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For the Tories Bexle & Sidcup could not have come at a worse time – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited November 16 in General
For the Tories Bexle & Sidcup could not have come at a worse time – politicalbetting.com

Bloody love a by-election, me Great to help in Old Bexley and Sidcup this week for @danfrancis02 pic.twitter.com/xyyMP52QDk

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,975
    Test
  • Bexle?
  • Third like the Tories
  • EPGEPG Posts: 3,716
    I mean, they could be starting up another lockdown as is happening across the Irish sea, so it could be worse.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,516
    edited November 16
    From what I have seen there have been plenty of Tory activists in Old Bexley and Sidcup and I will likely go down on Sunday.

    Even on the swing from the recent Comres poll giving a 6% Labour lead (the worst of the current polls for the Tories), the Tories would still get 55% of the vote in Old Bexley and Sidcup with Labour on 31%.

    So hard to see anything other than a comfortable Conservative hold even if the Tory majority is down.

    Generally Conservative v Labour by election results reflect the national polls, only seats where the LDs are the main challengers tend to see swings bigger than the national average as they flood the seat with activists and are the natural party for midterm protest without going all the way to the other main party
  • FPT . . . speaking of Central America . . .

    Bellingham (WA) Herald - State lawmaker ill with COVID-19 in El Salvador

    State Sen. Doug Ericksen of Ferndale is sickened with COVID-19 in El Salvador and is unable to receive antibody drugs to treat it. Ericksen, a Republican who represents the 42nd District in Whatcom County, has reached out to legislative colleagues for advice on how to receive monoclonal antibodies, which are unavailable in that Latin American nation, his spokesman Erik Smith told The Bellingham Herald on Friday. In a message to members of the state House and Senate, Ericksen said he took a trip to El Salvador and tested positive for COVID-19 shortly after he arrived.

    Smith said members of the senator’s staff have been unable to reach Ericksen directly. “We have been unable to get ahold of Sen. Ericksen but we believe (the message) to be true,” Smith said.

    In his message to legislators, Ericksen said his condition was “to the point that I feel it would be beneficial for me to receive an IV or monoclonal antibodies (Regeneron). I have a doctor here who can administer the IV, but the product is not available here.” Former President Donald Trump was given Regeneron, which has been approved by the Food and Drug Administration to treat mild to moderate COVID-19 symptoms, when he contracted the disease last year.

    Ericksen missed more votes than any other state lawmaker during this year's legislative session, with some of his absences from legislative action happening while he was observing elections in El Salvador. At the time Ericksen said that trip was separate from consulting and lobbying work he does for the country of Cambodia. He registered as a foreign agent for his work for Cambodia in 2019, and the company he launched with former state Rep. Jay Rodne once had a $500,000 contract with the country’s government. Reasons for his current visit weren’t clear.

    The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says people should be fully vaccinated before visiting El Salvador where the current levels of COVID-19 are “high.” Smith said he wasn't sure if Ericksen has been vaccinated. Ericksen has been vocal in his opposition to Democratic Gov. Jay Inslee's requirement that thousands of workers in Washington prove they’ve been fully vaccinated for COVID-19 or seek exemptions in order to keep their jobs and has called for Inslee's resignation.

    Ericksen’s 42nd District colleagues, state Rep. Alicia Rule, D-Blaine, and state Rep. Sharon Shewmake, D-Bellingham, expressed their concern in text messages to the newspaper. “COVID-19 is not something you want anyone to get and I hope he makes a full recovery,” Shewmake said.

    www.bellinghamherald.com/news/article255778496.html#storylink=cpy
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,854
    It would be amazing if Labour even get close to winning Old Bexley & Sidcup given the demographics.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,609
    Andy_JS said:

    It would be amazing if Labour even get close to winning Old Bexley & Sidcup given the demographics.

    I think both by-elections are Conservative holds on reduced majorities.
  • HYUFD said:

    From what I have seen there have been plenty of Tory activists in Old Bexley and Sidcup and I will likely go down on Sunday.

    Even on the swing from the recent Comres poll giving a 6% Labour lead (the worst of the current polls for the Tories), the Tories would still get 55% of the vote in Old Bexley and Sidcup with Labour on 31%.

    So hard to see anything other than a comfortable Conservative hold even if the Tory majority is down.

    Generally Conservative v Labour by election results reflect the national polls, only seats where the LDs are the main challengers tend to see swings bigger than the national average as they flood the seat with activists and are the natural party for midterm protest without going all the way to the other main party

    Please give us report(s) from the field. Will await your dispatches with semi-bated breath.

    Perhaps PBers of various persuasions (including the curably sane) could stage an al fresco meet-up and shout-off somewhere in the mean streets of Sidcup? Or the even meaner byways of Old Bexley?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,501
    Why do folk still say reduced majority for by elections?
    They almost always are as the turnout is much lower. And folk know they can cast protest votes (or even vote heart rather than head) more safely.
    Will be a Con hold with a much reduced vote share.
    Any sign of any LD effort, or is the unspoken agreement go?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,854
    dixiedean said:

    Why do folk still say reduced majority for by elections?
    They almost always are as the turnout is much lower. And folk know they can cast protest votes (or even vote heart rather than head) more safely.
    Will be a Con hold with a much reduced vote share.
    Any sign of any LD effort, or is the unspoken agreement go?

    Depends whether they're talking about percentage majority or actual majority in votes.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 1,274
    LAB have a sniff but the electorate is largely comprised of decent working class and middle class people who work and who don't value the LAB handout welfare culture. So CON hold but not by much and acknowledging a lot of unhappiness with the government.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,609
    dixiedean said:

    Why do folk still say reduced majority for by elections?
    They almost always are as the turnout is much lower. And folk know they can cast protest votes (or even vote heart rather than head) more safely.
    Will be a Con hold with a much reduced vote share.
    Any sign of any LD effort, or is the unspoken agreement go?

    I meant reduced majorities in percentage terms, in nominal terms they are almost always down in by elections.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,633
    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    It would be amazing if Labour even get close to winning Old Bexley & Sidcup given the demographics.

    I think both by-elections are Conservative holds on reduced majorities.
    Shropshire N is a surprise Lib win imho

    I have bet accordingly.

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,501
    Andy_JS said:

    dixiedean said:

    Why do folk still say reduced majority for by elections?
    They almost always are as the turnout is much lower. And folk know they can cast protest votes (or even vote heart rather than head) more safely.
    Will be a Con hold with a much reduced vote share.
    Any sign of any LD effort, or is the unspoken agreement go?

    Depends whether they're talking about percentage majority or actual majority in votes.
    It's usually both tbf.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 1,274
    EPG said:

    I mean, they could be starting up another lockdown as is happening across the Irish sea, so it could be worse.

    Will be here in Dec. Make the most of going out now. I hope @Leon went to the pop concert he mentioned earlier.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759
    Sadly a long way from a Leicester East by-election, if indeed we get it, which may well be more interesting (though perhaps not results wise). Perhaps we'll get lucky here though.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 1,274

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    It would be amazing if Labour even get close to winning Old Bexley & Sidcup given the demographics.

    I think both by-elections are Conservative holds on reduced majorities.
    Shropshire N is a surprise Lib win imho

    I have bet accordingly.

    Just possible. LD last won there in 1906. But I have seen stranger in a by election. I assess as 20-1 hope you got on that or better. DYOR
  • WA State Redistricting Commission 2021 . . . To Be . . . Then Not To Be . . .

    Late last night (Mon) the WA State Redistricting Commission, comprising 2 from each major party plus non-voting chair, announced that it had reached agreement on new congressional and legislative district maps. A "press availability" was scheduled for 10am today (Tue) to brief the media, observers and (last but not least) voters. “Great job, everybody. Congratulations,” were the words of the commission's chair upon adjourning the meeting.

