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Tories drop to 36% with YouGov – politicalbetting.com

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  • kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    This could be the next big story.

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-news/tens-thousands-unvaccinated-care-workers-22073061

    Does anyone actually agree with this?

    Yes.

    Following a fall earlier this year my nan is against her and my grandad's wishes in a care home. Care workers have a choice whether to be vaccinated or not. She has no choice but to be there.

    Throughout the pandemic my nan wouldn't let anyone into her home apart from essential people whom she'd keep a distance from, until after the vaccines were rolled out. Now she's compelled to be in a home with people who are potentially unvaccinated putting her life at risk?

    If care workers don't give enough of a shit about the people they're caring for that they will get vaccinated to protect them, then I don't think they should be in the care sector.
    I realise that we are dealing with probabilities here but vaccinated people can still pass the virus on. I know you don't like unvaccinated people - are you letting this feeling overrule logic? Just sayin'.
    I think you have hit on something here. The situation has changed from when these rules were first thought of. At that time it was thought that vaccine would grant immunity. It doesn't. As an alternative it was thought that it significantly reduced the risk of the virus being passed on because you would have a lower viral load. I do not think, with Delta, that there is any compelling evidence of that. What the vaccines do is reduce the risk to the person vaccinated and all sensible people should be vaccinated as a result.

    But can we actually say that you being vaccinated makes someone else safer? I am not sure. Maybe. Those who are not vaccinated are, I think, still more likely to become infected and therefore more likely, statistically, to infect others. Whether that risk is both robust and material needs looked at again.
    There is evidence that:

    - The chance of a selected vaccinated person becoming infected (and thus able to carry the virus) is far lower than that of a selected unvaccinated person (if you don't catch it, you can't pass it on)
    - The viral load reaches equivalent levels early on, but drops away significantly faster (remains at infectious levels about 60% as long)
    - At an equivalent viral load, vaccinated people are noticeably less infectious than unvaccinated people.

    This doesn't mean that vaccinated people cannot pass on the virus, but it does mean that they are a lot less likely to do so. You're looking at an order of magnitude drop in likelihood to infect someone between unvaccinated and vaccinated at a period of endemic (or, indeed, epidemic) virus levels.
    That's also my understanding. Being vaccinated makes you far less likely to catch Delta, and far less likely to pass it on or be seriously ill if you do.

    That's fact, isn't it? Or is it still in play as a debating point?
    No it is absolutely not a fact. What it does do is stop vulnerable people (include obese in that), getting to the danger phase of the virus, by how many we will know much more at the end of the winter.
    You think it has no effect whatsoever on non-vulnerable people?

    Logically, if it helps people clear the virus faster by giving their immune system a head start, this would also benefit everyone else. I.e. the same effect that prevents a vulnerable person from getting seriously ill will also reduce the amount of time that a non-vulnerable person will be infectious. Despite the difficulty of controlling for very different levels of social restrictions, the data seems to confirm this.
    The best way of giving your immune system a head start is being fit and healthy, at a correct weight. I knocked this off in a day, this is the message the government has missed. They also inexplicably torpedoed the Valneva vaccine, which is much more like the traditional flu vaccine, which the MRNA stuff really isn't.

    The balance for a fit and healthy person is what is likely to cause most harm the virus or the vaccine. Plus if you have immunity, why take the injections?
  • kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    This could be the next big story.

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-news/tens-thousands-unvaccinated-care-workers-22073061

    Does anyone actually agree with this?

    Yes.

    Following a fall earlier this year my nan is against her and my grandad's wishes in a care home. Care workers have a choice whether to be vaccinated or not. She has no choice but to be there.

    Throughout the pandemic my nan wouldn't let anyone into her home apart from essential people whom she'd keep a distance from, until after the vaccines were rolled out. Now she's compelled to be in a home with people who are potentially unvaccinated putting her life at risk?

    If care workers don't give enough of a shit about the people they're caring for that they will get vaccinated to protect them, then I don't think they should be in the care sector.
    I realise that we are dealing with probabilities here but vaccinated people can still pass the virus on. I know you don't like unvaccinated people - are you letting this feeling overrule logic? Just sayin'.
    I think you have hit on something here. The situation has changed from when these rules were first thought of. At that time it was thought that vaccine would grant immunity. It doesn't. As an alternative it was thought that it significantly reduced the risk of the virus being passed on because you would have a lower viral load. I do not think, with Delta, that there is any compelling evidence of that. What the vaccines do is reduce the risk to the person vaccinated and all sensible people should be vaccinated as a result.

    But can we actually say that you being vaccinated makes someone else safer? I am not sure. Maybe. Those who are not vaccinated are, I think, still more likely to become infected and therefore more likely, statistically, to infect others. Whether that risk is both robust and material needs looked at again.
    There is evidence that:

    - The chance of a selected vaccinated person becoming infected (and thus able to carry the virus) is far lower than that of a selected unvaccinated person (if you don't catch it, you can't pass it on)
    - The viral load reaches equivalent levels early on, but drops away significantly faster (remains at infectious levels about 60% as long)
    - At an equivalent viral load, vaccinated people are noticeably less infectious than unvaccinated people.

    This doesn't mean that vaccinated people cannot pass on the virus, but it does mean that they are a lot less likely to do so. You're looking at an order of magnitude drop in likelihood to infect someone between unvaccinated and vaccinated at a period of endemic (or, indeed, epidemic) virus levels.
    That's also my understanding. Being vaccinated makes you far less likely to catch Delta, and far less likely to pass it on or be seriously ill if you do.

    That's fact, isn't it? Or is it still in play as a debating point?
    No it is absolutely not a fact. What it does do is stop vulnerable people (include obese in that), getting to the danger phase of the virus, by how many we will know much more at the end of the winter.
    You think it has no effect whatsoever on non-vulnerable people?

    Logically, if it helps people clear the virus faster by giving their immune system a head start, this would also benefit everyone else. I.e. the same effect that prevents a vulnerable person from getting seriously ill will also reduce the amount of time that a non-vulnerable person will be infectious. Despite the difficulty of controlling for very different levels of social restrictions, the data seems to confirm this.
    The best way of giving your immune system a head start is being fit and healthy, at a correct weight. I knocked this off in a day, this is the message the government has missed. They also inexplicably torpedoed the Valneva vaccine, which is much more like the traditional flu vaccine, which the MRNA stuff really isn't.

    The balance for a fit and healthy person is what is likely to cause most harm the virus or the vaccine. Plus if you have immunity, why take the injections?
    Yes and the balance has been checked and it is the virus that does more harm.

    The injections could save your life, or the life of others, that's why.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,403
    Farooq said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Now the full figures are out they show more 2019 Tory voters have moved to ReformUK, 9%, than the 6% who have moved to Starmer Labour
    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/kt0t33j4pz/TheTimes_VI_211104_W.pdf
    Does this indicate problems for the Govt in a forthcoming by-election?
    It does suggest Tice could make inroads though the Tories should hold on
    Is your confidence beginning to waver a little?
    No, my guess would be something like Tories 55%, Labour 28%, RefUK 10%, LDs 5%, so slightly smaller Tory majority but still a Tory hold
    You aren't really able to judge how the man and woman and non-binary in the street think. You still believe your party isn't institutionally corrupt.

    Just read the anger of the people barraging Tory MPs with emails. All the news coverage. All the comments. There is no Corbyn bogeyman to fear, no Brexit to defend. The government has a big majority and that won't change with these by-elections. Prime opportunities for people to deploy their displeasure with a cross in the wrong box or withheld completely.
    I said a 2 days ago that the impact of this would likely be back to hung parliament territory but the Tories still ahead.

    What does the new post Paterson Yougov show? Back to hung parliament territory but with the Tories still ahead! That certainly suggests Old Bexley and Sidcup will be a solid Tory hold even with some leakage to RefUK
    I very much doubt if this YouGov is post-Paterson. Too soon. After the weekend will be a better measure, when the Sunday papers have had their teeth in it.
    The Yougov was taken peak Paterson and concluded last night, now Paterson has resigned it will die down as an issue
    Possibly, possibly not.

    Sometime it's the issue that destroys you, other times it's the coverup.
    Should we start calling this Patergate?
    No. Its a stupid thing to do. The building was the Watergate building, so why just add gate to stuff? I know its been done, but its stupid.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,355

    tlg86 said:

    Farooq said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Labour rules out backing an Independent cross-party candidate in North Shropshire a la Martin Bell in Tatton 1997 and will instead stand a Labour candidate

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59167967

    Proof if it were needed that Starmer likes to play by the rules that are stacked against him. He has no political nous, he has no killer instinct.

    Imagine, Mr Starmer, every night on the ItV, BBC and Sky News bulletins, corresponds would be following around an "anti- Conservative- sleaze" candidate. How much would that sort of advertising on billboards cost?

    BJO is right, Mr Starmer you are a fool.
    TBF finding a latter day Martin Bell the whole opposition could get behind is no easy task. Who would you suggest? I think Man U need Marcus Rashford more than Parliament does, at least for the rest of this season. Anyone else?
    Olivia Colman
    Nigella Lawson for Tory traditionalists or for a bit of reform and banter we could have Gordon Ramsey.
    Nigella has cross-party appeal, but I don't think she'd want to get involved.

    Gareth Southgate.
    Tempting, but he's probably a bit busy now.

    Who suggested Martin Lewis The Moneysaving Expert? He'd be good if he wanted the role, but I suspect he's got more sense.
    If yesterday someone had suggested Michael Vaughan, I would have thought that a good suggestion.....we don't actually know much of what these celebs believe.
    Michael Vaughan is a complete idiot, that was known before yesterday (I have no idea if he's telling the truth regarding the YCCC stuff).

    Martin Lewis is very clearly not an idiot. What I'm much less clear about is how he thinks "the system" should be rather than how he thinks people should behave in "the system" as it is. It would be interesting to find out.
    Lewis would be useful in parliament for things like his forensic analysis of student loans and the damage pretending it is a loans system rather than a graduate tax (ok almost a graduate tax) causes to social mobility. I would not be surprised if all the parties had already sounded him out for interest as a future candidate before the last GE.
    George Lee provides a cautionary tale for people like Martin Lewis tempted to get involved in politics.

    At the time of the Great Financial Crash George Lee was RTÉ economics correspondent and became a trusted public figure on the crisis, what went wrong, and how it might not go wrong again.

    He was persuaded to stand for election to the Dail for the then opposition Fine Gael and was elected a TD when FG replaced FF in government, but he then found that the party leadership didn't want to hear from him, didn't have a ministerial or other role for him and expected him to serve his time as backbench drone.

    This wasn't what he expected, so he gave up politics and returned to RTÉ. Where he became science correspondent. In time for the Covid pandemic.

    Two lessons from this. First, people who are prominent in non-political fields may find that they lose influence if they enter politics and should be clear about what they're getting into. Second, we should pay close attention to George Lee's next role at RTÉ - if he becomes London correspondent we should be greatly alarmed, but if he becomes Brussels correspondent then perhaps the Brexiteers will be right, and the end of the EU is nigh.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Labour rules out backing an Independent cross-party candidate in North Shropshire a la Martin Bell in Tatton 1997 and will instead stand a Labour candidate

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59167967

    Proof if it were needed that Starmer likes to play by the rules that are stacked against him. He has no political nous, he has no killer instinct.

    Imagine, Mr Starmer, every night on the ItV, BBC and Sky News bulletins, corresponds would be following around an "anti- Conservative- sleaze" candidate. How much would that sort of advertising on billboards cost?

    BJO is right, Mr Starmer you are a fool.
    TBF finding a latter day Martin Bell the whole opposition could get behind is no easy task. Who would you suggest? I think Man U need Marcus Rashford more than Parliament does, at least for the rest of this season. Anyone else?
    Rory the Tory as proposed by Rochdale yesterday should fit the bill so long as he signs a pre-nup to say he won't cross the floor for at least a week.

    It is a no lose situation for Starmer, but then it seems he would rather lose anyway. I say this as someone sympathetic to Starmer. Although even accounting for his isolation he has been more than eclipsed by the Labour ladies this week.
    The Labour ladies have indeed been impressive – even Raygun, who I have not traditionally been a fan of. You could see her performing the Prezza role in a feminised front bench led by Reeves, backed up PB favourites Bridget and Rosena.
    You keep omitting the best of all, Nandy.

    Actually between that lot, Miliband, Ashworth, Streeting and Lammy they have a decent front bench. And a few reserves currently hiding out in select committees (Benn, Bryant etc).

    The meme that “Keir is Ok but what about the rest” needs to be quashed, as does constant references to Burgon who is best considered a fringe nutcase now.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,246

    Sek Kathiresan MD
    @skathire
    ·
    55m
    Wow, antiviral pill taken within 3d of symptoms COVID: 89% reduction in hospitalization or death

    Another
    @pfizer
    home run!

    Protease inhibitor originally developed for SARS-Cov1 in 2003 and now repurposed!

    If correct, that is the kind of result that stops the trial and turns it into an emergency approved treatment....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926

    Sek Kathiresan MD
    @skathire
    ·
    55m
    Wow, antiviral pill taken within 3d of symptoms COVID: 89% reduction in hospitalization or death

    Another
    @pfizer
    home run!

    Protease inhibitor originally developed for SARS-Cov1 in 2003 and now repurposed!

    That's excellent news.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,911
    edited November 2021

    Farooq said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Now the full figures are out they show more 2019 Tory voters have moved to ReformUK, 9%, than the 6% who have moved to Starmer Labour
    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/kt0t33j4pz/TheTimes_VI_211104_W.pdf
    Does this indicate problems for the Govt in a forthcoming by-election?
    It does suggest Tice could make inroads though the Tories should hold on
    Is your confidence beginning to waver a little?
    No, my guess would be something like Tories 55%, Labour 28%, RefUK 10%, LDs 5%, so slightly smaller Tory majority but still a Tory hold
    You aren't really able to judge how the man and woman and non-binary in the street think. You still believe your party isn't institutionally corrupt.

    Just read the anger of the people barraging Tory MPs with emails. All the news coverage. All the comments. There is no Corbyn bogeyman to fear, no Brexit to defend. The government has a big majority and that won't change with these by-elections. Prime opportunities for people to deploy their displeasure with a cross in the wrong box or withheld completely.
    I said a 2 days ago that the impact of this would likely be back to hung parliament territory but the Tories still ahead.

    What does the new post Paterson Yougov show? Back to hung parliament territory but with the Tories still ahead! That certainly suggests Old Bexley and Sidcup will be a solid Tory hold even with some leakage to RefUK
    I very much doubt if this YouGov is post-Paterson. Too soon. After the weekend will be a better measure, when the Sunday papers have had their teeth in it.
    The Yougov was taken peak Paterson and concluded last night, now Paterson has resigned it will die down as an issue
    Possibly, possibly not.

    Sometime it's the issue that destroys you, other times it's the coverup.
    Should we start calling this Patergate?
    No. Its a stupid thing to do. The building was the Watergate building, so why just add gate to stuff? I know its been done, but its stupid.
    It should have ended with GateGate
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,403
    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    This could be the next big story.

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-news/tens-thousands-unvaccinated-care-workers-22073061

    Does anyone actually agree with this?

    Yes.

    Following a fall earlier this year my nan is against her and my grandad's wishes in a care home. Care workers have a choice whether to be vaccinated or not. She has no choice but to be there.

    Throughout the pandemic my nan wouldn't let anyone into her home apart from essential people whom she'd keep a distance from, until after the vaccines were rolled out. Now she's compelled to be in a home with people who are potentially unvaccinated putting her life at risk?

    If care workers don't give enough of a shit about the people they're caring for that they will get vaccinated to protect them, then I don't think they should be in the care sector.
    I realise that we are dealing with probabilities here but vaccinated people can still pass the virus on. I know you don't like unvaccinated people - are you letting this feeling overrule logic? Just sayin'.
    I think you have hit on something here. The situation has changed from when these rules were first thought of. At that time it was thought that vaccine would grant immunity. It doesn't. As an alternative it was thought that it significantly reduced the risk of the virus being passed on because you would have a lower viral load. I do not think, with Delta, that there is any compelling evidence of that. What the vaccines do is reduce the risk to the person vaccinated and all sensible people should be vaccinated as a result.

