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Tories drop to 36% with YouGov – politicalbetting.com

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  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,123

    tlg86 said:


    Michael Vaughan
    @MichaelVaughan
    Not many English people live in London.. I need to learn a new language..
    10:23 AM · Oct 15, 2010·Twitter for iPhone

    Oh good, the outrage bus has moved onto Vaughn now, and started trawling 11 year old tweets...
    Vaughan's getting a taste of his own medicine (and he wasn't 18 when he wrote that Tweet)...

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/sportsnews/article-9647413/Michael-Vaughan-STAGGERED-ECB-didnt-diligence-emergence-Ollie-Robinsons-tweets.html

    'A few weeks ago, surely England would have known that Ollie Robinson was in their thoughts. You have to go through everything. These days on Twitter, social media it's all there for everyone to see.

    'You can't suddenly - why didn't they delete it - that's irrelevant. He tweeted what he had tweeted in 2012.

    'Yes, he was 18 but I do find that staggering that the ECB with everything, the resources that they have in their operation, they don't go through everything about every player that you pick just to make sure you have got everything covered.'
    More to the point, it is relevant to the question of character raised by Rafiq's employment, racism and bullying claims, Yorkshire's response to it and Vaughan's own article today. He is one of my favourite players and favourite captain so I take zero pleasure in finding out more about it, but there is far more justification in going through old tweets here than there was in the Ollie Robinson case.
    No pleasure here either. This is my county. All of this is making me remember something about YCC from the past, how they used to stand alone in requiring that to play for Yorkshire you had to be born in Yorkshire. This was a matter of some pride and the source of many a jocularity along the lines of "Well if it's a boy make sure the missus isn't in Lancashire when it drops" to a bloke approaching fatherhood. But maybe what it actually was was a sign of insular exceptionalism. Reminded too of Muirfield Golf Club, the last bastion (until very recently) of male only members, 'ladies' can use the social facilities if accompanied. Similar type of thing. They fought hard to keep that. It was part of their identity.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,261
    If that Pfizer news is as good as it seems, the back of my fag packet says that reduces the CFR of Covid-19 to about 0.01%, ten times LESS lethal than flu
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tory MP for Bury South Christian Wakeford walked up to Owen Paterson yesterday and called him a cunt apparently
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1456573667731771399?s=20

    Is this the same Christian Wakeford who on top of his MPs role, stayed on for over 6 months as a councillor and on council committees earning an extra £22k per year and attending only one full council meeting and one council committee meeting over that time? Surely some mistake?
    You are allowed to be an MP and a Councillor. I don't see how either role gets appropriate attention if so, but you can.
    It may be allowed but it is poor form regardless and relevant to criticising other MPs for their behaviour around outside earnings.
    Hmm, I dont think something allowable even if considered poor form is comparable to doing something that is not allowed, and thus prevent criticism from someone in the former position. Dual hattedness would still require care in conduct but being on multiple representative bodies is not in itself problematic the way a handout from a company, who will expect service, would be.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,643
    The power derived from simultaneously leading a county council and being a backbencher must be intoxicating.
  • John Burn-Murdoch
    @jburnmurdoch
    NEW: Covid cases, hospitalisations & deaths on the rise again across Europe, with rates of all three metrics surpassing the UK in many countries

    Starting in the west: Belgium, Netherlands & Germany in particular experiencing sharp increases in not only cases but ICU & deaths too
  • Andy_JS said:


    Michael Vaughan
    @MichaelVaughan
    Not many English people live in London.. I need to learn a new language..
    10:23 AM · Oct 15, 2010·Twitter for iPhone

    Is this the same Michael Vaughan who was recently lecturing people about using "batter" instead of "batsman"?
    I know Michael Vaughan and the Michael Vaughan you hear on the radio, is the Michael Vaughan trying to please the BBC bosses, not the real Michael Vaughan, who is a decent guy who did wonders as England captain.

    With that character witness, I think we can take that as confirmation he should be cancelled then.
    Oh we are starting the personal abuse are we. Just because I don't agree with YOU. No he shouldn't be cancelled. he should be himself on the radio. The person that achieved so much, not the textbook BBC drone he was shaped into.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,355
    edited November 2021


    Reuters
    @Reuters
    · 46m
    BREAKING: Pfizer says its experimental antiviral pill cuts risk of severe COVID-19 by 89% https://reut.rs/3o0RGRF



    Sek Kathiresan MD
    @skathire
    ·
    55m
    Wow, antiviral pill taken within 3d of symptoms COVID: 89% reduction in hospitalization or death

    Another
    @pfizer
    home run!

    Protease inhibitor originally developed for SARS-Cov1 in 2003 and now repurposed!


    The two treatments for covid that have emerged in the last few days seem like the road to the endgame, globally, in medical terms. Yet I suspect it will be many years until we lose the ridiculous psychological stigma of covid – I mean you see it even on PB, with axiomatic obsession over 'cases' and the 'perception' of the virus, rather than the reality.
    One interesting consequence of these new antivirals from Merck and Pfizer is that they justify the continuation of the massive level of Covid testing.

    This is because they're only effective when given in the early stages of infection. By the time the patient is unwell enough to be hospitalised it's too late for them to help. So we have to maintain widescale levels of testing to identify people who will benefit from these new treatments.

    Previously there was a strong case for stopping mass-testing and only using the ONS survey to monitor the disease, and testing of hospital admissions.
  • 1959 advert for the Guardian (in the Spectator) - I am certain Guardian readers still see themselves the same way! (I reckon "alert and aware, open-eyed and lively minded" is surely 1950speak for woke ;) )

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,123

    Sir Keir Strainface
    Sir Keir Stroopwaffel
    Sir Keir Stramadol
    Sir Keir Straitlaced

    Which best captures the ineffable tediousness of SKS?

    Suckier Starmer.
    Not keen on this game - and it's surely not the time for it when the spotlight is rightly on the ghastliness of the person SKS is manfully trying to rescue us from.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tory MP for Bury South Christian Wakeford walked up to Owen Paterson yesterday and called him a cunt apparently
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1456573667731771399?s=20

    Is this the same Christian Wakeford who on top of his MPs role, stayed on for over 6 months as a councillor and on council committees earning an extra £22k per year and attending only one full council meeting and one council committee meeting over that time? Surely some mistake?
    You are allowed to be an MP and a Councillor. I don't see how either role gets appropriate attention if so, but you can.
    It may be allowed but it is poor form regardless and relevant to criticising other MPs for their behaviour around outside earnings.
    Ben Bradley is not only MP for Mansfield but also leader of Nottinghamshire county council
    Which is fecking ridiculous.

    Being a cllr seems doable, as you can do pretty little (though many do a great deal) but cabinet positions are often full time or near it. I think Mike Hancock was a council cabinet member, but hes not an example of a great MP.

    Easier and advisable if you dont do it at all I'd say, but permissible vs not permissible is a thing still.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    Leon said:

    If that Pfizer news is as good as it seems, the back of my fag packet says that reduces the CFR of Covid-19 to about 0.01%, ten times LESS lethal than flu

    It won't matter a jot because the key with covid-19 is 'perception', not reality – I know that because I'm reminded daily of the fact, right here on PB.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,261

    1959 advert for the Guardian (in the Spectator) - I am certain Guardian readers still see themselves the same way! (I reckon "alert and aware, open-eyed and lively minded" is surely 1950speak for woke ;) )

    That actually sounds like @kinabalu describing himself, in total seriousness

    lol

  • Reuters
    @Reuters
    · 46m
    BREAKING: Pfizer says its experimental antiviral pill cuts risk of severe COVID-19 by 89% https://reut.rs/3o0RGRF



    Sek Kathiresan MD
    @skathire
    ·
    55m
    Wow, antiviral pill taken within 3d of symptoms COVID: 89% reduction in hospitalization or death

    Another
    @pfizer
    home run!

    Protease inhibitor originally developed for SARS-Cov1 in 2003 and now repurposed!


    The two treatments for covid that have emerged in the last few days seem like the road to the endgame, globally, in medical terms. Yet I suspect it will be many years until we lose the ridiculous psychological stigma of covid – I mean you see it even on PB, with axiomatic obsession over 'cases' and the 'perception' of the virus, rather than the reality.
    One interesting consequence of these new antivirals from Merck and Pfizer is that they justify the continuation of the massive level of Covid testing.

    This is because they're only effective when given in the early stages of infection. By the time the patient is unwell enough to be hospitalised it's too late for them to help. So we have to maintain widescale levels of testing to identify people who will benefit from these new treatments.

    Previously there was a strong case for stopping mass-testing and only using the ONS survey to monitor the disease, and testing of hospital admissions.
    Why not just give as an antiviral to those who are vulnerable to the virus? The tests are massively flawed.
  • kinabalu said:

    tlg86 said:


    Michael Vaughan
    @MichaelVaughan
    Not many English people live in London.. I need to learn a new language..
    10:23 AM · Oct 15, 2010·Twitter for iPhone

    Oh good, the outrage bus has moved onto Vaughn now, and started trawling 11 year old tweets...
    Vaughan's getting a taste of his own medicine (and he wasn't 18 when he wrote that Tweet)...

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/sportsnews/article-9647413/Michael-Vaughan-STAGGERED-ECB-didnt-diligence-emergence-Ollie-Robinsons-tweets.html

    'A few weeks ago, surely England would have known that Ollie Robinson was in their thoughts. You have to go through everything. These days on Twitter, social media it's all there for everyone to see.

    'You can't suddenly - why didn't they delete it - that's irrelevant. He tweeted what he had tweeted in 2012.

    'Yes, he was 18 but I do find that staggering that the ECB with everything, the resources that they have in their operation, they don't go through everything about every player that you pick just to make sure you have got everything covered.'
    More to the point, it is relevant to the question of character raised by Rafiq's employment, racism and bullying claims, Yorkshire's response to it and Vaughan's own article today. He is one of my favourite players and favourite captain so I take zero pleasure in finding out more about it, but there is far more justification in going through old tweets here than there was in the Ollie Robinson case.
    No pleasure here either. This is my county. All of this is making me remember something about YCC from the past, how they used to stand alone in requiring that to play for Yorkshire you had to be born in Yorkshire. This was a matter of some pride and the source of many a jocularity along the lines of "Well if it's a boy make sure the missus isn't in Lancashire when it drops" to a bloke approaching fatherhood. But maybe what it actually was was a sign of insular exceptionalism. Reminded too of Muirfield Golf Club, the last bastion (until very recently) of male only members, 'ladies' can use the social facilities if accompanied. Similar type of thing. They fought hard to keep that. It was part of their identity.
    The irony being that the first non Yorkshire born player to play for them was a certain Michael Vaughan!
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,758

    1959 advert for the Guardian (in the Spectator) - I am certain Guardian readers still see themselves the same way! (I reckon "alert and aware, open-eyed and lively minded" is surely 1950speak for woke ;) )

    With a black eye from the missus?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    kinabalu said:

    tlg86 said:


    Michael Vaughan
    @MichaelVaughan
    Not many English people live in London.. I need to learn a new language..
    10:23 AM · Oct 15, 2010·Twitter for iPhone

    Oh good, the outrage bus has moved onto Vaughn now, and started trawling 11 year old tweets...
    Vaughan's getting a taste of his own medicine (and he wasn't 18 when he wrote that Tweet)...

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/sportsnews/article-9647413/Michael-Vaughan-STAGGERED-ECB-didnt-diligence-emergence-Ollie-Robinsons-tweets.html

    'A few weeks ago, surely England would have known that Ollie Robinson was in their thoughts. You have to go through everything. These days on Twitter, social media it's all there for everyone to see.

    'You can't suddenly - why didn't they delete it - that's irrelevant. He tweeted what he had tweeted in 2012.

    'Yes, he was 18 but I do find that staggering that the ECB with everything, the resources that they have in their operation, they don't go through everything about every player that you pick just to make sure you have got everything covered.'
    More to the point, it is relevant to the question of character raised by Rafiq's employment, racism and bullying claims, Yorkshire's response to it and Vaughan's own article today. He is one of my favourite players and favourite captain so I take zero pleasure in finding out more about it, but there is far more justification in going through old tweets here than there was in the Ollie Robinson case.
    No pleasure here either. This is my county. All of this is making me remember something about YCC from the past, how they used to stand alone in requiring that to play for Yorkshire you had to be born in Yorkshire. This was a matter of some pride and the source of many a jocularity along the lines of "Well if it's a boy make sure the missus isn't in Lancashire when it drops" to a bloke approaching fatherhood. But maybe what it actually was was a sign of insular exceptionalism. Reminded too of Muirfield Golf Club, the last bastion (until very recently) of male only members, 'ladies' can use the social facilities if accompanied. Similar type of thing. They fought hard to keep that. It was part of their identity.
    I'm shocked. Shocked, I tell you, that you accuse Yorkshire of insular exceptionalism.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071
    edited November 2021
    Jonathan said:

    The power derived from simultaneously leading a county council and being a backbencher must be intoxicating.

    Leading a council will often be a lot more powerful as it impacts local residents than being an MP, even though they have hands tied by legislation and departmental diktat. MPs are inundated with issues they simply pass on to the council as they can do nothing, and they can rarely influence them - hence why they often bash council decisions.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,123
    edited November 2021
    Farooq said:

    Alistair said:


    Michael Vaughan
    @MichaelVaughan
    Not many English people live in London.. I need to learn a new language..
    10:23 AM · Oct 15, 2010·Twitter for iPhone

    Oh good, the outrage bus has moved onto Vaughn now, and started trawling 11 year old tweets...
    This... hasn't just been selected randomly.

    He's been accused of racism and he's gone with the "I don't have a racist bone in my body" defence.
    He doesn't have a racist bone in his body. They just happen to all be white.
    Looks like what we need is some CRT in schools. Get at the root of this - hearts & minds - before it curdles into something hard to shift.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399

    kinabalu said:

    tlg86 said:


    Michael Vaughan
    @MichaelVaughan
    Not many English people live in London.. I need to learn a new language..
    10:23 AM · Oct 15, 2010·Twitter for iPhone

    Oh good, the outrage bus has moved onto Vaughn now, and started trawling 11 year old tweets...
    Vaughan's getting a taste of his own medicine (and he wasn't 18 when he wrote that Tweet)...

