LDs come out against the UK trade deal with Australia and pitch a more protectionist message as they look for farmers' votes after the North Shropshire by election
It's a bad deal for farmers and one that can be 100% pinned on the Tory Party.
Expect a lot of similar items to be announced because there will be a lot of ammo available at the next election.
Not necessarily if farmers also expand their exports to Australia and removal of tariffs will be phased in anyway.
A complete change from 100 years ago though when it was the Liberals who were pure free traders and the Tories who often supported tariffs and protectionism.
For the LDs it seems free trade only applies with the EU
Are you utterly clueless.
Mrs Eek was chatting to a large landowner yesterday - their plan is to gut the farming and close farms as leases come to an end. Remaining farms will expand a bit and a lot of land will be left to rewild - because the new grant schemes make anything else utterly impossible.
And that's before Australia with it's even larger farmers way more efficient farms get started exporting to the UK.
One of the easiest votes for any opposition to win is going to be agricultural / rural voters and like a lot of things there is only one direction for the next few years as the reality hits home.
Remember you are sat in London Suburbia. Mrs Eek is driving round a national park talking to people farming for a living.
I'm failing to see the problem.
Agriculture provides 0.6% of GDP. It should sink or swim on its own merits, not be pandered to like Scargill trying to hold the rest of the country to ransom.
If you believe that British agriculture is of good quality then you should have every faith that it will swim and do even better going forwards. That can only be a good thing.
If you think its going to sink instead, then so be it. That's the free market working as intended and the land will still be available if anyone more efficient and productive wishes to use it instead.
I'm desperately hoping this is what it appears to be - Philip under a new name.
The alternative, 2 separate Philips, is a prospect not easily contemplated.
It is - he gave his reasons earlier in the thread.
Yep, saw that. He no longer wishes to post under his birth name of "Philip Thompson" and has thus transitioned for PB purposes to "Bartholomew Roberts".
I will respect this in accordance with my principles. He is from this point "Bartholomew" to me. Perhaps when we've had a few tumbles and established an awkward intimacy I will risk a "Barty".
Very woke of him, but sits ill with the assorted atrocities and all the other piracy.
Isn't that punching down against the Legally Challenged Community members of the sea-faring world?
Have you checked your privilege?
Not to mention the Welsh.
Simultaneously burning and drowning a shipload of enslaved people does count as punching down against Legally Challenged Community (albewit temporary) members of the sea-faring world.
According to some recent scholarship (ha ha ha) pirates were a rebellion against the hierarchical, hetro-normative patriarchal tyranny of the "normal" sea going world.
So they were the oppressed. And the oppressed can't really oppress other people - the apparent oppression is just false consciousness.
I've actually been reading up on the pirate era for a project. The average matelot did have a shitty time and it's not surprising some rebelled and went rogue. But if they didn't oppress other people (of various genders, colours, and social levels from Indian royalty to enslaved Africans) then I'm Chairperson of the Epping Tories.
Yes, they did have a shitty time. Indeed, until the squeeze of the Napoleonic Wars, the Royal Navy was a surprisingly good employer, compared to the merchant ships.
As to oppressed people oppressing others - yes, it's horseshit. But it is the same horseshit that is supposed to stop us asking about bad actions prevalent in any minority culture.
Congrats on being appointed new Chairperson of the Epping Tories. The keys to the tank are behind the picture of Maggie, over the bar.
What complicates things is the existence of privateers - effecxtively private warships licensed to attack ships of certain nationalities, or legalised pirates depending on one's point of view and nationality. Which could very easily slide into outright piracy.
Looks like a 1m+ day for vaccines overall today, I'm still very annoyed that we didn't throw the door open earlier. There has been essentially no new capacity added yet, just the effect of people queuing up and getting rid of the 15 minute observation period.
This doesn't match my observations and anecdotal reports (Cambridge area). In late November when bookings opened for 40+ it was pretty much impossible to book an appointment unless you were prepared to wait til January and/or travel 10 miles or more to a different town; and sometimes there were literally no bookings on offer at all. By early December things improved and at least some local bookings were available (this is when I got my booking in, after over a week checking the site until it showed something available). As of this week there's an entire new vaccination centre on the Addenbrookes site and a friend was able to book on Monday to get jabbed yesterday. This to me says that capacity has been being added and it's now much better than it was mid-November.
On the substantive point, I totally agree that they should have been ramping up the booster programme much earlier. "Should have done this sooner" is the overarching criticism you can apply to much of the govt's covid response...
Ok then, I’ll give you an answer that you didn’t ask for. It’s the precautionary principle in action. Taking action probably will reduce the spread, although I’d argue Christmas and human nature is already doing that. Other nations in the U.K. have taken the view that this is better on the whole than the damage that restrictions impose. That’s a judgement. They may be right. In England currently the decision is that there isn’t enough data to be sure that restrictions are needed. It’s possible that we won’t know until too late. But like weather forecasts, it’s not a good idea to call a result until we actually know who was right.
Yes, it's the same old restrictions or "lockdown just in case" mentality that we've been battling against for two years. Lockdown is the "break glass in case of emergencies" big red button that should be used only when it is absolutely necessary. Too many people see it as a cost free way of controlling the spread of COVID, even when there is a case to be made that we maybe shouldn't be controlling spread in a largely vaccinated population to get natural immunity built up in the won't vaccinate cohort.
It feels like too many scientists here, politicians across the whole of Europe (here and on the continent) simply don't see the cost of lockdown beyond having to borrow a bit of extra money to pay for support schemes. It's easy to deal with lockdown in a big house with a big garden, secure employment that can be done from home, an established social and family network who you see during lockdown ("but they're all in our bubble, why wouldn't we see them?"). The consideration given to people who aren't like them is tiny and the suffering that lockdown causes for younger less established people is untold, the damage it causes to children who have had their education fucked up for at least a year now is immeasurable.
What really annoyed me today when we went out for coffee with my sister and brother in law was the older couple in the cafe visibly upset at having four under 40s and two kids sitting indoors with them. It's as if the older generation think they're entitled to all of life's niceties while young people have to sacrifice "whatever it takes" (to borrow a phrase) to ensure they can live unencumbered by COVID.
You should have told them that you'd all had a positive test in the last week... bet they'd have scarpered out the door pretty sharpish then.
In all seriousness - totally agree. I'm governor of an inner city London primary where over 50% of pupils are Pupil Premium / English as a second language. The impact of lockdown on them, physically, emotionally, mentally, educationally, has been immense and almost all unseen.
More than 13 million residents in the Chinese city of Xi'an have been confined to their homes as officials implement a strict lockdown. Every two days, only one member of each household will be allowed outdoors to buy essentials.
Another entry for the "It is completely mysterious and deeply suspicious that China has stopped Covid spreading in the country" file.
You are surely not suggesting there may be some fiddling of the figures going on.....
More that some people still like to float the "it was a carefully released bioweapon by the Chinese to disrupt the West and the Chinese were completely prepared for it and had pre-vaccinated the whole population" conspiracy theory to explain why Covid isn't running rampant through China rather than the fact that they are completely willing to lockdown (and actually really lockdown) millions of people at a time when someone so much as coughs.
Does anybody who isn't totally nutty actually push that narrative. Which is obviously very different from the thought that the Chinese might have been playing fast and loose when it came to safety, bringing back bats from caves and perhaps doing some sort gain of function research and it leaked.
The assumption is that Johnsonism policies are actually popular
It's the assumption that Tory policies are popular. Simply change the figurehead and all will be fine. Lockdown or not is irrelevant in all this. Policies are bung huge amounts of cash to your mates and do what the heck you please. Tax the plebs till the pips squeak while handing out a little Maunday money back to the grateful peasantry.
The problem is that the Country wants 2 very different things
Down South where everything is fine - the country doesn't want money to be spent on anything Up North they know that money spent now will improve their lives and make things better in the future
Boris promised everything to both sets of people and now a decision has to be made as to which one should be kept happy - and it's looking increasingly likely that neither side are going to be happy.
And if it's Johnson's fate to go down in history (which he wants, I suspect) as a terrible warning (which he doesn't want, surely) then being a fable for why you can't have your cake and eat it is as useful a way as any.
The 2019 promise was extra spending without extra taxes. Somehow, Brexit and Foreign Aid cuts were going to pay for it all.
The reality by 2024 looks like being little or no extra spending with extra taxes. And whilst Covid hasn't helped, that was always likely because of inevitable increasing demands from pensions, health and social care.
The thing is - we could easily spend more money on infrastructure - it's capital investment and would generate a massive return if only the treasury actually looked at their railway / infrastructure models and removed the fundamental mistakes within them. (Note I know of the massive flaws in the railway models so suspect there are equally stupid ones elsewhere).
The issue is that Government spending is too high on day to day items and various mistakes mean we are still subsidising companies to employ workers on the minimum wage.
Mr. Lennon, was speaking to a friend of mine who has two young daughters. She made a similar sort of comment, saying it was relatively good for her youngest to have a sister, and that one of her friend's daughters (an only child) was socially a long way behind despite being the same age.
Looks like a 1m+ day for vaccines overall today, I'm still very annoyed that we didn't throw the door open earlier. There has been essentially no new capacity added yet, just the effect of people queuing up and getting rid of the 15 minute observation period.
This doesn't match my observations and anecdotal reports (Cambridge area). In late November when bookings opened for 40+ it was pretty much impossible to book an appointment unless you were prepared to wait til January and/or travel 10 miles or more to a different town; and sometimes there were literally no bookings on offer at all. By early December things improved and at least some local bookings were available (this is when I got my booking in, after over a week checking the site until it showed something available). As of this week there's an entire new vaccination centre on the Addenbrookes site and a friend was able to book on Monday to get jabbed yesterday. This to me says that capacity has been being added and it's now much better than it was mid-November.
On the substantive point, I totally agree that they should have been ramping up the booster programme much earlier. "Should have done this sooner" is the overarching criticism you can apply to much of the govt's covid response...
That was exactly my experience in the Cambridge area as well, as I mentioned on here a few times. No bookings anywhere nearby.
South Africa at the height of the pandemic was at Level 5 restrictions. Even with Omicron it has now made the decision to stay at Level 1. Omicron levels are now falling in Gauteng Province. Hospitalisations are finding patients don't require oxygen or ventilation.
Boris may yet get out of jail - if he was shown not to have panicked in the face of the advice from the wobbly scientists.
I'd rather we focused on the London data rather than SA. Should that be positive, hats off to Johnson's genius.
London hospital admissions for covid (not excluding incidentals, but excluding people who caught covid whilst in hospital so were already there for something else) -
128 126 117 120 147 157 155 164 157 168
that's for the 10th to the 19th of December.
Pretty paltry rise and even that is likely driven by incidentals as much as real covid illness.
Mechnical ventilation for Covid in London from 10th to 21st of Dec -
201 199 197 203 194 195 199 208 201 210 206 201
Unchanged.
Why then are mainland Europe, Scotland and Wales panicking unnecessarily, along with the majority of reputable scientists, oh, and Javid?
A genuine rhetorical question, I am not requesting an answer.
Quite - although if you properly want to weight the scales of expertise, you have to note the South African doctors were not considered brainless hicks in previous waves which they correctly identified as bad, and the US is not remotely reacting with panic (indeed barely reacting at all). Mainland Europe are clearly in a much worse position with existing delta waves in flight, so their hightened panic a bit more understandable even if it proves to be unnecessary.
56% of Britons have experienced food shortages? In 2021? I mean, Tesco substituted Amaretto mincemeat for ruby port minemeat in my delivery this week. So I suppose I can count myself among the 56%.
No barbecue beef Hula Hoops on the shelves today - AGAIN.
Other flavours available but that's only because nobody in their right mind likes Hulas in any other flavour but barbecue beef.
LDs come out against the UK trade deal with Australia and pitch a more protectionist message as they look for farmers' votes after the North Shropshire by election
It's a bad deal for farmers and one that can be 100% pinned on the Tory Party.
Expect a lot of similar items to be announced because there will be a lot of ammo available at the next election.
Not necessarily if farmers also expand their exports to Australia and removal of tariffs will be phased in anyway.
A complete change from 100 years ago though when it was the Liberals who were pure free traders and the Tories who often supported tariffs and protectionism.
For the LDs it seems free trade only applies with the EU
Are you utterly clueless.
Mrs Eek was chatting to a large landowner yesterday - their plan is to gut the farming and close farms as leases come to an end. Remaining farms will expand a bit and a lot of land will be left to rewild - because the new grant schemes make anything else utterly impossible.
And that's before Australia with it's even larger farmers way more efficient farms get started exporting to the UK.
One of the easiest votes for any opposition to win is going to be agricultural / rural voters and like a lot of things there is only one direction for the next few years as the reality hits home.
Remember you are sat in London Suburbia. Mrs Eek is driving round a national park talking to people farming for a living.
I'm failing to see the problem.
Agriculture provides 0.6% of GDP. It should sink or swim on its own merits, not be pandered to like Scargill trying to hold the rest of the country to ransom.
If you believe that British agriculture is of good quality then you should have every faith that it will swim and do even better going forwards. That can only be a good thing.
If you think its going to sink instead, then so be it. That's the free market working as intended and the land will still be available if anyone more efficient and productive wishes to use it instead.
I'm desperately hoping this is what it appears to be - Philip under a new name.
The alternative, 2 separate Philips, is a prospect not easily contemplated.
It is - he gave his reasons earlier in the thread.
Yep, saw that. He no longer wishes to post under his birth name of "Philip Thompson" and has thus transitioned for PB purposes to "Bartholomew Roberts".
I will respect this in accordance with my principles. He is from this point "Bartholomew" to me. Perhaps when we've had a few tumbles and established an awkward intimacy I will risk a "Barty".
Very woke of him, but sits ill with the assorted atrocities and all the other piracy.
Isn't that punching down against the Legally Challenged Community members of the sea-faring world?
Have you checked your privilege?
Not to mention the Welsh.
Simultaneously burning and drowning a shipload of enslaved people does count as punching down against Legally Challenged Community (albewit temporary) members of the sea-faring world.
According to some recent scholarship (ha ha ha) pirates were a rebellion against the hierarchical, hetro-normative patriarchal tyranny of the "normal" sea going world.
So they were the oppressed. And the oppressed can't really oppress other people - the apparent oppression is just false consciousness.
I've actually been reading up on the pirate era for a project. The average matelot did have a shitty time and it's not surprising some rebelled and went rogue. But if they didn't oppress other people (of various genders, colours, and social levels from Indian royalty to enslaved Africans) then I'm Chairperson of the Epping Tories.
Yes, they did have a shitty time. Indeed, until the squeeze of the Napoleonic Wars, the Royal Navy was a surprisingly good employer, compared to the merchant ships.
As to oppressed people oppressing others - yes, it's horseshit. But it is the same horseshit that is supposed to stop us asking about bad actions prevalent in any minority culture.
