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How would a “progressive alliance” work? – politicalbetting.com

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  • Scott_xP said:

    Hearing that Boris Johnson is considering going back to step 2 restrictions from Dec 27 - so POST Christmas - for a month to help curb infections.

    Big caveat is that Govt scientists want him to act now - while some in Cabinet worried about further restrictions even later.
    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1472933272598499331/photo/1

    Hope I’m getting some nice jumpers for Christmas to layer up for outdoor drinks in January…. Brr
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,989
    edited December 2021
    Sandpit said:

    Re lack of science in cabinet. My understanding is there a similar dearth across the civil service and it is something Patrick Valence in particular has been raising for ages. In a modern economy having sufficient expertise in science is crucial.

    I guess the problem is say a STEM PhD from a top tier university is going to have a range of well paid opportunities, i doubt the civil service ranks very highly on that.

    It’s something that Cummings identified very early on in government. There’s a total lack of timely and accurate data reaching the decision-makers.

    Yes, they probably need to dig deep into their pockets for a bunch of STEM PhDs, who have the opportunity to go into the City or tech company where £200k salaries are the norm.
    I was talking to somebody a few weeks ago in the biz and they said while it is hugely good PR for the UK tech sector that Google have put so much money into DeepMind, they have hoovered up so much of the top ML talent over the past few years (I think they hired something like 500-600 PhDs in 2-3 years), its actually really bad for the wider country. And also because they have had basically this blank cheque they have been dicking around on quite a few things that are really aren't of any use.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368

    The Sun
    @TheSun
    ·
    15m
    Boris Johnson not expected to make Christmas announcement today https://thesun.co.uk/news/politics/17092767/boris-johnson-no-announcement-today/?utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=sunmaintwitter&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1640008982-4

    He will delay it to Wednesday to really screw up pubs and restaurants instead.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Sandpit said:

    Re lack of science in cabinet. My understanding is there a similar dearth across the civil service and it is something Patrick Valence in particular has been raising for ages. In a modern economy having sufficient expertise in science is crucial.

    I guess the problem is say a STEM PhD from a top tier university is going to have a range of well paid opportunities, i doubt the civil service ranks very highly on that.

    It’s something that Cummings identified very early on in government. There’s a total lack of timely and accurate data reaching the decision-makers.

    Yes, they probably need to dig deep into their pockets for a bunch of STEM PhDs, who have the opportunity to go into the City or tech company where £200k salaries are the norm.
    Why the heck do they need PhDs? Just compete with the audit/consulting/non-banking financial services firms for ordinary maths/econ/natsci bachelors, rather than the current situation of everyone having PPE from Oxford/Durham (uninformed stereotype alert). Starting salaries 25k-40k, rising to 50k-100k within ~5 years. Or is even that pricing themselves out the game?
  • @IpsosMORI asked Britons for their predictions for 2022

    - 62% think Boris Johnson will not be PM by end of 2022
    - 52% predict a General Election
    - 38% expect Keir Starmer to be ousted (opinion split)..

    Looking at party splits, even a majority (58%) of 2019 Conservative voters think Boris Johnson will be out of office next year. Labour voters divided on Starmer.


    https://twitter.com/CameronGarrett_/status/1472931710794973184?s=20
  • eek said:


    The Sun
    @TheSun
    ·
    15m
    Boris Johnson not expected to make Christmas announcement today https://thesun.co.uk/news/politics/17092767/boris-johnson-no-announcement-today/?utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=sunmaintwitter&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1640008982-4

    He will delay it to Wednesday to really screw up pubs and restaurants instead.

    Utterly laughable. What a mess.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,572

    Absolutely fuck right off doing that at all, even post Christmas.

    I'll do my best Ian Paisley impression: No! No! No!
    Wow. Colour me surprised. ;)

    Tell me, are you in the coffin or undertaker business?
  • As predicted, when it comes to COVID when Boris is presented with a choice, he manages to choose the worst possible option.
  • eek said:


    The Sun
    @TheSun
    ·
    15m
    Boris Johnson not expected to make Christmas announcement today https://thesun.co.uk/news/politics/17092767/boris-johnson-no-announcement-today/?utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=sunmaintwitter&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1640008982-4

    He will delay it to Wednesday to really screw up pubs and restaurants instead.

    As well as a holiday booked in the first week of January, we have a meal booked with a local restaurant for New Years Eve that really needs the trade. We've pre-ordered our meal choices (back in November!) so that they can get their stock ordered.

    New Years Eve has to be surely the busiest day of the year for the sector and its surely not something that can be changed at just a couple of days notice.
  • Told cabinet ministers are pushing PM for no measures at Christmas - maybe just some guidance/advice on being safe - then restrictions on indoor mixing implemented next week. Cabinet meeting now… we’ll see

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1472931790197305354?s=20

    I was first
    If you want people to read your twitter posts i suggest you copy the text of them and not simply post a link.
    I didn't know people were incapable of clicking a link.

    Just steal posts, I will do that going forwards
    If you post a link to the post it's not "stealing" - its giving readers the opportunity to explore further if they find the tweet interesting. Posting a link only tells them nothing apart from the author and frequently that's not even clear.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    glw said:

    The headline:

    Hobnobs maker warns biscuit prices set to soar
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59728325

    Biscuit maker McVitie's says the prices of many of its best-selling brands are set to soar.

    The firm, which is owned by Pladis Global, said brands such as Jaffa Cakes, Penguins and Hobnobs could go up in price by as much as 5%.

    Ah, so “soaring” down in real terms then.
  • MaffewMaffew Posts: 235

    eek said:


    The Sun
    @TheSun
    ·
    15m
    Boris Johnson not expected to make Christmas announcement today https://thesun.co.uk/news/politics/17092767/boris-johnson-no-announcement-today/?utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=sunmaintwitter&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1640008982-4

    He will delay it to Wednesday to really screw up pubs and restaurants instead.

    Utterly laughable. What a mess.
    How annoying, the hotel I have booked for Christmas near my parents is only cancellable up to midnight tomorrow.
  • This is utterly pathetic from BoJo.

    If we need restrictions then why delay?

    If we need to delay, why do we need restrictions?

    He's utterly useless
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368
    Endillion said:

    Sandpit said:

    Re lack of science in cabinet. My understanding is there a similar dearth across the civil service and it is something Patrick Valence in particular has been raising for ages. In a modern economy having sufficient expertise in science is crucial.

    I guess the problem is say a STEM PhD from a top tier university is going to have a range of well paid opportunities, i doubt the civil service ranks very highly on that.

    It’s something that Cummings identified very early on in government. There’s a total lack of timely and accurate data reaching the decision-makers.

    Yes, they probably need to dig deep into their pockets for a bunch of STEM PhDs, who have the opportunity to go into the City or tech company where £200k salaries are the norm.
    Why the heck do they need PhDs? Just compete with the audit/consulting/non-banking financial services firms for ordinary maths/econ/natsci bachelors, rather than the current situation of everyone having PPE from Oxford/Durham (uninformed stereotype alert). Starting salaries 25k-40k, rising to 50k-100k within ~5 years. Or is even that pricing themselves out the game?
    The lack of Cambridge and promotion of Durham is going to put you in @TSE 's bad books.

    But in reality if you want great people you need to pay them and the civil service isn't structured in a way that makes that possible - general IT has similar issues...
  • Told cabinet ministers are pushing PM for no measures at Christmas - maybe just some guidance/advice on being safe - then restrictions on indoor mixing implemented next week. Cabinet meeting now… we’ll see

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1472931790197305354?s=20

    I was first
    If you want people to read your twitter posts i suggest you copy the text of them and not simply post a link.
    I didn't know people were incapable of clicking a link.

    Just steal posts, I will do that going forwards
    If you post a link to the post it's not "stealing" - its giving readers the opportunity to explore further if they find the tweet interesting. Posting a link only tells them nothing apart from the author and frequently that's not even clear.
    They can click the link and it's clear but I will steal posts going forwards. Thanks!


  • If we need restrictions then why delay?

    Maybe the cheese and wine is booked in for tonight?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,989
    edited December 2021
    eek said:

    Endillion said:

    Sandpit said:

    Re lack of science in cabinet. My understanding is there a similar dearth across the civil service and it is something Patrick Valence in particular has been raising for ages. In a modern economy having sufficient expertise in science is crucial.

    I guess the problem is say a STEM PhD from a top tier university is going to have a range of well paid opportunities, i doubt the civil service ranks very highly on that.

    It’s something that Cummings identified very early on in government. There’s a total lack of timely and accurate data reaching the decision-makers.

    Yes, they probably need to dig deep into their pockets for a bunch of STEM PhDs, who have the opportunity to go into the City or tech company where £200k salaries are the norm.
    Why the heck do they need PhDs? Just compete with the audit/consulting/non-banking financial services firms for ordinary maths/econ/natsci bachelors, rather than the current situation of everyone having PPE from Oxford/Durham (uninformed stereotype alert). Starting salaries 25k-40k, rising to 50k-100k within ~5 years. Or is even that pricing themselves out the game?
    The lack of Cambridge and promotion of Durham is going to put you in @TSE 's bad books.

    But in reality if you want great people you need to pay them and the civil service isn't structured in a way that makes that possible - general IT has similar issues...
    "Starting salaries for the three agencies - GCHQ, MI5 and MI6 - are in the region of £25,000 to £35,000, plus benefits. There are opportunities to progress to higher grades, with salaries reaching around £40,000 after five to ten years' service."

    This isn't exactly going to attract the best and the brightest.....
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590

    This is utterly pathetic from BoJo.

    If we need restrictions then why delay?

    If we need to delay, why do we need restrictions?

