The multiple advantages including lots of dead people and folk with long covid.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021
    CatMan said:

    France going to mandatory WFH 3 days a week.... otherwise known as full time WFH in France.

    They have also banned people from eating on long-distance trains....but i presume drinking and smoking is still allowed.

    Seems up there with Drakeford ban on oven glove sales in terms of actually making a difference to covid spread.

    Well acording to Wikipedia, smoking on public transport was banned in 1991

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loi_Évin?wprov=sfla1
    It was obviously a joke.....smoking (and vaping) in modern France is banned in lots of indoor places.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,866

    rcs1000 said:

    I would be happy to sell both Liz and Rishi here. I think there is no more than a 30-35% chance of one of them being the next Conservative Party leader - not least because I don't expect an imminent vacancy.

    Sunak's ratings are going to be in the toilet by next May, that cost of living crisis is going to damage him a lot.
    Despite saying i wasn't touching the market I've went back in and laid Sunak.

    He's chicken, and his decisions will impact people soon trashing his brand.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875

    Why do Conhomers prefer The Truss over Rishi Rich?

    Hypothesis #1 - She gives some of them the horn.

    Hypothesis #2 - Some of them are a bit racist/suffer from subconscious bias.

    Hypothesis 2 should be ruled out considering both Truss and Rishi are both rated above a series of pale white men.
    No, it just reflects how shite the pwm are in this particular instance.
  • Learning to live with the virus is going to look very foolish if we run into issues shortly
  • Learning to live with the virus is going to look very foolish if we run into issues shortly

    Indeed
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,150
    darkage said:

    alex_ said:

    Another Important public health message! As well as knowing about cold like symptoms- always swab both your throat as well as your nose if you want an accurate #LFT ! We are lucky in U.K. to have them - so let’s use wisely

    https://twitter.com/timspector/status/1475558104142127110?t=MXOFPIsH08eyLfesUdS2zw&s=19

    Incredibly irresponsible post. Even if he is correct.

    Can you imagine looking for covid by continuously retaking LFT tests until you get a positive result, and in doing so disregarding the actual instructions and 'following advice on twitter' instead? And then boasting about it on Twitter. And this from a UCL professor. Wow.

    I reckon there are people who have literally taken the opportunity to hoard 100s if not 1000s of these tests and will be obsessively doing them for the rest of their lives (obviously dismissing the "use by" dates as akin to the dates on certain food products that are years in the future and only really there for show).
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,031

    Barnesian said:

    Truss? Really?

    :D:D:D

    I'm on Truss as next PM at 66/1 with William Hill so I have mixed feelings about this.
    You are making a bet that the Conservatives are brain-dead enough to believe that Truss is an improvement on Boris. Surely that is very different from believing that Ms Truss is the saviour of Britain, Conservatism and Brexit?
    Yes the former. It will give me some financial compensation.
  • Learning to live with the virus is going to look very foolish if we run into issues shortly

    Quite the opposite. The better we are capable of living with the virus, the less challenging the next set of issues will be.

    If you can't live with the virus as it is, then the virus+issues is going to be even more challenging for you.

    Not learning to live with it is the only foolish policy.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 27,139
    The best ever Christmas movie is just starting on ITV4.
  • Learning to live with the virus is going to look very foolish if we run into issues shortly

    Quite the opposite. The better we are capable of living with the virus, the less challenging the next set of issues will be.

    If you can't live with the virus as it is, then the virus+issues is going to be even more challenging for you.

    Not learning to live with it is the only foolish policy.
    The problem is that "learning to live with the virus" means forget about it and go back to normal. We need to be careful and ensure we keep immunity high and the population safe, we are not out of the woods yet and the hospital situation is still a potential issue going forward.
  • Learning to live with the virus is going to look very foolish if we run into issues shortly

    Quite the opposite. The better we are capable of living with the virus, the less challenging the next set of issues will be.

    If you can't live with the virus as it is, then the virus+issues is going to be even more challenging for you.

    Not learning to live with it is the only foolish policy.
    The problem is that "learning to live with the virus" means forget about it and go back to normal. We need to be careful and ensure we keep immunity high and the population safe, we are not out of the woods yet and the hospital situation is still a potential issue going forward.
    Keeping immunity high is how we live with the virus. The two aren't contradictory. If immunity wanes, it's time for a booster campaign. Won't be the first, won't be the last.