Congrats on being appointed new Chairperson of the Epping Tories. The keys to the tank are behind the picture of Maggie, over the bar.
What complicates things is the existence of privateers - effecxtively private warships licensed to attack ships of certain nationalities, or legalised pirates depending on one's point of view and nationality. Which could very easily slide into outright piracy.
Which is why they got banned as countries acquired standing navies large enough to police the oceans.
Still annoyed with Master and Commander - a razee* frigate as a privateer? really?
LDs come out against the UK trade deal with Australia and pitch a more protectionist message as they look for farmers' votes after the North Shropshire by election
It's a bad deal for farmers and one that can be 100% pinned on the Tory Party.
Expect a lot of similar items to be announced because there will be a lot of ammo available at the next election.
Not necessarily if farmers also expand their exports to Australia and removal of tariffs will be phased in anyway.
A complete change from 100 years ago though when it was the Liberals who were pure free traders and the Tories who often supported tariffs and protectionism.
For the LDs it seems free trade only applies with the EU
Are you utterly clueless.
Mrs Eek was chatting to a large landowner yesterday - their plan is to gut the farming and close farms as leases come to an end. Remaining farms will expand a bit and a lot of land will be left to rewild - because the new grant schemes make anything else utterly impossible.
And that's before Australia with it's even larger farmers way more efficient farms get started exporting to the UK.
One of the easiest votes for any opposition to win is going to be agricultural / rural voters and like a lot of things there is only one direction for the next few years as the reality hits home.
Remember you are sat in London Suburbia. Mrs Eek is driving round a national park talking to people farming for a living.
I'm failing to see the problem.
Agriculture provides 0.6% of GDP. It should sink or swim on its own merits, not be pandered to like Scargill trying to hold the rest of the country to ransom.
If you believe that British agriculture is of good quality then you should have every faith that it will swim and do even better going forwards. That can only be a good thing.
If you think its going to sink instead, then so be it. That's the free market working as intended and the land will still be available if anyone more efficient and productive wishes to use it instead.
I'm desperately hoping this is what it appears to be - Philip under a new name.
The alternative, 2 separate Philips, is a prospect not easily contemplated.
It is - he gave his reasons earlier in the thread.
Yep, saw that. He no longer wishes to post under his birth name of "Philip Thompson" and has thus transitioned for PB purposes to "Bartholomew Roberts".
I will respect this in accordance with my principles. He is from this point "Bartholomew" to me. Perhaps when we've had a few tumbles and established an awkward intimacy I will risk a "Barty".
Very woke of him, but sits ill with the assorted atrocities and all the other piracy.
Isn't that punching down against the Legally Challenged Community members of the sea-faring world?
Have you checked your privilege?
Not to mention the Welsh.
Simultaneously burning and drowning a shipload of enslaved people does count as punching down against Legally Challenged Community (albewit temporary) members of the sea-faring world.
According to some recent scholarship (ha ha ha) pirates were a rebellion against the hierarchical, hetro-normative patriarchal tyranny of the "normal" sea going world.
So they were the oppressed. And the oppressed can't really oppress other people - the apparent oppression is just false consciousness.
I've actually been reading up on the pirate era for a project. The average matelot did have a shitty time and it's not surprising some rebelled and went rogue. But if they didn't oppress other people (of various genders, colours, and social levels from Indian royalty to enslaved Africans) then I'm Chairperson of the Epping Tories.
Yes, they did have a shitty time. Indeed, until the squeeze of the Napoleonic Wars, the Royal Navy was a surprisingly good employer, compared to the merchant ships.
As to oppressed people oppressing others - yes, it's horseshit. But it is the same horseshit that is supposed to stop us asking about bad actions prevalent in any minority culture.
Congrats on being appointed new Chairperson of the Epping Tories. The keys to the tank are behind the picture of Maggie, over the bar.
What complicates things is the existence of privateers - effecxtively private warships licensed to attack ships of certain nationalities, or legalised pirates depending on one's point of view and nationality. Which could very easily slide into outright piracy.
Which is why they got banned as countries acquired standing navies large enough to police the oceans.
Still annoyed with Master and Commander - a razee* frigate as a privateer? really?
*Well, purpose built but like a razee
Film or book?
IIRC from the books the vessel was something of an anomaly anyway - too small to be a real frigate. So sold out of service.
Mr. Lennon, was speaking to a friend of mine who has two young daughters. She made a similar sort of comment, saying it was relatively good for her youngest to have a sister, and that one of her friend's daughters (an only child) was socially a long way behind despite being the same age.
Our youngest was the opposite, she was a very late bloomer speaking relative to her older sister and apparently that's not that unusual for younger siblings when both are of a similar age. The older sibling tends to dominate the speaking for both of them, so the younger sibling doesn't feel the 'need' to speak properly as soon.
Not having nursery or reception for two years certainly didn't help with that either.
More than 13 million residents in the Chinese city of Xi'an have been confined to their homes as officials implement a strict lockdown. Every two days, only one member of each household will be allowed outdoors to buy essentials.
Another entry for the "It is completely mysterious and deeply suspicious that China has stopped Covid spreading in the country" file.
You are surely not suggesting there may be some fiddling of the figures going on.....
More that some people still like to float the "it was a carefully released bioweapon by the Chinese to disrupt the West and the Chinese were completely prepared for it and had pre-vaccinated the whole population" conspiracy theory to explain why Covid isn't running rampant through China rather than the fact that they are completely willing to lockdown (and actually really lockdown) millions of people at a time when someone so much as coughs.
More than 13 million residents in the Chinese city of Xi'an have been confined to their homes as officials implement a strict lockdown. Every two days, only one member of each household will be allowed outdoors to buy essentials.
Another entry for the "It is completely mysterious and deeply suspicious that China has stopped Covid spreading in the country" file.
You are surely not suggesting there may be some fiddling of the figures going on.....
More that some people still like to float the "it was a carefully released bioweapon by the Chinese to disrupt the West and the Chinese were completely prepared for it and had pre-vaccinated the whole population" conspiracy theory to explain why Covid isn't running rampant through China rather than the fact that they are completely willing to lockdown (and actually really lockdown) millions of people at a time when someone so much as coughs.
I would be fascinated to know what's really going on in China. How many have really had it? How many have really died? What's the economy really doing? And so on.
Talking of conspiracy nutters....the #1 non-fiction book on Amazon.com, a dodgy hit piece on Dr Fauci written by an anti-vaxxer conspiracy theorist. God wept in the Land of the Free.
LDs come out against the UK trade deal with Australia and pitch a more protectionist message as they look for farmers' votes after the North Shropshire by election
It's a bad deal for farmers and one that can be 100% pinned on the Tory Party.
Expect a lot of similar items to be announced because there will be a lot of ammo available at the next election.
Not necessarily if farmers also expand their exports to Australia and removal of tariffs will be phased in anyway.
A complete change from 100 years ago though when it was the Liberals who were pure free traders and the Tories who often supported tariffs and protectionism.
For the LDs it seems free trade only applies with the EU
Are you utterly clueless.
Mrs Eek was chatting to a large landowner yesterday - their plan is to gut the farming and close farms as leases come to an end. Remaining farms will expand a bit and a lot of land will be left to rewild - because the new grant schemes make anything else utterly impossible.
And that's before Australia with it's even larger farmers way more efficient farms get started exporting to the UK.
One of the easiest votes for any opposition to win is going to be agricultural / rural voters and like a lot of things there is only one direction for the next few years as the reality hits home.
Remember you are sat in London Suburbia. Mrs Eek is driving round a national park talking to people farming for a living.
I'm failing to see the problem.
Agriculture provides 0.6% of GDP. It should sink or swim on its own merits, not be pandered to like Scargill trying to hold the rest of the country to ransom.
If you believe that British agriculture is of good quality then you should have every faith that it will swim and do even better going forwards. That can only be a good thing.
If you think its going to sink instead, then so be it. That's the free market working as intended and the land will still be available if anyone more efficient and productive wishes to use it instead.
I'm desperately hoping this is what it appears to be - Philip under a new name.
The alternative, 2 separate Philips, is a prospect not easily contemplated.
It is - he gave his reasons earlier in the thread.
Yep, saw that. He no longer wishes to post under his birth name of "Philip Thompson" and has thus transitioned for PB purposes to "Bartholomew Roberts".
I will respect this in accordance with my principles. He is from this point "Bartholomew" to me. Perhaps when we've had a few tumbles and established an awkward intimacy I will risk a "Barty".
Very woke of him, but sits ill with the assorted atrocities and all the other piracy.
Isn't that punching down against the Legally Challenged Community members of the sea-faring world?
Have you checked your privilege?
Not to mention the Welsh.
Simultaneously burning and drowning a shipload of enslaved people does count as punching down against Legally Challenged Community (albewit temporary) members of the sea-faring world.
According to some recent scholarship (ha ha ha) pirates were a rebellion against the hierarchical, hetro-normative patriarchal tyranny of the "normal" sea going world.
So they were the oppressed. And the oppressed can't really oppress other people - the apparent oppression is just false consciousness.
I've actually been reading up on the pirate era for a project. The average matelot did have a shitty time and it's not surprising some rebelled and went rogue. But if they didn't oppress other people (of various genders, colours, and social levels from Indian royalty to enslaved Africans) then I'm Chairperson of the Epping Tories.
Yes, they did have a shitty time. Indeed, until the squeeze of the Napoleonic Wars, the Royal Navy was a surprisingly good employer, compared to the merchant ships.
As to oppressed people oppressing others - yes, it's horseshit. But it is the same horseshit that is supposed to stop us asking about bad actions prevalent in any minority culture.
Congrats on being appointed new Chairperson of the Epping Tories. The keys to the tank are behind the picture of Maggie, over the bar.
What complicates things is the existence of privateers - effecxtively private warships licensed to attack ships of certain nationalities, or legalised pirates depending on one's point of view and nationality. Which could very easily slide into outright piracy.
Which is why they got banned as countries acquired standing navies large enough to police the oceans.
Still annoyed with Master and Commander - a razee* frigate as a privateer? really?
*Well, purpose built but like a razee
PS Something of the privateer has arisen again - anti piracy (Iike some of the originals of c. 1690s) off the Horn of Africa I believe.
LDs come out against the UK trade deal with Australia and pitch a more protectionist message as they look for farmers' votes after the North Shropshire by election
It's a bad deal for farmers and one that can be 100% pinned on the Tory Party.
Expect a lot of similar items to be announced because there will be a lot of ammo available at the next election.
Not necessarily if farmers also expand their exports to Australia and removal of tariffs will be phased in anyway.
A complete change from 100 years ago though when it was the Liberals who were pure free traders and the Tories who often supported tariffs and protectionism.
For the LDs it seems free trade only applies with the EU
Are you utterly clueless.
Mrs Eek was chatting to a large landowner yesterday - their plan is to gut the farming and close farms as leases come to an end. Remaining farms will expand a bit and a lot of land will be left to rewild - because the new grant schemes make anything else utterly impossible.
And that's before Australia with it's even larger farmers way more efficient farms get started exporting to the UK.
One of the easiest votes for any opposition to win is going to be agricultural / rural voters and like a lot of things there is only one direction for the next few years as the reality hits home.
Remember you are sat in London Suburbia. Mrs Eek is driving round a national park talking to people farming for a living.
I'm failing to see the problem.
Agriculture provides 0.6% of GDP. It should sink or swim on its own merits, not be pandered to like Scargill trying to hold the rest of the country to ransom.
If you believe that British agriculture is of good quality then you should have every faith that it will swim and do even better going forwards. That can only be a good thing.
If you think its going to sink instead, then so be it. That's the free market working as intended and the land will still be available if anyone more efficient and productive wishes to use it instead.
I'm desperately hoping this is what it appears to be - Philip under a new name.
The alternative, 2 separate Philips, is a prospect not easily contemplated.
It is - he gave his reasons earlier in the thread.
Yep, saw that. He no longer wishes to post under his birth name of "Philip Thompson" and has thus transitioned for PB purposes to "Bartholomew Roberts".
I will respect this in accordance with my principles. He is from this point "Bartholomew" to me. Perhaps when we've had a few tumbles and established an awkward intimacy I will risk a "Barty".
Very woke of him, but sits ill with the assorted atrocities and all the other piracy.
Isn't that punching down against the Legally Challenged Community members of the sea-faring world?
Have you checked your privilege?
Not to mention the Welsh.
Simultaneously burning and drowning a shipload of enslaved people does count as punching down against Legally Challenged Community (albewit temporary) members of the sea-faring world.
According to some recent scholarship (ha ha ha) pirates were a rebellion against the hierarchical, hetro-normative patriarchal tyranny of the "normal" sea going world.
So they were the oppressed. And the oppressed can't really oppress other people - the apparent oppression is just false consciousness.
I've actually been reading up on the pirate era for a project. The average matelot did have a shitty time and it's not surprising some rebelled and went rogue. But if they didn't oppress other people (of various genders, colours, and social levels from Indian royalty to enslaved Africans) then I'm Chairperson of the Epping Tories.
Yes, they did have a shitty time. Indeed, until the squeeze of the Napoleonic Wars, the Royal Navy was a surprisingly good employer, compared to the merchant ships.
As to oppressed people oppressing others - yes, it's horseshit. But it is the same horseshit that is supposed to stop us asking about bad actions prevalent in any minority culture.
Congrats on being appointed new Chairperson of the Epping Tories. The keys to the tank are behind the picture of Maggie, over the bar.
What complicates things is the existence of privateers - effecxtively private warships licensed to attack ships of certain nationalities, or legalised pirates depending on one's point of view and nationality. Which could very easily slide into outright piracy.
Which is why they got banned as countries acquired standing navies large enough to police the oceans.
Still annoyed with Master and Commander - a razee* frigate as a privateer? really?
*Well, purpose built but like a razee
Film or book?
IIRC the vessel was something of an anomaly anyway - too small to be a real frigate.
In the film - the ship they are chasing was done from a computer model of an American super frigate.
The book would have been superb as a film. Opening with the concert at Malta, the near duel, the farcical nature of Aubrey's behaviour vs his success, his Irish first's divided loyalties....
In the books they the author jumped through various hoops to keep Aubrey in an out-of-date 28 for so long.
Looks like a 1m+ day for vaccines overall today, I'm still very annoyed that we didn't throw the door open earlier. There has been essentially no new capacity added yet, just the effect of people queuing up and getting rid of the 15 minute observation period.
This doesn't match my observations and anecdotal reports (Cambridge area). In late November when bookings opened for 40+ it was pretty much impossible to book an appointment unless you were prepared to wait til January and/or travel 10 miles or more to a different town; and sometimes there were literally no bookings on offer at all. By early December things improved and at least some local bookings were available (this is when I got my booking in, after over a week checking the site until it showed something available). As of this week there's an entire new vaccination centre on the Addenbrookes site and a friend was able to book on Monday to get jabbed yesterday. This to me says that capacity has been being added and it's now much better than it was mid-November.
