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The last successful Tory by-election defence was in 2016 – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited November 9 in General
imageThe last successful Tory by-election defence was in 2016 – politicalbetting.com

Here’s a political trivia question that even the most ardent PBer would struggle to answer – when and where was the last successful Tory Westminster by-election defence?

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Comments

  • First.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,465
    Latest on Andrew Bowie, under pressure from chief whip. News outlets sympathetic to the government (a short and shrinking list) confirm he is standing down in effect to make his resignation more polite... https://reaction.life/tory-mps-say-vice-chairman-of-party-has-quit-unable-to-defend-government/ https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1458185519809040388/photo/1
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,704

    Foxy said:

    GIN1138 said:

    tomfan said:

    test

    Hello Welcome to PB.

    You've picked quite a night to join the conversation! :D
    But started with a PB classic perennial!
    Or perineal..
    Can't let this prime gag grundle its way past everyone.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,353
    OGH very gently guiding the conversation on...
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,476
    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    GIN1138 said:

    tomfan said:

    test

    Hello Welcome to PB.

    You've picked quite a night to join the conversation! :D
    But started with a PB classic perennial!
    Or perineal..
    Can't let this prime gag grundle its way past everyone.
    Was quite alarmed once to be told I’d pulled my peroneal muscle. Turns out it’s one of the calf muscles, and nowhere near what I was thinking... :D
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,704
    edited November 9
    It is true it hsa been awhile since a successful Tory defence. In fairness by-elections have seemed more common for non-Tories, and there's also been a sad increase in the number of deaths among Tory MPs this year, after a long period with none.

    From wiki, the number of Tory by-elections as a proportion since 2010 is:

    2019 - to date - 4/7
    2017-19 - 1/5
    2015-17 - 3/10
    2010-15 - 4/21 (and two of those were UKIP driven where the incumbents won)

    And the trend goes further back (in fairness there were fewer of them to provoke a by-election), and its not until the 1997 parliament that there's as high a proportion of Tory defences as now.

    2005-10 - 3/14
    2001-05 - 0/6
    1997-01 - 5/17
    1992-97 - 8/18
    1987-92 - 10/24
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 5,162
    The best way to avoid losing a by-election in one of your seats is to avoid having any, and it's notable from OGH's article that there have been relatively few Tory defences over the last five years.

    This is an area where, if Labour were to sharpen up their act to match the Tories, we could expect to see a further decline in the frequency of by-elections.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 4,437
    edited November 9
    I have received a confidential* briefing from the LDs and they are obviously going for the Shropshire by election big time.

    * Note the LD definition of confidential is several tens of thousand emails.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,704
    Amusingly I see there was even 1 by-election in the Feb-Oct 1974 Parliament, otherwise the best chance to get away with none.

    There used to be so many of them - 1959-64 there were 62! 27 were due to death in office, and a number of others were due to deaths of someone else pushing the incumbent into the Lords.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,376
    kjh said:

    I have received a confidential* briefing from the LDs and they are obviously going for the Shropshire by electron big time.

    * Note the LD definition of confidential is several tens of thousand emails.

    I doubt they will win it though given Labour is also standing a candidate.

    So with the anti Tory vote split it should be a Tory hold even if the Tory vote falls below 50%
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 97,786
    edited November 9
    kle4 said:

    Amusingly I see there was even 1 by-election in the Feb-Oct 1974 Parliament, otherwise the best chance to get away with none.

    There used to be so many of them - 1959-64 there were 62! 27 were due to death in office, and a number of others were due to deaths of someone else pushing the incumbent into the Lords.

    I make it seven by elections due to the MPs taking up judicial appointments between 1959-64.

    SEVEN!

    Cannot imagine even one happening now.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,376
    edited November 9
    What is your political typology quiz?
    I got ambivalent right

    https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/quiz/political-typology/
  • kjhkjh Posts: 4,437
    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    I have received a confidential* briefing from the LDs and they are obviously going for the Shropshire by electron big time.

    * Note the LD definition of confidential is several tens of thousand emails.

    I doubt they will win it though given Labour is also standing a candidate.

    So with the anti Tory vote split it should be a Tory hold even if the Tory vote falls below 50%
    It will all depend upon whether they can position themselves as the challenger in the electors mind. A challenge I grant you.
  • glwglw Posts: 7,744
    Leon said:

    Oh good god this is nonsense. I despise this new generation. Andrew Graham Dixon is not a fucking Nazi

    "Mr Bradwell could not confirm how many complaints the union had received, but said: "It was the largest number in my time in Cambridge by an awfully long way."

