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North Shropshire isn’t Tatton, nor Chesham & Amersham – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited November 19 in General
imageNorth Shropshire isn’t Tatton, nor Chesham & Amersham – politicalbetting.com

If Owen Paterson had just accepted the suspension he’d almost be returning to the Commons by now. Instead, the attempt to save him from a recall petition has led to the largest stumble since Boris Johnson took office, weeks of critical headlines, and Paterson’s resignation anyway.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,899
    First, like the Tories in North Shropshire. Sadly.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,827
    tHIRST.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,854
    Wasn't Brecon & Radnor a Leave seat that went to the LDs in a by-election?
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,791
    Andy_JS said:

    Wasn't Brecon & Radnor a Leave seat that went to the LDs in a by-election?

    Yes, and I'm not saying the LDs can never win a Leave seat. But it is tougher for them, and B&R was a seat the party had held often from 1997-2017 and they won on a 12% swing - less than half what they'd need in North Shropshire.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,454
    Looks credible to me (as Quincel usually is!)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,228
    Quincel said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Wasn't Brecon & Radnor a Leave seat that went to the LDs in a by-election?

    Yes, and I'm not saying the LDs can never win a Leave seat. But it is tougher for them, and B&R was a seat the party had held often from 1997-2017 and they won on a 12% swing - less than half what they'd need in North Shropshire.
    Brecon and Radnor the candidate convicted of expenses fraud was also standing again. Paterson isn't.

    B&R the LD were a clear second and Labour's vote was decaying away, much of it peeling off to them. Here, they're in third.

    B&R is a seat that delights in doing the opposite of what's expected. North Shropshire has conformed to a pattern for decades.

    The LD held B&R until 2015 and held the seat at Senedd level until 2020. The last time Oswestry/North Shropshire voted other than Tory was a by-election in 1904, by a whisker in a result that was reversed even in the rout of 1906 that reduced the Unionists to a mere 157 MPs.

    The two are simply not comparable.
  • eekeek Posts: 15,853
    edited November 19
    I know it’s covering old ground now but people may like this (it’s an actually funny cartoon).

    image
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,500
    Would add education levels. C+A was heaving to the brim with graduates.
    N Shropshire isn't.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,791
    dixiedean said:

    Would add education levels. C+A was heaving to the brim with graduates.
    N Shropshire isn't.

    That's a very good point, and one I missed in the write-up.
    ydoethur said:

    Quincel said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Wasn't Brecon & Radnor a Leave seat that went to the LDs in a by-election?

    Yes, and I'm not saying the LDs can never win a Leave seat. But it is tougher for them, and B&R was a seat the party had held often from 1997-2017 and they won on a 12% swing - less than half what they'd need in North Shropshire.
    Brecon and Radnor the candidate convicted of expenses fraud was also standing again. Paterson isn't.

    B&R the LD were a clear second and Labour's vote was decaying away, much of it peeling off to them. Here, they're in third.

    B&R is a seat that delights in doing the opposite of what's expected. North Shropshire has conformed to a pattern for decades.

    The LD held B&R until 2015 and held the seat at Senedd level until 2020. The last time Oswestry/North Shropshire voted other than Tory was a by-election in 1904, by a whisker in a result that was reversed even in the rout of 1906 that reduced the Unionists to a mere 157 MPs.

    The two are simply not comparable.
    What he said. But better than I said it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,632

    Thanks for the useful header but...

    I'm sticking my neck out and predicting a Liberal win in Shropshire.

  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,307


    Thanks for the useful header but...

    I'm sticking my neck out and predicting a Liberal win in Shropshire.

    One of the things that emboldened me to put money on CON here was the fact that nobody has actually come out and been bold enough to predict anything else. It's all been "oh well it's possible maybe". So well done you for saying it.

    But you're wrong :wink:
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,500


    Thanks for the useful header but...

    I'm sticking my neck out and predicting a Liberal win in Shropshire.

    Should that come to pass, it would be truly seismic.
    One of the all time great by-elections with utterly unpredictable political implications. No Tory MP will feel secure anywhere.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,516
    edited November 19
    Shropshire North should be a Tory hold with a reduced majority.

    The Conservatives have a good candidate to replace Paterson, it is a strong Leave area and the LDs are challenging from 3rd in 2019 so would be doing well to overtake Labour, let alone win. The highest the Liberals have ever got in North Shropshire before was 31% in 1983.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,632
    dixiedean said:


    Thanks for the useful header but...

    I'm sticking my neck out and predicting a Liberal win in Shropshire.

    Should that come to pass, it would be truly seismic.
    One of the all time great by-elections with utterly unpredictable political implications. No Tory MP will feel secure anywhere.
    No logic.

    Just a feeling in my waters.

    Out there something is stirring.

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,500

    dixiedean said:


    Thanks for the useful header but...

    I'm sticking my neck out and predicting a Liberal win in Shropshire.

    Should that come to pass, it would be truly seismic.
    One of the all time great by-elections with utterly unpredictable political implications. No Tory MP will feel secure anywhere.
    No logic.

    Just a feeling in my waters.

    Out there something is stirring.

    I hope you are correct.
    I fear you are not.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,348
    So, betting £50 on the double, you either:

    Win £20

    Hope that the pleasure you get from seeing the Tories lose a safe seat is worth more than £50

    Sounds like a decent bet.

    Night all.
  • Agreed that it doesn't seem fertile ground for the LDs.

    Generally the Midlands has been pretty poor territory for the LDs - what is the nearest Lib Dem seat to oswestry? OXWAB?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,228

    dixiedean said:


    Thanks for the useful header but...

    I'm sticking my neck out and predicting a Liberal win in Shropshire.

    Should that come to pass, it would be truly seismic.
    One of the all time great by-elections with utterly unpredictable political implications. No Tory MP will feel secure anywhere.
    No logic.

    Just a feeling in my waters.

    Out there something is stirring.

    Then double up with a Johnson exit in 2021. He wouldn't survive the loss of a seat held with huge majorities for 116 years.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,854
    edited November 19
    Apparently WHO head Dr Tedros has said there's "no point in giving booster jabs to healthy adults."
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,228

    Agreed that it doesn't seem fertile ground for the LDs.

    Generally the Midlands has been pretty poor territory for the LDs - what is the nearest Lib Dem seat to oswestry? OXWAB?

    Yes, then Bath - 91 miles to 145.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Is Mike going on holiday soon?

    Not only the situation with Ukraine

    but also this

    https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2021/nov/19/us-threatens-military-response-china-south-china-s/?utm_campaign=shareaholic&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=socialnetwork

    “The United States stands with our Philippine allies in upholding the rules-based international maritime order and reaffirms that an armed attack on Philippine public vessels in the South China Sea would invoke U.S. mutual defense commitments under Article IV of the 1951 U.S. Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty,” the statement said. “The United States strongly believes that [China‘s] actions asserting its expansive and unlawful South China Sea maritime claims undermine peace and security in the region.”

    Just wondering if I need to stock up on baked beans :-)
  • Just to follow up on my last post - had a look at the list of LD targets for 2024 and you have to go to seat number 80 before you get to one in the Midlands. Their best target is Stratford-on-Avon:

    Con - 60.6%
    LD - 24%

    Majority just shy of 20k

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,632
    Crazy scenes in Holland. Let us hope the CMO, Javid and Johnson have got this right.

    https://twitter.com/alanvibe/status/1461809955648987136
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,137
    ydoethur said:

    Agreed that it doesn't seem fertile ground for the LDs.

    Generally the Midlands has been pretty poor territory for the LDs - what is the nearest Lib Dem seat to oswestry? OXWAB?

    Yes, then Bath - 91 miles to 145.
    What about Westmoreland and Lonsdale?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,500

    ydoethur said:

    Agreed that it doesn't seem fertile ground for the LDs.

    Generally the Midlands has been pretty poor territory for the LDs - what is the nearest Lib Dem seat to oswestry? OXWAB?