On the substantive point, I totally agree that they should have been ramping up the booster programme much earlier. "Should have done this sooner" is the overarching criticism you can apply to much of the govt's covid response...
That's good news, my understanding is that appointment availability started to increase because the people queuing had their appointments cancelled as soon as their NHS number was registered with a third dose, case in point, my wife and I had appointments booked for last Friday, but we went and queued up on the Monday so our appointments got cancelled on Tuesday morning.
I'm sure in Cambridge and other areas some capacity has been added too, but the vast majority of the gain in numbers is from getting everyone to simply queue up and waiting. Capacity utilisation has increased to nearly 100% per day, if we'd had that for the whole of December we'd have done an extra 8-10m doses. The threat of Omicron would be greatly reduced and we'd be pretty relaxed about January with just 3-4m boosters to get done for people who got COVID in December and weren't eligible.
LDs come out against the UK trade deal with Australia and pitch a more protectionist message as they look for farmers' votes after the North Shropshire by election
It's a bad deal for farmers and one that can be 100% pinned on the Tory Party.
Expect a lot of similar items to be announced because there will be a lot of ammo available at the next election.
Not necessarily if farmers also expand their exports to Australia and removal of tariffs will be phased in anyway.
A complete change from 100 years ago though when it was the Liberals who were pure free traders and the Tories who often supported tariffs and protectionism.
For the LDs it seems free trade only applies with the EU
Are you utterly clueless.
Mrs Eek was chatting to a large landowner yesterday - their plan is to gut the farming and close farms as leases come to an end. Remaining farms will expand a bit and a lot of land will be left to rewild - because the new grant schemes make anything else utterly impossible.
And that's before Australia with it's even larger farmers way more efficient farms get started exporting to the UK.
One of the easiest votes for any opposition to win is going to be agricultural / rural voters and like a lot of things there is only one direction for the next few years as the reality hits home.
Remember you are sat in London Suburbia. Mrs Eek is driving round a national park talking to people farming for a living.
I'm failing to see the problem.
Agriculture provides 0.6% of GDP. It should sink or swim on its own merits, not be pandered to like Scargill trying to hold the rest of the country to ransom.
If you believe that British agriculture is of good quality then you should have every faith that it will swim and do even better going forwards. That can only be a good thing.
If you think its going to sink instead, then so be it. That's the free market working as intended and the land will still be available if anyone more efficient and productive wishes to use it instead.
I'm desperately hoping this is what it appears to be - Philip under a new name.
The alternative, 2 separate Philips, is a prospect not easily contemplated.
It is - he gave his reasons earlier in the thread.
Yep, saw that. He no longer wishes to post under his birth name of "Philip Thompson" and has thus transitioned for PB purposes to "Bartholomew Roberts".
I will respect this in accordance with my principles. He is from this point "Bartholomew" to me. Perhaps when we've had a few tumbles and established an awkward intimacy I will risk a "Barty".
Very woke of him, but sits ill with the assorted atrocities and all the other piracy.
Isn't that punching down against the Legally Challenged Community members of the sea-faring world?
Have you checked your privilege?
Not to mention the Welsh.
Simultaneously burning and drowning a shipload of enslaved people does count as punching down against Legally Challenged Community (albewit temporary) members of the sea-faring world.
According to some recent scholarship (ha ha ha) pirates were a rebellion against the hierarchical, hetro-normative patriarchal tyranny of the "normal" sea going world.
So they were the oppressed. And the oppressed can't really oppress other people - the apparent oppression is just false consciousness.
I've actually been reading up on the pirate era for a project. The average matelot did have a shitty time and it's not surprising some rebelled and went rogue. But if they didn't oppress other people (of various genders, colours, and social levels from Indian royalty to enslaved Africans) then I'm Chairperson of the Epping Tories.
Yes, they did have a shitty time. Indeed, until the squeeze of the Napoleonic Wars, the Royal Navy was a surprisingly good employer, compared to the merchant ships.
As to oppressed people oppressing others - yes, it's horseshit. But it is the same horseshit that is supposed to stop us asking about bad actions prevalent in any minority culture.
Congrats on being appointed new Chairperson of the Epping Tories. The keys to the tank are behind the picture of Maggie, over the bar.
What complicates things is the existence of privateers - effecxtively private warships licensed to attack ships of certain nationalities, or legalised pirates depending on one's point of view and nationality. Which could very easily slide into outright piracy.
Weren't Drake and Hawkins privateers? Bit like being in the TA..... called up when needed!
South Africa at the height of the pandemic was at Level 5 restrictions. Even with Omicron it has now made the decision to stay at Level 1. Omicron levels are now falling in Gauteng Province. Hospitalisations are finding patients don't require oxygen or ventilation.
Boris may yet get out of jail - if he was shown not to have panicked in the face of the advice from the wobbly scientists.
I'd rather we focused on the London data rather than SA. Should that be positive, hats off to Johnson's genius.
London hospital admissions for covid (not excluding incidentals, but excluding people who caught covid whilst in hospital so were already there for something else) -
128 126 117 120 147 157 155 164 157 168
that's for the 10th to the 19th of December.
Pretty paltry rise and even that is likely driven by incidentals as much as real covid illness.
Mechnical ventilation for Covid in London from 10th to 21st of Dec -
201 199 197 203 194 195 199 208 201 210 206 201
Unchanged.
Why then are mainland Europe, Scotland and Wales panicking unnecessarily, along with the majority of reputable scientists, oh, and Javid?
A genuine rhetorical question, I am not requesting an answer.
In the case of some chunks of Europe,
1) They have large numbers of elderly people with no vaccinations. 2) Since the Winnie-The-Pooh variant is so transmissible, everyone will either get immunity from it from vaccination or get it the disease itself. 3) If large numbers of elderly, unvaccinated people get COVID, many will be hospitalised and many will die. 4) Because of the speed of transmission, this many happen in a very short space of time.
OK, a supplementary rhetorical question for which I am not expecting an answer. Why are the NHS allegedly setting up temporary hospitals (Guardian) on NHS premises?
South Africa at the height of the pandemic was at Level 5 restrictions. Even with Omicron it has now made the decision to stay at Level 1. Omicron levels are now falling in Gauteng Province. Hospitalisations are finding patients don't require oxygen or ventilation.
Boris may yet get out of jail - if he was shown not to have panicked in the face of the advice from the wobbly scientists.
I'd prefer if we focused on the London data rather than SA. Should that be positive, hats off to Johnson's genius.
Check the cases in hospital and numbers being ventilated graph. By beginning of December the number of cases had doubled, we should expect to see a large uptick in severe cases now. Not really there thus far.
Have to be pretty careful with the 'in hospital' figure given the strong evidence (tbc tomorrow noon) that it's been driven by incidental admissions/statistical transfers.
Big fall in cases and deaths in Scotland today (halved) - data cock up?
* Public Health Scotland (PHS) are aware that today’s reported positive case numbers are lower than expected. PHS are investigating this, and will provide updates in future reports.
South Africa at the height of the pandemic was at Level 5 restrictions. Even with Omicron it has now made the decision to stay at Level 1. Omicron levels are now falling in Gauteng Province. Hospitalisations are finding patients don't require oxygen or ventilation.
Boris may yet get out of jail - if he was shown not to have panicked in the face of the advice from the wobbly scientists.
I'd rather we focused on the London data rather than SA. Should that be positive, hats off to Johnson's genius.
London hospital admissions for covid (not excluding incidentals, but excluding people who caught covid whilst in hospital so were already there for something else) -
128 126 117 120 147 157 155 164 157 168
that's for the 10th to the 19th of December.
Pretty paltry rise and even that is likely driven by incidentals as much as real covid illness.
Mechnical ventilation for Covid in London from 10th to 21st of Dec -
201 199 197 203 194 195 199 208 201 210 206 201
Unchanged.
Why then are mainland Europe, Scotland and Wales panicking unnecessarily, along with the majority of reputable scientists, oh, and Javid?
A genuine rhetorical question, I am not requesting an answer.
In the case of some chunks of Europe,
1) They have large numbers of elderly people with no vaccinations. 2) Since the Winnie-The-Pooh variant is so transmissible, everyone will either get immunity from it from vaccination or get it the disease itself. 3) If large numbers of elderly, unvaccinated people get COVID, many will be hospitalised and many will die. 4) Because of the speed of transmission, this many happen in a very short space of time.
OK, a supplementary rhetorical question for which I am not expecting an answer. Why are the NHS allegedly setting up temporary hospitals (Guardian) on NHS premises?
Overflow planning - bit like the original Nightingales?
LDs come out against the UK trade deal with Australia and pitch a more protectionist message as they look for farmers' votes after the North Shropshire by election
It's a bad deal for farmers and one that can be 100% pinned on the Tory Party.
Expect a lot of similar items to be announced because there will be a lot of ammo available at the next election.
Not necessarily if farmers also expand their exports to Australia and removal of tariffs will be phased in anyway.
A complete change from 100 years ago though when it was the Liberals who were pure free traders and the Tories who often supported tariffs and protectionism.
For the LDs it seems free trade only applies with the EU
Are you utterly clueless.
Mrs Eek was chatting to a large landowner yesterday - their plan is to gut the farming and close farms as leases come to an end. Remaining farms will expand a bit and a lot of land will be left to rewild - because the new grant schemes make anything else utterly impossible.
And that's before Australia with it's even larger farmers way more efficient farms get started exporting to the UK.
One of the easiest votes for any opposition to win is going to be agricultural / rural voters and like a lot of things there is only one direction for the next few years as the reality hits home.
Remember you are sat in London Suburbia. Mrs Eek is driving round a national park talking to people farming for a living.
I'm failing to see the problem.
Agriculture provides 0.6% of GDP. It should sink or swim on its own merits, not be pandered to like Scargill trying to hold the rest of the country to ransom.
If you believe that British agriculture is of good quality then you should have every faith that it will swim and do even better going forwards. That can only be a good thing.
If you think its going to sink instead, then so be it. That's the free market working as intended and the land will still be available if anyone more efficient and productive wishes to use it instead.
I'm desperately hoping this is what it appears to be - Philip under a new name.
The alternative, 2 separate Philips, is a prospect not easily contemplated.
It is - he gave his reasons earlier in the thread.
Yep, saw that. He no longer wishes to post under his birth name of "Philip Thompson" and has thus transitioned for PB purposes to "Bartholomew Roberts".
I will respect this in accordance with my principles. He is from this point "Bartholomew" to me. Perhaps when we've had a few tumbles and established an awkward intimacy I will risk a "Barty".
Very woke of him, but sits ill with the assorted atrocities and all the other piracy.
Isn't that punching down against the Legally Challenged Community members of the sea-faring world?
Have you checked your privilege?
Not to mention the Welsh.
Simultaneously burning and drowning a shipload of enslaved people does count as punching down against Legally Challenged Community (albewit temporary) members of the sea-faring world.
According to some recent scholarship (ha ha ha) pirates were a rebellion against the hierarchical, hetro-normative patriarchal tyranny of the "normal" sea going world.
So they were the oppressed. And the oppressed can't really oppress other people - the apparent oppression is just false consciousness.
I've actually been reading up on the pirate era for a project. The average matelot did have a shitty time and it's not surprising some rebelled and went rogue. But if they didn't oppress other people (of various genders, colours, and social levels from Indian royalty to enslaved Africans) then I'm Chairperson of the Epping Tories.
Yes, they did have a shitty time. Indeed, until the squeeze of the Napoleonic Wars, the Royal Navy was a surprisingly good employer, compared to the merchant ships.
As to oppressed people oppressing others - yes, it's horseshit. But it is the same horseshit that is supposed to stop us asking about bad actions prevalent in any minority culture.
Congrats on being appointed new Chairperson of the Epping Tories. The keys to the tank are behind the picture of Maggie, over the bar.
What complicates things is the existence of privateers - effecxtively private warships licensed to attack ships of certain nationalities, or legalised pirates depending on one's point of view and nationality. Which could very easily slide into outright piracy.
Which is why they got banned as countries acquired standing navies large enough to police the oceans.
Still annoyed with Master and Commander - a razee* frigate as a privateer? really?
*Well, purpose built but like a razee
Film or book?
IIRC the vessel was something of an anomaly anyway - too small to be a real frigate.
In the film - the ship they are chasing was done from a computer model of an American super frigate.
The book would have been superb as a film. Opening with the concert at Malta, the near duel, the farcical nature of Aubrey's behaviour vs his success, his Irish first's divided loyalties....
In the books they the author jumped through various hoops to keep Aubrey in an out-of-date 28 for so long.
I'd never actually checked the vessel used for the films, so did so:
Looks like a 1m+ day for vaccines overall today, I'm still very annoyed that we didn't throw the door open earlier. There has been essentially no new capacity added yet, just the effect of people queuing up and getting rid of the 15 minute observation period.
This doesn't match my observations and anecdotal reports (Cambridge area). In late November when bookings opened for 40+ it was pretty much impossible to book an appointment unless you were prepared to wait til January and/or travel 10 miles or more to a different town; and sometimes there were literally no bookings on offer at all. By early December things improved and at least some local bookings were available (this is when I got my booking in, after over a week checking the site until it showed something available). As of this week there's an entire new vaccination centre on the Addenbrookes site and a friend was able to book on Monday to get jabbed yesterday. This to me says that capacity has been being added and it's now much better than it was mid-November.
On the substantive point, I totally agree that they should have been ramping up the booster programme much earlier. "Should have done this sooner" is the overarching criticism you can apply to much of the govt's covid response...
That's good news, my understanding is that appointment availability started to increase because the people queuing had their appointments cancelled as soon as their NHS number was registered with a third dose, case in point, my wife and I had appointments booked for last Friday, but we went and queued up on the Monday so our appointments got cancelled on Tuesday morning.
I'm sure in Cambridge and other areas some capacity has been added too, but the vast majority of the gain in numbers is from getting everyone to simply queue up and wait. Capacity utilisation has increased to nearly 100% per day, if we'd had that for the whole of December we'd have done an extra 8-10m doses. The threat of Omicron would be greatly reduced and we'd be pretty relaxed about January with just 3-4m boosters to get done for people who got COVID in December and weren't eligible.
As I understand it there have been between 100 and 200 new sites provisioned very recently (I have some inside knowledge here). Some only opened on Friday. All a bit last minute...
They come with a massive asterisk next to them saying Public Health Scotland are trying to work out why the number is banjoed.
So that's the UK figure going to be about 3-4k lower than it "should" be today
Well, it's only 2.5k down on last week so perhaps not that understated - as we now start lapping the big rises it's still tbc whether or not cases head on up higher, plateau, or start falling with an xmas testing tail off.
Dec 17 - Nicola Sturgeon asked about cutting self-isolation time. Reply: “Yeah, that would really help because that would spread infection even further.”
Dec 22 - John Swinney says self-isolation changes being considered.