    "He said the union now planned to "institutionalise firm definitions of racism", including anti-black racism and anti-Semitism.

    ""We will create a blacklist of speakers never to be invited back, and we will share it with other unions too. Andrew will be on that list," Mr Bradwell wrote to members."

    They are unable to differentiate between quoted views and actual views. They are morons

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-59214397


    Tho I love the use of "blacklist". That will get him cancelled for life in about 3 weeks

    How thick do you have to be to not understand that sometimes people are illustrating a point by mimicking and lampooning someone?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 30,218
    Leon said:

    Oh good god this is nonsense. I despise this new generation. Andrew Graham Dixon is not a fucking Nazi

    "Mr Bradwell could not confirm how many complaints the union had received, but said: "It was the largest number in my time in Cambridge by an awfully long way."

    "He said the union now planned to "institutionalise firm definitions of racism", including anti-black racism and anti-Semitism.

    ""We will create a blacklist of speakers never to be invited back, and we will share it with other unions too. Andrew will be on that list," Mr Bradwell wrote to members."

    They are unable to differentiate between quoted views and actual views. They are morons

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-59214397


    Tho I love the use of "blacklist". That will get him cancelled for life in about 3 weeks

    It's hard to know what such people expect to derive from a degree-leval education. Plainly, they possess very low levels of intelligence, and are unteachable, since teaching involves being exposed to opinions that one may disagree with.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 38,582

    First.

    Unlike Liverpool? :lol:
  • glwglw Posts: 7,744
    Sean_F said:

    It's hard to know what such people expect to derive from a degree-leval education. Plainly, they possess very low levels of intelligence, and are unteachable, since teaching involves being exposed to opinions that one may disagree with.

    Exactly. They appear to be as thick as two short planks.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 4,714

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    GIN1138 said:

    tomfan said:

    test

    Hello Welcome to PB.

    You've picked quite a night to join the conversation! :D
    But started with a PB classic perennial!
    Or perineal..
    Can't let this prime gag grundle its way past everyone.
    Was quite alarmed once to be told I’d pulled my peroneal muscle. Turns out it’s one of the calf muscles, and nowhere near what I was thinking... :D
    I appear to have peroneal tendinitis at the moment, although it responded well to sticking my foot in a box of ice at the weekend, and I went for an easy run this evening without any problems.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,574
    glw said:

    Sean_F said:

    It's hard to know what such people expect to derive from a degree-leval education. Plainly, they possess very low levels of intelligence, and are unteachable, since teaching involves being exposed to opinions that one may disagree with.

    Exactly. They appear to be as thick as two short planks.
    Remind me which university this is?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,704
    HYUFD said:

    What is your political typology quiz?
    I got ambivalent right

    https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/quiz/political-typology/

    ...so did I.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 4,437
    @HYUFD Did you see I referenced you in a post this morning. You will be relieved to know In a complementary way 👍
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,142
    HYUFD said:

    What is your political typology quiz?
    I got ambivalent right

    https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/quiz/political-typology/

    I got anarcho-fascist
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,142
    HYUFD said:

    What is your political typology quiz?
    I got ambivalent right

    https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/quiz/political-typology/

    I enjoyed clicking "major problem" to people being too offended, and "major problem" to people being too offensive.
    And I wholeheartedly stand by that view. We have become an avalanche of snowflakes and edgelords.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,477
    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    What is your political typology quiz?
    I got ambivalent right

    https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/quiz/political-typology/

    I got anarcho-fascist
    Outsider Left. Apparently we’re the youngest group!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,458
    glw said:

    Leon said:

    Oh good god this is nonsense. I despise this new generation. Andrew Graham Dixon is not a fucking Nazi

    "Mr Bradwell could not confirm how many complaints the union had received, but said: "It was the largest number in my time in Cambridge by an awfully long way."

    "He said the union now planned to "institutionalise firm definitions of racism", including anti-black racism and anti-Semitism.

    ""We will create a blacklist of speakers never to be invited back, and we will share it with other unions too. Andrew will be on that list," Mr Bradwell wrote to members."

    They are unable to differentiate between quoted views and actual views. They are morons

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-59214397


    Tho I love the use of "blacklist". That will get him cancelled for life in about 3 weeks

    How thick do you have to be to not understand that sometimes people are illustrating a point by mimicking and lampooning someone?
    I know. What a ridiculous concept. Someone should tell erm Cambridge Footlights and cancel, erm, Peter Cook for starters.

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,191
    Outsider Left.

