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Betting on another CON majority – Part 1 – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited November 2021 in General
imageBetting on another CON majority – Part 1 – politicalbetting.com

One of the interesting bets currently available is on the likelihood of a Conservative overall majority at the next election.  The markets were pricing this at 36% on 19 November, down from evens in July.  The general consensus is that an election is highly unlikely for eighteen months at least.  Long-term readers of this site may recall me arguing that you can’t predict the result of an election from mid-term opinion polls or leader ratings.  Nevertheless, the decline in the perceived likelihood of a Conservative majority is clearly related to the decline in the Conservative poll lead, from double digits over the summer, to around zero today.

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Comments

  • Test
  • First.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    And even with all that notice @TSE couldn't take time out from his weekend break to bagsy a first...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    This is why travel is rather screwed (and, oh, I wish it weren’t so)


    @OmicronNews

    Breaking: The Dutch #RIVM has confirmed 13 #Omicron cases out of the 61 positives. #coronavirus #Corona

    That’s 13 cases of OMICRON THE MIGHTY on just one flight to Europe. How many flights have come from Southern Africa to Europe, N America, Asia, in the last week or so? There must be a few thousand cases seeded worldwide
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited November 2021
    Classic media headline of the pandemic...BBC - Javid defends swift action.

    The criticism is from the South African GP based upon her experience of treating 20-30 patients.

    And of course if the government had taken no action, it would be why aren't the government taking any action when Europe is locking down and Israel has totally shut its border to foriegners.

    In 2 weeks, when it is everywhere, the BBC will be running Javid defends not taking more action.
  • Leon said:

    This is why travel is rather screwed (and, oh, I wish it weren’t so)


    @OmicronNews

    Breaking: The Dutch #RIVM has confirmed 13 #Omicron cases out of the 61 positives. #coronavirus #Corona

    That’s 13 cases of OMICRON THE MIGHTY on just one flight to Europe. How many flights have come from Southern Africa to Europe, N America, Asia, in the last week or so? There must be a few thousand cases seeded worldwide

    10% of the sample had COVID....clearly all these rules about having to have a negative test are being abused.
  • Nice bit of 'shop.


  • isamisam Posts: 38,638

    Nice bit of 'shop.


    I saw something with Laurence Fox in it for the first time the other day - He was playing Lord Palmerston in Victoria. I can see why people dislike him, thoroughly cocksure and smarmy
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094

    Leon said:

    This is why travel is rather screwed (and, oh, I wish it weren’t so)


    @OmicronNews

    Breaking: The Dutch #RIVM has confirmed 13 #Omicron cases out of the 61 positives. #coronavirus #Corona

    That’s 13 cases of OMICRON THE MIGHTY on just one flight to Europe. How many flights have come from Southern Africa to Europe, N America, Asia, in the last week or so? There must be a few thousand cases seeded worldwide

    10% of the sample had COVID....clearly all these rules about having to have a negative test are being abused.
    Or they are vaxxed or they have records of prior infection, but OMICRON bursts through that immunity like Boris bulldozing polystyrene bricks

    Which ain’t great
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 3,482

    Leon said:

    This is why travel is rather screwed (and, oh, I wish it weren’t so)


    @OmicronNews

    Breaking: The Dutch #RIVM has confirmed 13 #Omicron cases out of the 61 positives. #coronavirus #Corona

    That’s 13 cases of OMICRON THE MIGHTY on just one flight to Europe. How many flights have come from Southern Africa to Europe, N America, Asia, in the last week or so? There must be a few thousand cases seeded worldwide

    10% of the sample had COVID....clearly all these rules about having to have a negative test are being abused.
    I dunno Leon. If it’s seeded everywhere, then after some token restrictions at the beginning, what is the point in keeping travel shut?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    Voters in the Republic of Ireland oppose a united Ireland by 43% to 41% if it means them paying higher taxes to support the North, shock new poll finds
    https://twitter.com/J_Donaldson_MP/status/1464937411885031425?s=20
  • I'm shortly going to put a few pounds on a Labour minority Government
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    edited November 2021
    Historically the Tories should be unlikely to win another majority. Only 1 PM has won a majority at a general election after more than 10 years of their party in power since universal suffrage in 1918, Major in 1992 and even he did so only narrowly and by less than Boris won in 2019.

    So the odds are for either a narrow Tory majority as in 1992, another Tory minority government propped up by the DUP as in 2017 or a Starmer minority government propped up by the LDs (as Cameron was in 2010) and almost certainly by the SNP too
  • The last time the Conservatives won more than half the seats in Scotland was in 1955 and then IIRC by a margin of 36-35.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    HYUFD said:

    Voters in the Republic of Ireland oppose a united Ireland by 43% to 41% if it means them paying higher taxes to support the North, shock new poll finds
    https://twitter.com/J_Donaldson_MP/status/1464937411885031425?s=20

    Not sure having gone from the industrial, prosperous oasis of the island of Ireland to the equivalent of East Germany in a couple of generations is much to boast about, mind.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    This is why travel is rather screwed (and, oh, I wish it weren’t so)


    @OmicronNews

    Breaking: The Dutch #RIVM has confirmed 13 #Omicron cases out of the 61 positives. #coronavirus #Corona

    That’s 13 cases of OMICRON THE MIGHTY on just one flight to Europe. How many flights have come from Southern Africa to Europe, N America, Asia, in the last week or so? There must be a few thousand cases seeded worldwide

    10% of the sample had COVID....clearly all these rules about having to have a negative test are being abused.
    I dunno Leon. If it’s seeded everywhere, then after some token restrictions at the beginning, what is the point in keeping travel shut?

    Yes I’ve considered that as well. Possibly true

    Take the Swiss red list on the UK (due to 2 cases)

    Will they now do the same to Belgium, Holland, Austria (next door), Germany (ditto), Italy (ditto) Czechia, Hong Kong, Australia and Singapore - which also have cases?

    And then the USA as it inevitably detects cases?

    It cannot be sustained for long. Also, if Omicron is THAT infectious it will rip across the world in weeks and be done and dusted by spring. No need for rules then. That’s my *optimistic* scenario, and even better if Omicron is milder, that means the end of the ‘demic

    My fear is the psychology of border closures. They’re like lockdowns. Much harder, mentally, to lift than to impose. It’s always harder to expose yourself to risk than shield yourself from it

    Lockdowns and travel bans drag on…

  • isam said:

    Nice bit of 'shop.


    I saw something with Laurence Fox in it for the first time the other day - He was playing Lord Palmerston in Victoria. I can see why people dislike him, thoroughly cocksure and smarmy
    I went through a period of trying to feel sorry for Lozza as there is something pitiful about him, but back to thinking he deserves all the pelters he gets.
  • Leon said:

    This is why travel is rather screwed (and, oh, I wish it weren’t so)


    @OmicronNews

    Breaking: The Dutch #RIVM has confirmed 13 #Omicron cases out of the 61 positives. #coronavirus #Corona

    That’s 13 cases of OMICRON THE MIGHTY on just one flight to Europe. How many flights have come from Southern Africa to Europe, N America, Asia, in the last week or so? There must be a few thousand cases seeded worldwide

    10% of the sample had COVID....clearly all these rules about having to have a negative test are being abused.
    The airlines and airports have regularly flouted all covid restrictions.

    They then whine when air travel is stopped.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This is why travel is rather screwed (and, oh, I wish it weren’t so)


    @OmicronNews

    Breaking: The Dutch #RIVM has confirmed 13 #Omicron cases out of the 61 positives. #coronavirus #Corona

    That’s 13 cases of OMICRON THE MIGHTY on just one flight to Europe. How many flights have come from Southern Africa to Europe, N America, Asia, in the last week or so? There must be a few thousand cases seeded worldwide

    10% of the sample had COVID....clearly all these rules about having to have a negative test are being abused.
    Or they are vaxxed or they have records of prior infection, but OMICRON bursts through that immunity like Boris bulldozing polystyrene bricks

    Which ain’t great
    Or the records are bullshit, which given record keeping and likelihood of forgeries in SA is probably the most likely scenario.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    isam said:

    Nice bit of 'shop.


    I saw something with Laurence Fox in it for the first time the other day - He was playing Lord Palmerston in Victoria. I can see why people dislike him, thoroughly cocksure and smarmy
    Saw an episode of Lewis for the first time. He plays the uncharismatic half of a double act with Kevin Whately.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,660
    Leon said:

    This is why travel is rather screwed (and, oh, I wish it weren’t so)

    @OmicronNews

    Breaking: The Dutch #RIVM has confirmed 13 #Omicron cases out of the 61 positives. #coronavirus #Corona

    That’s 13 cases of OMICRON THE MIGHTY on just one flight to Europe. How many flights have come from Southern Africa to Europe, N America, Asia, in the last week or so? There must be a few thousand cases seeded worldwide

    It depends how it impacts vaccinated populations. Does it put significantly more people in hospitals and morgues? If it doesn't, it's a blip not a gamechanger.
  • I feel like BoJo is on the way out, that speech felt like the realisation
  • Surely another relevant even if minor factor, in determining potential number of Conservative seats at next GE is that Boundary Changes are likely go give them an advantage of 10 or even 13 (according to Martin Baxter) seats thus increasing their notional GE2019 seats from 365 to 375 or 378?

    Much can happen in 3 years but I am inclined to think Conservatives should secure between 326 and 340 seats next time.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 41,069
    Leon said:

    This is why travel is rather screwed (and, oh, I wish it weren’t so)


    @OmicronNews

    Breaking: The Dutch #RIVM has confirmed 13 #Omicron cases out of the 61 positives. #coronavirus #Corona

    That’s 13 cases of OMICRON THE MIGHTY on just one flight to Europe. How many flights have come from Southern Africa to Europe, N America, Asia, in the last week or so? There must be a few thousand cases seeded worldwide

    If its anything like as infectious as the preliminary reports indicate it will be 90%+ of all cases everywhere within a month. At which point travel bans are completely superfluous.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    edited November 2021
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    This is why travel is rather screwed (and, oh, I wish it weren’t so)

    @OmicronNews

    Breaking: The Dutch #RIVM has confirmed 13 #Omicron cases out of the 61 positives. #coronavirus #Corona

    That’s 13 cases of OMICRON THE MIGHTY on just one flight to Europe. How many flights have come from Southern Africa to Europe, N America, Asia, in the last week or so? There must be a few thousand cases seeded worldwide

    It depends how it impacts vaccinated populations. Does it put significantly more people in hospitals and morgues? If it doesn't, it's a blip not a gamechanger.
    Yes, the evidence so far is that Omicron is only bad news for the non double vaccinated in terms of potential hospitalisation and death, certainly that is true for the young.

