Thanks, Richard, really good piece. She's a lay alright. Set up to fail - in the crazies eyes - on NI. And in any case she's rather vacuous. Parties tend to veer away from what they've just had so I expect BJ's replacement, when it happens, to be a fairly solid thinker.
Would one describe a man as being "vacuous"?
Certainly described Sean Bailey and his campaign for the mayoralty.
Strikes me as more in the ditzy, air-head category of men belittling women
Ditzy and airhead are certainly gendered terms. I’m much less convinced about vacuous.
I shall just point out that some private pilots refer to being "airheaded" as a compliment as only airheads can be trusted with certain tasks relating to handling, moving or flying aircraft.
Thanks, Richard, really good piece. She's a lay alright. Set up to fail - in the crazies eyes - on NI. And in any case she's rather vacuous. Parties tend to veer away from what they've just had so I expect BJ's replacement, when it happens, to be a fairly solid thinker.
Would one describe a man as being "vacuous"?
Yes. Gavin Williamson is the most perfect fit for vacuous. He is a man. The epitome of a vacuous man.
Good header, Richard. I don’t believe for a moment that disliking the direction of travel on Covid was the real reason for Frost’s resignation. Rather he realised that he wasn’t going to be able to maintain the bluster any longer.
He has said that pretty clearly and unambiguously. I'd have guessed otherwise, but as he's said it so clearly I think I have to believe what he says.
Many cabinet ministers have said one thing is the reason for their resignation when it's actually another. In any case, normally there's more than one reason. As we saw today, the Cabinet have blocked any restrictions. Moreover, Frost's departure seems to have been agreed some time ago, when this wasn't on the horizon.
What people say and what they actually do are two different things.
Give me 'many' examples then.
Every cabinet minister who ever wrote "to spend more time with my family"?
I mean, these people entered politics specifically to get away from their families.
Good header, Richard. I don’t believe for a moment that disliking the direction of travel on Covid was the real reason for Frost’s resignation. Rather he realised that he wasn’t going to be able to maintain the bluster any longer.
He has said that pretty clearly and unambiguously. I'd have guessed otherwise, but as he's said it so clearly I think I have to believe what he says.
Many cabinet ministers have said one thing is the reason for their resignation when it's actually another. In any case, normally there's more than one reason. As we saw today, the Cabinet have blocked any restrictions. Moreover, Frost's departure seems to have been agreed some time ago, when this wasn't on the horizon.
What people say and what they actually do are two different things.
Give me 'many' examples then.
Every cabinet minister who ever wrote "to spend more time with my family"?
I mean, these people entered politics specifically to get away from their families.
At Lingfield this afternoon enjoying a moderate afternoon's jump racing, I saw two drones in the distance presumably carrying real time pictures of the action for exchange players.
I believe there was a bill put forward to legislate against these drones which can be a hazard and a danger - one of the issues is where the landowner has given consent for the operation from their field and garden.
I've not followed the ins and outs but I believe the Government has effectively blocked the proposed legislation by not providing debating time.
Coincidentally, a similar proposal in Ireland looks likely to be passed by the Dáil.
Thanks, Richard, really good piece. She's a lay alright. Set up to fail - in the crazies eyes - on NI. And in any case she's rather vacuous. Parties tend to veer away from what they've just had so I expect BJ's replacement, when it happens, to be a fairly solid thinker.
Thanks, Richard, really good piece. She's a lay alright. Set up to fail - in the crazies eyes - on NI. And in any case she's rather vacuous. Parties tend to veer away from what they've just had so I expect BJ's replacement, when it happens, to be a fairly solid thinker.
NEW: Matt Hancock is in the cheese and wine photo from the Downing Street garden, Telegraph can reveal.
As mentioned earlier, all this talk of cheese and wine is making me think of Mike Leigh's Abigail's Party. The only possible candidate for Beverley is Priti Patel, in some sort of shockingly loud dress and offering cocktails and cheese sticks, and the taciturn man stewing angrily in the corner would have to be Lord Frost.
There's another area I know of where this occurs. In engineering, you often have to consider what happens if something fails. Say you have a widget in a substation that, if it fails, will blow out power to a city block, and will damage the substation so much that it will require three days to be repaired. The good scenarios are that it will never fail, and everything will be hunky-dory. You do not know whether it will fail, or when - but it might. And the cost of failure is rather large.
You therefore have to make a decision: do you redesign the widget to make it less likely to fail (difficult, if you are finding it hard to quantify how often it may fail), or do you put in a layer of redundancy (e.g. fire suppression, or a backup system) so that, if it does fail, it does not damage the substation and can be easily and quickly replaced?
You consider the worst-case reasonable scenarios, because they are the ones that hurt. Now, the cost of adding that layer of redundancy might be judged as greater than the cost of a rare failure - but at least you can make that judgement.
(This then leads onto things like the swiss-cheese model of accident causations, where layers of redundancy fail in turn, but that's irrelevant for this.)
Quite a good analogy.
A few comments: Normally when conducting this kind of hazard operability study, there is data available which gives the mean-time-to-failure of said widgets. From this, risk can be estimated (based on potential loss of life/business cost against likelihood of occurrence). Once the risk is known, then mitigation can be put in place to reduce the level of risk to something that is more acceptable.