    First time I've ever been called left wing. 😂

    A very US centric poll though.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 9,510
    IDS was asked to chair a committee on post-Brexit deregulation opportunities.

    Mysteriously he recommends alcohol-free hand sanitizer, after receiving 25k from a relevant manufacturer.

    Can that be legal?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 2,774
    IanB2 said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    What is your political typology quiz?
    I got ambivalent right

    https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/quiz/political-typology/

    I got anarcho-fascist
    Outsider Left. Apparently we’re the youngest group!
    Establishment Liberal.

    Seems fair.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,704
    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Oh good god this is nonsense. I despise this new generation. Andrew Graham Dixon is not a fucking Nazi

    "Mr Bradwell could not confirm how many complaints the union had received, but said: "It was the largest number in my time in Cambridge by an awfully long way."

    "He said the union now planned to "institutionalise firm definitions of racism", including anti-black racism and anti-Semitism.

    ""We will create a blacklist of speakers never to be invited back, and we will share it with other unions too. Andrew will be on that list," Mr Bradwell wrote to members."

    They are unable to differentiate between quoted views and actual views. They are morons

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-59214397


    Tho I love the use of "blacklist". That will get him cancelled for life in about 3 weeks

    It's hard to know what such people expect to derive from a degree-leval education.
    What most people expect of a degree level education - the ability to apply for entry level jobs which are screened for graduates even if they don't need to be.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,142
    IanB2 said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    What is your political typology quiz?
    I got ambivalent right

    https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/quiz/political-typology/

    I got anarcho-fascist
    Outsider Left. Apparently we’re the youngest group!
    For the avoidance of doubt, I just made up "anarcho-fascism" and now I'm googling it to see if it's even a thing.
    I was trying to find something obviously fake and contradictory but no, it seems that there are actually people who would describe themselves that way. O brave new world that has such people in't!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,519
    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    What is your political typology quiz?
    I got ambivalent right

    https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/quiz/political-typology/

    I got anarcho-fascist
    Outsider Left, but the questions don't work outside the USA. I don't think America the greatest country in the world, but as a non-American, what do you expect?

  • kjh said:

    @HYUFD Did you see I referenced you in a post this morning. You will be relieved to know In a complementary way 👍

    HYUFD would go well with a rich and fruity Spanish red
  • kjhkjh Posts: 4,437

    Outsider Left.

    First time I've ever been called left wing. 😂

    A very US centric poll though.

    Yes. I gave up, not feeling able to complete it.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,519

    IDS was asked to chair a committee on post-Brexit deregulation opportunities.

    Mysteriously he recommends alcohol-free hand sanitizer, after receiving 25k from a relevant manufacturer.

    Can that be legal?
    Does it work?

    I thought it has to be 70% ethyl or isopropyl alcohol to break down viruses reliably.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 38,582
    kle4 said:

    Amusingly I see there was even 1 by-election in the Feb-Oct 1974 Parliament, otherwise the best chance to get away with none.

    There used to be so many of them - 1959-64 there were 62! 27 were due to death in office, and a number of others were due to deaths of someone else pushing the incumbent into the Lords.

    "Rather more fun facts include 1998 being the only year in UK electoral history without either any Westminster by-elections or a General Election, and the General Election years of 1992 and 2010 being the only others without any by-elections. The longest “gap” between two by-elections was the 567 days between 20th November 1997 and 10th June 1999."

    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/04/21/is-it-bye-bye-to-by-elections/
    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/04/27/bye-bye-by-elections-part-2-mps-who-resigned-their-seats-and-stood-in-the-ensuing-by-election/
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,740
    Foxy said:

    IDS was asked to chair a committee on post-Brexit deregulation opportunities.

    Mysteriously he recommends alcohol-free hand sanitizer, after receiving 25k from a relevant manufacturer.

    Can that be legal?
    Does it work?

    I thought it has to be 70% ethyl or isopropyl alcohol to break down viruses reliably.
    Do you think he cares? He got his money and now needs to do what they tell him to do.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,376
    edited November 9
    kjh said:

    @HYUFD Did you see I referenced you in a post this morning. You will be relieved to know In a complementary way 👍

    Thanks, have had a lot of work on today and a council meeting this evening.

    Have found your post and thankyou for the comment on your thoughts on me as a councillor, much appreciated
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,831
    edited November 9
    HYUFD said:

    What is your political typology quiz?
    I got ambivalent right

    https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/quiz/political-typology/

    Blimey, if you're ambivalent I'd hate to meet somebody who was a commited conservative!