    He's utterly useless

    The only saving grace is that every day's delay makes it clearer which proposition is true. Better than just another rush to any action available.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    eek said:

    Endillion said:

    Sandpit said:

    Re lack of science in cabinet. My understanding is there a similar dearth across the civil service and it is something Patrick Valence in particular has been raising for ages. In a modern economy having sufficient expertise in science is crucial.

    I guess the problem is say a STEM PhD from a top tier university is going to have a range of well paid opportunities, i doubt the civil service ranks very highly on that.

    It’s something that Cummings identified very early on in government. There’s a total lack of timely and accurate data reaching the decision-makers.

    Yes, they probably need to dig deep into their pockets for a bunch of STEM PhDs, who have the opportunity to go into the City or tech company where £200k salaries are the norm.
    Why the heck do they need PhDs? Just compete with the audit/consulting/non-banking financial services firms for ordinary maths/econ/natsci bachelors, rather than the current situation of everyone having PPE from Oxford/Durham (uninformed stereotype alert). Starting salaries 25k-40k, rising to 50k-100k within ~5 years. Or is even that pricing themselves out the game?
    The lack of Cambridge and promotion of Durham is going to put you in @TSE 's bad books.

    But in reality if you want great people you need to pay them and the civil service isn't structured in a way that makes that possible - general IT has similar issues...
    Cambridge doesn't offer PPE, and I'm not suggesting they get the best people... just ones who don't keel over in horror if they're asked to interpret a table of numbers.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368

    eek said:


    The Sun
    @TheSun
    ·
    15m
    Boris Johnson not expected to make Christmas announcement today https://thesun.co.uk/news/politics/17092767/boris-johnson-no-announcement-today/?utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=sunmaintwitter&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1640008982-4

    He will delay it to Wednesday to really screw up pubs and restaurants instead.

    As well as a holiday booked in the first week of January, we have a meal booked with a local restaurant for New Years Eve that really needs the trade. We've pre-ordered our meal choices (back in November!) so that they can get their stock ordered.

    New Years Eve has to be surely the busiest day of the year for the sector and its surely not something that can be changed at just a couple of days notice.
    See my comment earlier about the fact restaurants and pubs doing on Dec 27/28th needs to be decide now as there won't be delivers early next week.

    And as I said before we are supposed to be in Glasgow on the 27th-29th for ice hockey, to see uni friends and spend some family time doing not very much.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727
    edited December 2021
    Sandpit said:

    glw said:

    The headline:

    Hobnobs maker warns biscuit prices set to soar
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59728325

    Biscuit maker McVitie's says the prices of many of its best-selling brands are set to soar.

    The firm, which is owned by Pladis Global, said brands such as Jaffa Cakes, Penguins and Hobnobs could go up in price by as much as 5%.

    Ah, so “soaring” down in real terms then.
    Gliding?

    Edit: At least they're not dunking
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,917
    edited December 2021
    What Boris is considering from Dec 27th, not a full lockdown but close to it. However Christmas itself would be saved.

    Potential Step 2 restrictions from Dec 27

    Work from home if you can
    No socialising indoors
    Hairdressers Beauty Salons OPEN
    Higher education to learn remotely
    Indoor entertainment CLOSED
    NO holidays
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1472935457021435904?s=20
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582

    Told cabinet ministers are pushing PM for no measures at Christmas - maybe just some guidance/advice on being safe - then restrictions on indoor mixing implemented next week. Cabinet meeting now… we’ll see

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1472931790197305354?s=20

    Trying to bring in legal restrictions over Christmas, will undoubtedly lead to Cabinet-level resignations, and a lot of peeved-off MPs at Parliament being recalled. I’m not sure the PM wants to have to deal with that right now.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,664
    Scott_xP said:

    Hearing that Boris Johnson is considering going back to step 2 restrictions from Dec 27 - so POST Christmas - for a month to help curb infections.

    Big caveat is that Govt scientists want him to act now - while some in Cabinet worried about further restrictions even later.
    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1472933272598499331/photo/1

    Be interesting to know who is doing all the leaking.

    Not ideal having all sorts of people with agendas other than dealing with Covid in the best manner.

    You do wonder whether the person leaking the party stuff actually cares about good government or whether it is just revenge to be taken at the most inopportune moment, regardless of its effect on the country at large.

    Maybe they are just anti lockdowns (fair enough, but is weakening the PM the best way to stop a lockdown?)

  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,647

    eek said:

    Endillion said:

    Sandpit said:

    Re lack of science in cabinet. My understanding is there a similar dearth across the civil service and it is something Patrick Valence in particular has been raising for ages. In a modern economy having sufficient expertise in science is crucial.

    I guess the problem is say a STEM PhD from a top tier university is going to have a range of well paid opportunities, i doubt the civil service ranks very highly on that.

    It’s something that Cummings identified very early on in government. There’s a total lack of timely and accurate data reaching the decision-makers.

    Yes, they probably need to dig deep into their pockets for a bunch of STEM PhDs, who have the opportunity to go into the City or tech company where £200k salaries are the norm.
    Why the heck do they need PhDs? Just compete with the audit/consulting/non-banking financial services firms for ordinary maths/econ/natsci bachelors, rather than the current situation of everyone having PPE from Oxford/Durham (uninformed stereotype alert). Starting salaries 25k-40k, rising to 50k-100k within ~5 years. Or is even that pricing themselves out the game?
    The lack of Cambridge and promotion of Durham is going to put you in @TSE 's bad books.

    But in reality if you want great people you need to pay them and the civil service isn't structured in a way that makes that possible - general IT has similar issues...
    "Starting salaries for the three agencies - GCHQ, MI5 and MI6 - are in the region of £25,000 to £35,000, plus benefits. There are opportunities to progress to higher grades, with salaries reaching around £40,000 after five to ten years' service."

    This isn't exactly going to attract the best and the brightest.....
    And prior experience in the private sector counts for very little, apparently. I have a very pissed off friend who was asked to wait his turn for promotion.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,986
    HYUFD said:

    What Boris is considering from Dec 27th, not a full lockdown but close to it. However Christmas itself would be saved.

    Potential Step 2 restrictions from Dec 27

    Work from home if you can
    No socialising indoors
    Hairdressers Beauty Salons OPEN
    Higher education to learn remotely
    Indoor entertainment CLOSED
    NO holidays
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1472935457021435904?s=20

    Pointless
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368

    eek said:

    Endillion said:

    Sandpit said:

    Re lack of science in cabinet. My understanding is there a similar dearth across the civil service and it is something Patrick Valence in particular has been raising for ages. In a modern economy having sufficient expertise in science is crucial.

    I guess the problem is say a STEM PhD from a top tier university is going to have a range of well paid opportunities, i doubt the civil service ranks very highly on that.

    It’s something that Cummings identified very early on in government. There’s a total lack of timely and accurate data reaching the decision-makers.

    Yes, they probably need to dig deep into their pockets for a bunch of STEM PhDs, who have the opportunity to go into the City or tech company where £200k salaries are the norm.
    Why the heck do they need PhDs? Just compete with the audit/consulting/non-banking financial services firms for ordinary maths/econ/natsci bachelors, rather than the current situation of everyone having PPE from Oxford/Durham (uninformed stereotype alert). Starting salaries 25k-40k, rising to 50k-100k within ~5 years. Or is even that pricing themselves out the game?
    The lack of Cambridge and promotion of Durham is going to put you in @TSE 's bad books.

    But in reality if you want great people you need to pay them and the civil service isn't structured in a way that makes that possible - general IT has similar issues...
    "Starting salaries for the three agencies - GCHQ, MI5 and MI6 - are in the region of £25,000 to £35,000, plus benefits. There are opportunities to progress to higher grades, with salaries reaching around £40,000 after five to ten years' service."

    This isn't exactly going to attract the best and the brightest.....
    Civil service Degree Apprenticeships start at £25k and rise fairly rapidly early on to ensure the workers hit the appropriate officer paygrade.

    How I know that - out of the 100 or so that exist every year Eek twin A has one and our next door neighbour's son has a DWP one.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    Endillion said:

    Sandpit said:

    Re lack of science in cabinet. My understanding is there a similar dearth across the civil service and it is something Patrick Valence in particular has been raising for ages. In a modern economy having sufficient expertise in science is crucial.

    I guess the problem is say a STEM PhD from a top tier university is going to have a range of well paid opportunities, i doubt the civil service ranks very highly on that.

    It’s something that Cummings identified very early on in government. There’s a total lack of timely and accurate data reaching the decision-makers.

    Yes, they probably need to dig deep into their pockets for a bunch of STEM PhDs, who have the opportunity to go into the City or tech company where £200k salaries are the norm.
    Why the heck do they need PhDs? Just compete with the audit/consulting/non-banking financial services firms for ordinary maths/econ/natsci bachelors, rather than the current situation of everyone having PPE from Oxford/Durham (uninformed stereotype alert). Starting salaries 25k-40k, rising to 50k-100k within ~5 years. Or is even that pricing themselves out the game?
    That would be slightly below the top consulting and law firms, and way below investment banking. Fine if you are happy to get Deloitte types but you won't be competing with BCG or JP Morgan.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,917
    edited December 2021

    eek said:

    Endillion said:

    Sandpit said:

    Re lack of science in cabinet. My understanding is there a similar dearth across the civil service and it is something Patrick Valence in particular has been raising for ages. In a modern economy having sufficient expertise in science is crucial.

    I guess the problem is say a STEM PhD from a top tier university is going to have a range of well paid opportunities, i doubt the civil service ranks very highly on that.

    It’s something that Cummings identified very early on in government. There’s a total lack of timely and accurate data reaching the decision-makers.