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/sportsnews/article-9647413/Michael-Vaughan-STAGGERED-ECB-didnt-diligence-emergence-Ollie-Robinsons-tweets.html

    'A few weeks ago, surely England would have known that Ollie Robinson was in their thoughts. You have to go through everything. These days on Twitter, social media it's all there for everyone to see.

    'You can't suddenly - why didn't they delete it - that's irrelevant. He tweeted what he had tweeted in 2012.

    'Yes, he was 18 but I do find that staggering that the ECB with everything, the resources that they have in their operation, they don't go through everything about every player that you pick just to make sure you have got everything covered.'
    More to the point, it is relevant to the question of character raised by Rafiq's employment, racism and bullying claims, Yorkshire's response to it and Vaughan's own article today. He is one of my favourite players and favourite captain so I take zero pleasure in finding out more about it, but there is far more justification in going through old tweets here than there was in the Ollie Robinson case.
    No pleasure here either. This is my county. All of this is making me remember something about YCC from the past, how they used to stand alone in requiring that to play for Yorkshire you had to be born in Yorkshire. This was a matter of some pride and the source of many a jocularity along the lines of "Well if it's a boy make sure the missus isn't in Lancashire when it drops" to a bloke approaching fatherhood. But maybe what it actually was was a sign of insular exceptionalism. Reminded too of Muirfield Golf Club, the last bastion (until very recently) of male only members, 'ladies' can use the social facilities if accompanied. Similar type of thing. They fought hard to keep that. It was part of their identity.
    The irony being that the first non Yorkshire born player to play for them was a certain Michael Vaughan!
    Lord Hawke says Hi!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,615

    John Burn-Murdoch
    @jburnmurdoch
    NEW: Covid cases, hospitalisations & deaths on the rise again across Europe, with rates of all three metrics surpassing the UK in many countries

    Starting in the west: Belgium, Netherlands & Germany in particular experiencing sharp increases in not only cases but ICU & deaths too

    The simultaneous rise across all age groups is ominous.

    image
  • Leon said:

    1959 advert for the Guardian (in the Spectator) - I am certain Guardian readers still see themselves the same way! (I reckon "alert and aware, open-eyed and lively minded" is surely 1950speak for woke ;) )

    That actually sounds like @kinabalu describing himself, in total seriousness

    lol
    Women couldn't read, of course, in 1959.
  • HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tory MP for Bury South Christian Wakeford walked up to Owen Paterson yesterday and called him a cunt apparently
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1456573667731771399?s=20

    Is this the same Christian Wakeford who on top of his MPs role, stayed on for over 6 months as a councillor and on council committees earning an extra £22k per year and attending only one full council meeting and one council committee meeting over that time? Surely some mistake?
    You are allowed to be an MP and a Councillor. I don't see how either role gets appropriate attention if so, but you can.
    It may be allowed but it is poor form regardless and relevant to criticising other MPs for their behaviour around outside earnings.
    Ben Bradley is not only MP for Mansfield but also leader of Nottinghamshire county council
    Which is fecking ridiculous.

    What??? Thats bonkers. What a piss-take.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727
    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    This could be the next big story.

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-news/tens-thousands-unvaccinated-care-workers-22073061

    Does anyone actually agree with this?

    Yes.

    Following a fall earlier this year my nan is against her and my grandad's wishes in a care home. Care workers have a choice whether to be vaccinated or not. She has no choice but to be there.

    Throughout the pandemic my nan wouldn't let anyone into her home apart from essential people whom she'd keep a distance from, until after the vaccines were rolled out. Now she's compelled to be in a home with people who are potentially unvaccinated putting her life at risk?

    If care workers don't give enough of a shit about the people they're caring for that they will get vaccinated to protect them, then I don't think they should be in the care sector.
    I realise that we are dealing with probabilities here but vaccinated people can still pass the virus on. I know you don't like unvaccinated people - are you letting this feeling overrule logic? Just sayin'.
    I think you have hit on something here. The situation has changed from when these rules were first thought of. At that time it was thought that vaccine would grant immunity. It doesn't. As an alternative it was thought that it significantly reduced the risk of the virus being passed on because you would have a lower viral load. I do not think, with Delta, that there is any compelling evidence of that. What the vaccines do is reduce the risk to the person vaccinated and all sensible people should be vaccinated as a result.

    But can we actually say that you being vaccinated makes someone else safer? I am not sure. Maybe. Those who are not vaccinated are, I think, still more likely to become infected and therefore more likely, statistically, to infect others. Whether that risk is both robust and material needs looked at again.
    There is evidence that:

    - The chance of a selected vaccinated person becoming infected (and thus able to carry the virus) is far lower than that of a selected unvaccinated person (if you don't catch it, you can't pass it on)
    - The viral load reaches equivalent levels early on, but drops away significantly faster (remains at infectious levels about 60% as long)
    - At an equivalent viral load, vaccinated people are noticeably less infectious than unvaccinated people.

    This doesn't mean that vaccinated people cannot pass on the virus, but it does mean that they are a lot less likely to do so. You're looking at an order of magnitude drop in likelihood to infect someone between unvaccinated and vaccinated at a period of endemic (or, indeed, epidemic) virus levels.
    That's also my understanding. Being vaccinated makes you far less likely to catch Delta, and far less likely to pass it on or be seriously ill if you do.

    That's fact, isn't it? Or is it still in play as a debating point?
    The evidence points stongly that way, to variable extents depending on the study. It's a bit less certain/precise than the personal protection from being vaccinated as you can't do an RCT, only observational studies and so there is more scope for unmodelled factors/bias. So you look at differing rates of infection of people in the same house as the infected vaccinated/not vaccinated person, but the housemates may have been exposed somewhere else entirely, or at the same time as the index case, so it gets a bit muddier. But the studies I have seen all point to protection on transmission, even if you get infected in the first place (which is itself reduced too).
  • Andy_JS said:


    Michael Vaughan
    @MichaelVaughan
    Not many English people live in London.. I need to learn a new language..
    10:23 AM · Oct 15, 2010·Twitter for iPhone

    Is this the same Michael Vaughan who was recently lecturing people about using "batter" instead of "batsman"?
    I know Michael Vaughan and the Michael Vaughan you hear on the radio, is the Michael Vaughan trying to please the BBC bosses, not the real Michael Vaughan, who is a decent guy who did wonders as England captain.

    With that character witness, I think we can take that as confirmation he should be cancelled then.
    Oh we are starting the personal abuse are we. Just because I don't agree with YOU. No he shouldn't be cancelled. he should be himself on the radio. The person that achieved so much, not the textbook BBC drone he was shaped into.
    If you're going to troll the site, you should be able to handle a joke.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,189


    Reuters
    @Reuters
    · 46m
    BREAKING: Pfizer says its experimental antiviral pill cuts risk of severe COVID-19 by 89% https://reut.rs/3o0RGRF



    Sek Kathiresan MD
    @skathire
    ·
    55m
    Wow, antiviral pill taken within 3d of symptoms COVID: 89% reduction in hospitalization or death

    Another
    @pfizer
    home run!

    Protease inhibitor originally developed for SARS-Cov1 in 2003 and now repurposed!


    The two treatments for covid that have emerged in the last few days seem like the road to the endgame, globally, in medical terms. Yet I suspect it will be many years until we lose the ridiculous psychological stigma of covid – I mean you see it even on PB, with axiomatic obsession over 'cases' and the 'perception' of the virus, rather than the reality.
    One interesting consequence of these new antivirals from Merck and Pfizer is that they justify the continuation of the massive level of Covid testing.

    This is because they're only effective when given in the early stages of infection. By the time the patient is unwell enough to be hospitalised it's too late for them to help. So we have to maintain widescale levels of testing to identify people who will benefit from these new treatments.

    Previously there was a strong case for stopping mass-testing and only using the ONS survey to monitor the disease, and testing of hospital admissions.
    Why not just give as an antiviral to those who are vulnerable to the virus? The tests are massively flawed.
    The tests are pretty good. The antivirals are expensive, and giving unnecessary medical treatment to millions of people (forever?) is an incredibly stupid idea, even by your standards.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,799

    John Burn-Murdoch
    @jburnmurdoch
    NEW: Covid cases, hospitalisations & deaths on the rise again across Europe, with rates of all three metrics surpassing the UK in many countries

    Starting in the west: Belgium, Netherlands & Germany in particular experiencing sharp increases in not only cases but ICU & deaths too

    All of Europe is going to regret not running hot in the summer and autumn. They're all going to watch as the UK avoids another lockdown because of high natural immunity and very high vaccine immunity. The worst part is that they chose the Boris/Brexit derangement path of shitting on the UK strategy without actually thinking it through. NPIs to reduce transmission in a largely vaccinated population is and exercise in displacement. When we didn't have vaccines it made sense to delay infections, now that we do it doesn't and European countries have put off their exit waves to the worst possible time or they will need tough lockdowns to further displace them into the spring. Most will choose the latter path and not have a single moment of introspection at their idiotic denouncement of (now undeniably correct) the UK strategy.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,001

    Alistair said:

    NB:

    "The inventor of the technology" - conspiracy theorists claim it was someone called Robert Malone, who's been active on Youtuber conspiracy sites.

    Robert Malone wrote a paper in 1989, showing that RNA transcribed into mouse muscle cells could be made to transcribe proteins.

    This wasn't "inventing the mRNA vaccine."

    He hasn't published much or done much research in the intervening 30 years. He does, though, go on right-wing media to present conspiracy theories.

    Jon Woolf (main developer of the development of the concept to synthesise mRNA in a laboratory to trigger production of a desired protein (cited over 630 times), and described in Nature as "the first step toward making a vaccine from mRNA"), Frédéric Martinon (developed a working mRNA vaccine in animals in 1993), and Katalin Karikó (researched the use of RNA-mediated immune activation, alongside Drew Weissman) have each got far more right to be described as "the inventor of the technology."

    So you are going the smear Robert Malone because he doesn't agree. Robert Malone was a key driver in the MRNA technology, not the only one but a key one. That is beyond question.

    If you listen to what he says it makes a lot of sense, certainly backed up by hard stats about which groups have the bad outcomes overwhelmingly through this virus. He will get certain platforms denied him but that is the modern world.
    Tell me, how do you feel about Ivermectin?
    Bloody brilliant...


    ... at worming...

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    This could be the next big story.

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-news/tens-thousands-unvaccinated-care-workers-22073061

    Does anyone actually agree with this?

    Yes.

    Following a fall earlier this year my nan is against her and my grandad's wishes in a care home. Care workers have a choice whether to be vaccinated or not. She has no choice but to be there.

    Throughout the pandemic my nan wouldn't let anyone into her home apart from essential people whom she'd keep a distance from, until after the vaccines were rolled out. Now she's compelled to be in a home with people who are potentially unvaccinated putting her life at risk?

    If care workers don't give enough of a shit about the people they're caring for that they will get vaccinated to protect them, then I don't think they should be in the care sector.
    I realise that we are dealing with probabilities here but vaccinated people can still pass the virus on. I know you don't like unvaccinated people - are you letting this feeling overrule logic? Just sayin'.
    I think you have hit on something here. The situation has changed from when these rules were first thought of. At that time it was thought that vaccine would grant immunity. It doesn't. As an alternative it was thought that it significantly reduced the risk of the virus being passed on because you would have a lower viral load. I do not think, with Delta, that there is any compelling evidence of that. What the vaccines do is reduce the risk to the person vaccinated and all sensible people should be vaccinated as a result.

    But can we actually say that you being vaccinated makes someone else safer? I am not sure. Maybe. Those who are not vaccinated are, I think, still more likely to become infected and therefore more likely, statistically, to infect others. Whether that risk is both robust and material needs looked at again.
    There is evidence that:

    - The chance of a selected vaccinated person becoming infected (and thus able to carry the virus) is far lower than that of a selected unvaccinated person (if you don't catch it, you can't pass it on)
    - The viral load reaches equivalent levels early on, but drops away significantly faster (remains at infectious levels about 60% as long)
    - At an equivalent viral load, vaccinated people are noticeably less infectious than unvaccinated people.

    This doesn't mean that vaccinated people cannot pass on the virus, but it does mean that they are a lot less likely to do so. You're looking at an order of magnitude drop in likelihood to infect someone between unvaccinated and vaccinated at a period of endemic (or, indeed, epidemic) virus levels.
    That's also my understanding. Being vaccinated makes you far less likely to catch Delta, and far less likely to pass it on or be seriously ill if you do.

    That's fact, isn't it? Or is it still in play as a debating point?
    No it is absolutely not a fact. What it does do is stop vulnerable people (include obese in that), getting to the danger phase of the virus, by how many we will know much more at the end of the winter.
    You think it has no effect whatsoever on non-vulnerable people?

    Logically, if it helps people clear the virus faster by giving their immune system a head start, this would also benefit everyone else. I.e. the same effect that prevents a vulnerable person from getting seriously ill will also reduce the amount of time that a non-vulnerable person will be infectious. Despite the difficulty of controlling for very different levels of social restrictions, the data seems to confirm this.
    The best way of giving your immune system a head start is being fit and healthy, at a correct weight. I knocked this off in a day, this is the message the government has missed. They also inexplicably torpedoed the Valneva vaccine, which is much more like the traditional flu vaccine, which the MRNA stuff really isn't.

    The balance for a fit and healthy person is what is likely to cause most harm the virus or the vaccine. Plus if you have immunity, why take the injections?
    You haven't really addressed my point. The Oxford vaccine isn't based on mRNA technology so we can set aside any objections to that.

    In order to tilt the balance for a fit and healthy person against taking the vaccine, are you having to rely on undiscovered future problems emerging rather than the known short-term risks like potential blood clots or myocarditis?

    I'm against vaccine mandates and do think it should be a personal decision. I am also sympathetic to fit and healthy people who would rather take their chances with the virus (as long as they are responsible and don't recklessly spread it) but it isn't a rational calculation to choose that over the vaccine.
    The AZ Vaccine does the same thing in a different way, it also isn't a flu type vaccine. I agree about reckless spread but don't agree about rational calculation.

    For the avoidance of doubt if you are fat, very elderly or carrying existing serious illness you would be a fool not to take the injections.
    Healthy people in their 20s have died from this. Why the feck wouldn't you take the free vaccination that might well save your life?
    Indeed.