    I was 'outsider left', which I am pleased to see is the youngest typology group. Yay! I'm young at heart!

    Not sure this quiz really works outside the US tbh.

  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,837
    Foxy said:

    IDS was asked to chair a committee on post-Brexit deregulation opportunities.

    Mysteriously he recommends alcohol-free hand sanitizer, after receiving 25k from a relevant manufacturer.

    Can that be legal?
    Does it work?

    I thought it has to be 70% ethyl or isopropyl alcohol to break down viruses reliably.
    Don’t ask irrelevant questions like “does it work”
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,142
    Foxy said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    What is your political typology quiz?
    I got ambivalent right

    https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/quiz/political-typology/

    I got anarcho-fascist
    Outsider Left, but the questions don't work outside the USA. I don't think America the greatest country in the world, but as a non-American, what do you expect?

    Yes, although I found the question about "another country being as strong as America" surprisingly difficult. I second and third guessed myself before settling on an answer. There IS some merit to a unipolar world, and the chances of annihilation under cold war conditions were unsettlingly high.
    Ideally we'd arm Canada to the teeth and every time America gets a bit too uppity Trudeau can bat them on the heat with a rolled up newspaper.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 2,806

    kjh said:

    @HYUFD Did you see I referenced you in a post this morning. You will be relieved to know In a complementary way 👍

    HYUFD would go well with a rich and fruity Spanish red
    Red hair or red political views? I can't see HYUFD hooking up with a lefty :wink:
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,634
    HYUFD said:

    What is your political typology quiz?
    I got ambivalent right

    https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/quiz/political-typology/

    Establishment Liberal.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,142
    kle4 said:

    Amusingly I see there was even 1 by-election in the Feb-Oct 1974 Parliament, otherwise the best chance to get away with none.

    There used to be so many of them - 1959-64 there were 62! 27 were due to death in office, and a number of others were due to deaths of someone else pushing the incumbent into the Lords.

    1271 seats contested in 1974 then? That's got to be a record, right?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,704

    kle4 said:

    Amusingly I see there was even 1 by-election in the Feb-Oct 1974 Parliament, otherwise the best chance to get away with none.

    There used to be so many of them - 1959-64 there were 62! 27 were due to death in office, and a number of others were due to deaths of someone else pushing the incumbent into the Lords.

    "Rather more fun facts include 1998 being the only year in UK electoral history without either any Westminster by-elections or a General Election, and the General Election years of 1992 and 2010 being the only others without any by-elections. The longest “gap” between two by-elections was the 567 days between 20th November 1997 and 10th June 1999."

    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/04/21/is-it-bye-bye-to-by-elections/
    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/04/27/bye-bye-by-elections-part-2-mps-who-resigned-their-seats-and-stood-in-the-ensuing-by-election/
    That was some good work. You should have some more lined up.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 4,437

    kjh said:

    @HYUFD Did you see I referenced you in a post this morning. You will be relieved to know In a complementary way 👍

    HYUFD would go well with a rich and fruity Spanish red
    Ha ha very good. I noticed the spelling mistake when it was too late to change. Thought I might get away with it.

    I also posted electron instead of election earlier.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,376

    HYUFD said:

    What is your political typology quiz?
    I got ambivalent right

    https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/quiz/political-typology/

    Blimey, if you're ambivalent I'd hate to meet somebody who was a commited conservative!

    I was 'outsider left', which I am pleased to see is the youngest typology group. Yay! I'm young at heart!

    Not sure this quiz really works outside the US tbh.

    In the US I would be a moderate Republican, which makes me a right of centre Conservative in the UK.

    Only supporters of RefUK or JRM or IDS in the UK would make it as conservative Republicans in US terms
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,831

    Outsider Left.

    First time I've ever been called left wing. 😂

    A very US centric poll though.

    Struggling to comprehend how we ended up in the same category! 🤭
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 2,806
    Somewhat disappointed that I seem to be the only man on this site never hit upon by another man :disappointed:
  • glwglw Posts: 7,744

    glw said:

    Leon said:

    Oh good god this is nonsense. I despise this new generation. Andrew Graham Dixon is not a fucking Nazi

    "Mr Bradwell could not confirm how many complaints the union had received, but said: "It was the largest number in my time in Cambridge by an awfully long way."

    "He said the union now planned to "institutionalise firm definitions of racism", including anti-black racism and anti-Semitism.

    ""We will create a blacklist of speakers never to be invited back, and we will share it with other unions too. Andrew will be on that list," Mr Bradwell wrote to members."