    Yes, then Bath - 91 miles to 145.
    What about Westmoreland and Lonsdale?
    Good shout. 124 miles Oswestry to Kendal.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 3,701
    Re North Shropshire, I didn’t really see anything from the council by-elections suggesting the Tories are in free fall, apart from that win Nick highlighted where the non-Tory parties stood aside to let the Greens stand. This just feels like a Tory hold.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,632
    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:


    Thanks for the useful header but...

    I'm sticking my neck out and predicting a Liberal win in Shropshire.

    Should that come to pass, it would be truly seismic.
    One of the all time great by-elections with utterly unpredictable political implications. No Tory MP will feel secure anywhere.
    No logic.

    Just a feeling in my waters.

    Out there something is stirring.

    Then double up with a Johnson exit in 2021. He wouldn't survive the loss of a seat held with huge majorities for 116 years.
    Good point.

    Unless those who stand ready to take the crown decide it is better to stay the hand and let the current king take the shit.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 2,430

    Crazy scenes in Holland. Let us hope the CMO, Javid and Johnson have got this right.

    https://twitter.com/alanvibe/status/1461809955648987136

    Gosh!

    Has the Netherlands re-imposesed a full lockdown? or just tweaked the restrictions for the unvaccinated?

    p.s. I do like the chap pushing a bicycle thought in the middle, very Dutch.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,516
    edited November 19

    ydoethur said:

    Agreed that it doesn't seem fertile ground for the LDs.

    Generally the Midlands has been pretty poor territory for the LDs - what is the nearest Lib Dem seat to oswestry? OXWAB?

    Yes, then Bath - 91 miles to 145.
    What about Westmoreland and Lonsdale?
    Westmoreland and Lonsdale is the only LD seat in the North, the Midlands and Wales now.

    Other than that all the LD seats are in London, the South and Scotland which North Shropshire is not part of.

    Culturally North Shopshire is not the seat for a LD gain, indeed not only is it strong Leave unlike Chesham and Amersham it has even fewer graduates than Old Bexley and Sidcup
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,854
    edited November 19

    Agreed that it doesn't seem fertile ground for the LDs.

    Generally the Midlands has been pretty poor territory for the LDs - what is the nearest Lib Dem seat to oswestry? OXWAB?

    It's not far from places like Ludlow, Leominster and Congleton where the LDs have done well in the past, (ignoring the neighbouring Welsh seats which used to be LD).
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,791

    ydoethur said:

    Agreed that it doesn't seem fertile ground for the LDs.

    Generally the Midlands has been pretty poor territory for the LDs - what is the nearest Lib Dem seat to oswestry? OXWAB?

    Yes, then Bath - 91 miles to 145.
    What about Westmoreland and Lonsdale?
    Not in the Midlands, it's in the Lake District north of Manchester.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 905
    BigRich said:

    Crazy scenes in Holland. Let us hope the CMO, Javid and Johnson have got this right.

    https://twitter.com/alanvibe/status/1461809955648987136

    Gosh!

    Has the Netherlands re-imposesed a full lockdown? or just tweaked the restrictions for the unvaccinated?

    p.s. I do like the chap pushing a bicycle thought in the middle, very Dutch.
    Woke up this morning to see the rioting in Rotterdam on the news. It appears to be a reaction to what is described as a "partial lockdown" that has been imposed on the whole population, allegedly for three weeks - although we all know what happened over here last year, where the Government tried to deploy one of these useless "circuit breakers" in November, lifted it again, and finally ended up imprisoning everybody from Christmas to Easter.

    Once ministers impose these measures, previous experience shows that they find it very hard to let go of them, because of the rising case numbers and the panicked screaming from the boffins that follows as soon as they do so. The only thing that brings relief is warm weather: a lot of people in the countries that are finding themselves back in yet another cycle of lockdowns are probably terrified that they're going to be stuck in them for six months.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 26,222
    So... Tesla's keyless system is a bit idiotic.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-59357306

    KISS.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 941
    pigeon said:

    BigRich said:

    Crazy scenes in Holland. Let us hope the CMO, Javid and Johnson have got this right.

    https://twitter.com/alanvibe/status/1461809955648987136

    Gosh!

    Has the Netherlands re-imposesed a full lockdown? or just tweaked the restrictions for the unvaccinated?

    p.s. I do like the chap pushing a bicycle thought in the middle, very Dutch.
    Woke up this morning to see the rioting in Rotterdam on the news. It appears to be a reaction to what is described as a "partial lockdown" that has been imposed on the whole population, allegedly for three weeks - although we all know what happened over here last year, where the Government tried to deploy one of these useless "circuit breakers" in November, lifted it again, and finally ended up imprisoning everybody from Christmas to Easter.

    Once ministers impose these measures, previous experience shows that they find it very hard to let go of them, because of the rising case numbers and the panicked screaming from the boffins that follows as soon as they do so. The only thing that brings relief is warm weather: a lot of people in the countries that are finding themselves back in yet another cycle of lockdowns are probably terrified that they're going to be stuck in them for six months.
    My gut instinct is that we are not very far behind, although this isn't reflected in the data as yet. Its a good time to get stuff done before the next lockdown.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 941

    So... Tesla's keyless system is a bit idiotic.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-59357306

    KISS.

    Don't have this problem with a Dacia Sandero
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 26,222
    darkage said:

    So... Tesla's keyless system is a bit idiotic.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-59357306

    KISS.

    Don't have this problem with a Dacia Sandero
    Never heard of it. ;)

    But there is a worrying side to this as well. It seems the phone app communicates with servers (I guess..), and therefore it would be easy for a malicious actor to stop that communication working, denying your usage of the car. Or for Tesla themselves to 'decide' that you shouldn't be able to use your car.

    Normal car keys, please. None of this Internet of Tat rubbish. ;)
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,501

    But there is a worrying side to this as well. It seems the phone app communicates with servers (I guess..), and therefore it would be easy for a malicious actor to stop that communication working, denying your usage of the car. Or for Tesla themselves to 'decide' that you shouldn't be able to use your car.

    Normal car keys, please. None of this Internet of Tat rubbish. ;)

    I got an email from one of my "smarthome" vendors recently advising me of a great new feature.

    Right now everything is cloud connected, so if I want to use Alexa to turn the lights on, it only works if my DSL circuits are up.

    In future they will be able to use local WiFi to talk to each other.

    What a concept...
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,236
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Agreed that it doesn't seem fertile ground for the LDs.

    Generally the Midlands has been pretty poor territory for the LDs - what is the nearest Lib Dem seat to oswestry? OXWAB?

    Yes, then Bath - 91 miles to 145.
    What about Westmoreland and Lonsdale?
    Westmoreland and Lonsdale is the only LD seat in the North, the Midlands and Wales now.

    Other than that all the LD seats are in London, the South and Scotland which North Shropshire is not part of.

    Culturally North Shopshire is not the seat for a LD gain, indeed not only is it strong Leave unlike Chesham and Amersham it has even fewer graduates than Old Bexley and Sidcup
    Have to say I agree with you. If the LD's do pull it off, then something dreadful is happening to the Conservatives nationally.

    Which would make it a very Good Morning, and while I suppose it might happen I really don't see it.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 16,772
    Scott_xP said:

    But there is a worrying side to this as well. It seems the phone app communicates with servers (I guess..), and therefore it would be easy for a malicious actor to stop that communication working, denying your usage of the car. Or for Tesla themselves to 'decide' that you shouldn't be able to use your car.

    Normal car keys, please. None of this Internet of Tat rubbish. ;)

    I got an email from one of my "smarthome" vendors recently advising me of a great new feature.

    Right now everything is cloud connected, so if I want to use Alexa to turn the lights on, it only works if my DSL circuits are up.

    In future they will be able to use local WiFi to talk to each other.

    What a concept...
    You can buy Wi-Fi enabled light switches that connect via the internet to little actuator motors that mounted on the physical light switch will press it for you. Progress.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 7,918

    darkage said:

    So... Tesla's keyless system is a bit idiotic.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-59357306

    KISS.

    Don't have this problem with a Dacia Sandero
    Never heard of it. ;)

    But there is a worrying side to this as well. It seems the phone app communicates with servers (I guess..), and therefore it would be easy for a malicious actor to stop that communication working, denying your usage of the car. Or for Tesla themselves to 'decide' that you shouldn't be able to use your car.