    Age and sex distribution of those in ICU in England with covid since May this year:


    Also since May, proportion of those in ICU with very severe comorbidities:

    Cardiovascular: 0.5%
    Respiratory: 1.3%
    Renal: 1.6%
    Liver: 0.5%
    Metastatic disease: 0.6%
    Haematological malignancy: 2.7%
    Immunocompromised: 5.1%

    (NB - as multiple comorbidities can present, you cannot just add these up)
  • HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tory MP for Bury South Christian Wakeford walked up to Owen Paterson yesterday and called him a cunt apparently
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1456573667731771399?s=20

    Is this the same Christian Wakeford who on top of his MPs role, stayed on for over 6 months as a councillor and on council committees earning an extra £22k per year and attending only one full council meeting and one council committee meeting over that time? Surely some mistake?
    You are allowed to be an MP and a Councillor. I don't see how either role gets appropriate attention if so, but you can.
    It may be allowed but it is poor form regardless and relevant to criticising other MPs for their behaviour around outside earnings.
    Ben Bradley is not only MP for Mansfield but also leader of Nottinghamshire county council
    So which job does he consider worthy of being part time? Or is it both? Very disrespectful to the electorate imo.
    MP is a part time job. It really should have a part time salary.

    How else do you think Ministers can do anything while still being a full time MP?
    If it were up to me I would halve the number of ministerial patronage roles, and shadows, available but in return allow ministers extra funding to hire a proxy to cover some home constituency tasks that they would otherwise do.
  • Leon said:

    If that Pfizer news is as good as it seems, the back of my fag packet says that reduces the CFR of Covid-19 to about 0.01%, ten times LESS lethal than flu

    Only if taken within 3 days of infection iirc.

    In the real world that might be an issue.
  • Alistair said:

    NB:

    "The inventor of the technology" - conspiracy theorists claim it was someone called Robert Malone, who's been active on Youtuber conspiracy sites.

    Robert Malone wrote a paper in 1989, showing that RNA transcribed into mouse muscle cells could be made to transcribe proteins.

    This wasn't "inventing the mRNA vaccine."

    He hasn't published much or done much research in the intervening 30 years. He does, though, go on right-wing media to present conspiracy theories.

    Jon Woolf (main developer of the development of the concept to synthesise mRNA in a laboratory to trigger production of a desired protein (cited over 630 times), and described in Nature as "the first step toward making a vaccine from mRNA"), Frédéric Martinon (developed a working mRNA vaccine in animals in 1993), and Katalin Karikó (researched the use of RNA-mediated immune activation, alongside Drew Weissman) have each got far more right to be described as "the inventor of the technology."

    So you are going the smear Robert Malone because he doesn't agree. Robert Malone was a key driver in the MRNA technology, not the only one but a key one. That is beyond question.

    If you listen to what he says it makes a lot of sense, certainly backed up by hard stats about which groups have the bad outcomes overwhelmingly through this virus. He will get certain platforms denied him but that is the modern world.
    Tell me, how do you feel about Ivermectin?
    Bloody brilliant...


    ... at worming...

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    This could be the next big story.

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-news/tens-thousands-unvaccinated-care-workers-22073061

    Does anyone actually agree with this?

    Yes.

    Following a fall earlier this year my nan is against her and my grandad's wishes in a care home. Care workers have a choice whether to be vaccinated or not. She has no choice but to be there.

    Throughout the pandemic my nan wouldn't let anyone into her home apart from essential people whom she'd keep a distance from, until after the vaccines were rolled out. Now she's compelled to be in a home with people who are potentially unvaccinated putting her life at risk?

    If care workers don't give enough of a shit about the people they're caring for that they will get vaccinated to protect them, then I don't think they should be in the care sector.
    I realise that we are dealing with probabilities here but vaccinated people can still pass the virus on. I know you don't like unvaccinated people - are you letting this feeling overrule logic? Just sayin'.
    I think you have hit on something here. The situation has changed from when these rules were first thought of. At that time it was thought that vaccine would grant immunity. It doesn't. As an alternative it was thought that it significantly reduced the risk of the virus being passed on because you would have a lower viral load. I do not think, with Delta, that there is any compelling evidence of that. What the vaccines do is reduce the risk to the person vaccinated and all sensible people should be vaccinated as a result.

    But can we actually say that you being vaccinated makes someone else safer? I am not sure. Maybe. Those who are not vaccinated are, I think, still more likely to become infected and therefore more likely, statistically, to infect others. Whether that risk is both robust and material needs looked at again.
    There is evidence that:

    - The chance of a selected vaccinated person becoming infected (and thus able to carry the virus) is far lower than that of a selected unvaccinated person (if you don't catch it, you can't pass it on)
    - The viral load reaches equivalent levels early on, but drops away significantly faster (remains at infectious levels about 60% as long)
    - At an equivalent viral load, vaccinated people are noticeably less infectious than unvaccinated people.

    This doesn't mean that vaccinated people cannot pass on the virus, but it does mean that they are a lot less likely to do so. You're looking at an order of magnitude drop in likelihood to infect someone between unvaccinated and vaccinated at a period of endemic (or, indeed, epidemic) virus levels.
    That's also my understanding. Being vaccinated makes you far less likely to catch Delta, and far less likely to pass it on or be seriously ill if you do.

    That's fact, isn't it? Or is it still in play as a debating point?
    No it is absolutely not a fact. What it does do is stop vulnerable people (include obese in that), getting to the danger phase of the virus, by how many we will know much more at the end of the winter.
    You think it has no effect whatsoever on non-vulnerable people?

    Logically, if it helps people clear the virus faster by giving their immune system a head start, this would also benefit everyone else. I.e. the same effect that prevents a vulnerable person from getting seriously ill will also reduce the amount of time that a non-vulnerable person will be infectious. Despite the difficulty of controlling for very different levels of social restrictions, the data seems to confirm this.
    The best way of giving your immune system a head start is being fit and healthy, at a correct weight. I knocked this off in a day, this is the message the government has missed. They also inexplicably torpedoed the Valneva vaccine, which is much more like the traditional flu vaccine, which the MRNA stuff really isn't.

    The balance for a fit and healthy person is what is likely to cause most harm the virus or the vaccine. Plus if you have immunity, why take the injections?
    You haven't really addressed my point. The Oxford vaccine isn't based on mRNA technology so we can set aside any objections to that.

    In order to tilt the balance for a fit and healthy person against taking the vaccine, are you having to rely on undiscovered future problems emerging rather than the known short-term risks like potential blood clots or myocarditis?

    I'm against vaccine mandates and do think it should be a personal decision. I am also sympathetic to fit and healthy people who would rather take their chances with the virus (as long as they are responsible and don't recklessly spread it) but it isn't a rational calculation to choose that over the vaccine.
    The AZ Vaccine does the same thing in a different way, it also isn't a flu type vaccine. I agree about reckless spread but don't agree about rational calculation.

    For the avoidance of doubt if you are fat, very elderly or carrying existing serious illness you would be a fool not to take the injections.
    Healthy people in their 20s have died from this. Why the feck wouldn't you take the free vaccination that might well save your life?
    Have they? Without pre conditions including obesity. Looked very hard and never found, myself.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,261
    I'm actually a tiny bit emosh about that Pfizer result. Probably over-reacting, but still

    If it is as good as it seems, fucking hell. GET IN
  • dixiedean said:

    kinabalu said:

    tlg86 said:


    Michael Vaughan
    @MichaelVaughan
    Not many English people live in London.. I need to learn a new language..
    10:23 AM · Oct 15, 2010·Twitter for iPhone

    Oh good, the outrage bus has moved onto Vaughn now, and started trawling 11 year old tweets...
    Vaughan's getting a taste of his own medicine (and he wasn't 18 when he wrote that Tweet)...

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/sportsnews/article-9647413/Michael-Vaughan-STAGGERED-ECB-didnt-diligence-emergence-Ollie-Robinsons-tweets.html

    'A few weeks ago, surely England would have known that Ollie Robinson was in their thoughts. You have to go through everything. These days on Twitter, social media it's all there for everyone to see.

    'You can't suddenly - why didn't they delete it - that's irrelevant. He tweeted what he had tweeted in 2012.

    'Yes, he was 18 but I do find that staggering that the ECB with everything, the resources that they have in their operation, they don't go through everything about every player that you pick just to make sure you have got everything covered.'
    More to the point, it is relevant to the question of character raised by Rafiq's employment, racism and bullying claims, Yorkshire's response to it and Vaughan's own article today. He is one of my favourite players and favourite captain so I take zero pleasure in finding out more about it, but there is far more justification in going through old tweets here than there was in the Ollie Robinson case.
    No pleasure here either. This is my county. All of this is making me remember something about YCC from the past, how they used to stand alone in requiring that to play for Yorkshire you had to be born in Yorkshire. This was a matter of some pride and the source of many a jocularity along the lines of "Well if it's a boy make sure the missus isn't in Lancashire when it drops" to a bloke approaching fatherhood. But maybe what it actually was was a sign of insular exceptionalism. Reminded too of Muirfield Golf Club, the last bastion (until very recently) of male only members, 'ladies' can use the social facilities if accompanied. Similar type of thing. They fought hard to keep that. It was part of their identity.
    The irony being that the first non Yorkshire born player to play for them was a certain Michael Vaughan!
    Lord Hawke says Hi!
    Before my time!
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,375
    edited November 2021
    kinabalu said:

    tlg86 said:


    Michael Vaughan
    @MichaelVaughan
    Not many English people live in London.. I need to learn a new language..
    10:23 AM · Oct 15, 2010·Twitter for iPhone

    Oh good, the outrage bus has moved onto Vaughn now, and started trawling 11 year old tweets...
    Vaughan's getting a taste of his own medicine (and he wasn't 18 when he wrote that Tweet)...

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/sportsnews/article-9647413/Michael-Vaughan-STAGGERED-ECB-didnt-diligence-emergence-Ollie-Robinsons-tweets.html

    'A few weeks ago, surely England would have known that Ollie Robinson was in their thoughts. You have to go through everything. These days on Twitter, social media it's all there for everyone to see.

    'You can't suddenly - why didn't they delete it - that's irrelevant. He tweeted what he had tweeted in 2012.

    'Yes, he was 18 but I do find that staggering that the ECB with everything, the resources that they have in their operation, they don't go through everything about every player that you pick just to make sure you have got everything covered.'
    More to the point, it is relevant to the question of character raised by Rafiq's employment, racism and bullying claims, Yorkshire's response to it and Vaughan's own article today. He is one of my favourite players and favourite captain so I take zero pleasure in finding out more about it, but there is far more justification in going through old tweets here than there was in the Ollie Robinson case.
    No pleasure here either. This is my county. All of this is making me remember something about YCC from the past, how they used to stand alone in requiring that to play for Yorkshire you had to be born in Yorkshire. This was a matter of some pride and the source of many a jocularity along the lines of "Well if it's a boy make sure the missus isn't in Lancashire when it drops" to a bloke approaching fatherhood. But maybe what it actually was was a sign of insular exceptionalism. Reminded too of Muirfield Golf Club, the last bastion (until very recently) of male only members, 'ladies' can use the social facilities if accompanied. Similar type of thing. They fought hard to keep that. It was part of their identity.
    Yes, the birth qualification wasn't changed until 1992 - Yorkshire then immediately signed Tendulkar, and a young Lancastrian called Vaughan became eligible. However, many of us were very critical of the club even before they changed the rules because they did so little to reach out to Yorkshire-born second generation immigrants - both the Asian heritage communities centred in Bradford, and Afro-Caribbeans in Leeds and elsewhere.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,403

    Leon said:

    If that Pfizer news is as good as it seems, the back of my fag packet says that reduces the CFR of Covid-19 to about 0.01%, ten times LESS lethal than flu

    It won't matter a jot because the key with covid-19 is 'perception', not reality – I know that because I'm reminded daily of the fact, right here on PB.
    I know what you mean, and the issue is that there is truth in that. For the non obsessives the death tolling by the BBC every night is a constant reminder, but should stand in stark contrast to the return to normality in the their daily lives. Fancy going to the cinema? A theatre? Join 50,000 others at the football? You can.

    So there is also a cognitive dissonance, and a media who thrive on bad news who are desperate for things to get worse, for a new lockdown etc etc to give them their fix. They won't admit it, but some in the media will be lookinf forward to London Bridge falling, just for the hullabaloo that will follow.

    I think that when we reach next spring, cases will have fallen, even with our ludicrous testing regime, and deaths will be much reduced (boosters plus these new medicines) then perhaps, just perhaps, we might get the end game.

    But thats still six months away...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,799
    Leon said:

    I'm actually a tiny bit emosh about that Pfizer result. Probably over-reacting, but still

    If it is as good as it seems, fucking hell. GET IN

    It's great but it's also $700 per course so not particularly accessible to developing nations. Vaccines are still the way out of this, anti-virals can be useful for the unable to vaccinate cohort bit it's not a silver bullet like vaccines.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,372

    John Burn-Murdoch
    @jburnmurdoch
    NEW: Covid cases, hospitalisations & deaths on the rise again across Europe, with rates of all three metrics surpassing the UK in many countries

    Starting in the west: Belgium, Netherlands & Germany in particular experiencing sharp increases in not only cases but ICU & deaths too

    The simultaneous rise across all age groups is ominous.

    image
    This cannot be right. Europe has done a far better job than we have, surely, or thats what COVID Twitter says.
  • Leon said:

    1959 advert for the Guardian (in the Spectator) - I am certain Guardian readers still see themselves the same way! (I reckon "alert and aware, open-eyed and lively minded" is surely 1950speak for woke ;) )

    That actually sounds like @kinabalu describing himself, in total seriousness

    lol
    Women couldn't read, of course, in 1959.
    They could of course read, it was just that their uteruses/uteri would fall out if allowed to.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,261
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    I'm actually a tiny bit emosh about that Pfizer result. Probably over-reacting, but still

    If it is as good as it seems, fucking hell. GET IN

    It's great but it's also $700 per course so not particularly accessible to developing nations. Vaccines are still the way out of this, anti-virals can be useful for the unable to vaccinate cohort bit it's not a silver bullet like vaccines.
    I strongly suspect the price will come way down very quickly as these drugs are copied. Which they will be. As with the vax
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,403

    Alistair said:

    NB:

    "The inventor of the technology" - conspiracy theorists claim it was someone called Robert Malone, who's been active on Youtuber conspiracy sites.