    They are unable to differentiate between quoted views and actual views. They are morons

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-59214397


    Tho I love the use of "blacklist". That will get him cancelled for life in about 3 weeks

    How thick do you have to be to not understand that sometimes people are illustrating a point by mimicking and lampooning someone?
    I know. What a ridiculous concept. Someone should tell erm Cambridge Footlights and cancel, erm, Peter Cook for starters.

    Not just Peter Cook but many of the best comics ever, and not just comics of the past either. The censorious literalism that some young people seem to subscribe to is bizarre.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,068

    HYUFD said:

    What is your political typology quiz?
    I got ambivalent right

    https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/quiz/political-typology/

    Blimey, if you're ambivalent I'd hate to meet somebody who was a commited conservative!

    I was 'outsider left', which I am pleased to see is the youngest typology group. Yay! I'm young at heart!

    Not sure this quiz really works outside the US tbh.

    I played devil's advocate on this and ended up with commited conservative.

    Now looking for smelling salts.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,633
    Foxy said:

    IDS was asked to chair a committee on post-Brexit deregulation opportunities.

    Mysteriously he recommends alcohol-free hand sanitizer, after receiving 25k from a relevant manufacturer.

    Can that be legal?
    Does it work?

    I thought it has to be 70% ethyl or isopropyl alcohol to break down viruses reliably.
    Apparently so: https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/535460

    Brazen is right though.
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 85

    Outsider Left.

    First time I've ever been called left wing. 😂

    A very US centric poll though.

    Struggling to comprehend how we ended up in the same category! 🤭
    Establishment Liberal. I'm not very surprised by that.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 4,437
    edited November 9
    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    @HYUFD Did you see I referenced you in a post this morning. You will be relieved to know In a complementary way 👍

    Thanks, have had a lot of work on today and a council meeting this evening.

    Have found your post and thankyou for the comment on your thoughts on me as a councillor, much appreciated
    No problem. I objected to the thought that we are all in it for what we can get and although we disagree on a lot I thought you were a good example of someone who is committed to what you believe in and not in any way out for what you can get personally.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,068
    Looks as if Geoffery Cox has made more enemies.

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1458198773319012354

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,191
    I retook that silly American Typology test, but answering the questions as if they said Britain instead of America, Labour instead of Democrats and Conservatives instead of GOP [whom I rated at 0 first time around].

    This time I got Committed Conservative instead of Outsider Left. Though its still a shitty test and in the bar charts very few of my ratings line up with "Committed Conservatives" besides how I rated the parties.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,519
    Selebian said:

    Somewhat disappointed that I seem to be the only man on this site never hit upon by another man :disappointed:

    What's a nice boy like you doing in a place like this?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,458
    dr_spyn said:

    Looks as if Geoffery Cox has made more enemies.

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1458198773319012354

    Why is LV bid on Mail front page?

    I'm perplexed.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,831
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    What is your political typology quiz?
    I got ambivalent right

    https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/quiz/political-typology/

    Blimey, if you're ambivalent I'd hate to meet somebody who was a commited conservative!

    I was 'outsider left', which I am pleased to see is the youngest typology group. Yay! I'm young at heart!

    Not sure this quiz really works outside the US tbh.

    In the US I would be a moderate Republican, which makes me a right of centre Conservative in the UK.

    Only supporters of RefUK or JRM or IDS in the UK would make it as conservative Republicans in US terms
    Yes that's fair - once I had completed the quiz and realised how US centric it was I was no longer surprised you were deemed 'ambivalent'.

    The questions seemed deeply slanted to me - framed by someone obsessed with the 'culture war'. Nothing on health care, wealth inequality, or democratic rights, yet gender fluidity, immigration, and size of government figure as individual questions.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,634

    Outsider Left.

    First time I've ever been called left wing. 😂

    A very US centric poll though.

    Beats being a left outsider.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 2,806

    dr_spyn said:

    Looks as if Geoffery Cox has made more enemies.

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1458198773319012354

    Why is LV bid on Mail front page?

    I'm perplexed.
    According to the Mail, you should be apoplexed. But no, I don't get it either.

    I mean, I was as pissed as the next man when the Yanks were planning to mess with my Dairy Milk, but insurance? It just doesn't get me that excited.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,831
    Outside left - like George Best!
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,142
    dr_spyn said:

    Looks as if Geoffery Cox has made more enemies.

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1458198773319012354

    Isa, that's quite an aggressive front page. "Dishonourable" is a very strong word. An unwise man would consider suing.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,634

    Outside left - like George Best!