In our COVID example case, more information is now becoming available to make the risk assessment more accurate (why is this not being done?). Also, there are other forms of mitigation that could be offset against the risk other than lockdown - what happened to the nightingale hospitals, for example? Other mitigation (done for the best of intentions) may actually make things worse (unintended consequences etc). This is not an easy thing to assess, and if you are not given the full picture (and not qualified) then it is no wonder bad decisions are made.
Course, could be Truss only appears vacuous because she's sublimating her genuine beliefs in order to spout the vacuities she calculates will appeal to the selectorate for next Tory leader.
At Lingfield this afternoon enjoying a moderate afternoon's jump racing, I saw two drones in the distance presumably carrying real time pictures of the action for exchange players.
I believe there was a bill put forward to legislate against these drones which can be a hazard and a danger - one of the issues is where the landowner has given consent for the operation from their field and garden.
I've not followed the ins and outs but I believe the Government has effectively blocked the proposed legislation by not providing debating time.
Coincidentally, a similar proposal in Ireland looks likely to be passed by the Dáil.
The current law is actually quite clear and is reasonable.
You have to register all drones above 250g and there are perfectly sensible rules for where you can fly and where you can't.
I know this because I have a licence...
If they have permission to overfly the racecourse then it is OK as long as it isn't within 50m of anyone not under their control.
I've seen one at Doncaster races too, and assumed it was part of the TV setup. It was certainly professional kit, not home built stuff bodged together like mine. It stayed in the inner part of the circuit over the golf course, which was totally within the rules.
Regarding Covid, I said that they would let us have Christmas and then smash us with lockdown before new year, Awful as it is I still think that is happening.
Well, they can try. Who will obey? Their laughable defences of the garden party photo just seals the deal - most people will tell them to go super-injunction themselves.
Regarding Covid, I said that they would let us have Christmas and then smash us with lockdown before new year, Awful as it is I still think that is happening.
Well, they can try. Who will obey? Their laughable defences of the garden party photo just seals the deal - most people will tell them to go super-injunction themselves.
Whatever happened to that Government newspaper wrap around?
Most of the papers in the local coop this morning were sporting it -- big graphical logo thingy and a bit of text exhorting the reader to get a booster. The Financial Times didn't have it, but I think the other majors all did.
Thank you for chairing the meeting, @sajidjavid I enjoyed the calm and respectful tone throughout the exchanges, and found the discussion productive and insightful.
Course, could be Truss only appears vacuous because she's sublimating her genuine beliefs in order to spout the vacuities she calculates will appeal to the selectorate for next Tory leader.
In fact I judge that quite likely.
It's all getting very confusing.
Boris vaccinates. Starmer vacillates. Truss is vacuous. Frost vacates. Sunak goes on vacation.
I am relieved the cabinet have taken back control from Boris who is obviously on his way out
However, I do think covid/omicron is an extremely complex issue but I am alarmed at how the media use the same sources and do not give airtime to other opinions and voices
I do not see any need to take any more action as I believe the public are making their own decisions which is far better than any state dictat
If the cabinet prove correct against all the siren voices of the scientists, media, and the labour party, then they should see a poll recovery
However, it does follow that if they are wrong then GE 24 will be a very big challenge
Regarding Covid, I said that they would let us have Christmas and then smash us with lockdown before new year, Awful as it is I still think that is happening.
Well, they can try. Who will obey? Their laughable defences of the garden party photo just seals the deal - most people will tell them to go super-injunction themselves.
They can do one. Unless they can show definitely that omi blows the booster to pieces then I'm done.
Regarding Covid, I said that they would let us have Christmas and then smash us with lockdown before new year, Awful as it is I still think that is happening.
Well, they can try. Who will obey? Their laughable defences of the garden party photo just seals the deal - most people will tell them to go super-injunction themselves.
Don't you live in Scotland?
Yes. If they are shutting us down it will be everywhere - you think Sturgeon will let Scotland have Hogmanay is England is banned?
Christopher Snowdon @cjsnowdon The UK government has a choice between believing in vaccines and believing in quack modelling. No country with such a high % of antibodies from vaccines and prior infection should be considering any restrictions on freedom.
Janice Turner @VictoriaPeckham · 5h So we may be allowed Christmas, but forbidden New Year? And they honestly think triple-vaxxed people, pre-tested with lateral flows, will just toast 2022 alone at home? When the government partied when NO ONE was vaccinated and daily deaths were over 1,000.
Christopher Snowdon @cjsnowdon The UK government has a choice between believing in vaccines and believing in quack modelling. No country with such a high % of antibodies from vaccines and prior infection should be considering any restrictions on freedom.
The problem is even if this is true, you get zero political credit for doing so....as even if they hold up exceptionally well, we will still see increased deaths and even down the road the UK ends up better than other countries during this wave, it never will be brought up.
I personally think Sunak will wait until the Tories are in opposition
As that worked out so well for David Miliband
Sunak has a brother?