    HOWEVER, this purported vote on a purported agreement on a purported set of redistricting plans took place AFTER the statutory midnight November 15 deadline.

    This morning, the commission's website announced the 10am briefing was cancelled.

    And just hours later, the commission released the following statement

    "Last night, after substantial work marked by mutual respect and dedication to the important task, the four voting commissioners on the state redistricting commission were unable to adopt a districting plan by the midnight deadline.

    The late release of the 2020 census data combined with technical challenges hampered the commission's work considerably.

    Pursuant to RCW 44.05.100, the Supreme Court now has jurisdiction to adopt a districting plan. The commissioners have every faith that the Supreme Court will draw maps that are fair and worthy of the people of Washington."

    What???

    My sources tell me these bozo (that is, commissioners) basically bungled their merry way through a last-minute, chaotic meeting, with the Democrats caving. Which a new congressional map VERY briefly posted on commission website this AM supports, as it was almost absurdly skewed in favor of the GOP.

    However, the whole exercise has proven to be a massive waste of time, with the commission failing to do its sole job of drawing new maps on a non- (or at least bi-) partisan basis. For the first time since the commission was created in 1980s.

    A pathetic showing - what a parcel of rogues for a commission!
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,454
    I get the impression that Labour is making an effort here but not so much in North Shropshire, and the LibDems the reverse. Not based on much, but I'm getting WhatsApp messages urging me to Bexley, and nobody's mentioned Shropshire at all. As a Lomdoner at heart I know how to get to Bexley, whereas tbh I couldn't find Shropshire on a map without help. Er, NW Midlands or something?

    Like Foxy I expect a Bexley Con hold though, but a reasonable swing to Labour.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 1,274

    I get the impression that Labour is making an effort here but not so much in North Shropshire, and the LibDems the reverse. Not based on much, but I'm getting WhatsApp messages urging me to Bexley, and nobody's mentioned Shropshire at all. As a Lomdoner at heart I know how to get to Bexley, whereas tbh I couldn't find Shropshire on a map without help. Er, NW Midlands or something?

    Like Foxy I expect a Bexley Con hold though, but a reasonable swing to Labour.

    Go to Euston. Train to Wolverhampton then local service to Shrewsbury. I think Shropshire N might be Oswestry under another name so get a cab from Shrewsbury 👍
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,829
    Thanks for the header, Mike.

    Minor op tomorrow. With a General Anaesthetic. Ugh. Taxi at 6:30am.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759

    WA State Redistricting Commission 2021 . . . To Be . . . Then Not To Be . . .

    Late last night (Mon) the WA State Redistricting Commission, comprising 2 from each major party plus non-voting chair, announced that it had reached agreement on new congressional and legislative district maps. A "press availability" was scheduled for 10am today (Tue) to brief the media, observers and (last but not least) voters. “Great job, everybody. Congratulations,” were the words of the commission's chair upon adjourning the meeting.

    HOWEVER, this purported vote on a purported agreement on a purported set of redistricting plans took place AFTER the statutory midnight November 15 deadline.

    This morning, the commission's website announced the 10am briefing was cancelled.

    And just hours later, the commission released the following statement

    "Last night, after substantial work marked by mutual respect and dedication to the important task, the four voting commissioners on the state redistricting commission were unable to adopt a districting plan by the midnight deadline.

    The late release of the 2020 census data combined with technical challenges hampered the commission's work considerably.

    Pursuant to RCW 44.05.100, the Supreme Court now has jurisdiction to adopt a districting plan. The commissioners have every faith that the Supreme Court will draw maps that are fair and worthy of the people of Washington."

    What???

    My sources tell me these bozo (that is, commissioners) basically bungled their merry way through a last-minute, chaotic meeting, with the Democrats caving. Which a new congressional map VERY briefly posted on commission website this AM supports, as it was almost absurdly skewed in favor of the GOP.

    However, the whole exercise has proven to be a massive waste of time, with the commission failing to do its sole job of drawing new maps on a non- (or at least bi-) partisan basis. For the first time since the commission was created in 1980s.

    A pathetic showing - what a parcel of rogues for a commission!

    God I'm glad we only really have to worry about Parliamentary seats (yes, parties do make representations on local authority seat reviews, but it's not equivalent to the importance of a State).
  • Modest proposal.

    Suggest that one or more well-endowed (fiscally speaking) among us finance a "PB Bottle Bus" for touring byelections (and next general election?).

    Perfect way for PBers to tour the trenches in chateau comfort!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,854

    I get the impression that Labour is making an effort here but not so much in North Shropshire, and the LibDems the reverse. Not based on much, but I'm getting WhatsApp messages urging me to Bexley, and nobody's mentioned Shropshire at all. As a Lomdoner at heart I know how to get to Bexley, whereas tbh I couldn't find Shropshire on a map without help. Er, NW Midlands or something?

    Like Foxy I expect a Bexley Con hold though, but a reasonable swing to Labour.

    There seems to be a distinct lack of train stations in the North Shropshire constituency. Oswestry hasn't had one since 1966. Wem does have one though. 90 mins from Euston to Crewe, and 35 mins to Wem.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 1,274
    MattW said:

    Thanks for the header, Mike.

    Minor op tomorrow. With a General Anaesthetic. Ugh. Taxi at 6:30am.

    Good luck tomorrow Matt 👍
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 1,274
    Andy_JS said:

    I get the impression that Labour is making an effort here but not so much in North Shropshire, and the LibDems the reverse. Not based on much, but I'm getting WhatsApp messages urging me to Bexley, and nobody's mentioned Shropshire at all. As a Lomdoner at heart I know how to get to Bexley, whereas tbh I couldn't find Shropshire on a map without help. Er, NW Midlands or something?

    Like Foxy I expect a Bexley Con hold though, but a reasonable swing to Labour.

    There seems to be a distinct lack of train stations in the North Shropshire constituency. Oswestry hasn't had one since 1966. Wem does have one though. 90 mins from Euston to Crewe, and 35 mins to Wem.
    Nasty LAB government brought in so many rail closures 1964 to 1970 😡
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,307

    LAB have a sniff but the electorate is largely comprised of decent working class and middle class people who work and who don't value the LAB handout welfare culture. So CON hold but not by much and acknowledging a lot of unhappiness with the government.

    The Labour voters I know tend to be perfectly decent people and not interested in handouts either.
    Same is true of all the other parties too.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,501
    MattW said:

    Thanks for the header, Mike.

    Minor op tomorrow. With a General Anaesthetic. Ugh. Taxi at 6:30am.

    Another case for a "conmisserations" button.
    Best wishes.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,633

    Harry Cole
    @MrHarryCole
    Tricky to see how Douglas Ross, Ben Bradley, Dan Jarvis etc who all have big public jobs away from Westminster as an MSP, Council chief or Mayor will get past the Government's adoption of Standards Committee recommendation one: that they "prioritise" the Commons.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,454
    MattW said:

    Thanks for the header, Mike.

    Minor op tomorrow. With a General Anaesthetic. Ugh. Taxi at 6:30am.

    All the very best, see you back here soon!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759
    Farooq said:

    LAB have a sniff but the electorate is largely comprised of decent working class and middle class people who work and who don't value the LAB handout welfare culture. So CON hold but not by much and acknowledging a lot of unhappiness with the government.

