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For the Tories Bexle & Sidcup could not have come at a worse time – politicalbetting.com
For the Tories Bexle & Sidcup could not have come at a worse time – politicalbetting.com
Bloody love a by-election, me Great to help in Old Bexley and Sidcup this week for @danfrancis02 pic.twitter.com/xyyMP52QDk
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Even on the swing from the recent Comres poll giving a 6% Labour lead (the worst of the current polls for the Tories), the Tories would still get 55% of the vote in Old Bexley and Sidcup with Labour on 31%.
So hard to see anything other than a comfortable Conservative hold even if the Tory majority is down.
Generally Conservative v Labour by election results reflect the national polls, only seats where the LDs are the main challengers tend to see swings bigger than the national average as they flood the seat with activists and are the natural party for midterm protest without going all the way to the other main party
Bellingham (WA) Herald - State lawmaker ill with COVID-19 in El Salvador
State Sen. Doug Ericksen of Ferndale is sickened with COVID-19 in El Salvador and is unable to receive antibody drugs to treat it. Ericksen, a Republican who represents the 42nd District in Whatcom County, has reached out to legislative colleagues for advice on how to receive monoclonal antibodies, which are unavailable in that Latin American nation, his spokesman Erik Smith told The Bellingham Herald on Friday. In a message to members of the state House and Senate, Ericksen said he took a trip to El Salvador and tested positive for COVID-19 shortly after he arrived.
Smith said members of the senator’s staff have been unable to reach Ericksen directly. “We have been unable to get ahold of Sen. Ericksen but we believe (the message) to be true,” Smith said.
In his message to legislators, Ericksen said his condition was “to the point that I feel it would be beneficial for me to receive an IV or monoclonal antibodies (Regeneron). I have a doctor here who can administer the IV, but the product is not available here.” Former President Donald Trump was given Regeneron, which has been approved by the Food and Drug Administration to treat mild to moderate COVID-19 symptoms, when he contracted the disease last year.
Ericksen missed more votes than any other state lawmaker during this year's legislative session, with some of his absences from legislative action happening while he was observing elections in El Salvador. At the time Ericksen said that trip was separate from consulting and lobbying work he does for the country of Cambodia. He registered as a foreign agent for his work for Cambodia in 2019, and the company he launched with former state Rep. Jay Rodne once had a $500,000 contract with the country’s government. Reasons for his current visit weren’t clear.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says people should be fully vaccinated before visiting El Salvador where the current levels of COVID-19 are “high.” Smith said he wasn't sure if Ericksen has been vaccinated. Ericksen has been vocal in his opposition to Democratic Gov. Jay Inslee's requirement that thousands of workers in Washington prove they’ve been fully vaccinated for COVID-19 or seek exemptions in order to keep their jobs and has called for Inslee's resignation.
Ericksen’s 42nd District colleagues, state Rep. Alicia Rule, D-Blaine, and state Rep. Sharon Shewmake, D-Bellingham, expressed their concern in text messages to the newspaper. “COVID-19 is not something you want anyone to get and I hope he makes a full recovery,” Shewmake said.
www.bellinghamherald.com/news/article255778496.html#storylink=cpy
Perhaps PBers of various persuasions (including the curably sane) could stage an al fresco meet-up and shout-off somewhere in the mean streets of Sidcup? Or the even meaner byways of Old Bexley?
They almost always are as the turnout is much lower. And folk know they can cast protest votes (or even vote heart rather than head) more safely.
Will be a Con hold with a much reduced vote share.
Any sign of any LD effort, or is the unspoken agreement go?
I have bet accordingly.
Late last night (Mon) the WA State Redistricting Commission, comprising 2 from each major party plus non-voting chair, announced that it had reached agreement on new congressional and legislative district maps. A "press availability" was scheduled for 10am today (Tue) to brief the media, observers and (last but not least) voters. “Great job, everybody. Congratulations,” were the words of the commission's chair upon adjourning the meeting.
HOWEVER, this purported vote on a purported agreement on a purported set of redistricting plans took place AFTER the statutory midnight November 15 deadline.
This morning, the commission's website announced the 10am briefing was cancelled.
And just hours later, the commission released the following statement
"Last night, after substantial work marked by mutual respect and dedication to the important task, the four voting commissioners on the state redistricting commission were unable to adopt a districting plan by the midnight deadline.
The late release of the 2020 census data combined with technical challenges hampered the commission's work considerably.
Pursuant to RCW 44.05.100, the Supreme Court now has jurisdiction to adopt a districting plan. The commissioners have every faith that the Supreme Court will draw maps that are fair and worthy of the people of Washington."
What???
My sources tell me these bozo (that is, commissioners) basically bungled their merry way through a last-minute, chaotic meeting, with the Democrats caving. Which a new congressional map VERY briefly posted on commission website this AM supports, as it was almost absurdly skewed in favor of the GOP.
However, the whole exercise has proven to be a massive waste of time, with the commission failing to do its sole job of drawing new maps on a non- (or at least bi-) partisan basis. For the first time since the commission was created in 1980s.
A pathetic showing - what a parcel of rogues for a commission!
Like Foxy I expect a Bexley Con hold though, but a reasonable swing to Labour.
Minor op tomorrow. With a General Anaesthetic. Ugh. Taxi at 6:30am.
Suggest that one or more well-endowed (fiscally speaking) among us finance a "PB Bottle Bus" for touring byelections (and next general election?).
