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The voters think 2022 will be Boris Johnson’s annus horribilis – politicalbetting.com
The voters think 2022 will be Boris Johnson’s annus horribilis – politicalbetting.com
That includes over half of 2019 Conservative voters, while only 4 in 10 2019 Labour voters think that Keir Starmer won’t be Leader of the Labour Party by the end of 2022 pic.twitter.com/RUJjZmMVh5
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"Gallia est omnis divisa in partes tres"
I first encountered the powers of your soothsaying when you confidently informed us that there was no chance whatsoever of Emma Raducanu being Sports Personality of the Year.
But I do find it amusing that some tories are still clinging on to flotsam, like shipwreck survivors who can't quite believe that the good ship Boris has sunk.
To add to the list of problems above, we should add the potential for a significant war to break out in 2022: for instance Russia versus Ukraine, or China versus Taiwan. I hope to goodness that doesn't happen, but if it does then it could be quite an event for both main parties.
It doesn't matter what is going in in the country, though the state of things is absolutely sh*t right now and for the foreseeable, Johnson is useless for the job of PM. Chaotic, incompetent, disorganised, disloyal, lazy, sketchy and a serial liar.
He might yet con people at the ballot box with his snakeoil salesmanship but for the actual job of running this country he is not up to the job.
And that's why the tories will bomb.
From what I can see leasing is better in most cases than PCP. You can lease a new Nissan Micra car for £150 per month; total cost, or an electric car for £225 per month. Presumably the lease company buy the cars from the manufacturer at a large discount, lease them for 3 years, then resell them on the used car market. Low interest rates help, but are not essential to make this model work.
The cash price of buying new cars has gone through the roof, over the past few years. My guess is that it is exploiting people who cling to traditional models of ownership.
;-)
Snow underfoot, falling rain, and an icy wind. Not delightful outside.
"hopes are higher for Joe Biden in his position as President of the United States Half (51%) think it is unlikely that he will lose his job before the year is done"
All this (together with expectations of a GE) shows is that the public have no knowledge whatsoever of the minutiae of politics.
People aren't interested. Which is why people just vote on overall big picture general impression. None of the detail matters.
It's also why I don't think what happens with the pandemic or lockdowns will have any impact on voting intention. Most people simply don't think it's a political issue.
Actually, the location might be of interest: I'm staying near the medieval Swarkestone Causeway, which I've always wanted to walk over. But it is narrow, and there is no pavement. I'm hoping that traffic will be light early on a Boxing Day Sunday.
Incidentally, the bridge was as far south as Bonny Prince Charlie's men got, before they high-tailed it back north.
So I'm going to run the mile over the bridge and causeway, head towards Melbourne, then head back along the old Midland Railway Melbourne branch - which includes another beautiful bridge over the river, this time cast iron.
Or I may chicken out and do a different run...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swarkestone_Bridge
https://britishlistedbuildings.co.uk/101280933-railway-bridge-over-the-river-trent-melbourne
Adam Drummond, of Opinium, said the most striking finding was that Leavers were now more hesitant about the virtues of Brexit than previously.
“For most of the Brexit process any time you’d ask a question that could be boiled down to ‘is Brexit good or bad?’ you’d have all of the Remainers saying ‘bad’ and all of the Leavers saying ‘good’ and these would cancel each other out,” he said.
“Now what we’re seeing is a significant minority of Leavers saying that things are going badly or at least worse than they expected. While 59% of Remain voters said, ‘I expected it to go badly and think it has’, only 17% of Leave voters said, ‘I expected it to go well and think it has’.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/dec/25/one-year-on-most-voters-say-brexit-has-gone-badly
Their problem, IMHO, comes out of an addiction to "zero Covid". This means they are more willing to accept restrictions.
It also means they didn't get a whole bunch of (mostly) harmless "exit wave cases" in the summer.
Plus, of course, it turns out that AZ-AZ-Pfizer is highly efficacious.
All that being said, most of the continent will have boosted more than half all adults by mid-January, which is going to be second only to the UK.
Latin wasn’t very big in Han China, the Kushan empire, Caledonia, Hibernia, Scandinavia, Magna Germania or most of the planet for that matter.
Her Majesty’s Government strongly disagrees with you:
https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2021/364/contents
An addiction to zero Covid? In mainland Europe? What on earth are you talking about?
These stinking great falsehoods really need to be called out.
South Africa's Archbishop Desmond Tutu dies at 90 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-59793726
He will always be remembered as a magnificent, tireless, dauntless opponent of apartheid, and the first non-white Archbishop of Cape Town. And as the chair of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission.
But whenever I think of him, I will always think of one thing - that beautiful, loving, kindly, amazing smile.
Root may survive for want of alternatives, although bluntly for his own sake I hope he quits.
Bur with Thorpe, Collingwood, Jon Lewis and Richard Dawson all available as coaches surely Silverwood is toast?