Dec 17 - Nicola Sturgeon ridicules idea of finding more business support cash from her Budget in answer to Press Q. “I don't know where you think I should take it from? The health service?"
Dec 21 - Ms Sturgeon announces “a further £100 million from elsewhere in our budget”
Dec 18 - Nicola Sturgeon rubbishes Herald on Sunday front page about recall of parliament between Christmas New Year. Prompts 5.3k likes, accusations of "media lies", "bullshit", etc
Dec 21 - It’s confirmed Parliament is to be recalled between Christmas and New Year
I actually think the Labour score on the latest YouGov poll (36%) is pretty disappointing, with the Tory score down as low as 30%.
However, my disappointment is tempered by seeing LD/Greens on a combined 20%; I don't think many of them will go (back) to Tories. So if I were a Tory I'd be pretty anxious.
My reluctantly held but oft propounded theory of a high floor to Con support - due to Brexit and Culture War issues - has been holed below the waterline. I wave it goodbye with head a little clearer and a heart much lightened.
YouGov consistently has a higher Green score than anyone else - who knows why! It shows 9% of 2019 Labour voters shifting to them - but I'd think a chunk of those will return in marginal Con-Lab seats. I know several in SW Surrey who was they'll vote Green as CStarmer is too centrist for them, but they all but one say they'd vote Labour in a marginal.
The drop in Tory share in Scotland in recent polls is particularly striking - as Stuart speculates, this may be tactical unwind from Lab/Lib voters going home. The North seems to have swung more than most back to Labour, too, though I'm not sure if the YouGov regions exactly match those in 2019 election surveys.
All that said, I'm amused by the change of mood from "Is Labour finished forever?" a few months ago to "Is Labour's win inevitable?" now. The Tories are finally deep in mid-term trouble, but I'm not counting any chickens yet.
South Africa at the height of the pandemic was at Level 5 restrictions. Even with Omicron it has now made the decision to stay at Level 1. Omicron levels are now falling in Gauteng Province. Hospitalisations are finding patients don't require oxygen or ventilation.
Boris may yet get out of jail - if he was shown not to have panicked in the face of the advice from the wobbly scientists.
I'd rather we focused on the London data rather than SA. Should that be positive, hats off to Johnson's genius.
London hospital admissions for covid (not excluding incidentals, but excluding people who caught covid whilst in hospital so were already there for something else) -
128 126 117 120 147 157 155 164 157 168
that's for the 10th to the 19th of December.
Pretty paltry rise and even that is likely driven by incidentals as much as real covid illness.
Mechnical ventilation for Covid in London from 10th to 21st of Dec -
201 199 197 203 194 195 199 208 201 210 206 201
Unchanged.
Why then are mainland Europe, Scotland and Wales panicking unnecessarily, along with the majority of reputable scientists, oh, and Javid?
A genuine rhetorical question, I am not requesting an answer.
In the case of some chunks of Europe,
1) They have large numbers of elderly people with no vaccinations. 2) Since the Winnie-The-Pooh variant is so transmissible, everyone will either get immunity from it from vaccination or get it the disease itself. 3) If large numbers of elderly, unvaccinated people get COVID, many will be hospitalised and many will die. 4) Because of the speed of transmission, this many happen in a very short space of time.
OK, a supplementary rhetorical question for which I am not expecting an answer. Why are the NHS allegedly setting up temporary hospitals (Guardian) on NHS premises?
Overflow planning - bit like the original Nightingales?
South Africa at the height of the pandemic was at Level 5 restrictions. Even with Omicron it has now made the decision to stay at Level 1. Omicron levels are now falling in Gauteng Province. Hospitalisations are finding patients don't require oxygen or ventilation.
Boris may yet get out of jail - if he was shown not to have panicked in the face of the advice from the wobbly scientists.
I'd prefer if we focused on the London data rather than SA. Should that be positive, hats off to Johnson's genius.
Check the cases in hospital and numbers being ventilated graph. By beginning of December the number of cases had doubled, we should expect to see a large uptick in severe cases now. Not really there thus far.
Have to be pretty careful with the 'in hospital' figure given the strong evidence (tbc tomorrow noon) that it's been driven by incidental admissions/statistical transfers.
The numbers in hospital seem roughly in line with the growth in case numbers!
Do we have figures for those on oxygen as you do with South Africa?
LDs come out against the UK trade deal with Australia and pitch a more protectionist message as they look for farmers' votes after the North Shropshire by election
It's a bad deal for farmers and one that can be 100% pinned on the Tory Party.
Expect a lot of similar items to be announced because there will be a lot of ammo available at the next election.
Not necessarily if farmers also expand their exports to Australia and removal of tariffs will be phased in anyway.
A complete change from 100 years ago though when it was the Liberals who were pure free traders and the Tories who often supported tariffs and protectionism.
For the LDs it seems free trade only applies with the EU
Are you utterly clueless.
Mrs Eek was chatting to a large landowner yesterday - their plan is to gut the farming and close farms as leases come to an end. Remaining farms will expand a bit and a lot of land will be left to rewild - because the new grant schemes make anything else utterly impossible.
And that's before Australia with it's even larger farmers way more efficient farms get started exporting to the UK.
One of the easiest votes for any opposition to win is going to be agricultural / rural voters and like a lot of things there is only one direction for the next few years as the reality hits home.
Remember you are sat in London Suburbia. Mrs Eek is driving round a national park talking to people farming for a living.
I'm failing to see the problem.
Agriculture provides 0.6% of GDP. It should sink or swim on its own merits, not be pandered to like Scargill trying to hold the rest of the country to ransom.
If you believe that British agriculture is of good quality then you should have every faith that it will swim and do even better going forwards. That can only be a good thing.
If you think its going to sink instead, then so be it. That's the free market working as intended and the land will still be available if anyone more efficient and productive wishes to use it instead.
I'm desperately hoping this is what it appears to be - Philip under a new name.
The alternative, 2 separate Philips, is a prospect not easily contemplated.
It is - he gave his reasons earlier in the thread.
Yep, saw that. He no longer wishes to post under his birth name of "Philip Thompson" and has thus transitioned for PB purposes to "Bartholomew Roberts".
I will respect this in accordance with my principles. He is from this point "Bartholomew" to me. Perhaps when we've had a few tumbles and established an awkward intimacy I will risk a "Barty".
Very woke of him, but sits ill with the assorted atrocities and all the other piracy.
Isn't that punching down against the Legally Challenged Community members of the sea-faring world?
Have you checked your privilege?
Not to mention the Welsh.
Simultaneously burning and drowning a shipload of enslaved people does count as punching down against Legally Challenged Community (albewit temporary) members of the sea-faring world.
According to some recent scholarship (ha ha ha) pirates were a rebellion against the hierarchical, hetro-normative patriarchal tyranny of the "normal" sea going world.
So they were the oppressed. And the oppressed can't really oppress other people - the apparent oppression is just false consciousness.
I've actually been reading up on the pirate era for a project. The average matelot did have a shitty time and it's not surprising some rebelled and went rogue. But if they didn't oppress other people (of various genders, colours, and social levels from Indian royalty to enslaved Africans) then I'm Chairperson of the Epping Tories.
Yes, they did have a shitty time. Indeed, until the squeeze of the Napoleonic Wars, the Royal Navy was a surprisingly good employer, compared to the merchant ships.
As to oppressed people oppressing others - yes, it's horseshit. But it is the same horseshit that is supposed to stop us asking about bad actions prevalent in any minority culture.
Congrats on being appointed new Chairperson of the Epping Tories. The keys to the tank are behind the picture of Maggie, over the bar.
What complicates things is the existence of privateers - effecxtively private warships licensed to attack ships of certain nationalities, or legalised pirates depending on one's point of view and nationality. Which could very easily slide into outright piracy.
Weren't Drake and Hawkins privateers? Bit like being in the TA..... called up when needed!
Not quitefair to the TA who don't (so far as I know) spend their time robbing banks in hostile states. And the modern sense of the privateer didn't - I think I read - exist till the codifications of the English and Dutch after 1688 as part of the wars of the time, against enemy trade. It was more that D & H were at times deniable - legally pirates - but HMtQ got her thinly disguised cut. No wonder Philip of Span blew a gasket and sent the Armada.
Talking of conspiracy nutters....the #1 non-fiction book on Amazon.com, a dodgy hit piece on Dr Fauci written by an anti-vaxxer conspiracy theorist. God wept in the Land of the Free.
Fauci is extremely dodgy, tho, it’s not conspiracy theory nonsense
He is deeply implicated in the original Lancet/Daszak cover-up: the brazen and initially successful attempt to get “lab leak” deemed racist and thus beyond the pale of acceptable debate. Incredible to think that FOR A YEAR simply discussing this hypothesis was prohibited on Facebook and Twitter.
Why did Fauci conspire to get this hypothesis silenced? Because he funded the ecohealth/Daszak Gain of Function research on coronaviruses at Wuhan, research which was illegal in the USA (banned by Obama)
None of this is disputed. It’s all on the record. Fauci lied about it then fessed up
South Africa at the height of the pandemic was at Level 5 restrictions. Even with Omicron it has now made the decision to stay at Level 1. Omicron levels are now falling in Gauteng Province. Hospitalisations are finding patients don't require oxygen or ventilation.
Boris may yet get out of jail - if he was shown not to have panicked in the face of the advice from the wobbly scientists.
I'd rather we focused on the London data rather than SA. Should that be positive, hats off to Johnson's genius.
London hospital admissions for covid (not excluding incidentals, but excluding people who caught covid whilst in hospital so were already there for something else) -
128 126 117 120 147 157 155 164 157 168
that's for the 10th to the 19th of December.
Pretty paltry rise and even that is likely driven by incidentals as much as real covid illness.
Mechnical ventilation for Covid in London from 10th to 21st of Dec -
201 199 197 203 194 195 199 208 201 210 206 201
Unchanged.
Why then are mainland Europe, Scotland and Wales panicking unnecessarily, along with the majority of reputable scientists, oh, and Javid?
A genuine rhetorical question, I am not requesting an answer.
In the case of some chunks of Europe,
1) They have large numbers of elderly people with no vaccinations. 2) Since the Winnie-The-Pooh variant is so transmissible, everyone will either get immunity from it from vaccination or get it the disease itself. 3) If large numbers of elderly, unvaccinated people get COVID, many will be hospitalised and many will die. 4) Because of the speed of transmission, this many happen in a very short space of time.
OK, a supplementary rhetorical question for which I am not expecting an answer. Why are the NHS allegedly setting up temporary hospitals (Guardian) on NHS premises?
Overflow planning - bit like the original Nightingales?
But they can't be necessary because the SA data shows Omicron is a damp squib. Or might the NHS fall over anyway?
The narrative has been that England is the gambler and the Scots and Welsh playing safe.
As the hard data starts to come in, is this narrative about to be turned on its head?
Surely the narrativce most beneficial to Mr J is that he won the gamble and the Scots and Irish were too restrictive. That's not an inversion so mcuh as a justification of his policy [sic].
South Africa at the height of the pandemic was at Level 5 restrictions. Even with Omicron it has now made the decision to stay at Level 1. Omicron levels are now falling in Gauteng Province. Hospitalisations are finding patients don't require oxygen or ventilation.
Boris may yet get out of jail - if he was shown not to have panicked in the face of the advice from the wobbly scientists.
I'd prefer if we focused on the London data rather than SA. Should that be positive, hats off to Johnson's genius.
Check the cases in hospital and numbers being ventilated graph. By beginning of December the number of cases had doubled, we should expect to see a large uptick in severe cases now. Not really there thus far.
Have to be pretty careful with the 'in hospital' figure given the strong evidence (tbc tomorrow noon) that it's been driven by incidental admissions/statistical transfers.
The numbers in hospital seem roughly in line with the growth in case numbers!
Do we have figures for those on oxygen as you do with South Africa?
The number in hospital is very suspect.
To take a single example -
On the 19th of December, London hospital numbers rose from 1,573 to 1,666, an increase of 93.
On the same day, from admissions data already in the public domain, we know that 77 people who had been in hospital for over 1 week with other conditions were re-categorised as Covid admissions, presumably after having caught covid in hospital. No net increase in beds occupied at all (yes, some extra protocols to follow, but no more beds, and no evidence that the covid case in question is anywhere near needing hospitalisation).
So that leaves an actual admissions led rise of just 16, and within that we don't know how many were being admitted for something different but just happened to have covid.
Typical NHS admissions per day are around 40,000, of which at peak covid was 4,000, so the scope for other admissions to get badged up as covid due to current prevalence is enormous.
What really annoyed me today when we went out for coffee with my sister and brother in law was the older couple in the cafe visibly upset at having four under 40s and two kids sitting indoors with them. It's as if the older generation think they're entitled to all of life's niceties while young people have to sacrifice "whatever it takes" (to borrow a phrase) to ensure they can live unencumbered by COVID.
I expect they were simply well aware of the data on infections by age bands. Smart people.
Talking of conspiracy nutters....the #1 non-fiction book on Amazon.com, a dodgy hit piece on Dr Fauci written by an anti-vaxxer conspiracy theorist. God wept in the Land of the Free.
Fauci is extremely dodgy, tho, it’s not conspiracy theory nonsense
He is deeply implicated in the original Lancet/Daszak cover-up: the brazen and initially successful attempt to get “lab leak” deemed racist and thus beyond the pale of acceptable debate. Incredible to think that FOR A YEAR simply discussing this hypothesis was prohibited on Facebook and Twitter.
Why did Fauci conspire to get this hypothesis silenced? Because he funded the ecohealth/Daszak Gain of Function research on coronaviruses at Wuhan, research which was illegal in the USA (banned by Obama)
None of this is disputed. It’s all on the record. Fauci lied about it then fessed up
He may well have things in his background that need further investigation....however Robert F Kennedy Jr, the author of the book, is full send conspiracy theorist and pushing all sorts of nonsense. You don't have to do much research to find he has a long history. Would you buy a book from somebody like Alex Jones on COVID?
What really annoyed me today when we went out for coffee with my sister and brother in law was the older couple in the cafe visibly upset at having four under 40s and two kids sitting indoors with them. It's as if the older generation think they're entitled to all of life's niceties while young people have to sacrifice "whatever it takes" (to borrow a phrase) to ensure they can live unencumbered by COVID.
I expect they were simply well aware of the data on infections by age bands. Smart people.
Fine, but if they want to stay safe then they can stay home. It's not on the rest of society to make them feel comfortable.
I actually think the Labour score on the latest YouGov poll (36%) is pretty disappointing, with the Tory score down as low as 30%.
However, my disappointment is tempered by seeing LD/Greens on a combined 20%; I don't think many of them will go (back) to Tories. So if I were a Tory I'd be pretty anxious.
My reluctantly held but oft propounded theory of a high floor to Con support - due to Brexit and Culture War issues - has been holed below the waterline. I wave it goodbye with head a little clearer and a heart much lightened.