    The Labour voters I know tend to be perfectly decent people and not interested in handouts either.
    Same is true of all the other parties too.
    This party might like handouts? :)

    The Pensioner's Party
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,633
    A minister drowns in the Lords thanks to another Johnson u-turn (or pack of lies as it is known in the trade). This time his 2019 promises over HS2 and NE:



    Andrew Adonis
    @Andrew_Adonis
    ·
    4h
    This is what the cancellation of HS2 East means. So much for levelling up

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1460701631520120845
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,633

    Harry Cole
    @MrHarryCole
    ·
    2h
    Tory anger at rail plans: "It’s a turd and the Treasury won't even give us the money to put any glitter on it."
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 1,695
    edited November 17
    Has anyone managed to work out this 'Kevin' thing? I haven't seen any definitive explanation.

    I wondered if it was related to call centres (legitimate or otherwise) in India giving their staff English aliases. I've definitely spoken to a 'Kevin' more than once. Did it come from from that, I wonder?


    On the by-election I can see a big vote for staying at home. What are the odds on turnout?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,361
    MattW said:

    Thanks for the header, Mike.

    Minor op tomorrow. With a General Anaesthetic. Ugh. Taxi at 6:30am.

    Good luck.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,307

    Has anyone managed to work out this 'Kevin' thing? I haven't seen any definitive explanation.

    I wondered if it was related to call centres (legitimate or otherwise) in India giving their staff English aliases. I've definitely spoken to a 'Kevin' more than once. Did it come from from that, I wonder?


    On the by-election I can see a big vote for staying at home. What are the odds on turnout?

    A summary that isn't hard to understand here:
    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/nov/16/campaigners-warn-over-kevin-nickname-reported-by-azeem-rafiq
  • MattW said:

    Thanks for the header, Mike.

    Minor op tomorrow. With a General Anaesthetic. Ugh. Taxi at 6:30am.

    No rest for the wicked, eh?

    Nevertheless and notwithstanding - get well soonest!
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 1,695
    edited November 17
    Farooq said:

    Has anyone managed to work out this 'Kevin' thing? I haven't seen any definitive explanation.

    I wondered if it was related to call centres (legitimate or otherwise) in India giving their staff English aliases. I've definitely spoken to a 'Kevin' more than once. Did it come from from that, I wonder?


    On the by-election I can see a big vote for staying at home. What are the odds on turnout?

    A summary that isn't hard to understand here:
    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/nov/16/campaigners-warn-over-kevin-nickname-reported-by-azeem-rafiq
    It doesn't say why 'Kevin' specifically. Maybe there was no particular reason.

    Assigning English names is bad enough, but assigning a single English name to all is obviously worse.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,854

    Has anyone managed to work out this 'Kevin' thing? I haven't seen any definitive explanation.

    I wondered if it was related to call centres (legitimate or otherwise) in India giving their staff English aliases. I've definitely spoken to a 'Kevin' more than once. Did it come from from that, I wonder?


    On the by-election I can see a big vote for staying at home. What are the odds on turnout?

    It's likely to be around 40% IMO.
  • Farooq said:

    Has anyone managed to work out this 'Kevin' thing? I haven't seen any definitive explanation.

    I wondered if it was related to call centres (legitimate or otherwise) in India giving their staff English aliases. I've definitely spoken to a 'Kevin' more than once. Did it come from from that, I wonder?


    On the by-election I can see a big vote for staying at home. What are the odds on turnout?

    A summary that isn't hard to understand here:
    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/nov/16/campaigners-warn-over-kevin-nickname-reported-by-azeem-rafiq
    It doesn't say why 'Kevin' specifically. Maybe there was no particular reason.

    Assigning English names is bad enough, but assigning a single English name to all is obviously worse.
    Dear friend of mine who recently passed away, a little old Chinese American lady originally from Hong Kong, came back from her first day at her new school, which was run by English-speaking Irish nuns.

    She told her mother that the nuns had told her class it was too difficult for them to learn all the Chinese names of all their Chinese students. So they instructed the girls to go home, think about it overnight, and come back the next day having picked their Anglo name.

    Her mom thought for a bit, then gave her daughter two alternatives: Bridget or Colleen. She chose the latter, as being easier prettier and easier to say. Must say, her mother was clearly no dummy; not only gave the little girl a choice of two options that were BOTH calculated to please the Irish sisters!

    And Colleen was how the English-speaking world knew her for the next seventy-plus years.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,829
    edited November 17

    Farooq said:

    Has anyone managed to work out this 'Kevin' thing? I haven't seen any definitive explanation.

    I wondered if it was related to call centres (legitimate or otherwise) in India giving their staff English aliases. I've definitely spoken to a 'Kevin' more than once. Did it come from from that, I wonder?


    On the by-election I can see a big vote for staying at home. What are the odds on turnout?

    A summary that isn't hard to understand here:
    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/nov/16/campaigners-warn-over-kevin-nickname-reported-by-azeem-rafiq
    It doesn't say why 'Kevin' specifically. Maybe there was no particular reason.

    Assigning English names is bad enough, but assigning a single English name to all is obviously worse.
    What dates are we talking about with Rafiq's citation? I make it the late noughties. At that time there was a comedy character on the BBC called Kevin the Teenager that would fit for perceived horse-play amongst young men, that is perhaps insidious - recalcitrant and generally vile. Making that a nickname could have an impact in making someone feel an outsider.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m51uFnAh-yc

    Would "Chardonnay" have been an equvalent for a woman? I've never seen it used like that, but I have never been in touch with places where female bullying happens.

    Perhaps they were spinning it off Kevin Pietersen, who was treated as quite the outsider, and the allusions associating with South Africa?

    "Karen" shows how a normal name can become a racist branding.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 11,163

    EPG said:

    I mean, they could be starting up another lockdown as is happening across the Irish sea, so it could be worse.

    Will be here in Dec. Make the most of going out now. I hope @Leon went to the pop concert he mentioned earlier.
    Another prediction from you, to go along with March’s “pubs won’t open outdoors in April - not viable” and “100,000 cases within a week” - that you posted in June.

    Don’t give up the day job. Unless your day job is a policy forecaster. In which case, do give it up.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,103

    EPG said:

    I mean, they could be starting up another lockdown as is happening across the Irish sea, so it could be worse.

    Will be here in Dec. Make the most of going out now. I hope @Leon went to the pop concert he mentioned earlier.
    Another prediction from you, to go along with March’s “pubs won’t open outdoors in April - not viable” and “100,000 cases within a week” - that you posted in June.

    Don’t give up the day job. Unless your day job is a policy forecaster. In which case, do give it up.
    The dynamic that really isn't understood is that there is absolutely no political support within Parliament for another lockdown. So it won't be happening.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,854
    "Munich cancels Christmas market over ‘dramatic’ Covid surge"

    https://www.thelocal.de/20211116/munich-cancels-christmas-market-over-dramatic-covid-surge/
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,829
    MattW said:

    Farooq said:

    Has anyone managed to work out this 'Kevin' thing? I haven't seen any definitive explanation.

    I wondered if it was related to call centres (legitimate or otherwise) in India giving their staff English aliases. I've definitely spoken to a 'Kevin' more than once. Did it come from from that, I wonder?


    On the by-election I can see a big vote for staying at home. What are the odds on turnout?

    A summary that isn't hard to understand here:
    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/nov/16/campaigners-warn-over-kevin-nickname-reported-by-azeem-rafiq
    It doesn't say why 'Kevin' specifically. Maybe there was no particular reason.

    Assigning English names is bad enough, but assigning a single English name to all is obviously worse.
    What dates are we talking about with Rafiq's citation? I make it the late noughties. At that time there was a comedy character on the BBC called Kevin the Teenager that would fit for perceived horse-play amongst young men, that is perhaps insidious - recalcitrant and generally vile. Making that a nickname could have an impact in making someone feel an outsider.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m51uFnAh-yc

    Would "Chardonnay" have been an equvalent for a woman? I've never seen it used like that, but I have never been in touch with places where female bullying happens.

