BREAKING: CDC estimates 73% of new coronavirus cases in the U.S. are caused by the Omicron variant, up from 3% last week
The real time experiment begins.....
That can't be right, surely?
No
We know this can double every 1.5 days
00:01 Day 1: 3%
Noon day 2: 6%
11:59 day 3: 12%
Noon: day 5: 24%
11:59 day 6: 48%
Noon day 8: 96%
Easy. 1 week
No, because you're doubling percentages as thought they were absolute numbers. If that was true, it would mean that Delta cases somehow reduce as Omicron cases increase.
Or put another way, if on Day 1 you have 97k Delta and 3k Omicron, then on Day 8 you might well have 96k Omicron cases, but you'll still have (roughly) 97k Delta, so only 50% Omicron in total.
Mebbes. But you still get the picture. With a virus that doubles this fast it can take over at bewildering, even unbelievable speed
As is the nature with exponential growth, it is intuitively hard to grasp how small numbers explode to big numbers seemingly overnight
Because most things we encounter do NOT grow exponentially
Imagine a tree that doubled in size every season. For the first few years it would be nothing. An acorn, then a tiny green shoot. Then one year it would be one foot tall in winter, then eight foot tall the next winter. A year later it would be 64 feet tall. Big. Just one more year after that it would be 1000 feet tall and one of the biggest organisms on earth.
We almost never see this in nature so its hard to grasp when we DO
I mean technically it grows in a logistic way, not an exponential one. Then the real question is how big the population is - if of the boostered people only 5% are vulnerable, and double vaxxed maybe 50%, then the total population for it to grow in is quite small at which point the logistic curve will head it off in short order.
I think there's also something that Delta has to decrease quite rapidly as Omicron grows, as its number of potential targets reduced quite rapidly.
Me on the phone my dad this morning: "Everyone I know has got Omicron, or knows someone with Omicron. Everyone's Christmas plans are up in the air. Everyone's depressed"
My dad: "This the worst I've seen the English cricket team in my lifetime"
We're not even facing the likes of Warne and McGrath.
I recall sitting in the MCG, in the 90s and from the crowd as much as I disliked it, it was even more impressive watching Warne and McGrath bowl in real life. The tension of almost every delivery, the extremely aggressive fielding etc
Each English batsman walking out, there was an atmosphere of when not if they'd be walking back to the pavilion.
It must be an amazing experience watching cricket at the MCG with its 100,000 capacity. It's one of those things I'd like to do but probably never will.
Drakeford is currently overseeing the most successful Welsh Labour Party since 2001 and they have been endorsed again and again by the electorate. I hope Mark Drakeford continues
Not I think Boris will come back from this, but Squeaky Osborne managed to rescue his reputation.
Cameron and Osborne didn't care much about the Red Wall? I am not sure the people booing him at the Olympics were going to vote for him anyway, it is the Red Wall that voted for Johnson that seems to be loudly rejecting him and that is shown by this and also the polling
Me on the phone my dad this morning: "Everyone I know has got Omicron, or knows someone with Omicron. Everyone's Christmas plans are up in the air. Everyone's depressed"
My dad: "This the worst I've seen the English cricket team in my lifetime"
We're not even facing the likes of Warne and McGrath.
I recall sitting in the MCG, in the 90s and from the crowd as much as I disliked it, it was even more impressive watching Warne and McGrath bowl in real life. The tension of almost every delivery, the extremely aggressive fielding etc
Each English batsman walking out, there was an atmosphere of when not if they'd be walking back to the pavilion.
It must be an amazing experience watching cricket at the MCG with its 100,000 capacity. It's one of those things I'd like to do but probably never will.
It is an amazing experience and if you get the opportunity I'd recommend it.
Having said that, despite being about twice as many people in the crowd I would say the atmosphere is less intense than say being at Anfield.
Partially that's because its a different sport with quite a different intensity in the first place, but partially its because the crowd is quite spread out across a much bigger ground.
Still don't let that downplay it, its an incredible experience and one I'm lucky to have had.
Drakeford is currently overseeing the most successful Welsh Labour Party since 2001 and they have been endorsed again and again by the electorate. I hope Mark Drakeford continues
He is only in power by a coalition with the Greens
And you do not have to suffer the NHS and education failures
@Cookie@Philip_Thompson. Similar points so will reply together. Yes my first COVID. And exactly six months from second jab. Yes I think you are both probably right. My only point is that we haven't really reached the "just a cold" stage yet. I'm coming up to two full weeks off work, which is more than a cold. Best thing folk can do is get vaccinated asap. I wouldn't like the idea to take hold that it is so mild that folk don't need to bother getting jabbed. Or that they are skiving by being ill. Neither is true, and both are possible if the "just a cold" idea takes hold. Like British Rail, we're getting there with this virus. Just not as quickly or efficiently as we'd hoped. There may be unexpected delays.
