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Betting on another CON majority – Part 1 – politicalbetting.com
Betting on another CON majority – Part 1 – politicalbetting.com
One of the interesting bets currently available is on the likelihood of a Conservative overall majority at the next election. The markets were pricing this at 36% on 19 November, down from evens in July. The general consensus is that an election is highly unlikely for eighteen months at least. Long-term readers of this site may recall me arguing that you can’t predict the result of an election from mid-term opinion polls or leader ratings. Nevertheless, the decline in the perceived likelihood of a Conservative majority is clearly related to the decline in the Conservative poll lead, from double digits over the summer, to around zero today.
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@OmicronNews
Breaking: The Dutch #RIVM has confirmed 13 #Omicron cases out of the 61 positives. #coronavirus #Corona
That’s 13 cases of OMICRON THE MIGHTY on just one flight to Europe. How many flights have come from Southern Africa to Europe, N America, Asia, in the last week or so? There must be a few thousand cases seeded worldwide
The criticism is from the South African GP based upon her experience of treating 20-30 patients.
And of course if the government had taken no action, it would be why aren't the government taking any action when Europe is locking down and Israel has totally shut its border to foriegners.
In 2 weeks, when it is everywhere, the BBC will be running Javid defends not taking more action.
Which ain’t great
https://twitter.com/J_Donaldson_MP/status/1464937411885031425?s=20
So the odds are for either a narrow Tory majority as in 1992, another Tory minority government propped up by the DUP as in 2017 or a Starmer minority government propped up by the LDs (as Cameron was in 2010) and almost certainly by the SNP too
Yes I’ve considered that as well. Possibly true
Take the Swiss red list on the UK (due to 2 cases)
Will they now do the same to Belgium, Holland, Austria (next door), Germany (ditto), Italy (ditto) Czechia, Hong Kong, Australia and Singapore - which also have cases?
And then the USA as it inevitably detects cases?
It cannot be sustained for long. Also, if Omicron is THAT infectious it will rip across the world in weeks and be done and dusted by spring. No need for rules then. That’s my *optimistic* scenario, and even better if Omicron is milder, that means the end of the ‘demic
My fear is the psychology of border closures. They’re like lockdowns. Much harder, mentally, to lift than to impose. It’s always harder to expose yourself to risk than shield yourself from it
Lockdowns and travel bans drag on…
They then whine when air travel is stopped.
Much can happen in 3 years but I am inclined to think Conservatives should secure between 326 and 340 seats next time.
Even the older double vaccinated should be protected from it according to most scientists estimations once they have had their boosters which most over 70s now have had
Then the severity is crucial. Let’s say it’s as bad as Delta but no worse - a neutral position. That means many millions of deaths and horrible strain on health systems, in Europe and the USA (because of enough unvaxxed still) let alone the unvaxxed global south
And that’s ignoring its potential to reinfect, mentioned specifically by WHO as one reason for calling it a Variant of Concern
Of course it might - as per the nice Saffer GP lady - induce mild symptoms in almost all, which would be fucking brilliant, and I will stand rounds of champagne at the next PB meet. Seriously
Let us hope and pray
No hurry apparently.
England data using ONS mid 2020 population numbers....
Age 1st 2nd
12 to 15 43.83% 0.61%
16 to 17 65.11% 17.46%
18 to 24 76.74% 66.29%
25 to 29 78.33% 70.17%
30 to 34 85.32% 77.99%
35 to 39 87.70% 81.93%
40 to 44 92.82% 88.23%
45 to 49 89.95% 86.65%
50 to 54 94.77% 92.24%
55 to 59 97.36% 95.09%
60 to 64 99.47% 97.43%
65 to 69 96.90% 95.69%
70 to 74 96.12% 95.30%
75 to 79 102.59% 101.82%
80 to 84 95.02% 94.30%
85 to 89 95.91% 95.09%
90+ 90.54% 89.56%
But - how many of those vote Tory?
Given a choice between kicking a lot of Labour voters and having his own voters suffer due to pressure on the NHS and restrictions on the wider population, given his extremely factional, even transactional approach I wouldn't go bail for Johnson holding out.
One doctor in SA says she’s seeing more young people with severe disease, another lady doctor in SA says she’s seeing youngsters with much milder disease
🤷♂️
Hospitalisations are increasing in SA especially in Gauteng but that doesn’t tell us much about the severity. People could be in and out in two days
Also this variant is just so new in most people. It takes time to get really sick from Covid. Those who are mild now might die in ten days
We will know everything we need to know in a fortnight or so. It’s a bit like a pivotal battle in the middle of a huge war. Kursk, perhaps
Or maybe this is the Ardennes invasion by a desperate virus on its last legs?
https://youtu.be/4yX6ETCKyPo
Compare and contrast with Glory, where casting Matthew Broderick was held to be wrong, because he looked too young. Despite being about the right age, looking like Col. Shaw *and* being a descendent of Shaw!