YouGov consistently has a higher Green score than anyone else - who knows why! It shows 9% of 2019 Labour voters shifting to them - but I'd think a chunk of those will return in marginal Con-Lab seats. I know several in SW Surrey who was they'll vote Green as CStarmer is too centrist for them, but they all but one say they'd vote Labour in a marginal.
The drop in Tory share in Scotland in recent polls is particularly striking - as Stuart speculates, this may be tactical unwind from Lab/Lib voters going home. The North seems to have swung more than most back to Labour, too, though I'm not sure if the YouGov regions exactly match those in 2019 election surveys.
All that said, I'm amused by the change of mood from "Is Labour finished forever?" a few months ago to "Is Labour's win inevitable?" now. The Tories are finally deep in mid-term trouble, but I'm not counting any chickens yet.
Me neither. It's been a genuinely transformative few weeks but even having adjusted for it I still have Starmer PM after the next GE as a shade of odds against. Still, it has my £300 to £100 bet on that with isam looking quite tasty now so I do hope he'll be back at some point. Is he banned or on a break, do we know?
South Korea is almost doubling its hospital bed capacity for Covid cases as the number of people critically ill with the virus reaches a record high. Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum said 10,000 more beds will be secured by the middle of next month. Some public hospitals will be solely dedicated to treating people with Covid.
Talking of conspiracy nutters....the #1 non-fiction book on Amazon.com, a dodgy hit piece on Dr Fauci written by an anti-vaxxer conspiracy theorist. God wept in the Land of the Free.
Fauci is extremely dodgy, tho, it’s not conspiracy theory nonsense
He is deeply implicated in the original Lancet/Daszak cover-up: the brazen and initially successful attempt to get “lab leak” deemed racist and thus beyond the pale of acceptable debate. Incredible to think that FOR A YEAR simply discussing this hypothesis was prohibited on Facebook and Twitter.
Why did Fauci conspire to get this hypothesis silenced? Because he funded the ecohealth/Daszak Gain of Function research on coronaviruses at Wuhan, research which was illegal in the USA (banned by Obama)
None of this is disputed. It’s all on the record. Fauci lied about it then fessed up
He may well have things in his background that need further investigation....however Robert F Kennedy Jr, the author of the book, is full send conspiracy theorist and pushing all sorts of nonsense. You don't have to do much research to find he has a long history.
Sadly we may never have the answers to all our vital questions about Wuhan/covid origins because the argument has been dominated and poisoned by liars on one side (China, Daszak, lancet editors, fauci) and trumpite nutters on the other. The world deserves better. 20m dead deserve better
Indeed. Why on earth is Holland in hard lockdown?!
The sensible Dutch
[snip]
For some reason which I can't fathom, the sensible Dutch haven't been sensible in this matter. Despite having a good medical system, excellent universities, and plenty of well-qualified experts, and despite their usual habit of being pragmatic and realistic, they for some reason decided that there was no urgency in getting boosters done. That was incomprehensible given the Israeli data on the waning of protection, which has been known for months, long before Omicron was a factor.
Now that it is a factor, they are sensibly and pragmatically panicking. So they should.
The narrative has been that England is the gambler and the Scots and Welsh playing safe.
As the hard data starts to come in, is this narrative about to be turned on its head?
I think your narrative is faulty.
Scotland, Wales and NI may well be over- cautious. Johnson has still thrown the dice and hoped for the best. If he wins it is down to lady luck. It he doesn't win people might die who otherwise wouldn't have died.
(I hope he wins, I am just saying the mechanics behind the win are very dodgy.)
I actually think the Labour score on the latest YouGov poll (36%) is pretty disappointing, with the Tory score down as low as 30%.
However, my disappointment is tempered by seeing LD/Greens on a combined 20%; I don't think many of them will go (back) to Tories. So if I were a Tory I'd be pretty anxious.
My reluctantly held but oft propounded theory of a high floor to Con support - due to Brexit and Culture War issues - has been holed below the waterline. I wave it goodbye with head a little clearer and a heart much lightened.
YouGov consistently has a higher Green score than anyone else - who knows why! It shows 9% of 2019 Labour voters shifting to them - but I'd think a chunk of those will return in marginal Con-Lab seats. I know several in SW Surrey who was they'll vote Green as CStarmer is too centrist for them, but they all but one say they'd vote Labour in a marginal.
The drop in Tory share in Scotland in recent polls is particularly striking - as Stuart speculates, this may be tactical unwind from Lab/Lib voters going home. The North seems to have swung more than most back to Labour, too, though I'm not sure if the YouGov regions exactly match those in 2019 election surveys.
All that said, I'm amused by the change of mood from "Is Labour finished forever?" a few months ago to "Is Labour's win inevitable?" now. The Tories are finally deep in mid-term trouble, but I'm not counting any chickens yet.
South Korea is almost doubling its hospital bed capacity for Covid cases as the number of people critically ill with the virus reaches a record high. Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum said 10,000 more beds will be secured by the middle of next month. Some public hospitals will be solely dedicated to treating people with Covid.
Seems like it is now well seeded in Australia too. Only New Zealand still managing to hold zero COVID approach.
LDs come out against the UK trade deal with Australia and pitch a more protectionist message as they look for farmers' votes after the North Shropshire by election
It's a bad deal for farmers and one that can be 100% pinned on the Tory Party.
Expect a lot of similar items to be announced because there will be a lot of ammo available at the next election.
Not necessarily if farmers also expand their exports to Australia and removal of tariffs will be phased in anyway.
A complete change from 100 years ago though when it was the Liberals who were pure free traders and the Tories who often supported tariffs and protectionism.
For the LDs it seems free trade only applies with the EU
Are you utterly clueless.
Mrs Eek was chatting to a large landowner yesterday - their plan is to gut the farming and close farms as leases come to an end. Remaining farms will expand a bit and a lot of land will be left to rewild - because the new grant schemes make anything else utterly impossible.
And that's before Australia with it's even larger farmers way more efficient farms get started exporting to the UK.
One of the easiest votes for any opposition to win is going to be agricultural / rural voters and like a lot of things there is only one direction for the next few years as the reality hits home.
Remember you are sat in London Suburbia. Mrs Eek is driving round a national park talking to people farming for a living.
I'm failing to see the problem.
Agriculture provides 0.6% of GDP. It should sink or swim on its own merits, not be pandered to like Scargill trying to hold the rest of the country to ransom.
If you believe that British agriculture is of good quality then you should have every faith that it will swim and do even better going forwards. That can only be a good thing.
If you think its going to sink instead, then so be it. That's the free market working as intended and the land will still be available if anyone more efficient and productive wishes to use it instead.
I'm desperately hoping this is what it appears to be - Philip under a new name.
The alternative, 2 separate Philips, is a prospect not easily contemplated.
It is - he gave his reasons earlier in the thread.
Yep, saw that. He no longer wishes to post under his birth name of "Philip Thompson" and has thus transitioned for PB purposes to "Bartholomew Roberts".
I will respect this in accordance with my principles. He is from this point "Bartholomew" to me. Perhaps when we've had a few tumbles and established an awkward intimacy I will risk a "Barty".
Very woke of him, but sits ill with the assorted atrocities and all the other piracy.
Isn't that punching down against the Legally Challenged Community members of the sea-faring world?
Have you checked your privilege?
Not to mention the Welsh.
Simultaneously burning and drowning a shipload of enslaved people does count as punching down against Legally Challenged Community (albewit temporary) members of the sea-faring world.
According to some recent scholarship (ha ha ha) pirates were a rebellion against the hierarchical, hetro-normative patriarchal tyranny of the "normal" sea going world.
So they were the oppressed. And the oppressed can't really oppress other people - the apparent oppression is just false consciousness.
I've actually been reading up on the pirate era for a project. The average matelot did have a shitty time and it's not surprising some rebelled and went rogue. But if they didn't oppress other people (of various genders, colours, and social levels from Indian royalty to enslaved Africans) then I'm Chairperson of the Epping Tories.
Yes, they did have a shitty time. Indeed, until the squeeze of the Napoleonic Wars, the Royal Navy was a surprisingly good employer, compared to the merchant ships.
As to oppressed people oppressing others - yes, it's horseshit. But it is the same horseshit that is supposed to stop us asking about bad actions prevalent in any minority culture.
Congrats on being appointed new Chairperson of the Epping Tories. The keys to the tank are behind the picture of Maggie, over the bar.
What complicates things is the existence of privateers - effecxtively private warships licensed to attack ships of certain nationalities, or legalised pirates depending on one's point of view and nationality. Which could very easily slide into outright piracy.
Weren't Drake and Hawkins privateers? Bit like being in the TA..... called up when needed!
Not quitefair to the TA who don't (so far as I know) spend their time robbing banks in hostile states. And the modern sense of the privateer didn't - I think I read - exist till the codifications of the English and Dutch after 1688 as part of the wars of the time, against enemy trade. It was more that D & H were at times deniable - legally pirates - but HMtQ got her thinly disguised cut. No wonder Philip of Span blew a gasket and sent the Armada.
Yes, I was a bit unkind to the TA. Fine body of men and women and all that!
However unquestionably Drake and Hawkins skated along a very fine line, and Good Queen Bess did little or nothing to maintain any sort of good relationships with her one-time brother-in-law. She didn't do much for her cousin Mary, either, of course. In fact it's probably lucky she didn't have any children. Although one of the few good things James VII & I did was father his eldest son, who sadly died. Had he become Henry IX we might well have avoided the Civil War.
Talking of conspiracy nutters....the #1 non-fiction book on Amazon.com, a dodgy hit piece on Dr Fauci written by an anti-vaxxer conspiracy theorist. God wept in the Land of the Free.
Fauci is extremely dodgy, tho, it’s not conspiracy theory nonsense
He is deeply implicated in the original Lancet/Daszak cover-up: the brazen and initially successful attempt to get “lab leak” deemed racist and thus beyond the pale of acceptable debate. Incredible to think that FOR A YEAR simply discussing this hypothesis was prohibited on Facebook and Twitter.
Why did Fauci conspire to get this hypothesis silenced? Because he funded the ecohealth/Daszak Gain of Function research on coronaviruses at Wuhan, research which was illegal in the USA (banned by Obama)
None of this is disputed. It’s all on the record. Fauci lied about it then fessed up
He may well have things in his background that need further investigation....however Robert F Kennedy Jr, the author of the book, is full send conspiracy theorist and pushing all sorts of nonsense. You don't have to do much research to find he has a long history. Would you buy a book from somebody like Alex Jones on COVID?
What really annoyed me today when we went out for coffee with my sister and brother in law was the older couple in the cafe visibly upset at having four under 40s and two kids sitting indoors with them. It's as if the older generation think they're entitled to all of life's niceties while young people have to sacrifice "whatever it takes" (to borrow a phrase) to ensure they can live unencumbered by COVID.
I expect they were simply well aware of the data on infections by age bands. Smart people.
Fine, but if they want to stay safe then they can stay home. It's not on the rest of society to make them feel comfortable.
I thought you were one of those arguing for living with the virus. So they are sensibly going about their lives, taking sensible precautions. One of the most sensible precautions one can take is avoiding groups of youngsters, especially unmasked youngsters.
Talking of conspiracy nutters....the #1 non-fiction book on Amazon.com, a dodgy hit piece on Dr Fauci written by an anti-vaxxer conspiracy theorist. God wept in the Land of the Free.
Is that the title - 'God wept in the Land of the Free' - or is that you?
Wowsers. 3rd Pfizer jab 3 hours ago has absolutely freight trained me. Sore arm (expected) but also full on brain fuzz fatiigue.
My 3rd (Moderna) completely wiped me out too. The arm was the sorest I think it’s ever been for a vaccination, and I ran a temperature for a few hours and a burning, desperate tiredness. Still, fingers crossed that shows it’s working.
"desperate" - yes I like that. Have gone back to work and have got various routine emails coming at me and have sat here very puzzled suddenly unsure how to deal with them. My brain desperately wants me to sleep it off, which I think is what I will try and do.
Talking of conspiracy nutters....the #1 non-fiction book on Amazon.com, a dodgy hit piece on Dr Fauci written by an anti-vaxxer conspiracy theorist. God wept in the Land of the Free.
Is that the title - 'God wept in the Land of the Free' - or is that you?
No, the book is called "The Real Anthony Fauci: Bill Gates, Big Pharma, and the Global War on Democracy and Public Health"
I think it gives a hint of what the narrative of the book might be.
What really annoyed me today when we went out for coffee with my sister and brother in law was the older couple in the cafe visibly upset at having four under 40s and two kids sitting indoors with them. It's as if the older generation think they're entitled to all of life's niceties while young people have to sacrifice "whatever it takes" (to borrow a phrase) to ensure they can live unencumbered by COVID.
I expect they were simply well aware of the data on infections by age bands. Smart people.
Fine, but if they want to stay safe then they can stay home. It's not on the rest of society to make them feel comfortable.
I thought you were one of those arguing for living with the virus. So they are sensibly going about their lives, taking sensible precautions. One of the most sensible precautions one can take is avoiding groups of youngsters.
Which on them not us. Though this being middle class London they tutted a bit and then got back to their conversation. It also helps that my niece and nephew are extremely cute, never met an old person who didn't completely go gaga over them, just as these ones did in the end.
Talking of conspiracy nutters....the #1 non-fiction book on Amazon.com, a dodgy hit piece on Dr Fauci written by an anti-vaxxer conspiracy theorist. God wept in the Land of the Free.
Fauci is extremely dodgy, tho, it’s not conspiracy theory nonsense
He is deeply implicated in the original Lancet/Daszak cover-up: the brazen and initially successful attempt to get “lab leak” deemed racist and thus beyond the pale of acceptable debate. Incredible to think that FOR A YEAR simply discussing this hypothesis was prohibited on Facebook and Twitter.
Why did Fauci conspire to get this hypothesis silenced? Because he funded the ecohealth/Daszak Gain of Function research on coronaviruses at Wuhan, research which was illegal in the USA (banned by Obama)
None of this is disputed. It’s all on the record. Fauci lied about it then fessed up
He may well have things in his background that need further investigation....however Robert F Kennedy Jr, the author of the book, is full send conspiracy theorist and pushing all sorts of nonsense. You don't have to do much research to find he has a long history. Would you buy a book from somebody like Alex Jones on COVID?
I actually think the Labour score on the latest YouGov poll (36%) is pretty disappointing, with the Tory score down as low as 30%.
However, my disappointment is tempered by seeing LD/Greens on a combined 20%; I don't think many of them will go (back) to Tories. So if I were a Tory I'd be pretty anxious.
My reluctantly held but oft propounded theory of a high floor to Con support - due to Brexit and Culture War issues - has been holed below the waterline. I wave it goodbye with head a little clearer and a heart much lightened.
YouGov consistently has a higher Green score than anyone else - who knows why! It shows 9% of 2019 Labour voters shifting to them - but I'd think a chunk of those will return in marginal Con-Lab seats. I know several in SW Surrey who was they'll vote Green as CStarmer is too centrist for them, but they all but one say they'd vote Labour in a marginal.