    Even the older double vaccinated should be protected from it according to most scientists estimations once they have had their boosters which most over 70s now have had
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    This is why travel is rather screwed (and, oh, I wish it weren’t so)

    @OmicronNews

    Breaking: The Dutch #RIVM has confirmed 13 #Omicron cases out of the 61 positives. #coronavirus #Corona

    That’s 13 cases of OMICRON THE MIGHTY on just one flight to Europe. How many flights have come from Southern Africa to Europe, N America, Asia, in the last week or so? There must be a few thousand cases seeded worldwide

    It depends how it impacts vaccinated populations. Does it put significantly more people in hospitals and morgues? If it doesn't, it's a blip not a gamechanger.
    No, its impact on the unvaxxed is just as important. Because if it really is 500% more transmissible than Delta, then no lockdown will stop it, and everyone will get it in short order

    Then the severity is crucial. Let’s say it’s as bad as Delta but no worse - a neutral position. That means many millions of deaths and horrible strain on health systems, in Europe and the USA (because of enough unvaxxed still) let alone the unvaxxed global south

    And that’s ignoring its potential to reinfect, mentioned specifically by WHO as one reason for calling it a Variant of Concern

    Of course it might - as per the nice Saffer GP lady - induce mild symptoms in almost all, which would be fucking brilliant, and I will stand rounds of champagne at the next PB meet. Seriously

    Let us hope and pray

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    Burnley v Spurs OFF.
  • sladeslade Posts: 1,402
    A blast from the past. Oswestry by-election 1961. John Biffen (Conservative) 12428. 40.8%; John Buchanan (Liberal) 8647, 28.4%; Brian Walden (Labour) 8519, 28.0%; John Dayton (Patriotic Front) 839, 2.8%. Swing 13.7% Con to Lib.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 41,069
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    This is why travel is rather screwed (and, oh, I wish it weren’t so)

    @OmicronNews

    Breaking: The Dutch #RIVM has confirmed 13 #Omicron cases out of the 61 positives. #coronavirus #Corona

    That’s 13 cases of OMICRON THE MIGHTY on just one flight to Europe. How many flights have come from Southern Africa to Europe, N America, Asia, in the last week or so? There must be a few thousand cases seeded worldwide

    It depends how it impacts vaccinated populations. Does it put significantly more people in hospitals and morgues? If it doesn't, it's a blip not a gamechanger.
    Yes, the evidence so far is that Omicron is only bad news for the non double vaccinated in terms of potential hospitalisation and death, certainly that is true for the young.

    Even the older double vaccinated should be protected from it according to most scientists estimations once they have had their boosters which most over 70s now have had
    What it certainly does mean is that we need to get on with double vaxxing our younger people as a matter of urgency. Action this day as Boris's hero used to say.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    slade said:

    A blast from the past. Oswestry by-election 1961. John Biffen (Conservative) 12428. 40.8%; John Buchanan (Liberal) 8647, 28.4%; Brian Walden (Labour) 8519, 28.0%; John Dayton (Patriotic Front) 839, 2.8%. Swing 13.7% Con to Lib.

    John Biffen and Brian Walden. 80's nostalgia for da kidz.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 70,303
    isam said:

    Nice bit of 'shop.


    I saw something with Laurence Fox in it for the first time the other day - He was playing Lord Palmerston in Victoria. I can see why people dislike him, thoroughly cocksure and smarmy
    Weird, I'd seen that and not placed that it was him at all. I thought he was pretty good in it, though the character was a smarmy dick.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    This is why travel is rather screwed (and, oh, I wish it weren’t so)

    @OmicronNews

    Breaking: The Dutch #RIVM has confirmed 13 #Omicron cases out of the 61 positives. #coronavirus #Corona

    That’s 13 cases of OMICRON THE MIGHTY on just one flight to Europe. How many flights have come from Southern Africa to Europe, N America, Asia, in the last week or so? There must be a few thousand cases seeded worldwide

    It depends how it impacts vaccinated populations. Does it put significantly more people in hospitals and morgues? If it doesn't, it's a blip not a gamechanger.
    Yes, the evidence so far is that Omicron is only bad news for the non double vaccinated in terms of potential hospitalisation and death, certainly that is true for the young.

    Even the older double vaccinated should be protected from it according to most scientists estimations once they have had their boosters which most over 70s now have had
    What it certainly does mean is that we need to get on with double vaxxing our younger people as a matter of urgency. Action this day as Boris's hero used to say.
    To come back to an earlier point I made - at what stage will the government consider compulsory vaccinations ? Can't be far off if this is as bad as some fear.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    It's snowing. Again.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    Meanwhile. Still having no luck bringing my booster forward. Despite being 55, and within 10 days of the 6 months since my second jab.
    No hurry apparently.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 22,380
    kle4 said:

    isam said:

    Nice bit of 'shop.


    I saw something with Laurence Fox in it for the first time the other day - He was playing Lord Palmerston in Victoria. I can see why people dislike him, thoroughly cocksure and smarmy
    Weird, I'd seen that and not placed that it was him at all. I thought he was pretty good in it, though the character was a smarmy dick.
    Worth pointing out that quite a few of Palmerstons contemporaries thought he was cocksure and smarmy, so it might just be... acting.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,660
    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    This is why travel is rather screwed (and, oh, I wish it weren’t so)


    @OmicronNews

    Breaking: The Dutch #RIVM has confirmed 13 #Omicron cases out of the 61 positives. #coronavirus #Corona

    That’s 13 cases of OMICRON THE MIGHTY on just one flight to Europe. How many flights have come from Southern Africa to Europe, N America, Asia, in the last week or so? There must be a few thousand cases seeded worldwide

    If its anything like as infectious as the preliminary reports indicate it will be 90%+ of all cases everywhere within a month. At which point travel bans are completely superfluous.
    I know many people think travel bans are a slam dunk but I'm not sure they add much value unless backed up by a rigorous test, trace & isolate regime.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 5,083
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    This is why travel is rather screwed (and, oh, I wish it weren’t so)

    @OmicronNews

    Breaking: The Dutch #RIVM has confirmed 13 #Omicron cases out of the 61 positives. #coronavirus #Corona

    That’s 13 cases of OMICRON THE MIGHTY on just one flight to Europe. How many flights have come from Southern Africa to Europe, N America, Asia, in the last week or so? There must be a few thousand cases seeded worldwide

    It depends how it impacts vaccinated populations. Does it put significantly more people in hospitals and morgues? If it doesn't, it's a blip not a gamechanger.
    No, its impact on the unvaxxed is just as important. Because if it really is 500% more transmissible than Delta, then no lockdown will stop it, and everyone will get it in short order

    Then the severity is crucial. Let’s say it’s as bad as Delta but no worse - a neutral position. That means many millions of deaths and horrible strain on health systems, in Europe and the USA (because of enough unvaxxed still) let alone the unvaxxed global south

    And that’s ignoring its potential to reinfect, mentioned specifically by WHO as one reason for calling it a Variant of Concern

    Of course it might - as per the nice Saffer GP lady - induce mild symptoms in almost all, which would be fucking brilliant, and I will stand rounds of champagne at the next PB meet. Seriously

    Let us hope and pray

    Is there much evidence for its severity?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited November 2021
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    This is why travel is rather screwed (and, oh, I wish it weren’t so)

    @OmicronNews

    Breaking: The Dutch #RIVM has confirmed 13 #Omicron cases out of the 61 positives. #coronavirus #Corona

    That’s 13 cases of OMICRON THE MIGHTY on just one flight to Europe. How many flights have come from Southern Africa to Europe, N America, Asia, in the last week or so? There must be a few thousand cases seeded worldwide

    It depends how it impacts vaccinated populations. Does it put significantly more people in hospitals and morgues? If it doesn't, it's a blip not a gamechanger.
    Yes, the evidence so far is that Omicron is only bad news for the non double vaccinated in terms of potential hospitalisation and death, certainly that is true for the young.

    Even the older double vaccinated should be protected from it according to most scientists estimations once they have had their boosters which most over 70s now have had
    What it certainly does mean is that we need to get on with double vaxxing our younger people as a matter of urgency. Action this day as Boris's hero used to say.
    To come back to an earlier point I made - at what stage will the government consider compulsory vaccinations ? Can't be far off if this is as bad as some fear.
    I don't think they will. We don't mandate them for any other disease, even ones that are even more infectious. Instead it will be continued "nudge" by making life a pain in the ass if you aren't.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 31,040
    edited November 2021
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    This is why travel is rather screwed (and, oh, I wish it weren’t so)

    @OmicronNews

    Breaking: The Dutch #RIVM has confirmed 13 #Omicron cases out of the 61 positives. #coronavirus #Corona

    That’s 13 cases of OMICRON THE MIGHTY on just one flight to Europe. How many flights have come from Southern Africa to Europe, N America, Asia, in the last week or so? There must be a few thousand cases seeded worldwide

    It depends how it impacts vaccinated populations. Does it put significantly more people in hospitals and morgues? If it doesn't, it's a blip not a gamechanger.
    Yes, the evidence so far is that Omicron is only bad news for the non double vaccinated in terms of potential hospitalisation and death, certainly that is true for the young.

    Even the older double vaccinated should be protected from it according to most scientists estimations once they have had their boosters which most over 70s now have had
    What it certainly does mean is that we need to get on with double vaxxing our younger people as a matter of urgency. Action this day as Boris's hero used to say.
    Even if that action was launching ice floe aircraft carriers or invading Europe via Greece. That element of Churchill's character is probably the one BJ gets closest to, though pretty much restricted to aborted bridges. He doesn't really need an Alanbrook to deflect him from disaster because strangely he doesn't seem to have much force of will or powers of persuasion, on a cabinet level at least.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 21,301
    Burnley v Tottenham snowed off.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 1,617
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    This is why travel is rather screwed (and, oh, I wish it weren’t so)

    @OmicronNews

    Breaking: The Dutch #RIVM has confirmed 13 #Omicron cases out of the 61 positives. #coronavirus #Corona

    That’s 13 cases of OMICRON THE MIGHTY on just one flight to Europe. How many flights have come from Southern Africa to Europe, N America, Asia, in the last week or so? There must be a few thousand cases seeded worldwide

    It depends how it impacts vaccinated populations. Does it put significantly more people in hospitals and morgues? If it doesn't, it's a blip not a gamechanger.
    Yes, the evidence so far is that Omicron is only bad news for the non double vaccinated in terms of potential hospitalisation and death, certainly that is true for the young.

    Even the older double vaccinated should be protected from it according to most scientists estimations once they have had their boosters which most over 70s now have had
    What it certainly does mean is that we need to get on with double vaxxing our younger people as a matter of urgency. Action this day as Boris's hero used to say.
    To come back to an earlier point I made - at what stage will the government consider compulsory vaccinations ? Can't be far off if this is as bad as some fear.
    They won't do it unless they're absolutely desperate. Can you imagine how much screaming there will be if they go down the route of punitive fines as in Austria, and it takes about five minutes for somebody to crunch the numbers and work out that they're being disproportionately inflicted upon black people with low incomes?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 5,083

    kle4 said:

    isam said:

    Nice bit of 'shop.