    ...and isn't Phil Thompson a centte- back?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,458
    Paging @Leon...


    Eric “Spicy Nachos” Feigl-Ding
    @DrEricDing
    ·
    1h
    2) Perspective—“panic buying” of groceries & necessities has begun in mainland China [as covid] cases rising across majority of Flag of China provinces—& mostly community transmission, not travel. Cases low vs Western countries—but could rise.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,142

    Paging @Leon...


    Eric “Spicy Nachos” Feigl-Ding
    @DrEricDing
    ·
    1h
    2) Perspective—“panic buying” of groceries & necessities has begun in mainland China [as covid] cases rising across majority of Flag of China provinces—& mostly community transmission, not travel. Cases low vs Western countries—but could rise.

    Bloody Remainers
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 1,395
    edited November 9
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    What is your political typology quiz?
    I got ambivalent right

    https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/quiz/political-typology/

    ...so did I.
    I'm an "Establishment Liberal". I've never been more happy in my life :lol:
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 38,582
    Selebian said:

    Somewhat disappointed that I seem to be the only man on this site never hit upon by another man :disappointed:

    "Fancy a little bit of MY, ah, gender fluids?"
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 38,582
    edited November 9
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Amusingly I see there was even 1 by-election in the Feb-Oct 1974 Parliament, otherwise the best chance to get away with none.

    There used to be so many of them - 1959-64 there were 62! 27 were due to death in office, and a number of others were due to deaths of someone else pushing the incumbent into the Lords.

    "Rather more fun facts include 1998 being the only year in UK electoral history without either any Westminster by-elections or a General Election, and the General Election years of 1992 and 2010 being the only others without any by-elections. The longest “gap” between two by-elections was the 567 days between 20th November 1997 and 10th June 1999."

    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/04/21/is-it-bye-bye-to-by-elections/
    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/04/27/bye-bye-by-elections-part-2-mps-who-resigned-their-seats-and-stood-in-the-ensuing-by-election/
    That was some good work. You should have some more lined up.
    Thanks! I wrote those in 2019. Of course, 2020 should be added to the list of "no by-election years".
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 5,162

    I retook that silly American Typology test, but answering the questions as if they said Britain instead of America, Labour instead of Democrats and Conservatives instead of GOP [whom I rated at 0 first time around].

    This time I got Committed Conservative instead of Outsider Left. Though its still a shitty test and in the bar charts very few of my ratings line up with "Committed Conservatives" besides how I rated the parties.

    The British political tribes analysis on Electoral Calculus seems by far the best one for British politics that I have seen.

    I wonder if we could come up with anything better here, and if we could create an unusual and interesting set of questions for it?

    I'm wondering if you could define a set of British political archetypes using MPs, and then give people a set of quotes from Hansard and ask them if they agree or disagree, so that you could tell people how close their politics was to the archetypal MPs.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,142
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/nov/09/iain-duncan-smith-accused-of-brazen-conflict-of-interest-over-25000-job

    Rayner's asking the right questions here:
    Did this MP declare an interest when these matters were discussed and reported on by the taskforce? Why is the prime minister failing to act over these glaring conflicts of interest?

    Looking forward to hearing about why we don't need to be worried by this. Prima facie this is troubling.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,402
    MaxPB said:

    Foxy said:

    IDS was asked to chair a committee on post-Brexit deregulation opportunities.

    Mysteriously he recommends alcohol-free hand sanitizer, after receiving 25k from a relevant manufacturer.

    Can that be legal?
    Does it work?

    I thought it has to be 70% ethyl or isopropyl alcohol to break down viruses reliably.
    Do you think he cares? He got his money and now needs to do what they tell him to do.
    Iain Duncan Smith is facing questions over his £25,000-a-year second job advising kickbacks, working a grift on behalf of a multimillion-pound hand sanitiser company.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 12,861
    I am "ambivalent Right". An anti-Trump moderate Republican who hates Woke


    Sounds exactly right (if I were American). So it works
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,519
    edited November 9
    Farooq said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/nov/09/iain-duncan-smith-accused-of-brazen-conflict-of-interest-over-25000-job

    Rayner's asking the right questions here:
    Did this MP declare an interest when these matters were discussed and reported on by the taskforce? Why is the prime minister failing to act over these glaring conflicts of interest?

    Looking forward to hearing about why we don't need to be worried by this. Prima facie this is troubling.

    Yes, she is really good on this issue. It's not just a pantomime to her.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,503
    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sherelle Jacobs is probably my favourite journalist at the moment. Couldn't agree more with this.