Drakeford is currently overseeing the most successful Welsh Labour Party since 2001 and they have been endorsed again and again by the electorate. I hope Mark Drakeford continues
He's done a good job riding on Boris's coattails for the vaccine rollout.
Not I think Boris will come back from this, but Squeaky Osborne managed to rescue his reputation.
Cameron and Osborne didn't care much about the Red Wall? I am not sure the people booing him at the Olympics were going to vote for him anyway, it is the Red Wall that voted for Johnson that seems to be loudly rejecting him and that is shown by this and also the polling
The darts in London is not red wall per se. Its the pre-Christmas party for mostly Londoners. Not sure I agree about the Olympics not being Tory voters, its very middle class attendance, who are the people Cameron and Osborne needed and got to vote for them.
But Boris isn't coming back from this, as Osborne brand was never look at me I'm popular, it was I am serious and steady chancellor. Boris is "my mate Boris, what a laugh".
Drakeford is currently overseeing the most successful Welsh Labour Party since 2001 and they have been endorsed again and again by the electorate. I hope Mark Drakeford continues
He is only in power by a coalition with the Greens
And you do not have to suffer the NHS and education failures
Then the electorate should reject him if he's as terrible as you say, yet Welsh Labour are way ahead in the polls and were recently re-elected in their best result in years.
Not I think Boris will come back from this, but Squeaky Osborne managed to rescue his reputation.
Cameron and Osborne didn't care much about the Red Wall? I am not sure the people booing him at the Olympics were going to vote for him anyway, it is the Red Wall that voted for Johnson that seems to be loudly rejecting him and that is shown by this and also the polling
The darts in London is not red wall per se. Its the pre-Christmas party for mostly Londoners. Not sure I agree about the Olympics not being Tory voters, its very middle class attendance, who are the people Cameron and Osborne needed and got to vote for them.
It's not exactly metropolitan London though, it's the kind of voters you would expect to be more Borisy at the least
Not I think Boris will come back from this, but Squeaky Osborne managed to rescue his reputation.
Cameron and Osborne didn't care much about the Red Wall? I am not sure the people booing him at the Olympics were going to vote for him anyway, it is the Red Wall that voted for Johnson that seems to be loudly rejecting him and that is shown by this and also the polling
And when it comes to stereotypes, the darts crowd is the classic small-C audience where his shtick goes down best.
Drakeford is currently overseeing the most successful Welsh Labour Party since 2001 and they have been endorsed again and again by the electorate. I hope Mark Drakeford continues
He is only in power by a coalition with the Greens
And you do not have to suffer the NHS and education failures
Then the electorate should reject him if he's as terrible as you say, yet Welsh Labour are way ahead in the polls and were recently re-elected in their best result in years.
But had to do a deal with the greens to pass their programmes
Drakeford is currently overseeing the most successful Welsh Labour Party since 2001 and they have been endorsed again and again by the electorate. I hope Mark Drakeford continues
He is only in power by a coalition with the Greens
And you do not have to suffer the NHS and education failures
Then the electorate should reject him if he's as terrible as you say, yet Welsh Labour are way ahead in the polls and were recently re-elected in their best result in years.
But had to do a deal with the greens to pass their programmes
Weren't they short by literally one seat, their best performance in years
Not I think Boris will come back from this, but Squeaky Osborne managed to rescue his reputation.
Taxing hot pasties does not even come close to having a fecking massive cheese and wine party every night whilst the rest of UK was at home and sons could not hug their own mums at father's funerals.
Not I think Boris will come back from this, but Squeaky Osborne managed to rescue his reputation.
Cameron and Osborne didn't care much about the Red Wall? I am not sure the people booing him at the Olympics were going to vote for him anyway, it is the Red Wall that voted for Johnson that seems to be loudly rejecting him and that is shown by this and also the polling
The darts in London is not red wall per se. Its the pre-Christmas party for mostly Londoners. Not sure I agree about the Olympics not being Tory voters, its very middle class attendance, who are the people Cameron and Osborne needed and got to vote for them.