The point is David Miliband failed to challenge PM Brown in government and when in opposition lost to a more leftwing candidate, despite being strong favourite, who happened to be his brother. In opposition Sunak could lose to a rightwinger equally
Fraser Nelson: "So we have an asteroid that may hit the Earth?" Scientist: "Yes. And we have no idea how likely it is - only that it's heading towards us. NORAD were too busy tracking Santa Claus." Fraser Nelson: "But it may miss." Scientist: "Yes." Fraser Nelson: "So why are you only modelling what will happen if it hits?" Scientist: "Because the decision-makers need to consider what to do if the worst comes to the worst." Fraser Nelson: "But they might not have to do anything if it doesn't hit." Scientist: "But it may. And they need to think about what they'd do." Fraser Nelson: "Why didn't you model the fact it might miss?" Scientist: "Because that doesn't really help the decision-makers."
That Fraser Nelson article in the Spectator is really a whole load of nothing IMO. What the scientist said makes sense.
What a load of crap.
If the government are considering locking us down because of the virus then they need to know what's likely to happen with the virus. If the models say that the NHS isn't likely to be overwhelmed but those models are disregarded in favour of those that say it is, then that's operating with false information.
It's not (see TimT's reply).
It is.
If the government is weighing up their response then they need the full information. ' If the full information says for instance there's a 99.9% chance that the NHS won't be overwhelmed, but there's a 0.1% chance that it is - then do you seriously think the government should only be shown the 0.1% scenario without any qualification of caveat or rating of how likely it is?
They should get the full information, and be allowed to judge with full knowledge whether the risk of these so-called "never events" are worth acting over or not. If they don't have the full information, then they can't weigh that up.
"If the full information says for instance there's a 99.9% chance that the NHS won't be overwhelmed, but there's a 0.1% chance that it is"
But that's not what Nelson was talking about (although he moved onto that at the end). He was talking about a lack of a model that replicated some of JP Morgan's modelling, not the probabilities of any scenario.
Nelson was talking about modelling that used data that the scientists had recognised. But since this model didn't give "the right" answer it was disregarded.
If you decide in advance to disregard all models that don't give a certain outcome, then you've prejudiced your work in advance.
I might suggest you reread what I (and especially TimT) have written.
There is no point in presenting reasonable scenarios where the decision-makers need to do nothing, because that's pointless. The decision-makers need to know the scenarios where they may have to do things, so they can consider them.
The probabilities may come later.
I assumed when Max and others were going on about the Nelson article, that the scientist had said something outrageous. Instead he said something utterly sensible, and Nelson has either misunderstood the point of the modelling, or is deliberately shit-stirring. The scientist should have explained a little better, though.
No this is utterly wrong. If you have a whole range of possible scenarios and you only present the ones that result in action then you are taking the responsibility for decision making away from the politicians and giving it to the unelected scientists. By removing the scenarios where nothing needs to be done you are forcing the politicians into a position where they either do something - even if it is probably unnecessary - or they can be accused of ignoring the evidence as it was presented to them. It is absolutely vital that the advisors present all possible scenarios and weigh them for the decision makers.
It is not utterly wrong. It is presenting the scenarios that need stuff doing about them.
"Present all possible scenarios"
And how many different scenarios is that? Ten? a hundred? A thousand?
The scientists are saying: "these are the sh*t scenarios. These are the ones that, if they occur, we will need to take actions on." Presenting scenarios that need no action is pointless - because there are no actions required. It doesn't mean the politicians are being told these will happen, or that these are the only scenarios. They are the ones to worry about.
It's not that they're saying these are the only scenarios that may happen; or the probabilities of them happening; they're the ones the politicians really need to worry about.
It's simple stuff.
FPT
The problem is that right now people think the most optomistic scenario from SAGE is for a peak of 3000 admissions a day, as that is their lowest model. Except other models suggest this is NOT the lowest possible. The narrative is running that if we do nothing, we will definitely see a minimum of 3000 admissions a day. It’s dishonest. I’m not blaming the scientists entirely here, I want to know what instructions they are getting.
Then I'd blame those telling the people that this is the issue without a fair grasp on what SAGE and SPI-M-O are doing, or their terms of reference, or the specifics of decision making during a period of ignorance but with the possibility of a Never Event (as described by TimT).
That would be the attention-seekers of the media and some Twitter commentators. Who grab stuff, skim it for an attention-grabbing takeaway line, and plaster it everywhere they can.
Why use knowingly incorrect data points for model inputs, though? However you cut it that's just bad practice and now they've managed to lose their last ounce of credibility with the politicians. The fault lies with whoever is asking for them to do that, sure, but also with them for not having the professional integrity to flag that up as bad practice. They're being asked to put their finger on the scale so someone can use their findings to push the lockdown decision making process forwards. As it turned out Cabinet took exception to being presented data that has no basis in reality.
Which knowingly incorrect parameters? Looking at the Warwick paper, they had several possible Ve figures against potential levels of immune escape and booster effectiveness (high to low), and it was written and updated on the 11th of December.
TimT explained the parameters of the decision-making process in conditions of high uncertainty and with credible possibilities of a Never Event, and it follows exactly that process.
So it could either be that process, with the criteria of a Never Event as laid down over a decade ago in the last Labour Government, or its a cabal of evil scientists or a secret civil servant with a fetish for lockdowns who’s not been sprung yet.
I hate lockdowns. I personally incline to the view that there will not be a need for them. But I agree that the probabilities involved are still unclear, and that they should ensure that they have the options on the table, together with what they would or would not do, as well as the costs for them, all clearly laid out.