    I saw something with Laurence Fox in it for the first time the other day - He was playing Lord Palmerston in Victoria. I can see why people dislike him, thoroughly cocksure and smarmy
    Weird, I'd seen that and not placed that it was him at all. I thought he was pretty good in it, though the character was a smarmy dick.
    Worth pointing out that quite a few of Palmerstons contemporaries thought he was cocksure and smarmy, so it might just be... acting.
    Yes, his acting seems an odd reason to take against him. He seems far too young to be playing Palmerston though.
  • TazTaz Posts: 3,114
    dixiedean said:

    isam said:

    Nice bit of 'shop.


    I saw something with Laurence Fox in it for the first time the other day - He was playing Lord Palmerston in Victoria. I can see why people dislike him, thoroughly cocksure and smarmy
    Saw an episode of Lewis for the first time. He plays the uncharismatic half of a double act with Kevin Whately.
    I like him in Lewis, his character is the perfect foil to Lewis and he plays the role well.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 22,380
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    This is why travel is rather screwed (and, oh, I wish it weren’t so)

    @OmicronNews

    Breaking: The Dutch #RIVM has confirmed 13 #Omicron cases out of the 61 positives. #coronavirus #Corona

    That’s 13 cases of OMICRON THE MIGHTY on just one flight to Europe. How many flights have come from Southern Africa to Europe, N America, Asia, in the last week or so? There must be a few thousand cases seeded worldwide

    It depends how it impacts vaccinated populations. Does it put significantly more people in hospitals and morgues? If it doesn't, it's a blip not a gamechanger.
    Yes, the evidence so far is that Omicron is only bad news for the non double vaccinated in terms of potential hospitalisation and death, certainly that is true for the young.

    Even the older double vaccinated should be protected from it according to most scientists estimations once they have had their boosters which most over 70s now have had
    What it certainly does mean is that we need to get on with double vaxxing our younger people as a matter of urgency. Action this day as Boris's hero used to say.
    To come back to an earlier point I made - at what stage will the government consider compulsory vaccinations ? Can't be far off if this is as bad as some fear.
    The question would be who are they compelling and why.... Take up among the older, vulnerable groups is very high.

    England data using ONS mid 2020 population numbers....

    Age 1st 2nd
    12 to 15 43.83% 0.61%
    16 to 17 65.11% 17.46%
    18 to 24 76.74% 66.29%
    25 to 29 78.33% 70.17%
    30 to 34 85.32% 77.99%
    35 to 39 87.70% 81.93%
    40 to 44 92.82% 88.23%
    45 to 49 89.95% 86.65%
    50 to 54 94.77% 92.24%
    55 to 59 97.36% 95.09%
    60 to 64 99.47% 97.43%
    65 to 69 96.90% 95.69%
    70 to 74 96.12% 95.30%
    75 to 79 102.59% 101.82%
    80 to 84 95.02% 94.30%
    85 to 89 95.91% 95.09%
    90+ 90.54% 89.56%
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,985
    pigeon said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    This is why travel is rather screwed (and, oh, I wish it weren’t so)

    @OmicronNews

    Breaking: The Dutch #RIVM has confirmed 13 #Omicron cases out of the 61 positives. #coronavirus #Corona

    That’s 13 cases of OMICRON THE MIGHTY on just one flight to Europe. How many flights have come from Southern Africa to Europe, N America, Asia, in the last week or so? There must be a few thousand cases seeded worldwide

    It depends how it impacts vaccinated populations. Does it put significantly more people in hospitals and morgues? If it doesn't, it's a blip not a gamechanger.
    Yes, the evidence so far is that Omicron is only bad news for the non double vaccinated in terms of potential hospitalisation and death, certainly that is true for the young.

    Even the older double vaccinated should be protected from it according to most scientists estimations once they have had their boosters which most over 70s now have had
    What it certainly does mean is that we need to get on with double vaxxing our younger people as a matter of urgency. Action this day as Boris's hero used to say.
    To come back to an earlier point I made - at what stage will the government consider compulsory vaccinations ? Can't be far off if this is as bad as some fear.
    They won't do it unless they're absolutely desperate. Can you imagine how much screaming there will be if they go down the route of punitive fines as in Austria, and it takes about five minutes for somebody to crunch the numbers and work out that they're being disproportionately inflicted upon black people with low incomes?
    Yes.

    But - how many of those vote Tory?

    Given a choice between kicking a lot of Labour voters and having his own voters suffer due to pressure on the NHS and restrictions on the wider population, given his extremely factional, even transactional approach I wouldn't go bail for Johnson holding out.
  • TazTaz Posts: 3,114
    dixiedean said:

    Meanwhile. Still having no luck bringing my booster forward. Despite being 55, and within 10 days of the 6 months since my second jab.
    No hurry apparently.

    I’ve got mine tomorrow, it was the first slot I could get when I booked it four weeks ago.
  • The danger of reading too much into the next election based upon what has happened in the past few elections is the small sample size makes things seem significant when they aren't. Classic xkcd applies.

    image
  • dixiedean said:

    slade said:

    A blast from the past. Oswestry by-election 1961. John Biffen (Conservative) 12428. 40.8%; John Buchanan (Liberal) 8647, 28.4%; Brian Walden (Labour) 8519, 28.0%; John Dayton (Patriotic Front) 839, 2.8%. Swing 13.7% Con to Lib.

    John Biffen and Brian Walden. 80's nostalgia for da kidz.
    Nantucket Sleighride, a heady, Proustian jag of prog rock and current affairs.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    This is why travel is rather screwed (and, oh, I wish it weren’t so)

    @OmicronNews

    Breaking: The Dutch #RIVM has confirmed 13 #Omicron cases out of the 61 positives. #coronavirus #Corona

    That’s 13 cases of OMICRON THE MIGHTY on just one flight to Europe. How many flights have come from Southern Africa to Europe, N America, Asia, in the last week or so? There must be a few thousand cases seeded worldwide

    It depends how it impacts vaccinated populations. Does it put significantly more people in hospitals and morgues? If it doesn't, it's a blip not a gamechanger.
    No, its impact on the unvaxxed is just as important. Because if it really is 500% more transmissible than Delta, then no lockdown will stop it, and everyone will get it in short order

    Then the severity is crucial. Let’s say it’s as bad as Delta but no worse - a neutral position. That means many millions of deaths and horrible strain on health systems, in Europe and the USA (because of enough unvaxxed still) let alone the unvaxxed global south

    And that’s ignoring its potential to reinfect, mentioned specifically by WHO as one reason for calling it a Variant of Concern

    Of course it might - as per the nice Saffer GP lady - induce mild symptoms in almost all, which would be fucking brilliant, and I will stand rounds of champagne at the next PB meet. Seriously

    Let us hope and pray

    Is there much evidence for its severity?
    Some, but it is paltry and anecdotal

    One doctor in SA says she’s seeing more young people with severe disease, another lady doctor in SA says she’s seeing youngsters with much milder disease

    🤷‍♂️

    Hospitalisations are increasing in SA especially in Gauteng but that doesn’t tell us much about the severity. People could be in and out in two days

    Also this variant is just so new in most people. It takes time to get really sick from Covid. Those who are mild now might die in ten days

    We will know everything we need to know in a fortnight or so. It’s a bit like a pivotal battle in the middle of a huge war. Kursk, perhaps

    Or maybe this is the Ardennes invasion by a desperate virus on its last legs?
  • ydoethur said:

    It's snowing. Again.

    How's it shakin, Steven?
  • ydoethur said:

    pigeon said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    This is why travel is rather screwed (and, oh, I wish it weren’t so)

    @OmicronNews

    Breaking: The Dutch #RIVM has confirmed 13 #Omicron cases out of the 61 positives. #coronavirus #Corona

    That’s 13 cases of OMICRON THE MIGHTY on just one flight to Europe. How many flights have come from Southern Africa to Europe, N America, Asia, in the last week or so? There must be a few thousand cases seeded worldwide

    It depends how it impacts vaccinated populations. Does it put significantly more people in hospitals and morgues? If it doesn't, it's a blip not a gamechanger.
    Yes, the evidence so far is that Omicron is only bad news for the non double vaccinated in terms of potential hospitalisation and death, certainly that is true for the young.

    Even the older double vaccinated should be protected from it according to most scientists estimations once they have had their boosters which most over 70s now have had
    What it certainly does mean is that we need to get on with double vaxxing our younger people as a matter of urgency. Action this day as Boris's hero used to say.
    To come back to an earlier point I made - at what stage will the government consider compulsory vaccinations ? Can't be far off if this is as bad as some fear.
    They won't do it unless they're absolutely desperate. Can you imagine how much screaming there will be if they go down the route of punitive fines as in Austria, and it takes about five minutes for somebody to crunch the numbers and work out that they're being disproportionately inflicted upon black people with low incomes?
    Yes.

    But - how many of those vote Tory?

    Given a choice between kicking a lot of Labour voters and having his own voters suffer due to pressure on the NHS and restrictions on the wider population, given his extremely factional, even transactional approach I wouldn't go bail for Johnson holding out.
    The answer has always been no vaccination then no hospital treatment.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 3,482
    To distract from the omnicron variant, here’s a really nice interview by GQ with Lue Elizondo, the pentagon ufo whistleblower. As I’ve said for a long time, the real story of our time.

    https://youtu.be/4yX6ETCKyPo
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,843
    Taz said:

    dixiedean said:

    isam said:

    Nice bit of 'shop.


    I saw something with Laurence Fox in it for the first time the other day - He was playing Lord Palmerston in Victoria. I can see why people dislike him, thoroughly cocksure and smarmy
    Saw an episode of Lewis for the first time. He plays the uncharismatic half of a double act with Kevin Whately.
    I like him in Lewis, his character is the perfect foil to Lewis and he plays the role well.

    For too many - once an actor's politics are known - they are no longer good actors. Utterly mental - I mean Vanessa Redgrave's politics are crazy but what an actor she is....to poick just one.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 22,380

    kle4 said:

    isam said:

    Nice bit of 'shop.


    I saw something with Laurence Fox in it for the first time the other day - He was playing Lord Palmerston in Victoria. I can see why people dislike him, thoroughly cocksure and smarmy
    Weird, I'd seen that and not placed that it was him at all. I thought he was pretty good in it, though the character was a smarmy dick.
    Worth pointing out that quite a few of Palmerstons contemporaries thought he was cocksure and smarmy, so it might just be... acting.
    Yes, his acting seems an odd reason to take against him. He seems far too young to be playing Palmerston though.
    There is a fashion for casting people way too young, for historical roles.