    What else do you want doing?

    On the other hand those nations that don't know how to live with the virus will face the double whammy of both the virus and whatever the issues are you're bothered about. That's even worse not better.
  • Of course we have yet to debate whether lots of cases are an irrelevance as we are often told they are. I am not so sure
  • Learning to live with the virus is going to look very foolish if we run into issues shortly

    Quite the opposite. The better we are capable of living with the virus, the less challenging the next set of issues will be.

    If you can't live with the virus as it is, then the virus+issues is going to be even more challenging for you.

    Not learning to live with it is the only foolish policy.
    The problem is that "learning to live with the virus" means forget about it and go back to normal. We need to be careful and ensure we keep immunity high and the population safe, we are not out of the woods yet and the hospital situation is still a potential issue going forward.
    Keeping immunity high is how we live with the virus. The two aren't contradictory. If immunity wanes, it's time for a booster campaign. Won't be the first, won't be the last.

    What else do you want doing?

    On the other hand those nations that don't know how to live with the virus will face the double whammy of both the virus and whatever the issues are you're bothered about. That's even worse not better.
    New Zealand seem to be doing okay. Taiwan too
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975

    The Tory talent is not exactly brilliant is it? Beyond Sunak they're all poor

    What is Sunakism?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,866
    The Economist opposed the building of London's sewer system. I believe they thought we should learn to live with typhoid and cholera instead.

    . Suffering and evil are nature’s admonitions””they cannot be got rid of; and the impatient attempts of benevolence to banish them from the world by legislation, before benevolence has learned their object and their end, have always been more productive of evil than good.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975
    felix said:

    dixiedean said:

    Quincel said:

    Won't somebody think of the plants...

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1475316274011987971?t=hXV-9eYfmdbV0-KwkaPkBw&s=19

    Its has the vibes of Wuhan 2020 again.

    Is there any evidence this has much effect? I mean, given what we now know about Covid?
    No....all the evidence is primarily transmission vector is person to person via airborne, especially where little to no ventilation. I can't see how spraying disinfectant wildly into the air will do anything, when everybody is locked inside their homes.
    On which point.
    Has anyone else noticed what a remarkable number of people appear preternaturally terrified of "draughts"?
    It doesn't even have to be cold. Just moving air.
    Wherever did this idea come from?
    I'd say it comes from old Mr Wodehouse in Jane Austen's Emma :)
    Woodhouse
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 1,617
    edited December 2021
    Carnyx said:

    pigeon said:

    France going to mandatory WFH 3 days a week.... otherwise known as full time WFH in France.

    They have also banned people from eating on long-distance trains....but i presume drinking and smoking is still allowed.

    Seems up there with Drakeford ban on oven glove sales in terms of actually making a difference to covid spread.

    Classic something-must-be-done-ism - which, to be fair, is what we've also been practicing in the UK. I think that most of us would probably concur that, even if we assume that attempting to suppress Omicron is a good idea, nothing much short of Draconian limits on social interaction is going to stand any real chance of being effective in so doing.

    Johnson and Macron both, for different reasons, have concerns about the continuation of their political careers at the moment, so erring on the side of caution and trusting in the vaccines makes sense for them. They're not going for lockdown or lockdown-lite unless the virus situation becomes obviously, irrefutably desperate.
    The big mistake many European nations made in the summer and autumn, as many of us said at the time, is not taking that time to "learn to live with" the virus.

    The very best thing in the whole pandemic besides the vaccines is the fact we lived for months with consistent 40k daily cases without restrictions.

    That gives us multiple advantages. One is we've got much more people immune already to the whole virus not just the vaccine. The other is that we know we can live with cases.

    Going from 40k daily Delta cases to 100k daily Omicron cases isn't a jump at all for us to worry about if it's 60% less severe. But for those countries that suppressed Delta the jump is far steeper because of both the lack of immunity and relative unpreparedness.
    The multiple advantages including lots of dead people and folk with long covid.
    OK. How many of the restrictions would you have kept in place continuously since March 2020 - and, given that easing any restrictions arguably means condemning at least a few people who would otherwise have survived to death by Covid, what (if any) Covid corpse count would you have been prepared to tolerate to let some of the rules go?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,858

    Learning to live with the virus is going to look very foolish if we run into issues shortly

    Quite the opposite. The better we are capable of living with the virus, the less challenging the next set of issues will be.