And, of course, as Paul Mainwood drily observed a few days ago: if we do want to adjust for a variable severity, we can simply do the less-than-arcane procedure of “multiply by a constant” against the outcomes.
For one of the three vaccine efficacy tables, they used the one not based on observation and used the 85% which used an additional 6x reduction in antibody binding efficiency. The second and slightly more contentious one is not using our own study data which gives Omicron a different manifestation of symptoms than Delta, get the central forecast simply assumes that Omicron manifests identical symptoms to Delta.
The issue I have with the kind of modelling here is that Omicron isn't an unknown unknown. We know things about it, we know fairly well what vaccine efficacy is, we know with a reasonable degree of certainty that it manifests as an upper respiratory tract virus than a lower respiratory tract one like Delta.
It's simply not right to ask the decision makers to form an opinion on the right way forwards if the best available data isn't being used and instead guesswork that we know to be worse is being used. I understand the need for expediency and that in a situation where exponential growth is a factor acting late can mean it's too late to act. I do understand that they are under pressure. However, there's simply no need to put their finger on the scales, whoever asked them to do that is trying to force a decision on lockdown and it's spectacularly back fired on them because now the politicians have lost all confidence in the modelling. The 7k central forecast from the summer had already hurt their credibility now it's completely destroyed because they have been found to be fiddling the numbers for some as yet unknown DoH bod who wants to guide the process in a specific direction.
On the whole idea of the "never scenario" it's fanciful that anything that comes with COVID is now in that category.
I also agree that we probably won't need a lockdown. My issue is that the data for that scenario isn't being presented to the politicians when it absolutely should be. It's not an unlikely scenario that Omicron is a paper tiger, yet our politicians are given that option because the unnamed party in the DoH has deemed it irrelevant to the decision making process and asked the modellers not to give their findings for that scenario. It would be a piece of piss to do it as well.
"‘Presumably others are modelling the harms caused by restrictions, including economic harms,’ says Professor Graham Medley, chairman of the Sage modelling committee."
I'm not sure that it is correct that there is still this overwhelmingly powerful portion of the conservative party that are totally fundamentalist in their attitude to Europe and call all the shots. The advanced stage of Brexit, which we are now at, is a material change in circumstance. The stuff about Northern Ireland is just not on the radar that much anymore and a lot of people don't understand it. It isn't at the same level of significance to something like the opposition to the Maastrict Treaty in the 1990's, or the yearning for a referendum in the 2010's. I don't see how this gets in the way of Truss becoming leader. Her problem, I would guess, is with the red wall MPs; and her background as a cheerleader for austerity and free market economics that go down like a bucket of sick in large parts of the country, together with her past support for remain. I did say previously that her success will depend on her ability to articulate a programme in the leadership election, and it is not clear she can, because we don't know what she really thinks at all at the moment. Her main quality is that she is adaptable and gets stuff done, but I am not sure that is enough.
The other day, I mentioned an anti-vaxxer I know from school. This is his latest missive:
"Dr Robert Malone, inventor of MRNA and DNA vaccines, tell people NOT to vaccinate their children with the Covid-19 vaccine for at least 5 years, until the research and testing has been done:"
Followed by a link to a TikTok video.
Facebook have added a 'Covid vaccines work' banner underneath the post.
From my (limited) knowledge, there's a fair bit wrong in it.
He didn't invent mRNA vaccines at all. Katarin Kariko did.
Whatever happened to that Government newspaper wrap around?
My Guardian had a wrap around: get yer boosters.
Solid propellant or cryogenic?
Could be UDMH and nitrogen tetroxide, of course. Though there is a Greg Egan SF novel which has a spacecraft lift off from a planet propelled by the (admittedly weird) local equivalent of coal.
"‘Presumably others are modelling the harms caused by restrictions, including economic harms,’ says Professor Graham Medley, chairman of the Sage modelling committee."
Spectator blog
Fecking genuine
It's a reasonable assumption though don't you think ?
Gov't has massive resources to hand, the impacts of lockdown ought to be calculated somewhere...
At Lingfield this afternoon enjoying a moderate afternoon's jump racing, I saw two drones in the distance presumably carrying real time pictures of the action for exchange players.
I believe there was a bill put forward to legislate against these drones which can be a hazard and a danger - one of the issues is where the landowner has given consent for the operation from their field and garden.
I've not followed the ins and outs but I believe the Government has effectively blocked the proposed legislation by not providing debating time.
Coincidentally, a similar proposal in Ireland looks likely to be passed by the Dáil.
Curiously, I was discussing this with my devil this afternoon. Aircraft have the right to overfly private property by statute but I am not aware of any such provision for drones. They can overfly public land, provided they are not constituting a hazard but not private land. If we are ever to get to the point where Amazon are going to replace white van man with a drone this is going to need to change. Your point suggests how difficult that legislation might be.
There remains a very good solution available for Northern Ireland that squares the circle @Richard_Nabavi writes about and keeps the ultras onside: Invoke Article 16.
NEW: Matt Hancock is in the cheese and wine photo from the Downing Street garden, Telegraph can reveal.