    But can we actually say that you being vaccinated makes someone else safer? I am not sure. Maybe. Those who are not vaccinated are, I think, still more likely to become infected and therefore more likely, statistically, to infect others. Whether that risk is both robust and material needs looked at again.
    There is evidence that:

    - The chance of a selected vaccinated person becoming infected (and thus able to carry the virus) is far lower than that of a selected unvaccinated person (if you don't catch it, you can't pass it on)
    - The viral load reaches equivalent levels early on, but drops away significantly faster (remains at infectious levels about 60% as long)
    - At an equivalent viral load, vaccinated people are noticeably less infectious than unvaccinated people.

    This doesn't mean that vaccinated people cannot pass on the virus, but it does mean that they are a lot less likely to do so. You're looking at an order of magnitude drop in likelihood to infect someone between unvaccinated and vaccinated at a period of endemic (or, indeed, epidemic) virus levels.
    That's also my understanding. Being vaccinated makes you far less likely to catch Delta, and far less likely to pass it on or be seriously ill if you do.

    That's fact, isn't it? Or is it still in play as a debating point?
    No I think that's pretty clearly the case. The issue is that too many lay people have imbibed the idea that vaccination means total immunity, which was never the case. Even with 95% protection against infection, 1 in 20 would still get it. Its like the dickhead in chief, Andrew Marr, thinking he was immune after getting two shots, then moaning about how ill he was (and yet back to work in a few days).

    The Israel data locks great for boosters, and having just had my Pfizer (after two goes at AZ) I think in 10 days or so I'm going to be pretty well protected.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926

    Sek Kathiresan MD
    @skathire
    ·
    55m
    Wow, antiviral pill taken within 3d of symptoms COVID: 89% reduction in hospitalization or death

    Another
    @pfizer
    home run!

    Protease inhibitor originally developed for SARS-Cov1 in 2003 and now repurposed!

    If correct, that is the kind of result that stops the trial and turns it into an emergency approved treatment....
    It's already been recommended that they stop and seek approval immediately.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/05/health/pfizer-covid-pill.html
  • Sek Kathiresan MD
    @skathire
    ·
    55m
    Wow, antiviral pill taken within 3d of symptoms COVID: 89% reduction in hospitalization or death

    Another
    @pfizer
    home run!

    Protease inhibitor originally developed for SARS-Cov1 in 2003 and now repurposed!

    If correct, that is the kind of result that stops the trial and turns it into an emergency approved treatment....
    They have stopped the trial. Fantastic news!
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 788

    Moderna side-effect update:

    She's now feeling like shit.

    Hope she feels better soon! Moderna dose 2 side effects for me were horrendous for a few days.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,482
    tlg86 said:


    Michael Vaughan
    @MichaelVaughan
    Not many English people live in London.. I need to learn a new language..
    10:23 AM · Oct 15, 2010·Twitter for iPhone

    Another one who proves Cameron's dictum about Twitter.
    Yes, I find it hard to believe that Vaughan is an actual racist – but he just doesn't help himself at times with tweets etc.

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Labour rules out backing an Independent cross-party candidate in North Shropshire a la Martin Bell in Tatton 1997 and will instead stand a Labour candidate

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59167967

    Proof if it were needed that Starmer likes to play by the rules that are stacked against him. He has no political nous, he has no killer instinct.

    Imagine, Mr Starmer, every night on the ItV, BBC and Sky News bulletins, corresponds would be following around an "anti- Conservative- sleaze" candidate. How much would that sort of advertising on billboards cost?

    BJO is right, Mr Starmer you are a fool.
    TBF finding a latter day Martin Bell the whole opposition could get behind is no easy task. Who would you suggest? I think Man U need Marcus Rashford more than Parliament does, at least for the rest of this season. Anyone else?
    Rory the Tory as proposed by Rochdale yesterday should fit the bill so long as he signs a pre-nup to say he won't cross the floor for at least a week.

    It is a no lose situation for Starmer, but then it seems he would rather lose anyway. I say this as someone sympathetic to Starmer. Although even accounting for his isolation he has been more than eclipsed by the Labour ladies this week.
    The Labour ladies have indeed been impressive – even Raygun, who I have not traditionally been a fan of. You could see her performing the Prezza role in a feminised front bench led by Reeves, backed up PB favourites Bridget and Rosena.
    You keep omitting the best of all, Nandy.

    Actually between that lot, Miliband, Ashworth, Streeting and Lammy they have a decent front bench. And a few reserves currently hiding out in select committees (Benn, Bryant etc).

    The meme that “Keir is Ok but what about the rest” needs to be quashed, as does constant references to Burgon who is best considered a fringe nutcase now.
    I absolutely agree with you about Mili, Streets and the Lamster... but Ashworth? I can't bear him. Annoying!

    As for 'Bung On' Burgon – I think you are possibly confusing the last refuge of the PB Tories with the public at large. I suspect 99% of the men on the Clapham omnibus have never even heard of him!
  • IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    This could be the next big story.

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-news/tens-thousands-unvaccinated-care-workers-22073061

    Does anyone actually agree with this?

    Yes.

    Following a fall earlier this year my nan is against her and my grandad's wishes in a care home. Care workers have a choice whether to be vaccinated or not. She has no choice but to be there.

    Throughout the pandemic my nan wouldn't let anyone into her home apart from essential people whom she'd keep a distance from, until after the vaccines were rolled out. Now she's compelled to be in a home with people who are potentially unvaccinated putting her life at risk?

    If care workers don't give enough of a shit about the people they're caring for that they will get vaccinated to protect them, then I don't think they should be in the care sector.
    I realise that we are dealing with probabilities here but vaccinated people can still pass the virus on. I know you don't like unvaccinated people - are you letting this feeling overrule logic? Just sayin'.
    I think you have hit on something here. The situation has changed from when these rules were first thought of. At that time it was thought that vaccine would grant immunity. It doesn't. As an alternative it was thought that it significantly reduced the risk of the virus being passed on because you would have a lower viral load. I do not think, with Delta, that there is any compelling evidence of that. What the vaccines do is reduce the risk to the person vaccinated and all sensible people should be vaccinated as a result.

    But can we actually say that you being vaccinated makes someone else safer? I am not sure. Maybe. Those who are not vaccinated are, I think, still more likely to become infected and therefore more likely, statistically, to infect others. Whether that risk is both robust and material needs looked at again.
    There is evidence that:

    - The chance of a selected vaccinated person becoming infected (and thus able to carry the virus) is far lower than that of a selected unvaccinated person (if you don't catch it, you can't pass it on)
    - The viral load reaches equivalent levels early on, but drops away significantly faster (remains at infectious levels about 60% as long)
    - At an equivalent viral load, vaccinated people are noticeably less infectious than unvaccinated people.

    This doesn't mean that vaccinated people cannot pass on the virus, but it does mean that they are a lot less likely to do so. You're looking at an order of magnitude drop in likelihood to infect someone between unvaccinated and vaccinated at a period of endemic (or, indeed, epidemic) virus levels.
    That's also my understanding. Being vaccinated makes you far less likely to catch Delta, and far less likely to pass it on or be seriously ill if you do.

    That's fact, isn't it? Or is it still in play as a debating point?
    No it is absolutely not a fact. What it does do is stop vulnerable people (include obese in that), getting to the danger phase of the virus, by how many we will know much more at the end of the winter.
    Yes it is. Why not bugger off and troll somewhere else?

    Or repeat your claim that yougov lack credibility.

    https://patient.info/news-and-features/does-being-vaccinated-against-covid-19-stop-you-getting-infected
    ICL Lol. Ferguson is their top boy the biggest joker of the pandemic. 2015 yougov had Eddie as PM every day for 3 years proceeding the election. Then doubled down in 2016.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    kamski said:

    RobD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    This could be the next big story.

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-news/tens-thousands-unvaccinated-care-workers-22073061

    Does anyone actually agree with this?

    Yes.

    Following a fall earlier this year my nan is against her and my grandad's wishes in a care home. Care workers have a choice whether to be vaccinated or not. She has no choice but to be there.

    Throughout the pandemic my nan wouldn't let anyone into her home apart from essential people whom she'd keep a distance from, until after the vaccines were rolled out. Now she's compelled to be in a home with people who are potentially unvaccinated putting her life at risk?

    If care workers don't give enough of a shit about the people they're caring for that they will get vaccinated to protect them, then I don't think they should be in the care sector.
    I realise that we are dealing with probabilities here but vaccinated people can still pass the virus on. I know you don't like unvaccinated people - are you letting this feeling overrule logic? Just sayin'.
    I think you have hit on something here. The situation has changed from when these rules were first thought of. At that time it was thought that vaccine would grant immunity. It doesn't. As an alternative it was thought that it significantly reduced the risk of the virus being passed on because you would have a lower viral load. I do not think, with Delta, that there is any compelling evidence of that. What the vaccines do is reduce the risk to the person vaccinated and all sensible people should be vaccinated as a result.

    But can we actually say that you being vaccinated makes someone else safer? I am not sure. Maybe. Those who are not vaccinated are, I think, still more likely to become infected and therefore more likely, statistically, to infect others. Whether that risk is both robust and material needs looked at again.
    There is evidence that:

    - The chance of a selected vaccinated person becoming infected (and thus able to carry the virus) is far lower than that of a selected unvaccinated person (if you don't catch it, you can't pass it on)
    - The viral load reaches equivalent levels early on, but drops away significantly faster (remains at infectious levels about 60% as long)
    - At an equivalent viral load, vaccinated people are noticeably less infectious than unvaccinated people.

    This doesn't mean that vaccinated people cannot pass on the virus, but it does mean that they are a lot less likely to do so. You're looking at an order of magnitude drop in likelihood to infect someone between unvaccinated and vaccinated at a period of endemic (or, indeed, epidemic) virus levels.
    That's also my understanding. Being vaccinated makes you far less likely to catch Delta, and far less likely to pass it on or be seriously ill if you do.

    That's fact, isn't it? Or is it still in play as a debating point?
    No it is absolutely not a fact. What it does do is stop vulnerable people (include obese in that), getting to the danger phase of the virus, by how many we will know much more at the end of the winter.
    Yes it is. Why not bugger off and troll somewhere else?

    Or repeat your claim that yougov lack credibility.

    https://patient.info/news-and-features/does-being-vaccinated-against-covid-19-stop-you-getting-infected
    I'm confused. That article doesn't say anything about the NCIP virus.
    There's a virus going round in car parks?
    With a number of levels of severity
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,134

    Sek Kathiresan MD
    @skathire
    ·
    55m
    Wow, antiviral pill taken within 3d of symptoms COVID: 89% reduction in hospitalization or death

    Another
    @pfizer
    home run!

    Protease inhibitor originally developed for SARS-Cov1 in 2003 and now repurposed!

    If correct, that is the kind of result that stops the trial and turns it into an emergency approved treatment....
    So do we have an exclusive deal for the first 10 million of these? :smile:
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,482


    Reuters
    @Reuters
    · 46m
    BREAKING: Pfizer says its experimental antiviral pill cuts risk of severe COVID-19 by 89% https://reut.rs/3o0RGRF



    Sek Kathiresan MD
    @skathire
    ·
    55m
    Wow, antiviral pill taken within 3d of symptoms COVID: 89% reduction in hospitalization or death

    Another
    @pfizer
    home run!

    Protease inhibitor originally developed for SARS-Cov1 in 2003 and now repurposed!


    The two treatments for covid that have emerged in the last few days seem like the road to the endgame, globally, in medical terms. Yet I suspect it will be many years until we lose the ridiculous psychological stigma of covid – I mean you see it even on PB, with axiomatic obsession over 'cases' and the 'perception' of the virus, rather than the reality.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926
    MattW said:

    Sek Kathiresan MD
    @skathire
    ·
    55m
    Wow, antiviral pill taken within 3d of symptoms COVID: 89% reduction in hospitalization or death

    Another
    @pfizer
    home run!

    Protease inhibitor originally developed for SARS-Cov1 in 2003 and now repurposed!

    If correct, that is the kind of result that stops the trial and turns it into an emergency approved treatment....
    So do we have an exclusive deal for the first 10 million of these? :smile:
    Only quarter of a million. But that's enough to cover all hospitalisations for a good while, which would be overkill.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/britain-secures-covid-19-antivirals-merck-pfizer-2021-10-20/
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,403

    Moderna side-effect update:

    She's now feeling like shit.

    Pfizer 3 hours ago - feeling fine so far...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,125
    MattW said:

    kinabalu said:

    MattW said:

    DavidL said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    This could be the next big story.

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-news/tens-thousands-unvaccinated-care-workers-22073061

    Does anyone actually agree with this?

    Yes.

    Following a fall earlier this year my nan is against her and my grandad's wishes in a care home. Care workers have a choice whether to be vaccinated or not. She has no choice but to be there.

    Throughout the pandemic my nan wouldn't let anyone into her home apart from essential people whom she'd keep a distance from, until after the vaccines were rolled out. Now she's compelled to be in a home with people who are potentially unvaccinated putting her life at risk?

    If care workers don't give enough of a shit about the people they're caring for that they will get vaccinated to protect them, then I don't think they should be in the care sector.
    I realise that we are dealing with probabilities here but vaccinated people can still pass the virus on. I know you don't like unvaccinated people - are you letting this feeling overrule logic? Just sayin'.
    I think you have hit on something here. The situation has changed from when these rules were first thought of. At that time it was thought that vaccine would grant immunity. It doesn't. As an alternative it was thought that it significantly reduced the risk of the virus being passed on because you would have a lower viral load. I do not think, with Delta, that there is any compelling evidence of that. What the vaccines do is reduce the risk to the person vaccinated and all sensible people should be vaccinated as a result.

    But can we actually say that you being vaccinated makes someone else safer? I am not sure. Maybe. Those who are not vaccinated are, I think, still more likely to become infected and therefore more likely, statistically, to infect others. Whether that risk is both robust and material needs looked at again.
    There is evidence that:

    - The chance of a selected vaccinated person becoming infected (and thus able to carry the virus) is far lower than that of a selected unvaccinated person (if you don't catch it, you can't pass it on)
    - The viral load reaches equivalent levels early on, but drops away significantly faster (remains at infectious levels about 60% as long)
    - At an equivalent viral load, vaccinated people are noticeably less infectious than unvaccinated people.

    This doesn't mean that vaccinated people cannot pass on the virus, but it does mean that they are a lot less likely to do so. You're looking at an order of magnitude drop in likelihood to infect someone between unvaccinated and vaccinated at a period of endemic (or, indeed, epidemic) virus levels.
    Away with your Bad Facts*.

    *I was told at a company seminar on er... modern social mores that some things are Bad Facts and should not be mentioned, since they upset various groups.
    So give me a Bad Fact.
    Yes, come on, let's hear one.
    Depends if we are being serious or flippant. All of these I suspect betray opinions.

    My current favourite Bad Fact to drop into a quiet seminar where everybody shares the same prejudices, to create general and vigorous debate would perhaps be:

    "Most trans-men still have cervixes. Should they be allowed into woman only spaces?"


    or to point out the number of places where it was only the intervention of the British or other European Empires that stopped slavery.

    Zanzibar in 1896 was I believe one. As was the North African slave trade by Barbary Pirates stopped at around the same time.
    It's good to challenge orthodoxy with facts and evidence and reason. If an orthodoxy can't handle this it ought to be on its way out. However I have yet to come across a fact - in the true sense of the word - that cannot be uttered in this country for fear of serious repercussions to the utterer. I hear lots of hinting and moaning that such is the case but it never seems to go beyond that. But it's possible I'm being blase and this is a genuine problem, hence my request for examples. Yours here are great but they're not quite what I had in mind. Your cervix point is an elegantly subversive little send-up of the gender debate, and on the empire that's quite a common observation, how "we" prevented some evil as well as perpetrating it. The old "it's complicated and wasn't all bad" line of argument is what that is. I'd say that IS an orthodoxy actually.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,246

    Farooq said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Now the full figures are out they show more 2019 Tory voters have moved to ReformUK, 9%, than the 6% who have moved to Starmer Labour
    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/kt0t33j4pz/TheTimes_VI_211104_W.pdf
    Does this indicate problems for the Govt in a forthcoming by-election?
    It does suggest Tice could make inroads though the Tories should hold on
    Is your confidence beginning to waver a little?
    No, my guess would be something like Tories 55%, Labour 28%, RefUK 10%, LDs 5%, so slightly smaller Tory majority but still a Tory hold
    You aren't really able to judge how the man and woman and non-binary in the street think. You still believe your party isn't institutionally corrupt.