    Yes, they probably need to dig deep into their pockets for a bunch of STEM PhDs, who have the opportunity to go into the City or tech company where £200k salaries are the norm.
    Why the heck do they need PhDs? Just compete with the audit/consulting/non-banking financial services firms for ordinary maths/econ/natsci bachelors, rather than the current situation of everyone having PPE from Oxford/Durham (uninformed stereotype alert). Starting salaries 25k-40k, rising to 50k-100k within ~5 years. Or is even that pricing themselves out the game?
    The lack of Cambridge and promotion of Durham is going to put you in @TSE 's bad books.

    But in reality if you want great people you need to pay them and the civil service isn't structured in a way that makes that possible - general IT has similar issues...
    "Starting salaries for the three agencies - GCHQ, MI5 and MI6 - are in the region of £25,000 to £35,000, plus benefits. There are opportunities to progress to higher grades, with salaries reaching around £40,000 after five to ten years' service."

    This isn't exactly going to attract the best and the brightest.....
    If you want higher salaries for civil servants and government agents who pays for them? Taxpayers.

    However even if salaries at the top level are higher in the private sector, salaries on average are higher in the public sector now
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    What a shit-show.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582

    Sandpit said:

    Former Corbyn Aide Laura Murray has lost her libel battle against Countdown star Rachel Riley, resulting in a £10,000 payout.

    It shouldn’t be too difficult for Laura to stump up the money, given her family previously sold a Picasso portrait for £50 million in 2013 – they must be able to find £10,000 down the back of the sofa…

    https://order-order.com/2021/12/20/rachel-riley-wins-10000-pay-out-from-former-corbyn-aide-laura-murray/

    What is it with these Corbynistas being filthy rich....Also its of course its all a very small world, Laura is Andrew Murray's daughter, who was married to Susan Michie.

    Finding the £10k is going to be the least of her worries. Wait until she sees the bill for legal costs.
    We will probably find daddy has a friend who did it for free.
    Miss Riley definitely didn’t have a friend doing it Pro Bono, at least not given she won.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    https://fabians.org.uk/moving-the-marginals/

    Very interesting.

    The Fabian Society commissioned a GB-wide poll from YouGov with a specially-commissioned sub-group of the 125 seats in England and Wales where Labour came closest to winning in 2019. The survey was conducted on 8 to 13 December before the North Shropshire byelection and 668 people living in the Labour target seats took part.
    We found that Labour leads the Conservatives by nine percentage points in the 125 seats (Labour 43, Conservative 34). By contrast, at the 2019 election the Conservatives led in these seats by 12 points (Labour 37, Conservative 49).

    The Tories are in big big trouble

    6/1 Lab Maj looks value on those figures.

    What does ex-MP Nick “Historical comparisons make it implausible that Labour will win an absolute majority at the next election” Palmer say?
    If the election was tomorrow, sure. But I think there's an element of swingback to allow for, now that we are seeing some proper midterm swings. Still, 6/1 does look worth a nibble.

    Apologies for the odd paragraphing in the header, which splits the narrative at random places rather than the two numbered blocks that I submitted, so it's a bit hard to read.

    Ok, and to ydoethur FPT if he's around - sure, by all means use my text in a class. I have a much more detailed guide to how politics works and how to influence policy if anyone is interested (let me know at nickmp1 (at) aol.com).
    I have had a bit of lab Maj at 11/2 with boost at Ladbrokes.

    I don't think the enormity of NS has sunk in because it came at the end of such a lot of borishambles and I think it has been misunderstood. In the eyes of the shire Tories a coin Maj of 80 had one job, to repeal the hunting act. People just don't understand the extent to which hunting is the glue which holds a large section of country society together. These people aren't going to vote labour, they might just vote LD, they will probably over time revert to the Tories but next GE they are going to sit on their hands in bloody droves as a one off punishment. This has catastrophic implications for the Tories.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    The PM spreading his political fairy dust I see. Introducing restrictions too late to make an epidemiological difference and too strong not to piss off his own party. He must be toast now? Who is supporting him in post?
  • HYUFD said:

    What Boris is considering from Dec 27th, not a full lockdown but close to it. However Christmas itself would be saved.

    Potential Step 2 restrictions from Dec 27

    Work from home if you can
    No socialising indoors
    Hairdressers Beauty Salons OPEN
    Higher education to learn remotely
    Indoor entertainment CLOSED
    NO holidays
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1472935457021435904?s=20

    There is more chance of a snowstorm in hades than people following the second point down. The ban on indoor mixing is to many the true “lockdown.”
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,940

    eek said:

    Endillion said:

    Sandpit said:

    Re lack of science in cabinet. My understanding is there a similar dearth across the civil service and it is something Patrick Valence in particular has been raising for ages. In a modern economy having sufficient expertise in science is crucial.

    I guess the problem is say a STEM PhD from a top tier university is going to have a range of well paid opportunities, i doubt the civil service ranks very highly on that.

    It’s something that Cummings identified very early on in government. There’s a total lack of timely and accurate data reaching the decision-makers.

    Yes, they probably need to dig deep into their pockets for a bunch of STEM PhDs, who have the opportunity to go into the City or tech company where £200k salaries are the norm.
    Why the heck do they need PhDs? Just compete with the audit/consulting/non-banking financial services firms for ordinary maths/econ/natsci bachelors, rather than the current situation of everyone having PPE from Oxford/Durham (uninformed stereotype alert). Starting salaries 25k-40k, rising to 50k-100k within ~5 years. Or is even that pricing themselves out the game?
    The lack of Cambridge and promotion of Durham is going to put you in @TSE 's bad books.

    But in reality if you want great people you need to pay them and the civil service isn't structured in a way that makes that possible - general IT has similar issues...
    "Starting salaries for the three agencies - GCHQ, MI5 and MI6 - are in the region of £25,000 to £35,000, plus benefits. There are opportunities to progress to higher grades, with salaries reaching around £40,000 after five to ten years' service."

    This isn't exactly going to attract the best and the brightest.....
    How on earth does 007 afford his Savile Row suits and Omega watches then? He must have a heck of an expense account...
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Endillion said:

    Sandpit said:

    Re lack of science in cabinet. My understanding is there a similar dearth across the civil service and it is something Patrick Valence in particular has been raising for ages. In a modern economy having sufficient expertise in science is crucial.

    I guess the problem is say a STEM PhD from a top tier university is going to have a range of well paid opportunities, i doubt the civil service ranks very highly on that.

    It’s something that Cummings identified very early on in government. There’s a total lack of timely and accurate data reaching the decision-makers.

    Yes, they probably need to dig deep into their pockets for a bunch of STEM PhDs, who have the opportunity to go into the City or tech company where £200k salaries are the norm.
    Why the heck do they need PhDs? Just compete with the audit/consulting/non-banking financial services firms for ordinary maths/econ/natsci bachelors, rather than the current situation of everyone having PPE from Oxford/Durham (uninformed stereotype alert). Starting salaries 25k-40k, rising to 50k-100k within ~5 years. Or is even that pricing themselves out the game?
    The lack of Cambridge and promotion of Durham is going to put you in @TSE 's bad books.

    But in reality if you want great people you need to pay them and the civil service isn't structured in a way that makes that possible - general IT has similar issues...
    "Starting salaries for the three agencies - GCHQ, MI5 and MI6 - are in the region of £25,000 to £35,000, plus benefits. There are opportunities to progress to higher grades, with salaries reaching around £40,000 after five to ten years' service."

    This isn't exactly going to attract the best and the brightest.....
    If you want higher salaries for civil servants and government agents who pays for them? Taxpayers.

    However even if salaries at the top level are higher in the private sector, salaries on average are higher in the public sector now
    I would need some evidence to back that up

    But here we are talking about technical jobs and how quality decision makers. You need to pay them decent money as otherwise the private sector will pay them more.

    It's little different from BBC presenters looking at what ITV pay and asking for something vaguely similar rather than an insult.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,572
    If there is going to be a vote on restrictions, perhaps the government should give parliament options:

    *) No restrictions at all.
    *) Restrictions after Christmas
    *) Restrictions before Christmas.

    where what 'restrictions' means is well-defined (e.g. as mentioned below, level 2 from last year). If the first fails, you go onto a vote between 2 and 3.

    And allow a free vote, although recommend the second.
  • MaffewMaffew Posts: 235
    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    What Boris is considering from Dec 27th, not a full lockdown but close to it. However Christmas itself would be saved.

    Potential Step 2 restrictions from Dec 27

    Work from home if you can
    No socialising indoors
    Hairdressers Beauty Salons OPEN
    Higher education to learn remotely
    Indoor entertainment CLOSED
    NO holidays
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1472935457021435904?s=20

    Pointless
    Well that would ruin my holiday. While I, of course, wouldn't advocate breaking the law, I think it would be fair to say many people would not feel any moral obligation to restrict their socialising at this point and short of full on parties I can't see any realistic enforcement.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Endillion said:

    Sandpit said:

    Re lack of science in cabinet. My understanding is there a similar dearth across the civil service and it is something Patrick Valence in particular has been raising for ages. In a modern economy having sufficient expertise in science is crucial.

    I guess the problem is say a STEM PhD from a top tier university is going to have a range of well paid opportunities, i doubt the civil service ranks very highly on that.

    It’s something that Cummings identified very early on in government. There’s a total lack of timely and accurate data reaching the decision-makers.