    If you can't live with the virus as it is, then the virus+issues is going to be even more challenging for you.

    Not learning to live with it is the only foolish policy.
    The problem is that "learning to live with the virus" means forget about it and go back to normal. We need to be careful and ensure we keep immunity high and the population safe, we are not out of the woods yet and the hospital situation is still a potential issue going forward.
    I've been happy to live with the virus since 2 weeks after my second jab.

    I have not modified my behaviour due to Omicron, only due to government requirements.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,332
    slade said:

    Started to watch Arthur- Legend of the Sword on Channel 5.Gave up after 10 minutes. The sound was appalling, the acting was OTT, there seemed to be an invasion from Lord of the Rings, and the producer was Guy Richie. So back to PB.

    The Great season 2 is up.
    Huzzah.
  • pigeon said:

    Carnyx said:

    pigeon said:

    France going to mandatory WFH 3 days a week.... otherwise known as full time WFH in France.

    They have also banned people from eating on long-distance trains....but i presume drinking and smoking is still allowed.

    Seems up there with Drakeford ban on oven glove sales in terms of actually making a difference to covid spread.

    Classic something-must-be-done-ism - which, to be fair, is what we've also been practicing in the UK. I think that most of us would probably concur that, even if we assume that attempting to suppress Omicron is a good idea, nothing much short of Draconian limits on social interaction is going to stand any real chance of being effective in so doing.

    Johnson and Macron both, for different reasons, have concerns about the continuation of their political careers at the moment, so erring on the side of caution and trusting in the vaccines makes sense for them. They're not going for lockdown or lockdown-lite unless the virus situation becomes obviously, irrefutably desperate.
    The big mistake many European nations made in the summer and autumn, as many of us said at the time, is not taking that time to "learn to live with" the virus.

    The very best thing in the whole pandemic besides the vaccines is the fact we lived for months with consistent 40k daily cases without restrictions.

    That gives us multiple advantages. One is we've got much more people immune already to the whole virus not just the vaccine. The other is that we know we can live with cases.

    Going from 40k daily Delta cases to 100k daily Omicron cases isn't a jump at all for us to worry about if it's 60% less severe. But for those countries that suppressed Delta the jump is far steeper because of both the lack of immunity and relative unpreparedness.
    The multiple advantages including lots of dead people and folk with long covid.
    OK. How many of the restrictions would you have kept in place continuously since March 2020 - and, given that easing any restrictions arguably means condemning at least a few people who would otherwise have survived to death by Covid, what (if any) Covid corpse count would you have been prepared to tolerate to let some of the rules go?
    I think we should have followed the NZ model and we'd be in a much better spot
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 27,139
    Alistair said:

    The Economist opposed the building of London's sewer system. I believe they thought we should learn to live with typhoid and cholera instead.

    . Suffering and evil are nature’s admonitions””they cannot be got rid of; and the impatient attempts of benevolence to banish them from the world by legislation, before benevolence has learned their object and their end, have always been more productive of evil than good.

    Wow. Do you have a linkie for that please, as I'd like to use it in something.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,975

    Alistair said:

    The Economist opposed the building of London's sewer system. I believe they thought we should learn to live with typhoid and cholera instead.

    . Suffering and evil are nature’s admonitions””they cannot be got rid of; and the impatient attempts of benevolence to banish them from the world by legislation, before benevolence has learned their object and their end, have always been more productive of evil than good.

    Wow. Do you have a linkie for that please, as I'd like to use it in something.
    https://archive.thinkprogress.org/krugman-the-economist-opposed-attempts-to-improve-public-sanitation-in-the-19th-century-b8602f8b69ff/
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 27,139

    pigeon said:

    Carnyx said:

    pigeon said:

    France going to mandatory WFH 3 days a week.... otherwise known as full time WFH in France.

    They have also banned people from eating on long-distance trains....but i presume drinking and smoking is still allowed.

    Seems up there with Drakeford ban on oven glove sales in terms of actually making a difference to covid spread.

    Classic something-must-be-done-ism - which, to be fair, is what we've also been practicing in the UK. I think that most of us would probably concur that, even if we assume that attempting to suppress Omicron is a good idea, nothing much short of Draconian limits on social interaction is going to stand any real chance of being effective in so doing.