    Robert Malone wrote a paper in 1989, showing that RNA transcribed into mouse muscle cells could be made to transcribe proteins.

    This wasn't "inventing the mRNA vaccine."

    He hasn't published much or done much research in the intervening 30 years. He does, though, go on right-wing media to present conspiracy theories.

    Jon Woolf (main developer of the development of the concept to synthesise mRNA in a laboratory to trigger production of a desired protein (cited over 630 times), and described in Nature as "the first step toward making a vaccine from mRNA"), Frédéric Martinon (developed a working mRNA vaccine in animals in 1993), and Katalin Karikó (researched the use of RNA-mediated immune activation, alongside Drew Weissman) have each got far more right to be described as "the inventor of the technology."

    So you are going the smear Robert Malone because he doesn't agree. Robert Malone was a key driver in the MRNA technology, not the only one but a key one. That is beyond question.

    If you listen to what he says it makes a lot of sense, certainly backed up by hard stats about which groups have the bad outcomes overwhelmingly through this virus. He will get certain platforms denied him but that is the modern world.
    Tell me, how do you feel about Ivermectin?
    Bloody brilliant...


    ... at worming...

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    This could be the next big story.

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-news/tens-thousands-unvaccinated-care-workers-22073061

    Does anyone actually agree with this?

    Yes.

    Following a fall earlier this year my nan is against her and my grandad's wishes in a care home. Care workers have a choice whether to be vaccinated or not. She has no choice but to be there.

    Throughout the pandemic my nan wouldn't let anyone into her home apart from essential people whom she'd keep a distance from, until after the vaccines were rolled out. Now she's compelled to be in a home with people who are potentially unvaccinated putting her life at risk?

    If care workers don't give enough of a shit about the people they're caring for that they will get vaccinated to protect them, then I don't think they should be in the care sector.
    I realise that we are dealing with probabilities here but vaccinated people can still pass the virus on. I know you don't like unvaccinated people - are you letting this feeling overrule logic? Just sayin'.
    I think you have hit on something here. The situation has changed from when these rules were first thought of. At that time it was thought that vaccine would grant immunity. It doesn't. As an alternative it was thought that it significantly reduced the risk of the virus being passed on because you would have a lower viral load. I do not think, with Delta, that there is any compelling evidence of that. What the vaccines do is reduce the risk to the person vaccinated and all sensible people should be vaccinated as a result.

    But can we actually say that you being vaccinated makes someone else safer? I am not sure. Maybe. Those who are not vaccinated are, I think, still more likely to become infected and therefore more likely, statistically, to infect others. Whether that risk is both robust and material needs looked at again.
    There is evidence that:

    - The chance of a selected vaccinated person becoming infected (and thus able to carry the virus) is far lower than that of a selected unvaccinated person (if you don't catch it, you can't pass it on)
    - The viral load reaches equivalent levels early on, but drops away significantly faster (remains at infectious levels about 60% as long)
    - At an equivalent viral load, vaccinated people are noticeably less infectious than unvaccinated people.

    This doesn't mean that vaccinated people cannot pass on the virus, but it does mean that they are a lot less likely to do so. You're looking at an order of magnitude drop in likelihood to infect someone between unvaccinated and vaccinated at a period of endemic (or, indeed, epidemic) virus levels.
    That's also my understanding. Being vaccinated makes you far less likely to catch Delta, and far less likely to pass it on or be seriously ill if you do.

    That's fact, isn't it? Or is it still in play as a debating point?
    No it is absolutely not a fact. What it does do is stop vulnerable people (include obese in that), getting to the danger phase of the virus, by how many we will know much more at the end of the winter.
    You think it has no effect whatsoever on non-vulnerable people?

    Logically, if it helps people clear the virus faster by giving their immune system a head start, this would also benefit everyone else. I.e. the same effect that prevents a vulnerable person from getting seriously ill will also reduce the amount of time that a non-vulnerable person will be infectious. Despite the difficulty of controlling for very different levels of social restrictions, the data seems to confirm this.
    The best way of giving your immune system a head start is being fit and healthy, at a correct weight. I knocked this off in a day, this is the message the government has missed. They also inexplicably torpedoed the Valneva vaccine, which is much more like the traditional flu vaccine, which the MRNA stuff really isn't.

    The balance for a fit and healthy person is what is likely to cause most harm the virus or the vaccine. Plus if you have immunity, why take the injections?
    You haven't really addressed my point. The Oxford vaccine isn't based on mRNA technology so we can set aside any objections to that.

    In order to tilt the balance for a fit and healthy person against taking the vaccine, are you having to rely on undiscovered future problems emerging rather than the known short-term risks like potential blood clots or myocarditis?

    I'm against vaccine mandates and do think it should be a personal decision. I am also sympathetic to fit and healthy people who would rather take their chances with the virus (as long as they are responsible and don't recklessly spread it) but it isn't a rational calculation to choose that over the vaccine.
    The AZ Vaccine does the same thing in a different way, it also isn't a flu type vaccine. I agree about reckless spread but don't agree about rational calculation.

    For the avoidance of doubt if you are fat, very elderly or carrying existing serious illness you would be a fool not to take the injections.
    Healthy people in their 20s have died from this. Why the feck wouldn't you take the free vaccination that might well save your life?
    Have they? Without pre conditions including obesity. Looked very hard and never found, myself.
    You haven't looked in the right places then. Tales of marathon runners etc have been fairly common. Yes being obese is a massive risk factor, but covid is capricious, and you cannot assume the outcome just because you believe your immune system is tip-top.
  • Taz said:

    John Burn-Murdoch
    @jburnmurdoch
    NEW: Covid cases, hospitalisations & deaths on the rise again across Europe, with rates of all three metrics surpassing the UK in many countries

    Starting in the west: Belgium, Netherlands & Germany in particular experiencing sharp increases in not only cases but ICU & deaths too

    The simultaneous rise across all age groups is ominous.

    image
    This cannot be right. Europe has done a far better job than we have, surely, or thats what COVID Twitter says.
    There's going to be countries across Europe going back into lockdown this winter if they don't sort this out and get going on boosters. They've squandered the chance to get natural immunity in the summer already.

    No doubt would be parroted by many here Tweeting that we should go into lockdown too.
  • Insulate Britain blocking... Insulation

  • kamski said:


    Reuters
    @Reuters
    · 46m
    BREAKING: Pfizer says its experimental antiviral pill cuts risk of severe COVID-19 by 89% https://reut.rs/3o0RGRF



    Sek Kathiresan MD
    @skathire
    ·
    55m
    Wow, antiviral pill taken within 3d of symptoms COVID: 89% reduction in hospitalization or death

    Another
    @pfizer
    home run!

    Protease inhibitor originally developed for SARS-Cov1 in 2003 and now repurposed!


    The two treatments for covid that have emerged in the last few days seem like the road to the endgame, globally, in medical terms. Yet I suspect it will be many years until we lose the ridiculous psychological stigma of covid – I mean you see it even on PB, with axiomatic obsession over 'cases' and the 'perception' of the virus, rather than the reality.
    One interesting consequence of these new antivirals from Merck and Pfizer is that they justify the continuation of the massive level of Covid testing.

    This is because they're only effective when given in the early stages of infection. By the time the patient is unwell enough to be hospitalised it's too late for them to help. So we have to maintain widescale levels of testing to identify people who will benefit from these new treatments.

    Previously there was a strong case for stopping mass-testing and only using the ONS survey to monitor the disease, and testing of hospital admissions.
    Why not just give as an antiviral to those who are vulnerable to the virus? The tests are massively flawed.
    The tests are pretty good. The antivirals are expensive, and giving unnecessary medical treatment to millions of people (forever?) is an incredibly stupid idea, even by your standards.
    Depends on your definition of good. The Chinese flow tests have been binned in many countries, due to lack of accuracy. The PCR tests will pick up viral fragments specific to this virus but don't tell you whether the fragments are even live. So you can have a positive PCR test but have another virus live, or no virus at all.

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,989
    BREAKING - No10 announce Boris Johnson will refuse to declare how much his freebie Spanish holiday at Zac Goldsmith's villa was worth. Story incoming
    https://twitter.com/danbloom1/status/1456595675177787398
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,799
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    I'm actually a tiny bit emosh about that Pfizer result. Probably over-reacting, but still

    If it is as good as it seems, fucking hell. GET IN

    It's great but it's also $700 per course so not particularly accessible to developing nations. Vaccines are still the way out of this, anti-virals can be useful for the unable to vaccinate cohort bit it's not a silver bullet like vaccines.
    I strongly suspect the price will come way down very quickly as these drugs are copied. Which they will be. As with the vax
    Anti-virals are usually fairly expensive because the manufacturing process is horribly ineffective and you need a shit load of expensive feed in materials to get just a few doses of pure enough end product. Additionally I don't see Pfizer or Merck waving their patents for these products for generics to be easily produced and distributed. Vaccines are the way out, anti-virals are a side show. Three doses of any of the three major vaccines is how we win. The government here is missing a trick by not opening up booster doses for all age groups.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071

    Leon said:

    1959 advert for the Guardian (in the Spectator) - I am certain Guardian readers still see themselves the same way! (I reckon "alert and aware, open-eyed and lively minded" is surely 1950speak for woke ;) )

    That actually sounds like @kinabalu describing himself, in total seriousness

    lol
    Women couldn't read, of course, in 1959.
    They could of course read, it was just that their uteruses/uteri would fall out if allowed to.
    Thats just hard science, well known fact.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,287
    tlg86 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tory MP for Bury South Christian Wakeford walked up to Owen Paterson yesterday and called him a cunt apparently
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1456573667731771399?s=20

    Is this the same Christian Wakeford who on top of his MPs role, stayed on for over 6 months as a councillor and on council committees earning an extra £22k per year and attending only one full council meeting and one council committee meeting over that time? Surely some mistake?
    You are allowed to be an MP and a Councillor. I don't see how either role gets appropriate attention if so, but you can.
    It may be allowed but it is poor form regardless and relevant to criticising other MPs for their behaviour around outside earnings.
    Ben Bradley is not only MP for Mansfield but also leader of Nottinghamshire county council
    So which job does he consider worthy of being part time? Or is it both? Very disrespectful to the electorate imo.
    That applies even more so to Dan Jarvis, who is now "forced" to take his mayoral salary...

    https://order-order.com/2021/02/17/barnsley-mp-admits-hes-gone-part-time/

    Although he is standing down at the next election:

    https://order-order.com/2021/09/20/dan-jarvis-to-stand-down-as-south-yorkshire-mayor/
    Dan Jarvis's platform to be mayor was that, with no devolution deal agreed before the existence of the role was imposed by HMG, the role didn't have any of the powers it was supposed to and that he was going to campaign for a role with proper powers, a campaign that would be substantially located in Westminster. That dual role made some sense at the outset.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/apr/23/dan-jarvis-labour-sheffield-city-region-mayor-election

    I suppose Ben Bradley could make a similar argument around the funneling of government money if he wished.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    1959 advert for the Guardian (in the Spectator) - I am certain Guardian readers still see themselves the same way! (I reckon "alert and aware, open-eyed and lively minded" is surely 1950speak for woke ;) )

    That actually sounds like @kinabalu describing himself, in total seriousness

    lol
    Women couldn't read, of course, in 1959.
    They could of course read, it was just that their uteruses/uteri would fall out if allowed to.
    Thats just hard science, well known fact.
    Suggesting otherwise is Woke and must be resisted at all costs.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,261
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    I'm actually a tiny bit emosh about that Pfizer result. Probably over-reacting, but still

    If it is as good as it seems, fucking hell. GET IN

    It's great but it's also $700 per course so not particularly accessible to developing nations. Vaccines are still the way out of this, anti-virals can be useful for the unable to vaccinate cohort bit it's not a silver bullet like vaccines.
    Even at $700 these drugs are massively cost-effective (and, as I say below, I am sure the cost will come down sharp and fast)

    How much does it cost to treat a Covid sufferer in hospital for a week or two? Must be close to $700, especially if you add in THEIR lost earnings and all the other ramifications of hospitalisation on the economy

    How much does it cost to treat someone in ICU for a week? That must be many thousands

    In Canada the cost of ICU treatment has been estimated at $1,500 a DAY

    https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/9674469/


    A $700 course of drugs, even if expensive, is in fact much cheaper for everyone. I predict (if these drugs are as good as they appear) they will be widely used in developed and middle income countries with vulnerable people. It is REALLY poor countries that will go without, unless the world gets together to help them, which we must

    Along with vaccines these drugs are an actual EXIT from Covid-19

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,246

    Alistair said:

    NB:

    "The inventor of the technology" - conspiracy theorists claim it was someone called Robert Malone, who's been active on Youtuber conspiracy sites.

    Robert Malone wrote a paper in 1989, showing that RNA transcribed into mouse muscle cells could be made to transcribe proteins.

    This wasn't "inventing the mRNA vaccine."

    He hasn't published much or done much research in the intervening 30 years. He does, though, go on right-wing media to present conspiracy theories.

    Jon Woolf (main developer of the development of the concept to synthesise mRNA in a laboratory to trigger production of a desired protein (cited over 630 times), and described in Nature as "the first step toward making a vaccine from mRNA"), Frédéric Martinon (developed a working mRNA vaccine in animals in 1993), and Katalin Karikó (researched the use of RNA-mediated immune activation, alongside Drew Weissman) have each got far more right to be described as "the inventor of the technology."

    So you are going the smear Robert Malone because he doesn't agree. Robert Malone was a key driver in the MRNA technology, not the only one but a key one. That is beyond question.

    If you listen to what he says it makes a lot of sense, certainly backed up by hard stats about which groups have the bad outcomes overwhelmingly through this virus. He will get certain platforms denied him but that is the modern world.
    Tell me, how do you feel about Ivermectin?
    Bloody brilliant...


