One of the interesting bets currently available is on the likelihood of a Conservative overall majority at the next election. The markets were pricing this at 36% on 19 November, down from evens in July. The general consensus is that an election is highly unlikely for eighteen months at least. Long-term readers of this site may recall me arguing that you can’t predict the result of an election from mid-term opinion polls or leader ratings. Nevertheless, the decline in the perceived likelihood of a Conservative majority is clearly related to the decline in the Conservative poll lead, from double digits over the summer, to around zero today.