    Normal car keys, please. None of this Internet of Tat rubbish. ;)
    Normal keys are massively less secure than an app though. You can't roll the encryption keys that enable the ECU and you can lose them.

    The app is also good for preheating (or cooling) the car and checking charge level remotely. On balance it offers more functions that customers like.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 26,222
    Dura_Ace said:

    darkage said:

    So... Tesla's keyless system is a bit idiotic.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-59357306

    KISS.

    Don't have this problem with a Dacia Sandero
    Never heard of it. ;)

    But there is a worrying side to this as well. It seems the phone app communicates with servers (I guess..), and therefore it would be easy for a malicious actor to stop that communication working, denying your usage of the car. Or for Tesla themselves to 'decide' that you shouldn't be able to use your car.

    Normal car keys, please. None of this Internet of Tat rubbish. ;)
    Normal keys are massively less secure than an app though. You can't roll the encryption keys that enable the ECU and you can lose them.

    The app is also good for preheating (or cooling) the car and checking charge level remotely. On balance it offers more functions that customers like.
    Customers like being able to use their cars; something hundreds of Tesla owners have been denied due to an error somewhere at Tesla's end.

    The extra complexity makes them overall less secure; and worse, as has just happened, any failure in the long and complex chain can make your can unusable.

    And mobile phones can be lost as well...
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 7,918



    And mobile phones can be lost as well...

    Yeah but I can log in on any other phone to start the car. I can't just use any other car key to start it if I lose the key. Unless I have a 1st gen MX-5 of course.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 6,476
    darkage said:

    pigeon said:

    BigRich said:

    Crazy scenes in Holland. Let us hope the CMO, Javid and Johnson have got this right.

    https://twitter.com/alanvibe/status/1461809955648987136

    Gosh!

    Has the Netherlands re-imposesed a full lockdown? or just tweaked the restrictions for the unvaccinated?

    p.s. I do like the chap pushing a bicycle thought in the middle, very Dutch.
    Woke up this morning to see the rioting in Rotterdam on the news. It appears to be a reaction to what is described as a "partial lockdown" that has been imposed on the whole population, allegedly for three weeks - although we all know what happened over here last year, where the Government tried to deploy one of these useless "circuit breakers" in November, lifted it again, and finally ended up imprisoning everybody from Christmas to Easter.

    Once ministers impose these measures, previous experience shows that they find it very hard to let go of them, because of the rising case numbers and the panicked screaming from the boffins that follows as soon as they do so. The only thing that brings relief is warm weather: a lot of people in the countries that are finding themselves back in yet another cycle of lockdowns are probably terrified that they're going to be stuck in them for six months.
    My gut instinct is that we are not very far behind, although this isn't reflected in the data as yet. Its a good time to get stuff done before the next lockdown.
    Agreed. I may be suffering from some cognitive bias because my wife and I currently have it, but there seems to be a lot of it about, it's spreading really easily pretty much whenever people interact indoors. I know so many people getting it right now.
    I do feel a bit better this morning after a relatively good night. Adjusting for my wife's tendency to be more stoical than me I suspect she now has it worse. I'm going to go and make her a cup of tea.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,501
    Take Back Controoo...oohhhhh

    Boris Johnson has ordered a cross-Whitehall review into the migrant crisis after being “exasperated” by his government’s failure to stem the numbers.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-demands-channel-migrant-fix-9mvrnrbfm
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,236

    darkage said:

    pigeon said:

    BigRich said:

    Crazy scenes in Holland. Let us hope the CMO, Javid and Johnson have got this right.

    https://twitter.com/alanvibe/status/1461809955648987136

    Gosh!

    Has the Netherlands re-imposesed a full lockdown? or just tweaked the restrictions for the unvaccinated?

    p.s. I do like the chap pushing a bicycle thought in the middle, very Dutch.
    Woke up this morning to see the rioting in Rotterdam on the news. It appears to be a reaction to what is described as a "partial lockdown" that has been imposed on the whole population, allegedly for three weeks - although we all know what happened over here last year, where the Government tried to deploy one of these useless "circuit breakers" in November, lifted it again, and finally ended up imprisoning everybody from Christmas to Easter.

    Once ministers impose these measures, previous experience shows that they find it very hard to let go of them, because of the rising case numbers and the panicked screaming from the boffins that follows as soon as they do so. The only thing that brings relief is warm weather: a lot of people in the countries that are finding themselves back in yet another cycle of lockdowns are probably terrified that they're going to be stuck in them for six months.
    My gut instinct is that we are not very far behind, although this isn't reflected in the data as yet. Its a good time to get stuff done before the next lockdown.
    Agreed. I may be suffering from some cognitive bias because my wife and I currently have it, but there seems to be a lot of it about, it's spreading really easily pretty much whenever people interact indoors. I know so many people getting it right now.
    I do feel a bit better this morning after a relatively good night. Adjusting for my wife's tendency to be more stoical than me I suspect she now has it worse. I'm going to go and make her a cup of tea.
    I hope that, when you've made the tea and can settle down again to read this, you both continue to feel better.
    If you are doing so, then it's clear, that for Mr & Mrs OLB, This Thing Will Pass!

    Best of!
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 6,476

    darkage said:

    pigeon said:

    BigRich said:

    Crazy scenes in Holland. Let us hope the CMO, Javid and Johnson have got this right.

    https://twitter.com/alanvibe/status/1461809955648987136

    Gosh!

    Has the Netherlands re-imposesed a full lockdown? or just tweaked the restrictions for the unvaccinated?

    p.s. I do like the chap pushing a bicycle thought in the middle, very Dutch.
    Woke up this morning to see the rioting in Rotterdam on the news. It appears to be a reaction to what is described as a "partial lockdown" that has been imposed on the whole population, allegedly for three weeks - although we all know what happened over here last year, where the Government tried to deploy one of these useless "circuit breakers" in November, lifted it again, and finally ended up imprisoning everybody from Christmas to Easter.

    Once ministers impose these measures, previous experience shows that they find it very hard to let go of them, because of the rising case numbers and the panicked screaming from the boffins that follows as soon as they do so. The only thing that brings relief is warm weather: a lot of people in the countries that are finding themselves back in yet another cycle of lockdowns are probably terrified that they're going to be stuck in them for six months.
    My gut instinct is that we are not very far behind, although this isn't reflected in the data as yet. Its a good time to get stuff done before the next lockdown.
    Agreed. I may be suffering from some cognitive bias because my wife and I currently have it, but there seems to be a lot of it about, it's spreading really easily pretty much whenever people interact indoors. I know so many people getting it right now.
    I do feel a bit better this morning after a relatively good night. Adjusting for my wife's tendency to be more stoical than me I suspect she now has it worse. I'm going to go and make her a cup of tea.
    I hope that, when you've made the tea and can settle down again to read this, you both continue to feel better.
    If you are doing so, then it's clear, that for Mr & Mrs OLB, This Thing Will Pass!

    Best of!
    Thanks for your kind words OKC.
  • theProletheProle Posts: 552
    Dura_Ace said:



    And mobile phones can be lost as well...

    Yeah but I can log in on any other phone to start the car. I can't just use any other car key to start it if I lose the key. Unless I have a 1st gen MX-5 of course.
    If you think having a car unlockable via some Internet server is more secure than a physical key, I've a bridge to sell you. Dad did a project with the guy who did most of the software development of the keyless entry system for one of the major car manufacturers - the guy in question wouldn't have it on his own company car, because he knew how many vulnerabilities it posed.

    Like pretty much every development in vehicle tech in the last ten years, its a really stupid idea. As is having vehicles connected to the Internet full stop - there is no way on earth I'm ever going to have a vehicle with an Internet connection to it's software - it's just far too dangerous for everything from hacking/theft to the government using it to curtail civil liberties.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 26,222
    Dura_Ace said:



    And mobile phones can be lost as well...