As mentioned earlier, all this talk of cheese and wine is making me think of Mike Leigh's Abigail's Party. The only possible candidate for Beverley is Priti Patel, in some sort of shockingly loud dress and offering cocktails and cheese sticks, and the taciturn man stewing angrily in the corner would have to be Lord Frost.
I'd pick Nadine Dorries as Abigail over Priti Patel.
NEW: Matt Hancock is in the cheese and wine photo from the Downing Street garden, Telegraph can reveal.
As mentioned earlier, all this talk of cheese and wine is making me think of Mike Leigh's Abigail's Party. The only possible candidate for Beverley is Priti Patel, in some sort of shockingly loud dress and offering cocktails and cheese sticks, and the taciturn man stewing angrily in the corner would have to be Lord Frost.
I'd pick Nadine Dorries as Abigail over Priti Patel.
At Lingfield this afternoon enjoying a moderate afternoon's jump racing, I saw two drones in the distance presumably carrying real time pictures of the action for exchange players.
I believe there was a bill put forward to legislate against these drones which can be a hazard and a danger - one of the issues is where the landowner has given consent for the operation from their field and garden.
I've not followed the ins and outs but I believe the Government has effectively blocked the proposed legislation by not providing debating time.
Coincidentally, a similar proposal in Ireland looks likely to be passed by the Dáil.
Curiously, I was discussing this with my devil this afternoon. Aircraft have the right to overfly private property by statute but I am not aware of any such provision for drones. They can overfly public land, provided they are not constituting a hazard but not private land. If we are ever to get to the point where Amazon are going to replace white van man with a drone this is going to need to change. Your point suggests how difficult that legislation might be.
"‘Presumably others are modelling the harms caused by restrictions, including economic harms,’ says Professor Graham Medley, chairman of the Sage modelling committee."
Spectator blog
Fecking genuine
It's a reasonable assumption though don't you think ?
Gov't has massive resources to hand, the impacts of lockdown ought to be calculated somewhere...
With Covid, it is important to remember one thing. It relies on people participating in the testing system, and self isolating to avoid transmitting the virus. This despite the fact that, for large numbers of people, self isolation is a major deprivation of liberty and financial inconvenience.
Eventually, people will stop submitting to the testing system. And that will be the end of Covid. It becomes something that is just passed on to the healthcare system to deal with.
Looking at some of the comments today, I don't think we are far off this point.
For what it is worth, I half expect a leadership contest between Sunak and Truss to reveal that both are relative newbies and not battle hardened in the dark arts of a Tory contest.
Perhaps Hunt will come through the middle.
genuine Q - has anyone ever 'come through the middle'?
The only one I can think of is Macron in France 2017 and that's a direct result of their electoral system.
For what it is worth, I half expect a leadership contest between Sunak and Truss to reveal that both are relative newbies and not battle hardened in the dark arts of a Tory contest.
Perhaps Hunt will come through the middle.
genuine Q - has anyone ever 'come through the middle'?
The only one I can think of is Macron in France 2017 and that's a direct result of their electoral system.
For what it is worth, I half expect a leadership contest between Sunak and Truss to reveal that both are relative newbies and not battle hardened in the dark arts of a Tory contest.
Perhaps Hunt will come through the middle.
genuine Q - has anyone ever 'come through the middle'?
The only one I can think of is Macron in France 2017 and that's a direct result of their electoral system.
With Covid, it is important to remember one thing. It relies on people participating in the testing system, and self isolating to avoid transmitting the virus. This despite the fact that, for large numbers of people, self isolation is a major deprivation of liberty and financial inconvenience.
Eventually, people will stop submitting to the testing system. And that will be the end of Covid. It becomes something that is just passed on to the healthcare system to deal with.
Looking at some of the comments today, I don't think we are far off this point.
The number of tests conducted suggest otherwise. It's gone through the roof in the past couple of weeks.
NEW: Matt Hancock is in the cheese and wine photo from the Downing Street garden, Telegraph can reveal.
As mentioned earlier, all this talk of cheese and wine is making me think of Mike Leigh's Abigail's Party. The only possible candidate for Beverley is Priti Patel, in some sort of shockingly loud dress and offering cocktails and cheese sticks, and the taciturn man stewing angrily in the corner would have to be Lord Frost.
Whatever happened to that Government newspaper wrap around?
My Guardian had a wrap around: get yer boosters.
Solid propellant or cryogenic?
Could be UDMH and nitrogen tetroxide, of course. Though there is a Greg Egan SF novel which has a spacecraft lift off from a planet propelled by the (admittedly weird) local equivalent of coal.
Real Men (TM) use FOOF. Combined with Chlorine pentafluoride. Because, why not?
Tom Harwood @tomhfh 100% not complying if there's a ban on indoor mixing next month.
Tom Harwood, the weirdest 20 something that ever lived
You think it's weird for triple jabbed, education wrecked, unshagged twenty-somethings to ignore the wine-guzzling Johnson and spend a bit of time with their mates?
Thanks, Richard, really good piece. She's a lay alright. Set up to fail - in the crazies eyes - on NI. And in any case she's rather vacuous. Parties tend to veer away from what they've just had so I expect BJ's replacement, when it happens, to be a fairly solid thinker.
For what it is worth, I half expect a leadership contest between Sunak and Truss to reveal that both are relative newbies and not battle hardened in the dark arts of a Tory contest.