    Compare and contrast with Glory, where casting Matthew Broderick was held to be wrong, because he looked too young. Despite being about the right age, looking like Col. Shaw *and* being a descendent of Shaw!
  • dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Voters in the Republic of Ireland oppose a united Ireland by 43% to 41% if it means them paying higher taxes to support the North, shock new poll finds
    https://twitter.com/J_Donaldson_MP/status/1464937411885031425?s=20

    Not sure having gone from the industrial, prosperous oasis of the island of Ireland to the equivalent of East Germany in a couple of generations is much to boast about, mind.
    Yeah, it's not much of a strategy - keep ourselves dirt poor and the Catholics won't want us!
  • ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    This is why travel is rather screwed (and, oh, I wish it weren’t so)

    @OmicronNews

    Breaking: The Dutch #RIVM has confirmed 13 #Omicron cases out of the 61 positives. #coronavirus #Corona

    That’s 13 cases of OMICRON THE MIGHTY on just one flight to Europe. How many flights have come from Southern Africa to Europe, N America, Asia, in the last week or so? There must be a few thousand cases seeded worldwide

    It depends how it impacts vaccinated populations. Does it put significantly more people in hospitals and morgues? If it doesn't, it's a blip not a gamechanger.
    Yes, the evidence so far is that Omicron is only bad news for the non double vaccinated in terms of potential hospitalisation and death, certainly that is true for the young.

    Even the older double vaccinated should be protected from it according to most scientists estimations once they have had their boosters which most over 70s now have had
    What it certainly does mean is that we need to get on with double vaxxing our younger people as a matter of urgency. Action this day as Boris's hero used to say.
    To come back to an earlier point I made - at what stage will the government consider compulsory vaccinations ? Can't be far off if this is as bad as some fear.
    The question would be who are they compelling and why.... Take up among the older, vulnerable groups is very high.

    England data using ONS mid 2020 population numbers....

    Age 1st 2nd
    12 to 15 43.83% 0.61%
    16 to 17 65.11% 17.46%
    18 to 24 76.74% 66.29%
    25 to 29 78.33% 70.17%
    30 to 34 85.32% 77.99%
    35 to 39 87.70% 81.93%
    40 to 44 92.82% 88.23%
    45 to 49 89.95% 86.65%
    50 to 54 94.77% 92.24%
    55 to 59 97.36% 95.09%
    60 to 64 99.47% 97.43%
    65 to 69 96.90% 95.69%
    70 to 74 96.12% 95.30%
    75 to 79 102.59% 101.82%
    80 to 84 95.02% 94.30%
    85 to 89 95.91% 95.09%
    90+ 90.54% 89.56%
    Its easier now to let the anti-vaxxers get infected.

    They've had, and still have, the opportunity to get protection.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    edited November 2021

    The danger of reading too much into the next election based upon what has happened in the past few elections is the small sample size makes things seem significant when they aren't. Classic xkcd applies.

    image

    There have been 5 occasions since universal suffrage in 1918 when a PM faced a general election after more than 10 years of his party in power (which is the key stat to look at rather than just how many times the Tories have won a majority of seats).

    Those were 1945, 1964, 1992, 1997 and 2010. It is hardly that small a sample size and in 4 out of 5 of them the PM lost and the one who won, Major in 1992 still lost 40 seats. If Boris lost 40 seats on current boundaries it would be a hung parliament in 2023/24
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited November 2021
    felix said:

    Taz said:

    dixiedean said:

    isam said:

    Nice bit of 'shop.


    I saw something with Laurence Fox in it for the first time the other day - He was playing Lord Palmerston in Victoria. I can see why people dislike him, thoroughly cocksure and smarmy
    Saw an episode of Lewis for the first time. He plays the uncharismatic half of a double act with Kevin Whately.
    I like him in Lewis, his character is the perfect foil to Lewis and he plays the role well.

    For too many - once an actor's politics are known - they are no longer good actors. Utterly mental - I mean Vanessa Redgrave's politics are crazy but what an actor she is....to poick just one.
    Anybody who does that is dumb as a box of rocks.....loads of great musicians, artists, actors, sports people have held views I disagree with, but that doesn't take away from their talent.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 22,380
    pigeon said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    This is why travel is rather screwed (and, oh, I wish it weren’t so)

    @OmicronNews

    Breaking: The Dutch #RIVM has confirmed 13 #Omicron cases out of the 61 positives. #coronavirus #Corona

    That’s 13 cases of OMICRON THE MIGHTY on just one flight to Europe. How many flights have come from Southern Africa to Europe, N America, Asia, in the last week or so? There must be a few thousand cases seeded worldwide

    It depends how it impacts vaccinated populations. Does it put significantly more people in hospitals and morgues? If it doesn't, it's a blip not a gamechanger.
    Yes, the evidence so far is that Omicron is only bad news for the non double vaccinated in terms of potential hospitalisation and death, certainly that is true for the young.

    Even the older double vaccinated should be protected from it according to most scientists estimations once they have had their boosters which most over 70s now have had
    What it certainly does mean is that we need to get on with double vaxxing our younger people as a matter of urgency. Action this day as Boris's hero used to say.
    To come back to an earlier point I made - at what stage will the government consider compulsory vaccinations ? Can't be far off if this is as bad as some fear.
    They won't do it unless they're absolutely desperate. Can you imagine how much screaming there will be if they go down the route of punitive fines as in Austria, and it takes about five minutes for somebody to crunch the numbers and work out that they're being disproportionately inflicted upon black people with low incomes?
    For some reason this reminds me of an occasion, years ago, when there was a worldwide shortage of rice. The prices started to rise and this hurt in some poor countries.

    A political idiot got on his hind legs and denounced the "hoarders" buying 25Kg sacks of rice. When, about 5 minutes latter, he was informed of who buys 25Kg sacks of rice in the UK and why, he sat down and shut up....
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,660
    Re header, I'll be sticking to my 'intuition 1st analysis 2nd' MO for politics betting but still Fishing's approach is interesting. Essentially he is saying, forget that this is about GEs and Tories, doesn't matter, let's bleed all the colour out if it and just see how runner X has done in event Y over the long term. I think this is valuable. It can point to mispricing, or at the least make you question popular current assumptions. But the key to it being useful is to then resist the temptation to start explaining away individual outliers by reference to specific factors in specific elections. If you do that, you're mixing apples and oranges and throwing away the USP of a desiccated helicopter view.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 1,617
    ydoethur said:

    pigeon said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    This is why travel is rather screwed (and, oh, I wish it weren’t so)

    @OmicronNews

    Breaking: The Dutch #RIVM has confirmed 13 #Omicron cases out of the 61 positives. #coronavirus #Corona

    That’s 13 cases of OMICRON THE MIGHTY on just one flight to Europe. How many flights have come from Southern Africa to Europe, N America, Asia, in the last week or so? There must be a few thousand cases seeded worldwide

    It depends how it impacts vaccinated populations. Does it put significantly more people in hospitals and morgues? If it doesn't, it's a blip not a gamechanger.
    Yes, the evidence so far is that Omicron is only bad news for the non double vaccinated in terms of potential hospitalisation and death, certainly that is true for the young.

    Even the older double vaccinated should be protected from it according to most scientists estimations once they have had their boosters which most over 70s now have had
    What it certainly does mean is that we need to get on with double vaxxing our younger people as a matter of urgency. Action this day as Boris's hero used to say.
    To come back to an earlier point I made - at what stage will the government consider compulsory vaccinations ? Can't be far off if this is as bad as some fear.
    They won't do it unless they're absolutely desperate. Can you imagine how much screaming there will be if they go down the route of punitive fines as in Austria, and it takes about five minutes for somebody to crunch the numbers and work out that they're being disproportionately inflicted upon black people with low incomes?
    Yes.

    But - how many of those vote Tory?

    Given a choice between kicking a lot of Labour voters and having his own voters suffer due to pressure on the NHS and restrictions on the wider population, given his extremely factional, even transactional approach I wouldn't go bail for Johnson holding out.
    That's a fair point. OTOH enforced jabs are going to piss off a lot of Tories, especially the more libertarian ones. His Parliamentary party's faith in him is already weakening, does he want to do more to accelerate the process?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,920

    isam said:

    Nice bit of 'shop.


    I saw something with Laurence Fox in it for the first time the other day - He was playing Lord Palmerston in Victoria. I can see why people dislike him, thoroughly cocksure and smarmy
    I went through a period of trying to feel sorry for Lozza as there is something pitiful about him, but back to thinking he deserves all the pelters he gets.
    I'd not seen Richard Tice before that video from Bexley - have the far right found a post-Farage leader who is actually coherent and sane? (Though the obsession with boilers was a bit worrying.)
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,499
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    This is why travel is rather screwed (and, oh, I wish it weren’t so)

    @OmicronNews

    Breaking: The Dutch #RIVM has confirmed 13 #Omicron cases out of the 61 positives. #coronavirus #Corona

    That’s 13 cases of OMICRON THE MIGHTY on just one flight to Europe. How many flights have come from Southern Africa to Europe, N America, Asia, in the last week or so? There must be a few thousand cases seeded worldwide

    It depends how it impacts vaccinated populations. Does it put significantly more people in hospitals and morgues? If it doesn't, it's a blip not a gamechanger.
    No, its impact on the unvaxxed is just as important. Because if it really is 500% more transmissible than Delta, then no lockdown will stop it, and everyone will get it in short order

    Then the severity is crucial. Let’s say it’s as bad as Delta but no worse - a neutral position. That means many millions of deaths and horrible strain on health systems, in Europe and the USA (because of enough unvaxxed still) let alone the unvaxxed global south

    And that’s ignoring its potential to reinfect, mentioned specifically by WHO as one reason for calling it a Variant of Concern

    Of course it might - as per the nice Saffer GP lady - induce mild symptoms in almost all, which would be fucking brilliant, and I will stand rounds of champagne at the next PB meet. Seriously

    Let us hope and pray

    Is there much evidence for its severity?
    Some, but it is paltry and anecdotal

    One doctor in SA says she’s seeing more young people with severe disease, another lady doctor in SA says she’s seeing youngsters with much milder disease

    🤷‍♂️

    Hospitalisations are increasing in SA especially in Gauteng but that doesn’t tell us much about the severity. People could be in and out in two days

    Also this variant is just so new in most people. It takes time to get really sick from Covid. Those who are mild now might die in ten days

    We will know everything we need to know in a fortnight or so. It’s a bit like a pivotal battle in the middle of a huge war. Kursk, perhaps

    Or maybe this is the Ardennes invasion by a desperate virus on its last legs?
    The first of those was referring to unvaxxed patients. Is there any evidence that Omnicron is more virulent in the vaxxed?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 33,472
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    This is why travel is rather screwed (and, oh, I wish it weren’t so)

    @OmicronNews

    Breaking: The Dutch #RIVM has confirmed 13 #Omicron cases out of the 61 positives. #coronavirus #Corona

    That’s 13 cases of OMICRON THE MIGHTY on just one flight to Europe. How many flights have come from Southern Africa to Europe, N America, Asia, in the last week or so? There must be a few thousand cases seeded worldwide

    It depends how it impacts vaccinated populations. Does it put significantly more people in hospitals and morgues? If it doesn't, it's a blip not a gamechanger.
    That's true for countries like the UK or Israel which have very high levels of vaccine and natural immunity but a really big disaster for somewhere like Germany which has got reasonably good vaccine immunity but very low levels of natural immunity. I just had a look and ~89% of UK adults have had the vaccine plus a further 5-8% having natural immunity. In Germany that's about ~80% and 2-3% among adults. That leaves a huge, huge number of people that could very rapidly need hospital treatment.