    Perhaps they were spinning it off Kevin Pietersen, who was treated as quite the outsider, and the allusions associating with South Africa?

    "Karen" shows how a normal name can become a racist branding.
    And let's be clear - it is exactly the same as the constant demonisation technique used by the trans campaigners on the lecturer at Sussex University.
  • Farooq said:

    Has anyone managed to work out this 'Kevin' thing? I haven't seen any definitive explanation.

    I wondered if it was related to call centres (legitimate or otherwise) in India giving their staff English aliases. I've definitely spoken to a 'Kevin' more than once. Did it come from from that, I wonder?


    On the by-election I can see a big vote for staying at home. What are the odds on turnout?

    A summary that isn't hard to understand here:
    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/nov/16/campaigners-warn-over-kevin-nickname-reported-by-azeem-rafiq
    It doesn't say why 'Kevin' specifically. Maybe there was no particular reason.

    Assigning English names is bad enough, but assigning a single English name to all is obviously worse.
    Dear friend of mine who recently passed away, a little old Chinese American lady originally from Hong Kong, came back from her first day at her new school, which was run by English-speaking Irish nuns.

    She told her mother that the nuns had told her class it was too difficult for them to learn all the Chinese names of all their Chinese students. So they instructed the girls to go home, think about it overnight, and come back the next day having picked their Anglo name.

    Her mom thought for a bit, then gave her daughter two alternatives: Bridget or Colleen. She chose the latter, as being easier prettier and easier to say. Must say, her mother was clearly no dummy; not only gave the little girl a choice of two options that were BOTH calculated to please the Irish sisters!

    And Colleen was how the English-speaking world knew her for the next seventy-plus years.
    aiui this is standard practice in Hong Kong and not linked to either nuns or racism, rather teaching English.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,023
    Andy_JS said:

    Has anyone managed to work out this 'Kevin' thing? I haven't seen any definitive explanation.

    I wondered if it was related to call centres (legitimate or otherwise) in India giving their staff English aliases. I've definitely spoken to a 'Kevin' more than once. Did it come from from that, I wonder?


    On the by-election I can see a big vote for staying at home. What are the odds on turnout?

    It's likely to be around 40% IMO.
    Sounds about right, 40 in B&S, whilst 50% in Shrops North..... shame there's not a market
  • Tory heavyweights have visited Old Bexley and Sidcup, according to the Mirror at the weekend.

    Top Tories descend on by-election battleground as Boris Johnson's poll numbers tumble
    Boris Johnson, Rishi Sunak and Theresa May have all visited Old Bexley and Sidcup ahead of a by-election next month - as the PM saw his poll lead trashed by sleaze accusations

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/top-tories-descend-election-battleground-25450732

  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 4,836
    edited November 17
    MattW said:

    Farooq said:

    Has anyone managed to work out this 'Kevin' thing? I haven't seen any definitive explanation.

    I wondered if it was related to call centres (legitimate or otherwise) in India giving their staff English aliases. I've definitely spoken to a 'Kevin' more than once. Did it come from from that, I wonder?


    On the by-election I can see a big vote for staying at home. What are the odds on turnout?

    A summary that isn't hard to understand here:
    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/nov/16/campaigners-warn-over-kevin-nickname-reported-by-azeem-rafiq
    It doesn't say why 'Kevin' specifically. Maybe there was no particular reason.

    Assigning English names is bad enough, but assigning a single English name to all is obviously worse.
    What dates are we talking about with Rafiq's citation? I make it the late noughties. At that time there was a comedy character on the BBC called Kevin the Teenager that would fit for perceived horse-play amongst young men, that is perhaps insidious - recalcitrant and generally vile. Making that a nickname could have an impact in making someone feel an outsider.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m51uFnAh-yc

    Would "Chardonnay" have been an equvalent for a woman? I've never seen it used like that, but I have never been in touch with places where female bullying happens.

    Perhaps they were spinning it off Kevin Pietersen, who was treated as quite the outsider, and the allusions associating with South Africa?

    "Karen" shows how a normal name can become a racist branding.
    In the early 1990's particularly, I remember that "Kevin and Sharon" were commonly used among younger people as derogatory working-class stereotypes. Harry Enfield's "Kevin The Teenager" character followed on sightly after that.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,992

    I get the impression that Labour is making an effort here but not so much in North Shropshire, and the LibDems the reverse. Not based on much, but I'm getting WhatsApp messages urging me to Bexley, and nobody's mentioned Shropshire at all. As a Lomdoner at heart I know how to get to Bexley, whereas tbh I couldn't find Shropshire on a map without help. Er, NW Midlands or something?

    Like Foxy I expect a Bexley Con hold though, but a reasonable swing to Labour.

    Shropshire is the bit between Birmingham and Wales. ;)

    Get to Shrewsbury on the train from New Street to Aberystwyth.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 6,638

    HYUFD said:

    From what I have seen there have been plenty of Tory activists in Old Bexley and Sidcup and I will likely go down on Sunday.

    Even on the swing from the recent Comres poll giving a 6% Labour lead (the worst of the current polls for the Tories), the Tories would still get 55% of the vote in Old Bexley and Sidcup with Labour on 31%.

    So hard to see anything other than a comfortable Conservative hold even if the Tory majority is down.

    Generally Conservative v Labour by election results reflect the national polls, only seats where the LDs are the main challengers tend to see swings bigger than the national average as they flood the seat with activists and are the natural party for midterm protest without going all the way to the other main party

    Please give us report(s) from the field. Will await your dispatches with semi-bated breath.

    Perhaps PBers of various persuasions (including the curably sane) could stage an al fresco meet-up and shout-off somewhere in the mean streets of Sidcup? Or the even meaner byways of Old Bexley?
    Where’s New Bexley?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,992
    MattW said:

    Thanks for the header, Mike.

    Minor op tomorrow. With a General Anaesthetic. Ugh. Taxi at 6:30am.

    Good luck this morning!

    I’m in tomorrow morning for something minor, really hate hospitals.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,564
    Sandpit said:

    I get the impression that Labour is making an effort here but not so much in North Shropshire, and the LibDems the reverse. Not based on much, but I'm getting WhatsApp messages urging me to Bexley, and nobody's mentioned Shropshire at all. As a Lomdoner at heart I know how to get to Bexley, whereas tbh I couldn't find Shropshire on a map without help. Er, NW Midlands or something?

    Like Foxy I expect a Bexley Con hold though, but a reasonable swing to Labour.

    Shropshire is the bit between Birmingham and Wales. ;)

    Get to Shrewsbury on the train from New Street to Aberystwyth.
    Nick unwittingly illustrates Labour’s problem!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,022
    The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs grew 3.8% in the year to October 2021.

    This is up from the 2.9% growth in year to September 2021 http://ow.ly/FMPx50GPuGk


    https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1460865611639271424?s=20
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,564
    CPI now 4.2%
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,228
    edited November 17
    Sandpit said:

    I get the impression that Labour is making an effort here but not so much in North Shropshire, and the LibDems the reverse. Not based on much, but I'm getting WhatsApp messages urging me to Bexley, and nobody's mentioned Shropshire at all. As a Lomdoner at heart I know how to get to Bexley, whereas tbh I couldn't find Shropshire on a map without help. Er, NW Midlands or something?

    Like Foxy I expect a Bexley Con hold though, but a reasonable swing to Labour.

    Shropshire is the bit between Birmingham and Wales. ;)

    Get to Shrewsbury on the train from New Street to Aberystwyth.
    Or at Birmingham take the train to Holyhead and get off at Gobowen, which is actually in the constituency and just about within walking distance of Oswestry although I imagine most people take the bus.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,725

    The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs grew 3.8% in the year to October 2021.