    ... at worming...
    What about hot broth?
  • kinabalu said:

    tlg86 said:


    Michael Vaughan
    @MichaelVaughan
    Not many English people live in London.. I need to learn a new language..
    10:23 AM · Oct 15, 2010·Twitter for iPhone

    Oh good, the outrage bus has moved onto Vaughn now, and started trawling 11 year old tweets...
    Vaughan's getting a taste of his own medicine (and he wasn't 18 when he wrote that Tweet)...

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/sportsnews/article-9647413/Michael-Vaughan-STAGGERED-ECB-didnt-diligence-emergence-Ollie-Robinsons-tweets.html

    'A few weeks ago, surely England would have known that Ollie Robinson was in their thoughts. You have to go through everything. These days on Twitter, social media it's all there for everyone to see.

    'You can't suddenly - why didn't they delete it - that's irrelevant. He tweeted what he had tweeted in 2012.

    'Yes, he was 18 but I do find that staggering that the ECB with everything, the resources that they have in their operation, they don't go through everything about every player that you pick just to make sure you have got everything covered.'
    More to the point, it is relevant to the question of character raised by Rafiq's employment, racism and bullying claims, Yorkshire's response to it and Vaughan's own article today. He is one of my favourite players and favourite captain so I take zero pleasure in finding out more about it, but there is far more justification in going through old tweets here than there was in the Ollie Robinson case.
    No pleasure here either. This is my county. All of this is making me remember something about YCC from the past, how they used to stand alone in requiring that to play for Yorkshire you had to be born in Yorkshire. This was a matter of some pride and the source of many a jocularity along the lines of "Well if it's a boy make sure the missus isn't in Lancashire when it drops" to a bloke approaching fatherhood. But maybe what it actually was was a sign of insular exceptionalism. Reminded too of Muirfield Golf Club, the last bastion (until very recently) of male only members, 'ladies' can use the social facilities if accompanied. Similar type of thing. They fought hard to keep that. It was part of their identity.
    Yes, the birth qualification wasn't changed until 1992 - Yorkshire then immediately signed Tendulkar, and a young Lancastrian called Vaughan became eligible. However, many of us were very critical of the club even before they changed the rules because they did so little to reach out to Yorkshire-born second generation immigrants - both the Asian heritage communities centred in Bradford, and Afro-Caribbeans in Leeds and elsewhere.
    I remember when there was a huge bruhaha at YCCC because they'd invited John Major to unveil a monument to Len Hutton. It was regarded as simply outrageous that Major, then president of Surrey Cricket Club, should be allowed to trespass upon a Yorkshire event. The fact he was a huge cricket aficionado and former British prime minister carried no weight.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited November 2021
    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING - No10 announce Boris Johnson will refuse to declare how much his freebie Spanish holiday at Zac Goldsmith's villa was worth. Story incoming
    https://twitter.com/danbloom1/status/1456595675177787398

    I don’t think this story cuts through.

    People know what corruption is. And that ain’t it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,804
    Omnium said:

    1959 advert for the Guardian (in the Spectator) - I am certain Guardian readers still see themselves the same way! (I reckon "alert and aware, open-eyed and lively minded" is surely 1950speak for woke ;) )

    With a black eye from the missus?
    I always thought this delusional sense of moral and intellectual superiority was a recent affliction. It appears not.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Leon said:

    RobD said:

    MattW said:

    Sek Kathiresan MD
    @skathire
    ·
    55m
    Wow, antiviral pill taken within 3d of symptoms COVID: 89% reduction in hospitalization or death

    Another
    @pfizer
    home run!

    Protease inhibitor originally developed for SARS-Cov1 in 2003 and now repurposed!

    If correct, that is the kind of result that stops the trial and turns it into an emergency approved treatment....
    So do we have an exclusive deal for the first 10 million of these? :smile:
    Only quarter of a million. But that's enough to cover all hospitalisations for a good while, which would be overkill.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/britain-secures-covid-19-antivirals-merck-pfizer-2021-10-20/
    That's incredibly good news. If it pans out as suggested that's the end of this fucking virus. That plus vaccines. It's done
    We’ve been down this route before with Tamiflu

    You need a lot to pieces to work

    1. Patient presents with symptoms
    2. Gets to medical professional
    3. Gets PCR with results back
    4. Takes pill

    All within 72 hours

    Not impossible. But not trivial.

    Depending on SAE profile you could skip the results piece and start pre-emotive treatment
  • Andy_JS said:


    Michael Vaughan
    @MichaelVaughan
    Not many English people live in London.. I need to learn a new language..
    10:23 AM · Oct 15, 2010·Twitter for iPhone

    Is this the same Michael Vaughan who was recently lecturing people about using "batter" instead of "batsman"?
    I know Michael Vaughan and the Michael Vaughan you hear on the radio, is the Michael Vaughan trying to please the BBC bosses, not the real Michael Vaughan, who is a decent guy who did wonders as England captain.

    With that character witness, I think we can take that as confirmation he should be cancelled then.
    Oh we are starting the personal abuse are we. Just because I don't agree with YOU. No he shouldn't be cancelled. he should be himself on the radio. The person that achieved so much, not the textbook BBC drone he was shaped into.
    If you're going to troll the site, you should be able to handle a joke.
    I am not trolling anything. I just am not convinced by the MRNA Vaccines for fit and healthy people in terms of risk/reward. I haven't abused anybody, never would. If you don't agree fine, tell me why I am wrong, fine. Personal abuse, uncalled for.
  • Quietly it seems major change is happening in Glasgow.

    AEP in positive mood for the third day in row. Unprecedented!!


    "Pakistan’s climate chief Malik Aslam was effusive in his praise, saying the British had pulled an impossible rabbit out of the hat, a view widely shared among officials from the developing world at this COP26."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/11/05/coal-power-consigned-history-glasgow/
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,246
    edited November 2021

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tory MP for Bury South Christian Wakeford walked up to Owen Paterson yesterday and called him a cunt apparently
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1456573667731771399?s=20

    Is this the same Christian Wakeford who on top of his MPs role, stayed on for over 6 months as a councillor and on council committees earning an extra £22k per year and attending only one full council meeting and one council committee meeting over that time? Surely some mistake?
    You are allowed to be an MP and a Councillor. I don't see how either role gets appropriate attention if so, but you can.
    It may be allowed but it is poor form regardless and relevant to criticising other MPs for their behaviour around outside earnings.
    Ben Bradley is not only MP for Mansfield but also leader of Nottinghamshire county council
    Which is fecking ridiculous.

    What??? Thats bonkers. What a piss-take.
    Given the social work nature of much of MPs work etc I would say that it is a completely different league to taking piles of cash for access.

    Is it that different from being both an MP and a Minister? Two rather different jobs.....

    EDIT: I would prefer, on balance, that double jobbing doesn't happen. But on the scale of problems effecting public life, an MP being a councillor is a 1.2 out of 10, as opposed to the current issue, which is a 6 out of 10
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    Leon said:

    If that Pfizer news is as good as it seems, the back of my fag packet says that reduces the CFR of Covid-19 to about 0.01%, ten times LESS lethal than flu

    It won't matter a jot because the key with covid-19 is 'perception', not reality – I know that because I'm reminded daily of the fact, right here on PB.
    I know what you mean, and the issue is that there is truth in that. For the non obsessives the death tolling by the BBC every night is a constant reminder, but should stand in stark contrast to the return to normality in the their daily lives. Fancy going to the cinema? A theatre? Join 50,000 others at the football? You can.

    So there is also a cognitive dissonance, and a media who thrive on bad news who are desperate for things to get worse, for a new lockdown etc etc to give them their fix. They won't admit it, but some in the media will be lookinf forward to London Bridge falling, just for the hullabaloo that will follow.

    I think that when we reach next spring, cases will have fallen, even with our ludicrous testing regime, and deaths will be much reduced (boosters plus these new medicines) then perhaps, just perhaps, we might get the end game.

    But thats still six months away...
    Even if/when we get to that stage, there will still be calls to be "cautious" as "it can always come back". He annoys me – but perhaps @Stodge is actually right and the only thing that matters is perception. I mean, I'm a rational guy who focuses on the reality, but maybe I'm a fool for doing that, and instead should live my life in daily fear regardless of the data.
  • MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    I'm actually a tiny bit emosh about that Pfizer result. Probably over-reacting, but still

    If it is as good as it seems, fucking hell. GET IN

    It's great but it's also $700 per course so not particularly accessible to developing nations. Vaccines are still the way out of this, anti-virals can be useful for the unable to vaccinate cohort bit it's not a silver bullet like vaccines.
    I strongly suspect the price will come way down very quickly as these drugs are copied. Which they will be. As with the vax
    Anti-virals are usually fairly expensive because the manufacturing process is horribly ineffective and you need a shit load of expensive feed in materials to get just a few doses of pure enough end product. Additionally I don't see Pfizer or Merck waving their patents for these products for generics to be easily produced and distributed. Vaccines are the way out, anti-virals are a side show. Three doses of any of the three major vaccines is how we win. The government here is missing a trick by not opening up booster doses for all age groups.
    Merck have already licensed the drug for other manufacturers to make, and Pfizer have said they'll offer tiered pricing. And of course other anti-virals are being developed.

    They could be a really useful addition to the armoury.

    More details here:

    https://www.statnews.com/2021/11/05/experimental-pfizer-pill-prevents-covid-hospitalizations-and-deaths/
  • MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    I'm actually a tiny bit emosh about that Pfizer result. Probably over-reacting, but still

    If it is as good as it seems, fucking hell. GET IN

    It's great but it's also $700 per course so not particularly accessible to developing nations. Vaccines are still the way out of this, anti-virals can be useful for the unable to vaccinate cohort bit it's not a silver bullet like vaccines.
    I strongly suspect the price will come way down very quickly as these drugs are copied. Which they will be. As with the vax
    Anti-virals are usually fairly expensive because the manufacturing process is horribly ineffective and you need a shit load of expensive feed in materials to get just a few doses of pure enough end product. Additionally I don't see Pfizer or Merck waving their patents for these products for generics to be easily produced and distributed. Vaccines are the way out, anti-virals are a side show. Three doses of any of the three major vaccines is how we win. The government here is missing a trick by not opening up booster doses for all age groups.
    They're doing almost half a million jabs a day now again at least. Once the boosters are done (or near done) for the over 50s it should be opened up to the rest of us. I'm 39 and I'd definitely take a booster if its offered.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,261
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    I'm actually a tiny bit emosh about that Pfizer result. Probably over-reacting, but still

    If it is as good as it seems, fucking hell. GET IN

    It's great but it's also $700 per course so not particularly accessible to developing nations. Vaccines are still the way out of this, anti-virals can be useful for the unable to vaccinate cohort bit it's not a silver bullet like vaccines.
    I strongly suspect the price will come way down very quickly as these drugs are copied. Which they will be. As with the vax
    Anti-virals are usually fairly expensive because the manufacturing process is horribly ineffective and you need a shit load of expensive feed in materials to get just a few doses of pure enough end product. Additionally I don't see Pfizer or Merck waving their patents for these products for generics to be easily produced and distributed. Vaccines are the way out, anti-virals are a side show. Three doses of any of the three major vaccines is how we win. The government here is missing a trick by not opening up booster doses for all age groups.
    The Russians and Chinese will have their spies on this tomorrow., They will be copied

    That's "bad" but also good

    More maths

    The UK has 250,000 doses (or courses) of this apparent Pfizer game-changer


    That's £175m, at $700 a pop. Quite a lot of money. But set against the overwhelming cost of a crashed health system, or another lockdown, or 50,000 dead and 200,000 in hospital, it is fuck all


    So we will have to spend £175m every winter to avoid Covid horrors? It's peanuts. We've spent 300 BILLION so far

    Most countries will be able to afford this
  • Quietly it seems major change is happening in Glasgow.

    AEP in positive mood for the third day in row. Unprecedented!!

    Now I'm really worried. This has to be a portent of doom.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,804


    Alex Wickham
    @alexwickham
    ·
    4h
    The government has made 36 U-turns in 23 months, POLITICO's
    @9andrewmcdonald
    has counted https://politi.co/3svJcDk

    I remember a lady who was not for turning. U turns in themselves are not a bad thing and show that the government is willing to correct mistakes. Deeply stupid behaviour, such as we have seen over the last 48 hours, is of course a different matter.
  • ping said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING - No10 announce Boris Johnson will refuse to declare how much his freebie Spanish holiday at Zac Goldsmith's villa was worth. Story incoming
    https://twitter.com/danbloom1/status/1456595675177787398

    I don’t think this story cuts through.

    People know what corruption is. And that ain’t it.
    Exactly. Boris delivered Brexit so we could kick out politicians we didn't like and not have to suffer unelected bureaucrats. I don't get why people think him having a holiday with his mates matters much.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,758
    DavidL said:

    Omnium said:

    1959 advert for the Guardian (in the Spectator) - I am certain Guardian readers still see themselves the same way! (I reckon "alert and aware, open-eyed and lively minded" is surely 1950speak for woke ;) )

    With a black eye from the missus?
    I always thought this delusional sense of moral and intellectual superiority was a recent affliction. It appears not.
    It's a very frustrating newspaper - some decent journalism, but far too much attitude with it.
    (Declining along with all the other papers now)
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,403

    Leon said:

    If that Pfizer news is as good as it seems, the back of my fag packet says that reduces the CFR of Covid-19 to about 0.01%, ten times LESS lethal than flu

    It won't matter a jot because the key with covid-19 is 'perception', not reality – I know that because I'm reminded daily of the fact, right here on PB.
    I know what you mean, and the issue is that there is truth in that. For the non obsessives the death tolling by the BBC every night is a constant reminder, but should stand in stark contrast to the return to normality in the their daily lives. Fancy going to the cinema? A theatre? Join 50,000 others at the football? You can.

    So there is also a cognitive dissonance, and a media who thrive on bad news who are desperate for things to get worse, for a new lockdown etc etc to give them their fix. They won't admit it, but some in the media will be lookinf forward to London Bridge falling, just for the hullabaloo that will follow.

    I think that when we reach next spring, cases will have fallen, even with our ludicrous testing regime, and deaths will be much reduced (boosters plus these new medicines) then perhaps, just perhaps, we might get the end game.