Perfect way for PBers to tour the trenches in chateau comfort!
Best wishes.
Harry Cole
@MrHarryCole
Tricky to see how Douglas Ross, Ben Bradley, Dan Jarvis etc who all have big public jobs away from Westminster as an MSP, Council chief or Mayor will get past the Government's adoption of Standards Committee recommendation one: that they "prioritise" the Commons.
The Pensioner's Party
Andrew Adonis
@Andrew_Adonis
·
4h
This is what the cancellation of HS2 East means. So much for levelling up
https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1460701631520120845
Harry Cole
@MrHarryCole
·
2h
Tory anger at rail plans: "It’s a turd and the Treasury won't even give us the money to put any glitter on it."
I wondered if it was related to call centres (legitimate or otherwise) in India giving their staff English aliases. I've definitely spoken to a 'Kevin' more than once. Did it come from from that, I wonder?
On the by-election I can see a big vote for staying at home. What are the odds on turnout?
Nevertheless and notwithstanding - get well soonest!
Assigning English names is bad enough, but assigning a single English name to all is obviously worse.
She told her mother that the nuns had told her class it was too difficult for them to learn all the Chinese names of all their Chinese students. So they instructed the girls to go home, think about it overnight, and come back the next day having picked their Anglo name.
Her mom thought for a bit, then gave her daughter two alternatives: Bridget or Colleen. She chose the latter, as being easier prettier and easier to say. Must say, her mother was clearly no dummy; not only gave the little girl a choice of two options that were BOTH calculated to please the Irish sisters!
And Colleen was how the English-speaking world knew her for the next seventy-plus years.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m51uFnAh-yc
Would "Chardonnay" have been an equvalent for a woman? I've never seen it used like that, but I have never been in touch with places where female bullying happens.
Perhaps they were spinning it off Kevin Pietersen, who was treated as quite the outsider, and the allusions associating with South Africa?
"Karen" shows how a normal name can become a racist branding.
Don’t give up the day job. Unless your day job is a policy forecaster. In which case, do give it up.
https://www.thelocal.de/20211116/munich-cancels-christmas-market-over-dramatic-covid-surge/
Top Tories descend on by-election battleground as Boris Johnson's poll numbers tumble
Boris Johnson, Rishi Sunak and Theresa May have all visited Old Bexley and Sidcup ahead of a by-election next month - as the PM saw his poll lead trashed by sleaze accusations
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/top-tories-descend-election-battleground-25450732
Get to Shrewsbury on the train from New Street to Aberystwyth.
I’m in tomorrow morning for something minor, really hate hospitals.
Hope it goes well, Mr. W, and Mr. Sandpit.
This is up from the 2.9% growth in year to September 2021 http://ow.ly/FMPx50GPuGk
https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1460865611639271424?s=20
Well, what with second (and, I believe, on occasion third' jobs and the furore over cricket there's plenty for the papers to get their teeth into.
The Essex supporters site is quite supportive of those who are complaining, although does wonder if some of the puddings are rather over-egged.
There was also a Vince; not sure what his real name was.
There was a good sketch in Goodness Gracious Me on the subject of names:
https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x7sr3t
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/17/nazis-based-their-elite-schools-on-top-british-private-schools
Nazis based their elite schools on top British private schools
Eton and Harrow among those whose ‘character-building’ qualities were admired by German educators in 1930s and 1940s
Significantly negative RIR for the coming year!
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kevinism
Doris:
1904: #3
1914: #3
1924: #7
1934: #33
1944: #99
1954 onwards - out of the top 100
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/livebirths/datasets/babynamesenglandandwalestop100babynameshistoricaldata
Of course, in much of the British Isles, surnames, as we understand them now, are a comparatively recent invention. Does the same apply elsewhere in Europe?
There is something liberating in choosing your own name, but there is a world of difference between choosing and an enforced renaming.
(No criticism implied, though.)
Doris was my nom-de-plume on the old popbitch forum, for I was clearly an old witch due to knowing the “dark arts” of html
A long proud tradition of parties pulling off a stunning by-election win as a protest and then the previous party winning it back bigly at the next general election.
So setting aside whether Labour means "handout welfare culture" (as in UC? Paid mostly to decent working people?) or not, if people like Tory values and policies why does voting Tory bring those back? It just cements Johnsonist lunacy which is as far away from Tory values as you can get in a blue rosette.
The Bexley by-election candidate says he might just keep his job as a Mayfair-based fund manager if he gets elected because, don't worry, he's not a "career politician"
https://twitter.com/Tony_Diver/status/1460302579427119109
Of course cricket does someone assign people two names on the scoresheet (or even just one) rather than initials and surname. Seems ubiquitous for Pakistanis, Afghans and Bangladeshis, and some Indians, and they are usually known by the first of those two names (ie Azeem rather than Rafiq).
A Malaysian Chinese guy in a former job was known as Rodney Lee. His real name was I think Lee Eng Hua, Eng Hua Lee the English way round, but everyone called him Lee.
Europeans seem to all follow the given-name surname pattern. Hungarians use them the other way round, eg Bartok Bela. Russians still have patronymics as middle names and they are still used formally, eg Vladimir Vladimir'ich rather than Gospodin Putin (although I expect only a very close friend would call him Volodya).
We will make sure nothing like this ever happens again. But no one has done anything wrong
https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1460883124611600395