    This is up from the 2.9% growth in year to September 2021 http://ow.ly/FMPx50GPuGk


    https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1460865611639271424?s=20

    Combined with the jobs figures, if the MPC don’t hike rates now they never will.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,236
    Good morning everyone.

    Well, what with second (and, I believe, on occasion third' jobs and the furore over cricket there's plenty for the papers to get their teeth into.
    The Essex supporters site is quite supportive of those who are complaining, although does wonder if some of the puddings are rather over-egged.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,992

    Farooq said:

    Has anyone managed to work out this 'Kevin' thing? I haven't seen any definitive explanation.

    I wondered if it was related to call centres (legitimate or otherwise) in India giving their staff English aliases. I've definitely spoken to a 'Kevin' more than once. Did it come from from that, I wonder?


    On the by-election I can see a big vote for staying at home. What are the odds on turnout?

    A summary that isn't hard to understand here:
    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/nov/16/campaigners-warn-over-kevin-nickname-reported-by-azeem-rafiq
    It doesn't say why 'Kevin' specifically. Maybe there was no particular reason.

    Assigning English names is bad enough, but assigning a single English name to all is obviously worse.
    Dear friend of mine who recently passed away, a little old Chinese American lady originally from Hong Kong, came back from her first day at her new school, which was run by English-speaking Irish nuns.

    She told her mother that the nuns had told her class it was too difficult for them to learn all the Chinese names of all their Chinese students. So they instructed the girls to go home, think about it overnight, and come back the next day having picked their Anglo name.

    Her mom thought for a bit, then gave her daughter two alternatives: Bridget or Colleen. She chose the latter, as being easier prettier and easier to say. Must say, her mother was clearly no dummy; not only gave the little girl a choice of two options that were BOTH calculated to please the Irish sisters!

    And Colleen was how the English-speaking world knew her for the next seventy-plus years.
    That’s still surprisingly common among Chinese expatriates. I once worked at an hotel, where there were a number of Chinese staff and they all had Western names - so you’d get an email from ‘Lin Chi Han (Sophie). Marketing Executive, Asia’. Took a while to get used to it.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,581
    Sandpit said:

    Farooq said:

    Has anyone managed to work out this 'Kevin' thing? I haven't seen any definitive explanation.

    I wondered if it was related to call centres (legitimate or otherwise) in India giving their staff English aliases. I've definitely spoken to a 'Kevin' more than once. Did it come from from that, I wonder?


    On the by-election I can see a big vote for staying at home. What are the odds on turnout?

    A summary that isn't hard to understand here:
    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/nov/16/campaigners-warn-over-kevin-nickname-reported-by-azeem-rafiq
    It doesn't say why 'Kevin' specifically. Maybe there was no particular reason.

    Assigning English names is bad enough, but assigning a single English name to all is obviously worse.
    Dear friend of mine who recently passed away, a little old Chinese American lady originally from Hong Kong, came back from her first day at her new school, which was run by English-speaking Irish nuns.

    She told her mother that the nuns had told her class it was too difficult for them to learn all the Chinese names of all their Chinese students. So they instructed the girls to go home, think about it overnight, and come back the next day having picked their Anglo name.

    Her mom thought for a bit, then gave her daughter two alternatives: Bridget or Colleen. She chose the latter, as being easier prettier and easier to say. Must say, her mother was clearly no dummy; not only gave the little girl a choice of two options that were BOTH calculated to please the Irish sisters!

    And Colleen was how the English-speaking world knew her for the next seventy-plus years.
    That’s still surprisingly common among Chinese expatriates. I once worked at an hotel, where there were a number of Chinese staff and they all had Western names - so you’d get an email from ‘Lin Chi Han (Sophie). Marketing Executive, Asia’. Took a while to get used to it.
    Many of our Hong Kong students do this. I am currently supervising one who is called Jason to me, but something else to native speakers. No bother, as long as you know what they prefer to be called.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 57,370
    Mr. Tubbs, met a few Chinese students in primary and secondary school and they all had English names.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,022
    Sandpit said:

    Farooq said:

    Has anyone managed to work out this 'Kevin' thing? I haven't seen any definitive explanation.

    I wondered if it was related to call centres (legitimate or otherwise) in India giving their staff English aliases. I've definitely spoken to a 'Kevin' more than once. Did it come from from that, I wonder?


    On the by-election I can see a big vote for staying at home. What are the odds on turnout?

    A summary that isn't hard to understand here:
    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/nov/16/campaigners-warn-over-kevin-nickname-reported-by-azeem-rafiq
    It doesn't say why 'Kevin' specifically. Maybe there was no particular reason.

    Assigning English names is bad enough, but assigning a single English name to all is obviously worse.
    Dear friend of mine who recently passed away, a little old Chinese American lady originally from Hong Kong, came back from her first day at her new school, which was run by English-speaking Irish nuns.

    She told her mother that the nuns had told her class it was too difficult for them to learn all the Chinese names of all their Chinese students. So they instructed the girls to go home, think about it overnight, and come back the next day having picked their Anglo name.

    Her mom thought for a bit, then gave her daughter two alternatives: Bridget or Colleen. She chose the latter, as being easier prettier and easier to say. Must say, her mother was clearly no dummy; not only gave the little girl a choice of two options that were BOTH calculated to please the Irish sisters!

    And Colleen was how the English-speaking world knew her for the next seventy-plus years.
    That’s still surprisingly common among Chinese expatriates. I once worked at an hotel, where there were a number of Chinese staff and they all had Western names - so you’d get an email from ‘Lin Chi Han (Sophie). Marketing Executive, Asia’. Took a while to get used to it.
    My Indonesian ethnic Chinese secretary had chosen Doris.....
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,581

    Sandpit said:

    Farooq said:

    Has anyone managed to work out this 'Kevin' thing? I haven't seen any definitive explanation.

    I wondered if it was related to call centres (legitimate or otherwise) in India giving their staff English aliases. I've definitely spoken to a 'Kevin' more than once. Did it come from from that, I wonder?


    On the by-election I can see a big vote for staying at home. What are the odds on turnout?

    A summary that isn't hard to understand here:
    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/nov/16/campaigners-warn-over-kevin-nickname-reported-by-azeem-rafiq
    It doesn't say why 'Kevin' specifically. Maybe there was no particular reason.

    Assigning English names is bad enough, but assigning a single English name to all is obviously worse.
    Dear friend of mine who recently passed away, a little old Chinese American lady originally from Hong Kong, came back from her first day at her new school, which was run by English-speaking Irish nuns.

    She told her mother that the nuns had told her class it was too difficult for them to learn all the Chinese names of all their Chinese students. So they instructed the girls to go home, think about it overnight, and come back the next day having picked their Anglo name.

    Her mom thought for a bit, then gave her daughter two alternatives: Bridget or Colleen. She chose the latter, as being easier prettier and easier to say. Must say, her mother was clearly no dummy; not only gave the little girl a choice of two options that were BOTH calculated to please the Irish sisters!

    And Colleen was how the English-speaking world knew her for the next seventy-plus years.
    That’s still surprisingly common among Chinese expatriates. I once worked at an hotel, where there were a number of Chinese staff and they all had Western names - so you’d get an email from ‘Lin Chi Han (Sophie). Marketing Executive, Asia’. Took a while to get used to it.
    My Indonesian ethnic Chinese secretary had chosen Doris.....
    One thing we get is the English names are often unusual or obscure.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,236
    edited November 17

    Sandpit said:

    Farooq said:

    Has anyone managed to work out this 'Kevin' thing? I haven't seen any definitive explanation.

    I wondered if it was related to call centres (legitimate or otherwise) in India giving their staff English aliases. I've definitely spoken to a 'Kevin' more than once. Did it come from from that, I wonder?