They've had, and still have, the opportunity to get protection.
Those were 1945, 1964, 1992, 1997 and 2010. It is hardly that small a sample size and in 4 out of 5 of them the PM lost and the one who won, Major in 1992 still lost 40 seats. If Boris lost 40 seats on current boundaries it would be a hung parliament in 2023/24
A political idiot got on his hind legs and denounced the "hoarders" buying 25Kg sacks of rice. When, about 5 minutes latter, he was informed of who buys 25Kg sacks of rice in the UK and why, he sat down and shut up....
The LSHTM has done some really solid modeling on this recently, essentially looking into this scenario of a very, very highly transmissive variant that doesn't necessarily evade existing immunity. The UK could see 0.06% of the entire population require hospital treatment within a few weeks, that's 40k people and almost 3k people arriving in hospital everyday, vaccinated and unvaccinated. That's about the same as the highest rate we've ever had, it will lead to a reduction of healthcare provision across the nation for two to three months. Let's look at Germany in that model, the LSHTM say that 0.6% (10x the UK number) could turn up at hospitals in the same timeframe, that's 500k people potentially requiring hospital treatment within a two/three week timeframe. That could be 25k people per day showing up at hospital. I have no idea what that even looks like, my brain can't even compute the idea of it.
Rudolph Steiner has a lot to answer for.
He has also shifted RefUK to be a largely libertarian, anti lockdown, low tax, small government party rather than just a vehicle against immigration post Brexit, making it more respectable for mainstream right voters to consider if they think Boris is too statist and authoritarian
You could toss a balanced coin on five occasions and happen to get 4 heads and 1 tail. If you do, what are the odds that you get a head next time?
Our plan, such as it is, seems to be to give as many boosters as possible, double vax more school kids and pray that our hospitals empty out a bit more before they start filling up again. Every little helps, as the saying goes, but I am not seeing anything in that which is not very much at the margins.
In fact go to almost any western democracy and there is normally a change of government after one party has been in power after 10 years. That is just the natural electoral cycle, otherwise you are heading to a one party state if one party stays in power for decades
But yes, there is no hard evidence that Omicron is more or less nasty/virulent in the vaxxed. It is all speculation
However we now have 13 Omicron cases in Holland all in one place. A nice little sub sample to watch. If none of them fall ill (let alone die) then that’s definitely good news. Of course we need to know their vax status too
But I'd be quite happy to financially dis-incentivise anti-vaxxers firstly through their tax codes and secondly through charging them for any medical treatment they receive.
Even the SNP do not have a majority in Scotland at Holyrood and Scotland is still just a part of the UK anyway with a Tory UK government, not an independent country
Wiki says he was an Austrian philosopher.
WHO thinks this is possible, which is not good for the UK, as we are relying on that wall of natural immunity built over the summer
We shall soon see
Bear in mind SA had extremely low case numbers until a few weeks ago which would be good news for a new variant trying to make a name for itself. So if they are now rising rapidly, and a large proportion are Delta, then maybe the growth advantage Omicron has isn’t so big after all.
As far as I can see there’s not much point panicking until we see vaccine efficacy stats against severe illness. If those hold up, then I think it’s as you were. If not then we need to get those repurposed jabs fast tracked.
Weird Teutonic holistic educational philosophy obsessed with colours, stories and ancient sun-demons, with a dash of racism in the mix
Not keen on orthodox mass medicine
Speaking to Sky News, Labour's shadow foreign secretary Lisa Nandy said it was "unconscionable" that France and the UK government were "engaging in a blame game while children drown off our coastline".
She said her party would work with international partners to "open up safe and legal routes" for refugees in order "to pull the rug out from under the business model that these smugglers currently rely on".
My biggest worry over Labour was them opening up the flood gates on immigration and now they confirm they're doing it. And if this is just the stuff they are saying out loud, imagine what else they will do in office. I really wanted to vote against Boris in the next election, but not at the cost of bad immigration decisions that will last decades.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poujade
Elliot Ness and his crew were mostly in their 20's IRL.
Because whatever it was 61 would be a far higher proportion than what South Africa as a whole is supposed to currently have.
It's small wonder that there's so little patience left with people who dig their heels in and won't accept Covid jabs. If your malignant tumour was left to grow and metastasise for another two months because the hospital ICU was crammed with gaspers in self-inflicted distress, and their survival was being prioritised over yours, you wouldn't be very sympathetic to them either.