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While CON maintains Opinium lead other findings are terrible – politicalbetting.com
While CON maintains Opinium lead other findings are terrible – politicalbetting.com
?NEW?The @Conservatives lead has fallen to 1 point in first poll conducted entirely after Owen Paterson’s resignation on ThursdayThe latest numbers for the @OpiniumResearch / @ObserverUK poll:Con 37% (-3)Lab 36% (+1)Lib Dem 9% (+1)Green 6% (-1)https://t.co/JnZH0GQG1S pic.twitter.com/Y6US4mCehU
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Kshama Sawant is the (currrent) stormy petrel of Seattle politics. An Indian American immigrant and former software engineer for Microsoft, she first won election to the city council in 2013 as the "Socialist Alternative" candidate, narrowly (and surprisingly) defeating an incumbent council citywide. Her victory being due less to her avowed socialism than to her populist opposition to the city hall establishment. (Yours truly was one who voted for her at that time on that basis.)
PBers may be interested to note, that Sawant's Socialist Alternative is the 3rd Millennium addition of Militant Tenancy. As noted last night, she is a Trotskyist Communist, not a Democratic Socialist as most Seattle media and voters imagine.
Sawant again won election in 2015 this time for the District 3 city council seat (Capitol Hill, Madison Park & Valley, Montlake & parts of downtown). In 2019, based on the results of the August primary it appeared she was heading for defeat, but massive over-spending against her by Amazon caused sufficient backlash to help her squeak through to re-election.
Her inflammatory rhetoric and occasional lapses in complying with public ethics laws have landed her in hot water more than once, and has now lead to the current recall.
Sponsors of the recall held back submitting all the voter signatures they collected until AFTER the deadline for appearing on the 2021 general election ballot. Why? Because they calculated that they had a better chance of defeating her in a lower turnout election, with fewer younger & thus more progressive voters who are her base.
However, yours truly is NOT sure that was such smart strategy. Because over the course of many hard-fought elections (primary & general) over the last decade, Kshama Sawant has built herself a strong grassroots organization in her chosen District 3 turf. It is largely "astroturf" because she raises a lot of money (sources largely unknown) which she does NOT spend on TV or mail or consultants, but instead puts her moolah into paying field organizers. A friend of mine reports that one of these guys has already stopped by to touch base three times in the last six months.
Plus methinks that some voters who voted against her the last time around, will conclude that, while they did not support her then and still don't now, the specific charges against her just do NOT rise to the level justifying removal from office after having won the last election fair & square.
Sawant's opponents will of course spend a LOT of money - again - trying to defeat her. But they vividly recall how in 2017, when she was on the ropes and going down after the primary, Bezos and his mega-bucks managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
So Boris has a bigger leader over Starmer as preferred PM than the 1% lead the Conservatives now have over Labour overall
Also shows Boris is still adding more to the Conservative vote than Starmer is adding to the Labour vote
They have it in their own hands to take action, either to demand Boris listens to them, or take the necessary steps to replace him
To turn on the tube that is . . .
Blair is the only recent PM who polled better than Boris is midterm
Just a matter of when now.
He might win in 2023, but he wont make the end of that term.
This suggests that, while they currently rate better than the Tories on this question there's a risk for Labour of making too much of this. It might reduce public trust in them too, and if the public become too cynical they won't believe that voting for Labour can produce change.
They will need to develop positive stories to tell to go along with the attacks on the Tories.
That is all.
@hendopolis
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32m
OBSERVER:
@BorisJohnson
sleaze crisis deepens amid pressure on Covid deals #TomorrowsPapersToday
Neil Henderson
@hendopolis
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44m
SUNDAY EXPRESS:
@trussliz - time to deliver the jobs of the future #TomorrowsPapersToday
There is blind loyalty or constructive criticism to change for the better
You are in the former category sadly
I'm gobsmacked!
Seriously, this is the most easily broken code since Pig Latin
In an instant a slow drip, drip, drip transformed past the tipping point into a tremendous, unstoppable torrent . . .
Tick, tock...
Jim Pickard
@PickardJE
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32m
- wealthy benefactors seem guaranteed peerage if they take on temporary role as Tory party treasurer & increase their donations beyond £3m
- in past 20 years all 16 of the party’s main treasurers (apart from most recent) have been offered seat in Lords
The Bulls nearly got beaten by the Alpha Tauri.