    Yes, they probably need to dig deep into their pockets for a bunch of STEM PhDs, who have the opportunity to go into the City or tech company where £200k salaries are the norm.
    Why the heck do they need PhDs? Just compete with the audit/consulting/non-banking financial services firms for ordinary maths/econ/natsci bachelors, rather than the current situation of everyone having PPE from Oxford/Durham (uninformed stereotype alert). Starting salaries 25k-40k, rising to 50k-100k within ~5 years. Or is even that pricing themselves out the game?
    The lack of Cambridge and promotion of Durham is going to put you in @TSE 's bad books.

    But in reality if you want great people you need to pay them and the civil service isn't structured in a way that makes that possible - general IT has similar issues...
    "Starting salaries for the three agencies - GCHQ, MI5 and MI6 - are in the region of £25,000 to £35,000, plus benefits. There are opportunities to progress to higher grades, with salaries reaching around £40,000 after five to ten years' service."

    This isn't exactly going to attract the best and the brightest.....
    If you want higher salaries for civil servants and government agents who pays for them? Taxpayers.

    However even if salaries at the top level are higher in the private sector, salaries on average are higher in the public sector now
    Pensions too.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,826
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Endillion said:

    Sandpit said:

    Re lack of science in cabinet. My understanding is there a similar dearth across the civil service and it is something Patrick Valence in particular has been raising for ages. In a modern economy having sufficient expertise in science is crucial.

    I guess the problem is say a STEM PhD from a top tier university is going to have a range of well paid opportunities, i doubt the civil service ranks very highly on that.

    It’s something that Cummings identified very early on in government. There’s a total lack of timely and accurate data reaching the decision-makers.

    Yes, they probably need to dig deep into their pockets for a bunch of STEM PhDs, who have the opportunity to go into the City or tech company where £200k salaries are the norm.
    Why the heck do they need PhDs? Just compete with the audit/consulting/non-banking financial services firms for ordinary maths/econ/natsci bachelors, rather than the current situation of everyone having PPE from Oxford/Durham (uninformed stereotype alert). Starting salaries 25k-40k, rising to 50k-100k within ~5 years. Or is even that pricing themselves out the game?
    The lack of Cambridge and promotion of Durham is going to put you in @TSE 's bad books.

    But in reality if you want great people you need to pay them and the civil service isn't structured in a way that makes that possible - general IT has similar issues...
    "Starting salaries for the three agencies - GCHQ, MI5 and MI6 - are in the region of £25,000 to £35,000, plus benefits. There are opportunities to progress to higher grades, with salaries reaching around £40,000 after five to ten years' service."

    This isn't exactly going to attract the best and the brightest.....
    If you want higher salaries for civil servants and government agents who pays for them? Taxpayers.

    However even if salaries at the top level are higher in the private sector, salaries on average are higher in the public sector now
    A lot of the lowest paying work in the public sector has now been contracted out of course. AA basically disappeared. I doubt we're better paid on average than the private sector though perhaps the pension etc means a better overall package, I don't know.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    DougSeal said:

    The PM spreading his political fairy dust I see. Introducing restrictions too late to make an epidemiological difference and too strong not to piss off his own party. He must be toast now? Who is supporting him in post?

    HYUFD.
    And Benny from Crossroads.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    kyf_100 said:

    eek said:

    Endillion said:

    Sandpit said:

    Re lack of science in cabinet. My understanding is there a similar dearth across the civil service and it is something Patrick Valence in particular has been raising for ages. In a modern economy having sufficient expertise in science is crucial.

    I guess the problem is say a STEM PhD from a top tier university is going to have a range of well paid opportunities, i doubt the civil service ranks very highly on that.

    It’s something that Cummings identified very early on in government. There’s a total lack of timely and accurate data reaching the decision-makers.

    Yes, they probably need to dig deep into their pockets for a bunch of STEM PhDs, who have the opportunity to go into the City or tech company where £200k salaries are the norm.
    Why the heck do they need PhDs? Just compete with the audit/consulting/non-banking financial services firms for ordinary maths/econ/natsci bachelors, rather than the current situation of everyone having PPE from Oxford/Durham (uninformed stereotype alert). Starting salaries 25k-40k, rising to 50k-100k within ~5 years. Or is even that pricing themselves out the game?
    The lack of Cambridge and promotion of Durham is going to put you in @TSE 's bad books.

    But in reality if you want great people you need to pay them and the civil service isn't structured in a way that makes that possible - general IT has similar issues...
    "Starting salaries for the three agencies - GCHQ, MI5 and MI6 - are in the region of £25,000 to £35,000, plus benefits. There are opportunities to progress to higher grades, with salaries reaching around £40,000 after five to ten years' service."

    This isn't exactly going to attract the best and the brightest.....
    How on earth does 007 afford his Savile Row suits and Omega watches then? He must have a heck of an expense account...
    Only child, parents both deceased, went to Eton, Rolex (not omega) supplied by q branch
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Endillion said:

    Sandpit said:

    Re lack of science in cabinet. My understanding is there a similar dearth across the civil service and it is something Patrick Valence in particular has been raising for ages. In a modern economy having sufficient expertise in science is crucial.

    I guess the problem is say a STEM PhD from a top tier university is going to have a range of well paid opportunities, i doubt the civil service ranks very highly on that.

    It’s something that Cummings identified very early on in government. There’s a total lack of timely and accurate data reaching the decision-makers.

    Yes, they probably need to dig deep into their pockets for a bunch of STEM PhDs, who have the opportunity to go into the City or tech company where £200k salaries are the norm.
    Why the heck do they need PhDs? Just compete with the audit/consulting/non-banking financial services firms for ordinary maths/econ/natsci bachelors, rather than the current situation of everyone having PPE from Oxford/Durham (uninformed stereotype alert). Starting salaries 25k-40k, rising to 50k-100k within ~5 years. Or is even that pricing themselves out the game?
    The lack of Cambridge and promotion of Durham is going to put you in @TSE 's bad books.

    But in reality if you want great people you need to pay them and the civil service isn't structured in a way that makes that possible - general IT has similar issues...
    "Starting salaries for the three agencies - GCHQ, MI5 and MI6 - are in the region of £25,000 to £35,000, plus benefits. There are opportunities to progress to higher grades, with salaries reaching around £40,000 after five to ten years' service."

    This isn't exactly going to attract the best and the brightest.....
    If you want higher salaries for civil servants and government agents who pays for them? Taxpayers.

    However even if salaries at the top level are higher in the private sector, salaries on average are higher in the public sector now
    Don't properly reward the good, never sack the crap... massive structural selection pressure for shit people.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368

    HYUFD said:

    What Boris is considering from Dec 27th, not a full lockdown but close to it. However Christmas itself would be saved.

    Potential Step 2 restrictions from Dec 27

    Work from home if you can
    No socialising indoors
    Hairdressers Beauty Salons OPEN
    Higher education to learn remotely
    Indoor entertainment CLOSED
    NO holidays
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1472935457021435904?s=20

    There is more chance of a snowstorm in hades than people following the second point down. The ban on indoor mixing is to many the true “lockdown.”
    No holidays is just going to annoy people, no indoor entertainment - well that's the west end completely and permanently f***ed.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594

    If there is going to be a vote on restrictions, perhaps the government should give parliament options:

    *) No restrictions at all.
    *) Restrictions after Christmas
    *) Restrictions before Christmas.

    where what 'restrictions' means is well-defined (e.g. as mentioned below, level 2 from last year). If the first fails, you go onto a vote between 2 and 3.

    And allow a free vote, although recommend the second.

    Come to that, how about a public vote show, organised by Simon Cowell, with Ant and Dec hosting?

    Could be a good annual event.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Aslan said:

    Endillion said:

    Sandpit said:

    Re lack of science in cabinet. My understanding is there a similar dearth across the civil service and it is something Patrick Valence in particular has been raising for ages. In a modern economy having sufficient expertise in science is crucial.

    I guess the problem is say a STEM PhD from a top tier university is going to have a range of well paid opportunities, i doubt the civil service ranks very highly on that.

    It’s something that Cummings identified very early on in government. There’s a total lack of timely and accurate data reaching the decision-makers.

    Yes, they probably need to dig deep into their pockets for a bunch of STEM PhDs, who have the opportunity to go into the City or tech company where £200k salaries are the norm.
    Why the heck do they need PhDs? Just compete with the audit/consulting/non-banking financial services firms for ordinary maths/econ/natsci bachelors, rather than the current situation of everyone having PPE from Oxford/Durham (uninformed stereotype alert). Starting salaries 25k-40k, rising to 50k-100k within ~5 years. Or is even that pricing themselves out the game?
    That would be slightly below the top consulting and law firms, and way below investment banking. Fine if you are happy to get Deloitte types but you won't be competing with BCG or JP Morgan.
    Better benefits (specifically pensions), better work/life balance, and the chance to directly affect the real world in a more tangible way, to compensate. "Deloitte types" are absolutely fine.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    HYUFD said:

    What Boris is considering from Dec 27th, not a full lockdown but close to it. However Christmas itself would be saved.

    Potential Step 2 restrictions from Dec 27

    Work from home if you can
    No socialising indoors
    Hairdressers Beauty Salons OPEN
    Higher education to learn remotely
    Indoor entertainment CLOSED
    NO holidays
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1472935457021435904?s=20

    HOWEVER CHRISTMAS ITSELF WOULD BE SAVED.
    Boris Johnson, 2019-2021.

    Funded by the Epping Forest Conservative Association.
    What does no holidays mean? No foreign travel?
  • https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1472938907784331264

    We're told that the more likely scenario - as disclosed by The Times at the weekend - is a two-week circuit breaker after Christmas

    The 28th has been pencilled in by officials as the starting point for the new curbs - again taking into account the 48 hours needed for recall

    What an utter shitshow
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747
    I do hope the pretenders to the throne realise that this is not about Xmas Day but about the lazy falling back to pointless and costly restrictions at any time.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    Endillion said:

    Sandpit said:

    Re lack of science in cabinet. My understanding is there a similar dearth across the civil service and it is something Patrick Valence in particular has been raising for ages. In a modern economy having sufficient expertise in science is crucial.