    Yeah but I can log in on any other phone to start the car. I can't just use any other car key to start it if I lose the key. Unless I have a 1st gen MX-5 of course.
    I bet you have to have the app on the phone, etc, etc. You can also have a spare key: or your wife can have one. ;)

    Shortly after I learnt to drive, my mum had a little blue Ford Fiesta (*). I drove it to the cinema once, and when I came out I went to a blue Fiesta and unclocked it. It wasn't my mum's. In addition, my Land Rover key would not unlock another car we had, but would start the ignition...

    Cars have thankfully got a little more secure.

    (*) Written off when she was stopping for a roundabout on a dual carriageway, and a lorry didn't stop. Fortunately it didn't go over her car, but she did end up flying over the roundabout. Very lucky to just get bad whiplash ...
  • What is interesting for me about NS is the argument that because it is a leave seat it should be safe for the Tories.

    At some point the way people voted in 2016 will stop being a factor in how they vote in current elections. With Brexit now done and the threat of stopping it or even rejoining dead and buried, I am suggesting that time is now.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,228
    edited November 20

    What is interesting for me about NS is the argument that because it is a leave seat it should be safe for the Tories.

    At some point the way people voted in 2016 will stop being a factor in how they vote in current elections. With Brexit now done and the threat of stopping it or even rejoining dead and buried, I am suggesting that time is now.

    Arguably it’s the other way around in this case - it was a leave seat because it is strongly Tory.

    But in this case, it’s less about that than trying to identify what possible attack lines a rival party would have (of which Leave/Remain might be one).

    And the answer we keep coming back to is - none at all.

    I think the only possible trump the LDs have here is that their candidate is local and the Tory one isn’t.
  • ydoethur said:

    What is interesting for me about NS is the argument that because it is a leave seat it should be safe for the Tories.

    At some point the way people voted in 2016 will stop being a factor in how they vote in current elections. With Brexit now done and the threat of stopping it or even rejoining dead and buried, I am suggesting that time is now.

    Arguably it’s the other way around in this case - it was a leave seat because it is strongly Tory.

    But in this case, it’s less about that than trying to identify what possible attack lines a rival party would have (of which Leave/Remain might be one).

    And the answer we keep coming back to is - none at all.

    I think the only possible trump the LDs have here is that their candidate is local and the Tory one isn’t.
    Its a by-election where the government is under massive pressure because of corruption and lies. I think there is plenty for them to play on.

    I do agree that the candidate will help. HYUFD says the Tories have an excellent candidate, but they've had to parachute him in from Brum and he's already gone public saying he hasn't a clue about the constituency...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,228
    edited November 20

    ydoethur said:

    What is interesting for me about NS is the argument that because it is a leave seat it should be safe for the Tories.

    At some point the way people voted in 2016 will stop being a factor in how they vote in current elections. With Brexit now done and the threat of stopping it or even rejoining dead and buried, I am suggesting that time is now.

    Arguably it’s the other way around in this case - it was a leave seat because it is strongly Tory.

    But in this case, it’s less about that than trying to identify what possible attack lines a rival party would have (of which Leave/Remain might be one).

    And the answer we keep coming back to is - none at all.

    I think the only possible trump the LDs have here is that their candidate is local and the Tory one isn’t.
    Its a by-election where the government is under massive pressure because of corruption and lies. I think there is plenty for them to play on.

    I do agree that the candidate will help. HYUFD says the Tories have an excellent candidate, but they've had to parachute him in from Brum and he's already gone public saying he hasn't a clue about the constituency...
    North Shropshire have voted in Owen Paterson for 20 years despite knowing perfectly well he was a wrong 'un who was on the make. This may be the first time it's come to national attention but it's never been a secret in Shropshire.

    I very much doubt if that story will gain traction here. It's more likely to be a factor in OBS.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Take Back Controoo...oohhhhh

    Boris Johnson has ordered a cross-Whitehall review into the migrant crisis after being “exasperated” by his government’s failure to stem the numbers.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-demands-channel-migrant-fix-9mvrnrbfm

    The problem with current British politics in a nutshell.

    Most of our leaders are from a slice of the population who just have to say "make it so" and it will be so. The successful campaigns of 2016 and 2019 were all about the idea that the reason things weren't right in the UK was a lack of wanting, a lack of people saying "make it so" and rotten foreigners blocking our way to our rightful place at the top.

    It's an appealing theory, and it's understandable that people voted for it.

    Unfortunately, as the difficulty of stopping the tiny boats shows, wanting isn't anything like enough.
    I remain entertained by the prospects of them coming up with a deal to deport asylum seekers to an Albanian gulag. When so many of these boats are arriving and people are literally running off, how exactly are they to be deported?

    Perhaps Boris might want to look into the police and into Border Force and into the huge cuts made to their budgets by successive Tory governments...
  • TimSTimS Posts: 545

    ydoethur said:

    What is interesting for me about NS is the argument that because it is a leave seat it should be safe for the Tories.

    At some point the way people voted in 2016 will stop being a factor in how they vote in current elections. With Brexit now done and the threat of stopping it or even rejoining dead and buried, I am suggesting that time is now.

    Arguably it’s the other way around in this case - it was a leave seat because it is strongly Tory.

    But in this case, it’s less about that than trying to identify what possible attack lines a rival party would have (of which Leave/Remain might be one).

    And the answer we keep coming back to is - none at all.

    I think the only possible trump the LDs have here is that their candidate is local and the Tory one isn’t.
    Its a by-election where the government is under massive pressure because of corruption and lies. I think there is plenty for them to play on.

    I do agree that the candidate will help. HYUFD says the Tories have an excellent candidate, but they've had to parachute him in from Brum and he's already gone public saying he hasn't a clue about the constituency...
    It’s a somewhat forgotten corner of the country and not one I’d expect to be cleanly following national trends.

    Shropshire is a chimera of a county. The South is culturally and scenically an extension of Herefordshire and Radnorshire, quite graduate-heavy, good food and drink, and sharing a family likeness to the West Country. The flat North is completely different: still pretty, but post industrial closer in vibe to the West Midlands and Staffordshire. It feels like an easy Tory hold like Bexley does.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 32,017
    edited November 20
    Good post.

    North Shropshire = Crawford/Porter.

    Plenty of what ifs, it's politics/boxing anything could happen but at the end of the day it's not really possible to see beyond the favourite.
  • For your viewing pleasure, here is Zarah Sultana being tied up in knots by her own mini-brain. Note Shadow Leader of the House Thangam Debbonaire's body language...

    https://twitter.com/beardedjourno/status/1461692937201500161

    Where does the hard left find these utter morons like Sultana?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 7,918

    Scott_xP said:

    Take Back Controoo...oohhhhh

    Boris Johnson has ordered a cross-Whitehall review into the migrant crisis after being “exasperated” by his government’s failure to stem the numbers.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-demands-channel-migrant-fix-9mvrnrbfm

    The problem with current British politics in a nutshell.

    Most of our leaders are from a slice of the population who just have to say "make it so" and it will be so. The successful campaigns of 2016 and 2019 were all about the idea that the reason things weren't right in the UK was a lack of wanting, a lack of people saying "make it so" and rotten foreigners blocking our way to our rightful place at the top.

    It's an appealing theory, and it's understandable that people voted for it.

    Unfortunately, as the difficulty of stopping the tiny boats shows, wanting isn't anything like enough.
    I remain entertained by the prospects of them coming up with a deal to deport asylum seekers to an Albanian gulag. When so many of these boats are arriving and people are literally running off, how exactly are they to be deported?

    Perhaps Boris might want to look into the police and into Border Force and into the huge cuts made to their budgets by successive Tory governments...
    It's nothing to do with money as a tow back costs almost nothing. It's just that the government doesn't have the guts to do it.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,832

    Dura_Ace said:

    darkage said:

    So... Tesla's keyless system is a bit idiotic.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-59357306

    KISS.

    Don't have this problem with a Dacia Sandero
    Never heard of it. ;)

    But there is a worrying side to this as well. It seems the phone app communicates with servers (I guess..), and therefore it would be easy for a malicious actor to stop that communication working, denying your usage of the car. Or for Tesla themselves to 'decide' that you shouldn't be able to use your car.