IMHO it’s pretty much impossible to stop it with NPIs, unless you go down the Chinese route, so the priority needs to be vaccinations and treatment - both of which we thankfully now have in abundance. The vulnerable can isolate if they wish, as for example my parents are doing, but we are pretty much all going to get it eventually.
It was good to see the pushback from the Cabinet last week, as the costs of restrictions - both actual costs and reduced revenues - start to outweigh the benefits of re-introducing them.
I don't see how this abruptly gets reversed, even if England avoids more restrictions and Omicron recedes and the booster programme is a success and and and. People think he's a lying cheating scumbag ("stand up if you hate Boris") and they aren't likely to forget that opinion even if the next 6 months are perfect.
That of course is itself unlikely in the extreme. Things won't be perfect. There will be more self-inflicted disasters because that's all he is capable of. So 2022 will be his final year in office. The only question is when he goes and who succeeds him.
Don't you?
We are replacing both our remaining cars this coming year. (For many years we ran three cars, but can thankfully wave goodbye to that pattern.)
The secondary car coming in March (an EV) is a lease deal. I am comfortable with that.
I had been planning on purchasing a new primary car (probably also EV) in the summer, but have been horrified by the prices. It needs to be large, have excellent range, and preferably a luxury feel, and those babies ain’t cheap. Still weighing my options, but leasing is definitely on the table for that one too.
Buying big chunks of metal, plastic and electronics you largely don’t understand just seems like a mug’s game to me.
I believe it is largely about acquiring large volumes of new cars at massive discounts. That Nissan Micra deal I mentioned allows you to use the car for the first 3 years of its life for £5400. The car costs £15k new. The leasing company must be buying the car at a massive discount, which would make sense as it is a dated model, there is probably a surplus that the manufacturer needs to get rid of. So the price would be set by three factors: the cost of acquiring the car, the likely resale value (presumably at auction to a used car dealer), and the demand for it on the lease market.
https://www.hotcarleasing.co.uk/car-leasing/nissan/micra/visia-hatchback-petrol-manual
So it follows that - unless the lease has punitive provisions, as a consumer you are much better off leasing a Nissan Micra than buying it new.
https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?t=1966066
Right now all the BMW EVs are “odd”. I’m waiting for them to launch a sane one, at a sane price.
How this rise is distributed is an interesting question, but if leasing/pcp deals start to resemble 50% of useful life rather than 25% they are going to become spectacularly expensive as the residual at the end is rubbish.
Where the system may well collapse is if the shortening lifespans aren't priced in by the leasing suits who assume previous levels of residuals are achievable, but who then discover they've taken a one way bet on a lot of very expensive tat.
I'm a bit bemused by the type of person who runs new cars - my current banger cost me £2k five years ago, I've so far got 112k miles out of it. It is getting a bit tired now, but had I leased a Micra (a vastly inferior car) for £150 a month I would have had spent £9k to achieve the same result (and I bet the £150 a month doesn't give you 20-25k annual miles either).
It has a Cd of 0.25 making it the most aerodynamically efficient SUV ever built. What more do you want? Engineers don't design cars by just standing around looking at them...
Everyone hated the 'big grill' G80 M3/M4 when it first came out but they look really good in the metal/plastic and now the 'small grill' F80 M3/M4 looks dated.
If you are trying to strike a balance between having a decent car and economics, then the best option is to buy one at year 3, preferably a reliable Japanese make, and sell it privately at year 7/8. Works out about £75 per month.
One other consideration is that if the life of a car is cut in half that isn't going to do its environmental credentials any good at all.
What's surely needed is a car which can have new batteries put in easily so they can last considerably longer.
Edit - incidentally I agree with you, I bought second hand last year when my old faithful gave up after 12 years, because the economics of a new car didn't stack up by comparison. However, (1) that was me as a cash buyer - bring financing in and the equation changes and (2) where would we get second hand cars from if people didn't buy new?
Pricing leases today though, that’s a more difficult exercise. The supply constraints will mean fewer discounts, and the rapidly-changing nature of both car technology and legislation, makes for a more difficult job setting prices for these cars three years down the line. Interest rates are also a factor, rising cost of credit will make used cars cheaper.
At the bangernomics end of the spectrum, I predict that today’s cars are going to be difficult to run as future bangers, as the sort of things that break at 10 or 15 years become more expensive to replace, and more parts are linked to computers that require main dealer service.
Everyone hated the 'big grill' G80 M3/M4 when it first came out but they look really good in the metal/plastic and now the 'small grill' F80 M3/M4 looks dated.
I dont think it looks ugly, but the price ffs! I had a BMW X5 hybrid until recently which was £65k 5 years ago. I thought that expensive, but £115k ! Ouch!
It has a Cd of 0.25 making it the most aerodynamically efficient SUV ever built. What more do you want? Engineers don't design cars by just standing around looking at them...
Everyone hated the 'big grill' G80 M3/M4 when it first came out but they look really good in the metal/plastic and now the 'small grill' F80 M3/M4 looks dated.