Perhaps Hunt will come through the middle.
genuine Q - has anyone ever 'come through the middle'?
The only one I can think of is Macron in France 2017 and that's a direct result of their electoral system.
Shaun Lintern @ShaunLintern · 14m "It is predicted that the London Ambulance Service (LAS), Emergency Departments (EDs) and the General and Acute (G&A) bed base are likely to become overwhelmed due to rising Covid demand in the next 2-3 weeks" - NHS London warning today reported by HSJ Shaun Lintern @ShaunLintern · 3m As previously reported by @thesundaytimes NHS England internally has been warning of a peak by the first two weeks of January...there is little doubt about the wave...only its size. But are hospitals, ambulances and community services ready?
Friend in a hospital (yeah I know - she's a phlebotomist but still an anecdote) says that Covid patients no change - this was over the weekend - but plenty of staff off isolating.
10% of NHS beds full of people who could be discharged to care homes but won’t be because people are fighting over budgets and who pays (NHS vs LA)
With Covid, it is important to remember one thing. It relies on people participating in the testing system, and self isolating to avoid transmitting the virus. This despite the fact that, for large numbers of people, self isolation is a major deprivation of liberty and financial inconvenience.
Eventually, people will stop submitting to the testing system. And that will be the end of Covid. It becomes something that is just passed on to the healthcare system to deal with.
Looking at some of the comments today, I don't think we are far off this point.
And the irony is they will stop submitting whilst the health experts and politicians demand ever more.
Not enough to test when you're feeling symptoms defined as covid symptoms. Not enough to test when you are feeling any sort of illness at all, even if you're sure it's hayfever because its the middle of summer and the grass pollen is off the scale, it could be covid! Not enough to test twice per week. Not enough to test every day, or every time you leave the house - at some point someone will suggest we all test two or three times per day, I feel sure of it.
There remains a very good solution available for Northern Ireland that squares the circle @Richard_Nabavi writes about and keeps the ultras onside: Invoke Article 16.
My understanding is that the EU has been moving a lot more quickly on the trusted trader scheme than previously (presumably due to the implicit threat of Article 16).
You therefore have a difficult balance: if we still invoke Article 16, they might say "Well, we've been doing what we were supposed to do at some speed to satisfy the British, and they've invoked it anyway. Fuck 'em". Personally, I think leaving it on the table, but not invoking it is the best thing to do at this stage.
Good header. It may not be a binary between total retreat on Article 16 and unwinnable trade war with the EU when it gets called. Liz Truss might be able to exploit this.
The trick is to call Article 16 over something utterly trivial. The Northern Ireland widgets disclosure form for example. NIWD form must go! It's causing the Union to collapse. The EU doesn't care about NIWD so it's not going to collapse the TCA over it. There's a bit of haggling and widgets disclosure gets rolled into the import declaration. Agreement is signed. PM-in-waiting Truss presents her best profile amongst massive Union flags in the photo op.
She has done three things that matter to Brexiteers:
1. Triggered Article 16 2. Demonstrated EU threats are toothless. 3. Got the EU to cave
And because Brexit is entirely performative, that's all she needs to do. Then she wins the CP leadership race.
Negotiation is a people thing. If you get on you are more likely to agree a positive deal for both sides. Truss may be better than Frost in this regard.
Whatever happened to that Government newspaper wrap around?
My Guardian had a wrap around: get yer boosters.
Solid propellant or cryogenic?
Could be UDMH and nitrogen tetroxide, of course. Though there is a Greg Egan SF novel which has a spacecraft lift off from a planet propelled by the (admittedly weird) local equivalent of coal.
Real Men (TM) use FOOF. Combined with Chlorine pentafluoride. Because, why not?
Another solid poll for Pecresse but Le Pen is still close behind albeit clearly both she and Zemmour have lost ground as the right and centre-right moves back to LR. Macron still well ahead in Round 1 but a second round run off with Pecresse will not be what he wants.
Whatever happened to that Government newspaper wrap around?
My Guardian had a wrap around: get yer boosters.
Solid propellant or cryogenic?
Could be UDMH and nitrogen tetroxide, of course. Though there is a Greg Egan SF novel which has a spacecraft lift off from a planet propelled by the (admittedly weird) local equivalent of coal.
Real Men (TM) use FOOF. Combined with Chlorine pentafluoride. Because, why not?
I've rejoined the Tory Party to partake in this leadership contest.
Truss for me, us republican Tories need to stick together.
How long until you qualify to vote in the leadership election - as that could easily be early January at the present rate.
Three months. But I may get an immediate vote, I was a member for 23 years, and my membership only lapsed last year.
FWIW - I think Boris Johnson is secure until May at least, the locals might be the tipping point if it is a very bad night.
Still has to be a danger that there is a meltdown over COVID restrictions. They kicked the can today, but seems like there isn't much collective responsibility in the cabinet.
There remains a very good solution available for Northern Ireland that squares the circle @Richard_Nabavi writes about and keeps the ultras onside: Invoke Article 16.
My understanding is that the EU has been moving a lot more quickly on the trusted trader scheme than previously (presumably due to the implicit threat of Article 16).