    "After 11 years of Tory rule, Britain is still run by a hypocritical Blairite elite
    The quangos and BBC continue to be dominated by a soft-Left establishment that the PM is too scared to tame
    Sherelle Jacobs"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/11/08/11-years-tory-rule-britain-still-run-hypocritical-blairite-elite/

    Can't say I think that altogether convincing. 'Establishment' being blamed for things is generally pretty woolly.
    It's always the Establishment's fault. All that changes is who the Establishment is.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 12,861
    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Oh good god this is nonsense. I despise this new generation. Andrew Graham Dixon is not a fucking Nazi

    "Mr Bradwell could not confirm how many complaints the union had received, but said: "It was the largest number in my time in Cambridge by an awfully long way."

    "He said the union now planned to "institutionalise firm definitions of racism", including anti-black racism and anti-Semitism.

    ""We will create a blacklist of speakers never to be invited back, and we will share it with other unions too. Andrew will be on that list," Mr Bradwell wrote to members."

    They are unable to differentiate between quoted views and actual views. They are morons

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-59214397


    Tho I love the use of "blacklist". That will get him cancelled for life in about 3 weeks

    It's hard to know what such people expect to derive from a degree-leval education. Plainly, they possess very low levels of intelligence, and are unteachable, since teaching involves being exposed to opinions that one may disagree with.
    They are genuinely stupid. Also terrified of being singled out as different. But also just fucking dumb

    That is to say, we have bred a generation of properly stupid people. IQs are falling across the world (the so called Reverse Flynn Effect) this is that tendency finally revealing itself, in our education system

    Add in the drop in testosterone levels and the decline in sperm counts and you have to wonder:

    1. if Gaia has just decided to kill off humans

    2. What year the Chinese will just walk all over us (before their own low birthrates kill them as well)?

    3. Who the hell my mid-teen daughters might marry, who might not be an effete imbecile. There won't be much choice
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,519
    Stereodog said:

    Foxy said:

    Selebian said:

    Somewhat disappointed that I seem to be the only man on this site never hit upon by another man :disappointed:

    What's a nice boy like you doing in a place like this?
    I've been married to a another man for 7 years. So it's been about 8 years since I've been hit on 😉
    About 3 decades for me! But being young and better looking in Eighties London it was quite frequent. Not hard to brush off though.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 4,714
    Selebian said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Looks as if Geoffery Cox has made more enemies.

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1458198773319012354

    Why is LV bid on Mail front page?

    I'm perplexed.
    According to the Mail, you should be apoplexed. But no, I don't get it either.

    I mean, I was as pissed as the next man when the Yanks were planning to mess with my Dairy Milk, but insurance? It just doesn't get me that excited.
    According to Wikipedia, it's owned by Allianz anyway.
  • Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    Foxy said:

    IDS was asked to chair a committee on post-Brexit deregulation opportunities.

    Mysteriously he recommends alcohol-free hand sanitizer, after receiving 25k from a relevant manufacturer.

    Can that be legal?
    Does it work?

    I thought it has to be 70% ethyl or isopropyl alcohol to break down viruses reliably.
    Do you think he cares? He got his money and now needs to do what they tell him to do.
    Iain Duncan Smith is facing questions over his £25,000-a-year second job advising kickbacks, working a grift on behalf of a multimillion-pound hand sanitiser company.
    Reminds me of how in the old sitcom "Frazier" his brother Niles was married to a urinal-cake heiress.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,519
    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    Foxy said:

    IDS was asked to chair a committee on post-Brexit deregulation opportunities.

    Mysteriously he recommends alcohol-free hand sanitizer, after receiving 25k from a relevant manufacturer.

    Can that be legal?
    Does it work?

    I thought it has to be 70% ethyl or isopropyl alcohol to break down viruses reliably.
    Do you think he cares? He got his money and now needs to do what they tell him to do.
    Iain Duncan Smith is facing questions over his £25,000-a-year second job advising kickbacks, working a grift on behalf of a multimillion-pound hand sanitiser company.
    Will that company soon be washing their hands of him?
    Yes, it is turning into a bit of a soap opera.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 210
    Will 5 candidates competing for the fringe right-wing vote (UKIP, CPA, Heritage, English Democrats, Reform UK) make a difference in Bexley, or will Tice manage to hoover up the right-leaning protest votes and make any impact?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 33,931

    kle4 said:

    Amusingly I see there was even 1 by-election in the Feb-Oct 1974 Parliament, otherwise the best chance to get away with none.

