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Should we expect crossover in the next CON leader betting? – politicalbetting.com
Should we expect crossover in the next CON leader betting? – politicalbetting.com
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Should we expect crossover in the next CON leader betting? – politicalbetting.com
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https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1475316274011987971?t=hXV-9eYfmdbV0-KwkaPkBw&s=19
Its has the vibes of Wuhan 2020 again.
measuring the impact of different party leaders on voting intention.
Unprompted – Con 32 Lab 39
Johnson as leader - Con 29 Lab 41
Sunak as leader - Con 34 Lab 37
Truss as leader - Con 27 Lab 43
Gove as leader – Con 23 Lab 41
https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1475560303781978112
Sunak gets closer to Labour, just 3% behind but on today's ConservativeHome survey getting rid of Boris may end up with Truss as leader not Sunak.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/dec/27/boris-johnson-a-drag-on-tories-and-sunak-would-do-better-poll-shows?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
Boris can then use the above to play off rivals against each other while hoping for a poll bounce from no new restrictions
In rural areas, a quick foray into the sheep dip will suffice...
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3160997/chinese-scientists-develop-ai-prosecutor-can-press-its-own
I think this guy has always been worth listening to for a considered view. Impressed about how little he seeks to input himself directly into the political arguments about restrictions, and whether they are necessary etc. Obviously it is his job partly to send warnings about the extent to which the NHS is stretched, and the impact this has on quality of care, but he also genuinely seems to take an approach as much as possible of dealing the hand that he is given, and not always appealing elsewhere for solutions.
https://twitter.com/timspector/status/1475558104142127110?t=MXOFPIsH08eyLfesUdS2zw&s=19
Has anyone else noticed what a remarkable number of people appear preternaturally terrified of "draughts"?
It doesn't even have to be cold. Just moving air.
Wherever did this idea come from?
1) People are really bad at working out how they might respond to changes like this
2) We don't know what other impacts a new leader might have (divide/unite the party, change policy direction etc.)
3) Some of these leaders (i.e. Truss) not well known
..
So, given that, what can we learn from this.
Firstly, Johnson is almost certainly a drag on the Tory Party at this stage. The fact that the Tory vote share drops when we mention his name in the question really isn't great news...
Secondly, questions like this normally lead to a drop in vote share - so the fact that Sunak manages to noticeably increase the Tory vote share is significant.
he is still significantly overperforming his party.
Thirdly, Gove *really* isn't a popular politician with the public (and unlike Truss, he is already pretty well known).
The fact that he is dragging the party's support down by that much is significant.
https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1475561005820297226?s=20
If you're trying to ensure a lockdown then spraying poison in the air would ensure I didn't leave the house!
Even placebos can have an impact given the right circumstances.
Sunak is the only sensible choice if the Tories want half a chance at the next election.
1 - I have not seen Munira Wilson publish any numbers.
2 - The LDs suggest £140m for 600k classrooms in the UK (for 10.5m school students approx), or £230 per classroom.
3 - The Irish Taoiseach suggested that it would cost £75m to do Ireland, or £1500 per classroom.
https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40761129.html
4 - Though there were other voices suggesting £200 per classroom.
https://www.thesun.ie/news/7929852/covid-19-ireland-government-schools-collapse/
A normal classroom is a little under 200 cubic metres, and has around 30 people in it for 6-7 hours a day.
Can anyone come up with a public building enclosed space grade HEPA air purifier, and deliver, certify (PAT test etc), and fit it for £230?
If not, I'm inclined to call bullshit on this.
Oddly, just like SA...
I think this information is one of the reasons for no change for new year...
They have also banned people from eating on long-distance trains....but i presume drinking and smoking is still allowed.
Seems up there with Drakeford ban on oven glove sales in terms of actually making a difference to covid spread.
I think it ticks just about all the boxes.
You can get a freestanding HEPA filter capable of scrubbing a 3-400 square foot room for around $400, which is about £250. There is no need to pay for installation, as it sits in the corner, whirrs away, and cleans the air.
However, the filters themselves need very regular changing. So, the cost is not just one-off.
There was some SARS transmission within Hong Kong apartment blocks, I hazily seem to recall, so that might be a more serious problem they would need to address.
And to be honest, that's how it should be. There are times when it's appropriate to change Prime Ministers mid-term. But a PM ought to be for a full term, not just for Christmas. Even if they do leave unpleasant messages on the carpet.
Hypothetical polling showing no alternative Tory leader beating Blair saved Major in 1995 and hypothetical polling showing no alternative Labour leader beating Cameron saved Brown in 2010. Therefore this polling could be crucial for Boris' survival
Johnson and Macron both, for different reasons, have concerns about the continuation of their political careers at the moment, so erring on the side of caution and trusting in the vaccines makes sense for them. They're not going for lockdown or lockdown-lite unless the virus situation becomes obviously, irrefutably desperate.
1 - Is that public building with heavy occupation spec? I run heavy duty dehumidifiers, and there is a hell of a difference between a domestic one from B&Q, and something that can deal with a serious application.
2 - A normal classroom is approx double that area in the UK, and usually has a higher ceiling than a normal room, too.
