This morning’s front pages are quite unusual for the PM in that his announcement on Christmas mostly gets generally positive coverage. Given the way his personal ratings have plummeted in recent weeks the Tories must be hoping that this might turn the tide.
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The media has had a dreadful crisis
Either way, as we await the known unknowns of the Omicron wave, it’s wild that No 10 staff have done as much to undermine trust in vital public health messages as mad conspiracists on YouTube. These Downing Street geniuses have yet again dealt a body-blow to longterm levels of trust in politicians and the political class in this country – and with the odd exception, they all still work there. Forgive me; they all still work “for us”. Have they finally now caught on that careless cheese and wine costs lives? I wouldn’t bank on it. They evidently didn’t learn the lesson even after discovering that careless automobile-based eye tests cost lives.
Anyway, speaking of work meetings, weakling king Johnson is now reduced to holding two-hour-plus cabinets at which the decision is not to make a decision yet.
The good news for the Tories is that it does all seem to be about Johnson rather than them generally. That means they should get a very strong bounce once he is gone. However, they need to get the timing of that right as beyond Sunak - who is himself exceptionally limited - there do not seem to be any even remotely credible candidates to replace him.
Long-term, though, Johnson has done exceptional damage to his party and to the country. The Parliamentary party is packed full of populist nationalist culture warriors with a very strong aversion to geopolitical and trade realities, the rule of law, liberty and democracy. That will not end well for either the Tories or, more importantly, for all of us.
A very worthwhile 15 minutes’ reading, not just a rant about how science has been corrupted by large companies and the need for funding, and by activist groups, but also a useful analysis of how we can use the experience of the pandemic to positively influence scientific advances in future.
I have heard similar third hand from a senior civil servant.
Which if true, given the way Cabinet played out and the views of backbenchers, does make me wonder just what the feck happened to our democracy.
I suspect that, after the fractious Cabinet meeting the other day, there will be resignations if more severe restrictions are to be imposed.
Given that the Opposition are all in favour of the increased restrictions, it will probably take Graham Brady to point out that there will be a hundred letters on his desk if the government goes ahead.
"The chief operating officer at CUH, Dr Ewen Cameron said: "About 80 per cent of the people admitted to Addenbrooke’s with Covid, to intensive care units and general Covid wards, are unvaccinated." (*)
If the NHS fails due to Omicron, a vast proportion of that failure would be down to the selfish fools (Hi, Dura_Ace!) who choose not to get vaccinated when they can. If we go into a lockdown (**), it will be because of the pressure they are putting on the NHS. And you don't even have to get Covid to be affected by them: get ill for another reason, or have an accident, and you may not get the treatment you require. And is we are forced into a lockdown, we all suffer.
Their mindless, stupid selfishness will harm all of us. It's time they paid for their arrogance. Tax the fuc*ers. Treat them not with understanding for their scientific illiteracy and cr@p they spread: treat them with the contempt they deserve.
(*) https://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/news/cambridge-news/cambs-man-told-he-could-22518001
(**) Hopefully not.
I refer everyone to OGH's last paragraph, viz
'The big shadow hanging over the latest announcement, of course, is that it is a gamble. It might just further the spread of the latest variant, lead to more infections and put greater pressure on the NHS. More people might die.'
Which is, of course, correct. And even if fewer people die, and, because the impact of the disease on the individual is less, and the NHS can 'just about' manage, there's still going to be an effect on ;life generally. Teachers are going to be off, so schools will be disrupted, workplaces are going to have to cope with staff shortages, goods won't arrive because drivers (etc) are sick; the list goes on.
I posted yesterday something to the effect that I never thought I'd have much sympathy for the selfish wrecker currently posing as PM, but this definitely wasn't what he signed up for, and I very much doubt that this will be his happiest Christmas.
The various Cole households, similarly are hoping for the best, enjoying each others company and hoping, hoping to get through to New Year without our plans being disrupted!
1. An obvious and substantial uptick in the total number of Covid patients clogging the hospitals, which can be directly attributed to the rise in cases
2. Cases haven't peaked and started falling again as in South Africa, i.e. there's good evidence that the pressure isn't going to ease anytime soon
3. A generous business support package to stop half the hospitality and leisure sector being wiped out this time. Claiming that furlough (or, failing that, very generous grants to cover wages instead) is not needed if, for example, restaurants are still technically allowed to trade - but only with the rule of six, 2m distancing, and outdoors in January - won't cut it with anyone
4. That the Parliamentary vote approving the lockdown states that it is strictly time limited, and that all of the restrictions are going to be dumped at the end of it, so that both people and businesses know when all the Covid crap is going in the bin and can plan with confidence accordingly
Much of the Tory Party, the economy and the citizenry are reaching the end of their patience with being told to keep making sacrifices every time the hospitals get busy. But if all of the above conditions are met then I think Johnson's fractious backbenchers might be willing to wear one more lockdown, of no more than four weeks' duration, if it's presented as a means to defer some of the infections whilst the booster campaign is still in progress. And that's it.
Admittedly this seems to have been because certain fairly senior civil servants couldn’t bear the thought of home schooling their own children again rather than any epidemiological or wider educational reason, but it’s not true to say they’ve always advocated tighter restrictions.
And even if hospitality and cultural businesses manage to survive in the short term, the long term effect of the precedent for default policy approach to similar threats (backed up by models not populated by data but merely “uncertainties”) will make most permanently unviable.