    Normal car keys, please. None of this Internet of Tat rubbish. ;)
    Normal keys are massively less secure than an app though. You can't roll the encryption keys that enable the ECU and you can lose them.

    The app is also good for preheating (or cooling) the car and checking charge level remotely. On balance it offers more functions that customers like.
    Customers like being able to use their cars; something hundreds of Tesla owners have been denied due to an error somewhere at Tesla's end.

    The extra complexity makes them overall less secure; and worse, as has just happened, any failure in the long and complex chain can make your can unusable.

    And mobile phones can be lost as well...
    Teslas also come with a card key. This is like saying it would be a massive and unforgivable scandal on Apple’s part if Apple Pay went down for a few hours when people hadn’t bothered taking a credit card with them.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,791
    TOPPING said:

    Good post.

    North Shropshire = Crawford/Porter.

    Plenty of what ifs, it's politics/boxing anything could happen but at the end of the day it's not really possible to see beyond the favourite.

    One of my favourite quotes about elections, which annoyingly I've never been able to find the source for but I'm sure was a quote by a pollster two days before the 2012 election, is "Anything could happen in the next 48 hours, but it probably won't". Sums up uncertainty but probability so well, and is often a very useful (and profitable) approach to take.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,609

    ydoethur said:

    What is interesting for me about NS is the argument that because it is a leave seat it should be safe for the Tories.

    At some point the way people voted in 2016 will stop being a factor in how they vote in current elections. With Brexit now done and the threat of stopping it or even rejoining dead and buried, I am suggesting that time is now.

    Arguably it’s the other way around in this case - it was a leave seat because it is strongly Tory.

    But in this case, it’s less about that than trying to identify what possible attack lines a rival party would have (of which Leave/Remain might be one).

    And the answer we keep coming back to is - none at all.

    I think the only possible trump the LDs have here is that their candidate is local and the Tory one isn’t.
    Its a by-election where the government is under massive pressure because of corruption and lies. I think there is plenty for them to play on.

    I do agree that the candidate will help. HYUFD says the Tories have an excellent candidate, but they've had to parachute him in from Brum and he's already gone public saying he hasn't a clue about the constituency...
    Perhaps so. It is also a seat where 22% voted for Corbyn in 2019, a pretty significant hard left vote for a rural Midlands seat. I don't think that the LDs will squeeze that entirely.

    To use one of the phrases of the moment, there may too be some buyers remorse over Brexit particularly over farming issues. As in Bexley, I expect Con hold with a reduced vote share.

    My tip of the day is Chelsea to win at 1.83 on Betfair and Smarkets. Our defence is shambolic, while Chelseas is rock solid and we are missing Tielemans our player of the season. We beat them in the FA Cup final, but the teams have gone in opposite directions since. Leicester always do badly with the early kick off on Saturday. The handicap markets are good too.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 57,370
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: nice to have a weekend when things are on at the normal time, without a sprint race.

    As an aside, but for the sprint race I reckon Verstappen would've extended his advantage by probably 10 and at least 3 points. Title would almost certainly be his.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,888
    There’s zero public polling evidence that NS is even close. Is anyone aware of any seat specific polling in the works?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 26,222
    moonshine said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    darkage said:

    So... Tesla's keyless system is a bit idiotic.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-59357306

    KISS.

    Don't have this problem with a Dacia Sandero
    Never heard of it. ;)

    But there is a worrying side to this as well. It seems the phone app communicates with servers (I guess..), and therefore it would be easy for a malicious actor to stop that communication working, denying your usage of the car. Or for Tesla themselves to 'decide' that you shouldn't be able to use your car.

    Normal car keys, please. None of this Internet of Tat rubbish. ;)
    Normal keys are massively less secure than an app though. You can't roll the encryption keys that enable the ECU and you can lose them.

    The app is also good for preheating (or cooling) the car and checking charge level remotely. On balance it offers more functions that customers like.
    Customers like being able to use their cars; something hundreds of Tesla owners have been denied due to an error somewhere at Tesla's end.

    The extra complexity makes them overall less secure; and worse, as has just happened, any failure in the long and complex chain can make your can unusable.

    And mobile phones can be lost as well...
    Teslas also come with a card key. This is like saying it would be a massive and unforgivable scandal on Apple’s part if Apple Pay went down for a few hours when people hadn’t bothered taking a credit card with them.
    Not really.

    And yet hundreds of customers have been locked out of their cars due to an Internet of Tat failure.

    And why the holy f**k is the app having to talk to t'Internet to unlock or drive the car?

    Mrs J creates chips that, amongst other things, get used in IoT. We get (most of) the tech. However, we both believe that the tech is being stupidly and inappropriately applied just so companies can put 'Internet Enabled!' on their boxes.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 57,370
    Aye, the Internet of Things is rampantly over-used. I do think, even as a luddite, there are reasonable cases (cameras and doorbells). But an internet-connected kettle? Only for lazy swine.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,228

    For your viewing pleasure, here is Zarah Sultana being tied up in knots by her own mini-brain. Note Shadow Leader of the House Thangam Debbonaire's body language...

    https://twitter.com/beardedjourno/status/1461692937201500161

    Where does the hard left find these utter morons like Sultana?

    How on Earth can she not think of another word for 'dodgy?'

    Admittedly I might have asked her to withdraw it on the grounds that called Grant Shapps 'dodgy' is something of an understatement, but surely 'inept,' 'dubious,' 'duplicitous,' 'lazy' and 'pig ignorant' would all have fitted the bill?

    But then, she never was exactly with it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,228

    Aye, the Internet of Things is rampantly over-used. I do think, even as a luddite, there are reasonable cases (cameras and doorbells). But an internet-connected kettle? Only for lazy swine.

    The mere idea clearly makes you boil :smile:
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,932
    eek said:

    I know it’s covering old ground now but people may like this (it’s an actually funny cartoon).

    image

    Not seeing the funny bit. Maybe you meant to link a different one?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,832

    moonshine said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    darkage said:

    So... Tesla's keyless system is a bit idiotic.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-59357306

    KISS.

    Don't have this problem with a Dacia Sandero
    Never heard of it. ;)

    But there is a worrying side to this as well. It seems the phone app communicates with servers (I guess..), and therefore it would be easy for a malicious actor to stop that communication working, denying your usage of the car. Or for Tesla themselves to 'decide' that you shouldn't be able to use your car.

    Normal car keys, please. None of this Internet of Tat rubbish. ;)
    Normal keys are massively less secure than an app though. You can't roll the encryption keys that enable the ECU and you can lose them.

    The app is also good for preheating (or cooling) the car and checking charge level remotely. On balance it offers more functions that customers like.
    Customers like being able to use their cars; something hundreds of Tesla owners have been denied due to an error somewhere at Tesla's end.

    The extra complexity makes them overall less secure; and worse, as has just happened, any failure in the long and complex chain can make your can unusable.

    And mobile phones can be lost as well...
    Teslas also come with a card key. This is like saying it would be a massive and unforgivable scandal on Apple’s part if Apple Pay went down for a few hours when people hadn’t bothered taking a credit card with them.
    Not really.

    And yet hundreds of customers have been locked out of their cars due to an Internet of Tat failure.

    And why the holy f**k is the app having to talk to t'Internet to unlock or drive the car?

    Mrs J creates chips that, amongst other things, get used in IoT. We get (most of) the tech. However, we both believe that the tech is being stupidly and inappropriately applied just so companies can put 'Internet Enabled!' on their boxes.
    Oh my goodness! Hundreds!

    Presumably the other million all had their car key with them.
  • theakestheakes Posts: 562
    Expecting to visit the seat in the next 48 hours, will objectively and honestly report back my feelings about what is happening. Live in a neighbouring seat and have to say the signs at this early stage are contrary to what Pipa feels. One problem for the Conservatives is that their candidate lives in Birmingham and apparently did not take any media interviews for a week, saying he wanted to get to know the constituency!!!!
    But I will see what I find.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 358
    ydoethur said:

    For your viewing pleasure, here is Zarah Sultana being tied up in knots by her own mini-brain. Note Shadow Leader of the House Thangam Debbonaire's body language...

    https://twitter.com/beardedjourno/status/1461692937201500161

    Where does the hard left find these utter morons like Sultana?