    But thats still six months away...
    Even if/when we get to that stage, there will still be calls to be "cautious" as "it can always come back". He annoys me – but perhaps @Stodge is actually right and the only thing that matters is perception. I mean, I'm a rational guy who focuses on the reality, but maybe I'm a fool for doing that, and instead should live my life in daily fear regardless of the data.
    No no - you and I are on the same page, and its a different page to Stodge. However, he is perhaps more in touch with how some people are perceiving things right now. The big issue that many who are in favour of just a few restrictions to get case down is that its not without cost. Millions of people in England are living life pretty much as normal now. Thats why we put up with restrictions, to get to this point. I know some think that any death from covid is one too many, but they don't seem to think that about the 90% of other deaths each week.
  • Alistair said:

    NB:

    "The inventor of the technology" - conspiracy theorists claim it was someone called Robert Malone, who's been active on Youtuber conspiracy sites.

    Robert Malone wrote a paper in 1989, showing that RNA transcribed into mouse muscle cells could be made to transcribe proteins.

    This wasn't "inventing the mRNA vaccine."

    He hasn't published much or done much research in the intervening 30 years. He does, though, go on right-wing media to present conspiracy theories.

    Jon Woolf (main developer of the development of the concept to synthesise mRNA in a laboratory to trigger production of a desired protein (cited over 630 times), and described in Nature as "the first step toward making a vaccine from mRNA"), Frédéric Martinon (developed a working mRNA vaccine in animals in 1993), and Katalin Karikó (researched the use of RNA-mediated immune activation, alongside Drew Weissman) have each got far more right to be described as "the inventor of the technology."

    So you are going the smear Robert Malone because he doesn't agree. Robert Malone was a key driver in the MRNA technology, not the only one but a key one. That is beyond question.

    If you listen to what he says it makes a lot of sense, certainly backed up by hard stats about which groups have the bad outcomes overwhelmingly through this virus. He will get certain platforms denied him but that is the modern world.
    Tell me, how do you feel about Ivermectin?
    Bloody brilliant...


    ... at worming...

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    This could be the next big story.

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-news/tens-thousands-unvaccinated-care-workers-22073061

    Does anyone actually agree with this?

    Yes.

    Following a fall earlier this year my nan is against her and my grandad's wishes in a care home. Care workers have a choice whether to be vaccinated or not. She has no choice but to be there.

    Throughout the pandemic my nan wouldn't let anyone into her home apart from essential people whom she'd keep a distance from, until after the vaccines were rolled out. Now she's compelled to be in a home with people who are potentially unvaccinated putting her life at risk?

    If care workers don't give enough of a shit about the people they're caring for that they will get vaccinated to protect them, then I don't think they should be in the care sector.
    I realise that we are dealing with probabilities here but vaccinated people can still pass the virus on. I know you don't like unvaccinated people - are you letting this feeling overrule logic? Just sayin'.
    I think you have hit on something here. The situation has changed from when these rules were first thought of. At that time it was thought that vaccine would grant immunity. It doesn't. As an alternative it was thought that it significantly reduced the risk of the virus being passed on because you would have a lower viral load. I do not think, with Delta, that there is any compelling evidence of that. What the vaccines do is reduce the risk to the person vaccinated and all sensible people should be vaccinated as a result.

    But can we actually say that you being vaccinated makes someone else safer? I am not sure. Maybe. Those who are not vaccinated are, I think, still more likely to become infected and therefore more likely, statistically, to infect others. Whether that risk is both robust and material needs looked at again.
    There is evidence that:

    - The chance of a selected vaccinated person becoming infected (and thus able to carry the virus) is far lower than that of a selected unvaccinated person (if you don't catch it, you can't pass it on)
    - The viral load reaches equivalent levels early on, but drops away significantly faster (remains at infectious levels about 60% as long)
    - At an equivalent viral load, vaccinated people are noticeably less infectious than unvaccinated people.

    This doesn't mean that vaccinated people cannot pass on the virus, but it does mean that they are a lot less likely to do so. You're looking at an order of magnitude drop in likelihood to infect someone between unvaccinated and vaccinated at a period of endemic (or, indeed, epidemic) virus levels.
    That's also my understanding. Being vaccinated makes you far less likely to catch Delta, and far less likely to pass it on or be seriously ill if you do.

    That's fact, isn't it? Or is it still in play as a debating point?
    No it is absolutely not a fact. What it does do is stop vulnerable people (include obese in that), getting to the danger phase of the virus, by how many we will know much more at the end of the winter.
    You think it has no effect whatsoever on non-vulnerable people?

    Logically, if it helps people clear the virus faster by giving their immune system a head start, this would also benefit everyone else. I.e. the same effect that prevents a vulnerable person from getting seriously ill will also reduce the amount of time that a non-vulnerable person will be infectious. Despite the difficulty of controlling for very different levels of social restrictions, the data seems to confirm this.
    The best way of giving your immune system a head start is being fit and healthy, at a correct weight. I knocked this off in a day, this is the message the government has missed. They also inexplicably torpedoed the Valneva vaccine, which is much more like the traditional flu vaccine, which the MRNA stuff really isn't.

    The balance for a fit and healthy person is what is likely to cause most harm the virus or the vaccine. Plus if you have immunity, why take the injections?
    You haven't really addressed my point. The Oxford vaccine isn't based on mRNA technology so we can set aside any objections to that.

    In order to tilt the balance for a fit and healthy person against taking the vaccine, are you having to rely on undiscovered future problems emerging rather than the known short-term risks like potential blood clots or myocarditis?

    I'm against vaccine mandates and do think it should be a personal decision. I am also sympathetic to fit and healthy people who would rather take their chances with the virus (as long as they are responsible and don't recklessly spread it) but it isn't a rational calculation to choose that over the vaccine.
    The AZ Vaccine does the same thing in a different way, it also isn't a flu type vaccine. I agree about reckless spread but don't agree about rational calculation.

    For the avoidance of doubt if you are fat, very elderly or carrying existing serious illness you would be a fool not to take the injections.
    Healthy people in their 20s have died from this. Why the feck wouldn't you take the free vaccination that might well save your life?
    Have they? Without pre conditions including obesity. Looked very hard and never found, myself.
    You haven't looked in the right places then. Tales of marathon runners etc have been fairly common. Yes being obese is a massive risk factor, but covid is capricious, and you cannot assume the outcome just because you believe your immune system is tip-top.
    Tales, is the right word there.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,355
    MaxPB said:

    John Burn-Murdoch
    @jburnmurdoch
    NEW: Covid cases, hospitalisations & deaths on the rise again across Europe, with rates of all three metrics surpassing the UK in many countries

    Starting in the west: Belgium, Netherlands & Germany in particular experiencing sharp increases in not only cases but ICU & deaths too

    All of Europe is going to regret not running hot in the summer and autumn. They're all going to watch as the UK avoids another lockdown because of high natural immunity and very high vaccine immunity. The worst part is that they chose the Boris/Brexit derangement path of shitting on the UK strategy without actually thinking it through. NPIs to reduce transmission in a largely vaccinated population is and exercise in displacement. When we didn't have vaccines it made sense to delay infections, now that we do it doesn't and European countries have put off their exit waves to the worst possible time or they will need tough lockdowns to further displace them into the spring. Most will choose the latter path and not have a single moment of introspection at their idiotic denouncement of (now undeniably correct) the UK strategy.
    Do the new antivirals change this calculus? If they can get hold of enough of them it would do a lot to keep people out of hospital as they go through the exit wave. Though they might need to increase testing.
  • Good that someone is speaking up for family porn.


  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,799
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    I'm actually a tiny bit emosh about that Pfizer result. Probably over-reacting, but still

    If it is as good as it seems, fucking hell. GET IN

    It's great but it's also $700 per course so not particularly accessible to developing nations. Vaccines are still the way out of this, anti-virals can be useful for the unable to vaccinate cohort bit it's not a silver bullet like vaccines.
    I strongly suspect the price will come way down very quickly as these drugs are copied. Which they will be. As with the vax
    Anti-virals are usually fairly expensive because the manufacturing process is horribly ineffective and you need a shit load of expensive feed in materials to get just a few doses of pure enough end product. Additionally I don't see Pfizer or Merck waving their patents for these products for generics to be easily produced and distributed. Vaccines are the way out, anti-virals are a side show. Three doses of any of the three major vaccines is how we win. The government here is missing a trick by not opening up booster doses for all age groups.
    The Russians and Chinese will have their spies on this tomorrow., They will be copied

    That's "bad" but also good

    More maths

    The UK has 250,000 doses (or courses) of this apparent Pfizer game-changer


    That's £175m, at $700 a pop. Quite a lot of money. But set against the overwhelming cost of a crashed health system, or another lockdown, or 50,000 dead and 200,000 in hospital, it is fuck all


    So we will have to spend £175m every winter to avoid Covid horrors? It's peanuts. We've spent 300 BILLION so far

    Most countries will be able to afford this
    I agree with you that they will be a useful tool, I just don't think it's as big of a deal as you think is. As Charles has outlined the use of these needs a lot of stars to align. When they do it will prevent a lot of people from needing ICU treatment which is a huge benefit, but there will be a lot of cases where this doesn't happen. Really the silver bullet is preventing people from getting it in the first place which means giving everyone three vaccine doses and that should be the target, produce 20bn doses of vaccines in the next year.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,261
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    1959 advert for the Guardian (in the Spectator) - I am certain Guardian readers still see themselves the same way! (I reckon "alert and aware, open-eyed and lively minded" is surely 1950speak for woke ;) )

    That actually sounds like @kinabalu describing himself, in total seriousness

    lol
    I get the Times actually. If you really want to know I am not a good person but I strive to be. I'm full of all sorts of bias and prejudice, some trivial some less so, but I don't celebrate this in myself, I don't wallow in it, or try and justify it, I fight it. Using logic, mainly, and the core egalitarianism felt in my bones, I self-audit and progress, think clearly and progress, and the description I'd want for myself is therefore exactly this - a Clear Thinking Progressive. But as I say, I get the Times.
    But it doesn't just echo your description of yourself, it has your exact TONE OF VOICE

    It is identical


    "I am at once a man alert, open eyed and lively minded. A man who has come of age mentally. In short, a man of judgement. That's me. Kinabalu"

    That's pure @kinabalu from the vanity to the pompousness to the precise, slightly fastidious use of commas
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,403
    DavidL said:


    Alex Wickham
    @alexwickham
    ·
    4h
    The government has made 36 U-turns in 23 months, POLITICO's
    @9andrewmcdonald
    has counted https://politi.co/3svJcDk

    I remember a lady who was not for turning. U turns in themselves are not a bad thing and show that the government is willing to correct mistakes. Deeply stupid behaviour, such as we have seen over the last 48 hours, is of course a different matter.
    I have two thoughts on this. One, I hate the carping about U-turns. If you make a mistake, then changing your mind should be encouraged. Its sensible.

    Two, the current muppets in charge are making too many mistakes in the first place, even if the u-turns correct them pretty swiftly. They need some better advice, or a change at the top, or both.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,131
    edited November 2021
    ping said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING - No10 announce Boris Johnson will refuse to declare how much his freebie Spanish holiday at Zac Goldsmith's villa was worth. Story incoming
    https://twitter.com/danbloom1/status/1456595675177787398

    I don’t think this story cuts through.

    People know what corruption is. And that ain’t it.
    I partly agree with that. People much more often mention the uninvestigated Covid contracts, most commonly of all, and then the party donations. That's why Johnson will hugely want to avoid any momentum developing in those areas as well. A good outcome at COP26 will also distract attention from the festering problems of government culture for a while longer, and maybe keep the parties at parity.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tory MP for Bury South Christian Wakeford walked up to Owen Paterson yesterday and called him a cunt apparently
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1456573667731771399?s=20

    Is this the same Christian Wakeford who on top of his MPs role, stayed on for over 6 months as a councillor and on council committees earning an extra £22k per year and attending only one full council meeting and one council committee meeting over that time? Surely some mistake?
    You are allowed to be an MP and a Councillor. I don't see how either role gets appropriate attention if so, but you can.
    It may be allowed but it is poor form regardless and relevant to criticising other MPs for their behaviour around outside earnings.
    Ben Bradley is not only MP for Mansfield but also leader of Nottinghamshire county council
    Which is fecking ridiculous.

    What??? Thats bonkers. What a piss-take.
    It’s also a governance issue

    If the council takes a decision you don’t like as a voter you can appeal to your MP to get involved. You can’t if they are the same person
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,403

    MaxPB said:

    John Burn-Murdoch
    @jburnmurdoch
    NEW: Covid cases, hospitalisations & deaths on the rise again across Europe, with rates of all three metrics surpassing the UK in many countries

    Starting in the west: Belgium, Netherlands & Germany in particular experiencing sharp increases in not only cases but ICU & deaths too

    All of Europe is going to regret not running hot in the summer and autumn. They're all going to watch as the UK avoids another lockdown because of high natural immunity and very high vaccine immunity. The worst part is that they chose the Boris/Brexit derangement path of shitting on the UK strategy without actually thinking it through. NPIs to reduce transmission in a largely vaccinated population is and exercise in displacement. When we didn't have vaccines it made sense to delay infections, now that we do it doesn't and European countries have put off their exit waves to the worst possible time or they will need tough lockdowns to further displace them into the spring. Most will choose the latter path and not have a single moment of introspection at their idiotic denouncement of (now undeniably correct) the UK strategy.
    Do the new antivirals change this calculus? If they can get hold of enough of them it would do a lot to keep people out of hospital as they go through the exit wave. Though they might need to increase testing.
    Probably not because they are not even approved in the EU yet, and then there will be a haggling war for 6 months...
  • ping said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING - No10 announce Boris Johnson will refuse to declare how much his freebie Spanish holiday at Zac Goldsmith's villa was worth. Story incoming
    https://twitter.com/danbloom1/status/1456595675177787398

    I don’t think this story cuts through.

    People know what corruption is. And that ain’t it.
    Exactly. Boris delivered Brexit so we could kick out politicians we didn't like and not have to suffer unelected bureaucrats. I don't get why people think him having a holiday with his mates matters much.
    In isolation? You're right.

    But. They're being investigated for who paid for the Downing Street flat refurb and a stack of other stuff that has to be declared and wasn't / isn't. By itself that would be a minor ripple, but straight off the back of lobbygate?