    Just read the anger of the people barraging Tory MPs with emails. All the news coverage. All the comments. There is no Corbyn bogeyman to fear, no Brexit to defend. The government has a big majority and that won't change with these by-elections. Prime opportunities for people to deploy their displeasure with a cross in the wrong box or withheld completely.
    I said a 2 days ago that the impact of this would likely be back to hung parliament territory but the Tories still ahead.

    What does the new post Paterson Yougov show? Back to hung parliament territory but with the Tories still ahead! That certainly suggests Old Bexley and Sidcup will be a solid Tory hold even with some leakage to RefUK
    I very much doubt if this YouGov is post-Paterson. Too soon. After the weekend will be a better measure, when the Sunday papers have had their teeth in it.
    The Yougov was taken peak Paterson and concluded last night, now Paterson has resigned it will die down as an issue
    Possibly, possibly not.

    Sometime it's the issue that destroys you, other times it's the coverup.
    Should we start calling this Patergate?
    No. Its a stupid thing to do. The building was the Watergate building, so why just add gate to stuff? I know its been done, but its stupid.
    It should have ended with GateGate
    Though Elon Musk has asked on Twitter, that if he is involved in a scandal, it must be referred to as "Elongate"
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,403


    Michael Vaughan
    @MichaelVaughan
    Not many English people live in London.. I need to learn a new language..
    10:23 AM · Oct 15, 2010·Twitter for iPhone

    Oh good, the outrage bus has moved onto Vaughn now, and started trawling 11 year old tweets...
  • Farooq said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Now the full figures are out they show more 2019 Tory voters have moved to ReformUK, 9%, than the 6% who have moved to Starmer Labour
    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/kt0t33j4pz/TheTimes_VI_211104_W.pdf
    Does this indicate problems for the Govt in a forthcoming by-election?
    It does suggest Tice could make inroads though the Tories should hold on
    Is your confidence beginning to waver a little?
    No, my guess would be something like Tories 55%, Labour 28%, RefUK 10%, LDs 5%, so slightly smaller Tory majority but still a Tory hold
    You aren't really able to judge how the man and woman and non-binary in the street think. You still believe your party isn't institutionally corrupt.

    Just read the anger of the people barraging Tory MPs with emails. All the news coverage. All the comments. There is no Corbyn bogeyman to fear, no Brexit to defend. The government has a big majority and that won't change with these by-elections. Prime opportunities for people to deploy their displeasure with a cross in the wrong box or withheld completely.
    I said a 2 days ago that the impact of this would likely be back to hung parliament territory but the Tories still ahead.

    What does the new post Paterson Yougov show? Back to hung parliament territory but with the Tories still ahead! That certainly suggests Old Bexley and Sidcup will be a solid Tory hold even with some leakage to RefUK
    I very much doubt if this YouGov is post-Paterson. Too soon. After the weekend will be a better measure, when the Sunday papers have had their teeth in it.
    The Yougov was taken peak Paterson and concluded last night, now Paterson has resigned it will die down as an issue
    Possibly, possibly not.

    Sometime it's the issue that destroys you, other times it's the coverup.
    Should we start calling this Patergate?
    No. Its a stupid thing to do. The building was the Watergate building, so why just add gate to stuff? I know its been done, but its stupid.
    It should have ended with GateGate
    Though Elon Musk has asked on Twitter, that if he is involved in a scandal, it must be referred to as "Elongate"
    If?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,482
    IshmaelZ said:

    kamski said:

    RobD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    This could be the next big story.

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-news/tens-thousands-unvaccinated-care-workers-22073061

    Does anyone actually agree with this?

    Yes.

    Following a fall earlier this year my nan is against her and my grandad's wishes in a care home. Care workers have a choice whether to be vaccinated or not. She has no choice but to be there.

    Throughout the pandemic my nan wouldn't let anyone into her home apart from essential people whom she'd keep a distance from, until after the vaccines were rolled out. Now she's compelled to be in a home with people who are potentially unvaccinated putting her life at risk?

    If care workers don't give enough of a shit about the people they're caring for that they will get vaccinated to protect them, then I don't think they should be in the care sector.
    I realise that we are dealing with probabilities here but vaccinated people can still pass the virus on. I know you don't like unvaccinated people - are you letting this feeling overrule logic? Just sayin'.
    I think you have hit on something here. The situation has changed from when these rules were first thought of. At that time it was thought that vaccine would grant immunity. It doesn't. As an alternative it was thought that it significantly reduced the risk of the virus being passed on because you would have a lower viral load. I do not think, with Delta, that there is any compelling evidence of that. What the vaccines do is reduce the risk to the person vaccinated and all sensible people should be vaccinated as a result.

    But can we actually say that you being vaccinated makes someone else safer? I am not sure. Maybe. Those who are not vaccinated are, I think, still more likely to become infected and therefore more likely, statistically, to infect others. Whether that risk is both robust and material needs looked at again.
    There is evidence that:

    - The chance of a selected vaccinated person becoming infected (and thus able to carry the virus) is far lower than that of a selected unvaccinated person (if you don't catch it, you can't pass it on)
    - The viral load reaches equivalent levels early on, but drops away significantly faster (remains at infectious levels about 60% as long)
    - At an equivalent viral load, vaccinated people are noticeably less infectious than unvaccinated people.

    This doesn't mean that vaccinated people cannot pass on the virus, but it does mean that they are a lot less likely to do so. You're looking at an order of magnitude drop in likelihood to infect someone between unvaccinated and vaccinated at a period of endemic (or, indeed, epidemic) virus levels.
    That's also my understanding. Being vaccinated makes you far less likely to catch Delta, and far less likely to pass it on or be seriously ill if you do.

    That's fact, isn't it? Or is it still in play as a debating point?
    No it is absolutely not a fact. What it does do is stop vulnerable people (include obese in that), getting to the danger phase of the virus, by how many we will know much more at the end of the winter.
    Yes it is. Why not bugger off and troll somewhere else?

    Or repeat your claim that yougov lack credibility.

    https://patient.info/news-and-features/does-being-vaccinated-against-covid-19-stop-you-getting-infected
    I'm confused. That article doesn't say anything about the NCIP virus.
    There's a virus going round in car parks?
    With a number of levels of severity
    It's not clear what's driving the outbreak
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    tlg86 said:


    Michael Vaughan
    @MichaelVaughan
    Not many English people live in London.. I need to learn a new language..
    10:23 AM · Oct 15, 2010·Twitter for iPhone

    Another one who proves Cameron's dictum about Twitter.
    Yes, I find it hard to believe that Vaughan is an actual racist – but he just doesn't help himself at times with tweets etc.

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Labour rules out backing an Independent cross-party candidate in North Shropshire a la Martin Bell in Tatton 1997 and will instead stand a Labour candidate

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59167967

    Proof if it were needed that Starmer likes to play by the rules that are stacked against him. He has no political nous, he has no killer instinct.

    Imagine, Mr Starmer, every night on the ItV, BBC and Sky News bulletins, corresponds would be following around an "anti- Conservative- sleaze" candidate. How much would that sort of advertising on billboards cost?

    BJO is right, Mr Starmer you are a fool.
    TBF finding a latter day Martin Bell the whole opposition could get behind is no easy task. Who would you suggest? I think Man U need Marcus Rashford more than Parliament does, at least for the rest of this season. Anyone else?
    Rory the Tory as proposed by Rochdale yesterday should fit the bill so long as he signs a pre-nup to say he won't cross the floor for at least a week.

    It is a no lose situation for Starmer, but then it seems he would rather lose anyway. I say this as someone sympathetic to Starmer. Although even accounting for his isolation he has been more than eclipsed by the Labour ladies this week.
    The Labour ladies have indeed been impressive – even Raygun, who I have not traditionally been a fan of. You could see her performing the Prezza role in a feminised front bench led by Reeves, backed up PB favourites Bridget and Rosena.
    You keep omitting the best of all, Nandy.

    Actually between that lot, Miliband, Ashworth, Streeting and Lammy they have a decent front bench. And a few reserves currently hiding out in select committees (Benn, Bryant etc).

    The meme that “Keir is Ok but what about the rest” needs to be quashed, as does constant references to Burgon who is best considered a fringe nutcase now.
    I absolutely agree with you about Mili, Streets and the Lamster... but Ashworth? I can't bear him. Annoying!

    As for 'Bung On' Burgon – I think you are possibly confusing the last refuge of the PB Tories with the public at large. I suspect 99% of the men on the Clapham omnibus have never even heard of him!
    I presume the man on the omnibus has barely even heard of Sir Keir. I am absolutely talking about the PB blockheads who say, “I’d certainly vote Labour but Keir needs to clear out all the Burgons”.

    Actually, Keir simply needs to pull his own ripcord. His Corbyn clear-up mission is nearly complete and he needs to make way for a winner.
  • HYUFD said:

    Tory MP for Bury South Christian Wakeford walked up to Owen Paterson yesterday and called him a cunt apparently
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1456573667731771399?s=20

    Is this the same Christian Wakeford who on top of his MPs role, stayed on for over 6 months as a councillor and on council committees earning an extra £22k per year and attending only one full council meeting and one council committee meeting over that time? Surely some mistake?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,403

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    This could be the next big story.

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-news/tens-thousands-unvaccinated-care-workers-22073061

    Does anyone actually agree with this?

    Yes.

    Following a fall earlier this year my nan is against her and my grandad's wishes in a care home. Care workers have a choice whether to be vaccinated or not. She has no choice but to be there.

    Throughout the pandemic my nan wouldn't let anyone into her home apart from essential people whom she'd keep a distance from, until after the vaccines were rolled out. Now she's compelled to be in a home with people who are potentially unvaccinated putting her life at risk?

    If care workers don't give enough of a shit about the people they're caring for that they will get vaccinated to protect them, then I don't think they should be in the care sector.
    I realise that we are dealing with probabilities here but vaccinated people can still pass the virus on. I know you don't like unvaccinated people - are you letting this feeling overrule logic? Just sayin'.
    I think you have hit on something here. The situation has changed from when these rules were first thought of. At that time it was thought that vaccine would grant immunity. It doesn't. As an alternative it was thought that it significantly reduced the risk of the virus being passed on because you would have a lower viral load. I do not think, with Delta, that there is any compelling evidence of that. What the vaccines do is reduce the risk to the person vaccinated and all sensible people should be vaccinated as a result.

    But can we actually say that you being vaccinated makes someone else safer? I am not sure. Maybe. Those who are not vaccinated are, I think, still more likely to become infected and therefore more likely, statistically, to infect others. Whether that risk is both robust and material needs looked at again.
    There is evidence that:

    - The chance of a selected vaccinated person becoming infected (and thus able to carry the virus) is far lower than that of a selected unvaccinated person (if you don't catch it, you can't pass it on)
    - The viral load reaches equivalent levels early on, but drops away significantly faster (remains at infectious levels about 60% as long)
    - At an equivalent viral load, vaccinated people are noticeably less infectious than unvaccinated people.

    This doesn't mean that vaccinated people cannot pass on the virus, but it does mean that they are a lot less likely to do so. You're looking at an order of magnitude drop in likelihood to infect someone between unvaccinated and vaccinated at a period of endemic (or, indeed, epidemic) virus levels.
    That's also my understanding. Being vaccinated makes you far less likely to catch Delta, and far less likely to pass it on or be seriously ill if you do.

    That's fact, isn't it? Or is it still in play as a debating point?
    No it is absolutely not a fact. What it does do is stop vulnerable people (include obese in that), getting to the danger phase of the virus, by how many we will know much more at the end of the winter.
    You think it has no effect whatsoever on non-vulnerable people?

    Logically, if it helps people clear the virus faster by giving their immune system a head start, this would also benefit everyone else. I.e. the same effect that prevents a vulnerable person from getting seriously ill will also reduce the amount of time that a non-vulnerable person will be infectious. Despite the difficulty of controlling for very different levels of social restrictions, the data seems to confirm this.
    The best way of giving your immune system a head start is being fit and healthy, at a correct weight. I knocked this off in a day, this is the message the government has missed. They also inexplicably torpedoed the Valneva vaccine, which is much more like the traditional flu vaccine, which the MRNA stuff really isn't.

    The balance for a fit and healthy person is what is likely to cause most harm the virus or the vaccine. Plus if you have immunity, why take the injections?
    I assume you have missed the stories of incredibly fit people in the their 20s and 30s who have died from this disease? I don't know what your game is here, but I suspect you are trolling. If not, read some actual science not derived from social media.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    kamski said:

    RobD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    This could be the next big story.

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-news/tens-thousands-unvaccinated-care-workers-22073061

    Does anyone actually agree with this?

    Yes.

    Following a fall earlier this year my nan is against her and my grandad's wishes in a care home. Care workers have a choice whether to be vaccinated or not. She has no choice but to be there.

    Throughout the pandemic my nan wouldn't let anyone into her home apart from essential people whom she'd keep a distance from, until after the vaccines were rolled out. Now she's compelled to be in a home with people who are potentially unvaccinated putting her life at risk?

    If care workers don't give enough of a shit about the people they're caring for that they will get vaccinated to protect them, then I don't think they should be in the care sector.
    I realise that we are dealing with probabilities here but vaccinated people can still pass the virus on. I know you don't like unvaccinated people - are you letting this feeling overrule logic? Just sayin'.
    I think you have hit on something here. The situation has changed from when these rules were first thought of. At that time it was thought that vaccine would grant immunity. It doesn't. As an alternative it was thought that it significantly reduced the risk of the virus being passed on because you would have a lower viral load. I do not think, with Delta, that there is any compelling evidence of that. What the vaccines do is reduce the risk to the person vaccinated and all sensible people should be vaccinated as a result.

    But can we actually say that you being vaccinated makes someone else safer? I am not sure. Maybe. Those who are not vaccinated are, I think, still more likely to become infected and therefore more likely, statistically, to infect others. Whether that risk is both robust and material needs looked at again.
    There is evidence that:

    - The chance of a selected vaccinated person becoming infected (and thus able to carry the virus) is far lower than that of a selected unvaccinated person (if you don't catch it, you can't pass it on)
    - The viral load reaches equivalent levels early on, but drops away significantly faster (remains at infectious levels about 60% as long)
    - At an equivalent viral load, vaccinated people are noticeably less infectious than unvaccinated people.

    This doesn't mean that vaccinated people cannot pass on the virus, but it does mean that they are a lot less likely to do so. You're looking at an order of magnitude drop in likelihood to infect someone between unvaccinated and vaccinated at a period of endemic (or, indeed, epidemic) virus levels.
    That's also my understanding. Being vaccinated makes you far less likely to catch Delta, and far less likely to pass it on or be seriously ill if you do.

    That's fact, isn't it? Or is it still in play as a debating point?
    No it is absolutely not a fact. What it does do is stop vulnerable people (include obese in that), getting to the danger phase of the virus, by how many we will know much more at the end of the winter.
    Yes it is. Why not bugger off and troll somewhere else?

    Or repeat your claim that yougov lack credibility.

    https://patient.info/news-and-features/does-being-vaccinated-against-covid-19-stop-you-getting-infected
    I'm confused. That article doesn't say anything about the NCIP virus.
    There's a virus going round in car parks?
    With a number of levels of severity
    It's not clear what's driving the outbreak
    Its a multi-storied issue.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,403
    edited November 2021


    Reuters
    @Reuters
    · 46m
    BREAKING: Pfizer says its experimental antiviral pill cuts risk of severe COVID-19 by 89% https://reut.rs/3o0RGRF



    Sek Kathiresan MD
    @skathire
    ·
    55m
    Wow, antiviral pill taken within 3d of symptoms COVID: 89% reduction in hospitalization or death

    Another
    @pfizer
    home run!

    Protease inhibitor originally developed for SARS-Cov1 in 2003 and now repurposed!

    Another game changer. Yay science.

    Edit - I'm not being sarcastic, which it kind of looked like after I posted it!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,125

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    This could be the next big story.

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-news/tens-thousands-unvaccinated-care-workers-22073061

    Does anyone actually agree with this?

    Yes.

    Following a fall earlier this year my nan is against her and my grandad's wishes in a care home. Care workers have a choice whether to be vaccinated or not. She has no choice but to be there.

    Throughout the pandemic my nan wouldn't let anyone into her home apart from essential people whom she'd keep a distance from, until after the vaccines were rolled out. Now she's compelled to be in a home with people who are potentially unvaccinated putting her life at risk?

