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The last successful Tory by-election defence was in 2016 – politicalbetting.com
The last successful Tory by-election defence was in 2016 – politicalbetting.com
Here’s a political trivia question that even the most ardent PBer would struggle to answer – when and where was the last successful Tory Westminster by-election defence?
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From wiki, the number of Tory by-elections as a proportion since 2010 is:
2019 - to date - 4/7
2017-19 - 1/5
2015-17 - 3/10
2010-15 - 4/21 (and two of those were UKIP driven where the incumbents won)
And the trend goes further back (in fairness there were fewer of them to provoke a by-election), and its not until the 1997 parliament that there's as high a proportion of Tory defences as now.
2005-10 - 3/14
2001-05 - 0/6
1997-01 - 5/17
1992-97 - 8/18
1987-92 - 10/24
This is an area where, if Labour were to sharpen up their act to match the Tories, we could expect to see a further decline in the frequency of by-elections.
* Note the LD definition of confidential is several tens of thousand emails.
There used to be so many of them - 1959-64 there were 62! 27 were due to death in office, and a number of others were due to deaths of someone else pushing the incumbent into the Lords.
Brazen indeed.
So with the anti Tory vote split it should be a Tory hold even if the Tory vote falls below 50%
"Mr Bradwell could not confirm how many complaints the union had received, but said: "It was the largest number in my time in Cambridge by an awfully long way."
"He said the union now planned to "institutionalise firm definitions of racism", including anti-black racism and anti-Semitism.
""We will create a blacklist of speakers never to be invited back, and we will share it with other unions too. Andrew will be on that list," Mr Bradwell wrote to members."
They are unable to differentiate between quoted views and actual views. They are morons
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-59214397
Tho I love the use of "blacklist". That will get him cancelled for life in about 3 weeks
SEVEN!
Cannot imagine even one happening now.
I got ambivalent right
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/quiz/political-typology/
First time I've ever been called left wing. 😂
A very US centric poll though.
Mysteriously he recommends alcohol-free hand sanitizer, after receiving 25k from a relevant manufacturer.
Can that be legal?
Seems fair.
I thought it has to be 70% ethyl or isopropyl alcohol to break down viruses reliably.
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/04/21/is-it-bye-bye-to-by-elections/
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/04/27/bye-bye-by-elections-part-2-mps-who-resigned-their-seats-and-stood-in-the-ensuing-by-election/
Have found your post and thankyou for the comment on your thoughts on me as a councillor, much appreciated
I was 'outsider left', which I am pleased to see is the youngest typology group. Yay! I'm young at heart!
Not sure this quiz really works outside the US tbh.
I also posted electron instead of election earlier.
Only supporters of RefUK or JRM or IDS in the UK would make it as conservative Republicans in US terms
Now looking for smelling salts.
Brazen is right though.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1458198773319012354
This time I got Committed Conservative instead of Outsider Left. Though its still a shitty test and in the bar charts very few of my ratings line up with "Committed Conservatives" besides how I rated the parties.
I'm perplexed.
The questions seemed deeply slanted to me - framed by someone obsessed with the 'culture war'. Nothing on health care, wealth inequality, or democratic rights, yet gender fluidity, immigration, and size of government figure as individual questions.
I mean, I was as pissed as the next man when the Yanks were planning to mess with my Dairy Milk, but insurance? It just doesn't get me that excited.
Eric “Spicy Nachos” Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing
·
1h
2) Perspective—“panic buying” of groceries & necessities has begun in mainland China [as covid] cases rising across majority of Flag of China provinces—& mostly community transmission, not travel. Cases low vs Western countries—but could rise.
I wonder if we could come up with anything better here, and if we could create an unusual and interesting set of questions for it?
I'm wondering if you could define a set of British political archetypes using MPs, and then give people a set of quotes from Hansard and ask them if they agree or disagree, so that you could tell people how close their politics was to the archetypal MPs.
Sounds exactly right (if I were American). So it works
That is to say, we have bred a generation of properly stupid people. IQs are falling across the world (the so called Reverse Flynn Effect) this is that tendency finally revealing itself, in our education system
Add in the drop in testosterone levels and the decline in sperm counts and you have to wonder:
1. if Gaia has just decided to kill off humans
2. What year the Chinese will just walk all over us (before their own low birthrates kill them as well)?
3. Who the hell my mid-teen daughters might marry, who might not be an effete imbecile. There won't be much choice
Of microbes, at least.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/09/politics/gosar-anime-video-violence-ocasio-cortez-biden/index.html
I'm on at 4.5, which is not brilliant but will do.
But Reform UK got nearly twice the Heritage vote in the London Assembly election... but the CPA beat both of them.
It was Eng Dem over UKIP over CPA over, in last place, Heritage in Batley & Spen.
There is no pattern here... but I do wonder whether Kurten might do better and Tice worse than we're expecting.
"If you had to choose, would you rather have…
A smaller government providing fewer services
A bigger government providing more services"
It would have been nice to have had more than 2 possible answers.
A bigger government prioritising people like you
or
A bigger government prioritising people not like you
e.g.
Q. Would you prefer higher taxes and better services or lower taxes and worse services?
A. Lower taxes and better services.