@tnewtondunn: EXCL: Tories set to come 3rd in euro elections - 1st time ever in a nationwide election. YouGov/Sun: LAB 32%, UKIP 26%, CON 23%, LDEM 9%.
Apart from betting (and who commenting on PB cares about that, eh?) the Euros are important only in their impact on real politics.
They will cause all sorts of Tory belly rumbles. Heck, Dave might have to send some more GoHome vans out, or even have to flounce out of another meeting somewhere in Europe!
I frequently offer bets on here, but the likes of @ScottP seem to lack the cojones to put their money where their mouth is...
And to admit they don't have said cojones
Political mouthiness, betting cowardice dot com?
Any particular reason you singled out @ScottP ? If you removed all of the non-gamblers from PB there would only be a handful of us left.
Apart from betting (and who commenting on PB cares about that, eh?) the Euros are important only in their impact on real politics.
They will cause all sorts of Tory belly rumbles. Heck, Dave might have to send some more GoHome vans out, or even have to flounce out of another meeting somewhere in Europe!
I frequently offer bets on here, but the likes of @ScottP seem to lack the cojones to put their money where their mouth is...
And to admit they don't have said cojones
Political mouthiness, betting cowardice dot com?
Any particular reason you singled out @ScottP ? If you removed all of the non-gamblers from PB there would only be a handful of us left.
Yes, I singled out Scott P because he argued vehemently that Farage would not be allowed on any GE 2015 leader debates, in very sarcastic and smart arse way. I offered to bet that Farage would be involved in a leaders debate at 9/4 (in effect giving him 4/9 that Farage wouldn't be involved, when William Hill are 4/11)
He started saying the bet was ambiguous and needed clarifying, when it wasn't and didn't... Then ignored my question when I asked if we had struck a bet or not, then got all high and mighty about it in his pompous way
I said we can call the bet off if he liked and he just kept saying he didn't understand it, and I hadn't made it clear what th bet was
Basically, he gave it the big one and couldn't back it up...
Apart from betting (and who commenting on PB cares about that, eh?) the Euros are important only in their impact on real politics.
They will cause all sorts of Tory belly rumbles. Heck, Dave might have to send some more GoHome vans out, or even have to flounce out of another meeting somewhere in Europe!
I frequently offer bets on here, but the likes of @ScottP seem to lack the cojones to put their money where their mouth is...
And to admit they don't have said cojones
Political mouthiness, betting cowardice dot com?
Any particular reason you singled out @ScottP ? If you removed all of the non-gamblers from PB there would only be a handful of us left.
Nothing wrong w non gamblers, but there is w people that give it large then run away
Put it this way, the Thesholds of Inclusion under D'Hondt are as follows:-
South West 14.3% South East 9.1% London 11.1% Eastern 12.5% E Midlands 16.7% W Midlands 12.5% North West 11.1% Yorks/Humber 14.3% North East 25% Scotland 14.3% Wales 20%
The Threshold of Inclusion is the minimum number of votes to guarantee a seat under D'Hondt. It is possible for a party to win a seat with fewer votes, which must nevertheless be higher than the Threshold of Exclusion. TOE is harder to calculate.
With The Sun front paging the fact the Tory Party is now third in their Euro poll, is it a change of tact by News International? David Cameron is "plunged into a crisis" apparently.
Murdoch realizing he's being out-twitter-influencer-ed by OGH. Expect the Sun to print more on marginals polling and 2010 LibDems.
@tnewtondunn: ...for MEPs, means; Labour 28, UKIP 23, Conservatives 15, Lib Dems 0. Libs wiped out, lose all 12.
I'd love to see his working-out....
UNS gives
Lab 27 UKIP 21 Con 15 LD 3 GRN 1 SNP 2 PC 1
LDs would retain seats in SE, SW, NW...
I don't think LDs will lose the lot. Based on what happened last time LDs would need 7.5% to win a seat in the SE (got 14% last time), 10% in the SW (got 17% last time), 8% in the NW (got 14% last time). Also in London, they would need 9% (got 13.7%)
So I think they'll definitely keep one in SE any maybe get 1-3
That's the same Home Office who told us multi-culturalism was the way to go and "lost" half a million immigrants for 5 years or more and now it turns out has been cocking up the Crime figures as well. I'm sure people will take that seriously.