You therefore have a difficult balance: if we still invoke Article 16, they might say "Well, we've been doing what we were supposed to do at some speed to satisfy the British, and they've invoked it anyway. Fuck 'em". Personally, I think leaving it on the table, but not invoking it is the best thing to do at this stage.
Well yes if the negotiations work with it there as a threat then you've made it redundant.
If they don't, then invoke it and how far they've come is the baseline that they need to come further from to get A16 resolved.
I've rejoined the Tory Party to partake in this leadership contest.
Truss for me, us republican Tories need to stick together.
How long until you qualify to vote in the leadership election - as that could easily be early January at the present rate.
Three months. But I may get an immediate vote, I was a member for 23 years, and my membership only lapsed last year.
FWIW - I think Boris Johnson is secure until May at least, the locals might be the tipping point if it is a very bad night.
Still has to be a danger that there is a meltdown over COVID restrictions. They kicked the can today, but seems like there isn't much collective responsibility in the cabinet.
Actually I think Boris Johnson has played a blinder today.
If Omicron is as bad as SAGE think it will be, he'll put the blame squarely on the cabinet refuseniks.
I've rejoined the Tory Party to partake in this leadership contest.
Truss for me, us republican Tories need to stick together.
How long until you qualify to vote in the leadership election - as that could easily be early January at the present rate.
Three months. But I may get an immediate vote, I was a member for 23 years, and my membership only lapsed last year.
FWIW - I think Boris Johnson is secure until May at least, the locals might be the tipping point if it is a very bad night.
Still has to be a danger that there is a meltdown over COVID restrictions. They kicked the can today, but seems like there isn't much collective responsibility in the cabinet.
There is collective responsibility but Boris couldn't do what he wanted to do and worse then had to front for the cameras and say nothing has changed.
I've rejoined the Tory Party to partake in this leadership contest.
Truss for me, us republican Tories need to stick together.
How long until you qualify to vote in the leadership election - as that could easily be early January at the present rate.
Three months. But I may get an immediate vote, I was a member for 23 years, and my membership only lapsed last year.
FWIW - I think Boris Johnson is secure until May at least, the locals might be the tipping point if it is a very bad night.
Still has to be a danger that there is a meltdown over COVID restrictions. They kicked the can today, but seems like there isn't much collective responsibility in the cabinet.
Actually I think Boris Johnson has played a blinder today.
If Omicron is as bad as SAGE think it will be, he'll put the blame squarely on the cabinet refuseniks.
Eh ?
He's the PM. If Omicron goes badly, he goes down with the ship.
Comments
Tom Harwood
@tomhfh
100% not complying if there's a ban on indoor mixing next month.
I mean, these people entered politics specifically to get away from their families.
At Lingfield this afternoon enjoying a moderate afternoon's jump racing, I saw two drones in the distance presumably carrying real time pictures of the action for exchange players.
I believe there was a bill put forward to legislate against these drones which can be a hazard and a danger - one of the issues is where the landowner has given consent for the operation from their field and garden.
I've not followed the ins and outs but I believe the Government has effectively blocked the proposed legislation by not providing debating time.
Coincidentally, a similar proposal in Ireland looks likely to be passed by the Dáil.
https://twitter.com/sajidjavid/status/1472986718865436683?s=20
Someone just texted me a photo of Andrew Marr interviewing Boris Johnson:
AM-'Out of all the lies you've told since you became PM Which is your favourite?"
BJ-"I don't tell lies"
AM-"That's my favourite too"
A few comments:
Normally when conducting this kind of hazard operability study, there is data available which gives the mean-time-to-failure of said widgets. From this, risk can be estimated (based on potential loss of life/business cost against likelihood of occurrence).
Once the risk is known, then mitigation can be put in place to reduce the level of risk to something that is more acceptable.
In our COVID example case, more information is now becoming available to make the risk assessment more accurate (why is this not being done?). Also, there are other forms of mitigation that could be offset against the risk other than lockdown - what happened to the nightingale hospitals, for example?
Other mitigation (done for the best of intentions) may actually make things worse (unintended consequences etc). This is not an easy thing to assess, and if you are not given the full picture (and not qualified) then it is no wonder bad decisions are made.
In fact I judge that quite likely.
You have to register all drones above 250g and there are perfectly sensible rules for where you can fly and where you can't.
I know this because I have a licence...
If they have permission to overfly the racecourse then it is OK as long as it isn't within 50m of anyone not under their control.
I've seen one at Doncaster races too, and assumed it was part of the TV setup. It was certainly professional kit, not home built stuff bodged together like mine. It stayed in the inner part of the circuit over the golf course, which was totally within the rules.
Well, they can try. Who will obey? Their laughable defences of the garden party photo just seals the deal - most people will tell them to go super-injunction themselves.
@BallouxFrancois
·
1h
Thank you for chairing the meeting,
@sajidjavid I enjoyed the calm and respectful tone throughout the exchanges, and found the discussion productive and insightful.
==
A sane voice in the room.
Of course it's also fair to say that the only genuinely good poll on the PM metric for Starmer was the Ipsos Mori one.
Boris vaccinates. Starmer vacillates. Truss is vacuous. Frost vacates. Sunak goes on vacation.