    The LSHTM has done some really solid modeling on this recently, essentially looking into this scenario of a very, very highly transmissive variant that doesn't necessarily evade existing immunity. The UK could see 0.06% of the entire population require hospital treatment within a few weeks, that's 40k people and almost 3k people arriving in hospital everyday, vaccinated and unvaccinated. That's about the same as the highest rate we've ever had, it will lead to a reduction of healthcare provision across the nation for two to three months. Let's look at Germany in that model, the LSHTM say that 0.6% (10x the UK number) could turn up at hospitals in the same timeframe, that's 500k people potentially requiring hospital treatment within a two/three week timeframe. That could be 25k people per day showing up at hospital. I have no idea what that even looks like, my brain can't even compute the idea of it.

    Rudolph Steiner has a lot to answer for.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 22,380

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Voters in the Republic of Ireland oppose a united Ireland by 43% to 41% if it means them paying higher taxes to support the North, shock new poll finds
    https://twitter.com/J_Donaldson_MP/status/1464937411885031425?s=20

    Not sure having gone from the industrial, prosperous oasis of the island of Ireland to the equivalent of East Germany in a couple of generations is much to boast about, mind.
    Yeah, it's not much of a strategy - keep ourselves dirt poor and the Catholics won't want us!
    Quite a few business people were convinced that the PIRA was targeting outside investors for attacks and blackmail, during the troubles. The evidence on this is mixed - but the belief was there. See the Don Tidey affair and other similar incidents....
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,499

    ydoethur said:

    pigeon said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    This is why travel is rather screwed (and, oh, I wish it weren’t so)

    @OmicronNews

    Breaking: The Dutch #RIVM has confirmed 13 #Omicron cases out of the 61 positives. #coronavirus #Corona

    That’s 13 cases of OMICRON THE MIGHTY on just one flight to Europe. How many flights have come from Southern Africa to Europe, N America, Asia, in the last week or so? There must be a few thousand cases seeded worldwide

    It depends how it impacts vaccinated populations. Does it put significantly more people in hospitals and morgues? If it doesn't, it's a blip not a gamechanger.
    Yes, the evidence so far is that Omicron is only bad news for the non double vaccinated in terms of potential hospitalisation and death, certainly that is true for the young.

    Even the older double vaccinated should be protected from it according to most scientists estimations once they have had their boosters which most over 70s now have had
    What it certainly does mean is that we need to get on with double vaxxing our younger people as a matter of urgency. Action this day as Boris's hero used to say.
    To come back to an earlier point I made - at what stage will the government consider compulsory vaccinations ? Can't be far off if this is as bad as some fear.
    They won't do it unless they're absolutely desperate. Can you imagine how much screaming there will be if they go down the route of punitive fines as in Austria, and it takes about five minutes for somebody to crunch the numbers and work out that they're being disproportionately inflicted upon black people with low incomes?
    Yes.

    But - how many of those vote Tory?

    Given a choice between kicking a lot of Labour voters and having his own voters suffer due to pressure on the NHS and restrictions on the wider population, given his extremely factional, even transactional approach I wouldn't go bail for Johnson holding out.
    The answer has always been no vaccination then no hospital treatment.
    Nope. That is callous and sets a horrific precedent for other life choices. The answer (if there has to be one) is to dis/incentivise through the tax system.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited November 2021
    Just turned on Beatles documentary, is it really 8hrs of the same 30 mins of them tootling and ordering their lunch?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    edited November 2021

    isam said:

    Nice bit of 'shop.


    I saw something with Laurence Fox in it for the first time the other day - He was playing Lord Palmerston in Victoria. I can see why people dislike him, thoroughly cocksure and smarmy
    I went through a period of trying to feel sorry for Lozza as there is something pitiful about him, but back to thinking he deserves all the pelters he gets.
    I'd not seen Richard Tice before that video from Bexley - have the far right found a post-Farage leader who is actually coherent and sane? (Though the obsession with boilers was a bit worrying.)
    Tice is CEO of an asset management group worth £500 million. He is a successful businessman, not just a Far Right ranter whatever else you may think of him and he does not need the money from being an MP if he was elected therefore.

    He has also shifted RefUK to be a largely libertarian, anti lockdown, low tax, small government party rather than just a vehicle against immigration post Brexit, making it more respectable for mainstream right voters to consider if they think Boris is too statist and authoritarian
  • HYUFD said:

    The danger of reading too much into the next election based upon what has happened in the past few elections is the small sample size makes things seem significant when they aren't. Classic xkcd applies.

    image

    There have been 5 occasions since universal suffrage in 1918 when a PM faced a general election after more than 10 years of his party in power (which is the key stat to look at rather than just how many times the Tories have won a majority of seats).

    Those were 1945, 1964, 1992, 1997 and 2010. It is hardly that small a sample size and in 4 out of 5 of them the PM lost and the one who won, Major in 1992 still lost 40 seats. If Boris lost 40 seats on current boundaries it would be a hung parliament in 2023/24
    Five is a tiny sample size.

    You could toss a balanced coin on five occasions and happen to get 4 heads and 1 tail. If you do, what are the odds that you get a head next time?
  • I recall there was a model which assumed that a long-term pendulum between the two main parties was at work, and so a parties result at the next election was reasonably well correlated to a combination of the most recent election, and anti-correlated to the election before - on the basis that the public takes a while to tire of governments, but they will, eventually.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 41,069
    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    This is why travel is rather screwed (and, oh, I wish it weren’t so)


    @OmicronNews

    Breaking: The Dutch #RIVM has confirmed 13 #Omicron cases out of the 61 positives. #coronavirus #Corona

    That’s 13 cases of OMICRON THE MIGHTY on just one flight to Europe. How many flights have come from Southern Africa to Europe, N America, Asia, in the last week or so? There must be a few thousand cases seeded worldwide

    If its anything like as infectious as the preliminary reports indicate it will be 90%+ of all cases everywhere within a month. At which point travel bans are completely superfluous.
    I know many people think travel bans are a slam dunk but I'm not sure they add much value unless backed up by a rigorous test, trace & isolate regime.
    It can buy you a little bit of time, probably no more than a couple of weeks. Whether that is worth doing is dependent upon whether you have a cunning plan of what to do with those 2 weeks. If you don't, its pointless.

    Our plan, such as it is, seems to be to give as many boosters as possible, double vax more school kids and pray that our hospitals empty out a bit more before they start filling up again. Every little helps, as the saying goes, but I am not seeing anything in that which is not very much at the margins.
  • HYUFD said:

    The danger of reading too much into the next election based upon what has happened in the past few elections is the small sample size makes things seem significant when they aren't. Classic xkcd applies.

    image

    There have been 5 occasions since universal suffrage in 1918 when a PM faced a general election after more than 10 years of his party in power (which is the key stat to look at rather than just how many times the Tories have won a majority of seats).

    Those were 1945, 1964, 1992, 1997 and 2010. It is hardly that small a sample size and in 4 out of 5 of them the PM lost and the one who won, Major in 1992 still lost 40 seats. If Boris lost 40 seats on current boundaries it would be a hung parliament in 2023/24
    That's all very reasonable, but it doesn't seem impossible that the huge changes to politics wrought by Brexit have the potential to create an exception. Johnson leads a very different Conservative party than Cameron.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284

    HYUFD said:

    The danger of reading too much into the next election based upon what has happened in the past few elections is the small sample size makes things seem significant when they aren't. Classic xkcd applies.

    image

    There have been 5 occasions since universal suffrage in 1918 when a PM faced a general election after more than 10 years of his party in power (which is the key stat to look at rather than just how many times the Tories have won a majority of seats).

    Those were 1945, 1964, 1992, 1997 and 2010. It is hardly that small a sample size and in 4 out of 5 of them the PM lost and the one who won, Major in 1992 still lost 40 seats. If Boris lost 40 seats on current boundaries it would be a hung parliament in 2023/24
    Five is a tiny sample size.

    You could toss a balanced coin on five occasions and happen to get 4 heads and 1 tail. If you do, what are the odds that you get a head next time?
    The evidence is 80% for change and 100% for loss of seats.

    In fact go to almost any western democracy and there is normally a change of government after one party has been in power after 10 years. That is just the natural electoral cycle, otherwise you are heading to a one party state if one party stays in power for decades
  • RobDRobD Posts: 56,656
    DavidL said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    This is why travel is rather screwed (and, oh, I wish it weren’t so)


    @OmicronNews

    Breaking: The Dutch #RIVM has confirmed 13 #Omicron cases out of the 61 positives. #coronavirus #Corona

    That’s 13 cases of OMICRON THE MIGHTY on just one flight to Europe. How many flights have come from Southern Africa to Europe, N America, Asia, in the last week or so? There must be a few thousand cases seeded worldwide

    If its anything like as infectious as the preliminary reports indicate it will be 90%+ of all cases everywhere within a month. At which point travel bans are completely superfluous.
    I know many people think travel bans are a slam dunk but I'm not sure they add much value unless backed up by a rigorous test, trace & isolate regime.
    It can buy you a little bit of time, probably no more than a couple of weeks. Whether that is worth doing is dependent upon whether you have a cunning plan of what to do with those 2 weeks. If you don't, its pointless.