    On the by-election I can see a big vote for staying at home. What are the odds on turnout?

    A summary that isn't hard to understand here:
    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/nov/16/campaigners-warn-over-kevin-nickname-reported-by-azeem-rafiq
    It doesn't say why 'Kevin' specifically. Maybe there was no particular reason.

    Assigning English names is bad enough, but assigning a single English name to all is obviously worse.
    Dear friend of mine who recently passed away, a little old Chinese American lady originally from Hong Kong, came back from her first day at her new school, which was run by English-speaking Irish nuns.

    She told her mother that the nuns had told her class it was too difficult for them to learn all the Chinese names of all their Chinese students. So they instructed the girls to go home, think about it overnight, and come back the next day having picked their Anglo name.

    Her mom thought for a bit, then gave her daughter two alternatives: Bridget or Colleen. She chose the latter, as being easier prettier and easier to say. Must say, her mother was clearly no dummy; not only gave the little girl a choice of two options that were BOTH calculated to please the Irish sisters!

    And Colleen was how the English-speaking world knew her for the next seventy-plus years.
    That’s still surprisingly common among Chinese expatriates. I once worked at an hotel, where there were a number of Chinese staff and they all had Western names - so you’d get an email from ‘Lin Chi Han (Sophie). Marketing Executive, Asia’. Took a while to get used to it.
    My Indonesian ethnic Chinese secretary had chosen Doris.....
    Used to work with a Chinese chap known Doug. His email address gives a completely different name. And yes, I know it was his; he wrote out down for me!
    There was also a Vince; not sure what his real name was.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,888
    edited November 17
    IanB2 said:

    CPI now 4.2%

    Sigh. Up 1.1% in a month?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,609
    One thing that I have encountered is that in parts of India people have only one name. I have a colleague known as Kumar, or more formally Dr Kumar. This presented a problem in England as forms require a forename and a surname, so he had to invent one, and adopted his father's name as a forename. It was only after 10 years of working with him that he told me, so I had been misnaming for an embarrassingly long time.

    There was a good sketch in Goodness Gracious Me on the subject of names:

    https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x7sr3t

  • eekeek Posts: 15,853

    IanB2 said:

    CPI now 4.2%

    Sigh
    Hardly surprising given what happened to fuel prices in October.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,725
    Does this count as a Godwin?

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/17/nazis-based-their-elite-schools-on-top-british-private-schools

    Nazis based their elite schools on top British private schools
    Eton and Harrow among those whose ‘character-building’ qualities were admired by German educators in 1930s and 1940s
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,564

    IanB2 said:

    CPI now 4.2%

    Sigh. Up 1.1% in a month?
    The 'expert' predicted we'd top 5% in April and then supposedly it will fall back.

    Significantly negative RIR for the coming year!
  • kamskikamski Posts: 2,162

    Sandpit said:

    Farooq said:

    Has anyone managed to work out this 'Kevin' thing? I haven't seen any definitive explanation.

    I wondered if it was related to call centres (legitimate or otherwise) in India giving their staff English aliases. I've definitely spoken to a 'Kevin' more than once. Did it come from from that, I wonder?


    On the by-election I can see a big vote for staying at home. What are the odds on turnout?

    A summary that isn't hard to understand here:
    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/nov/16/campaigners-warn-over-kevin-nickname-reported-by-azeem-rafiq
    It doesn't say why 'Kevin' specifically. Maybe there was no particular reason.

    Assigning English names is bad enough, but assigning a single English name to all is obviously worse.
    Dear friend of mine who recently passed away, a little old Chinese American lady originally from Hong Kong, came back from her first day at her new school, which was run by English-speaking Irish nuns.

    She told her mother that the nuns had told her class it was too difficult for them to learn all the Chinese names of all their Chinese students. So they instructed the girls to go home, think about it overnight, and come back the next day having picked their Anglo name.

    Her mom thought for a bit, then gave her daughter two alternatives: Bridget or Colleen. She chose the latter, as being easier prettier and easier to say. Must say, her mother was clearly no dummy; not only gave the little girl a choice of two options that were BOTH calculated to please the Irish sisters!

    And Colleen was how the English-speaking world knew her for the next seventy-plus years.
    That’s still surprisingly common among Chinese expatriates. I once worked at an hotel, where there were a number of Chinese staff and they all had Western names - so you’d get an email from ‘Lin Chi Han (Sophie). Marketing Executive, Asia’. Took a while to get used to it.
    My Indonesian ethnic Chinese secretary had chosen Doris.....
    One thing we get is the English names are often unusual or obscure.
    Old-fashioned, I think, rather than deliberately obscure. Grace, Faith, Doris and so on would have been common a century ago.
    Maybe not relevant but "Kevin" is certainly used as a kind of insult in Germany:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kevinism
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,725

    IanB2 said:

    CPI now 4.2%

    Sigh. Up 1.1% in a month?
    1.1pp - more like 35%!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 52,022

    Sandpit said:

    Farooq said:

    Has anyone managed to work out this 'Kevin' thing? I haven't seen any definitive explanation.

    I wondered if it was related to call centres (legitimate or otherwise) in India giving their staff English aliases. I've definitely spoken to a 'Kevin' more than once. Did it come from from that, I wonder?


    On the by-election I can see a big vote for staying at home. What are the odds on turnout?

    A summary that isn't hard to understand here:
    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/nov/16/campaigners-warn-over-kevin-nickname-reported-by-azeem-rafiq
    It doesn't say why 'Kevin' specifically. Maybe there was no particular reason.

    Assigning English names is bad enough, but assigning a single English name to all is obviously worse.
    Dear friend of mine who recently passed away, a little old Chinese American lady originally from Hong Kong, came back from her first day at her new school, which was run by English-speaking Irish nuns.

    She told her mother that the nuns had told her class it was too difficult for them to learn all the Chinese names of all their Chinese students. So they instructed the girls to go home, think about it overnight, and come back the next day having picked their Anglo name.

    Her mom thought for a bit, then gave her daughter two alternatives: Bridget or Colleen. She chose the latter, as being easier prettier and easier to say. Must say, her mother was clearly no dummy; not only gave the little girl a choice of two options that were BOTH calculated to please the Irish sisters!

    And Colleen was how the English-speaking world knew her for the next seventy-plus years.
    That’s still surprisingly common among Chinese expatriates. I once worked at an hotel, where there were a number of Chinese staff and they all had Western names - so you’d get an email from ‘Lin Chi Han (Sophie). Marketing Executive, Asia’. Took a while to get used to it.
    My Indonesian ethnic Chinese secretary had chosen Doris.....
    One thing we get is the English names are often unusual or obscure.
    Old-fashioned, I think, rather than deliberately obscure. Grace, Faith, Doris and so on would have been common a century ago.
    Just so:

    Doris:
    1904: #3
    1914: #3
    1924: #7
    1934: #33
    1944: #99
    1954 onwards - out of the top 100

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/livebirths/datasets/babynamesenglandandwalestop100babynameshistoricaldata
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,236
    Foxy said:

    One thing that I have encountered is that in parts of India people have only one name. I have a colleague known as Kumar, or more formally Dr Kumar. This presented a problem in England as forms require a forename and a surname, so he had to invent one, and adopted his father's name as a forename. It was only after 10 years of working with him that he told me, so I had been misnaming for an embarrassingly long time.

    There was a good sketch in Goodness Gracious Me on the subject of names:

    https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x7sr3t

    Watching cricket one often sees different names on Indian or Pakistani players shirts from those on the scorecard, as a result of trying to fit people's names into 'our' cultural norm.
    Of course, in much of the British Isles, surnames, as we understand them now, are a comparatively recent invention. Does the same apply elsewhere in Europe?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 57,370
    King Cole, are they recent? Surnames have been around for centuries.