However, I do think covid/omicron is an extremely complex issue but I am alarmed at how the media use the same sources and do not give airtime to other opinions and voices
I do not see any need to take any more action as I believe the public are making their own decisions which is far better than any state dictat
If the cabinet prove correct against all the siren voices of the scientists, media, and the labour party, then they should see a poll recovery
However, it does follow that if they are wrong then GE 24 will be a very big challenge
@cjsnowdon
The UK government has a choice between believing in vaccines and believing in quack modelling. No country with such a high % of antibodies from vaccines and prior infection should be considering any restrictions on freedom.
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1472997747271872517?s=20
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1472992707501080581?s=20
Janice Turner
@VictoriaPeckham
·
5h
So we may be allowed Christmas, but forbidden New Year? And they honestly think triple-vaxxed people, pre-tested with lateral flows, will just toast 2022 alone at home? When the government partied when NO ONE was vaccinated and daily deaths were over 1,000.
The issue I have with the kind of modelling here is that Omicron isn't an unknown unknown. We know things about it, we know fairly well what vaccine efficacy is, we know with a reasonable degree of certainty that it manifests as an upper respiratory tract virus than a lower respiratory tract one like Delta.
It's simply not right to ask the decision makers to form an opinion on the right way forwards if the best available data isn't being used and instead guesswork that we know to be worse is being used. I understand the need for expediency and that in a situation where exponential growth is a factor acting late can mean it's too late to act. I do understand that they are under pressure. However, there's simply no need to put their finger on the scales, whoever asked them to do that is trying to force a decision on lockdown and it's spectacularly back fired on them because now the politicians have lost all confidence in the modelling. The 7k central forecast from the summer had already hurt their credibility now it's completely destroyed because they have been found to be fiddling the numbers for some as yet unknown DoH bod who wants to guide the process in a specific direction.
On the whole idea of the "never scenario" it's fanciful that anything that comes with COVID is now in that category.
I also agree that we probably won't need a lockdown. My issue is that the data for that scenario isn't being presented to the politicians when it absolutely should be. It's not an unlikely scenario that Omicron is a paper tiger, yet our politicians are given that option because the unnamed party in the DoH has deemed it irrelevant to the decision making process and asked the modellers not to give their findings for that scenario. It would be a piece of piss to do it as well.
Spectator blog
Fecking genuine
We are done.
Gov't has massive resources to hand, the impacts of lockdown ought to be calculated somewhere...
You'd imagine that a contender from another party might make hay.. but no it turns out it's Ed Davey.
When we are laughing at him and not with him.
seems relevant.
(Apologies in advance)
I've rejoined the Tory Party to partake in this leadership contest.
Truss for me, us republican Tories need to stick together.
Eventually, people will stop submitting to the testing system. And that will be the end of Covid. It becomes something that is just passed on to the healthcare system to deal with.
Looking at some of the comments today, I don't think we are far off this point.
The only one I can think of is Macron in France 2017 and that's a direct result of their electoral system.
IDS also in 2001.
FWIW - I think Boris Johnson is secure until May at least, the locals might be the tipping point if it is a very bad night.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1534760/Liz-Truss-BBC-Republican-Monarchy-Queen-Nick-Robinson-VN
So you will have to stick to being a republican LD (albeit even Davey wants to keep the monarchy)
My support bubble could refloat Titanic.
Some might say Cameron and May too.
They are wearing suits...
1997 and 2001 Hague and IDS won because they weren't Ken Clarke and in the case of IDS the fact he wasn't Michael Portillo either.
1990 - Major won in part because he wasn't Heseltine.
Not enough to test when you're feeling symptoms defined as covid symptoms. Not enough to test when you are feeling any sort of illness at all, even if you're sure it's hayfever because its the middle of summer and the grass pollen is off the scale, it could be covid! Not enough to test twice per week. Not enough to test every day, or every time you leave the house - at some point someone will suggest we all test two or three times per day, I feel sure of it.
You therefore have a difficult balance: if we still invoke Article 16, they might say "Well, we've been doing what we were supposed to do at some speed to satisfy the British, and they've invoked it anyway. Fuck 'em". Personally, I think leaving it on the table, but not invoking it is the best thing to do at this stage.
Meanwhile, across la Manche - changes from the last Ifop poll on 23/11-25/11
Macron (LREM): 25.5% (+0.5)
Pécresse (LR): 18% (+8)
Le Pen (RN): 16% (-3.5)
Zemmour (REC): 12% (-3)
Mélenchon (LFI): 9.5% (+2)
Another solid poll for Pecresse but Le Pen is still close behind albeit clearly both she and Zemmour have lost ground as the right and centre-right moves back to LR. Macron still well ahead in Round 1 but a second round run off with Pecresse will not be what he wants.
I think you've left 11 times and re-joined 9 times but I can't be certain.
https://twitter.com/darrenmccaffrey/status/1473029333182783492
I could see lots of tactical voting to stop her.
One of the rumours I've heard in recent days is that the ERG and CRG are thinking of having primaries for any upcoming leadership contest.
That might help on the tactical front voting.
If they don't, then invoke it and how far they've come is the baseline that they need to come further from to get A16 resolved.
If Omicron is as bad as SAGE think it will be, he'll put the blame squarely on the cabinet refuseniks.
He's the PM. If Omicron goes badly, he goes down with the ship.