    I guess the problem is say a STEM PhD from a top tier university is going to have a range of well paid opportunities, i doubt the civil service ranks very highly on that.

    It’s something that Cummings identified very early on in government. There’s a total lack of timely and accurate data reaching the decision-makers.

    Yes, they probably need to dig deep into their pockets for a bunch of STEM PhDs, who have the opportunity to go into the City or tech company where £200k salaries are the norm.
    Why the heck do they need PhDs? Just compete with the audit/consulting/non-banking financial services firms for ordinary maths/econ/natsci bachelors, rather than the current situation of everyone having PPE from Oxford/Durham (uninformed stereotype alert). Starting salaries 25k-40k, rising to 50k-100k within ~5 years. Or is even that pricing themselves out the game?
    That might work after a decade or so, once the teams are in place - but not initially, where your STEM graduates would quickly either go native or become disillusioned working for liberal arts graduates in the middle ranks of the civil service.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    What Boris is considering from Dec 27th, not a full lockdown but close to it. However Christmas itself would be saved.

    Potential Step 2 restrictions from Dec 27

    Work from home if you can
    No socialising indoors
    Hairdressers Beauty Salons OPEN
    Higher education to learn remotely
    Indoor entertainment CLOSED
    NO holidays
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1472935457021435904?s=20

    HOWEVER CHRISTMAS ITSELF WOULD BE SAVED.
    Boris Johnson, 2019-2021.

    Funded by the Epping Forest Conservative Association.
    What does no holidays mean? No foreign travel?
    Dunno.

    My Portuguese-villa buddies are now shitting themselves that they won’t be able to get back to the U.K.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Endillion said:

    Sandpit said:

    Re lack of science in cabinet. My understanding is there a similar dearth across the civil service and it is something Patrick Valence in particular has been raising for ages. In a modern economy having sufficient expertise in science is crucial.

    I guess the problem is say a STEM PhD from a top tier university is going to have a range of well paid opportunities, i doubt the civil service ranks very highly on that.

    It’s something that Cummings identified very early on in government. There’s a total lack of timely and accurate data reaching the decision-makers.

    Yes, they probably need to dig deep into their pockets for a bunch of STEM PhDs, who have the opportunity to go into the City or tech company where £200k salaries are the norm.
    Why the heck do they need PhDs? Just compete with the audit/consulting/non-banking financial services firms for ordinary maths/econ/natsci bachelors, rather than the current situation of everyone having PPE from Oxford/Durham (uninformed stereotype alert). Starting salaries 25k-40k, rising to 50k-100k within ~5 years. Or is even that pricing themselves out the game?
    The lack of Cambridge and promotion of Durham is going to put you in @TSE 's bad books.

    But in reality if you want great people you need to pay them and the civil service isn't structured in a way that makes that possible - general IT has similar issues...
    "Starting salaries for the three agencies - GCHQ, MI5 and MI6 - are in the region of £25,000 to £35,000, plus benefits. There are opportunities to progress to higher grades, with salaries reaching around £40,000 after five to ten years' service."

    This isn't exactly going to attract the best and the brightest.....
    If you want higher salaries for civil servants and government agents who pays for them? Taxpayers.

    However even if salaries at the top level are higher in the private sector, salaries on average are higher in the public sector now
    A lot of the lowest paying work in the public sector has now been contracted out of course. AA basically disappeared. I doubt we're better paid on average than the private sector though perhaps the pension etc means a better overall package, I don't know.
    The real problem for the public purse is you can't fire anyone. The elite private sector firms can pay high salaries because they know they can get rid of most of their low performers. And even the middling performers have mostly gone by the time you get to senior levels. You always get a few wastes of space in every organization but they are far fewer and further between.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Boris is not going to reach the Theresa May milestone, is he?

    Hahahahahaahhahahahahahahhahahahahahahhahahahahha.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1472938907784331264

    We're told that the more likely scenario - as disclosed by The Times at the weekend - is a two-week circuit breaker after Christmas

    The 28th has been pencilled in by officials as the starting point for the new curbs - again taking into account the 48 hours needed for recall

    What an utter shitshow

    I think we can expect widespread disobedience this time around. Maybe enough to make the efforts entirely futile.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,917
    edited December 2021
    maaarsh said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Endillion said:

    Sandpit said:

    Re lack of science in cabinet. My understanding is there a similar dearth across the civil service and it is something Patrick Valence in particular has been raising for ages. In a modern economy having sufficient expertise in science is crucial.

    I guess the problem is say a STEM PhD from a top tier university is going to have a range of well paid opportunities, i doubt the civil service ranks very highly on that.

    It’s something that Cummings identified very early on in government. There’s a total lack of timely and accurate data reaching the decision-makers.

    Yes, they probably need to dig deep into their pockets for a bunch of STEM PhDs, who have the opportunity to go into the City or tech company where £200k salaries are the norm.
    Why the heck do they need PhDs? Just compete with the audit/consulting/non-banking financial services firms for ordinary maths/econ/natsci bachelors, rather than the current situation of everyone having PPE from Oxford/Durham (uninformed stereotype alert). Starting salaries 25k-40k, rising to 50k-100k within ~5 years. Or is even that pricing themselves out the game?
    The lack of Cambridge and promotion of Durham is going to put you in @TSE 's bad books.

    But in reality if you want great people you need to pay them and the civil service isn't structured in a way that makes that possible - general IT has similar issues...
    "Starting salaries for the three agencies - GCHQ, MI5 and MI6 - are in the region of £25,000 to £35,000, plus benefits. There are opportunities to progress to higher grades, with salaries reaching around £40,000 after five to ten years' service."

    This isn't exactly going to attract the best and the brightest.....
    If you want higher salaries for civil servants and government agents who pays for them? Taxpayers.

    However even if salaries at the top level are higher in the private sector, salaries on average are higher in the public sector now
    Don't properly reward the good, never sack the crap... massive structural selection pressure for shit people.
    The public sector generally offers more security than the private sector and a slightly higher average wage and a better pension but if you want to be rich then you are better off working in the private sector, that has always and likely always will be the case
  • I think Labour would be much more likely to favour PR for Westminster for GE2028/9 if Tories retain their majority at GE2024 as that would be 5 consecutive defeats.

    If Labour were to go for AMS, I think LDs would reluctantly agree instead of insisting on STV. Any thoughts please? Thanks

    Pamela
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    Thanks for header, Nick. Yes, co-operation and smart voting is going to be key to GTTO next time and like you I’m starting to feel more confident of it, even allowing for this surely being trough Cons.

    Don’t know about ruling out a Lab majority though. I have been but I’m not so sure now. I have it laid at 6 and this no longer looks quite the value ‘buying money’ trade that it did at the time.

    Longer term, I’m a convert to PR despite liking many aspects of FPTP. Without it I see our politics getting very polarized a la the US. We’ll be driven into 2 ‘values’ based camps, Prog v Trad, evolving out of Remain v Leave, and people will be forced to choose which side they’re on.

    That sort of politics is stimulating, it clarifies and engages, produces elections of high drama and significance, but is it the way to run a country? No, I don’t think it is.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590
    HYUFD said:

    maaarsh said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Endillion said:

    Sandpit said:

    Re lack of science in cabinet. My understanding is there a similar dearth across the civil service and it is something Patrick Valence in particular has been raising for ages. In a modern economy having sufficient expertise in science is crucial.

    I guess the problem is say a STEM PhD from a top tier university is going to have a range of well paid opportunities, i doubt the civil service ranks very highly on that.

    It’s something that Cummings identified very early on in government. There’s a total lack of timely and accurate data reaching the decision-makers.

    Yes, they probably need to dig deep into their pockets for a bunch of STEM PhDs, who have the opportunity to go into the City or tech company where £200k salaries are the norm.
    Why the heck do they need PhDs? Just compete with the audit/consulting/non-banking financial services firms for ordinary maths/econ/natsci bachelors, rather than the current situation of everyone having PPE from Oxford/Durham (uninformed stereotype alert). Starting salaries 25k-40k, rising to 50k-100k within ~5 years. Or is even that pricing themselves out the game?
    The lack of Cambridge and promotion of Durham is going to put you in @TSE 's bad books.

    But in reality if you want great people you need to pay them and the civil service isn't structured in a way that makes that possible - general IT has similar issues...
    "Starting salaries for the three agencies - GCHQ, MI5 and MI6 - are in the region of £25,000 to £35,000, plus benefits. There are opportunities to progress to higher grades, with salaries reaching around £40,000 after five to ten years' service."

    This isn't exactly going to attract the best and the brightest.....
    If you want higher salaries for civil servants and government agents who pays for them? Taxpayers.

    However even if salaries at the top level are higher in the private sector, salaries on average are higher in the public sector now
    Don't properly reward the good, never sack the crap... massive structural selection pressure for shit people.
    The public sector offers more security than the private sector but if you want to be rich then you are better off working in the private sector, that has always and likely always will be the case
    Yes - anyone bright and amibious will leave, and anyone crap looking for a safe paycheck will stay.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373
    Aslan said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Endillion said:

    Sandpit said:

    Re lack of science in cabinet. My understanding is there a similar dearth across the civil service and it is something Patrick Valence in particular has been raising for ages. In a modern economy having sufficient expertise in science is crucial.

    I guess the problem is say a STEM PhD from a top tier university is going to have a range of well paid opportunities, i doubt the civil service ranks very highly on that.

