Categories
The Johnson exit date betting gets very tight – politicalbetting.com
The Johnson exit date betting gets very tight – politicalbetting.com
As we move on from the holiday season the big political betting market is on when Johnson will no longer by PM. This goes up and down depending on the latest developments and all eyes will be on the PM as politics returns to normal after the holiday break.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
England's players have not yet left their hotel for the Melbourne Cricket Ground. They are instead "awaiting results of Covid tests following a positive test in the team's family group".
https://twitter.com/BBCSport/status/1475234951100518406?t=u_YfpvzeUAEiwRpmVEot0A&s=19
Humorous reply...
Live scenes in the England hotel: https://t.co/xctMMs5oS7
Govt mood on Covid increasingly leaning on guidance:
“The latest research on Omicron supports Boris’ decision to be cautious. I don’t see why he would recall everyone to Westminster when things are starting to look as if we can make our way through it.”
What hilarious spin lol.
Anyway, now complacency is going to set in again and we're going to be in real trouble soon. I am so glad the Government learnt their lessons, not
https://twitter.com/BBCSport/status/1475237001733586951?s=20
Edit: But yes that was funny!
Scottish Independence Voting Intention:
NO: 44% (+1)
YES: 44% (=)
Undecideds: 12% (-1)
Undecideds Excluded:
NO: 50% (+1)
YES: 50% (-1)
Via
@OpiniumResearch
, 15-22 December,
Changes w/ 3-8 September.
“It is also revenge for those who have been killed, humiliated and discriminated on because of their race.
“I’m an Indian Sikh, a Sith. My name was Jaswant Singh Chail, my name is Darth Jones.”
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/17149695/man-crossbow-threatens-kill-queen/
https://www.euronews.com/2021/12/23/nigeria-destroys-more-than-one-million-expired-covid-19-vaccines
GN all 👍
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n5uzrn4e0Wg
See: Cameron and Blair
2 family members and 2 support staff.
We can do this! Get mixing! Series abandoned!
Serve them right after the RL World Cup.
"There's a real credibility issue - something needs to be done."
One of the things that Tim Spector gets very annoyed about if how the symptoms that the powers continue to say are COVID arent in any relation to what his study picks up.
https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/12/democrats-are-doing-weirdly-well-in-redistricting.html
The cough has gone. It's the sore throat and headache now.
Maybe for balance, this professors assessment from the polling, that they are making little progress and no one has a clue what they stand for or actually likes them should be a header?
Gerrymandering is wrong.
In California, presumably? Not captured by Google everywhere.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10344169/Scientist-warned-world-Omicron-warns-China-Zero-Covid-policy-WONT-WORK.html
"Scientist who warned the world of Omicron variant says China's 'Zero Covid' policy won't work against super-transmissible mutant strain as city of 13 million is locked down
Tulio de Oliveira is director of the Centre for Epidemic Response & Innovation
Said China's 'Zero Covid' will not work against the super-transmissible variant
Chinese city of Xi-an's 13 million residents were locked down Thursday
Not know what variant is spreading through the city but it's likely to be Omicron "
The problem is that it is unreasonable to expect unilateral disarmament. Gerrymandering should be banned, but unless it is banned nationwide, Dems only stopping Gerrymandering in blue states effectively hands the GOP the House.
Yes, sorry, I re-read it and it wasn’t clear. Yes, applies to the CA redistricting only.
If you look at the NY Magazine article, it mentions the CA redistricting being favourable to Democrats. That’s not an unbiased outcome. Google has been at the forefront of lobbying efforts when it comes to individual districts
However, if you look at this cycle, the most aggressive gerrymandering has come from the Democrats. Illinois is probably the worst example (so far).
The idea that the Democrats have been reluctantly dragged into this because they are the “good” party and fighting against “evil” is absolutely laughable. The Democrats are as bad as the Republicans.
California’s ‘Independent’ Gerrymander - WSJ
It won't be popular on this board but I'd give the current English regions each a Parliament and a First Minister and devolve most powers to them like Scotland, while the federal government in London would do whatever is reserved to it such as foreign affairs, national transport, the NHS, culture and defence.