    How on Earth can she not think of another word for 'dodgy?'

    Admittedly I might have asked her to withdraw it on the grounds that called Grant Shapps 'dodgy' is something of an understatement, but surely 'inept,' 'dubious,' 'duplicitous,' 'lazy' and 'pig ignorant' would all have fitted the bill?

    But then, she never was exactly with it.
    “It’s a bit iffy” isn’t it?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 358
    Jade Walks Her Talk and shows some Chalk

    14:25 Haydock - Flight Deck [Old Bony]
    14:40 Ascot - Song for Someone [nb]

    Thats 2 for this Saturday. Sorry it’s not sooner I was gone shopping.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,228
    theakes said:

    Expecting to visit the seat in the next 48 hours, will objectively and honestly report back my feelings about what is happening. Live in a neighbouring seat and have to say the signs at this early stage are contrary to what Pipa feels. One problem for the Conservatives is that their candidate lives in Birmingham and apparently did not take any media interviews for a week, saying he wanted to get to know the constituency!!!!
    But I will see what I find.

    If Ed Davey has an ounce of political sense he will ignore sleaze and go with that. Albeit it may be less effective as Ben Wood (Lab) is also from Oswestry.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 358
    Charles said:

    eek said:

    I know it’s covering old ground now but people may like this (it’s an actually funny cartoon).

    image

    Not seeing the funny bit. Maybe you meant to link a different one?
    I did argue with Eek, but only on the basis: is covering the Earth with more concrete really the answers not rethinking the way we live and work.

    But I fully respect Eek and the many others like Ydoethur who do know what he is talking about questioning the practicalities of these rail plans and promises.

    That’s the key bit. Where Grannt Shapps and Boris say we are “delivering” such and such reduced times etc , it is no, you are only “promising” such and such reduced times. With many experts saying it’s fantastical pie in the sky promises. Technicalities and difficulties here and there which can be very diverse questions (if you excuse the pun) line by line.

    That definition between delivering this plan and promising a pie in the sky plan is key, because many experts do finish off by saying if government do deliver these promises it’s not such a bad plan On paper. Experts just don’t believe it will be delivered or even with best effort in the world can be delivered, and think it’s been over spun. Now the dust has settled, that’s where we are isn’t it?
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 941
    edited November 20

    Dura_Ace said:

    darkage said:

    So... Tesla's keyless system is a bit idiotic.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-59357306

    KISS.

    Don't have this problem with a Dacia Sandero
    Never heard of it. ;)

    But there is a worrying side to this as well. It seems the phone app communicates with servers (I guess..), and therefore it would be easy for a malicious actor to stop that communication working, denying your usage of the car. Or for Tesla themselves to 'decide' that you shouldn't be able to use your car.

    Normal car keys, please. None of this Internet of Tat rubbish. ;)
    Normal keys are massively less secure than an app though. You can't roll the encryption keys that enable the ECU and you can lose them.

    The app is also good for preheating (or cooling) the car and checking charge level remotely. On balance it offers more functions that customers like.
    Customers like being able to use their cars; something hundreds of Tesla owners have been denied due to an error somewhere at Tesla's end.

    The extra complexity makes them overall less secure; and worse, as has just happened, any failure in the long and complex chain can make your can unusable.

    And mobile phones can be lost as well...
    Plus it is unlikely that a Dacia Sandero will get stolen, and if it gets nicked then its £7k to replace it. You could always get a steering wheel lock as well for extra protection.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,609
    edited November 20

    For your viewing pleasure, here is Zarah Sultana being tied up in knots by her own mini-brain. Note Shadow Leader of the House Thangam Debbonaire's body language...

    https://twitter.com/beardedjourno/status/1461692937201500161

    Where does the hard left find these utter morons like Sultana?

    I thought Thangam Debbonaire quite brilliant in the debate. She is one to watch and a future Leader candidate. I do have a soft spot for Sultana, apart from the usual anti-semitic blind spot. She has quite a strong twitter and tiktok following. She is likely to be the hard left candidate in the next contest.

    https://vm.tiktok.com/ZM8p638YK/
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,228

    ydoethur said:

    For your viewing pleasure, here is Zarah Sultana being tied up in knots by her own mini-brain. Note Shadow Leader of the House Thangam Debbonaire's body language...

    https://twitter.com/beardedjourno/status/1461692937201500161

    Where does the hard left find these utter morons like Sultana?

    How on Earth can she not think of another word for 'dodgy?'

    Admittedly I might have asked her to withdraw it on the grounds that called Grant Shapps 'dodgy' is something of an understatement, but surely 'inept,' 'dubious,' 'duplicitous,' 'lazy' and 'pig ignorant' would all have fitted the bill?

    But then, she never was exactly with it.
    “It’s a bit iffy” isn’t it?
    Almost as iffy as an MP who said she would hold celebrations to mark the deaths of political enemies within her own party.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,228
    darkage said:



    Dura_Ace said:

    darkage said:

    So... Tesla's keyless system is a bit idiotic.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-59357306

    KISS.

    Don't have this problem with a Dacia Sandero
    Never heard of it. ;)

    But there is a worrying side to this as well. It seems the phone app communicates with servers (I guess..), and therefore it would be easy for a malicious actor to stop that communication working, denying your usage of the car. Or for Tesla themselves to 'decide' that you shouldn't be able to use your car.

    Normal car keys, please. None of this Internet of Tat rubbish. ;)
    Normal keys are massively less secure than an app though. You can't roll the encryption keys that enable the ECU and you can lose them.

    The app is also good for preheating (or cooling) the car and checking charge level remotely. On balance it offers more functions that customers like.
    Customers like being able to use their cars; something hundreds of Tesla owners have been denied due to an error somewhere at Tesla's end.

    The extra complexity makes them overall less secure; and worse, as has just happened, any failure in the long and complex chain can make your can unusable.

    And mobile phones can be lost as well...
    Plus it is unlikely that a Dacia Sandero will get stolen, and if it gets nicked then its £7k to replace it. You could always get a steering wheel lock as well for extra protection.
    Why bother? Much cheaper just to remove the steering wheel.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 358
    ydoethur said:

    Aye, the Internet of Things is rampantly over-used. I do think, even as a luddite, there are reasonable cases (cameras and doorbells). But an internet-connected kettle? Only for lazy swine.

    The mere idea clearly makes you boil :smile:
    Oh my God. Imagine being hacked and p*wned because of your “lazy kettle”
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 6,476

    Scott_xP said:

    Take Back Controoo...oohhhhh

    Boris Johnson has ordered a cross-Whitehall review into the migrant crisis after being “exasperated” by his government’s failure to stem the numbers.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-demands-channel-migrant-fix-9mvrnrbfm

    The problem with current British politics in a nutshell.

    Most of our leaders are from a slice of the population who just have to say "make it so" and it will be so. The successful campaigns of 2016 and 2019 were all about the idea that the reason things weren't right in the UK was a lack of wanting, a lack of people saying "make it so" and rotten foreigners blocking our way to our rightful place at the top.

    It's an appealing theory, and it's understandable that people voted for it.

    Unfortunately, as the difficulty of stopping the tiny boats shows, wanting isn't anything like enough.
    I remain entertained by the prospects of them coming up with a deal to deport asylum seekers to an Albanian gulag. When so many of these boats are arriving and people are literally running off, how exactly are they to be deported?

    Perhaps Boris might want to look into the police and into Border Force and into the huge cuts made to their budgets by successive Tory governments...
    I very much doubt the Albanians would be up for this. What if the refugees decided they wanted to stay in Albania? It's a beautiful country and it has far nicer weather than we do.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,228

    Charles said:

    eek said:

    I know it’s covering old ground now but people may like this (it’s an actually funny cartoon).

    image

    Not seeing the funny bit. Maybe you meant to link a different one?
    I did argue with Eek, but only on the basis: is covering the Earth with more concrete really the answers not rethinking the way we live and work.

    But I fully respect Eek and the many others like Ydoethur who do know what he is talking about questioning the practicalities of these rail plans and promises.