    If care workers don't give enough of a shit about the people they're caring for that they will get vaccinated to protect them, then I don't think they should be in the care sector.
    I realise that we are dealing with probabilities here but vaccinated people can still pass the virus on. I know you don't like unvaccinated people - are you letting this feeling overrule logic? Just sayin'.
    I think you have hit on something here. The situation has changed from when these rules were first thought of. At that time it was thought that vaccine would grant immunity. It doesn't. As an alternative it was thought that it significantly reduced the risk of the virus being passed on because you would have a lower viral load. I do not think, with Delta, that there is any compelling evidence of that. What the vaccines do is reduce the risk to the person vaccinated and all sensible people should be vaccinated as a result.

    But can we actually say that you being vaccinated makes someone else safer? I am not sure. Maybe. Those who are not vaccinated are, I think, still more likely to become infected and therefore more likely, statistically, to infect others. Whether that risk is both robust and material needs looked at again.
    There is evidence that:

    - The chance of a selected vaccinated person becoming infected (and thus able to carry the virus) is far lower than that of a selected unvaccinated person (if you don't catch it, you can't pass it on)
    - The viral load reaches equivalent levels early on, but drops away significantly faster (remains at infectious levels about 60% as long)
    - At an equivalent viral load, vaccinated people are noticeably less infectious than unvaccinated people.

    This doesn't mean that vaccinated people cannot pass on the virus, but it does mean that they are a lot less likely to do so. You're looking at an order of magnitude drop in likelihood to infect someone between unvaccinated and vaccinated at a period of endemic (or, indeed, epidemic) virus levels.
    That's also my understanding. Being vaccinated makes you far less likely to catch Delta, and far less likely to pass it on or be seriously ill if you do.

    That's fact, isn't it? Or is it still in play as a debating point?
    No it is absolutely not a fact. What it does do is stop vulnerable people (include obese in that), getting to the danger phase of the virus, by how many we will know much more at the end of the winter.
    Hang on, aren't you the one making out we have massive fraud in our postal voting system? Lots of little old ladies being told to vote Labour by hulking brutes?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    This could be the next big story.

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-news/tens-thousands-unvaccinated-care-workers-22073061

    Does anyone actually agree with this?

    Yes.

    Following a fall earlier this year my nan is against her and my grandad's wishes in a care home. Care workers have a choice whether to be vaccinated or not. She has no choice but to be there.

    Throughout the pandemic my nan wouldn't let anyone into her home apart from essential people whom she'd keep a distance from, until after the vaccines were rolled out. Now she's compelled to be in a home with people who are potentially unvaccinated putting her life at risk?

    If care workers don't give enough of a shit about the people they're caring for that they will get vaccinated to protect them, then I don't think they should be in the care sector.
    I realise that we are dealing with probabilities here but vaccinated people can still pass the virus on. I know you don't like unvaccinated people - are you letting this feeling overrule logic? Just sayin'.
    I think you have hit on something here. The situation has changed from when these rules were first thought of. At that time it was thought that vaccine would grant immunity. It doesn't. As an alternative it was thought that it significantly reduced the risk of the virus being passed on because you would have a lower viral load. I do not think, with Delta, that there is any compelling evidence of that. What the vaccines do is reduce the risk to the person vaccinated and all sensible people should be vaccinated as a result.

    But can we actually say that you being vaccinated makes someone else safer? I am not sure. Maybe. Those who are not vaccinated are, I think, still more likely to become infected and therefore more likely, statistically, to infect others. Whether that risk is both robust and material needs looked at again.
    There is evidence that:

    - The chance of a selected vaccinated person becoming infected (and thus able to carry the virus) is far lower than that of a selected unvaccinated person (if you don't catch it, you can't pass it on)
    - The viral load reaches equivalent levels early on, but drops away significantly faster (remains at infectious levels about 60% as long)
    - At an equivalent viral load, vaccinated people are noticeably less infectious than unvaccinated people.

    This doesn't mean that vaccinated people cannot pass on the virus, but it does mean that they are a lot less likely to do so. You're looking at an order of magnitude drop in likelihood to infect someone between unvaccinated and vaccinated at a period of endemic (or, indeed, epidemic) virus levels.
    That's also my understanding. Being vaccinated makes you far less likely to catch Delta, and far less likely to pass it on or be seriously ill if you do.

    That's fact, isn't it? Or is it still in play as a debating point?
    No it is absolutely not a fact. What it does do is stop vulnerable people (include obese in that), getting to the danger phase of the virus, by how many we will know much more at the end of the winter.
    Yes it is. Why not bugger off and troll somewhere else?

    Or repeat your claim that yougov lack credibility.

    https://patient.info/news-and-features/does-being-vaccinated-against-covid-19-stop-you-getting-infected
    ICL Lol. Ferguson is their top boy the biggest joker of the pandemic. 2015 yougov had Eddie as PM every day for 3 years proceeding the election. Then doubled down in 2016.
    Please now claim that yougov are corrupt.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    edited November 2021


    Michael Vaughan
    @MichaelVaughan
    Not many English people live in London.. I need to learn a new language..
    10:23 AM · Oct 15, 2010·Twitter for iPhone

    Oh good, the outrage bus has moved onto Vaughn now, and started trawling 11 year old tweets...
    Vaughan's getting a taste of his own medicine (and Vaughan wasn't 18 when he wrote that Tweet)...

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/sportsnews/article-9647413/Michael-Vaughan-STAGGERED-ECB-didnt-diligence-emergence-Ollie-Robinsons-tweets.html

    'A few weeks ago, surely England would have known that Ollie Robinson was in their thoughts. You have to go through everything. These days on Twitter, social media it's all there for everyone to see.

    'You can't suddenly - why didn't they delete it - that's irrelevant. He tweeted what he had tweeted in 2012.

    'Yes, he was 18 but I do find that staggering that the ECB with everything, the resources that they have in their operation, they don't go through everything about every player that you pick just to make sure you have got everything covered.'
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    This could be the next big story.

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-news/tens-thousands-unvaccinated-care-workers-22073061

    Does anyone actually agree with this?

    Yes.

    Following a fall earlier this year my nan is against her and my grandad's wishes in a care home. Care workers have a choice whether to be vaccinated or not. She has no choice but to be there.

    Throughout the pandemic my nan wouldn't let anyone into her home apart from essential people whom she'd keep a distance from, until after the vaccines were rolled out. Now she's compelled to be in a home with people who are potentially unvaccinated putting her life at risk?

    If care workers don't give enough of a shit about the people they're caring for that they will get vaccinated to protect them, then I don't think they should be in the care sector.
    I realise that we are dealing with probabilities here but vaccinated people can still pass the virus on. I know you don't like unvaccinated people - are you letting this feeling overrule logic? Just sayin'.
    I think you have hit on something here. The situation has changed from when these rules were first thought of. At that time it was thought that vaccine would grant immunity. It doesn't. As an alternative it was thought that it significantly reduced the risk of the virus being passed on because you would have a lower viral load. I do not think, with Delta, that there is any compelling evidence of that. What the vaccines do is reduce the risk to the person vaccinated and all sensible people should be vaccinated as a result.

    But can we actually say that you being vaccinated makes someone else safer? I am not sure. Maybe. Those who are not vaccinated are, I think, still more likely to become infected and therefore more likely, statistically, to infect others. Whether that risk is both robust and material needs looked at again.
    There is evidence that:

    - The chance of a selected vaccinated person becoming infected (and thus able to carry the virus) is far lower than that of a selected unvaccinated person (if you don't catch it, you can't pass it on)
    - The viral load reaches equivalent levels early on, but drops away significantly faster (remains at infectious levels about 60% as long)
    - At an equivalent viral load, vaccinated people are noticeably less infectious than unvaccinated people.

    This doesn't mean that vaccinated people cannot pass on the virus, but it does mean that they are a lot less likely to do so. You're looking at an order of magnitude drop in likelihood to infect someone between unvaccinated and vaccinated at a period of endemic (or, indeed, epidemic) virus levels.
    There is also real world evidence this is not the case. The inventor of the MRNA technology is certainly clear on this. The evidence that a fit and healthy person benefits on balance from taking these vaccines is very thin and I am very well read on this subject. These are not your normal flu type vaccines and the amount of intelligent people who still do not know this staggers me.
    Well read from conspiracy websites it seems.
    Far from it, you can provide a more original reply surely. Where is the data that fit and healthy people are a more than tiny risk from the NCIP Virus? The NHS data doesn't say so and doesn't include the obese in the pre existing condition sections.
    What is the NCIP virus?
    The original name of the Virus before it was changed to something that would be more catchy. NCIP actually describes the reality of the virus very well.
    Sorry, what? It's called "coronavirus disease 2019", because it is a coronavirus.
    Novel Coronavirus infected pneumonia was the original name. I don't use the other one. NCIP Virus, not as catchy that was why it was changed, along with another reason.
    You must get some pretty confused looks when talking about that to other people, I've not heard it referred to as that once. Do you honestly believe the name was changed because it was more "catchy"? In any case, calling it pneumonia is incorrect, otherwise the only symptom of Covid would be the swelling of ones lungs. Pneumonia can be a symptom of covid, but not the only one.
    I would just call it the CCP Virus to be honest but trying to take the politics away here. It is just a theory why they changed the name, yes and you are right the virus can cause the immune system to turn against the body and multi organ failure, which is the phase the vaccine is set up to protect against.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,403

    IshmaelZ said:

    kamski said:

    RobD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    This could be the next big story.

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-news/tens-thousands-unvaccinated-care-workers-22073061

    Does anyone actually agree with this?

    Yes.

    Following a fall earlier this year my nan is against her and my grandad's wishes in a care home. Care workers have a choice whether to be vaccinated or not. She has no choice but to be there.

    Throughout the pandemic my nan wouldn't let anyone into her home apart from essential people whom she'd keep a distance from, until after the vaccines were rolled out. Now she's compelled to be in a home with people who are potentially unvaccinated putting her life at risk?

    If care workers don't give enough of a shit about the people they're caring for that they will get vaccinated to protect them, then I don't think they should be in the care sector.
    I realise that we are dealing with probabilities here but vaccinated people can still pass the virus on. I know you don't like unvaccinated people - are you letting this feeling overrule logic? Just sayin'.
    I think you have hit on something here. The situation has changed from when these rules were first thought of. At that time it was thought that vaccine would grant immunity. It doesn't. As an alternative it was thought that it significantly reduced the risk of the virus being passed on because you would have a lower viral load. I do not think, with Delta, that there is any compelling evidence of that. What the vaccines do is reduce the risk to the person vaccinated and all sensible people should be vaccinated as a result.

    But can we actually say that you being vaccinated makes someone else safer? I am not sure. Maybe. Those who are not vaccinated are, I think, still more likely to become infected and therefore more likely, statistically, to infect others. Whether that risk is both robust and material needs looked at again.
    There is evidence that:

    - The chance of a selected vaccinated person becoming infected (and thus able to carry the virus) is far lower than that of a selected unvaccinated person (if you don't catch it, you can't pass it on)
    - The viral load reaches equivalent levels early on, but drops away significantly faster (remains at infectious levels about 60% as long)
    - At an equivalent viral load, vaccinated people are noticeably less infectious than unvaccinated people.

    This doesn't mean that vaccinated people cannot pass on the virus, but it does mean that they are a lot less likely to do so. You're looking at an order of magnitude drop in likelihood to infect someone between unvaccinated and vaccinated at a period of endemic (or, indeed, epidemic) virus levels.
    That's also my understanding. Being vaccinated makes you far less likely to catch Delta, and far less likely to pass it on or be seriously ill if you do.

    That's fact, isn't it? Or is it still in play as a debating point?
    No it is absolutely not a fact. What it does do is stop vulnerable people (include obese in that), getting to the danger phase of the virus, by how many we will know much more at the end of the winter.
    Yes it is. Why not bugger off and troll somewhere else?

    Or repeat your claim that yougov lack credibility.

    https://patient.info/news-and-features/does-being-vaccinated-against-covid-19-stop-you-getting-infected
    I'm confused. That article doesn't say anything about the NCIP virus.
    There's a virus going round in car parks?
    With a number of levels of severity
    It's not clear what's driving the outbreak
    With many barriers to exiting the situation...
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,134
    edited November 2021
    RobD said:

    Sek Kathiresan MD
    @skathire
    ·
    55m
    Wow, antiviral pill taken within 3d of symptoms COVID: 89% reduction in hospitalization or death

    Another
    @pfizer
    home run!

    Protease inhibitor originally developed for SARS-Cov1 in 2003 and now repurposed!

    If correct, that is the kind of result that stops the trial and turns it into an emergency approved treatment....
    It's already been recommended that they stop and seek approval immediately.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/05/health/pfizer-covid-pill.html
    Checked.

    US Gov has a contract for 1.7m (5 day I think) treatment courses. At $700 each.

    UK has half a million courses. Price not revealed.
    https://inews.co.uk/news/sajid-javid-press-conference-covid-drugs-molnupiravir-available-nhs-avoid-plan-b-restrictions-winter-1259879

    Not sure what EU are doing.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670


    Michael Vaughan
    @MichaelVaughan
    Not many English people live in London.. I need to learn a new language..
    10:23 AM · Oct 15, 2010·Twitter for iPhone

    Oh good, the outrage bus has moved onto Vaughn now, and started trawling 11 year old tweets...
    This... hasn't just been selected randomly.

    He's been accused of racism and he's gone with the "I don't have a racist bone in my body" defence.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Sir Keir Strainface
    Sir Keir Stroopwaffel
    Sir Keir Stramadol
    Sir Keir Straitlaced

    Which best captures the ineffable tediousness of SKS?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,617

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    This could be the next big story.

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-news/tens-thousands-unvaccinated-care-workers-22073061

    Does anyone actually agree with this?

    Yes.

    Following a fall earlier this year my nan is against her and my grandad's wishes in a care home. Care workers have a choice whether to be vaccinated or not. She has no choice but to be there.

    Throughout the pandemic my nan wouldn't let anyone into her home apart from essential people whom she'd keep a distance from, until after the vaccines were rolled out. Now she's compelled to be in a home with people who are potentially unvaccinated putting her life at risk?

    If care workers don't give enough of a shit about the people they're caring for that they will get vaccinated to protect them, then I don't think they should be in the care sector.
    I realise that we are dealing with probabilities here but vaccinated people can still pass the virus on. I know you don't like unvaccinated people - are you letting this feeling overrule logic? Just sayin'.
    I think you have hit on something here. The situation has changed from when these rules were first thought of. At that time it was thought that vaccine would grant immunity. It doesn't. As an alternative it was thought that it significantly reduced the risk of the virus being passed on because you would have a lower viral load. I do not think, with Delta, that there is any compelling evidence of that. What the vaccines do is reduce the risk to the person vaccinated and all sensible people should be vaccinated as a result.

    But can we actually say that you being vaccinated makes someone else safer? I am not sure. Maybe. Those who are not vaccinated are, I think, still more likely to become infected and therefore more likely, statistically, to infect others. Whether that risk is both robust and material needs looked at again.
    There is evidence that:

    - The chance of a selected vaccinated person becoming infected (and thus able to carry the virus) is far lower than that of a selected unvaccinated person (if you don't catch it, you can't pass it on)
    - The viral load reaches equivalent levels early on, but drops away significantly faster (remains at infectious levels about 60% as long)
    - At an equivalent viral load, vaccinated people are noticeably less infectious than unvaccinated people.

    This doesn't mean that vaccinated people cannot pass on the virus, but it does mean that they are a lot less likely to do so. You're looking at an order of magnitude drop in likelihood to infect someone between unvaccinated and vaccinated at a period of endemic (or, indeed, epidemic) virus levels.
    That's also my understanding. Being vaccinated makes you far less likely to catch Delta, and far less likely to pass it on or be seriously ill if you do.

    That's fact, isn't it? Or is it still in play as a debating point?
    No it is absolutely not a fact. What it does do is stop vulnerable people (include obese in that), getting to the danger phase of the virus, by how many we will know much more at the end of the winter.
    You think it has no effect whatsoever on non-vulnerable people?

    Logically, if it helps people clear the virus faster by giving their immune system a head start, this would also benefit everyone else. I.e. the same effect that prevents a vulnerable person from getting seriously ill will also reduce the amount of time that a non-vulnerable person will be infectious. Despite the difficulty of controlling for very different levels of social restrictions, the data seems to confirm this.
    The best way of giving your immune system a head start is being fit and healthy, at a correct weight. I knocked this off in a day, this is the message the government has missed. They also inexplicably torpedoed the Valneva vaccine, which is much more like the traditional flu vaccine, which the MRNA stuff really isn't.