  • Harry Cole
    @MrHarryCole
    Tricky to see how Douglas Ross, Ben Bradley, Dan Jarvis etc who all have big public jobs away from Westminster as an MSP, Council chief or Mayor will get past the Government's adoption of Standards Committee recommendation one: that they "prioritise" the Commons.

    Ben Bradley the supposed MP for Mansfield officially declares that he works 60 hours a week in his two other jobs which includes being leader of Nottinghamshire County Council.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 196
    tlg86 said:

    The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs grew 3.8% in the year to October 2021.

    This is up from the 2.9% growth in year to September 2021 http://ow.ly/FMPx50GPuGk


    https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1460865611639271424?s=20

    Combined with the jobs figures, if the MPC don’t hike rates now they never will.
    The inflation index that used to be used, RPI, is up a whopping 6%...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,282
    Sandpit said:

    MattW said:

    Thanks for the header, Mike.

    Minor op tomorrow. With a General Anaesthetic. Ugh. Taxi at 6:30am.

    Good luck this morning!

    I’m in tomorrow morning for something minor, really hate hospitals.
    My brother, who is seriously ill, now has Covid. He almost certainly got it on his hospital trips since he doesn't go out otherwise. Hospitals are best stayed away from at the moment.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 57,370
    Mr. L, sorry to hear that. Hope he's ok.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,609
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    MattW said:

    Thanks for the header, Mike.

    Minor op tomorrow. With a General Anaesthetic. Ugh. Taxi at 6:30am.

    Good luck this morning!

    I’m in tomorrow morning for something minor, really hate hospitals.
    My brother, who is seriously ill, now has Covid. He almost certainly got it on his hospital trips since he doesn't go out otherwise. Hospitals are best stayed away from at the moment.
    Bit of a problem for me!
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 737
    Andy_JS said:

    I get the impression that Labour is making an effort here but not so much in North Shropshire, and the LibDems the reverse. Not based on much, but I'm getting WhatsApp messages urging me to Bexley, and nobody's mentioned Shropshire at all. As a Lomdoner at heart I know how to get to Bexley, whereas tbh I couldn't find Shropshire on a map without help. Er, NW Midlands or something?

    Like Foxy I expect a Bexley Con hold though, but a reasonable swing to Labour.

    There seems to be a distinct lack of train stations in the North Shropshire constituency. Oswestry hasn't had one since 1966. Wem does have one though. 90 mins from Euston to Crewe, and 35 mins to Wem.
    Or Whitchurch. 20 minutes from Crewe.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,081

    Sandpit said:

    Farooq said:

    Has anyone managed to work out this 'Kevin' thing? I haven't seen any definitive explanation.

    I wondered if it was related to call centres (legitimate or otherwise) in India giving their staff English aliases. I've definitely spoken to a 'Kevin' more than once. Did it come from from that, I wonder?


    On the by-election I can see a big vote for staying at home. What are the odds on turnout?

    A summary that isn't hard to understand here:
    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/nov/16/campaigners-warn-over-kevin-nickname-reported-by-azeem-rafiq
    It doesn't say why 'Kevin' specifically. Maybe there was no particular reason.

    Assigning English names is bad enough, but assigning a single English name to all is obviously worse.
    Dear friend of mine who recently passed away, a little old Chinese American lady originally from Hong Kong, came back from her first day at her new school, which was run by English-speaking Irish nuns.

    She told her mother that the nuns had told her class it was too difficult for them to learn all the Chinese names of all their Chinese students. So they instructed the girls to go home, think about it overnight, and come back the next day having picked their Anglo name.

    Her mom thought for a bit, then gave her daughter two alternatives: Bridget or Colleen. She chose the latter, as being easier prettier and easier to say. Must say, her mother was clearly no dummy; not only gave the little girl a choice of two options that were BOTH calculated to please the Irish sisters!

    And Colleen was how the English-speaking world knew her for the next seventy-plus years.
    That’s still surprisingly common among Chinese expatriates. I once worked at an hotel, where there were a number of Chinese staff and they all had Western names - so you’d get an email from ‘Lin Chi Han (Sophie). Marketing Executive, Asia’. Took a while to get used to it.
    Many of our Hong Kong students do this. I am currently supervising one who is called Jason to me, but something else to native speakers. No bother, as long as you know what they prefer to be called.
    My son did a bit of tutoring while at Imperial. The Chinese students were both surprised and pleased when he asked and learned their actual names.
    (No criticism implied, though.)
  • eekeek Posts: 15,853

    Sandpit said:

    Farooq said:

    Has anyone managed to work out this 'Kevin' thing? I haven't seen any definitive explanation.

    I wondered if it was related to call centres (legitimate or otherwise) in India giving their staff English aliases. I've definitely spoken to a 'Kevin' more than once. Did it come from from that, I wonder?


    On the by-election I can see a big vote for staying at home. What are the odds on turnout?

    A summary that isn't hard to understand here:
    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/nov/16/campaigners-warn-over-kevin-nickname-reported-by-azeem-rafiq
    It doesn't say why 'Kevin' specifically. Maybe there was no particular reason.

    Assigning English names is bad enough, but assigning a single English name to all is obviously worse.
    Dear friend of mine who recently passed away, a little old Chinese American lady originally from Hong Kong, came back from her first day at her new school, which was run by English-speaking Irish nuns.

    She told her mother that the nuns had told her class it was too difficult for them to learn all the Chinese names of all their Chinese students. So they instructed the girls to go home, think about it overnight, and come back the next day having picked their Anglo name.

    Her mom thought for a bit, then gave her daughter two alternatives: Bridget or Colleen. She chose the latter, as being easier prettier and easier to say. Must say, her mother was clearly no dummy; not only gave the little girl a choice of two options that were BOTH calculated to please the Irish sisters!

    And Colleen was how the English-speaking world knew her for the next seventy-plus years.
    That’s still surprisingly common among Chinese expatriates. I once worked at an hotel, where there were a number of Chinese staff and they all had Western names - so you’d get an email from ‘Lin Chi Han (Sophie). Marketing Executive, Asia’. Took a while to get used to it.
    My Indonesian ethnic Chinese secretary had chosen Doris.....
    One thing we get is the English names are often unusual or obscure.
    Old-fashioned, I think, rather than deliberately obscure. Grace, Faith, Doris and so on would have been common a century ago.
    Just so:

    Doris:
    1904: #3
    1914: #3
    1924: #7
    1934: #33
    1944: #99
    1954 onwards - out of the top 100

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/livebirths/datasets/babynamesenglandandwalestop100babynameshistoricaldata
    Grace is still around as a name - I know 2 different teenagers called Grace.

    Doris was my nom-de-plume on the old popbitch forum, for I was clearly an old witch due to knowing the “dark arts” of html
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 737
    tlg86 said:

    Does this count as a Godwin?

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/17/nazis-based-their-elite-schools-on-top-british-private-schools

    Nazis based their elite schools on top British private schools
    Eton and Harrow among those whose ‘character-building’ qualities were admired by German educators in 1930s and 1940s

    They particularly admired the institutional racism.
  • LAB have a sniff but the electorate is largely comprised of decent working class and middle class people who work and who don't value the LAB handout welfare culture. So CON hold but not by much and acknowledging a lot of unhappiness with the government.

    Thing is that if people vote Labour in this by-election they aren't voting in Labour policies or values. They're just reducing the Tory majority from large to large, in an attempt to bring it back from the stupid seat to do what they consider to be proper Tory policies again.

    A long proud tradition of parties pulling off a stunning by-election win as a protest and then the previous party winning it back bigly at the next general election.