    That’s the key bit. Where Grannt Shapps and Boris say we are “delivering” such and such reduced times etc , it is no, you are only “promising” such and such reduced times. With many experts saying it’s fantastical pie in the sky promises. Technicalities and difficulties here and there which can be very diverse questions (if you excuse the pun) line by line.

    That definition between delivering this plan and promising a pie in the sky plan is key, because many experts do finish off by saying if government do deliver these promises it’s not such a bad plan On paper. Experts just don’t believe it will be delivered or even with best effort in the world can be delivered, and think it’s been over spun. Now the dust has settled, that’s where we are isn’t it?
    Well, no, they're not saying that because it isn't a plan. And even if it was, it isn't deliverable. And even if it was a plan and was deliverable, it would still be more money for less enhancement. Which would not necessarily be a good plan.

    But in a sense, that's not the point. What's being done here is the attempt at cancelling a major infrastructure upgrade. When you do that, you put forward alternatives, which are complex and piecemeal and can be jettisoned one at a time later. Which is what will happen here unless HS2 is built in full. Which it may well still be.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,079
    edited November 20

    darkage said:

    pigeon said:

    BigRich said:

    Crazy scenes in Holland. Let us hope the CMO, Javid and Johnson have got this right.

    https://twitter.com/alanvibe/status/1461809955648987136

    Gosh!

    Has the Netherlands re-imposesed a full lockdown? or just tweaked the restrictions for the unvaccinated?

    p.s. I do like the chap pushing a bicycle thought in the middle, very Dutch.
    Woke up this morning to see the rioting in Rotterdam on the news. It appears to be a reaction to what is described as a "partial lockdown" that has been imposed on the whole population, allegedly for three weeks - although we all know what happened over here last year, where the Government tried to deploy one of these useless "circuit breakers" in November, lifted it again, and finally ended up imprisoning everybody from Christmas to Easter.

    Once ministers impose these measures, previous experience shows that they find it very hard to let go of them, because of the rising case numbers and the panicked screaming from the boffins that follows as soon as they do so. The only thing that brings relief is warm weather: a lot of people in the countries that are finding themselves back in yet another cycle of lockdowns are probably terrified that they're going to be stuck in them for six months.
    My gut instinct is that we are not very far behind, although this isn't reflected in the data as yet. Its a good time to get stuff done before the next lockdown.
    Agreed. I may be suffering from some cognitive bias because my wife and I currently have it, but there seems to be a lot of it about, it's spreading really easily pretty much whenever people interact indoors. I know so many people getting it right now.
    I do feel a bit better this morning after a relatively good night. Adjusting for my wife's tendency to be more stoical than me I suspect she now has it worse. I'm going to go and make her a cup of tea.
    I hope that, when you've made the tea and can settle down again to read this, you both continue to feel better.
    If you are doing so, then it's clear, that for Mr & Mrs OLB, This Thing Will Pass!

    Best of!
    Seconded.
    I’m more or less over the after effects, having been back at work for a week.
    ydoethur said:

    For your viewing pleasure, here is Zarah Sultana being tied up in knots by her own mini-brain. Note Shadow Leader of the House Thangam Debbonaire's body language...

    https://twitter.com/beardedjourno/status/1461692937201500161

    Where does the hard left find these utter morons like Sultana?

    How on Earth can she not think of another word for 'dodgy?'

    Admittedly I might have asked her to withdraw it on the grounds that called Grant Shapps 'dodgy' is something of an understatement, but surely 'inept,' 'dubious,' 'duplicitous,' 'lazy' and 'pig ignorant' would all have fitted the bill?

    But then, she never was exactly with it.
    Economical with the probity ?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,622

    Aye, the Internet of Things is rampantly over-used. I do think, even as a luddite, there are reasonable cases (cameras and doorbells). But an internet-connected kettle? Only for lazy swine.

    I don't have an internet-connected kettle but I can run (or reheat) my bath from my phone, and also all the heaters/air conditioners in the house and office. This is really handy - I mainly use it in the house, for instance I want to warm up downstairs when I'm in bed. It would work if it was only on my local house network rather than going via the internet but I'm sure it's easier to support and troubleshoot an internet service than one that's only on a LAN.

    I don't really see why you *wouldn't* want to be able to do that - a net-connected kettle would also be handy. If you want a cup of tea when you get up, I think you obviously want to start boiling the kettle before you get out of bed. It's not just a matter of being lazy, it's also a time-saver. I suppose someone could hack it, but the worst thing that would happen would be that my house would get heated when I didn't want it to, which doesn't sound catastrophic.

    Basically anything electronic should be operable from your phone, unless there's a security reason not to do it. (Cameras are a case where there actually *is* a good security reason not to...)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,564
    ydoethur said:

    theakes said:

    Expecting to visit the seat in the next 48 hours, will objectively and honestly report back my feelings about what is happening. Live in a neighbouring seat and have to say the signs at this early stage are contrary to what Pipa feels. One problem for the Conservatives is that their candidate lives in Birmingham and apparently did not take any media interviews for a week, saying he wanted to get to know the constituency!!!!
    But I will see what I find.

    If Ed Davey has an ounce of political sense he will ignore sleaze and go with that. Albeit it may be less effective as Ben Wood (Lab) is also from Oswestry.
    The Tories seem to have been unable to find a strong candidate for either of the by-elections
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,236

    Scott_xP said:

    Take Back Controoo...oohhhhh

    Boris Johnson has ordered a cross-Whitehall review into the migrant crisis after being “exasperated” by his government’s failure to stem the numbers.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-demands-channel-migrant-fix-9mvrnrbfm

    The problem with current British politics in a nutshell.

    Most of our leaders are from a slice of the population who just have to say "make it so" and it will be so. The successful campaigns of 2016 and 2019 were all about the idea that the reason things weren't right in the UK was a lack of wanting, a lack of people saying "make it so" and rotten foreigners blocking our way to our rightful place at the top.

    It's an appealing theory, and it's understandable that people voted for it.

    Unfortunately, as the difficulty of stopping the tiny boats shows, wanting isn't anything like enough.
    I remain entertained by the prospects of them coming up with a deal to deport asylum seekers to an Albanian gulag. When so many of these boats are arriving and people are literally running off, how exactly are they to be deported?

    Perhaps Boris might want to look into the police and into Border Force and into the huge cuts made to their budgets by successive Tory governments...
    I very much doubt the Albanians would be up for this. What if the refugees decided they wanted to stay in Albania? It's a beautiful country and it has far nicer weather than we do.
    Moslem heritage, too, AIUI.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,932
    Quincel said:

    TOPPING said:

    Good post.

    North Shropshire = Crawford/Porter.

    Plenty of what ifs, it's politics/boxing anything could happen but at the end of the day it's not really possible to see beyond the favourite.

    One of my favourite quotes about elections, which annoyingly I've never been able to find the source for but I'm sure was a quote by a pollster two days before the 2012 election, is "Anything could happen in the next 48 hours, but it probably won't". Sums up uncertainty but probability so well, and is often a very useful (and profitable) approach to take.
    If you are looking for a quote 2 days before the 2012 election…
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 941

    For your viewing pleasure, here is Zarah Sultana being tied up in knots by her own mini-brain. Note Shadow Leader of the House Thangam Debbonaire's body language...

    https://twitter.com/beardedjourno/status/1461692937201500161

    Where does the hard left find these utter morons like Sultana?

    If they can find a way to weaponise the poor quality of labour MPs arising from the Corbyn era; this may ultimately save the Tories in the next election.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 57,370
    edited November 20
    Mr. Tokyo, I am not convinced.

    Also, the worst that can happen is hackers utilising the tiny processing power of thousands of IoT devices and using that to break into banks or create DDOS attacks to bring down major online infrastructure.

    Edited extra bit: or, in your bath situation, they could run it and see whether sufficient water damage can be caused to ruin your home.
  • Charles said:

    eek said:

    I know it’s covering old ground now but people may like this (it’s an actually funny cartoon).

    image

    Not seeing the funny bit. Maybe you meant to link a different one?
    To echo great thinkers such as Sheldon Cooper and the Stupid Deaths Guy from Horrible Histories:

    It's funny 'cos it's true.