    It’s something that Cummings identified very early on in government. There’s a total lack of timely and accurate data reaching the decision-makers.

    Yes, they probably need to dig deep into their pockets for a bunch of STEM PhDs, who have the opportunity to go into the City or tech company where £200k salaries are the norm.
    Why the heck do they need PhDs? Just compete with the audit/consulting/non-banking financial services firms for ordinary maths/econ/natsci bachelors, rather than the current situation of everyone having PPE from Oxford/Durham (uninformed stereotype alert). Starting salaries 25k-40k, rising to 50k-100k within ~5 years. Or is even that pricing themselves out the game?
    The lack of Cambridge and promotion of Durham is going to put you in @TSE 's bad books.

    But in reality if you want great people you need to pay them and the civil service isn't structured in a way that makes that possible - general IT has similar issues...
    "Starting salaries for the three agencies - GCHQ, MI5 and MI6 - are in the region of £25,000 to £35,000, plus benefits. There are opportunities to progress to higher grades, with salaries reaching around £40,000 after five to ten years' service."

    This isn't exactly going to attract the best and the brightest.....
    If you want higher salaries for civil servants and government agents who pays for them? Taxpayers.

    However even if salaries at the top level are higher in the private sector, salaries on average are higher in the public sector now
    A lot of the lowest paying work in the public sector has now been contracted out of course. AA basically disappeared. I doubt we're better paid on average than the private sector though perhaps the pension etc means a better overall package, I don't know.
    The real problem for the public purse is you can't fire anyone. The elite private sector firms can pay high salaries because they know they can get rid of most of their low performers. And even the middling performers have mostly gone by the time you get to senior levels. You always get a few wastes of space in every organization but they are far fewer and further between.
    Hmmmm - I think every senior banker in 2007-08 kind of refutes that point pretty easily.

    As does every telecoms exec.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,802
    If we get to the 28th with no restrictions and COVID hospitalisations haven't exploded how would they go ahead with the restrictions?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,917
    edited December 2021
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    What Boris is considering from Dec 27th, not a full lockdown but close to it. However Christmas itself would be saved.

    Potential Step 2 restrictions from Dec 27

    Work from home if you can
    No socialising indoors
    Hairdressers Beauty Salons OPEN
    Higher education to learn remotely
    Indoor entertainment CLOSED
    NO holidays
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1472935457021435904?s=20

    There is more chance of a snowstorm in hades than people following the second point down. The ban on indoor mixing is to many the true “lockdown.”
    No holidays is just going to annoy people, no indoor entertainment - well that's the west end completely and permanently f***ed.
    Perhaps they could do some outdoor shows if people wrapped up warm and had heaters and hot chocolate? You could have more outdoor cinemas too watched from your car
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1472938907784331264

    We're told that the more likely scenario - as disclosed by The Times at the weekend - is a two-week circuit breaker after Christmas

    The 28th has been pencilled in by officials as the starting point for the new curbs - again taking into account the 48 hours needed for recall

    What an utter shitshow

    That means it will end the day I’m due to hand in my next MA assignment. Time will fly…
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Endillion said:

    Sandpit said:

    Re lack of science in cabinet. My understanding is there a similar dearth across the civil service and it is something Patrick Valence in particular has been raising for ages. In a modern economy having sufficient expertise in science is crucial.

    I guess the problem is say a STEM PhD from a top tier university is going to have a range of well paid opportunities, i doubt the civil service ranks very highly on that.

    It’s something that Cummings identified very early on in government. There’s a total lack of timely and accurate data reaching the decision-makers.

    Yes, they probably need to dig deep into their pockets for a bunch of STEM PhDs, who have the opportunity to go into the City or tech company where £200k salaries are the norm.
    Why the heck do they need PhDs? Just compete with the audit/consulting/non-banking financial services firms for ordinary maths/econ/natsci bachelors, rather than the current situation of everyone having PPE from Oxford/Durham (uninformed stereotype alert). Starting salaries 25k-40k, rising to 50k-100k within ~5 years. Or is even that pricing themselves out the game?
    The lack of Cambridge and promotion of Durham is going to put you in @TSE 's bad books.

    But in reality if you want great people you need to pay them and the civil service isn't structured in a way that makes that possible - general IT has similar issues...
    "Starting salaries for the three agencies - GCHQ, MI5 and MI6 - are in the region of £25,000 to £35,000, plus benefits. There are opportunities to progress to higher grades, with salaries reaching around £40,000 after five to ten years' service."

    This isn't exactly going to attract the best and the brightest.....
    If you want higher salaries for civil servants and government agents who pays for them? Taxpayers.

    However even if salaries at the top level are higher in the private sector, salaries on average are higher in the public sector now
    Pensions too.
    Pensions are great but the idea that your average civil servant / local government officer is well paid is something I just don't believe given the evidence I see locally.

    Heck the treasury roles being advertised are all £15-25k less than you could get round here with the skillset required so I dread to think what they are getting
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    What Boris is considering from Dec 27th, not a full lockdown but close to it. However Christmas itself would be saved.

    Potential Step 2 restrictions from Dec 27

    Work from home if you can
    No socialising indoors
    Hairdressers Beauty Salons OPEN
    Higher education to learn remotely
    Indoor entertainment CLOSED
    NO holidays
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1472935457021435904?s=20

    There is more chance of a snowstorm in hades than people following the second point down. The ban on indoor mixing is to many the true “lockdown.”
    No holidays is just going to annoy people, no indoor entertainment - well that's the west end completely and permanently f***ed.
    Perhaps they could do some outdoor shows if people wrapped up warm and had heaters and hot chocolate?
    You mean hot broth, surely?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair's SA update:

    Predicted week 50 admissions: 8146 (massive fall from yesterday's projection. Now only +13% week on week)
    Predicted week 50 deaths: 391 (slightly down from 400 yesterday. a +77% week on week so still a big rise)

    Percentage Ventilated: 2.7%
    Percentage Oxygenated: 14.5%

    Basically it looks like other regions that are not Gauteng have not seen the steep rise in admissions that you would have been expecting.

    A bit more good news re: Omicron?
    What difference does it make if the government simply ignores it?
    To be fair i am not an official government adviser.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373
    PamelaW said:

    I think Labour would be much more likely to favour PR for Westminster for GE2028/9 if Tories retain their majority at GE2024 as that would be 5 consecutive defeats.

    If Labour were to go for AMS, I think LDs would reluctantly agree instead of insisting on STV. Any thoughts please? Thanks

    Pamela

    Additional member system as practised in this country is a joke. It's the reason why Labour wins every election in Wales despite frequently having quite low vote shares. If it were the New Zealand AMS that would be different, but you can bet it wouldn't be.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    Right Populism defeated in Chile! Brazil next, I hope.

    Then here.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1472938907784331264

    We're told that the more likely scenario - as disclosed by The Times at the weekend - is a two-week circuit breaker after Christmas

    The 28th has been pencilled in by officials as the starting point for the new curbs - again taking into account the 48 hours needed for recall

    What an utter shitshow

    So let’s get this straight.

    He doesn’t want to impose restrictions for Christmas Day, because it’s last minute and horrendously unpopular.

    He wants to impose restrictions after Christmas, but wants to delay telling everyone, therefore making it even more last minute and horrendously unpopular.

    Classic Boris.
    He also needs to get it through Parliament which is a problem because the Tories are going to rebel and I wouldn't be surprised if Labour abstained.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    ydoethur said:

    PamelaW said:

    I think Labour would be much more likely to favour PR for Westminster for GE2028/9 if Tories retain their majority at GE2024 as that would be 5 consecutive defeats.

    If Labour were to go for AMS, I think LDs would reluctantly agree instead of insisting on STV. Any thoughts please? Thanks

    Pamela

    Additional member system as practised in this country is a joke. It's the reason why Labour wins every election in Wales despite frequently having quite low vote shares. If it were the New Zealand AMS that would be different, but you can bet it wouldn't be.
    Yes.
    This is one of my little hobby-horses.
    The Welsh and Scottish systems are stitch-ups.
    Potemkin PR.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,792
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    What Boris is considering from Dec 27th, not a full lockdown but close to it. However Christmas itself would be saved.

    Potential Step 2 restrictions from Dec 27

    Work from home if you can
    No socialising indoors
    Hairdressers Beauty Salons OPEN
    Higher education to learn remotely
    Indoor entertainment CLOSED
    NO holidays
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1472935457021435904?s=20

    There is more chance of a snowstorm in hades than people following the second point down. The ban on indoor mixing is to many the true “lockdown.”
    No holidays is just going to annoy people, no indoor entertainment - well that's the west end completely and permanently f***ed.
    Perhaps they could do some outdoor shows if people wrapped up warm and had heaters and hot chocolate? You could have more outdoor cinemas too watched from your car
    HYUFD, you seemed to think there would be a VONC if there was a lockdown - this seems like a lockdown to me - do you think there will be a VONC?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    What Boris is considering from Dec 27th, not a full lockdown but close to it. However Christmas itself would be saved.

    Potential Step 2 restrictions from Dec 27

    Work from home if you can
    No socialising indoors
    Hairdressers Beauty Salons OPEN
    Higher education to learn remotely
    Indoor entertainment CLOSED
    NO holidays
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1472935457021435904?s=20

    There is more chance of a snowstorm in hades than people following the second point down. The ban on indoor mixing is to many the true “lockdown.”
    No holidays is just going to annoy people, no indoor entertainment - well that's the west end completely and permanently f***ed.
    Perhaps they could do some outdoor shows if people wrapped up warm and had heaters and hot chocolate? You could have more outdoor cinemas too watched from your car
    You are a really really committed performance artist aren’t you? It’s the only explanation.
  • PJHPJH Posts: 645
    Maffew said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    What Boris is considering from Dec 27th, not a full lockdown but close to it. However Christmas itself would be saved.

