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North Shropshire isn’t Tatton, nor Chesham & Amersham – politicalbetting.com
North Shropshire isn’t Tatton, nor Chesham & Amersham – politicalbetting.com
If Owen Paterson had just accepted the suspension he’d almost be returning to the Commons by now. Instead, the attempt to save him from a recall petition has led to the largest stumble since Boris Johnson took office, weeks of critical headlines, and Paterson’s resignation anyway.
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B&R the LD were a clear second and Labour's vote was decaying away, much of it peeling off to them. Here, they're in third.
B&R is a seat that delights in doing the opposite of what's expected. North Shropshire has conformed to a pattern for decades.
The LD held B&R until 2015 and held the seat at Senedd level until 2020. The last time Oswestry/North Shropshire voted other than Tory was a by-election in 1904, by a whisker in a result that was reversed even in the rout of 1906 that reduced the Unionists to a mere 157 MPs.
The two are simply not comparable.
N Shropshire isn't.
Thanks for the useful header but...
I'm sticking my neck out and predicting a Liberal win in Shropshire.
One of the all time great by-elections with utterly unpredictable political implications. No Tory MP will feel secure anywhere.
The Conservatives have a good candidate to replace Paterson, it is a strong Leave area and the LDs are challenging from 3rd in 2019 so would be doing well to overtake Labour, let alone win. The highest the Liberals have ever got in North Shropshire before was 31% in 1983.
Just a feeling in my waters.
Out there something is stirring.
I fear you are not.
Win £20
Hope that the pleasure you get from seeing the Tories lose a safe seat is worth more than £50
Sounds like a decent bet.
Night all.
Generally the Midlands has been pretty poor territory for the LDs - what is the nearest Lib Dem seat to oswestry? OXWAB?
Not only the situation with Ukraine
but also this
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2021/nov/19/us-threatens-military-response-china-south-china-s/?utm_campaign=shareaholic&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=socialnetwork
“The United States stands with our Philippine allies in upholding the rules-based international maritime order and reaffirms that an armed attack on Philippine public vessels in the South China Sea would invoke U.S. mutual defense commitments under Article IV of the 1951 U.S. Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty,” the statement said. “The United States strongly believes that [China‘s] actions asserting its expansive and unlawful South China Sea maritime claims undermine peace and security in the region.”
Just wondering if I need to stock up on baked beans :-)
Con - 60.6%
LD - 24%
Majority just shy of 20k
https://twitter.com/alanvibe/status/1461809955648987136
Unless those who stand ready to take the crown decide it is better to stay the hand and let the current king take the shit.
Has the Netherlands re-imposesed a full lockdown? or just tweaked the restrictions for the unvaccinated?
p.s. I do like the chap pushing a bicycle thought in the middle, very Dutch.
Other than that all the LD seats are in London, the South and Scotland which North Shropshire is not part of.
Culturally North Shopshire is not the seat for a LD gain, indeed not only is it strong Leave unlike Chesham and Amersham it has even fewer graduates than Old Bexley and Sidcup
Once ministers impose these measures, previous experience shows that they find it very hard to let go of them, because of the rising case numbers and the panicked screaming from the boffins that follows as soon as they do so. The only thing that brings relief is warm weather: a lot of people in the countries that are finding themselves back in yet another cycle of lockdowns are probably terrified that they're going to be stuck in them for six months.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-59357306
KISS.
But there is a worrying side to this as well. It seems the phone app communicates with servers (I guess..), and therefore it would be easy for a malicious actor to stop that communication working, denying your usage of the car. Or for Tesla themselves to 'decide' that you shouldn't be able to use your car.
Normal car keys, please. None of this Internet of Tat rubbish.
Right now everything is cloud connected, so if I want to use Alexa to turn the lights on, it only works if my DSL circuits are up.
In future they will be able to use local WiFi to talk to each other.
What a concept...