    Johnson and Macron both, for different reasons, have concerns about the continuation of their political careers at the moment, so erring on the side of caution and trusting in the vaccines makes sense for them. They're not going for lockdown or lockdown-lite unless the virus situation becomes obviously, irrefutably desperate.
    The big mistake many European nations made in the summer and autumn, as many of us said at the time, is not taking that time to "learn to live with" the virus.

    The very best thing in the whole pandemic besides the vaccines is the fact we lived for months with consistent 40k daily cases without restrictions.

    That gives us multiple advantages. One is we've got much more people immune already to the whole virus not just the vaccine. The other is that we know we can live with cases.

    Going from 40k daily Delta cases to 100k daily Omicron cases isn't a jump at all for us to worry about if it's 60% less severe. But for those countries that suppressed Delta the jump is far steeper because of both the lack of immunity and relative unpreparedness.
    The multiple advantages including lots of dead people and folk with long covid.
    OK. How many of the restrictions would you have kept in place continuously since March 2020 - and, given that easing any restrictions arguably means condemning at least a few people who would otherwise have survived to death by Covid, what (if any) Covid corpse count would you have been prepared to tolerate to let some of the rules go?
    I think we should have followed the NZ model and we'd be in a much better spot
    I think there was zero chance of the NZ model working in this country for more than a few days. And the costs of that approach are quite high as well.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 27,139
    IshmaelZ said:

    Alistair said:

    The Economist opposed the building of London's sewer system. I believe they thought we should learn to live with typhoid and cholera instead.

    . Suffering and evil are nature’s admonitions””they cannot be got rid of; and the impatient attempts of benevolence to banish them from the world by legislation, before benevolence has learned their object and their end, have always been more productive of evil than good.

    Wow. Do you have a linkie for that please, as I'd like to use it in something.
    https://archive.thinkprogress.org/krugman-the-economist-opposed-attempts-to-improve-public-sanitation-in-the-19th-century-b8602f8b69ff/
    Brilliant, thanks.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 35,332
    Heathener said:

    Why do Conhomers prefer The Truss over Rishi Rich?

    Hypothesis #1 - She gives some of them the horn.

    Hypothesis #2 - Some of them are a bit racist/suffer from subconscious bias.

    Hypothesis #3 - They want Maggie back.

    Tories are like Aussies with Don Bradman who always hoped for another Don. Tories are always hoping for another Maggie. This is all the more poignant given what a terrible disappointment Boris Johnson is proving to be. Theresa May wasn't exactly brilliant either…
    Things didn’t turn out too bad for the Aussies….
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021
    This is getting a bit like Brexit "debate" 2017-2019....the same statements over and over again. I think everybody gets what people position is on the matter.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 1,617

    pigeon said:

    Carnyx said:

    pigeon said:

    France going to mandatory WFH 3 days a week.... otherwise known as full time WFH in France.

    They have also banned people from eating on long-distance trains....but i presume drinking and smoking is still allowed.

    Seems up there with Drakeford ban on oven glove sales in terms of actually making a difference to covid spread.

    Classic something-must-be-done-ism - which, to be fair, is what we've also been practicing in the UK. I think that most of us would probably concur that, even if we assume that attempting to suppress Omicron is a good idea, nothing much short of Draconian limits on social interaction is going to stand any real chance of being effective in so doing.

    Johnson and Macron both, for different reasons, have concerns about the continuation of their political careers at the moment, so erring on the side of caution and trusting in the vaccines makes sense for them. They're not going for lockdown or lockdown-lite unless the virus situation becomes obviously, irrefutably desperate.
    The big mistake many European nations made in the summer and autumn, as many of us said at the time, is not taking that time to "learn to live with" the virus.

    The very best thing in the whole pandemic besides the vaccines is the fact we lived for months with consistent 40k daily cases without restrictions.

    That gives us multiple advantages. One is we've got much more people immune already to the whole virus not just the vaccine. The other is that we know we can live with cases.