    The balance for a fit and healthy person is what is likely to cause most harm the virus or the vaccine. Plus if you have immunity, why take the injections?
    You haven't really addressed my point. The Oxford vaccine isn't based on mRNA technology so we can set aside any objections to that.

    In order to tilt the balance for a fit and healthy person against taking the vaccine, are you having to rely on undiscovered future problems emerging rather than the known short-term risks like potential blood clots or myocarditis?

    I'm against vaccine mandates and do think it should be a personal decision. I am also sympathetic to fit and healthy people who would rather take their chances with the virus (as long as they are responsible and don't recklessly spread it) but it isn't a rational calculation to choose that over the vaccine.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,125

    kinabalu said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Farooq said:

    DougSeal said:

    Farooq said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Labour rules out backing an Independent cross-party candidate in North Shropshire a la Martin Bell in Tatton 1997 and will instead stand a Labour candidate

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59167967

    Proof if it were needed that Starmer likes to play by the rules that are stacked against him. He has no political nous, he has no killer instinct.

    Imagine, Mr Starmer, every night on the ItV, BBC and Sky News bulletins, corresponds would be following around an "anti- Conservative- sleaze" candidate. How much would that sort of advertising on billboards cost?

    BJO is right, Mr Starmer you are a fool.
    TBF finding a latter day Martin Bell the whole opposition could get behind is no easy task. Who would you suggest? I think Man U need Marcus Rashford more than Parliament does, at least for the rest of this season. Anyone else?
    Olivia Colman
    "Ms Colman, calling on behalf of the Labour, Lib Dem and Green parties. We've had a meeting. I know your Oscar winning career is currently approaching the stratosphere, and you could literally walk into any role you wanted, but I have an offer you simply CAN'T refuse..."
    How about David Mitchell then? I would drown a bagful of kittens to see him on either side of the dispatch box at PMQs.
    I have him in the Covid Dead Pool and still want to win.
    I have HM the Q so if she goes with not a trace of Covid that's it, I'm out. Metaphorical ticket screwed up and tossed onto bookie's floor, head shake, mumble mumble mumble, wonder if the offie's still open ... just like the old days.
    On the other hand if she goes with it, will we even find out that's what she had?
    We will because I'll write to the Palace and explain I need to know in order to win a prestigious internet tipping competition.
  • MattW said:

    RobD said:

    Sek Kathiresan MD
    @skathire
    ·
    55m
    Wow, antiviral pill taken within 3d of symptoms COVID: 89% reduction in hospitalization or death

    Another
    @pfizer
    home run!

    Protease inhibitor originally developed for SARS-Cov1 in 2003 and now repurposed!

    If correct, that is the kind of result that stops the trial and turns it into an emergency approved treatment....
    It's already been recommended that they stop and seek approval immediately.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/05/health/pfizer-covid-pill.html
    Checked.

    US Gov has a contract for 1.7m (5 day I think) treatment courses. At $700 each.

    UK has half a million courses. Price not revealed.
    https://inews.co.uk/news/sajid-javid-press-conference-covid-drugs-molnupiravir-available-nhs-avoid-plan-b-restrictions-winter-1259879

    Not sure what EU are doing.
    250k of this one, 480k of the one that was approved yesterday: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59178291
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,246

    IshmaelZ said:

    kamski said:

    RobD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    This could be the next big story.

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-news/tens-thousands-unvaccinated-care-workers-22073061

    Does anyone actually agree with this?

    Yes.

    Following a fall earlier this year my nan is against her and my grandad's wishes in a care home. Care workers have a choice whether to be vaccinated or not. She has no choice but to be there.

    Throughout the pandemic my nan wouldn't let anyone into her home apart from essential people whom she'd keep a distance from, until after the vaccines were rolled out. Now she's compelled to be in a home with people who are potentially unvaccinated putting her life at risk?

    If care workers don't give enough of a shit about the people they're caring for that they will get vaccinated to protect them, then I don't think they should be in the care sector.
    I realise that we are dealing with probabilities here but vaccinated people can still pass the virus on. I know you don't like unvaccinated people - are you letting this feeling overrule logic? Just sayin'.
    I think you have hit on something here. The situation has changed from when these rules were first thought of. At that time it was thought that vaccine would grant immunity. It doesn't. As an alternative it was thought that it significantly reduced the risk of the virus being passed on because you would have a lower viral load. I do not think, with Delta, that there is any compelling evidence of that. What the vaccines do is reduce the risk to the person vaccinated and all sensible people should be vaccinated as a result.

    But can we actually say that you being vaccinated makes someone else safer? I am not sure. Maybe. Those who are not vaccinated are, I think, still more likely to become infected and therefore more likely, statistically, to infect others. Whether that risk is both robust and material needs looked at again.
    There is evidence that:

    - The chance of a selected vaccinated person becoming infected (and thus able to carry the virus) is far lower than that of a selected unvaccinated person (if you don't catch it, you can't pass it on)
    - The viral load reaches equivalent levels early on, but drops away significantly faster (remains at infectious levels about 60% as long)
    - At an equivalent viral load, vaccinated people are noticeably less infectious than unvaccinated people.

    This doesn't mean that vaccinated people cannot pass on the virus, but it does mean that they are a lot less likely to do so. You're looking at an order of magnitude drop in likelihood to infect someone between unvaccinated and vaccinated at a period of endemic (or, indeed, epidemic) virus levels.
    That's also my understanding. Being vaccinated makes you far less likely to catch Delta, and far less likely to pass it on or be seriously ill if you do.

    That's fact, isn't it? Or is it still in play as a debating point?
    No it is absolutely not a fact. What it does do is stop vulnerable people (include obese in that), getting to the danger phase of the virus, by how many we will know much more at the end of the winter.
    Yes it is. Why not bugger off and troll somewhere else?

    Or repeat your claim that yougov lack credibility.

    https://patient.info/news-and-features/does-being-vaccinated-against-covid-19-stop-you-getting-infected
    I'm confused. That article doesn't say anything about the NCIP virus.
    There's a virus going round in car parks?
    With a number of levels of severity
    It's not clear what's driving the outbreak
    With many barriers to exiting the situation...
    But it's stacking up to be a multi-level problem.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,482

    IshmaelZ said:

    kamski said:

    RobD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    This could be the next big story.

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-news/tens-thousands-unvaccinated-care-workers-22073061

    Does anyone actually agree with this?

    Yes.

    Following a fall earlier this year my nan is against her and my grandad's wishes in a care home. Care workers have a choice whether to be vaccinated or not. She has no choice but to be there.

    Throughout the pandemic my nan wouldn't let anyone into her home apart from essential people whom she'd keep a distance from, until after the vaccines were rolled out. Now she's compelled to be in a home with people who are potentially unvaccinated putting her life at risk?

    If care workers don't give enough of a shit about the people they're caring for that they will get vaccinated to protect them, then I don't think they should be in the care sector.
    I realise that we are dealing with probabilities here but vaccinated people can still pass the virus on. I know you don't like unvaccinated people - are you letting this feeling overrule logic? Just sayin'.
    I think you have hit on something here. The situation has changed from when these rules were first thought of. At that time it was thought that vaccine would grant immunity. It doesn't. As an alternative it was thought that it significantly reduced the risk of the virus being passed on because you would have a lower viral load. I do not think, with Delta, that there is any compelling evidence of that. What the vaccines do is reduce the risk to the person vaccinated and all sensible people should be vaccinated as a result.

    But can we actually say that you being vaccinated makes someone else safer? I am not sure. Maybe. Those who are not vaccinated are, I think, still more likely to become infected and therefore more likely, statistically, to infect others. Whether that risk is both robust and material needs looked at again.
    There is evidence that:

    - The chance of a selected vaccinated person becoming infected (and thus able to carry the virus) is far lower than that of a selected unvaccinated person (if you don't catch it, you can't pass it on)
    - The viral load reaches equivalent levels early on, but drops away significantly faster (remains at infectious levels about 60% as long)
    - At an equivalent viral load, vaccinated people are noticeably less infectious than unvaccinated people.

    This doesn't mean that vaccinated people cannot pass on the virus, but it does mean that they are a lot less likely to do so. You're looking at an order of magnitude drop in likelihood to infect someone between unvaccinated and vaccinated at a period of endemic (or, indeed, epidemic) virus levels.
    That's also my understanding. Being vaccinated makes you far less likely to catch Delta, and far less likely to pass it on or be seriously ill if you do.

    That's fact, isn't it? Or is it still in play as a debating point?
    No it is absolutely not a fact. What it does do is stop vulnerable people (include obese in that), getting to the danger phase of the virus, by how many we will know much more at the end of the winter.
    Yes it is. Why not bugger off and troll somewhere else?

    Or repeat your claim that yougov lack credibility.

    https://patient.info/news-and-features/does-being-vaccinated-against-covid-19-stop-you-getting-infected
    I'm confused. That article doesn't say anything about the NCIP virus.
    There's a virus going round in car parks?
    With a number of levels of severity
    It's not clear what's driving the outbreak
    Its a multi-storied issue.
    Top medics predict a bumpy road ahead
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,617

    Sir Keir Strainface
    Sir Keir Stroopwaffel
    Sir Keir Stramadol
    Sir Keir Straitlaced

    Which best captures the ineffable tediousness of SKS?

    Suckier Starmer.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,001
    ONS survey is out - and supports the peak in infections being around 20 October.

    Infections falling, especially in secondary-age children.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Sir Keir Strainface
    Sir Keir Stroopwaffel
    Sir Keir Stramadol
    Sir Keir Straitlaced

    Which best captures the ineffable tediousness of SKS?

    Mogadon Man works for me. His much lauded guardian piece looks like a savaging by a dead sheep.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,815
    edited November 2021
    tlg86 said:


    Michael Vaughan
    @MichaelVaughan
    Not many English people live in London.. I need to learn a new language..
    10:23 AM · Oct 15, 2010·Twitter for iPhone

    Oh good, the outrage bus has moved onto Vaughn now, and started trawling 11 year old tweets...
    Vaughan's getting a taste of his own medicine (and he wasn't 18 when he wrote that Tweet)...

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/sportsnews/article-9647413/Michael-Vaughan-STAGGERED-ECB-didnt-diligence-emergence-Ollie-Robinsons-tweets.html

    'A few weeks ago, surely England would have known that Ollie Robinson was in their thoughts. You have to go through everything. These days on Twitter, social media it's all there for everyone to see.

    'You can't suddenly - why didn't they delete it - that's irrelevant. He tweeted what he had tweeted in 2012.

    'Yes, he was 18 but I do find that staggering that the ECB with everything, the resources that they have in their operation, they don't go through everything about every player that you pick just to make sure you have got everything covered.'
    More to the point, it is relevant to the question of character raised by Rafiq's employment, racism and bullying claims, Yorkshire's response to it and Vaughan's own article today. He is one of my favourite players and favourite captain so I take zero pleasure in finding out more about it, but there is far more justification in going through old tweets here than there was in the Ollie Robinson case.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071

    There is another parliamentary by-election - to the House of Lords.

    Viscount Simon died on 15 August 2021 and was a Labour elected hereditary peer elected by the whole house. Thus the electorate for this by-election is the whole house of lords.

    It is expected that that the vacancy will be filled by a hereditary peer who will sit as a Labour peer.

    There are three candidates, Lord Biddulph (Conservative), Lord Hacking (Labour), Lord Kennet (Labour).

    Further details, including candidates' statements https://www.parliament.uk/globalassets/documents/lords-information-office/2021/notice-with-candidates-list-simon.pdf

    We shall never beat the by election to replace Lord Avebury. 7 candidates but only eligible voters.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    ONS survey is out - and supports the peak in infections being around 20 October.

    Infections falling, especially in secondary-age children.

    England 1-in-50
    Wales 1-in-40
    NI 1-in-65
    Scotland (the greatest nation on earth) 1-in-80
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926

    ONS survey is out - and supports the peak in infections being around 20 October.

    Infections falling, especially in secondary-age children.

    Incidence amongst the oldest cohort still as flat as a pancake. So no evidence there of the effectivity of the vaccines dramatically fading over a short timescale.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Farooq said:

    DougSeal said:

    Farooq said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Labour rules out backing an Independent cross-party candidate in North Shropshire a la Martin Bell in Tatton 1997 and will instead stand a Labour candidate

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59167967

    Proof if it were needed that Starmer likes to play by the rules that are stacked against him. He has no political nous, he has no killer instinct.

    Imagine, Mr Starmer, every night on the ItV, BBC and Sky News bulletins, corresponds would be following around an "anti- Conservative- sleaze" candidate. How much would that sort of advertising on billboards cost?

    BJO is right, Mr Starmer you are a fool.
    TBF finding a latter day Martin Bell the whole opposition could get behind is no easy task. Who would you suggest? I think Man U need Marcus Rashford more than Parliament does, at least for the rest of this season. Anyone else?
    Olivia Colman
    "Ms Colman, calling on behalf of the Labour, Lib Dem and Green parties. We've had a meeting. I know your Oscar winning career is currently approaching the stratosphere, and you could literally walk into any role you wanted, but I have an offer you simply CAN'T refuse..."
    How about David Mitchell then? I would drown a bagful of kittens to see him on either side of the dispatch box at PMQs.
    I have him in the Covid Dead Pool and still want to win.
    I have HM the Q so if she goes with not a trace of Covid that's it, I'm out. Metaphorical ticket screwed up and tossed onto bookie's floor, head shake, mumble mumble mumble, wonder if the offie's still open ... just like the old days.
    On the other hand if she goes with it, will we even find out that's what she had?
    We will because I'll write to the Palace and explain I need to know in order to win a prestigious internet tipping competition.
    Doesn't say much for the efficiency of COVID that there's still no winner
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    Sir Keir Strainface
    Sir Keir Stroopwaffel
    Sir Keir Stramadol
    Sir Keir Straitlaced

    Which best captures the ineffable tediousness of SKS?

    You're not a fan then?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,134
    kinabalu said:

    MattW said:

    kinabalu said:

    MattW said:

    DavidL said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    This could be the next big story.

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-news/tens-thousands-unvaccinated-care-workers-22073061

    Does anyone actually agree with this?

    Yes.

    Following a fall earlier this year my nan is against her and my grandad's wishes in a care home. Care workers have a choice whether to be vaccinated or not. She has no choice but to be there.

    Throughout the pandemic my nan wouldn't let anyone into her home apart from essential people whom she'd keep a distance from, until after the vaccines were rolled out. Now she's compelled to be in a home with people who are potentially unvaccinated putting her life at risk?

    If care workers don't give enough of a shit about the people they're caring for that they will get vaccinated to protect them, then I don't think they should be in the care sector.
    I realise that we are dealing with probabilities here but vaccinated people can still pass the virus on. I know you don't like unvaccinated people - are you letting this feeling overrule logic? Just sayin'.
    I think you have hit on something here. The situation has changed from when these rules were first thought of. At that time it was thought that vaccine would grant immunity. It doesn't. As an alternative it was thought that it significantly reduced the risk of the virus being passed on because you would have a lower viral load. I do not think, with Delta, that there is any compelling evidence of that. What the vaccines do is reduce the risk to the person vaccinated and all sensible people should be vaccinated as a result.

    But can we actually say that you being vaccinated makes someone else safer? I am not sure. Maybe. Those who are not vaccinated are, I think, still more likely to become infected and therefore more likely, statistically, to infect others. Whether that risk is both robust and material needs looked at again.
    There is evidence that:

    - The chance of a selected vaccinated person becoming infected (and thus able to carry the virus) is far lower than that of a selected unvaccinated person (if you don't catch it, you can't pass it on)
    - The viral load reaches equivalent levels early on, but drops away significantly faster (remains at infectious levels about 60% as long)
    - At an equivalent viral load, vaccinated people are noticeably less infectious than unvaccinated people.

    This doesn't mean that vaccinated people cannot pass on the virus, but it does mean that they are a lot less likely to do so. You're looking at an order of magnitude drop in likelihood to infect someone between unvaccinated and vaccinated at a period of endemic (or, indeed, epidemic) virus levels.
    Away with your Bad Facts*.

    *I was told at a company seminar on er... modern social mores that some things are Bad Facts and should not be mentioned, since they upset various groups.
    So give me a Bad Fact.
    Yes, come on, let's hear one.
    Depends if we are being serious or flippant. All of these I suspect betray opinions.