The drop in Tory share in Scotland in recent polls is particularly striking - as Stuart speculates, this may be tactical unwind from Lab/Lib voters going home. The North seems to have swung more than most back to Labour, too, though I'm not sure if the YouGov regions exactly match those in 2019 election surveys.
All that said, I'm amused by the change of mood from "Is Labour finished forever?" a few months ago to "Is Labour's win inevitable?" now. The Tories are finally deep in mid-term trouble, but I'm not counting any chickens yet.
Me neither. It's been a genuinely transformative few weeks but even having adjusted for it I still have Starmer PM after the next GE as a shade of odds against. Still, it has my £300 to £100 bet on that with isam looking quite tasty now so I do hope he'll be back at some point. Is he banned or on a break, do we know?
Sunak vs Starmer possibly results in 2017 result based on current hypothetical best PM ratings. I think it's just about inevitable that the Tories lose their majority though even directly comparing with the 1987-92 period.
The narrative has been that England is the gambler and the Scots and Welsh playing safe.
As the hard data starts to come in, is this narrative about to be turned on its head?
I think your narrative is faulty.
Scotland, Wales and NI may well be over- cautious. Johnson has still thrown the dice and hoped for the best. If he wins it is down to lady luck. It he doesn't win people might die who otherwise wouldn't have died.
(I hope he wins, I am just saying the mechanics behind the win are very dodgy.)
The left usually likes to be the ones saying poverty kills. This time however no amount of economic damage due to unecessary restrictions seems to count at all. Think how many future hospitals, sure start centres, etc etc are not getting built and run every time we casually spend another billion or 10, just in case.
Talking of conspiracy nutters....the #1 non-fiction book on Amazon.com, a dodgy hit piece on Dr Fauci written by an anti-vaxxer conspiracy theorist. God wept in the Land of the Free.
Is that the title - 'God wept in the Land of the Free' - or is that you?
No, the book is called "The Real Anthony Fauci: Bill Gates, Big Pharma, and the Global War on Democracy and Public Health"
Oh dear. I see what you mean. Not one for my stocking, I have to say.
South Korea is almost doubling its hospital bed capacity for Covid cases as the number of people critically ill with the virus reaches a record high. Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum said 10,000 more beds will be secured by the middle of next month. Some public hospitals will be solely dedicated to treating people with Covid.
So every country without a good wall of prior infection is gonna get hit by Omicron? Is this what’s happening in Korea?
They are well jabbed so it can’t be a lack of vax
Edit: tho this article suggests the problem is waning immunity in the old and sluggish boostering
Indeed. Why on earth is Holland in hard lockdown?!
The sensible Dutch
[snip]
For some reason which I can't fathom, the sensible Dutch haven't been sensible in this matter. Despite having a good medical system, excellent universities, and plenty of well-qualified experts, and despite their usual habit of being pragmatic and realistic, they for some reason decided that there was no urgency in getting boosters done. That was incomprehensible given the Israeli data on the waning of protection, which has been known for months, long before Omicron was a factor.
Now that it is a factor, they are sensibly and pragmatically panicking. So they should.
Yes, I've been very critical of our government for being late on boosters and not having a plan to get everyone third doses by December 17th, but some European countries have been asleep at the wheel and still are.
Compared to the other major European nations they are actually slowing down their vaccine programme, the UK has very quickly ramped up from plodding along to a state of emergency on vaccines. If we can do it they should have been able to as well.
South Korea is almost doubling its hospital bed capacity for Covid cases as the number of people critically ill with the virus reaches a record high. Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum said 10,000 more beds will be secured by the middle of next month. Some public hospitals will be solely dedicated to treating people with Covid.
So every country without a good wall of prior infection is gonna get hit by Omicron? Is this what’s happening in Korea?
They are well jabbed so it can’t be a lack of vax
I imagine its Delta which will be quickly followed by Omicron
The narrative has been that England is the gambler and the Scots and Welsh playing safe.
As the hard data starts to come in, is this narrative about to be turned on its head?
I think your narrative is faulty.
Scotland, Wales and NI may well be over- cautious. Johnson has still thrown the dice and hoped for the best. If he wins it is down to lady luck. It he doesn't win people might die who otherwise wouldn't have died.
(I hope he wins, I am just saying the mechanics behind the win are very dodgy.)
The left usually likes to be the ones saying poverty kills. This time however no amount of economic damage due to unecessary restrictions seems to count at all. Think how many future hospitals, sure start centres, etc etc are not getting built and run every time we casually spend another billion or 10, just in case.
I don't dispute any of that. I may be centrist scum, but the last thing I want to see, save for people dying unnecessarily are lockdowns. Sensible precautions however I am all for.
During the end of this year's earlier lockdowns I was accused of being a lazy-arsed pussy for my caution. Yet I was out and about working and mixing it with the hoi poloi whilst PB Steve Baker style keyboard warriors were banging away with their hard man rhetoric from the hermitically sealed safety of their Mum's basements.
Indeed. Why on earth is Holland in hard lockdown?!
The sensible Dutch
[snip]
For some reason which I can't fathom, the sensible Dutch haven't been sensible in this matter. Despite having a good medical system, excellent universities, and plenty of well-qualified experts, and despite their usual habit of being pragmatic and realistic, they for some reason decided that there was no urgency in getting boosters done. That was incomprehensible given the Israeli data on the waning of protection, which has been known for months, long before Omicron was a factor.
Now that it is a factor, they are sensibly and pragmatically panicking. So they should.
"In this wave, in both the public and private sector, we haven't seen a trend in an increase requirement for oxygen in hospital admitted patients."
"She said in the last five weeks, there had also been a decrease in the number of patients treated in the intensive care unit. "
We will have to call you Good News Hughes 🙂
What caveats are you going to give us though? They are a younger population compared to geriatric and obese UK? New waves always start in younger more social age groups who tend not to need as much hospital support? They are in a different seasonal weather system than our relentless murk and cold? Not as worried as us about winter NHS pressure like Flu and slips on ice? Doesn’t zip around South Africa as quickly as packed in Britain? They didn’t come into Omicron as hot as we running delta?
Poor old Boris has long for and against columns when all he wants is a party hat ☹️
Indeed. Why on earth is Holland in hard lockdown?!
The sensible Dutch
[snip]
For some reason which I can't fathom, the sensible Dutch haven't been sensible in this matter. Despite having a good medical system, excellent universities, and plenty of well-qualified experts, and despite their usual habit of being pragmatic and realistic, they for some reason decided that there was no urgency in getting boosters done. That was incomprehensible given the Israeli data on the waning of protection, which has been known for months, long before Omicron was a factor.
Now that it is a factor, they are sensibly and pragmatically panicking. So they should.
Yes, I've been very critical of our government for being late on boosters and not having a plan to get everyone third doses by December 17th, but some European countries have been asleep at the wheel and still are.
Compared to the other major European nations they are actually slowing down their vaccine programme, the UK has very quickly ramped up from plodding along to a state of emergency on vaccines. If we can do it they should have been able to as well.
Why aren’t the Dutch rioting? You’re locked in your tiny flat in Haarlem. Everywhere is shut. The parks are freezing cold
Meanwhile your government is yawning as it hands out 3 booster jabs a day. Mental
The narrative has been that England is the gambler and the Scots and Welsh playing safe.
As the hard data starts to come in, is this narrative about to be turned on its head?
It's easy to gamble when you can blame Westminster for not paying for lockdowns.
The SNP's entire existence in Government is based on taking the glory when things go right and blaming Westminster for anything and everything that goes wrong - while saying wouldn't be an issue if we had independence / FREEDOM.
You know what I'd really like to know about polls.... or rather people... is what happens in their heads.
I understand that you could be a Conservative voter, but then a serious of bad news comes out which the government of the day can be blamed, but I find it odd that the Conservative vote goes down and the Labour vote goes up.
The Conservative and Labour parties are at different ends of the spectrum. If you were disillusioned with the Conservatives, surely you'd either drift right (to Reform) or drift left (to the LD) or sit on your hands (so overall Con goes down, but everyone goes up).
But that rarely happens. Con goes down, Labour goes up; and vice versa.
I do wonder if a large part of the electorate are so disengaged with politics they think the only choices on offer are Labour or Conservative. I'm convinced the reason Clegg did so well in 2010 wasn't because of any debates, but because a huge amount of the electorate suddenly realised that there was actually three choices, and no, the ballot paper that lists the options isn't just Labour, Conservative, then the 10 joke candidates.
Am I right in thinking that. Most normal people (ie, no one on PB therefore) don't realise there are more than two choices?
Indeed. Why on earth is Holland in hard lockdown?!
The sensible Dutch
[snip]
For some reason which I can't fathom, the sensible Dutch haven't been sensible in this matter. Despite having a good medical system, excellent universities, and plenty of well-qualified experts, and despite their usual habit of being pragmatic and realistic, they for some reason decided that there was no urgency in getting boosters done. That was incomprehensible given the Israeli data on the waning of protection, which has been known for months, long before Omicron was a factor.
Now that it is a factor, they are sensibly and pragmatically panicking. So they should.
This:
It is worth noting that the EU number is often revised upwards because some countries are slow to report. It is better to choose individual EU countries, and then it simply will only allow their data up until the last date recieved.
The narrative has been that England is the gambler and the Scots and Welsh playing safe.
As the hard data starts to come in, is this narrative about to be turned on its head?
I think your narrative is faulty.
Scotland, Wales and NI may well be over- cautious. Johnson has still thrown the dice and hoped for the best. If he wins it is down to lady luck. It he doesn't win people might die who otherwise wouldn't have died.
(I hope he wins, I am just saying the mechanics behind the win are very dodgy.)
Caution is waiting for the evidence to make a decision, which is what Johnson has done.
Scotland, Wales and NI have thrown all caution to the wind and jumped headfirst into restrictions without any proof that they're required.
If you are thinking of removing someone's civil liberties then the only acceptable grounds to do so is it has been proven to be necessary beyond all reasonable doubt. "The precautionary principle" is just complete bollocks, would you kill or incarcerate a suspected serial killer whom you've got no evidence is actually the killer on "the precautionary principle" or would you gather the evidence first?
Destroying lives and livelihoods by stripping away liberties, on a hunch that it might be necessary, is the real gamble. Waiting until you know it is necessary is doing only what is necessary, when it is necessary.
I actually think the Labour score on the latest YouGov poll (36%) is pretty disappointing, with the Tory score down as low as 30%.
However, my disappointment is tempered by seeing LD/Greens on a combined 20%; I don't think many of them will go (back) to Tories. So if I were a Tory I'd be pretty anxious.
My reluctantly held but oft propounded theory of a high floor to Con support - due to Brexit and Culture War issues - has been holed below the waterline. I wave it goodbye with head a little clearer and a heart much lightened.
YouGov consistently has a higher Green score than anyone else - who knows why! It shows 9% of 2019 Labour voters shifting to them - but I'd think a chunk of those will return in marginal Con-Lab seats. I know several in SW Surrey who was they'll vote Green as CStarmer is too centrist for them, but they all but one say they'd vote Labour in a marginal.
The drop in Tory share in Scotland in recent polls is particularly striking - as Stuart speculates, this may be tactical unwind from Lab/Lib voters going home. The North seems to have swung more than most back to Labour, too, though I'm not sure if the YouGov regions exactly match those in 2019 election surveys.
All that said, I'm amused by the change of mood from "Is Labour finished forever?" a few months ago to "Is Labour's win inevitable?" now. The Tories are finally deep in mid-term trouble, but I'm not counting any chickens yet.
Tick tock, eh, Nick?
Don’t be silly ping, chickens go cluck. Clocks go tock.
Indeed. Why on earth is Holland in hard lockdown?!
The sensible Dutch
[snip]
For some reason which I can't fathom, the sensible Dutch haven't been sensible in this matter. Despite having a good medical system, excellent universities, and plenty of well-qualified experts, and despite their usual habit of being pragmatic and realistic, they for some reason decided that there was no urgency in getting boosters done. That was incomprehensible given the Israeli data on the waning of protection, which has been known for months, long before Omicron was a factor.
Now that it is a factor, they are sensibly and pragmatically panicking. So they should.
This:
If we avoid lockdown and significant further restrictions in the New Year as half the UK adult population and rising have now had their booster (well above the EU and global average let alone the Netherlands rate), then there is your potential 2022 Boris bounce back
As an avid Johnson loather my hope is that there is a vote of no confidence that he wins. That will pretty well guarantee he's there at the next election which he'll almost certainly lose. The whole country now knows him to be a liar and laughing stock. The infamous Ratner gaffe showed the impossibility of rescuing a brand that's gone over the edge. The only real question is whether 'the brand' is just 'Johnson' or his party as well.
Dec 17 - Nicola Sturgeon asked about cutting self-isolation time. Reply: “Yeah, that would really help because that would spread infection even further.”
Dec 22 - John Swinney says self-isolation changes being considered.
Dec 17 - Nicola Sturgeon ridicules idea of finding more business support cash from her Budget in answer to Press Q. “I don't know where you think I should take it from? The health service?"
Dec 21 - Ms Sturgeon announces “a further £100 million from elsewhere in our budget”
Dec 18 - Nicola Sturgeon rubbishes Herald on Sunday front page about recall of parliament between Christmas New Year. Prompts 5.3k likes, accusations of "media lies", "bullshit", etc
Dec 21 - It’s confirmed Parliament is to be recalled between Christmas and New Year
What a stupid retort. It is not a binary choice. Sturgeon gets a far more favourable press than Johnson and it is good to see some of her errors and mishaps highlighted.
Should we really ignore the failings of any politician in a position of power simply because of Johnson ?
The narrative has been that England is the gambler and the Scots and Welsh playing safe.
As the hard data starts to come in, is this narrative about to be turned on its head?
I think your narrative is faulty.
Scotland, Wales and NI may well be over- cautious. Johnson has still thrown the dice and hoped for the best. If he wins it is down to lady luck. It he doesn't win people might die who otherwise wouldn't have died.
(I hope he wins, I am just saying the mechanics behind the win are very dodgy.)
Caution is waiting for the evidence to make a decision, which is what Johnson has done.
Scotland, Wales and NI have thrown all caution to the wind and jumped headfirst into restrictions without any proof that they're required.
If you are thinking of removing someone's civil liberties then the only acceptable grounds to do so is it has been proven to be necessary beyond all reasonable doubt. "The precautionary principle" is just complete bollocks, would you kill or incarcerate a suspected serial killer whom you've got no evidence is actually the killer on "the precautionary principle" or would you gather the evidence first?
Destroying lives and livelihoods by stripping away liberties, on a hunch that it might be necessary, is the real gamble. Waiting until you know it is necessary is doing only what is necessary, when it is necessary.
It was your previous incarnation I had in mind Phil in my post's characterisation.