    Going from 40k daily Delta cases to 100k daily Omicron cases isn't a jump at all for us to worry about if it's 60% less severe. But for those countries that suppressed Delta the jump is far steeper because of both the lack of immunity and relative unpreparedness.
    The multiple advantages including lots of dead people and folk with long covid.
    OK. How many of the restrictions would you have kept in place continuously since March 2020 - and, given that easing any restrictions arguably means condemning at least a few people who would otherwise have survived to death by Covid, what (if any) Covid corpse count would you have been prepared to tolerate to let some of the rules go?
    I think we should have followed the NZ model and we'd be in a much better spot
    I think there was zero chance of the NZ model working in this country for more than a few days. And the costs of that approach are quite high as well.
    It might've had a chance of working if the British Isles were in the middle of the Atlantic and all of our imports therefore arrived by air or sea. As discussed ad nauseam last year, it's the constant flow of truckers that made the New Zealand approach a total non-starter for us. For the purposes of pandemic management, the Channel effectively doesn't exist.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 5,572

    pigeon said:

    Carnyx said:

    pigeon said:

    France going to mandatory WFH 3 days a week.... otherwise known as full time WFH in France.

    They have also banned people from eating on long-distance trains....but i presume drinking and smoking is still allowed.

    Seems up there with Drakeford ban on oven glove sales in terms of actually making a difference to covid spread.

    Classic something-must-be-done-ism - which, to be fair, is what we've also been practicing in the UK. I think that most of us would probably concur that, even if we assume that attempting to suppress Omicron is a good idea, nothing much short of Draconian limits on social interaction is going to stand any real chance of being effective in so doing.

    Johnson and Macron both, for different reasons, have concerns about the continuation of their political careers at the moment, so erring on the side of caution and trusting in the vaccines makes sense for them. They're not going for lockdown or lockdown-lite unless the virus situation becomes obviously, irrefutably desperate.
    The big mistake many European nations made in the summer and autumn, as many of us said at the time, is not taking that time to "learn to live with" the virus.

    The very best thing in the whole pandemic besides the vaccines is the fact we lived for months with consistent 40k daily cases without restrictions.

    That gives us multiple advantages. One is we've got much more people immune already to the whole virus not just the vaccine. The other is that we know we can live with cases.

    Going from 40k daily Delta cases to 100k daily Omicron cases isn't a jump at all for us to worry about if it's 60% less severe. But for those countries that suppressed Delta the jump is far steeper because of both the lack of immunity and relative unpreparedness.
    The multiple advantages including lots of dead people and folk with long covid.
    OK. How many of the restrictions would you have kept in place continuously since March 2020 - and, given that easing any restrictions arguably means condemning at least a few people who would otherwise have survived to death by Covid, what (if any) Covid corpse count would you have been prepared to tolerate to let some of the rules go?
    I think we should have followed the NZ model and we'd be in a much better spot
    By moving our island into the middle of the Atlantic, stopping all incoming and outgoing traffic you mean? NZ and U.K. are so different that it would not have been possible for us to follow their strategy.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 42,552
    MattW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MattW said:

    FPT:

    glw said:

    The Royal parasites should fund their own yacht, we shouldn't spend this money on the country's largest benefit scroungers, but use the money to look after our children.

    England could fit an air purifier to every classroom for half the price of the new royal yacht, a move which scientists and campaigners say would significantly reduce the spread of Covid in schools.

    The move would cost about £140m, according to calculations by the Liberal Democrats. Government sources have said there will be no delay to the start of the school term, despite surging Omicron cases, and that any additional restrictions will not include classroom closures.


    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2021/dec/27/covid-air-filters-for-all-classrooms-in-england-would-cost-half-of-royal-yacht

    I broadly agree with the idea, but last year a US expert put a much higher figure* proportionally on doing the same thing for schools in the US. And he also concluded it wasn't really feasible as the supply simply didn't exist to do the job at that time. Look at the bottom of the article, New York City alone is distributing 100,000 HEPA purifiers. It is probably a good idea, and certainly better than many other measures that have been taken, but good air filtration fitted to schools will take quite a bit of time and almost certainly a lot more than £140 million.

    * I don't remember exactly what it was but it was many billions of dollars to fit and supply all US classrooms.
    I think we are being subjected to Lib Dem Maths in search of a headline.