    My current favourite Bad Fact to drop into a quiet seminar where everybody shares the same prejudices, to create general and vigorous debate would perhaps be:

    "Most trans-men still have cervixes. Should they be allowed into woman only spaces?"


    or to point out the number of places where it was only the intervention of the British or other European Empires that stopped slavery.

    Zanzibar in 1896 was I believe one. As was the North African slave trade by Barbary Pirates stopped at around the same time.
    It's good to challenge orthodoxy with facts and evidence and reason. If an orthodoxy can't handle this it ought to be on its way out. However I have yet to come across a fact - in the true sense of the word - that cannot be uttered in this country for fear of serious repercussions to the utterer. I hear lots of hinting and moaning that such is the case but it never seems to go beyond that. But it's possible I'm being blase and this is a genuine problem, hence my request for examples. Yours here are great but they're not quite what I had in mind. Your cervix point is an elegantly subversive little send-up of the gender debate, and on the empire that's quite a common observation, how "we" prevented some evil as well as perpetrating it. The old "it's complicated and wasn't all bad" line of argument is what that is. I'd say that IS an orthodoxy actually.
    That's all fair comment.

    The first is as you say being a little satirical of fixed position on an important debate. There are a lot of similar around certain other aspects of gender-based debate.

    I'm not sure if a fact "in the true sense of the word" is possible. I think serious risks to the utterer have been possible around various superinjunctions, sometimes imposed by "law".

    A good example in your terms might be talking about the Armenian Genocide whilst in Turkey.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926
    Alistair said:

    ONS survey is out - and supports the peak in infections being around 20 October.

    Infections falling, especially in secondary-age children.

    England 1-in-50
    Wales 1-in-40
    NI 1-in-65
    Scotland (the greatest nation on earth) 1-in-80
    Is that Scotland's new official name? ;)
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,001
    Estimated peak day for new infections: 18 October.

    Estimated peak day of prevalence: 23 October (always going to be delayed a few days after the peak of incidence, as this is the total of people who have been infected in the past 10-14 days or so).

    Estimated peak for prevalence of infection in secondary school-aged children: 21 October, at 9.09% (so peak day for incidence would likely have been around the 16th of October)

    Prevalence in secondary school children dropped by a third to 6.2% by the 30th of October.

    This is good news.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,189

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    This could be the next big story.

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-news/tens-thousands-unvaccinated-care-workers-22073061

    Does anyone actually agree with this?

    Yes.

    Following a fall earlier this year my nan is against her and my grandad's wishes in a care home. Care workers have a choice whether to be vaccinated or not. She has no choice but to be there.

    Throughout the pandemic my nan wouldn't let anyone into her home apart from essential people whom she'd keep a distance from, until after the vaccines were rolled out. Now she's compelled to be in a home with people who are potentially unvaccinated putting her life at risk?

    If care workers don't give enough of a shit about the people they're caring for that they will get vaccinated to protect them, then I don't think they should be in the care sector.
    I realise that we are dealing with probabilities here but vaccinated people can still pass the virus on. I know you don't like unvaccinated people - are you letting this feeling overrule logic? Just sayin'.
    I think you have hit on something here. The situation has changed from when these rules were first thought of. At that time it was thought that vaccine would grant immunity. It doesn't. As an alternative it was thought that it significantly reduced the risk of the virus being passed on because you would have a lower viral load. I do not think, with Delta, that there is any compelling evidence of that. What the vaccines do is reduce the risk to the person vaccinated and all sensible people should be vaccinated as a result.

    But can we actually say that you being vaccinated makes someone else safer? I am not sure. Maybe. Those who are not vaccinated are, I think, still more likely to become infected and therefore more likely, statistically, to infect others. Whether that risk is both robust and material needs looked at again.
    There is evidence that:

    - The chance of a selected vaccinated person becoming infected (and thus able to carry the virus) is far lower than that of a selected unvaccinated person (if you don't catch it, you can't pass it on)
    - The viral load reaches equivalent levels early on, but drops away significantly faster (remains at infectious levels about 60% as long)
    - At an equivalent viral load, vaccinated people are noticeably less infectious than unvaccinated people.

    This doesn't mean that vaccinated people cannot pass on the virus, but it does mean that they are a lot less likely to do so. You're looking at an order of magnitude drop in likelihood to infect someone between unvaccinated and vaccinated at a period of endemic (or, indeed, epidemic) virus levels.
    That's also my understanding. Being vaccinated makes you far less likely to catch Delta, and far less likely to pass it on or be seriously ill if you do.

    That's fact, isn't it? Or is it still in play as a debating point?
    No it is absolutely not a fact. What it does do is stop vulnerable people (include obese in that), getting to the danger phase of the virus, by how many we will know much more at the end of the winter.
    You think it has no effect whatsoever on non-vulnerable people?

    Logically, if it helps people clear the virus faster by giving their immune system a head start, this would also benefit everyone else. I.e. the same effect that prevents a vulnerable person from getting seriously ill will also reduce the amount of time that a non-vulnerable person will be infectious. Despite the difficulty of controlling for very different levels of social restrictions, the data seems to confirm this.
    The best way of giving your immune system a head start is being fit and healthy, at a correct weight. I knocked this off in a day, this is the message the government has missed. They also inexplicably torpedoed the Valneva vaccine, which is much more like the traditional flu vaccine, which the MRNA stuff really isn't.

    The balance for a fit and healthy person is what is likely to cause most harm the virus or the vaccine. Plus if you have immunity, why take the injections?
    I assume you have missed the stories of incredibly fit people in the their 20s and 30s who have died from this disease? I don't know what your game is here, but I suspect you are trolling. If not, read some actual science not derived from social media.
    Anecdotally, my wife's hospital right now has one person in his twenties, and one in his thirties (both unvaccinated) fighting for their lives with covid in intensive care, neither of them had any existing health issues, nor were they obese. This whole year there hasn't been a single person of any age admitted to this hospital because of complications from any kind of vaccine.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,549


    Michael Vaughan
    @MichaelVaughan
    Not many English people live in London.. I need to learn a new language..
    10:23 AM · Oct 15, 2010·Twitter for iPhone

    Is this the same Michael Vaughan who was recently lecturing people about using "batter" instead of "batsman"?
  • NB:

    "The inventor of the technology" - conspiracy theorists claim it was someone called Robert Malone, who's been active on Youtuber conspiracy sites.

    Robert Malone wrote a paper in 1989, showing that RNA transcribed into mouse muscle cells could be made to transcribe proteins.

    This wasn't "inventing the mRNA vaccine."

    He hasn't published much or done much research in the intervening 30 years. He does, though, go on right-wing media to present conspiracy theories.

    Jon Woolf (main developer of the development of the concept to synthesise mRNA in a laboratory to trigger production of a desired protein (cited over 630 times), and described in Nature as "the first step toward making a vaccine from mRNA"), Frédéric Martinon (developed a working mRNA vaccine in animals in 1993), and Katalin Karikó (researched the use of RNA-mediated immune activation, alongside Drew Weissman) have each got far more right to be described as "the inventor of the technology."

    So you are going the smear Robert Malone because he doesn't agree. Robert Malone was a key driver in the MRNA technology, not the only one but a key one. That is beyond question.

    If you listen to what he says it makes a lot of sense, certainly backed up by hard stats about which groups have the bad outcomes overwhelmingly through this virus. He will get certain platforms denied him but that is the modern world.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    ONS survey is out - and supports the peak in infections being around 20 October.

    Infections falling, especially in secondary-age children.

    England 1-in-50
    Wales 1-in-40
    NI 1-in-65
    Scotland (the greatest nation on earth) 1-in-80
    Is that Scotland's new official name? ;)
    I'm just reporting neutrally - no passive aggressive attempts at trying to say any one particular part of this nation is doing massively better than the others by me.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Sir Keir Stumblingblock
    Sir Keir Stopcock
    Sir Keir Stubtoe
    Sir Keir Sturgid
    Sir Keir Stuffshirt
    Sir Keir Stiffhead
    Sir Keir Strap-On
    Sir Keir Stoppedclock
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    NB:

    "The inventor of the technology" - conspiracy theorists claim it was someone called Robert Malone, who's been active on Youtuber conspiracy sites.

    Robert Malone wrote a paper in 1989, showing that RNA transcribed into mouse muscle cells could be made to transcribe proteins.

    This wasn't "inventing the mRNA vaccine."

    He hasn't published much or done much research in the intervening 30 years. He does, though, go on right-wing media to present conspiracy theories.

    Jon Woolf (main developer of the development of the concept to synthesise mRNA in a laboratory to trigger production of a desired protein (cited over 630 times), and described in Nature as "the first step toward making a vaccine from mRNA"), Frédéric Martinon (developed a working mRNA vaccine in animals in 1993), and Katalin Karikó (researched the use of RNA-mediated immune activation, alongside Drew Weissman) have each got far more right to be described as "the inventor of the technology."

    So you are going the smear Robert Malone because he doesn't agree. Robert Malone was a key driver in the MRNA technology, not the only one but a key one. That is beyond question.

    If you listen to what he says it makes a lot of sense, certainly backed up by hard stats about which groups have the bad outcomes overwhelmingly through this virus. He will get certain platforms denied him but that is the modern world.
    Tell me, how do you feel about Ivermectin?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,989
    Deputy Labour leader @AngelaRayner has written to the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards Kathryn Stone to ask whether the PM has broken the rules by failing to declare the value of his holiday in Spain last month in the MPs’ register of financial interests. https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1456574922717794305/photo/1
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,989
    Latest @YouGov @thetimes poll. In hindsight #Brexit right 39 (+1); wrong 48 (-1). Fwork 3-4.11. (ch since 12-13.10). https://bit.ly/3o31Ot4
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    DougSeal said:

    Sir Keir Strainface
    Sir Keir Stroopwaffel
    Sir Keir Stramadol
    Sir Keir Straitlaced

    Which best captures the ineffable tediousness of SKS?

    You're not a fan then?
    I am a liberal voter, who needs an electable Labour leader to oust the Tories. So, no.

    I am sure he is a decent human being, but he is in the wrong job.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,989
    ...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399
    MattW said:

    Selebian said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Farooq said:

    DougSeal said:

    Farooq said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Labour rules out backing an Independent cross-party candidate in North Shropshire a la Martin Bell in Tatton 1997 and will instead stand a Labour candidate

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59167967

    Proof if it were needed that Starmer likes to play by the rules that are stacked against him. He has no political nous, he has no killer instinct.

    Imagine, Mr Starmer, every night on the ItV, BBC and Sky News bulletins, corresponds would be following around an "anti- Conservative- sleaze" candidate. How much would that sort of advertising on billboards cost?

    BJO is right, Mr Starmer you are a fool.
    TBF finding a latter day Martin Bell the whole opposition could get behind is no easy task. Who would you suggest? I think Man U need Marcus Rashford more than Parliament does, at least for the rest of this season. Anyone else?
    Olivia Colman
    "Ms Colman, calling on behalf of the Labour, Lib Dem and Green parties. We've had a meeting. I know your Oscar winning career is currently approaching the stratosphere, and you could literally walk into any role you wanted, but I have an offer you simply CAN'T refuse..."
    How about David Mitchell then? I would drown a bagful of kittens to see him on either side of the dispatch box at PMQs.
    I have him in the Covid Dead Pool and still want to win.
    I have HM the Q so if she goes with not a trace of Covid that's it, I'm out. Metaphorical ticket screwed up and tossed onto bookie's floor, head shake, mumble mumble mumble, wonder if the offie's still open ... just like the old days.
    Thommo wins if LeadricT succumbs. That would be tragedy, comedy, pathos and bathos in one shocking event.
    Fair chance of a LeadricT persona getting banned and thus 'dying' (to be quickly reincarnated under a different but similar persona) within 28 days of a postive Covid test (or indeed 28 days of any day). Does that count?
    Are we looking for a new Clean Hands candidate?

    I quite like the sound of Martin Lewis. Ticks a lot of other boxes for an anti-Boris candidate. But he's s dotcom multi-mllionaire :smile: .

    Suspect HMQ is disbarred from standing?
    Has it been mentioned that Martin Lewis is an LSE Government graduate?
    And he isn't a proper dotcom millionaire as his website is useful for ordinary people and is a net positive for society.
  • Mr. kle4, how many eligible voters?
  • Alistair said:

    NB:

    "The inventor of the technology" - conspiracy theorists claim it was someone called Robert Malone, who's been active on Youtuber conspiracy sites.

    Robert Malone wrote a paper in 1989, showing that RNA transcribed into mouse muscle cells could be made to transcribe proteins.

    This wasn't "inventing the mRNA vaccine."

    He hasn't published much or done much research in the intervening 30 years. He does, though, go on right-wing media to present conspiracy theories.

    Jon Woolf (main developer of the development of the concept to synthesise mRNA in a laboratory to trigger production of a desired protein (cited over 630 times), and described in Nature as "the first step toward making a vaccine from mRNA"), Frédéric Martinon (developed a working mRNA vaccine in animals in 1993), and Katalin Karikó (researched the use of RNA-mediated immune activation, alongside Drew Weissman) have each got far more right to be described as "the inventor of the technology."

    So you are going the smear Robert Malone because he doesn't agree. Robert Malone was a key driver in the MRNA technology, not the only one but a key one. That is beyond question.

    If you listen to what he says it makes a lot of sense, certainly backed up by hard stats about which groups have the bad outcomes overwhelmingly through this virus. He will get certain platforms denied him but that is the modern world.
    Tell me, how do you feel about Ivermectin?
    Not for me, what about you. I am very careful about what goes in my body.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071

    HYUFD said:

    Tory MP for Bury South Christian Wakeford walked up to Owen Paterson yesterday and called him a cunt apparently
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1456573667731771399?s=20

    Is this the same Christian Wakeford who on top of his MPs role, stayed on for over 6 months as a councillor and on council committees earning an extra £22k per year and attending only one full council meeting and one council committee meeting over that time? Surely some mistake?
    You are allowed to be an MP and a Councillor. I don't see how either role gets appropriate attention if so, but you can.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,403

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    This could be the next big story.

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-news/tens-thousands-unvaccinated-care-workers-22073061

    Does anyone actually agree with this?

    Yes.

    Following a fall earlier this year my nan is against her and my grandad's wishes in a care home. Care workers have a choice whether to be vaccinated or not. She has no choice but to be there.

    Throughout the pandemic my nan wouldn't let anyone into her home apart from essential people whom she'd keep a distance from, until after the vaccines were rolled out. Now she's compelled to be in a home with people who are potentially unvaccinated putting her life at risk?

    If care workers don't give enough of a shit about the people they're caring for that they will get vaccinated to protect them, then I don't think they should be in the care sector.
    I realise that we are dealing with probabilities here but vaccinated people can still pass the virus on. I know you don't like unvaccinated people - are you letting this feeling overrule logic? Just sayin'.
    I think you have hit on something here. The situation has changed from when these rules were first thought of. At that time it was thought that vaccine would grant immunity. It doesn't. As an alternative it was thought that it significantly reduced the risk of the virus being passed on because you would have a lower viral load. I do not think, with Delta, that there is any compelling evidence of that. What the vaccines do is reduce the risk to the person vaccinated and all sensible people should be vaccinated as a result.

    But can we actually say that you being vaccinated makes someone else safer? I am not sure. Maybe. Those who are not vaccinated are, I think, still more likely to become infected and therefore more likely, statistically, to infect others. Whether that risk is both robust and material needs looked at again.
    There is evidence that:

    - The chance of a selected vaccinated person becoming infected (and thus able to carry the virus) is far lower than that of a selected unvaccinated person (if you don't catch it, you can't pass it on)
    - The viral load reaches equivalent levels early on, but drops away significantly faster (remains at infectious levels about 60% as long)
    - At an equivalent viral load, vaccinated people are noticeably less infectious than unvaccinated people.

    This doesn't mean that vaccinated people cannot pass on the virus, but it does mean that they are a lot less likely to do so. You're looking at an order of magnitude drop in likelihood to infect someone between unvaccinated and vaccinated at a period of endemic (or, indeed, epidemic) virus levels.
    That's also my understanding. Being vaccinated makes you far less likely to catch Delta, and far less likely to pass it on or be seriously ill if you do.

    That's fact, isn't it? Or is it still in play as a debating point?
    No it is absolutely not a fact. What it does do is stop vulnerable people (include obese in that), getting to the danger phase of the virus, by how many we will know much more at the end of the winter.
    You think it has no effect whatsoever on non-vulnerable people?