    Our plan, such as it is, seems to be to give as many boosters as possible, double vax more school kids and pray that our hospitals empty out a bit more before they start filling up again. Every little helps, as the saying goes, but I am not seeing anything in that which is not very much at the margins.
    Isn't the plan simply to give out more shots? Time definitely helps there, it would be ~5million more.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    This is why travel is rather screwed (and, oh, I wish it weren’t so)

    @OmicronNews

    Breaking: The Dutch #RIVM has confirmed 13 #Omicron cases out of the 61 positives. #coronavirus #Corona

    That’s 13 cases of OMICRON THE MIGHTY on just one flight to Europe. How many flights have come from Southern Africa to Europe, N America, Asia, in the last week or so? There must be a few thousand cases seeded worldwide

    It depends how it impacts vaccinated populations. Does it put significantly more people in hospitals and morgues? If it doesn't, it's a blip not a gamechanger.
    No, its impact on the unvaxxed is just as important. Because if it really is 500% more transmissible than Delta, then no lockdown will stop it, and everyone will get it in short order

    Then the severity is crucial. Let’s say it’s as bad as Delta but no worse - a neutral position. That means many millions of deaths and horrible strain on health systems, in Europe and the USA (because of enough unvaxxed still) let alone the unvaxxed global south

    And that’s ignoring its potential to reinfect, mentioned specifically by WHO as one reason for calling it a Variant of Concern

    Of course it might - as per the nice Saffer GP lady - induce mild symptoms in almost all, which would be fucking brilliant, and I will stand rounds of champagne at the next PB meet. Seriously

    Let us hope and pray

    Is there much evidence for its severity?
    Some, but it is paltry and anecdotal

    One doctor in SA says she’s seeing more young people with severe disease, another lady doctor in SA says she’s seeing youngsters with much milder disease

    🤷‍♂️

    Hospitalisations are increasing in SA especially in Gauteng but that doesn’t tell us much about the severity. People could be in and out in two days

    Also this variant is just so new in most people. It takes time to get really sick from Covid. Those who are mild now might die in ten days

    We will know everything we need to know in a fortnight or so. It’s a bit like a pivotal battle in the middle of a huge war. Kursk, perhaps

    Or maybe this is the Ardennes invasion by a desperate virus on its last legs?
    The first of those was referring to unvaxxed patients. Is there any evidence that Omnicron is more virulent in the vaxxed?
    No you’re confusing two different SA lady doctors

    But yes, there is no hard evidence that Omicron is more or less nasty/virulent in the vaxxed. It is all speculation

    However we now have 13 Omicron cases in Holland all in one place. A nice little sub sample to watch. If none of them fall ill (let alone die) then that’s definitely good news. Of course we need to know their vax status too
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,660
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    This is why travel is rather screwed (and, oh, I wish it weren’t so)

    @OmicronNews

    Breaking: The Dutch #RIVM has confirmed 13 #Omicron cases out of the 61 positives. #coronavirus #Corona

    That’s 13 cases of OMICRON THE MIGHTY on just one flight to Europe. How many flights have come from Southern Africa to Europe, N America, Asia, in the last week or so? There must be a few thousand cases seeded worldwide

    It depends how it impacts vaccinated populations. Does it put significantly more people in hospitals and morgues? If it doesn't, it's a blip not a gamechanger.
    No, its impact on the unvaxxed is just as important. Because if it really is 500% more transmissible than Delta, then no lockdown will stop it, and everyone will get it in short order

    Then the severity is crucial. Let’s say it’s as bad as Delta but no worse - a neutral position. That means many millions of deaths and horrible strain on health systems, in Europe and the USA (because of enough unvaxxed still) let alone the unvaxxed global south

    And that’s ignoring its potential to reinfect, mentioned specifically by WHO as one reason for calling it a Variant of Concern

    Of course it might - as per the nice Saffer GP lady - induce mild symptoms in almost all, which would be fucking brilliant, and I will stand rounds of champagne at the next PB meet. Seriously

    Let us hope and pray
    What I mean by a 'vaccinated population' is a population - eg ours - that is heavily vaccinated. If Omicron hitting such a population wouldn't cause a jump in hospitalizations, we're broadly as we were. If it would, we're looking at an extension of the pandemic. This is how I see it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 41,069

    Just turned on Beatles documentary, is it really 8hrs of the same 30 mins of them tootling and ordering their lunch?

    You'll have to tell us, I'm afraid.
  • ydoethur said:

    pigeon said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    This is why travel is rather screwed (and, oh, I wish it weren’t so)

    @OmicronNews

    Breaking: The Dutch #RIVM has confirmed 13 #Omicron cases out of the 61 positives. #coronavirus #Corona

    That’s 13 cases of OMICRON THE MIGHTY on just one flight to Europe. How many flights have come from Southern Africa to Europe, N America, Asia, in the last week or so? There must be a few thousand cases seeded worldwide

    It depends how it impacts vaccinated populations. Does it put significantly more people in hospitals and morgues? If it doesn't, it's a blip not a gamechanger.
    Yes, the evidence so far is that Omicron is only bad news for the non double vaccinated in terms of potential hospitalisation and death, certainly that is true for the young.

    Even the older double vaccinated should be protected from it according to most scientists estimations once they have had their boosters which most over 70s now have had
    What it certainly does mean is that we need to get on with double vaxxing our younger people as a matter of urgency. Action this day as Boris's hero used to say.
    To come back to an earlier point I made - at what stage will the government consider compulsory vaccinations ? Can't be far off if this is as bad as some fear.
    They won't do it unless they're absolutely desperate. Can you imagine how much screaming there will be if they go down the route of punitive fines as in Austria, and it takes about five minutes for somebody to crunch the numbers and work out that they're being disproportionately inflicted upon black people with low incomes?
    Yes.

    But - how many of those vote Tory?

    Given a choice between kicking a lot of Labour voters and having his own voters suffer due to pressure on the NHS and restrictions on the wider population, given his extremely factional, even transactional approach I wouldn't go bail for Johnson holding out.
    The answer has always been no vaccination then no hospital treatment.
    Nope. That is callous and sets a horrific precedent for other life choices. The answer (if there has to be one) is to dis/incentivise through the tax system.
    Its callous to delay the non-covid medical treatment of others because hospitals are wasting their resources on anti-vaxxers.

    But I'd be quite happy to financially dis-incentivise anti-vaxxers firstly through their tax codes and secondly through charging them for any medical treatment they receive.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited November 2021
    DavidL said:

    Just turned on Beatles documentary, is it really 8hrs of the same 30 mins of them tootling and ordering their lunch?

    You'll have to tell us, I'm afraid.
    I am just about to give up, even though i only have it on as i work.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 1,617
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The danger of reading too much into the next election based upon what has happened in the past few elections is the small sample size makes things seem significant when they aren't. Classic xkcd applies.

    image

    There have been 5 occasions since universal suffrage in 1918 when a PM faced a general election after more than 10 years of his party in power (which is the key stat to look at rather than just how many times the Tories have won a majority of seats).

    Those were 1945, 1964, 1992, 1997 and 2010. It is hardly that small a sample size and in 4 out of 5 of them the PM lost and the one who won, Major in 1992 still lost 40 seats. If Boris lost 40 seats on current boundaries it would be a hung parliament in 2023/24
    Five is a tiny sample size.

    You could toss a balanced coin on five occasions and happen to get 4 heads and 1 tail. If you do, what are the odds that you get a head next time?
    The evidence is 80% for change and 100% for loss of seats.

    In fact go to almost any western democracy and there is normally a change of government after one party has been in power after 10 years. That is just the natural electoral cycle, otherwise you are heading to a one party state if one party stays in power for decades
    Depends on the circumstances. Look at Japan. Look at Scotland.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284

    HYUFD said:

    The danger of reading too much into the next election based upon what has happened in the past few elections is the small sample size makes things seem significant when they aren't. Classic xkcd applies.

    image

    There have been 5 occasions since universal suffrage in 1918 when a PM faced a general election after more than 10 years of his party in power (which is the key stat to look at rather than just how many times the Tories have won a majority of seats).

    Those were 1945, 1964, 1992, 1997 and 2010. It is hardly that small a sample size and in 4 out of 5 of them the PM lost and the one who won, Major in 1992 still lost 40 seats. If Boris lost 40 seats on current boundaries it would be a hung parliament in 2023/24
    That's all very reasonable, but it doesn't seem impossible that the huge changes to politics wrought by Brexit have the potential to create an exception. Johnson leads a very different Conservative party than Cameron.
    Which is why Boris will still likely win most seats as the Leave coalition is still largely united behind the Tories. It does not necessarily mean he will win enough seats to stay PM however, especially given Corbyn has gone more Tory Remain seats in the South will likely go LD as Starmer is less of a threat and there will be more LD tactical voting for Starmer too in Labour target seats than Corbyn got in 2019.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    edited November 2021
    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The danger of reading too much into the next election based upon what has happened in the past few elections is the small sample size makes things seem significant when they aren't. Classic xkcd applies.

    image

    There have been 5 occasions since universal suffrage in 1918 when a PM faced a general election after more than 10 years of his party in power (which is the key stat to look at rather than just how many times the Tories have won a majority of seats).

    Those were 1945, 1964, 1992, 1997 and 2010. It is hardly that small a sample size and in 4 out of 5 of them the PM lost and the one who won, Major in 1992 still lost 40 seats. If Boris lost 40 seats on current boundaries it would be a hung parliament in 2023/24
    Five is a tiny sample size.

    You could toss a balanced coin on five occasions and happen to get 4 heads and 1 tail. If you do, what are the odds that you get a head next time?
    The evidence is 80% for change and 100% for loss of seats.

    In fact go to almost any western democracy and there is normally a change of government after one party has been in power after 10 years. That is just the natural electoral cycle, otherwise you are heading to a one party state if one party stays in power for decades
    Depends on the circumstances. Look at Japan. Look at Scotland.
    We are not Japan which has almost always been run by one party.

    Even the SNP do not have a majority in Scotland at Holyrood and Scotland is still just a part of the UK anyway with a Tory UK government, not an independent country
  • TazTaz Posts: 3,114

    isam said:

    Nice bit of 'shop.


    I saw something with Laurence Fox in it for the first time the other day - He was playing Lord Palmerston in Victoria. I can see why people dislike him, thoroughly cocksure and smarmy
    I went through a period of trying to feel sorry for Lozza as there is something pitiful about him, but back to thinking he deserves all the pelters he gets.
    I'd not seen Richard Tice before that video from Bexley - have the far right found a post-Farage leader who is actually coherent and sane? (Though the obsession with boilers was a bit worrying.)
    Far Right ! Reform are hardly the EDL.
  • MaxPB said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    This is why travel is rather screwed (and, oh, I wish it weren’t so)

    @OmicronNews

    Breaking: The Dutch #RIVM has confirmed 13 #Omicron cases out of the 61 positives. #coronavirus #Corona

    That’s 13 cases of OMICRON THE MIGHTY on just one flight to Europe. How many flights have come from Southern Africa to Europe, N America, Asia, in the last week or so? There must be a few thousand cases seeded worldwide

    It depends how it impacts vaccinated populations. Does it put significantly more people in hospitals and morgues? If it doesn't, it's a blip not a gamechanger.
    That's true for countries like the UK or Israel which have very high levels of vaccine and natural immunity but a really big disaster for somewhere like Germany which has got reasonably good vaccine immunity but very low levels of natural immunity. I just had a look and ~89% of UK adults have had the vaccine plus a further 5-8% having natural immunity. In Germany that's about ~80% and 2-3% among adults. That leaves a huge, huge number of people that could very rapidly need hospital treatment.