    How many hundreds of billions of our money are people prepared for the Tories to give to their mates?
  • ping said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING - No10 announce Boris Johnson will refuse to declare how much his freebie Spanish holiday at Zac Goldsmith's villa was worth. Story incoming
    https://twitter.com/danbloom1/status/1456595675177787398

    I don’t think this story cuts through.

    People know what corruption is. And that ain’t it.
    Boris's holiday at Chez Zac does not look corrupt until PMQs when Starmer asks how many such holidays there were before Zac was ennobled. And Boris would also be breaking the ministerial and MPs' rules on disclosure so my guess is we are being trolled.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,001

    Andy_JS said:


    Michael Vaughan
    @MichaelVaughan
    Not many English people live in London.. I need to learn a new language..
    10:23 AM · Oct 15, 2010·Twitter for iPhone

    Is this the same Michael Vaughan who was recently lecturing people about using "batter" instead of "batsman"?
    I know Michael Vaughan and the Michael Vaughan you hear on the radio, is the Michael Vaughan trying to please the BBC bosses, not the real Michael Vaughan, who is a decent guy who did wonders as England captain.

    With that character witness, I think we can take that as confirmation he should be cancelled then.
    Oh we are starting the personal abuse are we. Just because I don't agree with YOU. No he shouldn't be cancelled. he should be himself on the radio. The person that achieved so much, not the textbook BBC drone he was shaped into.
    If you're going to troll the site, you should be able to handle a joke.
    I am not trolling anything. I just am not convinced by the MRNA Vaccines for fit and healthy people in terms of risk/reward. I haven't abused anybody, never would. If you don't agree fine, tell me why I am wrong, fine. Personal abuse, uncalled for.
    It's quite interesting that virtually every hospital in the country needed to open at least one (and sometimes many) covid ward, including for paediatric patients, whilst none have had to open an vaccine-damage wards.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tory MP for Bury South Christian Wakeford walked up to Owen Paterson yesterday and called him a cunt apparently
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1456573667731771399?s=20

    Is this the same Christian Wakeford who on top of his MPs role, stayed on for over 6 months as a councillor and on council committees earning an extra £22k per year and attending only one full council meeting and one council committee meeting over that time? Surely some mistake?
    You are allowed to be an MP and a Councillor. I don't see how either role gets appropriate attention if so, but you can.
    It may be allowed but it is poor form regardless and relevant to criticising other MPs for their behaviour around outside earnings.
    Ben Bradley is not only MP for Mansfield but also leader of Nottinghamshire county council
    So which job does he consider worthy of being part time? Or is it both? Very disrespectful to the electorate imo.
    MP is a part time job. It really should have a part time salary.

    How else do you think Ministers can do anything while still being a full time MP?
    If it were up to me I would halve the number of ministerial patronage roles, and shadows, available but in return allow ministers extra funding to hire a proxy to cover some home constituency tasks that they would otherwise do.
    I’d go the other way

    Have a directly elected head of government (either running with a slate or on their own). Make the legislature the legislature not the government
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,261

    MaxPB said:

    John Burn-Murdoch
    @jburnmurdoch
    NEW: Covid cases, hospitalisations & deaths on the rise again across Europe, with rates of all three metrics surpassing the UK in many countries

    Starting in the west: Belgium, Netherlands & Germany in particular experiencing sharp increases in not only cases but ICU & deaths too

    All of Europe is going to regret not running hot in the summer and autumn. They're all going to watch as the UK avoids another lockdown because of high natural immunity and very high vaccine immunity. The worst part is that they chose the Boris/Brexit derangement path of shitting on the UK strategy without actually thinking it through. NPIs to reduce transmission in a largely vaccinated population is and exercise in displacement. When we didn't have vaccines it made sense to delay infections, now that we do it doesn't and European countries have put off their exit waves to the worst possible time or they will need tough lockdowns to further displace them into the spring. Most will choose the latter path and not have a single moment of introspection at their idiotic denouncement of (now undeniably correct) the UK strategy.
    Do the new antivirals change this calculus? If they can get hold of enough of them it would do a lot to keep people out of hospital as they go through the exit wave. Though they might need to increase testing.
    I doubt they will arrive in time to stop a winter wave this year. Next year? Yes


    "Bourla told CNBC in April that Pfizer’s pill could be available to Americans by the end of this year."

    So in the EU a few months later?

    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/05/pfizer-says-its-covid-pill-with-hiv-drug-cuts-the-risk-of-hospitalization-or-death-by-89percent.html?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_content=Main&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1636109162

    Tho maybe they will be able to speed up and scale up the manufacturing? Charles and Max would know more about that
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,615
    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tory MP for Bury South Christian Wakeford walked up to Owen Paterson yesterday and called him a cunt apparently
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1456573667731771399?s=20

    Is this the same Christian Wakeford who on top of his MPs role, stayed on for over 6 months as a councillor and on council committees earning an extra £22k per year and attending only one full council meeting and one council committee meeting over that time? Surely some mistake?
    You are allowed to be an MP and a Councillor. I don't see how either role gets appropriate attention if so, but you can.
    It may be allowed but it is poor form regardless and relevant to criticising other MPs for their behaviour around outside earnings.
    Ben Bradley is not only MP for Mansfield but also leader of Nottinghamshire county council
    So which job does he consider worthy of being part time? Or is it both? Very disrespectful to the electorate imo.
    MP is a part time job. It really should have a part time salary.

    How else do you think Ministers can do anything while still being a full time MP?
    If it were up to me I would halve the number of ministerial patronage roles, and shadows, available but in return allow ministers extra funding to hire a proxy to cover some home constituency tasks that they would otherwise do.
    I’d go the other way

    Have a directly elected head of government (either running with a slate or on their own). Make the legislature the legislature not the government
    Isn't that basically the French system but with a merged President and PM?
  • Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tory MP for Bury South Christian Wakeford walked up to Owen Paterson yesterday and called him a cunt apparently
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1456573667731771399?s=20

    Is this the same Christian Wakeford who on top of his MPs role, stayed on for over 6 months as a councillor and on council committees earning an extra £22k per year and attending only one full council meeting and one council committee meeting over that time? Surely some mistake?
    You are allowed to be an MP and a Councillor. I don't see how either role gets appropriate attention if so, but you can.
    It may be allowed but it is poor form regardless and relevant to criticising other MPs for their behaviour around outside earnings.
    Ben Bradley is not only MP for Mansfield but also leader of Nottinghamshire county council
    So which job does he consider worthy of being part time? Or is it both? Very disrespectful to the electorate imo.
    MP is a part time job. It really should have a part time salary.

    How else do you think Ministers can do anything while still being a full time MP?
    If it were up to me I would halve the number of ministerial patronage roles, and shadows, available but in return allow ministers extra funding to hire a proxy to cover some home constituency tasks that they would otherwise do.
    I’d go the other way

    Have a directly elected head of government (either running with a slate or on their own). Make the legislature the legislature not the government
    Depending on details, not particularly averse to that either, my suggestion was more making it work better within the current framework. There are lots of different options.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,134
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tory MP for Bury South Christian Wakeford walked up to Owen Paterson yesterday and called him a cunt apparently
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1456573667731771399?s=20

    Is this the same Christian Wakeford who on top of his MPs role, stayed on for over 6 months as a councillor and on council committees earning an extra £22k per year and attending only one full council meeting and one council committee meeting over that time? Surely some mistake?
    You are allowed to be an MP and a Councillor. I don't see how either role gets appropriate attention if so, but you can.
    It may be allowed but it is poor form regardless and relevant to criticising other MPs for their behaviour around outside earnings.
    Ben Bradley is not only MP for Mansfield but also leader of Nottinghamshire county council
    That's .... interesting.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,261
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    I'm actually a tiny bit emosh about that Pfizer result. Probably over-reacting, but still

    If it is as good as it seems, fucking hell. GET IN

    It's great but it's also $700 per course so not particularly accessible to developing nations. Vaccines are still the way out of this, anti-virals can be useful for the unable to vaccinate cohort bit it's not a silver bullet like vaccines.
    I strongly suspect the price will come way down very quickly as these drugs are copied. Which they will be. As with the vax
    Anti-virals are usually fairly expensive because the manufacturing process is horribly ineffective and you need a shit load of expensive feed in materials to get just a few doses of pure enough end product. Additionally I don't see Pfizer or Merck waving their patents for these products for generics to be easily produced and distributed. Vaccines are the way out, anti-virals are a side show. Three doses of any of the three major vaccines is how we win. The government here is missing a trick by not opening up booster doses for all age groups.
    The Russians and Chinese will have their spies on this tomorrow., They will be copied

    That's "bad" but also good

    More maths

    The UK has 250,000 doses (or courses) of this apparent Pfizer game-changer


    That's £175m, at $700 a pop. Quite a lot of money. But set against the overwhelming cost of a crashed health system, or another lockdown, or 50,000 dead and 200,000 in hospital, it is fuck all


    So we will have to spend £175m every winter to avoid Covid horrors? It's peanuts. We've spent 300 BILLION so far

    Most countries will be able to afford this
    I agree with you that they will be a useful tool, I just don't think it's as big of a deal as you think is. As Charles has outlined the use of these needs a lot of stars to align. When they do it will prevent a lot of people from needing ICU treatment which is a huge benefit, but there will be a lot of cases where this doesn't happen. Really the silver bullet is preventing people from getting it in the first place which means giving everyone three vaccine doses and that should be the target, produce 20bn doses of vaccines in the next year.
    For me it's the combination that gets me excited. The vax is brilliant, but we al know there are fucking unvaxed idiots still able to crash the health system. I'm trying not to look at you, @DuraAce

    These pills sound like the cavalry racing in to take out the last of the virus in the antivaxxers. They won't go to hospital either, now

    And thus we achieve victory

    Unless, of course, the antivaxxers become the anti-antiviralists, as well, in which case we should oblige them to go and live in Madagascar
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING - No10 announce Boris Johnson will refuse to declare how much his freebie Spanish holiday at Zac Goldsmith's villa was worth. Story incoming
    https://twitter.com/danbloom1/status/1456595675177787398

    If Goldsmith doesn’t rent his house out (and I assume he doesn’t) how do you get a price for it? The PM stayed with a friend. Because the friend is a minister it was disclosed. The “value” doesn’t matter
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,001
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    I'm actually a tiny bit emosh about that Pfizer result. Probably over-reacting, but still

    If it is as good as it seems, fucking hell. GET IN

    It's great but it's also $700 per course so not particularly accessible to developing nations. Vaccines are still the way out of this, anti-virals can be useful for the unable to vaccinate cohort bit it's not a silver bullet like vaccines.
    I strongly suspect the price will come way down very quickly as these drugs are copied. Which they will be. As with the vax
    Anti-virals are usually fairly expensive because the manufacturing process is horribly ineffective and you need a shit load of expensive feed in materials to get just a few doses of pure enough end product. Additionally I don't see Pfizer or Merck waving their patents for these products for generics to be easily produced and distributed. Vaccines are the way out, anti-virals are a side show. Three doses of any of the three major vaccines is how we win. The government here is missing a trick by not opening up booster doses for all age groups.
    The Russians and Chinese will have their spies on this tomorrow., They will be copied

    That's "bad" but also good

    More maths

    The UK has 250,000 doses (or courses) of this apparent Pfizer game-changer


    That's £175m, at $700 a pop. Quite a lot of money. But set against the overwhelming cost of a crashed health system, or another lockdown, or 50,000 dead and 200,000 in hospital, it is fuck all


    So we will have to spend £175m every winter to avoid Covid horrors? It's peanuts. We've spent 300 BILLION so far

    Most countries will be able to afford this
    I agree with you that they will be a useful tool, I just don't think it's as big of a deal as you think is. As Charles has outlined the use of these needs a lot of stars to align. When they do it will prevent a lot of people from needing ICU treatment which is a huge benefit, but there will be a lot of cases where this doesn't happen. Really the silver bullet is preventing people from getting it in the first place which means giving everyone three vaccine doses and that should be the target, produce 20bn doses of vaccines in the next year.
    For me it's the combination that gets me excited. The vax is brilliant, but we al know there are fucking unvaxed idiots still able to crash the health system. I'm trying not to look at you, @DuraAce

    These pills sound like the cavalry racing in to take out the last of the virus in the antivaxxers. They won't go to hospital either, now

    And thus we achieve victory

    Unless, of course, the antivaxxers become the anti-antiviralists, as well, in which case we should oblige them to go and live in Madagascar
    We'll just tell them it's actually a combination of ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine under a different name, and they'll be queueing up to take it.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,123
    dixiedean said:

    MattW said:

    Selebian said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Farooq said:

    DougSeal said:

    Farooq said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Labour rules out backing an Independent cross-party candidate in North Shropshire a la Martin Bell in Tatton 1997 and will instead stand a Labour candidate

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59167967

    Proof if it were needed that Starmer likes to play by the rules that are stacked against him. He has no political nous, he has no killer instinct.

    Imagine, Mr Starmer, every night on the ItV, BBC and Sky News bulletins, corresponds would be following around an "anti- Conservative- sleaze" candidate. How much would that sort of advertising on billboards cost?

    BJO is right, Mr Starmer you are a fool.
    TBF finding a latter day Martin Bell the whole opposition could get behind is no easy task. Who would you suggest? I think Man U need Marcus Rashford more than Parliament does, at least for the rest of this season. Anyone else?
    Olivia Colman
    "Ms Colman, calling on behalf of the Labour, Lib Dem and Green parties. We've had a meeting. I know your Oscar winning career is currently approaching the stratosphere, and you could literally walk into any role you wanted, but I have an offer you simply CAN'T refuse..."
    How about David Mitchell then? I would drown a bagful of kittens to see him on either side of the dispatch box at PMQs.
    I have him in the Covid Dead Pool and still want to win.
    I have HM the Q so if she goes with not a trace of Covid that's it, I'm out. Metaphorical ticket screwed up and tossed onto bookie's floor, head shake, mumble mumble mumble, wonder if the offie's still open ... just like the old days.
    Thommo wins if LeadricT succumbs. That would be tragedy, comedy, pathos and bathos in one shocking event.
    Fair chance of a LeadricT persona getting banned and thus 'dying' (to be quickly reincarnated under a different but similar persona) within 28 days of a postive Covid test (or indeed 28 days of any day). Does that count?
    Are we looking for a new Clean Hands candidate?