    Potential Step 2 restrictions from Dec 27

    Work from home if you can
    No socialising indoors
    Hairdressers Beauty Salons OPEN
    Higher education to learn remotely
    Indoor entertainment CLOSED
    NO holidays
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1472935457021435904?s=20

    Pointless
    Well that would ruin my holiday. While I, of course, wouldn't advocate breaking the law, I think it would be fair to say many people would not feel any moral obligation to restrict their socialising at this point and short of full on parties I can't see any realistic enforcement.
    Indeed, and some of us may have planned our family/friends gatherings around the Bank Holidays of 27/28th. I can see lots of people carrying on regardless. I shall.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    MaxPB said:

    If we get to the 28th with no restrictions and COVID hospitalisations haven't exploded how would they go ahead with the restrictions?

    They wouldn't, natch.

    Its a way of pretending you are still in control, when you are not really in control.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926
    Any update on recall?
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590
    RobD said:

    Any update on recall?

    Still either a very good secret or a very nasty post.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373
    RobD said:

    Any update on recall?

    Johnson's forgotten.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590
    edited December 2021
    Alistair said:

    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair's SA update:

    Predicted week 50 admissions: 8146 (massive fall from yesterday's projection. Now only +13% week on week)
    Predicted week 50 deaths: 391 (slightly down from 400 yesterday. a +77% week on week so still a big rise)

    Percentage Ventilated: 2.7%
    Percentage Oxygenated: 14.5%

    Basically it looks like other regions that are not Gauteng have not seen the steep rise in admissions that you would have been expecting.

    A bit more good news re: Omicron?
    What difference does it make if the government simply ignores it?
    To be fair i am not an official government adviser.
    Any material change in your RSA projection?

    EDIT - sorry just saw!
  • DougSeal said:

    The PM spreading his political fairy dust I see. Introducing restrictions too late to make an epidemiological difference and too strong not to piss off his own party. He must be toast now? Who is supporting him in post?

    HYUFD.
    And Benny from Crossroads.
    Though I hear that Benny from Crossroads is taking soundings, with a view to standing on a "competence" platform.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,917
    edited December 2021
    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    What Boris is considering from Dec 27th, not a full lockdown but close to it. However Christmas itself would be saved.

    Potential Step 2 restrictions from Dec 27

    Work from home if you can
    No socialising indoors
    Hairdressers Beauty Salons OPEN
    Higher education to learn remotely
    Indoor entertainment CLOSED
    NO holidays
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1472935457021435904?s=20

    There is more chance of a snowstorm in hades than people following the second point down. The ban on indoor mixing is to many the true “lockdown.”
    No holidays is just going to annoy people, no indoor entertainment - well that's the west end completely and permanently f***ed.
    Perhaps they could do some outdoor shows if people wrapped up warm and had heaters and hot chocolate? You could have more outdoor cinemas too watched from your car
    HYUFD, you seemed to think there would be a VONC if there was a lockdown - this seems like a lockdown to me - do you think there will be a VONC?
    It seems like a semi lockdown not a full lockdown. I expect there will be a VONC in 2022 but likely only after the local elections, if the polls are still bad and the Tories have lost a lot of council seats then would be the move. Rebel Tory MPs only get one shot to get 51% of their colleagues to no confidence Boris or he is safe for a full year
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829

    ydoethur said:

    PamelaW said:

    I think Labour would be much more likely to favour PR for Westminster for GE2028/9 if Tories retain their majority at GE2024 as that would be 5 consecutive defeats.

    If Labour were to go for AMS, I think LDs would reluctantly agree instead of insisting on STV. Any thoughts please? Thanks

    Pamela

    Additional member system as practised in this country is a joke. It's the reason why Labour wins every election in Wales despite frequently having quite low vote shares. If it were the New Zealand AMS that would be different, but you can bet it wouldn't be.
    Yes.
    This is one of my little hobby-horses.
    The Welsh and Scottish systems are stitch-ups.
    Potemkin PR.
    Quite so. B*gg*red d'Hondt basically, to ensure Labour + little LD helpers supermacy for eternity at Holyrood. (Which is also an illustration of the point made earlier on the thread about unexpected consequences.)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    edited December 2021
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Endillion said:

    Sandpit said:

    Re lack of science in cabinet. My understanding is there a similar dearth across the civil service and it is something Patrick Valence in particular has been raising for ages. In a modern economy having sufficient expertise in science is crucial.

    I guess the problem is say a STEM PhD from a top tier university is going to have a range of well paid opportunities, i doubt the civil service ranks very highly on that.

    It’s something that Cummings identified very early on in government. There’s a total lack of timely and accurate data reaching the decision-makers.

    Yes, they probably need to dig deep into their pockets for a bunch of STEM PhDs, who have the opportunity to go into the City or tech company where £200k salaries are the norm.
    Why the heck do they need PhDs? Just compete with the audit/consulting/non-banking financial services firms for ordinary maths/econ/natsci bachelors, rather than the current situation of everyone having PPE from Oxford/Durham (uninformed stereotype alert). Starting salaries 25k-40k, rising to 50k-100k within ~5 years. Or is even that pricing themselves out the game?
    The lack of Cambridge and promotion of Durham is going to put you in @TSE 's bad books.

    But in reality if you want great people you need to pay them and the civil service isn't structured in a way that makes that possible - general IT has similar issues...
    "Starting salaries for the three agencies - GCHQ, MI5 and MI6 - are in the region of £25,000 to £35,000, plus benefits. There are opportunities to progress to higher grades, with salaries reaching around £40,000 after five to ten years' service."

    This isn't exactly going to attract the best and the brightest.....
    If you want higher salaries for civil servants and government agents who pays for them? Taxpayers.

    However even if salaries at the top level are higher in the private sector, salaries on average are higher in the public sector now
    The issue isn’t necessarily the salaries, but the inflexible pay grades and unwillingness to bring in exceptional talent at an appropriate grade. The competitors for the STEM PhDs, are going to be offering £100k starting salaries, to 25-year-olds, rising quickly to £200k.

    @eek and I had a conversation on this last week, from the viewpoint of the police looking to hire specific skills to investigate cyber-crime. He and I could do this sort of work, but would be looking for what’s usually an Inspector’s salary, rather than an Constable’s.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590

    Christopher Snowdon
    @cjsnowdon
    The UK government has a choice between believing in vaccines and believing in quack modelling. No country with such a high % of antibodies from vaccines and prior infection should be considering any restrictions on freedom.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,792
    RobD said:

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1472938907784331264

    We're told that the more likely scenario - as disclosed by The Times at the weekend - is a two-week circuit breaker after Christmas

    The 28th has been pencilled in by officials as the starting point for the new curbs - again taking into account the 48 hours needed for recall

    What an utter shitshow

    I think we can expect widespread disobedience this time around. Maybe enough to make the efforts entirely futile.
    There won't be, though.
    My patents will follow it. So I won't be able to see them. And there will be the issue from last time of 'does family x feel the same way or will they be horrified if we suggest the children see their friends'?
    Some people will be able to break it with impunity, but most will just sit inside and seethe.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,133
    edited December 2021
    ydoethur said:

    Aslan said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Endillion said:

    Sandpit said:

    Re lack of science in cabinet. My understanding is there a similar dearth across the civil service and it is something Patrick Valence in particular has been raising for ages. In a modern economy having sufficient expertise in science is crucial.

    I guess the problem is say a STEM PhD from a top tier university is going to have a range of well paid opportunities, i doubt the civil service ranks very highly on that.

    It’s something that Cummings identified very early on in government. There’s a total lack of timely and accurate data reaching the decision-makers.

    Yes, they probably need to dig deep into their pockets for a bunch of STEM PhDs, who have the opportunity to go into the City or tech company where £200k salaries are the norm.
    Why the heck do they need PhDs? Just compete with the audit/consulting/non-banking financial services firms for ordinary maths/econ/natsci bachelors, rather than the current situation of everyone having PPE from Oxford/Durham (uninformed stereotype alert). Starting salaries 25k-40k, rising to 50k-100k within ~5 years. Or is even that pricing themselves out the game?
    The lack of Cambridge and promotion of Durham is going to put you in @TSE 's bad books.

    But in reality if you want great people you need to pay them and the civil service isn't structured in a way that makes that possible - general IT has similar issues...
    "Starting salaries for the three agencies - GCHQ, MI5 and MI6 - are in the region of £25,000 to £35,000, plus benefits. There are opportunities to progress to higher grades, with salaries reaching around £40,000 after five to ten years' service."

    This isn't exactly going to attract the best and the brightest.....
    If you want higher salaries for civil servants and government agents who pays for them? Taxpayers.

    However even if salaries at the top level are higher in the private sector, salaries on average are higher in the public sector now
    A lot of the lowest paying work in the public sector has now been contracted out of course. AA basically disappeared. I doubt we're better paid on average than the private sector though perhaps the pension etc means a better overall package, I don't know.
    The real problem for the public purse is you can't fire anyone. The elite private sector firms can pay high salaries because they know they can get rid of most of their low performers. And even the middling performers have mostly gone by the time you get to senior levels. You always get a few wastes of space in every organization but they are far fewer and further between.
    Hmmmm - I think every senior banker in 2007-08 kind of refutes that point pretty easily.