    The LSHTM has done some really solid modeling on this recently, essentially looking into this scenario of a very, very highly transmissive variant that doesn't necessarily evade existing immunity. The UK could see 0.06% of the entire population require hospital treatment within a few weeks, that's 40k people and almost 3k people arriving in hospital everyday, vaccinated and unvaccinated. That's about the same as the highest rate we've ever had, it will lead to a reduction of healthcare provision across the nation for two to three months. Let's look at Germany in that model, the LSHTM say that 0.6% (10x the UK number) could turn up at hospitals in the same timeframe, that's 500k people potentially requiring hospital treatment within a two/three week timeframe. That could be 25k people per day showing up at hospital. I have no idea what that even looks like, my brain can't even compute the idea of it.

    Rudolph Steiner has a lot to answer for.
    What's the Rudolph Steiner bit about ?

    Wiki says he was an Austrian philosopher.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    MaxPB said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    This is why travel is rather screwed (and, oh, I wish it weren’t so)

    @OmicronNews

    Breaking: The Dutch #RIVM has confirmed 13 #Omicron cases out of the 61 positives. #coronavirus #Corona

    That’s 13 cases of OMICRON THE MIGHTY on just one flight to Europe. How many flights have come from Southern Africa to Europe, N America, Asia, in the last week or so? There must be a few thousand cases seeded worldwide

    It depends how it impacts vaccinated populations. Does it put significantly more people in hospitals and morgues? If it doesn't, it's a blip not a gamechanger.
    That's true for countries like the UK or Israel which have very high levels of vaccine and natural immunity but a really big disaster for somewhere like Germany which has got reasonably good vaccine immunity but very low levels of natural immunity. I just had a look and ~89% of UK adults have had the vaccine plus a further 5-8% having natural immunity. In Germany that's about ~80% and 2-3% among adults. That leaves a huge, huge number of people that could very rapidly need hospital treatment.

    The LSHTM has done some really solid modeling on this recently, essentially looking into this scenario of a very, very highly transmissive variant that doesn't necessarily evade existing immunity. The UK could see 0.06% of the entire population require hospital treatment within a few weeks, that's 40k people and almost 3k people arriving in hospital everyday, vaccinated and unvaccinated. That's about the same as the highest rate we've ever had, it will lead to a reduction of healthcare provision across the nation for two to three months. Let's look at Germany in that model, the LSHTM say that 0.6% (10x the UK number) could turn up at hospitals in the same timeframe, that's 500k people potentially requiring hospital treatment within a two/three week timeframe. That could be 25k people per day showing up at hospital. I have no idea what that even looks like, my brain can't even compute the idea of it.

    Rudolph Steiner has a lot to answer for.
    The big question there is: can OMICRON break thru natural immunity? Can it reinfect people who’ve had Alpha, Delta, etc?

    WHO thinks this is possible, which is not good for the UK, as we are relying on that wall of natural immunity built over the summer

    We shall soon see
  • TimSTimS Posts: 993
    Interesting that out of 61 positive patients off that plane only 13 had Omicron. It suggests Delta still has some mojo.

    Bear in mind SA had extremely low case numbers until a few weeks ago which would be good news for a new variant trying to make a name for itself. So if they are now rising rapidly, and a large proportion are Delta, then maybe the growth advantage Omicron has isn’t so big after all.

    As far as I can see there’s not much point panicking until we see vaccine efficacy stats against severe illness. If those hold up, then I think it’s as you were. If not then we need to get those repurposed jabs fast tracked.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited November 2021
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    This is why travel is rather screwed (and, oh, I wish it weren’t so)

    @OmicronNews

    Breaking: The Dutch #RIVM has confirmed 13 #Omicron cases out of the 61 positives. #coronavirus #Corona

    That’s 13 cases of OMICRON THE MIGHTY on just one flight to Europe. How many flights have come from Southern Africa to Europe, N America, Asia, in the last week or so? There must be a few thousand cases seeded worldwide

    It depends how it impacts vaccinated populations. Does it put significantly more people in hospitals and morgues? If it doesn't, it's a blip not a gamechanger.
    That's true for countries like the UK or Israel which have very high levels of vaccine and natural immunity but a really big disaster for somewhere like Germany which has got reasonably good vaccine immunity but very low levels of natural immunity. I just had a look and ~89% of UK adults have had the vaccine plus a further 5-8% having natural immunity. In Germany that's about ~80% and 2-3% among adults. That leaves a huge, huge number of people that could very rapidly need hospital treatment.

    The LSHTM has done some really solid modeling on this recently, essentially looking into this scenario of a very, very highly transmissive variant that doesn't necessarily evade existing immunity. The UK could see 0.06% of the entire population require hospital treatment within a few weeks, that's 40k people and almost 3k people arriving in hospital everyday, vaccinated and unvaccinated. That's about the same as the highest rate we've ever had, it will lead to a reduction of healthcare provision across the nation for two to three months. Let's look at Germany in that model, the LSHTM say that 0.6% (10x the UK number) could turn up at hospitals in the same timeframe, that's 500k people potentially requiring hospital treatment within a two/three week timeframe. That could be 25k people per day showing up at hospital. I have no idea what that even looks like, my brain can't even compute the idea of it.

    Rudolph Steiner has a lot to answer for.
    The big question there is: can OMICRON break thru natural immunity? Can it reinfect people who’ve had Alpha, Delta, etc?

    WHO thinks this is possible, which is not good for the UK, as we are relying on that wall of natural immunity built over the summer

    We shall soon see
    It then also depends if that reinfection leads to serious illness. At the moment, chance of reinfection is low and overwhelming isn't serious.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094
    edited November 2021

    MaxPB said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    This is why travel is rather screwed (and, oh, I wish it weren’t so)

    @OmicronNews

    Breaking: The Dutch #RIVM has confirmed 13 #Omicron cases out of the 61 positives. #coronavirus #Corona

    That’s 13 cases of OMICRON THE MIGHTY on just one flight to Europe. How many flights have come from Southern Africa to Europe, N America, Asia, in the last week or so? There must be a few thousand cases seeded worldwide

    It depends how it impacts vaccinated populations. Does it put significantly more people in hospitals and morgues? If it doesn't, it's a blip not a gamechanger.
    That's true for countries like the UK or Israel which have very high levels of vaccine and natural immunity but a really big disaster for somewhere like Germany which has got reasonably good vaccine immunity but very low levels of natural immunity. I just had a look and ~89% of UK adults have had the vaccine plus a further 5-8% having natural immunity. In Germany that's about ~80% and 2-3% among adults. That leaves a huge, huge number of people that could very rapidly need hospital treatment.

    The LSHTM has done some really solid modeling on this recently, essentially looking into this scenario of a very, very highly transmissive variant that doesn't necessarily evade existing immunity. The UK could see 0.06% of the entire population require hospital treatment within a few weeks, that's 40k people and almost 3k people arriving in hospital everyday, vaccinated and unvaccinated. That's about the same as the highest rate we've ever had, it will lead to a reduction of healthcare provision across the nation for two to three months. Let's look at Germany in that model, the LSHTM say that 0.6% (10x the UK number) could turn up at hospitals in the same timeframe, that's 500k people potentially requiring hospital treatment within a two/three week timeframe. That could be 25k people per day showing up at hospital. I have no idea what that even looks like, my brain can't even compute the idea of it.

    Rudolph Steiner has a lot to answer for.
    What's the Rudolph Steiner bit about ?

    Wiki says he was an Austrian philosopher.
    Steiner Schools. Anthroposophy (sp?).

    Weird Teutonic holistic educational philosophy obsessed with colours, stories and ancient sun-demons, with a dash of racism in the mix

    Not keen on orthodox mass medicine
  • TazTaz Posts: 3,114
    felix said:

    Taz said:

    dixiedean said:

    isam said:

    Nice bit of 'shop.


    I saw something with Laurence Fox in it for the first time the other day - He was playing Lord Palmerston in Victoria. I can see why people dislike him, thoroughly cocksure and smarmy
    Saw an episode of Lewis for the first time. He plays the uncharismatic half of a double act with Kevin Whately.
    I like him in Lewis, his character is the perfect foil to Lewis and he plays the role well.

    For too many - once an actor's politics are known - they are no longer good actors. Utterly mental - I mean Vanessa Redgrave's politics are crazy but what an actor she is....to poick just one.
    A perfect example and just look at James Dreyfus now. Cannot get work for being on the ‘wrong side’ of the trans debate. Was even airbrushed out of a range of sell through Dr Who audios. He’s a good actor but persona non grata now.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 939
    Lisa Nandy:

    Speaking to Sky News, Labour's shadow foreign secretary Lisa Nandy said it was "unconscionable" that France and the UK government were "engaging in a blame game while children drown off our coastline".

    She said her party would work with international partners to "open up safe and legal routes" for refugees in order "to pull the rug out from under the business model that these smugglers currently rely on".


    My biggest worry over Labour was them opening up the flood gates on immigration and now they confirm they're doing it. And if this is just the stuff they are saying out loud, imagine what else they will do in office. I really wanted to vote against Boris in the next election, but not at the cost of bad immigration decisions that will last decades.

  • TimSTimS Posts: 993
    Taz said:

    isam said:

    Nice bit of 'shop.


    I saw something with Laurence Fox in it for the first time the other day - He was playing Lord Palmerston in Victoria. I can see why people dislike him, thoroughly cocksure and smarmy
    I went through a period of trying to feel sorry for Lozza as there is something pitiful about him, but back to thinking he deserves all the pelters he gets.
    I'd not seen Richard Tice before that video from Bexley - have the far right found a post-Farage leader who is actually coherent and sane? (Though the obsession with boilers was a bit worrying.)
    Far Right ! Reform are hardly the EDL.
    They are the poujadiste right. From everything I can see of them, that’s the proper term.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poujade
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281

    kle4 said:

    isam said:

    Nice bit of 'shop.


    I saw something with Laurence Fox in it for the first time the other day - He was playing Lord Palmerston in Victoria. I can see why people dislike him, thoroughly cocksure and smarmy
    Weird, I'd seen that and not placed that it was him at all. I thought he was pretty good in it, though the character was a smarmy dick.
    Worth pointing out that quite a few of Palmerstons contemporaries thought he was cocksure and smarmy, so it might just be... acting.
    Yes, his acting seems an odd reason to take against him. He seems far too young to be playing Palmerston though.
    There is a fashion for casting people way too young, for historical roles.

    Compare and contrast with Glory, where casting Matthew Broderick was held to be wrong, because he looked too young. Despite being about the right age, looking like Col. Shaw *and* being a descendent of Shaw!
    Although. I watched the Untouchables recently.
    Elliot Ness and his crew were mostly in their 20's IRL.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited November 2021
    TimS said:

    Interesting that out of 61 positive patients off that plane only 13 had Omicron. It suggests Delta still has some mojo.