Given all the shit heading towards BJ and the Govt over the past few weeks, the fact that Labour cannot break past 40% highlights its problems.
You can take three views of Labour’s problems when it comes to its woes: it’s down to Corbyn, it’s down to Brexit or it’s down to Labour being seen by many of its former voters are fundamentally hostile to their views and interests.
Starmer’s approach is to view the problem as mainly down to the first and the second when actually the biggest issue is the third. If you go back to 2005, Labour was seeing already very big swings away even pre-Brexit.
Starmer cannot cute the third issue because (a) he is part of the problem given his background / views (b) despite his attempts to portray himself as patriotic etc, a lot of voters see through it and (c) even if he tried to a Blair and take on the progressives, most people know he would lose.
Labour’s current lead is built in quicksand. An apologising BJ proclaiming “mea culpa” and cracking down on the woke issues such as immigration and the cultural wars will recoup a lot of the lost votes very quickly.
----
(Sigh, blockquotes are fucked up somewhere.)
Democrats invented gerrymandering.
But America has two choices: either they need to work in a birpartisan way to eliminate gerrymandering or democracy falls further into disrepair.
And if democracy falls in America, we all lose. People who trade short term political goals against the longer term health of the system are fools, and they stand to lose everything.
If you look at the NY Magazine article, it mentions the CA redistricting being favourable to Democrats. That’s not an unbiased outcome. Google has been at the forefront of lobbying efforts when it comes to individual districts
----
(blockquote fuck up again...)
There is a wonderful model that was built by a couple of academics that basically says "are the length of the perimeters of the congressional districts so large relative to their area that they are being designed to plan?"
It's a nice idea: gerrymandered maps tend to have very large perimeter-to-area ratios. By limiting this, you effectively reduce gerrymandering while still allowing local political control over boundary areas.
It would be nice if politicians on both sides could embrace it.
Doesn't 538 reckon the Dems have to be 4-5 points ahead to get a 50/50 chance of winning the House? That means they could get close to 10% more votes than the Republicans, and still lose.
That doesn't suggest the current system favours them.
Even most of the ‘bi-partisan’ commissions are full of politicians just trying to make their own seats safer, rather then drawing lines in sensible places.
They are too incompetent, cowardly and just plain stupid to control immigration and the culture wars shit can be tricky to calibrate. Hence the headlong retreat over the England football team in the summer.
Like I say I think "counter-gerrymander back to parity" is ethical, you shouldn't have the government mostly controlled by whoever is the least scrupulous. But needing to do it shows the system is bad.
1. To reiterate, I think gerrymandering by either side is wrong. We will never get a Boundary Commission style outcome in the US because of the states rights issue but In an ideal world, both parties would work towards a solution;
2. That won’t happen because there is a distrust on both sides. Republicans feel - with some justification - that so-called “independent” commissions are giving the advantage to the Democrats because there is so much soft money being pumped in by organisations such as Mark Zuckerberg’s organisation (look it up as to where their money went in Nov 2020 to encourage GOTV operations) that Democrats naturally have an advantage. The CA “independent” commission is a classic example;
3. That leads on to my third point re Nate Silver’s calcs. I haven’t run the numbers but (a) Nate Silver is inherently pro-liberal and (b) more importantly, his calculations don’t pass the smell test. Take CA for example. It is the biggest state in the House. Under the proposed new boundaries, Republicans will have c. 17% of seats on c 33% share of the vote. NY state is likely to see a similar skew and again that has a large caucus. Conversely, many Republican states can’t skew so much because their populations are so much smaller - the only two even approaching either CA or NY would be TX and FL, and they have far fewer seats. I would question Silver’s numbers
This is the problem with much guff you read about English devolution. It’s not just half thought-out, it’s not even a tenth thought-out.
Or some such nonsense.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2021/04/david-cameron-and-great-sell-out
Re immigration, having Yvette Cooper as shadow HS is a Godsend because she lives immigration and can’t control herself plus there plenty of back material showing her support for refugees.