I sometimes wonder if the “scientific” advice to ministers would be different if they were forced to confront the short and long term economic and societal consequences of what they are proposing (rather than just blithely dismiss as “not a matter for them”). If they are allowed to make their own models on the basis of their own agreed guesstimated inputs, and use them to urge pre-emptive (“earlier the better”) action then where are the competing economic models that can be offered up as counter to it. I suppose nobody in This Govt is interested in those because of what they tell them about Brexit...
The public mood might shift sufficiently to get politicians to reconsider, should we end up back in lockdown and the Government decides to try to heap the blame for it on the refusers, but right now it ain't happening.
The country is more than just one big chain of hospitals.
If we have a rolling programme of destructive restrictions (which may or may not do any blessed good regardless) lasting for eternity, then who and what is going to pay for the hospitals?
But then, he should have resigned last Friday anyway. He’s been a dead man walking since that result was announced, as the cabinet demonstrated on Monday.
The first to produce a similar vaccine administered nasally will make a much bigger fortune.
The level of GDP is now 1.5% below where it was pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) at Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2019, revised from the previous estimate of 2.1% below, because of upward revisions to growth in 2020
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/quarterlynationalaccounts/julytoseptember2021
We can all play this game. Of course they would. But it still doesn’t mean that the decisions that they take would be good ones for the country as a whole.
And I suspect that even those in hospitals would like such things to result in funding them properly, with sufficient spare (or at least some sort of reserve) capacity and resources to respond to national emergencies, not to shut down society every time they get stretched to the limit. Which in the long run will only make the former more of a pipe dream.
https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/london-playbook/scoop-omicron-milder-in-uk-new-years-fireworks-liz-vs-no-10/
Also he knows he has the numbers thanks to Sir Kier. So he could very easily just say “the numbers mean we can’t delay”, impose it and then validate it after the event.
This said, it’s really hard to believe the data will be any more supportive of restrictions by Boxing Day than they are today. I think they’ll wait for the post Xmas case uptick, show a zoomed in graph of an “exponential” increase in hospitalisations over 3 days and see if that gets it over the line.
What has been cancelled are large-scale municipal and state events, which are in most cases a very modern invention. They’re rubbish anyway.
If it had been available yesterday @MaxPB and his missus could have gone to visit family.
We don't seem to have many off yet in Leicester.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10334671/DAILY-MAIL-COMMENT-Jab-refuseniks-hold-UK-ransom.html
Not a pop at either of you. Its prodding the language that has Brits abroad considered in a completely different way to every other nationality living here.
Personally, I have zero problems with needles. Any residual fear totally dissolved when I received chemotherapy and subsequently had to self-inject blood thinners twice a day for half a year. Easy peasy. Saved my life.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/08/south-korea-hospitals-under-pressure-as-record-7175-covid-cases-in-a-day
What happened to our democracy? Boris Johnson.
It was good to see last night in America Joe Biden tackled Omicron in a very Presidential way: recommending booster jabs and the unvaccinated to get jabbed; activating FEMA to boost supply for hospitals, ambulances and vaccination centres; and telling people to be calm and that this is not March of last year. Not a hint of talking about restrictions or lockdowns or any other madness.
The scientists, Civil Service, media and politicians here have become addicted to restrictions, to demand-side measures to manage the NHS. That's not their job, or their right. Post-vaccinations the politicians, scientists etc need to firmly be told that their job is to manage the supply side of the NHS. If that means taxing [preferably antivaxxers] and spending then that's their responsibility, lockdowns and restrictions are not. They need to rule out completely further restrictions.
If Whitty and Vallance or Gove or anyone else can't get on board with that, then they should resign or be fired.
That's the central question IMO - and we don't know yet.
(There are other questions, such as whether Omicron causes long Covid, or whether it has other effects. But these are long-term unknowns and can't really influence policy making as much as the immediate potential hospitalisation crisis.)
Even if it made you feel rough for a couple of days every year, you could time it for when most convenient.
I get jabbed on a regular basis and am astonished how painless the process is, compared to my recollections of 60+ years ago.
My sister-in-law never gets jabbed and I strongly suspect that it was a fear of needles is that prevented her getting vaccinated. Once she'd caught Covid she was full of regret, and she was lucky not to be hospitalised.
I will never be an Emirati, and neither will my children and grandchildren, even if they are born here and live their whole lives here.
3x as many infections * 50% fewer hospitalisations per case...
Still equals a 50% rise in hospitalisations.
And we don't know anything for sure yet.
But we do know South Africa (and Guateng province) have survived Omicron without restrictions. And we do know that hospitalisations aren't much lagged.
So, given that Omicron is a massive share of cases, if we don't see hospitalisations ("for", not "with") soaring in the next day or so, we can probably start to breath a sigh of relief. In London, for example, we're probably not much more than a week or ten days away from Omicron peaking.
Ah, well, welcome anyway Barti Du.
https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1473560185109041153?s=20
That cohort were largely boosted over the summer, and they are worrying about fading antibody levels. Whether it's necessary isn't really possible to say for now.
We're just asking that he doesn't advance.
time and spacePB - lets hope its Moffatt writing in not Chibnall.All with the background of massively rising gas prices in Europe, and Putin threatening to restrict supplies further in the event of Westerners challenging what’s going on.
If you don't stop telling me to be a twat, I'll be forced to be a bigger twat.
He's totally lost the plot, hasn't he? I wonder if he's scared of disorder at home over his calamitously inept Covid response. But if he is, it's a bit stupid to send his entire army to try and control Ukraine.
At least I think that is the point?