    Bear in mind SA had extremely low case numbers until a few weeks ago which would be good news for a new variant trying to make a name for itself. So if they are now rising rapidly, and a large proportion are Delta, then maybe the growth advantage Omicron has isn’t so big after all.

    As far as I can see there’s not much point panicking until we see vaccine efficacy stats against severe illness. If those hold up, then I think it’s as you were. If not then we need to get those repurposed jabs fast tracked.

    But Omicron is already 80% of new cases in SA in surveyed region.....it took delta months to reach that versus Kent variant in any sample.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 3,511
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    This is why travel is rather screwed (and, oh, I wish it weren’t so)

    @OmicronNews

    Breaking: The Dutch #RIVM has confirmed 13 #Omicron cases out of the 61 positives. #coronavirus #Corona

    That’s 13 cases of OMICRON THE MIGHTY on just one flight to Europe. How many flights have come from Southern Africa to Europe, N America, Asia, in the last week or so? There must be a few thousand cases seeded worldwide

    It depends how it impacts vaccinated populations. Does it put significantly more people in hospitals and morgues? If it doesn't, it's a blip not a gamechanger.
    That's true for countries like the UK or Israel which have very high levels of vaccine and natural immunity but a really big disaster for somewhere like Germany which has got reasonably good vaccine immunity but very low levels of natural immunity. I just had a look and ~89% of UK adults have had the vaccine plus a further 5-8% having natural immunity. In Germany that's about ~80% and 2-3% among adults. That leaves a huge, huge number of people that could very rapidly need hospital treatment.

    The LSHTM has done some really solid modeling on this recently, essentially looking into this scenario of a very, very highly transmissive variant that doesn't necessarily evade existing immunity. The UK could see 0.06% of the entire population require hospital treatment within a few weeks, that's 40k people and almost 3k people arriving in hospital everyday, vaccinated and unvaccinated. That's about the same as the highest rate we've ever had, it will lead to a reduction of healthcare provision across the nation for two to three months. Let's look at Germany in that model, the LSHTM say that 0.6% (10x the UK number) could turn up at hospitals in the same timeframe, that's 500k people potentially requiring hospital treatment within a two/three week timeframe. That could be 25k people per day showing up at hospital. I have no idea what that even looks like, my brain can't even compute the idea of it.

    Rudolph Steiner has a lot to answer for.
    The big question there is: can OMICRON break thru natural immunity? Can it reinfect people who’ve had Alpha, Delta, etc?

    WHO thinks this is possible, which is not good for the UK, as we are relying on that wall of natural immunity built over the summer

    We shall soon see
    For a chap who recognises, rightly, that the impact of Omicron is pure speculation at the moment, you ain't half doing a lot of speculating.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 41,069
    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    This is why travel is rather screwed (and, oh, I wish it weren’t so)


    @OmicronNews

    Breaking: The Dutch #RIVM has confirmed 13 #Omicron cases out of the 61 positives. #coronavirus #Corona

    That’s 13 cases of OMICRON THE MIGHTY on just one flight to Europe. How many flights have come from Southern Africa to Europe, N America, Asia, in the last week or so? There must be a few thousand cases seeded worldwide

    If its anything like as infectious as the preliminary reports indicate it will be 90%+ of all cases everywhere within a month. At which point travel bans are completely superfluous.
    I know many people think travel bans are a slam dunk but I'm not sure they add much value unless backed up by a rigorous test, trace & isolate regime.
    It can buy you a little bit of time, probably no more than a couple of weeks. Whether that is worth doing is dependent upon whether you have a cunning plan of what to do with those 2 weeks. If you don't, its pointless.

    Our plan, such as it is, seems to be to give as many boosters as possible, double vax more school kids and pray that our hospitals empty out a bit more before they start filling up again. Every little helps, as the saying goes, but I am not seeing anything in that which is not very much at the margins.
    Isn't the plan simply to give out more shots? Time definitely helps there, it would be ~5million more.
    Well, it works if the boosters improve your defences but even that is not clear for the new variant yet. Of course if it would be better to tweak the boosters giving out so many of the old ones may prove to be a mistake.
  • TimS said:

    Interesting that out of 61 positive patients off that plane only 13 had Omicron. It suggests Delta still has some mojo.

    Bear in mind SA had extremely low case numbers until a few weeks ago which would be good news for a new variant trying to make a name for itself. So if they are now rising rapidly, and a large proportion are Delta, then maybe the growth advantage Omicron has isn’t so big after all.

    As far as I can see there’s not much point panicking until we see vaccine efficacy stats against severe illness. If those hold up, then I think it’s as you were. If not then we need to get those repurposed jabs fast tracked.

    How many were on that plane ?

    Because whatever it was 61 would be a far higher proportion than what South Africa as a whole is supposed to currently have.
  • TimS said:

    Interesting that out of 61 positive patients off that plane only 13 had Omicron. It suggests Delta still has some mojo.

    Bear in mind SA had extremely low case numbers until a few weeks ago which would be good news for a new variant trying to make a name for itself. So if they are now rising rapidly, and a large proportion are Delta, then maybe the growth advantage Omicron has isn’t so big after all.

    As far as I can see there’s not much point panicking until we see vaccine efficacy stats against severe illness. If those hold up, then I think it’s as you were. If not then we need to get those repurposed jabs fast tracked.

    How many were on that plane ?

    Because whatever it was 61 would be a far higher proportion than what South Africa as a whole is supposed to currently have.
    Its 61 from 600 sample.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 15,094

    TimS said:

    Interesting that out of 61 positive patients off that plane only 13 had Omicron. It suggests Delta still has some mojo.

    Bear in mind SA had extremely low case numbers until a few weeks ago which would be good news for a new variant trying to make a name for itself. So if they are now rising rapidly, and a large proportion are Delta, then maybe the growth advantage Omicron has isn’t so big after all.

    As far as I can see there’s not much point panicking until we see vaccine efficacy stats against severe illness. If those hold up, then I think it’s as you were. If not then we need to get those repurposed jabs fast tracked.

    But Omicron is already 80% of new cases in SA in surveyed region.....it took delta months to reach that versus Kent variant in any sample.
    It’s also basically mindboggling that a quarter of a plane of SA passengers all had Covid of some flavour. Suggests it is way more prevalent there than their stats assert
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 1,617

    ydoethur said:

    pigeon said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    This is why travel is rather screwed (and, oh, I wish it weren’t so)

    @OmicronNews

    Breaking: The Dutch #RIVM has confirmed 13 #Omicron cases out of the 61 positives. #coronavirus #Corona

    That’s 13 cases of OMICRON THE MIGHTY on just one flight to Europe. How many flights have come from Southern Africa to Europe, N America, Asia, in the last week or so? There must be a few thousand cases seeded worldwide

    It depends how it impacts vaccinated populations. Does it put significantly more people in hospitals and morgues? If it doesn't, it's a blip not a gamechanger.
    Yes, the evidence so far is that Omicron is only bad news for the non double vaccinated in terms of potential hospitalisation and death, certainly that is true for the young.

    Even the older double vaccinated should be protected from it according to most scientists estimations once they have had their boosters which most over 70s now have had
    What it certainly does mean is that we need to get on with double vaxxing our younger people as a matter of urgency. Action this day as Boris's hero used to say.
    To come back to an earlier point I made - at what stage will the government consider compulsory vaccinations ? Can't be far off if this is as bad as some fear.
    They won't do it unless they're absolutely desperate. Can you imagine how much screaming there will be if they go down the route of punitive fines as in Austria, and it takes about five minutes for somebody to crunch the numbers and work out that they're being disproportionately inflicted upon black people with low incomes?
    Yes.

    But - how many of those vote Tory?

    Given a choice between kicking a lot of Labour voters and having his own voters suffer due to pressure on the NHS and restrictions on the wider population, given his extremely factional, even transactional approach I wouldn't go bail for Johnson holding out.
    The answer has always been no vaccination then no hospital treatment.
    Nope. That is callous and sets a horrific precedent for other life choices. The answer (if there has to be one) is to dis/incentivise through the tax system.
    Although that much said, such horrific choices have already been made in the opposite sense. I read only yesterday that the Dutch have been denying cancer patients their chemotherapy appointments to free up space to care for Covid victims - the greater number of whom, as in this country, will be those unvaccinated by choice. Similar healthcare decisions are made in all heavily affected countries. Gasping anti-vaxxers are prioritised over people sick with everything else - those in urgent need of timely treatment, as well as elective (but nonetheless important to the recipient) surgeries and therapies.

    It's small wonder that there's so little patience left with people who dig their heels in and won't accept Covid jabs. If your malignant tumour was left to grow and metastasise for another two months because the hospital ICU was crammed with gaspers in self-inflicted distress, and their survival was being prioritised over yours, you wouldn't be very sympathetic to them either.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 26,660
    MaxPB said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    This is why travel is rather screwed (and, oh, I wish it weren’t so)

    @OmicronNews

    Breaking: The Dutch #RIVM has confirmed 13 #Omicron cases out of the 61 positives. #coronavirus #Corona

    That’s 13 cases of OMICRON THE MIGHTY on just one flight to Europe. How many flights have come from Southern Africa to Europe, N America, Asia, in the last week or so? There must be a few thousand cases seeded worldwide

    It depends how it impacts vaccinated populations. Does it put significantly more people in hospitals and morgues? If it doesn't, it's a blip not a gamechanger.
    That's true for countries like the UK or Israel which have very high levels of vaccine and natural immunity but a really big disaster for somewhere like Germany which has got reasonably good vaccine immunity but very low levels of natural immunity. I just had a look and ~89% of UK adults have had the vaccine plus a further 5-8% having natural immunity. In Germany that's about ~80% and 2-3% among adults. That leaves a huge, huge number of people that could very rapidly need hospital treatment.

    The LSHTM has done some really solid modeling on this recently, essentially looking into this scenario of a very, very highly transmissive variant that doesn't necessarily evade existing immunity. The UK could see 0.06% of the entire population require hospital treatment within a few weeks, that's 40k people and almost 3k people arriving in hospital everyday, vaccinated and unvaccinated. That's about the same as the highest rate we've ever had, it will lead to a reduction of healthcare provision across the nation for two to three months. Let's look at Germany in that model, the LSHTM say that 0.6% (10x the UK number) could turn up at hospitals in the same timeframe, that's 500k people potentially requiring hospital treatment within a two/three week timeframe. That could be 25k people per day showing up at hospital. I have no idea what that even looks like, my brain can't even compute the idea of it.

    Rudolph Steiner has a lot to answer for.
    Yes, they already have a bigger challenge than us with 'exit wave Delta', don't they, because of that, and Omicron has the potential to accentuate the differential.
This discussion has been closed.