The Home Office is about as objective on such matters as Tim Yeo is on Wind Farms
So from this time last year when Yougov did a Euro Poll (Con 27 Lab 38 LD 12 UKIP 17) the changes are
Con -1 Lab -6 LD -3 UKIP +9
Con -4, no?
Indeed its getting late......
Con -4 Lab -6 LD -3 UKIP +9
The thing is that this change has taken place at the same time as Cameron has offered the referendum, the Referendum bill has been going through Parliament and the Tories have increasingly been making tough noises about EU immigration. Does this mean the electorate don't believe them?
Based on what happened last time LDs would need...
So I think they'll definitely keep one in SE any maybe get 1-3
It's impossible to say what the LDs 'would need' under D'Hondt, save the calculations I posted previously. All depends on the integer multiples of the LD vote the other parties score in each constituency...
You forgot Rule 3 : If you are not around trying to troll other posters on the site just before or after a poll has been released then we can all assume its not a great one for the Labour party.
I await the endless posts and tweets from our hysterical colleagues re: Labour's surge in YouGov.
I'm sure Dan Hodges will have plenty to say. In truth, the polls have barely moved for months.
Two rules among the vast majority of posters on here regarding polls:
Rule 1: If it is a good poll for the Tory Party - It feels right, swingback, sub-sectioned to death, polling crossover, all bow to the Messiah Hodges, Tory Majority nailed on, Broken Sleazy Labour on the slide, compare it to whatever month brings the biggest rise in Tory percentage/largest fall in Labour percentage, mention gold standard, Ed is crap
Rule 2: If it is not good for the Tory Party....err.....look squirrel.
It's impossible to say what the LDs 'would need' under D'Hondt, save the calculations I posted previously. All depends on the integer multiples of the LD vote the other parties score in each constituency...
Basically if:-
Sum of INT(partyi/LD), where partyi is a party with more votes than the LDs
Based on what happened last time LDs would need...
So I think they'll definitely keep one in SE any maybe get 1-3
It's impossible to say what the LDs 'would need' under D'Hondt, save the calculations I posted previously. All depends on the integer multiples of the LD vote the other parties score in each constituency...
I agree it's not precise but it gives people an idea.
Smithers - I suspect people indeed do not believe this referendum promise. Too many broken promises from all parties in the past and looks like a wheeze to wriggle out of it.
@tnewtondunn: EXCL: Tories set to come 3rd in euro elections - 1st time ever in a nationwide election. YouGov/Sun: LAB 32%, UKIP 26%, CON 23%, LDEM 9%.
Considering in the Euro 09 elections, the top 4 got 75% of the votes, this time is far higher.
On these numbers, since 2009, Lab +16, UKIP +9, Con -5, LD -5. Others -16.
Looks like "Not any Party" has swung to Labour and Tories and LD's have gone UKIP.
If the Iranians say they think American drones are UFOs and the US doesn't deny it then the Iranians can (attempt to) shoot them down without an international incident.
#14 Deflation 1. Mass immigration is ultimately deflationary (after an initial boost) 2. Mass consumer credit and debt saturation is ultimately deflationary (after an initial boost)
Inflationary policies e.g. money printing, don't counter-act the deflationary pressures they just disguise it.
It's like a boat with a hole in it letting in water. Bailing the boat out with a bucket does effect the water level but it doesn't fix the underlying cause. Two separate mechanisms.
Or in a nutshell the banksters have totally bleeped the world economy
#11 The BBC and political class say you can import millions of young men into a country over the course of a dozen years and crime will go down - not just stay the same but go down.
no 13 The European Arrest Warrant is a vital part of the gulag that will be necessary to lock people up in when the anti-EU pressure builds up - which it will because the flaws in the EU were disguised by the 1998-2008 credit bubble.
Apart from betting (and who commenting on PB cares about that, eh?) the Euros are important only in their impact on real politics.
They will cause all sorts of Tory belly rumbles. Heck, Dave might have to send some more GoHome vans out, or even have to flounce out of another meeting somewhere in Europe!
I frequently offer bets on here, but the likes of @ScottP seem to lack the cojones to put their money where their mouth is...