    1 - I have not seen Munira Wilson publish any numbers.
    2 - The LDs suggest £140m for 600k classrooms in the UK (for 10.5m school students approx), or £230 per classroom.
    3 - The Irish Taoiseach suggested that it would cost £75m to do Ireland, or £1500 per classroom.
    https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40761129.html
    4 - Though there were other voices suggesting £200 per classroom.
    https://www.thesun.ie/news/7929852/covid-19-ireland-government-schools-collapse/

    A normal classroom is a little under 200 cubic metres, and has around 30 people in it for 6-7 hours a day.
    Can anyone come up with a public building enclosed space grade HEPA air purifier, and deliver, certify (PAT test etc), and fit it for £230?

    If not, I'm inclined to call bullshit on this.
    The pricing is not completely ridiculous.

    You can get a freestanding HEPA filter capable of scrubbing a 3-400 square foot room for around $400, which is about £250. There is no need to pay for installation, as it sits in the corner, whirrs away, and cleans the air.

    However, the filters themselves need very regular changing. So, the cost is not just one-off.
    2 questions there:

    1 - Is that public building with heavy occupation spec? I run heavy duty dehumidifiers, and there is a hell of a difference between a domestic one from B&Q, and something that can deal with a serious application.
    2 - A normal classroom is approx double that area in the UK, and usually has a higher ceiling than a normal room, too.

    Don't let great be the enemy of good.

    Even if it doesn't work as well as it might do in a low-occupancy residential setting, it will still do a pretty good job. These things are designed to run 24/7, the issue with a school is likely to simply be that you need to change the filters much more frequently.

    Given we have lots of little kids who don't have vaccines, this seems like a sensible measure that would significantly reduce transmission of the virus in classrooms for a fairly modest cost.

    Of course... availability of 600,00 HEPA air cleaners at very short notice is another matter altogether.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 5,572
    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    Carnyx said:

    pigeon said:

    France going to mandatory WFH 3 days a week.... otherwise known as full time WFH in France.

    They have also banned people from eating on long-distance trains....but i presume drinking and smoking is still allowed.

    Seems up there with Drakeford ban on oven glove sales in terms of actually making a difference to covid spread.

    Classic something-must-be-done-ism - which, to be fair, is what we've also been practicing in the UK. I think that most of us would probably concur that, even if we assume that attempting to suppress Omicron is a good idea, nothing much short of Draconian limits on social interaction is going to stand any real chance of being effective in so doing.

    Johnson and Macron both, for different reasons, have concerns about the continuation of their political careers at the moment, so erring on the side of caution and trusting in the vaccines makes sense for them. They're not going for lockdown or lockdown-lite unless the virus situation becomes obviously, irrefutably desperate.
    The big mistake many European nations made in the summer and autumn, as many of us said at the time, is not taking that time to "learn to live with" the virus.

    The very best thing in the whole pandemic besides the vaccines is the fact we lived for months with consistent 40k daily cases without restrictions.

    That gives us multiple advantages. One is we've got much more people immune already to the whole virus not just the vaccine. The other is that we know we can live with cases.

    Going from 40k daily Delta cases to 100k daily Omicron cases isn't a jump at all for us to worry about if it's 60% less severe. But for those countries that suppressed Delta the jump is far steeper because of both the lack of immunity and relative unpreparedness.
    The multiple advantages including lots of dead people and folk with long covid.
    OK. How many of the restrictions would you have kept in place continuously since March 2020 - and, given that easing any restrictions arguably means condemning at least a few people who would otherwise have survived to death by Covid, what (if any) Covid corpse count would you have been prepared to tolerate to let some of the rules go?
    I think we should have followed the NZ model and we'd be in a much better spot
    I think there was zero chance of the NZ model working in this country for more than a few days. And the costs of that approach are quite high as well.
    It might've had a chance of working if the British Isles were in the middle of the Atlantic and all of our imports therefore arrived by air or sea. As discussed ad nauseam last year, it's the constant flow of truckers that made the New Zealand approach a total non-starter for us. For the purposes of pandemic management, the Channel effectively doesn't exist.
    Ha snap! Great minds think alike or fools seldom differ...
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,150

    pigeon said:

    Carnyx said:

    pigeon said:

    France going to mandatory WFH 3 days a week.... otherwise known as full time WFH in France.

    They have also banned people from eating on long-distance trains....but i presume drinking and smoking is still allowed.

    Seems up there with Drakeford ban on oven glove sales in terms of actually making a difference to covid spread.