It's not exactly metropolitan London though, it's the kind of voters you would expect to be more Borisy at the least
I don't know. Tickets are bloody expensive and hard to come by these days. Lots of bankers etc go to it. Its become a bit of one you have to do as part of the pre-Christmas party scene. Sure it isn't the people who dine at the Ritz every night of the week, but the red flat Northern Red Wall lot are priced out of even thinking about going.
Drakeford is currently overseeing the most successful Welsh Labour Party since 2001 and they have been endorsed again and again by the electorate. I hope Mark Drakeford continues
He is only in power by a coalition with the Greens
And you do not have to suffer the NHS and education failures
Then the electorate should reject him if he's as terrible as you say, yet Welsh Labour are way ahead in the polls and were recently re-elected in their best result in years.
Not I think Boris will come back from this, but Squeaky Osborne managed to rescue his reputation.
Taxing hot pasties does not even come close to having a fecking massive cheese and wine party every night whilst the rest of UK was at home and sons could not hug their own mums at father's funerals.
Osborne was portrayed as much more than that with things like the bedroom tax. He was certainly labelled as pretty heartless austerity chancellor, back to wigan pier, cuts are killing people and all that, and it was pretty relentless.
But you are right Boris is screwed. Both the hypocrisy and incompetence.
Question is, has Johnson tanked the Tory brand or just his own.
Will the Tories be able to re-invent themselves again?
Yes
Let's see the evidence then
There isn't evidence for anything yet.
Right now we have midterm polls. That's it. The polls are basically what Ed Miliband was getting seven years ago.
So that could mean the polls are pointing to Boris getting a small majority over Keir's Labour like Cameron achieved following comparable polling.
Or this could be a temporary blip and the polls could bounce back the other way after the winter once it's clear the vaccines worked and we didn't have the feared collapse or lockdown like the Netherlands.
Or matters could deteriorate further leading ultimately to a Labour majority.
Quite frankly we don't know anything other than the polls now are back at 2014 levels as it stands. The rest is unknown. The future is unknown. Anyone who says otherwise is trying to pull the wool over your eyes if not their own.
Drakeford is currently overseeing the most successful Welsh Labour Party since 2001 and they have been endorsed again and again by the electorate. I hope Mark Drakeford continues
He is only in power by a coalition with the Greens
And you do not have to suffer the NHS and education failures
Then the electorate should reject him if he's as terrible as you say, yet Welsh Labour are way ahead in the polls and were recently re-elected in their best result in years.
A lot of people vote Tory not because they necessarily think they are the nicest people in the world or just like them, it is competence that the economy won't be trashed, things will run ok etc. Cameron and Osborne got all sorts thrown at them for being entitled poshos, but they won because they appeared steady when it came to dealing with day to day things.
Whoever comes after Boris has to restore that against a very very difficult backdrop of inflation and post-COVID / post-Brexit world.
Me on the phone my dad this morning: "Everyone I know has got Omicron, or knows someone with Omicron. Everyone's Christmas plans are up in the air. Everyone's depressed"
My dad: "This the worst I've seen the English cricket team in my lifetime"
We're not even facing the likes of Warne and McGrath.
I recall sitting in the MCG, in the 90s and from the crowd as much as I disliked it, it was even more impressive watching Warne and McGrath bowl in real life. The tension of almost every delivery, the extremely aggressive fielding etc
Each English batsman walking out, there was an atmosphere of when not if they'd be walking back to the pavilion.
It must be an amazing experience watching cricket at the MCG with its 100,000 capacity. It's one of those things I'd like to do but probably never will.
It is an amazing experience and if you get the opportunity I'd recommend it.
Having said that, despite being about twice as many people in the crowd I would say the atmosphere is less intense than say being at Anfield.
Partially that's because its a different sport with quite a different intensity in the first place, but partially its because the crowd is quite spread out across a much bigger ground.
Still don't let that downplay it, its an incredible experience and one I'm lucky to have had.
Not I think Boris will come back from this, but Squeaky Osborne managed to rescue his reputation.
Cameron and Osborne didn't care much about the Red Wall? I am not sure the people booing him at the Olympics were going to vote for him anyway, it is the Red Wall that voted for Johnson that seems to be loudly rejecting him and that is shown by this and also the polling
The darts in London is not red wall per se. Its the pre-Christmas party for mostly Londoners. Not sure I agree about the Olympics not being Tory voters, its very middle class attendance, who are the people Cameron and Osborne needed and got to vote for them.