And to admit they don't have said cojones
Political mouthiness, betting cowardice dot com?
Any particular reason you singled out @ScottP ? If you removed all of the non-gamblers from PB there would only be a handful of us left.
Yes, I singled out Scott P because he argued vehemently that Farage would not be allowed on any GE 2015 leader debates, in very sarcastic and smart arse way. I offered to bet that Farage would be involved in a leaders debate at 9/4 (in effect giving him 4/9 that Farage wouldn't be involved, when William Hill are 4/11)
He started saying the bet was ambiguous and needed clarifying, when it wasn't and didn't... Then ignored my question when I asked if we had struck a bet or not, then got all high and mighty about it in his pompous way
I said we can call the bet off if he liked and he just kept saying he didn't understand it, and I hadn't made it clear what th bet was
Basically, he gave it the big one and couldn't back it up...
Thanks for the reply isam. I guessed there was a reason why you'd picked a specific example but didn't know what it was. Cheers for the heads up.
Comments
So says my spreadsheet, anyways....
Can see Labour winning them despite the UKIP hype.
Bit of a red book tbh
Con +15
Lab -24.31
UKIP +1
Lib Dem -125 (Lol)
If you removed all of the non-gamblers from PB there would only be a handful of us left.
UNS gives
Lab 27
UKIP 21
Con 15
LD 3
GRN 1
SNP 2
PC 1
LDs would retain seats in SE, SW, NW...
Tim Farron is currently 2/1 to be the next Lib Dem leader, but 4/1 to be the Lib Dem leader at the General Election.
I'm taking the 4/1 on him to be the LD leader at the GE.
If the Lib Dems are wiped out at the Euros, surely Clegg's going to be deposed PDQ?
Surely they're not going to sit back and do nothing if they suffer an epochal defeat like this?
Con -1
Lab -6
LD -3
UKIP +9
He started saying the bet was ambiguous and needed clarifying, when it wasn't and didn't... Then ignored my question when I asked if we had struck a bet or not, then got all high and mighty about it in his pompous way
I said we can call the bet off if he liked and he just kept saying he didn't understand it, and I hadn't made it clear what th bet was
Basically, he gave it the big one and couldn't back it up...
Con -4
Lab -6
LD -3
UKIP +9
South West 14.3%
South East 9.1%
London 11.1%
Eastern 12.5%
E Midlands 16.7%
W Midlands 12.5%
North West 11.1%
Yorks/Humber 14.3%
North East 25%
Scotland 14.3%
Wales 20%
The Threshold of Inclusion is the minimum number of votes to guarantee a seat under D'Hondt. It is possible for a party to win a seat with fewer votes, which must nevertheless be higher than the Threshold of Exclusion. TOE is harder to calculate.
So I think they'll definitely keep one in SE any maybe get 1-3
The Home Office is about as objective on such matters as Tim Yeo is on Wind Farms
Sum of INT(partyi/LD), where partyi is a party with more votes than the LDs
is less than the total number of seats available
the LDs will win a seat, otherwise not...
On these numbers, since 2009, Lab +16, UKIP +9, Con -5, LD -5. Others -16.
Looks like "Not any Party" has swung to Labour and Tories and LD's have gone UKIP.
Well, not quite !!
If the Iranians say they think American drones are UFOs and the US doesn't deny it then the Iranians can (attempt to) shoot them down without an international incident.
1. Mass immigration is ultimately deflationary (after an initial boost)
2. Mass consumer credit and debt saturation is ultimately deflationary (after an initial boost)
Inflationary policies e.g. money printing, don't counter-act the deflationary pressures they just disguise it.
It's like a boat with a hole in it letting in water. Bailing the boat out with a bucket does effect the water level but it doesn't fix the underlying cause. Two separate mechanisms.
Or in a nutshell the banksters have totally bleeped the world economy
(again).
The crime stats agree.
Makes perfect sense.
I don't need to whip out my wad for it to be true that Farage will not be included in any TV debate as an equal with Cameron, Clegg or Miliband.
As to the terms, I offered explicit monetary sums, which you declined to confirm. I offered specific examples of wording, which you declined to agree.
If you can't specify the terms unambiguously, don't blame me.
I think you should let this one go.
When Farage is not in the debates you can thank me