Which would make it a very Good Morning, and while I suppose it might happen I really don't see it.
The app is also good for preheating (or cooling) the car and checking charge level remotely. On balance it offers more functions that customers like.
The extra complexity makes them overall less secure; and worse, as has just happened, any failure in the long and complex chain can make your can unusable.
And mobile phones can be lost as well...
I do feel a bit better this morning after a relatively good night. Adjusting for my wife's tendency to be more stoical than me I suspect she now has it worse. I'm going to go and make her a cup of tea.
Boris Johnson has ordered a cross-Whitehall review into the migrant crisis after being “exasperated” by his government’s failure to stem the numbers.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-demands-channel-migrant-fix-9mvrnrbfm
If you are doing so, then it's clear, that for Mr & Mrs OLB, This Thing Will Pass!
Best of!
Like pretty much every development in vehicle tech in the last ten years, its a really stupid idea. As is having vehicles connected to the Internet full stop - there is no way on earth I'm ever going to have a vehicle with an Internet connection to it's software - it's just far too dangerous for everything from hacking/theft to the government using it to curtail civil liberties.
Shortly after I learnt to drive, my mum had a little blue Ford Fiesta (*). I drove it to the cinema once, and when I came out I went to a blue Fiesta and unclocked it. It wasn't my mum's. In addition, my Land Rover key would not unlock another car we had, but would start the ignition...
Cars have thankfully got a little more secure.
(*) Written off when she was stopping for a roundabout on a dual carriageway, and a lorry didn't stop. Fortunately it didn't go over her car, but she did end up flying over the roundabout. Very lucky to just get bad whiplash ...
At some point the way people voted in 2016 will stop being a factor in how they vote in current elections. With Brexit now done and the threat of stopping it or even rejoining dead and buried, I am suggesting that time is now.
But in this case, it’s less about that than trying to identify what possible attack lines a rival party would have (of which Leave/Remain might be one).
And the answer we keep coming back to is - none at all.
I think the only possible trump the LDs have here is that their candidate is local and the Tory one isn’t.
Most of our leaders are from a slice of the population who just have to say "make it so" and it will be so. The successful campaigns of 2016 and 2019 were all about the idea that the reason things weren't right in the UK was a lack of wanting, a lack of people saying "make it so" and rotten foreigners blocking our way to our rightful place at the top.
It's an appealing theory, and it's understandable that people voted for it.
Unfortunately, as the difficulty of stopping the tiny boats shows, wanting isn't anything like enough.
I do agree that the candidate will help. HYUFD says the Tories have an excellent candidate, but they've had to parachute him in from Brum and he's already gone public saying he hasn't a clue about the constituency...
I very much doubt if that story will gain traction here. It's more likely to be a factor in OBS.
Perhaps Boris might want to look into the police and into Border Force and into the huge cuts made to their budgets by successive Tory governments...
Shropshire is a chimera of a county. The South is culturally and scenically an extension of Herefordshire and Radnorshire, quite graduate-heavy, good food and drink, and sharing a family likeness to the West Country. The flat North is completely different: still pretty, but post industrial closer in vibe to the West Midlands and Staffordshire. It feels like an easy Tory hold like Bexley does.
North Shropshire = Crawford/Porter.
Plenty of what ifs, it's politics/boxing anything could happen but at the end of the day it's not really possible to see beyond the favourite.
https://twitter.com/beardedjourno/status/1461692937201500161
Where does the hard left find these utter morons like Sultana?
To use one of the phrases of the moment, there may too be some buyers remorse over Brexit particularly over farming issues. As in Bexley, I expect Con hold with a reduced vote share.
My tip of the day is Chelsea to win at 1.83 on Betfair and Smarkets. Our defence is shambolic, while Chelseas is rock solid and we are missing Tielemans our player of the season. We beat them in the FA Cup final, but the teams have gone in opposite directions since. Leicester always do badly with the early kick off on Saturday. The handicap markets are good too.