    Unlike BoJo's HS2 promises.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,236

    Aye, the Internet of Things is rampantly over-used. I do think, even as a luddite, there are reasonable cases (cameras and doorbells). But an internet-connected kettle? Only for lazy swine.

    I don't have an internet-connected kettle but I can run (or reheat) my bath from my phone, and also all the heaters/air conditioners in the house and office. This is really handy - I mainly use it in the house, for instance I want to warm up downstairs when I'm in bed. It would work if it was only on my local house network rather than going via the internet but I'm sure it's easier to support and troubleshoot an internet service than one that's only on a LAN.

    I don't really see why you *wouldn't* want to be able to do that - a net-connected kettle would also be handy. If you want a cup of tea when you get up, I think you obviously want to start boiling the kettle before you get out of bed. It's not just a matter of being lazy, it's also a time-saver. I suppose someone could hack it, but the worst thing that would happen would be that my house would get heated when I didn't want it to, which doesn't sound catastrophic.

    Basically anything electronic should be operable from your phone, unless there's a security reason not to do it. (Cameras are a case where there actually *is* a good security reason not to...)
    How do you fill the kettle?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 4,388
    The article is an excellent analysis. The only comment I would add is that Labour have a better chance in OB&S than the LDs do in NS. But neither chance is good.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 6,476

    Scott_xP said:

    Take Back Controoo...oohhhhh

    Boris Johnson has ordered a cross-Whitehall review into the migrant crisis after being “exasperated” by his government’s failure to stem the numbers.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-demands-channel-migrant-fix-9mvrnrbfm

    The problem with current British politics in a nutshell.

    Most of our leaders are from a slice of the population who just have to say "make it so" and it will be so. The successful campaigns of 2016 and 2019 were all about the idea that the reason things weren't right in the UK was a lack of wanting, a lack of people saying "make it so" and rotten foreigners blocking our way to our rightful place at the top.

    It's an appealing theory, and it's understandable that people voted for it.

    Unfortunately, as the difficulty of stopping the tiny boats shows, wanting isn't anything like enough.
    I remain entertained by the prospects of them coming up with a deal to deport asylum seekers to an Albanian gulag. When so many of these boats are arriving and people are literally running off, how exactly are they to be deported?

    Perhaps Boris might want to look into the police and into Border Force and into the huge cuts made to their budgets by successive Tory governments...
    I very much doubt the Albanians would be up for this. What if the refugees decided they wanted to stay in Albania? It's a beautiful country and it has far nicer weather than we do.
    Moslem heritage, too, AIUI.
    Yes, a mixture of Muslim and Orthodox I think but not much in evidence thanks to communism I suppose. We had a really amazing family holiday there a few years back. Would really recommend for anyone with young kids, it is so family friendly indeed so friendly full stop. People just seemed to want to pick up our kids and cuddle them in the street all the time. Fantastic country.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,622

    Mr. Tokyo, I am not convinced.

    Also, the worst that can happen is hackers utilising the tiny processing power of thousands of IoT devices and using that to break into banks or create DDOS attacks to bring down major online infrastructure.

    Edited extra bit: or, in your bath situation, they could run it and see whether sufficient water damage can be caused to ruin your home.

    Realistically finding a hackable internet-connected device isn't likely to be the main bottleneck for a DDoS. I know it's been done on occasion, but it's unusual for it to be the best way, especially when routers are such garbage.

    You can't ruin my home by overflowing the bath because it has advanced Japanese overflow hole technology which sends the water down the drain if the level gets too high using gravity, and even if they somehow managed emit a tone that called all the spiders in the house and persuaded them to block the hole, all you'd do would be to put water on same tiled floor and down the same drain that I use when operating my shower normally.
  • Foxy said:

    For your viewing pleasure, here is Zarah Sultana being tied up in knots by her own mini-brain. Note Shadow Leader of the House Thangam Debbonaire's body language...

    https://twitter.com/beardedjourno/status/1461692937201500161

    Where does the hard left find these utter morons like Sultana?

    I thought Thangam Debbonaire quite brilliant in the debate. She is one to watch and a future Leader candidate. I do have a soft spot for Sultana, apart from the usual anti-semitic blind spot. She has quite a strong twitter and tiktok following. She is likely to be the hard left candidate in the next contest.

    https://vm.tiktok.com/ZM8p638YK/
    What other forms of racism deserve description as "blind spots" in your language?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 358
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    For your viewing pleasure, here is Zarah Sultana being tied up in knots by her own mini-brain. Note Shadow Leader of the House Thangam Debbonaire's body language...

    https://twitter.com/beardedjourno/status/1461692937201500161

    Where does the hard left find these utter morons like Sultana?

    How on Earth can she not think of another word for 'dodgy?'

    Admittedly I might have asked her to withdraw it on the grounds that called Grant Shapps 'dodgy' is something of an understatement, but surely 'inept,' 'dubious,' 'duplicitous,' 'lazy' and 'pig ignorant' would all have fitted the bill?

    But then, she never was exactly with it.
    “It’s a bit iffy” isn’t it?
    Almost as iffy as an MP who said she would hold celebrations to mark the deaths of political enemies within her own party.
    Am I right in that you are saying this is what Sultana actually said?

    What a currant bun. If I was her leader I would ban her right away!
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,622

    Aye, the Internet of Things is rampantly over-used. I do think, even as a luddite, there are reasonable cases (cameras and doorbells). But an internet-connected kettle? Only for lazy swine.

    I don't have an internet-connected kettle but I can run (or reheat) my bath from my phone, and also all the heaters/air conditioners in the house and office. This is really handy - I mainly use it in the house, for instance I want to warm up downstairs when I'm in bed. It would work if it was only on my local house network rather than going via the internet but I'm sure it's easier to support and troubleshoot an internet service than one that's only on a LAN.

    I don't really see why you *wouldn't* want to be able to do that - a net-connected kettle would also be handy. If you want a cup of tea when you get up, I think you obviously want to start boiling the kettle before you get out of bed. It's not just a matter of being lazy, it's also a time-saver. I suppose someone could hack it, but the worst thing that would happen would be that my house would get heated when I didn't want it to, which doesn't sound catastrophic.

    Basically anything electronic should be operable from your phone, unless there's a security reason not to do it. (Cameras are a case where there actually *is* a good security reason not to...)
    How do you fill the kettle?
    I imagine you'd refill it after you use it? However it's true there are limits on the bath, because it can't control the plug, and also can't get the spiders out.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 941
    Regarding the internet of things: Read Shoshana Zuboff's book 'the Age of Surveillance Capitalism'; or if you can't manage the book, some of the articles and podcasts she did around the time such as this interview with David Runciman of Cambridge University.

    https://www.talkingpoliticspodcast.com/blog/2019/144-the-nightmare-of-surveillance-capitalism

    Zuboff describes how this is fundamentally altering human nature. People are becoming addicted to and dependent on technology in ways that are completely unnecessary, to serve the interests of commerce. I've seen this over and over again, and it is just all really sad.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,228
    edited November 20

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    For your viewing pleasure, here is Zarah Sultana being tied up in knots by her own mini-brain. Note Shadow Leader of the House Thangam Debbonaire's body language...

    https://twitter.com/beardedjourno/status/1461692937201500161

    Where does the hard left find these utter morons like Sultana?

    How on Earth can she not think of another word for 'dodgy?'

    Admittedly I might have asked her to withdraw it on the grounds that called Grant Shapps 'dodgy' is something of an understatement, but surely 'inept,' 'dubious,' 'duplicitous,' 'lazy' and 'pig ignorant' would all have fitted the bill?

    But then, she never was exactly with it.
    “It’s a bit iffy” isn’t it?
    Almost as iffy as an MP who said she would hold celebrations to mark the deaths of political enemies within her own party.
    Am I right in that you are saying this is what Sultana actually said?

    What a currant bun. If I was her leader I would ban her right away!
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-coventry-warwickshire-50292235

    (OK, so she wasn't actually an MP at the time.)
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