    There used to be so many of them - 1959-64 there were 62! 27 were due to death in office, and a number of others were due to deaths of someone else pushing the incumbent into the Lords.

    I make it seven by elections due to the MPs taking up judicial appointments between 1959-64.

    SEVEN!

    Cannot imagine even one happening now.
    You're saying they're all still sitting ?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,519
    edited November 9

    Will 5 candidates competing for the fringe right-wing vote (UKIP, CPA, Heritage, English Democrats, Reform UK) make a difference in Bexley, or will Tice manage to hoover up the right-leaning protest votes and make any impact?

    Maybe 10% between them on a good day. Both look like safe Tory holds, though Shropshire could be interesting.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 210

    HYUFD said:

    What is your political typology quiz?
    I got ambivalent right

    https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/quiz/political-typology/

    Establishment Liberal.
    Democratic Mainstay... whatever that means.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,503
    GOP Congressman creates animation of himself killing AOC and posts it to Instagram:

    https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/09/politics/gosar-anime-video-violence-ocasio-cortez-biden/index.html
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 210
    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    I have received a confidential* briefing from the LDs and they are obviously going for the Shropshire by electron big time.

    * Note the LD definition of confidential is several tens of thousand emails.

    I doubt they will win it though given Labour is also standing a candidate.

    So with the anti Tory vote split it should be a Tory hold even if the Tory vote falls below 50%
    Agreed. But still worth fighting. With 3 by-elections in short succession, this is the one to go for. A good campaign keeps the party motivated, keeps the by-election machine well oiled, and expectations are so low that a second place is still going to look like a good result and get some publicity.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,782
    I think the LDs will get very close in North Shropshire, if not actually win it. Tories should hold Bexley with Richard Tice doing better than expected.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,458
    Andy_JS said:

    I think the LDs will get very close in North Shropshire, if not actually win it. Tories should hold Bexley with Richard Tice doing better than expected.

    FWIW, my guts have a feeling about N Shropshire and Liberals. Johnson is due a kick even from his owns supporters just to remind him he needs to up his game if nothing else.

    I'm on at 4.5, which is not brilliant but will do.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,782
    rcs1000 said:

    GOP Congressman creates animation of himself killing AOC and posts it to Instagram:

    https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/09/politics/gosar-anime-video-violence-ocasio-cortez-biden/index.html

    His district must be pretty right-wing to give him a 70% to 30% margin at the last election.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 210

    Will 5 candidates competing for the fringe right-wing vote (UKIP, CPA, Heritage, English Democrats, Reform UK) make a difference in Bexley, or will Tice manage to hoover up the right-leaning protest votes and make any impact?

    Heritage managed 4th, albeit with only 1.6%, but were ahead of Reform UK in the Hartlepool by-election.

    But Reform UK got nearly twice the Heritage vote in the London Assembly election... but the CPA beat both of them.

    It was Eng Dem over UKIP over CPA over, in last place, Heritage in Batley & Spen.

    There is no pattern here... but I do wonder whether Kurten might do better and Tice worse than we're expecting.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 210
    rcs1000 said:

    GOP Congressman creates animation of himself killing AOC and posts it to Instagram:

    https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/09/politics/gosar-anime-video-violence-ocasio-cortez-biden/index.html

    I think someone else created it; the Congressman just posted it. This doesn't make it much better...
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 10,924
    Outsider Left on @hyufd ‘s quiz. But as @Philip_Thompson says it’s so heavily skewed to the US that I’m not sure how useful it is here.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 210

    rcs1000 said:

    GOP Congressman creates animation of himself killing AOC and posts it to Instagram:

    https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/09/politics/gosar-anime-video-violence-ocasio-cortez-biden/index.html

    I think someone else created it; the Congressman just posted it. This doesn't make it much better...
    He's friends with Tommy Robinson. Quelle surprise.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,503

    Outsider Left on @hyufd ‘s quiz. But as @Philip_Thompson says it’s so heavily skewed to the US that I’m not sure how useful it is here.

    As am I, as is @Foxy and @Philip_Thompson.

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 10,924

    I retook that silly American Typology test, but answering the questions as if they said Britain instead of America, Labour instead of Democrats and Conservatives instead of GOP [whom I rated at 0 first time around].

    This time I got Committed Conservative instead of Outsider Left. Though its still a shitty test and in the bar charts very few of my ratings line up with "Committed Conservatives" besides how I rated the parties.

    Yeah, it’s a very blunt instrument I think.
This discussion has been closed.