It's not exactly metropolitan London though, it's the kind of voters you would expect to be more Borisy at the least
I don't know. Tickets are bloody expensive and hard to come by these days. Lots of bankers etc go to it. Its become a bit of one you have to do as part of the pre-Christmas party scene. Sure it isn't the people who dine at the Ritz every night of the week, but the red flat Northern Red Wall lot are priced out of even thinking about going.
Never really seen much interest in darts up here. Always seemed like a Southern thing. That may just be me.
Its hard to emphasise how much, as noted below as the UKs favourite new past time is impacting the case figures. We have testing through the roof right now on top of what was already a very strong testing regime so no surprise we are going to find more cases.
Out and about in the lovely countryside today I stopped at a village pharmacy and picked up the LFT kit myself, just in case, which illustrates what is happening. Never would have seen myself doing that until the last few days. The public have listened and they are by and large doing their damnest to do the right thing and it will have an impact
I notce a comment below from another_richard on the boosters and age groups and its correct. The admissions data tells us that the over 65s are the single biggest slice of hospitalisations and death but, I think, this is now porportionately reducing thanks to the booster programme. Protect them over winter and you probably will get a working result.
One other thing, and maybe its just me. but listening to various radio outlets today, was there more air time given to other people in medicine and the stats modelling world challenging the SAGE projections or their proposed actions?? None of these people sounded like a loonbag but there was a notable set of counter arguments on a few fronts.
I maybe am not listening in to the Radio4s, the Talkradios, Times Radio etc often enough to see the full picture but it felt like there was a bit of a shift.
One of the things the UK has got absolutely right, and where the US (except Colorado) has been well behind the curve is LFTs.
We have a Christmas Eve dinner on Friday with friends; we'll all take an LFT ahead of time, not least because one of our guests has a 92 year old parent they'll see over the holidays.
Comments
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/sport/welsh-government-announce-new-restrictions-22526201
Of course Rishi doubled the money to Wales yesteday so he has the exchequer to thank for any compensation to business
He tried the circuit breaker and it failed but he does have some sensible policies including reviewing council tax and holiday home ownership
Of course Boris is gifting him his poll rating
Owen she was literally found guilty in court of libel
Having said that, despite being about twice as many people in the crowd I would say the atmosphere is less intense than say being at Anfield.
Partially that's because its a different sport with quite a different intensity in the first place, but partially its because the crowd is quite spread out across a much bigger ground.
Still don't let that downplay it, its an incredible experience and one I'm lucky to have had.
And you do not have to suffer the NHS and education failures
Similar points so will reply together. Yes my first COVID. And exactly six months from second jab.
Yes I think you are both probably right.
My only point is that we haven't really reached the "just a cold" stage yet. I'm coming up to two full weeks off work, which is more than a cold.
Best thing folk can do is get vaccinated asap.
I wouldn't like the idea to take hold that it is so mild that folk don't need to bother getting jabbed. Or that they are skiving by being ill. Neither is true, and both are possible if the "just a cold" idea takes hold.
Like British Rail, we're getting there with this virus. Just not as quickly or efficiently as we'd hoped. There may be unexpected delays.
But Boris isn't coming back from this, as Osborne brand was never look at me I'm popular, it was I am serious and steady chancellor. Boris is "my mate Boris, what a laugh".
How will he cope?
The great unravelling may have begun.
He must know it is over
Will the Tories be able to re-invent themselves again?
But you are right Boris is screwed. Both the hypocrisy and incompetence.
Though TSE rejoined today and I will the minute Boris goes which looks like the case for quite a few here on PB
The party has three Christmases to recover which is near a lifetime in politics
Right now we have midterm polls. That's it. The polls are basically what Ed Miliband was getting seven years ago.
So that could mean the polls are pointing to Boris getting a small majority over Keir's Labour like Cameron achieved following comparable polling.
Or this could be a temporary blip and the polls could bounce back the other way after the winter once it's clear the vaccines worked and we didn't have the feared collapse or lockdown like the Netherlands.
Or matters could deteriorate further leading ultimately to a Labour majority.
Quite frankly we don't know anything other than the polls now are back at 2014 levels as it stands. The rest is unknown. The future is unknown. Anyone who says otherwise is trying to pull the wool over your eyes if not their own.
Is anyone surprised
Whoever comes after Boris has to restore that against a very very difficult backdrop of inflation and post-COVID / post-Brexit world.
Always seemed like a Southern thing. That may just be me.
Cheeky merlot.
We have a Christmas Eve dinner on Friday with friends; we'll all take an LFT ahead of time, not least because one of our guests has a 92 year old parent they'll see over the holidays.
Where is it from?