The narrative has been that England is the gambler and the Scots and Welsh playing safe.
As the hard data starts to come in, is this narrative about to be turned on its head?
I think your narrative is faulty.
Scotland, Wales and NI may well be over- cautious. Johnson has still thrown the dice and hoped for the best. If he wins it is down to lady luck. It he doesn't win people might die who otherwise wouldn't have died.
(I hope he wins, I am just saying the mechanics behind the win are very dodgy.)
Caution is waiting for the evidence to make a decision, which is what Johnson has done.
Scotland, Wales and NI have thrown all caution to the wind and jumped headfirst into restrictions without any proof that they're required.
If you are thinking of removing someone's civil liberties then the only acceptable grounds to do so is it has been proven to be necessary beyond all reasonable doubt. "The precautionary principle" is just complete bollocks, would you kill or incarcerate a suspected serial killer whom you've got no evidence is actually the killer on "the precautionary principle" or would you gather the evidence first?
Destroying lives and livelihoods by stripping away liberties, on a hunch that it might be necessary, is the real gamble. Waiting until you know it is necessary is doing only what is necessary, when it is necessary.
But Mr Johnson HAS made a decision, which is that the evidence justifies the same policies as before.
Indeed. Why on earth is Holland in hard lockdown?!
The sensible Dutch
[snip]
For some reason which I can't fathom, the sensible Dutch haven't been sensible in this matter. Despite having a good medical system, excellent universities, and plenty of well-qualified experts, and despite their usual habit of being pragmatic and realistic, they for some reason decided that there was no urgency in getting boosters done. That was incomprehensible given the Israeli data on the waning of protection, which has been known for months, long before Omicron was a factor.
Now that it is a factor, they are sensibly and pragmatically panicking. So they should.
My Mother and Brother been reminding me all week, we are Damn lucky to have booster boosterism bojo.
I retort, he’s sure proving a lucky Godsend to us libdems right now 🤣
But seriously, UK government could have boosted booster programme a few weeks earlier? Or is that nit picking?
The narrative has been that England is the gambler and the Scots and Welsh playing safe.
As the hard data starts to come in, is this narrative about to be turned on its head?
I think your narrative is faulty.
Scotland, Wales and NI may well be over- cautious. Johnson has still thrown the dice and hoped for the best. If he wins it is down to lady luck. It he doesn't win people might die who otherwise wouldn't have died.
(I hope he wins, I am just saying the mechanics behind the win are very dodgy.)
Caution is waiting for the evidence to make a decision, which is what Johnson has done.
Scotland, Wales and NI have thrown all caution to the wind and jumped headfirst into restrictions without any proof that they're required.
If you are thinking of removing someone's civil liberties then the only acceptable grounds to do so is it has been proven to be necessary beyond all reasonable doubt. "The precautionary principle" is just complete bollocks, would you kill or incarcerate a suspected serial killer whom you've got no evidence is actually the killer on "the precautionary principle" or would you gather the evidence first?
Destroying lives and livelihoods by stripping away liberties, on a hunch that it might be necessary, is the real gamble. Waiting until you know it is necessary is doing only what is necessary, when it is necessary.
It was your previous incarnation I had in mind Phil in my post's characterisation.
The narrative has been that England is the gambler and the Scots and Welsh playing safe.
As the hard data starts to come in, is this narrative about to be turned on its head?
I think your narrative is faulty.
Scotland, Wales and NI may well be over- cautious. Johnson has still thrown the dice and hoped for the best. If he wins it is down to lady luck. It he doesn't win people might die who otherwise wouldn't have died.
(I hope he wins, I am just saying the mechanics behind the win are very dodgy.)
Caution is waiting for the evidence to make a decision, which is what Johnson has done.
Scotland, Wales and NI have thrown all caution to the wind and jumped headfirst into restrictions without any proof that they're required.
If you are thinking of removing someone's civil liberties then the only acceptable grounds to do so is it has been proven to be necessary beyond all reasonable doubt. "The precautionary principle" is just complete bollocks, would you kill or incarcerate a suspected serial killer whom you've got no evidence is actually the killer on "the precautionary principle" or would you gather the evidence first?
Destroying lives and livelihoods by stripping away liberties, on a hunch that it might be necessary, is the real gamble. Waiting until you know it is necessary is doing only what is necessary, when it is necessary.
The narrative has been that England is the gambler and the Scots and Welsh playing safe.
As the hard data starts to come in, is this narrative about to be turned on its head?
I think your narrative is faulty.
Scotland, Wales and NI may well be over- cautious. Johnson has still thrown the dice and hoped for the best. If he wins it is down to lady luck. It he doesn't win people might die who otherwise wouldn't have died.
(I hope he wins, I am just saying the mechanics behind the win are very dodgy.)
Caution is waiting for the evidence to make a decision, which is what Johnson has done.
Scotland, Wales and NI have thrown all caution to the wind and jumped headfirst into restrictions without any proof that they're required.
If you are thinking of removing someone's civil liberties then the only acceptable grounds to do so is it has been proven to be necessary beyond all reasonable doubt. "The precautionary principle" is just complete bollocks, would you kill or incarcerate a suspected serial killer whom you've got no evidence is actually the killer on "the precautionary principle" or would you gather the evidence first?
Destroying lives and livelihoods by stripping away liberties, on a hunch that it might be necessary, is the real gamble. Waiting until you know it is necessary is doing only what is necessary, when it is necessary.
Yes, it's depressing how badly the narrative of lockdowns being a cautious measure has permeated western society. It's not caution, it's diving headlong into a known terrible idea. Lockdown's are a last resort measure, not a the easy way out to show caution. I'm truly grateful for the 100 Tory MPs and Cabinet wrestling the decision back and telling the scientists and "lockdown just in case" people in the public sector that it needs to pass a very high evidence bar, not modelled data.
Indeed. Why on earth is Holland in hard lockdown?!
The sensible Dutch
[snip]
For some reason which I can't fathom, the sensible Dutch haven't been sensible in this matter. Despite having a good medical system, excellent universities, and plenty of well-qualified experts, and despite their usual habit of being pragmatic and realistic, they for some reason decided that there was no urgency in getting boosters done. That was incomprehensible given the Israeli data on the waning of protection, which has been known for months, long before Omicron was a factor.
Now that it is a factor, they are sensibly and pragmatically panicking. So they should.
This:
It is worth noting that the EU number is often revised upwards because some countries are slow to report. It is better to choose individual EU countries, and then it simply will only allow their data up until the last date recieved.
You are saying the cumbersome monolith is so slow and rubbish, accurate data for now will only come out in middle of 2024 😆
South Korea is almost doubling its hospital bed capacity for Covid cases as the number of people critically ill with the virus reaches a record high. Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum said 10,000 more beds will be secured by the middle of next month. Some public hospitals will be solely dedicated to treating people with Covid.
So every country without a good wall of prior infection is gonna get hit by Omicron? Is this what’s happening in Korea?
They are well jabbed so it can’t be a lack of vax
Edit: tho this article suggests the problem is waning immunity in the old and sluggish boostering
Much is being made of Gibraltar (Evening Standard today). 100% vaccination, Xmas still cancelled. Whatever is preventing freedom there, it isn't the un vaccinated.
The narrative has been that England is the gambler and the Scots and Welsh playing safe.
As the hard data starts to come in, is this narrative about to be turned on its head?
I think your narrative is faulty.
Scotland, Wales and NI may well be over- cautious. Johnson has still thrown the dice and hoped for the best. If he wins it is down to lady luck. It he doesn't win people might die who otherwise wouldn't have died.
(I hope he wins, I am just saying the mechanics behind the win are very dodgy.)
Caution is waiting for the evidence to make a decision, which is what Johnson has done.
Scotland, Wales and NI have thrown all caution to the wind and jumped headfirst into restrictions without any proof that they're required.
If you are thinking of removing someone's civil liberties then the only acceptable grounds to do so is it has been proven to be necessary beyond all reasonable doubt. "The precautionary principle" is just complete bollocks, would you kill or incarcerate a suspected serial killer whom you've got no evidence is actually the killer on "the precautionary principle" or would you gather the evidence first?
Destroying lives and livelihoods by stripping away liberties, on a hunch that it might be necessary, is the real gamble. Waiting until you know it is necessary is doing only what is necessary, when it is necessary.
It was your previous incarnation I had in mind Phil in my post's characterisation.
The narrative has been that England is the gambler and the Scots and Welsh playing safe.
As the hard data starts to come in, is this narrative about to be turned on its head?
I think your narrative is faulty.
Scotland, Wales and NI may well be over- cautious. Johnson has still thrown the dice and hoped for the best. If he wins it is down to lady luck. It he doesn't win people might die who otherwise wouldn't have died.
(I hope he wins, I am just saying the mechanics behind the win are very dodgy.)
Caution is waiting for the evidence to make a decision, which is what Johnson has done.
Scotland, Wales and NI have thrown all caution to the wind and jumped headfirst into restrictions without any proof that they're required.
If you are thinking of removing someone's civil liberties then the only acceptable grounds to do so is it has been proven to be necessary beyond all reasonable doubt. "The precautionary principle" is just complete bollocks, would you kill or incarcerate a suspected serial killer whom you've got no evidence is actually the killer on "the precautionary principle" or would you gather the evidence first?
Destroying lives and livelihoods by stripping away liberties, on a hunch that it might be necessary, is the real gamble. Waiting until you know it is necessary is doing only what is necessary, when it is necessary.
Are you thinking of running for office?
Doubt it very much, given his use of that particular name. Both on historical and political grounds. Unless BR does actuallky want to create a Pirate Party.
Rather concerned that ramping up measures in Wales, and Scottish Parliament recall is indication that Devolved Govt’s have been tipped the wink that they will have the money to do so. Which can only surely be because England are going to spend it as well.
Rather concerned that ramping up measures in Wales, and Scottish Parliament recall is indication that Devolved Govt’s have been tipped the wink that they will have the money to do so. Which can only surely be because England are going to spend it as well.
Already happening, with money for hospitality. Though the Scottish Gmt was already going ahead by scraping together some money from its own budget, so probably drawing different conclusions from the SAGE data on the cross-gmt panels.
South Korea is almost doubling its hospital bed capacity for Covid cases as the number of people critically ill with the virus reaches a record high. Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum said 10,000 more beds will be secured by the middle of next month. Some public hospitals will be solely dedicated to treating people with Covid.
So every country without a good wall of prior infection is gonna get hit by Omicron? Is this what’s happening in Korea?
They are well jabbed so it can’t be a lack of vax
Edit: tho this article suggests the problem is waning immunity in the old and sluggish boostering
Much is being made of Gibraltar (Evening Standard today). 100% vaccination, Xmas still cancelled. Whatever is preventing freedom there, it isn't the un vaccinated.
As an avid Johnson loather my hope is that there is a vote of no confidence that he wins. That will pretty well guarantee he's there at the next election which he'll almost certainly lose. The whole country now knows him to be a liar and laughing stock. The infamous Ratner gaffe showed the impossibility of rescuing a brand that's gone over the edge. The only real question is whether 'the brand' is just 'Johnson' or his party as well.
He has imposed the Johnson brand on the Conservative Party. It needs a new leader and a new name. And a new image. And anew way of working.
The narrative has been that England is the gambler and the Scots and Welsh playing safe.
As the hard data starts to come in, is this narrative about to be turned on its head?
I think your narrative is faulty.
Scotland, Wales and NI may well be over- cautious. Johnson has still thrown the dice and hoped for the best. If he wins it is down to lady luck. It he doesn't win people might die who otherwise wouldn't have died.
(I hope he wins, I am just saying the mechanics behind the win are very dodgy.)
The left usually likes to be the ones saying poverty kills. This time however no amount of economic damage due to unecessary restrictions seems to count at all. Think how many future hospitals, sure start centres, etc etc are not getting built and run every time we casually spend another billion or 10, just in case.
I don't dispute any of that. I may be centrist scum, but the last thing I want to see, save for people dying unnecessarily are lockdowns. Sensible precautions however I am all for.
During the end of this year's earlier lockdowns I was accused of being a lazy-arsed pussy for my caution. Yet I was out and about working and mixing it with the hoi poloi whilst PB Steve Baker style keyboard warriors were banging away with their hard man rhetoric from the hermitically sealed safety of their Mum's basements.
There's a tendency of some in debate to equate support of lockdown with a liking for it and an indifference to its costs. There could well be people like that but not many. It certainly doesn't follow.
The narrative has been that England is the gambler and the Scots and Welsh playing safe.
As the hard data starts to come in, is this narrative about to be turned on its head?
I think your narrative is faulty.
Scotland, Wales and NI may well be over- cautious. Johnson has still thrown the dice and hoped for the best. If he wins it is down to lady luck. It he doesn't win people might die who otherwise wouldn't have died.
(I hope he wins, I am just saying the mechanics behind the win are very dodgy.)
Caution is waiting for the evidence to make a decision, which is what Johnson has done.
Scotland, Wales and NI have thrown all caution to the wind and jumped headfirst into restrictions without any proof that they're required.
If you are thinking of removing someone's civil liberties then the only acceptable grounds to do so is it has been proven to be necessary beyond all reasonable doubt. "The precautionary principle" is just complete bollocks, would you kill or incarcerate a suspected serial killer whom you've got no evidence is actually the killer on "the precautionary principle" or would you gather the evidence first?
Destroying lives and livelihoods by stripping away liberties, on a hunch that it might be necessary, is the real gamble. Waiting until you know it is necessary is doing only what is necessary, when it is necessary.
Yes, it's depressing how badly the narrative of lockdowns being a cautious measure has permeated western society. It's not caution, it's diving headlong into a known terrible idea. Lockdown's are a last resort measure, not a the easy way out to show caution. I'm truly grateful for the 100 Tory MPs and Cabinet wrestling the decision back and telling the scientists and "lockdown just in case" people in the public sector that it needs to pass a very high evidence bar, not modelled data.
Look at this specious, partisan, irresponsible drivel from Drakeford
“Drakeford contrasted the Welsh administration’s position with what he called the “state of paralysis” of Boris Johnson’s government over whether new restrictions were needed.
“They are paralysed by their internal divisions and are unable to act on it,” he said. “When we see the evidence, and we’re told about the actions we can take to protect people, we will take them. I think there’s a real contrast with the paralysis of a UK government simply unable to act.””
The UKG is not “paralysed”. It is deeply, rightly reluctant to take drastic, harmful action - destroying businesses and damaging lives - until it sees data to justify it. The data does not yet exist. Arguably with each hour that passes it points in the opposite direction. But we just don’t know yet
The worst behaviour of the Devolved governments during Covid has been as bad as any of the farcical wank at Westminster
Dec 17 - Nicola Sturgeon asked about cutting self-isolation time. Reply: “Yeah, that would really help because that would spread infection even further.”
Dec 22 - John Swinney says self-isolation changes being considered.