    As does every telecoms exec.
    Indeed. The story of the financial crisis was of what turned out to be very poorly-performing, but hugely and lavishly remunerated and senior private sector workers, who in fact almost destroyed the entire global economic system.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368
    ydoethur said:

    PamelaW said:

    I think Labour would be much more likely to favour PR for Westminster for GE2028/9 if Tories retain their majority at GE2024 as that would be 5 consecutive defeats.

    If Labour were to go for AMS, I think LDs would reluctantly agree instead of insisting on STV. Any thoughts please? Thanks

    Pamela

    Additional member system as practised in this country is a joke. It's the reason why Labour wins every election in Wales despite frequently having quite low vote shares. If it were the New Zealand AMS that would be different, but you can bet it wouldn't be.
    All voting systems can be rigged to be completely useless - so for example Scotland where the ideal approach would be for the SNP to have a sister list only party to really grab all the seats (thankfully they don't have that and Alba just proved how toxic Alex Salmond was).
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373

    DougSeal said:

    The PM spreading his political fairy dust I see. Introducing restrictions too late to make an epidemiological difference and too strong not to piss off his own party. He must be toast now? Who is supporting him in post?

    HYUFD.
    And Benny from Crossroads.
    Though I hear that Benny from Crossroads is taking soundings, with a view to standing on a "competence" platform.
    Benny Hill would be able to beat this lot on a Competency platform.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,802
    Alistair said:

    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair's SA update:

    Predicted week 50 admissions: 8146 (massive fall from yesterday's projection. Now only +13% week on week)
    Predicted week 50 deaths: 391 (slightly down from 400 yesterday. a +77% week on week so still a big rise)

    Percentage Ventilated: 2.7%
    Percentage Oxygenated: 14.5%

    Basically it looks like other regions that are not Gauteng have not seen the steep rise in admissions that you would have been expecting.

    A bit more good news re: Omicron?
    What difference does it make if the government simply ignores it?
    To be fair i am not an official government adviser.
    No of course not, though one imagines a similar analysis should be being done by someone in SAGE. It would still get ignored, just as the real world three dose vaccine efficacy and Omicron symptom manifestation has been.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,826
    General question. Would Geomag be a good resent for a six year old boy?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368
    edited December 2021
    MaxPB said:

    If we get to the 28th with no restrictions and COVID hospitalisations haven't exploded how would they go ahead with the restrictions?

    If we aren't locking down until the 28th and keeping everything else going - what's the point of a lockdown? - the damage will already be done...

  • PJH said:

    Maffew said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    What Boris is considering from Dec 27th, not a full lockdown but close to it. However Christmas itself would be saved.

    Potential Step 2 restrictions from Dec 27

    Work from home if you can
    No socialising indoors
    Hairdressers Beauty Salons OPEN
    Higher education to learn remotely
    Indoor entertainment CLOSED
    NO holidays
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1472935457021435904?s=20

    Pointless
    Well that would ruin my holiday. While I, of course, wouldn't advocate breaking the law, I think it would be fair to say many people would not feel any moral obligation to restrict their socialising at this point and short of full on parties I can't see any realistic enforcement.
    Indeed, and some of us may have planned our family/friends gatherings around the Bank Holidays of 27/28th. I can see lots of people carrying on regardless. I shall.
    This is basically the problem. The 27th/28th is not business as usual for a lot of people. All the way up to NYE/NYD people have plans.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    MattW said:

    https://fabians.org.uk/moving-the-marginals/

    Very interesting.

    The Fabian Society commissioned a GB-wide poll from YouGov with a specially-commissioned sub-group of the 125 seats in England and Wales where Labour came closest to winning in 2019. The survey was conducted on 8 to 13 December before the North Shropshire byelection and 668 people living in the Labour target seats took part.
    We found that Labour leads the Conservatives by nine percentage points in the 125 seats (Labour 43, Conservative 34). By contrast, at the 2019 election the Conservatives led in these seats by 12 points (Labour 37, Conservative 49).

    The Tories are in big big trouble

    Can some polling nerd help me here?

    A sample of 668 across 125 seats - 5 samples per seat on average - gives a result accurate to within a % or three.

    What are the error margins here?
    Why does the number of seats matter?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    ydoethur said:

    DougSeal said:

    The PM spreading his political fairy dust I see. Introducing restrictions too late to make an epidemiological difference and too strong not to piss off his own party. He must be toast now? Who is supporting him in post?

    HYUFD.
    And Benny from Crossroads.
    Though I hear that Benny from Crossroads is taking soundings, with a view to standing on a "competence" platform.
    Benny Hill would be able to beat this lot on a Competency platform.
    You mean, as the original master of Johnsonist pastiche?
  • PJHPJH Posts: 645
    HYUFD said:

    maaarsh said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Endillion said:

    Sandpit said:

    Re lack of science in cabinet. My understanding is there a similar dearth across the civil service and it is something Patrick Valence in particular has been raising for ages. In a modern economy having sufficient expertise in science is crucial.

    I guess the problem is say a STEM PhD from a top tier university is going to have a range of well paid opportunities, i doubt the civil service ranks very highly on that.

    It’s something that Cummings identified very early on in government. There’s a total lack of timely and accurate data reaching the decision-makers.

    Yes, they probably need to dig deep into their pockets for a bunch of STEM PhDs, who have the opportunity to go into the City or tech company where £200k salaries are the norm.
    Why the heck do they need PhDs? Just compete with the audit/consulting/non-banking financial services firms for ordinary maths/econ/natsci bachelors, rather than the current situation of everyone having PPE from Oxford/Durham (uninformed stereotype alert). Starting salaries 25k-40k, rising to 50k-100k within ~5 years. Or is even that pricing themselves out the game?
    The lack of Cambridge and promotion of Durham is going to put you in @TSE 's bad books.

    But in reality if you want great people you need to pay them and the civil service isn't structured in a way that makes that possible - general IT has similar issues...
    "Starting salaries for the three agencies - GCHQ, MI5 and MI6 - are in the region of £25,000 to £35,000, plus benefits. There are opportunities to progress to higher grades, with salaries reaching around £40,000 after five to ten years' service."

    This isn't exactly going to attract the best and the brightest.....
    If you want higher salaries for civil servants and government agents who pays for them? Taxpayers.

    However even if salaries at the top level are higher in the private sector, salaries on average are higher in the public sector now
    Don't properly reward the good, never sack the crap... massive structural selection pressure for shit people.
    The public sector generally offers more security than the private sector and a slightly higher average wage and a better pension but if you want to be rich then you are better off working in the private sector, that has always and likely always will be the case
    Can you give some examples? That's not my experience when comparing Civil Service salaries with private sector equivalents, even after making allowance for better pensions (note that final salary schemes have now mostly been replaced). However I'm out of the loop on local government and teaching so don't know for sure.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,940
    edited December 2021
    IshmaelZ said:

    kyf_100 said:

    eek said:

    Endillion said:

    Sandpit said:

    Re lack of science in cabinet. My understanding is there a similar dearth across the civil service and it is something Patrick Valence in particular has been raising for ages. In a modern economy having sufficient expertise in science is crucial.

    I guess the problem is say a STEM PhD from a top tier university is going to have a range of well paid opportunities, i doubt the civil service ranks very highly on that.

    It’s something that Cummings identified very early on in government. There’s a total lack of timely and accurate data reaching the decision-makers.

    Yes, they probably need to dig deep into their pockets for a bunch of STEM PhDs, who have the opportunity to go into the City or tech company where £200k salaries are the norm.
    Why the heck do they need PhDs? Just compete with the audit/consulting/non-banking financial services firms for ordinary maths/econ/natsci bachelors, rather than the current situation of everyone having PPE from Oxford/Durham (uninformed stereotype alert). Starting salaries 25k-40k, rising to 50k-100k within ~5 years. Or is even that pricing themselves out the game?
    The lack of Cambridge and promotion of Durham is going to put you in @TSE 's bad books.

    But in reality if you want great people you need to pay them and the civil service isn't structured in a way that makes that possible - general IT has similar issues...
    "Starting salaries for the three agencies - GCHQ, MI5 and MI6 - are in the region of £25,000 to £35,000, plus benefits. There are opportunities to progress to higher grades, with salaries reaching around £40,000 after five to ten years' service."

    This isn't exactly going to attract the best and the brightest.....
    How on earth does 007 afford his Savile Row suits and Omega watches then? He must have a heck of an expense account...
    Only child, parents both deceased, went to Eton, Rolex (not omega) supplied by q branch
    Ah, Bond has been an Omega man since the 90s. Perhaps expensive product placement deals are how he supplements his income ;)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oB5hzlDe10c

    But yes. Perhaps they have a sign in the MI6 offices that says "you don't have to be independently wealthy to work here, but it helps!"
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373
    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    DougSeal said:

    The PM spreading his political fairy dust I see. Introducing restrictions too late to make an epidemiological difference and too strong not to piss off his own party. He must be toast now? Who is supporting him in post?

    HYUFD.
    And Benny from Crossroads.
    Though I hear that Benny from Crossroads is taking soundings, with a view to standing on a "competence" platform.
    Benny Hill would be able to beat this lot on a Competency platform.
    You mean, as the original master of Johnsonist pastiche?
    Well, just on the basis that he sometimes achieved what he intended to, which was to make us laugh.

    Johnson can't even do that now.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    Rumours on Twitter that a return to Step 2 for 28 days after Xmas is going to be announced
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,826
    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    If we get to the 28th with no restrictions and COVID hospitalisations haven't exploded how would they go ahead with the restrictions?

    If we aren't locking down until the 28th and keeping everything else going - what's the point of a lockdown? - the damage will already be done...

    There are a few mad people out there who probably think that's the idea. Purposely do a lockdown too late in order to prove that it doesn't work and we shouldn't bother with them anymore.
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