    Logically, if it helps people clear the virus faster by giving their immune system a head start, this would also benefit everyone else. I.e. the same effect that prevents a vulnerable person from getting seriously ill will also reduce the amount of time that a non-vulnerable person will be infectious. Despite the difficulty of controlling for very different levels of social restrictions, the data seems to confirm this.
    The best way of giving your immune system a head start is being fit and healthy, at a correct weight. I knocked this off in a day, this is the message the government has missed. They also inexplicably torpedoed the Valneva vaccine, which is much more like the traditional flu vaccine, which the MRNA stuff really isn't.

    The balance for a fit and healthy person is what is likely to cause most harm the virus or the vaccine. Plus if you have immunity, why take the injections?
    You haven't really addressed my point. The Oxford vaccine isn't based on mRNA technology so we can set aside any objections to that.

    In order to tilt the balance for a fit and healthy person against taking the vaccine, are you having to rely on undiscovered future problems emerging rather than the known short-term risks like potential blood clots or myocarditis?

    I'm against vaccine mandates and do think it should be a personal decision. I am also sympathetic to fit and healthy people who would rather take their chances with the virus (as long as they are responsible and don't recklessly spread it) but it isn't a rational calculation to choose that over the vaccine.
    I understand your point about vaccine mandates, but how do you feel about mask mandates?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,125
    IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Farooq said:

    DougSeal said:

    Farooq said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Labour rules out backing an Independent cross-party candidate in North Shropshire a la Martin Bell in Tatton 1997 and will instead stand a Labour candidate

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59167967

    Proof if it were needed that Starmer likes to play by the rules that are stacked against him. He has no political nous, he has no killer instinct.

    Imagine, Mr Starmer, every night on the ItV, BBC and Sky News bulletins, corresponds would be following around an "anti- Conservative- sleaze" candidate. How much would that sort of advertising on billboards cost?

    BJO is right, Mr Starmer you are a fool.
    TBF finding a latter day Martin Bell the whole opposition could get behind is no easy task. Who would you suggest? I think Man U need Marcus Rashford more than Parliament does, at least for the rest of this season. Anyone else?
    Olivia Colman
    "Ms Colman, calling on behalf of the Labour, Lib Dem and Green parties. We've had a meeting. I know your Oscar winning career is currently approaching the stratosphere, and you could literally walk into any role you wanted, but I have an offer you simply CAN'T refuse..."
    How about David Mitchell then? I would drown a bagful of kittens to see him on either side of the dispatch box at PMQs.
    I have him in the Covid Dead Pool and still want to win.
    I have HM the Q so if she goes with not a trace of Covid that's it, I'm out. Metaphorical ticket screwed up and tossed onto bookie's floor, head shake, mumble mumble mumble, wonder if the offie's still open ... just like the old days.
    On the other hand if she goes with it, will we even find out that's what she had?
    We will because I'll write to the Palace and explain I need to know in order to win a prestigious internet tipping competition.
    Doesn't say much for the efficiency of COVID that there's still no winner
    No, I'd have thought it would have been won by now. Pity it doesn't have a Euromillions style racking up of the Jackpot as time passes.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,001

    NB:

    "The inventor of the technology" - conspiracy theorists claim it was someone called Robert Malone, who's been active on Youtuber conspiracy sites.

    Robert Malone wrote a paper in 1989, showing that RNA transcribed into mouse muscle cells could be made to transcribe proteins.

    This wasn't "inventing the mRNA vaccine."

    He hasn't published much or done much research in the intervening 30 years. He does, though, go on right-wing media to present conspiracy theories.

    Jon Woolf (main developer of the development of the concept to synthesise mRNA in a laboratory to trigger production of a desired protein (cited over 630 times), and described in Nature as "the first step toward making a vaccine from mRNA"), Frédéric Martinon (developed a working mRNA vaccine in animals in 1993), and Katalin Karikó (researched the use of RNA-mediated immune activation, alongside Drew Weissman) have each got far more right to be described as "the inventor of the technology."

    So you are going the smear Robert Malone because he doesn't agree. Robert Malone was a key driver in the MRNA technology, not the only one but a key one. That is beyond question.

    If you listen to what he says it makes a lot of sense, certainly backed up by hard stats about which groups have the bad outcomes overwhelmingly through this virus. He will get certain platforms denied him but that is the modern world.
    Not a smear.

    Those are the facts of who developed what in mRNA vaccine technology.

    Jon Woolf is closest to being the father of mRNA technology. Martinon the pioneer of mRNA vaccines in animals. Karikó and Weissman the parents of mRNA vaccine technology in humans. Why should Malone be listened to more than them? What, precisely, has he done in the field of human mRNA vaccine technology?
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,001
    Alistair said:

    NB:

    "The inventor of the technology" - conspiracy theorists claim it was someone called Robert Malone, who's been active on Youtuber conspiracy sites.

    Robert Malone wrote a paper in 1989, showing that RNA transcribed into mouse muscle cells could be made to transcribe proteins.

    This wasn't "inventing the mRNA vaccine."

    He hasn't published much or done much research in the intervening 30 years. He does, though, go on right-wing media to present conspiracy theories.

    Jon Woolf (main developer of the development of the concept to synthesise mRNA in a laboratory to trigger production of a desired protein (cited over 630 times), and described in Nature as "the first step toward making a vaccine from mRNA"), Frédéric Martinon (developed a working mRNA vaccine in animals in 1993), and Katalin Karikó (researched the use of RNA-mediated immune activation, alongside Drew Weissman) have each got far more right to be described as "the inventor of the technology."

    So you are going the smear Robert Malone because he doesn't agree. Robert Malone was a key driver in the MRNA technology, not the only one but a key one. That is beyond question.

    If you listen to what he says it makes a lot of sense, certainly backed up by hard stats about which groups have the bad outcomes overwhelmingly through this virus. He will get certain platforms denied him but that is the modern world.
    Tell me, how do you feel about Ivermectin?
    Oh, God, don't trigger that!
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,403
    Alistair said:

    NB:

    "The inventor of the technology" - conspiracy theorists claim it was someone called Robert Malone, who's been active on Youtuber conspiracy sites.

    Robert Malone wrote a paper in 1989, showing that RNA transcribed into mouse muscle cells could be made to transcribe proteins.

    This wasn't "inventing the mRNA vaccine."

    He hasn't published much or done much research in the intervening 30 years. He does, though, go on right-wing media to present conspiracy theories.

    Jon Woolf (main developer of the development of the concept to synthesise mRNA in a laboratory to trigger production of a desired protein (cited over 630 times), and described in Nature as "the first step toward making a vaccine from mRNA"), Frédéric Martinon (developed a working mRNA vaccine in animals in 1993), and Katalin Karikó (researched the use of RNA-mediated immune activation, alongside Drew Weissman) have each got far more right to be described as "the inventor of the technology."

    So you are going the smear Robert Malone because he doesn't agree. Robert Malone was a key driver in the MRNA technology, not the only one but a key one. That is beyond question.

    If you listen to what he says it makes a lot of sense, certainly backed up by hard stats about which groups have the bad outcomes overwhelmingly through this virus. He will get certain platforms denied him but that is the modern world.
    Tell me, how do you feel about Ivermectin?
    Bloody brilliant...


    ... at worming...
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Sir Keir Startlecat
    Sir Keir Stunnedmullet
    Sir Keir Stuck-in-the-Mud
    Sir Keir Slumper
    Sir Keir Stoplight
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,134

    MattW said:

    RobD said:

    Sek Kathiresan MD
    @skathire
    ·
    55m
    Wow, antiviral pill taken within 3d of symptoms COVID: 89% reduction in hospitalization or death

    Another
    @pfizer
    home run!

    Protease inhibitor originally developed for SARS-Cov1 in 2003 and now repurposed!

    If correct, that is the kind of result that stops the trial and turns it into an emergency approved treatment....
    It's already been recommended that they stop and seek approval immediately.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/05/health/pfizer-covid-pill.html
    Checked.

    US Gov has a contract for 1.7m (5 day I think) treatment courses. At $700 each.

    UK has half a million courses. Price not revealed.
    https://inews.co.uk/news/sajid-javid-press-conference-covid-drugs-molnupiravir-available-nhs-avoid-plan-b-restrictions-winter-1259879

    Not sure what EU are doing.
    250k of this one, 480k of the one that was approved yesterday: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59178291
    Seeing how they are already making deals for heavily discounted supplies to developing countries, that's another nail in the coffin of the anti-IP movement.
  • Andy_JS said:


    Michael Vaughan
    @MichaelVaughan
    Not many English people live in London.. I need to learn a new language..
    10:23 AM · Oct 15, 2010·Twitter for iPhone

    Is this the same Michael Vaughan who was recently lecturing people about using "batter" instead of "batsman"?
    I know Michael Vaughan and the Michael Vaughan you hear on the radio, is the Michael Vaughan trying to please the BBC bosses, not the real Michael Vaughan, who is a decent guy who did wonders as England captain.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071

    Mr. kle4, how many eligible voters?

    3. Sorry.

    Iirc all voted for the same candidate, Viscount Thurso, who had been in the Lords, then MP, now Lords again.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424


    Michael Vaughan
    @MichaelVaughan
    Not many English people live in London.. I need to learn a new language..
    10:23 AM · Oct 15, 2010·Twitter for iPhone

    Well, he’s from Yorkshire. Definitions may be different, although I can usually understand the words he says.
  • kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tory MP for Bury South Christian Wakeford walked up to Owen Paterson yesterday and called him a cunt apparently
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1456573667731771399?s=20

    Is this the same Christian Wakeford who on top of his MPs role, stayed on for over 6 months as a councillor and on council committees earning an extra £22k per year and attending only one full council meeting and one council committee meeting over that time? Surely some mistake?
    You are allowed to be an MP and a Councillor. I don't see how either role gets appropriate attention if so, but you can.
    It may be allowed but it is poor form regardless and relevant to criticising other MPs for their behaviour around outside earnings.
  • Andy_JS said:


    Michael Vaughan
    @MichaelVaughan
    Not many English people live in London.. I need to learn a new language..
    10:23 AM · Oct 15, 2010·Twitter for iPhone

    Is this the same Michael Vaughan who was recently lecturing people about using "batter" instead of "batsman"?
    I know Michael Vaughan and the Michael Vaughan you hear on the radio, is the Michael Vaughan trying to please the BBC bosses, not the real Michael Vaughan, who is a decent guy who did wonders as England captain.

    With that character witness, I think we can take that as confirmation he should be cancelled then.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,011


    Michael Vaughan
    @MichaelVaughan
    Not many English people live in London.. I need to learn a new language..
    10:23 AM · Oct 15, 2010·Twitter for iPhone

    Well, he’s from Yorkshire. Definitions may be different, although I can usually understand the words he says.
    He's a Manc
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,907

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tory MP for Bury South Christian Wakeford walked up to Owen Paterson yesterday and called him a cunt apparently
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1456573667731771399?s=20

    Is this the same Christian Wakeford who on top of his MPs role, stayed on for over 6 months as a councillor and on council committees earning an extra £22k per year and attending only one full council meeting and one council committee meeting over that time? Surely some mistake?
    You are allowed to be an MP and a Councillor. I don't see how either role gets appropriate attention if so, but you can.
    It may be allowed but it is poor form regardless and relevant to criticising other MPs for their behaviour around outside earnings.
    Ben Bradley is not only MP for Mansfield but also leader of Nottinghamshire county council

  • Alex Wickham
    @alexwickham
    ·
    4h
    The government has made 36 U-turns in 23 months, POLITICO's
    @9andrewmcdonald
    has counted https://politi.co/3svJcDk
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,261
    RobD said:

    MattW said:

    Sek Kathiresan MD
    @skathire
    ·
    55m
    Wow, antiviral pill taken within 3d of symptoms COVID: 89% reduction in hospitalization or death

    Another
    @pfizer
    home run!

    Protease inhibitor originally developed for SARS-Cov1 in 2003 and now repurposed!

    If correct, that is the kind of result that stops the trial and turns it into an emergency approved treatment....
    So do we have an exclusive deal for the first 10 million of these? :smile:
    Only quarter of a million. But that's enough to cover all hospitalisations for a good while, which would be overkill.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/britain-secures-covid-19-antivirals-merck-pfizer-2021-10-20/
    That's incredibly good news. If it pans out as suggested that's the end of this fucking virus. That plus vaccines. It's done
  • HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tory MP for Bury South Christian Wakeford walked up to Owen Paterson yesterday and called him a cunt apparently
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1456573667731771399?s=20

    Is this the same Christian Wakeford who on top of his MPs role, stayed on for over 6 months as a councillor and on council committees earning an extra £22k per year and attending only one full council meeting and one council committee meeting over that time? Surely some mistake?
    You are allowed to be an MP and a Councillor. I don't see how either role gets appropriate attention if so, but you can.
    It may be allowed but it is poor form regardless and relevant to criticising other MPs for their behaviour around outside earnings.
    Ben Bradley is not only MP for Mansfield but also leader of Nottinghamshire county council
    Which is fecking ridiculous.

  • HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tory MP for Bury South Christian Wakeford walked up to Owen Paterson yesterday and called him a cunt apparently
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1456573667731771399?s=20

    Is this the same Christian Wakeford who on top of his MPs role, stayed on for over 6 months as a councillor and on council committees earning an extra £22k per year and attending only one full council meeting and one council committee meeting over that time? Surely some mistake?
    You are allowed to be an MP and a Councillor. I don't see how either role gets appropriate attention if so, but you can.
    It may be allowed but it is poor form regardless and relevant to criticising other MPs for their behaviour around outside earnings.
    Ben Bradley is not only MP for Mansfield but also leader of Nottinghamshire county council
    So which job does he consider worthy of being part time? Or is it both? Very disrespectful to the electorate imo.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,799

    Sir Keir Strainface
    Sir Keir Stroopwaffel
    Sir Keir Stramadol
    Sir Keir Straitlaced

    Which best captures the ineffable tediousness of SKS?

    Keith.
  • HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tory MP for Bury South Christian Wakeford walked up to Owen Paterson yesterday and called him a cunt apparently
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1456573667731771399?s=20

    Is this the same Christian Wakeford who on top of his MPs role, stayed on for over 6 months as a councillor and on council committees earning an extra £22k per year and attending only one full council meeting and one council committee meeting over that time? Surely some mistake?
    You are allowed to be an MP and a Councillor. I don't see how either role gets appropriate attention if so, but you can.
    It may be allowed but it is poor form regardless and relevant to criticising other MPs for their behaviour around outside earnings.
    Ben Bradley is not only MP for Mansfield but also leader of Nottinghamshire county council
    So which job does he consider worthy of being part time? Or is it both? Very disrespectful to the electorate imo.
    MP is a part time job. It really should have a part time salary.

    How else do you think Ministers can do anything while still being a full time MP?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,011
    MaxPB said:

    Sir Keir Strainface
    Sir Keir Stroopwaffel
    Sir Keir Stramadol
    Sir Keir Straitlaced

    Which best captures the ineffable tediousness of SKS?

    Keith.
    Keith (Scottish Gaelic: Baile Chèith, or Cèith Mhaol Rubha (archaic)) is a small town in the Moray council area in north east Scotland. It has a population of 4,734.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,617

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    This could be the next big story.

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-news/tens-thousands-unvaccinated-care-workers-22073061

    Does anyone actually agree with this?

    Yes.

    Following a fall earlier this year my nan is against her and my grandad's wishes in a care home. Care workers have a choice whether to be vaccinated or not. She has no choice but to be there.

    Throughout the pandemic my nan wouldn't let anyone into her home apart from essential people whom she'd keep a distance from, until after the vaccines were rolled out. Now she's compelled to be in a home with people who are potentially unvaccinated putting her life at risk?

    If care workers don't give enough of a shit about the people they're caring for that they will get vaccinated to protect them, then I don't think they should be in the care sector.
    I realise that we are dealing with probabilities here but vaccinated people can still pass the virus on. I know you don't like unvaccinated people - are you letting this feeling overrule logic? Just sayin'.
    I think you have hit on something here. The situation has changed from when these rules were first thought of. At that time it was thought that vaccine would grant immunity. It doesn't. As an alternative it was thought that it significantly reduced the risk of the virus being passed on because you would have a lower viral load. I do not think, with Delta, that there is any compelling evidence of that. What the vaccines do is reduce the risk to the person vaccinated and all sensible people should be vaccinated as a result.