Can you imagine looking for covid by continuously retaking LFT tests until you get a positive result, and in doing so disregarding the actual instructions and 'following advice on twitter' instead? And then boasting about it on Twitter. And this from a UCL professor. Wow.
Hypothesis #1 - She gives some of them the horn.
Hypothesis #2 - Some of them are a bit racist/suffer from subconscious bias.
As well as 1 and 2.
The very best thing in the whole pandemic besides the vaccines is the fact we lived for months with consistent 40k daily cases without restrictions.
That gives us multiple advantages. One is we've got much more people immune already to the whole virus not just the vaccine. The other is that we know we can live with cases.
Going from 40k daily Delta cases to 100k daily Omicron cases isn't a jump at all for us to worry about if it's 60% less severe. But for those countries that suppressed Delta the jump is far steeper because of both the lack of immunity and relative unpreparedness.
Hypothesis #4 - All of the above
Parts of the UK are still clinging to the droplets-vs-aresol distinction and insisting Covid is spread via droplets.
It seems inevitable to be that going forward building regs will have to be updated to mandate high quality filtration systems in HVAC installations.
Tories are like Aussies with Don Bradman who always hoped for another Don. Tories are always hoping for another Maggie. This is all the more poignant given what a terrible disappointment Boris Johnson is proving to be. Theresa May wasn't exactly brilliant either.
Your #2 may have a rather better angle on it. I'm not sure tories, like anyone else, particularly warm to the idea of a mega-rich multimillionaire businessman (and wife). Liz Truss' background is more similar to Maggie's and the northern links don't do her any harm either.
Her current 869 jobs may let us see, if Boris continues dangling on by his fingernails.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loi_Évin?wprov=sfla1
He's chicken, and his decisions will impact people soon trashing his brand.
If you can't live with the virus as it is, then the virus+issues is going to be even more challenging for you.
Not learning to live with it is the only foolish policy.
What else do you want doing?
On the other hand those nations that don't know how to live with the virus will face the double whammy of both the virus and whatever the issues are you're bothered about. That's even worse not better.
. Suffering and evil are nature’s admonitions””they cannot be got rid of; and the impatient attempts of benevolence to banish them from the world by legislation, before benevolence has learned their object and their end, have always been more productive of evil than good.
I have not modified my behaviour due to Omicron, only due to government requirements.
Huzzah.
Even if it doesn't work as well as it might do in a low-occupancy residential setting, it will still do a pretty good job. These things are designed to run 24/7, the issue with a school is likely to simply be that you need to change the filters much more frequently.
Given we have lots of little kids who don't have vaccines, this seems like a sensible measure that would significantly reduce transmission of the virus in classrooms for a fairly modest cost.
Of course... availability of 600,00 HEPA air cleaners at very short notice is another matter altogether.
People talk about the NZ model as if it could be modified for the UK and have the same effect. Well, here's the thing, it couldn't. It relied on completely sealed borders, without exception and mandatory quarantine for anybody coming in. It really did mean taking measures to prevent Covid from entering the country. No tolerance levels, for eg. 1 in every 10,000 truck drivers having the virus and passing it on. Because if that happened the whole model failed.
Because of the number of UK citizens routinely abroad, the virus was also already seeded in this country to a far greater degree than it ever was in NZ. For all the claims in the early days that we were dealing with a handful of cases - we never were. Also the idea that the UK would or could have abandoned hundreds of thousands of UK citizens abroad without ability to return (as was the case in Australia and NZ) - again a complete non-starter.
Reading back a few of the comments about waning immunity, I think there's a bit of talking across purposes, maybe just a misunderstanding, this is my understanding and @Charles can correct me if I'm wrong.
1. Neutralising antibodies are a first line defence and booster shots are very good at creating these. For older people this can be the difference between life and death.
2. T-cells and b-cells are second and third line defence, 2 doses of vaccine are just ok at training these to recognise COVID, prior infection is very good. Omicron doesn't evade either of these, dilution of CD4 response is tiny and dilution of the CD8 response is nil.
3. The problem with t-cells and b-cell based immunity is that it needs our own immune system to mount a defence, for people under 80 this is not really an issue and the immune system training we get from three jabs is thought to be excellent. For over 80+ it's not so good because the virus can overwhelm them and cause severe symptoms before memory based immune responses are mounted.
Summarising, cases in the triple or even double jabbed under 80s might not be a huge deal, cases in the over 80s may result in worse outcomes the further away from a booster shot they are. Post 12 weeks nAb concentration may be too low to protect from severe symptom meaning they will be wholly reliant on memory cell based immunity, which is where point 3 becomes relevant.
I believe this is why the government are already weighing up fourth shots for older people 12 weeks after their 3rd.
What we may end up with is a lot of under 60s getting some variant of COVID and then their second and third line of defence seeing it off before severe symptoms manifest but the over 60s requiring a medium to high nAb concentration to maintain neutralising immunity. It could potentially be done with half doses of Pfizer or quarter doses of Moderna two or three times a year.
A fourth dose of Moderna or Pfizer feels completely wasted on someone like me, I've just successfully mounted an immune response to Omicron clearly my system is up to the task after two or three doses.
http://www.homepages.ucl.ac.uk/~ucessjb/Halliday 1999.pdf