    So setting aside whether Labour means "handout welfare culture" (as in UC? Paid mostly to decent working people?) or not, if people like Tory values and policies why does voting Tory bring those back? It just cements Johnsonist lunacy which is as far away from Tory values as you can get in a blue rosette.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 34,484
    MattW said:

    Thanks for the header, Mike.

    Minor op tomorrow. With a General Anaesthetic. Ugh. Taxi at 6:30am.

    Best wishes Matt
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,282
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    CPI now 4.2%

    Sigh. Up 1.1% in a month?
    The 'expert' predicted we'd top 5% in April and then supposedly it will fall back.

    Significantly negative RIR for the coming year!
    The bounce in inflation was inevitable given what was happening to oil prices, international dislocations and indeed salaries. Which, to me, made the decision to hold rates at 0.1% a week or so ago pretty inexplicable. I am really doubtful that we will see inflation fall as fast as the Bank is predicting, it has too wide a base.
  • I changed my betting position from Tory hold to Tory loss/Lab gain the other day because the Tory candidate is an utter bellend. Why would you say this during the current climate? No matter how many clarifications he issues these comments will be raised a lot by Labour.

    The Bexley by-election candidate says he might just keep his job as a Mayfair-based fund manager if he gets elected because, don't worry, he's not a "career politician"

    https://twitter.com/Tony_Diver/status/1460302579427119109
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 10,753
    edited November 17
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Farooq said:

    Has anyone managed to work out this 'Kevin' thing? I haven't seen any definitive explanation.

    I wondered if it was related to call centres (legitimate or otherwise) in India giving their staff English aliases. I've definitely spoken to a 'Kevin' more than once. Did it come from from that, I wonder?


    On the by-election I can see a big vote for staying at home. What are the odds on turnout?

    A summary that isn't hard to understand here:
    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/nov/16/campaigners-warn-over-kevin-nickname-reported-by-azeem-rafiq
    It doesn't say why 'Kevin' specifically. Maybe there was no particular reason.

    Assigning English names is bad enough, but assigning a single English name to all is obviously worse.
    Dear friend of mine who recently passed away, a little old Chinese American lady originally from Hong Kong, came back from her first day at her new school, which was run by English-speaking Irish nuns.

    She told her mother that the nuns had told her class it was too difficult for them to learn all the Chinese names of all their Chinese students. So they instructed the girls to go home, think about it overnight, and come back the next day having picked their Anglo name.

    Her mom thought for a bit, then gave her daughter two alternatives: Bridget or Colleen. She chose the latter, as being easier prettier and easier to say. Must say, her mother was clearly no dummy; not only gave the little girl a choice of two options that were BOTH calculated to please the Irish sisters!

    And Colleen was how the English-speaking world knew her for the next seventy-plus years.
    That’s still surprisingly common among Chinese expatriates. I once worked at an hotel, where there were a number of Chinese staff and they all had Western names - so you’d get an email from ‘Lin Chi Han (Sophie). Marketing Executive, Asia’. Took a while to get used to it.
    Many of our Hong Kong students do this. I am currently supervising one who is called Jason to me, but something else to native speakers. No bother, as long as you know what they prefer to be called.
    My son did a bit of tutoring while at Imperial. The Chinese students were both surprised and pleased when he asked and learned their actual names.
    (No criticism implied, though.)
    One does wonder if the practice will survive the twin challenges of President Xi's Chinese nationalism and well-meaning (and, separately) woke Westerners telling them Chinese names are best. A bit like how we worry about using Mumbai and Uluru but don't give a thought to London being called Londres or indeed calling Roma Rome. A Boris by any other name...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 57,370
    Mr. Eagles, sounds about as sensible as not buying new shoes.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 4,452

    I get the impression that Labour is making an effort here but not so much in North Shropshire, and the LibDems the reverse. Not based on much, but I'm getting WhatsApp messages urging me to Bexley, and nobody's mentioned Shropshire at all. As a Lomdoner at heart I know how to get to Bexley, whereas tbh I couldn't find Shropshire on a map without help. Er, NW Midlands or something?

    Like Foxy I expect a Bexley Con hold though, but a reasonable swing to Labour.

    Ditto in reverse (except I know where Bexley is)
  • tlg86 said:

    Does this count as a Godwin?

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/17/nazis-based-their-elite-schools-on-top-british-private-schools

    Nazis based their elite schools on top British private schools
    Eton and Harrow among those whose ‘character-building’ qualities were admired by German educators in 1930s and 1940s

    Lordy.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,813

    tlg86 said:

    Does this count as a Godwin?

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/17/nazis-based-their-elite-schools-on-top-british-private-schools

    Nazis based their elite schools on top British private schools
    Eton and Harrow among those whose ‘character-building’ qualities were admired by German educators in 1930s and 1940s

    They particularly admired the institutional racism.
    Really? Who was there to be racist about at 30s and 40s E & H?
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 4,742
    Foxy said:

    One thing that I have encountered is that in parts of India people have only one name. I have a colleague known as Kumar, or more formally Dr Kumar. This presented a problem in England as forms require a forename and a surname, so he had to invent one, and adopted his father's name as a forename. It was only after 10 years of working with him that he told me, so I had been misnaming for an embarrassingly long time.

    There was a good sketch in Goodness Gracious Me on the subject of names:

    https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x7sr3t

    I believe the Indian cricketer L Sivaramakrishnan was similar, L stood for Laxman, his father's name.

    Of course cricket does someone assign people two names on the scoresheet (or even just one) rather than initials and surname. Seems ubiquitous for Pakistanis, Afghans and Bangladeshis, and some Indians, and they are usually known by the first of those two names (ie Azeem rather than Rafiq).

    A Malaysian Chinese guy in a former job was known as Rodney Lee. His real name was I think Lee Eng Hua, Eng Hua Lee the English way round, but everyone called him Lee.

    Europeans seem to all follow the given-name surname pattern. Hungarians use them the other way round, eg Bartok Bela. Russians still have patronymics as middle names and they are still used formally, eg Vladimir Vladimir'ich rather than Gospodin Putin (although I expect only a very close friend would call him Volodya).
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,282
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    MattW said:

    Thanks for the header, Mike.

    Minor op tomorrow. With a General Anaesthetic. Ugh. Taxi at 6:30am.

    Good luck this morning!

    I’m in tomorrow morning for something minor, really hate hospitals.
    My brother, who is seriously ill, now has Covid. He almost certainly got it on his hospital trips since he doesn't go out otherwise. Hospitals are best stayed away from at the moment.
    Bit of a problem for me!
    LOL There are a remarkable number of doctors who seem to manage it at Ninewells and are still working from home. I have been told that my follow up from my little excitement in June with blood clots etc won't be until the New Year. Its a bit disappointing to be honest.
  • tlg86 said:

    Does this count as a Godwin?

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/17/nazis-based-their-elite-schools-on-top-british-private-schools

    Nazis based their elite schools on top British private schools
    Eton and Harrow among those whose ‘character-building’ qualities were admired by German educators in 1930s and 1940s

    They particularly admired the institutional racism.
    I'm not sure the Nazis embraced multiculturalism before visiting Eton.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,813
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    MattW said:

    Thanks for the header, Mike.

    Minor op tomorrow. With a General Anaesthetic. Ugh. Taxi at 6:30am.

    Good luck this morning!

    I’m in tomorrow morning for something minor, really hate hospitals.
    My brother, who is seriously ill, now has Covid. He almost certainly got it on his hospital trips since he doesn't go out otherwise. Hospitals are best stayed away from at the moment.
    What a bugger, but that's hospitals. Much my biggest potential exposure to COVID was queueing for my booster
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