F1: nice to have a weekend when things are on at the normal time, without a sprint race.
As an aside, but for the sprint race I reckon Verstappen would've extended his advantage by probably 10 and at least 3 points. Title would almost certainly be his.
https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1461411552788205568
And yet hundreds of customers have been locked out of their cars due to an Internet of Tat failure.
And why the holy f**k is the app having to talk to t'Internet to unlock or drive the car?
Mrs J creates chips that, amongst other things, get used in IoT. We get (most of) the tech. However, we both believe that the tech is being stupidly and inappropriately applied just so companies can put 'Internet Enabled!' on their boxes.
Admittedly I might have asked her to withdraw it on the grounds that called Grant Shapps 'dodgy' is something of an understatement, but surely 'inept,' 'dubious,' 'duplicitous,' 'lazy' and 'pig ignorant' would all have fitted the bill?
But then, she never was exactly with it.
Presumably the other million all had their car key with them.
But I will see what I find.
14:25 Haydock - Flight Deck [Old Bony]
14:40 Ascot - Song for Someone [nb]
Thats 2 for this Saturday. Sorry it’s not sooner I was gone shopping.
But I fully respect Eek and the many others like Ydoethur who do know what he is talking about questioning the practicalities of these rail plans and promises.
That’s the key bit. Where Grannt Shapps and Boris say we are “delivering” such and such reduced times etc , it is no, you are only “promising” such and such reduced times. With many experts saying it’s fantastical pie in the sky promises. Technicalities and difficulties here and there which can be very diverse questions (if you excuse the pun) line by line.
That definition between delivering this plan and promising a pie in the sky plan is key, because many experts do finish off by saying if government do deliver these promises it’s not such a bad plan On paper. Experts just don’t believe it will be delivered or even with best effort in the world can be delivered, and think it’s been over spun. Now the dust has settled, that’s where we are isn’t it?
https://vm.tiktok.com/ZM8p638YK/
But in a sense, that's not the point. What's being done here is the attempt at cancelling a major infrastructure upgrade. When you do that, you put forward alternatives, which are complex and piecemeal and can be jettisoned one at a time later. Which is what will happen here unless HS2 is built in full. Which it may well still be.
I’m more or less over the after effects, having been back at work for a week. Economical with the probity ?
I don't really see why you *wouldn't* want to be able to do that - a net-connected kettle would also be handy. If you want a cup of tea when you get up, I think you obviously want to start boiling the kettle before you get out of bed. It's not just a matter of being lazy, it's also a time-saver. I suppose someone could hack it, but the worst thing that would happen would be that my house would get heated when I didn't want it to, which doesn't sound catastrophic.
Basically anything electronic should be operable from your phone, unless there's a security reason not to do it. (Cameras are a case where there actually *is* a good security reason not to...)
Also, the worst that can happen is hackers utilising the tiny processing power of thousands of IoT devices and using that to break into banks or create DDOS attacks to bring down major online infrastructure.
Edited extra bit: or, in your bath situation, they could run it and see whether sufficient water damage can be caused to ruin your home.
It's funny 'cos it's true.
Unlike BoJo's HS2 promises.
You can't ruin my home by overflowing the bath because it has advanced Japanese overflow hole technology which sends the water down the drain if the level gets too high using gravity, and even if they somehow managed emit a tone that called all the spiders in the house and persuaded them to block the hole, all you'd do would be to put water on same tiled floor and down the same drain that I use when operating my shower normally.
What a currant bun. If I was her leader I would ban her right away!
https://www.talkingpoliticspodcast.com/blog/2019/144-the-nightmare-of-surveillance-capitalism
Zuboff describes how this is fundamentally altering human nature. People are becoming addicted to and dependent on technology in ways that are completely unnecessary, to serve the interests of commerce. I've seen this over and over again, and it is just all really sad.
(OK, so she wasn't actually an MP at the time.)