    But can we actually say that you being vaccinated makes someone else safer? I am not sure. Maybe. Those who are not vaccinated are, I think, still more likely to become infected and therefore more likely, statistically, to infect others. Whether that risk is both robust and material needs looked at again.
    There is evidence that:

    - The chance of a selected vaccinated person becoming infected (and thus able to carry the virus) is far lower than that of a selected unvaccinated person (if you don't catch it, you can't pass it on)
    - The viral load reaches equivalent levels early on, but drops away significantly faster (remains at infectious levels about 60% as long)
    - At an equivalent viral load, vaccinated people are noticeably less infectious than unvaccinated people.

    This doesn't mean that vaccinated people cannot pass on the virus, but it does mean that they are a lot less likely to do so. You're looking at an order of magnitude drop in likelihood to infect someone between unvaccinated and vaccinated at a period of endemic (or, indeed, epidemic) virus levels.
    That's also my understanding. Being vaccinated makes you far less likely to catch Delta, and far less likely to pass it on or be seriously ill if you do.

    That's fact, isn't it? Or is it still in play as a debating point?
    No it is absolutely not a fact. What it does do is stop vulnerable people (include obese in that), getting to the danger phase of the virus, by how many we will know much more at the end of the winter.
    You think it has no effect whatsoever on non-vulnerable people?

    Logically, if it helps people clear the virus faster by giving their immune system a head start, this would also benefit everyone else. I.e. the same effect that prevents a vulnerable person from getting seriously ill will also reduce the amount of time that a non-vulnerable person will be infectious. Despite the difficulty of controlling for very different levels of social restrictions, the data seems to confirm this.
    The best way of giving your immune system a head start is being fit and healthy, at a correct weight. I knocked this off in a day, this is the message the government has missed. They also inexplicably torpedoed the Valneva vaccine, which is much more like the traditional flu vaccine, which the MRNA stuff really isn't.

    The balance for a fit and healthy person is what is likely to cause most harm the virus or the vaccine. Plus if you have immunity, why take the injections?
    You haven't really addressed my point. The Oxford vaccine isn't based on mRNA technology so we can set aside any objections to that.

    In order to tilt the balance for a fit and healthy person against taking the vaccine, are you having to rely on undiscovered future problems emerging rather than the known short-term risks like potential blood clots or myocarditis?

    I'm against vaccine mandates and do think it should be a personal decision. I am also sympathetic to fit and healthy people who would rather take their chances with the virus (as long as they are responsible and don't recklessly spread it) but it isn't a rational calculation to choose that over the vaccine.
    I understand your point about vaccine mandates, but how do you feel about mask mandates?
    I think we always had a fairly sane approach to them here, unlike countries that mandated them outdoors as well.
  • Jim Pickard
    @PickardJE
    ·
    2h
    a Lib Dem official says there won't be a North Shropshire unity candidate:

    "there was a scintilla of examining..an independent unity candidate of a Martin Bell nature..compliance rules & electoral legislation has changed dramatically since then making it virtually impossible"
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,643
    Curious to see Starmer critics reduced to silly name calling.

    This thread is a good answer to the question if you are young, smart and want to leave a positive mark on the world do you go into politics or science?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,549

    Andy_JS said:


    Michael Vaughan
    @MichaelVaughan
    Not many English people live in London.. I need to learn a new language..
    10:23 AM · Oct 15, 2010·Twitter for iPhone

    Is this the same Michael Vaughan who was recently lecturing people about using "batter" instead of "batsman"?
    I know Michael Vaughan and the Michael Vaughan you hear on the radio, is the Michael Vaughan trying to please the BBC bosses, not the real Michael Vaughan, who is a decent guy who did wonders as England captain.

    Glad to hear it.
  • Alistair said:

    NB:

    "The inventor of the technology" - conspiracy theorists claim it was someone called Robert Malone, who's been active on Youtuber conspiracy sites.

    Robert Malone wrote a paper in 1989, showing that RNA transcribed into mouse muscle cells could be made to transcribe proteins.

    This wasn't "inventing the mRNA vaccine."

    He hasn't published much or done much research in the intervening 30 years. He does, though, go on right-wing media to present conspiracy theories.

    Jon Woolf (main developer of the development of the concept to synthesise mRNA in a laboratory to trigger production of a desired protein (cited over 630 times), and described in Nature as "the first step toward making a vaccine from mRNA"), Frédéric Martinon (developed a working mRNA vaccine in animals in 1993), and Katalin Karikó (researched the use of RNA-mediated immune activation, alongside Drew Weissman) have each got far more right to be described as "the inventor of the technology."

    So you are going the smear Robert Malone because he doesn't agree. Robert Malone was a key driver in the MRNA technology, not the only one but a key one. That is beyond question.

    If you listen to what he says it makes a lot of sense, certainly backed up by hard stats about which groups have the bad outcomes overwhelmingly through this virus. He will get certain platforms denied him but that is the modern world.
    Tell me, how do you feel about Ivermectin?
    Bloody brilliant...


    ... at worming...

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    This could be the next big story.

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-news/tens-thousands-unvaccinated-care-workers-22073061

    Does anyone actually agree with this?

    Yes.

    Following a fall earlier this year my nan is against her and my grandad's wishes in a care home. Care workers have a choice whether to be vaccinated or not. She has no choice but to be there.

    Throughout the pandemic my nan wouldn't let anyone into her home apart from essential people whom she'd keep a distance from, until after the vaccines were rolled out. Now she's compelled to be in a home with people who are potentially unvaccinated putting her life at risk?

    If care workers don't give enough of a shit about the people they're caring for that they will get vaccinated to protect them, then I don't think they should be in the care sector.
    I realise that we are dealing with probabilities here but vaccinated people can still pass the virus on. I know you don't like unvaccinated people - are you letting this feeling overrule logic? Just sayin'.
    I think you have hit on something here. The situation has changed from when these rules were first thought of. At that time it was thought that vaccine would grant immunity. It doesn't. As an alternative it was thought that it significantly reduced the risk of the virus being passed on because you would have a lower viral load. I do not think, with Delta, that there is any compelling evidence of that. What the vaccines do is reduce the risk to the person vaccinated and all sensible people should be vaccinated as a result.

    But can we actually say that you being vaccinated makes someone else safer? I am not sure. Maybe. Those who are not vaccinated are, I think, still more likely to become infected and therefore more likely, statistically, to infect others. Whether that risk is both robust and material needs looked at again.
    There is evidence that:

    - The chance of a selected vaccinated person becoming infected (and thus able to carry the virus) is far lower than that of a selected unvaccinated person (if you don't catch it, you can't pass it on)
    - The viral load reaches equivalent levels early on, but drops away significantly faster (remains at infectious levels about 60% as long)
    - At an equivalent viral load, vaccinated people are noticeably less infectious than unvaccinated people.

    This doesn't mean that vaccinated people cannot pass on the virus, but it does mean that they are a lot less likely to do so. You're looking at an order of magnitude drop in likelihood to infect someone between unvaccinated and vaccinated at a period of endemic (or, indeed, epidemic) virus levels.
    That's also my understanding. Being vaccinated makes you far less likely to catch Delta, and far less likely to pass it on or be seriously ill if you do.

    That's fact, isn't it? Or is it still in play as a debating point?
    No it is absolutely not a fact. What it does do is stop vulnerable people (include obese in that), getting to the danger phase of the virus, by how many we will know much more at the end of the winter.
    You think it has no effect whatsoever on non-vulnerable people?

    Logically, if it helps people clear the virus faster by giving their immune system a head start, this would also benefit everyone else. I.e. the same effect that prevents a vulnerable person from getting seriously ill will also reduce the amount of time that a non-vulnerable person will be infectious. Despite the difficulty of controlling for very different levels of social restrictions, the data seems to confirm this.
    The best way of giving your immune system a head start is being fit and healthy, at a correct weight. I knocked this off in a day, this is the message the government has missed. They also inexplicably torpedoed the Valneva vaccine, which is much more like the traditional flu vaccine, which the MRNA stuff really isn't.

    The balance for a fit and healthy person is what is likely to cause most harm the virus or the vaccine. Plus if you have immunity, why take the injections?
    You haven't really addressed my point. The Oxford vaccine isn't based on mRNA technology so we can set aside any objections to that.

    In order to tilt the balance for a fit and healthy person against taking the vaccine, are you having to rely on undiscovered future problems emerging rather than the known short-term risks like potential blood clots or myocarditis?

    I'm against vaccine mandates and do think it should be a personal decision. I am also sympathetic to fit and healthy people who would rather take their chances with the virus (as long as they are responsible and don't recklessly spread it) but it isn't a rational calculation to choose that over the vaccine.
    The AZ Vaccine does the same thing in a different way, it also isn't a flu type vaccine. I agree about reckless spread but don't agree about rational calculation.

    For the avoidance of doubt if you are fat, very elderly or carrying existing serious illness you would be a fool not to take the injections.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tory MP for Bury South Christian Wakeford walked up to Owen Paterson yesterday and called him a cunt apparently
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1456573667731771399?s=20

    Is this the same Christian Wakeford who on top of his MPs role, stayed on for over 6 months as a councillor and on council committees earning an extra £22k per year and attending only one full council meeting and one council committee meeting over that time? Surely some mistake?
    You are allowed to be an MP and a Councillor. I don't see how either role gets appropriate attention if so, but you can.
    It may be allowed but it is poor form regardless and relevant to criticising other MPs for their behaviour around outside earnings.
    Ben Bradley is not only MP for Mansfield but also leader of Nottinghamshire county council
    So which job does he consider worthy of being part time? Or is it both? Very disrespectful to the electorate imo.
    That applies even more so to Dan Jarvis, who is now "forced" to take his mayoral salary...

    https://order-order.com/2021/02/17/barnsley-mp-admits-hes-gone-part-time/

    Although he is standing down at the next election:

    https://order-order.com/2021/09/20/dan-jarvis-to-stand-down-as-south-yorkshire-mayor/
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,403

    Alistair said:

    NB:

    "The inventor of the technology" - conspiracy theorists claim it was someone called Robert Malone, who's been active on Youtuber conspiracy sites.

    Robert Malone wrote a paper in 1989, showing that RNA transcribed into mouse muscle cells could be made to transcribe proteins.

    This wasn't "inventing the mRNA vaccine."

    He hasn't published much or done much research in the intervening 30 years. He does, though, go on right-wing media to present conspiracy theories.

    Jon Woolf (main developer of the development of the concept to synthesise mRNA in a laboratory to trigger production of a desired protein (cited over 630 times), and described in Nature as "the first step toward making a vaccine from mRNA"), Frédéric Martinon (developed a working mRNA vaccine in animals in 1993), and Katalin Karikó (researched the use of RNA-mediated immune activation, alongside Drew Weissman) have each got far more right to be described as "the inventor of the technology."

    So you are going the smear Robert Malone because he doesn't agree. Robert Malone was a key driver in the MRNA technology, not the only one but a key one. That is beyond question.

    If you listen to what he says it makes a lot of sense, certainly backed up by hard stats about which groups have the bad outcomes overwhelmingly through this virus. He will get certain platforms denied him but that is the modern world.
    Tell me, how do you feel about Ivermectin?
    Bloody brilliant...


    ... at worming...

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    This could be the next big story.

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-news/tens-thousands-unvaccinated-care-workers-22073061

    Does anyone actually agree with this?

    Yes.

    Following a fall earlier this year my nan is against her and my grandad's wishes in a care home. Care workers have a choice whether to be vaccinated or not. She has no choice but to be there.

    Throughout the pandemic my nan wouldn't let anyone into her home apart from essential people whom she'd keep a distance from, until after the vaccines were rolled out. Now she's compelled to be in a home with people who are potentially unvaccinated putting her life at risk?

    If care workers don't give enough of a shit about the people they're caring for that they will get vaccinated to protect them, then I don't think they should be in the care sector.
    I realise that we are dealing with probabilities here but vaccinated people can still pass the virus on. I know you don't like unvaccinated people - are you letting this feeling overrule logic? Just sayin'.
    I think you have hit on something here. The situation has changed from when these rules were first thought of. At that time it was thought that vaccine would grant immunity. It doesn't. As an alternative it was thought that it significantly reduced the risk of the virus being passed on because you would have a lower viral load. I do not think, with Delta, that there is any compelling evidence of that. What the vaccines do is reduce the risk to the person vaccinated and all sensible people should be vaccinated as a result.

    But can we actually say that you being vaccinated makes someone else safer? I am not sure. Maybe. Those who are not vaccinated are, I think, still more likely to become infected and therefore more likely, statistically, to infect others. Whether that risk is both robust and material needs looked at again.
    There is evidence that:

    - The chance of a selected vaccinated person becoming infected (and thus able to carry the virus) is far lower than that of a selected unvaccinated person (if you don't catch it, you can't pass it on)
    - The viral load reaches equivalent levels early on, but drops away significantly faster (remains at infectious levels about 60% as long)
    - At an equivalent viral load, vaccinated people are noticeably less infectious than unvaccinated people.

    This doesn't mean that vaccinated people cannot pass on the virus, but it does mean that they are a lot less likely to do so. You're looking at an order of magnitude drop in likelihood to infect someone between unvaccinated and vaccinated at a period of endemic (or, indeed, epidemic) virus levels.
    That's also my understanding. Being vaccinated makes you far less likely to catch Delta, and far less likely to pass it on or be seriously ill if you do.

    That's fact, isn't it? Or is it still in play as a debating point?
    No it is absolutely not a fact. What it does do is stop vulnerable people (include obese in that), getting to the danger phase of the virus, by how many we will know much more at the end of the winter.
    You think it has no effect whatsoever on non-vulnerable people?

    Logically, if it helps people clear the virus faster by giving their immune system a head start, this would also benefit everyone else. I.e. the same effect that prevents a vulnerable person from getting seriously ill will also reduce the amount of time that a non-vulnerable person will be infectious. Despite the difficulty of controlling for very different levels of social restrictions, the data seems to confirm this.
    The best way of giving your immune system a head start is being fit and healthy, at a correct weight. I knocked this off in a day, this is the message the government has missed. They also inexplicably torpedoed the Valneva vaccine, which is much more like the traditional flu vaccine, which the MRNA stuff really isn't.

    The balance for a fit and healthy person is what is likely to cause most harm the virus or the vaccine. Plus if you have immunity, why take the injections?
    You haven't really addressed my point. The Oxford vaccine isn't based on mRNA technology so we can set aside any objections to that.

    In order to tilt the balance for a fit and healthy person against taking the vaccine, are you having to rely on undiscovered future problems emerging rather than the known short-term risks like potential blood clots or myocarditis?

    I'm against vaccine mandates and do think it should be a personal decision. I am also sympathetic to fit and healthy people who would rather take their chances with the virus (as long as they are responsible and don't recklessly spread it) but it isn't a rational calculation to choose that over the vaccine.
    The AZ Vaccine does the same thing in a different way, it also isn't a flu type vaccine. I agree about reckless spread but don't agree about rational calculation.

    For the avoidance of doubt if you are fat, very elderly or carrying existing serious illness you would be a fool not to take the injections.
    Healthy people in their 20s have died from this. Why the feck wouldn't you take the free vaccination that might well save your life?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    MaxPB said:

    Sir Keir Strainface
    Sir Keir Stroopwaffel
    Sir Keir Stramadol
    Sir Keir Straitlaced

    Which best captures the ineffable tediousness of SKS?

    Keith.
    I think that’s right.
    Although I acknowledge it relies on a latent snobbery toward the lower middle classes.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,482

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tory MP for Bury South Christian Wakeford walked up to Owen Paterson yesterday and called him a cunt apparently
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1456573667731771399?s=20

    Is this the same Christian Wakeford who on top of his MPs role, stayed on for over 6 months as a councillor and on council committees earning an extra £22k per year and attending only one full council meeting and one council committee meeting over that time? Surely some mistake?
    You are allowed to be an MP and a Councillor. I don't see how either role gets appropriate attention if so, but you can.
    It may be allowed but it is poor form regardless and relevant to criticising other MPs for their behaviour around outside earnings.
    Ben Bradley is not only MP for Mansfield but also leader of Nottinghamshire county council
    So which job does he consider worthy of being part time? Or is it both? Very disrespectful to the electorate imo.
    Oh, I dunno.

    Reminds me of an old joke:

    First prize is having Ben Bradley lead your council part-time.

    Second prize is having Ben Bradley lead your council full-time.
This discussion has been closed.