    Classic something-must-be-done-ism - which, to be fair, is what we've also been practicing in the UK. I think that most of us would probably concur that, even if we assume that attempting to suppress Omicron is a good idea, nothing much short of Draconian limits on social interaction is going to stand any real chance of being effective in so doing.

    Johnson and Macron both, for different reasons, have concerns about the continuation of their political careers at the moment, so erring on the side of caution and trusting in the vaccines makes sense for them. They're not going for lockdown or lockdown-lite unless the virus situation becomes obviously, irrefutably desperate.
    The big mistake many European nations made in the summer and autumn, as many of us said at the time, is not taking that time to "learn to live with" the virus.

    The very best thing in the whole pandemic besides the vaccines is the fact we lived for months with consistent 40k daily cases without restrictions.

    That gives us multiple advantages. One is we've got much more people immune already to the whole virus not just the vaccine. The other is that we know we can live with cases.

    Going from 40k daily Delta cases to 100k daily Omicron cases isn't a jump at all for us to worry about if it's 60% less severe. But for those countries that suppressed Delta the jump is far steeper because of both the lack of immunity and relative unpreparedness.
    The multiple advantages including lots of dead people and folk with long covid.
    OK. How many of the restrictions would you have kept in place continuously since March 2020 - and, given that easing any restrictions arguably means condemning at least a few people who would otherwise have survived to death by Covid, what (if any) Covid corpse count would you have been prepared to tolerate to let some of the rules go?
    I think we should have followed the NZ model and we'd be in a much better spot
    You do realise that "the NZ model" would have meant complete secession of all road supplies into the country. We would have quite possibly starved.

    People talk about the NZ model as if it could be modified for the UK and have the same effect. Well, here's the thing, it couldn't. It relied on completely sealed borders, without exception and mandatory quarantine for anybody coming in. It really did mean taking measures to prevent Covid from entering the country. No tolerance levels, for eg. 1 in every 10,000 truck drivers having the virus and passing it on. Because if that happened the whole model failed.

    Because of the number of UK citizens routinely abroad, the virus was also already seeded in this country to a far greater degree than it ever was in NZ. For all the claims in the early days that we were dealing with a handful of cases - we never were. Also the idea that the UK would or could have abandoned hundreds of thousands of UK citizens abroad without ability to return (as was the case in Australia and NZ) - again a complete non-starter.
  • rcs1000 said:

    MattW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MattW said:

    FPT:

    glw said:

    The Royal parasites should fund their own yacht, we shouldn't spend this money on the country's largest benefit scroungers, but use the money to look after our children.

    England could fit an air purifier to every classroom for half the price of the new royal yacht, a move which scientists and campaigners say would significantly reduce the spread of Covid in schools.

    The move would cost about £140m, according to calculations by the Liberal Democrats. Government sources have said there will be no delay to the start of the school term, despite surging Omicron cases, and that any additional restrictions will not include classroom closures.


    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2021/dec/27/covid-air-filters-for-all-classrooms-in-england-would-cost-half-of-royal-yacht

    I broadly agree with the idea, but last year a US expert put a much higher figure* proportionally on doing the same thing for schools in the US. And he also concluded it wasn't really feasible as the supply simply didn't exist to do the job at that time. Look at the bottom of the article, New York City alone is distributing 100,000 HEPA purifiers. It is probably a good idea, and certainly better than many other measures that have been taken, but good air filtration fitted to schools will take quite a bit of time and almost certainly a lot more than £140 million.

    * I don't remember exactly what it was but it was many billions of dollars to fit and supply all US classrooms.
    I think we are being subjected to Lib Dem Maths in search of a headline.

    1 - I have not seen Munira Wilson publish any numbers.
    2 - The LDs suggest £140m for 600k classrooms in the UK (for 10.5m school students approx), or £230 per classroom.
    3 - The Irish Taoiseach suggested that it would cost £75m to do Ireland, or £1500 per classroom.
    https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40761129.html
    4 - Though there were other voices suggesting £200 per classroom.
    https://www.thesun.ie/news/7929852/covid-19-ireland-government-schools-collapse/

    A normal classroom is a little under 200 cubic metres, and has around 30 people in it for 6-7 hours a day.
    Can anyone come up with a public building enclosed space grade HEPA air purifier, and deliver, certify (PAT test etc), and fit it for £230?