    I quite like the sound of Martin Lewis. Ticks a lot of other boxes for an anti-Boris candidate. But he's s dotcom multi-mllionaire :smile: .

    Suspect HMQ is disbarred from standing?
    Has it been mentioned that Martin Lewis is an LSE Government graduate?
    And he isn't a proper dotcom millionaire as his website is useful for ordinary people and is a net positive for society.
    The most trusted person in the country per the survey quite recently.
  • Charles said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING - No10 announce Boris Johnson will refuse to declare how much his freebie Spanish holiday at Zac Goldsmith's villa was worth. Story incoming
    https://twitter.com/danbloom1/status/1456595675177787398

    If Goldsmith doesn’t rent his house out (and I assume he doesn’t) how do you get a price for it? The PM stayed with a friend. Because the friend is a minister it was disclosed. The “value” doesn’t matter
    Agreed. The value doesnt matter. Making a mate who was recently kicked out by the electorate a Minister and a Lord should have done.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    Good that someone is speaking up for family porn.


    Er what?!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,804

    DavidL said:


    Alex Wickham
    @alexwickham
    ·
    4h
    The government has made 36 U-turns in 23 months, POLITICO's
    @9andrewmcdonald
    has counted https://politi.co/3svJcDk

    I remember a lady who was not for turning. U turns in themselves are not a bad thing and show that the government is willing to correct mistakes. Deeply stupid behaviour, such as we have seen over the last 48 hours, is of course a different matter.
    I have two thoughts on this. One, I hate the carping about U-turns. If you make a mistake, then changing your mind should be encouraged. Its sensible.

    Two, the current muppets in charge are making too many mistakes in the first place, even if the u-turns correct them pretty swiftly. They need some better advice, or a change at the top, or both.
    Yep, that's pretty much it. They need someone to get a grip and stop the more obvious stupidity.

    Boris is pretty good at the big stuff and may well have something else to boast about from COP26 which he has clearly worked really hard on. His instincts for the lesser stuff, however, seem to have been damaged by how much trouble he has got himself both into and out of in his career.

    There is a brilliant line in Dune, about Paul's father, saying something like that he walked the cliff edge of danger for so long that he did not notice when he had fallen over it. This could happen to Boris too.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,189
    MaxPB said:

    John Burn-Murdoch
    @jburnmurdoch
    NEW: Covid cases, hospitalisations & deaths on the rise again across Europe, with rates of all three metrics surpassing the UK in many countries

    Starting in the west: Belgium, Netherlands & Germany in particular experiencing sharp increases in not only cases but ICU & deaths too

    All of Europe is going to regret not running hot in the summer and autumn. They're all going to watch as the UK avoids another lockdown because of high natural immunity and very high vaccine immunity. The worst part is that they chose the Boris/Brexit derangement path of shitting on the UK strategy without actually thinking it through. NPIs to reduce transmission in a largely vaccinated population is and exercise in displacement. When we didn't have vaccines it made sense to delay infections, now that we do it doesn't and European countries have put off their exit waves to the worst possible time or they will need tough lockdowns to further displace them into the spring. Most will choose the latter path and not have a single moment of introspection at their idiotic denouncement of (now undeniably correct) the UK strategy.
    There are lots of different countries in Europe, so I can only comment on Germany.
    Firstly, I am not particularly aware of the German government shitting on UK strategy in terms of running hot in the summer and autumn, no doubt you can find something. Also, in general, hardly anyone here has thought much about Brexit since about 2016. It's a bit of foreign news from years ago. Like the Zika virus. It's not determining the coronavirus regulations in Nordrhein-Westphalen.

    Secondly, running hot with many millions of vulnerable people completely unvaccinated is not an easy choice to make, maybe it would have been the right choice anyway, I don't know. Even now, 15% of Germans over 60 are still unvaccinated (and more Germans are over 60). This is the far bigger problem, in my opinion, and the bigger failure. What might make sense in one place, might not make as much sense elsewhere.

    Thirdly, I think there is little chance of an "exit wave" as such in the winter, as I don't think there is much chance of current restrictions being significantly lifted until the spring. I think a tough lockdown (as in schools closing etc) is also pretty unlikely unless hospitals get overwhelmed. Hospitals are strained right now, but I guess elective surgeries will be cancelled before anyone considers a tough lockdown.

    Fourthly, if new treatments become available in the coming months, then an exercise in displacement has some worth.

    Having said all that, the federal government doesn't seem to have much of a plan, and maybe encouraging a bigger wave over the summer would have been better.

    It seems too early to say, and it would have a) taken a brave politician to follow this course given the low vaccination rates and b) required agreement from the Bundesländer unless the federal govt+parliament would have been willing to pass national laws taking power from the Bundesländer and banning them from having mask mandates/having 3g rules etc, as the restrictions in place over the summer/autumn have generally come from the Bundesländer rather than the federal government.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,246

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    I'm actually a tiny bit emosh about that Pfizer result. Probably over-reacting, but still

    If it is as good as it seems, fucking hell. GET IN

    It's great but it's also $700 per course so not particularly accessible to developing nations. Vaccines are still the way out of this, anti-virals can be useful for the unable to vaccinate cohort bit it's not a silver bullet like vaccines.
    I strongly suspect the price will come way down very quickly as these drugs are copied. Which they will be. As with the vax
    Anti-virals are usually fairly expensive because the manufacturing process is horribly ineffective and you need a shit load of expensive feed in materials to get just a few doses of pure enough end product. Additionally I don't see Pfizer or Merck waving their patents for these products for generics to be easily produced and distributed. Vaccines are the way out, anti-virals are a side show. Three doses of any of the three major vaccines is how we win. The government here is missing a trick by not opening up booster doses for all age groups.
    The Russians and Chinese will have their spies on this tomorrow., They will be copied

    That's "bad" but also good

    More maths

    The UK has 250,000 doses (or courses) of this apparent Pfizer game-changer


    That's £175m, at $700 a pop. Quite a lot of money. But set against the overwhelming cost of a crashed health system, or another lockdown, or 50,000 dead and 200,000 in hospital, it is fuck all


    So we will have to spend £175m every winter to avoid Covid horrors? It's peanuts. We've spent 300 BILLION so far

    Most countries will be able to afford this
    I agree with you that they will be a useful tool, I just don't think it's as big of a deal as you think is. As Charles has outlined the use of these needs a lot of stars to align. When they do it will prevent a lot of people from needing ICU treatment which is a huge benefit, but there will be a lot of cases where this doesn't happen. Really the silver bullet is preventing people from getting it in the first place which means giving everyone three vaccine doses and that should be the target, produce 20bn doses of vaccines in the next year.
    For me it's the combination that gets me excited. The vax is brilliant, but we al know there are fucking unvaxed idiots still able to crash the health system. I'm trying not to look at you, @DuraAce

    These pills sound like the cavalry racing in to take out the last of the virus in the antivaxxers. They won't go to hospital either, now

    And thus we achieve victory

    Unless, of course, the antivaxxers become the anti-antiviralists, as well, in which case we should oblige them to go and live in Madagascar
    We'll just tell them it's actually a combination of ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine under a different name, and they'll be queueing up to take it.
    Also mention Jiff and Hot Broth on the ingredient list.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    This may have been posted before, but the latest ONS weekly COVID servery is out,

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/5november2021

    Amongst other things it confirms the overall redaction in rates across England, that we have seen in from the numbers testing positive. (also in Scotland, and wales, with a small rise in NI)

    And form the age breakdown, level or small falls in most age groups, but a big drop in the 'School years' 7 - 11 from 9.1% to 7.5%

    At this rate in 5 weeks time there will be nobody in that age group with the virus!!! (which is off course not accurate, the fall will attenuated down, but still....)
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,123

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    This could be the next big story.

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-news/tens-thousands-unvaccinated-care-workers-22073061

    Does anyone actually agree with this?

    Yes.

    Following a fall earlier this year my nan is against her and my grandad's wishes in a care home. Care workers have a choice whether to be vaccinated or not. She has no choice but to be there.

    Throughout the pandemic my nan wouldn't let anyone into her home apart from essential people whom she'd keep a distance from, until after the vaccines were rolled out. Now she's compelled to be in a home with people who are potentially unvaccinated putting her life at risk?

    If care workers don't give enough of a shit about the people they're caring for that they will get vaccinated to protect them, then I don't think they should be in the care sector.
    I realise that we are dealing with probabilities here but vaccinated people can still pass the virus on. I know you don't like unvaccinated people - are you letting this feeling overrule logic? Just sayin'.
    I think you have hit on something here. The situation has changed from when these rules were first thought of. At that time it was thought that vaccine would grant immunity. It doesn't. As an alternative it was thought that it significantly reduced the risk of the virus being passed on because you would have a lower viral load. I do not think, with Delta, that there is any compelling evidence of that. What the vaccines do is reduce the risk to the person vaccinated and all sensible people should be vaccinated as a result.

    But can we actually say that you being vaccinated makes someone else safer? I am not sure. Maybe. Those who are not vaccinated are, I think, still more likely to become infected and therefore more likely, statistically, to infect others. Whether that risk is both robust and material needs looked at again.
    There is evidence that:

    - The chance of a selected vaccinated person becoming infected (and thus able to carry the virus) is far lower than that of a selected unvaccinated person (if you don't catch it, you can't pass it on)
    - The viral load reaches equivalent levels early on, but drops away significantly faster (remains at infectious levels about 60% as long)
    - At an equivalent viral load, vaccinated people are noticeably less infectious than unvaccinated people.

    This doesn't mean that vaccinated people cannot pass on the virus, but it does mean that they are a lot less likely to do so. You're looking at an order of magnitude drop in likelihood to infect someone between unvaccinated and vaccinated at a period of endemic (or, indeed, epidemic) virus levels.
    That's also my understanding. Being vaccinated makes you far less likely to catch Delta, and far less likely to pass it on or be seriously ill if you do.

    That's fact, isn't it? Or is it still in play as a debating point?
    No I think that's pretty clearly the case. The issue is that too many lay people have imbibed the idea that vaccination means total immunity, which was never the case. Even with 95% protection against infection, 1 in 20 would still get it. Its like the dickhead in chief, Andrew Marr, thinking he was immune after getting two shots, then moaning about how ill he was (and yet back to work in a few days).

    The Israel data locks great for boosters, and having just had my Pfizer (after two goes at AZ) I think in 10 days or so I'm going to be pretty well protected.
    How were your Pfizer side-effects after 2 Astras? Were they significantly different?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Sir Keir Strainface
    Sir Keir Stroopwaffel
    Sir Keir Stramadol
    Sir Keir Straitlaced

    Which best captures the ineffable tediousness of SKS?

    Sir Keir Stumblingblock
    Sir Keir Stopcock
    Sir Keir Stubtoe
    Sir Keir Sturgid
    Sir Keir Stuffshirt
    Sir Keir Stiffhead
    Sir Keir Strap-On
    Sir Keir Stoppedclock

    Sir Keir Startlecat
    Sir Keir Stunnedmullet
    Sir Keir Stuck-in-the-Mud
    Sir Keir Slumper
    Sir Keir Stoplight

    Easy!!! His fans are so touchy that they don’t even like him being called Sir Keir
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Figure 5 on the ONS Infection report page is great, I love a good data animation. Shame it only goes back to September.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/5november2021
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    John Burn-Murdoch
    @jburnmurdoch
    NEW: Covid cases, hospitalisations & deaths on the rise again across Europe, with rates of all three metrics surpassing the UK in many countries

    Starting in the west: Belgium, Netherlands & Germany in particular experiencing sharp increases in not only cases but ICU & deaths too

    All of Europe is going to regret not running hot in the summer and autumn. They're all going to watch as the UK avoids another lockdown because of high natural immunity and very high vaccine immunity. The worst part is that they chose the Boris/Brexit derangement path of shitting on the UK strategy without actually thinking it through. NPIs to reduce transmission in a largely vaccinated population is and exercise in displacement. When we didn't have vaccines it made sense to delay infections, now that we do it doesn't and European countries have put off their exit waves to the worst possible time or they will need tough lockdowns to further displace them into the spring. Most will choose the latter path and not have a single moment of introspection at their idiotic denouncement of (now undeniably correct) the UK strategy.
    Do the new antivirals change this calculus? If they can get hold of enough of them it would do a lot to keep people out of hospital as they go through the exit wave. Though they might need to increase testing.
    I doubt they will arrive in time to stop a winter wave this year. Next year? Yes


    "Bourla told CNBC in April that Pfizer’s pill could be available to Americans by the end of this year."

    So in the EU a few months later?

    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/05/pfizer-says-its-covid-pill-with-hiv-drug-cuts-the-risk-of-hospitalization-or-death-by-89percent.html?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_content=Main&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1636109162

    Tho maybe they will be able to speed up and scale up the manufacturing? Charles and Max would know more about that
    It’s a little white pill 🤷‍♂️

    They won’t have got approval without the DMF locked, the CMC nailed down and the site inspected. They can ramp production fast and cheaply.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    there is a new thread but it does not seem to allow posting :(
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tory MP for Bury South Christian Wakeford walked up to Owen Paterson yesterday and called him a cunt apparently
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1456573667731771399?s=20

    Is this the same Christian Wakeford who on top of his MPs role, stayed on for over 6 months as a councillor and on council committees earning an extra £22k per year and attending only one full council meeting and one council committee meeting over that time? Surely some mistake?
    You are allowed to be an MP and a Councillor. I don't see how either role gets appropriate attention if so, but you can.
    It may be allowed but it is poor form regardless and relevant to criticising other MPs for their behaviour around outside earnings.
    Ben Bradley is not only MP for Mansfield but also leader of Nottinghamshire county council
    So which job does he consider worthy of being part time? Or is it both? Very disrespectful to the electorate imo.
    MP is a part time job. It really should have a part time salary.

    How else do you think Ministers can do anything while still being a full time MP?
    If it were up to me I would halve the number of ministerial patronage roles, and shadows, available but in return allow ministers extra funding to hire a proxy to cover some home constituency tasks that they would otherwise do.
    I’d go the other way

    Have a directly elected head of government (either running with a slate or on their own). Make the legislature the legislature not the government
    Isn't that basically the French system but with a merged President and PM?
    Closer to the US
This discussion has been closed.