Dec 17 - Nicola Sturgeon ridicules idea of finding more business support cash from her Budget in answer to Press Q. “I don't know where you think I should take it from? The health service?"
Dec 21 - Ms Sturgeon announces “a further £100 million from elsewhere in our budget”
Dec 18 - Nicola Sturgeon rubbishes Herald on Sunday front page about recall of parliament between Christmas New Year. Prompts 5.3k likes, accusations of "media lies", "bullshit", etc
Dec 21 - It’s confirmed Parliament is to be recalled between Christmas and New Year
What a stupid retort. It is not a binary choice. Sturgeon gets a far more favourable press than Johnson and it is good to see some of her errors and mishaps highlighted.
Should we really ignore the failings of any politician in a position of power simply because of Johnson ?
I was merely pointing out an alternative view You Boris fanbois need to chillax.
The narrative has been that England is the gambler and the Scots and Welsh playing safe.
As the hard data starts to come in, is this narrative about to be turned on its head?
I think your narrative is faulty.
Scotland, Wales and NI may well be over- cautious. Johnson has still thrown the dice and hoped for the best. If he wins it is down to lady luck. It he doesn't win people might die who otherwise wouldn't have died.
(I hope he wins, I am just saying the mechanics behind the win are very dodgy.)
The left usually likes to be the ones saying poverty kills. This time however no amount of economic damage due to unecessary restrictions seems to count at all. Think how many future hospitals, sure start centres, etc etc are not getting built and run every time we casually spend another billion or 10, just in case.
I don't dispute any of that. I may be centrist scum, but the last thing I want to see, save for people dying unnecessarily are lockdowns. Sensible precautions however I am all for.
During the end of this year's earlier lockdowns I was accused of being a lazy-arsed pussy for my caution. Yet I was out and about working and mixing it with the hoi poloi whilst PB Steve Baker style keyboard warriors were banging away with their hard man rhetoric from the hermitically sealed safety of their Mum's basements.
There's a tendency of some in debate to equate support of lockdown with a liking for it and an indifference to its costs. There could well be people like that but not many. It certainly doesn't follow.
Or indeed that restrictions = lockdown. Some of the posting here is on the verge of seeing a Pekinese and going all screamy about Hounds of the Baskervilles.
My Mother and Brother been reminding me all week, we are Damn lucky to have booster boosterism bojo.
I retort, he’s sure proving a lucky Godsend to us libdems right now 🤣
But seriously, UK government could have boosted booster programme a few weeks earlier? Or is that nit picking?
Both things are true:
- We are doing very, very, well on boosters, compared with most comparable countries. We started large-scale boosters earlier than most, and we're now currently behind only Israel in boosters per 100K population. We're also continuing to roll them out fast, so we'll very soon overtake even Israel. So, good marks for that, and also for the initial prioritisation which means that we've got the vast majority of the most vulnerable protected.
- But it's equally true that we could easily have been in an even better position, at less effort, if only the JCVI hadn't stuck to the six-month gap for so long (as I and many others here, notably @MaxPB, have been arguing for a long time). For once, this wasn't the fault of the government, reports at the time said ministers were keen to get on with it, but the JCVI dragged their feet even though the data was already clear. Of course in theory the govt could have over-ruled them, but that's very hard politically and I'm not sure the precedent would be a good one, so I'm not surprised that they didn't.
Rather concerned that ramping up measures in Wales, and Scottish Parliament recall is indication that Devolved Govt’s have been tipped the wink that they will have the money to do so. Which can only surely be because England are going to spend it as well.
Isn't it just the policy of differentiation continued?
Indeed. Why on earth is Holland in hard lockdown?!
The sensible Dutch
[snip]
For some reason which I can't fathom, the sensible Dutch haven't been sensible in this matter. Despite having a good medical system, excellent universities, and plenty of well-qualified experts, and despite their usual habit of being pragmatic and realistic, they for some reason decided that there was no urgency in getting boosters done. That was incomprehensible given the Israeli data on the waning of protection, which has been known for months, long before Omicron was a factor.
Now that it is a factor, they are sensibly and pragmatically panicking. So they should.
My Mother and Brother been reminding me all week, we are Damn lucky to have booster boosterism bojo.
I retort, he’s sure proving a lucky Godsend to us libdems right now 🤣
But seriously, UK government could have boosted booster programme a few weeks earlier? Or is that nit picking?
Without Omicron, the previous rate was probably acceptable. But having had Alpha and Delta, maybe we should have prepared for the next variant.
As an avid Johnson loather my hope is that there is a vote of no confidence that he wins. That will pretty well guarantee he's there at the next election which he'll almost certainly lose. The whole country now knows him to be a liar and laughing stock. The infamous Ratner gaffe showed the impossibility of rescuing a brand that's gone over the edge. The only real question is whether 'the brand' is just 'Johnson' or his party as well.
He has imposed the Johnson brand on the Conservative Party. It needs a new leader and a new name. And a new image. And anew way of working.
Rather concerned that ramping up measures in Wales, and Scottish Parliament recall is indication that Devolved Govt’s have been tipped the wink that they will have the money to do so. Which can only surely be because England are going to spend it as well.
Isn't it just the policy of differentiation continued?
Can't differentiate till one knows what 'Boris' does, can one?
Comments
On the substantive point, I totally agree that they should have been ramping up the booster programme much earlier. "Should have done this sooner" is the overarching criticism you can apply to much of the govt's covid response...
In all seriousness - totally agree. I'm governor of an inner city London primary where over 50% of pupils are Pupil Premium / English as a second language. The impact of lockdown on them, physically, emotionally, mentally, educationally, has been immense and almost all unseen.
The issue is that Government spending is too high on day to day items and various mistakes mean we are still subsidising companies to employ workers on the minimum wage.
Other flavours available but that's only because nobody in their right mind likes Hulas in any other flavour but barbecue beef.
Still annoyed with Master and Commander - a razee* frigate as a privateer? really?
*Well, purpose built but like a razee
IIRC from the books the vessel was something of an anomaly anyway - too small to be a real frigate. So sold out of service.
Not having nursery or reception for two years certainly didn't help with that either.
The book would have been superb as a film. Opening with the concert at Malta, the near duel, the farcical nature of Aubrey's behaviour vs his success, his Irish first's divided loyalties....
In the books they the author jumped through various hoops to keep Aubrey in an out-of-date 28 for so long.
I'm sure in Cambridge and other areas some capacity has been added too, but the vast majority of the gain in numbers is from getting everyone to simply queue up and waiting. Capacity utilisation has increased to nearly 100% per day, if we'd had that for the whole of December we'd have done an extra 8-10m doses. The threat of Omicron would be greatly reduced and we'd be pretty relaxed about January with just 3-4m boosters to get done for people who got COVID in December and weren't eligible.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HMS_Surprise_(replica_ship)
The drop in Tory share in Scotland in recent polls is particularly striking - as Stuart speculates, this may be tactical unwind from Lab/Lib voters going home. The North seems to have swung more than most back to Labour, too, though I'm not sure if the YouGov regions exactly match those in 2019 election surveys.
All that said, I'm amused by the change of mood from "Is Labour finished forever?" a few months ago to "Is Labour's win inevitable?" now. The Tories are finally deep in mid-term trouble, but I'm not counting any chickens yet.
Do we have figures for those on oxygen as you do with South Africa?
As the hard data starts to come in, is this narrative about to be turned on its head?
He is deeply implicated in the original Lancet/Daszak cover-up: the brazen and initially successful attempt to get “lab leak” deemed racist and thus beyond the pale of acceptable debate. Incredible to think that FOR A YEAR simply discussing this hypothesis was prohibited on Facebook and Twitter.
Why did Fauci conspire to get this hypothesis silenced? Because he funded the ecohealth/Daszak Gain of Function research on coronaviruses at Wuhan, research which was illegal in the USA (banned by Obama)
None of this is disputed. It’s all on the record. Fauci lied about it then fessed up
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2021/10/nih-admits-funding-risky-virus-research-in-wuhan
To take a single example -
On the 19th of December, London hospital numbers rose from 1,573 to 1,666, an increase of 93.
On the same day, from admissions data already in the public domain, we know that 77 people who had been in hospital for over 1 week with other conditions were re-categorised as Covid admissions, presumably after having caught covid in hospital. No net increase in beds occupied at all (yes, some extra protocols to follow, but no more beds, and no evidence that the covid case in question is anywhere near needing hospitalisation).
So that leaves an actual admissions led rise of just 16, and within that we don't know how many were being admitted for something different but just happened to have covid.
Typical NHS admissions per day are around 40,000, of which at peak covid was 4,000, so the scope for other admissions to get badged up as covid due to current prevalence is enormous.
Not going to get much above a million a day.
A good summary:
https://www.newsweek.com/how-dr-fauci-other-officials-withheld-information-chinas-coronavirus-experiments-1652002
Sadly we may never have the answers to all our vital questions about Wuhan/covid origins because the argument has been dominated and poisoned by liars on one side (China, Daszak, lancet editors, fauci) and trumpite nutters on the other. The world deserves better. 20m dead deserve better
Now that it is a factor, they are sensibly and pragmatically panicking. So they should.
Scotland, Wales and NI may well be over- cautious. Johnson has still thrown the dice and hoped for the best. If he wins it is down to lady luck. It he doesn't win people might die who otherwise wouldn't have died.
(I hope he wins, I am just saying the mechanics behind the win are very dodgy.)
https://www.news24.com/news24/southafrica/news/rates-of-covid-19-hospitalisation-lower-in-fourth-wave-nicd-20211222
My favourite lines:
"In this wave, in both the public and private sector, we haven't seen a trend in an increase requirement for oxygen in hospital admitted patients."
"She said in the last five weeks, there had also been a decrease in the number of patients treated in the intensive care unit. "
However unquestionably Drake and Hawkins skated along a very fine line, and Good Queen Bess did little or nothing to maintain any sort of good relationships with her one-time brother-in-law. She didn't do much for her cousin Mary, either, of course.
In fact it's probably lucky she didn't have any children.
Although one of the few good things James VII & I did was father his eldest son, who sadly died. Had he become Henry IX we might well have avoided the Civil War.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/dec/18/robert-f-kennedy-jr-cheryl-hines-party-vaccinated-guests
Had a party at his house. Invite said everyone should be vaxxed.
Hope it goes off quickly. Recommend Gin.
I think it gives a hint of what the narrative of the book might be.
They are well jabbed so it can’t be a lack of vax
Edit: tho this article suggests the problem is waning immunity in the old and sluggish boostering
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/12/8/record-covid-cases-in-s-korea-as-immunity-wanes-among-elderly
Compared to the other major European nations they are actually slowing down their vaccine programme, the UK has very quickly ramped up from plodding along to a state of emergency on vaccines. If we can do it they should have been able to as well.
During the end of this year's earlier lockdowns I was accused of being a lazy-arsed pussy for my caution. Yet I was out and about working and mixing it with the hoi poloi whilst PB Steve Baker style keyboard warriors were banging away with their hard man rhetoric from the hermitically sealed safety of their Mum's basements.
What caveats are you going to give us though? They are a younger population compared to geriatric and obese UK? New waves always start in younger more social age groups who tend not to need as much hospital support? They are in a different seasonal weather system than our relentless murk and cold? Not as worried as us about winter NHS pressure like Flu and slips on ice? Doesn’t zip around South Africa as quickly as packed in Britain? They didn’t come into Omicron as hot as we running delta?
Poor old Boris has long for and against columns when all he wants is a party hat ☹️
Meanwhile your government is yawning as it hands out 3 booster jabs a day. Mental
I understand that you could be a Conservative voter, but then a serious of bad news comes out which the government of the day can be blamed, but I find it odd that the Conservative vote goes down and the Labour vote goes up.
The Conservative and Labour parties are at different ends of the spectrum. If you were disillusioned with the Conservatives, surely you'd either drift right (to Reform) or drift left (to the LD) or sit on your hands (so overall Con goes down, but everyone goes up).
But that rarely happens. Con goes down, Labour goes up; and vice versa.
I do wonder if a large part of the electorate are so disengaged with politics they think the only choices on offer are Labour or Conservative.
I'm convinced the reason Clegg did so well in 2010 wasn't because of any debates, but because a huge amount of the electorate suddenly realised that there was actually three choices, and no, the ballot paper that lists the options isn't just Labour, Conservative, then the 10 joke candidates.
Am I right in thinking that. Most normal people (ie, no one on PB therefore) don't realise there are more than two choices?
Scotland, Wales and NI have thrown all caution to the wind and jumped headfirst into restrictions without any proof that they're required.
If you are thinking of removing someone's civil liberties then the only acceptable grounds to do so is it has been proven to be necessary beyond all reasonable doubt. "The precautionary principle" is just complete bollocks, would you kill or incarcerate a suspected serial killer whom you've got no evidence is actually the killer on "the precautionary principle" or would you gather the evidence first?
Destroying lives and livelihoods by stripping away liberties, on a hunch that it might be necessary, is the real gamble. Waiting until you know it is necessary is doing only what is necessary, when it is necessary.
Should we really ignore the failings of any politician in a position of power simply because of Johnson ?
Even as Omicron overtakes Western Europe, Delta is still killing a lot of people further east
I retort, he’s sure proving a lucky Godsend to us libdems right now 🤣
But seriously, UK government could have boosted booster programme a few weeks earlier? Or is that nit picking?
I guess its the lesser vaccinated?
“Drakeford contrasted the Welsh administration’s position with what he called the “state of paralysis” of Boris Johnson’s government over whether new restrictions were needed.
“They are paralysed by their internal divisions and are unable to act on it,” he said. “When we see the evidence, and we’re told about the actions we can take to protect people, we will take them. I think there’s a real contrast with the paralysis of a UK government simply unable to act.””
The UKG is not “paralysed”. It is deeply, rightly reluctant to take drastic, harmful action - destroying businesses and damaging lives - until it sees data to justify it. The data does not yet exist. Arguably with each hour that passes it points in the opposite direction. But we just don’t know yet
The worst behaviour of the Devolved governments during Covid has been as bad as any of the farcical wank at Westminster
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/22/wales-enforce-rule-of-six-help-tackle-omicron-spread
- We are doing very, very, well on boosters, compared with most comparable countries. We started large-scale boosters earlier than most, and we're now currently behind only Israel in boosters per 100K population. We're also continuing to roll them out fast, so we'll very soon overtake even Israel. So, good marks for that, and also for the initial prioritisation which means that we've got the vast majority of the most vulnerable protected.
- But it's equally true that we could easily have been in an even better position, at less effort, if only the JCVI hadn't stuck to the six-month gap for so long (as I and many others here, notably @MaxPB, have been arguing for a long time). For once, this wasn't the fault of the government, reports at the time said ministers were keen to get on with it, but the JCVI dragged their feet even though the data was already clear. Of course in theory the govt could have over-ruled them, but that's very hard politically and I'm not sure the precedent would be a good one, so I'm not surprised that they didn't.