    If not, I'm inclined to call bullshit on this.
    The pricing is not completely ridiculous.

    You can get a freestanding HEPA filter capable of scrubbing a 3-400 square foot room for around $400, which is about £250. There is no need to pay for installation, as it sits in the corner, whirrs away, and cleans the air.

    However, the filters themselves need very regular changing. So, the cost is not just one-off.
    2 questions there:

    1 - Is that public building with heavy occupation spec? I run heavy duty dehumidifiers, and there is a hell of a difference between a domestic one from B&Q, and something that can deal with a serious application.
    2 - A normal classroom is approx double that area in the UK, and usually has a higher ceiling than a normal room, too.

    Don't let great be the enemy of good.

    Even if it doesn't work as well as it might do in a low-occupancy residential setting, it will still do a pretty good job. These things are designed to run 24/7, the issue with a school is likely to simply be that you need to change the filters much more frequently.

    Given we have lots of little kids who don't have vaccines, this seems like a sensible measure that would significantly reduce transmission of the virus in classrooms for a fairly modest cost.

    Of course... availability of 600,00 HEPA air cleaners at very short notice is another matter altogether.
    Though we have had quite a while to do something about that, and given how germ-ridden schools are in Normal Times, they feel like a sensible plan for the future.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472
    edited December 2021
    Sale shopping done, bought a new TV, last time was about 8 years ago so we made it a good one. Did our bit for the, err, Japanese economy!

    Reading back a few of the comments about waning immunity, I think there's a bit of talking across purposes, maybe just a misunderstanding, this is my understanding and @Charles can correct me if I'm wrong.

    1. Neutralising antibodies are a first line defence and booster shots are very good at creating these. For older people this can be the difference between life and death.
    2. T-cells and b-cells are second and third line defence, 2 doses of vaccine are just ok at training these to recognise COVID, prior infection is very good. Omicron doesn't evade either of these, dilution of CD4 response is tiny and dilution of the CD8 response is nil.
    3. The problem with t-cells and b-cell based immunity is that it needs our own immune system to mount a defence, for people under 80 this is not really an issue and the immune system training we get from three jabs is thought to be excellent. For over 80+ it's not so good because the virus can overwhelm them and cause severe symptoms before memory based immune responses are mounted.

    Summarising, cases in the triple or even double jabbed under 80s might not be a huge deal, cases in the over 80s may result in worse outcomes the further away from a booster shot they are. Post 12 weeks nAb concentration may be too low to protect from severe symptom meaning they will be wholly reliant on memory cell based immunity, which is where point 3 becomes relevant.

    I believe this is why the government are already weighing up fourth shots for older people 12 weeks after their 3rd.

    What we may end up with is a lot of under 60s getting some variant of COVID and then their second and third line of defence seeing it off before severe symptoms manifest but the over 60s requiring a medium to high nAb concentration to maintain neutralising immunity. It could potentially be done with half doses of Pfizer or quarter doses of Moderna two or three times a year.

    A fourth dose of Moderna or Pfizer feels completely wasted on someone like me, I've just successfully mounted an immune response to Omicron clearly my system is up to the task after two or three doses.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756

    The Tory talent is not exactly brilliant is it? Beyond Sunak they're all poor

    What's so good about Sunak?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,866
    edited December 2021

    IshmaelZ said:

    Alistair said:

    The Economist opposed the building of London's sewer system. I believe they thought we should learn to live with typhoid and cholera instead.

    . Suffering and evil are nature’s admonitions””they cannot be got rid of; and the impatient attempts of benevolence to banish them from the world by legislation, before benevolence has learned their object and their end, have always been more productive of evil than good.

    Wow. Do you have a linkie for that please, as I'd like to use it in something.
    https://archive.thinkprogress.org/krugman-the-economist-opposed-attempts-to-improve-public-sanitation-in-the-19th-century-b8602f8b69ff/
    Brilliant, thanks.
    Be sure to read the linked pdf, lots of contemporary letters and debates decrying the intrusion into personal liberty that implementing a sewer system would bring.

    http://www.homepages.ucl.ac.uk/~ucessjb/Halliday 1999.pdf
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,150
    Re: HEPA filters. Do they use electricity? Any issues with climate emergency agenda?
This discussion has been closed.