Re the culture wars, tricky to calibrate is overegging it as is the football example. The Government rowed back because we were all led to believe there was a wave of hate crime against Rashford et Al when it turned out to be 12 (I think) people who will eventually charged and the mural of the Blessed St Marcus was not actually found to have been defaced with racist graffiti at all.
Hoping Topping and IshmaelZ can shed some light on the 'semi-sexual relation with the horse' thing.
The temporarily part is just to pretend that it won’t become permanent !
However, onwards and upwards; it would appear that Grandson 2 is enjoying life at Uni, and seems to be getting something from his lectures, and Granddaughter 3 is recovering from the effects of the Covid-related disruption of her school life.
But even so, the basic problems are existential (loss of the red wall, differences between the metropolitan and regional voters, piling up votes in a few seats) he is merely plastering over the cracks and delaying the likely slow disintegration of the labour party.
(Sigh, blockquotes are fucked up somewhere.)
Democrats invented gerrymandering.
But America has two choices: either they need to work in a birpartisan way to eliminate gerrymandering or democracy falls further into disrepair.
And if democracy falls in America, we all lose. People who trade short term political goals against the longer term health of the system are fools, and they stand to lose everything.
The problem is that they believe they will gain and the next guy will lose everything
And they may well be right
This is pathetic.
The US electoral system is fncked up in more ways than one.
I wouldn't bet against right now...
What’s changed is the sharp drop in the number of people who’ll fall for it.
'And insults abound – anyone looking to criticise covertly may well enjoy “ultracrepidarian” or “cacafuego” (one who loves to pass comment on subjects they know nothing about and a blustering braggart – literally a “fire-shitter” – respectively)'
An article which I shall save, and perhaps play a part in the rejuvenation of some of the words quotes. I end with her last thoughts; 'Respair' is fresh hope; a recovery from despair. May 2022 finally be its moment.'
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1474808797138931715?t=14MOCvpnFxT7fZhEHg9Pbw&s=19
And would go some way at least in addressing the problem of computer modelled redistributing, an arms race which has got completely out of hand.
Another electoral arms race might well be the result.
Or perhaps he included it in his reconversion confession!
EXCL: Significant life events such as weddings and funerals are set to be exempted from new Covid restrictions this time if the government decides it needs to impose tougher measures
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/weddings-and-funerals-spared-from-covid-curbs-7nzcdmtlv
If there are further restrictions it's going to be all about tokenism.
The National Socialist party was elected under PR.
Steve Baker and Penny Mordaunt are tied 3rd on 8% each
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2021/12/our-next-tory-leader-survey-truss-leads-sunak-by-18-votes.html
Let alone having restrictions for weddings, or funerals, or education.
No restrictions. Nothing. Nada. Zero. No guidance either.
Vaccines and reclaim normal life. That's it.
LAB: 41% (+8) // 309 (+107)
CON: 35% (-10) // 255 (-111)
LDM: 9% (-3) // 9 (-2)
GRN: 5% (+2) // 1 (=)
SNP: 5% (+1) // 54 (+6)
PLC: 0.8% (+0.3) // 4 (=)
Via
@Survation
, 22 Dec.
Changes w/ GE2019.
https://twitter.com/electionmapsuk/status/1475274452652986376
It is time for Starmer to resign!
70 percent of Jewish Labour Movement members polled say Labour now ‘a safe space’ for Jews
In Wales, Drakeford's technocratic and statist mentality means he'll take any excuse to control things. In Scotland, Sturgeon will always do something different from England just to show she can, and try to cause further divergence along the route to her ultimate goal of independence. Northern Ireland, the situation is more difficult and complex anyway.
But in England, we have a Prime Minister whose career is at an end, a large and restless group on the Tory backbenches who will oppose further restrictions on principle even if they are needed, and a Cabinet that is obviously divided on the issue.
It is slightly disturbing to reflect that at no point in that post have I felt the need to discuss epidemiology in considering whether more restrictions are likely...
Funerals?!?!
I think it's quite possible the Tory brand is so damaged in the Red Wall it is now impossible to recover.