From Verstappen’s comments it seems they just lost a bit of grip. The performance window of the soft tyres is very narrow - Mercedes seems to got it right for once. And Verstappen backed out of his last fast lap as he thought there would be a yellow flag.
Race could be spicy, if the Bulls get a decent start.
Game on.
The Tory vote share and lead has been falling, very slowly, since June.
The Labour one has been rising almost glacially over the same period.
It is difficult to see what is on the horizon which might turn that drift around short term.
Nwvertheless, Tory majority is too long. Have held we will have a '92 style result for a while next time. Followed similarly by 5 years of folk wishing we hadn't.
He would then go off and make his millions and leave Rishi to do the Major pre 1997 or Brown pre 2010 stint.
Boris won't be arsed to do that, having achieved his ambition to be PM and win multiple elections
What's been very positive is that after stabilising at about 0.9, the R has actually gone down to about 0.7, so even if we do get a few additional cases from schools being open again there is now quite a lot of R budget available to absorb any additional cases from schools for those last 10-20% of kids that haven't yet had it or been vaccinated.
I've been having a think about what is driving the fall, the real time data from Google suggests that mobility is higher now than when we were registering 30% more daily cases two weeks ago so I don't think there has been any behaviour change. The booster programme is still in its infancy when one takes into account the 10 days needed for efficacy to go back up. The second dose programme has entirely stalled as well. We will get to something like 70% of the population covered with two doses by the end of the year.
My gut feeling is that we've actually hit herd immunity now that the virus has burned through all of the kids in the country. There was always a very large reservoir of potential hosts for virus when we had stupid things like school bubbles running last spring/summer which meant that the virus always had somewhere to go even if it couldn't necessarily find viable hosts in the adult population due to vaccination.
I really have to applaud the government for holding its nerve on high case numbers since the end of May. Other countries would have buckled under the pressure of their lockdown fascist scientists and media screaming at them to implement a lockdown. In fact some already have brought back pretty tough lockdown type measures like indoor social distancing and closing down certain hospitality venues like late night bars and clubs.
It's looking more and more as though the light at the end of the tunnel isn't an oncoming train and we really might be at the tail end of this in the UK.
Not too shabby for the boring guy.
Starting with Lord Dingleberry then working my way down.
NCC does not seem at ease with itself.
Looks like a potential LD gain. Nevertheless there are enough "Independents" to keep them in power.
Q. Why don't we have carbon capture operating in the UK yet?
A. Because twice over the government promised £1 billion of funding and then withdrew it. The first time round was slightly more complicated as the preferred project said that they needed £1.5 billion.
Hopefully this time will be different.
(I might have said that last time.)
An "ancient tradition" of corruption doesn't strike me as a tradition to be proud of.
Weird hill to die on.
I'd be staggered if the Tories don't lose more ground due to that over the coming weeks.
The Treasurer’s role is more about leaning on your friends than giving yourself though
But you can’t make the direct link to the payment, unlike Blair
In Truss we* trust.
*By we I mean readers of the Express.
If it's not a direct link then it's the most remarkable coincidence.
It's the (electoral-politically) never-wases who chucked a pile of cash at a political party and subsequently gained a seat in the legislature form which they can never be removed.
I'm sure it's always happened, but it's not right, is it?
It cannot prevent bills being passed but has on the whole highly educated people with a stake in the nation who bring their expertise to scrutinise legislation and if necessary can ask the Commons to thing again.
Indeed on the whole most Lords were at the top of their professions or fields before they became peers, most MPs however were mid tier in their professions or professional political advisers before they got elected
I get the arguments against taxpayer funding. But if we, as a public, aren't prepared to pay for politics, someone else will. And we can't be too shocked if the mega rich, the tawdry and the nutty buy up the system and define the options for the rest of us.
Doesn’t anyone else see things in this way? I can’t get my head around the enthusiasm to treat every poll outside the context of the ebb and flow of an electoral cycle
It’s like a golfer hitting his first tee shot into the water and shooting a double bogey - it doesn’t mean he’s going to card 36 over par
Two clusters selected for 'Track 1'. Scotland not one of them. Let’s see what happens next.