I hate almost everything about this iX. BMW's vast nostrils design language is bad enough when they are a huuge grill for letting air in. When its a blanked-off grill its even worse. Plus the stupid holes where the door handles used to be, a steering wheel thats been beaten into an odd shape etc etc etc.
EDIT - Vanilla doing weird shit to the quotes this morning
And Fraser Nelson "asking the right questions of scientists"? If you say so.
The next couple of months might be good news for him on the virus front, but after that, the news is going to be energy price rises and local election defeats.
Since Omi *seems* to be less severe, you'd imagine that 'skipping' delta will lead to lower deaths.
If I was to buy a used one for a low price I would stick to a Nissan Leaf as it is proven technology.
Do you have a source for this claim? I don't think the vaccines have no effect in terms of reducing your risk of hospitalisation.
I drive a Fiat 500 that I have had from new, and currently 13 years and 102 000 miles. Starts first time, doesn't burn oil, no rust at all. Apart from minor drinks in the bodywork it looks and drives like new.
Omicron is infecting people who have had other variants, Omicron is infecting people who are double vaccinated. That is the new development which has been the driving force behind the fantastic NHS effort to get as many people boosted as quickly as possible.
This is the problem with too much reporting and discussion of the science of the pandemic. The immune system is a lot more complex than jus5 neutralising antibodies. Of course these decline after recovery from infection, or vaccination. You wouldn’t want the body endlessly churning out antibodies for everything it encounters - there would be a cost. Rather the immune system retains a memory of infection, and when needed can jump into action to produce the required cells to tackle the threat.
I know you mock the idea of an exit wave. But the wave is about the rise in cases that inevitably occur when restrictions are removed. They are the yin to the yang of infections falling when restrictions are applied. Yes, our wave of cases did not subside, but in terms of serious disease and death, the nation is vastly better off. In addition the extra infections, often to anti-Vaxers will be having an effect, certainly in serious outcomes,
@RochdalePioneers, I respect your knowledge of supply chains, and you speak eloquently about the issues we face in those fields. I fear you let yourself down a bit in your comments on the pandemic.
Basically I want a car, I would ideally never set foot in a garage, would prefer electric, will probably drive it a couple of times a week max.
The price of old cars is nonetheless rising, because the price of new cars is also rising exponentially.
You can also get an idea of battery condition by charging to 100% and see what range it predicts compared the the WLTP rating.
The big unknowns are the batteries, which deteriorate over time as well as with recharge cycles and mileage. Make sure the battery warranty covers your expected ownership of the car. Compare the range from fully-charged on the dashboard, with what it was when new. Dealers should be able to run a battery condition report, which you should always get from the seller even if private.
Early Teslas suffered horrendous build quality issues, and getting spare parts for them is expensive and can take time.
"Doesn't care much" for the vaccine or past infection means what it says. You don't get the same protection from being "fully vaccinated" or from having already had Covid as you did from previous variants.
You mention that I mock the idea of an exit wave then agree that it was not a wave or an exit. Again, if Omicron is significantly milder than Delta, and having Delta means that you can still catch Omicron, what was the point in exposing people to Delta? So that their experience of the milder strain is milder than the nastier strain they have just had?
I'm not making any case about the virus, but about your logic. I am qualified as a layperson to say "that makes no sense".
In recent years, the number of computers on a small city car is now what was on an S-Class of a decade ago. They’ve deliberately make the computers a pain in the arse to program, and the dealer’s computers are really expensive to reduce the supply of them at independent garages.
As Whitty et al keep pointing out, the risk is basic maths. A smaller percentage - those who will get very sick or die from Omicron- of a very large number is still a large enough number to be a major concern. And we are getting those very large numbers off the same exponential curve that various posters pointed at in places like Germany and said "thats what happens when you don't successfully have an exit wave as we did". And yet here we are. In the same place. With the same curve.
I think the thing we can all agree on is that the booster programme was 8 weeks late for mitigating the effects of a winter peak in admissions - whether that was delta, flu or a new variant.
You seem stuck in cases as the most important measure. In reality many of most of the 122K cases reported on Friday will be extremely mild, or at least will not require the use of the health service. For some, they will feel like shit, and say ‘this is not mild’. But they will have some poor days and get better.
We have never tested and reported daily flu infections. And you know, some people who take the flu jab get flu, but we don’t say it’s pointless.
I think you think you are making strong logical arguments, but it comes over more as Barack room lawyer.
To rebuild a country ravished by a pandemic, you need a leader with backbone, integrity, authenticity and a close relationship with the truth. Because these things matter. They have always mattered, but they matter in a fundamental way in a time of loss and sorrow.
Because the character of the nation matters, we need a person of character to rebuild the nation and to identify and embody the values and the truths laid bare by two years of loss and suffering.
That person is not Boris Johnson. We all know it. He knows it. Those propping up his ailing government with the plucky optimism of the deck chair attendant on the Titanic know it. This Hogmanay, the party really is over.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-cant-wallpaper-over-the-cracks-at-no-10-9n5277dtj